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Red Leader
03-18-2005, 05:18 PM
I've drawn the 4th position in my Fantasy league that I'm in with some co-workers. It is a competitive league, and there are 10 teams.

I'm pretty sure Pujols, ARod, and Vlad will go 1, 2, 3. That leaves me with the choices of Beltran, Tejada, Soriano, Santana, or the Big Unit in position #4.

Our categories are:

R, H, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, AVG, OPS for hitters

IP, W, L, SV, BB, K, ERA, WHIP for pitchers.

Positions are:

C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, UTIL, UTIL for hitters

SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P for pitchers.

I'm leaning towards taking Beltran with the 4th pick and hoping a pitcher like Jason Schmidt or Roy Oswalt falls to me in the 2nd round.

The other option is to take Santana with pick #4 and go for a hitter in round #2. Mark Teixeira or Miguel Cabrera should be there for my 2nd round pick.

So, if you were me, which option would you lean toward?

Beltran and Schmidt/Oswalt
or
Santana and Teixeira/Cabrera.

Or would you go with a different pair because of my categories and positions.

There are 11 hitting positions and 9 pitcher positions

There are 9 hitting categories and 8 pitching categories.

This is a head to head league.

Stewie
03-18-2005, 05:51 PM
I'd take Beltran or Abreu. There's plenty of good pitchers that you can pick in the middle rounds who will do well (Harden, Greinke, Oliver Perez, Peavy, Zambrano, etc etc) who can help you out. I just would rather take the sure thing and get a dominant offensive player, I think they are more of a sure thing than a pitcher. Beltran or Abreu can help you more categories than Santana could.

jmcclain19
03-18-2005, 06:11 PM
Beltran's high playoff numbers sheild that he's an overpaid guy who's played in hitters parks for years. this year, playing in Shea will unmask that.

Personally, my draft strategy has always been pitching, pitching and pitching. Stewie's got some good advice. I've had Abreu for years and he's amazing as a fantasy player. Always heavily underrated.

jmcclain19
03-18-2005, 06:13 PM
Tejada, BTW, is an ironman and will likely play 162 games and compete for the MVP again. He'll have Sosa hitting behind him, as well as Palmerio and Lopez again with Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora in front of him.. He's probably, outside of the Yankees, in the best hitting situation in the AL.

Red Leader
03-18-2005, 06:27 PM
Beltran's high playoff numbers sheild that he's an overpaid guy who's played in hitters parks for years. this year, playing in Shea will unmask that.

Personally, my draft strategy has always been pitching, pitching and pitching. Stewie's got some good advice. I've had Abreu for years and he's amazing as a fantasy player. Always heavily underrated.


Josh, are you saying that you think Beltran will be a bust this year?

I don't see that. He's got Jose Reyes and Kaz Matsui in front of him and Piazza behind him. I'm guessing he puts up similar stats to last year's and raises his avg a little this year.

I also think Abreu is a great player. Didn't really think about him as high as #4.

jmcclain19
03-18-2005, 06:51 PM
I'm using OPS cause it's a quick and dirty way to show my point.

Beltran's .915 OPS was 24th in the NL last year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?split=0&league=mlb&season=2004&seasonType=2&sort=OPS&type=reg&ageMin=0&ageMax=99&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all

2003, his OPS was .911, tied for 28th in the MLB

His last three years, he's had a much worse OPS .862 than he did on the road .915.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/splits3?statsId=6132&type=batting


Park factor of Kauffman - 1.278
Park factor of Shea - 0.975

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Meaning he's always hit better on the road, lifting his numbers at home for his averages. Now he's playing in a park that is even less friendly to hitters, meaning he'll have to be an absolute monster on the road all season just to equal his numbers.

All of those point to concern, from me anyway.

Teixeria and Tejada have better numbers. Teixeria is up over Beltran in every cat in 2004.

Johnny Footstool
03-18-2005, 06:59 PM
I also think Abreu is a great player. Didn't really think about him as high as #4.

Abreu had 30 HR and 40 SB last year. No one else in the OPS top 20 had more than 15 SBs.

He's a monster.

Red Leader
03-18-2005, 07:04 PM
I see your point, Josh. That's the tricky part of drafting for this league. It's not a roto league. I need someone that consistently will outproduce the player in the other teams lineup week in and week out. I'm not sure who would do that for me.

For the record, I am very down on Alfonso Soriano this year. I think he WILL be a bust. He won't run very much because of his injury problems and his BB/K rate is awful. Otherwise, he would have been my choice at #4 because of the lack of depth at 2B.

