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WVPacman
05-14-2005, 01:57 AM
PHILADELPHIA - For the last few weeks, Adam Dunn has moped around whatever clubhouse the Reds happened to be occupying. More than once, he has said he just isn't having fun.

Thursday night didn't precipitate an immediate change in Dunn's demeanor - possibly because he detests talking about home runs almost as much as he does losing. Almost as much.

Dunn had to talk about home runs Thursday night because he hit a pair of them, long ones, to give the Reds a rare lead they didn't squander. And he got to talk about winning after the bullpen held on for a 7-5 victory against the struggling Phillies.

He did most of it with his usual self-deprecation, but a few rays of optimism shone through.

"If you win, it's fun - I don't care how good you do or how bad you do," he said. "If you win, you can't help but have fun. For us, playing the way we are, that's miserable for me and I know it's miserable for everybody else."

The present tense in his final sentence is a reflex honed over the last week. Twice before, Saturday against the Dodgers and Tuesday against the Padres, the Reds thought they had nailed down their turnaround win. That hasn't turned out to be the case, of course, but every winning streak starts at one game, and the Reds will have at least a day to believe this was the one.

Though their pitching remains dangerously prone to implosion, the Reds would like to believe their lineup is capable of muscling its way to at least a short string of victories. Thursday night was not the only instance of that this season, but it had been a while.

The power came suddenly for the Reds against Phillies starter Jon Lieber. The right-hander, who had entered the game with a 5-1 record, faced the minimum number of Cincinnati batters through four innings. With a 2-0 lead for Lieber to play with, it looked like another one of those nights for the Reds, losers of 15 of their previous 19 games.

Then Ken Griffey Jr. singled to lead off the fifth and Dunn jumped on Lieber's first offering for a two-run homer to right, tying the game.

The very next inning, now trailing 3-2, the Reds' table-setters for the evening, Felipe Lopez and D'Angelo Jimenez, drew walks. After Sean Casey flied out to left, Griffey singled in Lopez to bring Dunn to the plate.

Again, Dunn let it rip on Lieber's first pitch, and the contact produced one of his more spectacular shots of the year, a rocket that landed in the flowerbed just short of the visiting bullpen.

To hear Dunn tell it, you'd think he was blindfolded and taking his cuts at a piņata. But there was a plan involved. He figured, with Lieber's exceptional command, that getting behind in the count would be a very bad idea. So he went up there hacking.

The fact that both balls left the park and five Reds runs crossed the plate because of them was just a happy accident.

"I just hit 'em," he said. "I mean, it's just part of the game. It's not something I go up there thinking about trying to do. I kind of have an idea how he's going to pitch me and I swing hard in case I hit it."

That hadn't happened nearly as much as Dunn would have preferred during the Reds' troubles. He came to the plate in the fifth inning in a 5-for-37 (.135) slump. Far more importantly, he had driven in only two runs - both on solo homers - in his previous 13 games.

For the Reds to have any chance of emerging from their prolonged skid, they need Dunn to drive in runs. He knows it and everyone around him knows it. Which is why the situations in which he came through Thursday night were particularly important.

"The biggest thing was, guys were on base," said Austin Kearns. "We've been struggling when guys are on base, and we needed something. I'm glad Dunner was able to do what he did; that was big for us."

At any given point in a season, every team will have different players going through hot and cold stretches. Throughout the season that began with the Joe Randa Show, the Reds have had a definite imbalance between those two groups - which wouldn't be a concern if all the weight was on the positive side of the scale.

Griffey has been hitting for a couple of weeks, and Lopez has done more than his share lately. The problem has been finding the combination of streaking hitters in the same inning.

If Dunn can expand on Thursday's showing, the Reds could clear a significant hurdle in their race back toward .500.

"He's capable of getting on a roll like that," said manager Dave Miley.

Given the right confluence of events, the team itself wouldn't mind adopting that statement as its own. Dunn would be right at the front of the pack, sick of losing and eager to have some fun at the office again.

That's why Thursday's game mattered to him, with or without his ninth and 10th home runs.

"You've got to think it's going to start something," he said. "The way we've been losing, you couldn't script it any worse for us. We played a solid game tonight and won, and hopefully we can just continue to be solid and get the big hits when we need it and make the good pitches when we need it and we'll be fine."

2001MUgrad
05-14-2005, 03:20 AM
He plays on a sucky team with no pitching. I bet its not much fun. Its not much fun being a fan is it??

dman
05-14-2005, 06:55 AM
Can't blame Dunn at all. Watching the Reds is like being on the verge of bankruptcy and playing the super lotto hoping you hit it big, knowing all odds are against you.

Spring~Fields
05-14-2005, 12:00 PM
Of course I don't know anything for sure but, I get this sinking feeling that Dunn, Kearns and Pena don't like playing or not playing on a chronic losing team and organization and will be looking for the doorway out as soon as they can for greener pastures.

Marc D
05-14-2005, 12:53 PM
Other than opposing hitters, who is having fun this year?

penantboundreds
05-14-2005, 12:55 PM
Springfield, if this team signs all (or 2 of them) to LTC's, shouldn't that be enough to try to show these studs that we are going the right direction. I don't think Dunn thinks that the organization is going the wrong way, I think he feels they are building for the future, and since they just added payroll, I have to agree with him. The Reds have made some good moves over the past year, now we have to wait and see if they pan out, but with Harang, Claussen, Milton, Ortiz, and Wilson, they Reds put a rotation together that most people thought could maintain some kind of consistency. I know the team isn't working out the way most people want, but sometimes you just get cheated when you sign people, and they don't perform the way their track record indicates. Just ask Seattle about that. I think this organization is on it's way up personally, hopefully they all feel the same way.

tts1stros
05-14-2005, 02:42 PM
But there was a plan involved... ...he went up there hacking.

Yep, that sounds like Adam Dunn. :D

KearnsyEars
05-14-2005, 03:05 PM
I hope to see Dunn and Kearns signed to LTC's sometime in the very near future (This offseason) PLEASE!!!! or at least one of them.

4256 Hits
05-14-2005, 03:29 PM
"If Dunn can expand on Thursday's showing, the Reds could clear a significant hurdle in their race back toward .500"

How is this going to improve the pitching? If they want to get back toward .500 they need 8-10 new pitchers.

Caveat Emperor
05-14-2005, 03:33 PM
I hope to see Dunn and Kearns signed to LTC's sometime in the very near future (This offseason) PLEASE!!!! or at least one of them.

Dunn & Kearns are really good friends...I wouldn't be surprised if some of what has been contributing to Dunn's overall sour disposition is the fact that the Reds have been screwing around with Kearns lately.

MartyFan
05-14-2005, 04:02 PM
Thursday night didn't precipitate an immediate change in Dunn's demeanor - possibly because he detests talking about home runs almost as much as he does losing. Almost as much.

Dunn had to talk about home runs Thursday night because he hit a pair of them, long ones, to give the Reds a rare lead they didn't squander. And he got to talk about winning after the bullpen held on for a 7-5 victory against the struggling Phillies.

Maybe Dunn shouldlearn to mix in a few singles and doubles if he doesn't like talking about the Long Ball???

Also, we have pitchers who can pitch at the ML level...we don't have a pitching coach who can work with them to bring their best out of them.

westofyou
05-14-2005, 04:14 PM
Maybe Dunn shouldlearn to mix in a few singles and doubles if he doesn't like talking about the Long Ball???

He has as many 2bs as HR's. I think he'd rather the press talk about a Reds win as opposed to 2 HR's

You sure about those pitchers?

pedro
05-14-2005, 04:35 PM
Also, we have pitchers who can pitch at the ML level...we don't have a pitching coach who can work with them to bring their best out of them.

I'm all for firing Gullet, don't see how it could hurt at this point, but I think it's ludicrous to blame the bad pitching on him. I think he does more damage as a player evaluator than he does as an actual pitching coach.

BadFundamentals
05-14-2005, 06:12 PM
Hasn't been all that "fun" watching him either.

If you remove his stats from his three 2 homerun games - games I'll say he almost single-handedly won for the Reds. You're pretty much back to Brandon Larson, Ruben Mateo, Darren Bragg or Reggie Taylor in LF (with a few more walks). Babe Ruth for 3 games, Reggie Taylor for 32.



AB H 2B 3B HR BB BA OBP SLG
96 22 10 1 4 26 0.229 0.393 0.479

pedro
05-14-2005, 06:31 PM
Hasn't been all that "fun" watching him either.

