PDA

View Full Version : Reds have 3 ranked in Top 100



Red Swagger
01-29-2013, 11:00 PM
11. Billy Hamilton
51. Robert Stephenson
66. Tony Cingrani

No Corcino is a bit of a surprise, you could also make a case for Jesse Winker

Salukifan2
01-29-2013, 11:07 PM
I'm a little surprised myself that Corcino didn't make it. Jesse Winker only played short season ball so he wouldn't be on the list.

dougdirt
01-29-2013, 11:11 PM
I'm a little surprised myself that Corcino didn't make it. Jesse Winker only played short season ball so he wouldn't be on the list.

There were quite a few guys in short season ball on the list.

I am always skeptical on the MLB.com lists because of the way that they are generated.

I can't say exactly how the Top 100 is generated, but the Top 50 is generated by Jonathan Mayo asking scouts/baseball professionals of other types for their personal Top 30 lists and then assigning them points (30 points for a first place vote and 1 point for a 30th place vote).

Ideally, everyone polled could have the exact same #31 prospect and he never shows up on the list, but one guy polled could be in love with a guy and rank him 15th and no one else would have had him in their Top 50, but that guy is considered a better prospect in this kind of system.

Superdude
01-29-2013, 11:12 PM
I'm a little surprised myself that Corcino didn't make it. Jesse Winker only played short season ball so he wouldn't be on the list.

I'm sure there were probably guys like that on the list. Winker isn't the freak athlete and doesn't have glowing draft position to his name though, so he'll probably have to prove himself a bit more. He'll get his share of love if he keeps hitting like he did last year.

Salukifan2
01-29-2013, 11:15 PM
^very much agree

Also, i wouldn't expect to see tons of reds players on the list in the coming years or for the reds overall system to be ranked to highly. That is unless Walt has changed his style of building teams. His MO in st louis wasn't really to build from within once he got his team, and in the end i think that is what led to his dismissal. For the sake of the reds long term success i hope he has changed his opinion on that.

Scrap Irony
01-29-2013, 11:27 PM
Seven pennants in 13 years isn't a poor MO, Dude. That's flat getting it done.

BTW, the Cardinals' system was one of the most productive in the game under Jocketty.

Salukifan2
01-29-2013, 11:34 PM
No it wasn't. Before an argument starts please look at every cardinals draft from 2000-2007. They were absolutly awful. With the exception of Yadi there were no impact position players to be drafted and come through the system under Walt in a normal amount of time. Yes jay and Craig were drafted by walt but neither was a major league starter till they were 27.

You make alot of valid points when we talk, but when Walt Jocketty left st. louis he left a minor league system that was in shambles.

Also, i didn't say he had a poor MO is said that while he was in STL it wasn't his MO to build from within, especially in the last few years. That point is undeniable.

Impactful players drafted by Walt with cards from 2000-2007 (by impactful, i mean starters): Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Colby Rasmus, JAime Garcia, Dan Haren, Yadi.

2 of those didn't amount to anything with the cards, and rasmus won't be a starter for long. Garcia has had one good year and one mediocre year. That production from 7 years of drafting is not "flat getting it done"

Scrap Irony
01-30-2013, 12:09 AM
All-Star players drafted and/or developed during Jocketty's tenure as Card GM:

JD Drew
Placido Polanco
Rick Ankiel
Matt Morris
Albert Pujols
Dan Haren
Yadi Molina
Adam Wainwright
Colby Rasmus
David Freese
Jaime Garcia
Lance Lynn

That's around 40 All-Star berths, fwiw, a few MVPs, a couple WS MVPs, a Cy Young, and a couple ROY.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 12:13 AM
All-Star players drafted and/or developed during Jocketty's tenure as Card GM:

JD Drew
Placido Polanco
Rick Ankiel
Matt Morris
Albert Pujols
Dan Haren
Yadi Molina
Adam Wainwright
Colby Rasmus
David Freese
Jaime Garcia
Lance Lynn

That's around 40 All-Star berths, fwiw, a few MVPs, a couple WS MVPs, a Cy Young, and a couple ROY.

david freese had nothing to do with jocketty. That was a mozeliak move. Lance Lynn was not developed by Jocketty. Lance Lynn was drafted by mozeliak in 2008.

Polanco, Drew, Ankiel, Pujols, and Morris were all drafted before 2000. Ankiel is also not an impact mlb player. Like i said in other convos we've had, Please read what i am writing. Ive said the whole time that his post 2000 draft history with the cardinals was awful. It was. Undeniable.

Jocketty was the architect of the cardinals rise in the early to mid 2000's and the architect of its regression between 2006 and 2010. With the trough of the regression coming in 2007. After the retirements of Walker and Sanders their were no in house replacements for them and the cards had no prsopects that they could trade to acquire new outfielders. Outfield is only one example of this.

Though the cards won the world series in 2006 everyone know that they were at best a mediocre team. The cards won 100 games in both '04 and '05. 83 in '06 and then 78 in '07. In those two years Jocketty's major acquisitions and call ups were: Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes, Larry Bigbie, Scott Spezio, Adam Wainwright, Juan Encarnacion, Aaron Miles, Braden Looper, Mike Maroth, Joel Pineiro, John Rodrigues, Ronnie Beliard, Jeff WEaver, and Ludwick

Outside of Weaver, Spezio, and Reyes playing out of their minds in '06 playoffs, like whole team, the only one who has been a mainstay productive mlb starter is Adam Wainwright. Luddy has had one great season in '08, a mediocre one in '09, two awful ones in '10 and '11 and then a very good one in '12. Therefore, he does not count as a mainstay productive MLB starter.

Jocketty has done an impressive job with the reds, especially this past season. But Jocketty left the cardinals in '07 with Carpenter and Wainwright the only starting pitchers that could be counted on. Pujols and Yadi the only reliable infielders. And nothing in the outfield except for Ankiel who was good for one season. On top of that the only player in the farm system of any Renown was Rasmus.

Jocketty, with the reds, had nothing to do with any of your current young players as far as drafting goes. Mez, Frazier, and Cozart were all '07 before he was with them. Bruce the year before and obviously votto before that. He signed Chapman, and an eception is Leake, sorry. but i don't even think he will be anything more than an inning eating reliever anyway. He did, however, trade away his young talent for Latos and Choo Which is very similar to what he did in St. louis ex: Haren for Mulder. Mortenson for Walker. Polanco for Rolen. It is his MO. undeniable.

