Cardinals just keep on winning

[50YrRedsFan]

Do we do something to help our offense (like a trade), or do we tread water and hope our injured get back sooner than later and help? The Cardinals just keep winning, and we don't get to play the Cubs every day. As I write this, the Cards have come back to take the lead on the Brewers late in their Saturday game. The Blue Jays and the Angels may start getting antsy to dump players if they don't right their ships soon. TOR is 11 games under .500 and has the third worst record in the Bigs, ahead of only the lowly Astros and Marlins. They are 11 games behind Boston already. The Angels are losing late to BAL, and could fall into a tie for the 4th worst record in the Bigs with the Cubs. They could be 8 games behind Texas after today. The Rays and Phillies are struggling also.
Would you settle for a wild card if the Cards should pull away, or should action be taken sooner than later?

[Red Raindog]

Waaaaay too early to panic --- the Whiny Birds bullpen will get them sooner or later

[bubbachunk]

We are a month in, relax and enjoy competitive baseball. Check back in July.

[50YrRedsFan]

Waaaaay too early to panic --- the Whiny Birds bullpen will get them sooner or later

I'm not panicking, but would like to see something done sooner than later to correct obvious problems we have before we have a major uphill battle to get into the playoffs. I hate this last minute stuff at the July 31st deadline. By the end of this month, we should have a pretty good idea how things may shake out and what players might come available..

[scott91575]

Good thread timing for a jinx. The Brewers tied the game up.

[50YrRedsFan]

Good thread timing for a jinx. The Brewers tied the game up.

Cards just got the lead back in the top of 9th, 7-6, with no outs yet.

[reds44]

Dear God.

[scott91575]

BTW...how often do you see teams trade anyone in May or June? There are two reasons for that...

1) Even teams that seem way out of it don't want to give up
2) Teams will continue to work for the best deal they can find right up to the trading deadline. Unless you way overpay, most teams will wait and see if they can get a better deal. Especially since baseball has become a sellers market with more teams in playoff contention.

As much as people here want to panic and call for trades, it is very, very unlikely any time soon. Teams are simply not willing to throw in the towel even 11 games back, and even if they are they will ask for a ridiculous return at this point in the season.

[scott91575]

Just some more info...

at this time last year the Reds were 2.5 games behind the Cards, same as the start of today and possibly the end of it.

[RedsfaninMT]

Let's see...just looked it up, and last year the Reds were 2.5 out trailing the great Cardinals team and showing how inferior of a team they were. The Reds were but one game over .500.

Make of it what you will.

Scott - clearly you are as delusional as I am.

[Magdal]

I'm not sure if the Cards OR the Brews wanna win this game! It has been a back and forth nail biter!

[Tony Cloninger]

I think some of us worry about that team because they continuously bring up hitters to plug any hole they wish....while the Reds can barely call up anyone to do much of anything to help.

And whatever voodoo that Duncan used to do to make average pitchers better....has not dissipated with him gone.

[Tony Cloninger]

Dear God.

Are you OK? :confused:

[powersackers]

So if we were 2.5 ahead if them would this thread even exist? The Central will come down to Cincy and StL. We all knew that going in didn't we? Our pitching is better. There offense is better. This is going to be a rollercoaster ride for 4 more months. Strap in and enjoy it.

[RBA]

I think the Central will come down to the Reds, Cardinals will fade.

[R_Webb18]

Looking at standing there seems to be a lot team at .500 or + or like 1 or 2 below. Not many teams out there like Miami since teams like Rockies are playing well.

[PuffyPig]

I'm not panicking....


Yeah you are.

[kaldaniels]

So this was the question in the opening post.

Should the Cards pull away, would you settle for a wildcard?

Who would answer no to that?

[Salukifan2]

I'm pretty sure the reds just picked up one hell of win today. Why are you worried about the cards?

[PuffyPig]

So this was the question in the opening post.

Should the Cards pull away, would you settle for a wildcard?

Who would answer no to that?

If you question is "If we don't win the division, would I settle for the wildcard?", has the same answer to :

(1) Does a bear poop in the woods:
(2) Is the pope Catholic; and
(3) Do we continue to get rather bizarre question on Redszone?

[RedEye]

If the Cards win the division and the Brewers take the wildcard, would you be happy just having a winning record? J/k

[dsmith421]

Do we do something to help our offense (like a trade), or do we tread water and hope our injured get back sooner than later and help? The Cardinals just keep winning, and we don't get to play the Cubs every day.

It's the first week in May. The Reds have 131 more games.

Has there been a big influx of people onto this site recently that have never watched baseball before?

[bellhead]

Cards will fade there is no way their starting team ERA will be below 3.00... It's at 2.07 right now tops in the big leagues.

[RedlegJake]

Cards will fade there is no way their starting team ERA will be below 3.00... It's at 2.07 right now tops in the big leagues.

Our team, imo, has better starting pitching. The Cards are good but no where near that good. Reds bullpen should get better while the Cards will too but also and again...their bullpen is not even close to the Reds. The Cards RISP is unsustainable. Crazy high. The Reds is lower than I believe historical stats predict...not by a huge margin but still should climb. The Cards collapse but they will regress and the Reds will get better and more consistent.

[smixsell]

Do we do something to help our offense (like a trade), or do we tread water and hope our injured get back sooner than later and help? The Cardinals just keep winning, and we don't get to play the Cubs every day. As I write this, the Cards have come back to take the lead on the Brewers late in their Saturday game. The Blue Jays and the Angels may start getting antsy to dump players if they don't right their ships soon. TOR is 11 games under .500 and has the third worst record in the Bigs, ahead of only the lowly Astros and Marlins. They are 11 games behind Boston already. The Angels are losing late to BAL, and could fall into a tie for the 4th worst record in the Bigs with the Cubs. They could be 8 games behind Texas after today. The Rays and Phillies are struggling also.
Would you settle for a wild card if the Cards should pull away, or should action be taken sooner than later?

Wow.

You sound like someone who has never followed an entire MLB season before, or at least like someone who is either very prone to panic or has forgotten what the Cardinals have done in the past couple of seasons (hot and cold streaks).

It's a little early to be letting a 2.5 game deficit to a team as unspectacular as the Cards dictate your personnel moves.


PS If Ludwick isn't going to come back at 100% (wnich is likely IMO unfortionately) then YES I look to make a move if I'm the Red's GM. But that has nothing to do with the Cardinals "keeping on winning."

[Salukifan2]

Our team, imo, has better starting pitching. The Cards are good but no where near that good. Reds bullpen should get better while the Cards will too but also and again...their bullpen is not even close to the Reds. The Cards RISP is unsustainable. Crazy high. The Reds is lower than I believe historical stats predict...not by a huge margin but still should climb. The Cards collapse but they will regress and the Reds will get better and more consistent.

I agree with you that the starting pitching is unsustainably good right now but I do believe its perfectly plausible for the cards to have all 5 pitchers with era's under 4.

What the cards have going for them is that their bullpen is unsustainably bad right now(though recently something seems to have changed with the young players). And there offense isn't producing the way it will. Allen Craig has 1 homerun and Freese has 0. That means there is roughly 40 homeruns left to be hit by them. Holliday BA is way below normal. Yadi, Beltran, and Matt C, are the only one who are keeping up with their career averages.

[ThatPitchIsDunn]

As far as head to head is concerned, the Cards only have three more against the Reds at home. They have 10 against Cincy in GABP. Throughout the summer, that's a quick way to gain ground and pass the Birdies.

[westofyou]

http://joustthefacts.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/03/21/simpson_end_near.jpg

[Tony Cloninger]

If the Cards win the division and the Brewers take the wildcard, would you be happy just having a winning record? J/k

Can I unlike this? :laugh:

Think how bad it was before the WC or divisional play.

1993 Giants winning 103 games and sitting at home.
2nd place in the AL East from 1977-1980.....2nd/3rd place teams would win 90+ games and sitting at home.

At least there is a WC and it seems to work every year for the Cardinals.

[RedsfaninMT]

I agree with you that the starting pitching is unsustainably good right now but I do believe its perfectly plausible for the cards to have all 5 pitchers with era's under 4.

What the cards have going for them is that their bullpen is unsustainably bad right now(though recently something seems to have changed with the young players). And there offense isn't producing the way it will. Allen Craig has 1 homerun and Freese has 0. That means there is roughly 40 homeruns left to be hit by them. Holliday BA is way below normal. Yadi, Beltran, and Matt C, are the only one who are keeping up with their career averages.

I think it HIGHLY unlikely the entire Cards staff finishes with sub-4.00 ERa's. You are arguing against yourself a bit here. If the bats return to normal and the pen returns to normal, it is every bit as likely the starters will also return to normal.

The Reds are not in an entirely different boat. Bruce has 1 HR, and Mez has 0. Votto has had sporadic power as compared to year's past. It's highly unlikely Hannigan will return and bat sub .200. A long season means trends average out. Every once in awhile, a player has a career best or worst year, but not an entire line-up. The long season takes care of those anomalies and the best team will win the division.

[Salukifan2]

I think it HIGHLY unlikely the entire Cards staff finishes with sub-4.00 ERa's. You are arguing against yourself a bit here. If the bats return to normal and the pen returns to normal, it is every bit as likely the starters will also return to normal.

The Reds are not in an entirely different boat. Bruce has 1 HR, and Mez has 0. Votto has had sporadic power as compared to year's past. It's highly unlikely Hannigan will return and bat sub .200. A long season means trends average out. Every once in awhile, a player has a career best or worst year, but not an entire line-up. The long season takes care of those anomalies and the best team will win the division.

I believe its unlikely too. But, What is normal for the cards pitching staff? Homer Bailey has a normal. His normal is 15-20 starts a season with a +4 era. Will those be his numbers this year? highly unlikely. There is no normal for Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller. Jaime Garcia's normal is a sub 4 ERA. Wainwright is wainwright. And WEstbrook is in a contract year, he will leave everything out on the field.

I agree on Bruce, but not Mez. He has yet to prove he has a major league bat.

Side-note: I dont understand why people don't think Lance Lynn is the real deal. He's a horse who might be looking at his second straight All-Star game.

[RedsfaninMT]

Side-note: I dont understand why people don't think Lance Lynn is the real deal. He's a horse who might be looking at his second straight All-Star game.[/QUOTE]

For me personally, I know of very few pitchers who suddenly become lights out in the Bigs when they struggled a bit in the minors. A career minor league 3.69 ERA and WHIP of 1.333 does not scream success on the big league level. Yes, he was dominant in his first few years, but the two years before being called up show a 4.77 and 3.84 ERA in 2010 and 2011, with accompanying 1.378 and 1.387 WHIP, both while in Memphis.

He has done remarkably well, especially last year when his WHIP was 1.318. At some point, either his Hits/Walks will need to improve or the numbers will start to catch up with him. I remember having similar fears over Cueto, but he substantially dropped his WHIP. Can Lynn do that? Absolutely, but to me it defies what he did in the minors.

[Salukifan2]

Side-note: I dont understand why people don't think Lance Lynn is the real deal. He's a horse who might be looking at his second straight All-Star game.

For me personally, I know of very few pitchers who suddenly become lights out in the Bigs when they struggled a bit in the minors. A career minor league 3.69 ERA and WHIP of 1.333 does not scream success on the big league level. Yes, he was dominant in his first few years, but the two years before being called up show a 4.77 and 3.84 ERA in 2010 and 2011, with accompanying 1.378 and 1.387 WHIP, both while in Memphis.

He has done remarkably well, especially last year when his WHIP was 1.318. At some point, either his Hits/Walks will need to improve or the numbers will start to catch up with him. I remember having similar fears over Cueto, but he substantially dropped his WHIP. Can Lynn do that? Absolutely, but to me it defies what he did in the minors.[/QUOTE]

Couldn't agree more. The reason his high whip hasn't killed him imo opinion is because his k/9 is 9.5. As he matures i see his whip coming down. We'll see though

[757690]

Lance Lynn lost around thirty pounds in the off season, and looks like a different pitcher, literally. His extra weight might have a reason for his less than impressive numbers in the minors. This could be a rareinstance where "the bet shape of my life" actually transforms a pitcher into a better pitcher.

[BluegrassRedleg]

Lance Lynn lost around thirty pounds in the off season, and looks like a different pitcher, literally. His extra weight might have a reason for his less than impressive numbers in the minors. This could be a rareinstance where "the bet shape of my life" actually transforms a pitcher into a better pitcher.

I didn't even recognize him first time I saw him pitch this season. Thought it was another guy.

[MikeThierry]

As I remember, Wainwright never had spectacular minir league numbers and Miller was horrible in AAA.

Another pleasant suprise is that the Cardinals defense has been better than I thought they would be. Matt Carpenter has actually had plus defense at 2B thus far. I hate using error rate but as a team, they are near the tops in least amount of errors. Kozma also hasnt fallen apart defensively yet either.

[Salukifan2]

As I remember, Wainwright never had spectacular minir league numbers and Miller was horrible in AAA.

Another pleasant suprise is that the Cardinals defense has been better than I thought they would be. Matt Carpenter has actually had plus defense at 2B thus far. I hate using error rate but as a team, they are near the tops in least amount of errors. Kozma also hasnt fallen apart defensively yet either.

Thats because every cardinal except Kozma and Matt C have horrible range. If the only play you can make are the balls 3 feet on either side of you then youre probably not going to make many errors.

[SirFelixCat]

I guess this is what happens when you merge the forums. Gotta take the good with this stuff too, I guess. :shrug:

[MikeThierry]

I think it HIGHLY unlikely the entire Cards staff finishes with sub-4.00 ERa's. You are arguing against yourself a bit here. If the bats return to normal and the pen returns to normal, it is every bit as likely the starters will also return to normal.

The Reds are not in an entirely different boat. Bruce has 1 HR, and Mez has 0. Votto has had sporadic power as compared to year's past. It's highly unlikely Hannigan will return and bat sub .200. A long season means trends average out. Every once in awhile, a player has a career best or worst year, but not an entire line-up. The long season takes care of those anomalies and the best team will win the division.

Why do you think that or why is it highly unlikely? The Cardinals starters had a 3.62 ERA last season even with all the injuries they had, which put them better than the Reds at 4th in baseball. I feel that their starting staff is actually better than last years with the addition of Miller and a better Adam Wainwright. It's fully plausible in my mind that they could have a starting rotation in the top 5 in ERA like they did last year. No it will not be the crazy low ERA they're posting up now but I could see them finishing around what they did last year. In fact, I think many posters here kind of underrate the Cardinals starters.

[dougdirt]

The Cardinals pitchers play in a hitters heaven in AA Springfield. The ball flies out of that park like Coors in the mid 90's. Even in a league that is hitter friendly, Springfield stands out. Memphis is actually a "pitchers park" for the league, but the league itself is incredibly hitter friendly. Lynn had good AA/AAA numbers, but his ERA was iffy one year in AAA in a very big hitters environment that is the PCL. Let's be sure to realize that St. Louis is a very pitcher friendly park. Lynn posted a 3.78 ERA and yet just had a 102 ERA+, which is barely better than league average.

Is Lynn as good as he has been this season? No, he isn't. But is he going to turn into some bad pitcher? No, that probably isn't likely.

[Plus Plus]

Why do you think that or why is it highly unlikely? The Cardinals starters had a 3.62 ERA last season even with all the injuries they had, which put them better than the Reds at 4th in baseball. I feel that their starting staff is actually better than last years with the addition of Miller and a better Adam Wainwright. It's fully plausible in my mind that they could have a starting rotation in the top 5 in ERA like they did last year. No it will not be the crazy low ERA they're posting up now but I could see them finishing around what they did last year. In fact, I think many posters here kind of underrate the Cardinals starters.

Jake Westbrook has an ERA of 1.07 and xFIP of 4.47. Maybe they do have a top 5 rotation, but it won't be because Westbrook led the league in ERA while walking as many people as he strikes out and stranding ~90% of runners.

[757690]

Why do you think that or why is it highly unlikely? The Cardinals starters had a 3.62 ERA last season even with all the injuries they had, which put them better than the Reds at 4th in baseball. I feel that their starting staff is actually better than last years with the addition of Miller and a better Adam Wainwright. It's fully plausible in my mind that they could have a starting rotation in the top 5 in ERA like they did last year. No it will not be the crazy low ERA they're posting up now but I could see them finishing around what they did last year. In fact, I think many posters here kind of underrate the Cardinals starters.

Take away Lohse, and the Cardinal starters had very close to a 4 ERA last season. No way Miller ends the season even close to a 2.86 ERA. Wainwright might be better this year, so he might replace Lohse's numbers, but even that is unlikely. The Cardinal rotation is a good one, but definitely not a great one over a full season. They are more likely to repeat last years numbers or do worse, then improve on them.

