View Full Version : Your Top 10 prospects in the Reds system?

06-30-2004, 01:37 PM
I am quite bored today sitting here waiting to head into work. So I was curious as to what the posters of Redszone feel about the Reds minor league prospects.

I personally am not going to include this years draft class because I have no idea how good any of them really are.

My picks:

1. Ryan Wagner - Even after the disappointing early 2004 season I think Wagner has the arm and pitches to be a top level closer. ML ready in: 2005

2. Edwin Encarnacion - Hitting very well at AA for only being 21. Has 20-30 HR power potential and I wuld guess should be able to hit .280+ in the ML.
ML ready in: Late 2005

3. Dustin Moseley - 22 and putting up great #s in AA. Should be in AAA, but I digress. He seems to have the off speed pitches to go along with a spottable 90+ fastball. ML ready in: Late 2005

4. Thomas Pauly - Only in his 2nd pro year and pitching very well. 77/16 K/W ration in 64 IP..Yummy. Once Moseley moves to AAA, I look for Pauly to get the call up to AA before Gardner. ML ready in: 2006-7

5. Brandon Claussen - Much talked about, but has yet to fully get back to pre arm surgery level. Hopefully that can happen before next spring trainging. He's a lefty who Ks people. Hopefully in time he can get back to where he once was. Ml ready in: 2005

6. Tony Blanco - .306 .403 .588 in High A with 17 HR. To bad he doesn't play like 2B or C. He seems to be rebounding back to top lvl Red Sox prospect. Hopefully he can continue to produce at a high level. I would also like him to get his walk rate up more. ML ready in: 2006

7. Richie Gardner - I am basing this mostly on #s alone but those #s are very good. 81IP 75/13 K/W 2.21 ERA Not sure what he throws or his radar ratings, but those #s are pretty darn solid. ML ready in: 2007

8. Todd Coffey - This is a new one on the radar. Only 23 and putting up dominating #s at AA. It's hard to put a reliever on a Top 10 list, but he earns it. 1.67 ERA 32IP 40/2 K/W ratio. ML ready in: Late 2004, 2005

9. Tyler Pelland - This was one I couldn't really decide on, but his potential is as good as anyones in the system. Throws mid to high 90s and is a lefty. He struggled mightily in his attempt at A ball, but was still young for that lvl. Has gone back to Billings and hopefully will dominate and regain his confidence. ML ready in: 2007-8

10. Chris Gruler - Theres a reason he was drafted in the top 5. Hopefully the surgery has corrected his arm problems and he can begin to regain his velocity and start pitching his way to Cincinnati.

Honorable mention: Calvin Medlock, David Shafer, Chris Booker, Joey Votto, Chris Denorfia, William Bergolla, Matt Belisle, Steve Smitherman.

I did not take into account any of the current injured pitchers such as Dumatrait, Howington, Basham, and Hall, etc....

Let me know what you guys think of the Reds system.

06-30-2004, 01:45 PM
1)Thomas Pauly: yummy power pitcher with haughty K numbers.
2)Edwin Encarncion: Good overall player
3)Dustin Moseley: maturing pitcher who is showing some pop
4)Rich Gardner: Pauly's sidekick
5)Brandon Claussen: Struggled in May, inconsistant in June, ready to shake this prospect label however
6)Tony Blanco: Injured to much, but having breakout year in Potomic
7)William Bergolla: raw, athletic type of player
8)Joey Votto: Well rounded player who may become the best player from the weak 2002 draft
9)Calvin Medlock: good "stuff" pitcher with improving velocity
10)Tyler Pelland: slow developing lefty with great arm but needs work on mechanics.

06-30-2004, 01:47 PM
I'd take Gruler off the list for a year at least.

I really like Booker, and Coffey. They both deserve promotions to AAA

06-30-2004, 01:48 PM
Aronchis, you don't think Ryan Wagner is one of our top prospects? I just find that interesting... (not criticizing you or anything)

06-30-2004, 01:52 PM
Aronchis, you don't think Ryan Wagner is one of our top prospects? I just find that interesting... (not criticizing you or anything)

I don't consider him a prospect. Just a young player who went for a pit stop down in AAA.

