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WVRed
11-01-2004, 01:30 PM
Figured it might be a good idea to get this started a day early, and keep the board less cluttered.:)

Election Websites(polls and the like)

Electoral-vote.com(electoral map of projected polls) (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

RealClear Politics=good website for all the new polls, including national and battleground states (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html)

Electoral Vote Calculator (http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ev/)

Fire away...

GIK
11-01-2004, 01:38 PM
Well, if we're doing this a day early...here's Slate's election scorecard:

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108751/

Currently Bush is up 286-252

WVRed
11-01-2004, 01:47 PM
thanks for the sticky:).

GIK
11-01-2004, 03:03 PM
Slate's poll is now tied at 269:


Analysis Nov. 1, 2:45 p.m. ET: You'd think that since polls are published daily, analysis based on them would last more than a couple of hours. But you'd be wrong. Last night we got a new poll and moved Florida to Kerry. This morning we got another new poll and moved it back to Bush. Guess what? We've got a third poll now, and—oh, what's the point of explaining any more. The balance of evidence in Florida is back on Kerry's side. But fear not, Republicans. Another new poll has arrived in Wisconsin, tilting the balance of evidence in that state by the teensy-weensiest margin to Bush. The result, appropriately, is a tie, which sends the election to the House, where Bush wins. And if you don't like that projection, just wait an hour.

:MandJ:

WVRed
11-01-2004, 04:09 PM
Some of the newest battleground polls out look good for Bush in Ohio, and suprisingly Pennsylvania.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

Fox News and Zogby have Bush up by 3 and 4 respectively in Ohio, but CNN/USA Today/Gallup(one poll) has Kerry up by 4. A UC poll has Bush up by 0.9 as well.

Pennsylvania has three new polls, with CNN/USA/Gallop having Bush up by 4, Zogby with Kerry up by 5, and Quinnipac with a tie.

Fox News has Bush up by 3 in Wisconsin, while Zogby has Kerry by 7. CNN/USA/Gallop had Bush up by 8 there yesterday.

More contradicting by Zogby and Fox News with Iowa, where Kerry is up by 6 and Bush is up by 4 respectively.

Minnesota is looking like a lock for Kerry, with Zogby and CNN/USA/Gallop having Kerry up by 2 and 8 respectively.

Michigans a lock for Kerry

Zogby is tied in New Mexico

Colorado is leaning Bush according to Zogby yesterday.

jmcclain19
11-01-2004, 04:43 PM
Any polls that have the difference in the margin of error aren't worth their salt, this late in the game, considering no one can guess what the turnout will be.

Rojo
11-01-2004, 05:13 PM
considering no one can guess what the turnout will be.

I'm going to guess the turnout will be very high -- and I don't think I'm going out on a limb on this one.

This is why Kerry wins.

WVRed
11-01-2004, 05:26 PM
I'm going to guess the turnout will be very high -- and I don't think I'm going out on a limb on this one.

This is why Kerry wins.

One of the projections I read had the turnout being the same(or less) than 2000. If thats the case, better luck in 2008:).

Im thinking Kerry is relying on the college vote(18-23) for voter turnout. There is really no legitimate way you can predict how that vote will turn out.

jmcclain19
11-01-2004, 06:01 PM
I've heard that the voter turnout would be high for the last several elections.

I don't see how this is any different. Expect all kinds of coverage showing massive lines and people "geared up" to vote then in a few weeks when the numbers are final it'll be about the same as it has been for the last 20 or so years.

letsgojunior
11-01-2004, 06:04 PM
I heard on the news the other day in NC that over 1,000,000 people had voted early, and that in years past it had been just 300,000. I was barely listening to the television, but I'm pretty sure that those are the numbers I heard. Regardless, I do remember hearing that it was much higher than it had been in years past.

With the fiasco of the last election, as well as all the numerous voter drives I've seen, I'd be quite shocked if the turnout in this year's election wasn't much, much higher than it has been in past elections.

jmcclain19
11-01-2004, 06:07 PM
I heard on the news the other day in NC that over 1,000,000 people had voted early, and that in years past it had been just 300,000. I was barely listening to the television, but I'm pretty sure that those are the numbers I heard. Regardless, I do remember hearing that it was much higher than it had been in years past.

With the fiasco of the last election, as well as all the numerous voter drives I've seen, I'd be quite shocked if the turnout in this year's election wasn't much, much higher than it has been in past elections.

That just follows the trend of early voting.

Over the last decade, early voting has been made more accessable nationwide and has grown exponentially because of it.



I wouldn't put too much stock in it. These are the same stories that are recycled from the week before the 2000 election day.

MWM
11-01-2004, 06:31 PM
It's all about Ohio and Florida.

I also think turnout will wind up extremely high. That's a good thing (insert hypocrite joke below).

paintmered
11-01-2004, 06:35 PM
I have a question - if on the off chance a ruling has to go to the U.S. Supreme Court while Rhenquist is out on medical leave, does the court wait until he is healthy enough to hear the case? Do they continue with the remaining Justices? Is there a temporary judge from a lower court that sits in his absense? Who takes the role of Chief Justice?

:confused:

jmcclain19
11-01-2004, 06:48 PM
I have a question - if on the off chance a ruling has to go to the U.S. Supreme Court while Rhenquist is out on medical leave, does the court wait until he is healthy enough to hear the case? Do they continue with the remaining Justices? Is there a temporary judge from a lower court that sits in his absense? Who takes the role of Chief Justice?

:confused:
The Senior Most Justice, in this case Justice Stevens, presides in the event the Chief is gone. That's what happened today.

I would bet that Rehnquist, being the long time GOP activist before his judicial career, would crawl thru broken glass to make sure he was there to hear oral arguments for a Bush v. Kerry case.

As long as he's there during Oral, he can vote on the case, as he can obviously just take the case work home and work on it with his staff from there.

RedsBaron
11-01-2004, 07:08 PM
I have a question - if on the off chance a ruling has to go to the U.S. Supreme Court while Rhenquist is out on medical leave, does the court wait until he is healthy enough to hear the case? Do they continue with the remaining Justices? Is there a temporary judge from a lower court that sits in his absense? Who takes the role of Chief Justice?

:confused:
If one justice is unavailable or recuses himself/herself, the remaining justices decide the matter. No temporary judge from a lower court can serve. I can recall that the Supreme Court's ruling during the Watergate scandal that Nixon had to turn over the tapes was an 8-0 decision. I believe that Rehnquist had recused himself from that case.
Of course, if only eight justices are deciding the matter, that would give us the possibility of a 4-4 tie.

paintmered
11-01-2004, 08:13 PM
Of course, if only eight justices are deciding the matter, that would give us the possibility of a 4-4 tie.


Not to say any of this is actually going to happen, just hypothetically speaking - But what then? Has this ever happened (a split decision)?

Phoenix
11-01-2004, 09:09 PM
I sure hope we aren't watching lawyers again when this thing is over. And I'm going to be glad when its over. This election season seems to going on forever...

Rojo
11-01-2004, 10:05 PM
I don't care how long it takes. I just want a legitimate government.

MWM
11-01-2004, 10:11 PM
A very small part of me wants to see Bush win the popular vote and Kerry win the electoral vote. One, because it might get both sides to consider a straight popular vote. Secondly, I think it will be fun just to see the reactions from both sides to see if they do a complete 180 from what they said in 2000.

Rojo
11-01-2004, 10:16 PM
A very small part of me wants to see Bush win the popular vote and Kerry win the electoral vote. One, because it might get both sides to consider a straight popular vote.

That's a good point. And I think this might happen. I predict a wide but shallow Kerry victory (OH, FL, WI, IA, NH) because of GOTV.

Redsfaithful
11-01-2004, 10:19 PM
A very small part of me wants to see Bush win the popular vote and Kerry win the electoral vote. One, because it might get both sides to consider a straight popular vote. Secondly, I think it will be fun just to see the reactions from both sides to see if they do a complete 180 from what they said in 2000.

I'd still be against the electoral college. I believe more and more that it hurts America, and I do think 2000 will have to happen again, and probably to Republicans this time, for people to start seriously wanting it changed.

D-Man
11-01-2004, 10:53 PM
Here are my thoughts on this election:

*My educated guess: this election won't be resolved tomorrow night.

*This election is going to come down to four states, really: Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Kerry wins if he gets two of the four (as long as he gets one of Ohio or Florida). Bush needs both Ohio and Florida or a combination of three out of the four to win.

*The polls from the other "swing" states--NH, MN, MO, CO, NV, NM, AR, HI, NJ, MI, and PA--seem to be firmly entrenched on one side or the other. I would be fairly surprised if any of them swing to the other side.

*Yesterday's "The Note" suggests that the early returns on the Iowa absentee ballots are heavily in favor of Kerry, whereas the likely turnout at the polls should be split about 50/50.

Here is the link to the article:
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041031/NEWS09/41030009&SearchID=73188680908280

"Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters. Among the 73 percent who said they definitely would vote on Tuesday, Kerry and Bush are tied."

*The U.S. Appellate court ruling today was a big win for Kerry. Essentially, it prevents lawyers (or anyone else) from preventing and challenging others from voting at the polls.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/special_packages/election2004/10072743.htm?1c

Not that anybody cares, but my own $0.02 is that this move by the Ohio Republican party smells of modern-day, Jim Crow-racism, akin to poll taxes.

*Social scientists say that it is rare for incumbents to get more than they get in tracking polls in the week leading up the election (i.e., the polls seem to be an "upper bound" for the incumbents for lots of reasons, such as the public's familiarity with the person and knowing what he/she stands for). If that is true, then Bush should be worried. His "upper bound" in Ohio is ~48%, it is 47% in Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, et al.

*I'm really skeptical of CNN/Gallup polls or any of the partisan polls. One lesson in how they *lie* with statistics: the sample that Gallup uses has consistenly been 5% to the right of actual 2000 exit polls. In other words, they are making a sampling error by not recalibrating the data to match historical trends, then repackaging it as concrete evidence. This is the same trick that partisan pollsters from both sides use to boost people's impressions of their candidate's chances.

RedsBaron
11-02-2004, 06:13 AM
Not to say any of this is actually going to happen, just hypothetically speaking - But what then? Has this ever happened (a split decision)?
A 4-4 decision would result in the lower court's judgment remaining in place.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 08:21 AM
I heard on the news this morning that they are expecting a 120 M turnout this year, versus a 106 M turnout in 2000.

bucksfan
11-02-2004, 08:39 AM
Tell ya what, if the lines at my poll are any indicator (and I'm not saying they really are) then the turnout will be higher.

