Phil Ervin

[Benihana]

Here we go...

The "experts" seem to love him. Both Sickels and Callis list him as one of their favorite players. The anchor on MLB Network said he was his absolute favorite player in this draft, comparing his defense to Denard Span and his swing to Andrew McCutcheon.

He is also a great athlete with phenomenal bat speed.

That all sounds great.

What scares me is his lack of any great tool - the fact that he is a very good "all-around" player. That gives me nightmares of Ryan LaMarre. I hope they're just that - nightmares, and not reality. I've also compared him to an OF version of Rickie Weeks. Hopefully he has better success.

[Drugs Delaney]

Here we go...

The "experts" seem to love him. Both Sickels and Callis list him as one of their favorite players. The anchor on MLB Network said he was his absolute favorite player in this draft, comparing his defense to Denard Span and his swing to Andrew McCutcheon.

He is also a great athlete with phenomenal bat speed.

That all sounds great.

What scares me is his lack of any great tool - the fact that he is a very good "all-around" player. That gives me nightmares of Ryan LaMarre. I hope they're just that - nightmares, and not reality. I've also compared him to an OF version of Rickie Weeks. Hopefully he has better success.

He sounds like he has a much higher ceiling than Lamarre. Potential plus power which is something I was hoping we would see. Not the most glowing scouting report here, but it does seem like it acknowledges his upside:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/16/3961766/2013-mlb-draft-profile-phillip-ervin-of-samford

[jaydeebee21]

Here we go...

The "experts" seem to love him. Both Sickels and Callis list him as one of their favorite players. The anchor on MLB Network said he was his absolute favorite player in this draft, comparing his defense to Denard Span and his swing to Andrew McCutcheon.

He is also a great athlete with phenomenal bat speed.

That all sounds great.

What scares me is his lack of any great tool - the fact that he is a very good "all-around" player. That gives me nightmares of Ryan LaMarre. I hope they're just that - nightmares, and not reality. I've also compared him to an OF version of Rickie Weeks. Hopefully he has better success.

I would take an OF version of Weeks, until the past 2 years, Weeks has been a good bet when healthy to have a .350+ OBP with decent power and put up between 09 and 11 an OPS of .800+

You combine that with at least a decent defense in CF and its a very valuable player.

[TOBTTReds]

I'd like to see Phillip Ervin fall to us. Cape MVP, athletic college OF'er. BA has him as the 3rd best pure hitter in college.

http://samfordsports.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=3793

I'm happy!

[Billy Hamilton's Legs]

one thing i've learned is to trust the reds scouting department. i have no reason to see why this pick would change that

[Benihana]

Someone else mentioned Kirby Puckett as a comp. I think that sounds pretty good.

[malcontent]

I'm happy!
So am I.

[lollipopcurve]

I've also compared him to an OF version of Rickie Weeks.

Weeks is a terrible defender. Ervin can play CF. Poor comp there.

His swing does compare well to Weeks' though.

[Vottomatic]

Someone else mentioned Kirby Puckett as a comp. I think that sounds pretty good.

I'll take that. :thumbup:

[Benihana]

Weeks is a terrible defender. Ervin can play CF. Poor comp there.

His swing does compare well to Weeks' though.

I was referring more to his swing/bat speed, athleticism, power/speed combo, body type, and pedigree.

It's also unclear whether or not Ervin can stay in CF. And it's possible Weeks would be at least as good as a defensive CF as Ervin, if in fact he played there.

I think "poor comp" is a little aggressive.

[Benihana]

Will be interesting to see if Ervin starts in Billings or Dayton.

A Dayton OF of Winker - Ervin - Gelalich would be pretty fun to watch and follow.

[The DARK]

Reminds me a bit of Dave Sappelt. Both are the shorter side, but still generate pop with quick bat speed and have a solid all-around game. Ervin looks like he has a better arm and more natural power, so I'm hopeful that he turns out better.

[UCBrownsfan]

He sounds like he has a much higher ceiling than Lamarre. Potential plus power which is something I was hoping we would see. Not the most glowing scouting report here, but it does seem like it acknowledges his upside:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/16/3961766/2013-mlb-draft-profile-phillip-ervin-of-samford


That was written before this season

[scott91575]

The guy hit 11 home runs with a wood bat in the Cape Cod league (38 games). He definitely has some power.

[texasdave]

http://baseballdraftreport.com/2013/05/01/phillip-ervin/

[Benihana]

Thought this bit from BA was interesting:


WHERE HE FITS: After Billy Hamilton, Ervin will rank as the system’s top outfielder, as his overall tools package is greater than Jesse Winker’s corner outfield profile.

Not sure I agree at this point, but that's an interesting observation.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2013-mlb-draft-first-round-analysis/

[nate1213]

Thought this bit from BA was interesting:



Not sure I agree at this point, but that's an interesting observation.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2013-mlb-draft-first-round-analysis/

That's interesting...

[Benihana]

Ervin comps include:

Rickie Weeks (bat speed, speed/power combo, pedigree)
Kirby Puckett (all around game, physique)
Denard Span (defensive approach)
Andrew McCutcheon (similar swing)
Shin Soo-Choo (right-handed version)
Mike Cameron (poor man's version)

[Rojo]

The new buzzword is "twitchy".

[WrongVerb]

I think if he was that close to Kirby Puckett he'd have gone higher in the draft. Such as it is, I'll take Ron Gant or Reggie Sanders like production.

[redsmetz]

Here's a blogpost from back in February which also includes some video clips

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/2/22/4006808/2013-mlb-draft-profile-phillip-ervin-of-samford-university

[redsmetz]

And another from a Mets fan's site

http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2013/05/mets-draft-target-of-phillip-ervin.html

[redsmetz]

Here's Doug's little blurb on Ervin in a review of possible draftees

http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/05/28/2013-draft-scouting-reports-part-one/

[MikeS21]

Just a thought: Could Ervin be Jay Bruce's eventual successor in RF?

Jay Bruce is getting into his big money years, and I'm not convinced the Reds are getting what they thought they were paying for.

[lollipopcurve]

Reminds me a bit of Dave Sappelt. Both are the shorter side, but still generate pop with quick bat speed and have a solid all-around game. Ervin looks like he has a better arm and more natural power, so I'm hopeful that he turns out better.

Interesting comp there. Both short RH hitters with quick, short swings. Both have some speed (though Sappelt has poor instincts, and it seems Ervin's are good). Both can play multiple OF spots.

Important differences are there, as noted. Agree on all counts.

[mdccclxix]

I don't see the Sappelt comp as much mainly because Ervin's arms look a bit longer to me. He's also a different runner, with much less effort.

[lollipopcurve]

It's also unclear whether or not Ervin can stay in CF. And it's possible Weeks would be at least as good as a defensive CF as Ervin, if in fact he played there.

I think "poor comp" is a little aggressive.

Reds consider Ervin a CF for now. We shouldn't assume he'll play himself off the spot, at least not yet. I think it's safe to say he's a solid defender. Weeks could never play CF. Zero arm. Remember, he was a second baseman even in college. At Southern University. Just a brutal defender.

Sorry for the aggressive tone -- not meant that way.

[traderumor]

Just a thought: Could Ervin be Jay Bruce's eventual successor in RF?

Jay Bruce is getting into his big money years, and I'm not convinced the Reds are getting what they thought they were paying for.

The Reds don't seem to draft that way, esp. in the 1st round, which is a good thing considering the crap shoot that is the draft. The Reds seem to be primarily using best available, esp. in the 1st round, which has been working pretty well to secure both major league talent and used as trade currency. Their run on 1st round picks has been pretty amazing. Homer, Bruce, Stubbs, Alonso, Mes, Frazier, Boxberger, Leake, Grandal. The only one that has not made it to the show is Lotzkar, who was a supplemental 1st round. I'd be curious how that run stacks up against other clubs, but that is an impressive record and is a good return on the investment of a 1st round pick. Let's hope Ervin keeps the run going.

[Blitz Dorsey]

The guy hit 11 home runs with a wood bat in the Cape Cod league (38 games). He definitely has some power.

And was the MVP of said league, which is extremely impressive.

[Steve4192]

I'm surprised no one has busted out a Jim Wynn comparison. Right-handed fireplug of a CF with plus power, plus speed and a solid understanding of the strikezone. If Ervin can deliver anything remotely like the Toy Cannon's career, I will be a happy camper.

[Pacman Fever]

Phillip Ervin may not be a center fielder in the big leagues, as his speed is just average and could limit his range. But he has good arm strength and could move to right field. His calling card is what he does with the lumber, showcasing a very good swing with surprising pop for a 5'11" player.

Pro Comparison: Ron Gant

[Tom Servo]

I'm awfully excited to see Ervin and Winker rise thru the ranks in the next few years.

[11larkin11]

IIRC, mlb.com had his speed as a current 8, so I'm not sure about "just average" speed.

[Benihana]

It would be so fun to watch an OF of Winker - Ervin - Gelalich rise together through the system. Pretty rare to see three first round picks in the same minor league OF.

Winker and Ervin could surely push each other in a healthy way, competing for an open OF spot next to Bruce and Hamilton/Choo.

[Benihana]

Pretty damning report from ESPN's Jason Churchill:


27. Cincinnati Reds: Phil Ervin | OF, Samford




Ervin is a high probability outfielder who isn't likely to stick in center field. He likely represents an under-slot pick that could allow the club to spend big at No. 38, the second-to-last pick in the first competitive balance round.

The Reds do need outfielders looking forward, as Shin-Soo Choo is a free agent following the 2013 season, but Ervin is no guarantee to serve as a regular down the line. -- Churchill

Makes the Reds draft sound horrible considering they never drafted the overslot guy to complement. Not saying I necessarily agree with his analysis of Ervin, but I wouldn't ignore it either. It does reinforce my annoyance at skipping over Denney, Wilson and Green to take a college reliever though.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think Ervin was a fine pick. He was considered a late first round talent anyhow. I don't think it was a reach. I kind of preferred Kaminsky, but oh well.

The money thing though is interesting. But maybe they'll take some guys in the later rounds that are considered and sign them over slot. Knowing that, it makes you wish the Reds had gone for a ballsier pick in the comp round.

[texasdave]

Ervin was born in the baseball hotbed that is Yukon, Alaska.

[Steve4192]

Pretty damning report from ESPN's Jason Churchill:


Pretty terrible analysis by Churchill IMO.

For one, Ervin went about where most scouting services expected him to go. He wasn't an under-slot selection.

Second, I would agree he is a 'high probability' pick, but he's also a guy with pretty darn solid upside based on the comps that are being made (Puckett, McCutcheon, Spann).

Third, Churchill is the first guy I have heard describe him as 'not likely' to stick in CF. The worst I have seen is that it is 'questionable' whether he can stick there, and there are plenty of scouts who think there is a reasonable chance he can handle CF duties.

Lastly, of course he is not a 'guarantee' to serve as a regular down the line. No one in the entire draft is guaranteed to be a success. Number one picks flop on occasion, top ten picks flop pretty regularly, guys drafted after the top ten flop more often than not. Damning a guy picked in the mid 20s because he is not 'guaranteed' to succeed is just silly.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I'm going to put this on the record right now: I think we got one hell of a steal with Ervin. Being the MVP of the Cape Cod League (where they use wooden bats) is absolutely huge. I'll be shocked if Ervin isn't in the Reds' plans by 2015. If not to begin the 2015 season, then certainly by midseason at the latest. I bet he rises through the ranks relatively quick.

Picking at the end of the first round, I don't think we could have done any better than this. It's also going to be fun to see him and Robert Stephenson (also a No. 27 overall pick) likely make their Reds' debuts around the same time.

Simply put, I love the Ervin pick. Not crazy about some of our other early picks (although I loved the Armstrong pick in the third round) but Ervin was a great pick IMO.

[Edd Roush]

I'm going to put this on the record right now: I think we got one hell of a steal with Ervin. Being the MVP of the Cape Cod League (where they use wooden bats) is absolutely huge. I'll be shocked if Ervin isn't in the Reds' plans by 2015. If not to begin the 2015 season, then certainly by midseason at the latest. I bet he rises through the ranks relatively quick.