[dougdirt]

757690, it wouldn't be shocking if Miller did that. The guy is a former top pitching prospect in all of baseball. He has 54 strikeouts and 15 walks in 50.1 MLB innings. He has stuff and he has numbers to this point.

[MikeThierry]

Take away Lohse, and the Cardinal starters had very close to a 4 ERA last season. No way Miller ends the season even close to a 2.86 ERA. Wainwright might be better this year, so he might replace Lohse's numbers, but even that is unlikely. The Cardinal rotation is a good one, but definitely not a great one over a full season. They are more likely to repeat last years numbers or do worse, then improve on them.

Why would you take away Lohse performance from last year? It's almost as nonsensical of an argument as me saying take away Cueto's performance from the Reds last year and the Reds would have X starters ERA. Why is it unlikely that Wainwright will match Lohse's numbers from the past when in fact he's been better than Lohse his entire career and even better than Lohse career year last year. I don't understand why you aren't buying into Wainwright being fully healthy when he's shown no evidence of problems from TJ surgery and has been pretty much dominant all year. They also pitch in a rather pitcher friendly park so I see no issue with them repeating the kind of overall performance they had last year in the starting rotation.

[MikeThierry]

Also, you don't see Lynn having a slightly better year now that he's fully adjusted to a full year in the majors and lost weight?

[cincrazy]

This isn't going to be a popular opinion around these parts, but to me the Cardinals are the best team in the NL. They have the deepest pitching staff, with power arms up and down their ML roster and minors, they will solve their bullpen problems sooner or later (just like they did in 2011) and the offense... well, it's full of tough at-bats, what else is new. And they've got a guy like Taveras waiting to step in and make a huge impact at a moment's notice. I'm by no means forfeiting the division to them, the Reds are a damn good team in their own right. But the Cardinals are a force to be reckoned with, and I'm stunned the majority of "experts" didn't see as much in the offseason.

[MikeThierry]

This isn't going to be a popular opinion around these parts, but to me the Cardinals are the best team in the NL. They have the deepest pitching staff, with power arms up and down their ML roster and minors, they will solve their bullpen problems sooner or later (just like they did in 2011) and the offense... well, it's full of tough at-bats, what else is new. And they've got a guy like Taveras waiting to step in and make a huge impact at a moment's notice. I'm by no means forfeiting the division to them, the Reds are a damn good team in their own right. But the Cardinals are a force to be reckoned with, and I'm stunned the majority of "experts" didn't see as much in the offseason.

I honestly think that the bullpen problems the Cardinals faced in April are starting to iron themselves out. Carlos Martinez certainly looks legit. He can top 100 and in today's game he threw a 92-93 mph change up that fell off the table once it got to the plate. He looks like a major weapon to bring out but only time will tell on him. Rosenthal has pitched better as of late. Mujica has certainly stabilized the closer position for them though I'm not sold yet if he can maintain what he's doing now. Time will tell on him. I'm not saying that everything is hunky dory as there are still some issues. However, it looks like they'll figure it out a lot sooner this year than they did last year when they didn't figure it out until Julyish. I don't speak for all Cardinals fans as it pertains to how they feel, but I think many will agree with me that it went from a pen in April where you would close your eyes at the horror show to a pen now where there is cautious optimism.

[RedsfaninMT]

Why do you think that or why is it highly unlikely? The Cardinals starters had a 3.62 ERA last season even with all the injuries they had, which put them better than the Reds at 4th in baseball. I feel that their starting staff is actually better than last years with the addition of Miller and a better Adam Wainwright. It's fully plausible in my mind that they could have a starting rotation in the top 5 in ERA like they did last year. No it will not be the crazy low ERA they're posting up now but I could see them finishing around what they did last year. In fact, I think many posters here kind of underrate the Cardinals starters.

Okay, Mike, the entire staff finishes with sub 4.00 ERA (and that means every single pitcher goes below the 4.00 mark), and I'll be here to eat crow. Any one of them finishes over 4.00 (again HIGHLY likely), I expect you to do the same.

[RiverRat13]

757690, it wouldn't be shocking if Miller did that. The guy is a former top pitching prospect in all of baseball. He has 54 strikeouts and 15 walks in 50.1 MLB innings. He has stuff and he has numbers to this point.

This isn't directed at you Doug, but I thought it worth mentioning that Miller has been pretty dominant while only using two pitches. There were plenty of people on here who claimed that a starter couldn't get away with only two pitches. Miller may regress some, but his progress will be worth monitoring.

I had no clue Westbrook's K/BB ratio was so bad (1.06:1). Big time regression ahead for him.

[Salukifan2]

This isn't directed at you Doug, but I thought it worth mentioning that Miller has been pretty dominant while only using two pitches. There were plenty of people on here who claimed that a starter couldn't get away with only two pitches. Miller may regress some, but his progress will be worth monitoring.

I had no clue Westbrook's K/BB ratio was so bad (1.06:1). Big time regression ahead for him.

Re: miller. Fangraphs has an article up right now about miller and his use of only two pitches.

I know it says he uses two 99% of the time, but I will point out that he uses 1 90% of the time and that his fastball. I don't understand why Molina doesn't allow him to expend his repertoire more. If you remember Millers debut against the reds last year he threw 5 hitless inning and didn't allow a run in 6. In that game he used 4 pitches but hasn't done that once this year

[thatcoolguy_22]

Okay, Mike, the entire staff finishes with sub 4.00 ERA (and that means every single pitcher goes below the 4.00 mark), and I'll be here to eat crow. Any one of them finishes over 4.00 (again HIGHLY likely), I expect you to do the same.

Thats a terrible back pedal on a statement. So now every single player on the staff has to be above average. Every SP has to be a "#3" or better? The staff will probably finish with a sub 4 ERA, you just got caught making loose statements without looking at stats to back them up. :laugh:

[traderumor]

This isn't going to be a popular opinion around these parts, but to me the Cardinals are the best team in the NL. They have the deepest pitching staff, with power arms up and down their ML roster and minors, they will solve their bullpen problems sooner or later (just like they did in 2011) and the offense... well, it's full of tough at-bats, what else is new. And they've got a guy like Taveras waiting to step in and make a huge impact at a moment's notice. I'm by no means forfeiting the division to them, the Reds are a damn good team in their own right. But the Cardinals are a force to be reckoned with, and I'm stunned the majority of "experts" didn't see as much in the offseason.I don't agree with your take on the offense or the bullpen mojo fix. The offense is very thin right now. It is performing well currently because of an anomaly of well-timed hits that I believe is randomness, not skill.

I also don't assume that they will be able to repeat the bullpen fix that they did in 2011. Randomness will have to catch up with them at some point (like Edward Mojica is currently enjoying). I'm glad we don't have to rely on finding arms off the scrap heap late in the season to fix a major system that is broken like the bullpen.

The Cards are where they are right now due to timely hitting (randomness) and the starting rotation overperforming a bit to mask the bullpen temporarily.

[Salukifan2]

I don't agree with your take on the offense or the bullpen mojo fix. The offense is very thin right now. It is performing well currently because of an anomaly of well-timed hits that I believe is randomness, not skill.

I also don't assume that they will be able to repeat the bullpen fix that they did in 2011. Randomness will have to catch up with them at some point (like Edward Mojica is currently enjoying). I'm glad we don't have to rely on finding arms off the scrap heap late in the season to fix a major system that is broken like the bullpen.

The Cards are where they are right now due to timely hitting (randomness) and the starting rotation overperforming a bit to mask the bullpen temporarily.

I really dont think that the second best offense in baseball last year is scoring from luck.

Also what do you call Broxton. When the reds got him he was the king of the scrap heap. He was up there with heath bell. also, what are the scrap heap arms the cards have brought into the bullpen?

I realize that you're looking at situation with red tinted glasses as you should but in a objective discussion that doesn't work

[RedsfaninMT]

Thats a terrible back pedal on a statement. So now every single player on the staff has to be above average. Every SP has to be a "#3" or better? The staff will probably finish with a sub 4 ERA, you just got caught making loose statements without looking at stats to back them up. :laugh:

No, I did not. The thread started with one of the Cards fans stating that the entire starting staff had pitchers with sub 4.00 ERA's. I said that was highly unlikely to keep up the entire year. AND it is. I didn't change my parameters one iota, but thanks for caring.

Found it...

Here's the post from Salukian I responded to. Please show how I was inconsistent..."I agree with you that the starting pitching is unsustainably good right now but I do believe its perfectly plausible for the cards to have all 5 pitchers with era's under 4.

[RedsfaninMT]

Thats a terrible back pedal on a statement. So now every single player on the staff has to be above average. Every SP has to be a "#3" or better? The staff will probably finish with a sub 4 ERA, you just got caught making loose statements without looking at stats to back them up. :laugh:

To me, it's very easy to bet on the Cards starting staff finishing with an ERA under 4.00; that is a no brainer. I am guessing the Reds staff will as well.

[kaldaniels]

No, I did not. The thread started with one of the Cards fans stating that the entire starting staff had pitchers with sub 4.00 ERA's. I said that was highly unlikely to keep up the entire year. AND it isn't. I didn't change my parameters one iota, but thanks for caring.

Found it...

Here's the post from Salukian I responded to. Please show how I was inconsistent..."I agree with you that the starting pitching is unsustainably good right now but I do believe its perfectly plausible for the cards to have all 5 pitchers with era's under 4.


The apostrophe in ERA's shows you are correct. You were referring to multiple ERAs, not the staff ERA.

[bucksfan2]

The Cards are going to lose 60+ games this season. Sometimes it feels like they are never going to lose but they will.

The Reds just came through a pretty devastating 20 games in a row stretch that ended with trips to Washington and St. Louis. I haven't lost confidence in the Reds winning the division but if August comes and St. Louis still hasn't lost then I will be concerned.

[joshua]

The Reds haven't started very hot recently. I'm not worried about the team at all as long as Cueto can come back and contribute, we get decent production out of LF and we can stay healthy.

But I do think there needs to be an overhaul of hitting coaches up and down the entire organization. Watching other teams bring up rookies that are tough outs and can hit with RISP is becoming beyond frustrating. We're still a team that only has 2 or 3 bats going at a time.

[Rijo's Ghost]

I don't agree with your take on the offense or the bullpen mojo fix. The offense is very thin right now. It is performing well currently because of an anomaly of well-timed hits that I believe is randomness, not skill.

I also don't assume that they will be able to repeat the bullpen fix that they did in 2011. Randomness will have to catch up with them at some point (like Edward Mojica is currently enjoying). I'm glad we don't have to rely on finding arms off the scrap heap late in the season to fix a major system that is broken like the bullpen.

The Cards are where they are right now due to timely hitting (randomness) and the starting rotation overperforming a bit to mask the bullpen temporarily.
Randomness (variation) does not mean that the staff will have a 7 ERA for a stretch because they're above expectation now. It means that it's likely they will pitch to their true talent level from here on out.

The offensive numbers have already began to do so, both overall and w/RISP. The Cardinals now have a higher team OPS than the Reds.

[Salukifan2]

No, I did not. The thread started with one of the Cards fans stating that the entire starting staff had pitchers with sub 4.00 ERA's. I said that was highly unlikely to keep up the entire year. AND it is. I didn't change my parameters one iota, but thanks for caring.

Found it...

Here's the post from Salukian I responded to. Please show how I was inconsistent..."I agree with you that the starting pitching is unsustainably good right now but I do believe its perfectly plausible for the cards to have all 5 pitchers with era's under 4.


I didn't start the thread. The thread has an author and its not me.

However, I stand what I said. The whole league seems to be pitching well. The k rates are insane. We may be looking at a mini 1968. Or May could change everything.

[traderumor]

I really dont think that the second best offense in baseball last year is scoring from luck.

Also what do you call Broxton. When the reds got him he was the king of the scrap heap. He was up there with heath bell. also, what are the scrap heap arms the cards have brought into the bullpen?

I realize that you're looking at situation with red tinted glasses as you should but in a objective discussion that doesn't workAnd there have been some significant changes to your offense, no? Kozma for Furcal? Carpenter for Skip Shumacher? Craig's and Beltran's injury proneness? My point was based on why the Cards have been winning games this season, which is based on the randomness of "timely" hitting. Guess we'll see if the offense is second best this year, I see some significant downgrading.

BTW, it kills me that you insult me as totally lacking objectivity when you are evaluating your own team. So, you're the objective one, huh? :lol:

[Rijo's Ghost]

And there have been some significant changes to your offense, no? Kozma for Furcal? Carpenter for Skip Shumacher? Craig's and Beltran's injury proneness? My point was based on why the Cards have been winning games this season, which is based on the randomness of "timely" hitting. Guess we'll see if the offense is second best this year, I see some significant downgrading.

BTW, it kills me that you insult me as totally lacking objectivity when you are evaluating your own team. So, you're the objective one, huh? :lol:

Furcal was a name only last year. He had an OPS+ of 85 with bad defense. Schumaker was 94 with bad defense. Craig missed a few weeks with a broken bone and Beltran missed no time, both are healthy this year.

Those are some pretty bad examples.

[757690]

Furcal was a name only last year. He had an OPS+ of 85 with bad defense. Schumaker was 94 with bad defense. Craig missed a few weeks with a broken bone and Beltran missed no time, both are healthy this year.

Those are some pretty bad examples.

Good points.

But I always assumed the Cardinal offense would decrease this season, based on players like Jay, Craig, Carpenter, Descalso, Kozma and maybe even Freese declining due to overexposure. Freese may be the real deal, but the other guys have gotten by on the league not knowing the, too well. As they play more, and a book develops on them, their numbers will level off or sometimes even crater.

It looks like that is happening.

[traderumor]

Furcal was a name only last year. He had an OPS+ of 85 with bad defense. Schumaker was 94 with bad defense. Craig missed a few weeks with a broken bone and Beltran missed no time, both are healthy this year.

Those are some pretty bad examples.So the replacements for those named are improvements, since the person I was responding to (which wasn't you) was using last year as the point of departure? I say they are downgrades. Craig and Beltran both, over their careers, have been injury prone. It is pretty basic to not look at a season in isolation when you have career information at your disposal.

[Rijo's Ghost]

Good points.

But I always assumed the Cardinal offense would decrease this season, based on players like Jay, Craig, Carpenter, Descalso, Kozma and maybe even Freese declining due to overexposure. Freese may be the real deal, but the other guys have gotten by on the league not knowing the, too well. As they play more, and a book develops on them, their numbers will level off or sometimes even crater.

It looks like that is happening.
A bit of regression from Craig and Freese I expected. Carpenter should see a bit of a bump, he's a very good hitter. Descalso and Kozma are pitiful.

[Rijo's Ghost]

So the replacements for those named are improvements, since the person I was responding to (which wasn't you) was using last year as the point of departure? I say they are downgrades. Craig and Beltran both, over their careers, have been injury prone. It is pretty basic to not look at a season in isolation when you have career information at your disposal.

Craig for his career has had 1 injury. Beltran got hurt 3.5 years ago, and has played 142 and 151 games the last 2 seasons.

Kozma is a lateral move with Furcal and Carpenter is a big upgrade over Schumaker/Descalso playing every day.

For the sake of conversation, let's say that Craig and Beltran are injury prone. This year they have Adams and Taveras waiting in the wings. It's an incredibly deep ballclub at nearly every position.

[Salukifan2]

No, I did not. The thread started with one of the Cards fans stating that the entire starting staff had pitchers with sub 4.00 ERA's. I said that was highly unlikely to keep up the entire year. AND it is. I didn't change my parameters one iota, but thanks for caring.

Found it...

Here's the post from Salukian I responded to. Please show how I was inconsistent..."I agree with you that the starting pitching is unsustainably good right now but I do believe its perfectly plausible for the cards to have all 5 pitchers with era's under 4.


I didn't start the thread. The thread has an author and its not me.

However, I stand what I said. The whole league seems to be pitching well. The k rates are insane. We may be looking at a mini 1968. Or may could change everything.

[dougdirt]

This isn't directed at you Doug, but I thought it worth mentioning that Miller has been pretty dominant while only using two pitches. There were plenty of people on here who claimed that a starter couldn't get away with only two pitches. Miller may regress some, but his progress will be worth monitoring.

I had no clue Westbrook's K/BB ratio was so bad (1.06:1). Big time regression ahead for him.

Miller has a change up, but he may only throw it 2-3 times per game.

[traderumor]

Craig for his career has had 1 injury. Beltran got hurt 3.5 years ago, and has played 142 and 151 games the last 2 seasons.

Kozma is a lateral move with Furcal and Carpenter is a big upgrade over Schumaker/Descalso playing every day.

For the sake of conversation, let's say that Craig and Beltran are injury prone. This year they have Adams and Taveras waiting in the wings. It's an incredibly deep ballclub at nearly every position.LOL, yea one injury that lost him two months in one season, 4-6 months recovery from the same injury, and missed the beginning of the 2012 season. Maybe not injury prone, but a significant injury history. If you're going to chide my argumentation, be careful of your loose use of facts.