KittyDuran
11-02-2004, 08:41 AM
I voted! :gac:

First time I had to wait since I started going in the morning before work. Had to drive around the school parking lot to find a space and ended up parking on the side. Hit the door at 6:45am - and was the 8th in line to sign in - there was a line of 10 waiting to vote at the machines (and already 2 were out of order???!!!). It went pretty quick tho' and I was out on the road by 7am. Other people that I work with said that the lines were incredible.

Reds Fanatic
11-02-2004, 08:49 AM
I just got back from voting and the lines are the longest I have ever seen for an election. It took us 10 minutes to find a place to park and another 45 minutes to wait to vote. So if you can vote early today I would recommend it because the lines after work tonight may be very long.

zombie-a-go-go
11-02-2004, 08:52 AM
I got to the polls half an hour before they opened and was, like, the thirtieth person in line - when I got out of there at seven there must have been, and I'm not kidding here, about four-hundred people waiting in line, and more coming in.

And I saw a lot of people I never would have pegged to be voters - yeah, because of stereotypes - all these kids with their sags and bandannas and football jerseys and chains, none of whom were probably old enough to drink. It kinda reaffirmed my faith in this city's youth - I overheard some of them talking about passing the school levy that's on the ballot here in Hamilton County. :thumbup:

Unassisted
11-02-2004, 08:58 AM
Here's an auto-updating map of states as they are declared for each candidate. It won't get interesting until the polls start closing.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/

Feel free to add it to the original post, WV. It'll be a nice thing for folks to keep open on their browser during the evening.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 09:06 AM
The Giant Wafflehead is at the Waffle House close to Polaris.

Waffle here waffle there waffle in your hair giant wafflehead wobbling toward you. Waffle near waffle far waffle in your car, now America must brace for Project Longface:).

traderumor
11-02-2004, 09:14 AM
Cast my votes, had to wait in line about 15 minutes, which would be reduced to five if the poll workers weren't slower than Sean Casey trying to go first to third. My goodness, those folks move slow, and I have voted in three different polling places over my days (not this year, don't call Michael Moore just yet ;) ), the same in each one.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 09:23 AM
I walked across the street and voted(guess who?) around 7:45 AM. The people running the booth were saying they were turning people away at 6 AM because the polls didnt open until 6:30 and they didnt expect it to die down.

Others were saying that this could be the highest voter turnout in PKB.

Danny Serafini
11-02-2004, 09:37 AM
After looking at all the polls and doing my research, I officially predict that Dewey will defeat Truman. Oh, wait, nevermind. This could be another ugly one, though. A guy I work with said a friend of his was first in line at his polling place this morning, had ticket stub #0001. Went inside to vote and the machine wouldn't take his ticket. First one of the day and it's already acting up. They put his ticket off to the side and said his vote would be put in later. Just doesn't make you feel confident to hear problems right off the bat.

TeamCasey
11-02-2004, 09:40 AM
Cast my votes, had to wait in line about 15 minutes, which would be reduced to five if the poll workers weren't slower than Sean Casey trying to go first to third.

Hey now! I can forgive a lot of things ....... but them's fighting words, Mister !!!!! :gunsfirin :)

WVRed
11-02-2004, 09:54 AM
Votes planted in Philadelphia per Drudge Report

Before voting even began in Philladelphia -- poll watchers found nearly 2000 votes already planted on machines scattered throughout the city... One incident occurred at the SALVATION ARMY, 2601 N. 11th St., Philadelphia, Pa: Ward 37, division 8... pollwatchers uncovered 4 machines with planted votes; one with over 200 and one with nearly 500... A second location, 1901 W. Girard Ave., Berean Institute, Philadelphia, Pa, had 300+ votes already on 2 machines at start of day... INCIDENT: 292 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 7/7: ADDRESS: 122 W. Erie Ave., Roberto Clemente School, Philadelphia, Pa.; INCIDENT: 456 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 12/3; ADDRESS: 5657 Chew Ave., storefront, Philadelphia, Pa... A gun was purposely made visible to scare poll watchers at Ward 30, division 11, at 905 S. 20th St., Grand Court. Police were called and surrounded the location... Developing...

RedFanAlways1966
11-02-2004, 09:54 AM
One thing I noticed as I stood in line at 6:45 this morning... it is a weird smell. The mixture of cologne, perfume, coffee, orange juice, rain, wet leaves, senior citizen aromas (Ben-Gay?) early in the morning. Just a weird smell.

If it was not for judges, there would have been next to nothing to vote for in my area. The President, one Senate seat, my local school's request for a levy, OH issue #1 (marriage thing) and a few unchallenged local/state offices. It took me all of two minutes to complete my ballot. Then another 15 seconds to make sure there were no hanging chads!

GAC
11-02-2004, 10:08 AM
A state election board official just reported in Florida that they have found "instances" where people have been caught voting numerous times (at one place, then going to another, then another). They wouldn't give details though, but just said they were confirmed "instances".

They then issued a warning that if people are caught doing so they will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

Danny Serafini
11-02-2004, 10:25 AM
Wow, there's a Roberto Clemente school in Philadelphia? You'd think they'd name it after Steve Carlton or something. ;)

More voting fun here, another co-worker came in with a fun story. She went to vote in a building that housed multiple precincts. Unfortunately, no one was there to handle voting for the other precinct. They all had to vote in her precinct with provisional ballots and have them sorted out later, which clogged up the lines for both precincts. This is getting uglier.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 10:34 AM
Wow, there's a Roberto Clemente school in Philadelphia? You'd think they'd name it after Steve Carlton or something. ;)

Bet some City Councilman who was a Pirates fan had a sick sense of humor :)

westofyou
11-02-2004, 10:37 AM
Bet some City Councilman who was a Pirates fan had a sick sense of humor :)

Considering who the first popular Black Player was for Philadelphia and you might get a hint why the HS is called Roberto Clemente High.

Spring~Fields
11-02-2004, 10:40 AM
A state election board official just reported in Florida that they have found "instances" where people have been caught voting numerous times (at one place, then going to another, then another). They wouldn't give details though, but just said they were confirmed "instances".

They then issued a warning that if people are caught doing so they will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

The following was in the news before election day.


Oct. 21: Tens of thousands of Florida voters may be illegally registered to vote in two states, and more than 1,600 may have cast ballots in Florida and one of two other states in recent elections, the Orlando Sentinel reported in Friday's editions. The Sentinel examination of voting records from Florida, Georgia and North Carolina found more than 68,000 cases in which voters with the same names and dates of birth were registered in two states.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 10:45 AM
I just voted - lines were long and lots of college aged students (always good to see that) :thumbup:

traderumor
11-02-2004, 10:47 AM
The following was in the news before election day.


Oct. 21: Tens of thousands of Florida voters may be illegally registered to vote in two states, and more than 1,600 may have cast ballots in Florida and one of two other states in recent elections, the Orlando Sentinel reported in Friday's editions. The Sentinel examination of voting records from Florida, Georgia and North Carolina found more than 68,000 cases in which voters with the same names and dates of birth were registered in two states.There's nothing illegal about being registered to vote in two states, is there? If you move from Ohio to Indiana, register in Indiana and forget that you were registered in Ohio, you aren't violating law, are you? Now, if you actually vote in both states...

traderumor
11-02-2004, 10:51 AM
Considering who the first popular Black Player was for Philadelphia and you might get a hint why the HS is called Roberto Clemente High.Maybe they couldn't decide whether to name it Richie or Dick Allen High, so they settled for someone with one known first name :)

GIK
11-02-2004, 11:30 AM
Voted early this morning and from what I saw the "kids" (my age, mid-20s) are coming out. No matter who they're/we're voting for, I like it. :thumbup:

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 11:32 AM
Vote early and vote often, as the saying goes

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 11:35 AM
There is a sick, twisted side to me that wants this election to be Popular Vote for Bush while the electoral college goes to Kerry, just so the Republicans can feel the anguish the Democrats did four years ago and the Democrats can go thru four years of hearing that their President wasn't "elected".

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:36 AM
Voted early this morning and from what I saw the "kids" (my age, mid-20s) are coming out. No matter who they're/we're voting for, I like it. :thumbup:

If you're in Ann Arbor, I don't think there's any question as to WHO they're voting for. Not that it's a bad thing. Over the past week on campus and around town and at the game, this place is overflowing with Kerry/Edwards sticker, buttons, shirts, signs, etc.... I can count on one hand the number of any type of Bush/Cheney stuff.

Also, prop 2 is a hot issue here in Ann Arbor. It's not getting much support. We have a system you can go through to send emails out to all B-School students. It's not supposed to be used for anything non-school related. Yesterday we got a very detailed message someone sent out using this system telling us all why prop 2 is such a bad thing and why we should vote NO. It's the first time I've ever got an email like this through the school's syste. My guess is the person who sent it out got a talking to.

TeamCasey
11-02-2004, 11:40 AM
There is a sick, twisted side to me that wants this election to be Popular Vote for Bush while the electoral college goes to Kerry, just so the Republicans can feel the anguish the Democrats did four years ago and the Democrats can go thru four years of hearing that their President wasn't "elected".

That would be righteous! :MandJ:

Spring~Fields
11-02-2004, 11:40 AM
There's nothing illegal about being registered to vote in two states, is there? If you move from Ohio to Indiana, register in Indiana and forget that you were registered in Ohio, you aren't violating law, are you? Now, if you actually vote in both states...

I can't confirm the story but, I was told that people for example were registered in Ohio, and in Florida, as they have dual residences, they would cast an absentee ballot in Ohio and actually vote in Florida. Signs were posted at our polling place, that read that voting more than once was illegal, 4th degree felony.

Surely your Indiana/Ohio example would not be illegal if they vote in one place.

Someone that is more aquainted with the laws would be better to answer your questions.

pedro
11-02-2004, 11:41 AM
i'm so glad that we get out ballots here by mail early. i turned mine in last saturday.

looks like the gay marriage ban proposotion might pass here in oregon.

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:42 AM
There is a sick, twisted side to me that wants this election to be Popular Vote for Bush while the electoral college goes to Kerry, just so the Republicans can feel the anguish the Democrats did four years ago and the Democrats can go thru four years of hearing that their President wasn't "elected".