757690
01-30-2013, 12:19 AM
No it wasn't. Before an argument starts please look at every cardinals draft from 2000-2007. They were absolutly awful. With the exception of Yadi there were no impact position players to be drafted and come through the system under Walt in a normal amount of time. Yes jay and Craig were drafted by walt but neither was a major league starter till they were 27.

You make alot of valid points when we talk, but when Walt Jocketty left st. louis he left a minor league system that was in shambles.

Also, i didn't say he had a poor MO is said that while he was in STL it wasn't his MO to build from within, especially in the last few years. That point is undeniable.

Impactful players drafted by Walt with cards from 2000-2007 (by impactful, i mean starters): Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Colby Rasmus, JAime Garcia, Dan Haren, Yadi.

2 of those didn't amount to anything with the cards, and rasmus won't be a starter for long. Garcia has had one good year and one mediocre year. That production from 7 years of drafting is not "flat getting it done"

You're right, his drafts from that period didn't amount to much. But most of that was due to draft position. A team that is in contention for 14 years is going to be at the end of the draft for most of those years. Sure, he didn't have a lot of hits, but he really didn't miss a lot of guys either. The good ones were gone most of the time when the Cardinal name was called on draft day.

Btw, Freese was acquired in 2007. Pretty sure Jocketty made that trade. But, again. He's not a player from the draft, which makes your point.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2013, 12:36 AM
david freese had nothing to do with jocketty. That was a mozeliak move. Lance Lynn was not developed by Jocketty. Lance Lynn was drafted by mozeliak in 2008.

I'm wrong about Lynn and Freese. The rest, however, are all All-Stars drafted or developed under Jocketty.



Polanco, Drew, Ankiel, Pujols, and Morris were all drafted before 2000. Ankiel is also not an impact mlb player. Like i said in other convos we've had, Please read what i am writing. Ive said the whole time that his post 2000 draft history with the cardinals was awful. It was. Undeniable.

No, it's not undeniable. I'm denying it. Considering their drafting position, the Cardinals have done a great job drafting contributors. He won seven pennants and a World Series in 12 years as the Cardinal GM. He was responsible for drafting players who were picked as All-Stars almost 40 times in those years. What more do you want?



Jocketty was the architect of the cardinals rise in the early to mid 2000's and the architect of its regression between 2006 and 2010. With the trough of the regression coming in 2007. After the retirements of Walker and Sanders their were no in house replacements for them and the cards had no prsopects that they could trade to acquire new outfielders. Outfield is only one example of this.

Regression? What regression? They won a World Series in that time.



Though the cards won the world series in 2006 everyone know that they were at best a mediocre team. The cards won 100 games in both '04 and '05. 83 in '06 and then 78 in '07. In those two years Jocketty's major acquisitions and call ups were: Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes, Larry Bigbie, Scott Spezio, Adam Wainwright, Juan Encarnacion, Aaron Miles, Braden Looper, Mike Maroth, Joel Pineiro, John Rodrigues, Ronnie Beliard, Jeff WEaver.

Outside of Weaver and Spezio playing out of their minds in '06 playoffs like whole team, the only one who that has been a mainstay productive mlb starter is Adam Wainwright.

Again, he won the World Series so he gets credit for doing the right thing that year.

So you're basically calling him out for one year, perhaps two. In a decade plus wherein he won seven pennants.

That's a run stronger than any Red GM since the 1970s (and arguably just as strong as that run). It's a run as strong and long as any in the game aside from Atlanta's 90s run and the Yankees dominance from the 1920s until the early 60s.

dougdirt
01-30-2013, 12:42 AM
Walt Jocketty has very little to do with the draft. He does control the farm system in the sense that he can trade guys away, but when Walt came in he left the system in tact and it really is for the most part, still in tact.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 12:47 AM
The yankees always win and they draft fine. So do the Red sox. There are 40 rounds in the mlb draft and international signings. Draft position matters less in baseball than any other sport.

And I never said he did a poor job. i said he built a poor farm system between 2000 and when he was fired that left the organization completely hamstrung in 06, 07, and beyond.

I will say again, I am only talking about his drafting and player development between 2000 and 2007. I couldn't care less about his drafts from the 90's. My whole point is that he built his team (drafts from the 90's) and then did little to prepare when those players aged and left.

READ my posts less selectively scrap.

Also, cards have been in contention between 2009 and now and mozeliak and crew are doing just fine in the draft. Draft position doesn't mean a whole lot. The mariners have been drafting in the top ten every year since 2003 but they still suck. Tampa had top drafts for forever and it took them a decade to amount to anything. How about pittsburgh? draft position means nothing.

Finally, if you read my very first post it says, "Unless he changed his opinion on the draft." MY whole point was that i hope he doesn't end up neglecting the reds farm system as he did the cardinals.

757690
01-30-2013, 01:13 AM
The yankees always win and they draft fine. So do the Red sox. There are 40 rounds in the mlb draft and international signings. Draft position matters less in baseball than any other sport.

And I never said he did a poor job. i said he built a poor farm system between 2000 and when he was fired that left the organization completely hamstrung in 06, 07, and beyond.

I will say again, I am only talking about his drafting and player development between 2000 and 2007. I couldn't care less about his drafts from the 90's. My whole point is that he built his team (drafts from the 90's) and then did little to prepare when those players aged and left.

READ my posts less selectively scrap.

Also, cards have been in contention between 2009 and now and mozeliak and crew are doing just fine in the draft. Draft position doesn't mean a whole lot. The mariners have been drafting in the top ten every year since 2003 but they still suck. Tampa had top drafts for forever and it took them a decade to amount to anything. How about pittsburgh? draft position means nothing.

Finally, if you read my very first post it says, "Unless he changed his opinion on the draft." MY whole point was that i hope he doesn't end up neglecting the reds farm system as he did the cardinals.

Red Sox did fine in those drafts, but the Yankees did much worse than the Cardinals. Red Sox drafted around 10 slots higher a few times, and those were the times they got someone good.

Draft position means everything. Seriously, just look at the results of the first 15 players drafted vs the results of the second 15 players drafted in the first round every year. Don't have time to look up the exact numbers right now, but if you do, you'll be amazed at the difference.

The Cardinals didn't get great results in those years, but they got decent results for their position. Definitely could have been better, but it wasn't from neglect or lack of effort. Trust me, I suffered through the Marge-Linder decades of draft neglect, I know what it looks like, lol.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 01:23 AM
thats a good point. neglect may be the wrong word. But i still say that just because you have lots of high drafts in baseball doesn't mean youre gonna be good, just like having low draft picks means you have to be mediocre to bad.

Also, only 23 memebers of the hall of fame as of 2011 were drafted. of those 23 7 came in the first round. 3 were undrafted. Not a single #1 draft pick has made the hall. That will however change with Griff and Chipper.

