Trade Cueto right now

[fipp]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/2/28/8117309/reds-should-trade-johnny-cueto-now-mlb

The Reds are not contenders. That statement shouldn’t shock anyone reading this. Anything can happen in baseball, and as Yogi Berra famously said, "It ain’t over till it’s over." I could be eating my words come September 30th, but that seems unlikely given the current roster construction of the Reds. Fangraphs has them pegged for 76 wins, while PECOTA is projecting a slightly better season finishing with 79 wins. It may be tough to accept, as hope springs eternal for all 30 MLB teams this early in the spring, but it’s evident that the Reds need to trade Johnny Cueto, and the sooner the better.

Anyone who disagrees with the author?

[dougdirt]

I disagree with him.

Do the Reds need some help to contend? Sure. They need to stay healthy. But if they can stay mostly healthy, they've got quality pitching and they've got a quality offense. See where you are in June. If you aren't seeing a chance, a true chance, then trade Cueto. Doing it now means that no matter how good the rest of the team is, you aren't doing anything. This team has enough talent on it to be pretty good. Wait and see, adjust on the fly if needed.

[757690]

The definition of a contender these days is very different from the definition of one just a decade ago. The writer doesn't seem to understand that. Parity is the new black.

[SweetLou1990]

The Reds wouldn't trade him until after the All-Star game, if they are out of the race only. But here's to hoping they can't trade him.

[fipp]

I disagree with him.

Do the Reds need some help to contend? Sure. They need to stay healthy. But if they can stay mostly healthy,
I don't know what you are talking about. Have you actually seen those projections? Both Fangraphs and PECOTA projections assume that every team in MLB stays mostly healthy, in fact every projection system does. So that means that the problem for the Reds is not the health but the talent.


they've got quality pitching and they've got a quality offense.
Is this a joke or something?

[RedlegJake]

fipp, why would you assume that's a joke? ....pitching IS strong, defense is tremendous. Offense has question marks - which all but about 3 or 4 offenses in baseball have. I'm not pie-in-the-sky - I pick them for about 85-86 wins and just missing out on the playoffs, mostly bc of OBP problems, but they are hardly horrible.

[dubc47834]

I don't know what you are talking about. Have you actually seen those projections? Both Fangraphs and PECOTA projections assume that every team in MLB stays mostly healthy, in fact every projection system does. So that means that the problem for the Reds is not the health but the talent.


Is this a joke or something?

Key word there...PROJECTION. Reds are going to be solid. Prolly won't make the playoffs, but not gonna be unbearable to watch either. You've got 3 post and you're attacking people, not a good look man!

[dougdirt]

I don't know what you are talking about. Have you actually seen those projections? Both Fangraphs and PECOTA projections assume that every team in MLB stays mostly healthy, in fact every projection system does. So that means that the problem for the Reds is not the health but the talent.


Is this a joke or something?

Projections constantly under project Cueto and Votto because they tend to control their respective peripherals better than the average does. They both think Devin Mesoraco is a lot closer to his 2013 self than his 2014 self.

If Joey Votto is healthy and can OPS .875, Jay Bruce is healthy and can OPS .800 while Frazier and Mesoraco are remotely close to the guys they were last year, the offense IS going to be fine, if not quite good. Not the best in the league, but int he top half (of the NL - the AL with the DH sways things their way).

The pitching - Cueto/Bailey/Leake is a good 1-2-3. They need to stay healthy though. Cingrani, when healthy, has shown he's awfully good. There's risk there because of his health and questionable secondary offerings though. DeSclafani has strong peripherals that project much better than his 2014 ERA was. If he pitches to his peripherals he posted last year, he's going to be pretty good. The bullpen may need some help, but bullpens are fickle in general. The Reds have a lot of options to choose from. And they've got Chapman.

I'm not saying they are a lock to be very good. I'm saying there's a reasonable chance they could be and I'm not throwing that chance away before I see what we've got.

[kaldaniels]

Bear in mind, the plethora of injuries last season have dampened the projections for this season even moreso than usual as they are factoring in the possibility of continued poor health and the crummy play of 2013 (oft atributed to injuries). There is a basis for that, so I'm not questioning why they do that. But given just slightly above average health this season (gulp), the Reds should contend.

[lidspinner]

I don't know what you are talking about. Have you actually seen those projections? Both Fangraphs and PECOTA projections assume that every team in MLB stays mostly healthy, in fact every projection system does. So that means that the problem for the Reds is not the health but the talent.


Is this a joke or something?

