So if Heisey is back tomorrow...who goes?

[bigfunguy]

I gotta guess Lutz....right?

[Ironman92]

Yeah....Lutz

[Tom Servo]

Auf wiedersehen, Lutzy.

[Trajinous]

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mcyas9BaYE1rqmlpro1_500.gif

It's gotta be.

[powersackers]

and Paul and Robinson lose playing time? Or does Heisey sit the bench?

[Ironman92]

and Paul and Robinson lose playing time? Or does Heisey sit the bench?

Dusty will probably sit Choo vs lefties.

[Raisor]

Dusty will probably sit Choo vs lefties.

There is zero chance of this happening on any regular basis. Dusty would never do that to someone like Choo

[Ironman92]

There is zero chance of this happening on any regular basis. Dusty would never do that to someone like Choo

Never meant anything regular.

"Someone like Choo" What's that about? Lol

[Raisor]

Never meant anything regular.

"Someone like Choo" What's that about? Lol

A star?

He will never platoon the top guys on the team

[tomnuetten]

should be Lutz...

as german it´s nice to see that the "first" german who grew up and learned the game in germany plays for the reds...

give him his every day at bats at double aa (or in louisville) and let´s see if he can produce... his numbers in double aa weren´t that good at all

[joshua]

I think it's guaranteed that Lutz goes back to the minor. There's no debate about that, barring some kind of catastrophe.

Here's Heisey's Career Numbers in certain situations

Batting 2nd (198 PA): .257/.306/.399

Leading off (148 PA): .240/.330/.457

Pinch Hitting (90 PA): .329/.389/.633

Small sample sizes? Yep. But I'd still rather have Robinson/Paul taking the majority of starts in LF. I included his stats hitting leadoff because Robinson does lead off occasionally and Choo is pushed down to second. I don't think that's something I want Heisey doing.

As everyone knows, Heisey is a beast off the bench. But here's another head scratching split for Heisey...

As LF (438 PA): .225/.281/.378
As CF (293 PA) : .291/.342/.478

So, if it were up to me, Heisey would be used as a late inning CF replacement, a fill in when Choo needs a day off and a PH off the bench. I think we can all agree with the Lutz & Hananahan Show hasn't been all that exciting to watch when we need a bat late in the game. Heisey would add some relief there, especially against righties.

I was going to go through and combine the stats of all the LF platoon possibilities in the 2 spot, Leading off etc. (Paul+Robinson, Robinson+ Heisey, Heisey + Paul) but I unfortunately I have to head to work.

[Ironman92]

A star?

He will never platoon the top guys on the team

In your defense is the fact he wouldn't even platoon somewhat Drew freakin Stubbs lol

[Larkin Fan]

I'd be okay with Heisey staying in the minors for an extended rehab... for say, the rest of the season, perhaps?

[NebraskaRed]

Nah, Votto is being sent down for his poor defensive skills.

I just wanted to give an answer other than the obvious, accurate answer of "Lutz"

[Raisor]

Jeepers! It's Larkin Fan!

Hey bro!

[Big Klu]

and Paul and Robinson lose playing time? Or does Heisey sit the bench?

I think Robinson will see his playing time diminish, and LF will be a platoon of Paul (vs. RHP) and Heisey (vs. LHP). Robinson will be a PH/PR, a defensive replacement in the OF, and he will give Choo an occasional day off in CF vs. LHP.

[Ironman92]

I think Robinson will see his playing time diminish, and LF will be a platoon of Paul (vs. RHP) and Heisey (vs. LHP). Robinson will be a PH/PR, a defensive replacement in the OF, and he will give Choo an occasional day off in CF vs. LHP.

Solid guess. You know Dusty wants Robinson in CF and why....but won't get much PT.

[RedEye]

Small sample sizes? Yep. But I'd still rather have Robinson/Paul taking the majority of starts in LF. I included his stats hitting leadoff because Robinson does lead off occasionally and Choo is pushed down to second. I don't think that's something I want Heisey doing.


So what happens when Robinson regresses to mean and looks worse than Heisey? Then does Chris get some starts again or has he been banished to the bench for good?

[NebraskaRed]

So what happens when Robinson regresses to mean and looks worse than Heisey? Then does Chris get some starts again or has he been banished to the bench for good?

I want to believe that either Heisey comes back better than he was before (not sure how likely that is), or that he's not going to be with the Reds for long. Although, I'm not sure what his trade value is anyway.

[RedEye]

I want to believe that either Heisey comes back better than he was before (not sure how likely that is), or that he's not going to be with the Reds for long. Although, I'm not sure what his trade value is anyway.

But he's most likely better than D-Rob either way, right? His first 2013 sample was too brief to say anything about what to expect moving forward.

[757690]

While I don't like the idea of Heisey getting regular playing time, I do prefer him over Robinson as the RH side of a LF platoon. Robinson, even more than Heisey, should not be overexposed to MLB pitching. Robinson would still be very valuable as a back CF and speed off the bench.

[mbgrayson]

A few stats to further this discussion:

Chris Heisey:
2013: 79 PAs, .173/.195/.293 for an OPS of .488, with 2 HRs, and 20 Ks. (K% 25.3%)
2012: 375 PAs, .265/.315/.401 for an OPS of .715, with 7 HRs, and 81 Ks (K% of 21.6%)

Xavier Paul
2013: 161 PAs, .255/.348/.418 for an OPS of .766, with 5 HRs, and 32 Ks (K% of 19.9%)
2012: 96 PAs, .314/.379/.465 for an OPS of .844, with 2 HRs, and 18 Ks (K% of 18.8%)

Derrick Robinson
2013: 103 PAs, .273/.366/.341 for an OPS of .707, with 0 HR, and 23 Ks (K% of 22.3 %)

Don Lutz
2013: 59 PAs, .241/.254/.310 for an OPS of .565, with 1 HR, and 14 Ks (K% of 23.7%)

[Big Klu]

Solid guess. You know Dusty wants Robinson in CF and why....but won't get much PT.


While I don't like the idea of Heisey getting regular playing time, I do prefer him over Robinson as the RH side of a LF platoon. Robinson, even more than Heisey, should not be overexposed to MLB pitching. Robinson would still be very valuable as a back CF and speed off the bench.

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Robinson is starting in LF against the lefty Milone tomorrow, with Heisey serving as the DH. That way, Dusty can work Chris back into game action gradually.