OF course youd rather draft higher but yankees, atlanta, boston to a degree, the even the cardinals show that a team can still be successful without lots of high draft picks.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 01:58 AM
All-Star players drafted and/or developed during Jocketty's tenure as Card GM:

JD Drew
Placido Polanco
Rick Ankiel
Matt Morris
Albert Pujols
Dan Haren
Yadi Molina
Adam Wainwright
Colby Rasmus
David Freese
Jaime Garcia
Lance Lynn

That's around 40 All-Star berths, fwiw, a few MVPs, a couple WS MVPs, a Cy Young, and a couple ROY.

What a flagrantly inaccurate post.

Ankiel, Garcia, and Rasmus have never been all-stars. JD drew was an all star once, and that was long after he was with the cards. Polanco had two. none with the cardinals. And your math is WAYYYYYYY off. There are less than 25 all star births in that group and almost half are locked up in one player. As are all the MVP's. Only one WS mvp in Freese. And once again pujols claims the only ROY.

Its helpful to take a look at baseball reference before stating an opinion as fact.

Superdude
01-30-2013, 02:12 AM
Finally, if you read my very first post it says, "Unless he changed his opinion on the draft." MY whole point was that i hope he doesn't end up neglecting the reds farm system as he did the cardinals.

I've never followed the Cardinals all that closely because they're icky, but I don't think results necessarily indicate priorities with something as volatile as the MLB draft. Sometimes it just doesn't work out. And like Doug said, Buckley and the scouting crew are basically running the draft, not Jocketty.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 02:17 AM
And bernanke runs the fed while geitner runs the treasury but the economy is blamed on obama. Jocketty oversees player transactions, after the first three years of bad drafts he should have made a change.

dougdirt
01-30-2013, 02:25 AM
And bernanke runs the fed while geitner runs the treasury but the economy is blamed on obama. Jocketty oversees player transactions, after the first three years of bad drafts he should have made a change.

And under Jocketty, the Reds farm system has been fantastic. It has produced. Big time. While I don't think he has much to do with it at all other than keeping Buckley and his crew in place when he took over, you want to give or take credit from the GM for the farm. So let's answer this question: What is more important, the 5 most recent years of Jocketty's farm system or the time before that when trying to figure out what it will do moving forward?

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 02:38 AM
And as i said earlier he had good drafts starting out with the cards and then traded his young talent to build a great club, as he has been doing with the reds, and then all of the sudden when he needed a farm system it wasn't there. I was drawing parallels and said i was hoping he learned from his time in stl.

Superdude
01-30-2013, 03:14 AM
And as i said earlier he had good drafts starting out with the cards and then traded his young talent to build a great club, as he has been doing with the reds, and then all of the sudden when he needed a farm system it wasn't there. I was drawing parallels and said i was hoping he learned from his time in stl.

He has traded young talent, but it's been almost entirely superfluous talent. Alonso, Grandal, Wood, etc. had no place on this team. He's leveraged the farm perfectly so far IMO.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 03:41 AM
As he did in stl. Once again. Parallels. One day johnny cueto and latos are gonna cost close to 20mil a piece. Alot of these reds are.gonna get real expensive. Especially when you really want to sign someone but you cant because youre paying 38 yr old votto 26 mil per.

Jocketty can learn from his time in st louis and make sure he keeps a strong organizational base or he can start signing aging and underperforming players, hoping they have a rennaissance, like he started doing after '05.

Hoping he doesnt do the latter twice is something reds fans should agree with

puca
01-30-2013, 06:03 AM
n/m

lollipopcurve
01-30-2013, 07:36 AM
As he did in stl. Once again. Parallels. One day johnny cueto and latos are gonna cost close to 20mil a piece. Alot of these reds are.gonna get real expensive. Especially when you really want to sign someone but you cant because youre paying 38 yr old votto 26 mil per.

Jocketty can learn from his time in st louis and make sure he keeps a strong organizational base or he can start signing aging and underperforming players, hoping they have a rennaissance, like he started doing after '05.

Hoping he doesnt do the latter twice is something reds fans should agree with

I'm a big Jocketty fan -- have generally given him As on the little grade 'em polls we do here, but I do appreciate Salukifan's perspective here. What Jocketty has done recently is similar to what he did in St. Louis, and it's true that the Cards' farm dried up. In the end, I'm not that concerned. Peaks and vallies happen, and the Reds' window will not be open forever. The question becomes, has he built an organization that can avoid going into another long swoon, whenever fortunes change?

MikeThierry
01-30-2013, 09:17 AM
I agree with the sentiment that Jocketty didn't draft well post 2000. It was in fact the reason why he was let go or left. The organization hired Mozeliak in part to oversee the draft because Dewitt wanted a stronger drafting system. Mozeliak, along with Jeff Lunow, really took over the draft and Jocketty felt this undermined his power (which honestly it did).

One thing I will give Jocketty credit for is recognizing that the Cardinals could spend money and that he was a good "salesman", so to speak. Jocketty was able to make impact trades because he knew the Cardinals could cover the costs of getting those players. He was also very good at selling players to other teams to get trades done. Looking at what he's accomplished in Cincy, it looks like he's adapted his tactics to the type of financial situation he sees in Cincy. In this respect, it what makes him a good GM. Being successful using two different philosophies.

That said, as a Cardinals fan I love what Mozeliak has done with this organization. He's a hybrid type GM using modern saber statistics in his evaluation but still has an "old school approach". I certainly can't argue against what he's done in the draft. Baseball America recently came out with their top 100 prospects and the Cards had 6 players in the top 100, 2 of which are in the top 25, and Taveras was ranked #3 in baseball I believe. In 2011, the Cardinals used 12 or so different rookies and won the WS. I liked Jocketty here and he was very successful. However Mozeliak has made a mark in his own right in my opinion.

EDIT: What should also be noted is that Mozeliak has completely rebuilt the Cardinals farm system into one of the best, if not the best system in baseball, while not drafting very high.

EDIT#2: One other thought I had on this is that both Jocketty and Mozeliak had to also deal with arguably the most powerful manager in baseball the majority of their time in St. Louis. Tony LaRussa had a ton of power, more than most, in determining what type of players he wanted for the team. He wasn't the kind of manager who would put up with a player just handed to him by the General manager. The GM's had to walk a fine line between manager input and their view of how the ball club should be run. In many ways, Jocketty and Mozeliak should be commended and given praise for the internal pressure brought on by TLR all those years.

