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View Full Version : Buyers/Sellers discussion while looking at remaining schedule



Dustin
07-26-2014, 02:52 PM
Hey guys.

I'm new here and this is my first post. I signed up to respond to a thread in the Old Red Guard about us standing pat for the rest of season but I wasn't able to post there (I suppose I don't have permission to do so yet). The guys there were having a discussion about how realistic it would be to be buyers at this point in the season and the actual odds of us being able to take a wild card spot or win the division. The consensus seemed to be that we need to play somewhere above .600 baseball the rest of the season in order to realistically have a shot. There was a lot of back and forth on this but I thought it was lacking in that we hadn't also looked at the schedule to see how hard it would be for any team to play .600 baseball based on who the Reds have to play. Here's a look at that (I did it really quick so feel free to correct any errors I made):

The average win % of the teams remaining on the Reds schedule is 50.1% or .501. An average team then should finish out the year at 49.9% then.

The Reds are actually at .529 against the teams remaining on the schedule that they have played. 18-13 at home against them and 18-19 away. They have 11 home series left (33 games) and 9 away series left (28 games).

Here's a breakdown of their remaining schedule:

Team played/current win%/record against/home record/away record (they are sort of in order with the schedule except for teams we play multiple times & if they do play multiple times I put something like "@H@" which means they play away, then home, then away again)


Home against Washington .560 2-2 Home: 0-1 Away: 2-1
Arizona (H) .480 3-1 Home: None Away: 3-1
Miami (Away 4 times/Home for 3) .480 Have not played
@H Cleveland .495 Have not played
Boston (H) .456 0-2 Home: None Away: 0-2
@Colorado .412 2-1 Home: 2-1 Away: None
@H@ St. Louis .529 3-6 Home: 2-4 Away: 1-2
Atlanta (H) .534 0-3 Home: None Away: 0-3
H@ Chicago Cubs .416 9-4 Home: 5-2 Away: 4-2
@H Pittsburgh .529 9-5 Home: 4-3 Away: 5-2
@Baltimore .559 Have Not Played
Mets (H) .476 1-2 Home: None Away: 1-2
@H Brewers .558 7-6 Home: 5-2 Away: 2-4


And after all of that, all I can say is that I'm still not sure we should be buyers or sellers. If I had to lean one way or the other, I'd probably go with sellers just based on the fact that we play Washington, St Louis 3 times and 2 of those are away series, Atlanta in a 4 game set (albeit at home), Pittsburgh twice (although we've fared pretty well against them), at Baltimore and 2 more series with the Brewers.

If I were Jocketty, I'd be wishing he could at least see how we do during the stretch immediately after Washington because that stretch is Arizona, Miami twice, Boston and Colorado. They should do some major damage there or, to be honest, the season is probably over. If you can't mow through those guys, how are you going to do against away against St. Louis followed by a 4 game series with Atlanta.

If you are a buyer...who out there could you get that would up your current record of .529 against those opponents to .600+. I'm not sure there's any ONE player out there but you could make the argument that adding a healthy Votto, Phillips and let's say Zobrist, could do just that. The problem though is that once they get back, the back end of the schedule offers no gimmes outside of the Cubs and a series with the Mets, tucked in between Pitt, Balt, Brewers, St. Louis and Cleveland.