[RedEye]

A few stats to further this discussion:

Chris Heisey:
2013: 79 PAs, .173/.195/.293 for an OPS of .488, with 2 HRs, and 20 Ks. (K% 25.3%)
2012: 375 PAs, .265/.315/.401 for an OPS of .715, with 7 HRs, and 81 Ks (K% of 21.6%)

Derrick Robinson
2013: 103 PAs, .273/.366/.341 for an OPS of .707, with 0 HR, and 23 Ks (K% of 22.3 %)


Robinson's ceiling is most likely Heisey's floor IMO. I don't think he should be a roadblock for Chris to get back in the lineup. I really hope he won't.

[NebraskaRed]

But he's most likely better than D-Rob either way, right? His first 2013 sample was too brief to say anything about what to expect moving forward.

I would assume he'll be better than D-Rob, even if he's not as strong as he was last year. I want to wait and see how he does once he comes back, though.

[Tom Servo]

I'm as down on Heisey as anybody, but Robinson is fool's gold. He's purely a reserve, the more at-bats he gets the worse your team becomes for it.

[Trajinous]

1. Heisey
2. Paul
3. Robinson
4. Lutz

This is how I see the depth chart. It's pretty set in stone. Robinson and Paul have done their jobs well by filling in a temporary hole. Now let's hope Heisey can put up a .750+ OPS.

[Edd Roush]

I think Robinson will see his playing time diminish, and LF will be a platoon of Paul (vs. RHP) and Heisey (vs. LHP). Robinson will be a PH/PR, a defensive replacement in the OF, and he will give Choo an occasional day off in CF vs. LHP.

I really hope this is true. Robinson does not belong on a big league roster as anything more than a 5th outfielder who can be a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner. He is slowly being exposed as a terrible batter and Heisey should take all of his PAs. I think the difference between Heisey and Paul is negligible, so I will not be upset if one or the other gets a heavier share of the load.

[Kc61]

Heisey has an OPS of .488 this year. Last year it was .715. Some people think he is quite good, I think they are reflecting on ancient history that is badly outdated.

I would expect Heisey to go on a hot streak soon. This is because he can't really be as terrible as he was earlier this season. So I'd give him some playing time.

But if he doesn't get hot in the next few weeks I'd sell him off. It's been two years since he's hit well and I don't think the Reds should sit around waiting if Chris doesn't regain some hitting prowess.

Putting aside DH games, I'd let Heisey play against lefties and maybe some righties. Give him his shot. But this is it, I'm not waiting for 2014 on this guy.

As much as I like XPaul, I still think the Reds should have acquired a veteran left fielder when Ludwick went down. Paul is a fourth outfielder; D. Rob is a fifth outfielder; Lutz is a minor leaguer. Reds have paid a price in the power department.

[Edd Roush]

Heisey has an OPS of .488 this year. Last year it was .715. Some people think he is quite good, I think they are reflecting on ancient history that never developed and didn't continue.

Heisey's .488 OPS this year represents a whopping 79 PAs. His .488 OPS is as relevant as his .998 OPS in AA in 2009. Heisey likely fits somewhere in the middle of that broad range, probably close to his career .732 OPS. Considering his above average glove and base running skills, he is an adequate ballplayer. Very similar value to a Xavier Paul. Both can (and arguably should) be upgraded if Ludwick is out for the rest of the season (which I have not heard any whispers of, but just playing hypotheticals).


I would expect Heisey to go on a hot streak soon. This is because he can't really be as terrible as he was earlier this season. So I'd give him some playing time.

But if he doesn't get hot in the next few weeks I'd sell him off. It's been two years since he's hit well and I don't think the Reds should sit around waiting if Chris doesn't regain some hitting prowess.

If he does not get hot in a few weeks of playing time, do you think he will have any value? If he plays poorly over the next few weeks and Ludwick is not back, do we have any significantly better option?


Putting aside DH games, I'd let Heisey play against lefties and maybe some righties. Give him his shot. But this is it, I'm not waiting for 2014 on this guy.

As much as I like XPaul, I still think the Reds should have acquired a veteran left fielder when Ludwick went down. Paul is a fourth outfielder; D. Rob is a fifth outfielder; Lutz is a minor leaguer. Reds have paid a price in the power department.

I like this plan and generally agree with this part of the post. I still think Heisey will OPS around .700 for the rest of this year with a good glove and good baserunning skills. Next year will be Heisey's first year of arbitration where guys generally make 40% of their free market value. He would have to continue his .488 OPS over 300+ more plate appearances for me to advocate not giving this guy a contract on the first year arbitration discount.

Heisey seems to be a decent fourth outfielder, and will likely stay that way for his whole career. He has a little pop in his stick, but can't get on base enough to be an everyday guy. He has good versatility and plays good defense, so we will likely see him around through 2015.

[foxfire123]

Lutz. Good player, lots of potential, just needs more seasoning and at bats than he's going to get up here.

[Kc61]

Heisey's .488 OPS this year represents a whopping 79 PAs. His .488 OPS is as relevant as his .998 OPS in AA in 2009. Heisey likely fits somewhere in the middle of that broad range, probably close to his career .732 OPS. Considering his above average glove and base running skills, he is an adequate ballplayer. Very similar value to a Xavier Paul. Both can (and arguably should) be upgraded if Ludwick is out for the rest of the season (which I have not heard any whispers of, but just playing hypotheticals).



If he does not get hot in a few weeks of playing time, do you think he will have any value? If he plays poorly over the next few weeks and Ludwick is not back, do we have any significantly better option?



I like this plan and generally agree with this part of the post. I still think Heisey will OPS around .700 for the rest of this year with a good glove and good baserunning skills. Next year will be Heisey's first year of arbitration where guys generally make 40% of their free market value. He would have to continue his .488 OPS over 300+ more plate appearances for me to advocate not giving this guy a contract on the first year arbitration discount.

Heisey seems to be a decent fourth outfielder, and will likely stay that way for his whole career. He has a little pop in his stick, but can't get on base enough to be an everyday guy. He has good versatility and plays good defense, so we will likely see him around through 2015.

I've spoken at length on Heisey. He's a player whose calling card was good power, good defense. Starting in 2012 NL pitchers apparently learned that Chris will swing at virtually anything. His performance dropped significantly.

His BB rate was very poor. His power dropped. Last year IMO Heisey went from a fourth outfielder to a fifth outfielder. A good field, seldom hitting outfielder.

So we start 2013. Ludwick gets hurt. Another chance for Chris. Does Heisey step up? No, he continues to swing at virtually everything and has a terrible beginning, then he gets hurt.

IMO Heisey hasn't hit since 2011, his approach is way overaggressive at the plate and I was ready to give him away when the injury came. So now, I'm in favor of giving him another chance. Maybe he worked on his game while out.

I expect Heisey to get hot soon. His numbers cry out for correction upward. But if I were the Reds I wouldn't devote more than a few weeks to this player. If he continues not to hit I'd move him. I'd try and trade for somebody else or otherwise use Paul and DRobinson who is a decent slap hitter and bunter.