Benihana
01-30-2013, 10:39 AM
The good news is that aside from Hamilton, Cingrani and Corcino, almost all of the potential impact talent in the Reds system is A ball and below (or under 21). That fits well with the timeframe of the big league guys hitting FA and/or moving on.

For instance, one of Cueto/Latos will leave. They can be replaced by Stephenson.
One of Bailey/Leake will likely leave. They can be replaced by one of Cingrani/Corcino.

After that the future is a lot more murky, although hopefully some of the really young guys like Winker, Reynoso, Rahier, Rosa, Travieso, Romano and Constante can hopefully be in a position to contribute.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 10:50 AM
Mike i agree with you. What Mozeliak and crew have done is pretty amazing imo. The cardinals organization has been in transition mode since 2007. The fact that mozeliak has kept the cards compettitive, let alone winning a world series, is nothing short of remarkable, especially since he has been doing it during a transition period.

MikeThierry
01-30-2013, 10:56 AM
Mike i agree with you. What Mozeliak and crew have done is pretty amazing imo. The cardinals organization has been in transition mode since 2007. The fact that mozeliak has kept the cards compettitive, let alone winning a world series, is nothing short of remarkable, especially since he has been doing it during a transition period.

I agree with you about the transition period. They are sort of in their "hold down the fort" mentality as they transitioned out of the Pujols era. For a couple of years now, they were waiting for guys like Miller, Rosenthal, Wong, and Taveras to hit the major league roster. I think Taveras is a year away still considering that Beltran is still in the outfield but I wouldn't be shocked if Kolten Wong wins the job from Daniel Descalso in spring training and both Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal has already made an impact on their roster. Carlos Martinez, who doesn't get talked about much, might actually be the best pitching prospect the Cards have and he's probably two years away.

mdccclxix
01-30-2013, 10:57 AM
Funny, I was just looking at the arch of the organization over the next 3 years this morning. Even funnier, I was prompted by this quote by Jason Parks:


Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks

I'm working on the #Cardinals prospect list at present, and my hand is cramping from writing role 6 (plus player) over and over and over....

That will get a Reds fan paranoid.

The Cards have Jay, Freese and Craig all batting .300/.370/.500 and they were all like 26 or 27 when they broke through, and they all had almost no attention from prospect rankings, and they all sound like the type of player that will continue to arrive and madden the NL Central. The Cardinals have seamlessly moved past the Pujols years and have done so with a relatively tight payroll approach.

So I looked over the Reds roster, which is rock solid through 2015, btw. Then I looked over the minors, and it really isn't all that great on the offensive side of the ball, especially. After Hamilton (who still has some experience to gain), there won't be a meaningful addition to the roster for 2-3-4 years (although I do like some role players like Fellhauer, Lutz and H. Rodriguez).

Cingrani and Corcino are arriving near enough to Arroyo, Latos, and Bailey's situations to help out, but after that it's another 2-3-4 years before we will have much reinforcements.

But, that's why they play the games and that's why they draft. 2013-2015 IS the time to go all in, and the Reds have. Their roster is such that it can even withstand a few major injuries, as we saw last year. It will be a comfort when the tide rolls back into the upper minors by 2014-15, though. 2016 and beyond is setup nicely as well, and there will be time to find those top flight players until then to fill in the starting lineup. Lastly, of course, there are players that right now have not emerged, but probably will. For now, the Reds are stacked where it counts in Cincinnati and they are busy reloading where it matters a little less (except to those mavens in Dayton) in the minors.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 11:02 AM
Luckily for the Cards, when all their young talent is supposed to hit the market and be out of their price range they are going to get a new TV deal which could be, from what ive heard, 4 times the size of their current one.

mdccclxix
01-30-2013, 11:03 AM
I think Mesoraco is still somewhat of an ace in the hole for the Reds long term as well. If he plays out 2013 and 2014 behind, or with, Hannigan, he'll be entering his prime as an affordable offensive threat at a premium position. This slow progress approach isn't hurting the Reds.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 11:07 AM
Does anyone else think the Pirates will completely mismanage their youth and end up just being the same old pirates?

MikeThierry
01-30-2013, 11:08 AM
Luckily for the Cards, when all their young talent is supposed to hit the market and be out of their price range they are going to get a new TV deal which could be, from what ive heard, 4 times the size of their current one.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a TV deal for them reach the 80-100 million range. Their current TV deal is actually pitiful, like the Braves TV contract.

MikeThierry
01-30-2013, 11:09 AM
Does anyone else think the Pirates will completely mismanage their youth and end up just being the same old pirates?

I'm optimistic for them.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 11:10 AM
Oh i know its pitiful. Correct me if im wrong but isn't it only like 10 mil a year?

MikeThierry
01-30-2013, 11:13 AM
Oh i know its pitiful. Correct me if im wrong but isn't it only like 10 mil a year?

I've heard it's around 14-20 million. I think Bill Dewitt was high when he signed that deal. Even at the time he signed it, it wasn't a great deal considering the TV ratings and the media market St. Louis is.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 11:16 AM
Im pretty sure the cardinals local rankings are in the top 5 in the league, but their regional ratings aren't very good

MikeThierry
01-30-2013, 11:23 AM
Im pretty sure the cardinals local rankings are in the top 5 in the league, but their regional ratings aren't very good

It's still ranked as the 21st media market, which is larger than Nashville and San Diego.

Benihana
01-30-2013, 11:56 AM
So I looked over the Reds roster, which is rock solid through 2015, btw. Then I looked over the minors, and it really isn't all that great on the offensive side of the ball, especially. After Hamilton (who still has some experience to gain), there won't be a meaningful addition to the roster for 2-3-4 years (although I do like some role players like Fellhauer, Lutz and H. Rodriguez).

Cingrani and Corcino are arriving near enough to Arroyo, Latos, and Bailey's situations to help out, but after that it's another 2-3-4 years before we will have much reinforcements.

But, that's why they play the games and that's why they draft. 2013-2015 IS the time to go all in, and the Reds have. Their roster is such that it can even withstand a few major injuries, as we saw last year. It will be a comfort when the tide rolls back into the upper minors by 2014-15, though. 2016 and beyond is setup nicely as well, and there will be time to find those top flight players until then to fill in the starting lineup. Lastly, of course, there are players that right now have not emerged, but probably will. For now, the Reds are stacked where it counts in Cincinnati and they are busy reloading where it matters a little less (except to those mavens in Dayton) in the minors.

Agreed, especially with the last paragraph. Now through 2015 is THE window.