Picking at the end of the first round, I don't think we could have done any better than this. It's also going to be fun to see him and Robert Stephenson (also a No. 27 overall pick) likely make their Reds' debuts around the same time.

Simply put, I love the Ervin pick. Not crazy about some of our other early picks (although I loved the Armstrong pick in the third round) but Ervin was a great pick IMO.

Blitz, I really hope you are right. Let's hope he falls closer to the Andrew McCutchen comp than he does the Dave Sappelt comp. Either way, I hope we start him in Dayton and bump up Winker. Let's challenge our hitters and give Winker or Ervin a chance to be ready for the beginning of the 2015 season when Ludwick's contract is up.

[Benihana]

I wonder if Jackie Bradley Jr. is a fair comp for Ervin

[Gallen5862]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2013-mlb-draft-first-round-analysis/

27. CINCINNATI REDS3ds_reds83
PICK VALUE: $1,812,400

PHILLIP ERVIN, OF, SAMFORD (@Mr_MagicErvin)
Area Scout: Ben Jones

PICK ANALYSIS: Ervin gives the Reds a steal at 27 as a quick-twitch center fielder.

SCOUTING REPORT: Ervin wasn’t drafted out of high school, in part due to tearing a knee ligament as a football player. He has dealt with a less-serious injury this spring, a sprained left ankle. The problem pushed him to left field for a time and clouded some teams’ evaluations of whether he can stay in center field. For scouts that believe he can, Ervin presents one of the surest bets among college outfielders in the draft class. Ervin lacks the size and physicality of the likes of Stanford’s Austin Wilson or Fresno State’s Aaron Judge, but that’s an asset for him. He’s shorter at 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, has fewer holes in his swing, better hitting ability and above-average raw power thanks to his compact, strong swing. Ervin is a plus runner at his best, but scouts are mixed on his center-field ability. Those who like him see him as a solid-average center fielder early in his career and believe his speed plays better in the field than on the bases. He has enough arm strength to have pitched occasionally for Samford and could slide to right field eventually. Ervin’s blue-collar makeup and quiet confidence further endears him to scouts. Despite improved performance as a junior—he already had a career-high 11 homers and 31 walks—Ervin was thought to be sliding out of the first round, due in part to his ankle injury.

WHERE HE FITS: After Billy Hamilton, Ervin will rank as the system’s top outfielder, as his overall tools package is greater than Jesse Winker’s corner outfield profile.

[TOBTTReds]

Here are some interesting Cape single season HR comparisons (this is the least mathematical comp I've ever done):

2012
Ervin - 11 HR while batting .323

2005
Longoria - 8 (league leader)
T. Frazier - 5

2006
Justin Smoak - 11 (leader)
Matt Wieters - 8

2007
Gordon Beckham - 9 (leader)
Y. Alonso - 4 (.338 avg was 3rd in league)

2008
Chris Dominguez - 10 (leader)
No other noteworthy

2009
Kyle Roller - 10 (leader)
Jedd Gyorko - 5

[dougdirt]

Here are some interesting Cape single season HR comparisons (this is the least mathematical comp I've ever done):

2012
Ervin - 11 HR while batting .323

2005
Longoria - 8 (league leader)
T. Frazier - 5

2006
Justin Smoak - 11 (leader)
Matt Wieters - 8

2007
Gordon Beckham - 9 (leader)
Y. Alonso - 4 (.338 avg was 3rd in league)

2008
Chris Dominguez - 10 (leader)
No other noteworthy

2009
Kyle Roller - 10 (leader)
Jedd Gyorko - 5

So he is going to turn into a bust like Justin Smoak? Great. Just great. :laugh:

I am a big fan of Ervin. LOVE LOVE LOVE the swing and athleticism.

[Boro_BG_Red]

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=mlb-draft&id=1008&src=desktop
Keith Law posted his opinion on the Reds draft. For those that don't have Insider, he thinks Ervin is a 4th outfielder in the big leagues. He feels his short but thick body type will force him to a corner position, where his offense won't play as well. Law also expects Lorenzen to learn a second pitch and move to the Bullpen. He was also intrigued by the selection of Chad Jones. Of course, I trust Buckley over Law. It's interesting to see the different opinions, however.

[757690]

If Law doesn't like the Reds draft, I love it even more. It's amazing this guy still had a job.

[edabbs44]

Phil Ervin sounds like a NASCAR driver.

[Tony Cloninger]

If Law doesn't like the Reds draft, I love it even more. It's amazing this guy still had a job.

Arrogance and Mel Kiper like knowledge of his subject. Good combo. :D

[19braves77]

He reminds me a lot of Micheal Choice out of the Oakland system.

[klw]

https://twitter.com/Mr_MagicErvin

Phillip Ervin ‏@Mr_MagicErvin 16h
@garpike28 probably not I'm flying out tomorrow


Phillip Ervin ‏@Mr_MagicErvin 17h
Went in Cincinnati locker room and met the players and first person I met was @DatDudeBP and he was clowning on me

[lollipopcurve]

He reminds me a lot of Micheal Choice out of the Oakland system.

I can see that to a degree. Although I believe Choice came out more as a power + patience prospect. Ervin with a better hit tool -- at least I hope so.

[bellhead]

Maybe he can play center maybe he can't, but riddle me this batman? If him and Billy are in the same outfield as it looks right now who is playing center?

[dougdirt]

Ervin has officially signed for slot money.

[nate1213]

Ervin has officially signed for slot money.

Do you see him going to Arizona or straight to Dayton?

[dougdirt]

Do you see him going to Arizona or straight to Dayton?

I expect him to go to Arizona for their little "camp" then head to Billings.

[bellhead]

When does Billings start up?

[dougdirt]

When does Billings start up?

10 days, I believe.


Also, Buckley was just on the radio here in Cincinnati. While he didn't mention anyone specifically, when asked about what players would do, he said they would go to Arizona, take a physical and get in some tune up work then go play either for Arizona or Billings. So, take that for what it is worth.

[mattfeet]

Doug - as a prospect, how would you compare/contrast Ervin to Hamilton? Call me crazy, but from what Im reading it seems that Ervin has better overall MLB potential while lacking *only* BH's speed. Thoughts?

-Matt

[bellhead]

10 days, I believe.


Also, Buckley was just on the radio here in Cincinnati. While he didn't mention anyone specifically, when asked about what players would do, he said they would go to Arizona, take a physical and get in some tune up work then go play either for Arizona or Billings. So, take that for what it is worth.

Smart guy signing quick, I think this insures he spends a split at Billings/Dayton if he gets it done, and then starts next year in Cali. I really like the knew signing slot system as the kids don't loose a year waiting on other guys around them to set a signing scale.

[dougdirt]

Doug - as a prospect, how would you compare/contrast Ervin to Hamilton? Call me crazy, but from what Im reading it seems that Ervin has better overall MLB potential while lacking *only* BH's speed. Thoughts?

-Matt

Tons more potential with the bat. Won't be the base runner (not many can be). Not the same kind of potential on defense either.

[Steve4192]

Doug - as a prospect, how would you compare/contrast Ervin to Hamilton? Call me crazy, but from what Im reading it seems that Ervin has better overall MLB potential while lacking *only* BH's speed. Thoughts?

-Matt

I disagree.

Most scouts seem to envision Ervin as a tweener. The consensus is that he's either a mediocre defensive CF with a good bat, or a good defensive corner OF with a mediocre bat. Billy is viewed as a potential game-changer, with the physical tools to be special with the glove in CF and to be the kind of weapon at the leadoff spot not seen since the 1980s.

Billy clearly is the bigger 'boom or bust' guy IMO. If he hits his ceiling, he could completely change the landscape of the game, but if he hits his floor, he'll never be more than a speedy bench OF. Ervin has a much smaller space between his ceiling and his floor, and his floor is likely to be a lot more useful than Hamilton's.

[nmculbreth]

Doug - as a prospect, how would you compare/contrast Ervin to Hamilton? Call me crazy, but from what Im reading it seems that Ervin has better overall MLB potential while lacking *only* BH's speed. Thoughts?

-Matt

It's probably an issue of semantics but I don't think it's fair to take Hamilton's best tool out of the equation and then try to make a comparison. Even if Hamilton's bat never develops to be more than fringe-average his speed pretty much guarantees that he is going to be a worth a couple wins based on base running and defense alone.

From what I've read Ervin seems like a nice, solid pick given where the Reds picked in the draft. That being said I don't think he has the same kind of ceiling as Hamilton and the lack of any standout carrying tool makes it hard for me to argue that he even has a higher floor.

[dunner13]

Hey Doug, from what I have read so far it seems like scouts are divided on Ervin. The ESPN guys (law,churchill, etc) seem to think he's a 4th OF at best, everyone else (including Jim Callis) think he has potential to be an all star CF is there any reason for there being such the big divide about his potential?

[Steve4192]

Hey Doug, from what I have read so far it seems like scouts are divided on Ervin. The ESPN guys (law,churchill, etc) seem to think he's a 4th OF at best, everyone else (including Jim Callis) think he has potential to be an all star CF is there any reason for there being such the big divide about his potential?

It all boils down to his position. The naysayers don't think he has enough glove to stick in CF, and not enough bat to play a corner. The guys who like him think he can stick in CF, where his bat definitely profiles as above-average.

[dougdirt]

Hey Doug, from what I have read so far it seems like scouts are divided on Ervin. The ESPN guys (law,churchill, etc) seem to think he's a 4th OF at best, everyone else (including Jim Callis) think he has potential to be an all star CF is there any reason for there being such the big divide about his potential?

The big divide is mostly because he played with an injured ankle this year. He wasn't as fast because of it and some wondered if he could play center. That is where most of the divide comes from. Some bought into the idea that he is just an average runner based on him playing with a sprained ankle this spring. Before he hurt his ankle, he was a plus runner.

[dunner13]

The big divide is mostly because he played with an injured ankle this year. He wasn't as fast because of it and some wondered if he could play center. That is where most of the divide comes from. Some bought into the idea that he is just an average runner based on him playing with a sprained ankle this spring. Before he hurt his ankle, he was a plus runner.

Great thanks, that makes sense.

[Always Red]

First Reds pick in years to sign that quickly and not keep us up until midnight some hot night in August.

I'm not sure if that's good or bad? :)

[Benihana]

First Reds pick in years to sign that quickly and not keep us up until midnight some hot night in August.

I'm not sure if that's good or bad? :)

IIRC Travieso signed pretty quickly last year?

I believe the last one to sign quickly before that was Mesoraco.

[JaxRed]

They gave him the max contract. Nothing to negotiate. Love this new CBA.

[Superdude]

Dayton right? With a half season to go, that's plenty of time to get some real development in. Don't really care to see him dominate the Pioneer League.

[dougdirt]

They gave him the max contract. Nothing to negotiate. Love this new CBA.

That isn't how it works. They could have given him $6M if they wanted to as long as they still found a way to sign the rest of their Top 10 round guys and stay under budget.

[REDREAD]

That isn't how it works. They could have given him $6M if they wanted to as long as they still found a way to sign the rest of their Top 10 round guys and stay under budget.

That's true. But the reality of the situation is that the new slotted system has been wonderful (at least for the clubs/fans, maybe the draftees don't like it).

The old way involved a lot of "negotiating" and kids signing at the 11th hour.

Now that rounds 1-10 are slotted, most kids seem to accept slot money. I really doubt we'll ever see another contract for a draft pick like Texeria got ever again.

The new draft system is going to be wonderful for competitive balance, IMO.

[RedsManRick]

The big divide is mostly because he played with an injured ankle this year. He wasn't as fast because of it and some wondered if he could play center. That is where most of the divide comes from. Some bought into the idea that he is just an average runner based on him playing with a sprained ankle this spring. Before he hurt his ankle, he was a plus runner.

Is it fair to assume he's going to return to his prior speed? At least in other sports, ankle injuries often mean the beginning of the end from a speed/quickness standpoint. Obviously he's young, but would it be fair to at least downgrade our expectations of the likelihood he reaches his speed/defensive potential?

