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Vottomatic
06-17-2013, 02:35 PM
I got all 4 minor league teams' stats on my favorites links, and used to like to check them out like once a week.

Is it just me or does it seem like the Reds farm system has gone in the tank?

Dayton - Stephenson, Travieso and Winker and that's pretty much it.
Bakersfield - maybe Muhammad (reliever) and Selsky?
Pensacola - Sharky Rogers
Louisville - Hamilton

RedTeamGo!
06-17-2013, 03:04 PM
I got all 4 minor league teams' stats on my favorites links, and used to like to check them out like once a week.

Is it just me or does it seem like the Reds farm system has gone in the tank?

Dayton - Stephenson, Travieso and Winker and that's pretty much it.
Bakersfield - maybe Muhammad (reliever) and Selsky?
Pensacola - Sharky Rogers
Louisville - Hamilton

Are you basing this off of their current stats only?

There are some players that project decently but they are not putting up the numbers yet. Also, as a result of injuries Cingrani and Lutz are up with the Reds that should be on the farm now.

I think any time you can list off multiple players in the minors for your team that not only project to contribute to the MLB team, but project to be very good (winker, travieso, hamilton, cingrani) to elite major leaguers (stephenson) the farm is not in the tank.

Steve4192
06-17-2013, 07:23 PM
Based on team records, there sure doesn't seem to be a lot of talent down on the farm.

28-41 Dayton
29-41 Bakersfield
25-43 Pensacola
35-35 Louisville

The only team that isn't flat-out awful is AAA Louisville, and that is mostly due to fringe AAAA veterans who are in their late 20s or 30s rather than the youngsters.

Steve4192
06-17-2013, 07:27 PM
I think any time you can list off multiple players in the minors for your team that not only project to contribute to the MLB team, but project to be very good (winker, travieso, hamilton, cingrani) to elite major leaguers (stephenson) the farm is not in the tank.


Every team has promising recent high draft picks in the low minors. That is why they were high draft picks. Stephenson, Cingrani and Hamilton are the only guys on that list that are stone-cold locks to be in every team's top 10 prospects list.

dougdirt
06-17-2013, 07:29 PM
Neh

Every team has promising recent high draft picks in the low minors. That is why they were high draft picks. Stephenson, Cingrani and Hamilton are the only guys on that list that are stone-cold locks to be in every team's top 10 prospects list.

I find it hard to believe someone has 10 better prospects than Jesse Winker, no matter how you choose to look at your prospects.

Steve4192
06-17-2013, 07:57 PM
I find it hard to believe someone has 10 better prospects than Jesse Winker, no matter how you choose to look at your prospects.

I like Winker, but most scouts view him as a bad-bodied non-athlete who brings nothing to the table other than his bat. They aren't even sure if he can stick in LF.

LoganBuck
06-17-2013, 08:12 PM
I like Winker, but most scouts view him as a bad-bodied non-athlete who brings nothing to the table other than his bat. They aren't even sure if he can stick in LF.

Are these the scouts from "Trouble with the.curve"?

dougdirt
06-17-2013, 09:56 PM
I like Winker, but most scouts view him as a bad-bodied non-athlete who brings nothing to the table other than his bat. They aren't even sure if he can stick in LF.

I have never seen anyone suggest he can't stick in left field.

The guy was a top 50 pick in the entire draft. Scouts clearly weren't that concerned about his "non-athleteness".

19braves77
06-18-2013, 01:14 AM
I find it hard to believe someone has 10 better prospects than Jesse Winker, no matter how you choose to look at your prospects.

Twins very easily.

lollipopcurve
06-18-2013, 08:37 AM
System is pretty weak these days.

One legitimate SP prospect.

Hamilton -- could be electric if the bat comes along.

One hitter -- Winker. (There's also Lutz, who I consider a legit prospect.)

After that, some maybes. No starting SS or C prospects.

Peaks and valleys. The system has been very fruitful lately. Now the trees are a little bare. Hopefully there are a couple players in this 2013 draft class and they can do better in Latin America than they have recently.

Edd Roush
06-18-2013, 09:31 AM
System is pretty weak these days.

One legitimate SP prospect.

Hamilton -- could be electric if the bat comes along.

One hitter -- Winker. (There's also Lutz, who I consider a legit prospect.)