06-30-2004, 01:53 PM
1.Encarnacion - Great bat and has range at 3B like most young players he can get lazy at times with his footwork which causes bad throws, easily correctable
2. Moseley- Dominating AA and has succeed at AAA before at 21 now at 22 he is projecting very nicely into a #2 or #3 starter.
3. Wagner - Worries me that he cannot locate his fastball, love his power arm in the back of the pen though.
4. Votto- Mashing in Low A and he is young for the level, he should progress very nicely.
5. Claussen - Struggling some but the high K numbers show that he should improve.
6. Gardner- Throwing great at High A and might earn a promotion soon. He struggled in the All Star game but that doesn't worry me at all.
7. Nelson - Got rocked at AAA but no doubting his stuff and what he can be. If he gains his comand back he could start in the Reds rotation in '05.
8. Bergolla - Far from a finished product and doesnt take too many walks but he is hitting well and he can fly. He is showing a slighty better BB rate this season potential top of the order guy.
9. Blanco- Power is unreal right now in High A and he could make the jump to AA soon, he can play multiple positions and has all the physical tools.
10. Pauly- Good K rate at High A and overall has pretty solid stuff accross the board. A college guy who is advanced could be a starter or even a power set up guy.
11. Gruler
12. Pelland
13. Denorfia
14. Belisle
15. Sardinha
16. Booker
17. Miguel Perez
18. Jim Paduch
19.Wily Jo Ronda
20. Kevin Howard
21. Smitherman
22. Hector Tiburico
23. Joe Valentine
24. Ranier Feliz
25. Calvin Medlock
I also didnt include this years draftees or the injured guys: Hall, Basham, Howington, and Aramboles.

06-30-2004, 01:58 PM
isn't Aramboles pitching somewhere? Potomac? is he injured again?

06-30-2004, 01:59 PM
What about The Bong?

06-30-2004, 02:11 PM
Aramboles is injured again per the cannons website. Bong isnt a prospect in my mind too much service time, much like Felipe Lopez and Ray Olmedo. granted I have a little inconsistancy with Wagner but it is my list so i felt I could have a small bit of inconsistancy.

06-30-2004, 02:18 PM
A few caveats, I use the BA qualifier that to make the list you still must have major league rookie status. That means that Felipe Lopez doesn't count.

I give preference on level of advancement. If you've done something right at AA, that counts a lot more than terrorizing the Midwest League.

And I don't count rookie ballers (unless I have to) and guys who've yet to play. If you haven't showed up in at least low A and done something good, then you won't be getting any love from me.

1. Edwin Encarnacion - He's heads and shoulders above everyone else in the system. He's 21 with five tools and a great eye at the plate. He not only has the highest ceiling of anyone in the system, he's right now the best player in the system as well.

2. Ryan Wagner - He's been fine in AAA (I thought he pulled himself together in the majors before his demotion), but obviously he's not as automatic as we'd hoped. I still wish the Reds would consider turning him into a starter, but there's nothing wrong with being a power closer, which he should be.

3. Todd Coffey - What?! Coffey's been sick, off the charts sick, in AA this season: 1.67 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 11.14 K/9, 13.33 K/BB. If Ryan Wagner were doing that we'd be coated in drool. All I'm saying is that your drool glands should be just as active even if it's Todd Coffey doing it. He's been the organization's biggest revelation this season and they might just have a stud reliever on their hands.

4. Brandon Claussen - Bad season, but he's still a heartbeat away from the bigs and he does still possess a K pitch. I don't what he needs to do to make the final leap (aside from get batter out with greater frequency), but he'll probably be up in September and I'm sure he's going to get plenty of chances in 2005 as well.

5. Richie Gardner - Looky, a power pitcher. It's only his first year and he's still got a long way to go (about three years to be exact), but he's 100% of what the Reds need.

6. Thomas Pauly - Currently forms the Legion of Whiff tandem with Gardner in Potomac. He's been particularly hot of late. Another power arm worth genuine excitement. Caution: Excitement shouldn't be shown in the form of promoting pitchers until they're over their heads, causing them to try and throw pitches that they can't throw, which leads quickly to injury.

7. Dustin Moseley - He's having a fine season and I think he might be able to come to the majors in 2006 and help the club. The reason I rank him below Gardner and Pauly is they've got power potential that Dustin doesn't. IMO he's got Ryan Madson upside, but remember the Phillies took their time with Madson and tempered their expectations. Dustin's not going to get there in a single leap.