In any event, good that he got himself signed and will be able to get in a summer of pro baseball this year.

[Mario-Rijo]

Guy sounds a lot like X. Paul

[Blitz Dorsey]

I still can't believe Ervin lasted until the 27th pick. First Stephenson two years ago and now Ervin.

I think it helps that Mr. Red wears the No. 27 and the MVP of the 1990 World Series donned the No. 27.

Ervin being the MVP of the Cape Cod league last year -- coupled with his good junior season at Samford despite playing injured -- should have made him at least a top-20 pick IMO. We were very fortunate. Great job by Buckley and his staff as usual. I fully expect to see Ervin in Cincinnati by the end of the 2015 season (and will be a fixture with the Reds from the start of 2016 on). Love that he and Winker are in the system as our top-two young outfielders.

Speaking of Winker, it's a matter of time before Ervin gets promoted to Dayton this year and joins Winker with the Dragons. I give him about another 2 weeks in Billings max. I look for Dayton to promote Arias to Bakersfield and then Ervin will get promoted to Dayton.

[bellhead]

I still can't believe Ervin lasted until the 27th pick. First Stephenson two years ago and now Ervin.

I think it helps that Mr. Red wears the No. 27 and the MVP of the 1990 World Series donned the No. 27.

Ervin being the MVP of the Cape Cod league last year -- coupled with his good junior season at Samford despite playing injured -- should have made him at least a top-20 pick IMO. We were very fortunate. Great job by Buckley and his staff as usual. I fully expect to see Ervin in Cincinnati by the end of the 2015 season (and will be a fixture with the Reds from the start of 2016 on). Love that he and Winker are in the system as our top-two young outfielders.

Speaking of Winker, it's a matter of time before Ervin gets promoted to Dayton this year and joins Winker with the Dragons. I give him about another 2 weeks in Billings max. I look for Dayton to promote Arias to Bakersfield and then Ervin will get promoted to Dayton.

like to see all 3 together at one time..

[Blitz Dorsey]

like to see all 3 together at one time..

Mr. Red, Jose Rijo and Robert Stephenson?

Oh, oh ... Arias, Ervin and Winker. I see ya.

:beerme:

[WrongVerb]

Guy sounds a lot like X. Paul

Sounds to me a lot like Ron Gant

[redsof72]

I look for Dayton to promote Arias to Bakersfield and then Ervin will get promoted to Dayton.

You are 50 percent correct.

[lollipopcurve]

You are 50 percent correct.

Hmmm. Ervin to Dayton, but who to Bakersfield? Maybe Gelalich....

[RedTeamGo!]

You are 50 percent correct.

What does this mean? Is Ervin being promoted?

[redsof72]

Arias to Bakersfield, Adam Matthews to Dayton. They must see some stuff with Ervin that they think needs a little work before he moves up, even though his numbers are not showing any deficiencies.

[lollipopcurve]

Arias to Bakersfield

Will be interesting to see how he adjusts. Huge move in terms of geography and playing atmosphere. He's been in the Midwest League for a while now.

[redsof72]

I am a little surprised because he was just finding his game and building some confidence. He struggles with off-speed. It may take them a little time in the Cal League for pitchers to get a book on him. As I have said, best raw tools in the Reds org. If he does well in Bakersfield, he will be a Reds top-10 prospect going into next season. I still need to see it for more than a half season before I am buying in.

[RedlegJake]

Arias could should thrive in the Cal League after perhaps a short adjustment period. I am so hoping he does...the system could use a good news boost like that.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Sounds to me a lot like Ron Gant

Yes, I would agree that sounds like a good comparison. I've heard another one that I would prefer even more: Kirby Puckett.

[Blitz Dorsey]

You are 50 percent correct.

I'll take it. I look at this as the Reds throwing Billings a bone and letting them see the first-round pick for a month or so. Then Ervin will be promoted to Dayton and play there for a month or so to finish out the season. Keeping all the affiliates happy. He'll probably begin next year at Bakersfield and will hopefully get called up to Pensacola next year.

Good to know Arias was promoted. That needed to happen.

[Jamz]

In 3 years will our outfield be Winker - Ervin - Bruce?

[Tom Servo]

In 3 years will our outfield be Winker - Ervin - Bruce?
Probably depends on whether Billy Hamilton learns to manage AAA/major league hitting.

[Steve4192]

Probably depends on whether Billy Hamilton learns to manage AAA/major league hitting.

... and whether Winker and Ervin can do the same.

Counting on all three of those guys panning out is a sucker's bet. Odds are at least one, possibly two, and maybe even all three will flop. When looking at prospects, the safe money is almost always on failure.

[dougdirt]

... and whether Winker and Ervin can do the same.

Counting on all three of those guys panning out is a sucker's bet. Odds are at least one, possibly two, and maybe even all three will flop. When looking at prospects, the safe money is almost always on failure.

I feel pretty confident that Ervin and Winker will hit enough to be Major Leaguers. I would say there is a better chance that one of those guys winds up being traded before I would say they flop.

[mth123]

I feel pretty confident that Ervin and Winker will hit enough to be Major Leaguers. I would say there is a better chance that one of those guys winds up being traded before I would say they flop.

I think the Reds OF picture looks pretty good. Lutz, Y-Rod, Arias and Silva might have a chance at decent careers as well.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Odds are at least one, possibly two, and maybe even all three will flop.

Really? What are these "odds" you speak of? Care to wager that one of Winker, Ervin or Hamilton will be solid Major League players? I just need one of them to make it and I win, right? Yep, sign me up for that. Any price.

And who's the "sucker" again?

[dougdirt]

And who's the "sucker" again?

I'm a sucker for anything involving Anna Kendrick.

[LoganBuck]

... and whether Winker and Ervin can do the same.

Counting on all three of those guys panning out is a sucker's bet. Odds are at least one, possibly two, and maybe even all three will flop. When looking at prospects, the safe money is aleays on failure.

Seriously every thread you post in.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fuFn9aGQKXQ/URv8-NXj4eI/AAAAAAAADC0/JZC3uKeI7t8/s1600/Debbie+Downer.png

[Steve4192]

Really? What are these "odds" you speak of? Care to wager that one of Winker, Ervin or Hamilton will be solid Major League players? I just need one of them to make it and I win, right? Yep, sign me up for that. Any price.

And who's the "sucker" again?

I said the odds are that one would fail. I mentioned two as a possibility, not a probability, and three as an unlikely outlier.

I like Winker and Ervin, but I can rattle off dozens of prospects who were thought of just as highly (many MUCH more highly) who never panned out. That is particularly true of highly ranked guys who have no experience above low-A or rookie ball.

I hope all three pan out, but experience tells me that is HIGHLY unlikely.

[Steve4192]

Seriously every thread you post in.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fuFn9aGQKXQ/URv8-NXj4eI/AAAAAAAADC0/JZC3uKeI7t8/s1600/Debbie+Downer.png


That's not true. I'm plenty positive in the major league forums. I never tear down guys who are in a slump or bust on guys because they don't play a certain way. I was one of the few people to support Mike Leake even when most posters were ready to trade him for a rosin bag. I was also one of those preaching patience when Jay Bruce started off the season in one of his slumps. Hell, I even defended Drew Stubbs more than a few times in the foolish belief that he could recapture his 2009-2010 level of performance.

But when it comes to the minor leagues, I have a more realistic view of prospects than many Redzoners. The reality is that most prospects fail. That is true for every single team in the majors. If won't bury my head in the sand just to please a few Pollyannas who believe all Reds prospects are under-rated and that they all will be standout major leaguers. They won't. I'm sorry if that offends your delicate sensibilities.

[LoganBuck]

That's not true. I'm plenty positive in the major league forums. I never tear down guys who are in a slump or bust on guys because they don't play a certain way. I was one of the few people to support Mike Leake even when most posters were ready to trade him for a rosin bag. I was also one of those preaching patience when Jay Bruce started off the season in one of his slumps. Hell, I even defended Drew Stubbs more than a few times in the foolish belief that he could recapture his 2009-2010 level of performance.

But when it comes to the minor leagues, I have a more realistic view of prospects than many Redzoners. The reality is that most prospects fail. That is true for every single team in the majors. If won't bury my head in the sand just to please a few Pollyannas who believe all Reds prospects are under-rated and that they all will be standout major leaguers. They won't. I'm sorry if that offends your delicate sensibilities.

It doesn't offend my delicate sensibilities. I fully understand that all Reds prospects won't be standout major leaguers. This board has a history though of guys writing players off and making sure they defend that position even in the face of players growing and developing, as the minor leaguers are intended to do. The development of Drew Stubbs, Homer Bailey, and Devin Mesoraco was the source of much argument. I just don't like to see lines drawn in the sand and then until the guy reaches the big leagues, people rooting for the guy to fail, to validate their position.

[MikeS21]

I find it hard to either write off or promote a prospect who has only been a minor leaguer for only three weeks. Can we at least give Ervin three months before we declare him a bust or a future superstar?

[Steve4192]

It doesn't offend my delicate sensibilities. I fully understand that all Reds prospects won't be standout major leaguers. This board has a history though of guys writing players off and making sure they defend that position even in the face of players growing and developing, as the minor leaguers are intended to do. The development of Drew Stubbs, Homer Bailey, and Devin Mesoraco was the source of much argument. I just don't like to see lines drawn in the sand and then until the guy reaches the big leagues, people rooting for the guy to fail, to validate their position.

I agree that it is way too early to write anyone off. That is why I never named names. I haven't staked out a position on any individual player. On a micro level, I like all of them as prospects and think they all have a good shot to become solid major leaguers. Unfortunately, no matter how much I like them individually as prospects, I know that on a macro level it is HIGHLY unlikely all three pan out. The most likely scenario is that one of them flops. The second most likely scenario is that two will flop. The third most likely scenario is a tie between they all flop and none of them flop. That's reality, not pessimism.

[MikeS21]

I agree that it is way too early to write anyone off. That is why I never named names. I haven't staked out a position on any individual player. On a micro level, I like all of them as prospects and think they all have a good shot to become solid major leaguers. Unfortunately, no matter how much I like them individually as prospects, I know that on a macro level it is HIGHLY unlikely all three pan out. The most likely scenario is that one of them flops. The second most likely scenario is that two will flop. The third most likely scenario is a tie between they all flop and none of them flop. That's reality, not pessimism.
It's a hard lesson to learn, to not get too excited about prospects.

My first recollection of realization that the FO had no clue what it was doing was back in May of 1997. One Sunday, early in May, the Cincinnati Enquirer laid out an entire spread on the Reds. The Reds were struggling, the farm system depleted - all except for one young guy by the name of Brett Tomko. I remember there was this long article all about Brett Tomko. There were about three member's of the Reds' top brass (Bowden and Allen included) who all were quoted as saying that "We're not going to rush Tomko to the majors. We're going to let him develop. Don't expect him this year." It wasn't two weeks later that sure enough, Tomko was called up before he was ready.

I also "drank the Kool Aid" given out by Jim Bowden, when he stood up in front of live TV cameras, and with a straight face told us that Rob Bell was the "next John Smoltz." I bought it hook, line, and sinker. :eek:

But the one that sealed my skepticism of prospects was when the Reds acquired Ricardo Aramboles. I thought he was Jose Rijo the Second, and I was convinced with a 1-2 punch of Rob Bell and Ricardo Aramboles, the Reds would run away with the NL Pennant. :laugh:

After living through Brandon Larson, Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, and the David Espinosa, Reds fans ought to have their excitement tempered over draft picks. In recent years the Reds "seem" to have made better draft picks. I still think it is too early to judge Nick Travieso as a prospect, and I really think Ervin needs a couple seasons before we see what we've got.

[Cedric]

It's a hard lesson to learn, to not get too excited about prospects.

My first recollection of realization that the FO had no clue what it was doing was back in May of 1997. One Sunday, early in May, the Cincinnati Enquirer laid out an entire spread on the Reds. The Reds were struggling, the farm system depleted - all except for one young guy by the name of Brett Tomko. I remember there was this long article all about Brett Tomko. There were about three member's of the Reds' top brass (Bowden and Allen included) who all were quoted as saying that "We're not going to rush Tomko to the majors. We're going to let him develop. Don't expect him this year." It wasn't two weeks later that sure enough, Tomko was called up before he was ready.

