PDA

View Full Version : Should we just Fire Sale?



Ron Delancey
12-12-2014, 10:29 AM
I mean..I don't think with our current roster we will compete this year.

Should we just trade Cueto, Chapman, BP and clear up some cap room. Bring in young guys for this year? I'd say trade Votto, but I don't think there is a team crazy enough to take on that contract based on his numbers from the last couple of seasons...I guess maybe it's time to see if Homer can be the ace we are paying him to be. I think we can get decent return from Cueto and Chapman..That actually is a good question...What could a Cueto/Chapman package bring back in return?

What do you guys think?

RedlegJake
12-12-2014, 11:12 AM
I think you severely under estimate the talent still on this team. Trade Cueto and Chapman and they WILL be exactly where you envision, though.

redsmetz
12-12-2014, 02:27 PM
There is no salary cap in MLB that we need to get "cap room" from. The Central Division was going to be a tough division in the first place, but I don't think we'll be as noncompetitive as you and some are suggesting. Someone noted that it doesn't make much sense in today's structure to do so-called "fire sales" - a retooling and repositioning of assets will need to be done from time to time. Certainly if we don't get some of our injured players back from last year's injuries, but I don't think it's a given that we won't have most, if not all, of them providing effective years next season.

bondsfan
12-12-2014, 02:37 PM
I think we should fire sale with a focus on trying to rebuild a stellar rotation (which has been our formula for success recently). I propose:
1. Cueto to M's for Taijuan Walker and change
2. Bruce to O's for Bundy and change
3. Chapman to Jays for Stroman or Hutchinson or Norris (No Sanchez please)

With savings:
1. Extend Mesoraco to a Seager like extension
2. May want to do a Latos like cost certainty extension with Frazier
3. Next year focus on a couple of mid level bats.
4. With high draft pick in next year or 2 look for a successor to Cozart/Phillips

2016 (with one more year in minors for Winker)
Hamilton
Frazier
Votto
Mesoraco
OF bat (J. Upton?)
Winker
Phillips
Cozart or Suarez
P

Rotation
1. Bailey
2. Leake (if signed)
3. Bundy
4. Walker
5. Stroman

BP includes other starter prospects turned relievers, +Cingrani, + Free Agent.

Plan cuts costs, buys time, and gives payroll flexibility.

Ron Delancey
12-12-2014, 03:08 PM
There is no salary cap in MLB that we need to get "cap room" from. The Central Division was going to be a tough division in the first place, but I don't think we'll be as noncompetitive as you and some are suggesting. Someone noted that it doesn't make much sense in today's structure to do so-called "fire sales" - a retooling and repositioning of assets will need to be done from time to time. Certainly if we don't get some of our injured players back from last year's injuries, but I don't think it's a given that we won't have most, if not all, of them providing effective years next season.

The only thing that made us competitive last year was our pitching. Now we've lost two of our 5 starters and we haven't improved the team at all for next year. Our offense is horrid.. I think it'll be 3-4 years before the reds legitimately compete again, so why not unload the hefty contracts now and build for then?

redsmetz
12-12-2014, 04:55 PM
This Fangraphs article suggests that the Reds may have been the winners of the Winter Meetings. I don't know that I'd go that far, but it's a good analysis of what the trades did and are attempting to do. We'll see if it proves correct.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/how-the-reds-quietly-won-at-the-winter-meetings-121214

RedEye
12-12-2014, 10:17 PM
I don't think we should fire Sale. He's doing a great job!

DanielPlainview
12-13-2014, 11:03 AM
That's really up to Kenny Williams. If he does I'd sign him in a heartbeat.

The Mechanic#10
12-13-2014, 03:39 PM
This Fangraphs article suggests that the Reds may have been the winners of the Winter Meetings. I don't know that I'd go that far, but it's a good analysis of what the trades did and are attempting to do. We'll see if it proves correct.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/how-the-reds-quietly-won-at-the-winter-meetings-121214

i agree i think latos is on a downhill slide plus the marlins is not even close as good a defense teams as the reds and that will hurt latos also next year!

