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ram
09-21-2014, 10:12 PM
I've not kept up with the Reds other than checking the scores since they dropped from contention in early to mid-August. Has the front office begun trying to sell fans the line..."the reason we didn't compete for the division title was our injury situation"?

Even with a healthy Votto, Phillips and Bailey, this team had demonstrated they'd struggle to be a .500 team. Reds management/ownership is not interested in winning the division, only competing for it.

Herzeleid
09-22-2014, 04:50 AM
Yup, you are right on the button with your view. Have you read the thread called "Sometimes you just know" in the ORG? If you haven't, you should.
It's pretty laughable with all the excuses. Many posters there are talking as if the Reds are the only team in baseball who have been battling the injury bugs this year in spite of the fact that there are contending teams in the league with a level of injuries on a par with the Reds. If I were them, I would just man up and admit I was wrong.

Protoss
09-22-2014, 12:54 PM
I completely agree with you guys about this as I also think there are too many "excusers" in the ORG who should really man up themselves. I'll give you one example about this.


We are 66-71 with a laundry list of injuries. We were 7 games over .500 at the break


If you predicted a total collapse post All-Star Break, you deserve credit for being right.

I will not mention a posters’ name, but I just can't make out the reason why this guy keep mentioning the record at the All-Star break. Does the baseball season end at the All-Star break? I think I've already seen him say like this 4~5 times.

Herzeleid
09-22-2014, 02:07 PM
I completely agree with you guys about this as I also think there are too many "excusers" in the ORG who should really man up themselves. I'll give you one example about this.





I will not mention a posters’ name, but I just can't make out the reason why this guy keep mentioning the record at the All-Star break. Does the baseball season end at the All-Star break? I think I've already seen him say like this 4~5 times.
Whatever his intention, the fact is that the goddess of fortune had been smiling on the Reds before the break and that she stopped smiling (they couldn't avoid the goddess of regression) after the break.

* Before the All-Star Break *

Batting (20th in Runs): 25th in wRC+, 25th in Off

Pitching
All (6th in Runs): 9th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 19th in WAR
Starters (5th in Runs): 4th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 20th in WAR
Bullpen (7th in Runs): 21st in ERA, 18th in FIP, 14th in WAR

Herzeleid
09-22-2014, 02:39 PM
Before the break, I remember, there was also five-game series against the Cubs who had traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A's.

RedTeamGo!
09-22-2014, 02:51 PM
Pretty obvious injuries played a pretty major role in why this team has been bad this year. It is not an excuse when it is a fact.

ram
09-22-2014, 09:21 PM
Pretty obvious injuries played a pretty major role in why this team has been bad this year. It is not an excuse when it is a fact.

Injuries did impact the team. Without them, we might have been a .500 team. The reality of it is this: Most could see before the season began we were less equipped to compete for the division title than we were last year. Nothing, zip, was done to improve this team during the off season. Not to mention, we get rid of a manager (good move) only to hire another guy with an even more glaring lack of ability to light a fire under his players. Write it down...if this team makes no changes during the off season, this time next year we'll be lucky to be at .500. Like I said, the management is not interested in winning championships, just being competitive enough to sell tickets.

Herzeleid
09-22-2014, 11:33 PM
Pretty obvious injuries played a pretty major role in why this team has been bad this year. It is not an excuse when it is a fact.
I see them as a .500 team without injuries. Do you feel differently about this? Do you think they are contenders without injuries?

Protoss
09-23-2014, 02:33 AM
I will cite another one.


NL Central 2014 Pythag:

Cards - 79-77
Pirates - 83-72
Brewers - 78-78
Reds - 75-81
Cubs - 68-88

Parity. It won't be that hard for the Reds to rebound and contend next year.

Haven't some posters already pointed out several times that "second-order" and "third-order" wins are more reliable ways, than Pythag, of assessing a team's talents and skills and predicting the future actual team winning percentage?

NL Central 2014 Second-order wins

Pirates: 86.1-68.9
Cards: 82.4-73.6
Brewers: 77.8-78.2
Cubs: 74.0-82.0
Reds: 70.7-85.3

NL Central 2014 Third-order wins

Pirates: 86.4-68.6
Cards: 81.8-74.2
Brewers: 77.4-78.6
Cubs: 74.6-81.4
Reds: 71.6-84.4

Herzeleid
09-23-2014, 04:56 AM
*Pythag is based on the team's actual runs scored and runs allowed.
*2nd and 3rd order wins are based on the team's underlying stats.

757690
09-23-2014, 06:13 AM
I will cite another one.



Haven't some posters already pointed out several times that "second-order" and "third-order" wins are more reliable ways, than Pythag, of assessing a team's talents and skills and predicting the future actual team winning percentage?

NL Central 2014 Second-order wins

Pirates: 86.1-68.9
Cards: 82.4-73.6
Brewers: 77.8-78.2
Cubs: 74.0-82.0
Reds: 70.7-85.3

NL Central 2014 Third-order wins

Pirates: 86.4-68.6
Cards: 81.8-74.2
Brewers: 77.4-78.6
Cubs: 74.6-81.4
Reds: 71.6-84.4


You completely missed the point of the post. It wasn't to show that Reds have been good this year, it was to show that the other teams haven't been that good either. There is a lot of parity in the division. No team has a lot of talent. Even if you buy into third order wins 100%, they show that the Pirates are the best team with 86 wins right now, and the Cards second best at 81. Like I said, it won't be that hard for the Reds to rebound and contend next year.