I also "drank the Kool Aid" given out by Jim Bowden, when he stood up in front of live TV cameras, and with a straight face told us that Rob Bell was the "next John Smoltz." I bought it hook, line, and sinker. :eek:

But the one that sealed my skepticism of prospects was when the Reds acquired Ricardo Aramboles. I thought he was Jose Rijo the Second, and I was convinced with a 1-2 punch of Rob Bell and Ricardo Aramboles, the Reds would run away with the NL Pennant. :laugh:

After living through Brandon Larson, Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, and the David Espinosa, Reds fans ought to have their excitement tempered over draft picks. In recent years the Reds "seem" to have made better draft picks. I still think it is too early to judge Nick Travieso as a prospect, and I really think Ervin needs a couple seasons before we see what we've got.

In other words you are jaded by the worst stretch in management both owner/gm in franchise history. Where have you been the last five years though? The Reds have churned out a division winning team from their farm system.

[Steve4192]

It's a hard lesson to learn, to not get too excited about prospects.

My first recollection of realization that the FO had no clue what it was doing was back in May of 1997. One Sunday, early in May, the Cincinnati Enquirer laid out an entire spread on the Reds. The Reds were struggling, the farm system depleted - all except for one young guy by the name of Brett Tomko. I remember there was this long article all about Brett Tomko. There were about three member's of the Reds' top brass (Bowden and Allen included) who all were quoted as saying that "We're not going to rush Tomko to the majors. We're going to let him develop. Don't expect him this year." It wasn't two weeks later that sure enough, Tomko was called up before he was ready.

I also "drank the Kool Aid" given out by Jim Bowden, when he stood up in front of live TV cameras, and with a straight face told us that Rob Bell was the "next John Smoltz." I bought it hook, line, and sinker. :eek:

But the one that sealed my skepticism of prospects was when the Reds acquired Ricardo Aramboles. I thought he was Jose Rijo the Second, and I was convinced with a 1-2 punch of Rob Bell and Ricardo Aramboles, the Reds would run away with the NL Pennant. :laugh:

After living through Brandon Larson, Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, and the David Espinosa, Reds fans ought to have their excitement tempered over draft picks. In recent years the Reds "seem" to have made better draft picks. I still think it is too early to judge Nick Travieso as a prospect, and I really think Ervin needs a couple seasons before we see what we've got.

It's basically the same story for me. One of the things I do each offseason while waiting for the new 'top prospect' lists to come out is to go back and review my old copies of Baseball Prospectus from the last 8-12 years to get a sober reminder of how few of those prospects will amount to anything.

For instance, looking at the 2004 prospectus, the top three position player prospects in all of baseball were Joe Mauer, Jeremy Reed, and Andy Marte. Obviously, Mauer met and exceeded all reasonable expectations. Reed and Marte OTOH were massive flops, and those guys weren't just run-of-the-mill prospects, they were two of the top three prospects IN ALL OF BASEBALL. Even elite prospects flop at a pretty high rate, and of the Reds prospects we were discussing, only Hamilton is considered elite at this stage of his development (and that is debatable given his performance thus far in AAA).

[Blitz Dorsey]

After living through Brandon Larson, Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, and the David Espinosa, Reds fans ought to have their excitement tempered over draft picks. In recent years the Reds "seem" to have made better draft picks. I still think it is too early to judge Nick Travieso as a prospect, and I really think Ervin needs a couple seasons before we see what we've got.

Let me ask you a question: How have recent first and second round picks worked out for the Reds? I'm specifically referring to players with names such as Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Todd Frazier, Mike Leake, Yonder Alonso (big piece in landing Latos), Yasmani Grandal (ditto) and Devin Mesoraco. No question I'm leaving a few out since I'm doing this off the top of my head.

Don't be jaded by the "lost decade." Focus on the fact that we have people running the organization now that know what the hell they are doing. I didn't include Billy Hamilton above, because he hasn't made the Majors yet. Safe to say that was a damn good pick and he will be a MLB player for several years. Not sure exactly how good he'll be yet, but he'll play in the Show for over a decade most likely. Robert Stephenson is looking like one hell of a good first-round pick. Times have changed for our team. They've changed fast and they've changed for the better.

[REDREAD]

Probably depends on whether Billy Hamilton learns to manage AAA/major league hitting.

Honestly, I like Billy's odds of success better than the other prospects, simply because he's closer to the bigs.

Billy tore up high A and AA last year. He was promoted aggressively to AAA and now is in an adjustment period. I have not followed his stats super closely, but I believe he's gotten better as the year has worn on.

Billy might not be ready in 2014 (unfortunately).. I feel really good about him being ready by 2015 though. The nice thing about Billy is that his other skills make OBP less important (in my opinion).. Gold glove defense, basestealing, etc.. His OBP doesn't have to be 360+ to be at least an average CF (again, all in my opinion).
Now I agree that Billy's lack of power is a minus, but still.. I like the odds of Billy being at least an average CF when the entire package is considered. If Billy stays healthy, there's no doubt he will be given at least a 2-3 year chance to grab a starting OF job (maybe not playing everyday, but he will be given chances.. just look at all the chances Heisey got).

[Steve4192]

In other words you are jaded by the worst stretch in management both owner/gm in franchise history. Where have you been the last five years though? The Reds have churned out a division winning team from their farm system.

It's not being jaded, it's being realistic. Go look at any top prospect list from five years ago or earlier. You will find a ton of flops in the top 100, the top 50, the top 25, the top 10, and even the top 5. That's just the way it works.

[Steve4192]

Honestly, I like Billy's odds of success better than the other prospects, simply because he's closer to the bigs.

Agreed.

I have a hard time getting excited about any prospect until they make it to the upper minors. As bad as the washout rate is for prospects in general, it is MUCH worse for prospects who are still in single-A or lower. New wunderkinds pop up every year in single-A, and for every one of them there are a bunch more who drop off the prospects lists and are never heard from again.

[REDREAD]

Agreed.

I have a hard time getting excited about any prospect until they make it to the upper minors. As bad as the washout rate is for prospects in general, it is MUCH worse for prospects who are still in single-A or lower. New wunderkinds pop up every year in single-A, and for every one of them there are a bunch more who drop off the prospects lists and are never heard from again.

True.. if every prospect lived up to their hype, the average MLB career would only be about 1-2 years :) It's really hard for a youngster to displace a veteran player, because usually the veteran player is better.

Lots of work to do from being drafted to making the major leagues. Pretty incredible that Leake was able to go to the majors right after college, IMO.

Heck, this is not a bash on Homer, but he was called up to the majors way too early. Despite his good tools, it took time for him to blossom. (I am blaming the Reds for rushing him, in a desperate attempt to get fan interest during the Dark Ages).

You're right, it's usually a long road from being drafted to making the bigs.
Although I agree that this current administration is doing an oustanding job with the draft. I'm extremely pleased with the pick of Ervin. Honestly, based on our draft position, I didn't think we'd get a player this good. No guarantee he'll make it, but a nice pick.

[RedlegJake]

While I certainly trust this management more than earlier regimes I have to agree with Steve and Mike. I get excited and often too optimistic about prospects. When I look realistically I'm happy if 1 in 3 touted guys end up actually proving out. Pitchers, no matter how good are always a bad tweak from being done or delayed a long time and hitters seem to be "found out" by pitching at some point...sometimes until they reach the show (ala Larson). Instead I try to judge by the volume of solid prospectd both those who put up numbers and those who have tools to put it together. The more of em you have the better the chancd a few actually make it. The suckers bet imo is only having a couple 3 guys and betting they all pan out. Its not jaded...as Steve says...its just how it works.

[MikeS21]

I don't see it as being jaded. I see it as remembering that a prospect is still just a prospect.

Don't get me wrong. I love watching the Reds draft and develop talent. To me, that's what makes watching the franchise enjoyable. I'd rather see a home grown talent than a talent bought in via trade or FA. I detest the entire FA system and the desire by far too many folks to "buy" championships. I want to see championships grown.

And I agree recent drafts have been more successful than in those days. But we cannot dismiss the lessons we learned from those drafts simply because we want to write them off as bad drafts.

Now for the purposes of this thread, we are talking about Phil Ervin. It's only been three weeks, but I kind of like what I have seen from him and what I have read about him. But I reiterate, it's only been three weeks. And honestly, I had never heard of Phil Ervin until they called his name on draft day. It is way too premature for any of us to project where or if he is going land in the top 50 or top 100 Prospect lists.

I don't call that being jaded. It's being realistic.

[RedEye]

Honestly, I like Billy's odds of success better than the other prospects, simply because he's closer to the bigs.

Billy tore up high A and AA last year. He was promoted aggressively to AAA and now is in an adjustment period. I have not followed his stats super closely, but I believe he's gotten better as the year has worn on.

Billy might not be ready in 2014 (unfortunately).. I feel really good about him being ready by 2015 though. The nice thing about Billy is that his other skills make OBP less important (in my opinion).. Gold glove defense, basestealing, etc.. His OBP doesn't have to be 360+ to be at least an average CF (again, all in my opinion).
Now I agree that Billy's lack of power is a minus, but still.. I like the odds of Billy being at least an average CF when the entire package is considered. If Billy stays healthy, there's no doubt he will be given at least a 2-3 year chance to grab a starting OF job (maybe not playing everyday, but he will be given chances.. just look at all the chances Heisey got).

If Billy Hamilton only gets the chances Chris Heisey has to establish himself in the OF, I will be very surprised -- and very disappointed.

[Tom Servo]

If Billy Hamilton only gets the chances Chris Heisey has to establish himself in the OF, I will be very surprised -- and very disappointed.
If Dusty is still managing the Reds when Billy comes up, I think he will get every chance to play CF and hit leadoff regularly.

[Tony Cloninger]

If Billy Hamilton only gets the chances Chris Heisey has to establish himself in the OF, I will be very surprised -- and very disappointed.

He will get as many chances as Stubbs if not more. No way he is considered a 4th OF like Heisey has been and looks to be.

[REDREAD]

If Billy Hamilton only gets the chances Chris Heisey has to establish himself in the OF, I will be very surprised -- and very disappointed.

I meant to say.. given how many chances Heisey has had (which I think is a lot, given his pedigree and production).. Top prospect Hamilton is going to get plenty of chances (more than Heisey).

[Blitz Dorsey]

I don't see it as being jaded. I see it as remembering that a prospect is still just a prospect.

Don't get me wrong. I love watching the Reds draft and develop talent. To me, that's what makes watching the franchise enjoyable. I'd rather see a home grown talent than a talent bought in via trade or FA. I detest the entire FA system and the desire by far too many folks to "buy" championships. I want to see championships grown.

And I agree recent drafts have been more successful than in those days. But we cannot dismiss the lessons we learned from those drafts simply because we want to write them off as bad drafts.

Now for the purposes of this thread, we are talking about Phil Ervin. It's only been three weeks, but I kind of like what I have seen from him and what I have read about him. But I reiterate, it's only been three weeks. And honestly, I had never heard of Phil Ervin until they called his name on draft day. It is way too premature for any of us to project where or if he is going land in the top 50 or top 100 Prospect lists.

I don't call that being jaded. It's being realistic.

Yes, what you just posted here is realistic. I completely agree with the points you made.

However, in a previous post where you brought up busts like Gruler, Howington, Espinoza ... that came across as jaded. Everything about the Reds sucked during those days; not just our draft picks (although the poor drafts obviously contributed to the Reds overall suckiness).

Again, times have changed. How could a Reds fans who is paying close attention not have faith in Chris Buckley?

[Steve4192]

Yes, what you just posted here is realistic. I completely agree with the points you made.

However, in a previous post where you brought up busts like Gruler, Howington, Espinoza ... that came across as jaded. Everything about the Reds sucked during those days; not just our draft picks (although the poor drafts obviously contributed to the Reds overall suckiness).

Again, times have changed. How could a Reds fans who is paying close attention not have faith in Chris Buckley?