8. Joey Votto - He's got the eye of the hydra. The power's starting to show and it will continue to grow. In fact another step or two up the power scale and he will take off as a stratospheric hitting prospect. Could be 2005 or 2006, but rest assured, it's coming.

9. Calvin Medlock - A draft-and-follow out of HS who has ruled the Midwest League: 2.55 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.96 K/9, 5.21 K/BB. Good news is he's age appropriate for his level too. He's this year's Basham.

10. Chris Dickerson - Needs to develop more power and figure out how to use all that speed, but he's possibly the best defensive player in the system and he's shown an ability to hit for a decent average to go with a killer eye. Could be a high OB leadoff CF or he could develop into a more complete player. Unlike William Bergolla (no BB), he's showing the kind of game that can succeed at any level.

06-30-2004, 02:19 PM
Open question - If WMP is still considered a prospect. Would he be #1 on this list?

06-30-2004, 02:22 PM
Open question - If WMP is still considered a prospect. Would he be #1 on this list?

I'd slot him second behind Encarnacion.

06-30-2004, 03:10 PM
How many of these guys are likely to produce more than average big league seasons?

Booker could become a dominant closer. Because of his age and serious arm problems, he is discounted by some. He is one of the few pitchers we have with brute power.

Wagner could tandem with Booker for a nice 1-2 bullpen punch. His stuff is different enough, with that devastating slider to make them offset each other well.

Claussen is a puzzle. His peripheral numbers are good but he is struggling. The I remember he is a lefty and traditionally they "blossom" later. Someone tell me why but it is one of those old baseball truisms. Anyway, he is anywhere from a #2 to #4 starter in the big leagues. Likely not as good as the biggest hype but definitely a major league capable talent. Just enough of a power arm to begin a differentiation between our starters - I agree that one huge problem for our staff is teams are essentially seeing the same guy night after night - our starters have similar repertoires and velocity.

Moseley. He may actually wind up better than Claussen. This guy can pitch - he appears to have that elusive and essential ingredient for really good pitchers - an idea, combined with enough stuff to carry it out. Reminds me of a young Greg Maddux. That is huge hype, I know, but I'm talking about his ceiling, not his likely production. Still, teamed with lefty harder throwing Claussen they make a nice combination as a starting tandem.

Nelson - His stuff is real. Now it's mostly confidence and mechanics. I think he makes the Reitsma trade look good in the long view but he isn't likely to be ready before Sep 05 and more likely sometime in 06. His trademate KJ Bong gives us a crafty lefty with a terrific sweeping curve. This tandem is also righty-lefty, this time with the righty being the power pitcher. I see Bong in long relief roles and spot starting more than I do as a rotation set piece, but as a number 5 he might be okay - especially if he follows a power pitcher.

Todd Coffey - Hit AA running and is prime for a jump to AAA. I like the fact the Reds aren't promoting willy-nilly anymore. Let this kid dominate there all summer. Then next year a long look in spring, start out in Louisville and if he continues to dominate, he's in our bullpen by June.

Claussen, Moseley, Nelson, Bong, Coffey, Wagner, Booker. That's the makings of a good young pitching staff. Left-Right, power-finesse, starters-relievers. Balance and potential. Give these kids a year, add Ace and maybe Harang (another mix of styles), Reidling if he hasn't been traded and it actually ooks promising.

I don't include any of the draftees or the A ball guys because they are too far away. Many of them will drop from sight at AA levels. I agree with guys on these other list, all of them are solid talents but at their level their are Soooo many ??? its too hard to predict anything including when they will arrive. I don't think that's at all possible before a season of AA ball.

As for hitters, Edwin of course tops my list. I think he'll be here in September. Mark third as solved. I really am high on William Bergolla. He won't make you happy if you expect every player in Red to hit 30 homers a year, but he'll play second with range, has terrific speed and is a prototypical leadoff man. He needs to walk more.

Sardinha may surprise people - he has shown much better hitting and is a very good D catcher. Likely he'll be a backup unless he can hit in the bigs like he has this year for the Bats, which isn't that likely.

That is all the help I see from our system for a couple of years. Medlock, Gardner, Pauly, Shafer, Bailey - these guys may become top pitchers but we need another year from them at minimum to really assess them.