After that (if not sooner), the Cubs and Cardinals will likely be back in full force. The Brewers and Pirates may be. And the Reds will likely go through a period of rebuilding that will position them to compete again in the 2018-2020 range, when guys like Stephenson, Winker, Travieso, et al (as well as others who aren't even in the organization yet) are hopefully hitting their primes.

Of course, it is possible the Reds can still be a contending team in the 2016-2017 time period. But they'll have to shell out a LOT of dough to keep several of the guys like Latos, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman and possibly Cozart/Frazier/Mesoraco in order to make sure that happens. And don't forget, they'll already be paying $52MM per year just for Votto, Phillips and Bruce, the latter of which will be hitting FA in 2017 (and the former two who will be well on the wrong side of 30/past their primes).

As an aside (and back on thread topic), I wouldn't be shocked if Walt retires after "the window" - sometime around 2015/2016, mainly because he doesn't have the energy or desire to go through another rebuilding effort. He is the GM to take a team to the next (championship) level, not necessarily the right guy to spearhead a total overhaul/rebuilding effort.

Kc61
01-30-2013, 12:50 PM
I think the Reds did fine having three players in the top one hundred. The Reds system has been depleted via trades and promotions in recent years and it's hard to replenish quickly. Particularly since the ballclub is now winning and it's draft position is lower.

Right now, IMO, the Reds have one very exciting prospect in Hamilton, but I don't see any sure things on the farm. Stephenson is just too junior at this point to count on.

I think the Reds got a good benefit with the success of Cingrani, who has performed like a top prospect. Don't believe this much success was expected of him.

We're in a new era now. Reds won't be drafting that high, hopefully, so I don't expect many more Jay Bruces in the near future. But if they keep adding to the system, guys, like a Cingrani, will emerge.

As for Jocketty, I'm not sure his Cards experience is relevant. The Reds still need the draft very much, they are still not a top revenue team apparently, so whether the Cards focused sufficiently on the draft is besides the point. The Reds farm guys must keep churning out those prospects as best they can. It's key for a club like the Reds, even though with lower draft position it's not easy.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2013, 01:12 PM
What a flagrantly inaccurate post.

You're right. My math was way off (though flagrant is more than a little hyperbolic).

Quick question: what other GM has been better than Jocketty in drafting All-Stars over the past 20 years or so?

Another way to tackle this:

If Jocketty were indeed a poor drafter, it should show up in his players inabilities to get to the major leagues, or, in the case of poor teams, perform poorly once they get there.

This past season, Jocketty-acquired draftees and minor league, post-draft free agent signees had a WAR of 17.9 for the Cardinals. (Five years later, btw, he's still "responsible" for almost half the St. Louis WAR from last season.) I'll add other picks he made that are currently playing for other teams (Daric Barton, Colby Rasmus, Pujols, Adam Kennedy) and his Cincinnati first-round picks as well (ie., Leake, Grandal, Alonso). I also include Aroldis Chapman, as he was a free agent. That's another 16.0 WAR. To round out the team with 25 players, we'll add Brad Boxberger's -0.1 WAR last season in San Diego.

That's a 25-man roster of players drafted/ developed under Jocketty with a WAR of 33.8.

I suspect few other GMs will come close to that. He's certainly in the top five.

(Fwiw, the entire Red team had a WAR of 48.3 last season.)

In short, Jocketty's tenure as a GM has shown an ability to draft well, trade well, and sign intelligently. He's a true triple threat GM and the Reds are lucky to have him. Jocketty is pretty much universally held as an upper echelon GM. His three Executive of the Year trophies corroborate that.

MikeThierry
01-30-2013, 01:17 PM
You're right. My math was way off (though flagrant is more than a little hyperbolic).

Quick question: what other GM has been better than Jocketty in drafting All-Stars over the past 20 years or so?

Another way to tackle this:

If Jocketty were indeed a poor drafter, it should show up in his players inabilities to get to the major leagues, or, in the case of poor teams, perform poorly once they get there.

This past season, Jocketty-acquired draftees and minor league, post-draft free agent signees had a WAR of 17.9 for the Cardinals. (Five years later, btw, he's still "responsible" for almost half the St. Louis WAR from last season.) I'll add other picks he made that are currently playing for other teams (Daric Barton, Colby Rasmus, Pujols, Adam Kennedy) and his Cincinnati first-round picks as well (ie., Leake, Grandal, Alonso). I also include Aroldis Chapman, as he was a free agent. That's another 16.0 WAR. To round out the team with 25 players, we'll add Brad Boxberger's -0.1 WAR last season in San Diego.

That's a 25-man roster of players drafted/ developed under Jocketty with a WAR of 33.8.

I suspect few other GMs will come close to that. He's certainly in the top five.

(Fwiw, the entire Red team had a WAR of 48.3 last season.)

In short, Jocketty's tenure as a GM has shown an ability to draft well, trade well, and sign intelligently. He's a true triple threat GM and the Reds are lucky to have him. Jocketty is pretty much universally held as an upper echelon GM. His three Executive of the Year trophies corroborate that.

Brian Cashman :)

REDREAD
01-30-2013, 01:55 PM
.

Draft position means everything. Seriously, just look at the results of the first 15 players drafted vs the results of the second 15 players drafted in the first round every year. Don't have time to look up the exact numbers right now, but if you do, you'll be amazed at the difference.
.

That's a good point.
Also, with the new slotted draft system in place now, I expect the difference in the future to be even greater. The Yankees had low draft position but could count on talented players falling to them due to signablity concerns. Teams like NYY and Texas were unrestrained in their foreign talent acquision too.
I think we are going to see a greater impact of draft creating parity the way it was intended to.

REDREAD
01-30-2013, 02:03 PM
As he did in stl. Once again. Parallels. One day johnny cueto and latos are gonna cost close to 20mil a piece. Alot of these reds are.gonna get real expensive. Especially when you really want to sign someone but you cant because youre paying 38 yr old votto 26 mil per.

Jocketty can learn from his time in st louis and make sure he keeps a strong organizational base or he can start signing aging and underperforming players, hoping they have a rennaissance, like he started doing after '05.

Hoping he doesnt do the latter twice is something reds fans should agree with

That's a good point, but no team can stay good forever. Especially with the new slotted draft system. I don't have the numbers but if you look at entire draft classes for a given year, not many of them eventually become good starters. When a team starts drafting at the end of the first round, it's pretty difficult to be in the top farm system in baseball.

I also think the Reds have been great under Buckley/Jocketty at taking risks.
2 of our best prospects now.. Hamilton and Cingranni were not as well thought of by the rest of baseball at the time of the draft. Great scouting by the Reds. Now obviously, not all picks like this are going to work out, but the Reds have done an incredible job of grabbing the best available player in the draft.