I have great faith in Buckley ... but even the best scouts and player development guys swing and miss WAY more often than they hit one out of the park.

[dougdirt]

I have great faith in Buckley ... but even the best scouts and player development guys swing and miss WAY more often than they hit one out of the park.

Yeah, but how often have the Reds swung and missed on a first round pick in his tenure? He is perfect at getting them to the Majors, so you can't really say he missed on a single one of them. Beyond the first round, of course you are going to miss. But the Reds haven't really screwed up a first round pick since when? 2003 and even then, the guy made the Majors and was productive for a limited amount of time. I'm sure we could argue they didn't make the "right" pick, but they certainly have avoided making the wrong one too.

[RedTeamGo!]

Yeah, but how often have the Reds swung and missed on a first round pick in his tenure? He is perfect at getting them to the Majors, so you can't really say he missed on a single one of them. Beyond the first round, of course you are going to miss. But the Reds haven't really screwed up a first round pick since when? 2003 and even then, the guy made the Majors and was productive for a limited amount of time. I'm sure we could argue they didn't make the "right" pick, but they certainly have avoided making the wrong one too.

Drew Stubbs comes to mind as the wrong pick. Lincecum, Sczerzer, Kennedy all drafted after him. Hindsight and all that, but I remember manys fans being disappointed the Reds did not draft Lincecum over him. He made it to the majors, but his minor league numbers were not exactly stellar.

[dougdirt]

Drew Stubbs comes to mind as the wrong pick. Lincecum, Sczerzer, Kennedy all drafted after him. Hindsight and all that, but I remember manys fans being disappointed the Reds did not draft Lincecum over him. He made it to the majors, but his minor league numbers were not exactly stellar.
Drew Stubbs wasn't the right pick, but he wasn't the wrong pick. Billy Rowell was the wrong pick. He went in the top 10 that year and hasn't even played in the last two seasons because he was so bad. Kasey Kiker was the wrong pick. Never made the Majors, went 12th overall. From that first round, Drew Stubbs has the 6th best bWAR. Three of the guys were already taken when the Reds picked.

Not the wrong pick at all. Just not the right one. The Reds didn't blow the pick.

[Rojo]

Drew Stubbs wasn't the right pick, but he wasn't the wrong pick.

This is useful distinction. You can still build a ball club without making the right picks. But you're doomed if you make too many wrong ones.

Henry James: Excellence doesn't require perfection.

[Rojo]

New Comp: Kevin McReynolds. Kind of a RF/CF tweener, decent power, some speed.

[JaxRed]

Speaking of Ervin, he's cooled off a bit. Only .257 with .824 OPS his last 10 games.

[RadfordVA]

Ervin has heated back up. .294/.415/.559 last 10 games. Wouldn't mind seeing a promotion now. He struggled, then came back from it so would be a good time to advance with confidence high.

[wastedtime]

Interesting.

Could Ludwick's rehab stint in Dayton slow an Ervin promotion?

[bellhead]

Interesting.

Could Ludwick's rehab stint in Dayton slow an Ervin promotion?

Different positions, I'd bring Ervin up to shadow Ludwick as he has an excellent reputation about putting in the work to sucdeed.

[wastedtime]

Different positions, I'd bring Ervin up to shadow Ludwick as he has an excellent reputation about putting in the work to sucdeed.

So, then, minor league squads don't have roster size limits? Or do rehabbing players not count towards roster size?

[texasdave]

So, then, minor league squads don't have roster size limits? Or do rehabbing players not count towards roster size?


Rehabilitation assignments do not count as optional assignments nor do they count against the minor league affiliate's active roster.



Yes, as the link from the bottom of my answer will show. Here's the primary info, straight from Minor League Baseball's website:

Triple-A: International, Pacific Coast — 24 players may be active at one time; 38 players may be under team control.
Double-A: Eastern, Southern, Texas — 24 active; 37 under control.
Class A Advanced: California, Carolina, Florida State — 25 active; 35 under control; no more than two players and one player-coach on active list may have six or more years of prior Minor League service.
Class A: Midwest, South Atlantic — 25 active; 35 under control; no more than two players on active list may have five or more years of prior Minor League service.
Class A Short-Season: New York-Penn, Northwest — 30 active; 35 under control, but only 25 may be in uniform and eligible to play in any given game; no more than three players on the active list may have four or more years of prior Minor League service.
Rookie: Appalachian, Pioneer, Arizona, Gulf Coast leagues — 35 active, but only 30 may be in uniform and eligible to play in any given game; no player may have three or more years of prior Minor League Service.
Rookie: Venezuelan Summer, Dominican Summer — 35 active, but only 30 may be in uniform and eligible to play in any given game; no player may have four or more years of prior Minor League Service.


Typically, when one player is demoted, another player is either promoted to replace him or it sets off a series of demotions that ends in someone getting put on a reserve list for one of the teams (which accounts for the difference between the active roster and total players under team control).

FAQs: The Business of MiLB | MiLB.com Official Info | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

[Bernie Carbo]

I attended the Brewers/Mustang game in Helena last night. Ervin was dialed in getting 4 hits with 2 Home Runs. This is the 2nd time that I have seen him play this summer and he looked much more relaxed, not pressing as much.

[texasdave]

Dialed in is right.

Ervin's stats in his last 14 games: .358/.443/.736/1.178 4HR 17RS 15RBI 12XBH

[OnBaseMachine]

I would love to see Ervin promoted to Dayton ASAP.

[klw]

Dialed in is right.

Ervin's stats in his last 14 games: .358/.443/.736/1.178 4HR 17RS 15RBI 12XBH

Add elite amounts of stolen bases and 100 points to that BA and you get Gary Redus ;)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=redus-001gar

[Brutus]

I try not to get too gaga over most prospects knowing few will succeed, but between Ervin and Winker, I admit I'm pretty excited about the possibilities. It seems both are legitimately talented hitters who seem to know what they're doing at the plate.

[Bernie Carbo]

Ervin hammered another homer in Helena last night in a home run derby in Helena---8 home runs hit in the game.

[TOBTTReds]

I try not to get too gaga over most prospects knowing few will succeed, but between Ervin and Winker, I admit I'm pretty excited about the possibilities. It seems both are legitimately talented hitters who seem to know what they're doing at the plate.

I don't even care if the stats are or aren't similar, but Winker reminds me so much of Joey Votto when he was in Dayton. I had the pleasure of seeing Votto play about 50+ games in Dayton. Anyone close to the team knew he was legit.

[mdccclxix]

What happened with his wrist? When was that?

[Chuckie]

Sorry I missed it, but what is going on with Ervin and Winker? Both hurt? Hopefully it's nothing serious. Thanks.

[PepperJack]

Sorry I missed it, but what is going on with Ervin and Winker? Both hurt? Hopefully it's nothing serious. Thanks.


Ervin sprained his wrist a couple of weeks ago, while Winker injured/sprained his foot/ankle area making a catch at the wall. Neither has been reported as serious, and they aren't believed to require surgery. But the timing seems to indicate that the Reds will just shut them down to get healthy for fall instructions, and next spring.

[Chuckie]

Thanks for the reply.

[CySeymour]

So what would be the best guess estimate to Ervin's ETA in the big leagues?

[Benihana]

So what would be the best guess estimate to Ervin's ETA in the big leagues?

2016 or 2017. Would not expect to see him in Cincy before 2016, unless Hamilton falls flat and Ervin sets the world on fire a la Bruce in 2007-2008.

[bellhead]

He is also competing against Winkler and Yorman who are both younger and more accomplished minor league players. Also Yorman may have the best tools in the minors.

[LoganBuck]

As a college guy, Ervin could be as soon as next September, if he goes nuclear. Most likely June 2015.

[bellhead]

As a college guy, Ervin could be as soon as next September, if he goes nuclear. Most likely June 2015.

He played a hand full of games in low A ball, best hope is he is in AA by the end of 2014. 2015 he starts in AA and is moved to AAA and finishes up 2015 with a call up. 2016 would be his year.

[LoganBuck]

College bats with a knowledge of the strike zone move fast. Dont forget that this was the 2012 Cape Cod League MVP. He is a more polished prospect. I am not saying to push the kid, but it would not surprise me if he was in Cincinnati next September. Quite frankly the farm system needs someone to blossom. 2016 or 2017 would make him a massive disappointment.

[Benihana]

College bats with a knowledge of the strike zone move fast. Dont forget that this was the 2012 Cape Cod League MVP. He is a more polished prospect. I am not saying to push the kid, but it would not surprise me if he was in Cincinnati next September. Quite frankly the farm system needs someone to blossom. 2016 or 2017 would make him a massive disappointment.

I think it's possible he could be up sometime in 2015 if he really blossoms, but I think it would be incorrect to label him a massive disappointment if he didn't debut until 2016 (or even 2017). Todd Frazier was a first round pick and similar college star who didn't make his debut until four years after he was drafted - the equivalent of 2017 for Ervin. Correctly, no one ever labeled Frazier as a massive disappointment.

I think expecting him to be in the big leagues at any point in 2014 is relatively unrealistic, unless he really lights the world on fire.

[Benihana]

He is also competing against Winkler and Yorman who are both younger and more accomplished minor league players. Also Yorman may have the best tools in the minors.

I believe Yorman has to stick in the big leagues by 2015.

That could also delay the urgency on Ervin, especially if Hamilton can hold down CF.

I think of ETAs at this time like this (obviously subject to change based off of needs and next year's performance):

Lorenzen 2014
Stephenson late 2014
Y.Rodriguez 2015
Winker 2016
Ervin 2016

[Steve4192]

Todd Frazier was a first round pick and similar college star who didn't make his debut until four years after he was drafted - the equivalent of 2017 for Ervin. Correctly, no one ever labeled Frazier as a massive disappointment.

I recall a LOT of people being very disappointed in Frazier circa winter of 2010 through spring of 2012 when he was a 24-26 year old LF putting up an 800 OPS with crappy plate discipline over parts of four AAA campaigns. In 2011 pre-season rankings, Jon Sickels had him rated as a B- prospect. Kevin Goldstein dropped him down to 15th best prospect in the system (an unusually low position for a former 1st round pick). The general view was that his ceiling was a decent bench bat who could play multiple corner positions. He improved marginally in 2011, but he entered 2012 as a guy who was in his third season at AAA and already 26 years old. No one considered him a prospect at that point.

[Steve4192]

I believe Yorman has to stick in the big leagues by 2015.

Let's hope so.

He HAS to be in the big leagues by 2016, so hopefully he is ready before it becomes mandatory.

[LoganBuck]

I think it's possible he could be up sometime in 2015 if he really blossoms, but I think it would be incorrect to label him a massive disappointment if he didn't debut until 2016 (or even 2017). Todd Frazier was a first round pick and similar college star who didn't make his debut until four years after he was drafted - the equivalent of 2017 for Ervin. Correctly, no one ever labeled Frazier as a massive disappointment.

I think expecting him to be in the big leagues at any point in 2014 is relatively unrealistic, unless he really lights the world on fire.

Benihana wrote on 6-7-2007

Who's first to the majors- Drew Stubbs or Todd Fraizer?

Put the house on Frazier for me.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1377125&highlight=todd+frazier#post1377125

There was also this thread from 2011
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=89027

[Benihana]

Benihana wrote on 6-7-2007

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1377125&highlight=todd+frazier#post1377125

There was also this thread from 2011
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=89027

And?

[LoganBuck]

And?

Just saying people, including yourself were a bit underwhelmed by Frazier's progress, given expectations.

[Benihana]

Just saying people, including yourself were a bit underwhelmed by Frazier's progress, given expectations.

Sure, but a massive disappointment would be a bit strong. Ervin should arrive sometime in 2015 or 2016, but even if it's 2017 I won't be massively disappointed (yet).

The only way I will be massively disappointed with Ervin is if he does not turn into a major league starter- and hopefully an above average one.

[redsof72]

We have not seen enough of Ervin yet to really have an idea of what is there. He needs to play a season, go through some ups and downs, show what he can do when the opposing team starts to pitch to his weaknesses, show how hard he is going to work, etc.

