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View Full Version : KEARNS almost Traded last night!



Dietz80
05-04-2005, 04:17 PM
My Friend works with the Clippers. Last night the press area was a buzz with trade rumors. A trade was supposed to go through but it didnt. KEEP your eyes open. This comes from the High Ups.

Austin Kearns to the YANKEES

Wang and Cano to the Reds*

It's almost for sure that we are gonna give them KEARNS, but the return hasn't been worked out yet. This trade is still in the very early stages, so it might fall through.

I just thought I'd let you know what the people at the Clippers are talking about.

WillPitch4Food
05-04-2005, 04:21 PM
"You'd better not be foolin' maaaan." - Lloyd, Dumb and Dumber

I'd take it.

CincyRedsFan30
05-04-2005, 04:21 PM
If you get this one right, your reputation will get to 200 immediately.

If you're wrong though... watch out! ;)

KronoRed
05-04-2005, 04:25 PM
That would be a terrible trade for the Reds..yankee prospects are 90% junk.

Dietz80
05-04-2005, 04:26 PM
Yeah, I'm not making this up. If it doesnt go through you can ban me for life.

It could have been knee jerk reactions by cincy and the yanks, but look out.

My source has been with the Clippers for three years. And NO, he's not a hot dog vender if that's what you think. He works in the press area.

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2005, 04:26 PM
This trade simply doesn't make much sense. we don't have much of a use for Wang. He's not really very good. We also don't need Cano very badly. We still have two options better than him. If we are going to trade Kearns it better be for a good, pitcher instead of trading for quantity. I wouldn't look too far into this rumor.

TC81190
05-04-2005, 04:27 PM
Friends are great sources of info.

HotCorner
05-04-2005, 04:27 PM
That would be a terrible trade for the Reds..yankee prospects are 90% junk.

Thank god we got two prospects of the 10%! :thumbup:

BRM
05-04-2005, 04:27 PM
That would be a terrible trade for the Reds..yankee prospects are 90% junk.

The Reds can certainly get a better return for Kearns...can't they?

flynn78
05-04-2005, 04:28 PM
I worry about rumor-mongering on our little minor league board here LOL! I don't know very much about what we would get in this deal. Does someone have stats on these two? Also, I fear another fleecing if pitching is involved. See: Ed Yarnall, Brandon Claussen

HotCorner
05-04-2005, 04:29 PM
Damn ... if he gets traded I'll have to get a new username.

NJReds
05-04-2005, 04:29 PM
The word here in NY is that the only reason Wang, Cano and now Hinn (P) tonight are in the big leagues is to showcase them. However the Yanks are looking for bullpen/pitching help. Although they'd probably plug Kearns in LF and move Womack back to 2B.

I'll keep an ear out to NY radio today. Haven't heard much about trades, except for the perpetual "Roger Clemens will be back in NY by July"

KronoRed
05-04-2005, 04:31 PM
Thank god we got two prospects of the 10%! :thumbup:

Would we? Only yankee prospect we have (and we sure have traded for a lot of them) that are any good is Wily mo :help:

prhof14
05-04-2005, 04:31 PM
Yankees don't have much to offer for Kearns... I think the Reds will hold out on trading Austin or WMP until they see if they can move JR first.

Blimpie
05-04-2005, 04:32 PM
The word here in NY is that the only reason Wang, Cano and now Hinn (P) tonight are in the big leagues is to showcase them. However the Yanks are looking for bullpen/pitching help. Although they'd probably plug Kearns in LF and move Womack back to 2B.

I'll keep an ear out to NY radio today. Haven't heard much about trades, except for the perpetual "Roger Clemens will be back in NY by July"Hey, we have a bullpen--don't we? :evil:

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2005, 04:32 PM
I worry about rumor-mongering on our little minor league board here LOL! I don't know very much about what we would get in this deal. Does someone have stats on these two? Also, I fear another fleecing if pitching is involved. See: Ed Yarnall, Brandon Claussen

We were far from fleeced in the Claussen trade. Boone did little for the Yanks besides the one clutch HR. Claussen still has quite a bit of upside. I wouldn't take back the trade for one minute.

flyer85
05-04-2005, 04:33 PM
This trade simply doesn't make much sense. we don't have much of a use for Wang. You never know ... might go well with a Bubba and a Bong.

pedro
05-04-2005, 04:33 PM
It's sounds like the kind of dumb thing DanO would do. Trade 1 good major league player for two marginal minor leaguers.

Wang Chien-ming is already 25 and hasn't done anything that impressive in the minors so far.

Cano is 23 and has a lifetime MINOR LEAGUE ops of .747 with an OBP of .326.

It would be a HORRIBLE trade. But that doesn't mean the Reds didn't consider it.

I'd trade them DJ for those two though.

HotCorner
05-04-2005, 04:34 PM
Would we? Only yankee prospect we have (and we sure have traded for a lot of them) that are any good is Wily mo :help:

I was referring to Wily Mo and Claussen. I took your 90% in historical contexts.

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2005, 04:34 PM
You never know ... might go well with a Bubba and a Bong.

Well I can't argue with that. ;)

CincyRedsFan30
05-04-2005, 04:35 PM
We really shouldn't worry too much about a deal happening.

Cano/Wang don't bring a "veteran prescence", so O'Brien will have no use for them. ;)

Puffy
05-04-2005, 04:36 PM
Wang's minor league numbers


Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO whip

2000 Staten Island NYPL 20 Nyy A 4 4 2.48 14 14 2 0 87.0 77 34 24 2 21 75 1.13
2002 Staten Island NYPL 22 Nyy A 6 1 1.72 13 13 0 0 0 0 78.1 63 23 15 2 14 64 1 2 0.98
2003 GCL Yankees GCL 23 Nyy Rk 0 0 0.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0.67
2003 Trenton East 23 Nyy AA 7 6 4.65 21 21 2 1 0 0 122.0 143 71 63 7 32 84 3 1.43

2004 Trenton East 24 Nyy AA 6 5 4.05 18 18 0 0 0 0 109.0 112 53 49 6 26 90 2 1.27
2004 Columbus IL 24 Nyy AAA 5 1 2.01 6 5 2 1 1 0 40.1 31 9 9 3 8 35 0 0.97
Minor League Totals: 4 years 28 17 3.28 73 72 6 2 1 0 439.7 428 190 160 20 101 350 6 2 8.76 0.41 2.07 7.16 1.20

TC81190
05-04-2005, 04:36 PM
Hey, the Reds staff met today, didn't they? This may happen, guys. :eek:

The_jbh
05-04-2005, 04:37 PM
I'd do that trade for jiminez but definately not Kearns

schroomytunes
05-04-2005, 04:39 PM
I'm tellen ya Kearns is the most likely to be traded. I would rather keep Dunn and Pena. Kearns' career could be great or it could be he never lives up to potential. I do know that if we can get Wang, Cabrera(AA) then we do it. Also, maybe we swap Griffey for Bernie or Kevin Brown one will happen stay tuned

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2005, 04:41 PM
I'm tellen ya Kearns is the most likely to be traded. I would rather keep Dunn and Pena. Kearns' career could be great or it could be he never lives up to potential. I do know that if we can get Wang, Cabrera(AA) then we do it. Also, maybe we swap Griffey for Bernie or Kevin Brown one will happen stay tuned

Cabrera isn't that good either. I don't see how that trade would help us.

gonelong
05-04-2005, 04:42 PM
The impression I have gotten from DanO over time is that he isn't all that high on Kearns.

