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View Full Version : Trade idea: Arroyo for Michael Young?



tsdavis11
05-08-2013, 05:05 PM
Thread title pretty much says it all. Guys on MLBN were discussing whether or not the Phil's are sellers due to Halladay going down. It got me thinking and this seemed like it could make sense for both sides. Obviously it probably wouldn't be quite this straight-forward and I'm thinking we'd need to throw in an additional part like Hannahan. This would put Frazier in LF and Young would be just about perfect in the 2 spot.

Thoughts?

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 05:21 PM
I'd love to have Michael young. Period. Arroyo has been great for the reds, but once he goes 5 innings anymore you have to put yourself on he might get pounded watch and dusty has a propensity to pitch him one inning too long. I'd go for that deal if cueto can return and show he's strong. Idk if the phillies would go for it.

toledodan
05-08-2013, 05:25 PM
i love the idea but why would philly take sunshine? it would cost prospects but he would fit perfect in the two hole.

bigredmechanism
05-08-2013, 05:39 PM
All the deferred money in his contract vests immediately if he is traded. Highly unlikely to happen.

tsdavis11
05-08-2013, 05:41 PM
Good chance we'd have to throw in a B-level prospect at AA or above as well, but picking Arroyo up now would give them a chance to salvage their season after the unexpected loss of Halladay. Wish I knew more about their farm system as that might ultimately be what would determine if this deal makes any sense for them.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 05:57 PM
All the deferred money in his contract vests immediately if he is traded. Highly unlikely to happen.

That's an issue

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 06:05 PM
All the deferred money in his contract vests immediately if he is traded. Highly unlikely to happen.

Why didnt it vest when he was traded to Philly?

Goose1701
05-08-2013, 06:10 PM
Micheal Young? Gross. For one thing, he's a one year rental making way too much money, who's putting up a superficially high line thanks to an almost .400 BABIP. Secondly, I'd rather have Frazier at third because Young's defense sucks.

Arroyo for Young I suppose isn't a bad idea in theory, but there really isn't anywhere for Young to play.

Goose1701
05-08-2013, 06:11 PM
Why didnt it vest when he was traded to Philly?

Maybe he was referring to Arroyo?

From Cot's


3 years/$35M (2011-13)
signed extension with Cincinnati 12/4/10, reworking option year in previous contract
$15M deferred without interest, paid through 2021, reducing present-day AAV to $28.9M
11:$6.5M, 12:$7M, 13:$6.5M
if traded, deferrals are voided and paid up-front

RedlegJake
05-08-2013, 06:23 PM
Maybe he was referring to Arroyo?

From Cot's

yes he referred to Arroyo. As to the trade idea money and contracts make it unlikely. Plus Young would be a further hit on D. Arroyo's contract terms make him a really difficult player to dangle.

Salukifan2
05-08-2013, 06:27 PM
Does arroyo have 10 and 5 status?

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 06:33 PM
Micheal Young? Gross. For one thing, he's a one year rental making way too much money, who's putting up a superficially high line thanks to an almost .400 BABIP. Secondly, I'd rather have Frazier at third because Young's defense sucks.

Arroyo for Young I suppose isn't a bad idea in theory, but there really isn't anywhere for Young to play.

Youngs been a perennial 100 RBI guy and has high pressure World Series experience. The dude can flat hit regardless of what his BABIP says. He'd outhit Frazier any day of the week. Maybe not the same power but that's not this teams issue.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 06:41 PM
yes he referred to Arroyo. As to the trade idea money and contracts make it unlikely. Plus Young would be a further hit on D. Arroyo's contract terms make him a really difficult player to dangle.

That contract does. It's not like we could slide young in at first or dh. I'd love that bat though.

CySeymour
05-08-2013, 06:43 PM
Youngs been a perennial 100 RBI guy and has high pressure World Series experience. The dude can flat hit regardless of what his BABIP says. He'd outhit Frazier any day of the week. Maybe not the same power but that's not this teams issue.

Young has driven 100 runs twice. He's coming off of a season were he had a WAR of -2.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 06:46 PM
Young has driven 100 runs twice. He's coming off of a season were he had a WAR of -2.