After that, some maybes. No starting SS or C prospects.

Peaks and valleys. The system has been very fruitful lately. Now the trees are a little bare. Hopefully there are a couple players in this 2013 draft class and they can do better in Latin America than they have recently.

Nick Traveioso is a very solid pitching prospect.

I know his numbers don't show it, but I expect good things from Tanner Rahier.

I also like Tucker Barnhart a lot as a catching prospect. I definitely think he has a solid shot of starting in the majors (albeit as a plattoon player).

Chad Rogers has done a lot for his prospect stock this year and could be a solid back of the rotation guy in just a year or two.

I'm not sure what has gotten into Daniel Corcino this year, but I'm not giving up on him after 57 innings.

Sure, the Reds farm system is not at its peak, but that is because we have graduated a lot of talent and traded a lot of talent in the last few years. I think we will look back at the farm 5 years from now and see that we had quite a few big league players down on the farm in mid 2013. This isn't even counting the guys we just drafted who could make an impact.

HokieRed
06-18-2013, 09:48 AM
We've got a not-yet-twenty-one year old at High A ball whose extra base hits as a percentage of total base hits is 53%. That makes Yorman Rodriguez, to me at least, worth mention among the interesting, developing stories in our system.

lollipopcurve
06-18-2013, 09:52 AM
Not giving up on anybody. I have as much hope as anyone when it comes to the farm -- been following it closely for 30 years. This is just a valley relative to what the farm has been recently. Go back to the Bowden years and 2013 looks very promising by comparison.

Several guys I call maybes could blossom -- Yorman, Reynoso, Ervin, Arias, Rahier, Travieso, Garrett, and more. Plenty of upside, down there. But none of these guys has proven it on the field yet. And there's always the guys who will make a run at being helpful utility players or bullpen arms -- I don't underestimate their value either.

Hopefully we see some better performance in the second half.

RedTeamGo!
06-18-2013, 09:54 AM
28-41 Dayton
29-41 Bakersfield
25-43 Pensacola
35-35 Louisville



Maybe it is just me but this is about as meaningless as it gets with regards to looking at individual prospect talent.

RedTeamGo!
06-18-2013, 09:56 AM
Not giving up on anybody. I have as much hope as anyone when it comes to the farm -- been following it closely for 30 years. This is just a valley relative to what the farm has been recently. Go back to the Bowden years and 2013 looks very promising by comparison.

Several guys I call maybes could blossom -- Yorman, Reynoso, Ervin, Arias, Rahier, Travieso, Garrett, and more. Plenty of upside, down there. But none of these guys has proven it on the field yet. And there's always the guys who will make a run at being helpful utility players or bullpen arms -- I don't underestimate their value either.

Hopefully we see some better performance in the second half.

Yorman seems to be putting up very solid numbers for a 20 year old at high A.

20 doubles/4 triples/9 homers - I think this is a very good sign for a young player in the minors.

lollipopcurve
06-18-2013, 10:44 AM
Yorman seems to be putting up very solid numbers for a 20 year old at high A.

20 doubles/4 triples/9 homers - I think this is a very good sign for a young player in the minors.

I like Yorman as much as anyone. He's probably the most interesting prospect in the system, and I agree that he is trending in the right direction. But there are still holes in his game. Remember that the California League is very hitter friendly. So, while Yorman's EBH numbers are great, and encouraging, he's being helped by the environment. If the K rate starts to come down and the average starts to climb, he can get closer to losing that "maybe" status for me.

Personally, I'd like to see him moved to LF, where the organization has something of a hole. His power RH bat also fits well with what the big club needs. In that he's now on the 40-man, they're going to have to push his progress. I wouldn't mind seeing him in AA at some point in the second half.

I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic about Yorman.

SirFelixCat
06-18-2013, 10:49 AM
I like Yorman as much as anyone. He's probably the most interesting prospect in the system, and I agree that he is trending in the right direction. But there are still holes in his game. Remember that the California League is very hitter friendly. So, while Yorman's EBH numbers are great, and encouraging, he's being helped by the environment. If the K rate starts to come down and the average starts to climb, he can get closer to losing that "maybe" status for me.

