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westofyou
12-27-2004, 03:45 PM
The signing of Milton is an attempt to make meatloaf out of hamburger, however the price is a little too Ruth Chris, hopefuly he pans out or gets flipped before the ketchup glaze burns.

As far getting angry I'll pass, it's not my problem.

traderumor
12-27-2004, 03:47 PM
Ummmm, meatloaf. :)

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 03:48 PM
money probably would have bough a real good meatloaf :drool:

MWM
12-27-2004, 03:48 PM
Thank you very much Boss.

What wheels said. Now THAT is funny.

FlyingPig
12-27-2004, 03:49 PM
You should see what the Yankees forum is saying about this deal.. :rolleyes:

One guy said..and I quote.."Players go to the Reds (in recent years) to serve out their carreers and die."

ouch..

:help:


http://www.baseballfans.net/yankeestalk/yankeesboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=100&topic_id=35948&mode=full

oneupper
12-27-2004, 03:49 PM
Puts the Paul Wilson signing in a different light.

Paul Wilson might actually be upset after seeing this.

"We're a poor team Paul, this is all we can offer"

Say goodbye to a LTC for Dunn.

If money weren't such a constraint, there wouldn't be much of a discussion about this signing.

Darn it.. I hate not being rich! :help:

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 03:50 PM
I do agree that the money is outrageous. O'Brien is kind of putting his head on the chopping block if all these moves backfire. I will give him credit for having the courage of his convictions, though that is what they also said about General Custer. But, there is no doubt that this is a better club that closed out the 2004 season, imho. Signifigantly better.

Dan O'Brien is showing he has a pair...I think there were doubts about that, but he's also not talking and making himself look foolish like Bowden did

...My god...I'm actually praising Dan O'Brien...what the hell is going on?? :eek:

johngalt
12-27-2004, 03:53 PM
Maybe Dunn has said he doesn't want to stay here long-term.

For those of you who say you'd have rather saved the money and spent it next year on a FA, I understand what you're saying.

But if you think this signing was done at the expense of signing Clement or Perez or Pavano or at the expense of signing Dunn or Kearns long-term, you're mistaken.

letsgojunior
12-27-2004, 03:54 PM
Talk about severely overpaying. I was complaining the other day about Javy Vazquez not being a $9 M pitcher. And Eric Milton is no Javy Vazquez.

I'm not sure what's worse - the Reds slashing payroll every season, or them just overspending on mediocre talent. It's nice to see them finally attempting to put a good product on the field, but frankly this is not the way to go at all. This signing could prevent Dunn and Kearns from being signed to LTC's. Think of the payroll this way now: Griffey, Casey, Graves, Wilson, Milton - That's a HELLUVA lot of money for not much performance.

MWM
12-27-2004, 03:54 PM
I hadn't even thought about how this will affect locking up the likes of Adam Dunn among others. Ouch!

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 03:54 PM
Dan O'Brien is showing he has a pair...I think there were doubts about that, but he's also not talking and making himself look foolish like Bowden did

Yeah. O'Brien's now confirmed that he's spent many many months agonizing over which decisions to make.

And, after the mulling and mechanizations...he's making bad decisions. But at least he's not talking about the bad decisions before he makes them?

Very laudable. Uh-uh.

MartyFan
12-27-2004, 03:55 PM
You should see what the Yankees forum is saying about this deal.. :rolleyes:

One guy said..and I quote.."Players go to the Reds (in recent years) to serve out their carreers and die."

ouch..

:help:


http://www.baseballfans.net/yankeestalk/yankeesboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=100&topic_id=35948&mode=full


Who gives a rip what the Yankees sy...what kind of deal did they sign Kevin Brown to?

How'd that Jeff Weaver deal work out for them?

Who is their second baseman?

Just a few questions to tell them to "shove it" with.

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 03:56 PM
But if you think this signing was done at the expense of signing Clement or Perez or Pavano or at the expense of signing Dunn or Kearns long-term, you're mistaken.
how so? you could have gone as high as $10,000,000 on Clement without any real problem. you don't sign Randa or Milton. that's more than 10mil. you then put Freel or Jimenez at 3B (whomever you think is the lesser defensive 2B). problem solved. Clement is yours.

FlyingPig
12-27-2004, 03:56 PM
Talk about severely overpaying. I was complaining the other day about Javy Vazquez not being a $9 M pitcher. And Eric Milton is no Javy Vazquez.

I'm not sure what's worse - the Reds slashing payroll every season, or them just overspending on mediocre talent. It's nice to see them finally attempting to put a good product on the field, but frankly this is not the way to go at all. This signing could prevent Dunn and Kearns from being signed to LTC's. Think of the payroll this way now: Griffey, Casey, Graves, Wilson, Milton - That's a HELLUVA lot of money for not much performance.

Not much performance out of Casey?

The others I agree with....but Casey?

bleedsred
12-27-2004, 03:57 PM
I think you really can't compare Boston signing Clement to the Reds signing of Milton....Boston is the defending champ and an annual playoff contender...Cincy has to overpay for any pitching that they are going to acquire....Clement may have been offered more by the Reds but chose to go with a proven winner. In other words, the Reds dollar isn't worth as much as a Boston, NY, LA, STL, or Braves dollar. JMHO

johngalt
12-27-2004, 03:58 PM
how so? you could have gone as high as $10,000,000 on Clement without any real problem. you don't sign Randa or Milton. that's more than 10mil. you then put Freel or Jimenez at 3B (whomever you think is the lesser defensive 2B). problem solved. Clement is yours.

You're assuming Clement would have come here for that much money.

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 03:58 PM
Not much performance out of Casey?

The others I agree with....but Casey?
i think you missed the logic. the logic being Casey is the only one in that entire group who is performing.

MWM
12-27-2004, 03:58 PM
My how the tide has turned in this thread.

westofyou
12-27-2004, 03:58 PM
Dan O'Brien is showing he has a pair...I think there were doubts about that, but he's also not talking and making himself look foolish like Bowden did

...My god...I'm actually praising Dan O'Brien...what the hell is going on?? :eek:

Thiry one seasons ago Dans daddy was the GM for the Texas Rangers, he highlighted his first off season with this move.

Traded Bill Madlock and Vic Harris to the Chicago Cubs.

Received Fergie Jenkins.

He went 25-12, had 29 complete games, pitched 328 innings and had an era of 2.82.

If Milton does that thiis will be a good signing. ;)

letsgojunior
12-27-2004, 03:59 PM
Not much performance out of Casey?

The others I agree with....but Casey?

Casey has lived up to his salary one year out of the last three. Last year was certainly a huge improvement (and he did earn every penny), but he has to duplicate that before I'm convinced. Still, it's bad that when I just listed 5 guys, only one of them can be considered a "good deal".

Regardless, the point is that we've got a LOT of money tied up in injury prone underperformers, whereas we're letting guys like Dunn go year-to-year rather than locking them up longterm. It's bad business IMO.

Jpup
12-27-2004, 03:59 PM
how so? you could have gone as high as $10,000,000 on Clement without any real problem. you don't sign Randa or Milton. that's more than 10mil. you then put Freel or Jimenez at 3B (whomever you think is the lesser defensive 2B). problem solved. Clement is yours.

What makes you think that Boston would not have overbid the Reds? Also, why would you think that Clement would want to play in Cincinnati? Just because a player is available doesn't mean he's available to Cincinnati.

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 03:59 PM
You're assuming Clement would have come here for that much money.
so when did you become Clement's agent?

redsfan30
12-27-2004, 03:59 PM
This thread is so funny...

From the thread: "Sounds like we have some inside info (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30652)":

I don't even know what to say, given his comments in this thread where he's going gaga over another terrible signing by the Reds. The discrepency between his comments pretty much speaks volumes about his credibility and the fact that he will blindly support any move the Reds' front office makes, even if it completely contradicts something he said just a couple of days earlier. My predicition is that this contract will cripple the Reds in future years and then we'll hear the "We have no money" mantra again.

Boss
I've made no secret that he would not be my first choice. But now that he is a Red, I choose to look at the positves, and not dwell on the negatives. Question my "credibilty" all you want Boss. Is he my first pick, no. Does he have some scary numbers? Yes. But now that he is a Red, I will look past that and try to find the positives.

johngalt
12-27-2004, 04:00 PM
so when did you become Clement's agent?

I'm just telling you what I hear. People seem to be under the incorrect assumption that we could have thrown money at anyone and had them.

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 04:00 PM
how so? you could have gone as high as $10,000,000 on Clement without any real problem. you don't sign Randa or Milton. that's more than 10mil. you then put Freel or Jimenez at 3B (whomever you think is the lesser defensive 2B). problem solved. Clement is yours.

Well, not only that but if Eric Milton was 9M worth of performance (riiiiight), Matt Clement was worth another 4M per season minimum.

Yeah. The Reds would have been better off beating the Red Sox offer by 4M- at minimum- than signing Eric Milton.

We don't think Clement would have come to Cinci for an extra 4M per season?

If the Reds are going to overspend, I'd rather they do it for a performer.

wheels
12-27-2004, 04:00 PM
I've made no secret that he would not be my first choice. But now that he is a Red, I choose to look at the positves, and not dwell on the negatives. Question my "credibilty" all you want Boss. Is he my first pick, no. Does he have some scary numbers? Yes. But now that he is a Red, I will look past that and try to find the positives.

And cuss at other people in the process.

Not cool.

FlyingPig
12-27-2004, 04:01 PM
i think you missed the logic. the logic being Casey is the only one in that entire group who is performing.


ahhh..well in that case..

my bad..

Sometimes I need an icon of something going right over my head..

:slap:

traderumor
12-27-2004, 04:01 PM
You should see what the Yankees forum is saying about this deal.. :rolleyes:

One guy said..and I quote.."Players go to the Reds (in recent years) to serve out their carreers and die."

ouch..

:help:


http://www.baseballfans.net/yankeestalk/yankeesboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=100&topic_id=35948&mode=full
Yea, far be it from the Yankees to overpay for middling talent

While we're throwing out our little factoids, Milton's career ERA is 99 with 100 being league average, with more years of above league average than below. $9M for an average pitcher is not a great contract, that much I will concede, but then I also think folks that are painting him as a bad pitcher are knowingly or unknowingly basing that on a "norm" that says good pitchers have ERAs in the high 2s or low 3s. It is important to realize that his 4.76 ERA is average in this era of baseball.

Just wanted to put that out there as well.

SYCMiniBus
12-27-2004, 04:03 PM
Clement in my opinion wanted to play for a contender he really seemed to have no other interest. If he could get 10 mil from the Reds and 8.5 from Red Sox he still ends up in Boston in my opinion. Sometimes it isnt ALL about the money. Though many times money is 90% of the equation. It is entirely possible Clement wanted to either pitch on the east coast, for a contender, in the AL, etc. We do not know exactly what every free agent is thinking.

Milton still is a pretty decent pitcher (more like 5-6 mil good rather then 8.5 mil good) I mean our top 3 now atleast have a chance when u match them up against Woody Williams and Matt Morris types unlike the last few years when we were at a big time disadvantage.

Boss-Hog
12-27-2004, 04:06 PM
But now that he is a Red, I will look past that and try to find the positives.
Let us know when you've found them.

DunnersGrl44
12-27-2004, 04:09 PM
Let us know when you've found them.
I think there are a lot of positives to this signing. I don't really know about the future. But i think that he can add to this team, and if the FO doesn't do something stupid like trading away our young guns, I think that we are starting to look like a team that has a chance.
And like someone said earlier, it is possible that some of the young guys looking for a long term contract, said they didn't want to come back. I don't want to jump all over this signing. I think it's to much money... but other than that, it could be a good signing! A great signing at that.

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 04:10 PM
Clement in my opinion wanted to play for a contender he really seemed to have no other interest. If he could get 10 mil from the Reds and 8.5 from Red Sox he still ends up in Boston in my opinion. Sometimes it isnt ALL about the money. quite possibly. but i have a sneaking suspcioun, we could have given Millwood the same deal Cleveland did, and then sign Perez for 2 years at $14mil...the exact amount of Milton's contract.

if Milton had Wilson's contract, it might be a palatable signing.

westofyou
12-27-2004, 04:13 PM
but i have a sneaking suspcioun, we could have given Millwood the same deal Cleveland did, and then sign Perez for 2 years at $14mil...the exact amount of Milton's contract.

I always thought that I could dock the Lunar Module myself, no problem, but we just won't ever know will we? ;)

Krusty
12-27-2004, 04:14 PM
Man, some of you guys are unbelieveable. The Reds go out and show their fans that they are willing to spend money to bring pitching in and all I read is how we overpay for Milton.

At least the Reds have showed they are committed to winning. Adding three relievers and two starters while giving up only a minor league pitcher has been a tremendous offseason. Add Randa to the deal and we have more depth considering Pena and Freel will be coming off the bench at the moment.

Yeah we overpaid but at least we are trying to win finally.

Good job Dano. Thank you Mr. Lindner and the Limiteds.

redsfan30
12-27-2004, 04:15 PM
Let us know when you've found them.
200+ innings pitched 4 times in his career.
1.30 career WHIP
71-57 career record
.258 career BAA
2.61 BB/9
6.63 K/9

In postseason play (only 10 innings but still)
1-0
1.74
0.87 WHIP

He's 30 years old and a lefty starter.

I'd say those are positive things.

There are negatives (homerun numbers and contract figures) but I chose not to dwell on them now that he is a Cincinnati Red.

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 04:16 PM
Yea, far be it from the Yankees to overpay for middling talent

While we're throwing out our little factoids, Milton's career ERA is 99 with 100 being league average, with more years of above league average than below. $9M for an average pitcher is not a great contract, that much I will concede, but then I also think folks that are painting him as a bad pitcher are knowingly or unknowingly basing that on a "norm" that says good pitchers have ERAs in the high 2s or low 3s. It is important to realize that his 4.76 ERA is average in this era of baseball.

Just wanted to put that out there as well.

Problem is that the league average, park normalized ERA has been 4.42 and 4.36 during Milton's last two healthy seasons and his own ERA has been around 0.40 higher in both those seasons. He's years removed from putting up a decent ERA+ and eons away from being a pitcher worth more than 2-3M per season as a back of the rotation Innings-eater.

