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JMO
03-06-2014, 02:01 PM
Latos, Broxton, Marshall and Hannahan most likely won't be ready for OD. That could change of course, its only March 6th. This projection is based off those 4 not being ready for the opener.

Cueto
Bailey
Simon
Cingrani
Leake

Chapman
Hoover
LeCure
Parra
Beato
Jumbo Diaz/Ondrusek/Broxton(if ready)
Partch

I am extremely high on Diaz, he will be a HUGE surprise in 2014. Hannahan to the 60 day DL and Diaz is put on the 40 man. IMHO, I believe Beato will be Simon 2.0. Great claim, good arm. Both Diaz and Beato could be very helpful in the bullpen. More proof that you don't give extensions to BP arms (Broxton and Marshall).

Lineup:

B Hamilton
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Ludwick
Frazier
Mesoraco
Cozart

Heisey
B Pena
Schumaker
Bernadina
Santiago

Bernadina, Santiago and Diaz are not on the 40 man, so 3 moves will need to made in order for projection to work. I believe Latos and Marshall will be put on the DL to start the year, along with Hannahan.

If Broxton is ready for the opener, then Jumbo will not make it. Also, Trevor Bell could be a darkhorse for our bullpen at some point in 14'.

Other guys like Bourgeois, F Perez, T Neal and Iribarren could make an impact in AAA Louisville, we'll see if they make it to Cincinnati.

PeteRoseDay
03-06-2014, 06:51 PM
I like the bullpen and rotation, but my goodness there are so many question marks in that lineup.

Hamilton leading off - what will his OBP be?
Ludwick is old and very injury prone.
Frazier and Cozart seem to have been figured out by the rest of the league.
I could see Mesoraco having a good offensive year, or another not so impressive year.
Phillips has been in decline for some time now.

If the pitching doesn't hold up, especially with the lack of depth, the Reds very well could be fighting for 3rd place.

Rando
03-07-2014, 09:44 AM
Time to get rid of Marshall. He's good but always injured

Rando
03-07-2014, 09:44 AM
Also I think Soto should be playing off the bench. He has earned his time

subchucker
03-07-2014, 11:16 AM
From what I've Read Latos will be ready for game 6. Due to the day off after opening day. Cueto will pitch game 5. So Latos should still be on the opening day roster. Just won't pitch til game 6.

No pants Mcgee
03-07-2014, 12:40 PM
I'm really pulling for Chris Nelson to take over for Hannahan. I know he never lived up to his early 1st round pick expectations, but the guy did hit for an .810 OPS in just under 350 at bats just in 2012.

KYExtemper
03-07-2014, 02:01 PM
As many have said on this board and elsewhere, Hamilton is part of the key of the lineup. If he struggles hitting leadoff that could require Phillips moving to the leadoff spot or significantly shifting the lineup to put someone first that can hit.

I'm not so much concerned with the top of the batting order, though, as the bottom. Frazier is coming off a .234 campaign and we have to hope Ludwick doesn't experience a freak injury like last year. Last season the team was not able to generate production through the entire lineup, so that is something that I am going to keep my eye on during the first two months of the season as it should give a good indication of where we are headed.

No pants Mcgee
03-07-2014, 02:38 PM
As many have said on this board and elsewhere, Hamilton is part of the key of the lineup. If he struggles hitting leadoff that could require Phillips moving to the leadoff spot or significantly shifting the lineup to put someone first that can hit.

I'm not so much concerned with the top of the batting order, though, as the bottom. Frazier is coming off a .234 campaign and we have to hope Ludwick doesn't experience a freak injury like last year. Last season the team was not able to generate production through the entire lineup, so that is something that I am going to keep my eye on during the first two months of the season as it should give a good indication of where we are headed.

I would agree with this. The middle/bottom of the order has to be much improved over a year ago. LF/C production you would almost assume would improve simply because of how atrocious those positions were for the Reds a year ago. 3B/SS really don't have huge ceilings, but in theory based on service time and age Frazier and Cozart should see a slight improvement on their overall numbers. More consistency from those guys and a 120 games with a healthy Ludwick puts a lot less on the shoulders of Billy Hamilton.

Rando
03-07-2014, 03:17 PM
As many have said on this board and elsewhere, Hamilton is part of the key of the lineup. If he struggles hitting leadoff that could require Phillips moving to the leadoff spot or significantly shifting the lineup to put someone first that can hit.

