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Will M
11-11-2013, 12:41 PM
I haven't seen much discussion about Ludwick's performance next year. I know that some folks blame his poor 2013 on his coming back too soon following his injury. I am more pessimistic that that. He was ok in 2010, replacement level in 2011, good in 2012 & injured/bad in 2013. He is 35 years old & had a major injury last year which can zap power. I'm concerned that he is closer to toast than to an 800 OPS bat.

Steamer has Ludwick at 243/312/416 & 0.4 WAR for 2014. Thats kinda what I have been thinking.

What do other folks think about Ludwick? What are your projections?

*BaseClogger*
11-11-2013, 12:47 PM
I'm with you. I think he'll still give you some decent ABs but he's old, right-handed, and plays bad defense.

It would be much better for the Reds to unload Ludwick than BP...

PepperJack
11-11-2013, 01:03 PM
I think he will fall somewhere between an average of .260-.285, I could see an OBP in the .330-.350 range, I don't think he will have the pop he had in 2012 though. I think the .450 range is likely aiming high.

*BaseClogger*
11-11-2013, 01:16 PM
I think he will fall somewhere between an average of .260-.285, I could see an OBP in the .330-.350 range, I don't think he will have the pop he had in 2012 though. I think the .450 range is likely aiming high.

He's a career .262/.332/.460 hitter so in other words you don't see much of a decline?

PepperJack
11-11-2013, 01:26 PM
He's a career .262/.332/.460 hitter so in other words you don't see much of a decline?


He fits the ballpark, gets rested at least 1/3 of the time, and will have a full offseason. I also think he rushed himself back, and couldn't lift weights through his rehab, I'm sure that played a role.

The guy said Petco messed up his swing, and claimed it took him along time to get it back. The Ludwick the Reds got in 2012 looked a lot closer to the Cardinals version, than the Padres/Pirates version.

I doubt he has any more big seasons, but I could see his career average numbers in a possible case sure.

Kc61
11-11-2013, 01:47 PM
I am very optimistic. GABP suits him. Last year was meaningless as an indicator.
I can't understand pessimism on Ludwick based on a lost, injured season.

*BaseClogger*
11-11-2013, 01:58 PM
I can't understand pessimism on Ludwick based on a lost, injured season.

Because he'll turn 36 and had a rather serious injury?

*BaseClogger*
11-11-2013, 02:04 PM
I'd love for woy or any other poster to do a search for the list of players who have produced at least a .800 OPS as a 35 year-old or older when their career OPS is less than .800...

Will M
11-11-2013, 02:37 PM
I am very optimistic. GABP suits him. Last year was meaningless as an indicator.
I can't understand pessimism on Ludwick based on a lost, injured season.


Because he'll turn 36 and had a rather serious injury?

That's my thought as well.

wheels
11-11-2013, 02:42 PM
I think he'd make a heck of a fourth outfielder.

Mitri
11-11-2013, 02:58 PM
I think he'd make a heck of a fourth outfielder.

My thoughts exactly.

I'd love to see the Reds upgrade both available OF spots and part ways with guys like Heisey, Paul and Robinson.

Bruce/Hamilton/Joyce/Venable/Ludwick could be done, and it wouldn't take much in the way of trades. That would be a mighty productive outfield.

oneupper
11-11-2013, 03:36 PM
I hope he goes all Raul Ibaņez for us.

joshua
11-11-2013, 03:49 PM
Ludwick is going to stink it up this year. I think .249/.320 sounds about right. I'm glad Dusty won't be here to give him as many AB's as possible.

kpresidente
11-11-2013, 04:21 PM
Maaaybe he wouldn't be a terrible DH. I think we should try and dump him on an AL team. (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/dh/league/al/sort/OPS/minpa/200)

Kc61
11-11-2013, 04:26 PM
Because he'll turn 36 and had a rather serious injury?

He'll be 36 in July and on Opening Day it will be a year since his injury. It was a shoulder injury, serious, but he's not a pitcher and I haven't read anywhere that it's unlikely to heal fully by then.

I'd prefer a Bautista, but if the Reds choose to upgrade other positions and keep Ludwick for next year, I think he'll be successful. Ballpark is good for him.

