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View Full Version : Cubs on the verge of signing James Shields.



JoshBresser
02-08-2015, 01:28 AM
Good Lord.

This would potentially give them not just the best rotation in the division, but one of the best in the game.

Jon Lester
James Shields
Jake Arrieta
Jason Hammel
Kyle Hendricks

The projections on those guys:

Jon Lester: 208 IP, 3.11 ERA, 4.6 WAR.
James Shields: 201 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.0 WAR.
Jake Arrieta: 154 IP, 3.67 ERA, 2.3 WAR.
Jason Hammel: 141 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.7 WAR.
Kyle Hendricks: 165 IP, 3.54 ERA, 2.7 WAR

Yikes. And I think those projections are actually a bit pessimistic on Arrieta, Shields, and Hammel.

As a comparison, here are the Reds' projected starters.

Johnny Cueto: 192 IP, 3.31 ERA, 2.8 WAR.
Homer Bailey: 173 IP, 3.70 ERA, 2.0 WAR.
Mike Leake: 173 IP, 3.94 ERA, 1.4 WAR.
Tony Cingrani: 163 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.4 WAR.
Anthony DeSclafani: 144 IP, 4.48 ERA, 0.2 WAR.

I think these projections are pessimistic on Cueto and Bailey, and a bit optimistic on Cingrani.


The Cubs might be winning the NL Central this year...

Tom Servo
02-08-2015, 04:08 AM
Unless I missed something I'm hearing a lot more about him possibly signing with San Diego than I am Chicago.

Assembly Hall
02-08-2015, 12:08 PM
Unless I missed something I'm hearing a lot more about him possibly signing with San Diego than I am Chicago.

I am seeing the same thing Tom.

dougdirt
02-08-2015, 01:02 PM
Until the Cubs don't Cub, the Cubs are going to Cub.

Donder
02-08-2015, 02:05 PM
You lost me at the 4.6 projected WAR for Lester compared to 2.8 for Cueto.

Maybe I'm a homer but I'll take our top three over theirs even if they sign Shields.

JoshBresser
02-08-2015, 03:10 PM
I am seeing the same thing Tom.

Seeing that today. Last night, it was all about Shields being on the phone with Maddon and all that. Cubs are still in the mix though, but it looks like SD is going to get him

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You lost me at the 4.6 projected WAR for Lester compared to 2.8 for Cueto.

Maybe I'm a homer but I'll take our top three over theirs even if they sign Shields.

Lol wut.

Donder
02-08-2015, 03:28 PM
Lol wut.

Lol yup.

Give me Cueto over Lester and Leake over Arrieta, who was thoroughly average until
Last year. I'll grant Shields over Bailey although that looks moot anyway.

JoshBresser
02-08-2015, 03:39 PM
Lol yup.

Give me Cueto over Lester and Leake over Arrieta, who was thoroughly average until
Last year. I'll grant Shields over Bailey although that looks moot anyway.

Arrieta is light years better than Leake.

2.26 FIP last year compared to Leake's 3.88.

Donder
02-08-2015, 03:51 PM
Arrieta is light years better than Leake.

2.26 FIP last year compared to Leake's 3.88.

It's convenient to compare because they've both been in the league 5 years.

Career comparison

Arrieta
WAR- 6.3 (5.3 of that came last year)
ERA- 4.48
FIP- 4.06
WHIP- 1.307

Leake
WAR- 6.2
ERA- 3.92
FIP- 4.21
WHIP- 1.294

Pretty similar. The difference is Leake has been consistent while Arrieta has had one great year. Leake is a couple years younger.

I agree Arrieta was better last year. Maybe he has it figured out. Or maybe he pitched over his head last year.

JoshBresser
02-08-2015, 04:33 PM
It's convenient to compare because they've both been in the league 5 years.

Career comparison

Arrieta
WAR- 6.3 (5.3 of that came last year)
ERA- 4.48
FIP- 4.06
WHIP- 1.307

Leake
WAR- 6.2
ERA- 3.92
FIP- 4.21
WHIP- 1.294

Pretty similar. The difference is Leake has been consistent while Arrieta has had one great year. Leake is a couple years younger.

I agree Arrieta was better last year. Maybe he has it figured out. Or maybe he pitched over his head last year.

Literally nothing in Arrieta's numbers suggest that he just got lucky. He was pretty dominant when he came to the Cubs in 2013 too, I believe. Better coaching + getting out of the AL East probably explain some of it. But, the projections on him are actually pretty pessimistic- at least compared to where he could be. But even those projections are still better than Leake's.

Leake has been consistent....ly average or slightly below. He only has one year where he was below the league average by a significant margin (2013.)

Leake is a good number 4 or 5 guy. Depending on him to be our 2/3 guy? Yikes.

gilpdawg
02-09-2015, 04:16 AM
Shields is going to SD.

NebraskaRed
02-09-2015, 08:45 AM
Literally nothing in Arrieta's numbers suggest that he just got lucky. He was pretty dominant when he came to the Cubs in 2013 too, I believe. Better coaching + getting out of the AL East probably explain some of it. But, the projections on him are actually pretty pessimistic- at least compared to where he could be. But even those projections are still better than Leake's.

Leake has been consistent....ly average or slightly below. He only has one year where he was below the league average by a significant margin (2013.)

Leake is a good number 4 or 5 guy. Depending on him to be our 2/3 guy? Yikes.

Right, but you argued that Arrieta was "light years" better than Leake, but I don't see the number that support a claim like that. Better than? I think so. Light years better than? Nope.

JoshBresser
02-09-2015, 01:01 PM
Padres got Shields. Good.

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Right, but you argued that Arrieta was "light years" better than Leake, but I don't see the number that support a claim like that. Better than? I think so. Light years better than? Nope.

Last year, he WAS light years better.

This year? To be seen. But the numbers suggest he will be again.