This trade wouldn't suprise me a bit. That said I think its a disaster of trade if it goes down as advertised.

GL

M2
05-04-2005, 04:43 PM
I don't have a problem with dealing Kearns, but the one position where the Reds have the most depth is 2B. They need Cano like a third shoe.

TC81190
05-04-2005, 04:44 PM
Would it be better if they threw in Henn?

klw
05-04-2005, 04:44 PM
How about if they throw in Roberto KELLY? :D :D

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2005, 04:45 PM
I don't have a problem with dealing Kearns, but the one position where the Reds have the most depth is 2B. They need Cano like a third shoe.

That's exactly why this trade doesn't make sense. It appears this trade rumor is completely false.

WillPitch4Food
05-04-2005, 04:45 PM
I don't have a problem with dealing Kearns, but the one position where the Reds have the most depth is 2B. They need Cano like a third shoe.

True but you could turn around and package him with someone else here to a team that needs a good young 2B...

How long will we give Kearns to "pan out"? He's been pretty much hurt as much as Griffey but has been inconsistant at best when he's healthy... I don't know how much longer he will hold WMP off besides...

larryboy
05-04-2005, 04:46 PM
Bum deal Kearns for Yanks prospects. I'd rather see Griffey and cash to Seattle for Boone and a prospect. Not that Griffey is going anywhere but hypothetically it works.

Mr. Redlegs
05-04-2005, 04:46 PM
You've got to like the Cano kid. He still extremely young and is putting up great numbers this year in AAA. I've heard numerous scouts call him the next Jeter and from what i've seen he's got the glove and a great bat. Wang was 5-1 last year with a 2.01 ERA and was pitching well up to this point in the season.

The one guy that would seal the deal for me is the set up guy they have going in Columbus, Colter Bean. The man throws frisbee balls up to the plate and NOBODY can hit him. He's got a 0.77 ERA thus far this season and has been known to strike out the side when it counts. He's got 19 K's in 11.2 innings. If i'm not mistaken we desperately need some help in the bullpen. If the Yanks can throw him in there this trade would be perfect!

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2005, 04:47 PM
Would it be better if they threw in Henn?

Not really. Henn isn't much of a prospect. He looks more like a future middle reliever/loogy.

Steve4192
05-04-2005, 04:49 PM
In 80% of the trades where a major leaguer gets traded for a minor leaguer(s), the team getting the major leaguer makes out like a bandit. IMO, the ONLY reasons to trade a guy like kearns are (1) to make a major upgrade in an organizational weak spot or (2) get out from under a bad contract.

Kearns salary isn't an issue, so the question is do Cano/Wang provide a major upgrade at a weak spot?

Cano is pretty much limited to 2B, where the Reds have two competent major leaguers (Jiminez, Freel) and a high-minors prospect on ready to man the position in the near future (Bergolla). Cano certainly doesn't help the Reds at the MLB level, and I'm not sure he is represents an upgrade over Bergolla either. Pass.

Pitching is a big need for the Reds, but the question is does Wang project any better than the cast of thousands the Reds already have on hand? IMO, he ain't ready for the bigs yet, and he doesn't have the kind of upside that Pauly/Gardner/Bailey bring to the table. He's just another body. The Reds have plenty of bodies, what they don't have is QUALITY pitchers at the MLB level. Wang doesn't help to fix that. Pass.

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2005, 04:49 PM
The one guy that would seal the deal for me is the set up guy they have going in Columbus, Colter Bean. The man throws frisbee balls up to the plate and NOBODY can hit him. He's got a 0.77 ERA thus far this season and has been known to strike out the side when it counts. He's got 19 K's in 11.2 innings. If i'm not mistaken we desperately need some help in the bullpen. If the Yanks can throw him in there this trade would be perfect!

Bean isn't much of a prospect either. If we are going to deal Kearns we better not be getting a bunch of fringe Yankee prospects.

Mr. Redlegs
05-04-2005, 04:50 PM
Not really. Henn isn't much of a prospect. He looks more like a future middle reliever/loogy.
Yeah, he's not much of a prospect. He was going to be promoted to AAA but because of the pitching issues in NY they decided to go ahead and promote him to the big club for a chance.

That brings me right back to Wang. A couple of weeks ago I could see this trade working but now that the Yankees are desperate for starting pitching do they really want to give him up, or are they content with hitting the market for the big names?

KronoRed
05-04-2005, 04:50 PM
The yankees have nothing we want or need..their system is empty! we need a new trade partner.

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2005, 04:51 PM
That brings me right back to Wang. A couple of weeks ago I could see this trade working but now that the Yankees are desperate for starting pitching do they really want to give him up, or are they content with hitting the market for the big names?

If it gets them Kearns they will do it in a second.

redsrule2500
05-04-2005, 04:51 PM
This trade simply doesn't make much sense. we don't have much of a use for Wang. He's not really very good. We also don't need Cano very badly. We still have two options better than him. If we are going to trade Kearns it better be for a good, pitcher instead of trading for quantity. I wouldn't look too far into this rumor.

If it doesn't make sense, it's probably true ;)

The_jbh
05-04-2005, 04:52 PM
Don't forget Kevin Howard at 2B... He's hitting 341 with a 393 OBP 3 HRs at AA

He is very solid too

We have a lot of depth at 2B... no need for Cano.

This trade would be a disaster. If u are going to trade Kearns which i think is an awful idea, we BETTER get a Reitsma type reliever or a Scott Kazmir type prospect (which isnt happening)

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2005, 04:53 PM
This trade makes absolutely no sense from the Reds standpoint, which means it will happen. :thumbdown

WillPitch4Food
05-04-2005, 04:54 PM
If we trade Kearns and the Yankees are offering, maybe we should consider a 3 way trade where Wang/Cano go to another team needing prospects and we take a pitcher. Just a thought.

Patrick Bateman
05-04-2005, 04:54 PM
This trade would be a disaster. If u are going to trade Kearns which i think is an awful idea, we BETTER get a Reitsma type reliever or a Scott Kazmir type prospect (which isnt happening)

If we trade Kearns we need more then a set-up man. If a deal is going to be done we need a starting pitcher that is major league ready with some good potential. If nobody is offering that, then a trade shouldn't happen since it doesn't improve the team.

