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View Full Version : The Reds Window of Opportunity for Competing



PadsFS
11-12-2014, 01:18 PM
Maybe it's just me, but I can't understand this "window is closing" mantra. Yes, they are potentially losing 4 starters to FA after 2015, but with Iglesias, Stevenson, Lorenzen, Cingrani, Travieso, Howard, and Bailey, I don't see a shortage of pitching looming on the horizon, especially if they go get another free agent pitcher in 2016.

If there was ever a window closing on the competing timeframe, I think it would be after 2017, when Mesoraco, Bruce, Frazier, Phillips, and Cozart all become free agents, but really, that is so far off, it's not relevant in the slightest.

Is this just Redzone over-reaction on the 2015 timeline or is it really a justifiable concern?

mdccclxix
11-12-2014, 03:57 PM
I don't think it's a Redszone thing, most observers can see what's coming. Walt also may have indicated something near the end of the year that there is a small window. Not sure if he meant for the wild card or the Reds in general. Nevertheless, I agree that it's not all that bleak. Things will be different in 12 months. A whole year forward for the minor league system, which beginning this year, will start a 3-4 year run of replenishing the mlb team. In the next 12 months I also expect extensions for Mez or Frazier or both. Perhaps 1 veteran pitcher is resigned, or another brought in next year in FA. With the right LF piece arriving this year between a FA, trade or Winker/Waldrop, this offense is in fine shape when healthy. Bailey, Iglesias, Stephenson, Cingrani, FA vet (Cueto, Latos, Leake, or other FA), Moscot/Lorenzen/Garrett/Lively/Chapman are going to fill out a talented and unproven pitching staff in 2016. I'm surprised no one has complimented the Reds for coming through just in time for this overhaul of the pitching staff.

Billy Budd
11-12-2014, 07:20 PM
Maybe it's just me, but I can't understand this "window is closing" mantra. Yes, they are potentially losing 4 starters to FA after 2015, but with Iglesias, Stevenson, Lorenzen, Cingrani, Travieso, Howard, and Bailey, I don't see a shortage of pitching looming on the horizon, especially if they go get another free agent pitcher in 2016.

If there was ever a window closing on the competing timeframe, I think it would be after 2017, when Mesoraco, Bruce, Frazier, Phillips, and Cozart all become free agents, but really, that is so far off, it's not relevant in the slightest.

Is this just Redzone over-reaction on the 2015 timeline or is it really a justifiable concern?

Until Inglesias, Stevenson, Lorenzen, Travieso, Howard show me ANYTHING above minor league potential--then I think indeed the Reds window is quickly CLOSING. Right now, the Reds 2016 starting staff (Assuming Cueto, Latos, Leake) walk is.... ummm... Bailey, Cingrani... Minor League pitcher A, Minor League Pitcher B, Minor League Pitcher C (Simon is a Free agent in 2016)

So, you have a borderline #2/3 for an ace, a #4/5 for your number 2, , and crossing fingers that three of those minor league pitcher/phenoms will be able to give you 160-180 innings of effective pitching.
But, yes, we could also OVERPAY for a free agent.... and looking at who would be available in that class... Samardjia? Price? LOLOL Who would be better than Leake or Latos?

The Reds are HURTING if they do not win it all in 2015.

Hello early 2000 Reds, your pitching staff is back.

Big Red Smokey
11-12-2014, 11:16 PM
You can't expect 100% of your prospects to pan out. Not gonna happen.

Old school 1983
11-13-2014, 12:31 AM
No. But you can't assume they all will bust too. The Reds should lock up another member of the current staff IMO, but assuming very prospect the Reds have won't pan out isn't the best route either. I'd honestly be willing to argue that Lorenzen and Stephenson would be pretty darn close to being a 1 or 2 on some early 2000s Reds staffs with their current talent level.

PadsFS
11-13-2014, 11:39 AM
You can't expect 100% of your prospects to pan out. Not gonna happen.

You'll effectively need two to work out of five.

Iglesias, Stephenson, and Lorenzen are the real deal. I think they are in much better shape than we are giving them credit for.

Plus both Iglesias and Stephenson will be in the MLB at some point this year so we will have a much better basis for what needs to happen in 2016 by the end of 2015.

CarolinaRedsfan
11-21-2014, 04:04 AM
Seriously, all of this "window is closing" crap is just that, crap. In an era where teams are getting massive money from tv deals and multiple other revenue streams it is just ridiculous that the Reds cannot spend to keep players. It is the same old tired excuse year in and year out. If you cannot afford to compete then close up shop. If they were worried about the budget in the first place they should not have extended Phillips and Bailey. Maybe baseball needs an "amnesty" clause like the NBA where you can jettison a bad contract. If by some miracle they could rid themselves of the Phillips deal and trade either Bailey or Bruce, two years from now the front office will be screaming hard times again. It is evident this team is just happy to compete on occasion. To me there is no actual desire to be a long term contender. If there was they would not have trotted the Dynamic Duo of Ludwick and Heisey out in LF last year when they could have taken a flyer on Nelson Cruz or Mike Morse for next to nothing. I am pretty sure they will make some move this offseason just to show they are trying but it is fools gold with this team. The fact that we even have to consider moving Cueto is sickening.

PadsFS
11-21-2014, 12:17 PM
Amnesty just means that deal doesn't fall under the cap for that team. I agree with everything else you said.

Billy Budd
12-01-2014, 06:09 PM
Even if two of the five work out... what do you realistically expect from the rookies in 2016? Seriously?
Cueto rookie stats-- 9-14 4.81 ERA 174 innings
Bailey rookie stats-- 4-2 5.76 45 innings or sophomore stats 0-6 7.93 36.1
Latos rookie stats-- 4-5 4.62 50 innings/ sophomore stats 14-10 2.92 184
Leake rookie stats-- 8-4 4.23 138.1 innings

Please forgive me if I think that the 2016 Reds can not contend with a starting staff comprosed of Bailey, Cingrani, and three rookies.

Old school 1983
12-01-2014, 08:20 PM
Even if two of the five work out... what do you realistically expect from the rookies in 2016? Seriously?
Cueto rookie stats-- 9-14 4.81 ERA 174 innings
Bailey rookie stats-- 4-2 5.76 45 innings or sophomore stats 0-6 7.93 36.1
Latos rookie stats-- 4-5 4.62 50 innings/ sophomore stats 14-10 2.92 184
Leake rookie stats-- 8-4 4.23 138.1 innings

Please forgive me if I think that the 2016 Reds can not contend with a starting staff comprosed of Bailey, Cingrani, and three rookies.

What were Cingranis rookie stats? Damn good. I think one of those guys will get extended too. Reds defense is better now than then too. May help a bit.

I think it's important to note too a guy like Iglesias,who could find his way into the rotation, is likely getting his feet wet in the bigs as a reliever first. It's also my opinion, that if Leake is moved, one of the prospects ought to get his feet wet at the bottom of the rotation.