I made the same comment on a different thread yesterday. :gac:

TeamCasey
11-02-2004, 11:42 AM
My neighborhood has mostly Bush signs in their lawns. I need to find a better neighborhood. :mhcky21:

GIK
11-02-2004, 11:46 AM
If you're in Ann Arbor, I don't think there's any question as to WHO they're voting for. Not that it's a bad thing. Over the past week on campus and around town and at the game, this place is overflowing with Kerry/Edwards sticker, buttons, shirts, signs, etc.... I can count on one hand the number of any type of Bush/Cheney stuff.

Also, prop 2 is a hot issue here in Ann Arbor. It's not getting much support. We have a system you can go through to send emails out to all B-School students. It's not supposed to be used for anything non-school related. Yesterday we got a very detailed message someone sent out using this system telling us all why prop 2 is such a bad thing and why we should vote NO. It's the first time I've ever got an email like this through the school's syste. My guess is the person who sent it out got a talking to.

I'm in Dearborn, where it's fairly split (depends which street you're driving down), but I can only imagine the scene in Ann Arbor...not that that's a bad thing. ;)

Puffy
11-02-2004, 11:48 AM
I just voted - lines were long and lots of college aged students (always good to see that) :thumbup:

You're right - thats awesome to see. People can make fun of the WWE, MTV and P. Diddy, but if they are getting young adults to vote then I say good for them!! :thumbup:

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 11:49 AM
I made the same comment on a different thread yesterday. :gac:
How does it go MWM? Great minds think alike :thumbup:

WVRed
11-02-2004, 11:50 AM
You're right - thats awesome to see. People can make fun of the WWE, MTV and P. Diddy, but if they are getting young adults to vote then I say good for them!! :thumbup:

Depends on how the weather is;).

pedro
11-02-2004, 11:54 AM
Depends on how the weather is;).

that's the main reason i'm happy i voted already, it's pouring buckets here.

zombie-a-go-go
11-02-2004, 11:56 AM
http://images.somethingawful.com/inserts/articlepics/photoshop/04-02-04-campaigns/DrMindbender.jpg

WVRed
11-02-2004, 12:00 PM
that's the main reason i'm happy i voted already, it's pouring buckets here.

I have a feeling the weather will play a role in Ohio. I dont see many kids standing out in the rain for P-Diddy:)

Red Leader
11-02-2004, 12:02 PM
If Kerry ends up winning this thing, I think I would rather take a bullet to the head to protect him than to have John Edwards take over.

zombie-a-go-go
11-02-2004, 12:04 PM
http://images.somethingawful.com/inserts/articlepics/photoshop/04-09-04-campaigns/Redrazors.jpg

pedro
11-02-2004, 12:05 PM
http://www.trojanhorseantiques.com/President2000Barbie.jpg

MWM
11-02-2004, 12:08 PM
If Kerry ends up winning this thing, I think I would rather take a bullet to the head to protect him than to have John Edwards take over.

OK. That's twice you've made a comment like this about John Edwards. What is it you don't like about the guy. I've always liked him. What am I missing?

Raisor
11-02-2004, 12:09 PM
Just got home from voting.

Voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney and Johnny Isakson for Zell Miller's open Senate seat.

I am now going to drink heavily for the rest of the day.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 12:11 PM
It's funny that you post that pedro, have you ever seen the "White House Project?"

It's an interesting group, dedicated to getting a woman elected to positions of power, specifically the White House, no matter what her stripes are.

http://www.thewhitehouseproject.org/

Raisor
11-02-2004, 12:12 PM
OK. That's twice you've made a comment like this about John Edwards. What is it you don't like about the guy. I've always liked him. What am I missing?

I'm not Red Leader, but I'll give my opinion anyway. In no way do I feel that Edwards is near ready to run the country if it becomes neccessary.

GAC
11-02-2004, 12:13 PM
Ok. As the day progresses, I now remember why I simply hate all day election coverage. :lol:

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Having to listen to pundits on both side make predictions, quote polls, while still making "hits" on the other side, thinking they are gonna convince anyone at this late stage, is simply ridiculous.

I've been bouncing around from Fox to CNN to MSNBC.

And I'm tired of hearing the media trying to create (or feed) the frenzy (like it's OJ's trial) of.... will this election end today?.... will there be massive voter fraud? And then they jump on these "breaking news" stories of possible fraud or irregularities around the country.

But listening to Geraldine Ferraro and Tom Daschle already on the airwaves screaming of Republican fraud and disenfranchisement has made me turn the TV off, and take a nap, until tonight.

Wake me up when Nader wins! :mhcky21:

westofyou
11-02-2004, 12:13 PM
Barbie didn't make the ballot here in Oregon.

The dreaded Lesbian Lobby is mighty powerful here in Mullet County.

KYRedsFan
11-02-2004, 12:19 PM
You're right - thats awesome to see. People can make fun of the WWE, MTV and P. Diddy, but if they are getting young adults to vote then I say good for them!! :thumbup:


Yeah, get them to vote right after pummeling them with pro-Kerry speakers and the like.

VOTE (Kerry) or DIE

pedro
11-02-2004, 12:19 PM
It's funny that you post that pedro, have you ever seen the "White House Project?"

It's an interesting group, dedicated to getting a woman elected to positions of power, specifically the White House, no matter what her stripes are.

http://www.thewhitehouseproject.org/

that's pretty cool. politics is too dominated by men.

pedro
11-02-2004, 12:22 PM
Yeah, get them to vote right after pummeling them with pro-Kerry speakers and the like.

VOTE (Kerry) or DIE

i think you got that wrong. isn't bush's slogan

VOTE (Kerry) AND DIE

????? ;)

Puffy
11-02-2004, 12:27 PM
Yeah, get them to vote right after pummeling them with pro-Kerry speakers and the like.

VOTE (Kerry) or DIE

Dude, whatever. If young adults are voting now (and I don't care who they vote for now cause their views very well might change once they get older, with families and jobs), but if young people are voting now then it increases the chances of them staying politically active throughout their lives. I, for one, think that is awesome. So if it takes the WWE registering their fans, or MTV saying Rock the Vote, or P. Diddy saying Vote or Die, and all those people vote for Bush (hypothecially speaking as I am a Kerry supporter) I would still say it rocks for the aforementioned reasons.

traderumor
11-02-2004, 12:29 PM
http://images.somethingawful.com/inserts/articlepics/photoshop/04-09-04-campaigns/Redrazors.jpg

Hey, that's the name of my parent's pekingnese dog, the most annoying dog on this planet, whom I refer to as my little brother since my parents treat the pooch like its their child.

Red Leader
11-02-2004, 12:30 PM
OK. That's twice you've made a comment like this about John Edwards. What is it you don't like about the guy. I've always liked him. What am I missing?

Its a personal thing. I have 15 members of my family that are either doctors or pharmaceutical reps. They are deathly afraid of what he could do to their way of living if he were to take over as President. Personally, he doesn't directly effect my way of living, I just think he is a lier and a snake based on research I have done on him and I do not believe he would make even a good President should he fall into that.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 12:36 PM
If anyone is interested, Justice Stevens just denied the Ohio lawsuit about the use of poll watchers

http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/02nov20040915/www.supremecourtus.gov/opinions/04pdf/04a360.pdf


Although the hour is late and time is short, I have reviewed the District Court opinions and the opinions of the Circuit Judges. That reasonable judges can disagree about the issues is clear enough.

The allegations of abuse made by the plaintiffs are undoubtedly serious—the threat of voter intimidation isnot new to our electoral system—but on the record before me it is impossible to determine with any certainty the ultimate validity of the plaintiffs' claims.

Practical considerations, such as the difficulty of digesting all of the relevant filings and cases, and the challenge of properly reviewing all of the parties' submissions as a full Court in the limited timeframe available, weigh heavily against granting the extraordinary type of relief requested here. Moreover, I have faith that the elected officials and numerous election volunteers on the ground will carry out their responsibilities in a way that will enable qualified voters to cast their ballots.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 12:36 PM
And on a similar note, if anyone is interested, here is a great election Law website, being updated like mad today

http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/

pedro
11-02-2004, 12:40 PM
And on a similar note, if anyone is interested, here is a great election Law website, being updated like mad today

http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/

that's cool. thanks.

KYRedsFan
11-02-2004, 01:01 PM
Dude, whatever. If young adults are voting now (and I don't care who they vote for now cause their views very well might change once they get older, with families and jobs), but if young people are voting now then it increases the chances of them staying politically active throughout their lives. I, for one, think that is awesome. So if it takes the WWE registering their fans, or MTV saying Rock the Vote, or P. Diddy saying Vote or Die, and all those people vote for Bush (hypothecially speaking as I am a Kerry supporter) I would still say it rocks for the aforementioned reasons.

The blatant partisan motivation behind these movements removes any shred of possibility that they're interested in merely improving youth participation. I really do like that it's getting young people involved, that's a good thing. The sick part is that these people throw their rhetoric around as fact under the guise of "voter education." Get real, these artists don't care what turnout is, they just want Bush out, and realized a large segment of easily influenced voters. Repeated ads lying about a draft return, etc. That's not to be admired in my opinion. Dude.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 01:06 PM
Puffy, doesnt this remind you of South Park last week?:).

Puffy
11-02-2004, 01:08 PM
Puffy, doesnt this remind you of South Park last week?:).

:thumbup:

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 01:09 PM
Everyone can rest easy. Guam's votes are in.

http://www.guampdn.com/news/updates/9807.html

Bush wins 17,264 to Kerry's 9,540

KYRedsFan
11-02-2004, 01:10 PM
Turd sandwich in 2004

Puffy
11-02-2004, 01:11 PM
The blatant partisan motivation behind these movements removes any shred of possibility that they're interested in merely improving youth participation. I really do like that it's getting young people involved, that's a good thing. The sick part is that these people throw their rhetoric around as fact under the guise of "voter education." Get real, these artists don't care what turnout is, they just want Bush out, and realized a large segment of easily influenced voters. Repeated ads lying about a draft return, etc. That's not to be admired in my opinion. Dude.


First off, the calling you dude, and the whatever, is just an expression I use, it was not meant to disrespect you.