Unless Milton becomes a completely different pitcher, this deal is three times worse than the Cory Lidle signing last year and more like 10x worse because if Milton performs as he has been, he's ours for three seasons at a salary that's virtually unmoveable.

I know you're trying to be positive, tr. I just don't see it though.

MartyFan
12-27-2004, 04:16 PM
No it won't....don't have enough staff with the holidays :)

Look, I know it is clear channel and all but why the heck don't you have ISDN line or some remote gear over there that is just a plug in? ;)

Tell Mr. Parks to look into this as the Reds are certain to be a hot comodity with teir pening Press gatherings.

Krusty
12-27-2004, 04:16 PM
I thought the purpose was to have lefty pitching especially at GAB? Seems the Reds have that in mind.

indyfan5
12-27-2004, 04:17 PM
Eric Milton gave up 43 homers last year.

Forty-three.

Let that sink in a bit.

So what, how many were with runners on base? heck Dunn's homerun total looks nice, but lets not forget how man were solo shots. I like this signing, no I LOVE this signing. I would have rather had Hudson but this is great. Anyone who has watched the Reds do nothing over the past 14+ seasons in the offseason and not say that this team is moving in the right direction is just plain clueless.

Redny
12-27-2004, 04:18 PM
Man, some of you guys are unbelieveable. The Reds go out and show their fans that they are willing to spend money to bring pitching in and all I read is how we overpay for Milton.

At least the Reds have showed they are committed to winning. Adding three relievers and two starters while giving up only a minor league pitcher has been a tremendous offseason. Add Randa to the deal and we have more depth considering Pena and Freel will be coming off the bench at the moment.

Yeah we overpaid but at least we are trying to win finally.

Good job Dano. Thank you Mr. Lindner and the Limiteds.


Well said.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 04:18 PM
Look, I know it is clear channel and all but why the heck don't you have ISDN line or some remote gear over there that is just a plug in? ;)

Tell Mr. Parks to look into this as the Reds are certain to be a hot comodity with teir pening Press gatherings.


We do....but for some reason we don't have a direct line to the conference room like we do at Paul Brown Stadium (of course press conferences are an NFL requirement)

Wiring I guess...I doesn't know

Aronchis
12-27-2004, 04:19 PM
I figured this is how the reaction would be:
"smart" fans hate it
"lay/common" fans love it.

The move does little for me for the Reds post-season chances, Claussen's development this season will move the Reds season. I won't change that because of this signing.

Krusty
12-27-2004, 04:22 PM
I like the rotation:

Wilson rhp
Ortiz rhp
Milton rhp
Harang rhp
Claussen lhp or Hudson rhp or Hancock rhp

Alittle competition for the youngsters will bring out the best in them.

creek14
12-27-2004, 04:22 PM
The Reds go out and show their fans that they are willing to spend money
Spending money and spending money wisely are two different things.

We'll (at least I'll) have to see performance and fallout (how this effects other moves) before we know which side of the tracks this signing falls.

MartyFan
12-27-2004, 04:22 PM
We do....but for some reason we don't have a direct line to the conference room like we do at Paul Brown Stadium

Wiring I guess...I doesn't know


Alright...so are you going to capture it from the net or do they upload it onto a website for you or what?

missionhockey21
12-27-2004, 04:23 PM
Yeah we overpaid but at least we are trying to win finally.

Good job Dano. Thank you Mr. Lindner and the Limiteds.
You do have a point Krusty. I may not be thrilled with the finacials of this deal but the interest in improving the team from the FO is refreshing. Did they spend their money most effectively though is the question.

SYCMiniBus
12-27-2004, 04:24 PM
quite possibly. but i have a sneaking suspcioun, we could have given Millwood the same deal Cleveland did, and then sign Perez for 2 years at $14mil...the exact amount of Milton's contract.

if Milton had Wilson's contract, it might be a palatable signing.

While I agree with you about Millwood, but I do not think Perez would sign for 2 years for some reason the 3rd year seems to magical for pitchers who are fairly young. They all want that 3rd garunteed year 2 yr deals for pitchers who are between 28-33 seem very rare to me. I could be wrong but at this point that is my perception. Although to be honest I like Milton about as much as Perez because I am just not sure how much Perez benefitted from Dodger Stadium as opposed Philly and the Homer dome.
We shall see though how things go. DanO is definitly putting his stamp on the team

MWM
12-27-2004, 04:24 PM
Man, some of you guys are unbelieveable. The Reds go out and show their fans that they are willing to spend money to bring pitching in and all I read is how we overpay for Milton.

Yet, you say later in the post that the Reds DID overpay for Milton. What's the problem with pointing out that


At least the Reds have showed they are committed to winning.

That's what I'm worried about. That THIS is their committment to winning.

Krusty you seem to be satisfied just because they're spending money. I'm not a believer in that philosophy. If I go out and pay $500,000 for a house that's only worth $100,000 just so I can say I live in an expensive house, that doesn't change the fact that the house isn't that great.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 04:24 PM
Someone's down there covering it...we'll have audio later so we can air cuts

Krusty
12-27-2004, 04:24 PM
At least the Reds are trying. A few weeks ago we were *****ing about O'Brien not doing anything other than talk double talk.

Three weeks later he is out-doing former Reds GM Jim Bowden.

Whoever thought three weeks ago we would be signing five free agents?

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 04:24 PM
200+ innings pitched 4 times in his career.
1.30 career WHIP
71-57 career record
.258 career BAA
2.61 BB/9
6.63 K/9

In postseason play (only 10 innings but still)
1-0
1.74
0.87 WHIP

He's 30 years old and a lefty starter.

I'd say those are positive things.

There are negatives (homerun numbers and contract figures) but I chose not to dwell on them now that he is a Cincinnati Red.

How many Runs is he worth to the Pitching Staff? That's the only positive or negative value that can possibly impact the club. That's it.

And it appears that since your position is that you're now willing to ignore bad things why do you also feel a need to rip those who choose not to let their fandom alter their perceptions that way?

We're all Reds fans here. It's just that a lot of folks don't allow a player's uniform to drive their analysis of player value.

MartyFan
12-27-2004, 04:25 PM
Of the 43 homers, 25 were solo shots ... Opponents hit .178 off him in the first inning ...

Puffy
12-27-2004, 04:25 PM
Too much money for an average pitcher, even if average makes you the best on the Reds.

Just sayin'

MartyFan
12-27-2004, 04:28 PM
Someone's down there covering it...we'll have audio later so we can air cuts


Okay, I'll be happy with that...just giving you a rough way to go...I dig the big one...moreso than 610 here in Columbus...610 is so canned it is sickening.

Krusty
12-27-2004, 04:28 PM
Krusty you seem to be satisfied just because they're spending money. I'm not a believer in that philosophy. If I go out and pay $500,000 for a house that's only worth $100,000 just so I can say I live in an expensive house, that doesn't change the fact that the house isn't that great.

And how many teams have overpaid for the pitching out there this offseason? I think all of them.

The Reds have shown their fans that they are committed to winning. Signing five free agents with the latest one being slobber-knocker proportions should silence the critics that the Reds won't spend. But you have those who say they spent too much.

No matter what you can't satisfy some posters here.

flyer85
12-27-2004, 04:28 PM
Neyer just did a column yesterday on worst FA signings of the off-season. Finley, Percival and Ortiz were at the top of the list.

I would have to say the Milton signing vaults right over the top of them.

redsfan30
12-27-2004, 04:30 PM
How many Runs is he worth to the Pitching Staff? That's the only positive or negative value that can possibly impact the club. That's it.

And it appears that since your position is that you're now willing to ignore bad things why do you also feel a need to rip those who choose not to let their fandom alter their perceptions that way?

We're all Reds fans here. It's just that a lot of folks don't allow a player's uniform to drive their analysis of player value.
I agree with you that the only thing that matters is how he performs. We can pick this deal apart all we want, but we won't find out until spring.

I'm not ignoring the bad things. They are there. Nobody can make them go away. Except for the one post, I didn't rip anyone for feeling the way they do. I shouldn't have said that stuff because I don't want people telling me I'm wrong for thinking what I do.

You are right, we are all Reds fans.

wheels
12-27-2004, 04:31 PM
I can be satisfied....Bring in a good pitcher, or deal off some guys for good prospects. Spend money wisely.

It's not brain surgery.

Krusty
12-27-2004, 04:33 PM
Instead of cutting payroll the team is boasting payroll to possible the 60-65 million mark. If you tell me we can do this while rebuild the farm system at the same time.......my optimism about the future of this club is on the upswing.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 04:33 PM
We should have just signed Cory Lidle....then we'd at least know what to expect :rolleyes:

They rolled the dice..made some moves, and are actually showing they may actually DO want to win - it's a process - I've said I wanted to see something, see evidence that perhaps, maybe there actually is a plan in place to make the team better

These signings make the team better

...sucks doesn't it

Krusty
12-27-2004, 04:34 PM
Being lefthanded might be to Milton's advantage while pitching at GAB?

MWM
12-27-2004, 04:35 PM
The Reds have shown their fans that they are committed to winning.

For the life of me Krusty, I can't figure out how you come to that conclusion based on what the Reds FO has signed. Because I am a Reds fan and the moves they've made this offseason has shown me that at all.



No matter what you can't satisfy some posters here.

Not true. I know I'd be thrilled if they made moves that moved them in the direction of a contender either now or in the future. The moves that have been made are TEMPORARY and MARGINAL improvements that will not contribute to a playoff berth ANYTIME. I can go in the opposite direction as your comment above and say that "no matter what, you can satisfy some posters here simply by making moves."

traderumor
12-27-2004, 04:36 PM
Problem is that the league average, park normalized ERA has been 4.42 and 4.36 during Milton's last two healthy seasons and his own ERA has been around 0.40 higher in both those seasons. He's years removed from putting up a decent ERA+ and eons away from being a pitcher worth more than 2-3M per season as a back of the rotation Innings-eater.

Unless Milton becomes a completely different pitcher, this deal is three times worse than the Cory Lidle signing last year and more like 10x worse because if Milton performs as he has been, he's ours for three seasons at a salary that's virtually unmoveable.

I know you're trying to be positive, tr. I just don't see it though.

Moreso than being positive, it just seems that it is fair to show there are things to like about a particular player that might give the Reds reason to sign a person to that type of contract. In this case, there is the nice K rate and decent WHIP that give some hope. Now, $25M over three years is throwing caution to the wind with the likes of Milton, so DanO better be right on why he thinks he's worth that kind of contract in the perspective of keeping his job.

Also, MWM pointed out when Clement was signed that it probably didn't matter what the Reds bid for him, they would not outbid the Red Sox. With that thought, I think comparing this transaction to what was available is not something we are privy to. I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they made similar offers to the likes of a Clement or Perez, who are choosing to go another direction. That's the way it is with Free Agency.

redsfan30
12-27-2004, 04:38 PM
MWM, how do you propose we make this team a contender? Odalis Perez would have been a very, very nice signing. But he's not coming, so it's time to move on.

How would you fix the bullpen with what is out there?

Who would you have brought in to play third out of what is out there?

I'm not saying these moves are going to put the Reds ahead of the pack in MLB, but I think it is a start in the right direction.

Krusty
12-27-2004, 04:41 PM
Not true. I know I'd be thrilled if they made moves that moved them in the direction of a contender either now or in the future. The moves that have been made are TEMPORARY and MARGINAL improvements that will not contribute to a playoff berth ANYTIME. I can go in the opposite direction as your comment above and say that "no matter what, you can satisfy some posters here simply by making moves."

The moves they have made are with the intention of winning next season while not mortgaging the future away.

The Reds have learned the hard way by being burned by Junior's contract. Now you bring in guys for a year or two and buy time for the youngsters in the system develop without rushing them.

You tell me that we will sign three relievers, two starters and a third baseman and only give up a minor league pitcher.....that isn't too shabby. We still have Kearns, Dunn and Pena while Enarncion doesn't have to rush through the system.

The intent is to win next season without mortgaging the future. There is nothing wrong with that.

MWM
12-27-2004, 04:42 PM
I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they made similar offers to the likes of a Clement or Perez, who are choosing to go another direction.

You could very well be right. But if they couldn't get the guys that were really worth the money, they should have just stopped shopping. Settling for less return but making the same investment is poor business. I'd have rather that they didn't sign a FA pitcher than shell out $25 million to the likes of Milton. If you ask three girls to the prom and get rejected by all three, maybe you just shouldn't go rather than spend $100 for a tux, and $100 for dinner only to wind up taking your cousin. Or in this case, taking the date no one else wanted.

Appalachian Red
12-27-2004, 04:42 PM
I'll join the group that's just thankful that the Reds finally seem interested in competing. You have to overpay to obtain free-agent pitching - period. I'm encouraged that we enter this spring with a competitive ballclub. IMO, the only negative with the Milton signing is that we possibly constrain moves for 2006 and 2007. Cincinnati will never be a free-spender but I would feel better if we moved from "small market" to "middle market" in payrolls. Hopefully the Milton signing means the Reds FO is ready to put a playoff contending team on the field again. I'm substantially more encouraged at our potential this spring as opposed to Spring of '04.

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 04:42 PM
Moreso than being positive, it just seems that it is fair to show there are things to like about a particular player that might give the Reds reason to sign a person to that type of contract.

Oh. Ok. Yeah, I agree. It means that they're looking at the wrong things, but I agree with what you're saying, tr.

wheels
12-27-2004, 04:43 PM
I'm not saying these moves are going to put the Reds ahead of the pack in MLB, but I think it is a start in the right direction.

I don't believe that signing bad pitchers to bad contracts is a step in the right direction.

It is what it is....Another bad contract. Worse than the Danny Graves contract, worse than the Cory Lidle deal.

Unless Milton can buck career norms and keep the ball in the park, this could be the contract that really sinks the ship.

traderumor
12-27-2004, 04:44 PM
I can be satisfied....Bring in a good pitcher, or deal off some guys for good prospects. Spend money wisely.

It's not brain surgery.

I think it was Steel's sig at one time. If hitting is so easy, why do so many suck at it? I'd say the same thing with putting together a winning franchise.

Doesn't excuse stupidity, but it is quite evident that it isn't easy. If it were, there wouldn't be a need for the Yankees to spend $180M just to make it to the playoffs.