I am of the mind that the Reds do have quality on their staff and in their pen and on offense....not every Yankees team that was stocked full of talent won the pennant.....not every Red Sox team who over paid to get every free agent under the sun came through like they were supposed to...not every Rangers team or Angels team did what they were supposed to do....why is that??? its because its baseball and and all it takes is for 1 pitcher to have a good few games and get some confidence and/or 1 offensive guy get hot and take his game to the next level that all the scouts and so called experts never thought they could do....once that happens on a team like the Reds, or the Athletics or the Rays or the Pirates or the Twins, then all those big name teams start to get a little scared and then they start to play scared......then the divivsion is all of a sudden up for grabs and your staring August in the face and your players start playing with a little pep in their step.....

the Reds have a good team put together....its not the exact team I would have hoped that they built given the options that I thought were available to them but non the less they still have a team that is capable of winning 90 games....they have a few young pitchers that other teams have not seen a whole lot of so they might catch a spark and take us deep into the season.
Trading JC right now tosses up the white flag before the season even starts and fans will revolt unless they go out there and put up 10 game winning streaks every month.....waiting until the deadline gives the Reds a chance to let the team gel, let the players make their own destiny and at the same time if you suck, you know there will be a team who thinks they are a JC away from winning it all and they will overpay for him.....they will pay more for him then they would now....

[Billy Budd]

The time to trade Cueto was last year, when you may have gotten something of worth ie top level hitting prospects, middle infielders, etc.
Perhaps, PERHAPS, they could swing a deal with the Red Sox, but I believe that the teams with well stocked farm systems in areas where the Reds need help right away... will not cash out their top prospects for a two month rental.

You might as well run him out there and pray by some miracle this club can win--because that back half of the rotation is awfully, AWFULLY sketchy.

[scotly50]

The Bullpen and our Offense are issues. After the meltdown to the Giants in the playoffs, this team should have been overhauled. That was our best shot and we fell short. We have been in decline ever since. I remember they changed their approach to our hitters after they got down two. It has been working against us ever since.

[RAY]

You guys are living in denial.

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2015/3/4/8151757/nl-central-preview-lukewarm-opinions-about-the-cardinals-and-their

THE REDS ARE THE WEAKEST TEAM IN THE CENTRAL. There are paths by which the Reds avoid sinking to the bottom of the standings. The team isn't barren of talent. Walt Jocketty is dreaming Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are co-comeback players of the year, Marlon Byrd doesn't decline (he's 37), Todd Frazier illustrates his 2014 was his true talent level and Billy Hamilton hits half as well as he runs. A few of Jocketty's dreams probably come true but in reality the Reds lineup will have trouble scoring runs and the starting rotation is not special. The only position player on the Reds with more than a 50/50 shot to be better his Cardinals coequal is Votto. Johnny Cueto is a good bet to be traded in July.

THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THE CARDINALS WIN THE DIVISION. I'll give the Pirates a 30% chance. The Cubs a 20% chance. The Brewers an 8% chance and the Reds a 2% chance.

CENTRAL DIVISION WIN TOTALS +/- 4:
Cardinals 88
Pirates 87
Cubs 84
Brewers 79
Reds 76

[RAY]

The Reds will have to commit to a Cubs-ian rebuild in the coming years.

[Old school 1983]

Don't feed the junkhead!

[RAY]

pitching IS strong
29th out of 30 by the projected WAR.
http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

[Tom Servo]

Well damn, if a Cardinals blog says we're finishing last, might as well just forfeit the whole season.

[RAY]

If Joey Votto is healthy and can OPS .875, Jay Bruce is healthy and can OPS .800 while Frazier and Mesoraco are remotely close to the guys they were last year, the offense IS going to be fine, if not quite good. Not the best in the league, but int he top half (of the NL - the AL with the DH sways things their way).
That's just ridiculous.
Do you remember the 2012 Reds? Do you also remember the fact that they were a below league-average offense team?


First, the idea that the team can make up for the lack of OBP with the SLG is simply not a good one.
Second, I’m afraid you can’t make up for this level of OBP deficiency with the SLG.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single? In short, no) and again ignores other ways of reaching base. On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8). In short, OPS is asking the right question, but we can arrive at a more accurate number quite easily.



The 2012 Reds offense had 22 more doubles, 10 more triples, 17 more home runs, 100 more TB, 2 more ROE, 20 more SB, 8 less CS, 29 less GDP, a 2 points higher BA and a 20 points higher SLG than the 2013 Reds offense. But the 2012 Reds (9th in Runs) scored 29 less runs than the 2013 Reds (3rd in Runs), even with more favorable run-scoring environment for them than for the 2013 team and the manager of the 2013 team not making the best use of Choo by letting the one of the worst hitter in baseball hit behind him. Why? The 2012 Reds had a 12 points lower OBP than the 2013 Reds.