Beltran can barely run on his knees.

[Rijo's Ghost]

LOL, yea one injury that lost him two months in one season, 4-6 months recovery from the same injury, and missed the beginning of the 2012 season. Maybe not injury prone, but a significant injury history. If you're going to chide my argumentation, be careful of your loose use of facts.

Beltran can barely run on his knees.

I suppose we just have differing views on injuries. To me, injury prone guys are the ones that are frequently banged up requiring a couple DL stops each year. Something unavoidable like broken bone I don't really pay much attention to.

[Salukifan2]

Miller has a change up, but he may only throw it 2-3 times per game.

Ive watched three of Miller's starts and i can't even remember him throwing a change once. He did against the reds at the end of last season but i havent seen it since. Thats got to change at some point.

[757690]

I suppose we just have differing views on injuries. To me, injury prone guys are the ones that are frequently banged up requiring a couple DL stops each year. Something unavoidable like broken bone I don't really pay much attention to.

Beltran is the very definition of injury proned. He's been injured in KC, NY and now the Cards. He's injured everything from his right quad to his knees to now his toe.

[Rijo's Ghost]

Beltran is the very definition of injury proned. He's been injured in KC, NY and now the Cards. He's injured everything from his right quad to his knees to now his toe.

He's also been in the league forever. Outside of 09-10 with his surgery, he's been good for at least 140 games a year. Hell, he's played more games than Votto over the last 2 years. Guys play banged up all the time. I don't see why Beltran having surgery 3.5 years ago means he's due for an injury.

[Salukifan2]

Beltran is the very definition of injury proned. He's been injured in KC, NY and now the Cards. He's injured everything from his right quad to his knees to now his toe.

He played 151 games last year, his first in STL. He has missed very little time this season from his broken toe. Its also his pinky toe, no player would hit the DL or even miss a week from a broken pinky toe

[cincrazy]

I don't agree with your take on the offense or the bullpen mojo fix. The offense is very thin right now. It is performing well currently because of an anomaly of well-timed hits that I believe is randomness, not skill.

I also don't assume that they will be able to repeat the bullpen fix that they did in 2011. Randomness will have to catch up with them at some point (like Edward Mojica is currently enjoying). I'm glad we don't have to rely on finding arms off the scrap heap late in the season to fix a major system that is broken like the bullpen.

The Cards are where they are right now due to timely hitting (randomness) and the starting rotation overperforming a bit to mask the bullpen temporarily.

Every year everyone on this board says the Cards' hitting is a result of "randomness" and "luck," and every year it's the same story. They grind teams down. They have a roster full of professional hitters, and it's no accident that it ranks among the best in baseball every year. And even if they do fall off, they have guys in the minors ready to step in at key spots, such as 2B and RF. The rotation certainly won't keep up this level of production, but it's a good one. And we will just have to agree to disagree on that bullpen. I see a bunch of power arms, not guys off the scrap heap like David Weathers.

[scott91575]

He played 151 games last year, his first in STL. He has missed very little time this season from his broken toe. Its also his pinky toe, no player would hit the DL or even miss a week from a broken pinky toe

He may have played a lot of games, but IIRC he had a hand injury that caused his July and August stats to be poor. So while he does not always spend a bunch of time on the DL, it does often affect his performance. He is also not getting any younger.

[MikeThierry]

I really dont think that the second best offense in baseball last year is scoring from luck.

Also what do you call Broxton. When the reds got him he was the king of the scrap heap. He was up there with heath bell. also, what are the scrap heap arms the cards have brought into the bullpen?

I realize that you're looking at situation with red tinted glasses as you should but in a objective discussion that doesn't work

For the past two years now, I have been scratching my head at posters here somehow dumbfounded about the Cards offense. According to this article, taking in park factors, the Cardinals have had an offense on par with the Yankees for a couple of years now.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2013/story/_/id/9014572/st-louis-cardinals-again-best-offense-national-league-mlb

[Dom Heffner]

Every year everyone on this board says the Cards' hitting is a result of "randomness" and "luck," and every year it's the same story. They grind teams down. They have a roster full of professional hitters, and it's no accident that it ranks among the best in baseball every year. And even if they do fall off, they have guys in the minors ready to step in at key spots, such as 2B and RF. The rotation certainly won't keep up this level of production, but it's a good one. And we will just have to agree to disagree on that bullpen. I see a bunch of power arms, not guys off the scrap heap like David Weathers.

This.

And some of their guys who normally produce, aren't. They'll come around.

And when Beltran or Craig go down with an injury, Matt Adams is right there.

I'll never be mistaken for a Cards fan, but I like their lineup more than ours.

[cincrazy]

Quite frankly, I love it. I see two really good teams that will be battling at the top of the division for quite some time. We aren't going to win the division every year, that's just a fact. But the competition is awesome, and testing our mettle against the Cards year after year in tight pennant races can't help but ready us for postseason battles against other teams.

[MikeThierry]

Allen Craig is sort of an oddity right now. It looks his power is coming back but he's projected to hit 5 home runs but drive in 131 RBI's, lol. He's still very productive despite his lack of power right now. That said, it was about this time last year when he came back from the DL and managed to put up 20+ home runs. I think his power will come back. Plus, with Adams on the bench, I think the Cardinals will see decent power numbers over the course of the year from the 1B position.

[Salukifan2]

And there have been some significant changes to your offense, no? Kozma for Furcal? Carpenter for Skip Shumacher? Craig's and Beltran's injury proneness? My point was based on why the Cards have been winning games this season, which is based on the randomness of "timely" hitting. Guess we'll see if the offense is second best this year, I see some significant downgrading.

BTW, it kills me that you insult me as totally lacking objectivity when you are evaluating your own team. So, you're the objective one, huh? :lol:

You are being subjective. If you look at the most basic stats you will see that your comment about Carpenter is a complete fallacy. If you look up allen craig's minor league numbers you will see that he has had 20+ hr power his whole career. Kozma and Furcal are both bad making your point about them a wash.

All this talk of regression and injuries can just as easily be flipped back on the reds you realize? Why don't we start with votto? He had a miniscus injury almost a year ago and he still isn't back to full strength. Will he ever be? Is he going to be a 15-20 homerun guy now? because if he is, his walk rate will go down because pitchers won't be afraid to go right at him. The injury/regression bug already hit the reds in Ryan Ludwick. Shin Soo-Choo? GABP will help but do you really think he is going to OPS 200 points higher than his career average?

[Salukifan2]

Allen Craig is sort of an oddity right now. It looks his power is coming back but he's projected to hit 5 home runs but drive in 131 RBI's, lol. He's still very productive despite his lack of power right now. That said, it was about this time last year when he came back from the DL and managed to put up 20+ home runs. I think his power will come back. Plus, with Adams on the bench, I think the Cardinals will see decent power numbers over the course of the year from the 1B position.

Craig is also on pace for over fifty doubles.

[VR]

Nothing gives me more confidence than looking at Jake Westbrook's numbers. 1.07 earnie....1.40 WHIP.....17bb.....18k's.

W.O.W.

[Homer Bailey]

Mike, delete that post containing the ESPN insider information. You can't post that stuff in here.

[scott91575]

Allen Craig is sort of an oddity right now. It looks his power is coming back but he's projected to hit 5 home runs but drive in 131 RBI's, lol. He's still very productive despite his lack of power right now. That said, it was about this time last year when he came back from the DL and managed to put up 20+ home runs. I think his power will come back. Plus, with Adams on the bench, I think the Cardinals will see decent power numbers over the course of the year from the 1B position.

Not that I think he is bad, but he is sort of the poster boy for high average with RISP. He is hitting .412 w/RISP and .625 w/RISP and 2 out. His BABIP is also .355 while not hitting for power. So his luck stats are pretty high right now, and is probably not the guy you want to point to in order to refute other's ideas that the Cards are due for a correction.

He certainly could find his stroke and hit for more power while his other stats normalize out, but the luck stats (which some here are pointing to) are not in your favor.

With that said, I still think the Cards are the team to beat. Yet they do have a high BA w/RISP and a low opponent BA w/RISP. Those things tend to trend back to overall average as the season progresses. The question is will the Cards be able to improve on their averages to minimize that fact. With the hitting I do think they are a tad below average. With pitching, not so much.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Since it's an ESPN insider story, I'll copy and paste the article:

Just so you know Mike, it's frowned upon by the admins to post insider articles. Or any "pay" type of articles like from baseball america.

~edit~ Nevermind....Homer already caught it.

[LeDoux]

I thought much of the "Cardinal luck" was related to injury-prone players playing more games than expected; not so much their production when they are in the lineup.

Also, for the record, I feel no need to justify my assessments of other teams to fans of those other teams. I don't mind debating here and there, of course. But the expectation that I must be objective in my analysis regarding an enemy ballclub is annoying. Doesn't the term "fan[antic]" imply some level of partiality?

[scott91575]

You are being subjective. If you look at the most basic stats you will see that your comment about Carpenter is a complete fallacy. If you look up allen craig's minor league numbers you will see that he has had 20+ hr power his whole career. Kozma and Furcal are both bad making your point about them a wash.

All this talk of regression and injuries can just as easily be flipped back on the reds you realize? Why don't we start with votto? He had a miniscus injury almost a year ago and he still isn't back to full strength. Will he ever be? Is he going to be a 15-20 homerun guy now? because if he is, his walk rate will go down because pitchers won't be afraid to go right at him. The injury/regression bug already hit the reds in Ryan Ludwick. Shin Soo-Choo? GABP will help but do you really think he is going to OPS 200 points higher than his career average?

There is a difference with Votto and Ludwick. The Votto thing is already in place. The Ludwick thing is already in place. So that doesn't change where the Reds are at right now, and should only get better or at worst stay the same as the year goes on. Choo should return to norm some, but yes, GABP should give him a bump.

[Boss-Hog]

Mike, delete that post containing the ESPN insider information. You can't post that stuff in here.


Just so you know Mike, it's frowned upon by the admins to post insider articles. Or any "pay" type of articles like from baseball america.

~edit~ Nevermind....Homer already caught it.

I took care of it. Thanks to the person who reported it, as well as these two posts in this thread.

As a reminder, you are not allowed to post any content that you must pay to access.

[MikeThierry]

I apologize for posting the content of that article. It didn't occur to me at the time that it was not allowed on this forum.

[MikeThierry]

Not that I think he is bad, but he is sort of the poster boy for high average with RISP. He is hitting .412 w/RISP and .625 w/RISP and 2 out. His BABIP is also .355 while not hitting for power. So his luck stats are pretty high right now, and is probably not the guy you want to point to in order to refute other's ideas that the Cards are due for a correction.

He certainly could find his stroke and hit for more power while his other stats normalize out, but the luck stats (which some here are pointing to) are not in your favor.

With that said, I still think the Cards are the team to beat. Yet they do have a high BA w/RISP and a low opponent BA w/RISP. Those things tend to trend back to overall average as the season progresses. The question is will the Cards be able to improve on their averages to minimize that fact. With the hitting I do think they are a tad below average. With pitching, not so much.

I wasn't really refuting anything. I was just saying his season has been odd from a production standpoint. That said, I think he led baseball last year hitting .400 with RISP. In fact, since he came up in 2011, he's been one of the best if not the best RBI per AB guy in the majors. Three years since his call up, people are still waiting for regression from him in this regard but it hasn't happened yet. He's just an overall good hitter that doesn't freeze up or get stressed in an RBI situations. I don't believe in clutch players but I do believe there are players that handle stressful situations better than others. Craig is one of those guys in my opinion.

[traderumor]

You are being subjective. If you look at the most basic stats you will see that your comment about Carpenter is a complete fallacy. If you look up allen craig's minor league numbers you will see that he has had 20+ hr power his whole career. Kozma and Furcal are both bad making your point about them a wash.

All this talk of regression and injuries can just as easily be flipped back on the reds you realize? Why don't we start with votto? He had a miniscus injury almost a year ago and he still isn't back to full strength. Will he ever be? Is he going to be a 15-20 homerun guy now? because if he is, his walk rate will go down because pitchers won't be afraid to go right at him. The injury/regression bug already hit the reds in Ryan Ludwick. Shin Soo-Choo? GABP will help but do you really think he is going to OPS 200 points higher than his career average?Furcal was not good last year, but it can be argued that he could have rebounded to be an above average hitter for his position. Kozma has nor ever will be any good, so it is not a wash. A healthy Furcal would most likely win in a Kozma vs. Furcal contest.

Carpenter is not good defensively and is overperforming with the bat.

And again, you being a Cardinals fan opining on the Cardinals players and calling me out as being subjective---well, its hilarious, in a frustrating sense.

[traderumor]

BTW, I am not benefitting from the posturing of the Cardinals fans on this board. I keep on being told its a benefit, I still fail to see it. I feel like Carla felt in Cheers when the Yankees fan came in her bar and started insulting the Red Sox.

[*BaseClogger*]

BTW, I am not benefitting from the posturing of the Cardinals fans on this board. I keep on being told its a benefit, I still fail to see it. I feel like Carla felt in Cheers when the Yankees fan came in her bar and started insulting the Red Sox.

Then ignore them...

[LeDoux]

BTW, I am not benefitting from the posturing of the Cardinals fans on this board. I keep on being told its a benefit, I still fail to see it. I feel like Carla felt in Cheers when the Yankees fan came in her bar and started insulting the Red Sox.

I liken it to the American tourist who goes overseas and complains that their favorite coffee brand is not available and cannot understand why no one is speaking English.

[*BaseClogger*]

I liken it to the American tourist who goes overseas and complains that their favorite coffee brand is not available and cannot understand why no one is speaking English.

I liken it to Americans who complain at Disney World that there are "too many damn foreigners" walking around in *THEIR* amusement park...

[LeDoux]

I liken it to Americans who complain at Disney World that there are "too many damn foreigners" walking around in *THEIR* amusement park...

There is a fairly serious accusation implied in this, O' defender of MLB egalitarianism. Also, I did not know Disney World was advertised as "for Americans, by Americans."

[MattyHo4Life]

BTW, I am not benefitting from the posturing of the Cardinals fans on this board.

What??? TR...haven't you been benefiting from the checks that I've been sending you for the last 11 years? Ummmm...at least I think I've been sending them. ;)

[cincrazy]

BTW, I am not benefitting from the posturing of the Cardinals fans on this board. I keep on being told its a benefit, I still fail to see it. I feel like Carla felt in Cheers when the Yankees fan came in her bar and started insulting the Red Sox.

I don't know of a Cardinals fan on this board that I don't get along with. They're all reasonable and bring great discussion to the board. We're all adults here, I don't see the need to treat them like they're on the outside of some "cool" high school clique.

[mth123]

I like the Cards guys on here, but I'm happy Travis Wood shut that offense down for the night. Cubs 2 Cards 1.

[traderumor]

You can pile on all you want. Going against the grain is one of my gifts. Looks like I don'tget to be in the group hug.

[cincrazy]

You can pile on all you want. Going against the grain is one of my gifts. Looks like I don'tget to be in the group hug.

Not only are you in the group hug, you're right in the middle of it :thumbup:

[Tornon]

I never did like trading away Travis Wood

[LeDoux]

Truly, I think if many here spent a significant time in the Sundeck, opinions might change. Mike T. is NOT the norm in my experience.

[RedEye]

Carpenter is not good defensively and is overperforming with the bat.


Just to return to baseball discussion for a second... how is Carpenter overperforming with the bat? His OPS (.790) is actually South of what it was in his rookie year (.828). He's not ever going to set the world ablaze, but he's a nice little player with position versatility and decent plate discipline IMO.

[757690]

Fearless prediction:

We won't see too many Card fans on this board until the Cards win again.

[MikeThierry]

Fearless prediction:

We won't see too many Card fans on this board until the Cards win again.

False...

[MikeThierry]

Furcal was not good last year, but it can be argued that he could have rebounded to be an above average hitter for his position. Kozma has nor ever will be any good, so it is not a wash. A healthy Furcal would most likely win in a Kozma vs. Furcal contest.

Carpenter is not good defensively and is overperforming with the bat.

And again, you being a Cardinals fan opining on the Cardinals players and calling me out as being subjective---well, its hilarious, in a frustrating sense.

How do you know what Kozma is at the MLB level when he hasn't even played a full MLB season? I admit that I would love to see the Cardinals have a long term option at SS but for a one year replacement he will be ok (come on Mo, give us Tulo). He's certainly a slightly better option than Cozart right now for the Reds. It's also a push to say that a healthy Furcal would most likely win in a Kozma vs. Furcal contest. At this point in their career, Kozma and Furcal are about the same kind of player with Kozma being slightly better defensively. Furcal has severely regressed both on offense and defense the past couple of years even when he was healthy.