HokieRed
12-13-2014, 11:40 PM
I hated to see Latos go. He's got TOR stuff and can produce as a TOR if healthy. On the other hand, I'm glad to see us begin to look like we're taking a different approach to the roster--i.e. moving guys before losing them to FA to get younger and cheaper. Beginning with the Heisey trade, Jocketty added five players who will likely be on the 2016 roster as rookies or 2nd year players. Add to this Iglesias, Stephenson, Lorenzen, Winker--all of whom are virtual locks by 2016. He's creating paylfex not only in the near term but in the longer term as well. What I like about these moves is that they seem like steps toward a different way of conceiving the roster.

dMaus14
12-15-2014, 02:04 PM
I think we should fire sale and not because I think we won't be competitive this year but because its who we are as an organization. We do not have the funds to pay Cueto, Votto and Bailey $60+M over a 6 year span and still be competitive. Especially when you include Frazier, Mesoraco and still paying Phillips (Phillips is not being traded unless we include a guy like Stephenson in the deal). Don't look for a huge haul either when trading our assets in my opinion. Trade for youthful guys that can play in the next year or so.

Trade Johnny Cueto and Manny Parra to Boston for Anthony Ranaudo, Xander Bogaerts, Daniel Nava and another pitching prospect.

Trade Jay Bruce to San Diego for Hunter Renfroe and Tayron Guerrero.

Trade Aroldis Chapman to Toronto for Daniel Norris, Dawell Lugo and a pitching prospect (Matt Smorel?)

Sign Alex Rios to a 2-3 year deal. You will have Nava, Rios and Hamilton in the OF (good OF).
Sign Kris Medlen and Brandon Morrow to 1 year deals to allow them to re-establish themselves as well as give our arms coming up another year to groom.

Hold on to the Leake and if at the trade deadline someone wants him then get rid of him. If not give him a QO and let him go. I am all about signing our home grown talent to extensions but do it when they are younger, over bid for the pre-arb years so you can buy out a FA year or two.

We have a plethora of prospect arms - trade some of them for bats (Corcinco, Guillon, Kivel, Garrett). You can trade away the farm when you have the type of big leaguers that are expensive and can replenish in a trade.

CarolinaRedsfan
12-16-2014, 09:41 PM
At the rate this team is moving they may as well. It is beyond unreal that this team could not get a bat for LF with one of the trades last week. Their stance was they needed to move money to take on money. I call BS. They were straight salary dumps.

RedlegJake
12-16-2014, 09:54 PM
At the rate this team is moving they may as well. It is beyond unreal that this team could not get a bat for LF with one of the trades last week. Their stance was they needed to move money to take on money. I call BS. They were straight salary dumps.

There was no trade deadline that occurred last week. How about waiting til spring arrives before deciding they're done dealing/signing. Just to check and see I went to BR transactions for the last 2 years. Between December 17th and March 30th 2011-2012 & 2012-2013 there were 37 big league trades done in that time, and I quit counting free agent signings at 75. Off season isn't over yet.

BluegrassRedleg
12-17-2014, 03:49 AM
No. "Fire sale" implies you give up on your goods for nothing, just to get rid of it. The Reds don't need that. But they do need to piss or get off the pot. What they've done to date gives them very little chance to win the division or compete in the playoffs if they sneak in. I'd much rather get on with a genuine rebuilding effort than to be where we are right now.

CarolinaRedsfan
12-17-2014, 03:56 AM
There was no trade deadline that occurred last week. How about waiting til spring arrives before deciding they're done dealing/signing. Just to check and see I went to BR transactions for the last 2 years. Between December 17th and March 30th 2011-2012 & 2012-2013 there were 37 big league trades done in that time, and I quit counting free agent signings at 75. Off season isn't over yet.