We only think its simple because we freely use hindsight and consider all moves as possible and its just a matter of making the right choice. But then, companies are full of employees who always think they could run the company better than the bosses. They would be the one's starting all the failed small businesses in this country.

Edit.

Honestly, I used to think it was easy until I played in a salary simulation league once. Basically, we had an annual salary cap, and you could sign multi year contracts, so you also had to project future performance. I barely missed the wildcard with a moneyball approach with respect to doubles, paying modest dollars to guys who had 20-30 homers and were among the leaders in doubles. Also, with pitching, passed over the big names and tried to sign guys with good years but without the sexy stats, like slightly above average K rates, low walk rates and above average ERAs and low HRs allowed. Then, all my pitchers had bad years and I was shot the next season. Not to mention the time spent just to get a decent team pulled together. In short, the experience was humbling and made me realize that putting together a good MLB franchise year after year is not child's play.

flyer85
12-27-2004, 04:44 PM
Hhow do you propose we make this team a contender?

For 2005 they are now 4 to 5 players unlikely to perform to the level of their contracts. Overpaying 1 or 2 generally cannot be avoided and overpaying a little is not a bad thing as long as that is offset with a number of underpaid players. However having three nasty contracts(Jr, Graves, and now Milton) is not the way to get to the promised land if you are a small market club.

There is no way a small market team can win unless they are underpaying the majority of their players.

What happens if the Reds decide to cut payroll in 2006 and Milton becomes untradeable.

Would you like to wave goodbye to Dunn and Kearns because they are overpaying Milton?

MWM
12-27-2004, 04:44 PM
The moves they have made are with the intention of winning next season while not mortgaging the future away.

How is $25MM over three years not mortgagin the future?

[/QUOTE]

letsgojunior
12-27-2004, 04:45 PM
$25.5 M

wheels
12-27-2004, 04:46 PM
[B]

The intent is to win next season without mortgaging the future. There is nothing wrong with that.


What are they going to "win", per se?

SYCMiniBus
12-27-2004, 04:46 PM
I don't believe that signing bad pitchers to bad contracts is a step in the right direction.

It is what it is....Another bad contract. Worse than the Danny Graves contract, worse than the Cory Lidle deal.

Unless Milton can buck career norms and keep the ball in the park, this could be the contract that really sinks the ship.

This is not worse then the Gravey deal, this contract is worth 200 pretty good innings each season. And his career normas are average Danny's are well below average for a closer. It is not a great deal but it isnt horrible. The sky is not falling. He has been a pretty solid pitcher and should be in the prime of his career right now. Lets all take a deep breath and relax.

wheels
12-27-2004, 04:47 PM
$25.5 M

Thank you very much.

Let's not lose sight of this figure.

wheels
12-27-2004, 04:49 PM
This is not worse then the Gravey deal, this contract is worth 200 pretty good innings each season. And his career normas are average Danny's are well below average for a closer. It is not a great deal but it isnt horrible. The sky is not falling. He has been a pretty solid pitcher and should be in the prime of his career right now. Lets all take a deep breath and relax.

I would disagree with the notion that he is a solid pitcher.

That's where the failure to communicate begins.

I just can't see where he's a solid pitcher.

flyer85
12-27-2004, 04:49 PM
This is not worse then the Gravey deal

That is true.

After 2005 graves is off the books and gone. I am guessing the $4M signing bonus went against the 2004 books. So in 2006 the $6M to graves goes away only to be replaced with $8.5M to Milton. I hope his ERA is better than that career 4.76.

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 04:49 PM
The moves they have made are with the intention of winning next season while not mortgaging the future away.

Oh, I don't doubt that the "intention of winning" is there.

Kinda' like a guy who plays blackjack has the "intention of winning" money when he hits on a 17 when the dealer has a 6 showing.

Intent doesn't count for anything when one's brain isn't firmly connected to their wallet.

And if you want to see futures mortgaged away, run a franchise the way O'Brien's running his- high risk/low reward moves that are like attempting to fill the Grand Canyon with a single shovel of dirt.

We're at the point now where the wheels are spinning in such a volatile manner that friction is bound to wear some of the future away.

letsgojunior
12-27-2004, 04:50 PM
wheels, I've got to say your performance on this thread has been nothing short of spectacular.

pedro
12-27-2004, 04:51 PM
That's a lot of money. At least he'll eat innings and perhaps he'll come into his own. Lefties are weird that way. Can't say I'd be putting my head on the block for Eric Milton if I was Mr. Dan O'Brien.

redsfan30
12-27-2004, 04:51 PM
How is $25MM over three years not mortgagin the future?

[/QUOTE]
I could see both sides of the arguement there. If they are turning over a new leaf, then maybe money is not as big of an issue as it once was. This is a three year deal. We are not stuck with him for 10 years if he doesn't work out. He is left handed with some talent which means he would be tradeable to someone if the Reds ever so desired.

If this is just an aboration, and money is still tight around these parts then yes, this might hinder the near future. But once again, this is a three year deal, not a 10 year deal.

Jpup
12-27-2004, 04:52 PM
Let's wait and see what he does before saying it's a bad contract. You might not look so smart in October.

wheels
12-27-2004, 04:53 PM
Those three years can seem mighty long when balls start to leave the yard.

redsfan30
12-27-2004, 04:53 PM
Let's wait and see what he does before saying it's a bad contract. You might not look so smart in October.
Of course myself and some of the others who are supporting the deal might not look so smart in October.

I don't look to good to many right now.

wheels
12-27-2004, 04:54 PM
Let's wait and see what he does before saying it's a bad contract. You might not look so smart in October.


October?

I hope you're right.

October....

Why do I feel like Jim Mora right now?

Playoffs?!

OldCat
12-27-2004, 04:54 PM
Might also be that making some creditable moves now might make Dunn easier to sign a Long term deal if it seems there might be playoffs here in the future instead of a lot of fourth place finishes

redsfan30
12-27-2004, 04:58 PM
October?

I hope you're right.

October....

Why do I feel like Jim Mora right now?

Playoffs?!
Playoffs??? What are you talking about, PLAYOFFS?

Red Leader
12-27-2004, 04:59 PM
I just can't see where he's a solid pitcher.

I can't figure out if Milton is a lucky pitcher, or an unlucky pitcher.

He's unlucky in the fact that his batting average against isn't bad and his K/BB, K/IP ratios aren't bad. His SLG% against is terrible though, which makes his ERA high. So I guess you could say he's unlucky because he probably gives up like 6 baserunners a game, and they all score, yet he's lucky in that his win% and run support are always extremely high no matter how bad he gets hit. I had him on one of my fantasy teams last year and he would have games where he was flat out dominant, and others where he would get hit pretty hard, but he still managed to win because he had a good offense behind him.

Lucky?? / Unlucky?? I'm not sure. But for $25.5 over 3 years, I should know.

traderumor
12-27-2004, 05:00 PM
Now, as I try to give Milton my best optimistic outlook, I remember distinctly that DanO said they would not be signing high priced free agent pitchers. Am I overstating that the way he said it was that they would not be doing that? Signing the likes of Eric Milton to a $25M contract is something we make fun of the Yankees and Mets for doing.

camisadelgolf
12-27-2004, 05:05 PM
A lot of people seem to be freaking out over the homeruns Milton gives up, which is understandable, but I find (granted, only a small amount) consolation in the fact that the Great American Ballpark is supposed to be tailored toward left-handed hitters, and Milton's a left-handed pitcher that pitchers better against lefties.

Additionally, if you look at the stats, he pretty much seems like a younger, left-handed version of Brett Tomko, but I think the difference is that Milton has significantly more upside.

I think the Reds could have done better, but I'm excited about the signing nonetheless.

camisadelgolf
12-27-2004, 05:07 PM
One more thing: Milton has a 1.65 ERA over 16.3 innings in the playoffs.

GriffeyFan
12-27-2004, 05:07 PM
I think it's a decent signing. The Reds signed a free agent for more than $4-5M...when's the last time that happened?

Seriously, the market is what it is. You can't get a decent left starter for $5 m a year. You just can't. I just can't believe the Reds actually spent $8M on a guy.

It's a step in the right direction. He's only 29 too. The other guys signed have all been 35 or older. This looks like a .500 to slightly above .500 team as currently constructed.

Puffy
12-27-2004, 05:17 PM
One more thing: Milton has a 1.65 ERA over 16.3 innings in the playoffs.

That is great - when the Reds make the playoffs in 2012 he should start Games 1, 4 and 7!!!

Sorry, couldn't resist :devil:

Red Thunder
12-27-2004, 05:17 PM
Seriously, the market is what it is. You can't get a decent left starter for $5 m a year. You just can't. I just can't believe the Reds actually spent $8M on a guy.


Add to that the question which other above average free agent starting pitchers are still available (lefthanders?) who would be willing to sign with the Reds for the same amount. From my knowledge Millwood signed with the Indians, didn't he? That just leaves Perez and ... Derek Lowe?

Milton is certainly an improvement to the rotation. If this justifies the price, we'll see. That he breaks up an all right handed rotation (with Claussen staying at AAA) is a good thing.

traderumor
12-27-2004, 05:17 PM
Maybe Milton will be Schourek, part deaux for Gully? :mhcky21:

I can think of 25M reasons that we can only hope so.

Redny
12-27-2004, 05:17 PM
Before spending 25.5 million on a starting pitcher it is likely that, the management looked at all the available options, then checked with multiple sources to get an opinion. Those sources would include the scouting staff, the manager, the pitching coach, and some consultants outside of the organization. Then after all of that, they would have come up with a plan on who to go after. So either they didn't want Perez, Millwood, or Clement, or were turned down, or a combination of the two. It sure looks like the Reds chose Milton over Perez though, because I would think Perez would have signed for the money Milton got. So I guess I will have to trust in thier decision because they are much better informed than I am. I am looking forward to this season more than I have for several years, and that is what it's all about.

traderumor
12-27-2004, 05:19 PM
Add to that the question which other above average free agent starting pitchers are still available (lefthanders?) who would be willing to sign with the Reds for the same amount. From my knowledge Millwood signed with the Indians, didn't he? That just leaves Perez and ... Derek Lowe?

Milton is certainly an improvement to the rotation. If this justifies the price, we'll see. That he breaks up an all right handed rotation (with Claussen staying at AAA) is a good thing.Just curious, Red Thunder, how you could so adamant about how bad an idea trading for Ortiz was, yet you seem to be willing to accept this pricey acquisition. What gives?

Falls City Beer
12-27-2004, 05:25 PM
When the smoke all clears, the guy really has only had one atrocious season. Trouble is, it's last season. However, many of the Phillies pitchers complained about the new stadium (and folks, it is a bandbox, no doubt about it--way worse than GAB), so it could be last season was the anomaly. I guess I'm going back and forth on this.

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 05:25 PM
and Milton's a left-handed pitcher that pitchers better against lefties.

Over the past three seasons, Eric Milton's OPS Against versus LH hitters is .921.

Left handed hitters have clubbed him senseless.

MartyFan
12-27-2004, 05:27 PM
Over the past three seasons, Eric Milton's OPS Against versus LH hitters is .921.

Left handed hitters have clubbed him senseless.


That is comforting...way to bring out the warm fuzzies. LOL

Jpup
12-27-2004, 05:28 PM
Over the past three seasons, Eric Milton's OPS Against versus LH hitters is .921.

Left handed hitters have clubbed him senseless.

Lefties hit .252 against him last year. I wouldn't call that clubbing him senseless. Perez allowed lefties to hit .270 against him last year. I guess it just depends on what stats you want to choose.

corkedbat
12-27-2004, 05:30 PM
This thread is so funny...

From the thread: "Sounds like we have some inside info (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30652)":

I don't even know what to say, given his comments in this thread where he's going gaga over another terrible signing by the Reds. The discrepency between his comments pretty much speaks volumes about his credibility and the fact that he will blindly support any move the Reds' front office makes, even if it completely contradicts something he said just a couple of days earlier. My predicition is that this contract will cripple the Reds in future years and then we'll hear the "We have no money" mantra again.

Boss

Bingo! Boss. Your post distills my worries about this and the other pitching moves this FO has made this offseason.

I have been very critical of the Reds Management in the past - not so much because they don't spend enough money, but the way in which they spend the dollars when they finally do open the bank.

I will give them credit for actually stepping up and spending some cash, but if the figures for Milton are correct - Damn!

They have given it a shot, but they spent a lot of jack on iffy pitchers and spread it out over the next two or three years. If these signings blowup in hteir faces, it won't happen again soon.

I want the Reds to succeed. I hope, I hope, I hope, I hope I'm wrong and these signings actually succeed. I hope they help the team post a winning record and contend, but I'm highly dubious. I'm afraid mthat this will do little more than keep us at the top of the bottom of the division - way too high a price to pay.

Spending money is one nice, but when it's as rare a comodity as it is with the Reds - spending it wisely is much more important. I can't hlep but think that htere are more than a couple of GMs oujt there that could take the $$$$ spent for Milton, Ortiz, Wilson and Weathers and come up with better results.

I hope the talk of dealing Dunn is dead. This staff is more than likely going to need all of the offensive support it can get.

The nightmare scenario in all of this, is that these recent signees fare as poorly as many here fear and keep the Reds from making other moves - like signing Adam Dunn to an LTC.

Puffy
12-27-2004, 05:31 PM
Lefties hit .252 against him last year. I wouldn't call that clubbing him senseless. Perez allowed lefties to hit .270 against him last year. I guess it just depends on what stats you want to choose.

Batting average versus OPS?? That is an argument your gonna lose.....

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 05:32 PM
Lefties hit .252 against him last year. I wouldn't call that clubbing him senseless. Perez allowed lefties to hit .270 against him last year. I guess it just depends on what stats you want to choose.

2002- .345 OBP Against, .622 SLG Against
2004- .336 OBP Against, .521 SLG Against

Clubbed.

Senseless.

MWM
12-27-2004, 05:34 PM
Over the past three seasons, Eric Milton's OPS Against versus LH hitters is .921.