Reds Fanatic
05-04-2005, 04:55 PM
That would be a horrible trade. The Yankees have one of the worst minor league systems in all of baseball right now. The reason the Yankees basically just sign free agents is no one is interested in the players in their farm system right now for trades.

RosieRed
05-04-2005, 04:57 PM
In 80% of the trades where a major leaguer gets traded for a minor leaguer(s), the team getting the major leaguer makes out like a bandit. IMO, the ONLY reasons to trade a guy like kearns are (1) to make a major upgrade in an organizational weak spot or (2) get out from under a bad contract.

Kearns salary isn't an issue, so the question is do Cano/Wang provide a major upgrade at a weak spot?

Cano is pretty much limited to 2B, where the Reds have two competent major leaguers (Jiminez, Freel) and a high-minors prospect on ready to man the position in the near future (Bergolla). Cano certainly doesn't help the Reds at the MLB level, and I'm not sure he is represents an upgrade over Bergolla either. Pass.

Pitching is a big need for the Reds, but the question is does Wang project any better than the cast of thousands the Reds already have on hand? IMO, he ain't ready for the bigs yet, and he doesn't have the kind of upside that Pauly/Gardner/Bailey bring to the table. He's just another body. The Reds have plenty of bodies, what they don't have is QUALITY pitchers at the MLB level. Wang doesn't help to fix that. Pass.

Very well said.

smith288
05-04-2005, 05:39 PM
I'm tellen ya Kearns is the most likely to be traded. I would rather keep Dunn and Pena. Kearns' career could be great or it could be he never lives up to potential. I do know that if we can get Wang, Cabrera(AA) then we do it. Also, maybe we swap Griffey for Bernie or Kevin Brown one will happen stay tuned Marty would have a conipcion fit.... lol

smith288
05-04-2005, 05:40 PM
edit: dupe

Reds/Flyers Fan
05-04-2005, 06:05 PM
I'm not sure that wouldn't be a good trade. A lot of people here tend to have an overinflated opinion of Austin Kearns' worth. Really, what has this guy done at the ML level? Yankees fans may also be questioning this trade.

Crash Davis
05-04-2005, 06:07 PM
You've got to like the Cano kid. He still extremely young and is putting up great numbers this year in AAA. I've heard numerous scouts call him the next Jeter and from what i've seen he's got the glove and a great bat. Wang was 5-1 last year with a 2.01 ERA and was pitching well up to this point in the season.

The one guy that would seal the deal for me is the set up guy they have going in Columbus, Colter Bean. The man throws frisbee balls up to the plate and NOBODY can hit him. He's got a 0.77 ERA thus far this season and has been known to strike out the side when it counts. He's got 19 K's in 11.2 innings. If i'm not mistaken we desperately need some help in the bullpen. If the Yanks can throw him in there this trade would be perfect!

You don't have to like the Cano kid. Way overrated. Chances are he's not going to grow up to be any better than Jimenez, and he's certainly not better than him now. And, as has been mentioned, we have Jimenez ($2.5MM), Freel, Bergolla, Machado, Olmedo & Kevin Howard on the depth chart at that position.

Sean Henn is equally overrated. He's not even as highly touted as Yarnall and Claussen were when they were the "Yanks Golden Armed Lefty Du Jour"...and look what happened with those castoffs.

If Colter Bean is so good, how come the Yanks never pitch him? Is he filthy like Dan Reichert?

We go through this every year. A couple of overhyped Yanks prospects start out the season doing fairly well...after fluffing them up for a few weeks, the NY media has them traded to half the teams in the league for legit big league talent.

If you're going to trade Kearns, at least get something of equal value instead of a few hopeso's, maybe's and longshots.

Puffy
05-04-2005, 06:08 PM
I'm not sure that wouldn't be a good trade. A lot of people here tend to have an overinflated opinion of Austin Kearns' worth. Really, what has this guy done at the ML level? Yankees fans may also be questioning this trade.

While I agree that a lot here overinflate Austin's worth (me because he has never stayed healthy for a full year, minors or majors save for 1 year) if you are going to trade him you need more than the return proposed here.

The Reds have a glut of outfielders. They have no pitching. If you are gonna trade from a strength then get back a weakness. Wang is not the guy I want back pitching wise. JMO.

Aronchis
05-04-2005, 06:15 PM
I would trade Austin Kearns for either 2 types of packages:
1)The prefered choice would be for a "fairly high ceiling" young pitching prospect who has had success in the high minors and it about ready for a cup of coffey with a throw in added OR
2)A large package of prospects who are in A ball/starting in AA with 2 of them talent comparable to the talent of choice 1 but less developed naturally. I would want 2 of them since they are farther away from the show and farther away from projecting from reaching the Majors which increases risk of failure compared to the higher development of choice 1.

The "rumored" Yankee deal does not accomplish either of those criteria, so it must be rejected.

Mr. Redlegs
05-04-2005, 06:22 PM
You don't have to like the Cano kid. Way overrated. Chances are he's not going to grow up to be any better than Jimenez, and he's certainly not better than him now. And, as has been mentioned, we have Jimenez ($2.5MM), Freel, Bergolla, Machado, Olmedo & Kevin Howard on the depth chart at that position.
I'll tell you right now that Cano is better in every aspect than every single one of those guys. You can say he's overrated all you want but this kid is for real. Jimenez is a waste of space at 2nd and can't hit a bit. Freel is a hard nosed player that give you all he has, unfortunately that's not very much. Saying Bergolla, Machado and Olmedo are better than Cano is laughable. This trade would improve our second base position so much.


If Colter Bean is so good, how come the Yanks never pitch him? Is he filthy like Dan Reichert?
The Yankees have gone through frisbee ballers in the past and are scared to death to give this guy a try. I'm telling you, if this is the trade that is going to happen, adding Bean would be a great help to the pen.


If you're going to trade Kearns, at least get something of equal value instead of a few hopeso's, maybe's and longshots.
Kearns' value is not nearly as high as you think it is. These guys aren't playing for the Yankees because there is no spot for them on the roster, especially Cano. Let's not make Kearns out to be a God or anything. He's a good player, and that's it.

rdiersin
05-04-2005, 06:34 PM
From a Jim Callis(of BA) chat on espn.com



Matt (NY): Bigger upside, Robinson Cano or Chen-ming Wang?

Jim Callis: I'd say Cano, but I don't see either being the type of guy who can be a long-term regular for the Yankees. Cano can hit, but other clubs don't think he's a good defender at second base. Wang has a good arm but never really dominated in the minors, just pitched well, and every organization has a few guys like that.

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2005, 06:40 PM
Freel is a hard nosed player that give you all he has, unfortunately that's not very much.

Ryan Freel has a .459 OBP this year and stands at .374 for his major league career. Cano has never posted an OBP over .356(last year in 292 atbats in AA) in the MINORS, and owns just a career .326 OBP.

What makes Cano better than Freel?