Frazier has driven in 100 when and played in the World Series twice when? And has veteran leadership when? And makes consistent contact when? lets not get in the who hs better hitter frazier ir young bc its young unless you need power.
I must have missed the stop that picked up the Frazier bandwagon.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 06:48 PM
Young has driven 100 runs twice. He's coming off of a season were he had a WAR of -2.

With several seasons in the mid to high 90s too. I rounded up. How many guys on the reds do that again?

CySeymour
05-08-2013, 06:58 PM
With several seasons in the mid to high 90s too. I rounded up. How many guys on the reds do that again?

How many Reds have been active as long as Young? He's 36 and on the decline. He hasn't put up a 3 WAR season since 2008 and has mostly been a defensive liability for his whole career.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 07:01 PM
How many Reds have been active as long as Young? He's 36 and on the decline. He hasn't put up a 3 WAR season since 2008 and has mostly been a defensive liability for his whole career.

Our guys have been active long enough to have a 100 RBI season. Votto only one that's active. How many .300 hitters do we have? Votto and choo. God forbid we put another one between them. He's old and done just like everyone said about rolen. This drives me nuts. He's make the team better and Frazier can hit 230 something and play left.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 07:06 PM
But in SABR world strikeouts don't matter and closers don't matter lets trade chapman for Stanton and forget it. This stuff is driving me nuts. It's not directed at you cy but people on here in general are like itching to trade Bruce or chapman but defend Frazier to near the death. I can definitely see where you are coming from with youngs D but I really doubt it's be worse than fraziers and this team desperately needs a consistent contact hitter and honestly if cueto comes back arroyo won't be a huge loss at this point in his career.

It just seems like people think players are collections of stats and not matter what spot it situation you plug them in they will be those stats. Stats and even advanced SABR stats (which I find useful btw) are the result if a player in a certain lineup and environment and no one stat truely encompasses the total value of a player no matter how hard we try to make one that does.

CySeymour
05-08-2013, 07:49 PM
Our guys have been active long enough to have a 100 RBI season. Votto only one that's active. How many .300 hitters do we have? Votto and choo. God forbid we put another one between them. He's old and done just like everyone said about rolen. This drives me nuts. He's make the team better and Frazier can hit 230 something and play left.

Bruce has been in the high 90's twice. Phillips has had over 90 twice. Ludwick has a 100 RBI season and one in the high 90's.

tsdavis11
05-08-2013, 08:16 PM
I wouldn't advocate trading Frazier for Young, the idea would be to have both. Young would definitely be a 1 year rental, but then so would Arroyo be for the Phil's. Young has a history of making contact and getting on base, plus he's right-handed. Sounds like the perfect fit between Choo and Votto to me. I'm not sure if we match up with the Phil's as a trade partner, but if we do, Halladay going down unexpectedly provides us with the perfect opportunity if we move quickly and maybe get them to react to a sudden need.

Goose1701
05-08-2013, 08:18 PM
Youngs been a perennial 100 RBI guy and has high pressure World Series experience. The dude can flat hit regardless of what his BABIP says. He'd outhit Frazier any day of the week. Maybe not the same power but that's not this teams issue.

RBI's don't have anything to do with whether a player is a good hitter or not and the World Series experience is completely irrelevant.(Not to mention he has a .684 OPS in those 2 WS).

Given normal luck, Young might be a slightly better hitter than Frazier overall, but I'd taking Frazier's defense, upside, and contract over Young's without thinking twice.

Goose1701
05-08-2013, 08:21 PM
I wouldn't advocate trading Frazier for Young, the idea would be to have both. Young would definitely be a 1 year rental, but then so would Arroyo be for the Phil's. Young has a history of making contact and getting on base, plus he's right-handed. Sounds like the perfect fit between Choo and Votto to me. I'm not sure if we match up with the Phil's as a trade partner, but if we do, Halladay going down unexpectedly provides us with the perfect opportunity if we move quickly and maybe get them to react to a sudden need.

Where would Young play though? If we had the DH, then I'd be all for sticking him there and in the #2 hole like you guys suggest.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 08:23 PM
RBI's don't have anything to do with whether a player is a good hitter or not and the World Series experience is completely irrelevant.(Not to mention he has a .684 OPS in those 2 WS).

Given normal luck, Young might be a slightly better hitter than Frazier overall, but I'd taking Frazier's defense, upside, and contract over Young's without thinking twice.