I never said there was a trade deadline last week. They did however make two trades both of which I thought were ok. At the time I thought they had a plan in the works to sign a free agent outfielder. Well a week later and no one has been signed (yeah I am impatient:D). In fact most of the the supposed targets have signed with other clubs. Granted, they could be the third "mystery" team in the Pads/Rays deal but I doubt it. They could also be planning on going after Upton, which I would think would be great, but again I have my doubts. So if both of those scenarios are no-gos then whom do we sign? Aoki would be a fit but I doubt he signs for less than three years. The Cubs are supposedly in on Rasmus (per ESPN insider of which I am a subscriber). The Reds supposedly have no interest in Gomes. I would take a flyer on Corey Hart to see if he can bounce back but only on a minor league deal. I guess we could always trade Cueto and/or Chapman to begin another five year rebuild so five years after that the front office can cry hard times again which is this team's perpetual excuse.

CarolinaRedsfan
12-17-2014, 04:00 AM
No. "Fire sale" implies you give up on your goods for nothing, just to get rid of it. The Reds don't need that. But they do need to piss or get off the pot. What they've done to date gives them very little chance to win the division or compete in the playoffs if they sneak in. I'd much rather get on with a genuine rebuilding effort than to be where we are right now.

They would rather stay on the pot so that way they can't be accused of anything one way or the other.

RedlegJake
12-17-2014, 09:51 AM
Carolina, I will be as frustrated (not strong enough) as you if they go into ST with this same group. I'm willing to give them time to make some kind of deal happen, whether trade or free agent. Really, a LFer could come out of anywhere in a trade although I agree Aoki is about the only FA left I think fits. Rasmus and Hart just don't do it for me. Either one a minor league deal but that's about it - and as a 4th OFer, not everyday LF. I'd be shocked of they made a deal for Upton. I am worried - just not ready to call it done and over yet. But, oh yes, I DO understand the frustration with left field - it's been a problem going on three years with no answer except "wait for Winker"

CarolinaRedsfan
12-18-2014, 02:44 AM
Carolina, I will be as frustrated (not strong enough) as you if they go into ST with this same group. I'm willing to give them time to make some kind of deal happen, whether trade or free agent. Really, a LFer could come out of anywhere in a trade although I agree Aoki is about the only FA left I think fits. Rasmus and Hart just don't do it for me. Either one a minor league deal but that's about it - and as a 4th OFer, not everyday LF. I'd be shocked of they made a deal for Upton. I am worried - just not ready to call it done and over yet. But, oh yes, I DO understand the frustration with left field - it's been a problem going on three years with no answer except "wait for Winker"


RedLeg, I was hoping we were the third team in the Pads/Rays deal but it was not to be. Supposedly, Seth Smith may be available due to the OF crunch in San Diego. He could now be an option. Another guy I forgot about as well is Marlon Byrd. It should not take much to get him with the Phillies rebuilding. Aoki I guess would be a fit but I am just not a big fan of what he would bring to the table and what that price could be.:cry:

Ron Delancey
12-18-2014, 10:19 AM
Dang..Instead of signing Votto and BP to big contracts, we should have thrown all of our money into keeping Choo

sandcastle
12-18-2014, 01:38 PM
Not the time for a fire sale plus there could be some advantages by not signing a veteran LF. In past seasons, filling this position was a necessity for a middle of the lineup righty to project Votto & Bruce.

Now, the Reds need to make it through the 1st half with Votto & Bruce producing along with Frazier and Mesoraco. Likewise, Cueto, Bailey, and Leake need to consistently produce quality starts. If this happens and LF is still an issue, the Reds can use some their minor league chips and try to make a run for the title. If the core players are not performing, then the Reds become a seller and are not saddled with a veteran LF on a multi-year deal.

If LF is left open for a platoon with a rookie left handed hitter, it provides regular abs for Schumaker/Negron, whom should also be regularly substituting for Phillips and Hamilton to keep them healthy. Ideally, this helps the Reds develop a strong bench that may improve late game heroics by using rested starters contribute as pinch hitters. In other words, on days that a star is rested, get them abs in a favorable match-up against a 7th / 8th inning reliever.