Falls City Beer
05-04-2005, 06:41 PM
This would be worse than the Neagle to Yankees trade. The Reds would become a much worse team overnight.

westofyou
05-04-2005, 06:41 PM
What makes Cano better than Freel?

Less letters in his name? Easier to type when you're drinking.

OnBaseMachine
05-04-2005, 06:43 PM
Less letters in his name? Easier to type when you're drinking.

:laugh:

That's about the only reason.

DanO will make the trade because Cano rhymes with DanO. ;)

westofyou
05-04-2005, 06:44 PM
This would be worse than the Neagle to Yankees trade. The Reds would become a much worse team overnight.

Hal McRae for Roger Nelson & Richie Scheinblum much?

Falls City Beer
05-04-2005, 06:49 PM
Hal McRae for Roger Nelson & Richie Scheinblum much?

Obviously, no one can verify this rumor, but if DanO's Hieronymous Bosch vision of the Cincinnati Reds comes to fruition, this would be a cornerstone deal.

Mr. Redlegs
05-04-2005, 06:50 PM
Ryan Freel has a .459 OBP this year and stands at .374 for his major league career. Cano has never posted an OBP over .356(last year in 292 atbats in AA) in the MINORS, and owns just a career .326 OBP.

What makes Cano better than Freel?
At this point in his career, probably not much. Freel does a great job when he plays and I will not dispute that. I just look at a young guy like Cano and think we can get more out of him than a guy like Freel that has already peaked. I know the Yankees hype machine is working full force 24/7 and many prospects don't turn out to be that great, but I see a Derek Jeter type player when I look at Cano. When I look at Ryan Freel I see an everyday utility man.

Listen, I would like to work trades with other teams as well but other teams aren't listening. The Yankees want players now, and we're willing to give up players for some decent talent. Let's just see what happens with all of this. I'm guessing Kearns will be part of a trade if it happens, but that doesn't mean the Wang/Cano trade is going to be the other end of it for sure.

reds44
05-04-2005, 06:50 PM
If we trade Kearns and the Yankees are offering, maybe we should consider a 3 way trade where Wang/Cano go to another team needing prospects and we take a pitcher. Just a thought.

Maybe we should have a three way with the Jays and Yanks so we can pick up a Wang and Bush!

Crash Davis
05-04-2005, 06:53 PM
I'll tell you right now that Cano is better in every aspect than every single one of those guys. You can say he's overrated all you want but this kid is for real. Jimenez is a waste of space at 2nd and can't hit a bit. Freel is a hard nosed player that give you all he has, unfortunately that's not very much. Saying Bergolla, Machado and Olmedo are better than Cano is laughable. This trade would improve our second base position so much.

I don't buy that for a second. It's easy to say he's better than Jimenez when DJ opens the season not hitting. Wait until Jimenez gets hot and has his average up to .290 and OBP up to .370...better yet, why don't we go back in time about five years to when Jimenez was the chic overhyped Yanks middle infielder. The hype around Cano right now couldn't hold a candle to the hype surrounding Jimenez back then, but we're supposed to believe that Cano is so much better? What has he done that is so special? What is so impressive about his game? Cano is, what, a top 150 minor league prospect? Jimenez was top five when he was where Cano is now.

And why would you say Jimenez "can't hit a bit"? I guess it's easy to throw that around on May 4, 2005 because of his slow start. Jimenez had an OPS of .764 in 2003 and .758 last season. Cano's was about .700 in high A & AA in 2003 and about .790 in AA & AAA last season. I'm not gaga over what DJ gives us as a 2B, but I'm not sure Cano gives us anything we need.

This reminds me a lot of the guys who were on here begging the Reds to trade for AAA superstud Erick Almonte two or three years ago...you know, being the next Derek Jeter and all. That next Jeter was released, bounced around a couple of AAA squads and now eats too much Sushi. Another next Derek Jeter currently plays 2B for own Cincinnati Reds. How many next Derek Jeter's does a team need.


Kearns' value is not nearly as high as you think it is. These guys aren't playing for the Yankees because there is no spot for them on the roster, especially Cano. Let's not make Kearns out to be a God or anything. He's a good player, and that's it.

Exactly. If Kearns' value is not nearly as high I think it is, then this is the absolute worst time to deal him. If nobody else likes him as much as I do, then I'd keep him. We'll talk again after he goes on a tear in a couple weeks. What do I care if the rest of the league or other team's fans don't think Kearns carries much trade value? I know he's good. I don't need their validation. I'm happy to keep him as a building block, thank you very much.

You could say the exact same thing about Dunn a year and half ago (and many here did so). How high was his value when a third of redszone wanted him traded straight up for Edwin Jackson? Who cares how high the value is?

Judge the talent, not the value.

If you're a GM, you can't be swayed by public opinion and hot streaks. You're a shiny white golf ball in the middle of the fairway.

Golgafrinchan
05-04-2005, 06:54 PM
At this point in his career, probably not much. Freel does a great job when he plays and I will not dispute that. I just look at a young guy like Cano and think we can get more out of him than a guy like Freel that has already peaked. I know the Yankees hype machine is working full force 24/7 and many prospects don't turn out to be that great, but I see a Derek Jeter type player when I look at Cano. When I look at Ryan Freel I see an everyday utility man.
Thinking Jeter is pretty optimstic, I'd say.
Both reached AAA at 21. Jeter's OPS: .818. Cano: .719 (partial season)

Actually, Jeter reached AAA at the end of his age 20 season, after posting .809 and .963 OPS's in high A and AA that same year.

In Jeter's age 22 season, he posted an .800 OPS with the Yankees. If Cano is to become something like Jeter, he needs to catch up fast.

Puffy
05-04-2005, 07:25 PM
Obviously, no one can verify this rumor, but if DanO's Hieronymous Bosch vision of the Cincinnati Reds comes to fruition, this would be a cornerstone deal.

Is that Hieronymous Bosch the artist or Hieronymous Bosch, the decective in Michael Connelly's books?

Falls City Beer
05-04-2005, 07:28 PM
Is that Hieronymous Bosch the artist or Hieronymous Bosch, the decective in Michael Connelly's books?

The former "Garden of Earthly Delights" guy--hellish, hallucinatory visions.

flyer85
05-04-2005, 08:16 PM
2b is not the the Reds problem

Mr. Redlegs
05-04-2005, 08:18 PM
2b is not the the Reds problem
"Everywhere" is the Reds problem.

wheels
05-04-2005, 08:34 PM
Kearns has been playing every day.

Wily Mo suddenly has an "injury".

Cano and Wang were both called up by the yanks.

Cano was inserted as the starting second baseman, moving Womack into the OUTFIELD, a place he's rarely played.

All the pieces of this deal are being prominently displayed by the respective clubs.

This deal is going down, folks, and it's one of the worst deals I've ever seen.

The entire front office of the Cincinnati Reds should walk the plank for this one.

If you're gonna deal somebody, for goodness' sake, address a NEED. That's what trades are supposed to be all about.