- LEAGUE AVERAGES -
2012 NL: 683 Runs, .254/.318/.400/.718
2013 NL: 649 Runs, .251/.315/.388/.703

- The two-hole for the Reds (2013) -
.228/.281/.350/.632 (30th in AVG, 30th in OBP, 26th in SLG)


For your information, the following are OBPs (Min 300 PA) for the 2012 Reds.

Votto: .474
Hanigan: .365
Ludwick: .346
Frazier: .331
Bruce: .327
Phillips: .321
Rolen: .318
Heisey: .315
Cozart: .288
Stubbs: .277

and the 2012 Reds offense faced the crappy pitching in Brewers, Cubs and Astros many times during the season.

- Team ERA (2012) -
Cardinals (6th), Pirates (8th), Brewers (13th), Cubs (14th), Astros (15th)

- Team ERA (2013) -
Pirates (3rd), Cardinals (5th), Brewers (9th), Cubs (12th)

Look at those OBPs. The 2012 Reds were 12th in OBP in NL and the 2015 Reds are a much more OBP-challenged team than the 2012 team.

[RAY]

Well damn, if a Cardinals blog says we're finishing last, might as well just forfeit the whole season.
You know it's not just a Cardinals blog. Every projection, every prediction and every baseball writer says that the Reds suck.

[RAY]

The 2012 Reds won 97 games,

1.With a below league-average offense against these pitching staffs.

- Team ERA (2012) -
Cardinals (6th), Pirates (8th), Brewers (13th), Cubs (14th), Astros (15th)

- Team ERA (2013) -
Pirates (3rd), Cardinals (5th), Brewers (9th), Cubs (12th)


2. With a rotation that saw five guys all notch at least 30 starts each (only 7 starting rotations in history had done this before).

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2012/09/29/rotation-having-special-year/



3. In a weakest division in baseball at that time.

- WPCT -
29. Cubs 61-101 (.377)
30. Astros 55-107 (.340)


4. With a worse defense than the 2013 team

2012: 0.712 DE (12th in MLB), 1.18 PADE (11th in MLB)
2013: 0.727 DE (1st in MLB), 2.57 PADE (2nd in MLB)


You keep mentioning SLG and other factors. Okay, here are the PECOTA's projections which are the most favorable one to the Reds among many projections.

- SLG -
Brewers: .400
Cardinals: .396
Pirates: .394
Cubs: .392
Reds: .379

Only Braves, Phillies and Giants are worse in NL.

The reason that I emphasize the OBP is because this is the most basic and important thing for every team to score runs and this is what the Reds need the most among many things. Even Jocketty himself said at the end of last season that "the Reds need a different approach, have to stress OBP more" and then he traded for Byrd.

[RAY]

Well damn, if a Cardinals blog says we're finishing last, might as well just forfeit the whole season.
By the way, let me ask you a question: Do you still want to defend Walt as a GM. I know you are a Walt enthusiast.

[Old school 1983]

I heard junkheads thrive off of a steady diet of images from Cards blogs.

[RAY]

This from Jonah Keri.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-over-under-bets-chicago-cubs-houston-astros-oakland-as-tampa-bay-rays/

Cincinnati Reds: UNDER 78.5 wins

Here’s what really worries me about the Reds: If they’re out of or even on the fringes of the race come July, they’ll have so many veteran players — notably, Johnny Cueto and Jay Bruce — who’d make tempting trade bait that it would be hard to imagine them holding on to either one. The projection systems peg them at 77, and even that could be a bit too high, especially if the team gets off to a slow start.

[Tom Servo]

By the way, let me ask you a question: Do you still want to defend Walt as a GM. I know you are a Walt enthusiast.
Well it's pretty impressive that you know I am a "Walt enthusiast" considering you just registered here, but sure, put me in that check box. I think the team as currently constructed can make a run of it in 2015. If they fall flat on their face like they did the 2nd half of last season, I'd probably encourage making a change in regards to Price/Jocketty's job status.

[RAY]

I think the team as currently constructed can make a run of it in 2015.
I just can't believe it. So, you are basically saying that all those projections, predictions and baseball experts are wrong?

[Tom Servo]

I just can't believe it. So, you are basically saying that all those projections, predictions and baseball experts are wrong?
I was not aware projections and predictions are set in stone. I must have missed an announcement.

I'm a big believer in statistics, but I'm also a Reds fan and an optimist. Votto stays healthy, Bruce rights the ship, and Hamilton either gets on base more or gets moved down in the lineup and the offense should be pretty good. A little more bearish on the pitching but we have a lot of arms competing in spring training and a healthy Cingrani could be a game changer.

[Old school 1983]

Tom! Don't feed the junkhead!

