How many Runs?

[Raisor]

The Reds won today. They scored 5 runs. Let's take a minute and dance.


Everyone done? Krono?


Reds are averaging 4.6 runs a game. They are on pace to score 746 runs this year.

All that to say, how many runs a game should the team be scoring? If you look around the board you can find all sorts of posts complaining about the offense.

Ok, so how many should they be scoring?

[dougdirt]

How many runs should the Reds be scoring?

More than their opponent.

Duh.

[RedEye]

Third in the NL in runs scored seems good enough to me. Sounds like a team that should play .600 ball if the pitching is also good. Which it is.

[Roush's socks]

The reds are playing great at .600 pctg. The bullpen has been the weakest link this year.

[Raisor]

Let me give an example with what I'm talking about:

Team scores 4-5 runs in the early innings. None the rest. Pitching gives up 6 loses the game. At that point we get post after post complaining the offense took the night off.

Same thing happens but they scatter the runs over the 9 innings and nary a word.

What's the difference?

[RedEye]

There is no real difference -- only perception.

[New York Red]

How many runs should the Reds be scoring?

More than their opponent.

Duh.
Exactly. What they average per game isn't as important as when they score them.

[New York Red]

Team scores 4-5 runs in the early innings. None the rest. Pitching gives up 6 loses the game. At that point we get post after post complaining the offense took the night off.
Link?

[RedFanAlways1966]

Let me give an example with what I'm talking about:

Team scores 4-5 runs in the early innings. None the rest. Pitching gives up 6 loses the game. At that point we get post after post complaining the offense took the night off.

Same thing happens but they scatter the runs over the 9 innings and nary a word.

What's the difference?

Never ANY EXCUSE for going eight straight innings w/out a run. Especially against a bullpen that combined could not hit the broad side of Cooperstown when standing 10 feet from it (nor any city that starts with the letter "C"... Chicago, Cincy, Cairo). Well, being human and crap happens to all teams is an excuse.

[westofyou]

Let me give an example with what I'm talking about:

Team scores 4-5 runs in the early innings. None the rest. Pitching gives up 6 loses the game. At that point we get post after post complaining the offense took the night off.

Same thing happens but they scatter the runs over the 9 innings and nary a word.

What's the difference?

The game doesn't happen on a spreadsheet if a team scores 5 runs in one inning of a 14 inning game and then they get 2 hits and 2 walks from inning 8-14 you bet your butt people will complain, and chances are it will not matter to them that the Reds achieved the team's average in runs scored by game.

[Roy Tucker]

Let me give an example with what I'm talking about:

Team scores 4-5 runs in the early innings. None the rest. Pitching gives up 6 loses the game. At that point we get post after post complaining the offense took the night off.

Same thing happens but they scatter the runs over the 9 innings and nary a word.

What's the difference?

Winning.

Losing eats worms. Winning is a Jeff Ruby steak.

[Steve4192]

Winning.

Losing eats worms. Winning is a Jeff Ruby steak.

Meh.

Jeff Ruby is old and full of gristle. I don't think I would want a Jeff Ruby steak. A Jeff Ruby shepherd's pie would be preferable.

[edabbs44]

Let me give an example with what I'm talking about:

Team scores 4-5 runs in the early innings. None the rest. Pitching gives up 6 loses the game. At that point we get post after post complaining the offense took the night off.

Same thing happens but they scatter the runs over the 9 innings and nary a word.

What's the difference?

Everything being equal, not much. But the details could matter. If I watch the Reds fatten on awful relief pitchers and get shut down by better pitching, averaging out to a solid batting line, that might matter more than other scenarios. Especially when looking towards October.

[Roy Tucker]

Meh.

Jeff Ruby is old and full of gristle. I don't think I would want a Jeff Ruby steak. A Jeff Ruby shepherd's pie would be preferable.

Ok, that works too. I'm sure woy would like a nicely seasoned fried tofu.

But losing is a plateful of worms with a piquant sauce of boogers and snot.

[BCubb2003]

This thread seems to be going in two distinct directions.

Fans pay a lot of attention to situational hitting. Maybe too much. But sometimes good overall numbers can hide a weakness that can be exploited when it matters.

