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RedLegsToday
07-07-2013, 09:24 AM
Juan is hitting .289/.402/.508 in 54 games at Bakersfield. Has 35bb/37k and has already tied his career high in HR. Don't know much about him other than he's never hit for power like this before. Is this a real breakout or a California League illusion? What is his upside?

At the least, he seems to be the most interesting prospect of the 4 Juan's in Bakersfield. :)

mth123
07-07-2013, 10:35 AM
Funny that you started this thread. I was about to start one about Silva. Now that his OPS has reached the .900 level, I wonder if it's time for a promotion to AA. Not sure if he's eligible for the Arizona Fall League, but I wouldn't mind seeing him go there if he can. Silva will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I'm guessing the Reds will put him on the 40 man roster at some point. If he's not eligible for the AFL, I'd like to see him play in the Puerto Rican Winter League. I think he might be an alternative in the CF mix if Billy Hamilton crashes and burns. More realistically, he could be a decent 4th OF type with good defense that seems to be at least adequate for CF and his LH bat with strong splits against RHP make him a decent candidate for the bigger side of a platoon. His scouting report at draft time projected plus speed and "a right-field type arm." I have a good feeling about Silva being able to contribute at the big league level, possibly before the end of 2014.

Here is a thread from about a year ago where Silva was discussed.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=96677&highlight=Juan+Silva

And here is a link to the Scouting Report that Mario-Rijo posted when Silva was drafted.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1895004&postcount=32

This report predicted that he would add power as he continues to get stronger, so maybe it's not all the California League.

klw
07-07-2013, 06:00 PM
Here is something to consider whenever looking at power numbers for Bakersfield players. Their home park is 354 to center.

http://redsminorleagues.com/2012/10/01/park-factors-how-the-cincinnati-reds-affiliates-home-parks-play/

The home park for the Bakersfield Blaze is Sam Lynn Ballpark has dimensions of 328 feet down both lines and just 354 feet to center field, all with 15 foot walls. Left field is a tad short, but also has a high wall. With that said, left field in Bakersfield boosts both hits and power. Average on balls in play were boosted by 32 points at home compared to the road and isolated power was boosted by 36 points. Center field played rather hitter friendly, as you would expect at just 354 feet. Average was boosted by 61 points and isolated power was boosted by 128 points. Right field at Sam Lynn decreased average by 8 points but boosted isolated power by 22 points. Overall, in a league that boosts hitting numbers the friendly field in Bakersfield boosts them even more. While the power to left and right isn’t boosted by much, the average does get a healthy boost to left and center and power to center field gets a rather large boost.

Ohayou
07-07-2013, 11:26 PM
Why don't you ask Selsky?

mth123
11-28-2013, 09:44 AM
Juan Silva has started well in the Puerto Rican Winter League. After about 70 PAs he is currently 3rd in the league in OPS. His line is .302/.471/.472/.943. He seems to have some on base ability, his power is still developing and I understand that he is more than competent defensively in the OF corners. He can play and has played CF, but reports are his range is a little iffy. I don't know much about his arm.

He should be ready for AA this year and only turns 23 in January. I still don't understand why this kid isn't more highly regarded. His splits were fairly big in 2012, but not as dramatic in 2013. He's put up over an .800 OPS the last 2 seasons against RHP. He just seems like a guy who would be useful on a big league roster down the road.

I freely admit that I know nothing more than the old scouting reports from his pre-draft timing and the stat lines, so what am I missing about this player that keeps him so under the radar?

nemesis
11-28-2013, 12:10 PM
Juan Silva has started well in the Puerto Rican Winter League. After about 70 PAs he is currently 3rd in the league in OPS. His line is .302/.471/.472/.943. He seems to have some on base ability, his power is still developing and I understand that he is more than competent defensively in the OF corners. He can play and has played CF, but reports are his range is a little iffy. I don't know much about his arm.

He should be ready for AA this year and only turns 23 in January. I still don't understand why this kid isn't more highly regarded. His splits were fairly big in 2012, but not as dramatic in 2013. He's put up over an .800 OPS the last 2 seasons against RHP. He just seems like a guy who would be useful on a big league roster down the road.

I freely admit that I know nothing more than the old scouting reports from his pre-draft timing and the stat lines, so what am I missing about this player that keeps him so under the radar?

He just doesn't do anything that makes you say WOW!

If Yorman was putting up these kinds of numbers he'd be a BA top 50 prospect. I suspect in the Bowden era he'd be considered a top 5 prospect though.

Of situation in the minors:

Hamilton - CF
Fellhauser - COF
LaMarre - CF
Lutz - COF
Smith - COF
Yorman - RF/CF
Waldrop - COF
Duran - COF
Selesky - COF

That's 9 OF's the organization has above him.

Then you have:

Ervin - OF
Winker - LF
Rosa - COF

Rght behind him with way more potenital.

He might be better served as a trade piece in an organization who would value him more. He is just kinda lost in the shuffle by all the projectiblity and tools from other players.

mth123
11-28-2013, 02:49 PM
His on base % of .408, .380 and .386 the last three years makes me say wow.

dougdirt
11-28-2013, 03:16 PM
His on base % of .408, .380 and .386 the last three years makes me say wow.

I am more "wowwed" by the fact that he has slugged .413, .413 and .414 each of the last three years while hitting .271, .271 and .293.

Consistent.

mth123
11-28-2013, 03:43 PM
I am more "wowwed" by the fact that he has slugged .413, .413 and .414 each of the last three years while hitting .271, .271 and .293.

Consistent.

That too.

PepperJack
11-28-2013, 04:35 PM
Was anything ever confirmed about him now being a Dodger, or was that just a glitch?

His MILB page still lists him with LA.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572136

marcshoe
11-29-2013, 01:54 AM
Was anything ever confirmed about him now being a Dodger, or was that just a glitch?

His MILB page still lists him with LA.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572136

It looks like BP does as well, and this site (http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/11/down-on-the-farm-winter-leagues-update-seager-pederson-alexander-guerrero-gordon-reed/) has him included among Dodger prospects playing winter ball. Doug, do you know anything about this?