[RAY]

Tom! Don't feed the junkhead!
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?105125-Karl-Ravech-destroying-Billy-Hamilton-on-the-BBTN-podcast/page30

The one thing I know for sure: Placing a speedy out-machine in the leadoff spot is just a stupid old-school idea.

[RAY]

I was not aware projections and predictions are set in stone. I must have missed an announcement.

I'm a big believer in statistics, but I'm also a Reds fan and an optimist. Votto stays healthy, Bruce rights the ship, and Hamilton either gets on base more or gets moved down in the lineup and the offense should be pretty good. A little more bearish on the pitching but we have a lot of arms competing in spring training and a healthy Cingrani could be a game changer.
OK, I give up.

[Old school 1983]

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?105125-Karl-Ravech-destroying-Billy-Hamilton-on-the-BBTN-podcast/page30

The Reds offensive woes last year had more to do with Votto being out and Bruce having a down year than Billy in the lineup. And no matter what your screen name is, you still don't get that not bringing Choo back wasn't based On an offensive talent assesment between he and Hamilton. We all get that. It was based on cost and age. You've contantky failed to see that. Choo is one of my favorite players, but I can barely stand to discuss this because you can't separate your fandom for a player from an analysis that showed the Reds couldn't likely afford him and he was and injury risk because of his age.

You seem like a reasonably intelligent guy. You make some good points, but at this point you're just trolling the board and certain members. We all get that Choo is a better hitter than Hamilton. We get that Kang has a chance to be good. We get that the Reds aren't the favorite in the Central. Quit picking on people and topics while using obviously biased sources and trolling techniques, and I wouldn't mind talking baseball with you.

[dougdirt]

OK, I give up.

Thankfully.

[dubc47834]

I just can't believe it. So, you are basically saying that all those projections, predictions and baseball experts are wrong?

Yes Junkhead, I think they CAN be wrong. Depends on health and bounch back years by Votto and Bruce!!!

[Assembly Hall]

I just can't believe it. So, you are basically saying that all those projections, predictions and baseball experts are wrong?

I think what everybody is saying is that you are no baseball expert. Projections and predictions don't mean squat. May be fun to talk about, but they mean nothing.

[RAY]

I think what everybody is saying is that you are no baseball expert. Projections and predictions don't mean squat. May be fun to talk about, but they mean nothing.
1. I'm afraid your post displays your ignorance to everyone. Do you realize that nearly every MLB front office has its own proprietary projection system?

2. Even without considering the projections, it's very easy to see that this team is not a contender.

They've got two main problems.
1. Offense (OBP)
2. Rotation (depth)

Do you know the way of scoring runs without getting on base? Do you think that this team can perform some kind of magic?

One simple mathematical truth: If you don't get on base, you can't score

[Assembly Hall]

1. I'm afraid your post displays your ignorance to everyone. Do you realize that nearly every MLB front office has its own proprietary projection system?

2. Even without considering the projections, it's very easy to see that this team is not a contender.

They've got two main problems.
1. Offense (OBP)
2. Rotation (depth)

Do you know the way of scoring runs without getting on base? Do you think that this team can perform some kind of magic?

One simple mathematical truth: If you don't get on base, you can't score


Well here is one for you......the season hasn't started yet. My baseball "ignorance" is based on what I see on the field. Not what projections and predictions are. As I said it is fun to talk about those things, but in reality they rarely come true. If you need a reference check out the 1989 Chicago Cubs.

[dougdirt]

1. I'm afraid your post displays your ignorance to everyone. Do you realize that nearly every MLB front office has its own proprietary projection system?

They probably do, except maybe the Marlins and Phillies. But here's the thing.... they are projections, not factual things. Look, I'm a big stats guy. I like looking at projections. Heck, I've even created my own projection system that fared pretty well when stacked up against ZiPS/PECOTA/STEAMER. I know how they work.

They are just guesses based on past performance. When you have a team that was full of injuries returning, the projections aren't going to look so good because the system doesn't know guys were hurt. They just know that guys didn't perform. And since it was the most recent season, it's weighted more than previous seasons when the guys were healthy. Now, maybe guys don't return to form. That is absolutely a possibility. No one is saying it's not.

What people are saying is that IF the Reds players perform like past expectations, or close to it, then this is a team that can compete.

Let's do a quick exercise here for the offense you seem to believe sucks beyond belief. I will lay out the OBP/SLG for the offensive players and then use a simple RC formula to project out the runs scored by the team. Then let's look at how that would stack up in the NL of 2014.