Still, who wouldn't want the Reds' numbers right now? Except the Cardinals, and they'd want them too most years.

[RedEye]

Never ANY EXCUSE for going eight straight innings w/out a run. Especially against a bullpen that combined could not hit the broad side of Cooperstown when standing 10 feet from it (nor any city that starts with the letter "C"... Chicago, Cincy, Cairo). Well, being human and crap happens to all teams is an excuse.

"Being human" is not an excuse? Please explain.

[RedlegJake]

4.6 runs averages to a run every other inning. I want a run every 2d inning or else I'm not happy. Scoring 5 in the first and then stopping doesn't cut it with me. Why do those guys bunch up their scoring like that? Just to tick me off? See if I buy another Votto bobblehead! He has too many bobbleheads which is probably where his head is. And BP needs to quit driving in half the available runners. If he wasn't spacing out he would drive all of them in. His head must be bobbled up with Joeys. And we need a leadoff hitter who isn't so lazy. All he does is walk everywhere! At least Cozart won t be a problem once Walt DFAs him. Izturis too while he's at it. Then Leake can finally play SS where he belongs. He played there in his first year of Pony baseball you. Lil mustang shortsop Mikey. Then get Bruce to do something, him and his lousy. 900+ OPS. But how many strikeouts does he have, huh? I'd trade all his chintzy homers for forty fewer strikeouts! So that there is my analysis. Two bobbleheads...two dfa'd SS...a leadoff hitter who runs darnit-all that walking-small wonder he gets hit so much...all that walking everywhere has dulled his synaptic responses ya know?Take away the bats and give em all toothpicks. That's what Hank Aaron did once. Jeez this bud black label has got me tired...I think I'll Choo to the bedroom n take me a BP snooze...

[WildcatFan]

How many runs should the Reds be scoring?

More than their opponent.

Duh.

Bingo. And this happens a lot. They're the second-best team in the game at that stat. Partly because of averaging 4.6 runs per game. Partly because of giving up only about 3.7 runs per. Those numbers translate extremely well in the win/loss columns.

[dougdirt]

"Being human" is not an excuse? Please explain.

It is pretty simple actually: Being a robot is better.

[WildcatFan]

4.6 runs averages to a run every other inning. I want a run every 2d inning or else I'm not happy. Scoring 5 in the first and then stopping doesn't cut it with me. Why do those guys bunch up their scoring like that? Just to tick me off? See if I buy another Votto bobblehead! He has too many bobbleheads which is probably where his head is. And BP needs to quit driving in half the available runners. If he wasn't spacing out he would drive all of them in. His head must be bobbled up with Joeys. And we need a leadoff hitter who isn't so lazy. All he does is walk everywhere! At least Cozart won t be a problem once Walt DFAs him. Izturis too while he's at it. Then Leake can finally play SS where he belongs. He played there in his first year of Pony baseball you. Lil mustang shortsop Mikey. Then get Bruce to do something, him and his lousy. 900+ OPS. But how many strikeouts does he have, huh? I'd trade all his chintzy homers for forty fewer strikeouts! So that there is my analysis. Two bobbleheads...two dfa'd SS...a leadoff hitter who runs darnit-all that walking-small wonder he gets hit so much...all that walking everywhere has dulled his synaptic responses ya know?Take away the bats and give em all toothpicks. That's what Hank Aaron did once. Jeez this bud black label has got me tired...I think I'll Choo to the bedroom n take me a BP snooze...

I must say, this was just weird enough for me to love.

[BCubb2003]

Scoring runs then going to sleep is probably a sign of a not-so-deep lineup. If the few good hitters appear in the same inning, like in the first, they can score runs. But if most innings are led into or led out of by weaker hitters, then it's tough. The Mesoracos and Lutzes have to come up with big hits.

[RedEye]

Scoring runs then going to sleep is probably a sign of a not-so-deep lineup. If the few good hitters appear in the same inning, like in the first, they can score runs. But if most innings are led into or led out of by weaker hitters, then it's tough. The Mesoracos and Lutzes have to come up with big hits.