Also, Matt Carpenter posting a 1.1 UZR at a position he never played and posting a 2.8 UZR at 3B this year would refute your position that he isn't a good defensive player. It's unknown if he can keep up his defensive production but he's certainly a better defensive option at 2B than the Cardinals have had in several years. He's not going to win a gold glove at any position but "not a good defensive" player he is not.

[MikeThierry]

BTW, I am not benefitting from the posturing of the Cardinals fans on this board. I keep on being told its a benefit, I still fail to see it. I feel like Carla felt in Cheers when the Yankees fan came in her bar and started insulting the Red Sox.

Sorry if debating your points are insulting you. My advice is stop having Reds fans post these kinds of threads and Cardinals fans such as myself won't have have to defend our team when we think they're unjustly being misrepresented. Do you notice any Cardinals fans creating threads on here propping up the Cardinals in any way?

[Brutus]

I don't know of a Cardinals fan on this board that I don't get along with. They're all reasonable and bring great discussion to the board. We're all adults here, I don't see the need to treat them like they're on the outside of some "cool" high school clique.

I dunno, I sort of get rubbed the wrong way when a fan of another team goes onto another board and tells the fans of that team *they* are the ones not being objective. I get where traderumor is coming from on that. It does sort of reek of being a little inconsiderate, among other things.

[MikeThierry]

I dunno, I sort of get rubbed the wrong way when a fan of another team goes onto another board and tells the fans of that team *they* are the ones not being objective. I get where traderumor is coming from on that. It does sort of reek of being a little inconsiderate, among other things.

Don't you think it's a bit of fair game though when a Reds fan opens up a thread about the Cardinals, the topic is being discussed, and someone isn't being objective on the issue? If one isn't truly being objective on the issue, why should he/she then get upset if he/she is being called out for it? It would be one thing if Cardinals fans invaded The ORG and created a ton of threads pumping up the Cards but they aren't. I would expect Reds fans to call me out on not being objective if I were in a thread about Reds players and I misrepresented a player or set of players on the Reds.

That said, Cardinals fans on this forum need to stop with the "not being objective" card on here. You aren't going to get it here, I've learned that through the years. Deal with it and keep pointing out statistics to back up your point. It would be like me going into the enemy camp and expect to be treated with kid gloves. Just like Dr. Strangelove, stop worrying and learn to love the bomb. Take the bad (which is not much at all) and the good (which is plenty) on this board if you're a Cardinals fan.

[mikdavrut]

The Cardinals fans that post here (Mike T. is the one whose posts I read most often and subsequently, am the most familiar with) do not bother me at all. Mike always seems to intelligently back up what he is saying in regards to his team and I have no problem whatsoever with that.

Of course, I am merely amongst the "sun deckers" that no doubt some posters wish had never been allowed access into the ORG (and in all honesty, I would have had no problem being forever a sun decker - I had no problem with it), so my opinion/posts probably matter very little to a lot of the long-term ORG members, and that's okay too.

I am not a Cardinals fan but I actually enjoy reading posts from the likes of Mike T. If nothing else, his (and others) posts teach me more about the team/players of that is certainly one of the Reds biggest rivals. So, not that my opinion matters a heck of a lot, but I hope you guys stick around and continue posting :beerme:

[Brutus]

Don't you think it's a bit of fair game though when a Reds fan opens up a thread about the Cardinals, the topic is being discussed, and someone isn't being objective on the issue? If one isn't truly being objective on the issue, why should he/she then get upset if he/she is being called out for it? It would be one thing if Cardinals fans invaded The ORG and created a ton of threads pumping up the Cards but they aren't. I would expect Reds fans to call me out on not being objective if I were in a thread about Reds players and I misrepresented a player or set of players on the Reds.

That said, Cardinals fans on this forum need to stop with the "not being objective" card on here. You aren't going to get it here, I've learned that through the years. Deal with it and keep pointing out statistics to back up your point. It would be like me going into the enemy camp and expect to be treated with kid gloves. Just like Dr. Strangelove, stop worrying and learn to love the bomb. Take the bad (which is not much at all) and the good (which is plenty) on this board if you're a Cardinals fan.

Fair game? Dunno, maybe. Hypocritical...also maybe.

The point is that I find it a little arrogant to suggest that the resident homers are the ones not being objective, but that the visiting Cards fans are above that. There is a whole lot of bias on both sides and acting like there isn't... again, rubs folks the wrong way.

[MikeThierry]

Fair game? Dunno, maybe. Hypocritical...also maybe.

The point is that I find it a little arrogant to suggest that the resident homers are the ones not being objective, but that the visiting Cards fans are above that. There is a whole lot of bias on both sides and acting like there isn't... again, rubs folks the wrong way.

No Cardinals fan here has said that they're the best team in baseball or that there aren't flaws with the team. We just think it's more than luck as to why the Cards are winning and have won for pretty much most of this past decade. If that means we're biased to think that there's logical explanations (like having some of the best offensive production for the past three years now as an example, statistically that is proven out), then so be it. It gets rather annoying from Cardinals fans perspective to consistently defend their team from the "luck monster" argument, which seems to be the default argument here at this forum. Of course Cardinals fans are going to point out things to other posters on this forum if it's going to be their main point of contention that it's all "just luck". I don't know, it just seems like one of the most lazy and nonsensical arguments out there to have luck as the main reason why they've been to the playoffs 9 times since 2000 and have been to the NLCS the past two years. It would be as stupid and lazy of an argument if I came in here blaming the Reds penchant for coming back late in games, winning a ton of walk off wins since 2010, and a perfectly healthy pitching staff last year all due to luck instead of the Reds being a very good team. I'm willing to lean on the "Reds are a very good team with the skill to accomplish what they have done" argument rather than the mythical luck monster that gets flagrantly thrown around in here on any number of topics. I've always found it pretty ironic that you have some of the most intelligent posters I've ever seen on an internet forum posting logical arguments using advance statistics that quantify how players play, teams win, etc; yet when it comes to the Cardinals and some other topics, they point to something that can't be quantified and is as just as much of a straw man as clutch or team chemistry as a main point as to why there is success.

[757690]

False...

I said many, and I still stand by that. I assumed you'd be back, ready for a good discussion, just not the multitudes of Card fans that start posting only when the Cards are winning. It's much worse on the Sun Deck.

[traderumor]

Don't you think it's a bit of fair game though when a Reds fan opens up a thread about the Cardinals, the topic is being discussed, and someone isn't being objective on the issue? If one isn't truly being objective on the issue, why should he/she then get upset if he/she is being called out for it? It would be one thing if Cardinals fans invaded The ORG and created a ton of threads pumping up the Cards but they aren't. I would expect Reds fans to call me out on not being objective if I were in a thread about Reds players and I misrepresented a player or set of players on the Reds.

That said, Cardinals fans on this forum need to stop with the "not being objective" card on here. You aren't going to get it here, I've learned that through the years. Deal with it and keep pointing out statistics to back up your point. It would be like me going into the enemy camp and expect to be treated with kid gloves. Just like Dr. Strangelove, stop worrying and learn to love the bomb. Take the bad (which is not much at all) and the good (which is plenty) on this board if you're a Cardinals fan.There's exactly where I was coming from, Mike. Thank you for recognizing it. But I wouldn't say its "objective" vs. "subjective," but there are obvious biases at work and they go both directions.

[traderumor]

Just to return to baseball discussion for a second... how is Carpenter overperforming with the bat? His OPS (.790) is actually South of what it was in his rookie year (.828). He's not ever going to set the world ablaze, but he's a nice little player with position versatility and decent plate discipline IMO.I don't think either is reflective of where his career numbers will be. I expect him to go south from anything he has put up in a very short time in the bigs thus far.

[traderumor]

How do you know what Kozma is at the MLB level when he hasn't even played a full MLB season? I admit that I would love to see the Cardinals have a long term option at SS but for a one year replacement he will be ok (come on Mo, give us Tulo). He's certainly a slightly better option than Cozart right now for the Reds. It's also a push to say that a healthy Furcal would most likely win in a Kozma vs. Furcal contest. At this point in their career, Kozma and Furcal are about the same kind of player with Kozma being slightly better defensively. Furcal has severely regressed both on offense and defense the past couple of years even when he was healthy.

Also, Matt Carpenter posting a 1.1 UZR at a position he never played and posting a 2.8 UZR at 3B this year would refute your position that he isn't a good defensive player. It's unknown if he can keep up his defensive production but he's certainly a better defensive option at 2B than the Cardinals have had in several years. He's not going to win a gold glove at any position but "not a good defensive" player he is not.Its rather obvious with Kozma. He's a utility infielder playing short every day. That is not helping your team. His range is pathetic. His bat is pedestrian. He's a stop gap and not even a good one at that. I don't know what that has to do with Cozart, but my dad can probably beat up your dad.

Carpenter can barely make a throw from third to first. Throwing out zone ratings right now is very, very premature. I hope the Cards are good with these guys as full time players, to be honest.

[traderumor]

Sorry if debating your points are insulting you. My advice is stop having Reds fans post these kinds of threads and Cardinals fans such as myself won't have have to defend our team when we think they're unjustly being misrepresented. Do you notice any Cardinals fans creating threads on here propping up the Cardinals in any way?They aren't debates, they are childish arguments on whose dad can beat up the other.

[757690]

No Cardinals fan here has said that they're the best team in baseball or that there aren't flaws with the team. We just think it's more than luck as to why the Cards are winning and have won for pretty much most of this past decade. If that means we're biased to think that there's logical explanations (like having some of the best offensive production for the past three years now as an example, statistically that is proven out), then so be it. It gets rather annoying from Cardinals fans perspective to consistently defend their team from the "luck monster" argument, which seems to be the default argument here at this forum. Of course Cardinals fans are going to point out things to other posters on this forum if it's going to be their main point of contention that it's all "just luck". I don't know, it just seems like one of the most lazy and nonsensical arguments out there to have luck as the main reason why they've been to the playoffs 9 times since 2000 and have been to the NLCS the past two years. It would be as stupid and lazy of an argument if I came in here blaming the Reds penchant for coming back late in games, winning a ton of walk off wins since 2010, and a perfectly healthy pitching staff last year all due to luck instead of the Reds being a very good team. I'm willing to lean on the "Reds are a very good team with the skill to accomplish what they have done" argument rather than the mythical luck monster that gets flagrantly thrown around in here on any number of topics. I've always found it pretty ironic that you have some of the most intelligent posters I've ever seen on an internet forum posting logical arguments using advance statistics that quantify how players play, teams win, etc; yet when it comes to the Cardinals and some other topics, they point to something that can't be quantified and is as just as much of a straw man as clutch or team chemistry as a main point as to why there is success.

Cardinals have had an unusual amount of luck the past two seasons, pretty hard to deny that, pretty easy to quantify.

1. Snuck into the playoffs in 2011 on the last day of the season when the Braves had an epic collapse, including blowing a lead in the ninth inning of the final game of the season.

2. Snuck past the Phillies in the first round, mostly because then Phillies cleanup hitter was playing hurt.

3. Won the World Series because the Rangers RF dropped a ball for the final out of game six, which would have given them the World Series title.

4. Snuck into the playoffs in 2012, only because MLB changed the rule, allowing an extra playoff team to make the playoffs.

5. Won the one game playoff due to a blown call by the umpire.

Clearly the Cardinals also did some good things themselves during all that, and it wasn't all luck, but it's also clear that they experienced an unusual amount of luck.

I think it's easy to understand how a non Cardinal fan, would then start to see luck everywhere whenever the Cardinals succeed. It's not rational, but understandable. I don't think the Cardinals have been that lucky this year so far, they've just played well. But it sure seems like luck, based on past experience.

[mdccclxix]

Cardinals are a good team, yay, clap clap clap. I really don't care to read about it on a Reds board.

[RedlegJake]

Cardinals have had an unusual amount of luck the past two seasons, pretty hard to deny that, pretty easy to quantify.

1. Snuck into the playoffs in 2011 on the last day of the season when the Braves had an epic collapse, including blowing a lead in the ninth inning of the final game of the season.

2. Snuck past the Phillies in the first round, mostly because then Phillies cleanup hitter was playing hurt.

3. Won the World Series because the Rangers RF dropped a ball for the final out of game six, which would have given them the World Series title.

4. Snuck into the playoffs in 2012, only because MLB changed the rule, allowing an extra playoff team to make the playoffs.

5. Won the one game playoff due to a blown call by the umpire.

Clearly the Cardinals also did some good things themselves during all that, and it wasn't all luck, but it's also clear that they experienced an unusual amount of luck.

I think it's easy to understand how a non Cardinal fan, would then start to see luck everywhere whenever the Cardinals succeed. It's not rational, but understandable. I don't think the Cardinals have been that lucky this year so far, they've just played well. But it sure seems like luck, based on past experience.

When luck keeps repeating itself I begin to think...hmmmm...mebbe tain't luck atal....

[RedlegJake]

Almost every Cards fan on this board, 'specially those who make it to ORG, are respectful that this is a Reds board and bring intelligent discussion. Mike is the cream of that crop. If you don't want to read it don't click on the thread! Some of us do enjoy baseball in general not just the Reds and enjoy the insights from the "enemy" camp. The Cards may be the bad guys but Mike Thierry and Magdal et al are positive contributors to this board.

[Todd Gack]

When luck keeps repeating itself I begin to think...hmmmm...mebbe tain't luck atal....

Well, the 2006 team won 83 games in an extremely weak division and somehow won it all. A mediocre team by many standards.

2011 was a legit good team though.

They've just taken advantage of some very good opportunities.

[jhiller21]

I have to say Mike is one of the better posters on the board. He always looks at things objectively, and provides good insight without bias. As much as I don't like the Cards, I really enjoy Mike's posts.

I think we should welcome fans from all other teams, as long as they provide interesting discussion. This is the best baseball forum on the internet, and all fans should be able to enjoy it.

[MattyHo4Life]

Well, the 2006 team won 83 games in an extremely weak division and somehow won it all. A mediocre team by many standards.

2011 was a legit good team though.

They've just taken advantage of some very good opportunities.

The 2005 team wasn't quite as lucky. The Cardinals had a better team in 2005 than they did in 2006. The 2005 team won 105 games, the most in MLB that year. I guess their luck that year was bad luck because they were swept by the Red Sox in the World Series.

[MattyHo4Life]

Fearless prediction:

We won't see too many Card fans on this board until the Cards win again.

I for one try not to post on this board much when the Cardinals are winning, and especially when the Reds are playing the Cardinals. The reason is because I love my team just as much as you guys love yours. I know how it feels when your team isn't doing well and a rival that you hate is doing well. I've been on this board and baseball forums in general to know how many posters brag about their teams on other teams message boards. Even when they don't intend to be doing that, it can sometimes be taken that way just because of how much we support our teams. So sometimes it's easier just not to post at certain times to avoid a harmless thread turning into a train wreck because of emotions.

Anyways, the reason I come to this board year after year is because this is where some of the best baseball discussions that I've ever seen occur. The weird thing is that there are Cardinals boards that seem more "anti Cardinals" than this Reds forum. :lol:

[Todd Gack]

The 2005 team wasn't quite as lucky. The Cardinals had a better team in 2005 than they did in 2006. The 2005 team won 100 games, the most in MLB that year. I guess their luck that year was bad luck because they were swept by the Red Sox in the World Series.

Who's talking about 2005?

[MattyHo4Life]

Who's talking about 2005?

I am...did you read my post? I was comparing the "good luck" in 2006 to the "bad luck" in 2006.

[Rijo's Ghost]

The Cardinals weren't in the WS in 2005.

[MattyHo4Life]

The Cardinals weren't in the WS in 2005.

Opps...I meant 2004. you are right Rijo. :)

[Redsfansince72]

the one reason i hate the Cards is i am a jealous fan. I love the Reds, and I cant stand when the Cards owners always go out and get the pieces to try and put them over the top year after year at the deadline and all these years before 2010 how the small market crap was always thrown in Reds fans faces as the excuse they couldnt do anything. And this was from a previous owner that was a billionaire!! The cards are bred to win. it starts in spring training and it doesn't end till they get far in the post season. Not being happy you won a division but the prize of a World Series Trophy. they have 2 and the Reds have zero since 1990. the Reds havent won a playoff series since 1995! I was at that game.. anyway as a Reds fan i want what Card fans get.. World Series games.. Not just being happy with winning a division.

[757690]

I for one try not to post on this board much when the Cardinals are winning, and especially when the Reds are playing the Cardinals. The reason is because I love my team just as much as you guys love yours. I know how it feels when your team isn't doing well and a rival that you hate is doing well. I've been on this board and baseball forums in general to know how many posters brag about their teams on other teams message boards. Even when they don't intend to be doing that, it can sometimes be taken that way just because of how much we support our teams. So sometimes it's easier just not to post at certain times to avoid a harmless thread turning into a train wreck because of emotions.

