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indy_dave00
06-22-2013, 11:36 PM
Phillip hit his 1st pro Home Run tonight in the 9th inning vs Helena. On the night he was 2 for 5 , a single the homer and 4 rbi's. It was a no doubter hit deep into the stands in lf.

Billings was up 9-2 after the homer at which point I turned the game off.

Vottomatic
06-23-2013, 01:12 AM
If Ervin continues to mash at Billings for 10 to 20 games, I think they should simply promote him to Dayton.

powersackers
06-23-2013, 01:13 PM
I say he'll be in AA before the year is over. He's the same age as Yorman who is in AA.

dougdirt
06-23-2013, 01:30 PM
I say he'll be in AA before the year is over. He's the same age as Yorman who is in AA.

I would bet you everything I had that this won't happen.

marcshoe
06-23-2013, 01:32 PM
It does seem a bit much. I doubt the Reds would want to push him that hard. He's just getting started; let's let him properly develop.

JaxRed
06-23-2013, 01:47 PM
If he continues to mash..... have him do a month in Billings, move him to Dayton on July 20 and he can have 5 weeks there.

Start him in Bakersfield in 2014 and move him to AA after a month.

Keep your franchisees and their fan bases happy.

powersackers
06-23-2013, 02:09 PM
I would bet you everything I had that this won't happen.

This guy made AA in year one. And I could probably find a dozen other examples. Why so sure Ervin can't do it?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rendon001ant

Edit: Looks like Rendon didn't sign and make it in the draft year. But it was a different draft system then. He might have.

This guy did:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wacha-001mic

dougdirt
06-23-2013, 02:16 PM
This guy made AA in year one. And I could probably find a dozen other examples. Why so sure Ervin can't do it?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rendon001ant

Edit: Looks like Rendon didn't sign and make it in the draft year. But it was a different draft system then. He might have.

This guy did:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wacha-001mic

Because that isn't how the Reds operate.

kaldaniels
06-23-2013, 02:26 PM
If Ervin continues to mash at Billings for 10 to 20 games, I think they should simply promote him to Dayton.

Very few, if any, personnel moves should be based on 10-20 games.

Vottomatic
06-23-2013, 02:31 PM
Very few, if any, personnel moves should be based on 10-20 games.

I guess the Reds made a huge mistake then, promoting Stephenson from Billings to Dayton last year after just 7 starts. Hmmm.

dougdirt
06-23-2013, 02:33 PM
I guess the Reds made a huge mistake then, promoting Stephenson from Billings to Dayton last year after just 7 starts. Hmmm.

Seven starts by a pitcher is about the equivalent of 5 weeks of a hitter. Still a small sample, but much bigger than 10-20 games.

Vottomatic
06-23-2013, 02:35 PM
Seven starts by a pitcher is about the equivalent of 5 weeks of a hitter. Still a small sample, but much bigger than 10-20 games.

7 games for a starting pitcher is 7 games. They don't play in between.

But nice try though.

dougdirt
06-23-2013, 02:38 PM
7 games for a starting pitcher is 7 games. They don't play in between.

But nice try though.

7 games for a starter is a lot more work than 7 games for a position player. In 7 starts a pitcher faces 150 batters. In 7 games a position player has 25 at bats.

Vottomatic
06-23-2013, 02:51 PM
7 games for a starter is a lot more work than 7 games for a position player. In 7 starts a pitcher faces 150 batters. In 7 games a position player has 25 at bats.

Keep moving the goal posts in this argument to win it. Never fails.

I'm moving on.

dougdirt
06-23-2013, 03:11 PM
Keep moving the goal posts in this argument to win it. Never fails.

I'm moving on.

I never set any goalposts.

Still hate the "moving goalposts" crap though. Discussions are never about a single, solitary thing. Of course the conversation will evolve beyond one specific thing said. Why that continues to shock people who then claim "moving goalposts" is something I will never understand. This isn't math. We didn't say 2+2=4. Then say well 4+2=6, so you were wrong when you said 2+2=4. The original poster was making a point that for Phillip Ervin 10-20 starts, which would be about 40-80 at bats even though he didn't specifically state it, was not reason enough to promote someone. You then began talking about pitchers and starts, which if someone else would have said that you probably would have claimed moving goalposts. So I simply stated that 25 at bats isn't the same as 35 innings/150 batters faced.

powersackers
06-23-2013, 05:44 PM
Welch and our other announcer (Grande or Kelch) on Fox just said he'd move right up the levels this year.

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mth123
06-23-2013, 05:49 PM
Walt Jocketty on XM earlier today said they expect Ervin to move up through the system quickly.

He didn't really elaborate on what his view of quickly is.