I'm not so much concerned with the top of the batting order, though, as the bottom. Frazier is coming off a .234 campaign and we have to hope Ludwick doesn't experience a freak injury like last year. Last season the team was not able to generate production through the entire lineup, so that is something that I am going to keep my eye on during the first two months of the season as it should give a good indication of where we are headed.

I would think by now you guys would stop worrying about Billy so much. Between the last half of 2013 and his games during spring training, he's been amazing. He's going to do great things and getting a LOT of extra bases. I still think he will surpass Choo's runs scored.

PeteRoseDay
03-09-2014, 03:44 PM
I would think by now you guys would stop worrying about Billy so much. Between the last half of 2013 and his games during spring training, he's been amazing. He's going to do great things and getting a LOT of extra bases. I still think he will surpass Choo's runs scored.

Any reasonable fan should worry about Hamilton. You are referring to a very small sample size. Major league pitching could eat him up.

Assembly Hall
03-09-2014, 05:41 PM
Any reasonable fan should worry about Hamilton. You are referring to a very small sample size. Major league pitching could eat him up.

Depends on what you mean by "reasonable". Hamilton appears to be something out of the past as far as lead-off hitters go. The stolen base is not as prevalent as it was in the 70's to the early 80's. Hamilton can get ate up by Major League pitching, but if he steals 50+ bases, I could care less what his BA is.

PeteRoseDay
03-09-2014, 05:46 PM
I would still care, but I'm more worried about his OBP. I really hope it's north of .300, but we have to play the anxious waiting game.

mth123
03-09-2014, 05:54 PM
Depends on what you mean by "reasonable". Hamilton appears to be something out of the past as far as lead-off hitters go. The stolen base is not as prevalent as it was in the 70's to the early 80's. Hamilton can get ate up by Major League pitching, but if he steals 50+ bases, I could care less what his BA is.

If he steals 100 bases with a 280 OBP, the steals don't make up for it. Draft him for your fantasy team, but as far as winning real games on a real field goes, he's a huge question. He needs to OBP at least .330 IMO. Last thing a team needs is a huge out maker getting 700 PAs at the top of the order. I don't care how many he steals. It's not like he's going to add a bunch of power to make-up for it.

The brightest aspect of Hamilton's offense is that he's a step closer to 1B against RHP. At least he has that advantage the majority of the time. That one step might be real huge with his speed. I'd guess that his value will be directly tie to how may IF hits he gets. I'd say he needs at least 50 to OBP north of .300.

Assembly Hall
03-09-2014, 05:55 PM
I would still care, but I'm more worried about his OBP. I really hope it's north of .300, but we have to play the anxious waiting game.

If he is a good/great lead-off hitter you wont be worried about his OBP. It will take care of itself.

bullseye
03-09-2014, 08:26 PM
Time to get rid of Marshall. He's good but always injured

We gave up too much for him to cut and run now. Give him another year and pray.

JMO
03-10-2014, 01:49 PM
The Marshall and Broxton deals were awful, especially the extensions. We got rid of Travis Wood and Donnie Joseph. Stay away from giving RP big money. We can always put together a BP without overpaying. Players like Simon, Beato, Jumbo Diaz, Trevor Bell, Hyde, etc can be found for minimal money.

jordan_tm
03-13-2014, 10:25 AM
Totally agree JMO, especially with Broxton. I have to admit though, I never saw injury problems coming for Marshall. The guy doesn't throw extremely hard and his workload has not been heavy since he's been with the Reds.

JMO
03-16-2014, 10:02 PM
Yeah the Marshall injury is frustrating, but I am more upset at the Broxton extension, way too much money. Reds have great bullpen depth that is cheap and controllable.

RedlegJake
03-16-2014, 10:15 PM
I got slammed when I panned the Broxton deal when it happened. Then the ludicrous extension based on two decent months at the tail end of 2012. I wasn't a fan of Broxton when he was here in KC and I hated seeing the Reds get him. Marshall, on the other hand, was a good trade - while I would have bet you Broxton would end up DL'd, I didn't expect it to happen to Marshall. I view Broxton as a huge mistake that could have been avoided. Marshall was a calculated risk (any pitcher is) that went south. That happens to every team.

JMO
03-17-2014, 02:31 PM
Yep, agree with you. Marshall was a good move, bad luck. Hopefully he can be healthy and productive in 2014. Broxton on the other hand was a horrible trade and the extension was even worse. No way do you give 21 M to a guy who's K rate has dropped, velocity has dipped and durability concerns are getting louder. I am excited about some of the other RP like Beato, Bell, Jumbo, Christiani and Hyde.