Shortstop is a huge hole. Janish, our new draftee has started out well at Billings, but hey - Gary Redus hit like .460 there one summer. Way too far out to project him as the starter someday and if you do who plays there for the next 2-3 years while Janish develops? Lopez reeks. I'd really rather keep Brandon Larson and let him play short - that is not a sign of how much I like Larson but how much I dislike FeLo. I used to call a headcase a "Tomko" but I think I'm going to start calling them "Felo's". Larson should sell his body to medical science and make his fortune being examined for every injury known to mankind. Between Kearns and Larson I am not sure which to declare a "National Pasttime Disaster Waiting to Happen" Award. Kearns at least is a proven hitter and defensive talent worth waiting for. Larson may wind up the greatest player no one outside Louisville cares about. Get AK healthy, team him with AD, Jr or WMP (one combination - someone is getting traded, just a ? of who) and the outfield is set. EE handles third. Jiminez handles second til Bergolla arrives. Casey should not be traded and will man first. Catching will be handled adequately with whoever- LaRue, Sardinha, et al.

Shortstop then is our black hole. Nobody in the system above rookie ball, and not many top shortstops being bandied about in trade talks. If you have a good shortstop you keep him (unless he makes 250 million a year). Bowden's try at trading for young talent (FeLo) flopped, maybe O'B can do better. I see it as a key to winning the next couple seasons (not the WS key, just staying competitive "winning").

Our second need is a stopper at the top of the rotation. Someone who can pitch head-on with Beckett or Prior or Oswalt in a playoff game and be counted on to give us a chance to win. The answer to this is plainly money. We may develop our own but that means a few years down the road unless Bailey is a true wunderkind. A mistake on a LTC here and you're crippled for a couple years minimum, that's why I was just as glad NOT to get Garcia. He's a "Tomko"- er- "Felo". He might be great or he might be awful and he's likely to be both on consecutive nights. I'd rather take a chance on Zito, or use AK/Dunn/WMP (1 not all three, okay) to pry away a Zach Day type from someone and develop our own a lot quicker. Of course, you better be right again, becuase any of those 3 outfielders is likely to be a great player for years to come. If your ace in return turns out to be pyrite, then you've traded away your one true bargaining chip for didley-squat.

The Bullpen needs immediate help but we have a few guys in the pipeline who can help there. I worry about it less long term (short term it needs a good kick outta Cincy and refitting). In fact by the end of next season I look at it as a strength.

I give O'Brien this summer and the winter to make the right deals. I accept his caution. We're more than a spare tire away from winning this race and I want him bolting the right parts on the engine.

06-30-2004, 03:22 PM
1. Encarnacion
2. Wagner
3. Pauley
4. Nelson
5. Gardner
6. Claussen
7. Mosely
8. Votto
9. Bergolla
10. Blanco

06-30-2004, 03:24 PM
SC, the Reds won't bat 1.000 on the pitching prospects or anything close to it. They'd do well to hit .250 in that regard.

Most of their better pitching prospects are still two, three, even four years away on top of that. Even Claussen, the most advanced of all the team's pitching prospects, probably will require a sound thrashing in the majors in 2005 before he figures out how to thrive at that level.

Failing to take those things into consideration, something the Reds have historically failed to do, just leads to more pitching by calamity. Sooner or later this organization has to stop operating on the unrealistic assumption that they're about to get terribly lucky.

06-30-2004, 04:14 PM
Open question - If WMP is still considered a prospect. Would he be #1 on this list?

Yes, hands down (at least IMO). He was #1 for me before the season started, even ahead of Wagner. Wagner #2, and Encarcion #3.

06-30-2004, 04:19 PM
I know Seth Etherton was a rookie in 98, but he might be on the short list for guys to come to the majors if we start having SP injuries!

06-30-2004, 04:20 PM
Yes, hands down (at least IMO). He was #1 for me before the season started, even ahead of Wagner. Wagner #2, and Encarcion #3.

I'm with Redread - if Pena were included he'd be #1. Then I'd have Encarnacion, Claussen, Wagner.