[Trajinous]

Heisey's power makes him move valuable than Paul/Lutz/Robinson especially since we are talking about 3rd/4th outfielder here. Heisey looked like could be a solid starter early in his career but most fans understand that's not going to happen. His numbers point to him as the good to great 4th outfielder while being a below average starter.

[RedEye]

I understand why folks are down a bit on Heisey, but I fail to understand why a .715 OPS (his widely panned 2012) is considered abject failure for a guy whose expected level should be .735.

[Trajinous]

I understand why folks are down a bit on Heisey, but I fail to understand why a .715 OPS (his widely panned 2012) is considered abject failure for a guy whose expected level should be .735.

I think people had too much expectations from him for whatever reason. The Reds went through some outfielders that busted on the scene out of nowhere and slowly fizzled away like Freel, Randa, Dickerson, Hopper. We as Reds fan see a guy succeed out of nowhere and start pen'ing in their career stat line. Then they start performing their average to below-average projection and people swing hard the other way.

[Vottomatic]

Well, we're playing an interleague game next so I'm guessing Heisey will be the DH.

[DocRed]

The tougher Q is who goes when Ludwick comes back? If Drob continues to play like he is it would be criminal to send him down instead of Heisey.

[Kc61]

I understand why folks are down a bit on Heisey, but I fail to understand why a .715 OPS (his widely panned 2012) is considered abject failure for a guy whose expected level should be .735.

It's really very simple. I think outfielders need to add to the offense. If Heisey's expected OPS is .735, I'd prefer somebody else. If Heisey's actual performance is .715, I definitely want somebody else.

He's not a backup catcher or a top fielding shortstop. Guy is not even an top defensive CFer, he's considered a corner outfielder who plays decent CF in a pinch.

Some folks are happy with .715 for such a player. I'm not.

[Wonderful Monds]

I think people had too much expectations from him for whatever reason. The Reds went through some outfielders that busted on the scene out of nowhere and slowly fizzled away like Freel, Randa, Dickerson, Hopper. We as Reds fan see a guy succeed out of nowhere and start pen'ing in their career stat line. Then they start performing their average to below-average projection and people swing hard the other way.

Randa?

[Roy Tucker]

Lutz on Lutz

http://mlb.mlb.com/fancave/video.jsp?content_id=28195493#fbid=FoFeV_Rbew5

[Blitz Dorsey]

No question it will be Lutz. He needs everyday ABs in Louisville. He's raw as hell but I like him. Excellent poise. Nothing fazes him at the plate it seems. That's an underrated quality in my book. Coupled with that natural power, it's easy to see why they like him. But he needs to go down and get 200 ABs at Louisville the remainder of the season and get ready for 2014. (He'll get a Sept call-up but I doubt will be on the Reds' 2013 playoff roster if they make it.)

[IslandRed]

I think people had too much expectations from him for whatever reason.

Edd Roush's post mentioned his monster half-season in Carolina, which flavored the perception of his potential for some time after that. And because that half-season came while Stubbs was struggling to prove he deserved a promotion to Cincinnati, many Stubbs doubters suddenly had a new horse to back. As fate turned out, the correct answer was "neither," but hindsight is 20-20 and all that.

[TOBTTReds]

The tougher Q is who goes when Ludwick comes back? If Drob continues to play like he is it would be criminal to send him down instead of Heisey.

Still maybe two months away from this. Something will shake out by then. If not, then we are in a good position.

Also, if DRob continues to play like this, it may be easy to send him down (not sure if he has options). He's hitting .217 since June 1st with a .294 OBP (52 PA's).

[RedEye]

It's really very simple. I think outfielders need to add to the offense. If Heisey's expected OPS is .735, I'd prefer somebody else. If Heisey's actual performance is .715, I definitely want somebody else.

He's not a backup catcher or a top fielding shortstop. Guy is not even an top defensive CFer, he's considered a corner outfielder who plays decent CF in a pinch.

Some folks are happy with .715 for such a player. I'm not.

I don't understand why you privilege 300+ PA in 2012 over everything else Heisey has shown over 3+ years now in the major leagues, but I also know you have been round and round on this topic in other places on this board, so I'll accept your answer for now.

Even if we think he is just a .735-ish bat, I have two thoughts:

1) Why is it so bad that one of three OF (whether he is starting or in a platoon) has a league average bat? They can't all be stars. Heisey is not one -- but he's put up above-average hitting stats for his career with solid defense every year.

2) I remember reading when he was coming up that Heisey was only a notch below Stubbs on defense in CF. In recent years, many publications have him as a very good corner OF -- so much so that his D balanced out some of his deficiencies as a hitter. Is this no longer the case? Is he suddenly a terrible CF?

In short, I don't get why Heisey is such a whipping boy here. No, he's clearly not the second coming of Eric Davis as an OF, but he's a quality contributor IMO. He's a starter on many teams and a great fourth OF on others. On this Reds team, seems to me that he's probably the best CF on the team right now. I don't get why he's not at the very least an unquestioned platoon partner for Paul -- if not still "the man" for the rest of the time until Ludwick returns.

Heisey is okay, and he certainly doesn't merit the constant "Why don't we trade for Justin Ruggiano (or whatever flavor-of-the month)" threads that pop up around here.

[Kc61]

I don't understand why you privilege 300+ PA in 2012 over everything else Heisey has shown over 3+ years now in the major leagues, but I also know you have been round and round on this topic in other places on this board, so I'll accept your answer for now.

Even if we think he is just a .735-ish bat, I have two thoughts:

1) Why is it so bad that one of three OF (whether he is starting or in a platoon) has a league average bat? They can't all be stars. Heisey is not one -- but he's put up above-average hitting stats for his career with solid defense every year.

2) I remember reading when he was coming up that Heisey was only a notch below Stubbs on defense in CF. In recent years, many publications have him as a very good corner OF -- so much so that his D balanced out some of his deficiencies as a hitter. Is this no longer the case? Is he suddenly a terrible CF?

In short, I don't get why Heisey is such a whipping boy here. No, he's clearly not the second coming of Eric Davis as an OF, but he's a quality contributor IMO. He's a starter on many teams and a great fourth OF on others. On this Reds team, seems to me that he's probably the best CF on the team right now. I don't get why he's not at the very least an unquestioned platoon partner for Paul -- if not still "the man" for the rest of the time until Ludwick returns.

Heisey is okay, and he certainly doesn't merit the constant "Why don't we trade for Justin Ruggiano (or whatever flavor-of-the month)" threads that pop up around here.