I'm stunned.

This is a bad time to be a Reds fan.

flyer85
05-04-2005, 08:40 PM
"Everywhere" is the Reds problem.I'd say the problem is pretty specific

Tony Cloninger
05-04-2005, 08:41 PM
It's a horrible deal but i also think you are being paranoid.

I think WMP really was hurt and that's why Kearns was playing.

I hope the Reds are not looking at Kearns and seeing a Curt Blefary. A guy who shows early promise but then gets injured and loses it.

We know the Yanks are the most desperate to trade right now but their good prospects are below Double AA and that's just not going to help this team right now.

wheels
05-04-2005, 08:48 PM
There's alot of stuff happening that kinda fits in with what's been discussed in this thread.

I don't feel paranoid. :p:

I just can't help it.....It all adds up to me.

Tony Cloninger
05-04-2005, 08:53 PM
Just beacuse i'm paranoid ....doesn't mean it's not true. :thumbup:

Which goes back to another aggrevating REds OF trait...with the exception of Dunn....all the other 3 OF's get injured..way too much. WMP has a thing for getting his legs hurt or tweaked. Always seems to stop him from totally taking off.

Aronchis
05-04-2005, 08:57 PM
The problem with this deal is Cano. With Jimenez, Freel,Bergolla and Howard, why do you need to deal for ANOTHER second baseman? Jimenez is moving out and Bergolla going as well would be the only answer.

I don't buy this with much validity concerning that DanO has probably been offered more in the past and turned it down.

flyer85
05-04-2005, 09:00 PM
I think it is much ado about nothing. DanO can't even pull the trigger on a bullpen move

wheels
05-04-2005, 09:26 PM
The problem with this deal is Cano. With Jimenez, Freel,Bergolla and Howard, why do you need to deal for ANOTHER second baseman? Jimenez is moving out and Bergolla going as well would be the only answer.

I don't buy this with much validity concerning that DanO has probably been offered more in the past and turned it down.

You make good points, but....

Two things:

Kearns hasn't done much to make his stock rise this season.

Dan O'brien has shown that his baseball acumen has been irreversibly comprimised over the last few months.

Maybe he fell down a flight of steps or something, but the guy's been making me shake my head since the Ramon Ortiz trade.

Doesn't seem like a smart GM to me.

A better GM would pass on any deal involving the Yankees.

DanO, on the other hand, thinks it's okay to bring in yet another second baseman, and a suspect bullpen arm in exchange for Austin Kearns of all people.

Simply put, he's nuts, and I can totally see him making this deal.

This is the guy that gave Eric Milton a lucritive, long term deal.

Marc D
05-04-2005, 09:37 PM
This is the guy that gave Eric Milton a lucritive, long term deal.

And thats pretty much all that ever needs to be said regarding our beloved GM.

LoganBuck
05-04-2005, 09:56 PM
I think this all posturing. I don't doubt for a second the Yanks want Kearns, and I don't doubt the Reds are listening. They are probably actively scouting the Yankees. I think all the points about Wang and Cano, are probably the reason this trade has not gone down, and probably will not, at least not for these particular players.

Redsfaithful
05-04-2005, 10:17 PM
Surely Oakland would give us more than that for Kearns. If we want to deal Kearns for garbage we could at least get a better brand of trash than what the Yankees are selling.

johngalt
05-05-2005, 12:16 AM
I think it's time to cut bait on one of these guys and get some kind of return. The current state isn't working, so it might be time for a change.

MWM
05-05-2005, 12:40 AM
I think it's time to cut bait on one of these guys and get some kind of return. The current state isn't working, so it might be time for a change.

Now I'm REALLY concerned this deal is going down. Is that REALLY what they're thinking? Lord help us all.

MWM
05-05-2005, 12:41 AM
Surely Oakland would give us more than that for Kearns. If we want to deal Kearns for garbage we could at least get a better brand of trash than what the Yankees are selling.

I don't doubt that, but I do doubt whether or not DanO can discern trash from treasure (see Weathers, Weber, Milton).

WVPacman
05-05-2005, 12:50 AM
Trade Kearns to the Nationals JB always liked him as a hitter.We could get one of their starting Pitchers in return.Who is on of their good pitchers name?? Don't L Hernandez play for them.

LoganBuck
05-05-2005, 12:55 AM
I would rather do business with Washington than the Yankees. Washington does have some parts that I would like.

WVPacman
05-05-2005, 01:00 AM
I would rather do business with Washington than the Yankees. Washington does have some parts that I would like.

Exactly,thats why I brung this up!! The Yankees burn us everytime we trade with them.Its time to try another team like Washington if they burn us then we move to another team.

Ron Madden
05-05-2005, 03:53 AM
I hope and pray this to be a false rumor. :thumbdown

I believe the Yanks farm system is void of the talent and upside
we have in Austin Kearns. Kearns is going through a rough start right now. If he plays everyday he'll be fine. :thumbup: George has already traded most of his prospects to load up the 25 man roster.

Steve4192
05-05-2005, 07:32 AM
The Yankees burn us everytime we trade with them.
I don't know about that.

Wily Mo Pena for Drew Henson worked out pretty well. So did Hal Morris for Tim Leary. Plus, even though it looked horrible at the time, the Denny Neagle deal doesn't look all that bad in retrospect. The Reds unloaded a huge contract obligation on a guy whose career was about to implode, and got a guy who they later flipped for Wily Mo Pena. The stink wore off of the Boone deal when Aaron went down in a pickup hoops game. As it stands now, only the Paul O'Neill trade 15 years ago was a huge loss for the Reds.

LexingtonRedsFan
05-05-2005, 08:26 AM
If DanO is serious about moving Kearns, then he better be calling every team and not just the Yanks

registerthis
05-05-2005, 08:46 AM
Exactly,thats why I brung this up!! The Yankees burn us everytime we trade with them.Its time to try another team like Washington if they burn us then we move to another team.
Except the Henson-Pena trade. That one sort of worked out in our favor. ;)

johngalt
05-05-2005, 09:30 AM
Now I'm REALLY concerned this deal is going down. Is that REALLY what they're thinking? Lord help us all.

I could see it going through their minds.

I always have felt that certain teams or groups of players have a window to either break through to that next level or hit a ceiling. I just don't see this core of Kearns/Dunn/Casey/LaRue/Griffey/Graves/etc. going anywhere. I would target 1-2 pieces to keep and then make some deals/moves to try to build something else. Sometimes different combinations work where others didn't.

OldXOhio
05-05-2005, 10:32 AM
I could see it going through their minds.

I always have felt that certain teams or groups of players have a window to either break through to that next level or hit a ceiling. I just don't see this core of Kearns/Dunn/Casey/LaRue/Griffey/Graves/etc. going anywhere. I would target 1-2 pieces to keep and then make some deals/moves to try to build something else. Sometimes different combinations work where others didn't.