Anyways, the reason I come to this board year after year is because this is where some of the best baseball discussions that I've ever seen occur. The weird thing is that there are Cardinals boards that seem more "anti Cardinals" than this Reds forum. :lol:

Glad to have you back :thumbup:

[westofyou]

Cardinals are a good team, yay, clap clap clap. I really don't care to read about it on a Reds board.

He shoots

He scores

[Plus Plus]

http://www.insidestl.com/insideSTLcom/STLSports/STLCardinals/tabid/91/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/10438/Fernando-Tatis-Is-Good-at-MS-Paint.aspx

Its more of a Charlie Sheen "#winning" than a real winning, but I'm dying laughing.

Fernando Tatis, modern day Picasso.

[Tom Servo]

http://www.insidestl.com/insideSTLcom/STLSports/STLCardinals/tabid/91/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/10438/Fernando-Tatis-Is-Good-at-MS-Paint.aspx

Its more of a Charlie Sheen "#winning" than a real winning, but I'm dying laughing.

Fernando Tatis, modern day Picasso.
This made not only my day, but basically my whole life.

[Todd Gack]

I am...did you read my post? I was comparing the "good luck" in 2006 to the "bad luck" in 2006.

But they didn't have bad luck in 2004. They just faced a pretty darn good Red Sox team and lost. The 2004 was better than 2006. Maybe losing the 2004 World Series to a pretty good team makes up for the mediocre 2006 team winning the World Series. I don't know, but an 83 win team is embarrassing for a World Series winner. But hey, you guys won the WS so what's the difference?

[MattyHo4Life]

http://www.insidestl.com/insideSTLcom/STLSports/STLCardinals/tabid/91/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/10438/Fernando-Tatis-Is-Good-at-MS-Paint.aspx

Its more of a Charlie Sheen "#winning" than a real winning, but I'm dying laughing.

Fernando Tatis, modern day Picasso.

:lol: @ Fernando's Pizza Parlor

[50YrRedsFan]

And by the way, Cardinals have the best record in baseball before Thursday's games.

[Raisor]

And by the way, Cardinals have the best record in baseball before Thursday's games.

And the reds are only a couple games behind! Woo!

[traderumor]

And the reds are only a couple games behind! Woo!
All the hand wringing, the Reds stink, the Cards are, like, the most awesomest ever, yet in the last 10, Cards 7-3, Reds 6-4, one game difference.

[Tom Servo]

In bigger news, Jay Bruce is a fan of Picasso Tatis.

https://twitter.com/JayABruce/status/332682286682234880

[RollyInRaleigh]

I think the thread would have been better if it would've read, "Cardinals just keep on whining." ;)

[leeech86]

I think the thread would have been better if it would've read, "Cardinals just keep on whining." ;)

Thats what I thought it said at first until I clicked on the thread and read it again.

[Plus Plus]

In bigger news, Jay Bruce is a fan of Picasso Tatis.

https://twitter.com/JayABruce/status/332682286682234880

The new zoo picture is amazing.

He's also corrected several people who called one of the animals a goat, when it is, in fact, a mountain goat.

[fearofpopvol1]

So I just had a look through the Cardinals numbers this year and I'm not sure if it's been mentioned on RZ anywhere, but want to take a guess how many series' the Cardinals have lost this season? TWO. And 1 of them came the first series of their season against the D-Backs. The only other series they lost was against the Pirates and that was in late April. They didn't lose a series in the month of May and you can basically say now that they have lost 1 series in the last 2 months. Is that some kind of record? At least in recent times? Now, you could point out that they haven't played the toughest part of their schedule, but it's still ridiculous.

It's pretty remarkable that the Reds are somehow still in the race.

[jhiller21]

I have a feeling it's going down to the wire. The Cards are better than we thought they were, and with the loss of Lohse and Carp, have replaced them with equal or better talent.

I still think we take the division, but it won't be by 9 games.

[GAC]

My brother, as well as a couple co-workers, are already wringing their hands at the early season success of the Cards....

"Every time we win they win!" .... "OK, there ain't too much we can do about that now is there?"

And no matter how much you attempt to reason with them, and with 4 MONTHS OF BASEBALL LEFT, they've already conceded the division to the Cards.

We all know that the season is a marathon, not a sprint. And IMO, endurance is a key factor, in reference to the second half of a season, that tests the true mettle of a team. And right now, they've been having to shuffle the cards (pun intended), due to the rash of injuries that have befallen their pitching staff and, so far, have been able to keep the magic going.

Westbrook's replacement (Gast) just went on the DL, and they called up their #1 draft pick from last year (Wacha) to replace him. Now Wacha and Miller are talented young kids. But this is rookie Miller's first full season, and I think we'll see him start to come back to earth as the season progresses. Ask Lynn. He had a blistering first half last season, then turned average the second half.

As for Wacha, the concern is ....


Limit the Stress on Michael Wacha's Arm

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/four-ways-st-louis-cardinals-rescue-pitching-staff-160800640.html

In defending the decision to keep his premium pitching prospect in Triple-A, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak has repeatedly referenced Wacha's major-league service-time clock as well as his need to recondition to the rigors of a professional season pitching every fifth day (instead of the every seventh day schedule he recently followed at Texas A&M). Both reasons are legitimate, but both may soon become irrelevant if the St. Louis club can't stem the tide of starting pitching injuries.

Still, the concerns about Wacha's arm endurance should not be dismissed. The last full season Wacha threw as a starting pitcher in college totaled somewhere in the area of 130 innings. Last season, he threw just over 20 innings as he worked his way through multiple levels of the Cardinals' minor-league system. That's just over 150 innings pitched at multiple levels with a split season and various throwing schedules. Any way you look at it, Wacha's arm is not ready to throw a full innings load for a major-league team.

It's a long season. And endurance, as well as ML inexperience, can be a factor on some of these young arms as the IP start to mount up. And if their starting rotation starts putting a bigger strain/pressure on this Card's BP, which is average at best, then it could get very interesting.

[mth123]

It's a long season. And endurance, as well as ML inexperience, can be a factor on some of these young arms as the IP start to mount up. And if their starting rotation starts putting a bigger strain/pressure on this Card's BP, which is average at best, then it could get very interesting.

This is the point IMO. That staff full of kids is doing really well and the kids are talented. There will be a point where the league catches up to all these new guys and not all of them will be able to adjust and maintain such an effective performance. These Cards will come back to Earth IMO. The Reds just need to get healthy and keep winning. If the Reds can maintain a .625 winning % (101 Wins), I'll take my chances. If the Cards win more than that, I'll tip my hat and root for the Reds in the Wild Card game.

[traderumor]

It's starting to smell like 1974 to me. At least this time there is a consolation prize for the best two teams in the league residing in the same division.

BTW, the Cards are clearly playing over their heads, I don't care how "talented" the young pitchers are. It will be fun to watch the correction.

[Tony Cloninger]

They remind me of the Dodgers of 1973. All young, for the most part.....and all coming in at the same time. Just like 1973 I am hoping the Reds can overtake them and outlast them...but it was not like the Dodgers blew it that year. They won 96 games and like TR said.... 1974 happened.

IF the Reds get the WC..... and they have the best record of the 2 WC teams... They do get Home Field correct? This is not some coin toss BS right?

Either way...if they win, they then have to go play the Cardinals because they would probably have the best record in the NL? Or is it the worst record plays the best record..... regardless if the worst record won their division or not?

[RedsfaninMT]

I was curious, so I checked the standings on this date last year. Best record in baseball, at 33-20, belonged to...






Dodgers.

No, that record is nowhere near to the Cards this year, but the Dodgers were the only team playing above .600 ball in all of MLB. There is still a lot of baseball to play.

May the Cards have the same successes the Dodgers had last year from here on out.

[MikeThierry]

I was curious, so I checked the standings on this date last year. Best record in baseball, at 33-20, belonged to...






Dodgers.

No, that record is nowhere near to the Cards this year, but the Dodgers were the only team playing above .600 ball in all of MLB. There is still a lot of baseball to play.

May the Cards have the same successes the Dodgers had last year from here on out.

The Cards are actually off to the best start they've had since WWII. They are starting to remind me of the 2004 and 2005 teams where they would consistently win series and not go into long prolonged slumps. I don't know if they can continue to play this good. That said, even if they go .500 the rest of the way, they would still win 90 wins.

[krm1580]

The Cards are actually off to the best start they've had since WWII. They are starting to remind me of the 2004 and 2005 teams where they would consistently win series and not go into long prolonged slumps. I don't know if they can continue to play this good. That said, even if they go .500 the rest of the way, they would still win 90 wins.

Prior to todays game the Cardinals were hitting .342 with runners in scoring position. No other team in baseball is higher than .289.

Joey Votto was hitting .353 with runners in scoring position, second best on the Reds, but would be 7th best on the Cardinals among their regulars.

Beltran .475
Craig .431
Descalso .400
Molina .396
Kozma .375
Holiday .362

They might keep it up all season, but statistically they are so far off the charts right now it seems hard to believe that will keep it up. I think their pitching will continue to be strong. The biggest difference between them and the Reds seems to be they do a much better job of keep the ball from flying out of the yard because if you look, the rest of the stats are nearly identical.

[traderumor]

I bet the Cards board has a "Reds just keep on winning" thread. This week ended up them 5-2, Reds 4-3, and dang near matched their record but for another Sunday bullpen failure.

[RBA]

I bet the Cards board has a "Reds just keep on winning" thread. This week ended up them 5-2, Reds 4-3, and dang near matched their record but for another Sunday bullpen failure.

The cards have a board? I would have never guessed since they are all over here. Redszone needs to call pest control.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

[NCCardfan]

I bet the Cards board has a "Reds just keep on winning" thread. This week ended up them 5-2, Reds 4-3, and dang near matched their record but for another Sunday bullpen failure.

I see comments like that but all I do is thank God that ESPN can't talk about how weak the NL Central is this year. 3 NL Central teams are off to GREAT starts, I personally am tickled that all 3 teams are doing so well.

As it sits right now, the Reds & Pirates would be leading 4 out of 6 divisions in the MLB and especially the Reds are doing all the right things - PIT may be playing a bit over their head but the Bucs are a playoff caliber team this year.

I don't tell people how to root but I for one am just going to enjoy the fact that 3 out of the top 4 best records in baseball at the 1/3 mark are in the NL Central. Good times.

[MikeThierry]

Prior to todays game the Cardinals were hitting .342 with runners in scoring position. No other team in baseball is higher than .289.

Joey Votto was hitting .353 with runners in scoring position, second best on the Reds, but would be 7th best on the Cardinals among their regulars.

Beltran .475
Craig .431
Descalso .400
Molina .396
Kozma .375
Holiday .362

They might keep it up all season, but statistically they are so far off the charts right now it seems hard to believe that will keep it up. I think their pitching will continue to be strong. The biggest difference between them and the Reds seems to be they do a much better job of keep the ball from flying out of the yard because if you look, the rest of the stats are nearly identical.

I know that they can't keep up the .342 pace but the Cards do have a lot of hitters in their lineup that have really good career numbers with RISP. Craig, for example, lead all of baseball last year in BA with RISP. He's hitting in insane .520 with 2 outs and RISP so that is set to crash significantly but I'm willing to bet he hovers around .400 with RISP for most of the year. Molina, Beltran, and Holliday are all good in their career with RISP.

Only Kozma and Descalso I see regressing hard. Kozma because of what has already been highlighted on this forum multiple times and Descalso because he isn't an every day player.

[traderumor]

I know that they can't keep up the .342 pace but the Cards do have a lot of hitters in their lineup that have really good career numbers with RISP. Craig, for example, lead all of baseball last year in BA with RISP. He's hitting in insane .520 with 2 outs and RISP so that is set to crash significantly but I'm willing to bet he hovers around .400 with RISP for most of the year. Molina, Beltran, and Holliday are all good in their career with RISP.

Only Kozma and Descalso I see regressing hard. Kozma because of what has already been highlighted on this forum multiple times and Descalso because he isn't an every day player.I don't think this is a skill. Better hope normalizing doesn't happen all at once.

[westofyou]

1999 Indians scored 1009 runs - with this line with RISP .306/.391/.520 with a .316 BABIP

Cardinals now at: .344 /.418/.459 with a BABIP of .404

So The Cardinals are hitting like 1941 Ted Williams on balls in play.

Yeah, that won't continue

[Vottomatic]

Cards pounding the D'backs tonight. 12-4 as we speak.

[MikeThierry]

I don't think this is a skill. Better hope normalizing doesn't happen all at once.

I know it's not a skill but isn't equally as faulty to ignore a player's career in RISP situations?

[TSJ55]

I know it's not a skill but isn't equally as faulty to ignore a player's career in RISP situations?

I'm certainly of the mind that "clutch" is a real thing in sports (hell, in life for that matter) and hitting w/ RISP falls into that category. Some guys focus when the heat is on, other guys fold.

[MrRedLegger]

As of today Reds are 21-9 at home. Cards are 20-9 on the road. Something's gotta give. Going for the SWEEP!!!

[RedsManRick]

I know it's not a skill but isn't equally as faulty to ignore a player's career in RISP situations?

It depends on what you're trying to do. If you want to celebrate a guy's past successes, by all means talk about his career performance with RISP. That stuff happened. But if you're trying to predict what's likely to happen in the future, we have an absolutely enormous amount of evidence that tells us clutch is some combination of:

1. Not real
2. A rather small effect
3. One that results in sustaining performance, not increasing it
4. Quite rare, such only a small percentage of guys with a track-record of being clutch actually possess the skill -- the rest have gotten "lucky"

I'm of the belief that it's a combination of 2, 3, and 4. But suffice it to say that regardless of a guy's track record in clutch situations, if you want to be right, you're much better off assuming that, in future clutch situations, his performance will look like his overall past performance record more than it will his past clutch performance record.

As it relates to the Cards, we have no reason to believe they, as a team, will continue to have a .400 BABIP with RISP.

[redsrule2500]

As it relates to the Cards, we have no reason to believe they, as a team, will continue to have a .400 BABIP with RISP.

Exactly. The Cardinals have been extremely lucky thus far.

Their bases loaded BABIP is a ridiculous .425, which accounts for nearly 52 of their 295 runs this season. That's huge.

[CardsFanBob]

I'd also suggest that some of our guys aren't hitting in non RISP positions yet... and that will likely change as well. And when it does, that will generate runs too. It's not like Matt Holliday is going to hit .250 all year. And David Freese is warming up nicely after hitting around .200 for the first five or six weeks of the season.

[757690]

One thing that makes tonight's loss easier to handle: knowing that the Reds humiliated the Cards in the first game they played this year, and the Cards went on to win the series.

[redhat]

Exactly. The Cardinals have been extremely lucky thus far.

Their bases loaded BABIP is a ridiculous .425, which accounts for nearly 52 of their 295 runs this season. That's huge.BABIP is a stat that may be meaningful over a large sample size. When you start breaking it down into slices based on a small sample size, it's meaningless.

You don't get to 40-21 on luck.

[Vottomatic]

I'm a huge Reds fan and I despise the Cardinals.

Having said that..........one team looks good enough to only make the postseason and the other looks like they're going to win it all without breaking a sweat. The Cards are built to win it all. The Reds don't look like that to me.

Disappointing.

There is a huge gap in hitting between both teams. Cards seem far superior at having quality at-bats than the Reds hitters.

Gloom and doom, I know. Sorry. I still believe the Reds will make the postseason. Let's just say I'm really impressed with the Cardinals. And I'm surprised at how good they are.

[RollyInRaleigh]

The Cardinals look like the better team right now. The good news is, it's a long season.

[757690]

I'm a huge Reds fan and I despise the Cardinals.

Having said that..........one team looks good enough to only make the postseason and the other looks like they're going to win it all without breaking a sweat. The Cards are built to win it all. The Reds don't look like that to me.

Disappointing.

There is a huge gap in hitting between both teams. Cards seem far superior at having quality at-bats than the Reds hitters.

Gloom and doom, I know. Sorry. I still believe the Reds will make the postseason. Let's just say I'm really impressed with the Cardinals. And I'm surprised at how good they are.


The Cardinals look like the better team right now. The good news is, it's a long season.

Just a few days ago, the Cardinals looked terrible, worse than the Reds looked last night. Not only is it a long season, last night was just one game.

[Roy Tucker]

One thing that has become apparent over the first 1/3 of the season is that the Cards are playing better ball. I'm just hoping the Reds can weather this current stretch and the Cards cool down and the Reds can stay close.

The Cards currently look like the reincarnation of the BRM. Don't get me wrong, I think they are a good team, but they aren't that good. They're playing ridiculously well now. Rookie pitchers looking like Cy Young and .400+ RISP won't last. They'll come back to earth. The problem is, that might not be till August and they have a 10 game lead. The Reds need to keep it at 5 games or less.