Again, it's simple. I didn't pick two years at random, I focus on 2012 and 2013 which happen to be the most recent years in this world. And in 2012 he had his most PAs of any season, 375. Others like to look at his first two years. i don't because those years happened quite awhile ago. I view 2012-11 numbers as pretty stale.

.715 is about league average for the NL, this year's NL average is below that. (AL average is a bit higher.) But that average includes pitchers, backup infielders, etc. i don't view .715 as league average for outfielders. I'm pretty sure it isn't and in any event I don't think a .715 OPS outfielder adds offense to a contending team. Derrick Robinson is a low .700s outfielder. A fifth outfielder.

Heisey is considered a corner outfielder primarily because the manager of the team expressly said so. Earlier this year. Made it very clear he views Heisey as a corner man who can fill in as a CFer.

But look, there's no reason to debate this player -- frankly, I find it odd that his supporters seem to find him irreplaceable. Since he was a former Reds prospect, I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

Now, he will get still another chance. Still another opportunity to show he belongs in the lineup.

I hope he succeeds this time, the Reds could use another hitter.

[RedEye]

Kc61, I get that you don't really dig Heisey. We're not that far apart. Frankly, I don't think he's the greatest thing since sliced bread either. I just think he's often underestimated by people on this board eager to replace him with whatever player is on a hot streak on whatever team they perceive to be out of contention.


Again, it's simple. I didn't pick two years at random, I focus on 2012 and 2013 which happen to be the most recent years in this world. As I recall, 2012 he had his highest number of PAs. Others like to look at his first two years. i don't because those years happened quite awhile ago. I view 2012-11 numbers as pretty stale.


Except for that 2012-2013 is a total of about 450 plate appearances -- not exactly a large sample. The standard for all statistical projections is to include 3 years, I believe. So I understand that you choose to include just the past two years, but don't understand why beyond a "what have you done for me lately" decision.


.715 is about league average for the NL, this year's NL average is below that. (AL average is a bit higher.) But that average includes pitchers, backup infielders, etc. i don't view .715 as league average for outfielders. I'm pretty sure it isn't and in any event I don't think a .715 OPS outfielder adds offense to a contending team.

He's only a .715 OPS OF if you include just under 400 PA from a career that is now around 1000. Seems highly selective to me.


He is considered a corner outfielder primarily because the manager of the team expressly said so. Earlier this year. Made it very clear he views Heisey as a corner man who can fill in as a CFer.

So your opinion is entirely based on Dusty's word? Remember that he basically only lost the CF gig to Stubbs, who for many is still considered elite on that side of the ball. I think it's not a stretch to think Heisey is still capable of league average D in CF -- which is not an easy skill to come by with a league average bat. Heck, there is no way that he's worse than Choo out there, and the team seems ready to accept that for the foreseeable future. The stats available basically back me up on this (although I know D stats are hardly a perfect system).


But look, there's no reason to debate this player -- frankly, I find it odd that his supporters seem to find him irreplaceable. Since he was a former Reds prospect, I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

That's not really a fair position. I never said he was irreplaceable -- I just think he's undervalued. I like the Reds, but I am not an irrational supporter of Reds prospects as a rule. I'm going on objective analysis of Heisey that is available out there.


Now, he will get still another chance. Still another opportunity to show he belongs in the lineup. One more opportunity. I hope he succeeds this time, the Reds could use another hitter.

You and me both. Really, the one most frustrating thing for me about Heisey is he seems unable to stay healthy and/or to take advantage of the opportunities he is given. At some point, that will be all she wrote, I suppose. I guess I just think he's got more to offer somewhere -- still hidden, but available if he's on the field at the right time.

[Kc61]

RedEye, just to be clear, I was quite high on Chris when he hit all the pinch homers a few years back and hoped he would succeed. And for sure, the Reds could use another power bat now, so I'm hopeful.

He upsets me because his approach at the plate seems overly aggressive; and he doesn't put it together when given playing time on a steady basis.

Sometimes when a Reds player gets hurt, I wonder if part of the DL stay is devoted to polishing up his game. I'm hopeful that's true in this case. Reds need more pop from LF, and he's the next in line to try. We'll find out starting tomorrow.

[corkedbat]

I have no problem with Lutz going down for some more seasoning - hopefully the taste of the bigs will make him work even harder to get back. As for Heisey, I'm hoping he comes back on a mini hot streak and they deal him at the deadline.

[RedEye]

I have no problem with Lutz going down for some more seasoning - hopefully the taste of the bigs will make him work even harder to get back. As for Heisey, I'm hoping he comes back on a mini hot streak and they deal him at the deadline.

I just "liked" that post before reading the sting in its tail. if Heisey comes back on a hot streak, why would you deal him at the deadline?

Sincerely,

RedEye
De Facto Chief of the Heisey Fan Club

[mth123]

I think Lutz will be the move, but I'll propose going a little out of the box. I'd send Partch down. The Reds are due to play 6 games in AL parks. They'll need a DH and they won't need to burn any pitchers by pinch hitting for them. If it was up to me, Joey Votto would man the DH spot for the week. He's not going to get rest over the All Star break and the team can't really afford to sit him. This would be a great opportunity to give him a mid-season blow without taking his bat out of the line-up. Lutz would get a lot of time at 1B with Hannahan (I might even send Lutz down in favor of Soto to make this a lefty-righty platoon, though I prefer Lutz to Hannahan as the LH side). A week long "rest" for Joey could do wonders over the rest of the season IMO.

If dropping to 11 pitchers leaves the Reds with a short staff, they could always send Lutz down and add an arm for the next day. But remember, no PH for the pitcher for the next week, so no need to remove the starter before it's time from a pitching standpoint. No need for a reliever who gets a real short stint because they need to take him out after facing a hitter or two because it's his turn to bat. Unless the Reds go into extra innings and burn everybody up or a starter gets blown out, there really isn't a reason they should come up short in the pen with 6 guys out there and a rotation that seems capable of going 7 nearly every day.

When the Reds come home, Broxton should be ready and they can go back to 12 pitchers and send Lutz or whoever out then.

[Brutus]

It's really very simple. I think outfielders need to add to the offense. If Heisey's expected OPS is .735, I'd prefer somebody else. If Heisey's actual performance is .715, I definitely want somebody else.

He's not a backup catcher or a top fielding shortstop. Guy is not even an top defensive CFer, he's considered a corner outfielder who plays decent CF in a pinch.

Some folks are happy with .715 for such a player. I'm not.

Who has actually said they are happy with .715 for a starting left fielder? I don't think anyone has remotely insinuated that, much less said it.

The people that prefer Heisey might be doing so because they're not convinced Paul will be a better option and they're sure that Robinson and Lutz are not better options.