Agreed, so give Graves away to anyone, anywhere, anytime (the closer he gets to the end of this contract season, the less a financial risk he becomes) and deal Casey by the deadline to a contender. Trading away Kearns, at least at this point, would be a huge mistake and one that we as Reds fans will regret for a long, long time.

MWM
05-05-2005, 11:02 AM
I could see it going through their minds.

I always have felt that certain teams or groups of players have a window to either break through to that next level or hit a ceiling. I just don't see this core of Kearns/Dunn/Casey/LaRue/Griffey/Graves/etc. going anywhere. I would target 1-2 pieces to keep and then make some deals/moves to try to build something else. Sometimes different combinations work where others didn't.

The problem with that line of thinking is that it places responsibility for the Reds lack of performance on the "core" of players you mentioned. Graves is the only pitcher in that list. Certainly you and the powers that be understand it's not the core players that's keeping this team from being decent? Don't you?

And I even don't have a problem with trading one of those guys. I think they should probably find out what they can get. But are you honestly telling me that this is the best they can do? Or does DanO really believe Wang and Cano are players worthy of trading a player with the ability of Kearns? Please tell me they're considering other offers than this one. If this trade goes through, it will be the low point for me as a fan. Not because of the actualy players, but because of what it says about the competence of those in charge. A trade is this ineptitude would be so incredibally symbolic of what they're all about that it would be downright depressing for me personally. But hey, I'm sure I'll get the "DanO's a major league GM. He's been doing this his whole life. You're just some guy on the internet." But if this is what DanO thinks is going to put the franchise in a better position to win either now or in the future, then we're in trouble. I don't care how long he's been doing this, this trade, if it goes through, is an embarassment.

flyer85
05-05-2005, 11:11 AM
I never have any idea what DanO is thinking. We need a hidden microph....

NJReds
05-05-2005, 11:12 AM
There is almost no buzz here in NY about a potential trade with the Reds (or anyone else).

What is going around is speculation that the GM Cashman may get fired.

As for names...there's the Griffey rumor that wouldn't die, and some Preston Wilson talk.

smith288
05-05-2005, 12:11 PM
The Yankees burn us everytime we trade with them..

Nah...the Marlins do... May the Marlins be on the Reds trading partner blacklist forever. ;)

alexad
05-05-2005, 12:14 PM
There is almost no buzz here in NY about a potential trade with the Reds (or anyone else).

What is going around is speculation that the GM Cashman may get fired.

As for names...there's the Griffey rumor that wouldn't die, and some Preston Wilson talk.

Maybe we can get Cashman as our GM and then he can bring Joe with him after he gets fired.

Red Rover
05-05-2005, 12:35 PM
The Yanks have little in the way of prospects, so the only way you deal with them at this juncture is to try and unload a contract. Griffey or Casey, maybe even Graves.

klw
05-05-2005, 12:49 PM
With both the Kearns rumor and the Griffey rumor, I almost see this as playing out as an internal battle between Cashman and Stienbrenner. I see Cashman wanting Kearns with Griffey being favored by Steinbrenner and the two battling over which direction to take. Kearns as the O'Neil type cornerstone versus Griffey's HOF credentials and the short porch homers drawing in the Boss. Whenver I think about this it ends with a Steinbrenneresque voice saying "Costanza! Get me a Griffey! I don't care which but get me a Griffey!"

registerthis
05-05-2005, 01:11 PM
There is almost no buzz here in NY about a potential trade with the Reds (or anyone else).

What is going around is speculation that the GM Cashman may get fired.

As for names...there's the Griffey rumor that wouldn't die, and some Preston Wilson talk.
What has Cashman done, really? They haven't won a championship in 5 years, yet their payroll remains astronomically high. Anyone can put a team on the field for $200 million that will win some games, you don't have to be a genius to do that. But the NY farm system is severely depleted, they have a number of underperforming vets on their team that are soaking up huge amounts of $$$ (people complain about Milton, but what if we had Kevin Brown), and the $200 million team is treading water with the Devil Rays.

That seems to be a plague of many NY teams these days--Yanks, mets, rangers, Knicks, etc. Impossibly large payrolls, nothing to show for it.

NJReds
05-05-2005, 01:51 PM
What has Cashman done, really? They haven't won a championship in 5 years, yet their payroll remains astronomically high. Anyone can put a team on the field for $200 million that will win some games, you don't have to be a genius to do that. But the NY farm system is severely depleted, they have a number of underperforming vets on their team that are soaking up huge amounts of $$$ (people complain about Milton, but what if we had Kevin Brown), and the $200 million team is treading water with the Devil Rays.

That seems to be a plague of many NY teams these days--Yanks, mets, rangers, Knicks, etc. Impossibly large payrolls, nothing to show for it.

The problem is that the "Boss" also is somewhat responsible for some of those deals. It's not all Cashman.

The guy that seems to escape all criticism is Stottlemyre. It seems like every pitcher that goes to NY gets worse, yet Mel never gets called out.

registerthis
05-05-2005, 01:56 PM
The problem is that the "Boss" also is somewhat responsible for some of those deals. It's not all Cashman.

The guy that seems to escape all criticism is Stottlemyre. It seems like every pitcher that goes to NY gets worse, yet Mel never gets called out.
Oh, I agree...on all counts. Who was the last pitcher to go to NY and get *better*? Mike Mussina had some comparable years in Baltimore and NY, but...kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, Jeff Weaver, etc. None of them improved once they got to NY...and those are just from the past couple of years. Randy Johnson has been far from the dominating pitcher he was in AZ also, so the trend might be continuing.

WillPitch4Food
05-05-2005, 03:01 PM
The guy that seems to escape all criticism is Stottlemyre. It seems like every pitcher that goes to NY gets worse, yet Mel never gets called out.


Does that sound like any other coach we know around here? Hmmm.... ;)

traderumor
05-05-2005, 03:06 PM
Nah...the Marlins do... May the Marlins be on the Reds trading partner blacklist forever. ;)I'm about as skeptical about Florida pitchers as Atlanta arms for different reasons. Its the Mazzone factor for taking Braves rejects, but its the park factor as the primary reason to stay away from Marlins chuckers. Although, I would not hesitate to take AJ Burnett off their hands.

missionhockey21
05-05-2005, 03:21 PM
If AJ is 100% healthy, I'd trade for him in a heartbeat. It would be fantastic to have a legit strikeout pitcher like himself who can go the distance.

gm
05-05-2005, 03:30 PM
Plus, even though it looked horrible at the time, the Denny Neagle deal doesn't look all that bad in retrospect. The Reds unloaded a huge contract obligation on a guy whose career was about to implode, and got a guy who they later flipped for Wily Mo Pena.

Denny Neagle for Drew Henson for Wily Mo Pena is still a below-average result: Bowden had a veteran lefthanded starter who had won 14 of his last 16 NL decisions and traded Denny with 2+ weeks remaining until the trade deadline for 4 prospects who are no longer on the ML radar. Even taking Neagle's contract status (FA year) into consideration, a better return was highly probable at the end of July. (Knowing in hindsight that Neagle would implode in August does not let JimBo off the hook for jumping the gun in July.)