Billy Hamilton: .315/.360 (ZiPS has him at .314/.368) over 625 PA.
Todd Frazier: .330/.450 over 600 PA.
Joey Votto: .400/.470 over 500 PA.
Jay Bruce: .320/.460 over 600 PA.
Marlon Byrd: .310/.470 over 600 PA.
Devin Mesoraco: .330/.480 over 525 PA.
Brandon Phillips: .310/.390 over 600 PA.
Zack Cozart: .280/.375 over 500 PA.
Pitchers: .165/.180 (what they hit last year) over 350 PA.
Bench: .290/.350 over 1000 PA

That puts the Reds at 5900 PA for the season. That offense would produce roughly 680 runs (OBP*SLG*AB formula for RC). That's the 5th most runs in the NL and really in line with the two teams right above them with only the Dodgers and Rockies over the 690 run mark last year.

Now, if you want to suggest why some of my rough projections are out of whack, we can do that. But I think that they are all pretty much in line with either past production or in line with what some projection systems say for 2015.

[fipp]

They probably do, except maybe the Marlins and Phillies. But here's the thing.... they are projections, not factual things. Look, I'm a big stats guy. I like looking at projections. Heck, I've even created my own projection system that fared pretty well when stacked up against ZiPS/PECOTA/STEAMER. I know how they work.

They are just guesses based on past performance. When you have a team that was full of injuries returning, the projections aren't going to look so good because the system doesn't know guys were hurt. They just know that guys didn't perform. And since it was the most recent season, it's weighted more than previous seasons when the guys were healthy. Now, maybe guys don't return to form. That is absolutely a possibility. No one is saying it's not.

What people are saying is that IF the Reds players perform like past expectations, or close to it, then this is a team that can compete.

Let's do a quick exercise here for the offense you seem to believe sucks beyond belief. I will lay out the OBP/SLG for the offensive players and then use a simple RC formula to project out the runs scored by the team. Then let's look at how that would stack up in the NL of 2014.

Billy Hamilton: .315/.360 (ZiPS has him at .314/.368) over 625 PA.
Todd Frazier: .330/.450 over 600 PA.
Joey Votto: .400/.470 over 500 PA.
Jay Bruce: .320/.460 over 600 PA.
Marlon Byrd: .310/.470 over 600 PA.
Devin Mesoraco: .330/.480 over 525 PA.
Brandon Phillips: .310/.390 over 600 PA.
Zack Cozart: .280/.375 over 500 PA.
Pitchers: .165/.180 (what they hit last year) over 350 PA.
Bench: .290/.350 over 1000 PA

That puts the Reds at 5900 PA for the season. That offense would produce roughly 680 runs (OBP*SLG*AB formula for RC). That's the 5th most runs in the NL and really in line with the two teams right above them with only the Dodgers and Rockies over the 690 run mark last year.

Now, if you want to suggest why some of my rough projections are out of whack, we can do that. But I think that they are all pretty much in line with either past production or in line with what some projection systems say for 2015.
The basic RC formula that you are using underweights walks and overweights all types of hits but particularly extra base hits. In other words, it overvalues SLG and undervalues OBP.

[dougdirt]

The basic RC formula that you are using underweights walks and overweights all types of hits but particularly extra base hits. In other words, it overvalues SLG and undervalues OBP.

It's quick and easy and still pretty close to accurate. 17 teams in baseball last year were within 20 runs of their OBP*SLG*AB runs created totals for actual runs scored. It's back of the napkin math that works good enough to make the point that I am trying to make without sitting down and figuring out what the exactly lines would be for every hitter in a lineup including AB/H/2B/3B/HR/SH/SF/HBP/SB/CS.

[Old school 1983]

So there may be 2 junkhead screen names. Yay!

[fipp]

It's quick and easy and still pretty close to accurate. 17 teams in baseball last year were within 20 runs of their OBP*SLG*AB runs created totals for actual runs scored. It's back of the napkin math that works good enough to make the point that I am trying to make without sitting down and figuring out what the exactly lines would be for every hitter in a lineup including AB/H/2B/3B/HR/SH/SF/HBP/SB/CS.

First, the idea that the team can make up for the lack of OBP with the SLG is simply not a good one.
Second, I’m afraid you can’t make up for this level of OBP deficiency with the SLG.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single? In short, no) and again ignores other ways of reaching base. On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8). In short, OPS is asking the right question, but we can arrive at a more accurate number quite easily.


The 2012 Reds offense had 22 more doubles, 10 more triples, 17 more home runs, 100 more TB, 2 more ROE, 20 more SB, 8 less CS, 29 less GDP, a 2 points higher BA and a 20 points higher SLG than the 2013 Reds offense. But the 2012 Reds (9th in Runs) scored 29 less runs than the 2013 Reds (3rd in Runs), even with more favorable run-scoring environment for them than for the 2013 team and the manager of the 2013 team not making the best use of Choo by letting the one of the worst hitter in baseball hit behind him. Why? The 2012 Reds had a 12 points lower OBP than the 2013 Reds.