Still, plucking only less than a season's worth of at-bats for any player because it's "most recent" is reckless use of statistics. Absolutely no one on the majors is considered to have established a baseline because of his first season at the big league level, so it makes no sense why one would throw out several seasons of stats in favor of a limited sample of 450 plate appearances as if everything that was done prior is meaningless. That's, again, reckless.

We have 1,000 trips to the plate for Heisey. We should consider all of them, not just the most recent ones that fit a narrative.

[757690]

Who has actually said they are happy with .715 for a starting left fielder? I don't think anyone has remotely insinuated that, much less said it.

The people that prefer Heisey might be doing so because they're not convinced Paul will be a better option and they're sure that Robinson and Lutz are not better options.

Still, plucking only less than a season's worth of at-bats for any player because it's "most recent" is reckless use of statistics. Absolutely no one on the majors is considered to have established a baseline because of his first season at the big league level, so it makes no sense why one would throw out several seasons of stats in favor of a limited sample of 450 plate appearances as if everything that was done prior is meaningless. That's, again, reckless.

We have 1,000 trips to the plate for Heisey. We should consider all of them, not just the most recent ones that fit a narrative.

Every projection system heavily weights the most recent seasons over a player's earlier seasons. And for good reason. His current state of play tells us more about who he currently is than his past, or his career average. It's not a matter of throwing out his early seasons, it about favoring his most current ones. It's done with everyone.

The most recent updated projections of Heisey on fangraphs has him OPSing around .640 for the year.

[Brutus]

Every projection system heavily weights the most recent seasons over a player's earlier seasons. And for good reason. His current state of play tells us more about who he currently is than his past, or his career average. It's not a matter of throwing out his early seasons, it about favoring his most current ones. It's done with everyone.

The most recent updated projections of Heisey on fangraphs has him OPSing around .640 for the year.

Seems you're conflating "weighting" with "discard."

Weighting, or putting slightly more emphasis on, is not done so haphazardly to ignore the rest of a player's career. It's all considered.

KC has not been doing any "weighting." He's been only looking at "most recent" numbers and discarding the rest. That's not weighting. Any projection system uses as much data as it can. It puts only a little more emphasis on recent performance. It doesn't discard everything else. Regardless, projections for half a season, especially based on a fluke sample of 70 plate appearances and half a season prior is worthless.

[757690]

Seems you're conflating "weighting" with "discard."

Weighting, or putting slightly more emphasis on, is not done so haphazardly to ignore the rest of a player's career. It's all considered.

KC has not been doing any "weighting." He's been only looking at "most recent" numbers and discarding the rest. That's not weighting. Any projection system uses as much data as it can. It puts only a little more emphasis on recent performance. It doesn't discard everything else. Regardless, projections for half a season, especially based on a fluke sample of 70 plate appearances and half a season prior is worthless.

Not fighting KC's battle. Just presenting facts.

The updated projections are not based on this season alone, but on all the data. Going into the season, the projections had him at around a .715 OPS, same as last season. That included all the data, every MLB PA Heisey has ever had. Considering he's at .488 right now, it seems like the projections are projecting him to OPS near that .715 going forward. If he did that, that would bring his .488 back up to around .640 overall.

Anyway, projections are just that, and not any real proof of anything. My only point was that projections strongly weight what a player has done recently, especially a player with as few PA's as Heisey. The more a player plays, the less value his early seasons have.

[hebroncougar]

I wonder if they will option out Partch for the next two series and go with an extra bat for a DH. Then bring up a reliever or bring Broxton back after the Texas series.

[Kc61]

Who has actually said they are happy with .715 for a starting left fielder? I don't think anyone has remotely insinuated that, much less said it.

The people that prefer Heisey might be doing so because they're not convinced Paul will be a better option and they're sure that Robinson and Lutz are not better options.

Still, plucking only less than a season's worth of at-bats for any player because it's "most recent" is reckless use of statistics. Absolutely no one on the majors is considered to have established a baseline because of his first season at the big league level, so it makes no sense why one would throw out several seasons of stats in favor of a limited sample of 450 plate appearances as if everything that was done prior is meaningless. That's, again, reckless.

We have 1,000 trips to the plate for Heisey. We should consider all of them, not just the most recent ones that fit a narrative.

Looking at Heisey's stats without recognizing the deterioration over the last two seasons is the reckless analysis.

The simplest way to look at any player is the one stop shopping of overall averages and composite stats. It is the facile approach. If one takes the time to break things down more specifically he may reach different conclusions. Also watching the player provides information. Especially someone without a long established record.

And of course if one analyzes Heisey's older stats there are warning signs, including a .309 OBP in his best season and poor K/BB rates throughout.

The one thing Heisey did show in those older seasons was the ability to get hot from a power perspective. Hopefully that talent will re-emerge, it has been dormant.

Obviously you don't ignore older information entirely. It gets some weight. But the worst way to weigh player stats is to use the rather lazy technique of simply looking at career averages and composites.

[Edd Roush]

I think Lutz will be the move, but I'll propose going a little out of the box. I'd send Partch down. The Reds are due to play 6 games in AL parks. They'll need a DH and they won't need to burn any pitchers by pinch hitting for them. If it was up to me, Joey Votto would man the DH spot for the week. He's not going to get rest over the All Star break and the team can't really afford to sit him. This would be a great opportunity to give him a mid-season blow without taking his bat out of the line-up. Lutz would get a lot of time at 1B with Hannahan (I might even send Lutz down in favor of Soto to make this a lefty-righty platoon, though I prefer Lutz to Hannahan as the LH side). A week long "rest" for Joey could do wonders over the rest of the season IMO.

If dropping to 11 pitchers leaves the Reds with a short staff, they could always send Lutz down and add an arm for the next day. But remember, no PH for the pitcher for the next week, so no need to remove the starter before it's time from a pitching standpoint. No need for a reliever who gets a real short stint because they need to take him out after facing a hitter or two because it's his turn to bat. Unless the Reds go into extra innings and burn everybody up or a starter gets blown out, there really isn't a reason they should come up short in the pen with 6 guys out there and a rotation that seems capable of going 7 nearly every day.

When the Reds come home, Broxton should be ready and they can go back to 12 pitchers and send Lutz or whoever out then.

Phenomenal idea. I wish the Reds would do it.

[CySeymour]

I think Lutz will be the move, but I'll propose going a little out of the box. I'd send Partch down. The Reds are due to play 6 games in AL parks. They'll need a DH and they won't need to burn any pitchers by pinch hitting for them. If it was up to me, Joey Votto would man the DH spot for the week. He's not going to get rest over the All Star break and the team can't really afford to sit him. This would be a great opportunity to give him a mid-season blow without taking his bat out of the line-up. Lutz would get a lot of time at 1B with Hannahan (I might even send Lutz down in favor of Soto to make this a lefty-righty platoon, though I prefer Lutz to Hannahan as the LH side). A week long "rest" for Joey could do wonders over the rest of the season IMO.