PuffyPig
06-23-2013, 06:12 PM
I guess the Reds made a huge mistake then, promoting Stephenson from Billings to Dayton last year after just 7 starts. Hmmm.

It was not Stephenson's first professional season.

That may make a difference, I'm not really sure.

powersackers
06-23-2013, 06:44 PM
Because that isn't how the Reds operate.

I think it would behoove you to open your mind about this. Ask yourself When has this Reds regime drafted a toolsy college outfielder with wood bat experience in round 1? Never. So maybe the "Reds don't do it" logic does not apply. Might make for a good article on your website.

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RedEye
06-23-2013, 07:04 PM
Keep moving the goal posts in this argument to win it. Never fails.

I'm moving on.

He's not moving the goalposts. He's just explaining why a "game" for a SP is far more actual game-time than it is for a position player. That's on-point for the conversation you are having, even if you don't like it.

In other news, good to see that Ervin connected for the first one. Let's hope there are many more where that came from, at whatever level he plays this year and next.

RedEye
06-23-2013, 07:05 PM
He didn't really elaborate on what his view of quickly is.

Three years. :lol: Just kidding -- depends whether we're talking "glacial Walt" or "big game hunter Walt." Two different concepts of time there, really.

edabbs44
06-23-2013, 07:38 PM
Because that isn't how the Reds operate.

To be fair, have we ever seen a 1st rd college guy debut professionally in June? Would or should that change anything?

mth123
06-23-2013, 07:43 PM
Three years. :lol: Just kidding -- depends whether we're talking "glacial Walt" or "big game hunter Walt." Two different concepts of time there, really.

Actually, I think three years is a pretty good guess.

dougdirt
06-23-2013, 08:19 PM
I think it would behoove you to open your mind about this. Ask yourself When has this Reds regime drafted a toolsy college outfielder with wood bat experience in round 1? Never. So maybe the "Reds don't do it" logic does not apply. Might make for a good article on your website.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk 2

Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal both were considered more polished out of the draft than Ervin, signed later and still began the complete next season at a level below AA. The Reds simply don't operate that way. The guys in place right now have been around for a long time. They have drafted a lot of college players in the top 50. They have never come close to pushing anyone that quickly, even ones who tore up the Pioneer League.

dougdirt
06-23-2013, 08:21 PM
To be fair, have we ever seen a 1st rd college guy debut professionally in June? Would or should that change anything?

We have seen supplemental guys do it and even ones that hit pretty well in Billings. It didn't matter. Even super polished guys like Grandal and Alonso, the next year, started in High A. The Reds don't move guys that quickly.

Vottomatic
06-23-2013, 08:37 PM
To be fair, have we ever seen a 1st rd college guy debut professionally in June? Would or should that change anything?

nm

I misunderstood what you were saying.

I mentioned Leake, but that's not what you're talking about.

RedEye
06-23-2013, 08:58 PM
Actually, I think three years is a pretty good guess.

Really? That's not what I thought, obviously. Now that I think about it a bit, I think three years would probably about the latest you could stretch the word "quickly" in this context. After that, there's pretty much no way to argue that Ervin is being moved through the system as a priority. Obviously, his performance at each level will have something to say about that, too.

Seems to me, though, that when they draft college OF, the Reds are often pretty sure about the tools and how the will play in the majors. Stubbs, for example, never really did much in the minors, but had a few skills that they new would play, so they kept on promoting him anyway.

mth123
06-23-2013, 09:08 PM
Really? That's not what I thought, obviously. Now that I think about it a bit, I think three years would probably about the latest you could stretch the word "quickly" in this context. After that, there's pretty much no way to argue that Ervin is being moved through the system as a priority. Obviously, his performance at each level will have something to say about that, too.

Seems to me, though, that when they draft college OF, the Reds are often pretty sure about the tools and how the will play in the majors. Stubbs, for example, never really did much in the minors, but had a few skills that they new would play, so they kept on promoting him anyway.

He's in Billings now. Counting the Reds, that's 6 levels. Moving through 6 levels in three years seems pretty fast to me.

RedEye
06-23-2013, 09:10 PM
He's in Billings now. Counting the Reds, that's 6 levels. Moving through 6 levels in three years seems pretty fast to me.

Fair enough. I have no idea, really. Just thinking aloud. Obviously would be great if he can move as fast as possible. We need more advanced bats in the upper minors, that's for sure.

Vottomatic
06-23-2013, 09:22 PM
Really? That's not what I thought, obviously. Now that I think about it a bit, I think three years would probably about the latest you could stretch the word "quickly" in this context. After that, there's pretty much no way to argue that Ervin is being moved through the system as a priority. Obviously, his performance at each level will have something to say about that, too.

Seems to me, though, that when they draft college OF, the Reds are often pretty sure about the tools and how the will play in the majors. Stubbs, for example, never really did much in the minors, but had a few skills that they new would play, so they kept on promoting him anyway.

