MSNBC Picks the Reds to go 80-82, Finish 4th

[Unassisted]

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6841800/
CINCINNATI REDS 2004 recap: 76-86, 4th place

Manager: Dave Miley (2nd year)

Arrivals: LHP Eric Milton, RHP Ramon Ortiz, RHP David Weathers, RHP Ben Weber, LHP Kent Mercker, 3B Joe Randa, RHP Ricky Stone

Departures: SS Barry Larkin, IF Juan Castro, RHP John Reidling, LHP Phil Norton, LHP Gabe White, 1B/OF John Vander Wal, RHP Todd Van Poppel, OF Darren Bragg

What to look for: Every winter, a team that has designs on making a jump in the standings signs a couple of marginal veteran players, thinking that will do the trick. But more often than not, the strategy doesn’t work, and on occasion, backfires.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/040620/040620_ken_griffey_homer_vmed.standard.jpg
Peter Newcomb / Reuters
Ken Griffey, Jr. is expected to show up healthy to spring training after having surgery on his torn hamstring.


The Reds were that team this winter, and even signed an expensive free agent that nobody thought they could get in Eric Milton. By doing so, they have pushed the payroll to a record $60-plus million, but still don’t figure to be anything better than a fourth-place team in the Central. Oh, if everything goes right, and Houston tumbles, maybe the Reds can get to third. But let’s not get carried away. And if enough things go wrong, then a fifth-place finish isn’t out of the question by any means.

The good news is Ken Griffey Jr. is expected to report to camp healthy after having surgery to repair a torn hamstring. But even at 100 percent, there really is no chance of him being the superstar he used to be. At best, he will be a low-average, 35-homer, 100-RBI man, and could move to a corner outfield spot in hopes of staying healthier. Keeping Austin Kearns in the lineup also could be a key to the season, as his 2004 season was cut to 200 under-productive at-bats. Joe Randa’s signing keeps Kearns in the outfield where he belongs, and also frees up Ryan Freel for utility duty, which best suits him.

Wily Mo Pena might have to wait his turn after a breakthrough season in 2004, but given recent history, he shouldn’t have to wait long. Most likely, he’ll get plenty of starts against left-handed pitching. He and Adam Dunn in the lineup together could produce a lot of home runs, but way too many strikeouts.

You have to give Paul Wilson credit for finding a way to reinvent himself and turn into a solid starter after injuries took away the stuff that made him a No. 1 overall pick. Flyball pitcher Eric Milton got out of one bandbox by leaving Philly, but finds himself in another. Still, he’s a competitor and is a much better alternative than anything else the Reds have for the front of their rotation. Ramon Ortiz has gone downhill since a 16-win season in 2002, but will get a chance to start again, and maybe the move to the National League will help. Aaron Harang should be a competent fourth starter, and young arms Luke Hudson, Brandon Claussen and Josh Hancock will fight for the fifth spot. The latter could end up in the bullpen if he doesn’t win a rotation spot. David Weathers, Kent Mercker and Ben Weber could help the bullpen, but Mercker has back problems and Weber had terrible numbers when he was healthy enough to pitch last season in Anaheim. Look for a lot of runs to be put on the board in Reds’ home games.

Rumor mill: There could be a minor move made to help the bench, but nothing is imminent.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/040725/040725_milton_vmed.small.jpg
George Widman / AP
Eric Milton left the Phillies to sign with the Cincinnati Reds in the offseason.


The pressure is on: Eric Milton is a good middle-of-the-rotation starter who because of his three-year free-agent deal, could be seen as the supposed savior of the staff. That’s dangerous territory, especially for a guy who is home-run prone in a home park that favors offense. But as long as expectations aren’t too high, Milton should be OK.

Breakthrough time: Felipe Lopez has been around for parts of four big-league seasons, and still has yet to establish himself as an every-day player. But he’ll get that chance this year at shortstop — with a tough act to follow in Barry Larkin. But he is only 24, and has the physical tools to succeed. We’re not talking about an All-Star by any means, but Lopez should produce enough to stay in the lineup.