Abreu does have a higher OPS than Beltran and his 40 steals are impressive enough to think about selecting him at #4. I'm praying that Vlad falls to me at #4 (and someone takes Beltran 3rd, but I'm doubting that will happen).

jmcclain19
03-18-2005, 07:11 PM
Everyone's got their own strategy RL.

I know I'm quirky when it comes to baseball. We have an NL only league that has 26 man starting rosters. So it forces you to really scour and look at value for your buck (it's a bidder/auction league).

Whatever you do, look at the stats, and balance that against your gut and go with it.

Red Leader
03-19-2005, 10:09 AM
I'm seriously hoping that Beltran goes with one of the top 3 picks, because if Vlad would fall to me in the 4th spot I would be ecstatic to take him. I'm going to try and send out some "feeler" emails on Monday to see if I can get a sense of which way guys are leaning and to throw out some "I hope Beltran is there for my 4th pick, I'm dying to have him on my team" stuff. After looking at Abreu's stats from last year and reading more about him in draft previews, I'm not so sure he isn't a better pick than Beltran at this point. Many project Beltran at .285/35/105/40 this year and Abreu at .300/30/100/35. I think Abreu will be closer to those projections.

Red Leader
03-19-2005, 11:42 AM
I'll add that this league is usually pretty predictable. Everybody loads up on hitters in the first round, and usually the 2nd. I wouldn't be surprised to see Santana last until about the 9th or 10th pick at the end of the first round and the Big Unit fall to the beginning part of the second round. Schmidt, Oswalt, and Sheets might all go in the 2nd round, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of them fall to the 3rd round...that's how much owner's in this league load up on hitting in the early going. Because of this, that is why I was thinking of going with a hitter in the first round vs. a pitcher but because Santana is so dominant in IP, W, L, K, ERA, and WHIP, I have given some thought about nabbing him in the first round, and looking for the best hitter available in round 2.

On the other hand, if I grab pitchers in the first and second round, I'm missing out on a lot of "stud" hitters, but I should be able to find good values in hitters while they are selecting pitchers in rounds 3-6 or so.

Now, I'm really confused on what to do. :MandJ:

MuEconRedLeg
03-20-2005, 10:46 PM
I'll add that this league is usually pretty predictable. Everybody loads up on hitters in the first round, and usually the 2nd. I wouldn't be surprised to see Santana last until about the 9th or 10th pick at the end of the first round and the Big Unit fall to the beginning part of the second round. Schmidt, Oswalt, and Sheets might all go in the 2nd round, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of them fall to the 3rd round...that's how much owner's in this league load up on hitting in the early going. Because of this, that is why I was thinking of going with a hitter in the first round vs. a pitcher but because Santana is so dominant in IP, W, L, K, ERA, and WHIP, I have given some thought about nabbing him in the first round, and looking for the best hitter available in round 2.

On the other hand, if I grab pitchers in the first and second round, I'm missing out on a lot of "stud" hitters, but I should be able to find good values in hitters while they are selecting pitchers in rounds 3-6 or so.

Now, I'm really confused on what to do. :MandJ:

If Vlad fell to me at four I would be all over it. If not I would go Abreu in the first and grab my closer in the second. Then I would pick up that complimentary hitter in the 3rd round. Tex/Cabrera might still be there.

It is tough to not take a stud starter if the league goes hitter heavy. But, I have always found it is more effective to maximize two start pitchers and match-ups in a head to head league.

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 12:05 AM
I was all set to take Johan Santana with the first pick, and then Vlad fell to me at #4. I couldn't pass him up. Here is how the draft ended up. Pujols, A-Rod, and Tejada went 1.2.3.

1. Vladimir Guerrero, OF
2. Randy Johnson, SP
3. Ben Sheets, SP
4. Nomar Garciaparra, SS
5. Francisco Rodriguez, RP
6. Adam Dunn, OF
7. Ivan Rodriguez, C
8. A.J. Burnett, SP
9. Travis Hafner, 1B
10. Lance Berkman, OF
11. David Wright, 3B
12. Brian Giles, OF
13. Jeremy Bonderman, SP
14. B.J. Ryan, RP
15. Freddy Garcia, SP
16. Preston Wilson, OF
17. Kevin Brown, SP
18. Jason Bay, OF
19. Kaz Matsui, 2B
20. Cliff Lee, SP

I wasn't planning on taking R. Johnson, Berkman, P.Wilson, or J.Bay, but given how far they dropped, I couldn't resist. My biggest regret was that I didn't take Barry Bonds, and he was there for me in the 8th round. Unbelievable. I completely forgot about him still being out there. I plan on putting Berkman in a DL spot and picking up Tony Womack, Cuddyer, or Tadahito Iguchi until Matsui establishes eligibility at 2B.