Personally, I'd like to see him moved to LF, where the organization has something of a hole. His power RH bat also fits well with what the big club needs. In that he's now on the 40-man, they're going to have to push his progress. I wouldn't mind seeing him in AA at some point in the second half.

I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic about Yorman.

He is 20 and in High-A. Man, you're tough on grading in that case. Oof.

lollipopcurve
06-18-2013, 10:55 AM
He is 20 and in High-A. Man, you're tough on grading in that case. Oof.

If you think Yorman is a sure thing, you're mistaken.

HokieRed
06-18-2013, 12:03 PM
If you think Yorman is a sure thing, you're mistaken.

I agree he's very far from a sure thing, and the environment is certainly a factor. But nobody else on the team has 40% of their hits for extra bases. Yorman's currently at 53%. His K's are still too high, both as a percentage of his AB's and in relation to his W's. But after his disaster at Bakersfield last year, it's very heartening to see this year's numbers. High percentage of EBH's, trending in the right direction, young for the level, enormous talent. I like it.

lollipopcurve
06-18-2013, 12:06 PM
I agree he's very far from a sure thing, and the environment is certainly a factor. But nobody else on the team has 40% of their hits for extra bases. Yorman's currently at 53%. His K's are still too high, both as a percentage of his AB's and in relation to his W's. But after his disaster at Bakersfield last year, it's very heartening to see this year's numbers. High percentage of EBH's, trending in the right direction, young for the level, enormous talent. I like it.

Agreed on all counts.

thatcoolguy_22
06-18-2013, 12:40 PM
I like Winker, but most scouts view him as a bad-bodied non-athlete who brings nothing to the table other than his bat. They aren't even sure if he can stick in LF.

Thankfully he can do the hardest part of playing baseball then. In a world where Mike Morse can man LF, Winker will be more than adequate.

Steve4192
06-18-2013, 12:46 PM
Maybe it is just me but this is about as meaningless as it gets with regards to looking at individual prospect talent.

The AAA record doesn't mean much (since every team loads up on old guys at AAA), but those other records certainly do. They indicate depth of talent.

If the Reds farmhands are consistently getting walloped by other teams farmhands, that says something about their talent level. Talented teams generally win. Sure, there might a few good players scattered around those awful Reds farm clubs, but they are clearly fewer and farther between than they are for other clubs in the same league.

bellhead
06-18-2013, 01:54 PM
I think Yorman was injured for about a week in the middle of the season and his game suffered for about two weeks after the injury. I think it took him about two weeks to fully recover and get his groove back on. Over the last 10 games he has been smoking hot. Honestly the jury is out on him, if he rakes like he has over the last 10 games then he'll move to AA. At AA we'll see if he is a true prospect or not as that's the level which separate's the boys from men.

RedTeamGo!
06-18-2013, 01:59 PM
The AAA record doesn't mean much (since every team loads up on old guys at AAA), but those other records certainly do. They indicate depth of talent.

If the Reds farmhands are consistently getting walloped by other teams farmhands, that says something about their talent level. Talented teams generally win. Sure, there might a few good players scattered around those awful Reds farm clubs, but they are clearly fewer and farther between than they are for other clubs in the same league.

So, basically you expect any given ML farm team to have the majority of the players on the team be major league caliber?

In my opinion if you have 10 major league prospects spread across your entire minor league organization you are sitting pretty (most likely with 10 legit prospects you are a top org in the league).

Let's say an org has 10 legit prospects spread out between 5 teams equally. That would be 2 legit players on each team. 2 players are most likely not going to make a big difference in the win/loss department.

Steve4192
06-18-2013, 03:00 PM
So, basically you expect any given ML farm team to have the majority of the players on the team be major league caliber?

In my opinion if you have 10 major league prospects spread across your entire minor league organization you are sitting pretty (most likely with 10 legit prospects you are a top org in the league).

Let's say an org has 10 legit prospects spread out between 5 teams equally. That would be 2 legit players on each team. 2 players are most likely not going to make a big difference in the win/loss department.

There are a lot more 10 potential major leaguers in any given farm system. There might only be one or two guys who project as all-stars, but every system needs to have it's fair share of platoon players, situational relievers, defensive replacements, mopup/swing relievers, etc. You need enough guys with the potential to play in the majors to cover the ridiculous attrition rate of prospects. For every prospect that pans out, you are going to have half-a-dozen who don't.