Left handed hitters have clubbed him senseless.

yOu caN mAKe StatS sAy aNYThiNg yOu WaNt tHEM to SAy. yoU sHoulD noT SpeNd so MucH tiMe LOokIng aT sprEadSheeTs inSteaD oF acTuaLly WatcHing The gaMes bEcauSe yOu caN leArN EveryThinG yOu NEed to KnoW aboUt baSebaLl by watChIng The gaMes. sTats aRe ruIniNg tHE gaMe. WeLl, that aNd The pLayErs Not weaRiNg StiRrups.

g0 rEds.

cincinnati chili
12-27-2004, 05:34 PM
With the $, I would lay a sawbuck down that Perez and Clement rebuffed our advances. We overpaid, still not sure I'd go as far as RotoWorld considering the Benson contract. It's at least a tie.

You could be right. But I also heard that Clement had family in Pennsylvania, and wanted to sign as close to home as possible. Anybody else hear this? This would presumably give us an ADVANTAGE over the Red Sox.

O'Brien may have been a Rhodes scholar, and his daddy may have been a GM, but this is the final straw to convince me that he's not a bright baseball man.

I'd rather have Kris Benson. At least if Kris Benson exceeds expectations, he can't walk away at the end of the contract. I agree with those who say that this will be used as an excuse for not locking up Adam Dunn. Therefore, it probably the worst signing of the off-season.

Milton's support-neutral, park adjusted record:

2004 - 10.5 wins, 12.6 losses (bad year)
2003 - 1.4 wins, 0.5 losses (hurt almost all year)
2002 - 9.4 wins, 11 losses (bad year)
2001 - 12.5 wins, 12.4 losses (mediocre year)
2000 - 9.6 wins, 14.6 losses (bad year)
1999 - 11.5 wins, 13.4 losses (bad year)
1998 - 8.3 wins, 13.4 losses (bad year)

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/exp_wl_pitcher1999.html


25.5 million guaranteed dollars to a guy who has never had a single good year

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 05:35 PM
LOL!

Marvelous post, chili!!! :MandJ:

Jpup
12-27-2004, 05:36 PM
Take away last September and his 1 start in October and he was 13-3. I just don't understand why wins don't seem to matter to a lot of you guys.

Kc61
12-27-2004, 05:38 PM
Reds now have 3 veteran starters, each of whom has had success in the major leagues. Can hold competition for other two spots among young kids. This seems like the major leagues to me. Finally.

Yeah, it might have been better to get Clement or Perez. But this is a huge step in the right direction. And they got some major league relievers, too.

It cost a lot, but as a fan I'm not that interested in the dollars. Much more interested in the totally reconstructed pitching staff.

Major league pitching. On the Reds. Unreal.

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 05:38 PM
Take away last September and his 1 start in October and he was 13-3. I just don't understand why wins don't seem to matter to a lot of you guys.

Because Wins are simply event outcome assignment records. They're team-dependant outcomes to boot. Simply not a good evaluation method for Starting Pitchers.

Wins trick us into assigning credit to a pitcher when his offense may actually be responsible for the team winning the game.

Very bad.

Jpup
12-27-2004, 05:39 PM
Reds now have 3 veteran starters, each of whom has had success in the major leagues. Can hold competition for other two spots among young kids. This seems like the major leagues to me. Finally.

Yeah, it might have been better to get Clement or Perez. But this is a huge step in the right direction. And they got some major league relievers, too.

It cost a lot, but as a fan I'm not that interested in the dollars. Much more interested in the totally reconstructed pitching staff.

Major league pitching. On the Reds. Unreal.

:agreed: I'm tired of watching these minor league scrubs that the Reds have been running out there for the past several seasons.

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 05:40 PM
Take away last September and his 1 start in October and he was 13-3. I just don't understand why wins don't seem to matter to a lot of you guys.
because we understand the concept of personal rate stats and run support, therefore making wins by a pitcher almost strictly a function of his offense?

TRF
12-27-2004, 05:40 PM
Take away last September and his 1 start in October and he was 13-3. I just don't understand why wins don't seem to matter to a lot of you guys.

Because wins are a byproduct of things a pitcher cannot control. like his own team's offense.

Jimmy Haynes once won 15 games. Do you want him in the rotation?

MWM
12-27-2004, 05:41 PM
Take away last September and his 1 start in October and he was 13-3. I just don't understand why wins don't seem to matter to a lot of you guys.

Take away my beer gut, my big nose, and my lack of heigth, and I'm Brad Pitt.

:mhcky21:

Krusty
12-27-2004, 05:42 PM
Problem is four straight losing seasons have become the norm for Reds fans.

Sign a free agent starting pitcher for 25 million? The thought!

Anyone ask the Reds if they thought they overpaid for Milton? Maybe they saw something in Milton that could be corrected and make him a better pitcher.

And if you thought Milton was a bad contract, what is Junior's contract? At least we aren't committed to it for 10 years when he is on the DL more than on the field. When Junior was acquired, you thought it was the greatest signing the Reds ever did. And the Milton contract gets blasted before he even pitches a game?

Go figure.

Redny
12-27-2004, 05:42 PM
Wins its what its all about. I don't care about most of the other stats. Ortiz and Milton have both had good W/L records over the last 4-5 years. They seem to pitch well enough to stay ahead and get the win. There are several pitchers who have signed (and will sign) this off-season who just can't seem to get the win, but have good stats otherwise. Give me the win everytime.

Red Leader
12-27-2004, 05:42 PM
Take away my beer gut, my big nose, and my lack of heigth, and I'm Brad Pitt.

:mhcky21:

:MandJ:

I'm still Horatio Sans. :p:

Jpup
12-27-2004, 05:43 PM
because we understand the concept of personal rate stats and run support, therefore making wins by a pitcher almost strictly a function of his offense?

ok. I understand what you are saying, but I still think that Wins are also a factor. Why is 300 wins the benchmark for the Hall of Fame? Someone, somewhere believes that wins mean a whole lot.

Team Clark
12-27-2004, 05:43 PM
So I guess the Reds will win 75 games this year??? Hopefully with the bullpen being upgraded (or aged) we can win 85 games.

Jpup
12-27-2004, 05:43 PM
So I guess the Reds will win 75 games this year??? Hopefully with the bullpen being upgraded (or aged) we can win 85 games.

90-72 with a good shot at the wildcard if they can stay healthy.

TRF
12-27-2004, 05:44 PM
Problem is four straight losing seasons have become the norm for Reds fans.

Sign a free agent starting pitcher for 25 million? The thought!

Anyone ask the Reds if they thought they overpaid for Milton? Maybe they saw something in Milton that could be corrected and make him a better pitcher.

And if you thought Milton was a bad contract, what is Junior's contract? At least we aren't committed to it for 10 years when he is on the DL more than on the field. When Junior was acquired, you thought it was the greatest signing the Reds ever did. And the Milton contract gets blasted before he even pitches a game?

Go figure.

Are you honestly comparing KGJ of 1999 to the eric milton of 2004?

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 05:45 PM
Problem is four straight losing seasons have become the norm for Reds fans.

Well lucky us, because they're working on #5 as we speak.


Maybe they saw something in Milton that could be corrected and make him a better pitcher.

We now call this the "Don Gullett Myth". You don't pay nearly 9M per season in the HOPE that you'll make a pitcher "better".


And if you thought Milton was a bad contract, what is Junior's contract? At least we aren't committed to it for 10 years when he is on the DL more than on the field. When Junior was acquired, you thought it was the greatest signing the Reds ever did. And the Milton contract gets blasted before he even pitches a game?

Eric Milton apples, pleased to introduce you to Ken Griffey Junior oranges. Junior signed a below-market value contract at the time and was something Milton is not- a PERFORMER. Big BIG difference.

Red Leader
12-27-2004, 05:45 PM
I will say 84 wins is what I'm expecting next year. 84-82. Improvement from last year: yep. Playoff hopes: uh-uh.

MartyFan
12-27-2004, 05:45 PM
Do you supose the Reds got caught playing a leverage game between Milton and Milwood?

Do we still need a Millwood? Are we ready to go for the season?

MWM
12-27-2004, 05:46 PM
Wins its what its all about. I don't care about most of the other stats. Ortiz and Milton have both had good W/L records over the last 4-5 years. They seem to pitch well enough to stay ahead and get the win. There are several pitchers who have signed (and will sign) this off-season who just can't seem to get the win, but have good stats otherwise. Give me the win everytime.

Walt Jocketty offers prayers of thanksgiving everyday that this is believed even by some people in baseball.

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 05:47 PM
Wins its what its all about. I don't care about most of the other stats. Ortiz and Milton have both had good W/L records over the last 4-5 years. They seem to pitch well enough to stay ahead and get the win. There are several pitchers who have signed (and will sign) this off-season who just can't seem to get the win, but have good stats otherwise. Give me the win everytime.

Give Eric Milton 6.54 Runs per game in support.

Take 3.00 Runs per game away from that.

He'll record fewer Wins with the same OPS Against and ERA.

Is he really a worse pitcher though?

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 05:47 PM
ok. I understand what you are saying, but I still think that Wins are also a factor. Why is 300 wins the benchmark for the Hall of Fame? Someone, somewhere believes that wins mean a whole lot.
mainly it shows longevity. also it requires to win consistantly, which is nearly impossible to do if you suck. like an Eric Milton.

MWM
12-27-2004, 05:48 PM
ok. I understand what you are saying, but I still think that Wins are also a factor. Why is 300 wins the benchmark for the Hall of Fame? Someone, somewhere believes that wins mean a whole lot.

Sample sizes. If a guy wins that many games over a career, then he's a great pitcher in almost all cases. A guy can win 13 or 14 over a couple of years by getting lucky, You can't get lucky over 500-600 starts in a career.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2004, 05:48 PM
"2002 - 9.4 wins, 11 losses (bad year)
2001 - 12.5 wins, 12.4 losses (mediocre year)"

Fine stats; reductive conclusions.

2001--Good year--all the peripherals were very good to excellent, ERA above average.

2002--Solid year--again nice peripherals, ERA off a bit. .724 OPS against is good.

The same people making sweeping negative judgments about this signing also pimped Miguel Batista last offseason--well, that didn't work out--in fact, Lidle ended up having a better season. I'm just sayin'--if they guy can do what he did in 2001-2002, he'll help the Reds.

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 05:50 PM
I'm just sayin'--if they guy can do what he did in 2001-2002, he'll help the Reds.
so you like Ortiz then?

Puffy
12-27-2004, 05:50 PM
I will say 84 wins is what I'm expecting next year. 84-82. Improvement from last year: yep. Playoff hopes: uh-uh.

Wow, the Reds are playing 166 games next year??

MWM
12-27-2004, 05:50 PM
I predict 74-88, two games worse than 2004. The Reds beat their Pythagorean win total by a good amount last year. It's not likely to happen again, IMO.

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 05:52 PM
"2002 - 9.4 wins, 11 losses (bad year)
2001 - 12.5 wins, 12.4 losses (mediocre year)"

Fine stats; reductive conclusions.

2001--Good year--all the peripherals were very good to excellent, ERA above average.

2002--Solid year--again nice peripherals, ERA off a bit. .724 OPS against is good.

The same people making sweeping negative judgments about this signing also pimped Miguel Batista last offseason--well, that didn't work out--in fact, Lidle ended up having a better season. I'm just sayin'--if they guy can do what he did in 2001-2002, he'll help the Reds.

And I'd still rather have Miguel Batista than either Cory Lidle or Eric Milton, particularly at Batista's price tag (@4.0M per season).

At least we have evidence that Batista will rebound (BB rate mysteriously incresed last year, and allowed nearly half as many HR as Milton while pitching in a park about as conducive to the ball).

You're reaching.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 05:53 PM
Wow, the Reds are playing 166 games next year??

Hey....we can hope :D

Falls City Beer
12-27-2004, 05:53 PM
so you like Ortiz then?

Ortiz had virtually none of the peripherals Milton had in those respective seasons.

Puffy
12-27-2004, 05:53 PM
I think the Reds can win 90 next year. But only because Red Leader has added four games to the schedule.

Red Thunder
12-27-2004, 05:55 PM
Just curious, Red Thunder, how you could so adamant about how bad an idea trading for Ortiz was, yet you seem to be willing to accept this pricey acquisition. What gives?

I'm not yet decided on the matter. Currently I'm leaning more to like it, despite the high price, simply as it makes the Reds more competitive (which was not the case with the Ortiz trade) and allows Claussen to stay in the minors for another year. The main aim of my previous post was to share GriffeyFan's sentiments about the high market prices for free agent starting pitchers.

What I don't like (as so many other posters) is that the Reds paid too much money for Milton. I would have prefered that either Clement or Perez were signed for the same amount. Question is, would they have agreed to join the Reds (Clement obviously not - Perez, who knows). Derek Lowe would have been a worse signing, in my opinion. Millwood not a better one (based and judged on last years stats, worse). So which pitchers were actually left for the same $$$ amount Milton got?

Things I like about Milton compared to Ortiz:
- younger and in his prime (29 years old)
- much more durable
- better K-rate
- better K-BB rate
- better WHIP (especially when you subtract Ortiz' relief outings)
- lower batting average against
- doesn't have the same downward trend as Ortiz (ERA)
- lefthander
- Reds didn't part with one of their better (top?) pitching prospects

Interesting fact to consider:
Milton made $ 9 mil. with the Phillies in 2004.
I think he would not have gotten (much) less money from another team.

Still, it's amazing that he will make much more money than Paul Wilson who posted a better ERA in comparison. He is overpaid - on the other hand I like that he improves the Reds rotation which could make them a wildcard contender.

In case Milton continues to pitch at the level he did in the past, I have little doubt that the Reds can always trade him to a contender. So getting rid of his contract, if needed, should not be a problem.

Red Leader
12-27-2004, 05:56 PM
Wow, the Reds are playing 166 games next year??

yEA, tHeY hAvE tO MaKE uP tHE TwO rAInOuTs fRom 2004 :rolleyes:

AnD 2 mOre fRom 2003.


gO rEdZ!! :all_cohol

Boss-Hog
12-27-2004, 05:57 PM
Well said. I completely agree with that.


Bingo! Boss. Your post distills my worries about this and the other pitching moves this FO has made this offseason.

I have been very critical of the Reds Management in the past - not so much because they don't spend enough money, but the way in which they spend the dollars when they finally do open the bank.

I will give them credit for actually stepping up and spending some cash, but if the figures for Milton are correct - Damn!