I saw a couple things with Ervin that stood out in the short time he was in Dayton. One, unlike many first-year pro hitters, he was not completely overmatched when facing a guy with a good slider. He would lay off the slider that broke out of the zone. He could hit a breaking ball. That is a pretty positive statement for a guy that is fairly raw. It was a good sign that he can become a good hitter. On the other side of the coin, I thought he would be a little faster. He is not a true burner, ala Arias, Bowe, or of course, Hamilton. Maybe a little more speed will come when he gets on a professional conditioning program.

Ervin is not close to as polished as Frazier was at the same stage, but Ervin obviously has more athleticism. It would not be a surprise if it took Ervin at least as long as it took Frazier to get to the show, but that is putting the cart before the horse at this stage of his development.

[lollipopcurve]

Ervin is not close to as polished as Frazier was at the same stage, but Ervin obviously has more athleticism. It would not be a surprise if it took Ervin at least as long as it took Frazier to get to the show, but that is putting the cart before the horse at this stage of his development.

Ervin was at least a year younger than Frazier was when he was at Dayton. I believe Ervin was 20 last summer when drafted. Frazier was in his 2nd summer of pro ball when he was at Dayton.

My sense is that Ervin is ahead, developmentally, but time will tell. It probably hurt Frazier that he was moved around so much.

[dougdirt]

From what I saw of Ervin, and I will admit up front it wasn't a ton since he was injured, he needs to tighten up his "swing zone" a little bit, but I think for the most part he gets the strikezone better than most players in the system. He has a short swing as well, which helps quite a bit. Unlike Frazier, who was more aggressive, which ultimately led to problems with good breaking stuff. Frazier also had a longer swing. While we know that anything could happen, it would be surprising to me if it took Ervin 4 more years to get to Cincinnati.

[klw]

On the other side of the coin, I thought he would be a little faster. He is not a true burner, ala Arias, Bowe, or of course, Hamilton. Maybe a little more speed will come when he gets on a professional conditioning program.


Didn't Ervin deal with a lower leg injury in college this year? That could have been leading to a different approach, less speed.


Edit: Yep, ankle injury
http://www.scout.com/a.z?s=143&p=8&c=1&nid=7025978&pg=2

Doug at post 65 in this thread reported:

The big divide is mostly because he played with an injured ankle this year. He wasn't as fast because of it and some wondered if he could play center. That is where most of the divide comes from. Some bought into the idea that he is just an average runner based on him playing with a sprained ankle this spring. Before he hurt his ankle, he was a plus runner.

[RadfordVA]

Pretty disappointing start so far for Ervin. The k rate has been rather shocking. Anyone know if it is mostly due to not recognizing breaking balls or just a lot of swing and miss in his game? Only 69 at bats but .273 obp .261 slg right now with 21 strikeouts in 69 at bats. Last year only had 34 k in 172 at bats.

[redsof72]

Just not hitting yet. Yes, chasing some sliders out of the zone for strike three, but also not hitting the fastball over the plate earlier in the at-bat that would have kept him out of the two-strike count to begin with. It is early. I cautioned everyone with this player to wait and see what he does. He may turn out to be a great player but he has a ways to go.

This is why I had Winker higher. Winker, as a 19 year old with a half season of pro experience, stepped into a full season league and was a star from day one, plugged into the 3-spot in the order right out of the gate. Never looked overmatched for a minute. Ervin might still turn out to be the better player, but as a 22 year old, he is way, way behind where Winker was as a 19 year old.

[Chuckie]

Yeah, I'm shocked at how anemic his numbers are so far this year. It's very early, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't very disappointed. He should be tearing up Dayton. A college player that was a first-round pick is struggling at low-A ball a year after the draft? Not good.

[dougdirt]

Yeah, I'm shocked at how anemic his numbers are so far this year. It's very early, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't very disappointed. He should be tearing up Dayton. A college player that was a first-round pick is struggling at low-A ball a year after the draft? Not good.

He tore it up there last year. Something isn't right, and you do expect more, but I think with how he performed last season it clearly hints at something not being right.

[PepperJack]

My guess would be the wrist is still lingering on him. Wrist/hand injuries can mess with hitters for a long while, even after they are healed, the changes they make to alter their swings to accommodate the pain.

He was too good, too patient for me to believe he just didn't have the ability to hit Low-A pitching.

[Rojo]

but also not hitting the fastball over the plate earlier in the at-bat that would have kept him out of the two-strike count to begin with.

Not an accusation but speculation: could he have picked up some over-coaching?

[krm1580]

I have not paid too much attention to Ervin since he got off to such a terrible start, but a couple of interesting things:

Since June 1: .367 .406/.567./.973

Also the guy in on pace for 40+ steals 17SB 1CS

[Steve4192]

Ervin is a perfect illustration of the fickleness of baseball fans.

When he was tearing it up in 2013, he was the greatest thing since sliced bread, but when he stumbled out of the gate in 2014, his bandwagon emptied out in a hurry. Player development is a marathon, not a sprint. A prospect is always going to have highs and lows. Fans need to learn to temper their enthusiasm during the highs and do the same for their disappointment during the lows.

[PepperJack]

Ervin is a perfect illustration of the fickleness of baseball fans.

When he was tearing it up in 2013, he was the greatest thing since sliced bread, but when he stumbled out of the gate in 2014, his bandwagon emptied out in a hurry. Player development is a marathon, not a sprint. A prospect is always going to have highs and lows. Fans need to learn to temper their enthusiasm during the highs and do the same for their disappointment during the lows.


I think it's really important for his development to learn to handle the struggles, and perhaps how to perform at less than 100%, and come out the other side stronger, and a better player for it.

Hopefully he continues to turn his season around, and will be able to look back at how much he learned and grew this season.

[RED VAN HOT]

Ervin is a perfect illustration of the fickleness of baseball fans.

When he was tearing it up in 2013, he was the greatest thing since sliced bread, but when he stumbled out of the gate in 2014, his bandwagon emptied out in a hurry. Player development is a marathon, not a sprint. A prospect is always going to have highs and lows. Fans need to learn to temper their enthusiasm during the highs and do the same for their disappointment during the lows.

Agree. I sometimes think it is a contest in RZ to be the first to pronounce a prospect a bust.

[dougdirt]

Ervin is a perfect illustration of the fickleness of baseball fans.

When he was tearing it up in 2013, he was the greatest thing since sliced bread, but when he stumbled out of the gate in 2014, his bandwagon emptied out in a hurry. Player development is a marathon, not a sprint. A prospect is always going to have highs and lows. Fans need to learn to temper their enthusiasm during the highs and do the same for their disappointment during the lows.

Mind your business Steve! I want my gratification for everything RIGHT NOW.

*never jumped off of the Ervin bandwagon*
*some people call me crazy*

Those things may not be related.

[WrongVerb]

Mind your business Steve! I want my gratification for everything RIGHT NOW.

*never jumped off of the Ervin bandwagon*
*some people call me crazy*

Those things may not be related.

I was right there with you on the bandwagon. I figured the guy either had a mild injury or was working on some things in his game. Sometimes those changes to one's technique are a step back before 2-3 leaps forward can happen.

[JaxRed]

I'm still off the bandwagon.

[corkedbat]

Still a fan of Ervin, I've just tempered my enthusiasm a bit. I thought he was going to be a fast mover. He's still beats the 4th OF dreck we were getting 4-5 years ago.

[kaldaniels]

If we are having a roll call, I'm onboard w/ Ervin.

[Brutus]

I jumped on the Ervin bandwagon last year very early and also on the Winker bandwagon. I've remained on both this year through the thick (Winker) and the thin (Ervin).

[Tom Servo]

I jumped on the Ervin bandwagon last year very early and also on the Winker bandwagon. I've remained on both this year through the thick (Winker) and the thin (Ervin).
Get on the Seth Mejias-Brean bandwagon too Brutus before it's too late!

[OGB]

Last year Ervin struck out 34 times but walked 25. This year he's off to a bad start hitting, but his OBP is still .063 higher. I've tempered my enthusiasm slightly as far as how fast he'll move, but I love his approach.
In three years, I dream of a Reds team with Winker, SMB, and Ervin in the lineup all OBPing .375+

[WrongVerb]

Last year Ervin struck out 34 times but walked 25. This year he's off to a bad start hitting, but his OBP is still .063 higher. I've tempered my enthusiasm slightly as far as how fast he'll move, but I love his approach.
In three years, I dream of a Reds team with Winker, SMB, and Ervin in the lineup all OBPing .375+

I have high hopes for Blandino to be right there with them.

C Mez/Tucker
1b Votto
2b Blandino
SS ??? (Daal?)
3b SMB
LF Ervin
CF Hamilton
RF Winker

*shrug* Too early to project, definitely

[RedEye]

I have high hopes for Blandino to be right there with them.

C Mez/Tucker
1b Votto
2b Blandino
SS ??? (Daal?)
3b SMB
LF Ervin
CF Hamilton
RF Winker

*shrug* Too early to project, definitely

I like your optimism, but if all of those guys become everyday players on the Reds, that would be an almost unprecedented success story for a minor league development team.

[Benihana]

I have high hopes for Blandino to be right there with them.

C Mez/Tucker
1b Votto
2b Blandino
SS ??? (Daal?)
3b SMB
LF Ervin
CF Hamilton
RF Winker

*shrug* Too early to project, definitely

Of course it's too early, but here is how I like to think of 2017/2018:

CF Hamilton (or Ervin)
1B Votto
LF Winker
C Mesoraco
RF Bruce (could be Ervin or Yorman)
3B Frazier (could be SMB, Sparks or Rahier)
2B Blandino (or very likely someone currently outside the org)
SS Daal (or very likely someone currently outside the org)

SP Latos or Cueto
SP Bailey
SP Stephenson
SP Lorenzen
SP Cingrani (could be Moscot, Lively, Travieso or Howard)

CL Chapman (could be Cingrani or Contreras)

Question: Could SMB ever be considered for 2B or does he not have the range?

[corkedbat]

If they plan on having Aroldis as part of this organization much longer, they best start working him into the rotation in the next 12 mos. because I don't want to see any $12-14M closers on this squad. No way that Chapman should still be a Red if he's still in the pen come 2017 or 18.

[WrongVerb]

Of course it's too early, but here is how I like to think of 2017/2018:

CF Hamilton (or Ervin)
1B Votto
LF Winker
C Mesoraco
RF Bruce (could be Ervin or Yorman)
3B Frazier (could be SMB, Sparks or Rahier)
2B Blandino (or very likely someone currently outside the org)
SS Daal (or very likely someone currently outside the org)

SP Latos or Cueto
SP Bailey
SP Stephenson
SP Lorenzen
SP Cingrani (could be Moscot, Lively, Travieso or Howard)

CL Chapman (could be Cingrani or Contreras)

Question: Could SMB ever be considered for 2B or does he not have the range?

Doug said that SMB doesn't have the range for it.

[WrongVerb]

I like your optimism, but if all of those guys become everyday players on the Reds, that would be an almost unprecedented success story for a minor league development team.

I don't disagree. I think Winker is the only absolute Sure Thing, and we all know every Sure Thing ever in the history of baseball has gone on to incredible major league success.

But I do think this system is as stocked or more than the early-mid 80s when Davis, Larkin, etc were coming through. Look at the talent that graduated to the major leagues during that time. Just thinking back, it's incredible. (And there were STILL a lot of flame-outs like Wade Rowdon, Scott Scudder, etc)

[Benihana]

Speaking of fickleness, is anyone else starting to worry again about Ervin?

While he had a nice June - it wasn't an out of this world June - it was the exact kind of production I would've expected from a 22 year old college corner OF drafted in the first round in A ball (.870 OPS). What is troubling to me is the first two months performance, plus his performance so far in July, brings his season average down to a .650 OPS. If it were just April and May, I could understand blaming it on injury. But if this slow pace keeps up for the rest of July and into August, I will start to become concerned.

A guy with Ervin's pedigree and profile should be OPSing .900 in Dayton this year. Let's wait and see what happens for the next eight weeks, but he's officially on watch.

