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View Full Version : Would you sign Choo if given a chance



Johnny Fan
05-13-2013, 12:59 PM
I was listening to WLW this past weekend and on the post game show Doc Rogers make the statement that in no way would he ink Choo to a deal at this point no matter what.

For me it would be based on the deal his agent Boras offered. I wouldn't go for anything over 5 years at most, would rather have a 4 year deal. I think at his age you can get another 4 high quality years out of him before decline starts. I would be willing to offer Choo 4 years at $60 million with a team option on a 5th year. I think there might be a few teams out there that might go over that in years but not in per year dollars.

If Boras told you as Reds GM you had till the end of June to make up your mind and that it would take $13-15 million per year would you take his offer or pass and hope Hamilton learns alot over the rest of this season in AAA?

dwyerbrg
05-13-2013, 01:24 PM
Did Doc give any reason for that?

With that kind of deadline, I'm not so sure. I'd say it's not necessarily a signing you make because you're worried about Hamilton, so much as a deal you make when you're worried about Ludwick being able to come back. I can make arguments for and against making the decision in June...I'd be more comfortable with a July decision.

Johnny Fan
05-13-2013, 01:35 PM
Did Doc give any reason for that?

With that kind of deadline, I'm not so sure. I'd say it's not necessarily a signing you make because you're worried about Hamilton, so much as a deal you make when you're worried about Ludwick being able to come back. I can make arguments for and against making the decision in June...I'd be more comfortable with a July decision.

Because this team won 90+ games with Stubbs in CF and with Choo the Reds have only won about 20+, he doesn't see Choo as being that important to the team overall, especially with what he feels it would cost to keep him.

dwyerbrg
05-13-2013, 01:41 PM
I believe that the Reds won 90+ games in spite of Stubbs, not because of him.

Conversely, I believe that the Reds have won 20+ games this season, at least in part, because of Choo, so I'd have to say he's wrong about that reasoning.

That said, where do you come down on extending Choo?

qotsa04
05-13-2013, 01:43 PM
You've got to be kidding me? 4 years at $60 million? $13-15 million per year?
Consider: Since 2008, Choo ranks third with a 137 OPS+ among major leaguers with at least 600 games played in the outfield, according to research through Baseball-Reference.com. The only players ahead of him are Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday, each of whom has a contract worth more than $100 million.
Look at Carl Crawford(7 yrs/$142M) or Jayson Werth(7 yrs/$126M) in recent years.

Johnny Fan
05-13-2013, 01:51 PM
You've got to be kidding me? 4 years at $60 million? $13-15 million per year?
Consider: Since 2008, Choo ranks third with a 137 OPS+ among major leaguers with at least 600 games played in the outfield, according to research through Baseball-Reference.com. The only players ahead of him are Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday, each of whom has a contract worth more than $100 million.
Look at Carl Crawford(7 yrs/$142M) or Jayson Werth(7 yrs/$126M) in recent years.

I am willing to bet someone will pay him that, he is making almost 8 million now, if his numbers stay anywhere close to what they are now teams will sign him for that amount without blinking...

REDREAD
05-13-2013, 03:54 PM
If Boras told you as Reds GM you had till the end of June to make up your mind and that it would take $13-15 million per year would you take his offer or pass and hope Hamilton learns alot over the rest of this season in AAA?

Yes, I would sign him at 15 million/year for 4 years without even blinking.
I would make whatever trades needed to fit him into the budget.
Choo is a legitimate superstar. If you can retain a guy like that, you do it (Move other players if necessary).

My guess is that Boras wants 20+ million/year for more than 4 years though.
No matter what the Reds offer at this point, Boras isn't going to agree. Not his style. He's going to have Choo test FA, as he should.. Choo might be the most desirable position player on the market this winter.

Vottomatic
05-13-2013, 04:20 PM
I'd would do 4 yrs/$60M in a heartbeat. The problem is, Choo/Boras won't.

Guys like Holliday and others signed their big contracts around age 29 or 30. Choo turns 31 in July.

I'm thinking 6 yrs/$100M. The problem then arises as to how do you sign your starting rotation?