I'd like to see the Reds add a few more players of Ludwick's general caliber. Solid, not spectacular, not too costly. Along with one more star to replace Choo.

cincinnati chili
11-11-2013, 06:07 PM
One decent year since 2008. If the Reds are supposed to count on a good year from him in order to win the division, they're out of their minds.

westofyou
11-11-2013, 06:09 PM
Since 2010 here are the OF's 36 or older who have gotten at least 350 ab's in a season


5 NL guys



OPS YEAR OPS AB AGE
1 Magglio Ordonez 2010 .852 323 36 Tigers
2 Carlos Beltran 2013 .830 554 36 Cardinals
3 Alfonso Soriano 2012 .821 561 36 Cubs
4 Torii Hunter 2012 .817 534 36 Angels
5 Torii Hunter 2013 .800 606 37 Tigers
6 Raul Ibanez 2013 .793 454 41 Mariners
7 Raul Ibanez 2010 .793 561 38 Phillies
8 Alfonso Soriano 2013 .791 581 37 Cubs/Yankees
9 Bobby Abreu 2010 .787 573 36 Angels
10 Raul Ibanez 2012 .761 384 40 Yankees
11 Ichiro Suzuki 2010 .754 680 36 Mariners
12 Raul Ibanez 2011 .707 535 39 Phillies
13 Ichiro Suzuki 2012 .696 629 38 Mariners/Yankees
14 Ichiro Suzuki 2011 .645 677 37 Mariners
15 Ichiro Suzuki 2013 .639 520 39 Yankees
16 Magglio Ordonez 2011 .634 329 37 Tigers

mbgrayson
11-11-2013, 06:38 PM
Bill James 2014 Handbook projection:

Ryan Ludwick: .249/.319/.429 for an OPS of .748 with 16 HRs in 401 ABs.

Ludwick will turn 36 on July 13th next summer.

Red Swagger
11-11-2013, 06:58 PM
Reds have some serious questions this offseason.

Ludwick?
Broxton?
Trading Phillips?
Trading Bailey?
Chapman in the rotation?
Billy Hamilton in CF Opening Day?
Choo?
Hanigan being traded?
Arroyo coming back?

Back up SS?
Improve the bench?
Heisey/Paul?
Parra?

Who closes?

MoneyInTheBank
11-11-2013, 07:03 PM
Reds have some serious questions this offseason.

Ludwick?
Broxton?
Trading Phillips?
Trading Bailey?
Chapman in the rotation?
Billy Hamilton in CF Opening Day?
Choo?
Hanigan being traded?
Arroyo coming back?

Back up SS?
Improve the bench?
Heisey/Paul?
Parra?

Who closes?

Walt has his work cut out for him. That's for sure

*BaseClogger*
11-12-2013, 09:22 AM
Bill James 2014 Handbook projection:

Ryan Ludwick: .249/.319/.429 for an OPS of .748 with 16 HRs in 401 ABs.

Ludwick will turn 36 on July 13th next summer.

Even if Ludwick were to produce this (and I call it optimistic, which James's projections are known to be) there would still be another 250 LF ABs to be given to somebody. And with his mediocore (I'm leaving this typo because DID I JUST INVENT A NEW GENRE OF MUSIC!?!?!) defense it wouldn't be that much of an upgrade over 2013...

RiverRat13
11-12-2013, 10:49 AM
Find a lefty bat to platoon with him in LF if the budget doesn't allow a total upgrade.

oregonred
11-12-2013, 10:54 AM
Let him play with a Cardinal uniform. Admitedly this will look a bit strange especially during the post game handshakes, but he'd probably post a career .900 OPS year for us next season...

REDREAD
11-12-2013, 11:18 AM
A lot of pessemism here.
Not saying it's not justified :lol:

Call me crazy, but I liked what I saw in Ludwick coming back at the end of the season. The results did not show up in the stats, but he can still hit. Hopefully, he feels better over the winter and can resume lifting weights. The GAB is a perfect place for Ludwick to play.
I will even go out on a limb and predict a 780 OPS or better for him.
He won't be the monster he was in 2012, but he will be a pleasant surprise, given the low expectations set for him.

RedsManRick
11-12-2013, 11:47 AM
One thing I realized in my breakdown of Hamilton's possible 2014 slash, which I didn't fully appreciate before, is the significant role of power in driving solid batting averages.

A guy who strikes out 20% of the time and who has a .300 BABIP is a .240 hitter if he has no power. Give that guy 20 HR in 600 PA and he's a .270 hitter.

Give him a bunch of walks too and that average skyrockets because the AB total comes down, just ask Miggy or Votto.

