View Full Version : Defensive Shift
UPRedsFan
03-07-2014, 10:09 AM
You probably saw the article recently with Bryan Price indicating the Reds will use the defensive shift more often this year. He quoted some stats about BABIP against the shift at .267 and BABIP without the shift at .283. The Reds under Dusty used the shift the 14th most times in the NL. And the Pirates were 2nd most. Jay Bell will help employ it more this year as he did with Pitt.
For those of you who are more adept at the analytics than I am, have you looked deeply into the stats on the impact of the defensive shift? How big of an impact do you think we can expect it to have on run prevention?
dougdirt
03-07-2014, 10:53 AM
The Cubs can't do anything right.
IslandRed
03-07-2014, 11:31 AM
It's curious to see that about a fourth of the teams had worse DER with the shift than without it. Subtracting out the Blue Jays and White Sox where the negative split is not that large, and looking at the remaining six teams, they include some of the consensus worst defensive infields in general. Thoughts on a possible correlation? Is playing the shift a good plan for good defenses, but a bad plan for bad defenses?
No pants Mcgee
03-07-2014, 11:51 AM
It's curious to see that about a fourth of the teams had worse DER with the shift than without it. Subtracting out the Blue Jays and White Sox where the negative split is not that large, and looking at the remaining six teams, they include some of the consensus worst defensive infields in general. Thoughts on a possible correlation? Is playing the shift a good plan for good defenses, but a bad plan for bad defenses?
Good observation. I would also be curious about the correlation between pitching and the shift. Would a guy like Cliff Lee who would have pretty good numbers either way benefit more from the shift than say an Edison Volquez who struggles with control. From the graph above it seems pretty obvious the top teams with the shift (Oakland. Tampa) are far superior from a pitching standpoint than the bottom teams (Chicago, Colorado)
Kingspoint
03-07-2014, 01:06 PM
I think the Phillies had some issues with their scouting department.
Kingspoint
03-07-2014, 01:07 PM
The difference with the Cardinals really jumps out there.
bucksfan2
03-07-2014, 02:05 PM
I don't really get this data. Looking at the Pirates, they shifted a lot, but it helped out minimally. The Cards shifted much less but it helped out a lot. But what I would find more important is when a shift was a ball in play turned into an out that ordinarily wouldn't be?
Also take away guys that every team shifted on, was a team like the Pirates more successful shifting that a team like the Cards who didn't shift.
UPRedsFan
03-07-2014, 03:00 PM
Seems to say the Cardinals were much more conservative than the Pirates on when they chose to employ the shift. Their guidelines must have been much tighter and used it on only extreme pull hitters and not just guys who tended to pull. So their success rate with the shift was higher, but could they have saved more overall runs if they took the risk more often?
Thanks for the numbers Junkhead!
wheels
03-07-2014, 06:08 PM
I'm impressed that Price brought this up. It's an incredibly good sign.
I really think it's going to pay off. They've already got a top notch defense. This might make them even better.
Is it a safe assumption that it's only singles being prevented?
PepperJack
03-07-2014, 06:25 PM
Is it a safe assumption that it's only singles being prevented?
I would think shifting on a LHH, allowing the 1B to play closer to the bag, could absolutely cut down on 2Bs and even some 3Bs.
I would think shifting on a LHH, allowing the 1B to play closer to the bag, could absolutely cut down on 2Bs and even some 3Bs.
Yeah, I guess I'm having trouble with the binary "shift on, shift off".
And I've long thought it was good idea to go into "doubles prevent" with two outs.
RedsManRick
03-08-2014, 12:52 AM
I think that, over time, more pull happy lefties will "man up" and develop their ability and willingness to push bunt against the shift. Just get it past the pitcher and it's a guaranteed hit with a reasonable chance for a double. I understand that most guys who get shifted on aren't the type who probably work on their bunting a lot, but it wouldn't take more than a few bunts to force teams back in to a more regular alignment.
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