I believe Claussen has a higher ceiling and is a starting pitcher, Wagner only comes out ahead if he becomes a lights out closer (and I'm much less confident in this than I was last year)

06-30-2004, 04:58 PM
I have never seen any of these guys play so I'm not going to rank anyone. I do have some questions though. Why does anyone say anything negative about Wagner right now? This guy has not even had 1 year in the majors yet. I have more faith in him then just about anyone when it comes to making it. He might need 2 years in the minors but that would still be incredible.

Claussen scares me. Any prospect of the Yankees scares me. I really wish that we would have gone after prospects from the Dodgers or Mariners instead of the Yankees but that was last year. Hasn't Claussen pitched much better lately????

Here is my main question. Is anyone happy with our farm system now? Is it better than it was last year or even 4 months ago? Are we still at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to the farm? Do we rank in the top 10? 15? I seriously do not know and am just curious because I am seeing names pop up on lists that I haven't seen before. I'm just wondering if people are being surprised by some prospects.

One other question. I have noticed Ryan Snare being talked about as being promising with the Rangers. Did we mess up here? Anyone heard anything about him.

06-30-2004, 05:13 PM
Are people not high on Bong? He's only 23. I sometimes get him confused with Bruce Chen too. ;)

06-30-2004, 05:15 PM
Bong is not a true "prospect" He pitched the entire season with the Braves so that takes away prospect status in my book. That is the reason he doesnt get ranked on any prospect lists.

06-30-2004, 06:20 PM
top ten
(notice pitching is a little thin)

1. Alan Knicely -this guy has pop if they can find a position
2. Pat Pacillo
3. Adam Hyzdu
4. Wade Rowdon
5. Dallas Williams
6. Rob Pugmire
7. Eddie Priest
8. Matt Belisle
9. Jamie Dismuke
10. Scott Bryant

06-30-2004, 06:32 PM
Why has Smitherman dropped so far? Is it his age or is he just stinking it up this year? Or a combination of age and performance?

06-30-2004, 06:48 PM
Open question - If WMP is still considered a prospect. Would he be #1 on this list?
i'm gonna modify that question...if WMP was still considered a prospect, would he be in the top 20 in the country?

06-30-2004, 07:24 PM
Two notes. First, I am absolutely no expert here. Just going on what I read and hear and my impeccably poor intuition.

Second, I consider prospects to be the players who are going to shape the ballclub's future who haven't logged a lot of PA's or IP's at the major league level (more than required to lose official rookie status). To me, prospects are guys you are still projecting about whether or not they will impact the major club in a significant way. We know Dunn and Kearns have and will. Wagner and WMP and FeLo, though are still unknowns.

Anyway, here are my best guesses:

1. Wagner (most sure shot to impact and has a high ceiling to boot)
2. Moseley (most sure shot (IMO) to make a major league rotation, though his ceiling is not as high as others on the list)
3. Encarnacion (high ceiling, all the tools, etc., but no more dominant in AA than Moseley and Moseley has proven himself in AAA as well)
4. WMP (highest ceiling, but can't hit righties or curveballs, so I am still very concerned (not to mention the D, though D is sometimes overrated IMO))
5. Pauly (sounds too good to keep out of the Top 5)
6. Gardner (see Pauly, but substitute "Top 6" for "Top 5")
7. Claussen (just worries me too much to put higher, and I think several in lower levels may have a better chance at developing into an ace)
8. Votto (like the eye and the age)
9. Nelson (saw him pitch a pretty good game for the Bats, and I am willing to keep him in the Top 10 pending his AA performance, which is where he should have been in the first place (with Moseley in Louisville and looking at a September or earlier call-up))
10. I am copping out on No. 10 with Coffey, Smitherman (don't laugh, he is starting to hit), Blanco (though I am still not sold here), Booker (I am very intrigued despite his age), and both Sardinha and Corky (who will be the Reds duo soon) all bunched together.

I do not believe in the middle infield prospects at all. Maybe Ronda. But not Olmedo, FeLo, Bergolla, etc. Again, just my poor intuition, at least on Bergolla. I have seen Olmedo and FeLo and I am not sold at all.

I think the pitching picture is pretty good myself. Claussen, Nelson, Moseley, Pauly and Gardner (I am leaving Bong out who I think should be a bullpen lefty and I don't think Belisle will make it) look like they can turn out 2 solid guys for the rotation at a minimum over the next 3 years. That is not bad, and I can't remember the last time this seemed so possible. There could be three from the group (my best guesses are Moseley, Claussen and Pauly). I also think the injured masses and the really young guys will add another in the next five years or so (out the group of Gruler, Howington, Aramboles, Pelland, Bailey, Medlock and others).