Thee reason Ludwick hit .240 last year is because he had an ISO under .100. With a guy like him, who strikes out a fair amount and doesn't walk a ton, his overall slash line is quite sensitive to his power output. It's just like we saw in San Diego. If Ludwick is healthy, and he should be, I expect the power to return., driving his whole slash line back up.

Personally, I'd project him at .255/.325/.440. That's a .335 wOBA, which would have placed him 4th on the Reds, between Bruce's .344 and Frazier's .319.

Tom Servo
05-10-2014, 01:42 PM
Not much power yet but still I have been happy with Ludwick's 2014 performance thus far.

Raisor
05-10-2014, 05:03 PM
Not much power yet but still I have been happy with Ludwick's 2014 performance thus far.

NL LF OPS 718
Ludwick 738

NeilHamburger
05-10-2014, 05:41 PM
When the weather heats up and the Reds play a bunch of games at home (they didn't play much at home in April) you'll see the power from Ludwick.

I think he'll have over an .800 OPS this year if he stays healthy.

HokieRed
05-10-2014, 07:00 PM
I'm still looking for about .770 from him if he stays healthy, and that seems to me about what we're paying for.

Raisor
05-10-2014, 07:06 PM
I'm still looking for about .770 from him if he stays healthy, and that seems to me about what we're paying for.


Don't worry about the money.

klw
05-10-2014, 10:15 PM
I'm still looking for about .770 from him if he stays healthy, and that seems to me about what we're paying for.

He better keep his OBP down near his BA- the Reds are not paying him to walk.

Playadlc
06-09-2014, 10:18 PM
That last bases loaded AB by Ryan Ludwick was so spectacularly bad I felt a Ludwick thread should be bumped to talk about it.

Has to the worst AB by any Reds player this season.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-09-2014, 10:21 PM
That last bases loaded AB by Ryan Ludwick was so spectacularly bad I felt a Ludwick thread should be bumped to talk about it.

Has to the worst AB by any Reds player this season.

And that's saying something. I'm just tired of watching him play.

757690
06-09-2014, 10:24 PM
He hit a homer and was 2 for 4 tonight, lol.

I agree that AB was atrocious but if you're going on one AB tonight, you could say, sign him to a long term deal based on his homer.

paulrichjr
06-09-2014, 10:24 PM
That last bases loaded AB by Ryan Ludwick was so spectacularly bad I felt a Ludwick thread should be bumped to talk about it.

Has to the worst AB by any Reds player this season.

I don't know. There has to be at least another 100 "worst ABs" this year that could make the vote close.

Marc D
06-09-2014, 10:27 PM
Reds have some serious questions this offseason.

Ludwick?
Broxton?
Trading Phillips?
Trading Bailey?
Chapman in the rotation?
Billy Hamilton in CF Opening Day?
Choo?
Hanigan being traded?
Arroyo coming back?

Back up SS?
Improve the bench?
Heisey/Paul?
Parra?

Who closes?


Walt has his work cut out for him. That's for sure

I would vote for Walts off season as the ugliest swing and miss of of the year.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-09-2014, 10:40 PM
"We like what we have."

Tony Cloninger
06-09-2014, 10:43 PM
He's still a hack with no clear understanding of the situation and the fact this pitcher is wild and has been wild since he came on.

But let's face it. RISP.... not a good stat for the Reds. Guy could be 3 for 3 and look licked in but get some runners on and his sphincter gets tighter....bat becomes an unknown apparatus in their hands.

50YrRedsFan
06-09-2014, 10:43 PM
"We like what we have."

I guess the front office likes mediocrity.

757690
06-09-2014, 11:17 PM
He's still a hack with no clear understanding of the situation and the fact this pitcher is wild and has been wild since he came on.

But let's face it. RISP.... not a good stat for the Reds. Guy could be 3 for 3 and look licked in but get some runners on and his sphincter gets tighter....bat becomes an unknown apparatus in their hands.

Ludwick had a .297 BA and .810 OPS with RISP this year.

BluegrassRedleg
06-09-2014, 11:24 PM
I don't know. There has to be at least another 100 "worst ABs" this year that could make the vote close.

Zach Cozart owns about 95 of those.

WVRedsFan
06-09-2014, 11:30 PM
Ludwick had a .297 BA and .810 OPS with RISP this year.
Also scored/drove in one of our two runs. Yeah, that was a screwed up AB, but you can also add A couple more players to a list of bad at bats. Lots of blame to go around.

Brutus
06-09-2014, 11:32 PM
I guess the front office likes mediocrity.