Stubbs third year in the minors, he went from high A all the way through each level to triple A in one season. Of course season 1 was rookie ball, I think.

Bruce played rookie ball, then spent his second season at A. Then his third season jumped from high A, to double A to triple A by season's end. Fourth season played 49 games at triple A and then got the call up.

Grandal played rookie ball his first season. Second season started in high A, and progressed all the way to triple A in one season batting a combined .305 with 14 HR's. Got traded in the offseason.

Alonso only played 6 games his rookie season. Second season jumped all the way to double A. Third season double A and triple A.

kaldaniels
06-23-2013, 10:29 PM
Vottomatic, I hope Ervin forces his way thru the system very quickly. That would be great.

But for a hitter, a 10-20 game stretch just doesn't give you a good idea of where he is overall. Especially one that has just begun pro ball. Maybe he is just on a hot streak. Maybe the league will catch right back up to him. Maybe he is exactly this good.

But, for a guy that just got drafted, you gotta give him a little time to show what he's made of.

I'd rather a guy move quickly by skipping a level once or twice, rather than quickly promoting him based on a small sample of work. There is absolutely no reason to rush this guy. (In terms of jumping him up levels further/faster than he warrants)

Benihana
06-23-2013, 10:32 PM
I'm on board with bumping him to Dayton if he continues to mash over the next couple weeks. IMO he should have started there in the first place.

Vottomatic
06-23-2013, 11:06 PM
Based on Bruce, Alonso, and Grandal, and even Stubbs for that matter.........seems like the pattern is obviously a shortened season of rookie ball for season 1. Then single A for season 2. But it sure appears that the Reds are willing to jump a guy a level or two if he shows he can handle it during the season. Some of these guys went from high A in their third season all the way to triple A. They certainly weren't shy in pushing Alonso and Grandal.

kearns and dunn
06-23-2013, 11:23 PM
I don't know a lot about baseball, and I'm not going to pretend to. However, I do think that I'm one of the only ones, if not the only one here who has seen Ervin play in person.

He's good. Really good IMO. Has a great approach when he gets on base, a compact swing, and a stocky body. Watched him play in the OF, and he has great instincts when the ball is hit. Personally, I don't think he stays in Billings for very long. I'd like him to, selfishly, so that I can see him more, but I don't think he will. He's a decent amount better than everybody else there.

RedTeamGo!
06-24-2013, 02:17 PM
Dude has 17 at bats in 4 games. Wow, that may be the smallest sample size in the history of statistics.

Let me ask you this, if he started 0-17 would you be claiming he is a bum that will never amount to anything?

reds44
06-24-2013, 04:19 PM
Dude has 17 at bats in 4 games. Wow, that may be the smallest sample size in the history of statistics.

Let me ask you this, if he started 0-17 would you be claiming he is a bum that will never amount to anything?
Have you seen this place? The answer is yes.

traderumor
06-24-2013, 04:32 PM
Keep moving the goal posts in this argument to win it. Never fails.

I'm moving on.The proper cliche would be that you are comparing apples to butternut squash.

TOBTTReds
06-24-2013, 09:11 PM
Dude has 17 at bats in 4 games. Wow, that may be the smallest sample size in the history of statistics.

Let me ask you this, if he started 0-17 would you be claiming he is a bum that will never amount to anything?

To be fair, a lot of people thought he could/should be starting in Dayton.

Jamz
06-25-2013, 03:28 PM
Nice to see this guy is absolutely tearing it up right now. Hope he can continue to and progresses quickly through the minors. Right now he's definitely looking like a steal at his draft position.

Maybe the next Mike Trout? ;)

Benihana
06-25-2013, 04:11 PM
Nice to see this guy is absolutely tearing it up right now. Hope he can continue to and progresses quickly through the minors. Right now he's definitely looking like a steal at his draft position.

Maybe the next Mike Trout? ;)

I am happy that Ervin looks good so far in Billings. However, I'd caution that he is SUPPOSED to be crushing it there: remember even Chad Mottola had an .882 OPS in his debut season in Billings.

The fact of the matter is impact college hitters drafted in the first round should likely be starting in full season ball. If they don't, they should be crushing the ball.

Part of the reason I'm in favor of promoting Ervin to Billings if he continues to crush it over the next couple weeks is not because he's crushing it in such a small sample size, but rather the fact that he probably should have started in Dayton in the first place (as I have expressed in the past).

dougdirt
06-25-2013, 04:27 PM
I am happy that Ervin looks good so far in Billings. However, I'd caution that he is SUPPOSED to be crushing it there: remember even Chad Mottola had an .882 OPS in his debut season in Billings.