Projecting this over the next five years, the farm could realistically produce 3 or 4 players for the rotation to go along with Acevedo and Harang along with the castaway free agent or two that the Reds sign. That is better than we have had over the last three years or so, I think. I am not sure there is a legit #1 or #2 that will emerge, but three legit #3's plus a couple of #4's would be an upgrade IMO.

Lance McAlister
06-30-2004, 08:17 PM
Ahhhhhhhhh, you might want to include Catcher Miguel Perez. The Reds consider him in their top 2 prospects.

06-30-2004, 08:46 PM
Miguel Perez? I'm not sure why the Reds would consider him higher than an Encarnacion, Moseley, or Votto. Or even in the top 10 for that matter.

He's not progressed all that quickly through they system. In 534 minor league ABs coming into this season, he's had only 15 EBH between rookie ball and Single A. The one time they did promote him, he pretty much fell flat on his face in Low A ball at Dayton, with an OPS of .445. In those same 534 ABs, he's only walked 36 times. So, he's not a guy who gets on base a great deal and he has no power.

So far this year, at Dayton again, he's stinking up the joint as well.

Why would anyone consider him a prospect at all, let alone a top one?

06-30-2004, 09:17 PM
Lance, is their anyway you could get someone like Tim Naering or the like, to give a rundown on who their top 10-15 prospects are?

06-30-2004, 09:43 PM
Lance, is their anyway you could get someone like Tim Naering or the like, to give a rundown on who their top 10-15 prospects are?

I doubt you could get a straight list, probably just BS like he said why Moseley was still in AA.

Lance McAlister
06-30-2004, 09:49 PM
I put in a call to Tim over the weekend. Hope to get him this week or next.

As for MWM.........you might ask around baseball.

06-30-2004, 10:02 PM
As for MWM.........you might ask around baseball.

For what it's worth, Baseball America had Perez rated 11th in the Reds' system pre-season.

Going 307/262 so far this year isn't going to make him go higher.

06-30-2004, 10:05 PM
keep hyping Perez, Lance

when we deal him we won't be losing anything

06-30-2004, 11:53 PM
Little suprised that Luke Hudson doesnt get any mentions (not for the prospect list, but in general). I see as a starter he has his ERA down to 4 with a great K/9 rate. If he could cut down on his walks, I think he could really turn into a productive ML level. I see him eventually as a middle reliever, forming a great power combo with Booker.

06-30-2004, 11:56 PM
Hudson isn't a prospect.

07-01-2004, 12:01 AM
Hudson isn't a prospect.

I realize that, and neither is Booker. Im sorry I went a little off subject, but if Booker gets mentions on this list, then the fact remains I'm a little suprised Hudson didnt/doesnt.

07-01-2004, 12:12 AM
I realize that, and neither is Booker. Im sorry I went a little off subject, but if Booker gets mentions on this list, then the fact remains I'm a little suprised Hudson didnt/doesnt.

No prob, Hudson is coming off Labrum, so I don't hold much hope, Booker, he is Aramboles Jr.

New Fever
07-01-2004, 02:29 AM
Who do you guys think will be in baseball america's top 100 prospects?

I think Ede E., is for sure top 25. Gardner, maybe top 50. Wagner, if he is still eligible will be top 50. Blanco, maybe top 100. Pauly, small chance. Homer maybe at the low end, but probably not until next year. Moseley, is very underrated he shoud at least be considered. After that nobody but Gruler even gets a mention.

07-01-2004, 08:56 AM
Here is what you do for Claussen. You send him a video of Glavine and if he has any control at all he will be just fine. Everyone wants Claussen to get back to 93-95 mph but I love the way lefties can take a little off their pitches and get the big outs. So if Claussen is throwing 88-91 that is fine with me as long as he has a change-up and a slower change-up, a curveball and a slower curveball. Claussen has better stuff than alot of pitchers but if he learns to take a little of his pitches instead of trying to blow the ball by people I think he could be very fine pitcher in the bigs.