Just to put some context around vis-a-vis Buckley's other highly drafted college OF:
The last OF the Reds drafted in the first round, the much-maligned Drew Stubbs OPS'd .785 in his first full professional season in Dayton.
2010 second rounder (and bust) Ryan LaMarre was already in high-A at this point in his career after OPS'ing .767 in Dayton.
Ervin is tracking more towards the even-more-maligned-and-rightfully-so Jeff Gelalich, who OPS'd .630 in his first full professional season in Dayton, just last year.

[JaxRed]

I'm still off the bandwagon.

I never stopped worrying about Ervin.

[fearofpopvol1]

Speaking of fickleness, is anyone else starting to worry again about Ervin?

While he had a nice June - it wasn't an out of this world June - it was the exact kind of production I would've expected from a 22 year old college corner OF drafted in the first round in A ball (.870 OPS). What is troubling to me is the first two months performance, plus his performance so far in July, brings his season average down to a .650 OPS. If it were just April and May, I could understand blaming it on injury. But if this slow pace keeps up for the rest of July and into August, I will start to become concerned.

A guy with Ervin's pedigree and profile should be OPSing .900 in Dayton this year. Let's wait and see what happens for the next eight weeks, but he's officially on watch.

Just to put some context around vis-a-vis Buckley's other highly drafted college OF:
The last OF the Reds drafted in the first round, the much-maligned Drew Stubbs OPS'd .785 in his first full professional season in Dayton.
2010 second rounder (and bust) Ryan LaMarre was already in high-A at this point in his career after OPS'ing .767 in Dayton.
Ervin is tracking more towards the even-more-maligned-and-rightfully-so Jeff Gelalich, who OPS'd .630 in his first full professional season in Dayton, just last year.

DougDirt isn't.

[dougdirt]

DougDirt isn't.

Pretty much.

The tools are there. I've seen the skills there in the past and at parts of this season too. I'm willing to give him a bit of a pass this season. I've seen enough to know it's in there.

[Benihana]

Pretty much.

The tools are there. I've seen the skills there in the past and at parts of this season too. I'm willing to give him a bit of a pass this season. I've seen enough to know it's in there.
I hope you're right, I'm not really arguing this one. I liked the Ervin pick at the time, and don't dislike it now. I will say though, if he doesn't start to hit in the next 6-8 weeks I will start to be a bit concerned.

I'd like to see the guy finish the season at least around the .750 level.

[Rojo]

I love Ervin, and yet I'm a bit worried. Here's my unorthodox fix -- promote him to Bakersfield, after you promote Silva to Pensacola.

[Chuckie]

Why haven't they moved him to Bakersfield yet? You know his numbers would automatically make a drastic improvement.

The season he's having at Dayton is a huge disappointment.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'd be curious to hear 72's opinion on Ervin at this juncture.

I'm slightly concerned, but am definitely willing to see how the rest of the season shakes out before thinking much else.

[klw]

Ervin can hit it far.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=34418731&sid=milb

His hand positions before the swing remind me of Mesoraco.

[GoRedLegs]

I am a bit worried about Ervin as well, but not panic button

[757690]

Ervin was the 27th pick in 2013. The history of late 20 picks isn't that memorable. It also wasn't that deep of a draft, so this isn't all that surprising.

[Chuckie]

Ervin was the 27th pick in 2013. The history of late 20 picks isn't that memorable. It also wasn't that deep of a draft, so this isn't all that surprising.

The 27th pick is the same exact spot where we got Robert Stephenson two years prior to Ervin.

Also, Mr. Red wears the No. 27. (Not to mention 1990 World Series MVP Jose Rijo.) So, I thought it was all adding up to Phil Ervin being a future star.

:D

I still think there's a chance he will turn things around and become a top prospect. I wish they would just send him to Bakersfield. That's an automatic slump-buster right there.

[Steve4192]

I wish they would just send him to Bakersfield. That's an automatic slump-buster right there.

There are a number of things I don't like about that idea.

1. Minor leaguers need to learn how to deal with adversity. I'd rather he learn how to battle his own way out of this slump rather than the team taking actions to try and do it for him. Going through adversity and making adjustments is one of the most important experiences a minor leaguer can have. Better to learn how to cope with hard times in the bush leagues than to learn it under the microscope in the majors.

2. It doesn't fix any underlying problems. If Ervin is struggling to repeat his mechanics or is injured, promoting him to Bakersfield won't do anything to fix that. Better to get that stuff sorted out in his current environment rather than throwing another variable into the equation.

3. It sends the wrong message to the rest of the organization. It tells other players in the organization that all the work they've been doing is in vain. Promotions come based on draft position, not hard work and results. Ervin hasn't EARNED a promotion.

[Chuckie]

Don't underestimate the importance of confidence in sports. Doesn't matter the sport, having confidence is paramount.

No need to risk hurting this kid's confidence so early in his career. He's fought through enough adversity this year. Give him the call-up to Bakersfield. Plenty of guys move up a level in the minors when they don't necessarily deserve it. But the point here is this is about building up Ervin's confidence, not hurting it. A call-up to Bakersfield can only help.

[RedTeamGo!]

Don't underestimate the importance of confidence in sports. Doesn't matter the sport, having confidence is paramount.

No need to risk hurting this kid's confidence so early in his career. He's fought through enough adversity this year. Give him the call-up to Bakersfield. Plenty of guys move up a level in the minors when they don't necessarily deserve it. But the point here is this is about building up Ervin's confidence, not hurting it. A call-up to Bakersfield can only help.

How does moving up a level without deserving it builds one confidence? He has the internet, he knows his stats, and he knows he doesn't deserve to move up right now.

[redsof72]

Excellent post Steve4192. Good points.

Ervin...let's start with the positive. Dramatic improvement in center field...now looks like a guy who won't hurt you there, which is a sharp contrast to where he was last year and early this year....has tremendous bat speed, so when he makes solid contact, the ball is going to go somewhere in a hurry...has much better power than the home run numbers imply...can hit a good fastball.

On the other hand...long way to go as a hitter. I asked four scouts last night if they were turning him in on their report as an everyday player and none of the four said they were. He doesn't just chase sliders out of the zone, he struggles with breaking balls in the zone. Any breaking ball on the outer half of the plate is a problem because he takes a huge, dead pull swing. You move him up right now to face pitchers with good command of their breaking ball and he will get absolutely embarrassed. His speed is overrated. I would say he is an average major league runner. His timed speed to first is actually below average because he takes such a big swing that he is slow out of the box. Needs to learn to hit the ball to all fields. Does not have a standout tool. I am not crazy about his makeup, but he does play hard. Seems to be a guy who has never really been pushed and does not react well to criticism.

All that being said, don't give up on him. He could still become a useful player if some things go right.

[RedTeamGo!]

Wow. In one paragraph my hopes in Ervin have been flushed down the toilet.

Thanks for the report, redsof72. Interesting stuff.

[redsof72]

Don't give up on him. Just don't pencil him in yet at GABP. Mesoraco was the worst defensive catcher in the league in Dayton. Players do get better.

[Benihana]

redsof72 - Ervin or Yorman, which do you bet on? Or neither?

Also are you ready to give up on Gabriel Rosa?

[redsof72]

It has been too long since I have seen Yorman to have a valid opinion. The only comment I would have on him is that I think too much has been made out of the fact that he is young for his level. In baseball years, Yorman is more like 23. He has been through several seasons, instructional leagues, and spring trainings, and his body was fully developed at 18.

I don't try to predict the future that much anyway. I will tell you what I see today and sprinkle in some comments from scouts or other qualified observers.

Rosa has some tools but is not there yet in terms of baseball skills. I wouldn't say I would give up on anyone but he has a long way to go just to be competitive in A-ball.

This is off topic but might be of interest to some. I asked the same four scouts last night...and all were veteran, seasoned scouts, which of the five Dayton starting pitchers would be the best big leaguer. That's Travieso, Romano, Garrett, Langfield, and Stephens. As I have said many times, there is nowhere near the consensus in baseball circles as is portrayed in the follow the leader media. Of the four, two said Travieso, one said Garrett, and one said it would be Garrett or Romano. They all thought about it for several seconds before answering. Two also said they liked Langfield a lot, but as a reliever.

[dougdirt]

This is off topic but might be of interest to some. I asked the same four scouts last night...and all were veteran, seasoned scouts, which of the five Dayton starting pitchers would be the best big leaguer. That's Travieso, Romano, Garrett, Langfield, and Stephens. As I have said many times, there is nowhere near the consensus in baseball circles as is portrayed in the follow the leader media. Of the four, two said Travieso, one said Garrett, and one said it would be Garrett or Romano. They all thought about it for several seconds before answering. Two also said they liked Langfield a lot, but as a reliever.

The biggest thing for me that separates Travieso from the others in that rotation, is that he shows fastball command far more often than the others do. The organization preaches fastball command as the most important thing (understandable, almost every pitcher in the world throws his fastball more than half of the time). That just gives him a bigger edge on the others for me. With that said, I can certainly understand any of the three that were named being picked. On a given day, any of them can look very, very good.

[Steve4192]

Don't underestimate the importance of confidence in sports. Doesn't matter the sport, having confidence is paramount.

No need to risk hurting this kid's confidence so early in his career. He's fought through enough adversity this year. Give him the call-up to Bakersfield. Plenty of guys move up a level in the minors when they don't necessarily deserve it. But the point here is this is about building up Ervin's confidence, not hurting it. A call-up to Bakersfield can only help.

If his confidence is so fragile that we have to worry about him cracking due to a bad half-season in low A ball, then he'll never make it in the majors anyway. If he can't handle sink-or-swim situations in the minors, he will most definitely not handle them in the majors.

I'm all for protecting guys confidence when they arrive in the majors by giving them favorable platoon matchups and putting them in low pressure slots in the lineup. But if they can't mentally handle slumps in the minors, they don't have they don't have the right stuff between the ears to succeed in the majors anyway.

[Redeyecat]

Sounds like the Reds are really stockpiling potential quality SP. I'm interested to see some of the organization's revised prospect rankings at the end of the year - or even right now if there are any updated ones.

[dougdirt]

Sounds like the Reds are really stockpiling potential quality SP. I'm interested to see some of the organization's revised prospect rankings at the end of the year - or even right now if there are any updated ones.

I had a midseason update about a month ago on my list: http://redsminorleagues.com/2014/06/19/cincinnati-reds-midseason-top-10-prospects/

[Chuckie]

Wow. In one paragraph my hopes in Ervin have been flushed down the toilet.

Thanks for the report, redsof72. Interesting stuff.

You're even more naive than I thought if you are willing to "flush down" all your hopes in a player based on what some random person on the internet posted. But go on with your bad self.

[RedTeamGo!]

You're even more naive than I thought if you are willing to "flush down" all your hopes in a player based on what some random person on the internet posted. But go on with your bad self.

No, I have just been reading redsof72's reports on prospects for years and he tends to very informed and accurate, unlike you.

[RedlegJake]

You're even more naive than I thought if you are willing to "flush down" all your hopes in a player based on what some random person on the internet posted. But go on with your bad self.

Perhaps you should learn who actually sees these kids play and talks to actual scouts, and has first hand info. Most posters (like myself) are just "some random person" but in Doug and Redsof72 we are very fortunate to have 2 guys who spend a lot of time evaluating these guys and have inside info/looks that most of us don't. I listen very closely to their opinions and have come to trust and respect them.

[RedTeamGo!]

Perhaps you should learn who actually sees these kids play and talks to actual scouts, and has first hand info. Most posters (like myself) are just "some random person" but in Doug and Redsof72 we are very fortunate to have 2 guys who spend a lot of time evaluating these guys and have inside info/looks that most of us don't. I listen very closely to their opinions and have come to trust and respect them.

Exactly.

If anyone other than redsof72 or Doug had posted what redsof72 stated I would have been like "meh" but that was not the case.

[M2]

Ervin's batting profile is starting to remind me of Edwin Encarnacion: sick bat speed, struggles with breaking pitches, pull happy swing.

[RED VAN HOT]

I still think there's a chance he will turn things around and become a top prospect. I wish they would just send him to Bakersfield. That's an automatic slump-buster right there.