I'm honestly not sure why they bothered trading for Latos, extending Votto/Bruce/Bailey/Phillips or signing Broxton, Chapman, etc. in the past several years. They're committed so well to mediocrity, all that seems like a waste of time.

WVRedsFan
06-09-2014, 11:46 PM
I'm honestly not sure why they bothered trading for Latos, extending Votto/Bruce/Bailey/Phillips or signing Broxton, Chapman, etc. in the past several years. They're committed so well to mediocrity, all that seems like a waste of time.the philosophy was pitching and defense. How many years have fans cried for offense only to be treated to guys like Cozart, Heisey, Hanahan, Bernidina, a host of over the hill mistakes, and a weak bench. When Bruce, Votto, Phillips, and Frazier slump, three runs are the norm (maybe two lately). It was and is a flawed plan, and it worked for the Dusty years, but no more.

Tom Servo
06-10-2014, 12:27 AM
Reds were third in the NL in runs scored last year, ninth in 2012 when they won 97 games, and first in 2010 when they won 91.



I really think Reds fans should watch another team day in and day out and realize that they go through all of the same droughts and struggles as the Reds do.

tomnuetten
06-10-2014, 03:28 AM
after a 2-4 night with a hr, we start to pick on Ludwick?

obviously a poor at bat, but he had lots of worse days (and others aswell)... Iīm not a fan of this ludwick this season, but I still prefer him over heisey

RedTeamGo!
06-10-2014, 07:15 AM
He hit a homer and was 2 for 4 tonight, lol.

I agree that AB was atrocious but if you're going on one AB tonight, you could say, sign him to a long term deal based on his homer.

a homer is a homer, but let's be honest - that home run was a warning track flyout in 29/30 ballparks.

Raisor
06-10-2014, 08:00 AM
a homer is a homer, but let's be honest - that home run was a warning track flyout in 29/30 ballparks.

If we are going down this road we might as well just pack it in as a franchise.

Kc61
06-10-2014, 08:01 AM
Reds were third in the NL in runs scored last year, ninth in 2012 when they won 97 games, and first in 2010 when they won 91.



I really think Reds fans should watch another team day in and day out and realize that they go through all of the same droughts and struggles as the Reds do.

Not sure I'd take much solace from 2013. The offense was carried on three sets of shoulders. And once Choo left it was patently obvious that the offense would struggle without a meaningful offensive replacement.

All teams have struggles and bad years, but not so many during their "window" period when the needs are obvious but not responded to.

RedTeamGo!
06-10-2014, 08:04 AM
If we are going down this road we might as well just pack it in as a franchise.

Why? I am just saying although it was indeed a home run, it wasn't exactly an indication of good things to come. In most parks that is an easy out for the left fielder, and Ludwick would be getting destroyed today.

I am not really one to rail on Ludwick as much as the next redszoner, it is time for him to go, but I understood the contract at the time it was signed, and am not going to rip on him every chance I get.

bucksfan2
06-10-2014, 09:12 AM
Why? I am just saying although it was indeed a home run, it wasn't exactly an indication of good things to come. In most parks that is an easy out for the left fielder, and Ludwick would be getting destroyed today.

I am not really one to rail on Ludwick as much as the next redszoner, it is time for him to go, but I understood the contract at the time it was signed, and am not going to rip on him every chance I get.

GABP is full of cheap shot HR's. If Ludwick didn't play 81 of his games there I would have more of an issue with it.

Yesterday after his laughable double play to stunt a rally I wondered how much time he has left as a Red. He has seen his playing time drastically cut to the point where he is no longer a starter. The idea Heisey getting more playing time may be worse. Schumaker should be getting time against RHP. Lutz is a lefty so he would be biding time with Skip. But there really isn't anyone better closer to the majors.

Tom Servo
06-10-2014, 10:13 AM
Not sure I'd take much solace from 2013. The offense was carried on three sets of shoulders. And once Choo left it was patently obvious that the offense would struggle without a meaningful offensive replacement.

All teams have struggles and bad years, but not so many during their "window" period when the needs are obvious but not responded to.
I'm not defending this year, obviously they aren't scoring many runs, but rather I am responding to the notion that the Reds offense has been anemic for years under Jocketty.

wheels
06-10-2014, 01:12 PM
He's still a hack with no clear understanding of the situation and the fact this pitcher is wild and has been wild since he came on.

But let's face it. RISP.... not a good stat for the Reds. Guy could be 3 for 3 and look licked in but get some runners on and his sphincter gets tighter....bat becomes an unknown apparatus in their hands.