Pony Boy
01-30-2013, 02:16 PM
Another reason that the Reds' system isnt ranked real high right now is because a lot of our minor league talent is in the lower levels of the system. The Reds have opted for HS talent with their high picks in recent drafts and those players take a while to climb the rankings. Stephenson, Travieso, Winker, etc. were all picked with long ETAs in mind.

Contrast this with a few years ago when the Reds were taking college players routinely in the first round (Leake, Alonso, Grandal). All of those players made it to the majors very quickly and it made the system as a whole look good when we had our first rounders in the upper minor leagues. The Reds could take a couple of college players early in the next draft and quickly resupply the upper levels of the system.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 02:31 PM
For the final time. Walt jocketty is great gm. With the cards in the 90s he built a power house of team. He built it by drafting well in the 90s and then making savvy trades and other acquisitions to build a fantastic nucleus of talent. But, when it became clear that this team was going almost completely disintegrate except for yadi, pujols, carp, and waino he was left scratching his head because he had nothing on the farm that he could draw from. He had nothing on the farm because his group had bad draft after bad draft from 2000 to 2007.

My whole point is that for the sake of the reds i hope he has learned from his experiences in stl and wont make the same mistake twice. Because i am a see to believe kind of guy, i will wait till 2015 before i make an assessment as of whether or not he has changed. But, since in the last year he has traded 3 top 100 prospects i he isnt off to a great start imo.

lollipopcurve
01-30-2013, 03:08 PM
since in the last year he has traded 3 top 100 prospects i he isnt off to a great start imo.

Look more closely. None of them is a pitcher. Catcher, behind another top prospect. 1B, behind league MVP under long-term deal. SS, behind established major league SS with 5 years of control left.

While WJ's MO may be similar, it's not the same.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 04:36 PM
Thats true, though i do believe time will indicate that they traded the wrong catching prospect. And i wont go so far as to say Cozart is an "established major league short stop." He is worse than a no hit middle infielder, he is a no get on base middle infielder. He is slick with the glove but so is Gregorious, and Didi is alot better with the bat.
And Alonso is capable of playing the outfield, which will have a hole when ludwick is gone. I'm not saying don't trade prospects, but there is a reason why teams are doing it less and less.

mdccclxix
01-30-2013, 04:50 PM
Alonso's outfield defense and Didi's bat have not been proven, far from it.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2013, 04:51 PM
My whole point is that for the sake of the reds i hope he has learned from his experiences in stl and wont make the same mistake twice. Because i am a see to believe kind of guy, i will wait till 2015 before i make an assessment as of whether or not he has changed. But, since in the last year he has traded 3 top 100 prospects i he isnt off to a great start imo.

I see no reason to ding him for the "mistake" of winning a World Series. He's drafted very well, as evidenced by the WAR of his players now playing across mlb. I also believe you're being incredibly harsh in assessing Jocketty's tenure as the Cardinal GM.

No GM hits on every draft. All GMs make mistakes. Jocketty typically makes less mistakes than just about any other GM in baseball.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2013, 04:52 PM
Thats true, though i do believe time will indicate that they traded the wrong catching prospect. And i wont go so far as to say Cozart is an "established major league short stop." He is worse than a no hit middle infielder, he is a no get on base middle infielder. He is slick with the glove but so is Gregorious, and Didi is alot better with the bat.
And Alonso is capable of playing the outfield, which will have a hole when ludwick is gone. I'm not saying don't trade prospects, but there is a reason why teams are doing it less and less.

1. There are serious questions about Gregorius' bat.
2. Yonder Alonso was quite possibly the worst defensive OF of the past 40 years.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 05:40 PM
dude. i have said for 2 pages that he drafted poorly from 2000-2007. I HAVE NEVER SAID HE IS A BAD GM. or that he is bad at drafting. His draft results from 2000-2007 speak for themselves. There are serious questions about cozart's bat. .288 obp isnt exactly gettin it done. For reference, Daniel Descalso had an OBP of .303. So yeah, thats pretty bad. Didi is 22. Cozart is 27.

Ill agree that trading Alonso will end up being a good call but Grandal will end up being much more productive than mez imo.

Back to Jocketty, i don't expect every GM to hit on every draft. But over 8 years i think everyone can expect their front office to do better than Jocketty's from 2000-2007 on draft day.

If you bring up Jocketty's draft resume from the 90's, or with the reds, again you will have proven to me that you are not reading my posts, and are picking what you want to read.

Scrap Irony
01-30-2013, 05:47 PM
What you seem to be missing, over and over again, is that Jocketty's drafting directly contributed to two World Series teams in those years (and later, after he was canned) you say he was a poor drafter. Not only did they win the whole thing twice, they were also in the playoffs how many times during that era?

In an argument like this, I think it's entirely appropriate to point and say, "Scoreboard."

Because what he did worked really, really well for the Cardinals.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 05:49 PM
I see no reason to ding him for the "mistake" of winning a World Series. He's drafted very well, as evidenced by the WAR of his players now playing across mlb. I also believe you're being incredibly harsh in assessing Jocketty's tenure as the Cardinal GM.

No GM hits on every draft. All GMs make mistakes. Jocketty typically makes less mistakes than just about any other GM in baseball.

Let me get this straight, the cardinals 90 and 88 win teams that won the WS and made the NLCS this past year were teams built on luck, but the 83 win team with the lineup of:

C: Molina: Back when he still couldn't hit
1B: Pujols
2B: Ronnie Belliard
SS: David Eckstein
3B: An inneffective scott rolen
LF: Chris Duncan
CF: An over the hill Jim Edmonds
RF: Scott Spezio/So Taguchi/ Preston Wilson

was a great collection of talent because Jocketty was at the Helm? That team was the WORST TO EVER win a WS.

And again, i'm critically assessing his ability to draft/develop young talent in the STL organization from 2000- 2007.

Salukifan2
01-30-2013, 05:54 PM
What you seem to be missing, over and over again, is that Jocketty's drafting directly contributed to two World Series teams in those years (and later, after he was canned) you say he was a poor drafter. Not only did they win the whole thing twice, they were also in the playoffs how many times during that era?

In an argument like this, I think it's entirely appropriate to point and say, "Scoreboard."

Because what he did worked really, really well for the Cardinals.

Yes, scoreboard. The cardinals from '04 to '07 did this. 105 W, 100 W, 83 W, 78 W. Why did a team that won 100 games win only 78 two years later? Because the organization failed to bring in young talent with which to build a new. Guess how many starting position players on the '11 world series team had anything to do with Jocketty? 3.