Teams don't stock their AA and low minors clubs with guys they don't think have any chance of helping their major league squad. They know that most of them will wash out, but every guy on the lower level teams is there because they think he has a chance of being useful in the majors. Not great. Just useful.

Farm systems that produce major league talent are also generally successful in the win/loss column. Just look at the Reds farm system when Votto-Bruce-Cueto-Bailey were coming up, or when Dunn-Kearns-Encarnacion were coming up. Those guys all played on a number of very successful minor league teams, due in no small part to their own contributions. Take a look at any farm system that has produced a lot of major leaguers and you will see that there is a lot of winning going on. The fact that the AA/A+/A teams are all not just mediocre, but flat-out awful says something about the talent on those teams.

REDREAD
06-18-2013, 03:08 PM
This seems a pretty harsh indictment on the farm.

Look at this year: Cingrani, Lutz, Patsh, and Robinson have all contributed to some degree. In other words, they were not totally useless when called up.

Look also in recent history.. plenty of youngsters coming up and playing roles at the big league level.

We're a winning team now. We're no longer getting a top 10 draft pick that will get drooled over.. The team is drafting fine. The minor league system appears to be a little bit thin because so many of them have made it to the bigs or have been traded for ML talent.

HokieRed
06-18-2013, 03:19 PM
I think Yorman was injured for about a week in the middle of the season and his game suffered for about two weeks after the injury. I think it took him about two weeks to fully recover and get his groove back on. Over the last 10 games he has been smoking hot. Honestly the jury is out on him, if he rakes like he has over the last 10 games then he'll move to AA. At AA we'll see if he is a true prospect or not as that's the level which separate's the boys from men.

The last is always said about the levels, but as somebody who sees a lot of high A failures who were good at low A ball, I can tell you that the move from the one to the other is also a real separator.

Steve4192
06-18-2013, 03:21 PM
This seems a pretty harsh indictment on the farm.


I'm not indicting the player development system at all. The current administration of the Reds have done a fantastic job recently of bringing along young talent. I'm merely arguing that the farm is not in a good place RIGHT NOW, due in large part to their recent success at graduating guys to the major leagues and flipping prospects for major league talent.

I also think there are more than a few fans wearing rose-colored glasses when it comes to the current state of the Reds farm system. There is not a lot of talent down there right now. I have total faith that the Reds player development folks will turn it around in due course, but right now the Reds farm system is in the bottom half of the majors, maybe even the bottom third.

HokieRed
06-18-2013, 03:33 PM
One problem with evaluating minor league systems by won lost records is that the easiest way to win in the minor leagues is to mix your few prospects with experienced, perennial--and very accomplished--minor league players. I'd want, at the very least, to run the ages of all our rosters versus those of everybody else in the respective leagues before drawing any conclusions even about whether our teams are any good, not to mention the individuals themselves.

Steve4192
06-18-2013, 04:25 PM
One problem with evaluating minor league systems by won lost records is that the easiest way to win in the minor leagues is to mix your few prospects with experienced, perennial--and very accomplished--minor league players.

That is pretty much limited to AAA. It happens to a small degree in AA and very rarely in A ball or rookie ball.

bellhead
06-18-2013, 04:38 PM
The last is always said about the levels, but as somebody who sees a lot of high A failures who were good at low A ball, I can tell you that the move from the one to the other is also a real separator.

Pitching at AA is on a whole different level than low/high A....

M2
06-18-2013, 05:07 PM
It's been a bumpy season so far for the farm. Too many guys struggling, very few enjoying any kind of breakthrough. I doubt the Reds are happy with the way this season is going, and I suspect they'll be cutting bait on a number of kids as the season progresses.

The good news:

Stephenson and Winker. Maybe Carlos Contreras too. He's pitching well in the Cali League. That merits at least a little bit of excitement. Felix Perez looks like he might be a useful bench OF in the majors. Yorman Rodriguez is showing flashes. Tucker Barnhart looks like he indeed may have enough bat to stick in the bigs as a backup catcher.