Johnny Fan
05-13-2013, 05:01 PM
I'd would do 4 yrs/$60M in a heartbeat. The problem is, Choo/Boras won't.

Guys like Holliday and others signed their big contracts around age 29 or 30. Choo turns 31 in July.

I'm thinking 6 yrs/$100M. The problem then arises as to how do you sign your starting rotation?

to me 6 years is to much, and while I like Choo, I just don't see him as a $20 million dollar guy. I think a double in pay is fair, he is around the 7 million mark now...

qotsa04
05-14-2013, 02:59 AM
Mets already eyeing Choo?
BARRY MCBRIDE |
Published: Friday, May 10, 2013 | 0 Comments
Indians and Reds fans have a lot to be excited about in 2013, with both clubs appearing to be solid playoff contenders, both in second place in their divisions with an eye on first.

In New York, however, Mets fans are already thinking of next year, with the club a moribund 14-17 and already 5.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves.

Part of the issue with the Mets is their outfield, one of the worst in MLB. All of which has the New York Daily News saying that the Mets are already looking hungrily at Reds outfield Shin-Soo Choo:

And so you already hear names that would make sense as Mets next season. One, in particular, Ive heard multiple times this week is Shin-Soo Choo, the Reds center fielder and leadoff hitter, who will be one of the more attractive free-agent outfielders available next winter.

Id bet on him being a Met next season, one major league exec with past ties to GM Sandy Alderson said on Thursday. Hes a high on-base percentage guy, which is what Sandy wants, and hes a really good hitter.

Goose1701
05-14-2013, 05:21 AM
Assuming the price isn't absurd(it may well be) then signing Choo the left fielder long term is the right move. Signing Choo the center fielder probably isn't.

Old school 1983
05-14-2013, 07:35 AM
It depends on what the circumstances are and the long term plans of the club. If they are not planning on trading for anyone then yes. I'd sign him move him to left when Billy is ready and go if they are going to try to acquire a third baseman it still leaves the option open to put choo in left and billy in center but there would probably have to be a consideration of would the reds be better long term if the money was used to sign the newly acquired player and have billy in center. If the reds acquire a big name left fielder like Stanton, and do not trade Billy to do so, then I see no reason to resign choo. He's be playing center long term which honestly is not in the best interest of the club plus in the long run the team would probably be better off with Stanton and billy. Put your money there. Also another consideration would be resigning latos and bailey. If I had to choose between those two and choo, I pick the pitchers.

So pretty much while choo has been awesome this year there are a ton of factors that would go into whether or not I resign him. I don't think I'd do it right now. I'd wait to see what happens at the deadline.

HokieRed
05-14-2013, 08:04 AM
That the Mets are thinking about signing him should give us pause. I think it depends on Hamilton and maybe even on Henry Rodriguez. If you think Hamilton is your CF for next year and beyond, then Choo has to play left (unless you trade Bruce, perhaps not an unthinkable move). But you're already paying Ludwick pretty substantially for next year. If HRod is ready to go, too, you've got a decent backup plan for LF: i.e. HRod to 3rd, at least part of the time, and Frazier to left if Ludwick goes down or underperforms. Hamilton and HRod will also give you the left-handed bats you need. Personally I hope this is what happens and that we save the money on Choo to tie up as much of the starting rotation as we can, because that's what has improved this team.

Vottomatic
05-14-2013, 10:02 AM
Assuming the price isn't absurd(it may well be) then signing Choo the left fielder long term is the right move. Signing Choo the center fielder probably isn't.

I believe this could be the key point in whether Choo even considers signing long term with the Reds.

What if he likes it here and would give the Reds a discount and sign here. BUT...........only if he gets to play a corner OF position? Clearly he doesn't like playing CF. And as much as most of us like Choo, we don't prefer him in CF anyway.

Reds either need to know if Hamilton will be ready and Choo can move over. Or trade for a CFer. Or let Choo walk in free agency.

Goose1701
05-14-2013, 08:17 PM
I believe this could be the key point in whether Choo even considers signing long term with the Reds.