But the team is third in the NL in runs! Realistically, it is hard to imagine a much more productive lineup in the grand scheme of things. Are you just claiming that the runs could be better distributed across innings? If that's the case, I'm not sure what would be accomplished. More runs? Yes, I'm on board. Better distributed runs? Hard to figure, even more difficult to accomplish.

[WildcatFan]

Those that are frustrated with run production throughout a game, where should the Reds be, record-wise? They trail only the Dirty Birds in either league, so should the offense realistically have gotten them five more wins? Two more? Eight more? Am I missing the point?

[BCubb2003]

But the team is third in the NL in runs! Realistically, it is hard to imagine a much more productive lineup in the grand scheme of things. Are you just claiming that the runs could be better distributed across innings? If that's the case, I'm not sure what would be accomplished. More runs? Yes, I'm on board. Better distributed runs? Hard to figure, even more difficult to accomplish.

Yes, as I said earlier, who wouldn't want those numbers? But the situational fan sees the four runs scored early, braces for the notorious eighth inning, and watches the other team's decent but not overpowering bullpen pick its way through the Cozarts and Fraziers. The sentiment does seem odd given the success the Reds have had this year. If the Cardinals weren't playing over their heads, it wouldn't be an issue. But sometimes it's an exploitable hole in head-to-head competition.

[RedEye]

Yes, as I said earlier, who wouldn't want those numbers? But the situational fan sees the four runs scored early, braces for the notorious eighth inning, and watches the other team's decent but not overpowering bullpen pick its way through the Cozarts and Fraziers. The sentiment does seem odd given the success the Reds have had this year. If the Cardinals weren't playing over their heads, it wouldn't be an issue. But sometimes it's an exploitable hole in head-to-head competition.

Okay, maybe I misread your intention with the post. My bad. We seem to be on the same page.

[Kcbuckeye22]

4.6 runs averages to a run every other inning. I want a run every 2d inning or else I'm not happy. Scoring 5 in the first and then stopping doesn't cut it with me. Why do those guys bunch up their scoring like that? Just to tick me off? See if I buy another Votto bobblehead! He has too many bobbleheads which is probably where his head is. And BP needs to quit driving in half the available runners. If he wasn't spacing out he would drive all of them in. His head must be bobbled up with Joeys. And we need a leadoff hitter who isn't so lazy. All he does is walk everywhere! At least Cozart won t be a problem once Walt DFAs him. Izturis too while he's at it. Then Leake can finally play SS where he belongs. He played there in his first year of Pony baseball you. Lil mustang shortsop Mikey. Then get Bruce to do something, him and his lousy. 900+ OPS. But how many strikeouts does he have, huh? I'd trade all his chintzy homers for forty fewer strikeouts! So that there is my analysis. Two bobbleheads...two dfa'd SS...a leadoff hitter who runs darnit-all that walking-small wonder he gets hit so much...all that walking everywhere has dulled his synaptic responses ya know?Take away the bats and give em all toothpicks. That's what Hank Aaron did once. Jeez this bud black label has got me tired...I think I'll Choo to the bedroom n take me a BP snooze...


I must say, this was just weird enough for me to love.

LOL. I was thinking the same thing.

[Raisor]

The game doesn't happen on a spreadsheet if a team scores 5 runs in one inning of a 14 inning game and then they get 2 hits and 2 walks from inning 8-14 you bet your butt people will complain, and chances are it will not matter to them that the Reds achieved the team's average in runs scored by game.

I'm going to use one of your favorite quotes:

Baseball is hard.

[D-Man]

One of the benefits of getting to a starting pitcher earlier is that allows the offense to face the soft underbelly (i.e., middle relief) of the other team more quickly and for longer durations. My expectation is that, in general, the offense should be performing better in the later innings. But so far, the opposite has been true. Per ESPN, the Reds' offense has an overall OPS of .728, but only has an OPS of .711 in innings 7 and beyond.

So getting ahead early hasn't really helped the team, as one should expect.