They have given it a shot, but they spent a lot of jack on iffy pitchers and spread it out over the next two or three years. If these signings blowup in hteir faces, it won't happen again soon.

I want the Reds to succeed. I hope, I hope, I hope, I hope I'm wrong and these signings actually succeed. I hope they help the team post a winning record and contend, but I'm highly dubious. I'm afraid mthat this will do little more than keep us at the top of the bottom of the division - way too high a price to pay.

Spending money is one nice, but when it's as rare a comodity as it is with the Reds - spending it wisely is much more important. I can't hlep but think that htere are more than a couple of GMs oujt there that could take the $$$$ spent for Milton, Ortiz, Wilson and Weathers and come up with better results.

I hope the talk of dealing Dunn is dead. This staff is more than likely going to need all of the offensive support it can get.

The nightmare scenario in all of this, is that these recent signees fare as poorly as many here fear and keep the Reds from making other moves - like signing Adam Dunn to an LTC.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2004, 05:57 PM
And I'd still rather have Miguel Batista than either Cory Lidle or Eric Milton, particularly at Batista's price tag (@4.0M per season).

At least we have evidence that Batista will rebound (BB rate mysteriously incresed last year, and allowed nearly half as many HR as Milton while pitching in a park about as conducive to the ball).

You're reaching.

How weird is this?

You're defending pimping a guy who had a K/BB ratio of 104/96 and an OPS Against of .785 last season--and 33 years old.

Rebound?

Who's reaching again?

double2gap
12-27-2004, 05:58 PM
Hi gang,

I am new to this board, however I have visited this board many times over the past year. I have been impressed with the overall knowledge and informative conversations here. Unlike other boards, where the name of the game is to trash talk anyone and everyone.

My take on the Milton signing is I think it was too much money to spend on him, however I am still thrilled to have. Some on this board are concerned with the # of HR's he give up, but if you look at the breakdown it tells another story. Of the 43 HR's given up, 25 are solo shots, 14 are 2-run shots, and only 4 are 3-run shot (0 grand slams). This tells me that he either tends to lose concentration when no one is on base or he would rather groove one than walk a hitter and make the hitter earn his way on. It also seems that he is tough when there are runners on. Hopefully, Gully can make a few adjustments to improve concentration or location. Either way he is as good as or better than we have now.

I am glad to see the FO finally realize that people will not come to the park unless you show them that you want to win. Are all the move they have made going to make us a contender? Probably not, but we are a better team and we will have (barring a injury plagued season) a better record than last year.

Puffy
12-27-2004, 06:01 PM
Hi gang,

I am new to this board, however I have visited this board many times over the past year. I have been impressed with the overall knowledge and informative conversations here. Unlike other boards, where the name of the game is to trash talk anyone and everyone.

My take on the Milton signing is I think it was too much money to spend on him, however I am still thrilled to have. Some on this board are concerned with the # of HR's he give up, but if you look at the breakdown it tells another story. Of the 43 HR's given up, 25 are solo shots, 14 are 2-run shots, and only 4 are 3-run shot (0 grand slams). This tells me that he either tends to lose concentration when no one is on base or he would rather groove one than walk a hitter and make the hitter earn his way on. It also seems that he is tough when there are runners on. Hopefully, Gully can make a few adjustments to improve concentration or location. Either way he is as good as or better than we have now.

I am glad to see the FO finally realize that people will not come to the park unless you show them that you want to win. Are all the move they have made going to make us a contender? Probably not, but we are a better team and we will have (barring a injury plagued season) a better record than last year.

Welcome to the board!!

Red Thunder
12-27-2004, 06:02 PM
Some on this board are concerned with the # of HR's he give up, but if you look at the breakdown it tells another story. Of the 43 HR's given up, 25 are solo shots, 14 are 2-run shots, and only 4 are 3-run shot (0 grand slams).

Interesting fact, thanks for bringing it up!

Welcome to the board and keep on adding to the discussions!

double2gap
12-27-2004, 06:03 PM
Thanks, I'm not the type to post contiually, but I will visit ofton to see what other reds fans have to say.

IslandRed
12-27-2004, 06:04 PM
Not much left to say here, but I'll toss in my pennies:

* Too much money, but we knew we'd have to overpay for whoever we got. Frankly, the way the market has gone this winter, the Paul Wilson signing is one of the bigger bargains going. Combined with Milton's deal, I guess we're paying the going rate for league-average-ish pitching. I'd rather see above-average, but given where we've been, league average would be a considerable improvement. We also have some innings eaters so maybe we won't kill the bullpen by the All-Star break like we usually do.

* I'll give the front office props for spending some money to put a more watchable baseball team on the field next season.

* We haven't meaningfully improved our chances of being a playoff team anytime soon, unless we have one of those everything-goes-right years. But to those saying we should have saved the money for a deadline deal -- we needed to sign a starter AND have him pitch well, or else the only deadline deals we were going to make would be as a seller, not a buyer.

* I also don't think we did anything crippling unless Milton just totally blows up. No top prospects are being blocked (to the extent we have any), and Milton's contract is the only long-term one. I'm in the camp that thinks that locking up Adam Dunn etc. to long-term deals is no more difficult than before, because if we didn't at least show a pulse this winter, why in the world would Dunn want to be locked up by Cincinnati anyway?

CougarQuest
12-27-2004, 06:07 PM
I can't believe we were able to sign Milton for only $8M a year. I thought for sure the Reds would have to pay $12M a year. He took a Reds discount I tell ya. See y'all in October at the games!!!!

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 06:09 PM
Interesting fact, thanks for bringing it up!

Welcome to the board and keep on adding to the discussions!
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=525873#post525873

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 06:10 PM
How weird is this?

You're defending pimping a guy who had a K/BB ratio of 104/96 and an OPS Against of .785 last season--and 33 years old.

Rebound?

Who's reaching again?

And you're pimping a guy who put up worse numbers last year than did Batista AND who put up worse numbers his previous two healthy years than Batista did. Of course, you also compared Milton's signing to Jeff Suppan (again, a value player with better performance than Milton) so I don't know what you're looking at other than K rate only.

I stand by my position that Miguel Batista would have been a good sign before 2004. You appear to think that his 2004 performance is something to hang over my head. I don't. Nor would I hang something over yours had a player you backed previously regressed a season after you supported him for the right reasons.

BTW, Krusty pimped Adrian Beltre about 20,000 times before 2004 which makes him smarter than all of us. So THERE!

:allovrjr:

Falls City Beer
12-27-2004, 06:15 PM
And you're pimping a guy who put up worse numbers last year than did Batista AND who put up worse numbers his previous two healthy years than Batista did. Of course, you also compared Milton's signing to Jeff Suppan (again, a value player with better performance than Milton) so I don't know what you're looking at other than K rate only.

I stand by my position that Miguel Batista would have been a good sign before 2004. You appear to think that his 2004 performance is something to hang over my head. I don't. Nor would I hang something over yours had a player you backed previously regressed a season after you supported him for the right reasons.

BTW, Krusty pimped Adrian Beltre about 20,000 times before 2004 which makes him smarter than all of us. So THERE!

:allovrjr:

Actually I called the deal bad--particularly in light of the money. But I think Milton has some talent--virtually all of Milton's peripherals have been better than guys like Batista or Suppan.

M2
12-27-2004, 06:15 PM
Real mixed feelings about this one. I like the guiding philosophy of the move -- pay a guy to lead the staff. Problem is that Milton's an unlikely candidate for that. He needs to start pitching a whole lot better to justify this contract.

So it's nice to see DanO finally plant his flag though he could have picked a better spot for it than on the lip of an active volcano.

Mainspark
12-27-2004, 06:20 PM
I think it's fair to assume that if the Reds had the opportunity to sign a pitcher superior in ability to Milton for comparable dollars, they would have done so.
We have to be realistic. Given the state of this franchise in recent seasons, it seems unlikely that that the most coveted of free agents are going to opt to come to Cincinnati.
That could change if the Reds can return to respectability. While I'm less than giddy over the crop of free agents signed in recent weeks, I think next year's team figures to be more competitive than the 2004 edition.
And I'll give the front office credit for at least making an effort to improve weaknesses on the roster. Milton is no Clemens or Randy Johnson, but he's a move up from the days of Jimmy Haynes and Jimmy Anderson.

Caveat Emperor
12-27-2004, 06:24 PM
You could be right. But I also heard that Clement had family in Pennsylvania, and wanted to sign as close to home as possible. Anybody else hear this? This would presumably give us an ADVANTAGE over the Red Sox.

Why would a Free Agent choose a team that hasn't made the playoffs in a decade over the defending World Series Champs if the money was close? Why would Clement turn down a chance to pitch with Curt Schilling in Fenway to go pitch with Paul Wilson at the GABP?

For that matter, why would someone making millions of dollars and looking to enrich his own personal endorsement value choose to come to Cincinnati (media city that it is) to play baseball?

Everyone complains that the Reds aren't signing Adam Dunn to a long term contract...how do you know he isn't just biding his time until he can go back to Texas and sign with the Astros or the Rangers? He might not WANT to come back and continue to play baseball here.

This will shock a ton of people, but I have it on generally good authority that even Sean Casey wanted out and was DISAPPOINTED that the club picked up on his option. He'll never say so, but people I know who are close to the situation have said as much.

Cincinnati is not an attractive place to play baseball, and it will take several signings like this: overpaying players to show a commitment to building a contender, to shed the image of a team trying to compete with minor leaguers and scrubs like the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates.

-CE

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 06:26 PM
Actually I called the deal bad--particularly in light of the money. But I think Milton has some talent--virtually all of Milton's peripherals have been better than guys like Batista or Suppan.

Ok. My bad for overstating your support for the Milton deal.

That being said, I consider HR rate to be one of the big two rate peripherals. That's the crux of my opposition to signing him and one of the main reasons for my support of Batista (whose HR rates had been better than excellent despite playing in a HR park in 'zona).

Just thought I'd lay out some of my reasoning to avoid miscommunication.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 06:28 PM
Some perspective perhaps??

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1953888


http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/cin/news/cin_news.jsp?ymd=20041227&content_id=926174&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp

KYRedsFan
12-27-2004, 06:29 PM
Realizing my expectations have been lowered substantially in recent years thanks to the Reds recent history, I'll say that I've been fairly happy with the offseason to date. We filled holes in the roster that have most recently been filled with double and triple A players, with major league veterans who have produced. We overspent on Milton, but we improved. We're not jumping up any preseason prediction polls likely, but this team is better and should win some more ball games. And as a fan, that makes me happy.

NC Reds fan
12-27-2004, 06:32 PM
Clement is gone. We didn't get him. Be happy we got one of the top pitchers in the market. We could be starting the season with the same starting pitching staff we had last year. Yeah, it's probably too much money but they must see a reason to pay him that. Do you honestly think we could have a chance to win with last year's staff? It would have been nice to have Perez but Minaya I think has him wrapped up with his Dominican connection. I think we did get the next best thing to Clement and Perez.

WVRedsFan
12-27-2004, 06:34 PM
OK...

I've waited until the dust has somewhat cleared to give my opinion (which means no one will read it). I think we improved the team tremendously the last couple of weeks, but at a big cost.

I did my homework and looked up the statistics of Milton, Perez, and Millwood, and I put him in between the two. He's pretty solid in that he can pitch 200 innings per year and allows less hits. That's a start. In his last three full seasons (in 2002, he only made 3 appearances), he's won 42 games or an average of 14 per year. He also has pitched over 200 innings in two of those three years. Each have their weaknesses. Perez also gives up the long ball to the tune of 75 in the last three years. Milton's main achilles heel is the homerun ball, giving up 102 (most of those in 2004-46). Millwood gives up scads of hits--651 in 580 innings over three years. Yet Milton won the most games in the period and only Millwood had more complete games than he did.

The money? I guess since the FO is all of a sudden wanting to spend money, a lot of folks wanted them to spend it on Perez or even Millwood. My totally uneducated guess is that neither would talk to us for one reason or another. Of course, maybe they didn't offer that kind of money to Perez and he turned them down. I don't think there are a lot of people tearing down the door to Great American Ballpark to play here after the last three seasons.

So, yes, it was too much for Milton. It would have been too much for either Perez or Millwood once you get past the legend and look at what they've done, too. But, they have improved the team, and even if I don't like it so much, it will be a better season with Milton and Ortiz on the mound rather than Acevado and the kids.

Did they screw up? Probably, but hey, we're used to that.

Ravenlord
12-27-2004, 06:36 PM
Did they screw up? Probably, but hey, we're used to that.
and truly that's the saddest part of all. :(

jared7817
12-27-2004, 06:50 PM
FINALLY! it begins..... all props go to uncle carl and dan, things are finally looking up

lollipopcurve
12-27-2004, 06:51 PM
All that garbage about O'Brien not having a plan has been compacted. That's a relief. He said from the beginning that the effort would be to improve the staff, and that's what has happened.

I'm looking forward to seeing Milton. He's a pitcher I really haven't seen much of at all. Looks like he relies on his fastball. Anybody know what else he throws, and how well? Maybe he'll be another Browning (who threw a LOT of flyball outs). Steady and reliable. I think if we can make our bullpen into a real strength, we'll compete. Right now my biggest concern is the closer.

I'd like to see the bench shored up a little more. Dustin Mohr would be a great addition. But already it's been a fine offseason.

Big thanks to Ryan and BrooklynRedz for leaking those rumors -- made for a lot of fun, guys!

LetsGoReds11
12-27-2004, 06:56 PM
I'm Thinking To Show Everyone That He Was A Good Sign........Good Sign Meaning He's A Good Pitcher to Get.........Of Course The Money Was Excessive But We Need To Overpay To Get Players To Come Here........I'm Gonna Go Out On A Edge and Say I Think He Will Have A Better Season Then Millwood and Perez..........Hope For The Best

Raisor
12-27-2004, 06:57 PM
My thoughts on the signing:

:dflynn:

redsfan30
12-27-2004, 07:10 PM
What happens if the Reds decide to cut payroll in 2006 and Milton becomes untradeable.
I think Eric Milton would be tradeable no matter what honestly because there is always a market for a lefty starter with a pulse. There are obviously exceptions, but you get my point. Some team will overpay for him. (Hold your fire ;) ).

cincinnati chili
12-27-2004, 07:11 PM
So it's nice to see DanO finally plant his flag though he could have picked a better spot for it than on the lip of an active volcano.