Secondly, I've said what I wanted so I'm just gonna leave it as I've said twice already - - I'm glad they did this if it increases young voter turnout. It distresses me that we will probably set a record for most voters ever this year and that number will still only represent 50% of the voting age population

Red Leader
11-02-2004, 01:11 PM
Turd sandwich in 2004

Giant ******! :angry:

Danny Serafini
11-02-2004, 01:15 PM
Everyone can rest easy. Guam's votes are in.

http://www.guampdn.com/news/updates/9807.html

Bush wins 17,264 to Kerry's 9,540

Did Guam get an electoral vote and I missed it? I'm just trying to picture Bush or Kerry on a campaign visit there. :D

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 01:23 PM
ABCNews The Note has an interesting breakdown of battleground states and weather reports

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=156238


OHIO (20):

Polls open at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET.

Ballot Watch: Provisional ballots can be cast in the Buckeye State when a voter's name does not appear on the roster or if s/he forgot an ID. These provisional ballots can be cast only in a voter's home precinct. The counting of provisional ballots does not begin for 10 days. The majority of voters cast punch card ballots — 69 of 88 counties. The others use optical scan and electronic voting devices. Recounts are automatically triggered at a difference of one-fourth of 1 percent or less; it is up to the Secretary of State to order a statewide recount.

Vote Watch: (1) Who wins State Issue 1 (the same-sex marriage ban) and by how much — the higher the "yes" vote, the better for Bush; (2) African-American turnout in Cleveland; and (3) the vote and margins in Franklin, Stark, and Montgomery counties.

Weather: In Democratic Cleveland, "Occasional rain. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest. Chance of rain 80 percent." Even worse in Cincinnati, where the Republicans have their eye: "Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph this morning. Becoming northwest this afternoon. Chance of rain 100 percent."

FLORIDA (27):

Florida's panhandle is on Central Time. Across the state, polls will open at 7:00 am ET at the earliest and close at 8:00 pm ET at the latest.

Ballot Watch: Those who vote in the wrong precinct do not have their votes counted at all. Florida uses a mix of optical scan and touch-screen voting machines, but use of the new machines has still not been perfected. In 2002 there were many flaws and some poll workers didn't know how to operate the machines. In accordance with a court order, the machines print a log of all ballots cast as a form of a paper trail. However, there is no way to be completely sure that the log is accurate and that the computer accurately tabulated the votes.

Vote Watch: (1) Bush's margin in North Florida (above 60 percent?); (2) Kerry's in Palm Beach County (high 50s or low 50s?); (3) who wins Tampa and Orlando media markets and by how much; and (4) African-American turnout.

Weather: Democratic Miami is "mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A slight chance of showers." The all-important corridor between Orlando and Tampa I-4 is Florida perfection: 87 degrees, 10 mph wind. But Red Pensacola is "Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 70. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent."

MAINE (4):

Polls open at 6:00 am ET at the earliest and close at 8:00 pm ET.

Ballot watch: Maine has not used punch card or lever voting machines for many years. The state currently uses paper ballots which are hand counted or optically scanned and tabulated by a machine.

Vote watch: Obviously, Bush's effort for a majority in the 2nd Congressional District.

Weather: In "battleground" CD 2: "Partly cloudy this morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain this afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph…Becoming east this afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent."

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4):

Polls open at different times — the earliest at 6:00 am ET. They close at 8:00 pm ET.

Ballot Watch: Roughly 100 towns/municipalities use optical scan voting machines, including all of the heavily populated areas. The rest of New Hampshire voters perform their civic duty by marking an "X" on a paper ballot, which gets counted by hand. No punch card ballot allowed! There are no partisan canvassing boards; "moderators" count votes at the polling places in public view or at a "counting center."

Vote Watch: (1) How the Southern Tier voters who moved from Massachusetts voted; and (2) the margin of the leading candidate's lead in the towns between Manchester and Nashua.

Weather: Um&. It's New Hampshire in November. If they ain't used to it now& "Partly cloudy this morning. Then becoming cloudy. A chance of rain early this afternoon. Rain likely late. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds around 5 mph. Increasing to southeast 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph late this morning and afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent."

PENNSYLVANIA (21):

Polls open at 7:00 am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET.

Ballot Watch: Pennsylvania has not yet taken advantage of HAVA funds to upgrade its voting equipment — election officials didn't believe it would be done in time for the election. As such, the state still uses punch card, optical, lever, and direct recording voting machines. Provisional ballots can be given to those who do not appear on voter registers, or are otherwise deemed ineligible to vote. County officials will determine whether those ballots count within three days of the election.

Vote Watch: (1) How well Bush does among women in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; (2) who wins and by how much in Allentown; (3) how Kerry does in Erie; and (4) African-American turnout.

Weather: The all-important Philadelphia and suburbs is "Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. Southeast winds around 10 mph." The weather in beautiful Central City, PA , where Bush needs big margins, could be rainy: "Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Mainly in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent."

MICHIGAN (17):

Polls open are various times. At their earliest, it's at 6:00 am ET. They close at 9:00 pm ET.

Ballot watch: Michigan's voting is administered locally among (literally) thousands of elections officials, making it the most decentralized system in the country. Some counties use multiple systems, especially in high population areas. There are eight different systems in use statewide. 48 hours is given for recount petitions. Pray none are filed.

Vote Watch: (1) Look at the Michigan AFL-CIO's work — the labor vote  both the contribution and vote share per candidate; and (2) how well Kerry does in Detroit and its suburbs.

Weather: Detroit, Detroit, Detroit: blustery! "Occasional showers, mainly before 9:00 am. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. High around 56. Breezy, with a north northwest wind between 14 and 21 mph."

MINNESOTA (10):

Polls open at 8:00 am ET at the earliest, and all close at 9:00 pm ET.

Ballot Watch: In Minnesota two-thirds of the state use optical scan machines and the rest use paper ballot, most of which are read and counted by scanners. At the push of a button tabulated tallies are printed. Minnesota has no early voting, and no provisional ballots either. The state has same-day registration.

Vote Watch: (1) Will Kerry's margin in the Twin Cities help him overcome deficits in the rural part of the state? (2) Does Bush win by a larger margin in the ring around the Twin Cities than he did in 2000? (3) Can Kerry improve in Olmstead County (Rochester) from what Al Gore got?

Weather: All over the state, like San Francisco in the summer: crisp and beautiful.

NEW MEXICO (5):

Polls open at 9:00 am ET and close at 9:00 pm ET.

Ballot watch: 22 counties (including all of the larger counties) use direct-record electronic voting. (Many use the first generation electronic machines with buttons not touch-screen.) 11 counties (smaller counties for the most part) use optical scan. There were significant voting problems in Bernalillo County in 2000.

Vote watch: The margin by which the leading candidate is winning Bernalillo County and the weather in Little Texas.

Weather: Are you kidding? Sunny!

WISCONSIN (10):

Polls open at 8:00 am ET and close at 9:00 pm ET.

Ballot Watch: The state has a very decentrilized system. Voters can register on Election Day in Wisconsin. Counties with fewer than 5,000 have no rolls. Wisconsin doesn't give special consideration to overseas ballots: they must be in by the close of polls. The state uses optical scan (87 percent), paper (10 percent), lever, and punch card balloting.

Vote Watch: (1) Does Bush overperform his 2000 margin in Brown County?; (2) Kerry's margin in Milwaukee; and (3) who wins the surburbs.

Weather: Kitties and puppies in blue Milwaukee: "Occasional rain before 9:00 am, then a chance for drizzle before ending. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. High near 47. North wind between 14 and 20 mph." Green Bay is mostly cloudy.

IOWA (7):

Polls open at 8:00 am ET and close at 10:00 pm ET.

Ballot watch: Most of Iowa uses optical scan systems. Only seven counties use levers, and one has paper ballots. No punch card ballots are used.

However, there is no statewide voter database and no ID is necessary at the polls — which can set the stage for voter fraud accusations and the casting of more provisional ballots. But the state has a good reputation for clean elections, even with all those pre-election kerfluffles.

Vote watch: (1) Who wins the I-80 corridor; (2) can Bush get 45 to 50 percent of the vote in Dubuque County? (3) Does Kerry have a 15,000+ vote margin coming out of Polk?

Weather: Lazy hazy all over.

NEVADA (5):

Polls open at 10:00 am ET and close at 10:00 pm ET.

Ballot Watch: Nevada will be using Direct Recording Electronic ("DRE"— read: touch screen voting) machines statewide. These machines, unlike Florida, all print out voter verifiable receipts to allow voters to see their ballots before finalizing them. Upon approval, the vote is recorded.

Vote Watch: (1) In Nevada, watch Kerry's margin in Clark County — it needs to be superhigh, or Bush will win the state. (2) watch for the strength of Bush's margins around Reno.

Weather: Sunny.

pedro
11-02-2004, 01:36 PM
The Giant Wafflehead is at the Waffle House close to Polaris.

Waffle here waffle there waffle in your hair giant wafflehead wobbling toward you. Waffle near waffle far waffle in your car, now America must brace for Project Longface:).

meanwhile the president it playing tic tac toe with a chimp.

link (http://www.urban75.org/useless/bush.html)

WVRed
11-02-2004, 01:50 PM
meanwhile the president it playing tic tac toe with a chimp.

link (http://www.urban75.org/useless/bush.html)

One difference, this is a real John Kerry wafflehead-

http://www.glennbeck.com/news/09172004.shtml

Glenn Beck broadcast this on the air today(and for the past several weeks). They had already given it a purple heart after a spring came loose. They gave it two more after somebody sprayed silly string on it and something else happened. They said they would take it home if he got three purple hearts, but they let it run through Columbus anyways:).

I think they said it got flipped off in different places(five times was the last count), and other Dems who saw it just tried to ignore it. Meanwhile, Repubs were honking and waving at it.

pedro
11-02-2004, 01:55 PM
One difference, this is a real John Kerry wafflehead-

http://www.glennbeck.com/news/09172004.shtml

Glenn Beck broadcast this on the air today(and for the past several weeks). They had already given it a purple heart after a spring came loose. They gave it two more after somebody sprayed silly string on it and something else happened. They said they would take it home if he got three purple hearts, but they let it run through Columbus anyways:).

I think they said it got flipped off in different places(five times was the last count), and other Dems who saw it just tried to ignore it. Meanwhile, Repubs were honking and waving at it.

that's some pretty constructive use of time. kind of like arguing politics on redszone. i wonder what the GOP would do if they had to actually come up with arguments that didn't include the words "waffle" or "flip-flop"? maybe they'd talk about about their stellar record of successes - like iraq!

btw- it would be funny if if wasn't so pathetic.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 02:04 PM
National Review's The Corner is saying that early exit polls in Ohio have Kerry up four

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

Redsfaithful
11-02-2004, 02:21 PM
National Review's The Corner is saying that early exit polls in Ohio have Kerry up four

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

Great news if true. And I've read that Democrats generally vote later in the day, so it should only get better.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 02:23 PM
National Review's The Corner is saying that early exit polls in Ohio have Kerry up four

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

From the website-

Do not, again, do not take any exit poll resports too seriously. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE. Exit polls not always reliable, ESPECIALLY early ones. AND, this isn't over until the polls close. So please get to work while there is still time.