And the Reds aren't deep enough to withstand the loss of Ludwick, Cueto, and Marshall and not have affect them. Walt's job over the next 7 weeks is going to be very difficult. How badly do the Reds want to win this year and what chips are they willing to give up to fill gaps?

[757690]

BABIP is a stat that may be meaningful over a large sample size. When you start breaking it down into slices based on a small sample size, it's meaningless.

You don't get to 40-21 on luck.

It's not that BABIP is meaningless in a small sample size, actually it's the exact opposite. By looking at small sample sizes of a team's or player's BABIP, we can make extremely accurate predictions about how that team or player will perform over a full season.

Because we know that a team's BABIP with RISP always averages out over the course of a season to whatever that teams's overall BABIP is, if a team has a BABIP with RISP that is significantly lower or higher than it's overall BABIP over a small part of the season, than we know that the team's BIBIP with RISP will regress to its overall BABIP by season's end.

It's not a matter of luck vs. skill. It's a matter of sustainablity.

In other words, either the Cardinals will do something that no other team has ever done in the history of MLB, or their BIBIP with RISP will regress to its overall BABIP by season's end.

[mth123]

The Cards are very talented and very deep. They are hitting on all cylinders right now, but, as noted, it's a long season. All those hot bats may slump together just as they've gotten hot together (see current Slumps of Choo and Votto and the Reds losing 4 of 5 as a case in point). Even more important is all those young pitchers. These guys are all looking good, but will they hit the wall as innings mount? Will the league figure them out and adjust? Will they be able to adjust back? It just doesn't seem likely they'll continue to win at this pace.

The Cardinals will surely hit a rough patch or two. They have a lot of talent and may win anyway, but the Reds are talented too and very capable of turning the tables when that rough patch comes.

It's going to be a fun race.

[westofyou]

The Cardinals look like the better team right now. The good news is, it's a long season.

Yep, 63% of the season left.

The course is long and tough.

[jojo]

Exactly. The Cardinals have been extremely lucky thus far.

Their bases loaded BABIP is a ridiculous .425, which accounts for nearly 52 of their 295 runs this season. That's huge.

Actual record: 40-21. Pythag record: 40-21.

Luck may be a lady and she looks to be behaving very prim and proper.

[Kc61]

Here's my take on the Cards. All of this is just a view, no detailed backup.

Cards had to come up with a philosophy to win in today's salary structure. They weren't necessarily keeping Pujols, they wanted something more sustainable.

They followed a philosophy that some writers have pointed to recently. Hitters who make contact.

Forget huge home run stars and all that. Forget Moneyball, they didn't buy into the idea of walks and "getting on base" as the key.

They decided to stress contact hitters and contact hitting. The long balls and some walks will come but the main thing is to put the ball in play.

We saw this with Craig's brilliant at bat last night that changed the game. Guy fouled off many pitches and got a big hit. Not a blast. A key hit. By staying alive and making contact.

The beauty of this philosophy is that it helps with top end pitching. You can't walk your way to victory against the best pitchers. You can't homer your way to victory. But you can win your share if you just make some contact.

The BABIP numbers will change over time. But whatever the BABIP number is, the number of balls in play will be high. The Cards keep testing the opponents' pitcher and defense by hitting the baseball.

This has actually shown up in the Cards numbers, as I recall, the last few seasons, even when Pujols was around. It's obviously worked brlliantly so far this year.

What's harder for me to understand is how they keep coming up with good replacement starting pitchers even after all the injuries they suffer. Perhaps it's as simple as emphasizing the drafting and development of starters. Cards do not seem to emphasize bullpens, adhering the the philosophy that you can cobble together a good bullpen, but not a good rotation.

I'm a Reds fan, not a Cards fan, but when you think through all the Cards have achieved in recent years it's a credit to their organization. They are, perhaps, in a more lucrative market but that's not a guarantee of success.

Ok, now time for the Reds to beat the Cards a few times.

[redhat]

It's not that BABIP is meaningless in a small sample size, actually it's the exact opposite. By looking at small sample sizes of a team's or player's BABIP, we can make extremely accurate predictions about how that team or player will perform over a full season.I'm guessing math isn't your strong suit. You wouldn't make a statement like this if you'd ever taken a course in statistics.

BABIP, like any other baseball average, becomes more predictive as the sample size increases, and less predictive as the sample size decreases.

For instance, the Cardinals overall BABIP is .321, based on almost 2100 at bats. That's a number with small error bars. It's comparable to looking at a single player's numbers over four full seasons.

Their BABIP with the bases loaded is .414. But that's based on only 53 at bats. It tells you virtually nothing. Just like an individual player's batting average after 12-13 games tells you very little about how he'll perform over an entire season.

For instance, if the Cards ground out the next three times they have the bases loaded, that BABIP drops to .386. If they get hits the next three times, it jumps to .455. It's highly variable, just like a player's batting average early in the season. Large error bars, less predictive utility.

The Cards BABIP with RISP has more grounding, at .408, it's based on 526 at bats.

Now you say that this number must regress to the overall BABIP over the course of a season. That's the typical assumption made by a person who just looks at stats instead of watching the game. It's wrong, and here's why: Pitchers are not as effective from the stretch as they are from the windup. This is especially true for starting pitchers, who pitch most of the innings.

All offensive statistics usually go up when men are on base. So while .408 may be somewhat higher than they end up, I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish the season with a BABIP with RISP of .370 or so. What it will be with the bases loaded, I have no idea. There will likely be less than 150 at bats for the team in that situation.

[RedEye]

Forget Moneyball, they didn't buy into the idea of walks and "getting on base" as the key.


Two quick points:

1) Moneyball is not just about getting on base. It's about exploiting market inefficiencies to your advantage.

2) The Cards are tops in the NL and third overall in OBP (.337), behind only the Red Sox (.350) and the Tigers (.349). So I'm not convinced they've thrown getting on base out the window.

[redhat]

What's harder for me to understand is how they keep coming up with good replacement starting pitchers even after all the injuries they suffer.A few years ago, the Cards' minor league system was in shambles. Mainly because Tony La Russa didn't trust young players, instead trading them for veterans.

This is why, for instance, Dan Haren was traded for Mark Mulder.

A younger Jeff Luhnow (now the Astros GM) was given more responsibility for the draft than Walt Jocketty, and he hired a team of sabrematricians to evaluate players in concert with the existing scouts. These guys were able to produce a better drafting model, especially getting good players in the later rounds than they had before.

Luhnow is gone, but he left his draft philosophy behind.

In addition, the Cards have expanded their international operations. They opened a baseball academy in the Dominican Republic, and they increased their presence in South America and Mexico.

Finally, they've gotten a lot of extra early draft choices as compensation for letting free agents walk. Michael Wacha was a compensation pick for losing Pujols. They got compensation picks for Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson. They brought Troy Percival out of retirement in 2007 and got a compensation pick for him as well.

Draft early, draft smart, and gobble up as many international stars as you can. That's how you build a minor league system with depth. And the personnel running the minor league teams are top notch. Before Matheny was hired as manager, he was a roving instructor in the system.

[Beltway]

Because we know that a team's BABIP with RISP always averages out over the course of a season to whatever that teams's overall BABIP is, if a team has a BABIP with RISP that is significantly lower or higher than it's overall BABIP over a small part of the season, than we know that the team's BIBIP with RISP will regress to its overall BABIP by season's end.
This is simply not true and it's a form of the Gambler's fallacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Most people don't really understand probability (it often runs contrary to human common sense). Many people believe that if you flip a coin 1000 times, you're going to get heads ~50% of the time, but it's possible to get heads 80% of the time (or any other percentage). It's not very likely, but it's still possible. And even though you got heads on 800 out of 1000 coin flips, that has absolutely no impact on future coin flips.

[Vottomatic]

I did this on the fly, so feel free to check it.

Cards have outright won 12 series against opponents, they've lost 2 series, and split 4 or them. 22-7 against sub-.500 teams. 18-14 against above-.500 teams.

Reds have won 11 series, lost 6, and split 1. 24-8 against sub-.500 teams. 12-17 against above .500 teams.

Cards are beating everyone. Bad teams. Good teams. Doesn't matter.

Reds are beating up on the bad teams and struggling against the good teams.

[757690]

Actual record: 40-21. Pythag record: 40-21.

Luck may be a lady and she looks to be behaving very prim and proper.

Even Dave Cameron has said that we should stop looking at mid season Pythag as anything meaningful.

And a team not matching it's Pythag has nothing to do with luck or BABIP. You need to study both a team's Pythag and their BABIP to start to understand where they are likely headed, record wise.

Pythag mearly tells us how many runs a team has scored and how many they have given up. Nothing more.

BABIP tells us whether to expect a teams run production and/or run prevention to continue at the same pace.

So a team could match it's Pythag record, but still be destined for a huge correction according to their BABIP.

[757690]

This is simply not true and it's a form of the Gambler's fallacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Most people don't really understand probability (it often runs contrary to human common sense). Many people believe that if you flip a coin 1000 times, you're going to get heads ~50% of the time, but it's possible to get heads 80% of the time (or any other percentage). It's not very likely, but it's still possible. And even though you got heads on 800 out of 1000 coin flips, that has absolutely no impact on future coin flips.

BABIP is not the same as a coin flip. It's a different type of statistic. It is far more complex that a simple probability.

[Beltway]

BABIP is not the same as a coin flip. It's a different type of statistic. It is far more complex that a simple probability.
It might seem more complex in your mind, but it's fundamentally the same. The probability of each particular event varies, but this does not make it a "different type of statistic". It is subject to the same rules as a coin flip and the Gambler's fallacy is still a fallacy.

[757690]

I'm guessing math isn't your strong suit. You wouldn't make a statement like this if you'd ever taken a course in statistics.

BABIP, like any other baseball average, becomes more predictive as the sample size increases, and less predictive as the sample size decreases.

For instance, the Cardinals overall BABIP is .321, based on almost 2100 at bats. That's a number with small error bars. It's comparable to looking at a single player's numbers over four full seasons.

Their BABIP with the bases loaded is .414. But that's based on only 53 at bats. It tells you virtually nothing. Just like an individual player's batting average after 12-13 games tells you very little about how he'll perform over an entire season.

For instance, if the Cards ground out the next three times they have the bases loaded, that BABIP drops to .386. If they get hits the next three times, it jumps to .455. It's highly variable, just like a player's batting average early in the season. Large error bars, less predictive utility.

The Cards BABIP with RISP has more grounding, at .408, it's based on 526 at bats.

Now you say that this number must regress to the overall BABIP over the course of a season. That's the typical assumption made by a person who just looks at stats instead of watching the game. It's wrong, and here's why: Pitchers are not as effective from the stretch as they are from the windup. This is especially true for starting pitchers, who pitch most of the innings.

All offensive statistics usually go up when men are on base. So while .408 may be somewhat higher than they end up, I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish the season with a BABIP with RISP of .370 or so. What it will be with the bases loaded, I have no idea. There will likely be less than 150 at bats for the team in that situation.

BABIP with RISP is not a predictive stat. We can tell with great accuracy, what a team's BABIP with RISP will be by looking at the team's BABIP overall. The two will be very close at the end of every season.

If what you suggest is true, that pitchers are not as effective from the stretch as they are from the windup, then why don't the stats back that up? Season after season, MLB's pitcher's batting average against with runners on base or runners in scoring position, is almost identical to MLB's pitcher's batting average against overall. It's usually within one or two points.

Also, season after season, individual team's BABIP with RISP is almost identical to that team's BABIP overall.

Therefore, since we have near certainty that a team's BABIP with RISP will end up at the end of the season, to match their BABIP overall, if over any stretch of the season, a team's BABIP with RISP doesn't match their BABIP overall, we can safely assume that the team's BABIP with RISP will regress (or improve) over the course of the season to end up matching it's overall BABIP.

Maybe that won't happen this time with the Cardinals. But if it doesn't, it will likely be the first time in the history of the game.

[757690]

It might seem more complex in your mind, but it's fundamentally the same. The probability of each particular event varies, but this does not make it a "different type of statistic". It is subject to the same rules as a coin flip and the Gambler's fallacy is still a fallacy.

Sorry, I meant BABIP with RISP.

BABIP with RISP is not a predictive stat. I just explained it for a second time in my previous post, so just look at that and it should explain it clearly.

[Wonderful Monds]

I did this on the fly, so feel free to check it.

Cards have outright won 12 series against opponents, they've lost 2 series, and split 4 or them. 22-7 against sub-.500 teams. 18-14 against above-.500 teams.

Reds have won 11 series, lost 6, and split 1. 24-8 against sub-.500 teams. 12-17 against above .500 teams.

Cards are beating everyone. Bad teams. Good teams. Doesn't matter.

Reds are beating up on the bad teams and struggling against the good teams.
By a narrow margin. If they had won just three more of those above .500 games, they'd be 15-14, same number of losses as the Cards.

If anything, these numbers tell us the Reds haven't played so far off from the Cards to this point in the season.

[757690]

Here's my take on the Cards. All of this is just a view, no detailed backup.

Cards had to come up with a philosophy to win in today's salary structure. They weren't necessarily keeping Pujols, they wanted something more sustainable.

They followed a philosophy that some writers have pointed to recently. Hitters who make contact.

Forget huge home run stars and all that. Forget Moneyball, they didn't buy into the idea of walks and "getting on base" as the key.

They decided to stress contact hitters and contact hitting. The long balls and some walks will come but the main thing is to put the ball in play.

We saw this with Craig's brilliant at bat last night that changed the game. Guy fouled off many pitches and got a big hit. Not a blast. A key hit. By staying alive and making contact.

The beauty of this philosophy is that it helps with top end pitching. You can't walk your way to victory against the best pitchers. You can't homer your way to victory. But you can win your share if you just make some contact.

The BABIP numbers will change over time. But whatever the BABIP number is, the number of balls in play will be high. The Cards keep testing the opponents' pitcher and defense by hitting the baseball.

This has actually shown up in the Cards numbers, as I recall, the last few seasons, even when Pujols was around. It's obviously worked brlliantly so far this year.

What's harder for me to understand is how they keep coming up with good replacement starting pitchers even after all the injuries they suffer. Perhaps it's as simple as emphasizing the drafting and development of starters. Cards do not seem to emphasize bullpens, adhering the the philosophy that you can cobble together a good bullpen, but not a good rotation.

I'm a Reds fan, not a Cards fan, but when you think through all the Cards have achieved in recent years it's a credit to their organization. They are, perhaps, in a more lucrative market but that's not a guarantee of success.

Ok, now time for the Reds to beat the Cards a few times.

Two things.

1. Choo had just as brilliant an AB the inning before Craig's, so it's not like act the Reds are all hackers.

2. Before wondering how the Cardinals get good replacement starting pitching, lets first see if it really is all that good. Have they even had 10 starts between them?

I will give the Cards credit in one area, where the have always been strong, going all the way back to the Herzog days. They produce year after year great in house options for their pen and bench. It's a great strength of theirs and one of the biggest reasons why they have had only 5 losing seasons in the last 32 years.

[Salukifan2]

Two things.

1. Choo had just as brilliant an AB the inning before Craig's, so it's not like act the Reds are all hackers.

2. Before wondering how the Cardinals get good replacement starting pitching, lets first see if it really is all that good. Have they even had 10 starts between them?

I will give the Cards credit in one area, where the have always been strong, going all the way back to the Herzog days. They produce year after year great in house options for their pen and bench. It's a great strength of theirs and one of the biggest reasons why they have had only 5 losing seasons in the last 32 years.

Your first point doesn't make sense to me because choo is a leadoff hitter and Craig is a cleanup hitter.

Compare Choo with Carpenter:
Choo: .279/.432/.486 57 k's
Carpenter: .333/.414/.489 30 k's

Comparing the two leadoff men it appears that Choo would be the one considered to be a "hacker" as he is on pace to K almost 140 times while carpenter is on pace to K 80ish times.

Phillips and craig, the two cleanuo hitters, are pretty comparable as far as hacking goes.


Also, the Reds K a ton. The reds will have well over 100 k's from every outfield position this season. Frazier and Votto are also on pace to K well over 100 times.

With Ludwick out, of the 8 reds regulars (including Mez), Choo, Bruce, Frazier, Mez, and nearly votto (19.2 K%) are striking out at a rate greater than 20%. David Freese is the only Cardinal with a K% over 20% and his is 20.4.

Brandon Phillips is the only Reds starter wih a K% under 15. Matt Holliday, Matt Carpenter, and Yadier Molina (craig is at 15.3%) all having k% under 15.

Compared to the Cardinals, the reds are "hackers"

Your second point, however, is spot on.

[757690]

Your first point doesn't make sense to me because choo is a leadoff hitter and Craig is a cleanup hitter.