In retrospect, getting Pena for Henson was outstanding, especially after Drew made it clear that he wouldn't play for Cincy. But with his contract WMP was a developmental crapshoot; what's really amazing is that Pena can actually hit ML pitching considering how few live ABs he had in 2002-2004. The jury is still out on WMP's future, mostly because his hammies and quads are wound so tight.

Trade Kearns and you can forget about signing his buddy Dunn to a LTC. The 'A' boys are a package deal, don't split 'em up

M2
05-05-2005, 03:49 PM
Denny Neagle for Drew Henson for Wily Mo Pena is still a below-average result: Bowden had a veteran lefthanded starter who had won 14 of his last 16 NL decisions and traded Denny with 2+ weeks remaining until the trade deadline for 4 prospects who are no longer on the ML radar. Even taking Neagle's contract status (FA year) into consideration, a better return was highly probable at the end of July. (Knowing in hindsight that Neagle would implode in August does not let JimBo off the hook for jumping the gun in July.)

In retrospect, getting Pena for Henson was outstanding, especially after Drew made it clear that he wouldn't play for Cincy. But with his contract WMP was a developmental crapshoot; what's really amazing is that Pena can actually hit ML pitching considering how few live ABs he had in 2002-2004. The jury is still out on WMP's future, mostly because his hammies and quads are wound so tight.

Trade Kearns and you can forget about signing his buddy Dunn to a LTC. The 'A' boys are a package deal, don't split 'em up

I agree whole-heartedly about Neagle. He was worth a lot at the time and the initial trade the club made for him sucked eggs.

As for Dunn and Kearns, you can't let that guide you. Sooner or later they'll be on different teams. First and foremost, it's going to take gobs and gobs of money to sign Dunn. If touchy feely stuff is going to drive him away I submit his relationship with the club isn't that good. Plus, the Reds can't afford to avoid or postpone hard choices that have to be made because they've got a lower tier ballclub that enjoys each other's company.

Cedric
05-05-2005, 03:52 PM
Exactly. You can't make decisions on any single player based on another. That's just setting your roster up for disaster. I sorta compare it with high school players that say they are a "package" deal for a school recruiting them. I'd never go with that, too many variables.

Steve4192
05-05-2005, 04:52 PM
Knowing in hindsight that Neagle would implode in August does not let JimBo off the hook for jumping the gun in July.
I agree with you on that point. Bowden did not get a good return for what should have been a very valuable commodity.

My point is that the Yankees did not fleece the Reds on the Neagle deal. By definition, in order to fleece someone in a trade you have to get a whole lot more production out of the guys on your end than your trade partner gets out of the guys on his end. In the Negale deal, neither team wound up with anything worthwhile. It was a lose-lose proposition.

When baseball analysts look at the Neagle deal 50 years from now, they will classify it as a 'garbage in, garbage out' kind of deal, where neither team really benefitted. OTOH, when they look at the O'Neill for Kelly trade, they are going to snicker and say the Reds got fleeced.

WillPitch4Food
05-05-2005, 05:04 PM
When baseball analysts look at the Neagle deal 50 years from now...

Boy do I hope analysts aren't talking about Neagle 50 years from now... if they are, God help baseball... :) ;)

gm
05-05-2005, 06:53 PM
Sooner or later they'll be on different teams. First and foremost, it's going to take gobs and gobs of money to sign Dunn. If touchy feely stuff is going to drive him away I submit his relationship with the club isn't that good. Plus, the Reds can't afford to avoid or postpone hard choices that have to be made because they've got a lower tier ballclub that enjoys each other's company.

Until the decision is made in Dunn's mind to stay or leave via FA, the Reds should do everything in their power to stay in his good graces. If Adam perceives the Red's FO is dissing his buddy he may decide to just play out the string in Cincy, or ask for the moon come contract time.

What the Red's can't afford to avoid is knowing where they stand re: the future status of Dunn, Kearns and Pena.

gm
05-05-2005, 06:59 PM
My point is that the Yankees did not fleece the Reds on the Neagle deal.

Gotcha. The Yankees just came along and gave JimBo an offer they knew he couldn't refuse...and fortunately for Bowden, Neagle bombed in NY.

I wonder how many Yankee fans continue to discuss the Henson for Pena deal?

M2
05-05-2005, 07:25 PM
Until the decision is made in Dunn's mind to stay or leave via FA, the Reds should do everything in their power to stay in his good graces. If Adam perceives the Red's FO is dissing his buddy he may decide to just play out the string in Cincy, or ask for the moon come contract time.

What the Red's can't afford to avoid is knowing where they stand re: the future status of Dunn, Kearns and Pena.

They already don't know, by way of the team's own actions (or in this case inaction).

Sorry, but I don't agree with running your ballclub contrary to your better judgment in order to placate guy who's may not be around in three years anyway. If the Reds really care about signing Adam Dunn what they'd do is sit down with his agent, insist on working out a long-term deal and not take no for an answer.

gm
05-05-2005, 07:58 PM
If the Reds really care about signing Adam Dunn what they'd do is sit down with his agent, insist on working out a long-term deal and not take no for an answer.

Agreed, but we both know that this will not happen until the offseason. In the meantime, there are games for Adam/Austin to appear in...

If they already sounded out Adam re: a LTC last offseason and the response was tepid, then he should be the one who's quietly being shopped.

M2
05-05-2005, 08:07 PM
Agreed, but we both know that this will not happen until the offseason. In the meantime, there are games for Adam/Austin to appear in...

If they already sounded out Adam re: a LTC last offseason and the response was tepid, then he should be the one who's quietly being shopped.

I don't think you can quietly shop any of these guys, especially Dunn. In fact you probably want to do it loudly in Dunn's case to drive the price through the roof.

Anyway, if the Reds aren't willing to talk extension with Dunn until the offseason then I submit they aren't that serious about locking him up and there's no point to making decisions based on what you think his reaction might be. If the Reds really care about this, they could head the problem off at the pass today.

And if the club's completely incapable of getting Dunn to consider a LTC then there's no point in placating him.

gm
05-05-2005, 11:56 PM
If the Reds really care about this, they could head the problem off at the pass today.

And if the club's completely incapable of getting Dunn to consider a LTC then there's no point in placating him.

Who's to say the team didn't speak with Dunn's representative following last season, and the two sides mutually decided to revisit the issue next fall? Until there's a public announcement (LTC signed, trade, Dunn filing for FA, etc) all we can do is speculate. And my take is that it can't hurt the club to take Adam's feelings into consideration when dealing with Kearns.