RBI are important. Sure they are a function of where you hit in the lineup but certain players have a propensity to get them. Others don't. It's not luck or Frazier would be batting cleanup right now and this team would have no issues. On what planet is fraziers D is above average? Is there another Frazier on the team that I'm not watching? And experience in pressures situations matters a ton. So does veteran leadership which this team has none of. We can put Frazier in left and when lutz outplays him we can find a new excuse to keep him.

CySeymour
05-08-2013, 08:28 PM
Oh, and since we're talking about Michael Young and rbi's, it could be noted Todd Frazier is has 15 more this season the Young.

Goose1701
05-08-2013, 08:30 PM
RBI are important. Sure they are a function of where you hit in the lineup but certain players have a propensity to get them. Others don't. It's not luck or Frazier would be batting cleanup right now and this team would have no issues. On what planet is fraziers D is above average? Is there another Frazier on the team that I'm not watching? And experience in pressures situations matters a ton. So does veteran leadership which this team has none of. We can put Frazier in left and when lutz outplays him we can find a new excuse to keep him.

I'm not saying Frazier is Adrian Beltre or Evan Longoria out there, but he seems to be slightly above average to me. I don't recall reading any disparaging reports about his defense at the hot corner. At any rate, he's miles better than Young.

And veteran leadership? Setting aside if that really matters or not(the club has enough veterans), do you really want this (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3826455) kind leadership? A guy who whines, and is selfish, and demands to be traded when things don't go his way?

Also:

But in SABR world strikeouts don't matter and closers don't matter lets trade chapman for Stanton and forget it.

Assuming Chapman stays a closer(sigh), I would do that trade in a heartbeat. Hell I might even do it if Chapman becomes a starter, assuming we would be able to sign Stanton long term that is.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 08:34 PM
Oh, and since we're talking about Michael Young and rbi's, it could be noted Todd Frazier is has 15 more this season the Young.

Can Frazier hit second or cleanup? Nope. Can he get an RBI against someone who is an above average pitcher? Not frequently. Frazier was a better player I wouldn't care if he was a rookie. Young has qualities this team is sorely lacking. Put Todd in left. If he's as good as you guys all think hell have no problem proving it and shutting me up, which he isn't right now.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 08:37 PM
I'm not saying Frazier is Adrian Beltre or Evan Longoria out there, but he seems to be slightly above average to me. I don't recall reading any disparaging reports about his defense at the hot corner. At any rate, he's miles better than Young.

And veteran leadership? Setting aside if that really matters or not(the club has enough veterans), do you really want this (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3826455) kind leadership? A guy who whines, and is selfish, and demands to be traded when things don't go his way?

He's help this team win. I have no doubt. RBI do matter. You can't OBP or OPS a team to death. This team proves that. You need RBI. Runs win gamers. Sure the two are correlated but correlation does not mean causation. Getting on base does not create runs. It creates base runners. If you have no one to knock them in it doesn't matter. RBI directly cause runs. We can lead the known universe is obp but if you can't get them in it doesn't matter.

How many times did Texas bounce young from position to position? They squeezed him out of the picture. The guy could bring an above average contact bat to the reds. They need that desperately. I think he'd do better than Frazier but that's really not the issue. The issue is that he'd be a piece that this team his seriously lacking. For arroyo I'd do the trade. Put Todd in left and let his play settle it.

Goose1701
05-08-2013, 08:41 PM
He's help this team win. I have no doubt. RBI do matter. You can't OBP or OPS a team to death. This team proves that. You need RBI. Runs win gamers. Sure the two are correlated but correlation does not mean causation. Getting on base does not create runs. It creates base runners. If you have no one to knock them in it doesn't matter. RBI directly cause runs. We can lead the known universe is obp but if you can't get them in it doesn't matter.

What? OBP absolutely correlates to runs. Guess what? The Reds are 1st in the NL in BB%, 3rd in the NL in OBP and 2nd in the NL in runs!

tsdavis11
05-08-2013, 08:51 PM
As recently as 2011, Young put up these #'s

OBP .380
SLG .474
OPS .854
AVG .338
Only 78 strikeouts in 631 trips to the plate (I understand and respect the argument that strikeouts don't matter, but in a 2-hole hitter, I want a guy who makes good contact).