Compare Choo with Carpenter:
Choo: .279/.432/.486 57 k's
Carpenter: .333/.414/.489 30 k's

Comparing the two leadoff men it appears that Choo would be the one considered to be a "hacker" as he is on pace to K almost 140 times while carpenter is on pace to K 80ish times.

Phillips and craig, the two cleanuo hitters, are pretty comparable as far as hacking goes.


Also, the Reds K a ton. The reds will have well over 100 k's from every outfield position this season. Frazier and Votto are also on pace to K well over 100 times.

With Ludwick out, of the 8 reds regulars (including Mez), Choo, Bruce, Frazier, Mez, and nearly votto (19.2 K%) are striking out at a rate greater than 20%. David Freese is the only Cardinal with a K% over 20% and his is 20.4.

Brandon Phillips is the only Reds starter wih a K% under 15. Matt Holliday, Matt Carpenter, and Yadier Molina (craig is at 15.3%) all having k% under 15.

Compared to the Cardinals, the reds are "hackers"

Your second point, however, is spot on.

Good points. I just wanted to point out that the Reds aren't "all" hackers.

[Magdal]

Lots of theories on hitting and pitching, but it's worth noting that there is a good deal of distance in defensive stats this year. The Cards lead the NL in most categories, most important DP's and fewest errors. Believe it or not, the Reds are near the bottom in most categories.

[RedEye]

Lots of theories on hitting and pitching, but it's worth noting that there is a good deal of distance in defensive stats this year. The Cards lead the NL in most categories, most important DP's and fewest errors. Believe it or not, the Reds are near the bottom in most categories.

How does one rate "important" DP's? And since when are errors the measure of good D?

[757690]

Lots of theories on hitting and pitching, but it's worth noting that there is a good deal of distance in defensive stats this year. The Cards lead the NL in most categories, most important DP's and fewest errors. Believe it or not, the Reds are near the bottom in most categories.

According to UZR, Reds are ranked 8th in the majors on defense and the Cardinals are ranked 25th. Dewan fielding bible has them similarly ranked.

[Magdal]

How does one rate "important" DP's? And since when are errors the measure of good D?So you are saying they mean nothing? Does fielding% mean nothing too?

[RedEye]

So you are saying they mean nothing? Does fielding% mean nothing too?

I didn't say they mean nothing, but I think the consensus now is that errors are to defense as wins are to pitching. They don't tell you anything about context.

[Tony Cloninger]

I'm guessing math isn't your strong suit. You wouldn't make a statement like this if you'd ever taken a course in statistics.

BABIP, like any other baseball average, becomes more predictive as the sample size increases, and less predictive as the sample size decreases.

For instance, the Cardinals overall BABIP is .321, based on almost 2100 at bats. That's a number with small error bars. It's comparable to looking at a single player's numbers over four full seasons.

Their BABIP with the bases loaded is .414. But that's based on only 53 at bats. It tells you virtually nothing. Just like an individual player's batting average after 12-13 games tells you very little about how he'll perform over an entire season.

For instance, if the Cards ground out the next three times they have the bases loaded, that BABIP drops to .386. If they get hits the next three times, it jumps to .455. It's highly variable, just like a player's batting average early in the season. Large error bars, less predictive utility.

The Cards BABIP with RISP has more grounding, at .408, it's based on 526 at bats.

Now you say that this number must regress to the overall BABIP over the course of a season. That's the typical assumption made by a person who just looks at stats instead of watching the game. It's wrong, and here's why: Pitchers are not as effective from the stretch as they are from the windup. This is especially true for starting pitchers, who pitch most of the innings.

All offensive statistics usually go up when men are on base. So while .408 may be somewhat higher than they end up, I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish the season with a BABIP with RISP of .370 or so. What it will be with the bases loaded, I have no idea. There will likely be less than 150 at bats for the team in that situation.


I am guessing being condescending is one of your strongest suits? with an opening line like that?

So basically.....the Cardinals will continue to sustain one of the greatest runs of hitting with RISP just because Pitchers are not as effective from the stretch as they are from the windup. Especially starting pitchers? Since most if not all relievers.... pitch from the stretch...it stands to reason that they will continue to hit this record setting great... while the rest of the hitters on other teams shake their heads and try to figure out how to hit pitchers throwing from the stretch. Is this something special that only the Cardinals know about? Some hidden magic in the cardinal Way book?

:laugh: :lol:

[Roy Tucker]

The Reds' bullpen has blown 5 8th inning leads.

They blew a total of 7 all last year.

[757690]

After what seemed like a horrible week by the Reds, full of missed opportunities and blown leads, and blowouts, the Reds are only four games out.

The reason? The Cards are showing serious cracks in their talent. The replacement pitchers that did so well at first, are getting hit, hard. And while the back of their bullpen has been solid, the rest of it looks worse than the Reds. Even Lynn is starting to get hit harder, just like last year. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and we are starting to see that cost them runs and wins.

It was a bad week, but I'm actually more optimistic about the Reds chances of winning the Central than I was a week ago.

[Salukifan2]

After what seemed like a horrible week by the Reds, full of missed opportunities and blown leads, and blowouts, the Reds are only four games out.

The reason? The Cards are showing serious cracks in their talent. The replacement pitchers that did so well at first, are getting hit, hard. And while the back of their bullpen has been solid, the rest of it looks worse than the Reds. Even Lynn is starting to get hit harder, just like last year. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and we are starting to see that cost them runs and wins.

It was a bad week, but I'm actually more optimistic about the Reds chances of winning the Central than I was a week ago.

So the Cardinals finally had a bad week and still managed to go 4-3 vs. the west leading Diamondbacks and on the road against the second best team in the NL. Why does that make you optimistic?

[757690]

So the Cardinals finally had a bad week and still managed to go 4-3 vs. the west leading Diamondbacks and on the road against the second best team in the NL. Why does that make you optimistic?

Really 4-4 if you count the last game against the Royals, but whose counting ;)

It's not their record, it's how they played. The back of their rotation, Lynn, Wacha and Lyons had 4 rough starts in there. Everyone in there pen besides Mujica and Rosenthal were hit hard. Miller is due for a correction, and regardless, he's going to have to be shut down before the season ends. And the Cards defense continues to be bad. That will catch up to a team.

The cracks are showing, the water is seeping in and filling up the bottom of the boat. It's only a matter of time, before it starts sinking.

The Reds have one flaw, their bullpen. A much easier fix.

[CardsFanBob]

After what seemed like a horrible week by the Reds, full of missed opportunities and blown leads, and blowouts, the Reds are only four games out.

The reason? The Cards are showing serious cracks in their talent. The replacement pitchers that did so well at first, are getting hit, hard. And while the back of their bullpen has been solid, the rest of it looks worse than the Reds. Even Lynn is starting to get hit harder, just like last year. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and we are starting to see that cost them runs and wins.

It was a bad week, but I'm actually more optimistic about the Reds chances of winning the Central than I was a week ago.

I still see the Reds in this thing until the very end. That said... I'm not sure how this past week can make you feel better. What replacement pitchers are really getting hit hard? Wacha in his second start? Whom else? If anything, I think the Cards found they have a new weapon in Kevin Siegrist. The guy is a lefty who straight delivers 96 MPH gas.

Lynn had one of his worst starts of the year yesterday, and he still was okay. I'm not sure that I'd write him off just yet. He still pitched pretty well; your boys just did a good job of connecting on some tough pitches.

And worst defensive team in baseball? I know they had a few errors in this past series, but going into the series, they had the best fielding percentage in MLB. So, that doesn't really hold water.

Something to consider: The Cardinals next 10 games are against the Mets, Marlins, and Cubs.

[redhat]

BABIP with RISP is not a predictive stat. We can tell with great accuracy, what a team's BABIP with RISP will be by looking at the team's BABIP overall. The two will be very close at the end of every season.Sorry, that's simply wrong, as I and others have already explained.

If what you suggest is true, that pitchers are not as effective from the stretch as they are from the windup, then why don't the stats back that up?Once again, you're just looking at stats and not watching the game.

If pitchers are just as effective from the stretch as from the windup, why doesn't every starting pitcher work from the stretch all the time? Of course they don't, because they are more effective from the windup.

Relievers spend most of their time pitching from the stretch, and some of them even do it when there's no one on base. Their work is different from starters because they usually only have to pitch to a few batters, and they're looking for a way to make their delivery more repeatable.

Because of the way they're used, they pitch more effectively as a group.

Get your head out of the stat sites and actually watch the game once in awhile. Really, you'll learn more by observing than by reading.

[757690]

I still see the Reds in this thing until the very end. That said... I'm not sure how this past week can make you feel better. What replacement pitchers are really getting hit hard? Wacha in his second start? Whom else? If anything, I think the Cards found they have a new weapon in Kevin Siegrist. The guy is a lefty who straight delivers 96 MPH gas.

Lynn had one of his worst starts of the year yesterday, and he still was okay. I'm not sure that I'd write him off just yet. He still pitched pretty well; your boys just did a good job of connecting on some tough pitches.

And worst defensive team in baseball? I know they had a few errors in this past series, but going into the series, they had the best fielding percentage in MLB. So, that doesn't really hold water.

Something to consider: The Cardinals next 10 games are against the Mets, Marlins, and Cubs.

Cards are ranked 25th out of 30 teams defensively by UZR and dead last by the Fielding Bible.

[RedlegJake]

Reading these last few posts I am amazed at how condes ending and belittling we are beccoming toward each other. Not all of us have taken stat courses...I'll beg a minority have. Can you attempt to instruct us non actuaries with a bit more indulgence and a lot less snottiness? I have learned so much from posters here but, if that's the attitude that RMR and MWM and M2 and others like them had I would have shut them out and missed the instruction...

Enjoyed the stat analysis from all but really,really hated the accompanying snark.:confused:

[CardsFanBob]

Really 4-4 if you count the last game against the Royals, but whose counting ;)

It's not their record, it's how they played. The back of their rotation, Lynn, Wacha and Lyons had 4 rough starts in there. Everyone in there pen besides Mujica and Rosenthal were hit hard. Miller is due for a correction, and regardless, he's going to have to be shut down before the season ends. And the Cards defense continues to be bad. That will catch up to a team.

The cracks are showing, the water is seeping in and filling up the bottom of the boat. It's only a matter of time, before it starts sinking.

The Reds have one flaw, their bullpen. A much easier fix.


I think you're being a tad dramatic, especially given the fact that the Cardinals have only lost two series all year -- and they just took two of three from the second best team in baseball... in their own park.

By the way, Westbrook should be back on Friday. That will send one of the young arms back to Memphis; I'm thinking it will likely be Wacha, as they seem to really want to gently bring him into pro ball.

We'll see about Miller. I agree; I don't think he'll continue to pitch with an ERA below 2 all year. If so, he'd win the Cy Young. But he still looks incredibly good, and he's been dominating essentially throwing two pitches: His fastball and breaking ball. He hasn't even needed his change up that much. It will be interesting to see if they start having him skip a few starts in the second half of the season. I think they're intending to, as they have Carlos Martinez getting stretched back out in AAA ball. And they'll either have Wacha or Lyons in Memphis too (assuming Westbrook stays healthy the rest of the year.)



Cards are ranked 25th out of 30 teams defensively by UZR and dead last by the Fielding Bible.

Interesting disparity. And it makes sense. The Cardinals pretty much field most balls hit at them, but they don't have a ton of range. Holliday isn't exactly graceful, and Beltran doesn't move as well. Kozma fields anything somewhat near him, but don't ask him to stretch to make a play.

I understand what those rankings mean, but I've always wondered, what website do you need to go to to find them?

[CardsFanBob]

By the way, I would suggest that the Reds have a bigger issue than just relief pitching.

You need a left fielder. Badly. And I'm talking about a legitimate middle of the order hitter. You find that, and your offense would become absolutely scary.

I'm not talking about a 30 or 40 homer guy. You need someone who just puts that bat on the ball and drives in runs no matter what. Kind of like how Allen Craig is performing this year. It would elongate your line up and drive pitchers batty.

[_Sir_Charles_]

By the way, I would suggest that the Reds have a bigger issue than just relief pitching.

You need a left fielder. Badly. And I'm talking about a legitimate middle of the order hitter. You find that, and your offense would become absolutely scary.

I'm not talking about a 30 or 40 homer guy. You need someone who just puts that bat on the ball and drives in runs no matter what. Kind of like how Allen Craig is performing this year. It would elongate your line up and drive pitchers batty.

I don't think anybody here would disagree with this...but it's easier said than done.

[CardsFanBob]

I don't think anybody here would disagree with this...but it's easier said than done.


Walt will find a way. He always does. Now, it may take another couple of months until we get closer to the trade deadline and teams realize that their season is lost, but he'll find a veteran. When he does, your lineup will look much scarier.

All that matters is the end of the season. Even if the Cards run away with the division (which I don't think they will), it just matters that you get a seat in that Wild Card playoff game. Win that, and everyone is on equal footing. You know that as well as we do in St. Louis. Anything can happen once you're in the playoffs.

[redhat]

You need a left fielder. Badly. And I'm talking about a legitimate middle of the order hitter. You find that, and your offense would become absolutely scary.I'm sure the Reds planned for Ryan Ludwick to be that guy. Hard to replace that kind of production early. If he's not back close to the trade deadline, count on Jocketty to address the situation.

[CardsFanBob]

I think that would be a bad move to count on anything from Ludwick, given his type of injury. Shoulders are bad, bad news. I wouldn't count on getting anything from Luddy the rest of the year... if I were a Reds fan.

[Kc61]

By the way, I would suggest that the Reds have a bigger issue than just relief pitching.

You need a left fielder. Badly. And I'm talking about a legitimate middle of the order hitter. You find that, and your offense would become absolutely scary.

I'm not talking about a 30 or 40 homer guy. You need someone who just puts that bat on the ball and drives in runs no matter what. Kind of like how Allen Craig is performing this year. It would elongate your line up and drive pitchers batty.

I agree entirely and I don't excuse the Reds FO for not getting somebody. Ludwick was hurt on day one, long recovery time, they should have obtained somebody by now. Somebody with some power. A team playing at GABP should have better slugging numbers.

And by the way, Craig's at bat the other day (Friday night?) when he fouled off pitches and finally got a bases loaded single was one of the finest I've seen all year.

[RadfordVA]

Cards have the highest OPS with runners on in MLB. They are 25th with no one on. You really couldn't pick when to get your hits much better than they have. The two stats will most certainly start to meet each other somewhere down the line.

Reds have a .729 OPS with runners on and .730 with no one.


Cards have an OPS of .859 with runners on. It was .780 last year. With mostly the same cast I would expect it to end up around that number. Rangers led last season with .806

[jojo]

Sorry, that's simply wrong, as I and others have already explained.
Once again, you're just looking at stats and not watching the game.

Actually, 75's point about BABIP/RISP resembling overall BABIP is correct. Over the course of a season, team BABIP/RISP will closely resemble overall team BABIP, generally being within .010 of one another because the season is a sufficiently long sample to allow for wide swings in BABIP/RISP to regress back to the mean.


If pitchers are just as effective from the stretch as from the windup, why doesn't every starting pitcher work from the stretch all the time? Of course they don't, because they are more effective from the windup.

Relievers spend most of their time pitching from the stretch, and some of them even do it when there's no one on base. Their work is different from starters because they usually only have to pitch to a few batters, and they're looking for a way to make their delivery more repeatable.

That may be but it doesn't show up as differences between BABIP/RISP and overall BABIP.


Get your head out of the stat sites and actually watch the game once in awhile. Really, you'll learn more by observing than by reading.

There are lots of ways to learn. One such way would be to test one's assumptions against data. In this case 75's point about BABIP stands when tested against the data.

[redhat]

Cards have the highest OPS with runners on in MLB. They are 25th with no one on. You really couldn't pick when to get your hits much better than they have. The two stats will most certainly start to meet each other somewhere down the line.Why? They didn't last year.

Cards in 2012 finished with .741 OPS with none on and .780 with runners on.

With mostly the same cast I would expect it to end up around that number.There's a bigger difference than you think this year.

For one, Matt Carpenter is getting most of the time at second base. He's a regular instead of a part time player. He's fifth in the league in WAR.

For another, the Cards had one of the weakest benches in MLB last year. Not true this season with Matt Adams on it.

[CardsFanBob]

I agree entirely and I don't excuse the Reds FO for not getting somebody. Ludwick was hurt on day one, long recovery time, they should have obtained somebody by now. Somebody with some power. A team playing at GABP should have better slugging numbers.

And by the way, Craig's at bat the other day (Friday night?) when he fouled off pitches and finally got a bases loaded single was one of the finest I've seen all year.


It's awfully tough to make an impact trade for an impact bat this early in the season. No front office is going to be willing to trade major talent that soon, as it shows your fans that you're not serious about competing.

