This fantasy rookie needs some advice

[BuckeyeRedleg]

This is my first year in a fantasy baseball league and I'm trying to beat a friend who has supposedly won this thing the last 4 years, so I need all the help I can get from you gurus out there.

The league consists of 11-teams through yahoo with the following point system:

R=1, 1b=1, 2b=2, 3b=3, HR=4.5, RB=1, SH=.75, SF=.75, SB=1.75, BB/HBP=1,


GIDP= -1.25, K= -1, E = -2, CS= -.5

First question. Would the non-traditional OPS stat be useful in determining values of offensive players in a league like this? I assume so, but I'm not sure. High OPS should translate into good numbers across the board, except for SB's and RBI. Of course RBI, would be dependent on other variables, but RBI's are only worth 1 point, so no big deal, right?

Would Adam Dunn be a valuable player in a league like this? I ask, because in our auto-draft, he was pre-ranked at #72 (pitchers and offensive players). I was surprised, so I moved him up in my personal rankings, but someone else did as well, and I didn't get him.

I also need help with a potential trade.

My infield is strong with:

1b: Helton
2b: Womack
SS: Jeter (K.Greene)
MI: Renteria (K. Greene)
3b: Rolen
CI: Chavez

Now, since I just picked up K. Greene (.795 OPS in 2004 as a rookie), I'm thinking Renteria (.728 OPS in 2004) is expendable. That and I'm not to enamored with Renteria. So, I offered Renteria for Austin Kearns. Take a look at my outfield below. It's weak.

OF: Milton Bradley
OF: A. Rowland
OF: Matt Lawton
OF: Geoff Jenkins
OF: L. Gonzalez
OF/Uil: R. Ibanez
OF: Lance Berkman (DL)



I need help until Berkman is available. So, is Renteria for Kearns a good offer. I think I may pull it off because Kearns was ranked like 180ish and Renteria was #38 (way overrated). What do you all think? I ask because another guy that knows I don't want Renteria offered me Durham and Hidalgo for him. Durham and Womack are a wash, and Hidalgo is not real appealing to me, but my OF is weak and I may need to gamble.

I'd rather have Kearns, so I'm waiting for the other guy to respond to my offer.

My strength of my team is INF and rotation. My rotation is:

-Randy Johnson
-Ben Sheets
-Josh Beckett
-Barry Zito
-Eric Milton, Scott Kazmir, Brett Myers, Jim Lackey (back-up's)
-W. Miller (DL)

My other weakness (along with OF) is relief.

-Guardado (closer)
-B. J. Ryan (closer)
-Brazoban (closer, until Gagne is back)
-Julio (set-up)
-Donnelly (set-up)
-Borowski (DL)
-Tsao (DL)



Thanks in advance for any advice.

[Stewie]

Personally, I think you could get a better outfielder for Renteria than Kearns, especially if there is a team out there who has some bad middle infielders. I mean, if there is someone starting Julio Lugo or someone at SS, they may be willing to overpay for Renteria.

[Red Leader]

I agree with Stewie. Try Carlos Lee, or Hideki Matsui for Renteria. I've found that they are the two biggest undervalued OFers so far this year. That would be a steal for you. If you can't get one of those two for Renteria, you still can do better than Kearns (no knock on Kearnsy). Others to try and get for Renteria would be Vernon Wells, Corey Patterson and J.D. Drew.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Thanks again. So you guys agree that Renteria is overrated? I was just wondering if it was me.

I'll see if I can get one of those other OF's. I just thought Kearns was due to blow up and his upside was greater than the others. Of course, he hasn't proven he can make it through a whole season. If I can't get one of those guys I may dangle Renteria for a underrated closer. I'm pretty weak in that department right now.

Do you agree I should stay away from Hidalgo?

[Red Leader]

Hidalgo is a "sleeper". He could have a very, very good year in Arlington, and I'd probably rank him slightly ahead of Kearns, but he's in that class of OFers. For Renteria, in a league with a SS and MI, you should be able to do better.

I think Renteria is slightly overrated, but he's still a good player overall.

I don't think you'll be able to get a dominant closer for Renteria, but you can always try. You'll be fine with what you have now. Just keep checking for updates to make sure they hold onto their jobs and pick up someone that replaces a closer that goes down (like you did with Brazoban).

You DO need a stud OF to stick in that group you have now. That's what I would try to get with Renteria.

[Stewie]

Yeah, Renteria is good, but Jeter is better, and you should be fine with Greene as the MI. The downgrade from Renteria to Greene isn't as big as the upgrade you could possibly get from trading Renteria for an OF (if that makes sense). If you could package him with one of your OFs like Lawton or Gonzalez in order to get a great OF, that would work. Or packaging him with Guardado to get a stud closer might not be a bad idea, either.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Thanks. I just cancelled the Kearns offer and offered Renteria to the guy with Matsui.