He'd be a 1-year rental and Frazier would play LF. Once Ludwick gets back Frazier can split time at both 3B and LF spelling the 2 "old" guys as the season is winding down.

He's not perfect, but IF he's available for another "old" 1-year rental guy in Arroyo, then I would think it's a perfect case of dealing from a strength to fill a need that injuries have created for both ball clubs.

Goose1701
05-08-2013, 08:58 PM
As recently as 2011, Young put up these #'s

OBP .380
SLG .474
OPS .854
AVG .338
Only 78 strikeouts in 631 trips to the plate (I understand and respect the argument that strikeouts don't matter, but in a 2-hole hitter, I want a guy who makes good contact).

He'd be a 1-year rental and Frazier would play LF. Once Ludwick gets back Frazier can split time at both 3B and LF spelling the 2 "old" guys as the season is winding down.

He's not perfect, but IF he's available for another "old" 1-year rental guy in Arroyo, then I would think it's a perfect case of dealing from a strength to fill a need that injuries have created for both ball clubs.

Here's my question though. Is the defensive downgrade at third worth whatever probable offensive upgrade that Young provides over the Heisey/Paul duo in left?

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 09:05 PM
As recently as 2011, Young put up these #'s

OBP .380
SLG .474
OPS .854
AVG .338
Only 78 strikeouts in 631 trips to the plate (I understand and respect the argument that strikeouts don't matter, but in a 2-hole hitter, I want a guy who makes good contact).

He'd be a 1-year rental and Frazier would play LF. Once Ludwick gets back Frazier can split time at both 3B and LF spelling the 2 "old" guys as the season is winding down.

He's not perfect, but IF he's available for another "old" 1-year rental guy in Arroyo, then I would think it's a perfect case of dealing from a strength to fill a need that injuries have created for both ball clubs.

Thank you. I don't think Frazier is horrible but he versus young for the needs of this team it's pretty simple. Young has a 15 year track record if being near or at an all star quality player. His skillset is one that this team desperately needs. So people are telling me they'd not be willing to move a second year guy who is batting 230 something and with the exception of two weeks this year has looked lost at the plate since last September? The move would fill two gaps without having to move prospects that could be used in a later deal for a larger acquisition.

CySeymour
05-08-2013, 09:05 PM
Can Frazier hit second or cleanup? Nope. Can he get an RBI against someone who is an above average pitcher? Not frequently. Frazier was a better player I wouldn't care if he was a rookie. Young has qualities this team is sorely lacking. Put Todd in left. If he's as good as you guys all think hell have no problem proving it and shutting me up, which he isn't right now.

Young isn't a #2 or #4 now, either.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 09:32 PM
Young isn't a #2 or #4 now, either.

He could bat two on this team all day long.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 09:35 PM
And strikeouts matter depending in the situation n that's why it's called situational hitting. You shorten the swing and put the ball in play things happen. If a double play is in order for the most part air it out and see what happens. If there is a runner on third and less than two outs strike outs are huge. They are too in late game situations where you need a base runner. If you put the ball in play luck happens. If you don't the only thing that happens is a string breeze and splinters in your butt when you go sit on the bench.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 09:36 PM
And strikeouts matter depending in the situation n that's why it's called situational hitting. You shorten the swing and put the ball in play things happen. If a double play is in order for the most part air it out and see what happens. If there is a runner on third and less than two outs strike outs are huge. so are late game situations where you need a base runner. If you put the ball in play luck happens. If you don't the only thing that happens is a string breeze and splinters in your butt when you go sit on the bench.

CySeymour
05-08-2013, 09:55 PM
He could bat two on this team all day long.

And he'd be bad at it.


And strikeouts matter depending in the situation n that's why it's called situational hitting. You shorten the swing and put the ball in play things happen. If a double play is in order for the most part air it out and see what happens. If there is a runner on third and less than two outs strike outs are huge. They are too in late game situations where you need a base runner. If you put the ball in play luck happens. If you don't the only thing that happens is a string breeze and splinters in your butt when you go sit on the bench.

What does this have to do with Michael Young?

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 10:13 PM
And he'd be bad at it.



What does this have to do with Michael Young?