There will be teams ready to cash in their season by mid July. Then, Walt can pounce. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get another outfielder whose contract is about to expire and who may be motivated to put on an offensive display before hitting FA.

[redhat]

There are lots of ways to learn. One such way would be to test one's assumptions against data.That isn't as simple as you make it sound. In order to test assumptions against data you need to consider what other mechanisms might be at work that explain the data as well or better than your own.

75's problems are 1) he doesn't understand how to interpret the data he's looking at and 2) he has pet assumptions that he sticks to whether the data back him up or not.

For instance, he claims that the difference in offensive stats with runners on and bases empty is negligible. That is clearly false. This season, over MLB as a whole, OPS is .737 with runners on and .705 with the bases empty. In 2012 it was .748 vs .707. In 2011 it was .734 vs .708. And in 2010 it was .750 vs. .711. Those are significant differences.

For another, his claim that overall BABIP and BABIP with RISP are always very close is also false. You can convince yourself this is true if you look only at MLB averages. From 2011 to 2013, BABIP with RISP vs Overall:
2011 .290 .295
2012 .293 .297
2013 .297 .295

However, individual teams display more variability. Cards for the same period:
2011 .312 .305
2012 .293 .316
2013 .398 .321

You can likely find teams that fit 75's assumption and teams that violate it more than the Cards do.

[jojo]

For another, his claim that overall BABIP and BABIP with RISP are always very close is also false. You can convince yourself this is true if you look only at MLB averages. From 2011 to 2013, BABIP with RISP vs Overall:
2011 .290 .295
2012 .293 .297
2013 .297 .295

These are almost identical.
However, individual teams display more variability. Cards for the same period:
2011 .312 .305
2012 .293 .316
2013 .398 .321

These aren't that different either as you'll see the disparity for 2013 shrink as the season goes on and what's more, there isn't really a pattern that backs up your position that BABIP/RISP is higher. Your assertion is false.

[SpiritofStLouis]

Good points.

But I always assumed the Cardinal offense would decrease this season, based on players like Jay, Craig, Carpenter, Descalso, Kozma and maybe even Freese declining due to overexposure. Freese may be the real deal, but the other guys have gotten by on the league not knowing the, too well. As they play more, and a book develops on them, their numbers will level off or sometimes even crater.

It looks like that is happening.

Descalso and Kozma are pretty much just what they are, .250 hitters with limited pop and average gloves (at best). They drive in runs because there are usually guys on base.

Jay is one of the streakiest players I've ever witnessed. His career average is around .300, but he achieves it by hitting .400 for 3 weeks, then hitting .150 for three weeks. He wasn't suited for the lead off spot, doesn't walk enough, but he works in the 6-7 spot. He will probably be a 4th OFer next year when Taveras arrives.

Freese is a .280 hitter who will give you 20 or so homers and 80 RBI. Perfect for the 6 hole.

Craig is an RBI machine and deadly with RISP (his .400 last year led baseball). I dispute your contention that there isn't a book on him as of yet, there is and he still produces.

Carpenter is the wild card. He has always hit, and with doubles power. Currently, he has the best plate discipline and takes the best ABs on the team. Will he hit .335 for a whole season ?, probably not, but he will hit around .305 with an excellent K /BB ratio.

Sure, the numbers might well level off, but crater ? I think not.

[CardsFanBob]

Descalso and Kozma are pretty much just what they are, .250 hitters with limited pop and average gloves (at best). They drive in runs because there are usually guys on base.

Jay is one of the streakiest players I've ever witnessed. His career average is around .300, but he achieves it by hitting .400 for 3 weeks, then hitting .150 for three weeks. He wasn't suited for the lead off spot, doesn't walk enough, but he works in the 6-7 spot. He will probably be a 4th OFer next year when Taveras arrives.

Freese is a .280 hitter who will give you 20 or so homers and 80 RBI. Perfect for the 6 hole.

Craig is an RBI machine and deadly with RISP (his .400 last year led baseball). I dispute your contention that there isn't a book on him as of yet, there is and he still produces.

Carpenter is the wild card. He has always hit, and with doubles power. Currently, he has the best plate discipline and takes the best ABs on the team. Will he hit .335 for a whole season ?, probably not, but he will hit around .305 with an excellent K /BB ratio.

Sure, the numbers might well level off, but crater ? I think not.


Yeah, I don't get the comment at all. Those guys have a ton of at bats in proball. I'm not sure where Craig's power has been this year so far, but the guy is a stud and will be an All Star in the future.

[757690]

Yeah, I don't get the comment at all. Those guys have a ton of at bats in proball. I'm not sure where Craig's power has been this year so far, but the guy is a stud and will be an All Star in the future.

Very deceptive post by SoS.

My comment was made at the beginning of the season.

At the time of the post:

Kozma had 90 career AB's
Carpenter had 200 Career AB's
Descalso had 700 careeer AB's
Craig had 800 career AB's
Jay had 1100 career AB's

And everyone except Carpenter has regressed from their numbers at the beginning of the season. Descalso has stayed the same.

[MikeThierry]

Very deceptive post by SoS.

My comment was made at the beginning of the season.

At the time of the post:

Kozma had 90 career AB's
Carpenter had 200 Career AB's
Descalso had 700 careeer AB's
Craig had 800 career AB's
Jay had 1100 career AB's

And everyone except Carpenter has regressed from their numbers at the beginning of the season. Descalso has stayed the same.

I guess it depends what you're looking at because Craig and Jay have been hitting a lot better. Descalso has even been better.

Allen Craig:

April/March: .263 BA, .297 OBP, .358 SLG, .655 OPS
May: .356 BA, .414 OBP, .538 SLG, .952 OPS
June: .300 BA, .317 OBp, .400 SLG, .713 OPS

Jon Jay:

April/March: .213 BA, .293 OBP, .337 SLG, .630 OPS
May: .284 .360 .389 .750
June: .286 .359 .314 .673


June is still early, so it's hard to conclude anything on what these players will do this month.

[CardsFanBob]

Very deceptive post by SoS.

My comment was made at the beginning of the season.

At the time of the post:

Kozma had 90 career AB's
Carpenter had 200 Career AB's
Descalso had 700 careeer AB's
Craig had 800 career AB's
Jay had 1100 career AB's

And everyone except Carpenter has regressed from their numbers at the beginning of the season. Descalso has stayed the same.


Of those who you highlight, I really only see Craig having a long-term, successful future. While his homer numbers are down, he's still having a very, very strong season.

He and Carpenter are the only two with serious long-term plans with the Cardinals. I think this season is Jay's last as a starter. There's a reason why they're pushing Oscar Tavares from a corner outfield spot to center.

Descalso is a bench player and has a penchant for getting big hits, late in games. He's a good second baseman and a below average short stop. He'll never be more than a bench player in STL.

I have no idea what Kozma's role is. I have a hard time believing they'll invest significant dollars in him. At this poitn, everything he provides is a bonus, as they were close to cutting him just last year.

[MikeThierry]

Of those who you highlight, I really only see Craig having a long-term, successful future. While his homer numbers are down, he's still having a very, very strong season.

He and Carpenter are the only two with serious long-term plans with the Cardinals. I think this season is Jay's last as a starter. There's a reason why they're pushing Oscar Tavares from a corner outfield spot to center.

Descalso is a bench player and has a penchant for getting big hits, late in games. He's a good second baseman and a below average short stop. He'll never be more than a bench player in STL.

I have no idea what Kozma's role is. I have a hard time believing they'll invest significant dollars in him. At this poitn, everything he provides is a bonus, as they were close to cutting him just last year.

Come on Kolten Wong :D

[CardsFanBob]

Come on Kolten Wong :D


The idea of Carp and Wong batting a top the line up is quite attractive.

I suppose they'll move Carp to third and Wong to second (obviously). I'm guessing this ensures Freese doesn't get his long-term deal. That's a shame, but the guy just can't stay healthy and he's already in his early 30's.

[MikeThierry]

The idea of Carp and Wong batting a top the line up is quite attractive.

I suppose they'll move Carp to third and Wong to second (obviously). I'm guessing this ensures Freese doesn't get his long-term deal. That's a shame, but the guy just can't stay healthy and he's already in his early 30's.

I have a feeling it's the reason why they didn't sign him to a long term deal this off season. Mo was probably waiting to see how Carpenter would play on a regular basis.

[reds1869]

As a Reds fan I don't want Wong in the majors. As someone who owns him in my fantasy keeper league I'm drooling. :laugh:

[MikeThierry]

As a Reds fan I don't want Wong in the majors. As someone who owns him in my fantasy keeper league I'm drooling. :laugh:

Wong and Taveras will be up next year. I wish you plenty more years of drool worthy fantasy leagues :)

[SpiritofStLouis]

Come on Kolten Wong :D

Wong is a good problem to have. MC has proven he can manage 2B, and he has the best ABs of anyone on the team. His production doesn't translate to 3B favorably, and I believe in Freese to produce.

Neither MC or Wong have the ability to play SS, and all the other positions are a log jam.

As of now, the only position I see for Wong going forward is as a utility guy, although he is only suited for 2B. Wong's speed and defense don't make up for MC's bat.

Like I said, good problem to have.

[CardsFanBob]

I still think he needs to take more walks -- Wong that is. The kid has shown he can hit. But that OBP needs to be higher.

[CardsFanBob]

Wong is a good problem to have. MC has proven he can manage 2B, and he has the best ABs of anyone on the team. His production doesn't translate to 3B favorably, and I believe in Freese to produce.

Neither MC or Wong have the ability to play SS, and all the other positions are a log jam.

As of now, the only position I see for Wong going forward is as a utility guy, although he is only suited for 2B. Wong's speed and defense don't make up for MC's bat.

Like I said, good problem to have.

Boy. I think Wong is too good to just be a utility player. Again, I think Freese's contract issue is going to be the thing that sends him out of town... That and his inability to stay healthy.

I know Carpenter wouldn't be the ideal 3rd baseman -- only because of a lack of power -- but if he can continue to be a force as a lead off man... That's unreal value.

[MikeThierry]

There is 0% chance Wong is a utility guy. He just has too much talent and ability. I believe that people need to stop thinking in terms of "well this guy plays position X, so he needs Y production". If a team can supply that power somewhere else and the guy at 3B is a great leadoff guy, he's valuable to the team. No Matt Carpenter might not hit even 15 HR's, but if Taveras and Wong can supply that power, I don't care if Carpenter is a power guy. He's a great leadoff guy that the Cardinals need going forward.

[SpiritofStLouis]

P.S. How does MC and Taveras look in the 1-2 spot ?

MCarp
Taveras
Holliday
Craig
Yadi
Adams
Freese
SS (Kozmo or Jackson)

Beltran ? Who knows, but would love him off the bench.

[reds1869]

I believe that people need to stop thinking in terms of "well this guy plays position X, so he needs Y production".

Bingo. If I can get 30 steals with a .400 OBP from my slap hitting first baseman I am all over it. As long as the power comes from somewhere else (say a power hitting shortstop) everything will work out. At the end of the day a positive run differential is what matters, not how you go about getting there.

[CardsFanBob]

P.S. How does MC and Taveras look in the 1-2 spot ?

MCarp
Taveras
Holliday
Craig
Yadi
Adams
Freese
SS (Kozmo or Jackson)

Beltran ? Who knows, but would love him off the bench.


Not bad. But I think there's zero chance that Beltran stays to sit on the bench. I was just reading somewhere that he wants to try and be a starter for as long as possilbe in order to have the best numbers ever for a Puerto Rican major leaguer. He mentioned having no problem DH'ing. Unless the DH rule pops up soon in the NL -- and I think it's a few years away still -- that's no going to happen in STL.

[SpiritofStLouis]

There is 0% chance Wong is a utility guy. He just has too much talent and ability. I believe that people need to stop thinking in terms of "well this guy plays position X, so he needs Y production". If a team can supply that power somewhere else and the guy at 3B is a great leadoff guy, he's valuable to the team. No Matt Carpenter might not hit even 15 HR's, but if Taveras and Wong can supply that power, I don't care if Carpenter is a power guy. He's a great leadoff guy that the Cardinals need going forward.

Just because Wong is the # 1 rated 2B prospect is no guarantee for success. I'm not concerned about Freese's future earnings, at least not yet. He isn't eligible for FA until 2016, and if he does get a significant upgrade in pay this winter (which would still be less than 9 large), it makes him less attractive for a trade than someone younger, who is years away from arbitration.

I'm not suggesting trading anyone, just that I'm not keen in unloading Freese at this point. Plus, he just turned 30 in April.

[SpiritofStLouis]

Not bad. But I think there's zero chance that Beltran stays to sit on the bench. I was just reading somewhere that he wants to try and be a starter for as long as possilbe in order to have the best numbers ever for a Puerto Rican major leaguer. He mentioned having no problem DH'ing. Unless the DH rule pops up soon in the NL -- and I think it's a few years away still -- that's no going to happen in STL.

I agree, I think that the Redbirds will tender Beltran, and he will get a multi year deal from an AL team. The Cardinals will get a sandwich pick.

As for the DH in the senior circuit, I think it will become a reality in 2015. Personally, I don't like it, but I'm a fan, I don't count. That's where Adams comes in, he'd be perfectly suited for it, and as loaded as the Cardinals' farm system is, after Taveras, the other big bats are down in the organization.

[CardsFanBob]

I agree, I think that the Redbirds will tender Beltran, and he will get a multi year deal from an AL team. The Cardinals will get a sandwich pick.

As for the DH in the senior circuit, I think it will become a reality in 2015. Personally, I don't like it, but I'm a fan, I don't count. That's where Adams comes in, he'd be perfectly suited for it, and as loaded as the Cardinals' farm system is, after Taveras, the other big bats are down in the organization.

Yup. I agree with all of that. Beltran will get us another first rounder.

And they'll hold on to Adams because 2015 seems to be the year that everyone is saying the DH finally comes to the NL.

[Tom Servo]

^ Totally agree boyos, things are going great, as usual, for us!!

http://i.imgur.com/UwQeIx9.jpg

[TOBTTReds]

What the heck happened here? Is this a Cards message board? We literally have a conversation going on between 3 STL fans and no Reds fans. Can we bang this thread already?

[RedEye]

Cardinals just keep on whining.

Fixed that. Just wanted to make sure someone posted this on the thread somewhere. :D

[SpiritofStLouis]

Fixed that. Just wanted to make sure someone posted this on the thread somewhere. :D

Your incisive commentary is both documented and recognized. I take umbrage with the assertion that the Cardinal fans posting on this thread are whining.

Some would consider that complaining about a thread involving primarily St.Louis fans could be construed as whining. One would hope that those who might take the time and effort to respond would actually offer something of substance to the conversation.

Maybe not.

[RedEye]

Your incisive commentary is both documented and recognized. I take umbrage with the assertion that the Cardinal fans posting on this thread are whining.

Some would consider that complaining about a thread involving primarily St.Louis fans could be construed as whining. One would hope that those who might take the time and effort to respond would actually offer something of substance to the conversation.

Maybe not.

I really meant it as a joke; I admit not in very good taste.

That said, lord knows there has been a lot of trolling by Cards fans on the other threads of late. Don't get me wrong -- I generally appreciate your contributions and those of several others, but the general trend around here has been pretty annoying.

[Tony Cloninger]

Your incisive commentary is both documented and recognized. I take umbrage with the assertion that the Cardinal fans posting on this thread are whining.

Some would consider that complaining about a thread involving primarily St.Louis fans could be construed as whining. One would hope that those who might take the time and effort to respond would actually offer something of substance to the conversation.

Maybe not.


How long do you think this stuff would last on a Cardinals board? Like Viva El Birdos.... who complain about their own team, just as bad as they want to act like regression is a word they never heard of when it comes to their team?

[Vottomatic]

I heard on the radio that on their off day today, several of the Cardinals players hit the casino and hit it big. They even win big on their off days! :D

(just kidding of course about the casino)

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

Can you even begin to imagine the unprecedented levels of whining that would have occurred by their fans if the Cardinals were forced to play in that fog yesterday? It would have been a 5-year-old boy stomping his feet around the toy store tantrum.

No idea how the explanation to CC's son would have gone either.

[MikeThierry]

What the heck happened here? Is this a Cards message board? We literally have a conversation going on between 3 STL fans and no Reds fans. Can we bang this thread already?

Maybe this is the pain meds talking but if you don't want to see this conversation, just don't click on the thread. Better yet, make it a rule on here that Reds fans don't start threads about the Cardinals. I don't know why this concept is so difficult to understand here by some of the posters who complain constantly about this issue.

[Boss-Hog]

Ditto to what I said in the other Cardinals thread I just closed. If you have a topic involving the Cardinals that covers new ground, by all means, post it. Otherwise, moving forward, there won't be anymore random threads like this.