DO NOT get depressed. DO NOT get mad. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE.

I contend this is the most important election of many of our lifetimes. I'm almost willing to make a deal and give the Dems 2008 if we can have this one.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 02:24 PM
It's an early exit poll. I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

Remember they had Gore winning Florida easily at this stage in 2000.

Redsfaithful
11-02-2004, 02:29 PM
It's an early exit poll. I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

Remember they had Gore winning Florida easily at this stage in 2000.

I'm not. I tend to wish exit polls didn't exist, I actually didn't think they would since VNS disbanded after 2000. Who's taking these polls?

zombie-a-go-go
11-02-2004, 02:38 PM
I'm not. I tend to wish exit polls didn't exist, I actually didn't think they would since VNS disbanded after 2000. Who's taking these polls?

The National Election Pool (http://www.exit-poll.net/pool.html)

GIK
11-02-2004, 02:51 PM
I contend this is the most important election of many of our lifetimes. I'm almost willing to make a deal and give the Dems 2008 if we can have this one.

I do not accept this offer. :p:

C-SPAN will have early numbers in about 10 minutes (3pm EST).

WVRed
11-02-2004, 02:52 PM
I do not accept this offer. :p:

C-SPAN will have early numbers in about 10 minutes (3pm EST).

I didnt make it, that was from the website:).

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 02:58 PM
Today in the USA Today, each candidate got to pen an editorial called Why you should vote for me today

Bush
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2004-11-01-oplede-bush_x.htm

Kerry
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2004-11-01-oplede-kerry_x.htm

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 03:00 PM
Voter turnout, the last Forty years

http://www.latimes.com/media/graphic/2004-11/14904281.gif

zombie-a-go-go
11-02-2004, 03:00 PM
Just to pass the time, here's some reports of what some are calling a record-breaking voter turnout:


Big early voter turnout creates long lines

- - - - - - - - - - - -
By Roger Petterson



Nov. 2, 2004 | The rush to beat the Election Day crowds at the ballot box turned into a long wait in many places as large numbers of early voters created long lines that ran outside the doors and down streets.

Some determined voters had to wait in rain that fell from Texas to the lower Great Lakes. Texas Panhandle residents navigated snow-covered roads. And some voters in Kansas had to wait for a furnace to heat up.


Both parties had worked hard to boost turnout.

"Some polling places voted 25 percent of their entire registered voters in the first hour," said Tom Leach, spokesman for the Chicago Election Board. "That's just unheard of."


Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said as many as 117.5 million to 121 million voters could cast ballots by the end of the day _ 58 percent to 60 percent of those eligible. In the last presidential election, turnout was 51.2 percent of the voting age population, or 105.4 million voters, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from 1996.

"Compared to 2000, it's completely different," said polling inspector Berlin Sims in Bay Minette, Ala., where the line of people waiting to vote stretched around the civic center. That year, he said, "It was not even this heavy all day."

Many voters had already taken advantage of early voting in several states. Besides the presidency, voters were filling 34 Senate seats, 11 governorships and all 435 House seats.

___

On the southern Plains, up to 7 inches of snow fell overnight in the Texas Panhandle, and Randall County Clerk Sue Bartolino warned voters to be careful on the roads.

In southwestern Kansas, the polling place for several precincts in Garden City had to be moved because the furnace did not work in the Finney County 4-H building. The temperature was in the low 30s.

Snow was likely to cut turnout in nearby Grant County, but "the ones who vote all the time will get out," said county Clerk Linda McHenry.

___

Strangers shared umbrellas in the rain as voters endured waits of two hours or more at polling places throughout Ohio.

"It's our job," Amanda Karel, 25, an Ohio State University graduate student, said as she waited to vote at a banquet hall in Columbus. "It's what we're supposed to do." She added: "It's the only way to make the ads stop."

___

In Fargo, N.D., Shirley Blake said about 50 people were waiting when she opened a polling place, more than she had ever seen that early in more than a decade of working on elections.

___

"I've never had to wait in line before," Fred Flugger, 72, said at his polling place on Pittsburgh's South Side, where dozens of people were already waiting when he arrived shortly after polls opened. "Usually, if I had to wait, it would be three to four minutes."

___

"We wanted to come out early to vote but we never expected such a heavy turnout," Linda Russell said as she stood in line before polls opened in Raleigh, N.C.

Elsewhere in North Carolina, lines of voters snaked down sidewalks and across a street at a Durham precinct, where one man brought a chair to ease the wait.

M2
11-02-2004, 03:00 PM
Drudge has Kerry up in the exit polls in NH, PA, OH, MI, MN, WI, NM and FL.

He has IA tied.

The old axiom is that Republicans vote early and Democrats vote late. If that holds true, then Kerry's in very good shape.

M2
11-02-2004, 03:09 PM
I'm not Red Leader, but I'll give my opinion anyway. In no way do I feel that Edwards is near ready to run the country if it becomes neccessary.

Read something once on which Presidents had the best and worst resumes for the job.

IIRC, Bush the elder had the best resume. Abe Lincoln had the worst.

Red Leader
11-02-2004, 03:15 PM
Read something once on which Presidents had the best and worst resumes for the job.

IIRC, Bush the elder had the best resume. Abe Lincoln had the worst.


I've read a lot about Abe Lincoln in my life, and Sen. Edwards, you are no Abe Lincoln. ;) :allovrjr:

Puffy
11-02-2004, 03:24 PM
Red Leader -

why are posting here but not in the Thread??

Red Leader
11-02-2004, 03:31 PM
Red Leader -

why are posting here but not in the Thread??

Sorry. I have limited time to redszone today. I can basically only check in about once every 20-30 minutes or so and for a brief time. So, I figured I'd be able to keep up with this thread better than "our" thread. ;)

zombie-a-go-go
11-02-2004, 03:39 PM
Early Exit
A squeaker!
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 12:34 PM PT


The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53

Other exit-poll results have arrived in more vague form, with Kerry leading Bush in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire but trailing him in Arizona and Louisiana.

For an explanation of why Slate is posting exit-poll numbers, see the previous post, below. ... 12:15 p.m. PT

http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/

M2
11-02-2004, 03:48 PM
I'm surprised to see North Carolina in play like that, Nevada too. Those two had been seen as solid red states in recent weeks.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 03:50 PM
If Kerry ends up winning Minnesota by 18 points I'll become a Cubs fan. I wouldn't trust any of those numbers.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 03:58 PM
Just to refresh my memory, but what is the percent before there is an automatic recount? I think in Florida last year it had to be less than 1.

guernsey
11-02-2004, 04:00 PM
If Kerry ends up winning Minnesota by 18 points I'll become a Cubs fan. I wouldn't trust any of those numbers.

Bingo.

Also from Drudge:



shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small 1% lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... [But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]...

M2
11-02-2004, 04:02 PM
Just to refresh my memory, but what is the percent before there is an automatic recount? I think in Florida last year it had to be less than 1.

Each state has different rules on that. Generally speaking in an election this large you'd be within 0.1% if you want to get anything overturned.

Red Leader
11-02-2004, 04:08 PM
I think Ohio's is 1/4 of 1% of the total vote to have a recount. Not sure, but I thought I remembered hearing that.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 04:12 PM
Why is it considered intimidation if a poll worker asks for ID?

M2
11-02-2004, 04:18 PM
Why is it considered intimidation if a poll worker asks for ID?

Regardless of whether it's a good idea to see some form of ID, have you ever been asked to show it at a polling site? In 20 years of voting no one's ever made that request to me.

So why should someone else be required to do something that I'm not?

Raisor
11-02-2004, 04:22 PM
Regardless of whether it's a good idea to see some form of ID, have you ever been asked to show it at a polling site? In 20 years of voting no one's ever made that request to me.

So why should someone else be required to do something that I'm not?


It's the law here in Georgia to show ID at the polling place.

I'll see if I can find the list of acceptable ID. I do know that my dad has used his concealed weapon ID before.


EDIT

Here's the list:

You will be required to present identification at your polling place prior to casting your ballot. There are 17 acceptable types including:

a valid Georgia driver's license
a valid identification card issued by a branch, department, agency, or entity of the State of Georgia, any other state, or the United States authorized by law to issue personal identification
a valid U.S. passport
a valid employee identification card containing a photograph of the elector and issued by any branch, department, agency, or entity of the United States government, this state, or any county, municipality, board, authority, or other entity of this state
a valid employee identification card containing a photograph of the elector and issued by any employer of the elector in the ordinary course of such employer's business
a valid student identification card containing a photograph of the elector from any public or private college, university, or postgraduate technical or professional school located within the state of Georgia
a valid Georgia license to carry a pistol or revolver
a valid pilot's license issued by the Federal Aviation Administration or other authorized agency of the United States
a valid United States military identification card
a certified copy of the elector's birth certificate
a valid social security card
certified naturalization documentation
or a certified copy of court records showing adoption, name, or sex change
a copy of a utility bill
a bank statement (will be kept confidential)
a government check or payment with name and address
a government document that shows the name and address of the elector

KYRedsFan
11-02-2004, 04:38 PM
I don't know how every state doen't require ID. I have voted absentee most of my life, but in KY and IL you have to show ID to get the absentee ballot.

RANDY IN INDY
11-02-2004, 04:53 PM
Stood in line 3 hours here in Union Co. NC to vote this morning.

M2
11-02-2004, 05:01 PM
Randy,

Saw a report up here that John Edwards is working NC in a frenzy today. Certainly some of the early exit polls are putting your state a lot closer than anyone thought it would be. Has he been all over the local news?

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 05:11 PM
M2,

Not to speak for Randy, but I'm also in NC and I haven't seen Edwards on the news a lot in the triangle area (though I've been watching CNN today). What I did see when I went to vote was a ton of college aged types voting. I think maybe that explains some of the exit polls.

BoydsOfSummer
11-02-2004, 05:22 PM
Voted at 2pm,usually no problem parking. Lot was full this time. No line but definately looks like a larger turnout. Which is good methinks.