Regulars: 2B D’Angelo Jimenez, 1B Sean Casey, RF Austin Kearns, CF Ken Griffey Jr., LF Adam Dunn, 3B Joe Randa, C Jason LaRue, SS Felipe Lopez

Rotation: LHP Eric Milton, RHP Paul Wilson, RHP Ramon Ortiz, RHP Aaron Harang, RHP Luke Hudson or LHP Brandon Claussen or RHP Josh Hancock

Relievers: Closer: RHP Danny Graves; Setup men: RHP David Weathers, LHP Kent Mercker, RHP Ben Weber, RHP Jose Acevedo, RHP Ryan Wagner, RHP Joe Valentine, RHP Ricky Stone

Role players: C Javier Valentin, IF/OF Ryan Freel, IF Rich Aurilia, OF Wily Mo Pena, IF Rey Olmedo

Disabled list: IF Anderson Machado

Predicted finish: 80-82, 4th place

[jmcclain19]

Everyone, myself included, keeps forgetting about Ricky Stone, who could make a solid contribution this season.

Acevedo and Hancock are my bets for guys who don't end the season in a Reds uniform.

[Joseph]

Acevedo and Hancock are my bets for guys who don't end the season in a Reds uniform.

They get my vote too.

[Joseph]

Here's what USA Today has to say about them.

CINCINNATI REDS

What's set: Free agent RHP Paul Wilson signed a two-year deal to return as the staff ace. LHP Eric Milton, signed as a free agent from Philadelphia, and RHP Ramon Ortiz, acquired in a trade from Anaheim, should bolster the rotation. RH closer Danny Graves returns to anchor the bullpen, fortified by the additions of LHP Kent Mercker and RHP David Weathers. 1B Sean Casey, 2B D'Angelo Jiminez and C Jason LaRue are returning infield starters, and free agent signee Joe Randa answers the need for a third baseman.

What's not: The Reds have plenty of competition for jobs. In addition to bullpen vacancies, the final two spots in the starting rotation will feature a battle between RHPs Aaron Harang, Luke Hudson and Josh Hancock and LHP Brandon Claussen. Four top-notch outfielders — Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena — are vying for playing time at three spots. SS Rich Aurilia was signed as a free agent to compete with Felipe Lopez as the replacement for retired shortstop Barry Larkin. OF-IF Ryan Freel might be the team's best leadoff hitter but doesn't have a position.

Keep an eye on: Griffey, after playing just 83 games last season because of a torn hamstring, is still the key to the Reds' hopes. The superstar has missed 331 of 648 possible games for Cincinnati.

Key number: 46 Home runs by Adam Dunn last year, which led the team.

[Reds Fanatic]

MLB.com also picks them to finish fourth. Here is what they say:

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20050208&content_id=940657&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp

Reds
This team doesn't get much respect, but when you look at its lineup, particularly its outfielders, you get the idea that this team may have a lot to say about who wins the division, even though they are likely a few pieces short of contending in 2005. The Reds' four top outfielders -- Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena -- can bang with the best bashers in the game when they're healthy. The Reds have upgraded at third base in Joe Randa, stocked the rotation with Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz and added a few veteran arms to the bullpen mix such as Ben Weber and David Weathers. It won't be the best staff in the division, but one that should be a definite improvement over last season.

Projected regular-season finish: Fourth place

Biggest ST challenge: Overall health of key veterans is an issue with this team, but another challenge will be determining a pecking order in the middle infield and then giving the two starters, whoever they are, ample time to work together before the start of the season.

Best position battles: If everyone stays healthy the offense should be adequate, so if Paul Wilson, Milton and Ortiz can deliver as hoped and the Reds also see improvement from young starters like Aaron Harang and Brandon Claussen, this team could surprise some people

They also have a longer preview of the Reds in this article:

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/cin/news/cin_news.jsp?ymd=20050208&content_id=940905&vkey=spt2005news&fext=.jsp

[Redsland]

Key number: 46 Home runs by Adam Dunn last year, which led the team.
Led the team? Nice understatement. He was second in the majors, for Pete's sake.

[westofyou]

MLB.com also picks them to finish fourth.

Why is the business of baseball endorsing predictions? Seems misplaced and somewhat ridiculous.

[registerthis]

Everyone, myself included, keeps forgetting about Ricky Stone, who could make a solid contribution this season.

Acevedo and Hancock are my bets for guys who don't end the season in a Reds uniform.
Hmm...I dunno. Acevedo was practically unhittable when they moved him back to the pen last year. I think he's got good stuff, just not cut out to be a consistent starter.

[Carter]

Hmm...I dunno. Acevedo was practically unhittable when they moved him back to the pen last year. I think he's got good stuff, just not cut out to be a consistent starter.


Next Gagne?? ;)

[deltachi8]

i think 80 wins is pretty much where i would pick em.

[RedsFanInMD]

Fourth place may be a reasonable prediction -- but if EVERYTHING goes right (rotation is good, JR and Ears stay healthy, etc), is this team really THAT far behind the Cubs?