I have been to Bakersfield. Believe me, the town is crawling in potential slump busters.

[JayBruceFan]

In addition to what 72 said, I would just like to add that I see Ervin a lot and he just looks soft. He doesn't have the look of an elite player with his pedigree. Injury or not, it looks like he mailed it in the off-season and it carried over into the season.

[dougdirt]

In addition to what 72 said, I would just like to add that I see Ervin a lot and he just looks soft. He doesn't have the look of an elite player with his pedigree. Injury or not, it looks like he mailed it in the off-season and it carried over into the season.

Mailed it in? He had wrist surgery and wasn't healthy enough until the spring to do much in terms of training.

[JayBruceFan]

I am well aware of the wrist injury. I'm just saying that there are a lot of things you can do without using your wrist to get into/stay in shape.

[Tom Servo]

I'm just saying that there are a lot of things you can do without using your wrist to get into/stay in shape.
This is a family board.

[Nick_J22]

I'm not even close to calling Ervin a Bust. Given the Reds track record in drafting success the past few years with first rounders I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. Some guys just struggle early on. Look at Mesoraco: Granted he was learning the defensive aspects of a very important position and coming from High School whereas Ervin had College experience. Whatever the Case he had a setback year at A+ and I believe he has been okay ever since. If Ervin was just mailing it in that's one thing. But he was admittedly pressing and struggling with the pressure of being a first round pick. Then you add on wrist surgery as well. If he learns from this Season it can do nothing but help him. I just won't put the bust label on him yet. I worked for the Columbus CLippers for a few years, you wanna see a bust that's Mat Laporta no doubt in my mind. Still Early on Ervin.

[dougdirt]

I am well aware of the wrist injury. I'm just saying that there are a lot of things you can do without using your wrist to get into/stay in shape.

Not much upper body training. I mean I guess you could run and do leg work in the gym.

[RedTeamGo!]

He should have been putting his hand in a bucket of rice and clenching and unclenching his fist.

[HokieRed]

Post AS line developing very nicely: .255/.342/.520/.861. K'ing at a very low rate--roughly 1 in 7 PA--and with 14 W against 16 K's.

[kaldaniels]

Yep, over 1 OPS in his past ten games. The first real "turning of the corner" he's had this year. Keep it up.

[kpresidente]

I figured since everybody's hating on YRod, why not point out an OF prospect who's hitting the cover off the ball.

.340/.404/.638 so far.

Getting a good bounce-back from a 1st-round pick would be a big boost for a system in need of some bats.

[Tom Servo]

Wonder what the plan for Ervin is in regards to advancement if he continues to show off in Daytona. Would be pretty cool to see him and Winker in the same outfield in Pensacola.

[NeilHamburger]

Ervin and Hamilton on the bases would drive pitchers and catchers nuts. I've seen both Hamilton and Ervin in the minors, and Billy is faster, but Ervin reminds me of Larkin on the bases.

Really hope he keeps hitting.

[Chuckie]

Wonder what the plan for Ervin is in regards to advancement if he continues to show off in Daytona. Would be pretty cool to see him and Winker in the same outfield in Pensacola.

An OF of Winker, Ervin and Waldrop? Yes, please. (And yes, I know Waldrop is playing a lot of 1B too to add to his versatility.)

[Tom Servo]

Another leadoff HR today for young Phillip. Yawn.

[RedTeamGo!]

If Ervin goes b-a-n-a-n-a-s bananas this season it would improve the Reds future quite a bit. He can play any outfield position and seems like a perfect 2 hole hitter. Also, and I know people don't like this thought - but, if Billy can't get on base, Ervin could step in and take over CF maybe as soon as next year (Prob 2017 though).

With that said, if Billy figures out how to get on base at a consistent rate, a 1-2 punch of Billy and Ervin at the top of the lineup in front of Votto for years is enough to get one salivating.

It also opens up a bunch of trade possibilities. If Ervin goes off it makes the likes of Waldrop and Yorman expendable if the Reds are in it come the deadline.

Getting way ahead of myself here, though.

[kaldaniels]

If Ervin goes b-a-n-a-n-a-s bananas this season it would improve the Reds future quite a bit. He can play any outfield position and seems like a perfect 2 hole hitter. Also, and I know people don't like this thought - but, if Billy can't get on base, Ervin could step in and take over CF maybe as soon as next year (Prob 2017 though).

With that said, if Billy figures out how to get on base at a consistent rate, a 1-2 punch of Billy and Ervin at the top of the lineup in front of Votto for years is enough to get one salivating.

It also opens up a bunch of trade possibilities. If Ervin goes off it makes the likes of Waldrop and Yorman expendable if the Reds are in it come the deadline.

Getting way ahead of myself here, though.

I'm excited to follow him too. He's a college guy so he could be fast tracked...especially after his lost season.

4 HR in 14 games...over half of his total from last year in 130 some games.

If he ends up a top-50 prospect somehow, that alone should solidly put the Reds with a consensus top-10 minor league system. Rankings going into next year should be shaken up a bit...it seems a lot of top talent is graduating to the bigs this season.

[757690]

Doug kept saying that Ervin's fundamentals were strong, even when he was slumping, so we needed to be patient. Chalk up another one for Doug.

[Rojo]

Doug kept saying that Ervin's fundamentals were strong, even when he was slumping, so we needed to be patient. Chalk up another one for Doug.

He's 1-for=2 (Yorman). ;)

[Steve4192]

I'm going to go ahead and re-post this, since Ervin's hot start in 2015 has fan expectations soaring once again.


Ervin is a perfect illustration of the fickleness of baseball fans.

When he was tearing it up in 2013, he was the greatest thing since sliced bread, but when he stumbled out of the gate in 2014, his bandwagon emptied out in a hurry. Player development is a marathon, not a sprint. A prospect is always going to have highs and lows. Fans need to learn to temper their enthusiasm during the highs and do the same for their disappointment during the lows.

[bellhead]

I'm going to go ahead and re-post this, since Ervin's hot start in 2015 has fan expectations soaring once again.

Wrist injuries for baseball players often take a year to fully head and for the area to regain it's strength. Phil's production is the result of being healthy for the first time in a year.

[Tom Servo]

Ervin didn't have a HR until 5/14 last year, and didn't have 4 (his current total) until 6/21.

[Old school 1983]

I wonder how aggressively they'll promote him if this continues.

[Puffy]

I wonder how aggressively they'll promote him if this continues.

Hopefully not too, too aggressively because I am going to see Daytona on May 30. I believe a June 1st promotion should work for me.

[Edd Roush]

Is princeton used to say: "Challenge thy hittes, coddle thy pitchers."

If Ervin is hitting like this at the minor league All-Star break, he should be promoted to see how he can do in Pensacola.

[dougdirt]

Is princeton used to say: "Challenge thy hittes, coddle thy pitchers."

If Ervin is hitting like this at the minor league All-Star break, he should be promoted to see how he can do in Pensacola.

That's generally how the Reds do it. Midseason promotions for guys that are performing well.

[Old school 1983]

That's generally how the Reds do it. Midseason promotions for guys that are performing well.

Seems right. I forget who made the comment, and obviously it was made awhile back, but I remember someone in the front office saying that Ervin was a guy that could help rapidly within the next year or two. I agree with you on how the Reds usually promote, but that blurb made me think they might push the guy more aggressively than usual.

[Steve4192]

Wrist injuries for baseball players often take a year to fully head and for the area to regain it's strength. Phil's production is the result of being healthy for the first time in a year.

Could be .... or it could be the result of a guy getting off to a hot start. Ervin had his fair share of hot streaks last year too, just not enough to offset his even more frequent icy cold streaks.

[bellhead]

Could be .... or it could be the result of a guy getting off to a hot start. Ervin had his fair share of hot streaks last year too, just not enough to offset his even more frequent icy cold streaks.


I don't think it's a hot streak with his HR tally this year. The HR's indicate he has his wrist strength back.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/finding-clues-to-hitters-wrist-injuries/

good article on it.

[thatcoolguy_22]

Apparently I missed that high A is no longer in Bakersfield. The FSL typically dominates hitters; Ervin's numbers look even better. I'm a fan.

[kaldaniels]

Apparently I missed that high A is no longer in Bakersfield. The FSL typically dominates hitters; Ervin's numbers look even better. I'm a fan.

The Milb App has apparently missed that as well. I keep getting notifications on the Blaze. Is there a fix?

[Kc61]

Ervin made BA's Prospect Hot Sheet. Not sure if already reported.

[RedEye]

Winker and Ervin looking like the replacements for Bruce and Byrd at this point...

[Steve4192]

Winker and Ervin looking like the replacements for Bruce and Byrd at this point...

C'mon now. Let's be consistent. If we are going to get hyped over Ervin's fast start, we have to freak out about Winker's slow start. You can't have it both ways.

[kaldaniels]

C'mon now. Let's be consistent. If we are going to get hyped over Ervin's fast start, we have to freak out about Winker's slow start. You can't have it both ways.

Winker at like .675 OPS. Not good. But not Mensoza-ish.

Ervin is OPSing over 1.

I'm much more happy about Ervin than I am worried about Winker right now. .675 happens over a few week stretch.

[Steve4192]

Winker at like .675 OPS. Not good. But not Mensoza-ish.

Ervin is OPSing over 1.

I'm much more happy about Ervin than I am worried about Winker right now. .675 happens over a few week stretch.

OPS over 1 also happens over a few week stretch.

That was my point. I am not worried about Winker, but I am also not super-enthusiastic about Ervin's hot start. There are plenty of guys who post an OPS over 1 for a couple of weeks in July and no one notices, because their April-June numbers mute the impact on their overall stats.

[JaxRed]

I've learned from experience.... experience has taught me that the old "it takes a year to fully recover" theory doesn't hold water. So, I'm still of the opinion that this is just a hot streak for Ervin and he will be who he was last year.

And I'm starting to be concerned with Stephenson and Winker. Based on both last year's and this year's AA results.

[Tom Servo]

I've learned from experience.... experience has taught me that the old "it takes a year to fully recover" theory doesn't hold water. So, I'm still of the opinion that this is just a hot streak for Ervin and he will be who he was last year.

Could you expand on this more? You really think a prospect has a bad year and it's over, that's who they are? Or are you just not a believer in Ervin for whatever reason?

[UPRedsFan]

I've learned from experience.... experience has taught me that the old "it takes a year to fully recover" theory doesn't hold water. So, I'm still of the opinion that this is just a hot streak for Ervin and he will be who he was last year.

And I'm starting to be concerned with Stephenson and Winker. Based on both last year's and this year's AA results.

Winker had a few o-fers is all. He's 6 for 17 with 2 home runs in the last 4 games. He's gonna get rolling.

[JaxRed]

Could you expand on this more? You really think a prospect has a bad year and it's over, that's who they are? Or are you just not a believer in Ervin for whatever reason?

There have simply been too many cases of the "it takes a year" to fully heal stories. Remember how Yonder Alonso was going to hit for power but it would take a full year after his hamate surgery? Well guess what? It wasn't because it takes a year, it's because Yonder ain't a power hitter.

A few years ago, 2nd rounder Lamarre had an ankle injury, and I think some relative posted that the ankle bothered him all year and next year he would be kicking it.... Well, it wasn't the ankle.... Lamarre just wasn't very good.

If you re-read the Ervin threads from last year every time he got hot for a short time it was "he's finally healed", and then he would cool off again.

So.....although there are rare exceptions, experience has shown me that if a player really had a bad season.....it's probably just that the player is not all that special. I hope I'm wrong, I hope Ervin comes storming back this year. Because I think the overall talent level in the Red's system is bad. We could use him. And I was very excited when we drafted him because he wasn't in the mold of the "all around solid guy, with no great tool". I am so tired of the Gelalich, Ryan Wright, Lamarre, Brodie Green, Devin Lohman types. Give me some guys with upside...

[RedEye]

C'mon now. Let's be consistent. If we are going to get hyped over Ervin's fast start, we have to freak out about Winker's slow start. You can't have it both ways.

Why not? I think Winker will bounce back and I have long been convinced that Ervin's injury was what held him back in 2014.