What if he likes it here and would give the Reds a discount and sign here. BUT...........only if he gets to play a corner OF position? Clearly he doesn't like playing CF. And as much as most of us like Choo, we don't prefer him in CF anyway.

Reds either need to know if Hamilton will be ready and Choo can move over. Or trade for a CFer. Or let Choo walk in free agency.

Right. The other problem is that Ludwick is under contract for next year. If the Reds are looking to sign Choo, they're gonna need to trade either Ludwick or Bruce, and I'd much rather they trade Ludwick. This is all assuming Hamilton is ready to play the OF at the major league level in 2014 of course.

TitosLoveChild
05-15-2013, 01:53 AM
to me 6 years is to much, and while I like Choo, I just don't see him as a $20 million dollar guy. I think a double in pay is fair, he is around the 7 million mark now...

The contracts that the star players are signing right now, clubs are adding years knowing full well they will be overplaying in the downside of their careers. That hasn't been a deterrent. The market has changed, the new tv deals have altered the game.

Boras would be an idiot to negotiate before free agency. He can always come back and sign with Cincinnati if Choo insists, but why would they limit themselves. He's played some 10 years being traded from one place to another with losing teams. This is his first time being able to dictate where he wants to play. I doubt they will easily sign it away.

Maybe we could have signed him long term when we traded for him. Maybe we could have gotten 5 for 80. Now the time has probably passed. He seems back in his 2008-10 form. Barring injury or complete collapse he's going to get 100/120+ somewhere.

Rantly
05-15-2013, 11:32 AM
I say no to a long term contract. I like him now, but who doesn't at this point?, he has done everything asked of him so far. Let's see if he continues all year...if he does, he will want to much money to make sense IMO.

BungleBengals
05-15-2013, 11:49 AM
Why not try to extend him now before his value rises too high? I know it is a long shot because it is evident at this point in the season that he will probably be a top FA in the offseason. But we did extend Bruce before his value was too high.

RedTeamGo!
05-15-2013, 01:09 PM
Why not try to extend him now before his value rises too high? I know it is a long shot because it is evident at this point in the season that he will probably be a top FA in the offseason. But we did extend Bruce before his value was too high.

Bruce was a homegrown talent at a younger age with an agent not named Scott Boras.

This is going to be Choo's last big payday of his career. he would be crazy not to hit the open market and attempt to get as big of a contract as possible. It is the same exact thing every one of us would do. I have been a huge Reds fan my entire life and if I were in Choo's shoes I would hit free agency and sign to the highest bidder even if it were the Cardinals or Cubs.

TitosLoveChild
05-15-2013, 01:26 PM
Why not try to extend him now before his value rises too high? I know it is a long shot because it is evident at this point in the season that he will probably be a top FA in the offseason. But we did extend Bruce before his value was too high.

Jay Bruce was club controlled for 4 more years when he signed the 6 year contract. The Reds basically bought out 2 years of free agency for what will be a cheaper price in exchange for a raise and guarantee security through that time. Bruce took it.

Choo is already in his free agency year. The situations of Bruce and Choo are not similar.

Old school 1983
05-15-2013, 01:27 PM
It'll depend on how the rest of this year shakes out and who if anyone is acquired at the deadline. If there is nothing major changed and Hamilton looks ready, then maybe try to sign him to play left. If the reds get an impact bat and Hamilton stays and is ready let choo walk and use the pick gained to reup the farm.

buffalo
05-15-2013, 04:30 PM
depended on the cost. Getting draft compensation isn't a bad alternative if the cost is too high.

Mastodon
05-15-2013, 10:32 PM
I would sign him, the math seems impossible to work out though based on what he will most likely command as a salary.

Vottomatic
05-15-2013, 10:39 PM
I don't see how you don't sign him.

Billy Hamilton or Choo?

No-brainer.

But we need a CFer, because Choo won't sign to play CF.

Falcon7
05-16-2013, 12:06 AM
He's only a year and 2 months older than Votto, of course the Reds are paying him way too much for way too long, counting this year 11 more years. They just won't have enough $$$$ to go around.

Dwarftree
05-16-2013, 05:18 AM
This is going to be Choo's last big payday of his career. he would be crazy not to hit the open market and attempt to get as big of a contract as possible. It is the same exact thing every one of us would do.