[TRF]

Fourth place may be a reasonable prediction -- but if EVERYTHING goes right (rotation is good, JR and Ears stay healthy, etc), is this team really THAT far behind the Cubs?

Prior
Wood
Zambrano
Maddux

yep, they are that far behind.

[Redmachine2003]

Prior
Wood
Zambrano
Maddux

yep, they are that far behind.
No bullpen and little offense.
Maddux is getting older
Wood has problems with pitch counts
Prior has shown to have some nagging injuries
Yes the Reds are not that far behind the Cubbies and the Stros.

[Matt700wlw]

Led the team? Nice understatement. He was second in the majors, for Pete's sake.

Don't bring Pete into this....

[westofyou]

How does a guy who averages 101 pitches a start have problems with pitch counts?

[TeamBoone]

Led the team? Nice understatement. He was second in the majors, for Pete's sake.

Thank you. Glad I didn't respond the moment I read it without reading further.

[TeamBoone]

Hasn't it been said elsewhere that Houston isn't as good this year? I'm too lazy to go looking for it.

[red-in-la]

How does that number rank WOY.....seems like a rather HIGH average to me. I mean that can be good and that can be bad. I recall seeing some of Wood's games last year where he threw 130 so odd pitches.

[westofyou]

How does that number rank WOY.....seems like a rather HIGH average to me. I mean that can be good and that can be bad. I recall seeing some of Wood's games last year where he threw 130 so odd pitches.

Wood topped 119 4 times, the 131 game was in April, I'd say the problem with PC's isn't Kerry's directly but Dusty Baker's. Wood was roughly 28th in MLB in pitches per start, though the median seems to be around his picth counts.

[macro]

Where were the 1990 Reds picked to finish? I'm glad they went ahead and played that season out.

[Matt700wlw]

Where were the 1990 Reds picked to finish? I'm glad they went ahead and played that season out.


How about the 1999 Reds? What did the "experts" say about that?

[Joseph]

We all know how intelligent the 'experts' are.

[Redmachine2003]

How about the Marlins of 2003 where were they picked?

[TRF]

No bullpen and little offense.
Maddux is getting older
Wood has problems with pitch counts
Prior has shown to have some nagging injuries
Yes the Reds are not that far behind the Cubbies and the Stros.

I'd counter that with their bullpen is questionable, not MIA
Lee at 1B, Ramirez at 3B. lots o' power there.
Corner OF is certainly suspect. Patterson shouldn't lead off. Garciaparra at SS if he's healthy is not a bad thing at all.
Maddux is Maddux. I'd take him.
Wodd has no problem with pitch counts as WOY stated
Prior had injuries last year

The reds have no one that matches up to Zambrano, much less the other three.

The Cubs are better than we think.
Yes the reds are that far behind the Cubs. Now the Astros on the other hand truly have questions.

[guernsey]

How about the Marlins of 2003 where were they picked?

Even as late as mid-August that season they were supposedly like Bruce Willis's character in The Sixth Sense; dead and didn't know it ...

[Caveat Emperor]

The reds have no one that matches up to Zambrano, much less the other three.

The Cubs are better than we think.
Yes the reds are that far behind the Cubs. Now the Astros on the other hand truly have questions.

One word explains why predictions are worthless: INJURIES.

The Cubs are "predicted" to win the NL Central. Wood and Prior spend time on the DL while the Cardinals stay almost completely injury free and St. Louis ends up running away with things.

The Cubs are better than we think, but I wouldn't want to lay money on Prior, Wood and Zambrano making it through the season healthy with that awful bullpen they have. Dusty Baker already likes to ride pitchers hard, and if he's got no one to give the ball to in later innings, he's going to call on his big 3 to go deeper into games.

-CE

[Hap]

Being the eternal optimist, I would like to point out that the experts predicted the 1990 Reds to finish fourth in the division. They also predicted the 1988 Bengals to finish fourth in their division.

[macro]

Aren't the experts' and magazines' predictions in all sports each year just a carbon copy of the final standings from the previous season, with a few tweaks here and there? They're guessing, and little more. And their guesses are not much better than the guesses of fans who know the sport and follow the off-season moves.

For example, the 2003 Steelers, coming off two straight division titles, are a popular pick to do so again. They go 6-10. So, in 2004, they are picked to struggle to reach .500. They go 15-1. Therefore, in 2005, they are picked to contend for the Super Bowl title. They go 9-7.

It's obvious that these predictions are based mostly on what the team did last season, and not on any grand knowledge of how things will actually turn out. Preseason predictions make for interesting conversation and interesting reading, but I don't let them get me too excited or too deflated.