Good one.

Let's not forget that Milton can walk in the third year. So if everything goes right, and DanO was a genius, there's limited payoff.

On the other hand if everything goes wrong, the Reds are on the hook for $25.5 million.

Same thing as Jimmy Haynes, but on a larger scale.

malcontent
12-27-2004, 07:17 PM
My first "gut" instinct is that this is a very good signing.

Reds were going to have to fork over serious dinero to get the likes of Milton.

If Claussen could only deliver we could be in for a surprise.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 07:18 PM
If Claussen could only deliver we could be in for a surprise.

2 lefties in the rotation....a baseball fans dream :D

Spring~Fields
12-27-2004, 07:19 PM
I like the cumulative signings of Milton, Ortiz , David Weathers, Ben Weber, Kent Mercker, and Joe Randa, the Reds paid too much, but they should be more enjoyable and better entertainment than they were last year.

CougarQuest
12-27-2004, 07:20 PM
Now that Dan's ruined the rotation and bullpen, not to mention the left side of the infield, lets see what he can do with the OF.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 07:21 PM
Now that Dan's ruined the rotation and bullpen, not to mention the left side of the infield, lets see what he can do with the OF.

Do I sense sarcasm???

CougarQuest
12-27-2004, 07:27 PM
Do I sense sarcasm???
C'est Moi?

Rocket_Fuel
12-27-2004, 07:27 PM
The Reds will never make some people happy. This is actually a good move. And with the lack of quality pitching out there, if you can't get Pedro or Mulder or Hudson then you have to settle for a #2 like Milton.

WVRedsFan
12-27-2004, 07:28 PM
Of course (and I shudder to think of this), the other shoe might not have dropped. The non-tendering of Jiminez. Or did I miss something?

After having spent as much money as they did today, they will be looking for salary to drop. Is Larue safe?

Falls City Beer
12-27-2004, 07:29 PM
Of course (and I shudder to think of this), the other shoe might not have dropped. The non-tendering of Jiminez. Or did I miss something?

After having spent as much money as they did today, they will be looking for salary to drop. Is Larue safe?

Jimenez and Larue are under contract.

Whether they're traded or not, I can't say. I doubt it.

Rocket_Fuel
12-27-2004, 07:33 PM
The New York freaking Yankees tried to get Milton, and the Dodgers and Red Sox tried to get him. All playoff teams, the Red Sox the defending World Champions, he pitched for the Phillies, a team expected to contend, Casey, Graves, Miley and Wilson thought the guy could help them win, and has playoff experience, a 1.65 ERA in the postseason, and threw a no-hitter, and people are b*tching at the Reds for signing him!? :confused: People will never be happy. Look, the Reds can't go out and outspend the big boys, but they can get pretty close, and this is pretty close! :thumbup: :D

Rocket_Fuel
12-27-2004, 07:35 PM
Of course (and I shudder to think of this), the other shoe might not have dropped. The non-tendering of Jiminez. Or did I miss something?

After having spent as much money as they did today, they will be looking for salary to drop. Is Larue safe?

LaRue was signed to a one year deal and Jimenez was tendered a contract.

Redmachine2003
12-27-2004, 07:37 PM
I believe that Jimenez signed a one year deal not just tendered.

WVRedsFan
12-27-2004, 07:39 PM
I believe that Jimenez signed a one year deal not just tendered.

I remember now. Anyway, i don't feel like the Reds are done for some reason.

Hold on to your hats!

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 07:40 PM
I remember now. Anyway, i don't feel like the Reds are done for some reason.

Hold on to your hats!

I'm still trying to pick my jaw up off of the floor at the fact that the Reds brass is actually trying to put a good team on the field

TRF
12-27-2004, 07:43 PM
I'm still trying to pick my jaw up off of the floor at the fact that the Reds brass is actually trying to put a good team on the field

I'm doing the same in regards to people thinking the Milton and Randa signings are examples of trying to put a good team on the field.

:dflynn:

TeamCasey
12-27-2004, 07:44 PM
This will shock a ton of people, but I have it on generally good authority that even Sean Casey wanted out and was DISAPPOINTED that the club picked up on his option. He'll never say so, but people I know who are close to the situation have said as much.
-CE

Actually, he eluded to that at the end of the season. :(

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 07:44 PM
I'm doing the same in regards to people thinking the Milton and Randa signings are examples of trying to put a good team on the field.

:dflynn:


...would you rather have last year's team?

You take that team -- I'll take this team, and we'll see which is better

TRF
12-27-2004, 07:45 PM
How about we put Freel at third and sign O. Perez instead. I'll take that team and see whose is better.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 07:46 PM
How about we put Freel at third and sign O. Perez instead. I'll take that team and see whose is better.

I could live with that...but that's not what happened...I'm at least basing my argument on actual things that took place

Raisor
12-27-2004, 07:46 PM
...would you rather have last year's team?

You take that team -- I'll take this team, and we'll see which is better


Considering how much the team over-achieved last year, I'm not sure that's a safe bet. This team could score more runs and give up less runs and STILL win less games.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 07:48 PM
I'll take the bet on this team doing better than last years team

TeamCasey
12-27-2004, 07:48 PM
I'm still trying to pick my jaw up off of the floor at the fact that the Reds brass is actually trying to put a good team on the field

That's been my reaction.

TRF
12-27-2004, 07:49 PM
No, it isn't what happened. that's the point.

MikeS21
12-27-2004, 07:49 PM
Like WVRedsFan, I've been reading through the thread and want to give my two cents worth. Count me among those who thinks this was a mistake.

Wins are irevelevant because a pitcher can give up seven or eight earned runs and still win. Some folks are pointing to Milton’s WHIP, K/BB, and K/9 numbers, but I’m not all that impressed by them. Those numbers certainly do not place him in the top ten NL pitchers. When you start comparing him to the pitchers in the NL Central he will be dueling – folks like Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt, Oliver Perez, Kip Wells, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and Mark Mulder, it is apparent we still are lacking a bonafide #1 starter with lights out stuff who can shut the door against teams like the Cardinals or Astros or Braves.

And after giving up 43 HR’s last year, it makes me cringe when I consider how often he will be pitching to the likes of Sammy Sosa, Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, and Albert Pujols. Eric Milton’s gopher balls will have more miles on them than the Starship Enterprise.

Scouting reports say that Milton has lost 3-4 MPH off his fastball, which used to sit around 94 MPH. That doesn’t bode well for a guy who desperately needs to blow hitters away with the occasional strike-out.

Every time Carl Lindner has opened his wallet, it has back-fired. We’ve see Barry Larkin, Ken Griffey Jr., Sean Casey, and Danny Graves al signed to bad contracts. Casey is the only one who as come close to earning his, but last year may have only been a blurp on hat has been an otherwise downward spiral. This is a $25.5 million mistake that will only cause the ownership partners to clam up worse in a couple years when they need another fat contract.

Worse yet, if Dan O’Brien genuinely thinks he has improved this team the last two weeks or so, we’re in for a LONG and LEAN couple of years.

Matt700wlw
12-27-2004, 07:49 PM
No, it isn't what happened. that's the point.

Then what happened?

CougarQuest
12-27-2004, 07:50 PM
Actually, he eluded to that at the end of the season. :(
He and the management had a long meeting at the end of the season and Casey was told the direction the team planned on taking this off season and Casey was pumped.

traderumor
12-27-2004, 08:24 PM
Just a thought, wins are not irrelevant, but be careful.

RFS62
12-27-2004, 08:47 PM
Some good video of his best stuff from a game last summer.

Check out "Milton's 12 K's" under the multimedia section on the right.

MLB Video (http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=132980)

SirFelixCat
12-27-2004, 08:54 PM
Some good video of his best stuff from a game last summer.

Check out "Milton's 12 K's" under the multimedia section on the right.

MLB Video (http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=132980)


I don't know what pitches he throws, but from that video, it appears that he has some serious gas and a NASTY change up.

Anyone help on that?

redsfanmia
12-27-2004, 09:09 PM
I cant believe what im reading! People have been complaining about how cheap the Reds are and how they dont have any pitching, so they go out and get 2 successful major league pitchers and everyone is saying they overpaid and that they were horrible pickups. Come on people, Milton won 14 games last year, sure he gave up 43 homers but Browning gave up a bunch of homers, Soto gave up a bunch of homers, who cares the guy is now the best pitcher on our staff and Oritz is the second best pitcher on the staff.
You complain about the money that Milton got, you have to realize the Reds had to overpay to get him. The guy is a quality pitcher, is he Sandy Koufax? No but he is the best lefthanded starter we have had since Pete Shourek or John Smiley.
Lets be excited that the Reds are now trying to win, not complain about everything they are doing. For the first time since 2000 im excited about Reds baseball, im even going to end my boycott and go to a few games next year!!!!!

Reds1
12-27-2004, 09:50 PM
How about we put Freel at third and sign O. Perez instead. I'll take that team and see whose is better.

Personally I'd rather have Randa and Milton. We need a lefty and Randa is much better then Freel at 3B. Freel even said his least favorite position is 3B. How can you say we aren't putting a better team out there. We signed DJo, LaRue, 3 upgrades in the pen and two starters that are better then anyone we currently have. We've spent money and haven't let any quality guys go. We've trimmed the fat and got rid of guys that shouldn't even be on major league rosters. The only thing we haven't done is signed Dunn to a long term contract. I'm hoping that is next. I just don't understand the infatuation with O. Perez. Like having him makes this team World Champions. If we have Freel at 3B, sign Perez, and don't get Weathers, Randa, Ortiz, etc. this team wouldn't even have a chance and now it does. Look at this team. We have SP, RP, a bench, an above ave. catcher. 3 guys who can hit 40 HRs. A guy who can win the batting title. Man, it's going to be a fun year. Can't we just all get along here and agree that these moves have made this team better. I would say much better. :D

Edd Roush
12-27-2004, 09:52 PM
Some jokers on this board seem to want the Reds to still be a Yankees/Red Sox minor league team.

The Reds have had NO success developing their own starters and there is no reason we should have to wait even longer to see if now is better.

While I'm not in complete verse with all of these tricky new statistics, I see Milton has CONSISTENTLY won a good number of ball games and has no major arm injuries to date.

While 25.5 Million dollars is a HELLUVA lot of money is it yours? nope, well then don't complain. Maybe, Uncle Carl's heart grew during Christmas and decided to throw some more money into the team.

Carl is a business man and he understands you MUST spend money to get money.

I have a lot of optimism for DanO and I think that he understands the game well. Dan O'binder was his nickname according to some of these same critics.

Do you really think DanO decided that he wanted to just throw 25 million dollars away? HELL NO he knows exactly what is going on.

In October, when the Reds win the Central, you guys will all change your opinions and you will see that this signing was the beginning of something good.

Time will show, please people let the pessimism leave, I like this signing even for the small portion of Carl's billion's it is. Just let it be known that DanO and Carl are opening up to this team and give it a chance.

Thanks for getting through my first rant

RF2

BCubb2003
12-27-2004, 10:00 PM
A little snow in Dayton and its bizarroworld.

Half the fans are criticizing Carl Lindner for spending too much money.

The other half are saying, "Pythagoras is dead. Just throw strikes."

Sometimes you have to take the field with the free agents you sign, not the free agents you wished to sign, or the free agents you might could sign at a later date.

Now we have to fill the ballpark to pay for these guys.

Would Odalis Perez win the division for the Reds? Would Mulder?

Is perfect the enemy of the good?

The Angels are paying the luxury tax next year.

Could the Reds sell some more shares like the D'Backs did?

Would RedsZone buy one?

Or two, and split the vote?

REDREAD
12-27-2004, 10:34 PM
Cincinnati is not an attractive place to play baseball, and it will take several signings like this: overpaying players to show a commitment to building a contender, to shed the image of a team trying to compete with minor leaguers and scrubs like the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates.

-CE

Thanks for posting Caveat.. I tend to agree with you.

Sure, the Reds overpaid Milton.. I don't want to debate the amount he "should've" gotten.. but it's likely that more attractive clubs offered him that amount. So the Reds had to overpay to get him.

I like this move. It doesn't make the Reds instant contenders, but it shows that Carl is putting his money where his mouth is. The GAB is generating plenty of cash. If Carl still wants to win, there should be no reason why this signing should cripple us. Too many people are used to the idea that we have to keep payroll at around 42 million.

Again, this is another move to move us up the ladder of respectablity. We easily have a potential 2nd or 3rd place team now. The WildCard is probably a long shot, but we're moving forward.

For those that dislike this move, you can at least be comforted by the fact that if all DanO moves backfire, he's very likely to get canned at the end of the year. Carl is shelling out some serious money now, and you know he expects results.

This offseason is SO much better than last offseason. Even Krusty isn't damning Lindner anymore :)

Again, I see this move as upgrading every slot in the rotation, and pushing an underqualified pitcher out. I like it. Like the Ortiz move, this should make the team a lot more entertaining to watch than the alternative (do nothing).

Also, I'd like to say that it's very likely that DanO didn't have the option to save the 8 million in case something good came up in July. Carl wants to put out the message that the Reds are winning NOW. He doesn't want the message in July (too late to sell tickets then). It seems reasonable to assume that Milton was the best option avaiable unless a trade was made (and the Reds have precious little talent). Heck, this signing is a lot better than trading Kearns for Zach Day or trading Dunn for a solid 4 million dollar pitcher.

15fan
12-27-2004, 10:46 PM
Scouting reports say that Milton has lost 3-4 MPH off his fastball, which used to sit around 94 MPH. That doesn’t bode well for a guy who desperately needs to blow hitters away with the occasional strike-out.


Hey Mike -

The princeton mantra is that Gullet works best with guys who have "stuff", but need a little "oomph" on their heater.

After the Jimbo era of giving DG nothing but Nuke Laloosh clones to work with, i'll give Dan credit for trying a different approach. I'm most curious to know what Gullet thinks of Milton

Here's my take on the deal:

Is Milton a bona fide #1? No.

Is he arguably the best starting pitcher and/or the highest ceiling to show up in River City in the past decade? Yep.

Did the Reds overpay for him? Probably. Of course, top-notch FAs haven't exactly been beating a path to the front door of the Reds.

Milton isn't the strongest link in the 25 man chain.