If dropping to 11 pitchers leaves the Reds with a short staff, they could always send Lutz down and add an arm for the next day. But remember, no PH for the pitcher for the next week, so no need to remove the starter before it's time from a pitching standpoint. No need for a reliever who gets a real short stint because they need to take him out after facing a hitter or two because it's his turn to bat. Unless the Reds go into extra innings and burn everybody up or a starter gets blown out, there really isn't a reason they should come up short in the pen with 6 guys out there and a rotation that seems capable of going 7 nearly every day.

When the Reds come home, Broxton should be ready and they can go back to 12 pitchers and send Lutz or whoever out then.

Nice analysis. Well done! :beerme:

[Edd Roush]

Looking at Heisey's stats without recognizing the deterioration over the last two seasons is the reckless analysis.

You do not have any conclusive data to state that Chris Heisey has "deteriorated." We have 79 terrible PAs this year which is too small of a sample to draw any conslusions and we have 375 PAs last year where he showed significant progress in his K rate, but struggled even worse taking walks. His OPS was significantly hampered in 2012 in large part to a very unlucky 6.6% HR/FB rate. For reference, he has a career rate of 12.2% and his big 2011 had a HR/FB rate of 18.6%. Chris has the kind of power where one could rely on him to be in the 12 - 14% range for his career. If you double his home runs per fly ball to his career rate, his OPS would look much better in 2012. And there is no reason you should not in your analysis. Chris is what he is. A lot of pop, doesn't like to take a walk, a decent batting average, a great corner outfield glove and good baserunning skills.

I see little in the data to conclude that Chris' skills have "deteriorated."


The simplest way to look at any player is the one stop shopping of overall averages and composite stats. It is the facile approach. If one takes the time to break things down more specifically he may reach different conclusions. Also watching the player provides information. Especially someone without a long established record.

And of course if one analyzes Heisey's older stats there are warning signs, including a .309 OBP in his best season and poor K/BB rates throughout.

The one thing Heisey did show in those older seasons was the ability to get hot from a power perspective. Hopefully that talent will re-emerge, it has been dormant.

Obviously you don't ignore older information entirely. It gets some weight. But the worst way to weigh player stats is to use the rather lazy technique of simply looking at career averages and composites.

I believe it is lazy to look just at the OBP and SLG for the last two years and draw conclusions. If one were to analyze his HR/FB rate as I did earlier in this post, one would see that he was very unlucky with HRs in 2012. His power has not been "dormant", rather it has just not shown itself in the 2012 slugging because of bad luck.

I also am not one to prescribe to the notion that one guy "gets hot" more often than others. All players have ebbs and flows. It is the reason baseball is a marathon and not a sprint.

I still do not believe that Chris Heisey should be an everyday outfielder on a championship team. Chris can be upgraded and would be by Ryan Ludwick. That being said, he is a definitive upgrade over Derrick Robinson. Furthermore, Chris is better than a replacement level player and the Reds should use some combination of Heisey and Paul to get them to the point where Ludwick returns, unless Walt get make a deal to get a Nate Schierholtz or Josh Willingham for a good price.

Chris Heisey is a solid player and Reds' fans should be very happy that he will likely take PAs away from Derrick Robinson in the short-term.

[Kc61]

Edd, you accuse me of jumping to conclusions. Yet anyone who relies on "luck" with no further analysis shouldn't throw stones. Your "analysis" of Heisey's power failure is no analysis at all.

Heisey's HR/FB rate did drop. But more importantly, his fly ball rate overall has declined substantially and his ground ball rate has increased over the last two seasons from 31.6% to 37.3% to 44.2% earlier this year. A so-called power hitter with 44.2% ground balls may need an adjustment.

The overall problem Heisey has as a hitter is his BB/K rate. Last year it was 0.22 which tied Wilson Valdez. And this year it was .10 which is by far the worst of any position player on the team. In 2011 it was 0.24, which is also low, albeit a tad better.

Heisey is not Juan Francisco, but he has some similar tendencies, with better defense, but not as much power. He needs significant adjustments.

If he simply relies on his "luck" to change, or rests on the laurels of one pretty good season, i fear he will be doing so from a different clubhouse. Although this year there is no place for him to go but up.

[RedTeamGo!]

Lutz may get a couple extra days with Phillips being on paternity leave.

[Edd Roush]

Edd, you accuse me of jumping to conclusions. Yet anyone who relies on "luck" with no further analysis shouldn't throw stones. Your "analysis" of Heisey's power failure is no analysis at all.

Heisey's HR/FB rate did drop. But more importantly, his fly ball rate overall has declined substantially and his ground ball rate has increased over the last two seasons from 31.6% to 37.3% to 44.2% earlier this year. A so-called power hitter with 44.2% ground balls may need an adjustment.

A 44.2% ground ball rate in a 79 PA sample is completely irrelevant. Any data taken from that small of a sample is too prone to random fluctuation to draw a conclusion on. Due to this, I will not even address the 44.2% ground ball rate in 2013.

I will, however, address the increase from 2011 to 2012. Heisey's GB % is increasing, and with a guy of his power, you would like him to be hitting fly balls and line drives rather than ground balls. No doubt about that. With that in mind, let's look at the positives from Heisey's 2012 batted ball types. In 2012, he saw his line drive rate jump 3%. Certainly a line drive is the most preferred batted ball type. So while Heisey is hitting less fly balls, he is hitting more line drives, which is a good thing. Furthermore, Heisey cut down his infield fly ball rate from 2011 to 2012. So while he is hitting less fly balls, he is hitting more line drives and less easy outs with infield fly balls.

That being said, you have not at all addressed my claim of the HR/FB rate. If it is not luck, what is it? You certainly can't proclaim that he hit the ball less hard in 2012 than he did in 2011 seeing how his LD rate spiked. It also did not occur because he moved into a less hitter-friendly ballpark. GABP was the same in 2012 as it was in 2011. Yes, Heisey is hitting a lower % of fly balls, but of that smaller sample of fly balls, wouldn't you expect roughly the same % (or a higher %) of them to go over the fence if the batter has a higher line drive rate, is hitting less infield fly balls and is still in a hitter friendly ballpark for half of his PAs?


The overall problem Heisey has as a hitter is his BB/K rate. Last year it was 0.22 which tied Wilson Valdez. And this year it was .10 which is by far the worst of any position player on the team. In 2011 it was 0.24, which is also low, albeit a tad better.