Best use of "sphincter" in 2014.

reds44
06-10-2014, 01:15 PM
Reds were third in the NL in runs scored last year, ninth in 2012 when they won 97 games, and first in 2010 when they won 91.



I really think Reds fans should watch another team day in and day out and realize that they go through all of the same droughts and struggles as the Reds do.
Sometimes I swear people just started following the Reds in 2010.

OGB
06-10-2014, 01:24 PM
Not sure I'd take much solace from 2013. The offense was carried on three sets of shoulders. And once Choo left it was patently obvious that the offense would struggle without a meaningful offensive replacement.

All teams have struggles and bad earmarks?t not so many during their "window" period when the needs are obvious but not responded to.

Window?
Is that implying that they won't be competitive sometime soon? I brought this up in the "blow it up" thread, teams with top half payrolls don't have windows unless you believe their front office is incompetent as far managing the farm. Do Cardinals fans talk about their window?

Marc D
06-10-2014, 03:53 PM
Window?
Is that implying that they won't be competitive sometime soon? I brought this up in the "blow it up" thread, teams with top half payrolls don't have windows unless you believe their front office is incompetent as far managing the farm. Do Cardinals fans talk about their window?


I agree in theory but as a Reds fan of the past 43 years, the painful memory of windows is a hard thing to get past.

I could unfortunately see see a period of time in the not too distant future where there isn't enough cheap young talent from the farm to offset the negative impact of a seriously declined Votto/Phillips offensive core.

tomnuetten
06-10-2014, 04:37 PM
Sometimes I swear people just started following the Reds in 2010.

hey I started to follow the reds on a (nearly) daily basis in 2010 and yet I can still understand that other teams have similar or worse "problems"

BungleBengals
08-18-2014, 01:48 PM
Ludwick seemed to hit well in Colorado. I know Colorado is a hitter's ballpark, but it seemed like Ludwick had a better eye for the ball and made better contact. I went and looked up his splits on baseball reference and it appears that he is hitting a lot better in the last few weeks.

Last 14 days, he is hitting .276/.333/.552

Last 7 days, he is hitting .357/.412/.857

While we all know that Ludwick has been up and down all year, if he can stay up the rest of the month, does anyone see him getting moved? I think the July trade deadline saw a lot of pitching moved, but not a lot of offense. Does anyone see Ludwick getting moved by the August deadline? I haven't kept up much this year on the happenings in the MLB, usually, I avoid watching Sportscenter when the Reds lose which has happened way too much this year.

muethibp
08-18-2014, 01:56 PM
He would surely clear waivers as no team would pay $6MM (the $1.5MM or so of 2014 salary plus the $4.5MM buyout) for 6 weeks of Ludwick. So he can be dealt this month and he should be if any team is willing to help with the money he's owed.

Tom Servo
08-18-2014, 02:04 PM
Atlanta would be a great fit for Ludwick if only they weren't so committed to playing BJ Upton because of that terrible contract.

Kc61
08-18-2014, 02:05 PM
Reds would probably have to pay most of the buyout in any trade. Maybe you can get someone to take on the rest of Lud's 2014 salary. But the buyout? Hard to see. Lot of money for a month of Ludwick plus any playoffs.

reds44
08-18-2014, 02:10 PM
104 OPS+ on the year. Really have no idea why Skip Schumaker ever plays over him, but hey what do I know?

BungleBengals
08-18-2014, 02:44 PM
Reds would probably have to pay most of the buyout in any trade. Maybe you can get someone to take on the rest of Lud's 2014 salary. But the buyout? Hard to see. Lot of money for a month of Ludwick plus any playoffs.

It would be tough to swallow paying $4.5M for nothing (no Ludwick), but I wouldn't count the Reds out of doing it. IIRC, they are paying Dusty $3M this year. If we could get a prospect for him out of it too, it might be worthwhile.

corkedbat
08-18-2014, 02:51 PM
It would be tough to swallow paying $4.5M for nothing (no Ludwick), but I wouldn't count the Reds out of doing it. IIRC, they are paying Dusty $3M this year. If we could get a prospect for him out of it too, it might be worthwhile.

Another colossally stupid contract by Walt and unless the Reds pay much of the remainder to stand a sliver of a chance of dealing him. Even at that I don't see any takers. Just gotta hope that the front office is willing to sack up and buy him out. Colossally stupid.