- LEAGUE AVERAGES -
2012 NL: 683 Runs, .254/.318/.400/.718
2013 NL: 649 Runs, .251/.315/.388/.703

- The two-hole for the Reds (2013) -
.228/.281/.350/.632 (30th in AVG, 30th in OBP, 26th in SLG)

Team batting line and actual runs scored:

2012 Reds: .251/.315/.411/.726 (669 RS)
2013 Reds: .249/.327/.391/.718 (698 RS)


The result of using the most basic RC formula:

2012 Reds: 0.315 (OBP) X 0.411 (SLG) X 5477 (AB) = 709 runs
2013 Reds: 0.327 (OBP) x 0.391 (SLG) x 5499 (AB) = 703 runs


Does that make sense? The simple answer is no.
There are about fifteen different, and more sophisticated, versions of RC on Earth and there is a good reason why something called WRC exists out there.

[757690]

I'm so glad those projection systems all correctly projected that the Orioles and Angels would win their divisions and the Royals would go to the World Series and the Red Sox would be in last place. It's crazy how accurate they are ;)

[Old school 1983]

I'm so glad those projection systems all correctly projected that the Orioles and Angels would win their divisions and the Royals would go to the World Series and the Red Sox would be in last place. It's crazy how accurate they are ;)

Good info to look at. But by no means ironclad...and at this point driven into the dirt.

[fipp]

Good info to look at. But by no means ironclad...and at this point driven into the dirt.
Hey Old school 1983, what do you think of these two graphs?


http://metsmerizedonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/on-base-percentage-vs-runs-scored.jpg?6c20df

http://metsmerizedonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/woba-v-runs-scored.jpg?6c20df

What do the above two graphs suggest to you?

[Old school 1983]

Hey Old school 1983, what do you think of these two graphs?


http://metsmerizedonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/on-base-percentage-vs-runs-scored.jpg?6c20df

http://metsmerizedonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/woba-v-runs-scored.jpg?6c20df

What do the above two graphs suggest to you?

1. Nothing that I already haven't read before.
2. You're junkhead and you have absolutely no tact or social skills and care more about trolling the board than discussing baseball.

[Old school 1983]

Projections aren't set in stone, and the ones regarding the Reds, arguably, have underestimated a few players. Until some common ground is met in the regard, this thread won't be anything more than an exercise in trolling by a bitter former poster, who at one point, actually posted good stuff. That's makes it more of a shame. Junk, until you consider the real possibility that the Reds can outplay the projections then you're really not going to make much headway here.

[dougdirt]

Team batting line and actual runs scored:

2012 Reds: .251/.315/.411/.726 (669 RS)
2013 Reds: .249/.327/.391/.718 (698 RS)


The result of using the most basic RC formula:

2012 Reds: 0.315 (OBP) X 0.411 (SLG) X 5477 (AB) = 709 runs
2013 Reds: 0.327 (OBP) x 0.391 (SLG) x 5499 (AB) = 703 runs


Does that make sense? The simple answer is no.
There are about fifteen different, and more sophisticated, versions of RC on Earth and there is a good reason why something called WRC exists out there.

Trust me, I know there are better ones available. But I also don't have the time to come up with the PA/AB/H/2B/3B/HR/BB/HBP/SH/SF/SB/CS for every player on the team either. It's quick and dirty and still pretty close. You are trying to make something far more complicated than it needs to be for an example of why the offense may not be the worst thing since lawn dart tournaments for 7-year-olds.

[dougdirt]

Hey Old school 1983, what do you think of these two graphs?


http://metsmerizedonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/on-base-percentage-vs-runs-scored.jpg?6c20df

http://metsmerizedonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/woba-v-runs-scored.jpg?6c20df

What do the above two graphs suggest to you?

They tell me that someone needs to learn to use excel better. That chart could easily read properly instead of 0.27 or 0.3 and read .270, but someone doesn't use excel very well.

[Redus]

The last time something like this actually happened was when Dave Burba was traded to The Tribe for Sean Casey a couple days before he was gonna start opening day. Now that did work out well for us but lord, the feeling that your team was giving up before the season started and you had to watch 162 games still was truly gut wrenching. I dont wanna go through that again.

[fipp]

Trust me, I know there are better ones available. But I also don't have the time to come up with the PA/AB/H/2B/3B/HR/BB/HBP/SH/SF/SB/CS for every player on the team either. It's quick and dirty and still pretty close. You are trying to make something far more complicated than it needs to be for an example of why the offense may not be the worst thing since lawn dart tournaments for 7-year-olds.
Don't you remember you were taking about the offense in the top half of the league?