But his presence definitely pushes another much weaker link back to Louisville.

Phhhl
12-27-2004, 10:52 PM
What I would like to see is all the guys making mucho dinero pitch a little better than their norms, and for my man Luke Hudson to step up with his lethal arsenal of "stuff" to become the ace of this pitching staff. Then we would really have something. I think these signings help, but the guys that can REALLY benefit and make a difference are Claussen and Hudson. With attention and pressure defelcted away from them, those guys may be able to take advantage of some lopsided matchups against other team's 4th and 5th starters... a LOT better scenario than seeing them run up against the 2's and 3's of the league every time out. Both Claussen and Hudson still have tremendous upside.

PressBox
12-27-2004, 10:54 PM
Did the Reds overpay for him? Probably. Of course, top-notch FAs haven't exactly been beating a path to the front door of the Reds.



Those who are critical of O'Brien for signing Milton rather than Perez, Lowe, or Milwood would do well to remember this. There really are pitchers who don't want to pitch in Cincinnati, regardless of the dollar amount.

johngalt
12-27-2004, 11:02 PM
How about we put Freel at third and sign O. Perez instead. I'll take that team and see whose is better.

How about you magically make Perez want to play for the Reds.

I swear, I can't get over this notion that the Reds could sign anyone they wanted if they just threw money at them. Some people look at location, environment, and other factors when they're shopping for a team. I know it's a novel concept in the world of free agency, but it does happen.

CougarQuest
12-27-2004, 11:03 PM
According to the local news, Milton picked the Reds over the Yanks, Red Sox and Dodgers, even turned down more money to do so.

wally post
12-27-2004, 11:12 PM
I also hear that Milton turned down money from the Yanks to do this - (personal -once removed- connection to the Yanks front office) and the Yankees are now (IMO) more desperate to complete the Randy Johnson deal as a result of this signing. I think this is AMAZING. Say what you want about dollars and value. These are not bags of groceries that are being bought and sold like in rottiserie...

the PLAYER has to want to come and live there / work there. The Reds have joined the poker game and anted up - let's celebrate! We have become players.
Dan O has my respect now as does our dreaded owner. Good effort. Let's support! More might be coming... who knows?.. Krusty? :D

MikeS21
12-27-2004, 11:16 PM
Hey Mike -

The princeton mantra is that Gullet works best with guys who have "stuff", but need a little "oomph" on their heater.

After the Jimbo era of giving DG nothing but Nuke Laloosh clones to work with, i'll give Dan credit for trying a different approach. I'm most curious to know what Gullet thinks of Milton

Here's my take on the deal:

Is Milton a bona fide #1? No.

Is he arguably the best starting pitcher and/or the highest ceiling to show up in River City in the past decade? Yep.

Did the Reds overpay for him? Probably. Of course, top-notch FAs haven't exactly been beating a path to the front door of the Reds.

Milton isn't the strongest link in the 25 man chain.

But his presence definitely pushes another much weaker link back to Louisville.
Supposedly, the question of velocity stems from the fact that Milton had major knee surgery back in 2003. He lost weight in order to take some strain off the knee, and lost velocity when he returned in 2004. The big unkown is whether or not the weight loss caused the drop in velocity, or did the inactivity. The knee could turn into a chronic thing which will force Milton to play at the lower weight.

I am very leery because I look at his numbers and nothing about him causes me to be excited. In 2004, he was 61st among ML starters for ERA. He was tied for 28th for quality starts. His WHIP was ranked 43rd among major league starters. His K/BB ranking was 43rd. The only halfway decent stat was his K/9, which ranked him 22nd in the majors - but the arm velocity question lingers. And I'm already having visions of Albert Pujols depositing more than a few Eric Milton pitches into the outfield seats both here in Cincy and St. Louis.

Basically, everyone's happy because Dan O'Brien bought a lemon used car that is only slightly nicer than last year's model and a whole lot more expensive. Go figure.

reds44
12-27-2004, 11:18 PM
I dont care what any of you guys say, we needed a 3rd baseman we got one, we needed bullpen help, we got it, we needed starters we got 2. We may have overpayed, but we desperatley neede pitching.

Reds4Life
12-27-2004, 11:23 PM
We may have overpayed, but we desperatley neede pitching.

So because we needed something it's ok to overpay for it? I guess we should scrap Randa's deal for $2.15 million and just give him $8 million year too, after all, we needed a 3rd sacker.

I wish we were in a position to take a gamble on players with $25 million dollar deals, but we just aren't. Payflex is a rare resource for this team, it shouldn't be spent unwisely.

CougarQuest
12-27-2004, 11:24 PM
According to the news, the Yanks offered $27.5 million / 3yrs.

The Yankees GM wanted him

The Red Sox GM wanted him

The Dodgers GM wanted him

Interesting.

Reds4Life
12-27-2004, 11:28 PM
The Yankees can afford to spend that on a player like Milton, they have an endless stream of cash, the Reds don't. $8 million a year to the Yankees is nothing, to the Reds it's a fortune.

CougarQuest
12-27-2004, 11:31 PM
Another local news is reporting that the Marlins wanted him also

MikeS21
12-27-2004, 11:40 PM
According to the news, the Yanks offered $27.5 million / 3yrs.

The Yankees GM wanted him

The Red Sox GM wanted him

The Dodgers GM wanted him

Interesting.
The difference being, they didn't want or expect Eric Milton to be their #1 or #2 pitcher. They were thinking #3 or #4. And they could afford to pay a #4 pitcher $27 million.

The scary thing is that Dan O'Brien actually thinks he can counter divisional rival ace pitchers like Ben Sheets, Doug Davis, Kip Wells, Oliver Perez, Roy Oswalt, Matt Morris, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Zambrano with Eric Milton

If the hitters don't produce 6-7 runs per game, we're sunk.

wally post
12-27-2004, 11:44 PM
Umm..... yeah. but we are better than we were yesterday, right? Not mine or your money.... I'm psyched - better than ANY of us imagined possible given the history of our ownership.

SteelSD
12-27-2004, 11:47 PM
Great points, Mike. Here's O'Brien's take on the offseason per mlb.com:

"Our goals this offseason were pretty basic," explained O'Brien. "Number one, we wanted to reconstruct the bullpen. To that end, we've added three quality Major League relievers (Weathers, Weber, Mercker). We wanted to resolve the situation at third base. I think we've done quite well with the signing of Joe Randa. And last, we wanted to upgrade our starting pitching. The re-signing of Paul Wilson and the addition of Ramon Ortiz via trade certainly made us a much better club going into the spring. But, in truth, I couldn't envision that the ultimate conclusion to our offseason plan would culminate today with the addition of a legitimate upper-tier Major League starting pitcher like Eric Milton."

Oh, gee, Dan...I certainly couldn't envision the "ultimate conclusion to our offseason" to be the signing of a bunch of nothing to high dollar deals. Unfortunately, I had high hopes that you'd actually sign a "legitimate upper-tier Major League starting pitcher".

That pitcher isn't Eric Milton. And frankly, you've done a great job of spending money on chopped steak that should have been reserved for filet mignon.

Very glad, Dan, that you're happy as all get out about spending a whole lot of money doing nothing this offseason. Great job!

I don't know of a single member of this board who would promote spending money just to spend money. Not one. Yet, that's what Dan O'Brien has just done.

Compentency isn't a question anymore. O'Brien has done answered that one.

wheels
12-27-2004, 11:52 PM
Well put Steel.

Although, I think alot of people on this board are indeed happy that they spent money just to spend it.

"At least they did something" Seems to be the popular mantra.

By the way....I hope we're all wrong about Milton.

I hope that I and a few of the other "negative" posters all have to eat serious crow. Of course, I don't plan on getting the grill warmed up anytime soon.

CougarQuest
12-27-2004, 11:53 PM
The Yankees GM wants to win the WS and wanted Milton to be one of their starters. Perhaps the Yankees GM isn't very intelligent.

The Red Sox GM wants to win the WS and wanted Milton to be one of their starters. Perhaps the Red Sox's GM isn't very intelligent.

The Dodgers GM wants to win the WS and wanted Milton to be one of their starters. Perhaps the Dodgers GM isn't very intelligent.

The Marlins GM wants to win the WS and wanted Milton to be one of their starters. Perhaps the Marlins GM isn't very intelligent.

Milton wants to win a WS and choose the Reds over those teams. Before he signed, he wanted to see if the Reds would address their Bullpen. When they did, he was ready to sign. Perhaps Milton isn't very intelligent.

As far as making the comment that certain teams can afford to make "mistakes" in signing players like Milton. Only one team every year can afford to make mistakes ... all the other teams, every mistake counts no matter your budget.

wheels
12-27-2004, 11:55 PM
How can you explain all of the other evidence, Coug?

Can anyone explain away Milton's propensity for giving up tons of extra base hits?

He's a gascan, and what other GM's were willing to throw at him won't make me think otherwise.

Sorry.

CougarQuest
12-28-2004, 12:01 AM
How can you explain all of the other evidence, Coug?

Apparently Theo and Depodesto see something. Apprently they put more stock in some numbers and less stock in other numbers. Theres a lot of GM's there that have won WS's lately that wanted Milton. And another GM who is supposed to be a Billy Beane disciple that also wanted him and saw something.

wheels
12-28-2004, 12:03 AM
I know what we're gonna see. Lotsa balls leaving the park.

I hope they did see something, I really do.

It would be great to see DanO stumble on to something with this guy, but right now my better judgement is telling me it's not likely.

SteelSD
12-28-2004, 12:04 AM
How can you explain all of the other evidence, Coug?

Can anyone explain away Milton's propensity for giving up tons of extra base hits?

No one can explain that away, wheels.

Per usual, everyone expects Eric Milton to be a completely different pitcher when he dons a Reds cap and uniform.

Same thing was expected last year from Cory Lidle. Same thing is expected this year from both Milton and Ramon Ortiz.

They're recognizable names and Don Gullett claims residence at the GAB so why shouldn't a bunch of lower-end pitchers do what they're not capable of. THEY HAVE TO BE GOOD BECAUSE EVERYONE RECOGNIZES THEIR NAMES AND THEY'RE NOW WEARING REDS UNIFORMS.

God forbid you bring logic into the mix.

gO frEaKin' rEdS!!!!!!!!

wheels
12-28-2004, 12:06 AM
gO rEdz.

Bill
12-28-2004, 12:08 AM
I've read the opposite- that once Milton saw NY sign pavano and wright, that he chose to look elsewhere as their rotation was getting crowded. Cleveland called him but said no thanks when they learned the $ he was asking for. Can't see how Boston would have room for him after signing Clement, Wells and Miller. LA, not sure about but I see Obrien bidding against himself here.

I asked this earlier but if this spending spree was just decided upon in the last two weeks or so in response to the intense level of criticism aimed at Lindner, then I would think they never had a shot at Clement, Lieber etc. It would not surprise me that this signing was a knee jerk reaction, certainly it could not be one that had been well thought out and it goes against OB's whole build through the draft, spend wisely plan. Ortiz and Milton could have all been done on the fly by OB which leaves me worried what else may be coming.

Bill
12-28-2004, 12:17 AM
CQ, sure the local press is going to play up the signing-its news. Yet they don't have the sources to verify that. Sure NY was interested early but for 21 million and that interest reportedly ended after they signed a couple arms. Until I see in the times or a national source that all those teams were bidding against the Reds, I won't believe it.

westofyou
12-28-2004, 12:25 AM
Because the the signing falls during the last week of the year I'm assuming that the 4 million buck bonus will be paid in full prior to the new year, thus coming out of a budget overflow (some call them "profits") making the salary of Milton 4 million against the 2005 Budget.

I'll be waiting for the first Reds official to cite the salary at 8 million for the year.

CougarQuest
12-28-2004, 12:31 AM
CQ, sure the local press is going to play up the signing-its news. Yet they don't have the sources to verify that. Sure NY was interested early but for 21 million and that interest reportedly ended after they signed a couple arms. Until I see in the times or a national source that all those teams were bidding against the Reds, I won't believe it.

Believe what you want, doesn't matter to me, it's not going to hurt my feelings. I'm just passing on the info that I received. As far as I know, New York will play it down because they lost and Cincinnati will play it up because they won. The truth may not be on either news source. To me the interesting thing is that those teams were interested and wanted him on their team. Both news sources apparently are reporting that.

Jpup
12-28-2004, 12:31 AM
CQ, sure the local press is going to play up the signing-its news. Yet they don't have the sources to verify that. Sure NY was interested early but for 21 million and that interest reportedly ended after they signed a couple arms. Until I see in the times or a national source that all those teams were bidding against the Reds, I won't believe it.

The NY Times is a RAG.

westofyou
12-28-2004, 12:32 AM
The NY Times is a RAG.

Without it we'd never know what Merce Cunnigham is up to.

Bill
12-28-2004, 12:37 AM
I found the AP piece back a few pages. This part is telling- done as a last minute push. It also stated NY and Boston were interested (but does not specify when):

The Reds were one of the latecomers in talks with Milton, who was contacted by about six teams.



"I was very surprised," Milton said. "They had not been very active in the past."



Once they decided to go after him, they did it all-out. Casey, closer Danny Graves and starter Paul Wilson called Milton, and manager Dave Miley offered to drive down to his home in Florida for lunch.



"Things changed from week to week," Milton said. "New teams came up, and teams dropped out and went in different directions. Once they got into the mix, they were pretty relentless. It just made me feel really wanted, that's for sure."

CougarQuest
12-28-2004, 12:42 AM
Hmmm, six teams.
New York and Boston being two of them.
Reds went after him after they lost out on Clement.

Bill
12-28-2004, 12:54 AM
Of course he was contacted by several teams, I just have not seen any source verify that he was indeed offered more than the 3/21 mill the yanks offered (or was it 3/18 I'll have to check) and that was a couple weeks back. Who knows, maybe they did have to outbid some teams, but I just did not see much evidence of a great demand for his services nor did I see any evidence that they were chasing Clement. Clement made it pretty clear which teams he was talking to and which cities he was visiting and I never saw the Reds come up other than in a california paper rumor. Rather what I see is Lindner react to an ever louder call in the local press that he had no intentions to make an effort to win. That the Reds were a late caller on Milton supports that and if that is the case I have to wonder whom they would have landed/spent the money on if they had had a clear plan the day after the WS concluded.

jpup-not saying the times is a source for Reds info but they are a solid source for yankee activities/offers.