BungleBengals
08-18-2014, 02:58 PM
Another colossally stupid contract by Walt and unless the Reds pay much of the remainder to stand a sliver of a chance of dealing him. Even at that I don't see any takers. Just gotta hope that the front office is willing to sack up and buy him out. Colossally stupid.

The front office can't change anything from the past, despite the obvious stupidity in Ludwick's and other contracts, I think that Walt can still redeem himself. This season is on the verge of being lost. By the end of August, it will most likely be lost. If we can find a way to move Ludwick and possibly get a prospect in return. Then I think Walt will at least be somewhat redeemed. His balks during the last two trade deadlines and the 2013 offseason can never be made up, but at least we will know he is not napping come the deadlines if he finds a way to move Ludwick and at least get something back for the vastly amount of money we have overpaid him since the end of 2012.

TRF
08-18-2014, 04:30 PM
104 OPS+ on the year. Really have no idea why Skip Schumaker ever plays over him, but hey what do I know?

.257 .317 .362 .679 against RH pitching.

Of course Schumaker is worse.. but then it's probably desperation. Plus Schumaker seems better defensively. But then so is a lawn gnome.

I mean why can't the Reds have a Travis Snyder in LF? I really thought that is what Heisey was. I just don't get how exposed he became as a hitter.

Tom Servo
08-18-2014, 04:57 PM
I mean why can't the Reds have a Travis Snyder in LF? I really thought that is what Heisey was. I just don't get how exposed he became as a hitter.
We can't have nice things.

kpresidente
08-18-2014, 05:05 PM
Travis Snyder had .652 and .614 OPSs in 2012 and 2013 respectively. He IS Chris Heisey, only minus the above average defense.

TRF
08-18-2014, 05:10 PM
Travis Snyder had .652 and .614 OPSs in 2012 and 2013 respectively. He IS Chris Heisey, only minus the above average defense.

And yet, instead of regressing, he's actually progressing.

kpresidente
08-18-2014, 05:29 PM
And yet, instead of regressing, he's actually progressing.

It's more like random variation over half season samples. I'd expect Schumaker to equal Snider's bat next year, and Heisey his WAR.

tomnuetten
08-18-2014, 05:52 PM
Another colossally stupid contract by Walt and unless the Reds pay much of the remainder to stand a sliver of a chance of dealing him. Even at that I don't see any takers. Just gotta hope that the front office is willing to sack up and buy him out. Colossally stupid.

the contract wasnīt that bad. the buy out was only placed to have more room for 2013 and 14... he was great in 12 and injured his shoulder on first day 13. after that he was out very long, couldnīt workout as usual (because of the shoulder)...

he is a slow starter (was the same in 12) and with the long injury he didnīt have much time to get going.

he is not a good fielder and his season so far is nothing youīll talk about in the future, yet he has the 4th best OPS on the team (4th in OBP and 4th in SLG)

DocRed
08-18-2014, 05:57 PM
Man Ludwick gets some serious hate here (4th in Red's OPS behind Mes, Voto and Frazier)....while I don't love the guy he is the FAR from our worst player from a Pay/Production perspective. I will keep who I think is worse for fear of being lynched by this angry mob.....

TRF
08-19-2014, 09:03 AM
Man Ludwick gets some serious hate here (4th in Red's OPS behind Mes, Voto and Frazier)....while I don't love the guy he is the FAR from our worst player from a Pay/Production perspective. I will keep who I think is worse for fear of being lynched by this angry mob.....

yeah yeah.. Bruce.

In a vaccuum, I'd agree. But Bruce isn't any of the following:


Over 30
Over 35
Coming off an injury that cost him a year.
Has an injury history
Was only really good about 7 years ago.
Has no future in Cincinnati as a productive regular member of the Reds.


He is however:


Playing on an injured knee that probably is not at full strength.
Playing with a heavy heart due to a death in the family.
Playing on a team decimated by injuries to key players other than himself.


It's been a craptastic season. But seriously, a little perspective is not a bad thing.

BungleBengals
08-20-2014, 10:57 AM
Ludwick had a good game last night. At this point, I am rooting for him to perform well so some team will take him off our hands at the August deadline.

REDREAD
08-20-2014, 11:05 AM
Well, there's some comfort in the fact that this season was just not our year.
Sure, not mathematically eliminated yet, but for all intents and purposes, the horrible play right after the all star break took us out of the race. And yea, largely due to injuries piling up.