Being a bit of a cut-up and a fairly large man,I decided to have some fun. I swagger up to the table and say "I heard there were some Democrats down here that want to 'rassle!" The whole place goes silent and I thought the elderly ladies working the table were going to stroke. Finally the older fella sitting there chimes in with "Just for that wiseass,I'm gonna have to see your drivers license." He got a kick out of it but I think I traumatized the older ladies.

guernsey
11-02-2004, 05:50 PM
17:12:21 ET // UPDATE: Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday evening after exit data from big media sources claimed Kerry competitive in key states.... FL Kerry +1 PA Kerry+2-4 OH Kerry+1 WI Kerry+4 MI Kerry+2 NH Kerry +4

M2
11-02-2004, 05:52 PM
Love the signature line guernsey.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 06:01 PM
M2,

Not to speak for Randy, but I'm also in NC and I haven't seen Edwards on the news a lot in the triangle area (though I've been watching CNN today). What I did see when I went to vote was a ton of college aged types voting. I think maybe that explains some of the exit polls.

Edwards approval ratings in NC are in the hole so much that he didnt seek re-election. There is a reason why North Carolina has been favoring Bush the last several months.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 06:05 PM
Edwards approval ratings in NC are in the hole so much that he didnt seek re-election. There is a reason why North Carolina has been favoring Bush the last several months.

:confused:
North Carolina almost always goes red. Last election Bush won it by something like 13%. I was simply speaking regarding the exit polls that had it at 51-49%. That's A LOT closer than most people expected. All the analysts/news reporters had it, as M2 stated, solid red.

TeamCasey
11-02-2004, 06:08 PM
I'm actually surprised they don't ask to see everyone's ID.

M2
11-02-2004, 06:11 PM
Edwards approval ratings in NC are in the hole so much that he didnt seek re-election. There is a reason why North Carolina has been favoring Bush the last several months.

He didn't seek re-election because he's on the presidential ticket, prior to that he was running for president.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 06:11 PM
:confused:
North Carolina almost always goes red. Last election Bush won it by something like 13%. I was simply speaking regarding the exit polls that had it at 51-49%. That's A LOT closer than most people expected. All the analysts/news reporters had it, as M2 stated, solid red.

I was referring to people saying Edwards would carry the south for Kerry. Maybe notsomuch on the board, but throughout the media(or that was the general consensus when he was selected).

Edwards political life is on the line tonight. Kerry can at least go back to the Senate.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 06:13 PM
He didn't seek re-election because he's on the presidential ticket, prior to that he was running for president.

That never stopped Joe Lieberman last year:)

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 06:17 PM
Regardless of whether it's a good idea to see some form of ID, have you ever been asked to show it at a polling site? In 20 years of voting no one's ever made that request to me.

So why should someone else be required to do something that I'm not?

In Arizona every time I've voted i've been required to show some form of ID.

They also verified my signature when I "signed in" that it matched my driver's license. Happens every time.

Larkin Fan
11-02-2004, 06:22 PM
Wasn't asked once to show ID when I voted today.

M2
11-02-2004, 06:22 PM
That never stopped Joe Lieberman last year:)

Don't get me started on Joe Lieberman. I still say the Dems should trade him for Linc Chaffee.

TeamMorris
11-02-2004, 06:24 PM
I'm actually surprised they don't ask to see everyone's ID.

They did when we were there. Strange! You had to give your voter identification card or ID...or both if you had both.

M2
11-02-2004, 06:25 PM
In Arizona every time I've voted i've been required to show some form of ID.

They also verified my signature when I "signed in" that it matched my driver's license. Happens every time.

Must be different states have different regs. I've voted in MA, CT and VA. Never been asked. I don't have a problem with asking for ID if you ask everyone for it, but targeting districts based on their political/ethnic/racial mix strikes me as repugnant.

RosieRed
11-02-2004, 06:29 PM
When I voted today, I didn't have to show them anything. No license, no voter registration card, nada. I gave them my name, and that was it. They didn't even ask me for my address.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 06:30 PM
All I had to give was my address today. No ID card, no registration card. Didn't even check my signature.

creek14
11-02-2004, 06:32 PM
They did when we were there. Strange! You had to give your voter identification card or ID...or both if you had both.
That's odd cause in Ohio they aren't supposed to ask for either.

I got to my polling location at 0605 and was about the 50th person in line. By 0630 there were at least 400+ in line. I have been voting for 28 years and have never seen anything like it.

TeamCasey
11-02-2004, 06:33 PM
I heard some people were told that they could come back tomorrow to vote because voter turnout was so high.

Sleaziness abounds!

TeamCasey
11-02-2004, 06:35 PM
TM,

Did they actually ask for them, or did you offer them?

Just curious, because I'm sure we had the same people at the same table. I think you guys voted about an hour before I did.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 06:43 PM
So I'll share this story. This was my girlfriend's first time voting in a Presidential election. So I took off a late lunch today and went with her to the Junior High to go vote.

The lines were incredible. This is my fifth time going to that spot for voting, and the wait time was well over 90 minutes.

In both 2000 and 96 I was able to walk up, wait no more than 10 minutes and vote. And I went about the same time 12 to 1 ish every time.

The area is heavily Republican, and with all the "W" and "Bush/Cheney" bumper stickers all over the parking lot, the place looked like GOP convention.

Impressive to see that many folks out voting today. Can't imagine what it will look like in afew hours when folks get off work.

But she voted and we left. So much for my quick late lunch.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 06:58 PM
Watching CNN - 34-3 Bush

Virginia and SC still haven't been called

RFS62
11-02-2004, 06:59 PM
I got lucky and only had to wait a half hour. I drove by a different polling place, and it had a line out to the road.

No ID check on me either. Just had to tell them my address.

LvJ
11-02-2004, 07:01 PM
Great sites:

http://election.cbsnews.com/election2004/

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/index.html

REAL TIME results.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 07:01 PM
CNN.com has called it 34-3 Bush

Bush with Indiana, Kentucky and Georgia

Kerry with Vermont

Puffy
11-02-2004, 07:01 PM
We had to show one form of ID, then they asked us to verify our address and then they asked the month you were born.

MWM
11-02-2004, 07:08 PM
As of 5:00pm, Zogby is calling Kerry with 311 votes. He has Kerry winning Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

RANDY IN INDY
11-02-2004, 07:08 PM
Randy,

Saw a report up here that John Edwards is working NC in a frenzy today. Certainly some of the early exit polls are putting your state a lot closer than anyone thought it would be. Has he been all over the local news?

Didn't see Edwards on the news here in Charlotte.

paintmered
11-02-2004, 07:11 PM
CNN.com has called it 34-3 Bush

Bush with Indiana, Kentucky and Georgia

Kerry with Vermont


So much for the shutout :devil:

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 07:12 PM
As of 5:00pm, Zogby is calling Kerry with 311 votes. He has Kerry winning Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin.


Did Zogby account for all the Buchanan vote in South Florida?

Joking aside, you'd think after the networks had their credibility shattered last time folks would be a little more hesitent to start calling winners in states where it's close. But that's just me.

M2
11-02-2004, 07:14 PM
Zog's an independent pollster.

KittyDuran
11-02-2004, 07:15 PM
The only time I had to show ID was the first time in 1980 - never had since.

guernsey
11-02-2004, 07:23 PM
As of 5:00pm, Zogby is calling Kerry with 311 votes. He has Kerry winning Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

http://www.zogby.com/

WVRed
11-02-2004, 07:29 PM
As of 7:30, West Virginia is called for Bush. Joe Manchin also gets the governors seat.

Im happy for now, my state carried who I wanted in both the Presidential and Governors race:).

Rojo
11-02-2004, 07:29 PM
Zogby's probably the best pollster out there. But it should be pointed out that their prediction is a telephone poll -- not an exit poll.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 07:30 PM
NC and Ohio can't be projected yet.

MWM
11-02-2004, 07:30 PM
My wife just went to vote and they asked for ID. For some reason they didn't have her name on their records, even though she registered over a month ago. She even received something in the mail last week telling her where to vote based on her address she used when registering. She can't find her registration card, so she's pretty much out of luck. Her Driver's License is still an Ohio license which didn't help.

They told her to bring back a utility statement of some kind with her name on it, then fill out a special applicaiton, and then "maybe" they'd let her vote. Well, when we moved, I'm the one that handled all that stuff, so her name isn't on any of it. She is on our lease, so she went back with that hoping it would work.

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 07:30 PM
If memory serves, isn't West Virginia a historically Democratic State? When did it become solidly Red, enough that it's called just after the polls close?

WVRed
11-02-2004, 07:32 PM
If memory serves, isn't West Virginia a historically Democratic State? When did it become solidly Red, enough that it's called just after the polls close?

Two words:Gun Control

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 07:37 PM
Ahh, Gun Control. The issue that comes in a close second to abortion when it comes to lies, innuendo and falsehoods from both sides.

MuEconRedLeg
11-02-2004, 07:38 PM
[QUOTE]If memory serves, isn't West Virginia a historically Democratic State? When did it become solidly Red, enough that it's called just after the polls close?[QUOTE]

We will still have massive amounts of Democrats in Charleston though...

cincinnati chili
11-02-2004, 07:41 PM
Polls opened at 7am in Mass. I got there at 7:10 and was out by 7:11.

I admire those of you who stood in line. That's a real drag.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 07:44 PM
We will still have massive amounts of Democrats in Charleston though...

Yeah, but the other cities and the lower income areas are what ultimately decided against Charleston. I think the religious fundamentalists also played a role(especially in Parkersburg) of getting out the vote for Bush and Manchin.

Rojo
11-02-2004, 07:44 PM
I filled my absentee ballot out last night and dropped it off at the polling station.

MWM, your wife should be able to fill out a provisional ballot.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 07:59 PM
Now CNN has Kerry 77 - Bush 66

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 08:04 PM
Obama takes Illinois :gac: :gac: :gac:

jmcclain19
11-02-2004, 08:06 PM
The exit polls, being pushed by CNN, are a crock, as far as I'm concerned.

Look at the numbers

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

So you sampled 54% women, and 72% of those said they didn't work. So the largest sample of the polls is stay at home moms. I'm willing to guess that's not a large chunk of America. Just the folks who would be voting early in the morning. And you're calling that scientific. Riiiiight.

GAC
11-02-2004, 08:15 PM
It looks like the marriage amendments are passing pretty easily.