This! Unfortunately ... If Choo-Choo continues to ramp it up for the entire season as he has done so far i dont think there is a chance the Reds will be able to afford him.

Beltway
05-16-2013, 08:02 AM
I advocate letting Choo walk because he'll be too expensive. Next year, bring up Hamilton to play CF and go after Beltran (who will be cheaper, but put up similar or possibly better numbers when healthy).

Beltway
05-16-2013, 08:07 AM
I think he'll be too expensive because he would fill a hole for both the Rangers and Red Sox, along with his agent being Scott Boras.

RedlegJake
05-16-2013, 12:00 PM
Several teams will want Choo...Mets Rangers Bosox Yanks...I don't think the Reds have even a glimmer of a chance. Add Boras and its even less likely.

SpiritofStLouis
05-16-2013, 12:08 PM
I'd say 3 years with an option would work.

Old school 1983
05-16-2013, 12:23 PM
Several teams will want Choo...Mets Rangers Bosox Yanks...I don't think the Reds have even a glimmer of a chance. Add Boras and its even less likely.

I'm seeing things that way too. The only chance I could see the reds having is if they win it all and choo loves playing here so much he says he wants to come back. Seeing that he is a boras client he will probably be highly advised to go for the cash in a large market. If that's the case billy to center and collect the draft pick.

CardsFanBob
05-17-2013, 01:03 PM
If he finishes the incredible season he's having, Boras is going to ask for $20M per for, and I"m guessing here, at least 6 years.

Alpha Zero
05-17-2013, 02:04 PM
Earlier in the year, I thought something like a 4 year, $60MM deal would get it done, but I think if he sustains anything close to this level of excellence, Choo will approach a $100MM deal and will price himself out of a possible return to Cincy.

SYCMiniBus
05-21-2013, 07:55 PM
It isn't just about Choo, it is about the entire team. Bailey becomes a free agent after the 2014 season and then Latos becomes one after the 2015 season, and guess what 2016 is when Joey Votto starts becoming real expensive at 20 mil per year with Brandon Phillips getting 13 million in 2016 as well.

Consider that Cueto will need to be re-signed in 2016 as well, and right now he has a ridiculously team friendly contract, and there is simply no way you can keep the core of the team together if you sign Choo long term.

The reality is while it sounds good to say "Sign Choo", practically speaking it doesn't make a ton of sense. You can only be paying mid 30's guys so much money and Votto/Phillips are eating that up right now, paying Choo another 17 mil at 35 with the 32 already committed to those two, PLUS the huge raises due to the top of your rotation at the same time is how you hamstring a payroll/roster.

This is why you have a farm system. You can't re-sign everyone long term. As it is they can likely only sign 2 of the Bailey/Cueto/Latos trio long term, and not sure if you have looked, Mike Leake is becoming a solid No. 3 starter, and look how much those guys make in free agency as well.

Sometimes you have to let guys go, take the draft pick, and say "next man up". With Choo that means Billy Hamilton, when Ludwick comes up maybe that means Jesse Winker or Donald Lutz or whoever it might be. That is just how baseball works, can't play fantasy ball and just re-sign every guy looking short term without considering the long term.

redsfanmia
05-21-2013, 07:59 PM
Almost a zero chance Choo resigns with the Reds, I will enjoy him while he is here but know he is gone

Goose1701
05-21-2013, 10:44 PM
It isn't just about Choo, it is about the entire team. Bailey becomes a free agent after the 2014 season and then Latos becomes one after the 2015 season, and guess what 2016 is when Joey Votto starts becoming real expensive at 20 mil per year with Brandon Phillips getting 13 million in 2016 as well.

Consider that Cueto will need to be re-signed in 2016 as well, and right now he has a ridiculously team friendly contract, and there is simply no way you can keep the core of the team together if you sign Choo long term.

The reality is while it sounds good to say "Sign Choo", practically speaking it doesn't make a ton of sense. You can only be paying mid 30's guys so much money and Votto/Phillips are eating that up right now, paying Choo another 17 mil at 35 with the 32 already committed to those two, PLUS the huge raises due to the top of your rotation at the same time is how you hamstring a payroll/roster.