He's weak at SS, with the other Matsui (NYM) and J. Wilson so he'll probably bite.

The guy with Carlos Lee has Tejada and Rollins, so I probably have no chance to get Lee for Renteria with him.



What do you all think about Womack? I'm not a big fan of his.

Ginter, Miles, O. Hudson, and Walker were not drafted. Should I pick one up and dangle Womack as well, or just pick one up and dump him?

[Red Leader]

While I'm not a big fan of Tony Womack's, he'll probably get you 80-90 runs, close to 25 steals and close to a .300 avg. With your categories, he'll probably also help in singles and sac hits and won't hurt you in K's, GIDP's, and CS's. I'd hold onto him over those other guys available.

If Craig Biggio is available, you may want to keep an eye on him. He'll be 2B eligible in 14 more games.

[Stewie]

Yeah, Womack bats 9th for the Yankees, meaning he is followed by Jeter, A-Rod, and Sheffield, so he should be able to score some runs. He's not great, but I agree with Red Leader that he is probably a better option than the other guys listed. They are all pretty average, but Womack has the benefit of being in a better lineup.

[Red Leader]

You won't get much, if anything, to improve your roster by trading Womack either. Another reason I say hold onto him.

[medford]

Has Miguel Batista been picked up yet? He was named Toronto's closer late in the spring. While he probably won't be a top 10 closer, there is something to the strength in numbers theory.

Personally, I believe that if Kearns is ever healthy for a full season, he'll be a top 20 fantasy outfielder. Before the shoulder injury (Ray King squatting) Kearns was perhaps the top fantasy outfielder to that point in the season (Mid May?), certainly w/n the top 5 based on what had happened in the first month & a half. You may be able to package Renteria & one of your outfielders for Kearns & another good outfielder.

Seems that your league favors guys that get on base & can steal a goodly amount of bases w/o getting caught. A guy that can walk 50 times, then promptly steal 2nd base 50 times, is equivalent to hitting 68.75 doubles. Heck, even if the guy was caught 50% of his 50 attempts, it would be like hitting 56.25 doubles Seems to overvalue steals a bit to me, so I'd try and take advantage of that. HR also get that 0.5 modifier (4.5 total) but everyone tries to get the guys hitting the long ball, hence a guy like Dunn is even more valuable.

What about a guy like Baldelli? He's due back in a couple of months. I believe that in most leagues you can usually find solid outfielders through out the season, so if you can pull a 3 for 2 trade, getting rid of renteria, and 2 lesser players, to pick up 2 top notch players, you could come out way ahead in the long run.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Unfortunately he was drafted. All current closers are on rosters. I picked up Brazoban once Gagne went down. I assume he'll be the closer there, but I picked up Carrara as well, just in case.

I'm currently watching these available relievers:


Romero (Minn)
J. Cruz (Oak)
Farnesworth (Tex)
MacDougal (KC)
Crain (Min)
Wagner (Cin)
Haren (Oak)

Our point system for relievers is as follows:

save = 8 points, hold = 4 points, W = 15 points, L = -5 points, Out = 1 point, K = 1 point, ER = -2 points, H/ BB = -.75 points, HBP = -1 point, WP/SB = -.5 points

What reliever do you guys like the best on my list?

[Red Leader]

Haren is a starter for OAK.

The rest are all good relievers. I like Farnsworth and Crain the least since they are behind good setup men (Urbina; Rincon) and wouldn't be next in line for saves on their teams. I think MacDougal will get a chance to close again this year at some point, but it's only KC. Cruz could take over in OAK if Dotel is traded, but they might just give it straight to Huston Street. Same with Wagner (as you know). All Twins relievers seem to vulture a good number of W's.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

That's right. Haren is a SP. They have him listed by Yahoo as SP/RP. I forgot he was a starter. I'm still a bit rusty this early in the season.

I like the Minnesota guys as well. Would Romero be the main set-up guy and possible future closer if Nathan went down. I can almost guarantee Wagner is a future closer, but probably not until next year at the earliest and this isn't a keeper league. I'm thinking he should be a great set-up man for Graves, if the Reds are good enough this year to give him that many opportunities.

I'm hoping Guardado and Ryan get some opportunities to score me some points. I'm really weak with the RP's. Good thing I have a good rotation. Maybe B. J. Ryan gets traded to a contender if the O's can't keep up in the East (whcih is likely).

I really want to win this thing.

Do any of you buy pre-season mags? I just picked up Lindy's and Street and Smith's last night. They're not Baseball Prospectus, but Lindy's has good scouting reports on all players and Street and Smith has good write up's on all the farm systems.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Medford, I was thinking about Baldelli as well. He and Mench are currently available.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Red Leader, I just noticed you said Rincon is the set-up man in Minny. Maybe I should pick him up for holds (4 points).