Redmachine2003
12-28-2004, 01:01 AM
Perez and Clement would not win the Reds any more games than what Milton will. Milton, Perez and Clement are all about the same class of pitchers and they will get the going rate and that is about 8-9 mill a year.

Bill
12-28-2004, 01:04 AM
Couldn't find it, but did come across this which is encouraging as Milton will have to pitch to the best of his abilities each time out to justify his contract:

But Yanks doctor Allen Miller thoroughly checked him out last week in Tampa and apparently gave Milton a clean bill of health to move forward in negotiations with agent Casey Close.

MWM
12-28-2004, 01:22 AM
Apparently Theo and Depodesto see something. Apprently they put more stock in some numbers and less stock in other numbers. Theres a lot of GM's there that have won WS's lately that wanted Milton. And another GM who is supposed to be a Billy Beane disciple that also wanted him and saw something.

If these guys were really interested in Milton, it would have been as bottom of the rotation filler, not as the staff ace. Those teams can afford bad contracts, the Reds can't. The situations are so different that it makes me feel no better about the signing just because those other teams were interested. Count me as skeptical that he was offered the same money but decided to come to Cincinnati. If these other teams would have wanted him badl enough, they would have bid enough to get him, IMO.

Phhhl
12-28-2004, 01:43 AM
Well, Milton is now a Red. Couldas and shouldas don't mean a heck of a lot at this point, unless we're keeping score on our opinions. I'm convinced there are not enough pitchers the esteemed council of Bill James, Billy Beane and Paul Depodesta actually likes in baseball for every team to average more than 1 or 2. So, if we are still searching for ours, I'll at least take guys with good phsyical ability, like Ortiz and Milton. I do have a deep respect for statistical evidence, but there is always a place in my heart for raw talent so long as pitchers like Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano blossom late in their careers. Baseball is damn near perfect, but not to the extent that the future can be predicted in all instances.

OrlandoBuckeye
12-28-2004, 01:44 AM
I personally love the signing. Preferred him over Odalis Perez who is 2 games over .500 in the best pitchers park in baseball. Milton is 14 games over playing in two of the worst pitchers parks.

Why complain about the money we spent on Milton unless your actually signing the checks?

volmanac
12-28-2004, 01:47 AM
""""The Reds have joined the poker game and anted up - let's celebrate! We have become players.
Dan O has my respect now as does our dreaded owner. Good effort. Let's support! """"
(that was a quote i couldnt get to quote right and too lazy to fix it properly)


thats how im looking at it. signing 6 quality pitchers,over the winter, that will be on your opening day roster is a good thing . no doubt about it.

talent wise we can compete.
dollar wise we have good value per player per dollar.
thats as good as it gets im modern MLB, cant ask for more.

im very happy!

westofyou
12-28-2004, 01:47 AM
Other contracts that push the market.

$ 7.00 - Reuter

$ 8.75 - Ponson

$ 7.25 - Joe Mays

Tay
12-28-2004, 02:06 AM
I have to agree with those who like the idea that money is finally being spent, but are a bit skeptical about Milton being the recipient.

The one thing folks can't argue about is whether or not it's an improvement over the status quo. That's all that matters to me and is why I like the move.

CJFeldy
12-28-2004, 02:06 AM
Alright, for the naysayers with their statistics, I'd like you to quantify 2 things for me: player morale and fan morale.

Happier players play better. If the Reds feel they can win, it's probably more likely they can win, right? So if players like Sean Casey and Paul Wilson, arguably the leaders of the team, are into this signing, isn't that good?

As for the fans, I've seen a lot of posts that can be summed up as "casual fans are stupid for liking well-known players and this signing is horrible because of statistics." I hate to tell you spreadsheet wizards something, but stats geeks don't buy a large portion of the Reds tickets. Probably very small in fact. Even if we paid too much, or if we should've gotten someone else, the fact is that big-name players attract casual fans. Fan morale means more tickets sold, which means more money. You can't quantify fan morale, but I think a signing like this can help it a lot. Casual fans pay the bills. I guess stat-addicted pessimistic fans have their place, but they are hated for their snob attitude. Baseball isn't this elite little club that only the select-few with ample time on their hands to comb through stats manuals can enjoy. It's supposed to be for everyone.

As for statistics in general, I know my OPS and WHIP and whatnot. I've done fantasy for a long time. And I've read Moneyball twice, the bible of baseball stats geeks. Well, that and Bill James's stuff. But either way, Billy Beane still has no championships to show for all of his genius. Baseball can be helped with numbers, and prejudices can be prevented with such data, but the fact is that baseball is still a game for humans, not computers. You can't control a baseball team like you control your fantasy team. Oh, Beane tries to cop out saying he builds his team for the regular season, and the playoffs are random anyway, but like I said, that's a cop out. Where was Kevin Youkilis, the Greek god of walks so beloved by Billy Beane? Riding the bench for the World Series champs. How about a little optimism to temper our cold mathematics people!

MWM
12-28-2004, 02:13 AM
Alright, for the naysayers with their statistics, I'd like you to quantify 2 things for me: player morale and fan morale.

Happier players play better. If the Reds feel they can win, it's probably more likely they can win, right?

So how many games do you think the Reds will win in 2005 with the players they've acquired this offseason?

pedro
12-28-2004, 02:17 AM
So how many games do you think the Reds will win in 2005 with the players they've acquired this offseason?

84

MWM
12-28-2004, 02:20 AM
84

I hope you're right. If they win 84 games, that meant A LOT of things went right.

volmanac
12-28-2004, 02:21 AM
Reds will be within 6 games of NL central lead on Aug 1.

how many wins? i dont know

will we play meaningful games in september, yes.

all this is a positive step over last year and thats all that matters.

MLB is setup like college sports now where success steamrolls,progress is good. Look at the Cardinals,they compete yearly now. Thats all i want (for now)

pedro
12-28-2004, 02:37 AM
I hope you're right. If they win 84 games, that meant A LOT of things went right.

Pretty much everything would have to I'd guess. This team isn't going to contend unless the offense explodes, which is possible, but probably unlikely. To me, what the additon of pitching has done is make it more likely that the Reds will have 3 starters w/ 180 plus innings which hasn't happened in a while. If it does, then the Reds will improve just b/c they won't blow out the bullpen by the beginning of august. The ERA's will be high, and the number of dingers might be astronomical, but the REds won't be struggling just to find a healthy guy to throw out there in August as in previous years. It appears the Reds pitching strategy is to become consistently mediocre, as opposed to being consistenty bad. The staff was so bad last year that just getting some pitchers who actually would exist on another teams rosters is an improvement, even if they are all mediocre.

Forgetting the whole money thing and accepting that it would be nice to have gotten some real studs, I'm at least happy that the Reds have made improvements, as weak as they may seem.

westofyou
12-28-2004, 02:39 AM
Hey CJ, nice stereotyping there.

Can't wait to hear some slide rule jokes. :MandJ:

RosieRed
12-28-2004, 02:40 AM
Alright, for the naysayers with their statistics, I'd like you to quantify 2 things for me: player morale and fan morale.

Happier players play better. If the Reds feel they can win, it's probably more likely they can win, right? So if players like Sean Casey and Paul Wilson, arguably the leaders of the team, are into this signing, isn't that good?

Reminds me of the great quote in Raisor's signature:

"I talked to Paul (DePodesta) this morning and asked if he could acquire some chemistry from another GM whose team is out of the race. But I'm concerned chemistry might not clear waivers."
--Billy Beane

A lot has been said on the subject, but a lot of people seem to agree that winning results in good team chemistry (i.e., good fan morale and player morale). If the Reds are winning a lot of games, obviously fans and players will have better morale than if the Reds are losing a lot of games.

What do you think the Reds are going to win next year? 3rd place in the division? And is that winning? Is, say, a .517 winning percentage "winning"?

Of course Casey and Wilson would be happy with Milton. He gives more hope than a Hancock would. I'm glad for them if they're happy about this. And if happy players = winning lots of games, then we'd be in for a great season.


As for the fans, I've seen a lot of posts that can be summed up as "casual fans are stupid for liking well-known players and this signing is horrible because of statistics." I hate to tell you spreadsheet wizards something, but stats geeks don't buy a large portion of the Reds tickets. Probably very small in fact. Even if we paid too much, or if we should've gotten someone else, the fact is that big-name players attract casual fans. Fan morale means more tickets sold, which means more money. You can't quantify fan morale, but I think a signing like this can help it a lot. Casual fans pay the bills. I guess stat-addicted pessimistic fans have their place, but they are hated for their snob attitude. Baseball isn't this elite little club that only the select-few with ample time on their hands to comb through stats manuals can enjoy. It's supposed to be for everyone.

As for statistics in general, I know my OPS and WHIP and whatnot. I've done fantasy for a long time. And I've read Moneyball twice, the bible of baseball stats geeks. Well, that and Bill James's stuff. But either way, Billy Beane still has no championships to show for all of his genius. Baseball can be helped with numbers, and prejudices can be prevented with such data, but the fact is that baseball is still a game for humans, not computers. You can't control a baseball team like you control your fantasy team. Oh, Beane tries to cop out saying he builds his team for the regular season, and the playoffs are random anyway, but like I said, that's a cop out. Where was Kevin Youkilis, the Greek god of walks so beloved by Billy Beane? Riding the bench for the World Series champs. How about a little optimism to temper our cold mathematics people!

Apologies if you run into fans who are beyond "casual" while on this board. And nobody is saying casual fans shouldn't buy tickets because of this signing, or anything like that. If this signing brings out more casual fans, great. I always thought casual fans didn't really pay attention to who was pitching on what night, or really remember who was signed back in Dec., but I certainly could be wrong. Maybe we just have a different definition of "casual" fans.

The "stat-addicted pessimistic fans" you're referring to are just pointing out that Eric Milton is not the ace pitcher some people want him to be. What's wrong with that? Just because he cost a lot of money, nothing negative can be said? Or is it because the Reds finally "did" something? Should we all just smile and be grateful because we signed another average pitcher, who just happened to come with a $25.5 MILLION price tag?

pedro
12-28-2004, 02:42 AM
Alright, for the naysayers with their statistics, I'd like you to quantify 2 things for me: player morale and fan morale.

Happier players play better. If the Reds feel they can win, it's probably more likely they can win, right? So if players like Sean Casey and Paul Wilson, arguably the leaders of the team, are into this signing, isn't that good?



I do think that these are the kind of moves that players love (as they are notoriously bad talent evaluators) and that giving the impression that the Reds are trying to win may help convince Dunn to sign a LTC.

I also think that it will help player morale, which isn't entirely bad.

Johnny Footstool
12-28-2004, 04:14 AM
Alright, for the naysayers with their statistics, I'd like you to quantify 2 things for me: player morale and fan morale.

Happier players play better.

Tell you what: you quantify your "happier players play better" statement, and I'll take a stab at quantifying player morale and fan morale.


You can't control a baseball team like you control your fantasy team. Oh, Beane tries to cop out saying he builds his team for the regular season, and the playoffs are random anyway, but like I said, that's a cop out. Where was Kevin Youkilis, the Greek god of walks so beloved by Billy Beane? Riding the bench for the World Series champs. How about a little optimism to temper our cold mathematics people!

"We mock what we don't understand." -Dan Akroyd, Spies Like Us

Those "cold mathematics" are the best predictors of player performance. Granted, the sun can shine on any dog's behind from time to time, but over the long haul, the statistics you appear to loathe prove true.

I know folks like to cling to a belief in the magic of the game, and that's fine. I enjoy it when the underdog beats the odds, when Juan Castro uncorks a game-winning grand slam, or when the Marlins beat the Yankees in a short series. But the numbers tell me that won't happen very often.

And the numbers tell me that Eric Milton is a mediocre major league pitcher who just rode a team-oriented, Run Support based stat (Wins) and his reputation (including a 1999 no-hitter vs. an depleted Angels lineup containing such luminaries as Orlando Palmeiro, Steve Decker, Matt Luke, and Bret Hemphill) to an incredibly bloated contract.

You can choose to look on the bright side and say, "well, maybe he'll be happier here than in every other city, and maybe he'll pitch better here than anywhere else, and maybe he'll be worth the money." That's fine. I'm not going to say those things will never happen, because they certainly could -- Eric Davis and Jose Rijo could also come out of retirement and lead the Reds to the World Series -- you never know. However, the cold numbers tell me it probably won't happen.

GAC
12-28-2004, 05:15 AM
I will say his, Milton does has upside. I wouldn't be all tha surprised to see him have a decent year and improve on the past season. But I'm still not jumping for joy over this signing and no way is he worth what they're paying him.

Very few pitchers in MLB are worth what they are paying them.

Name a FA pitcher signed this winter that hasn't been overpaid? ;)

I really don't know what some see in Millwood.

GAC
12-28-2004, 06:00 AM
One of the biggest concerns by Cincy fans was that this organization sign a #1 SP. And we are referring to a established #1, who has the track record.

But does anyone realistically think that this organization, and many other franchises who are in the same situation, can even operate on the same playng field when it comes to bidding/signing any of the established FA SP's that we have seen available this winter?

Where have a majority of these guys been going? Surprised?

C'mon. Lets be sensible here.

Did the Reds overpay for Milton? Most likely so.

Did the Reds WANT to pay that much for Milton? NO! But it's not the Reds who set/dictate the market price.

The only way they can dictate the market price is by not entering the market! :lol:

One has to look at all the different parameters/influences that set the salaries of these pitchers. It's totally out of the hands of teams (including the Reds).

What does this signing, and the other signings show me? That this organization is not simply sitting on it's hands and not trying.

I don't know what their payroll will now be going into '05; but I do know this.... they have forked out some dough in just Randa, Ortiz, and now Milton.

And what about the pending arb cases?

I may be an "over the hill" optimist; but some of you are just too doggone pessimistic. :lol:

If they hadn't signed a SP, like Milton or whoever, you'd be complaining that it's "same-o same-o" with this cheap, penny pinching owner/organization.

They make a couple signings and now it's "They overpaid".

Heck yes they probably overpaid! It is the trend any more when you're in a bidding war. Especially for SP's.