07-01-2004, 09:13 AM
Homer Bailey doesn't make anyone's top ten list? or one guy's top 20?

07-01-2004, 09:16 AM
Homer isn't signed yet so I would say no too.

07-01-2004, 09:18 AM
Homer Bailey doesn't make anyone's top ten list? or one guy's top 20?Not until he's signed and has done something worthy of making the top 10. Hype alone shouldn't put him there (see: Howington, Ty and Grueler, Chris).

07-01-2004, 09:54 AM
Hype alone shouldn't put him there.

hype alone is all that a lot of these guys have going for them

1. Homer Bailey
2. EdE
3. WMP. K's too much.
4. Pauley
4. Gardner
6. Felipe Lopez
7. Wagner
8. Claussen. Bullpen
9. Moseley
10. Votto
11. Todd Coffey
12. Jung Bong
13. Tyler Pelland.
14. Corky Miller
15. Bubba Nelson
16. Kevin Howard. Can he defend that position?
17. BJ Szymanski
18. Jesus Sanchez
19. Romano. But only if they play him at second and third too
20. Reith. K rate
21. Medlock. Bullpen
22. Belisle
23. Chris Denorfio. But not if they won't challenge him
24. Blanco. Deal him
25. Steve Kelly
26. Phil Dumatrait, it was "just" a TJ surgery
27. Sardinha.
28. Kenny Kelly
29. Smitherman
30. Dickerson
31. Segovia. Lefty
32. Gilman. "just" a TJ surgery

07-01-2004, 10:12 AM
i think smitherman needs to be in the Top 10. I know he was rated 7th by Baseball America.

07-01-2004, 10:16 AM
6. Felipe Lopez

#6 on your list? I gotta hear the reasoning for this.

IMO, Felipe is not much different from Larson. They can both shine up real nice down at AAA where the pitching and pressure are not as good. As soon as they hit the stadium with the lights and the pressure, they look completely overwhelmed. What is it you see in Felipe that leads you to believe that he will come around?

Or, are you devaluing the prospects behind him?

07-01-2004, 10:18 AM
i think smitherman needs to be in the Top 10. I know he was rated 7th by Baseball America.

highly rated due primarily to positive inertia and consistency. Now he's showing negative inertia and inconsistency. Also bad is the fact that at his age, he needs ML time and won't get it.

07-01-2004, 10:34 AM
IMO, Felipe is not much different from Larson. They can both shine up real nice down at AAA where the pitching and pressure are not as good. As soon as they hit the stadium with the lights and the pressure, they look completely overwhelmed. What is it you see in Felipe that leads you to believe that he will come around?

Or, are you devaluing the prospects behind him?

yes on the latter

I think that you have a great point on the Larson comparisons. And FL has another problem-- Miley likes Larson, whereas Miley's not in FL's corner.

On the plus side, he's very young, he plays an impact position, he's gotten ML atbats at a young age, he worked hard to come back quickly from a nasty injury, and he was better in his second go-around. He's boom or bust, like a pitcher and not like most young hitters. So he's ranked within a bunch of the pitchers.

I forgot Olmedo. He's Lopez-lite.

07-01-2004, 11:28 AM
I think Lopez is very much different then Larson.
1. Felipe has the defensive tools (range and arm) to make an impact if he can ever work on his sloppy footwork and lack of focus (maturity).
2. Felipe has hit at the AA level at age 22 (Toronto) Larson didnt show signs of life untill he was 25.
3. Felipe has shown the ability at times to hit all pitches something Larson has never done. Now Felipe is not consistant hitting ANY pitch but he can adjust to a breaking ball.
4. Felipe is ONLY 24 lets cut him a little slack.

07-01-2004, 11:49 AM
Maybe I should preface it to say that *right now* Lopez and Larson look very similar. Whereas at Louisville, both seemed to have the ability to judge the strikezone, that is not so at the ML level. Neither have a defined strikezone in the majors.

Lopez is 24 and *could* adjust, but at this point, he's had more ML experience than Brandon (702 ABs to 259) and shown little improvement (649 Career OPS, 666 OPS this year).

07-01-2004, 12:23 PM
I think that you have a great point on the Larson comparisons. And FL has another problem-- Miley likes Larson, whereas Miley's not in FL's corner. Does Miley like Larson, or does Miley just follow DanO's orders?