This is why you have a farm system. You can't re-sign everyone long term. As it is they can likely only sign 2 of the Bailey/Cueto/Latos trio long term, and not sure if you have looked, Mike Leake is becoming a solid No. 3 starter, and look how much those guys make in free agency as well.

Sometimes you have to let guys go, take the draft pick, and say "next man up". With Choo that means Billy Hamilton, when Ludwick comes up maybe that means Jesse Winker or Donald Lutz or whoever it might be. That is just how baseball works, can't play fantasy ball and just re-sign every guy looking short term without considering the long term.

Excellent points.

Beltway
05-22-2013, 12:43 AM
I'd say 3 years with an option would work.
There's no way Choo signs just a 3-year contract. He's going to get at least 4, probably closer to 6 years. If I had to guess right now, I'd say he gets something like 6 years/$105 million. Someone is going to give it to him.

markymark69
05-22-2013, 04:19 PM
Would love to do it, but it's unlikely that the Reds could compete financially on this one. Perhaps if they don't try to sign Arroyo back they could have a decent shot, but with the kind of season Choo is having and with Boras as his agent, he can ask for the moon and most likely will get it.

maestrohound
06-05-2013, 06:57 PM
I wouldn't mind one bit to see him go. April for him was a special case of overachieving. No way he'll have another month like that often. He's not hitting well now, and that, to me, seems like a norm for him. He's getting on base because he gets hit by pitch often - but wouldn't that make you worry, after seeing BP getting hit by pitch into DL?? Too much of a risk right there! I'd take someone like Aoki of Brewers any day of the week over Choo, hands down. Much cheaper and more consistent.

Maker_84
06-05-2013, 11:32 PM
choo is really tanking right now offensively

Pacman Fever
06-06-2013, 03:08 AM
choo is really tanking right now offensively

Thus, it might be a perfect time to sign him up :D

qotsa04
06-06-2013, 05:43 AM
He's getting on base because he gets hit by pitch often? No.
He also walks a lot. He and Votto are only players in MLB who have 40+ walks.
Prince Fielder and Justin Upton rank third with 35 walks.

And Aoki over Choo? Are you serious?
Aoki: .298 .365 .391 .757 9 doubles 4 homers 18 walks
Choo: .272 .431 .484 .915 13 doubles 1 triples 10 homers 42 walks

SporkLover
06-06-2013, 08:01 AM
I think given the right conditions, Reds would be crazy not to sign Choo. However, given his season thus far, I doubt he gives any discount, and the Reds have many important players reaching the end of their contracts very soon... Locking in Choo might tie their hands.

Eric from NC
06-06-2013, 08:20 PM
One good thing for the Reds, is that both Choo and Ellsbury will be free agents. I would assume that there would be a limited market for center field free agents especially when Bourne was on the market this year. Also, some of these stats people would say that you should notto give big money to a CF who is likely to hit under 25 hr a season.

It still will be a lot of money. The worst thing is that Boras tends to hold out for an offer until the last second. I'm not sure the Reds would want to just roll the dice past the winter meetings on a center fielder.

SporkLover
06-06-2013, 11:13 PM
One good thing for the Reds, is that both Choo and Ellsbury will be free agents. I would assume that there would be a limited market for center field free agents especially when Bourne was on the market this year. Also, some of these stats people would say that you should notto give big money to a CF who is likely to hit under 25 hr a season.

It still will be a lot of money. The worst thing is that Boras tends to hold out for an offer until the last second. I'm not sure the Reds would want to just roll the dice past the winter meetings on a center fielder.

One thing that will hurt Choo is the draft compensation. Unless someone is hurting for a CF, the draft compensation rules will lower his value as it did for Bourne. It wasn't that Bourne necessarily ran into a dry market, it was that not many teams are willing to pay big $$$$ and give up their first round pick. Same thing killed Lohse. Best thing for the Reds is to make a qualifying offer and be glad with their draft compensation.

jhu1321
06-07-2013, 09:03 AM
One good thing for the Reds, is that both Choo and Ellsbury will be free agents. I would assume that there would be a limited market for center field free agents especially when Bourne was on the market this year. Also, some of these stats people would say that you should notto give big money to a CF who is likely to hit under 25 hr a season.