A month ago there was no question of Austin's ability, since then the team has faced the best pitchers the NL has to offer and most of the Red's hitters have had their ups and downs. Why single out Kearns? He's going to need reps to recover his timing, just like the steady ABs Casey and Junior received

M2
05-06-2005, 12:26 AM
Who's to say the team didn't speak with Dunn's representative following last season, and the two sides mutually decided to revisit the issue next fall?

If that's the case then I don't think it qualifies as a priority issue for the Reds. You argued nothing can be done with Kearns because it might alienate Dunn. My counterargument is A) If that's going to make it so that Dunn would never sign long-term, then the current chances of signing him reside between slim and none and B) If the team actually were being guided by the fear that it might lose Dunn, then the quickest way to resolve those fears is to sign him. There's also C) It's a bass-ackwards way to run a competitive enterprise.

If the Reds decided not to talk LTC with Dunn until after the season then it's not such a burning issue with them and I don't see why they'd care what he thought about a Kearns trade.


A month ago there was no question of Austin's ability, since then the team has faced the best pitchers the NL has to offer and most of the Red's hitters have had their ups and downs. Why single out Kearns? He's going to need reps to recover his timing, just like the steady ABs Casey and Junior received

It's been two years since Kearns was on his game. When will the worm turn? Don't know. In the meantime he's an asset, to keep or to trade. The Reds would be foolish not to consider their options.

gm
05-06-2005, 12:53 AM
I don't see why they'd care what he thought about a Kearns trade.

Well, I'm operating under the assumption that the FO is thinking they can't afford to lose both Kearns and Dunn to free agency. Maybe I've misread the situation and the team won't care if they deal Austin and Adam walks. WMP would be a decent consolation prize, but there would hypothetically be a couple of corner positions to fill and there's not much OF talent in the pipeline


It's been two years since Kearns was on his game. When will the worm turn? Don't know. In the meantime he's an asset, to keep or to trade. The Reds would be foolish not to consider their options.

I thought Kearns was back on his game at Sarasota? Ballplayers need time (and consistent reps) to recover following injuries/surgery, and Austin's had more than his share of setbacks. Besides, now would be a lousy time to deal him, since "selling low" is another back-assward way of running a competitive enterprise

M2
05-06-2005, 01:18 AM
Well, I'm operating under the assumption that the FO is thinking they can't afford to lose both Kearns and Dunn to free agency. Maybe I've misread the situation and the team won't care if they deal Austin and Adam walks. WMP would be a decent consolation prize, but there would hypothetically be a couple of corner positions to fill and there's not much OF talent in the pipeline.

IMO, people have to stop thinking of them in tandem. Austin Kearns is no Adam Dunn. And, again, if the organization has some great concern about losing Adam Dunn then it ought to take immediate steps to rectify the situation. That's what you do if this is some sort of priority.


I thought Kearns was back on his game at Sarasota? Ballplayers need time (and consistent reps) to recover following injuries/surgery, and Austin's had more than his share of setbacks. Besides, now would be a lousy time to deal him, since "selling low" is another back-assward way of running a competitive enterprise.

So you're now putting stock in ST numbers? I'm glad Austin hit the ball well there (though it was mostly early on where he piled up the stats), but I'm talking about games that count.

IMO, the operating fallacy you've got is that Kearns' value can't go lower. I've been hearing that for awhile now and it keeps dropping. It can go a lot lower. Can the Reds get a decent return for him? I don't know, but I do think there's clubs out there (stats-minded ones) who'll overvalue Kearns at this moment (or perhaps I should make that highly covet him despite his recent struggles). I'd find out how far they're willing to go. If this club finally admits to itself that it needs a real rebuilding then some sacred cows are going to slaughter.

My preference is to deal off the parts not named Adam Dunn and Wily Mo Pena. If the Reds don't think Dunn's going to stick around, then they have to look for a jackpot on him too.

gm
05-06-2005, 01:52 AM
IMO, the operating fallacy you've got is that Kearns' value can't go lower. I've been hearing that for awhile now and it keeps dropping. It can go a lot lower.

IMO, the best ways to ensure that Kearn's trade value drops is to 1) bench him, 2) fail to debunk trade rumors, 3) send him to Louisville to pout. If the Reds continue to give Austin regular ABs and he fails to improve, then they missed the opportune window to deal him, back in mid-2002. My memory is conveniently hazy...were you advocating a Kearns trade at the time?

I advocate patience, there's precious little of it going around here these days. As we've seen, the odds of Kearns, Griffey and Pena being healthy on a given day are almost as rare as a plea for patience from yours truly ;)

M2
05-06-2005, 02:27 AM
IMO, the best ways to ensure that Kearn's trade value drops is to 1) bench him, 2) fail to debunk trade rumors, 3) send him to Louisville to pout. If the Reds continue to give Austin regular ABs and he fails to improve, then they missed the opportune window to deal him, back in mid-2002. My memory is conveniently hazy...were you advocating a Kearns trade at the time?

There's never been a time where I wouldn't have been willing to deal Kearns. That doesn't mean I want to give him away or even that I want the team to trade him. It's just that I've always been open to the notion that the Reds could shore up other areas by moving him.

I'll take the other stuff by number - 1) I wouldn't bench him, I'd bench Jr., 2) I think trade rumors might actually pump up his value because I believe a number of teams might be interested in acquiring his services, 3) The team can't send him to Louisville and I'd think it was a bad idea even if they could.

Jpup
05-06-2005, 04:00 AM
realistically speaking, what could the Reds get for Adam Dunn? for Austin Kearns? for Willy Mo Pena?

I think that Adam Dunn would trade Austin Kearns if he thought that it would mean a winner. Since Kearns came up, I said that I wouldn't trade him, but I am so sick of seeing the Reds lose that I would trade anyone.

For Adam Dunn, I think they could get a Major League #2 and a very highly touted pitching prospect. I don't see them getting a Prior, Santana, Sheets kind of guy straight up for him. I am not sure you could get any of those three period but you see my point. Unless you can get 3 players that will really contribute by next season then I don't think you can trade him. So, to me, that means signing him long term and building this franchise around him.

For Austin Kearns, i am not really sure. Maybe a #3 type and a prospect? That's probably over stepping his worth to other teams, but I would demand that, at least.

For Willy Mo, probably about the same as Kearns, but I think his stock is a little higher than Kearns right now to some teams.

So, this is what I would do. We can't trade Jr., at least not right now, due to his salary. I would trade Kearns and Pena for 2 ML pitchers and a couple prospects with at least 1 being a year away pitcher. That's my idea, trade them both for what this teams needs, a pitching staff.

That is where I would start, outfielders are much easier to come by than good pitchers. We have had an ace type pitcher in Cincinnati for 15 years and it's time that something changes. A new gM would also be a step in the right direction.

REDREAD
05-06-2005, 10:53 AM
The impression I have gotten from DanO over time is that he isn't all that high on Kearns.
GL

Agree with you on that. DanO seems to have been shopping Kearns a lot.
It would make sense that the Reds are "showcasing" Kearns by keeping Wily Mo on the bench too.