If you remove his stats from his three 2 homerun games - games I'll say he almost single-handedly won for the Reds. You're pretty much back to Brandon Larson, Ruben Mateo, Darren Bragg or Reggie Taylor in LF (with a few more walks). Babe Ruth for 3 games, Reggie Taylor for 32.



AB H 2B 3B HR BB BA OBP SLG
96 22 10 1 4 26 0.229 0.393 0.479



See, here is where your obcession with trying to make Dunn look bad really falls apart.

Even if we did remove his three 2 HR games from his stat line, he'd still have an OPS of .872.

Reggie Taylor has a lifetime OPS of .660

You really have a problem. I would consider therapy if I was you.

RosieRed
05-14-2005, 06:31 PM
Hasn't been all that "fun" watching him either.

If you remove his stats from his three 2 homerun games - games I'll say he almost single-handedly won for the Reds. You're pretty much back to Brandon Larson, Ruben Mateo, Darren Bragg or Reggie Taylor in LF (with a few more walks). Babe Ruth for 3 games, Reggie Taylor for 32.



AB H 2B 3B HR BB BA OBP SLG
96 22 10 1 4 26 0.229 0.393 0.479



I strongly dislike the "if you remove xxx stats" argument. What's the point? The stats are what they are. It's like saying "If you take away all of Milton's bad stats, the resulting numbers show he's a good pitcher." That doesn't hold any water, and neither does "taking away" Dunn's multi-homer games.

It's just like those "if we hadn't lost, we would have won" type of statements that come out of this FO.

ochre
05-14-2005, 06:36 PM
With 48 less homeruns allowed last year Eric Milton would be Randy Johnson.

KYRedsFan
05-14-2005, 06:45 PM
The hour glass is running out on us having Dunn in a Reds uniform. It's sad, and probably one of the more depressing aspects of the season.

OnBaseMachine
05-14-2005, 06:55 PM
Hasn't been all that "fun" watching him either.

If you remove his stats from his three 2 homerun games - games I'll say he almost single-handedly won for the Reds. You're pretty much back to Brandon Larson, Ruben Mateo, Darren Bragg or Reggie Taylor in LF (with a few more walks). Babe Ruth for 3 games, Reggie Taylor for 32.



AB H 2B 3B HR BB BA OBP SLG
96 22 10 1 4 26 0.229 0.393 0.479



If you remove 3 of Dunn's 0-4 games and add 2 doubles, 2 homeruns, and 2 walks he would be hitting over .320/.450/.750-2.000

two can play this game.

westofyou
05-14-2005, 07:00 PM
If Joe Randa had not played in the first 4 games his line would be .273/375/.373 with 41 TB in 110 ab's

If Sean Casey had not played against the Padres his line would be this .283/.326/.354 with 45 TB in 127 ab's,

One more useless stat.

If my body didn't have a head it could be a trash can.

Puffy
05-14-2005, 07:21 PM
If you remove all BadFundamentals posts in which he bad mouths Adam Dunn he would have negative 837 posts (or for you stat geeks out there -837)

:evil:

BadFundamentals
05-14-2005, 07:44 PM
I strongly dislike the "if you remove xxx stats" argument. What's the point? The stats are what they are. It's like saying "If you take away all of Milton's bad stats, the resulting numbers show he's a good pitcher." That doesn't hold any water, and neither does "taking away" Dunn's multi-homer games.

It's just like those "if we hadn't lost, we would have won" type of statements that come out of this FO.
Fair enough and generally speaking I'd agree it's not a great approach. HOWEVER, in this case when just making a point about the "feast/famine" nature of a player I'd say it's at least noteworthy.

Are you happy with that production from a left fielder for 90% of the games?

TeamBoone
05-14-2005, 07:46 PM
And if you remove Adam Dunn from the Reds.... well, 'nuff said.

I agree with Rosie. Why go through the exercise; it means absolutely nothing.

westofyou
05-14-2005, 07:54 PM
Randa in 85% of the games .273/375/.373 with 41 TB in 110 ab's 1 TB ever 2.7 ab's

Casey in 91% of the games .283/.326/.354 with 45 TB in 127 ab's 1 TB ever 2.8 ab's

Dunn in 90% of the games .229/.393/.479 with 46 TB in 96 ab's 1 TB ever 2 ab's

oneupper
05-14-2005, 07:58 PM
Although we don't have the WPA stats, I'm willing to bet that Dunn has a very positive contribution in part due to those "one handed wins"' plus the walks, etc....

AND...ZERO GIDP!

With a team 9 games under .500, I'm pretty sure that not many REDS can make that same statement.

Now, if he could only get a SAC FLY

BadFundamentals
05-14-2005, 08:05 PM
Randa in 85% of the games .273/375/.373 with 41 TB in 110 ab's 1 TB ever 2.7 ab's

Casey in 91% of the games .283/.326/.354 with 45 TB in 127 ab's 1 TB ever 2.8 ab's

Dunn in 90% of the games .229/.393/.479 with 46 TB in 96 ab's 1 TB ever 2 ab's
a few points:
#1 Randa and Dunn have spent most of year in 4,5,6 holes so care far less about an inflated OBP due to BBs than batting average. I don't think reds will win pennant trying to "set the table" for Aurilia, LaRue and pitcher's spot.

#2 It would be nice to have better from Randa and Casey but .273 and .283 batting averages from rbi spots aren't terrible. And both are their usual solid gloves defensively (except for that one game from casey).

#3 Noone is talking about Randa and Casey as future HOFers or suggesting they be locked up for millions with long term contracts.

ws1990reds
05-15-2005, 12:06 AM
Of course I don't know anything for sure but, I get this sinking feeling that Dunn, Kearns and Pena don't like playing or not playing on a chronic losing team and organization and will be looking for the doorway out as soon as they can for greener pastures.

Particularly for Dunn, could this be why he hasn't signed a long-term contract? Nevermind DanO's excuse that he doesn't discuss contracts mid-season, I think that Dunn would have already been signed long-term if he really wanted to play for the Reds. Things could get even uglier for the Reds organization if the ship's hull isn't patched.

Raisor
05-15-2005, 12:17 AM
a few points:
#1 Randa and Dunn have spent most of year in 4,5,6 holes so care far less about an inflated OBP due to BBs than batting average.
.


*sigh*

and you call me on being too in love with Runs Created. You KNOW that batting average is a lesser stat then OBP and SLG, yet you continue to harp on it. I KNOW you know that OBP and SLG have a much higher corelation to runs then AVG, yet you seem intent on ignoring it.

You're a smarter guy then this. If one didn't know better, one would think that you're doing this on purpose.

Wait, you probably are.

pedro
05-15-2005, 12:19 AM
I'd just like to add that Dunn looked pretty good at first base today. I just wish he'd stop hitting all his homeruns in one game.

KronoRed
05-15-2005, 12:21 AM
I'd just like to add that Dunn looked pretty good at first base today. I just wish he'd stop hitting all his homeruns in one game.

He's not a team player, he should retire




;)

WVPacman
05-15-2005, 12:24 AM
Particularly for Dunn, could this be why he hasn't signed a long-term contract? Nevermind DanO's excuse that he doesn't discuss contracts mid-season, I think that Dunn would have already been signed long-term if he really wanted to play for the Reds. Things could get even uglier for the Reds organization if the ship's hull isn't patched.

Man I hope this an't the reason he is'nt happy,and if it is I sure hope is hot hitting has changed his mind.I would HATE to see Dunn in any other uni but the Reds.I think he can help this team in so many diferent ways if he can just make it past this horid strech for this team in the past few years.

Hang in there Dunn this team and the fans need you!!!

Maldez
05-15-2005, 02:13 AM
I hope to see Dunn and Kearns signed to LTC's sometime in the very near future (This offseason) PLEASE!!!! or at least one of them.

I keep reading where Kearns is being sought after by a lot of other clubs, and DOB is willing to trade Adam for a front-line pitcher. Supposedly the Reds are just waiting for Kearnsie's stats to fatten up enough to where he'd command a top-flight arm in a trade.

SteelSD
05-15-2005, 03:55 AM
I'd just like to add that Dunn looked pretty good at first base today. I just wish he'd stop hitting all his homeruns in one game.

Yeah, being too good in a game is teh suck.

Babe Ruth holds the MLB record with 72 multi-Home Run games. But he played 2503 games on the offensive side.

Hmn...well, I'm sure that he hit at least three in some of those games but lets assume it's just two HR each game. That's 144 HR accounted for. Hmn...714- 144...subtract...carry the digit...