The point is, it's likely that Ludwick will get bought out this offseason and a new whipping boy for LF will be brought in. I don't really understand all the anger about Ludwick this year either. He had a major injury last year, one that he's probably never going to recover from. Stuff happens. This so reminds me of all the anger Walt got for signing Lincoln to a 2 year deal, then Lincoln gets hurt and Walt was an idiot.
Every team loses money to injured players, it's just part of the game.

After 2012, it made sense to give Ludwick the contract that he got. Maybe the $$ were a little high.. but the options were bring back Ludwick (who just had a great season), play Heisey, or trade prospects for another LF that might not be as good as a healthy Ludwick projected too. When people like Gomes are getting big money as FA OF, signing Ludwick made a lot of sense.. In a situation like that, you got to pay market value to keep the guy, due to supply and demand. That's what "Win now" mode means.

oneupper
08-20-2014, 12:41 PM
Well, there's some comfort in the fact that this season was just not our year.
Sure, not mathematically eliminated yet, but for all intents and purposes, the horrible play right after the all star break took us out of the race. And yea, largely due to injuries piling up.

The point is, it's likely that Ludwick will get bought out this offseason and a new whipping boy for LF will be brought in. I don't really understand all the anger about Ludwick this year either. He had a major injury last year, one that he's probably never going to recover from. Stuff happens. This so reminds me of all the anger Walt got for signing Lincoln to a 2 year deal, then Lincoln gets hurt and Walt was an idiot.
Every team loses money to injured players, it's just part of the game.

After 2012, it made sense to give Ludwick the contract that he got. Maybe the $$ were a little high.. but the options were bring back Ludwick (who just had a great season), play Heisey, or trade prospects for another LF that might not be as good as a healthy Ludwick projected too. When people like Gomes are getting big money as FA OF, signing Ludwick made a lot of sense.. In a situation like that, you got to pay market value to keep the guy, due to supply and demand. That's what "Win now" mode means.

I don't agree. Traders in the financial markets like to say "Plan your trade, and then Trade your Plan". Ludwick was brought in as a cheap alternative for LF. It cost all of $2 million for 2012. For one year and an option (mutual for $5 mm for the next). It worked out wonderfully, the team got its money worth. (I didn't like the signing, but the price was worth the gamble). The plan, it seems was that Ludwick was a 1 year stop gap which could be jettisoned if it didn't work or even put on the bench or worked into a platoon.

Instead of going for another alternative in the 2012 offseason, they decided to "double down" on Ludwick, committing much more money and effectively blocking the position for other alternatives in the years following. It didn't work.
Cheap Ludwick was a flyer. Expensive Ludwick was expected to produce.

So they won the $2 mm "bet" and lost miserably on the $15 mm "sure thing". Only it was -surprise- the same guy. What happened? They changed the plan. That lack of discipline cost the team.

Rojo
08-20-2014, 12:49 PM
The point is, it's likely that Ludwick will get bought out this offseason and a new whipping boy for LF will be brought in. I don't really understand all the anger about Ludwick this year either. He had a major injury last year, one that he's probably never going to recover from. Stuff happens.

And more stuff happens to players over 35. I like the Walt Jocketty that trades parts for big pieces (Latos). I don't like the Walt Jockety that signs spare parts to multi-year deals. It gives ammunition to the Walt's lazy crowd, you've got to churn that roster.

Far East
08-20-2014, 02:12 PM
I've only read page 6, so please forgive if the following is redundant, but I hope that currently the Reds are showcasing Ludwick in hopes of catching some prospects via waiver wire.
Does some AL contender need an elder DH or help against southpaw pitching?

Rojo
08-20-2014, 02:39 PM
Does some AL contender need an elder DH or help against southpaw pitching?

Angels?

BungleBengals
08-20-2014, 03:27 PM
Angels?

Looks like Mariners might need some offensive help.

REDREAD
08-21-2014, 04:10 PM
ly on the $15 mm "sure thing". Only it was -surprise- the same guy. What happened? They changed the plan. That lack of discipline cost the team.

Sure in hindsight, it didn't work out.
But if he didn't hurt his shoulder, it might have worked out.
The guy posted an 877 OPS in 2012. There was room for some normal regression due to aging to happen and for Ludwick to still be a decent player.
But apparently, the shoulder injury killed his power.


Here's the list of free agent OF that were available after 2012 season
http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2012/position/of
Slim pickings and the good players got good paydays.
Ludwick at 2/14 million or Gomes at 2/10? Give me Ludwick.