StRedlegs900
03-18-2014, 02:59 PM
Time to get rid of Marshall. He's good but always injured

I had never seen someone buckle J Votto with a curveball like Marshall did when he was with the Cubs. I was ecstatic when we traded for him, and can only hope that he somehow contributes this year. Shoulder injuries sure never look good, though.

JMO
03-20-2014, 11:39 PM
The Chapman injury makes 5 players that won't be ready for Opening Day:

Chapman, Latos, Marshall, Broxton and Hannahan

Our 40 man sits at 39 including these 5 who will be on the DL.

IMHO, the Reds need both Bernadina and Nelson on this team. Put Chapman on the 60 day DL. That opens 2 spots.

Promote Brett Marshall, put him the rotation. Simon back to the BP to stabilize it.

Hoover, LeCure, Parra, Simon, Ondrusek, Christiani, Beato

or keep Simon in the rotation and put T Bell in the BP.

J Francis, Jumbo, Hyde, and Bell battling for a OD roster spot, same with B Marshall.

William
03-25-2014, 10:01 AM
If the last few seasons are any indication of what we need to expect from Hamilton, he's going to start off slow. If you look back over the past few years, even during his breakout 2012 campaign, he starts off not hitting too well and then somehow he just starts hitting. Is this what a playoff hopeful team needs? Not really, but what can you do besides keep your fingers crossed and hope he just proves everyone wrong?

faffy42
03-25-2014, 10:40 AM
What I THINK it will be:
Hamilton
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Ludwick
Frazier
Cozart
Pena
Cueto

What I WISH it would be:
Hamilton(ill play along too : )
Votto(more at bats & gets on base)
Bruce(probably best hitter now)
Phillips(really produced here last yr)
Heisey(he deserves a shot after ST, and better defense than ludwick)
Frazier(? Not sure what to expect)
Cozart
Mez(want to see his bat get going)
Bailey(a healthy bailey is our #1 imo)

jordan_tm
03-26-2014, 01:37 PM
Cincy Enquirer reporting Ramon Santiago has been told he has made the team. He has hit .225 this Spring.

JMO
03-26-2014, 01:49 PM
I KNEW the Reds would screw this up. Ramon Santiago has NO business making this team. SO I guess the Reds thought it was a good idea to keep a NO HIT BACK UP SS over a guy like Nelson. I guess the prob isn't Baker, its the FO that decides this. We had a chance at a very good bench, not now. I knew they would roll with Santiago and Hannahan. Our bench should be:

Heisey, Pena, Bernadina, Nelson and Soto

NO SANTIAGO. Keep Negron in AAA. Now it will look like this:

Heisey, Pena, Santiago, ? ? Hannahan and Schumaker. WORST BENCH EVER.

mth123
03-26-2014, 09:25 PM
I KNEW the Reds would screw this up. Ramon Santiago has NO business making this team. SO I guess the Reds thought it was a good idea to keep a NO HIT BACK UP SS over a guy like Nelson. I guess the prob isn't Baker, its the FO that decides this. We had a chance at a very good bench, not now. I knew they would roll with Santiago and Hannahan. Our bench should be:

Heisey, Pena, Bernadina, Nelson and Soto

NO SANTIAGO. Keep Negron in AAA. Now it will look like this:

Heisey, Pena, Santiago, ? ? Hannahan and Schumaker. WORST BENCH EVER.

You do realize that keeping both Soto and Nelson over Santiago would simply be choosing a no hit guy who can't back-up SS vs a no hit guy who can, right? They aren't going to find a hitter in the bunch. The problem isn't the choice. The problem was the guys they were choosing from in the first place.

swaisuc
03-27-2014, 03:14 PM
I get why we're talking about this because of the anticipation of next week and we finally have real news, but seriously.... this does not matter. Cozart is going to play 155 games this year if healthy and whether his backup is a .240 type with an average glove or a .230 type with above-average glove is going to be pretty minor.

JMO
03-27-2014, 06:16 PM
Well since 8 Reds will start the year on the DL, I will take one more guess at the bench:

Heisey, Bernadina, Soto(back up C, 1B, 3B) Santiago and Nelson

Price said "we could" go into OD with Soto as the back up C, that would allow all 3 non roster invites to make the Reds out of ST. Bernadina, Santiago and Nelson

Removing players off the 40 man could be difficult, I really don't want to lose any valuable players. Guillon, Beato and Lutz could be options, I would DFA Hannahan, but that won't happen.

JMO
03-29-2014, 05:08 PM
Looks like the Reds released Nelson, upon his request. Idiots. IMHO, I would MUCH rather take Nelson over Soto and Santiago. Will regret this one.