Heisey is not Juan Francisco, but he has some similar tendencies, with better defense, but not as much power. He needs significant adjustments.

I do not disagree here until your last sentence of this portion. I do not like Heisey's walk rate, although as I said in my previous post, I was encouraged with how his K rate dropped in 2012. If Heisey could maintain his 2012 K rate, and also get his BB rate up to the 8% range (which I do not expect), he would be good enough to be a starter.

I do not know what you mean by the fact that he "needs signficant adjustments." I certainly hope that he is working as hard as he can at a better understanding of the strike zone. I hope every batter does this. That being said, I do not believe that batters can just flip the switch on not swinging at pitches outside of the zone and still maintaining their ability to hit pitches within the zone with the same regularity and power. If they could, I would expect that all batters would. Heisey is probably as good as he can be at this point, which is a solid #4 outfielder.


If he simply relies on his "luck" to change, or rests on the laurels of one pretty good season, i fear he will be doing so from a different clubhouse. Although this year there is no place for him to go but up.

I hope no hitters just rely on their luck to change. I hope all hitters work as hard as they can to improve every day of their careers. I would agree that "if he simply relies on his "luck" to change, or rests on the laurels of one pretty good season, I fear he will be doing so from a different clubhouse." My point is that I believe Heisey is a hard worker now, just as he has been for his entire career. He should not be thinking about his unlucky 2012, but that being said, he was very HR/FB unlucky in 2012. If he keeps on doing what he has for his entire career (without thinking about luck), we will see that Heisey is the same low OBP, high SLG bat, with a good glove and good baserunning skills that he has been his whole career.

My whole point of posting is to refute your claim that his skills have "deteriorated." The stats show that Heisey was largely the same hitter in 2012 that he was in 2010 & 2011. We don't have enough stats for 2013 to conclude anything. My assertion is that if he replicates his 2012 form, he will see a higher OPS in 2013, due in large part to a higher HR/FB rate.

[Big Klu]

Lutz may get a couple extra days with Phillips being on paternity leave.

He may, but I think it would be a bad idea. Better to have an extra infielder while Phillips is away. (Henry Rodriguez comes to mind.)

[RedTeamGo!]

He may, but I think it would be a bad idea. Better to have an extra infielder while Phillips is away. (Henry Rodriguez comes to mind.)

I agree, but I am not sure the Reds will fly a player across country for two games.

[Kc61]

Too bad this happened with a lefty going tonight. Phillips hits most effectively against them.

I'm assuming it will be Robinson, Choo, Votto, Frazier, Bruce, Heisey, Cozart, Hanigan, Izturis.

[757690]

A 44.2% ground ball rate in a 79 PA sample is completely irrelevant. Any data taken from that small of a sample is too prone to random fluctuation to draw a conclusion on. Due to this, I will not even address the 44.2% ground ball rate in 2013.


That being said, you have not at all addressed my claim of the HR/FB rate. If it is not luck, what is it? You certainly can't proclaim that he hit the ball less hard in 2012 than he did in 2011 seeing how his LD rate spiked. It also did not occur because he moved into a less hitter-friendly ballpark. GABP was the same in 2012 as it was in 2011. Yes, Heisey is hitting a lower % of fly balls, but of that smaller sample of fly balls, wouldn't you expect roughly the same % (or a higher %) of them to go over the fence if the batter has a higher line drive rate, is hitting less infield fly balls and is still in a hitter friendly ballpark for half of his PAs?

My whole point of posting is to refute your claim that his skills have "deteriorated." The stats show that Heisey was largely the same hitter in 2012 that he was in 2010 & 2011. We don't have enough stats for 2013 to conclude anything. My assertion is that if he replicates his 2012 form, he will see a higher OPS in 2013, due in large part to a higher HR/FB rate.

You can't throw out Heisey's 79 AB's this season, just like I can't throw his 83 AB's in the middle of 2011 when he 6 homers and had an .900 OPS. It all counts. You just don't want to look at either stretch in isolation, but neither should be ignored.

And concerning luck. How do we know that the high FB/HR rate at the beginning of his career wasn't the part that was due to luck? Not saying that it is, but both samples are so small, that one can't conclude that either truly represents Heisey's skill level.

As for his deteriorating skills. I agree that they have not deteriorated. They are the same as they were throughout his career. And that's the problem. They weren't very good, ever.

At the beginning, before the league knew much about him, and as Baker selectively used him in favorable matchups, Heisey's faults were somewhat hidden. He could get away with poor pitch recognition and selection, for a time. But them the league figured out his weaknesses and have been exploiting them since, and will continue to exploit them until he figures it out, or is out of baseball.

[Edd Roush]

You can't throw out Heisey's 79 AB's this season, just like I can't throw his 83 AB's in the middle of 2011 when he 6 homers and had an .900 OPS. It all counts. You just don't want to look at either stretch in isolation, but neither should be ignored.

I agree. We do need to consider every PA, but the question is how much should we weigh each PA? The 79 PAs that Heisey has had this year show that he is hitting GBs at a much higher rate than in the past. I do not believe the evidence shows that he will continue to hit GBs at a 44% rate going forward, just because he did that in the most recent sample. A 79 PA sample size is so small that if he hit 30 GBs in his next 100 PAs, his GB rate would drop to 36.3% and we would not be discussing this matter at all.


And concerning luck. How do we know that the high FB/HR rate at the beginning of his career wasn't the part that was due to luck? Not saying that it is, but both samples are so small, that one can't conclude that either truly represents Heisey's skill level.

While the low HR/FB rate 2012 is a smaller sample than the rest of his career, I do see your point. My counterpoint is that throughout all of the MLB (which is a sample size much greater than either Heisey sample sizes) guys with ISOs .135 the year of and at least .179 the two years prior, do not have HR/FB rates of 6.6%. His HR/FB rate is an anomaly across all the major leagues.


As for his deteriorating skills. I agree that they have not deteriorated. They are the same as they were throughout his career. And that's the problem. They weren't very good, ever.

At the beginning, before the league knew much about him, and as Baker selectively used him in favorable matchups, Heisey's faults were somewhat hidden. He could get away with poor pitch recognition and selection, for a time. But them the league figured out his weaknesses and have been exploiting them since, and will continue to exploit them until he figures it out, or is out of baseball.

From my posts, I think I have shown that I agree that Heisey's bat hasen't been very good ever. I am just arguing he has a much better bat than Derrick Robinson. However, I believe his early success is due to more than just being used before the league knew much about him, and as Baker selectively useing him in favorable matchups. I believe his future BA/OBP/SLG will match his 2010 & 2011 numbers. He is a high K, low BB, high slugging bat. No one seems to be arguing his defensive or baserunning prowess.