As far as the Prez race. there haven't been any surprises. It's gonna come down to Ohio, Michigan, and Florida.

77-74 Kerry. Bush just won S. Carolina.

GAC
11-02-2004, 08:18 PM
I've never had to show any ID at the poll. But I could've shown that 95 yr old poll worker a "get out of jail free card" and they wouldn't have known the difference. :lol:

cincinnati chili
11-02-2004, 08:36 PM
If Slate's exit polls are correct, Kerry will win the election

http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053/

I agree not to trust these. See Florida in 2000.

It'll be interesting though... if Bush wins, it means that a) these exit polls are fraudulent b) Republican voters shy away from the exit pollsters (the whole Nixon "silent majority" thing)

MWM
11-02-2004, 08:37 PM
My second grader came home in tear today because they "voted" at school today (dumb idea). It's good to teach kids about voting, but not a good idea to have kids actually choose someone. As can be expected in Ann Arbor, most of the kids chose Kerry and my daighter chose Bush.

I mentioned in another thread that another kid at school scared my daughter into thinking that we're going to be attacked if John Kerry wins. It was a stupid thing to say, but I haven't been able to get it out of here mind no matter how much I tell her how ridiculous that is and that there's nothing to worry about. She got really down the other night when she overhead me telling my wife that I was pretty sure Kerry was going to win. Again, I had to talk to her about what she was told was a blatant lie. once the seed was planted, it was toug to remove it. Now today with most of the other kids choosing Kerry, she got off the bus in tears. I think we finally have her understanding that nothing is going to change and that everything will be fine.

I like the idea of teaching kids abou voting and about elections, etc... But they should leave it at that.

Puffy
11-02-2004, 08:43 PM
Obama takes Illinois :gac: :gac: :gac:

One of my best friends works for Obama - says he is a great guy. I was psyched about him before I found this out (the speech won me over) but now I am super double chocolate cake psyched!!

redsrule2500
11-02-2004, 08:45 PM
Bush 2004

Chip R
11-02-2004, 09:03 PM
I remember back in 4th or 5th grade, I think, I bet a girl in my class $1 that Nixon would win the 72 election. I was a Nixon fan then cause I heard McGovern was going to make us go to school on Saturdays. She never paid up. But we got to do a mock vote then. I thought that was pretty cool. :)

cincinnati chili
11-02-2004, 09:37 PM
"For those of you doing the math at home, that's a Bush sweep of five states where the exit polls have him trailing, without losing a single state in which he leads. In three of those states, Bush's winning scenario requires the exit polls to be at least two points off. In Wisconsin, it requires the exit polls to be at least three points off."

Read more at: http://slate.msn.com/id/2109079/

GAC
11-02-2004, 09:40 PM
My second grader came home in tear today because they "voted" at school today (dumb idea). It's good to teach kids about voting, but not a good idea to have kids actually choose someone. As can be expected in Ann Arbor, most of the kids chose Kerry and my daighter chose Bush.

I mentioned in another thread that another kid at school scared my daughter into thinking that we're going to be attacked if John Kerry wins. It was a stupid thing to say, but I haven't been able to get it out of here mind no matter how much I tell her how ridiculous that is and that there's nothing to worry about. She got really down the other night when she overhead me telling my wife that I was pretty sure Kerry was going to win. Again, I had to talk to her about what she was told was a blatant lie. once the seed was planted, it was toug to remove it. Now today with most of the other kids choosing Kerry, she got off the bus in tears. I think we finally have her understanding that nothing is going to change and that everything will be fine.

I like the idea of teaching kids abou voting and about elections, etc... But they should leave it at that.

Don't ya just hate the mean spirited and partisan bickering between kids? It's so childish! :mhcky21:

GAC
11-02-2004, 09:41 PM
Obama takes Illinois :gac: :gac: :gac:

Oh...you said Ubama! :allovrjr:

MWM
11-02-2004, 09:52 PM
"For those of you doing the math at home, that's a Bush sweep of five states where the exit polls have him trailing, without losing a single state in which he leads. In three of those states, Bush's winning scenario requires the exit polls to be at least two points off. In Wisconsin, it requires the exit polls to be at least three points off."

Read more at: http://slate.msn.com/id/2109079/

Yep. Game over as far as I'm concerned.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2004, 09:53 PM
Yep. Game over as far as I'm concerned.

For whom? Who wins, sayeth you?

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 09:53 PM
CNN is reporting that there are 250,000 absentee ballots in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties that Florida says won't be counted until Thursday.

Can't these people get their act together? :angry:

MWM
11-02-2004, 09:55 PM
I've been watching CNN's coverage tonight and I can't figure out why in the world Larry King is included in the coverage. The guy asks the dumbest questions.

Also, I've never seen Tucker Carlson look so demure. He looks defeated and doesn't have the same swagger he usually has.

Marty and Joe
11-02-2004, 09:55 PM
Somebody give me a clean answer of the winner so I can go to bed please!.......

WVRed
11-02-2004, 09:59 PM
I've been watching CNN's coverage tonight and I can't figure out why in the world Larry King is included in the coverage. The guy asks the dumbest questions.

Also, I've never seen Tucker Carlson look so demure. He looks defeated and doesn't have the same swagger he usually has.

Larry King has Walter Kronkite on earlier this week and asked him what he thought of the Osama video, to which Kronkite responded that he believed Karl Rove was behind it. Larry King then asked Kronkite what he thought about chestnuts. :rolleyes:

MWM
11-02-2004, 10:02 PM
For whom? Who wins, sayeth you?

I've said all along I thought Kerry would win Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin and wind up with 299 electoral votes. I hold to that prediction. If you look at history, almost without exception, undecideds generally wind up going for the challenger.

But most importantly, common sense told me that there was no way that any state that voted for Gore in 2000 would wind up for Bush. I just can't imagine that too many people who DIDN'T vote for the guy four years ago would change and actually vote FOR him this time around. That makes little sense. So all it was going to take was one state with significant electoral votes to go from Bush to Kerry. I didn't think that was a tough task considering just how much anti-Bush sentiment there is out there (not saying it's not deserved, just stating that there's a lot of negativity around his presidency). I just couldn't imagine a scenario where Bush didn't lose a single state.

I thought even before the primaries that the Democratic candidate would wind up winning this election.

LvJ
11-02-2004, 10:08 PM
Somebody give me a clean answer of the winner so I can go to bed please!.......

All polls point to a clear Nader victory. Goto bed.

LvJ
11-02-2004, 10:13 PM
Bush up 80,000 with 26% Reporting in Ohio. :thumbup:

WVRed
11-02-2004, 10:14 PM
They showed earlier in Pensacola people singing God Bless America as poll workers came out and told them that they would be allowed to keep the polls open. I think there were 500 people backed up because of how slow the voting was going.

MWM
11-02-2004, 10:20 PM
Bush up 80,000 with 26% Reporting in Ohio. :thumbup:

That's a lot less a lead than he had an hour ago after 16% reporting. From listening to Joe Lockhart, the precints that haven't reported yet are from counties significantly won by Gore in 2000. He needs a much larger margin than 800k if he has any prayer of winning Ohio.

GAC
11-02-2004, 10:37 PM
Wartching the Ohio News Network (ONN).... they report that in Franklin Co. they are still voting because the lines are so long, and it could be cose to midnight before they close/complete.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2004, 10:39 PM
Kerry campaign feeling unconfident about Ohio and Florida. It's going south, fast.

MWM
11-02-2004, 10:41 PM
Kerry campaign feeling unconfident about Ohio and Florida. It's going south, fast.

Less than 2 minutes ago I listened to Joe Lockhart fairly confident with their chances for Florida and pretty much assuring a victory in Ohio.

They both wind up with Kerry. Mark it down and take it to the bank.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 10:44 PM
I heard on CNN that Miami-Dade, Broward, etc are the counties that haven't been counted yet in Florida.

MWM
11-02-2004, 10:45 PM
I heard on CNN that Miami-Dade, Broward, etc are the counties that haven't been counted yet in Florida.

Yes, that's what Lockhart was saying. They have HUGE leads in those counties.

Roy Tucker
11-02-2004, 10:46 PM
You guys may have already talked about this, but my wife said she talked to friend in Deerfield Twp./Mason that waited 2.5-3 hrs. to vote. She walked right into our poll, voted, and was out in 5 minutes.

http://www.enquirer.com/midday/11/11032004_News_mday_warren.html

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 10:49 PM
CNN just projected Pennsylvania for Kerry.

Chip R
11-02-2004, 10:49 PM
NBC has just projected Pennsylvania for Kerry.

MWM
11-02-2004, 10:50 PM
CNN just projected Pennsylvania for Kerry.

They're acting as if this is some kind of surprise for the Bush camp. Pennsylvania was never up for grabs and I don't think they ever thought they'd win Penn.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 10:52 PM
I agree MWM - I never thought it was going to be close. I lived in Pennsylvania for 3 years - it's a pretty liberal place. I think Bush needs to take both Ohio and Florida now to win.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 10:52 PM
They're acting as if this is some kind of surprise for the Bush camp. Pennsylvania was never up for grabs and I don't think they ever thought they'd win Penn.

Exactly, now if Florida and Ohio go in Kerrys favor, color me shocked.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2004, 10:54 PM
I heard on CNN that Miami-Dade, Broward, etc are the counties that haven't been counted yet in Florida.


Actually, in Miami-D and Broward, anywhere from 75-85% of the precincts are reporting. And Kerry's got to find nearly 300,000 unanswered votes.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2004, 10:56 PM
I'm calling Kerry Ohio, Bush Florida. Which means we've got a long way to go tonight, folks.

MWM
11-02-2004, 10:59 PM
I'm calling Kerry Ohio, Bush Florida. Which means we've got a long way to go tonight, folks.

Nah. If Kerry wins Ohio, bye bye Dubya. No way can Bush win Wisconsin, Iowa, AND New Mexico, which I believe is what it would take if Bush loses Ohio.

Spring~Fields
11-02-2004, 11:01 PM
Ohio, CANDIDATE VOTE TOTAL PERCENT WINNER
Bush (Rep)* 1482112 52%
Kerry (Dem) 1368742 48%
% of precincts reporting: 51

Florida, CANDIDATE VOTE TOTAL PERCENT WINNER
Bush (Rep)* 3341422 52%
Kerry (Dem) 3026961 47%
Nader (RP ) 28560 1%
% of precincts reporting: 91

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:04 PM
I didn't realize Florida had such a high percentage of precincts reported.