Wow. Remove less than half a season's worth of performance from Babe Ruth and he hit only 570 Home Runs. Gawd. That sucks for as good as Ruth was reported to have been. The guy hit between 20-25% of all his Home Runs in only 2.8% of his games. What a showboating grandstander that guy was. And I'll bet that a bunch of those 2nd and 3rd HR came in games where they didn't need them. Selfish jerk! Not at all a team player.

Babe Ruth is teh suck!

I'm not sure where the idea came from that hitters pack away their hits into little compartments in their back pockets in order to ration them over the entirety of the season. Oh...I hit that ball too far. Can I get a do-over? I'd like to sock that one away for tomorrow's game please. Can I use that "get out of two-strike against tough lefty" HR card when we're tied in the fourth inning sometime next week instead? Thanks so much.

Let's see...if I remove 30% of the good and 70% of the other happened in 90% of the games then I can show that the 30% of the good doesn't happen as often as the 70% of the bad, but if a player can just file away some of that 30% into his "I'll do this tomorrow instead of today" hitting cache, then that hitter will be soooooooooo much better! Wow. We've created a new form of mathematical analysis that can be understood by squirrels, many rodents, and some of the more enlightened mollusks. Goody.

Ok, Ichiro, c'mere. Listen, dude...we need you to stop at two hits for this game. If you get too many today and only one tomorrow, then folks are going to say that you're inconsistent and we certainly don't want that. We need you to more consistently balance your Hits to when they really count. Maybe on one of those little infield choppers why don't you run a little slower or act like you tweaked something. Then because you only had two hits instead of three tonight, baseball will OWE you a hit and you can use that whenever.

See, in Cinci, they've asked the umpires to call Adam Dunn out after he passes 2nd base on his second home run each game because if he gets that second tater, someone's gonna call him inconsistent because he's getting too much production in a some games. Yeah, being too good in some games is bad. We'd instead like you to use your Jedi mind tricks to force pitchers to throw the ball down the heart of the plate in a game sometime in July when you have only one hit. But don't use your "Get on First Base Free" card until we really need it. If you use it while we're way up or way down in a game, folks will accuse you of only getting hits in meaningless situations.

Yes, Ichiro, I know that sometimes a situation might look meaningless but will end up being very important. But we're not concerned about that. If you do anything to add to the score when up or well down, then you're just not trying hard enough. See, using logic de' jour, trying hard until a game is over is just frowned upon if you're not in a Save situation. And really, when you're up by that many Runs, it's obvious that the opposing pitchers are just trying to let you get hits anyway, right? So hopefully you understand that there is no honor in continuing to give maximum effort. In fact, if you give too much effort, you'll be accused of only doing things in "low pressure" situations. What's that? You mean there's pressure at all times with a guy on the mound throwing 90 miles per hour? No, no. Remember, he's not really trying to get you out so attempting to try to not get out is dishonorable. On the other hand, the pitcher- by attempting to allow you to easily reach base- is being honorable.

What's that, Ichiro? No. It doesn't matter that your team actually may really really need that third hit later TODAY or that Adam Dunn's 2nd homer might be the clincher in a Reds game TODAY in retrospect. If you have two hits by the fourth Inning, just stop. If you do too much today and not enough tomorrow you'll be accused of "grandstanding". Being too good in a game is unmanly. Kind of like Walks are dishonorable. But then, you already know that second one, right?

What's that, Ichiro? You wonder how many times George Brett had too many hits today and not enough tomorrow. Gee...I don't know.

But I'll bet that it was a bunch.

M2
05-15-2005, 04:06 AM
Steel, I don't see what's so hard about getting a hit every game. In fact the game's filthy with lengthy batting streaks.

SteelSD
05-15-2005, 04:16 AM
Steel, I don't see what's so hard about getting a hit every game. In fact the game's filthy with lengthy batting streaks.

I think that's quite obvious, M2.

Players are using too many hits in the wrong situations and aren't saving them up for the right situations. If Ichiro would just read my post, he'd have multiple 162-game hitting streaks.

Caveat Emperor
05-15-2005, 04:40 AM
Yeah, being too good in a game is teh suck.

If I had anything better than Jason Romano-esq Reputation Power, I'd ding you big time for using the phrase "teh suck" on RedsZone. :laugh:

Ravenlord
05-15-2005, 04:56 AM
that Jackie Robinson guy was a grandstanding joker too....stealing home all those times. how dare he?

Ron Madden
05-15-2005, 04:58 AM
Players getting too many hits when we don't need 'em.
What ever happened to hittin' in the clutch? :confused:

KronoRed
05-15-2005, 06:21 AM
that Jackie Robinson guy was a grandstanding joker too....stealing home all those times. how dare he?

You know how many sac flys he stole from others? disgraceful.

Maldez
05-15-2005, 10:53 AM
The hour glass is running out on us having Dunn in a Reds uniform. It's sad, and probably one of the more depressing aspects of the season.

Not sure why you feel this way. Everything I read indicates the Reds want to make Dunn the cornerstone of their offense for at least the next 10 years. Kearns is another story.

As for Dunn "not having fun", I don't want ballplayers who enjoy losing.

BadFundamentals
05-15-2005, 11:13 AM
Your "Baseball" Raisor is a "game-less" season where the best players are those who accumulate the most "bases" and the most "Runs Created" across the 162 game seasons. Games are not discrete events with you - heck games don't exist. All players are the same. Just count the bases and runs and rank all the players 1 to a thousand.

In my "Baseball" the emphasis is on winning "games" night in night out. Player appraisals are not independent of a player's "role" on "team" or "game situations". I use slightly different measures for "table setters", "rbi guys", the occasional "all around" player etc...I believe in "clutch" and "soft stats/numbers". You believe in "Runs Created".

paintmered
05-15-2005, 11:28 AM
Your "Baseball" Raisor is a "game-less" season where the best players are those who accumulate the most "bases" and the most "Runs Created" across the 162 game seasons. Games are not discrete events with you - heck games don't exist. All players are the same. Just count the bases and runs and rank all the players 1 to a thousand.

In my "Baseball" the emphasis is on winning "games" night in night out. Player appraisals are not independent of a player's "role" on "team" or "game situations". I use slightly different measures for "table setters", "rbi guys", the occasional "all around" player etc...I believe in "clutch" and "soft stats/numbers". You believe in "Runs Created".

That's interesting you say that because most micro statistics aren't used to look at macro situations. I wouldn't use quantum mechanics to try and figure out why that rock fell off the cliff.

I just can't see how your type of analysis (and I'm not just assuming you are wrong) could produce an accurate model over the course of any useful amount of time.

BadFundamentals
05-15-2005, 11:36 AM
That's interesting you say that because most micro statistics aren't used to look at macro situations. I wouldn't use quantum mechanics to try and figure out why that rock fell off the cliff.

I just can't see how your type of analysis (and I'm not just assuming you are wrong) could produce an accurate model over the course of any useful amount of time.
wouldn't suggest using "exclusively" micro measures but would definitely use them along with the standard macro ones. and give the micro ones special notice/emphasis for certain player types, attributes, recurrent themes etc.....

wheels
05-15-2005, 01:01 PM
Wow.

Just, wow.

pedro
05-15-2005, 01:30 PM
Your "Baseball" Raisor is a "game-less" season where the best players are those who accumulate the most "bases" and the most "Runs Created" across the 162 game seasons. Games are not discrete events with you - heck games don't exist. All players are the same. Just count the bases and runs and rank all the players 1 to a thousand.

In my "Baseball" the emphasis is on winning "games" night in night out. Player appraisals are not independent of a player's "role" on "team" or "game situations". I use slightly different measures for "table setters", "rbi guys", the occasional "all around" player etc...I believe in "clutch" and "soft stats/numbers". You believe in "Runs Created".

You believe whatever you have to in order to re-enforce your misconceptions.

I think you should change your username to "BadMathmetics"

Let's see. Do I go with SABR and the preponderance of data supported by the greatest minds analyzing baseball today (i.e. Bill James, Baseball Prospectus etc), or do I go with BadFundementals and his KRISP, a stat he invented for the sole purpose of denegrating a single player for whom he had a distaste.

I just don't know. :rolleyes:

SteelSD
05-15-2005, 01:37 PM
You believe whatever you have to in order to re-enforce your misconceptions.

I think you should change your username to "BadMathmetics"

Let's see. Do I go with SABR and the preponderance of data supported by the greatest minds analyzing baseball today (i.e. Bill James, Baseball Prospectus etc), or do I go with BadFundementals and his KRISP, a stat he invented for the sole purpose of denegrating a single player for whom he had a distaste.