RedTeamGo!
09-23-2014, 07:28 AM
I see them as a .500 team without injuries. Do you feel differently about this? Do you think they are contenders without injuries?

I said before the season started this was a around a .500 team, but that doesn't change the fact that injuries played a major role in the outcome of the season.

Herzeleid
09-23-2014, 08:22 AM
I said before the season started this was a around a .500 team, but that doesn't change the fact that injuries played a major role in the outcome of the season.
Yup, that's the point. That they were a .500 team (they were actually considered as roughly a .500 club by many pundits and fans during the offseason), but did practically nothing from an offensive standpoint during this past offseason.

Herzeleid
09-23-2014, 08:57 AM
You completely missed the point of the post. It wasn't to show that Reds have been good this year, it was to show that the other teams haven't been that good either. There is a lot of parity in the division. No team has a lot of talent. Even if you buy into third order wins 100%, they show that the Pirates are the best team with 86 wins right now, and the Cards second best at 81. Like I said, it won't be that hard for the Reds to rebound and contend next year.
My eyes tell me there is quite a distinct difference between the two.

757690
09-23-2014, 12:04 PM
Yup, that's the point. That they were a .500 team (they were actually considered as roughly a .500 club by many pundits and fans during the offseason), but did practically nothing from an offensive standpoint during this past offseason.

Right now, with the parity that has taken over MLB, pretty much every team is around a .500 team. A 500 team is a contending team these days.

Herzeleid
09-23-2014, 01:09 PM
Right now, with the parity that has taken over MLB, pretty much every team is around a .500 team. A 500 team is a contending team these days.
I'm sure you recognize this is a ridiculous argument.

757690
09-23-2014, 04:06 PM
I'm sure you recognize this is a ridiculous argument.

According the third order wins, only five teams project to win more than 90 games this season. Zero are in the NL Central.

Only two teams, the Rangers and D-backs, project to win less than 72 games.

Parity. Get used to it.

RedFanT
09-23-2014, 05:00 PM
Even with a healthy Votto, Phillips and Bailey, this team had demonstrated they'd struggle to be a .500 team. Reds management/ownership is not interested in winning the division, only competing for it.

When Votto, Phillips, and Bailey were healthy, the Reds were only a game and a half out of first, so I do not accept the notion that this team would have struggled to finish .500 (if all three had stayed healthy). Injuries happen, and there are no excuses, but it certainly explains why the wheels fell off, because as soon as they went down the Reds almost immediately started losing games and fell out of contention. As horrible as that is, I was not so bothered by it. Injuries are a part of the game, as much as I hate seeing it happen. What bothered me was that the team had no one to replace those players with of even close/near equal value when they did go down. The lack of offense off the bench and dearth of bats in AAA really exposed this team (never mind the bullpen problems, which would have persisted even if everyone was healthy). The only productive offensive player who did not go on or stay on the DL list this season has been Todd Frazier. That is it. This explains why the Reds went from being 3rd in the NL in runs scored last season to 13th this season.

Big Red Smokey
09-25-2014, 11:09 PM
Pretty obvious injuries played a pretty major role in why this team has been bad this year. It is not an excuse when it is a fact.

This team had 87.5% of their projected opening day starting lineup for the last 2 months of the year...

Banshee
09-30-2014, 01:56 AM
This team lost it's former MVP for most of the season, in theoretically one of his prime yrs. Bruuce was a shadow of his former silver slugger self, and much poorer on defense. BP lost for over a month. On and on, key guys that had either down yrs. or were injured. Unless one has a crystal ball, and a darned good one, no one can say what this club could've/would've/should've been. Simon, Leake, Broxy, Meso, Frazier were better than most could've hoped, and the pen went from a strength to a disaster area. Whether Price being elevated instead of being the pitching coach is a real question for me. Not to mention the groundbreaking/historically bad baserunning. Lots went wrong w/ this team, but injuries can't be discounted for being a major reason for such mediocrity. Time will tell. The reds are in such a corner now that I'm not sure what they can do to extricate themselves from, w/ all the guarenteed monies/contracts and lack of offense WJ's going to earn that money of his new contract or be burned(figuratively) in effigy by our fans.

RedTeamGo!
09-30-2014, 08:00 AM
This team had 87.5% of their projected opening day starting lineup for the last 2 months of the year...

That may be the most misleading "stat" I have ever seen.

Their best player was out and 3/5 of their opening day rotation was out as well.

I am on the record before the season started saying healthy this team was around .500. With that said, to ignore how much injuries played in the demise of the 2014 squad is to be deliberately obtuse.

BernieCarbo
09-30-2014, 08:35 AM
Injuries obviously played a role, although Simon, Frazier, and Mesoraco certainly performed above and beyond what was expected. But even being 100% healthy, no way could they have scored as many runs as they did in 2013 when they had Choo's OBP in the lineup. I just don't know what the front office was thinking when they did nothing to fill that vacuum last winter. If Cueto continues to want a personal catcher (I guess it's his prerogative, but it's obvious he doesn't put a huge value of Mesoraco's bat), then probably the best option is to have Devin learn some left field and find a couple of decent OBP guys to plat0on out there. They definitely don't need yet another hacker chasing pitches all over the place.