RedlegJake
12-18-2014, 04:58 PM
Not the time for a fire sale plus there could be some advantages by not signing a veteran LF. In past seasons, filling this position was a necessity for a middle of the lineup righty to project Votto & Bruce.

Now, the Reds need to make it through the 1st half with Votto & Bruce producing along with Frazier and Mesoraco. Likewise, Cueto, Bailey, and Leake need to consistently produce quality starts. If this happens and LF is still an issue, the Reds can use some their minor league chips and try to make a run for the title. If the core players are not performing, then the Reds become a seller and are not saddled with a veteran LF on a multi-year deal.

If LF is left open for a platoon with a rookie left handed hitter, it provides regular abs for Schumaker/Negron, whom should also be regularly substituting for Phillips and Hamilton to keep them healthy. Ideally, this helps the Reds develop a strong bench that may improve late game heroics by using rested starters contribute as pinch hitters. In other words, on days that a star is rested, get them abs in a favorable match-up against a 7th / 8th inning reliever.

Walt, I knew eventually you'd post in RZ.

RedlegJake
12-18-2014, 05:00 PM
Sorry, Sandcastle, I shouldn't be such a smart aleck to a new member. Your viewpoint is going to be unpopular, though, but I can see some sense to it. I think they need a regular LFer to be in contention by the deadline, though. Maybe not a Justin Upton type, but someone better than what is the roster right now.

Ron Delancey
12-19-2014, 09:56 AM
We've needed a left fielder ever since we traded Dunn (honestly, even before that) and we haven't done it. Why do we think this year will be any different? We'll platoon it again and be in the same situation next off season.

RedlegJake
12-19-2014, 10:12 AM
We've needed a left fielder ever since we traded Dunn (honestly, even before that) and we haven't done it. Why do we think this year will be any different? We'll platoon it again and be in the same situation next off season.

I agree. And in the last three years how many LFers have been traded around baseball? 10? 20? It is frustrating. When Ludwick went down early in 2013 they should have been scouring for a LFer. They just let it ride, over and over again.

napalextus
12-19-2014, 12:31 PM
I'd say the likely hood Seth Smith became available just exponentially increased with the Pads recent acquisition of Justin Upton.

CarolinaRedsfan
12-19-2014, 10:49 PM
Hart is now off the board. Ichiro supposedly has mutual interest with the O's. Aoki has also been in contact with the O's. The pickings have gotten slim. The only obvious trade targets are Byrd and Seth Smith but the Padres are reportedly planning on keeping Smith.

vottofan4life
12-20-2014, 05:49 AM
Does a package for Sonny Gray and Josh Reddick make sense while the A's are open for business?

BEETTLEBUG
12-20-2014, 10:29 AM
Sure why not talk to him while he is dealing.

Redsfansince72
12-23-2014, 01:34 AM
meanwhile Walt sits back waiting for ALL the other teams to get their house in order and wait for the desperate free agents that cant find a spot. Yippy that is a plan to win!!.NOT!!!

CarolinaRedsfan
12-23-2014, 04:59 AM
I saw an interview yesterday where Walt said "they were still trying to get a fill on the market"!!:rolleyes: Must have been talking about the stock market because the OF market has about dried up. I guess once Rasmus, Aoki, Byrd, Smith and Ichiro land with other teams he will have a better feel then.:bang:

dMaus14
12-24-2014, 01:47 AM
I saw an interview yesterday where Walt said "they were still trying to get a fill on the market"!!:rolleyes: Must have been talking about the stock market because the OF market has about dried up. I guess once Rasmus, Aoki, Byrd, Smith and Ichiro land with other teams he will have a better feel then.:bang:

I really don't care what course of action we take but we need to make a decision before other teams are set going into spring training. Because if we get rid of Cueto it will only make sense to get rid of Bruce, Chapman, Leake and after cutting $40M -- I would trade BP and cover $12M over the course of the contract.