I just don't know. :rolleyes:

Scott Rolen is the Krispiest player in the game. His .358 BA with RISP in 2004 is absolute proof that this complete clutch player should be given all RBI opportunities as he will, no doubt, succeed because he is CLUTCH.

Scott Rolen is Krispy! KRISPY I SAY UNTO THEE!!!!!!!!!

Scott Rolen 2005 w/RISP- .175 BA/.298 OBP/.375 SLG

Eh...whoops?

OnBaseMachine
05-15-2005, 01:46 PM
Mmmmmm, Krispy.

http://lance.heathville.com/images/krispy.JPG

westofyou
05-15-2005, 01:49 PM
1. The first, unstated, law of elementary arithmetic is: never divide A by B unless there is a damn good reason for dividing A by B.

2. Any system which is never surprising is never interesting. Any system which is consistently surprising is probably wrong.

M2
05-15-2005, 02:33 PM
I hear Raisor also believes in penicillin and the benefits of pasteurization.

westofyou
05-15-2005, 02:35 PM
I hear Raisor also believes in penicillin and the benefits of pasteurization.

And washing his hands after he handles raw chicken.

SteelSD
05-15-2005, 02:39 PM
And washing his hands after he handles raw chicken.

You're supposed to do that?

M2
05-15-2005, 02:55 PM
You're supposed to do that?

Only after you rub your eyes first.

RFS62
05-15-2005, 04:08 PM
This thread is funny.

BadFundamentals
05-15-2005, 04:22 PM
Chris Welsh just did same thing with Ramirez. Tossed out one bad start and gave numbers for his other 4.

Toss out bad/good approach is valid when making point about what you are most likely to get from a guy most of the time. And when you care about winning individual games it's worth consideration.

RFS62
05-15-2005, 04:25 PM
Welsh did it in the context of one bad outing.

You do it as character assasination in your life's work to denegrate Dunn.

You're nothing if not consistent.

BadFundamentals
05-15-2005, 04:30 PM
Welsh did it in the context of one bad outing.

You do it as character assasination in your life's work to denegrate Dunn.

You're nothing if not consistent.
I did it in context of removing 3 games (roughly 10% of games), Welsh did it and removed 20 %. Simialar approach. I did it in context of a baseball issue (not character assasination) I care about. YOU just can't keep from making it PERSONAL, not me. It's a Cincinnati Reds baseball issue to me.

RFS62
05-15-2005, 04:36 PM
I did it in context of removing 3 games (roughly 10% of games), Welsh did it and removed 20 %. Simialar approach. I did it in context of a baseball issue (not character assasination) I care about. YOU just can't keep from making it PERSONAL, not me. It's a Cincinnati Reds baseball issue to me.


Yeah, I get a lot of complaints about my personal attacks.

DUNNHATER, wasn't that your first nickname here?

BadFundamentals
05-15-2005, 04:44 PM
Yeah, I get a lot of complaints about my personal attacks.

DUNNHATER, wasn't that your first nickname here?
Yea, I invented the approach of using a specific to speak to a broader subject/issue. Noone in the history of mankind has ever felt strongly about some related issues but used specific "name".

Would you have preferred I picked BADSITUATIONALHITTINGTOOMANYSTRIKEOUTSQUESTIONABLE FIELDINGLOWBATTINGAVERAGESHATER? You just don't agree with me (and probably don't like me) so you use that to make it personal against me.

RFS62
05-15-2005, 04:46 PM
Dude, please. Johnny Cochran's dead. Just say it.

RFS62
05-15-2005, 04:49 PM
BTW, I don't know you, so my opinions of you are based solely on the things you say here.

Actually, I think you're good for the board. You have spurred a number of very interesting discussions, many of which are very funny.

It's almost as if your goal in life is to be RedsZone's pinata.

BadFundamentals
05-15-2005, 04:52 PM
"Dude" (Stuart), you're good enough, smart enough and people like you. I like you.

RFS62
05-15-2005, 04:53 PM
"Dude" (Stuart), you're good enough, smart enough and people like you. I like you.


It's a burden.

:cool:

BadFundamentals
05-15-2005, 04:55 PM
"pinata"...not really my goal - though I see your point.

Getting to see a team (Reds) which is better fundamentally/situationally, contends and doesn't set new all time baseball history strikeout records every year is probably closer to my hope.

RosieRed
05-15-2005, 05:42 PM
Chris Welsh just did same thing with Ramirez. Tossed out one bad start and gave numbers for his other 4.

Toss out bad/good approach is valid when making point about what you are most likely to get from a guy most of the time. And when you care about winning individual games it's worth consideration.

Well, if Chris Welsh does it ....

Raisor
05-15-2005, 07:58 PM
Your "Baseball" Raisor is a "game-less" season where the best players are those who accumulate the most "bases" and the most "Runs Created" across the 162 game seasons. Games are not discrete events with you - heck games don't exist. All players are the same. Just count the bases and runs and rank all the players 1 to a thousand.

In my "Baseball" the emphasis is on winning "games" night in night out. Player appraisals are not independent of a player's "role" on "team" or "game situations". I use slightly different measures for "table setters", "rbi guys", the occasional "all around" player etc...I believe in "clutch" and "soft stats/numbers". You believe in "Runs Created".

Actually, I believe in winning game too. I just know that runs scored and runs against are seperate things. Those two thing combined are what causes wins and losses.

By the way, I'm still waiting (a good month since I asked you in the first place) to know why the RC stat doesn't work.

MWM
05-15-2005, 08:49 PM
This thread is funny.

That's exactly what I was just thinking. Hilarious stuff guys.

Larkin Fan
05-15-2005, 09:46 PM
This thread is funny.

No kidding. :laugh:

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 10:18 AM
Actually, I believe in winning game too. I just know that runs scored and runs against are seperate things. Those two thing combined are what causes wins and losses.

By the way, I'm still waiting (a good month since I asked you in the first place) to know why the RC stat doesn't work.
Yes, but you seem to not "know" or not believe that there is anything to "when" you score runs - you just count 'em up for a week, month, season with no regard as to their timeliness.

I'm not saying your RC stat "doesn't work". You clearly have spent alot of time testing its accuracy and if you tell me it works to so and so percent under so and so conditions I'll take your word for it. HOWEVER, would you use a tape measure to tell me how much something weighs? A thermometer to tell me how slow Paul Wilson's fastball is?

With a guy in RISP I'll settle for a single/double to score the run and keep the rally going. You can keep your walks which defer opportunity to the .150 hitting LaRue/Aurilia or pitcher's spot. And keep your homerun swing which is less likely to bring run in. With RISP, RISP Batting Average is all I need to judge how a hitter does with rbi situation hitting.

NJReds
05-16-2005, 10:33 AM
Getting to see a team (Reds) which is better fundamentally/situationally, contends and doesn't set new all time baseball history strikeout records every year is probably closer to my hope.

But you continue to heap the blame for all of the above on one player, who also happens to be the team's most productive player. Baseball is a team game.

If you took out all of Dunn's K's and replaced him with a guy that didn't K at all, the Reds would still lead the league in strikeouts.

If you removed him from the field, the Reds would still be among the worst defensive teams.

You're making Dunn the poster child for your arguements when there are much better examples on the roster.

wheels
05-16-2005, 10:36 AM
Yes, but you seem to not "know" or not believe that there is anything to "when" you score runs - you just count 'em up for a week, month, season with no regard as to their timeliness.

I'm not saying your RC stat "doesn't work". You clearly have spent alot of time testing its accuracy and if you tell me it works to so and so percent under so and so conditions I'll take your word for it. HOWEVER, would you use a tape measure to tell me how much something weighs? A thermometer to tell me how slow Paul Wilson's fastball is?

With a guy in RISP I'll settle for a single/double to score the run and keep the rally going. You can keep your walks which defer opportunity to the .150 hitting LaRue/Aurilia or pitcher's spot. And keep your homerun swing which is less likely to bring run in. With RISP, RISP Batting Average is all I need to judge how a hitter does with rbi situation hitting.


You are aware that Raisor didn't create the RC, right?

So why would he need to test it?

Do you really think that a hitter uses a different swing in order to produce a double as opposed to a homer?

Red Leader
05-16-2005, 10:45 AM
But you continue to heap the blame for all of the above on one player, who also happens to be the team's most productive player. Baseball is a team game.

If you took out all of Dunn's K's and replaced him with a guy that didn't K at all, the Reds would still lead the league in strikeouts.

If you removed him from the field, the Reds would still be among the worst defensive teams.

You're making Dunn the poster child for your arguements when there are much better examples on the roster.