I'm not so sure if I like the picks of Kevin Brown and Cliff Lee, but I can always drop them and pick up either a two start pitcher that week, or a "hot" pitcher.

I think I should have K's wrapped up each week between Randy Johnson, Ben Sheets, Francisco Rodriguez, and B.J. Ryan. Garcia, Bonderman, Burnett and Lee help there as well.

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 12:41 AM
Also, notable players that didn't get drafted:

Jason Giambi, Phil Nevin, Ben Broussard, Jeff Bagwell, Luis Gonzalez (Ari), Coco Crisp, Frank Thomas, Mike Sweeney, Richard Hidalgo, Geoff Jenkins, Trot Nixon.

Juan Rincon, Doug Davis, Adam Eaton, Paul Byrd, Miguel Batista, Randy Wolf, Esteban Loiaza, Erik Bedard, Kip Wells, Mike Adams, Horacio Ramirez, Brandon Backe, Dan Haren, Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa.

If anyone thinks there is anyone on those lists that would be better on my team than my current players, let me know. I was thinking of dropping either Kevin Brown or Cliff Lee and picking up another closer to help with saves: Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa, Mike Adams, Miguel Batista, and Chin-hui Tsao are the available closers.

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 11:09 AM
The players I'm not sure of are: Jason Bay, Preston Wilson for my hitters and Kevin Brown and Cliff Lee as my pitchers.

Will the arm injuries Jason Bay suffered sap him of his power for a long time?
Preston Wilson has looked good in camp so far, if he gets back close to 100% he's a steal in round 16.
Kevin Brown: on the decline, for sure. But can be good in W, ERA, and WHIP.
Cliff Lee: Chosen by some to break out this year. Good K numbers, but he was rocked in the 2nd half last year. Was it because he was injured? Worn out? Not sure what to expect of him.

westofyou
03-24-2005, 11:22 AM
Bay's arm problems are a "bruise" and he was starting to swing yesterday. FWIW Preston Wilson projects poorly I'd dump him since you don't need a true CF in your league. Multiple utility slots means more hitters, Calvin Pickering will mash it more than Wilson. Matsui K's alot and that will count against you, as does Bay, Wilson, Hafner and Dunn, Matsui also struggled against RH's last year. You could reduce your team K's by losing Wilson and getting a 2nd baseman to spilt time with Matsui, reducing his K's and boosting your 2nd base numbers at the same time.

Your pitching looks solid

Johnny Footstool
03-24-2005, 12:08 PM
I don't know how a healthy Preston Wilson could project poorly. Colorado is Colorado, and he'll rack up the counting stats. He'll be around .300-35-100 with 15 steals. His only problem will be his K's in roto leagues.

westofyou
03-24-2005, 12:16 PM
I don't know how a healthy Preston Wilson could project poorly. Colorado is Colorado, and he'll rack up the counting stats. He'll be around .300-35-100 with 15 steals. His only problem will be his K's in roto leagues.

If he's healthy I guess is the key

FWIW PECOTA has him at .273/.347/.497 and only 12 VORP.

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 12:31 PM
Yea, not real sure on Bay or Wilson. I could dump them both and pick up two of Nevin, Broussard, and Jason Giambi. Even though Giambi is "damaged" I'm still guessing he puts up decent counting stats in that lineup. He draws more BB as well. I think Broussard will have a good season, and almost took him instead of Bay or Wilson anyway. I think I want to hold onto Preston to see how he does the first couple weeks. I could also dump Kaz Matsui and pick up Tony Womack. I was thinking Kaz would go .280/20/85/25 this year, though and Womack won't be close to that.

Would you guys trade Kevin Brown or Cliff Lee for a closer like Guillermo Mota?

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 12:36 PM
There are no bench spots in our league, so I can't "rotate" players. They are all in my active lineup. So a "platoon" of players doesn't work in this league. They both are in my active lineup, doesn't matter which position I have them in, they all count the same.

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 12:38 PM
I could probably swing a Kevin Brown + Preston Wilson for Jose Reyes and Guillermo Mota trade with the team that auto drafted 6 closers. He needs SP bad, although I'm not real thrilled with Reyes' discipline at the plate.

Johnny Footstool
03-24-2005, 01:20 PM
Would you guys trade Kevin Brown or Cliff Lee for a closer like Guillermo Mota?

Yes, in an instant. Offer Lee first, then Brown.

I'm pro-Preston Wilson (Colorado is Colorado), so I'd hang onto him.


FWIW PECOTA has him at .273/.347/.497 and only 12 VORP.

Those numbers are probably pretty accurate, but they don't include his counting stats (R, RBI) or SB potential.