So, why let a 877 OPS guy walk and be forced to trade for a guy that might not be as good?
The Ludwick signing was defensible, IMO.

REDREAD
08-21-2014, 04:16 PM
And more stuff happens to players over 35. I like the Walt Jocketty that trades parts for big pieces (Latos). I don't like the Walt Jockety that signs spare parts to multi-year deals. It gives ammunition to the Walt's lazy crowd, you've got to churn that roster.

Well, not to be repetitive, but there's another post I made with the FA OF that were available.
No value buys there.
Sure, Walt could've traded for a guy, but then Redszone would cry about the prospects sent away when we could've just used Ludwick as a bridge..
The other option I guess would've been to keep Stubbs and let Ludwick go (with Choo backfilling Ludwick instead of Stubbs), but I'm sure that wouldn't have been popular here either.
Walt does churn the roster, it's just not really possible to do it at the pace most people expect.

membengal
08-21-2014, 05:25 PM
Nelson Cruz signed in Baltimore for $8 million dollars. He has played LF for them in addition to DH'ing. He was a bargain buy. Many here mentioned he would be worth it. Many more worried about his glove. Turns out whatever his glove takes away, his bat gives back with regard to LF.

That was last off-season.

He's been pretty darn good...

Rojo
08-21-2014, 06:11 PM
So, why let a 877 OPS guy walk and be forced to trade for a guy that might not be as good?
The Ludwick signing was defensible, IMO.

Defensible? Ok. But your paying a guy, who's had a pretty spotty career, to perform at a high level in his mid-30's. At the time, I thought it was a big overpay, but I didn't squawk too much because he could've provided depth and maybe more was coming. (Also, hey, it's not my money). In retrospect, I think Walt thought he'd provide solid production for a 2013-2014 window. I think that was a bit wishful.

BluegrassRedleg
08-21-2014, 06:39 PM
On a team that had strong production in 2-3 other spots, you may be able to get by with a Ludwick in LF, but not this team.

jojo
08-21-2014, 07:42 PM
Looks like Mariners might need some offensive help.

He's not a good fit.

REDREAD
08-22-2014, 09:23 AM
Defensible? Ok. But your paying a guy, who's had a pretty spotty career, to perform at a high level in his mid-30's. At the time, I thought it was a big overpay, but I didn't squawk too much because he could've provided depth and maybe more was coming. (Also, hey, it's not my money). In retrospect, I think Walt thought he'd provide solid production for a 2013-2014 window. I think that was a bit wishful.

Fair point, I admit it wasn't without risk.
I didn't expect an almost 900 OPS for the next two years, but it didn't seem too much of a reach that had Ludwick stayed healthy, he would've been adequate.
Obviously, I would've loved to get a young controllable player for LF too that would hit 30 HR/year, but there's not many of those around (not saying you are stating that in your post, but others underestimate the difficulty it is making any kind of trade).
I still take Ludwick at his price over any of the FA OFers, given the Reds limited budget. (Obviously without the crystal ball knowing Ludwick would get hurt)

Old NDN
08-23-2014, 07:31 AM
I've only read page 6, so please forgive if the following is redundant, but I hope that currently the Reds are showcasing Ludwick in hopes of catching some prospects via waiver wire.
Does some AL contender need an elder DH or help against southpaw pitching?

Ludwick wouldn't help anybody. He simply doesn't produce anymore.

Marc D
08-24-2014, 09:36 AM
Sure in hindsight, it didn't work out.
But if he didn't hurt his shoulder, it might have worked out.
The guy posted an 877 OPS in 2012. There was room for some normal regression due to aging to happen and for Ludwick to still be a decent player.
But apparently, the shoulder injury killed his power.


Here's the list of free agent OF that were available after 2012 season
http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2012/position/of
Slim pickings and the good players got good paydays.
Ludwick at 2/14 million or Gomes at 2/10? Give me Ludwick.

So, why let a 877 OPS guy walk and be forced to trade for a guy that might not be as good?
The Ludwick signing was defensible, IMO.

The signing was defensible.

The utter lack of awareness and action after his injury is not.

tomnuetten
08-24-2014, 09:09 PM
Ludwick wouldn't help anybody. He simply doesn't produce anymore.

yet he produced more to the reds offence (not defence obviously) than some reds star players (bruce, phillips). I donīt want to see Ludwick as everyday LF next year again (I still think that he would be a good bench bat) but I donīt get why he is getting that much "hate" from fans while he is the 4th best OPS guy... better than most redszone darlings