That's what I don't understand. BadFundamentals, you keep saying that Dunn doesn't produce runs and that leaves the RBI opps to LaRue/Aurillia/pitcher's spot, etc, but is it Adam's fault that his manager hits him 6th most games? Here's an idea. Get the kid some protection in the lineup. If Griffey (hitting good now) was behind Dunn, I guarantee that Dunn would walk less and get more pitches to hit, so my guess is his numbers with RISP would go up. Hitting out the 6th spot is not doing him any favors (as has been discussed on this board ad nauseum). Also, why not harp on LaRue/Aurilia. They are the ones that aren't coming though in RBI situations, much more than Dunn, and they are getting pitches to hit (they don't walk a whole lot). Blame Miley, Randa, LaRue, and Aurilia. They are the ones causing us to lose and not score runs in key situations. Adam's doing what he can, and he's doing it very well for the crappy spot he's in.

Raisor
05-16-2005, 10:47 AM
Let's take a look at how accurate BAw/RISP is vs RC/wRISP as of today.

Of the top ten teams in Runs Scored in the majors, five are also in the top 10 with BAw/RISP.
Six are in the top ten w RCw/RISP and six are in the top ten with RC/27 w/RISP.

First of all, I'd say that it looks like what you do with RISP isn't the most important thing when it comes to scoring runs. Second, RC and RC/27 looks to be more accurate.

Raisor
05-16-2005, 10:49 AM
You are aware that Raisor didn't create the RC, right?

So why would he need to test it?



I do test it. If I'm going to use it, I want to make sure it's accurate.

It is.

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 11:15 AM
Snoop, you earn your spot in batting order. I believe Dunn has earned an opportunity to get a shot in #2 hole but for a reason unknown to me Miley hasn't given him that. However, he has certainly NOT earned an opportunity to hit #3 or # 4. You don't bat #3 or #4 when capable of 200 strikeout seasons, have a lifetime ~.250 batting average and have struggled for entire career with HITTING with RISP.

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 11:22 AM
NJ, of course I'm harder on Dunn. LaRue is bubble mlb starting catcher. Aurilia bandaid SS. etc. etc...Noone is talking about locking those guys up for long term contracts at 50 million+. People are hard on Griffey, Casey at times (see $$$ etc..)

With Dunn even another element and I didn't bring this up this time someone else posted it on another thread. What about his influence on Kearns and Larson? What about influence on Pena. Dunn has loads of leadership qualities. If he does all the right things he could be great for a team. If he doesn't do the right things though all those leadership attributes can work against lineup/team. He can be the 5000 pound weight that drags the whole thing down...............

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 11:25 AM
You are aware that Raisor didn't create the RC, right?

So why would he need to test it?

Do you really think that a hitter uses a different swing in order to produce a double as opposed to a homer?
Griffey said on his most recent homer he was "just trying not to strikeout".

I know for a fact that some hitters try to give the exact same swing every time much like a golf swing. But I also know other hitters are always processing situation and adjusting approach and swing.

Yes aware of some of the history of the RC formula. I just don't buy into Raisor's methodology of applying it to a micro situation when by definition a BB is clearly not as good as a hit.

wheels
05-16-2005, 11:28 AM
NJ, of course I'm harder on Dunn. LaRue is bubble mlb starting catcher. Aurilia bandaid SS. etc. etc...Noone is talking about locking those guys up for long term contracts at 50 million+. People are hard on Griffey, Casey at times (see $$$ etc..)

With Dunn even another element and I didn't bring this up this time someone else posted it on another thread. What about his influence on Kearns and Larson? What about influence on Pena. Dunn has loads of leadership qualities. If he does all the right things he could be great for a team. If he doesn't do the right things though all those leadership attributes can work against lineup/team. He can be the 5000 pound weight that drags the whole thing down...............

Okay, now I've heard it all.

Is it your actual contention that Dunn's the main reason for the demise of Brandon Larson, and the early season slump, and previous injuries to Austin Kearns?

Is he the main reason for this team's imminent demise?

Adam Dunn: Persona Non Grata. :rolleyes:

NJReds
05-16-2005, 11:29 AM
NJ, of course I'm harder on Dunn. LaRue is bubble mlb starting catcher. Aurilia bandaid SS. etc. etc...Noone is talking about locking those guys up for long term contracts at 50 million+. People are hard on Griffey, Casey at times (see $$$ etc..)

With Dunn even another element and I didn't bring this up this time someone else posted it on another thread. What about his influence on Kearns and Larson? What about influence on Pena. Dunn has loads of leadership qualities. If he does all the right things he could be great for a team. If he doesn't do the right things though all those leadership attributes can work against lineup/team. He can be the 5000 pound weight that drags the whole thing down...............

You've just made my point while trying to dispute it.

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 11:39 AM
Like I said check the Dunn trade thread for origin of that argument (Larson, Kearns influence) I'm just saying I've made some similar observations and I'm not totally disagreeing with the poster's statement.

Dunn has the raw talent, strength, personality, charisma...etc... etc......... to get away with his approach to a degree. Larson certainly didn't. What works for one guy can ruin another.

westofyou
05-16-2005, 11:42 AM
This thread makes my IQ drop each time I open it.

wheels
05-16-2005, 11:43 AM
This thread makes my IQ drop each time I open it.

You too?

I was thinking there was something wrong with me.

wheels
05-16-2005, 11:44 AM
Like I said check the Dunn trade thread for origin of that argument (Larson, Kearns influence) I'm just saying I've made some similar observations and I'm not totally disagreeing with the poster's statement.

Dunn has the raw talent, strength, personality, charisma...etc... etc......... to get away with his approach to a degree. Larson certainly didn't. What works for one guy can ruin another.

Thanks for clearing that up. :bang:

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 11:48 AM
To clarify for any of you that have recently had IQ droppage which might have made you not connect all dots. And to just clarify my point for Redszone posterity and George Grande.

"Certain" players have an OBP which is made up of 50% walks. In a situation where a BB is clearly FAR INFERIOR to a hit, I don't like using OBP or a 500 character formula to measure something where batting average is simpler and does a much better job of measuring value.

Ravenlord
05-16-2005, 11:51 AM
why not just use SLG or OPS or SecA? or better yet, RC and RC/27?

Red Leader
05-16-2005, 11:53 AM
why not just use SLG or OPS or SecA?

Because those stats don't support his cause and they are "harder"

Ravenlord
05-16-2005, 11:57 AM
Because those stats don't support his cause and they are "harder"i know, i was just feeling left out.;)

Raisor
05-16-2005, 12:05 PM
Anyone notice that BF is ignoring how RC looks to be more accurate then BA w/RISP when looking at the top ten teams in RS?

That's his MO. Ignore what doesn't fit his agenda.

I'm more then willing to let anyone PROVE to me that a player's avg is the most important thing with RISP (I'm also willing to let anyone prove to me that avg w/RISP is the most important stat, period).

Someone step up.

Red Leader
05-16-2005, 12:09 PM
Someone step up.

Well, you see, if a guy has a high BA in his first plate appearance and actually drives in the first run of the game, he is very, very important.

If he does it late in the game with the score tied or trailing by one run, he is better.

If he does it in extra innings, he is even better than that.

If he walks a lot or strikes out in those situations, he's overrated.

Proof enough?

Puffy
05-16-2005, 12:22 PM
Here is BF's argument (or, more accurately, what I believe to be his argument) - - Adam Dunn's batting average with RISP is and always has been in the low to mid .200's. Most people on here argue that one can't look at that because his OPS in those situations is the upper .800s, alot of that OBP driven, but also high because his hits are doubles and bombs. BF is contending that Dunn needs to get that BA up because walks don't drive in the runs, base hits and productive outs do, and Dunn (by looking at his BA with runners in scoring position) is inadequete.

I think I have that correct, and in easy to understand language, but anyone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Now, the obvious argument, well obvious to all of us except BF, is that the reason Dunn's BA is so low is because pitchers won't give him anything decent to hit in those situations because why would they, Larue and Aurilla and Randa are next and they'd much rather take their chances with them, rather than with Dunn. BF doesn't agree with this because he thinks Dunn should expand his zone because a hit is needed and a walk doesn't further the cause.

So, I have two questions - (1) if one expands the zone and tries to do too much with "bad" pitches (outside of the seeing eye single or bloop hit) won't this expansion lead to more outs and a LOWER batting average in these situations? and (2) if outs are precious, and they are precious, doesn't it logically follow that not making outs, i.e., walking, putting more people on base, putting more pressure on the pitcher, the fielder in that a mistake now won't cost them one run but potentially two or three runs, isn't that a positive outcome that helps teams win games?