Some of that variance may be randomness. . . But perhaps not all of it is. Dusty may be too hasty with his late-inning defensive substitutions. Clearly, the offense has run themselves out of innings on the basepaths this year, and that seems to cost them several big innings, if not wins/losses. Some hitters may be employing a more conservative approach at the plate when ahead--perhaps they are instructed to do so. There may be some complacency in some of the hitters when getting ahead that early.

My view is that this is neither a problem nor a non-issue. But it warrants attention as the season progresses.

[WildcatFan]

The Reds' offense has an overall OPS of .728, but only has an OPS of .711 in innings 7 and beyond.

This really isn't that drastic of a difference.


So getting ahead early hasn't really helped the team, as one should expect.

Serious question, no snark, what do you mean by this? I may be missing how it corresponds the the first part.

[D-Man]

This really isn't that drastic of a difference.



Serious question, no snark, what do you mean by this? I may be missing how it corresponds the the first part.

My point is that the offensive performance in innings 7+ is not independent of offensive performance in innings 1-6. If you get to your opponent early and knock the starter out of the game, then it increases the likelihood that you will be facing the other team's middle relievers (i.e., worst pitchers) more frequently and for longer durations. You should expect that your offense would perform better against your opponent's worst pitchers, but it appears that the opposite is true of the Reds.

By my quick math, the Reds have a .738 OPS in innings 1-6 (would be 3rd in NL), but a .711 OPS in innings 7+ (would be 7th). As I said earlier, it may be randomness, but it could indicate a problem.

[The Operator]

4.6 runs averages to a run every other inning. I want a run every 2d inning or else I'm not happy. Scoring 5 in the first and then stopping doesn't cut it with me. Why do those guys bunch up their scoring like that? Just to tick me off? See if I buy another Votto bobblehead! He has too many bobbleheads which is probably where his head is. And BP needs to quit driving in half the available runners. If he wasn't spacing out he would drive all of them in. His head must be bobbled up with Joeys. And we need a leadoff hitter who isn't so lazy. All he does is walk everywhere! At least Cozart won t be a problem once Walt DFAs him. Izturis too while he's at it. Then Leake can finally play SS where he belongs. He played there in his first year of Pony baseball you. Lil mustang shortsop Mikey. Then get Bruce to do something, him and his lousy. 900+ OPS. But how many strikeouts does he have, huh? I'd trade all his chintzy homers for forty fewer strikeouts! So that there is my analysis. Two bobbleheads...two dfa'd SS...a leadoff hitter who runs darnit-all that walking-small wonder he gets hit so much...all that walking everywhere has dulled his synaptic responses ya know?Take away the bats and give em all toothpicks. That's what Hank Aaron did once. Jeez this bud black label has got me tired...I think I'll Choo to the bedroom n take me a BP snooze...One of the best posts all year. Well played, sir. :beerme:

[RedFanAlways1966]

"Being human" is not an excuse? Please explain.

Oh, it is definitely an excuse. Just sarcasm on my part! During a 162 game schedule bad things will happen and they happen to all teams. I get over these things pretty quickly and others should too. It makes for a less stressful fan lol.

[membengal]

I would expect the team OPS for most teams to be worse in innings 7-9 than earlier in the game. Fresh arms from the pen, and some of the best arms on every club are held for those innings. I find nothing remotely alarming about a lower team OPS in those situations. Especially one that is as close as the earlier cited Reds OPS stat.

[blumj]

The highest team OPS in MLB for 7th inning or later is .761, there are 4 MLB teams with an overall OPS over .761 and 9 with an OPS higher for innings 1-6.

[traderumor]

Let me give an example with what I'm talking about:

Team scores 4-5 runs in the early innings. None the rest. Pitching gives up 6 loses the game. At that point we get post after post complaining the offense took the night off.

Same thing happens but they scatter the runs over the 9 innings and nary a word.

What's the difference?

I've been thinking the same thing when the team jumps on a starter early. He gets removed for an off night, or like one day a guy turned out to be injured, and the bullpen arms are on that day. The real issue seems to be that some will not accept the randomness of the game, watch it on a day to day basis, and expect a predictable pattern of logical sequence, if A happens, then B has to follow, right? Then, when it doesn't happen that way, it has to be somebody's fault.