I do disagree with the notion that pitchers are exploiting his weaknesses more than they used to. Heisey struck out less and hit less infield pop-ups in 2012 than he did before. Those are the two most glaring signs of a player being overmatched. Furthermore, Chris had his highest BA and highest LD rate of his career. He was squaring it up better than he ever had. He just wasn't getting those LDs and FBs to go over the fence. I do not know how to find these stats easily, but I would assume that he had the lowest HR/FB rate of any MLB player with 300+ PAs this year and at least 200+ PAs last year for a guy who had HR/FB rates of at least 12% each of the last two years and ISOed 179 in each of the two previous years and 135 in the year questioned. He unquestionably had bad luck.

[Brutus]

You can't throw out Heisey's 79 AB's this season, just like I can't throw his 83 AB's in the middle of 2011 when he 6 homers and had an .900 OPS. It all counts. You just don't want to look at either stretch in isolation, but neither should be ignored.

And concerning luck. How do we know that the high FB/HR rate at the beginning of his career wasn't the part that was due to luck? Not saying that it is, but both samples are so small, that one can't conclude that either truly represents Heisey's skill level.

As for his deteriorating skills. I agree that they have not deteriorated. They are the same as they were throughout his career. And that's the problem. They weren't very good, ever.

At the beginning, before the league knew much about him, and as Baker selectively used him in favorable matchups, Heisey's faults were somewhat hidden. He could get away with poor pitch recognition and selection, for a time. But them the league figured out his weaknesses and have been exploiting them since, and will continue to exploit them until he figures it out, or is out of baseball.

You shouldn't throw them out, but you sure as heck should not be looking at them in isolation or putting emphasis on them as some sign of a trend.

If one looks at them in a bigger picture, say, career average, then it would be acceptable.

[Kc61]

And concerning luck. How do we know that the high FB/HR rate at the beginning of his career wasn't the part that was due to luck? Not saying that it is, but both samples are so small, that one can't conclude that either truly represents Heisey's skill level.

.

I think there is evidence that Heisey's HR/FB rate was overstated early in his career. His big claim to fame was 2011, his 18 homers. But he only had 7 doubles that season. Seems a bit unusual to me. The following year, 2012, he had 16 doubles and 7 homers.

When you look at the reduction in Heisey's fly ball rate from almost 50% in 2011 to 41% in 2012, you see a hitter who likely didn't hit as many high drives to the outfield. So I'm suggesting that Heisey had more of a doubles swing later on and more of a homer swing earlier on.

I think this could explain why the HR/FB rate reduction may be more than "luck."

But ultimately, even the power numbers aren't that critical. The guy Ks a great deal, walks almost never, and it takes an unusual player to succeed in that circumstance. You can throw any statistic in the book at me and I still won't like his swing at almost anything approach.

Bottom line, some fans think Heisey's 2012 and early 2013 were random flukes. Some of us think it's the result of poor plate discipline. We'll see as time moves on.

[RedTeamGo!]

I agree, but I am not sure the Reds will fly a player across country for two games.

I was wrong - Hrod was brought up. :thumbup:

[mth123]

My two cents is that 2012 and 2013 counts a lot more than 2010 and 2011 when analyzing a player's expected performance. Unless there is an injury to explain a recent downturn, recent performance is more important. We also need to keep in mind that early in a guy's career he gets challenged more as pitchers and teams get a feel for how to pitch to him and usually his team will pick his spots for playing where he is more likely to succeed. In many cases, a player's first year or two are the best he ever is.

Teams adjust to a player, the best ones adjust back. Other guys settle into a lower level of performance than seen in their first year or two.

[Big Klu]

I was wrong - Hrod was brought up. :thumbup:

This Reds front office does business a little differently than the ones we had grown accustomed to during the previous 15-20 years.

[50YrRedsFan]

Henry Rodriguez up from AAA to replace Phillips (paternity leave),
Heisey activated from DL, and Lutz sent back to AA Pensacola.

[Big Klu]

Henry Rodriguez up from AAA to replace Phillips (paternity leave),
Heisey activated from DL, and Lutz sent back to AA Pensacola.

Just as I predicted!

I love it when a plan comes together!

http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100923000612/a-team/images/f/f6/Orginal_John_Hannibal_Smith.jpg

[RedEye]

My two cents is that 2012 and 2013 counts a lot more than 2010 and 2011 when analyzing a player's expected performance. Unless there is an injury to explain a recent downturn, recent performance is more important. We also need to keep in mind that early in a guy's career he gets challenged more as pitchers and teams get a feel for how to pitch to him and usually his team will pick his spots for playing where he is more likely to succeed. In many cases, a player's first year or two are the best he ever is.

Teams adjust to a player, the best ones adjust back. Other guys settle into a lower level of performance than seen in their first year or two.

What about if a downward dip is attributable to random variance?

[mth123]

What about if a downward dip is attributable to random variance?

Might be. Then we'd see different results in time. I don't believe it's random variance here. It's just being exposed. It ususally is with guys in their 3rd or 4th year. I don't think there is any question that early in Heisey's career Dusty was hand-picking the match-ups that worked in his favor. Last year, as Bruce showed his inabiity to adjust, Heisey played the most he's played and his numbers dropped.

[Tuff Nut]

Henry Rodriguez up from AAA to replace Phillips (paternity leave),
Heisey activated from DL, and Lutz sent back to AA Pensacola.
I'm all for having HRod stick around when BP comes back, and do what ever we have to, with Hannahan. Give the kid some due. Surely he can hit as well as .200, for what ever Hannahan is wiffing.

[RedEye]

Might be. Then we'd see different results in time. I don't believe it's random variance here. It's just being exposed. It ususally is with guys in their 3rd or 4th year. I don't think there is any question that early in Heisey's career Dusty was hand-picking the match-ups that worked in his favor. Last year, as Bruce showed his inabiity to adjust, Heisey played the most he's played and his numbers dropped.

I have nothing to contradict what you are saying, though I don't remember ever hearing that Dusty was "hand picking" Heisey's matchups in 2010-11. Seems unlikely that could be an overarching explanation since there are game based strategy decisions that are dictated more by things other than the players involved.

As for the comparison to Bruce, I am not sure that's entirely fair either. Heisey has never been the unquestioned starter and allowed to play through his slumps like Jay has. Some of that has been his fault, but some has been circumstantial as well.

[reds44]

I'm all for having HRod stick around when BP comes back, and do what ever we have to, with Hannahan. Give the kid some due. Surely he can hit as well as .200, for what ever Hannahan is wiffing.
He has a .644 OPS in AAA after a .597 OPS in AAA last year.

He's bad.