If Joey Votto is healthy and can OPS .875, Jay Bruce is healthy and can OPS .800 while Frazier and Mesoraco are remotely close to the guys they were last year, the offense IS going to be fine, if not quite good. Not the best in the league, but int he top half (of the NL - the AL with the DH sways things their way).

How about trying these formulas? it's pretty simple compared to the other ones.


LWTS = .46*1B + .80*2B + 1.02*3B + 1.40*HR + .33*(BB + HBP) + .30*SB – .60*CS – .25*(AB – H)

XRR = (.50 × 1B) + (.72 × 2B) + (1.04 × 3B) + (1.44 × HR) + (.33 × (HP+TBB)) + (.18 × SB) + (−.32 × CS) + ((−.098 × (AB − H))

XRB = (.50 × 1B) + (.72 × 2B) + (1.04 × 3B) + (1.44 × HR) + (.34 × (TBB)) + (.18 × SB) + (−.32 × CS) + (−.096 × (AB − H))

[dougdirt]

Dude. Just stop.

I know they are better and more accurate. I have explained three times now that I don't have time to project all of the peripheral parts that go into creating the data to use the more sophisticated options. If you want to, go for it. I'm not doing it because I don't have the time to do it. As I've explained multiple times now.

[fipp]

Even a stupid Dave Cameron knows this.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/division-preview-nl-central/

Cincinnati Reds

But 2015 is likely the year where the Reds window closes on this group, forcing the organization to start building for the future. At least they’ll have the All-Star Game though.


Take your head out of the clouds and get in the real world.

[toledodan]

no way i trade him till deadline. prospects and amount of desperate teams will rise. if for some reason we are in the race than even better.

[SuperFan17]

no way i trade him till deadline. prospects and amount of desperate teams will rise. if for some reason we are in the race than even better.

I agree. If the A's gave away McKinney and Russell for Samardja and Hammels--the Reds could get something out of a negative situation.
However--I hope it is not a deal like the Tigers made in which they received David Price
for
Jackson to the Mariners, and an A ball player and Drew Smyly although I do think Smyly is effective, if he is solely a reliever, then not so much.)

[swaisuc]

The Reds will have to commit to a Cubs-ian rebuild in the coming years.

There is always plenty of time to tear and down and rebuild if that becomes necessary. It is much harder to get a potential "winning window" year back if you pass it up while you have the chance. Even if I knew you were absolutely right and we need to start from scratch, I would prefer to start that process in 2016 rather than 2015 if I've got the choice.

Besides that, after this year we are going to know a lot more Frazier and Mesoraco. We'll know the price for Cueto. We'll know more about Billy. We'll know if Bruce bounces back. Basically, we will know if we should expect to be good in 2016-2018 with this group. If enough of those come back negative, then a rebuild would be understandable. There is a chance that a year from now, if guys likes Mes/Fraz repeat and guys like Votto/Bruce don't repeat, that we're looking at this core plus Stephenson/Winker/etc and thinking a major rebuild isn't necessary.

I won't be shocked if we struggle this year. Just wait and see

[SweetLou1990]

Trade your best pitcher and forfeit the season? Pass. There's time to do this after the all star game.

[fipp]

Trade your best pitcher and forfeit the season? Pass. There's time to do this after the all star game.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview15/story/_/id/12588378/expert-team-predictions-2015-mlb-season

We recently polled 88 ESPN experts for their team predictions (division winners, League Championship Series winners and World Series winner) for the upcoming season.

In the NL Central, the St. Louis Cardinals topped the list by getting 48 votes followed by the Pittsburgh Pirates (33), Chicago Cubs (6) and Milwaukee Brewers (1).

Below are 15 of our experts' picks for '15:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GFHDTfwR2_8/VSEVAuSlZKI/AAAAAAAAAbc/mSwBj_PuNyQ/s1600/a.jpg

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ay5gCF570_4/VSEVCXQ4JII/AAAAAAAAAbk/bdSMU-kcqvc/s1600/b.jpg

[villain612]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview15/story/_/id/12588378/expert-team-predictions-2015-mlb-season


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GFHDTfwR2_8/VSEVAuSlZKI/AAAAAAAAAbc/mSwBj_PuNyQ/s1600/a.jpg

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ay5gCF570_4/VSEVCXQ4JII/AAAAAAAAAbk/bdSMU-kcqvc/s1600/b.jpg


I guess there's no need to play the games then.

[Old school 1983]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview15/story/_/id/12588378/expert-team-predictions-2015-mlb-season


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GFHDTfwR2_8/VSEVAuSlZKI/AAAAAAAAAbc/mSwBj_PuNyQ/s1600/a.jpg

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ay5gCF570_4/VSEVCXQ4JII/AAAAAAAAAbk/bdSMU-kcqvc/s1600/b.jpg

The junkhead saga continues....