The bad news:

Corcino has been a complete flop. At this point I'd just declare him injured so I could send him to a shrink, or a shaman or an exorcist. Hamilton's still trying to adjust to AAA. Hopefully he emerges stronger from the experience, but his star has dimmed a bit. Ryan LaMarre is officially not a prospect. Almost every bat in Bakersfield has tanked. Jeff Gelalich is showing no power. Tanner Rahier is looking pretty terrible. Nick Travieso is just sort of meh so far (small sample, so hopefully that improves).

RedTeamGo!
06-18-2013, 05:19 PM
It's been a bumpy season so far for the farm. Too many guys struggling, very few enjoying any kind of breakthrough. I doubt the Reds are happy with the way this season is going, and I suspect they'll be cutting bait on a number of kids as the season progresses.

The good news:

Stephenson and Winker. Maybe Carlos Contreras too. He's pitching well in the Cali League. That merits at least a little bit of excitement. Felix Perez looks like he might be a useful bench OF in the majors. Yorman Rodriguez is showing flashes. Tucker Barnhart looks like he indeed may have enough bat to stick in the bigs as a backup catcher.

The bad news:

Corcino has been a complete flop. At this point I'd just declare him injured so I could send him to a shrink, or a shaman or an exorcist. Hamilton's still trying to adjust to AAA. Hopefully he emerges stronger from the experience, but his star has dimmed a bit. Ryan LaMarre is officially not a prospect. Almost every bat in Bakersfield has tanked. Jeff Gelalich is showing no power. Tanner Rahier is looking pretty terrible. Nick Travieso is just sort of meh so far (small sample, so hopefully that improves).

Ryan LaMarre tweeted last night "baseball is the most humbling sport on earth"

Gotta love the confidence.

lollipopcurve
06-18-2013, 05:24 PM
Agree with M2's assessment overall. I feel like I missed on Lamarre -- have always felt there was potential there, but the bat just can't catch up to his defense, speed and good eye at the plate. I also wanted to note optimism about Barnhart as a major league backup.

One lightning rod is Lutz. I'm a buyer, but I doubt many are just yet.

Edd Roush
06-18-2013, 06:28 PM
Tanner Rahier is looking pretty terrible.



Tanner Rahier is also just a 19 year old in A ball who has been unlucky to the tune of a .223 BABIP. I don't know where his walks have gone this year, but I still see plenty of potential in Tanner.

Benihana
06-18-2013, 06:33 PM
It's been a bumpy season so far for the farm. Too many guys struggling, very few enjoying any kind of breakthrough. I doubt the Reds are happy with the way this season is going, and I suspect they'll be cutting bait on a number of kids as the season progresses.

The good news:

Stephenson and Winker. Maybe Carlos Contreras too. He's pitching well in the Cali League. That merits at least a little bit of excitement. Felix Perez looks like he might be a useful bench OF in the majors. Yorman Rodriguez is showing flashes. Tucker Barnhart looks like he indeed may have enough bat to stick in the bigs as a backup catcher.

The bad news:

Corcino has been a complete flop. At this point I'd just declare him injured so I could send him to a shrink, or a shaman or an exorcist. Hamilton's still trying to adjust to AAA. Hopefully he emerges stronger from the experience, but his star has dimmed a bit. Ryan LaMarre is officially not a prospect. Almost every bat in Bakersfield has tanked. Jeff Gelalich is showing no power. Tanner Rahier is looking pretty terrible. Nick Travieso is just sort of meh so far (small sample, so hopefully that improves).

Agree with this, except I wouldn't give up on Rahier yet. As Edd noted, he's just 19 in full season ball, and the power and the glove are very real. Now if he can just figure out how to get on base (and hopefully the BABIP will turn around)...

Also the success of Cingrani cannot be ignored when looking at the farm system. He is looking like he will be an impact pitcher at the big league level, and his successful conversion to starter is a testament to the system (although he may now be reverting to the bullpen, although hopefully just for the interim).

HokieRed
06-18-2013, 06:57 PM
Pitching at AA is on a whole different level than low/high A....

It's better, I agree, but you could say the same about High A vs. Low A.

HokieRed
06-18-2013, 07:11 PM
That is pretty much limited to AAA. It happens to a small degree in AA and very rarely in A ball or rookie ball.