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 01:47 PM
Yes, in an instant. Offer Lee first, then Brown.

I'm pro-Preston Wilson (Colorado is Colorado), so I'd hang onto him.

Those numbers are probably pretty accurate, but they don't include his counting stats (R, RBI) or SB potential.

I sent an email to the guy that has Mota, and asked him what he'd want for him. I'll post back when I get a response.

I agree that I need to shed some K's.

I also, am pro-Preston. He could put up huge counting stats, if healthy. I think I'll give it a month or so to see if he is before I drop him.

Should I go ahead and drop Bay for Giambi, Nevin, or Broussard? Problem is, those three guys K a lot, too, although they walk more on average. I could also pick up someone like Luis Gonzalez, he doesn't K as much, but will he put up numbers similar to what Bay will? He's getting up there in age.

To further reduce K's, I could drop Matsui and pick up Womack, but does that hurt me more than it helps me?

westofyou
03-24-2005, 01:56 PM
I sent an email to the guy that has Mota, and asked him what he'd want for him. I'll post back when I get a response.

I agree that I need to shed some K's.

I also, am pro-Preston. He could put up huge counting stats, if healthy. I think I'll give it a month or so to see if he is before I drop him.

Should I go ahead and drop Bay for Giambi, Nevin, or Broussard?

To further reduce K's, I could drop Matsui and pick up Womack, but does that hurt me more than it helps me?

Keep Matsui, with a year under his belt in the US he could surprise, you could always see what happens in the K department, the other numbers might be good enough to suffer with those.

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 02:08 PM
What about Bay? Should I keep him as well? Or should I pick up another player for him? I like his .908 OPS, but I don't know how much this injury is going to hold him back. I also don't know much about him and really haven't seen him play to know how good he is, or could be. I think Broussard is going to take the same leap that Hafner took last year. Do you think he will, and do you think he'll be better than Bay? They have him penciled in the 7th spot in Cleveland, which could hurt him, but that's where he hit most of last year if IIRC, and he put up .275/17/82/4 with an .858 OPS.

westofyou
03-24-2005, 02:14 PM
Bay over BB, he'll slug higher and have the same BA/OB range. Bay will be the middle of the order guy for the Pirates so he should get what RBI's there are.

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 02:32 PM
Bay over BB, he'll slug higher and have the same BA/OB range. Bay will be the middle of the order guy for the Pirates so he should get what RBI's there are.

So my offense is pretty set right now. I'll be putting Berkman on the DL when the Astros actually put him on the DL, and I will pick up a 2B to use there until Kaz Matsui establishes eligibility.

Another option I just saw is 2B Ray Durham. He doesn't K that much and is consistently above .280 avg with 15 HR, and 10 SB. I could drop Matsui for him. What are your thoughts on that? I mainly liked Kaz Matsui's chances for improvement this year because he'll be hitting in front of Beltran, and behind Reyes. So if Reyes gets on base (and stays healthy), and with Beltran behind him, he should see PLENTY of fastballs to hit, which I would think, would help him.

westofyou
03-24-2005, 02:56 PM
I had both Durham and matsui last year, Durham burned me with injuries, I like Matsui better, he'll get you more steals than Durham at his age, IMO.

Red Leader
03-24-2005, 03:04 PM
Yea, I think I spent a 5th round pick on Durham 2 years ago, and he was constantly hurt and didn't produce crap. Thanks again for all your help, woy.

Red Leader
03-25-2005, 10:44 AM
What do you think of this trade?

I give: SP Kevin Brown and SP Cliff Lee

I get: RP Chad Cordero and SP Dontrelle Willis.

Red Leader
03-25-2005, 10:55 AM
I think I really need a 3rd closer. I could get Percival, Baez, or Graves via a trade.

Or I could get: Affeldt, Mike Adams, Batista, Wickman, Mesa, Aquino, or Tsao via free agency by dropping Cliff Lee or Kevin Brown.

I like Percival the most out of that list, but he is very injury prone.

Thoughts on that.

MuEconRedLeg
03-25-2005, 08:23 PM
I think I really need a 3rd closer. I could get Percival, Baez, or Graves via a trade.

Or I could get: Affeldt, Mike Adams, Batista, Wickman, Mesa, Aquino, or Tsao via free agency by dropping Cliff Lee or Kevin Brown.

I like Percival the most out of that list, but he is very injury prone.

Thoughts on that.


Unless you could send Brown or Lee for Percival, I would simply drop one of them and pick up either Affeldt, Batista, or Mesa. Brown has looked not horrible at time this spring, so I would probably drop Lee first (simply for the upside).