Playadlc
11-02-2004, 11:05 PM
Kerry's totals coming out of Cuyhoga County (Cleveland)

> us running about 4 points below the total Gore had four years ago. NBC also reported that there was no change in the percentage of 18-29 year olds that voted today versus four years ago. Just 17% of 18-29 year olds voted which debunks the lofty hype given to the young vote.

Falls City Beer
11-02-2004, 11:05 PM
It's nip and tuck--don't even glance at the exit polls. Meaningless.

It's gonna be Florida in Ohio by the time this thing's over.

Playadlc
11-02-2004, 11:07 PM
Yeah, but if true, those numbers don't bode well for Kerry.

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:08 PM
Like I sid yesterday, it's all about Ohio and Florida.

SteelSD
11-02-2004, 11:09 PM
I'm sure the media doesn't want to make the same mistake twice, but I can't see any way Bush doesn't win Florida at this point. There aren't enough votes to be made up in Broward and Clay Counties, especially when it appears that Bush will chew most of any gain up in Duval.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 11:10 PM
Just saw on Fox News that the ACLU has filed a lawsuit to extend the deadline until November 12th in Florida so that the absentee ballots that were mailed Saturday can be counted.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 11:10 PM
I'm sure the media doesn't want to make the same mistake twice, but I can't see any way Bush doesn't win Florida at this point. There aren't enough votes to be made up in Broward and Clay Counties, especially when it appears that Bush will chew most of any gain up in Duval.

Has Escambia County been counted yet?

SteelSD
11-02-2004, 11:11 PM
Has Escambia County been counted yet?

99% in Escambia. 66% in Bush's favor.

Spring~Fields
11-02-2004, 11:12 PM
ABC seems to be keeping up to date.


http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Elections2004/President.html

SteelSD
11-02-2004, 11:12 PM
BTW, here's an excellent link:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:13 PM
Larry King, "The biggest issue in New York is the stadium, right?"

Response from everyone, "No, no, no. It's not even on the ballot."

:MandJ: :MandJ: :MandJ:

Marty and Joe
11-02-2004, 11:14 PM
Somebody give me a clean answer so I can go to bed please.... ;)

SteelSD
11-02-2004, 11:17 PM
Somebody give me a clean answer so I can go to bed please.... ;)

Here's the cleanest answer I can give you:

It appears that Bush wins Florida. With 58% of the precincts reporting in Ohio, Bush has a 130,000 vote lead. If that lead holds, Bush is re-elected.

Playadlc
11-02-2004, 11:23 PM
Nah. If Kerry wins Ohio, bye bye Dubya. No way can Bush win Wisconsin, Iowa, AND New Mexico, which I believe is what it would take if Bush loses Ohio.

Where are you putting Florida? It looks like Bush is going to take Florida. If he does then Kerry has to win Ohio and pretty much everything else to get 270.

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:24 PM
Who is the African-American gentleman on CNN with King and Blitzer? I like this guy.

SteelSD
11-02-2004, 11:29 PM
Who is the African-American gentleman on CNN with King and Blitzer? I like this guy.

Please, someone correct me if I'm wrong because the TV's downstairs, but isn't that Ed Bradley?

Edit: Nevermind. Got CBS and CNN confused. The guy is an anchorman for one of their morning shows I guess (at least that's what my wife tells me).

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:31 PM
Where are you putting Florida? It looks like Bush is going to take Florida. If he does then Kerry has to win Ohio and pretty much everything else to get 270.

Well, I didn't realize just how many precincts had reported. I made the mistake of looking at exit polls. plus, I tend to trust Zogby and he had Florida going to Kerry. I wouldn't put it in the Bush column just yet. Crazy things can happen.

But, some of these states are so close, it's impossible to call. These are just hunches. Ohio has been in Kerry's column for most of the last few eeks leadig up to the election. That's why I thought he's wind Ohio. Good chance he still does. It's extremely close there.

Marty and Joe
11-02-2004, 11:35 PM
With 60.43% of the Ohio vote in: Bush 52.37%, Kerry 46.97%...difference of 180,000 votes...still cant' go to bed....

Falls City Beer
11-02-2004, 11:36 PM
It's literally going to take a miracle for Kerry to win this.

SteelSD
11-02-2004, 11:37 PM
Of interest to some:

With 58% of precincts reporting:

US Senate- South Dakota-

Tom Daschle: 103,064
John Thune: 105,099

RFS62
11-02-2004, 11:41 PM
It's literally going to take a miracle for Kerry to win this.


I believe the word you are searching for is catastrophe.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 11:41 PM
Florida to Bush per ABC

Marty and Joe
11-02-2004, 11:41 PM
I believe the word you are searching for is catastrophe.

:gac:

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:43 PM
The Democrats are still convinced they are going to win Ohio. I don't know what to mkae of it, but there's still a chance there.

RosieRed
11-02-2004, 11:45 PM
The latest from AP:

Here are the latest nationwide election returns in the race for president with 61 percent of the nation’s precincts reporting.

Kerry 37,253,931 - 48 percent
Has won 13 states including the District of Columbia with 188 ev.
Leads in 7 states with 60 ev.

Bush 39,484,919 - 51 percent
Has won 24 states with 210 ev.
Leads in 5 states with 63 ev.

Others 674,320 - 1 percent

Falls City Beer
11-02-2004, 11:45 PM
The Democrats are still convinced they are going to win Ohio. I don't know what to mkae of it, but there's still a chance there.


No way. It just keeps getting worse and worse. It's over.

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:45 PM
If Bush wins this election, it's going to be a somber day on campus tomorrow here in Ann Arbor.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 11:46 PM
The Democrats are still convinced they are going to win Ohio. I don't know what to mkae of it, but there's still a chance there.

For some reason, they think the Cuyahoga County area will cut from a 130,000 state lead to a 3,000 lead in a couple of hours. Susan Estridge I think was the one on Fox News telling this. IIRC, Cuyahoga County has already been counted.;)

SteelSD
11-02-2004, 11:46 PM
The Democrats are still convinced they are going to win Ohio. I don't know what to mkae of it, but there's still a chance there.

The gap still appears to be 130,000 votes in Bush's favor, but Kerry's throttling Bush in Cuyahoga (63% to 37%) with 52% of precincts reporting.

There's ground to be gained, but it's got to happen quickly.

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:46 PM
Who is the African-American gentleman on CNN with King and Blitzer? I like this guy.

I beleive he just said his name was Carlos Watson.

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:48 PM
For some reason, they think the Cuyahoga County area will cut from a 130,000 state lead to a 3,000 lead in a couple of hours. Susan Estridge I think was the one on Fox News telling this. IIRC, Cuyahoga County has already been counted.;)

At this time four years ago, we thought Gore had won Florida. It's not over yet.

SteelSD
11-02-2004, 11:48 PM
I beleive he just said his name was Carlos Watson.

Cool. I only saw him a couple times and once he looked kinda scared to be sitting there with Wolf and King, but he's a likeable guy.

WVRed
11-02-2004, 11:49 PM
At this time four years ago, we thought Gore had won Florida. It's not over yet.

Just saw Steels post about Cuyahoga County, disregard what I said.

Spring~Fields
11-02-2004, 11:49 PM
It's literally going to take a miracle for Kerry to win this.

He can still win it because he has decent leads in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and basically has the west coast as a lock. Bush is short of electorial even if he does take Ohio and Florida, unless I missed something big time...........

Marty and Joe
11-02-2004, 11:50 PM
Somebody give me a clean answer so I can go to bed please.... :D

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:51 PM
Ohio could end up being the Florida of 2004. It's going to come down to the wire and a recount is possible.

RFS62
11-02-2004, 11:52 PM
Somebody give me a clean answer so I can go to bed please.... :D



W

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:53 PM
I used to really hate James Carville, for some reason he's starting to grow on me.

But Robert Novak still annoys the hell out of me.

letsgojunior
11-02-2004, 11:55 PM
53% of Cuyahoga (or however you spell it) has been counted.

MWM
11-02-2004, 11:59 PM
I really like the comments Carville is making on the Democratic party reassessing their entire strategy if they lose this election. With the war in Iraq, th economy, and the winning all three debates, Kerry should not lose this election. If he does, it's time to take a long look in the mirror.

SteelSD
11-02-2004, 11:59 PM
cnn.com currently has Bush with 197 Electoral Votes. Kerry holds 188.

If Bush wins Florida (almost a lock now) and Ohio (uncertain), that would put him at 244. Bush will win Arizona (10 EV) and Montana (3 EV). That adds up to 257. He should win Colorado (9 EV). That's 266.

If one more state not listed falls to Bush (assuming he wins Ohio), that's game over folks.

SteelSD
11-03-2004, 12:02 AM
Ohio could end up being the Florida of 2004. It's going to come down to the wire and a recount is possible.

The way this thing is headed, you might be able to say that about a number of states. Wow.

RosieRed
11-03-2004, 12:02 AM
The latest from AP:

Here are the latest nationwide election returns in the race for president with 65 percent of the nation’s precincts reporting.

Kerry 39,185,026 - 48 percent
Has won 13 states including the District of Columbia with 188 ev.
Leads in 8 states with 71 ev.

Bush 41,736,189 - 51 percent
Has won 25 states with 237 ev.
Leads in 3 states with 25 ev.

Others 713,987 - 1 percent

Larkin Fan
11-03-2004, 12:02 AM
53% of Cuyahoga (or however you spell it) has been counted.

Cuyahoga heavily leans towards Kerry. But local news is saying that Ohio could be determined by the tally of votes in Franklin County.

WVRed
11-03-2004, 12:03 AM
He can still win it because he has decent leads in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and basically has the west coast as a lock. Bush is short of electorial even if he does take Ohio and Florida, unless I missed something big time...........

Right now CBS News has Bush ahead 246-199(including Florida). Add in Ohio and its 266. All he would need from that list is Nevada, New Mexico, Hawaii, or New Hampshire, and one of those is easily attainable.

MWM
11-03-2004, 12:04 AM
Cuyahoga heavily leans towards Kerry. But local news is saying that Ohio could be determined by the tally of votes in Franklin County.

Franklin is also highly Democratic. I still think it goes down to the wire. I definitely wouldn't put Ohio in the Bush column just yet. It's going to wind up less than 1%.

MWM
11-03-2004, 12:05 AM
I feel about the same way following this election as I did the ALCS.