And he'd be bad at it? What are our two guys batting now? Cozart is in the interstate. What do strikeouts have to do with young? Well striking out the way Frazier does often flailing at sliders in the dirt is an issue and you guys seem to want to guard him with your life and claim you can't move him for young. So Ks matter here. Cozart Ks quite a bit amd hes our two hole hitter right? Young is a career 302 hitter with a career 348 obp. How does that not make the two spot better? Plus I'd be willing to bet money he'd give quality professional disciplined at bats that we'd never see out of cozart or Frazier.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 10:17 PM
Youngs bat would make this team better. He is a better all around and more disciplined hitter than either Frazier, the guy you guys wouldn't move, and cozart, the guy who he'd be replacing in the two slot. There's really not a legitimate argument that either of these guys could match his hitting ability on a consistent basis. If the argument was contractual or who we were giving up bits arroyo in theory here, I could understand, but there is really no question that young is a better quality hitter than those two.

CySeymour
05-08-2013, 10:18 PM
So your solution is to trade an asset of value for a hitter that though may be better then Cozart hitting second, will still be bad? Sorry, we will just have to agree to disagree on this.

Old school 1983
05-08-2013, 10:28 PM
So your solution is to trade an asset of value for a hitter that though may be better then Cozart hitting second, will still be bad? Sorry, we will just have to agree to disagree on this.

Last time I checked over 300 for a career is considered a sign of greatness. And no he wouldn't be my perfect solution. I'd rather sit back and see if we could grab Headley or if we could realistically go after Stanton do that. I think Alex rios from the sox would be a fit too. As would willingham. I just don't get all the Todd Frazier love on this board I get he's a good guy and a hard worker i love his attitude, but as far as play, to me the guy looks like a backup or platoon player on what is supposed to be a championship caliber team. I'd take youngs bat in the lineup with a Frazier move to left if it was the best available option all day. Especially at the cost of arroyo, when cueto returns, who will probably be gone next year anyway. It is essentially rental for rental

Old school 1983
05-09-2013, 12:11 AM
What? OBP absolutely correlates to runs. Guess what? The Reds are 1st in the NL in BB%, 3rd in the NL in OBP and 2nd in the NL in runs!

I said obp correlates to runs. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. Correlation is not causation. Obp correlates with runs scored. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. If obp caused runs then every base runner would score. That's not the case. There is a correlation between obp and runs meaning generally higher the obp, then there is a probability that you score more runs. But RBI directly cause runs. Basic fact. So while two stats can correlate, it doesn't mean that one directly causes the other. It could be some other factor like RBI.

For example. You could have based loaded every inning and not score a run. But you could hit one homer and win one to nothing. There is a strong correlation between obp and runs but RBI cause runs.

You need a balance of both. Right now the reds are getting strong obp numbers but pretty lack luster RBI numbers from everyone but Phillips. The issue is choo is on. No one gets a hit after or at least gets him over. Then votto bats gets on, and if Phillips doesn't knock him in the next two guys Bruce and Frazier are susceptible to the K which yields nothing with runners on. With young in the two spot I think choo would be at least moved over more if not joined on base by young, and it'd give votto more chances at RBI than he is getting. At that point our two best hitters aside from choo would be getting real chances to cause runs with RISP rather than just Phillips followed by two up and down feast or famine guys.

Old school 1983
05-09-2013, 12:14 AM
Here's my question though. Is the defensive downgrade at third worth whatever probable offensive upgrade that Young provides over the Heisey/Paul duo in left?

I don't think the defense at third would be downgraded that much if st all because fraziers defense is being overvalued. He has improved yes, but I think people are mistaking an improvement with being much better than he actually is.

gilpdawg
05-09-2013, 12:44 AM
Michael Young was once good. He is no longer good. Pass.

Old school 1983
05-09-2013, 01:02 AM
Michael Young was once good. He is no longer good. Pass.

Like I said. If that's all that's avaikae I'd do it. I'd try to hold out for more closer to the deadline. Young still is a better player than some of the players we have though.

RedlegJake
05-09-2013, 08:52 AM
I said obp correlates to runs. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. Correlation is not causation. Obp correlates with runs scored. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. If obp caused runs then every base runner would score. That's not the case. There is a correlation between obp and runs meaning generally higher the obp, then there is a probability that you score more runs. But RBI directly cause runs. Basic fact. So while two stats can correlate, it doesn't mean that one directly causes the other. It could be some other factor like RBI.