[Tommyjohn25]

Good post Macro, you beat me to the punch!! I was watching espn the other day and you know who they predicted would be in the superbowl next year? Are you ready for this? THE PATRIOTS AND THE EAGLES!! HOLY CRAP!! :eek: Forget the predictions let's play the games!!

[Hap]

And, of course, let us not forget the sweep that was predicted for the 1990 World Series. There was, in fact a sweep, but.................................

[Unassisted]

Atlanta Journal/Constitution has a similar pick:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/0205/13bbpage.html?UrAuth=%60NcNUObNVUbTTUWUXUTUZTZU%60 UWU^UbUZU%60UZUcTYWVVZV


4. Cincinnati

In a busy winter, the Reds upgraded their rotation and added some other veteran pieces. This still looks like a sub-.500 team, however.

[MWM]

What's the point of all of this? No one knows for certain what's going to happen. Not the optimists, not the pessimists. All anyone has is an opinion based on the information available and the likelihoods of certain things occurring.

But if we're not going to make predictions and actually talk about what we think is going to happen, we may as well shut the site down in the off-season because there's nothing to talk about. That's what talking baseball is all about. Sorry, but I'm not interested in coming to a site where everyone sits back and waits to comment only on what actually happens on the field. All we'd have is a bunch of "nice play by Lopez" or "Dunn hit that one a mile." :sleep: :sleep: Where's the fun in that.

[Unassisted]

The Cincy Post checks in, with no prediction:
http://www.cincypost.com/2005/02/12/reds02-12-2005.html
2. Cincinnati

• 2004: 76-86, fourth, 29 GB

• Key additions: LHP Eric Milton, 3B Joe Randa, RHP Ramon Ortiz

• Key losses: SS Barry Larkin, IF Juan Castro

• Outlook: The Reds brought in seven big-league veterans during the offseason, and they understand their expectations for at least a few rest on a leap of faith. Subpar 2004 seasons were the primary reason they could afford to bring in players like Ortiz, David Weathers, Ben Weber and Rich Aurilia.

The hope is that each of them, along with Milton, Randa and Kent Mercker, will play to a level each has demonstrated his ability to reach at some point in the last few years. If that occurs, the Reds will be a notably deeper -- and probably much better -- team.

A starting five that could have been very inexperienced, at best, has been significantly bolstered with a true top-of-the-rotation talent in Milton and guy who has dabbled at that level in Ortiz. The bullpen should be far better with manager Dave Miley calling upon the likes of Weathers, Weber and Mercker than Aaron Myette, Juan Padilla and Phil Norton.

And the lineup, if healthy, should be able to match the output of anyone in the division. The one gaping hole, third base, was addressed with the signing of the steady veteran Randa, and Aurilia's addition should make it much easier to get by at shortstop in the absence of Larkin and Castro.

The Reds still lack team speed and a true leadoff man when Ryan Freel is on the bench, but they should be able to pound their way out of plenty of jams with Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena.

There's no guarantee early contention won't dissolve into a midsummer slide again this year, but the new-look Reds appear to be much better positioned to stave off that kind of collapse.

[KronoRed]

Castro is a key loss?

+ for the Reds :D

[Redmachine2003]

The Reds upgrade their rotation, Bench, Bullpen, and 3rd base and that is only good enough for 4 extra wins :dflynn: :dflynn: :dflynn: :dflynn: :dflynn: :dflynn: You know I don't mind people picking the Reds to finish 4th because it can give these boys some extra fire in their bellies. But it is getting very old to read that the Reds are really any better than last years team with 80 wins or less.

[MWM]

But it is getting very old to read that the Reds are really any better than last years team with 80 wins or less.

Why does it bother you that others see things differently than you? The Reds could acutally be better than last year and still have the same record or even a little worse. When you're talking about 162 games, it's not like the number of games a team wins is an absolute figure based on the talent of the team. There is plenty of natural variation that goes into wins. Winning 76 games does mean that the quality of a team is determined right down to the single number of wins they achieve. The number of games a team wins in any given year could go 5-7 games in either direction. Based on the number of runs scored and scored against, last year's Reds team outperformed the number of wins that's normal for that differential (and please don't discount this method because it's incredibly accurate across MLB). That's not something that can be relied on to repeat itself and it's not something you can attribute to any "ability" of the team unless that same team does it consistently. That's why a lot of folks think they've improved, but based on how much they outperformed expected wins could very easily wind up with a worse record.