Red Leader
05-16-2005, 12:26 PM
Hey Puffy. No one's talking about signing you to a multi-million dollar long term contract, so you just butt out, ok? :mooner:

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 12:28 PM
Anyone notice that BF is ignoring how RC looks to be more accurate then BA w/RISP when looking at the top ten teams in RS?

That's his MO. Ignore what doesn't fit his agenda.

I'm more then willing to let anyone PROVE to me that a player's avg is the most important thing with RISP (I'm also willing to let anyone prove to me that avg w/RISP is the most important stat, period).

Someone step up.
You and I have been over this before regarding how your RC formula does not address "timeliness".

old saying about winning baseball..."pitching and TIMELY hitting"......step further, TIMELY run scoring.

You are all about scoring as many runs as possible in SEASON - more is better period with you. "Games" don't exist to you. I'd rather get timely hits and score timely runs and spend left over $$$$ on PITCHING. I don't want to pay multi-millions to guys who might create X number of runs but struggle year in and year out with timeliness of their productivity. Give me fewer but more timely runs and better pitching.

westofyou
05-16-2005, 12:28 PM
Here are some other guys who suck.


SEASON
AVERAGE <= .280
OBA >= .390
WALKS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
EXTRA BASE HITS >= 70
AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME YEAR RC/G AVG OBA BB EBH AGE
1 Mark McGwire 1999 10.85 .278 .424 133 87 35
2 Mark McGwire 1997 9.33 .274 .393 101 85 33
3 Reggie Jackson 1969 9.28 .275 .410 114 86 23
4 Harmon Killebrew 1969 9.23 .276 .427 145 71 33
5 Ralph Kiner 1950 8.68 .272 .408 122 74 27
6 Carlos Delgado 2001 8.37 .279 .408 111 71 29
7 Jim Thome 2004 8.28 .274 .396 104 71 33
8 Rafael Palmeiro 2002 8.22 .273 .391 104 77 37
9 Mike Schmidt 1977 8.17 .274 .393 104 76 27
10 Frank Thomas 2003 8.07 .267 .390 100 77 35
11 Jim Thome 2000 7.97 .269 .398 118 71 29

Raisor
05-16-2005, 12:30 PM
(2) if outs are precious, and they are precious, doesn't it logically follow that not making outs, i.e., walking, putting more people on base, putting more pressure on the pitcher, the fielder in that a mistake now won't cost them one run but potentially two or three runs, isn't that a positive outcome that helps teams win games?

This is why the Runs Created stat is so good. It takes almost anything that can happen on the field and assigns it a "worth". Good things get a positive, bad things a negative. A walk, no matter when it happens, is GOOD, and thus gets a percentage of a run. An out gets a negative percentage of a run.
When Adam Dunn makes an out, his RC goes down.

(Let me repeat that for BF: When Adam Dunn makes an out, his RC goes down).

Puffy
05-16-2005, 12:31 PM
Hey Puffy. No one's talking about signing you to a multi-million dollar long term contract, so you just butt out, ok? :mooner:

Hey RL, talk to the hand, cause the face ain't listenin'

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/916060/whatever.jpg

Tony Cloninger
05-16-2005, 12:34 PM
Dunn is the target for some Reds fans (I have been guilty of this in years past) beacuse a lot of this team's offensive potential seems to rest on his shoulders. People look for him to be this team's Albert Pujols. EVERYONE in this lineup struggles with RISP.....maybe with the exception of Griffey who, when he is healthy and on his game, seems to come up big more often than not with RISP.

People i think are reading way too much into him being down. It's sucks to lose but that does not mean he is looking for the exit sign ASAP.

NJReds
05-16-2005, 12:34 PM
To clarify for any of you that have recently had IQ droppage which might have made you not connect all dots.


When I connect the dots, I have to include "dots" from the mlb.com board where you've stated more then once that nothing's better then a Reds win and a 3K night for Dunn. And that it's bittersweet when the Reds win and Dunn has a big night. That, along with statements like "he only plays hard on ESPN" and the like...

I try to focus on that, rather then get tangled up in mathematical equations and hypotheticals. It cuts to the core of your agenda...you don't like Dunn. I think we've all got it now. :thumbup:

creek14
05-16-2005, 12:37 PM
I remember in grade school when a person continually ripped at another person it was usually because they were jealous.

Just sayin.

westofyou
05-16-2005, 12:38 PM
t cuts to the core of your agenda...you don't like Dunn. I think we've all got it now.

Hate is a powerful drug.

Meanwhile...
It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 12:40 PM
Puffy we're close. I don't think we're as far apart as you think. Yes anyone on this team who can hit a lick will be pitched carefully in 5 or 6 hole with Aurilia, LaRue and pitcher's spot to follow. You and I would be pitched carefully. We'd be likely to get some extra BBs.

So because of that others want to say that its not Dunn's "fault" and make excuses for Dunn that you can't blame him that he is stuck batting 5 or 6 and not his "fault" that 7, 8 and 9 hitters have stunk it up.

However, again next logical point to make his that players "earn" best spots in batting order by year in year out productivity (see Griffey and Casey multi year .300 hitter etc....). Casey didn't come up from minors and immediately step into 3 hole. If Dunn could improve parts of his game he would earn better batting order spot - you couldn't keep him out of it.

I'd rather have his "soft walk" than an out. But I'm not impressed by his BB-driven OPB in the 5 hole on this team. When he starts to take the one or two pitches he might see in an RISP situation and just do whatever he can with it to get a HIT (even if he can't drive it out of ballpark) then that will be impressive.

Raisor
05-16-2005, 12:40 PM
by the way, yes, I want the Reds to score as many runs as possible. Teams that score alot during the season tend to score a lot of runs per game, which is what an offense is supposed to do.

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 12:43 PM
NJ, low blows from you there......... only because I've seen the same for 5 years and so have drawn my conclusion. If he could prove me wrong CONSISTENTLY and really make the adjustments I'd be a Dunn fan quicker than you would jump on Stratton's jock.

And you'd see me in LF with a #44 jerysey ! !

paintmered
05-16-2005, 12:44 PM
It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.


That also goes for other posters.

NJReds
05-16-2005, 12:49 PM
NJ, low blows from you there......... only because I've seen the same for 5 years and so have drawn my conclusion. If he could prove me wrong CONSISTENTLY and really make the adjustments I'd be a Dunn fan quicker than you would jump on Stratton's jock.

And you'd see me in LF with a #44 jerysey ! !

Sorry if the truth hurts. I'm not asking you to be a fan, to buy a jersey, or to like the guy. But behind the stats, the KRISP, the RISP, the soft walks, the urban legend speed, have been some pretty telling statements that lead me to believe that you don't want him to prove you wrong...

If I'm wrong about that, then I apologize. I'm just drawing the conclusion from nearly two years of going back and forth with you on this issue.

Sean_CaseyRules
05-16-2005, 12:53 PM
i like how everyone here just loves each other......lol

NJReds
05-16-2005, 12:56 PM
i like how everyone here just loves each other......lol

BF and I are buddies. Apart from the occasional time or two that I give him a reality-check, we're actually quite civil. :cool:

Sean_CaseyRules
05-16-2005, 12:59 PM
well if this carries on, for a long time, it will be interesting to see how the Sofball game will go...

Jpup
05-16-2005, 01:26 PM
there are more a lot more pressing issues than Adam Dunn productivity. :thumbup:

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 01:51 PM
by the way, yes, I want the Reds to score as many runs as possible. Teams that score alot during the season tend to score a lot of runs per game, which is what an offense is supposed to do.
compromise, compute your RC when referring to RISP situations for 5/6 hole hitters on the Reds without the 5/6 hole soft BBs this team gets which effectively just become LOB - just leave BBs out of formula.

So basically turn your RC (simple form OBP * TB/PA) into an OPS hybrid where you use BA*SLG. That's a compromise. At least you get your power component (I give there) and I get your soft BBs out of there (you give there).

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 01:56 PM
Sorry if the truth hurts. I'm not asking you to be a fan, to buy a jersey, or to like the guy. But behind the stats, the KRISP, the RISP, the soft walks, the urban legend speed, have been some pretty telling statements that lead me to believe that you don't want him to prove you wrong...

If I'm wrong about that, then I apologize. I'm just drawing the conclusion from nearly two years of going back and forth with you on this issue.
operative phrase is "two years" because it wasn't until mid-2003 that I started to definitively conclude that he had no significant intent (or ability) to fundamentally adjust his game. And at that point all the youth in the world doesn't help once there is no intent. Reds don't have the luxury/budget for that type of one dimensional player.