For example. You could have based loaded every inning and not score a run. But you could hit one homer and win one to nothing. There is a strong correlation between obp and runs but RBI cause runs.

You need a balance of both. Right now the reds are getting strong obp numbers but pretty lack luster RBI numbers from everyone but Phillips. The issue is choo is on. No one gets a hit after or at least gets him over. Then votto bats gets on, and if Phillips doesn't knock him in the next two guys Bruce and Frazier are susceptible to the K which yields nothing with runners on. With young in the two spot I think choo would be at least moved over more if not joined on base by young, and it'd give votto more chances at RBI than he is getting. At that point our two best hitters aside from choo would be getting real chances to cause runs with RISP rather than just Phillips followed by two up and down feast or famine guys.

You are close but no cigar. Ignore strikeouts. They are not the enemy here. I agree they are bad in certain situations but historically you trade Ks for power. Willie Mays did not shorten up...nor Robby or Mantle. The proper stat to pair with obp in re scoring is SP. High enough slugging with good obp will result in lots of runs. The Reds you call out over and over Frazier and Cozart especially and big time Jay Bruce...are striking out at record clips but not slugging per norms. Add that Mes has been dinking and singling when his minor league forte was slugging and the offense has a problem. Is it strikeouts? Not really other than they are making outs and struggling to drive the ball when they do make contact. 3 of these guys are sophomores and "sophomore jinx" is reality. No curse but the fact teams have a full off season to analyze film and develop full scouting reports. Mes, Frazier and Cozie need to adjust to that...add in the frustrations of the lineup (even Joey seems to be pressing now - ever seen so many bad swings from him as lately? Think he doesn t feel the weight of being the leader?) Frazier? He won't finish hitting .230 but its his sp you need to look at. Same for Cozart. Mes and Bruce I have confidence in. Frazier and Cozart had less impressive minors. Given that Cozart is gold glove caliber just bat him 8th and forget about it. Not his fault Dusty misuses him. Mes will hit and hit for loeer if he gets to play. Dusty again. Frazier has actually played a very very good 3B so far something you continually get wrong Old School. Looking at range and glove he's been quite solid. Again its SP which is all from the first few games. Give me a .500 SP from Todd and he can strikeout all he does and who cares. This is by design a high K high Slugging lineup. Choo was brought to fix the leadoff hole. Everyone else wad supposed to slug at high rates and Walt + company knew there would be scads of Ks. They just figured there'd be lots of doubles and homers as an offset. So far that hasn't proven out.

Goose
05-09-2013, 08:53 AM
Not saying that I wouldn't do the trade, but Frazier is currently tied for seventh in the NL in RBI's, which contradicts some of your arguments.

I said obp correlates to runs. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. Correlation is not causation. Obp correlates with runs scored. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. If obp caused runs then every base runner would score. That's not the case. There is a correlation between obp and runs meaning generally higher the obp, then there is a probability that you score more runs. But RBI directly cause runs. Basic fact. So while two stats can correlate, it doesn't mean that one directly causes the other. It could be some other factor like RBI.

For example. You could have based loaded every inning and not score a run. But you could hit one homer and win one to nothing. There is a strong correlation between obp and runs but RBI cause runs.

You need a balance of both. Right now the reds are getting strong obp numbers but pretty lack luster RBI numbers from everyone but Phillips. The issue is choo is on. No one gets a hit after or at least gets him over. Then votto bats gets on, and if Phillips doesn't knock him in the next two guys Bruce and Frazier are susceptible to the K which yields nothing with runners on. With young in the two spot I think choo would be at least moved over more if not joined on base by young, and it'd give votto more chances at RBI than he is getting. At that point our two best hitters aside from choo would be getting real chances to cause runs with RISP rather than just Phillips followed by two up and down feast or famine guys.