[dougdirt]

I guess there's no need to play the games then.

That stinks. I was really looking forward to the Reds playing baseball. Thanks for ruining my spring, summer AND fall. Jerk.

[villain612]

That stinks. I was really looking forward to the Reds playing baseball. Thanks for ruining my spring, summer AND fall. Jerk.

Look on the bright side, I just saved $19.99 a month by not needing to buy mlb.tv.

[CySeymour]

I wonder how many of those "experts" predicted the Royals to make the World Series last season.

[fipp]

I wonder how many of those "experts" predicted the Royals to make the World Series last season.
I don't know about that but one thing I do know is that the 2014 Royals were an extremely lucky team.
In fact, they (+10.4) were the luckiest team in baseball last year and were almost as lucky as the 2012 Reds (+11.3).

2012 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/index_2012.php?odate=2012-10-03

2013 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/final_2013.html

2014 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

"The experts" simply can't predict the luck & fortune (e.g. cluster luck) of the team.

[CySeymour]

I don't know about that but one thing I do know is that the 2014 Royals were an extremely lucky team.
In fact, they (+10.4) were the luckiest team in baseball last year and were almost as lucky as the 2012 Reds (+11.3).

2012 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/index_2012.php?odate=2012-10-03

2013 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/final_2013.html

2014 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

"The experts" simply can't predict the luck & fortune (e.g. cluster luck) of the team.

Which was my point. When predicting a season, there is too much noise to "know" what will happen.

[dougdirt]

Look on the bright side, I just saved $19.99 a month by not needing to buy mlb.tv.

How does that help me out? :p

[dubc47834]

I don't know about that but one thing I do know is that the 2014 Royals were an extremely lucky team.
In fact, they (+10.4) were the luckiest team in baseball last year and were almost as lucky as the 2012 Reds (+11.3).

2012 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/index_2012.php?odate=2012-10-03

2013 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/final_2013.html

2014 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

"The experts" simply can't predict the luck & fortune (e.g. cluster luck) of the team.

Soooo...the Reds can be a lucky team this year and make the playoffs....hold off on that copy and paste and to trading Cueto until after the All-Star game. If we are out of contention, then yes, trade him!!!

[_Sir_Charles_]

fipp = junkhead = troll

Don't feed the fipp.

[fipp]

This is one of many misconceptions in baseball and simply false.


If the Reds had just played .500 ball in one run games last year, they would've ended up with 84 wins. Instead, they were 22-38 in those games. That's brutal.

- 2014 Reds -
Actual W-L: 76-86
BaseRuns : 74-88
3rd Order Wins: 74.9-87.1

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns#NL-C
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/index.php?odate=2014-09-28

You can't assume they were unlucky just because their record in one-run games was poor. You have to consider the underlying team stats and when you do, you will know that they actually overperformed by 1.1~2 wins

[fipp]

fipp = junkhead = troll

Don't feed the fipp.
Thank you, OPTIMIST.

[villain612]

This is one of many misconceptions in baseball and simply false.



- 2014 Reds -
Actual W-L: 76-86
BaseRuns : 74-88
3rd Order Wins: 74.9-87.1

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns#NL-C
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/index.php?odate=2014-09-28

You can't assume they were unlucky just because their record in one-run games was poor. You have to consider the underlying team stats and when you do, you will know that they actually overperformed by 1.1~2 wins

Where did I say they were just unlucky?

[swaisuc]

I don't know about that but one thing I do know is that the 2014 Royals were an extremely lucky team.
In fact, they (+10.4) were the luckiest team in baseball last year and were almost as lucky as the 2012 Reds (+11.3).

2012 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/index_2012.php?odate=2012-10-03

2013 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/final_2013.html

2014 Adjusted Standings
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

"The experts" simply can't predict the luck & fortune (e.g. cluster luck) of the team.

I'm fine with the "keep Cueto and try to get lucky" plan. The Royals and others have shown that just putting yourself in the conversation gives you a chance if things break right. With Cueto making 34 starts we're in the conversation. Without that, we're not.

[REDREAD]

"The experts" simply can't predict the luck & fortune (e.g. cluster luck) of the team.

And that's why the Reds shouldn't trade Cueto. With a little bit of "luck", they can make the playoffs.

What kind of luck do the Reds need? Well, Votto and Bruce look healthier. Billy has started off hot. We need Homer to get better and the end of the rotation to be adequate.

Doesn't seem like an impossible task.

If you look at all the "expert" predictions in any sports, it's highly correlated to the teams that did well the year before or made big splashes in the offseason.