[Stewie]

Jesse Crain would most likely be the closer to take over in Minnesota if Nathan goes down. Romero is a lefty, though, so he will get a lot of opportunities for one out holds.

[Red Leader]

Rincon is a STUD middle-late reliever. He'll get you a low ERA, WHIP, lots of holds, W's, and K's and is next in line to close in MINN should Nathan go down (I don't personally think they'd hand it to Crain, he's still very green, but he is "the future" closer...but when?) I'd pick him up over anyone else on your lists above.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

The guy I offered Renteria for H. Matsui just countered with both Matsui's for Renteria and Zito.

Should I just offer him Zito for H. Matsui or maybe try to pull off Renteria and Milton for just H. Matsui.

I think I have a good rotation and Zito is my 4th best. I'd like to keep him, but he's been fading a bit the last year or so.

[Stewie]

Zito has been inconsistent, but he still has the potential to turn it around. Personally, i would do the Renteria and Milton for Matsui, but that's because I don't care for Milton. But your other starting pitchers are good enough that you could do Zito for Matsui and be good. I think either deal would work.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Thanks.

I just offered Renteria and Milton for H. Matsui.

I need more advice on the latest trade proposal. My friend who has won this league the last four years just offered:

D. Young (1b)
R. Hidalgo (of)
R. Durham (2b)

for

L. Gonzalez
M. Lawton

I think I'm going to jump all over this one, but I want to know what you guys think first. I can't make my own decisions. Just call me Dan O'brien. :)

[Stewie]

Yeah, I think I'd do that, too. Hidalgo and Gonzalez are more or less a wash, and Matt Lawton isn't very good. Although, you don't really need Young since you already Helton, Rolen, and Chavez as corner infielders. Durham will be about the same as Womack, although he may hit a few more homers and score a few less runs. The players you would be getting are better than the ones you are giving up, but I don't know how you could use Young. Unless he is eligible at OF.

[Red Leader]

Thanks.

I just offered Renteria and Milton for H. Matsui.

I need more advice on the latest trade proposal. My friend who has won this league the last four years just offered:

D. Young (1b)
R. Hidalgo (of)
R. Durham (2b)

for

L. Gonzalez
M. Lawton

I think I'm going to jump all over this one, but I want to know what you guys think first. I can't make my own decisions. Just call me Dan O'brien. :)

Personally, I wouldn't do this deal. Lawton isn't the best, but he's capable of 20/20. No player you are getting back will do that. Durham may go 20/10, but I worry about his health. I think Gonzalez will put up numbers close to what Da Meat will do.

I would just concentrate on the Renteria / Milton for Matsui deal.

[Johnny Footstool]

Durham will be about the same as Womack, although he may hit a few more homers and score a few less runs.

A healthy Durham is head and shoulders better than Womack, unless you are desperate for SBs. Durham is a habitual .800-OPS guy; Womack is lucky to crack .700.

The only issue is how many games Durham will play.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Both deals have been accepted and are just waiting for them to be approved.

If four people vote against the trades, they will not go through.


D. Young will just serve as back-up to Helton. I dropped R. Ibanez to make roster space. I picked up Nick Swisher, Rod Barajas, and Gustavo Chacin (Tor) and dropped Carrera, Donnelly, and Reitsma. My roster has a whole new look now.
C: Mauer (Barajas)
1b: Helton (D. Young)
2b: Womack/Durham
SS: Jeter
MI: Greene (Durham)
3b: Rolen
CI: Chavez

OF: Matsui
OF: Rowland
OF: Bradley
OF: Hidalgo
OF: Jenkins
OF: Swisher
OF: Berkman (DL)

SP: Randy Johnson
SP: Ben Sheets
SP: Josh Beckett
SP: Barry Zito
SP: Scott Kazmir (bench)
SP: Brett Myers (bench)
SP: Jim Lackey (bench)
SP: G Chacin (bench)
SP: W. Miller (DL)


RP: Guardado (closer)
RP: B. J. Ryan (closer)
RP: Brazoban (closer until Gagne is back)
RP: Julio (set-up)
RP: Borowski (DL)
RP: Tsao (DL)

It's only day four, but I'm currently in first place.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

The deal above was vetoed and fell through.

Now, I was just offered Hidalgo, MacDougal, and Affeldt (DL) for Joe Mauer.

MacDougal, and Affeldt are the closers in KC. Should I deal Mauer?

[Stewie]

I'd keep Mauer. Shaky closers on bad teams are scary.

[Red Leader]

I'd keep Mauer. Shaky closers on bad teams are scary.

Agree. Mauer is more valuable than Hidalgo, by a lot, and those relievers will be a nightmare this year.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Thanks.