Old school 1983
05-09-2013, 11:38 AM
You are close but no cigar. Ignore strikeouts. They are not the enemy here. I agree they are bad in certain situations but historically you trade Ks for power. Willie Mays did not shorten up...nor Robby or Mantle. The proper stat to pair with obp in re scoring is SP. High enough slugging with good obp will result in lots of runs. The Reds you call out over and over Frazier and Cozart especially and big time Jay Bruce...are striking out at record clips but not slugging per norms. Add that Mes has been dinking and singling when his minor league forte was slugging and the offense has a problem. Is it strikeouts? Not really other than they are making outs and struggling to drive the ball when they do make contact. 3 of these guys are sophomores and "sophomore jinx" is reality. No curse but the fact teams have a full off season to analyze film and develop full scouting reports. Mes, Frazier and Cozie need to adjust to that...add in the frustrations of the lineup (even Joey seems to be pressing now - ever seen so many bad swings from him as lately? Think he doesn t feel the weight of being the leader?) Frazier? He won't finish hitting .230 but its his sp you need to look at. Same for Cozart. Mes and Bruce I have confidence in. Frazier and Cozart had less impressive minors. Given that Cozart is gold glove caliber just bat him 8th and forget about it. Not his fault Dusty misuses him. Mes will hit and hit for loeer if he gets to play. Dusty again. Frazier has actually played a very very good 3B so far something you continually get wrong Old School. Looking at range and glove he's been quite solid. Again its SP which is all from the first few games. Give me a .500 SP from Todd and he can strikeout all he does and who cares. This is by design a high K high Slugging lineup. Choo was brought to fix the leadoff hole. Everyone else wad supposed to slug at high rates and Walt + company knew there would be scads of Ks. They just figured there'd be lots of doubles and homers as an offset. So far that hasn't proven out.

What rubbed me the wrong way was that you said you'd rather not have young and leave Frazier at third and the current blackhoke in left. Obp causes base runners which cause RBI opportunities. Right now with cozart in the two spot our sluggers Votto Phillios Bruce and Frazier are not getting the amount if RBI opportunities which, when teamed with the current lack of power and Ks, leads to a situation where it makes the Ks hurt more than normal. Now insert young. Unlike Cy was saying young will be an above average two hole hitter and get in base and create more obp and thus more RBI chances for the sluggers while moving cozart down to 8 where he belongs.

Furthermore it would play to fraziers strengths which are the ability to play multiple positions(put him in left in a platoon with lutz until one distinguishes himself) and to hit for power. I'm not totally down on Frazier. I think he could be used better. I like your description of the sophomore jinx as well. It's all about adjusting. IMO Frazier isn't going through a jinx though. I really think he overperformed last year (I really hope I'm wrong bc he is a great guy and hard worker and is love to have that on the team if it has production included in it).

But back to the trade idea. Young for arroyo. You would basically be trading a rental for rental and it could be easily Rgued that the rotation would be better once cueto returns and having cingrani in arroyos place. Even more by trading arroyo you would t be giving up prospects that could be used in a later trade for a power hitting left fielder to further fortify the lineup.

REDREAD
05-09-2013, 01:53 PM
I think Arroyo too is too much to give up for Young, but I applaud the OP for floating a different idea out there for discussion.

Old school 1983
05-09-2013, 02:08 PM
I think Arroyo too is too much to give up for Young, but I applaud the OP for floating a different idea out there for discussion.

Maybe. Could you take a look at the thread I have here about Stanton Headley and fowler. In my last post I made a proposal involving the reds getting Nolasco. I'd like an opinion please. I think it sounds jockettyesque.

klw
05-09-2013, 02:19 PM
I like Michael Young as a target especially if the Phillies fall out of things. I doubt that the price is as high as Arroyo. The Phils only sent Texas a AA reliever and the Josh Lindbloom (think Logan Ondrusek) and that was for a 10 million and a full year of Young. I would think the cost for a half season will be less in the Phils are way out of things in a few weeks.

Young's stats by the way:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml

.322/.394/.415/.809 would look great in the 2nd spot. 14 bb's, 20 k's

Old school 1983
05-09-2013, 03:24 PM
I like Michael Young as a target especially if the Phillies fall out of things. I doubt that the price is as high as Arroyo. The Phils only sent Texas a AA reliever and the Josh Lindbloom (think Logan Ondrusek) and that was for a 10 million and a full year of Young. I would think the cost for a half season will be less in the Phils are way out of things in a few weeks.

Young's stats by the way:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml

.322/.394/.415/.809 would look great in the 2nd spot. 14 bb's, 20 k's

I agree.

miamiredskin
05-14-2013, 10:14 AM
I would not consider giving up Arroyo for Young.