Puffy
05-16-2005, 01:57 PM
compromise, compute your RC when referring to RISP situations for 5/6 hole hitters on the Reds without the 5/6 hole soft BBs this team gets which effectively just become LOB - just leave BBs out of formula.

So basically turn your RC (simple form OBP * TB/PA) into an OPS hybrid where you use BA*SLG. That's a compromise. At least you get your power component (I give there) and I get your soft BBs out of there (you give there).

Ugh - but they are not soft walks! If Adam Dunn does as you want him to and swings at balls so that he doesn't walk then his BA will go down further (cause, contrary to what you seem to be thinking, pitchers in major league baseball who don't wear a Reds unifrom are pretty doggone good) then you will be complaining that his batting average is even lower.

Swinging at balls out of the strike zone, that a hitter can't handle unless his name is either Tony Gwynn or Vlad Guerrero, does not equal more runs. If pitchers are going to pitch around Dunn then he needs to take the walks. Simple. The solution is getting better players protecting him, not requiring him to hit bad pitches.

pedro
05-16-2005, 02:10 PM
compromise, compute your RC when referring to RISP situations for 5/6 hole hitters on the Reds without the 5/6 hole soft BBs this team gets which effectively just become LOB - just leave BBs out of formula.

So basically turn your RC (simple form OBP * TB/PA) into an OPS hybrid where you use BA*SLG. That's a compromise. At least you get your power component (I give there) and I get your soft BBs out of there (you give there).

BF, you seem to imply that RC is just something that Raisor invented. I assume that is an effort to "level the playing field" in an attempt to give equal credibility to the stat you invented - KRISP. It won't work.

But Raisor didn't invent RC. Bill James did.

Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created)


Runs created (RC) is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team.

There are many different formulas for runs created, but the most basic one is:

(H + BB)(TB)/(AB + BB)
or,
OBP × TB

where OBP is on base percentage and TB is total bases. This can also be expressed as:

OBP × SLG × AB

where SLG is slugging percentage and AB is at-bats.

For whole teams, runs created turns out to correlate fairly well with the number of runs a team actually scores, though there are more complex versions of the formula which are even more accurate. This correlation is the justification of the use of OPS as a useful (and simple) player evaluation metric.

Runs created in its basic form takes into account for level of production and amount of playing time. It is sometimes expressed as a rate stat, to consider only level of production, and is usually expressed as runs created per some number of outs, e.g. RC/25 or RC/27 (27 of course being the number of outs per team in a standard 9-inning baseball game).

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 02:11 PM
Ugh - but they are not soft walks! If Adam Dunn does as you want him to and swings at balls so that he doesn't walk then his BA will go down further (cause, contrary to what you seem to be thinking, pitchers in major league baseball who don't wear a Reds unifrom are pretty doggone good) then you will be complaining that his batting average is even lower.

Swinging at balls out of the strike zone, that a hitter can't handle unless his name is either Tony Gwynn or Vlad Guerrero, does not equal more runs. If pitchers are going to pitch around Dunn then he needs to take the walks. Simple. The solution is getting better players protecting him, not requiring him to hit bad pitches.The better "solution" is don't blame the players around you. Instead see it as challenge to become more complete hitter. Learn now to take advantage of the one or two hittable pitches you might get in an RISP situation and get a hit to drive the run(s) in even if it is not an HR. You think other players with talent who went on to be great players didn't have to learn that?

westofyou
05-16-2005, 02:16 PM
In other "Invented stats" Best LF's in the NL by VORP


NAME TEAM LG POS PA PA% AVG OBP SLG SB CS MLVr PMLVr VORPr MLV PMLV VORP

Adam Dunn CIN NL lf 150 10.5 0.263 0.440 0.667 3 1 0.524 0.517 0.644 18.3 18.1 22.5
Miguel Cabrera FLO NL lf 138 10.8 0.376 0.413 0.592 0 0 0.522 0.519 0.635 17.2 17.1 21.0
Jason Bay PIT NL lf 159 11.7 0.297 0.352 0.538 2 0 0.262 0.271 0.403 9.9 10.3 15.3
Cliff Floyd NYN NL lf 133 9.2 0.317 0.376 0.592 3 2 0.381 0.377 0.484 12.0 11.9 15.3
Luis Gonzalez ARI NL lf 169 11.1 0.308 0.402 0.469 2 0 0.207 0.202 0.335 8.1 7.9 13.1
Ryan Klesko SDN NL lf 147 9.7 0.280 0.388 0.560 1 3 0.322 0.318 0.389 10.6 10.5 12.9
Pat Burrell PHI NL lf 151 10.2 0.289 0.377 0.484 0 0 0.203 0.198 0.315 7.3 7.1 11.3
Reggie Sanders SLN NL lf 117 8.1 0.257 0.333 0.600 2 1 0.283 0.285 0.396 7.7 7.7 10.7

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 02:30 PM
Pedro I only refer to it as "Raisor's" because in previous dialogues he and I have had he has made it clear that it is his stat of choice. I understand Bill James came up with and I'm even aware of a little of its history and the changes it has undergone.

RosieRed
05-16-2005, 02:59 PM
BadFundamentals, if Dunn is such an awful player, especially in "situational" hitting, how do you explain the fact that he leads this team in RBI? If Dunn is "bad," but leads the team in RBI, what does that say about the rest of this team?

BTW, Dunn also leads the team in home runs (obviously), total bases, runs scored, is second in OBP (to Freel), and is OPSing over 1.100. In fact, his OPS is the 4th highest in ALL of major league baseball.

IslandRed
05-16-2005, 03:24 PM
I usually try to stay out of this, but I'll interject a few things for the sake of wasting time:

* How many hitters are there, now or historically, whose stats would be really impressive if you threw out the best 10% of individual game performances?

* If I'm building a team, I need to take a macro view of the season.

Why? Because the baseball season is 162 games long. It's a relentless averaging-out, regression-to-the-mean, however you put it. I'm a believer in the Pythagorean Theorem. It's never been demonstrated that a particular type of ballclub can consistently outperform, or underperform, the won-lost record you could predict simply by knowing how many runs it will score and allow during the season. So, if I want to win more games, I need to figure out how to make my team score more and allow less over the course of the season. That's a macro question, not a micro one. And here's where Runs Created comes in -- it's a reliably accurate way to estimate how many runs my team will score, and doles out credit to the players in proportion to their contribution.

Now, I don't mean to imply that the little things don't exist or don't matter. But it's easy to get immersed in them and lose sight of the big picture. If the little things were more important than the big things, they wouldn't be called little.

Raisor
05-16-2005, 04:09 PM
So basically turn your RC (simple form OBP * TB/PA) into an OPS hybrid where you use BA*SLG. That's a compromise. At least you get your power component (I give there) and I get your soft BBs out of there (you give there).


Fine, run the numbers, see which is more accurate.

Go from there.

M2
05-16-2005, 04:15 PM
The top hitters in MLB for BA w/RISP (10 or more ABs needed to qualify):

Olmedo Saenz
Sandy Alomar Jr.
Aaron Miles
Tomas Perez
Todd Greene
John McDonald
Luis Matos

There's a group of world beaters if ever there was one.

Red Leader
05-16-2005, 04:17 PM
The top hitters in MLB for BA w/RISP (10 or more ABs needed to qualify):

Olmedo Saenz
Sandy Alomar Jr.
Aaron Miles
Tomas Perez
Todd Greene
John McDonald
Luis Matos

There's a group of world beaters if ever there was one.

Ahhh, the KRISPY 7. :laugh:

I wouldn't trade Dunn for all 7 of them and a top pitching prospect.

Puffy
05-16-2005, 04:19 PM
Ahhh, the KRISPY 7. :laugh:



Ladies and gentlemen, meet the new name of my softball team, the Team Puffy KRISPY 7.

Good job RL!!

westofyou
05-16-2005, 04:20 PM
The top hitters in MLB for BA w/RISP (10 or more ABs needed to qualify):

Olmedo Saenz
Sandy Alomar Jr.
Aaron Miles
Tomas Perez
Todd Greene
John McDonald
Luis Matos

There's a group of world beaters if ever there was one.