The lack of a productive farm system is what got Jocketty fired man. Everyone knows it.

You are once again assessing everything he has done in the last 20 years or so of being a GM. I am analyzing his inability to create a productive farm system from 2000-2007.

Furhermore, I have never disputed with you that jocketty had good drafts the created a team that was fantastic. Read my posts!

Red Swagger
01-31-2013, 12:16 AM
I have 3 complaints about Jocketty's trades:

Grandal should have been kept, I am shocked that the Reds scouting department and talent evaluators couldn't see that Grandal's bat was more polished and ML ready, has a better approach and doesn't seem to phased by the big leagues. Thought the Reds would value a switch hitting C who can hit for power and especially average. But I still think Mesoraco will click and reach his potential has a middle of the order run producer. Maybe the Reds knew something we didn't, about PED's and wanted him out of the organization.

Jeremy Horst for Wilson Valdez was an absolutely horrid trade. Another case of the Reds under valuing a LH reliever. I don't know if the FO thought Horst wasn't capable of being an effective RP at the ML level or they just wanted to give him a chance elsewhere, but he had a great 2012 in Philly, and we all know what Valdez looked like. I know our BP was stacked last year, but could have used a solid LH RP, def a loogy to take Bray's role. The 2013 Reds BP could absolutely use Horst, guess the Reds love trading LH RP. This trade really didn't have big repercussions or anything.

And the third move I didn't like, the trade of Didi Gregorius. He is 22 years old, a defensive whiz, more capable with the bat than some think. I LOVE Cozart, I just wish we would have found someway to keep Didi at AAA in 2013 and give him one more year to evaluate his talent, as well as Cozart's 2nd year in the bigs. Plus he would offer us depth and a HUGE insurance policy. Not to mention, his trade stock would be boosted dramatically with another good year in 2013. I understand the trade though, being able to get Choo will help this offense big time. I just wish Walt would have called Kevin Towers and offered Didi for Bauer. He wanted Didi BADLY. Maybe we could have gotten Trevor Bauer straight up for Gregorius, then kept Bauer for ourselves. Then offer Leake and Stubbs to the Indians and get a bigger package in return.

Jocketty is one of the games best GM's and I am glad he has helped turn this franchise into a contender year in and year out. We have built a winner here with a BIG window.

Steve4192
01-31-2013, 07:59 AM
Grandal should have been kept

I prefer Grandal as well, but I don't think keeping him was an option. I think the Padres preferred him as well. I suspect Mat Latos would still be a Padre if the Reds insisted on keeping Grandal.

Pony Boy
01-31-2013, 09:43 AM
I see no reason to ding him for the "mistake" of winning a World Series. He's drafted very well, as evidenced by the WAR of his players now playing across mlb. I also believe you're being incredibly harsh in assessing Jocketty's tenure as the Cardinal GM.

No GM hits on every draft. All GMs make mistakes. Jocketty typically makes less mistakes than just about any other GM in baseball.

Good point. No one in baseball thinks that Jocketty made many "mistakes" as a Cardinals GM. In his 12 years as GM of the Cards he won 7 Division titles, 2 Pennants and 1 WS. He leveraged his farm system very well to acquire talent. Although he may not have drafted great, that is largely the fault of the guys making the picks (not Jocketty). And Jocketty had the good sense to hold on to guys like Pujols who he didnt draft, but also didnt trade early in his career before it was clear that he was a once-in-a-generation talent. And he did all of this with a reasonable payroll.

Salukifan2
01-31-2013, 10:17 AM
Jockettys crew drafted pujols. 13th round of '99

Scrap Irony
01-31-2013, 12:12 PM
Why did a team that won 100 games win only 78 two years later?

Injuries.

Middle reliever Josh Hancock died.
Ace pitcher Chris Carpenter was on the DL all year (relatively) and had TJ surgery.
Yadier Molina was put on the DL in May with a broken hand.
Jim Edmonds, Tyler Johnson, and David Eckstein went on the DL in June. So did Braden Looper.
Scott Rolen and Scott Speizio ended their seasons in August.

That season, Brandon Ryan, Adam Wainwright, and Chris Duncan were all youngsters pressed into larger roles that thrived. Ryan was a rookie; Wainwright became a starter, and Duncan was a second-year guy.

The Cardinals also lost four starting pitches to free agency from the year before.

No team could withstand that amount of injuries.

MikeThierry
01-31-2013, 01:14 PM
Injuries.

Middle reliever Josh Hancock died.
Ace pitcher Chris Carpenter was on the DL all year (relatively) and had TJ surgery.
Yadier Molina was put on the DL in May with a broken hand.
Jim Edmonds, Tyler Johnson, and David Eckstein went on the DL in June. So did Braden Looper.
Scott Rolen and Scott Speizio ended their seasons in August.

That season, Brandon Ryan, Adam Wainwright, and Chris Duncan were all youngsters pressed into larger roles that thrived. Ryan was a rookie; Wainwright became a starter, and Duncan was a second-year guy.

The Cardinals also lost four starting pitches to free agency from the year before.

No team could withstand that amount of injuries.

I think this is the biggest reason here. There was no way they could lose four starting pitchers and be competitive.

Salukifan2
01-31-2013, 01:21 PM
And who did they get to replace them? Braden looper and todd wellemeyer. Y? No young pitching coming up.

Scrap Irony
01-31-2013, 01:22 PM
The takaway is that no GM could have forseen the injuries and few farm systems in the history of the game could have weathered the twin storms of free agency and injuries for that year.

To insist that it's Jocketty's fault somehow because he didn't have enough prospects pan out doesn't pass the smell test.

dougdirt
01-31-2013, 01:51 PM
And who did they get to replace them? Braden looper and todd wellemeyer. Y? No young pitching coming up.

When has any team EVER had 4 pitchers from the minor leagues all ready to step into the Majors at once?

Salukifan2
01-31-2013, 02:06 PM
My entire argument was that jocketty never brought up "impactful" young players. You brought up duncan and ryan were young players he brought up but you forgot about anthony reyes. If these player were thriving young talent why is only 1 still in the majors, and a no hit roll player at that.

Ryan was 27 his rookie year. Duncan was never a tremendous hitter in the minors and reyes, well his 2007 season speaks for itself

2011 waino missed the season team wins 90 games

Salukifan2
01-31-2013, 02:39 PM
When has any team EVER had 4 pitchers from the minor leagues all ready to step into the Majors at once?

Probably never. But jocketty didnt have any position players on the farm that he could trade for good pitching either. The farm was EMPTY which left the big club completely hamstrung.