Yes, I love him like the brother I never had, and that may be clouding my judgement, but his dependability is extremely rare for a MLB pitcher. He will win about 15 games, and is a fierce competitor. Reds have had too many "talents" (Griffey Jr, Dunn, Stubbs, Bruce) over the years and not enough guys who will not go quietly into that good night.

We depended on Harang, and he went down, we depended on Volquez, and he went down, we depended on Cueto, and he went down. Arroyo has rolled on.

Oh, and who had our best outing in the playoffs last year? In AT&T, no less.

Johnny Fan
05-14-2013, 12:44 PM
We have a third basemen and a LF on the roster, no way Reds make that move....

Goose1701
05-28-2013, 11:52 PM
Just for ****s and giggles:

Frazier-.323 wOBA, 1.5 WAR
Young-.307 wOBA 0.4 WAR

Old school 1983
05-29-2013, 09:19 AM
Just for ****s and giggles:

Frazier-.323 wOBA, 1.5 WAR
Young-.307 wOBA 0.4 WAR

Youngs obp is 40 points higher. He'd be batting second. I think I'd help out more than a guy batting 6th. And besides you wouldn't give up Frazier for young. Frazier could play left or spot in eslewhere. At this point trading him for arroyo would be a bit much but he'd definitely help to make this team better.

CySeymour
05-29-2013, 09:51 AM
Michael Young's OPS+ is now 92. Frazier's is 98. Frazier's WAR is 1.1, Young's is -0.4. Young makes the Reds a worse team, not a better one.

Don Cameron
05-29-2013, 10:02 AM
Frazier, Cozart, Leake--and whoever the whipping boys in this forum are--for the most part are core players. Their salaries are controllable, and as of now, there are no decent minor leaguers to supplant them.

An addition of Michael Young makes NO SENSE financially, or what you are trying to build for now and for the next three to four years. Let's say you give away Ondrusek (a controlled arbitration reliever) AND a single-A prospect for two months of Michael Young? Really?

Plus, depending on when you trade for Young, you are increasing payroll from anywhere to 2 million to 4 million for a player that is marginally better than Frazier.

Now, that 2 to 4 million could have been spent on keeping the arbitration players and/or signing Choo (not a snow ball's chance in hell--in my opinion).

However, another way would be to have the Phillies offset the 2 to 4 million--BUT that would be at a cost of a much more highly qualified prospect.

The Reds are not dealing Frazier, and quite frankly there is no reason to.

Don Cameron
A man who whistles in elevators.

Old school 1983
05-29-2013, 11:57 AM
Michael Young's OPS+ is now 92. Frazier's is 98. Frazier's WAR is 1.1, Young's is -0.4. Young makes the Reds a worse team, not a better one.

Aside from a stat comparison, what about young would make the reds a worse the on the field than Frazier. Especially if Frazier was shifted to left?

And why in the heck would anyone trade Frazier for young? That's just nuts.

Old school 1983
05-29-2013, 01:32 PM
And the whole he'd only make the team marginally better thing just leaves me scratching my head. Of course don't overpay for a guy like that bit ondrusek wouldn't be a great loss nor would a marginal minor league pitcher. And if you can marginally improve a few spots that adds up to a decent amount. Also maybe that marginal improvement or two we didn't make last year would have lead to one more run in game three of the NLDS. So point being marginal improvements can have major impacts...all at the right price of course. Don't overpay for a marginal improvement.

Don Cameron
05-29-2013, 01:56 PM
If Young could be had for a marginal prospect and the Phillies will pick up the remainder of the contract, then I think he would be an excellent August/September addition.

The Reds need a decent right handed hitter with pop that comes off the bench, and he can spell Votto and Frazier in the dog days and would be decent insurance if either were to get hurt.

However, it would make no sense to start him over Frazier, unless Frazier is hurt.

Otherwise, you are starting from scratch and need to find a third baseman in 2014, and unless the payroll is increased by ten million--it is not going to happen.

Don Cameron
Give Peace a chance

Rantly
05-29-2013, 04:53 PM
I enjoy watching Bronson pitch and he's done such a great job for the Reds, I would really like to see him play out the season with the reds and reach post-season one more time, he's earned it as part of the Reds resurgence.