It still will be a lot of money. The worst thing is that Boras tends to hold out for an offer until the last second. I'm not sure the Reds would want to just roll the dice past the winter meetings on a center fielder.

Choo will enter the market as a corner outfielder.

Jamz
06-07-2013, 11:39 AM
I'd like to sign Ellsbury to be honest, as he's having a down year. With the addition of Ervin to our prospect pool I think we may be able to deal Hamilton for an star infielder (Lindor maybe? Probably not...)

PERHitKing
06-07-2013, 12:18 PM
If I were GM I would make a 2year offer with an option at the current salary. I know Boras and Choo will reject it out of hand, they are looking for the big bucks and a long term deal 50-60 mil for 5-6 years. With the Reds small market, and wanting to hang on to players like Votto, Phillips, Latos, and others, this just ain't happening. I would pin my hopes on the likes of Robinson
Hamilton and Lutz; apparently management is thinking along these lines as they picked up Phillip Ervin, a center fielder, in the draft.

Jmiller21kg
06-10-2013, 09:20 PM
If Choo walks, I would like Dexter Fowler. Underrated player and will be cheaper than Ellsbury. I remember the Reds sniffing around about him last year.

Jmiller21kg
06-10-2013, 09:26 PM
I'd like to sign Ellsbury to be honest, as he's having a down year. With the addition of Ervin to our prospect pool I think we may be able to deal Hamilton for an star infielder (Lindor maybe? Probably not...)
Definitely think we can trade Hamilton with some of our pitching prospects for a really good player. Even a LF: CarGo? Alex Gordon?

maestrohound
06-18-2013, 11:51 PM
And Aoki over Choo? Are you serious?
Aoki: .298 .365 .391 .757 9 doubles 4 homers 18 walks
Choo: .272 .431 .484 .915 13 doubles 1 triples 10 homers 42 walks


Yes, I am serious.

One stat you did not list (through 66 games);

Strikeouts: Choo - 66, Aoki - 15

Aoki had struck out 55 times in all of last season (versus 150 by Choo).

Aoki's in his second year in the MLB and is still learning the game. His numbers in Japan would suggest he has considerable room to improve given time to get used to how things are done here. Choo's in his 10th year in the bigs and we pretty much know what he is/will be.

Salaries: Choo - $7,375,000, Aoki - $1,250,000

Not a typo.

Since the time you listed the stats, they are walking about the same for the last half month or so (7 more for Choo, 6 more for Aoki). OBP gap had closed by a little (.425/.369). Aoki still holds 20+ points lead on the batting average, which I feel like Reds may need more considering its struggles to score runs.

I'd say Aoki is at least comparable to Choo. At 1/6 the price tag, I would absolutely take Aoki over Choo.

SporkLover
06-19-2013, 11:15 PM
Yes, I am serious.

One stat you did not list (through 66 games);

Strikeouts: Choo - 66, Aoki - 15

Aoki had struck out 55 times in all of last season (versus 150 by Choo).

Aoki's in his second year in the MLB and is still learning the game. His numbers in Japan would suggest he has considerable room to improve given time to get used to how things are done here. Choo's in his 10th year in the bigs and we pretty much know what he is/will be.

Salaries: Choo - $7,375,000, Aoki - $1,250,000

Not a typo.

Since the time you listed the stats, they are walking about the same for the last half month or so (7 more for Choo, 6 more for Aoki). OBP gap had closed by a little (.425/.369). Aoki still holds 20+ points lead on the batting average, which I feel like Reds may need more considering its struggles to score runs.

I'd say Aoki is at least comparable to Choo. At 1/6 the price tag, I would absolutely take Aoki over Choo.

Solid logic. I'm not sure the Brewers will be letting that valuable piece of their team go.

holster10
06-19-2013, 11:21 PM
Let Choo go, he's good but not good enough to warrant the large $$$$ he'll fetch....