# of cardinals in rankings top 100 in 2007:2, 2006: 1, 2005:1 (Reyes, the same gut from '06) 2004: 2

thats bad. very bad

2007 and 2006 are Baseball america

2005 is baseball think factory

2004 is rotoworld. Wanted them all to be BA but couldn't find them going back that far.

Salukifan2
01-31-2013, 02:40 PM
Also, jocketty signed all those pitchers whos contracts ended at the same time. He knew when their contracts were up and he wasnt prepared

camisadelgolf
01-31-2013, 06:04 PM
Wherever Jocketty goes, he's in "win now" mode. The '94 Cardinals team he inherited wasn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard. Next thing you know, he was trading for established veterans and defensive stalwarts like Royce Clayton, Dennis Eckersley, Jim Edmonds, Chuck Finley, Darryl Kile, Steve Kline, Mark McGwire, Darren Oliver, Edgar Renteria, Scott Rolen, Todd Stottlemyre, Fernando Tatis, Fernando Vina, Woody Williams.

Combined with key free agent signings like Andy Benes, Kent Bottenfield, Eric Davis, Delino DeShields, Tonny Fossas, Gary Gaetti, Ron Gant, Jason Isringhausen, and Tino Martinez, he was able to put together some great teams.

And all that winning was accomplished with mediocre drafting and development. Jocketty's specialty was knowing when to give up on players and when to give them another shot. Fortunately, the Reds are looking like they're much better at drafting and developing players than the Cardinals were during his tenure (with the exception of Pujols, of course). As long as they can keep that up, I see no reason to think Jocketty won't be able to keep up with the Joneses and continue winning.

MikeThierry
01-31-2013, 06:55 PM
Camis, I agree with you there. I believe that what he did in 1996 was one of the best GM jobs in the past two decades.

Salukifan2
01-31-2013, 07:16 PM
Unfortunately, '96 was a couple years before my time. But i do believe jocketty is one the top GMs in the game and always loved him in St. Louis. But all good things do come to an end and i think it was time for him to go when he was fired.

Ill also say this for jocketty, the second he was gone Bill Dewitt actually opened up his pocket book.

lollipopcurve
02-01-2013, 09:17 AM
Ill also say this for jocketty, the second he was gone Bill Dewitt actually opened up his pocket book.

Key point. Just as it should be acknowledged that Castellini has done the same lately, giving WJ an opportunity to build a consistent winner.

M2
02-01-2013, 12:47 PM
The one thing to like about the three guys in this top 100 is they all look like keepers. We might see Corcino in other top 100s, but I'm not sure it's better to keep him or to move him. Yonder Alonso was a top 100 prospect and I never viewed him as a keeper (and not just because Joey Votto was the team's 1B). Now there's nothing wrong with having trade bait on hand, but it's better to have legit players.

One other thing to keep in mind is that, even though he's no longer a top prospect, the Reds are still waiting on Mes to establish himself. So if the team adds a CF and C to the All-Universe 1B, the 2012 rookies at SS and 3B, the 26 year-old power hitting RF and the cagey vet at 2B, the only real position that's going to need attention in the coming years is LF.

The system basically has three years to load up for any kind of retooling on the position player side. And the rotation is chock full of young arms too. Hopefully when new position players are needed, Winker is leading the next wave.

Drugs Delaney
02-01-2013, 05:56 PM
The one thing to like about the three guys in this top 100 is they all look like keepers. We might see Corcino in other top 100s, but I'm not sure it's better to keep him or to move him. Yonder Alonso was a top 100 prospect and I never viewed him as a keeper (and not just because Joey Votto was the team's 1B). Now there's nothing wrong with having trade bait on hand, but it's better to have legit players.

One other thing to keep in mind is that, even though he's no longer a top prospect, the Reds are still waiting on Mes to establish himself. So if the team adds a CF and C to the All-Universe 1B, the 2012 rookies at SS and 3B, the 26 year-old power hitting RF and the cagey vet at 2B, the only real position that's going to need attention in the coming years is LF.

The system basically has three years to load up for any kind of retooling on the position player side. And the rotation is chock full of young arms too. Hopefully when new position players are needed, Winker is leading the next wave.

Some great points. Totally agree that Mez and Hamilton are the big keys. If they develop more in line with their optimistic projections, then the Reds lack of top positional prospects isn't too big of a deal. If they provide above average production on the cheap, then it should be easy to afford to fill LF with mid level free agents until someone emerges from the minors.

Being able to fill half of the 8 position spots with inexpensive guys like Mes, Hanilton, Frazier and Cozart if they produce like expensive guys makes the GM job pretty easy.

Ohayou
02-05-2013, 09:08 PM
What I don't understand is the huge gap between Hamilton and Eaton. Both have blazing speed, the only difference is that Eaton didn't have a manager letting him run almost every time he reached base. Otherwise, he has more power, better contact skills, and already great defense at a position Hamilton is just now learning. So, yeah...97? That seems a bit absurd.

M2
02-06-2013, 01:44 PM
What I don't understand is the huge gap between Hamilton and Eaton. Both have blazing speed, the only difference is that Eaton didn't have a manager letting him run almost every time he reached base. Otherwise, he has more power, better contact skills, and already great defense at a position Hamilton is just now learning. So, yeah...97? That seems a bit absurd.

Eaton doesn't have anything like Hamilton's speed. Almost no one in baseball does.

People who've never sprinted don't realize how huge a 0.2 second gap is. And if you're not that fast it isn't that large, but among fast people that's well over a body length. Hamilton's gaining extra feet in a game of inches.

texasdave
02-06-2013, 01:54 PM
The scouting scale goes from 20 to 80, and Gose, the Toronto Blue Jays center fielder on the short list of the game's speediest behind Hamilton, grades out as an 80.

"If I'm an 80," Gose said, "that means he's a 100."

OGB
02-07-2013, 05:26 AM
Thats true, though i do believe time will indicate that they traded the wrong catching prospect. And i wont go so far as to say Cozart is an "established major league short stop." He is worse than a no hit middle infielder, he is a no get on base middle infielder. He is slick with the glove but so is Gregorious, and Didi is alot better with the bat.
And Alonso is capable of playing the outfield, which will have a hole when ludwick is gone. I'm not saying don't trade prospects, but there is a reason why teams are doing it less and less.

The season after Ludwick's gone, Alonso will be 28

M2
02-08-2013, 12:10 AM
And Alonso is capable of playing the outfield

No he's not. He's barely capable of playing 1B. Defensively speaking his optimal position is DH.