To be fair, the new park in Billings is much more neutral than the old park in Billings. Billings is about the best pitchers park in the entire league. Still a tad hitter friendly overall compared to all minor league parks, but nowhere near what it once was.

Tuff Nut
06-25-2013, 09:38 PM
Im glad to hear that we have college player killing it.......I'm more worried about what we thought we might have, in those that are still stuck in low A.....Gelalich..Mejas-Brean....these dudes should at the least be on AA radar. 3-4 years college players that are drafted in the first 3 rounds, that can't crack AA in year 2, need to find another day job, imho. Maybe they are slow learners, but they more than often, are left holding the bag.

dougdirt
06-25-2013, 09:50 PM
Im glad to hear that we have college player killing it.......I'm more worried about what we thought we might have, in those that are still stuck in low A.....Gelalich..Mejas-Brean....these dudes should at the least be on AA radar. 3-4 years college players that are drafted in the first 3 rounds, that can't crack AA in year 2, need to find another day job, imho. Maybe they are slow learners, but they more than often, are left holding the bag.

That simply isn't how the Reds promote guys. It also is because the Reds typically start college players in Low-A for their first full season, unlike a lot of teams. And Mejias-Brean was an 8th rounder.

Going back to 2006 here is where Top 3 round college hitters have finished (minimum 50 ABs):

A: Stubbs, Frazier, Cozart,
A+: Valaika, Lohman, LaMarre,
AA: Alonso, Grandal
AAA: None

The Reds are a "slow promote" organization. It really takes an elite level prospect (Top 25 in all of baseball) to get a quick promotion schedule (Bruce, Alonso, Grandal). Couple that with how they set guys up with their first full season assignment and it just doesn't work that way often in the Reds system.

TOBTTReds
06-27-2013, 01:41 PM
Ervin congratulated by Gabriel Rosa after his HR last night.

Benihana
06-27-2013, 02:02 PM
Ervin congratulated by Gabriel Rosa after his HR last night.

Speaking of Gabriel Rosa, does he have a position anymore? I see he has only appeared in 2 games for Billings so far, both as a DH. While he has struggled mightily since getting drafted out of a Puerto Rico HS as a 2nd rounder in 2011, he still only turns 20 on Tuesday.

3B (SMB, Rahier and Franklin) and CF (Arias, Ervin and Reynoso) are both pretty crowded in the lower minors. I wonder if he has the skills to try 2B? At 6'4", he would be the tallest 2B since, well, me...

dougdirt
06-27-2013, 07:31 PM
Speaking of Gabriel Rosa, does he have a position anymore? I see he has only appeared in 2 games for Billings so far, both as a DH. While he has struggled mightily since getting drafted out of a Puerto Rico HS as a 2nd rounder in 2011, he still only turns 20 on Tuesday.

3B (SMB, Rahier and Franklin) and CF (Arias, Ervin and Reynoso) are both pretty crowded in the lower minors. I wonder if he has the skills to try 2B? At 6'4", he would be the tallest 2B since, well, me...

Rosa is an outfielder, but he is dealing with a slight shoulder injury still. That is why he has only been in 2 games so far and both coming at DH.

bellhead
06-27-2013, 09:17 PM
Doug,

Any comparisons to Kirby Pucket? for him...

RedTeamGo!
06-28-2013, 02:33 PM
I noticed there is a Nick Fleece on the Billings roster, I hope the Reds trade him someday just so we can say "The Reds really fleeced (insert team) with this trade."

wastedtime
06-29-2013, 09:22 PM
What are the odds that Ervin gets jumped to Bakersfield or Pensacola pretty soon? He's tearing up rookie ball.

Also, Jocketty made an appearance at the Billings game recently.

dougdirt
06-29-2013, 09:23 PM
What are the odds that Ervin gets jumped to Bakersfield or Pensacola pretty soon? He's tearing up rookie ball.

Also, Jocketty made an appearance at the Billings game recently.

None. If he gets promoted this season, it will be to Dayton.

wastedtime
06-29-2013, 09:28 PM
None. If he gets promoted this season, it will be to Dayton.

Well, the one advantage of him going to Dayton instead of Bakersfield is that I'll get to "watch" him play some. "Watch" is in quotes, because the camera work in the Dayton games can be horrible.

dougdirt
06-29-2013, 09:36 PM
Well, the one advantage of him going to Dayton instead of Bakersfield is that I'll get to "watch" him play some. "Watch" is in quotes, because the camera work in the Dayton games can be horrible.

If the game isn't on a Thursday/Friday/Saturday, it isn't even worth watching on Milb.tv if it is a home game. However some Th/Fr/Sa games are broadcast locally in Dayton, and those games are just like you would see on a normal broadcast. You can find the full TV schedule on the Dragons website to know when to tune in.