It happens a lot more, IMHO, than you are acknowledging. Take the Reds Pensacola team for an example--and if anything exhibits the weakness of our system at the moment it's something like this--the average age of that pitching staff is 25.7 years. There are only two pitchers on that staff that are 24--Renken and Rogers. With the exception of those two guys, it's not a staff of prospects, it's one of very experienced minor league pitchers--and of course they'll eat up 21 year olds for a while. Minor league rosters and results make no sense without a look at the age distribution.

Steve4192
06-18-2013, 07:26 PM
It happens a lot more, IMHO, than you are acknowledging. Take the Reds Pensacola team for an example--and if anything exhibits the weakness of our system at the moment it's something like this--the average age of that pitching staff is 25.7 years. There are only two pitchers on that staff that are 24--Renken and Rogers. With the exception of those two guys, it's not a staff of prospects, it's one of very experienced minor league pitchers--and of course they'll eat up 21 year olds for a while. Minor league rosters and results make no sense without a look at the age distribution.

A few comments.

1. The Pensacola pitching staff is a little old, but not nearly as old as you make it out to be. They are only a little over a year older than the league average.

2. Despite being older than league average, they aren't eating up anyone. Their 4.33 R/G ranks 7th in the ten team league. More talented teams are chewing them up despite their experience.

3. They aren't all that experienced. Most of the 'old guys' in the Pensacola rotation didn't get their pro careers underway until they were 22 or 23. Tim Crabbe and Josh Smith were 22 when they made their full-season debut, and Ryan Dennick was 23. They aren't experienced veterans. They are college draftees who failed to make the fast track. There are plenty of 22 year olds in the Southern League who have as much or more pro experience as those guys.

Vottomatic
06-18-2013, 07:57 PM
I didn't include Cingrani because as far as I'm concerned he's a major leaguer with an undefined position right now/future starter when it opens up.

Derrick Robinson wasn't developed by our farm system. Neither was Xavier Paul.

A guy not mentioned that I have no clue what happened to is Langfield.

REDREAD
06-19-2013, 04:06 PM
I'm not indicting the player development system at all. The current administration of the Reds have done a fantastic job recently of bringing along young talent. I'm merely arguing that the farm is not in a good place RIGHT NOW, due in large part to their recent success at graduating guys to the major leagues and flipping prospects for major league talent.

I also think there are more than a few fans wearing rose-colored glasses when it comes to the current state of the Reds farm system. There is not a lot of talent down there right now. I have total faith that the Reds player development folks will turn it around in due course, but right now the Reds farm system is in the bottom half of the majors, maybe even the bottom third.

ok, that's a good point.. I didn't mean to call you out.. .Just the general tone of the thread. The farm is doing very well under the circumstances. We've harvested so much talent from it, I think it's reasonable to be in a relatively depleted state. I do agree with you that there's not a whole lot of quanity down there to get excited about though.

I get excited to see the Reds call up a guy like Lutz ahead of schedule and then see him do ok in the bigs. Sure beats calling up a useless guy like Negron. That was my point..

Benihana
06-19-2013, 04:27 PM
ok, that's a good point.. I didn't mean to call you out.. .Just the general tone of the thread. The farm is doing very well under the circumstances. We've harvested so much talent from it, I think it's reasonable to be in a relatively depleted state. I do agree with you that there's not a whole lot of quanity down there to get excited about though.

I get excited to see the Reds call up a guy like Lutz ahead of schedule and then see him do ok in the bigs. Sure beats calling up a useless guy like Negron. That was my point..

Completely agree.

Now let's just add Trea Turner to the mix through next year's draft, and I'll be a very happy man.

REDREAD
06-19-2013, 04:47 PM
IDerrick Robinson wasn't developed by our farm system. Neither was Xavier Paul.
.

True, I counted Robinson as a success because Walt picked him up over the winter because he was DFAed and sent him to the farm, in case he was needed.

Turned out to be a good move (If Robinson was not here, surely a less talented player would be in his place).

So yea, the Reds didn't really develop Robinson, but he was on the farm when they needed him. For a contending team, being able to reach down to the farm and pull a Navaro, Robinson, Lutz, Cingrani, Partsch when you need them is invaluable.

I do agree with folks that the prospect quanity is thin now, but we've been pulling quite a harvest out of it. It is truly amazing. If the farm is thin due to the best prospects reaching the bigs quickly, I won't complain as much :)