In other news the 1970-1979 Reds led all NL teams in Strikeouts, they also destroyed the compition in secondary skills and walks (many probably "soft") all the while sacrificing far less than the average NL team


NATIONAL LEAGUE
CAREER
1970-1979
WALKS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SACRIFICES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SACRIFICES vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SECONDARY AVERAGE vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

STRIKEOUTS SO BB SAC SAC SEC
1 Reds 9222 549 679 211 .030
2 Padres 9117 -705 991 516 -.030
3 Phillies 9017 -304 653 182 -.005
4 Giants 8927 196 785 315 .005
5 Mets 8685 -106 813 336 -.026
6 Expos 8632 -314 921 449 -.017
7 Pirates 8577 -1038 629 158 -.010
8 Astros 8340 -645 771 299 -.020
9 Dodgers 8114 -185 872 401 -.004
10 Cubs 8083 -30 801 330 -.011
11 Braves 8033 -263 759 288 -.012
12 Cardinals 7942 -727 692 219 -.029

M2
05-16-2005, 04:23 PM
WOY, next thing you're going to tell me is the BRM won close games thanks to a consistent offensive attack, defense, superior baserunning and a strong bullpen.

Everyone knows that's a lie and it's because Tony Perez hit .827 w/RISP.

westofyou
05-16-2005, 04:25 PM
Everyone knows that's a lie and it's because Tony Perez hit .827 w/RISP.

Don't forget Pete's hustle.

pedro
05-16-2005, 04:37 PM
Don't forget Pete's hustle.


http://www.strangesports.com/images/content/16362.JPG

Red Leader
05-16-2005, 04:40 PM
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Great pic, pedro.

Raisor
05-16-2005, 05:54 PM
I think the numbers speak for themselves:

National League Rank
OVERALL

OBP-.440, 6th in NL
SLG-.667, 2nd in NL
OPS-1.107, 3rd in NL
RC-33.8, 4th in NL
RC/27-10.37, 4th in NL

w/RISP
(25 TPA minimum, 120 qualified players)
TPA-42, T-28th in NL
OBP-.548, 5th in NL
SLG-.640, T-21st in NL
OPS-1.188, 12th in NL
RC-9.9, 8th in NL
RC/27-13.33, 9th in NL

KronoRed
05-16-2005, 06:34 PM
Pedro..how bout a warning next time? ;)

Raisor
05-16-2005, 06:54 PM
So basically turn your RC (simple form OBP * TB/PA) into an OPS hybrid where you use BA*SLG. That's a compromise. At least you get your power component (I give there) and I get your soft BBs out of there (you give there).

Well, since you haven't given us an example, I guess I'll do this myself.

This, it seems, is what you are proposing:

(H/AB)*(TB/AB)

Let's look at the Reds and see what that gives us:

Hits 314
AB 1247
TB 533
AB 1247
(314/1247)*(533/1247)

0.1076 BF Runs Created

Might want to go back to the drawing board on this one.

Tony Cloninger
05-16-2005, 06:55 PM
Is that Pete's planned speech when he gets into the HOF?

KronoRed
05-16-2005, 07:05 PM
Is that Pete's planned speech when he gets into the HOF?

It's what he said to Bud in their last meeting ;)

Tony Cloninger
05-16-2005, 07:20 PM
I've got your lifetime ban right here BUD! :thumbup:

Reds Nd2
05-16-2005, 07:29 PM
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Great pic, pedro.

Is that what's meant by the "hidden ball" trick? :cool:

Raisor
05-16-2005, 07:55 PM
I'm just looking for guys to get on base and score runs, doing what they are supposed to do out there. [Drawing walks] is huge. If you swing at pitches that aren't strikes, you get yourself out. The goal is to try to have the pitcher get you out. You want to limit getting yourself out as much as you can, and Lyle has done that."
--Brewers manager Ned Yost (MLB.com)

"The game comes down to runs and outs. You want to score more runs than the other team before you run out of outs. The way to do that is to get on base as much as possible, and there is a correlation between seeing a lot of pitches and having a high on-base percentage."
--Indians assistant GM Chris Antonetti

westofyou
05-16-2005, 08:02 PM
I'm just looking for guys to get on base and score runs, doing what they are supposed to do out there. [Drawing walks] is huge. If you swing at pitches that aren't strikes, you get yourself out. The goal is to try to have the pitcher get you out. You want to limit getting yourself out as much as you can, and Lyle has done that."
--Brewers manager Ned Yost (MLB.com)

"The game comes down to runs and outs. You want to score more runs than the other team before you run out of outs. The way to do that is to get on base as much as possible, and there is a correlation between seeing a lot of pitches and having a high on-base percentage."
--Indians assistant GM Chris Antonetti

"He's the laziest damn ballplayer I've ever seen in my life, he never takes the bat off his shoulder."

Bill DeWitt on Roy Cullenbine after his 1941 season with the Browns.




1941

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1941 Browns 27 149 501 82 159 29 9 9 1.80 98 121 43 6 4 .317 .465 .452 .917
TOTALS 149 501 82 159 29 9 9 1.80 98 121 43 6 4 .317 .465 .452 .917
LG AVERAGE 464 66 128 23 6 9 1.84 61 53 41 5 4 .276 .406 .352 .758
POS AVERAGE 474 73 137 24 6 11 2.41 71 63 43 8 5 .289 .439 .375 .814

YEAR TEAM RC RCAA RCAP OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO SEC BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
1941 Browns 120 48 33 .719 9.13 233 47 .148 .393 .567 0 2 5 0 4 355 629 LF
TOTALS 120 48 33 .719 9.13 233 47 .148 .393 .567 0 2 5 0 4 355 629
LG AVERAGE 70 0 0 .500 5.33 188 38 .130 .249 .453 0 2 5 0 10 355 524
POS AVERAGE 85 15 0 .586 6.47 208 41 .149 .289 .495 0 2 4 0 9 355 542

Raisor
05-16-2005, 08:04 PM
Yikes WOY, you trying to blind me???

:help:



"

1941

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1941 Browns 27 149 501 82 159 29 9 9 1.80 98 121 43 6 4 .317 .465 .452 .917
TOTALS 149 501 82 159 29 9 9 1.80 98 121 43 6 4 .317 .465 .452 .917
LG AVERAGE 464 66 128 23 6 9 1.84 61 53 41 5 4 .276 .406 .352 .758
POS AVERAGE 474 73 137 24 6 11 2.41 71 63 43 8 5 .289 .439 .375 .814

YEAR TEAM RC RCAA RCAP OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO SEC BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
1941 Browns 120 48 33 .719 9.13 233 47 .148 .393 .567 0 2 5 0 4 355 629 LF
TOTALS 120 48 33 .719 9.13 233 47 .148 .393 .567 0 2 5 0 4 355 629
LG AVERAGE 70 0 0 .500 5.33 188 38 .130 .249 .453 0 2 5 0 10 355 524
POS AVERAGE 85 15 0 .586 6.47 208 41 .149 .289 .495 0 2 4 0 9 355 542

BadFundamentals
05-16-2005, 08:08 PM
Well, since you haven't given us an example, I guess I'll do this myself.

This, it seems, is what you are proposing:

(H/AB)*(TB/AB)

Let's look at the Reds and see what that gives us:

Hits 314
AB 1247
TB 533
AB 1247
(314/1247)*(533/1247)

0.1076 BF Runs Created

Might want to go back to the drawing board on this one.
Actually Dunn's numbers shake out about how I would expect.



THREE YEAR PERIOD FROM 2002-2004
Runners NOT in Scoring Position Scoring Position
SLG 0.522 0.434
BA 0.258 0.21
SLG+BA 0.780 0.644


2005
Runners NOT in Scoring Position Scoring Position
SLG 0.786 0.64
BA 0.269 0.24
SLG+BA 1.055 0.88



His productivity when figured in this manner fell by 22% with RISP from 2002-2004. This year it falls by 17% with RISP. That's what you like to see - guys raising game in critical hitting situations.

Raisor
05-16-2005, 08:12 PM
Actually Dunn's numbers shake out about how I would expect.

You might want to check your post, nothing was in the "code" section.

Raisor
05-16-2005, 08:20 PM
Actually Dunn's numbers shake out about how I would expect.



THREE YEAR PERIOD FROM 2002-2004
Runners NOT in Scoring Position Scoring Position
SLG 0.522 0.434
BA 0.258 0.21
SLG+BA 0.780 0.644


2005
Runners NOT in Scoring Position Scoring Position
SLG 0.786 0.64
BA 0.269 0.24
SLG+BA 1.055 0.88



His productivity when figured in this manner fell by 22% with RISP from 2002-2004. This year it falls by 17% with RISP. That's what you like to see - guys raising game in critical hitting situations.


OK, I understand what you're doing now, not BA x SLG, but BA + SLG.

I highly doubt that it's going to be more accurate then OPS, but I'll let you try to convince me.

SteelSD
05-16-2005, 08:25 PM
I honestly can't believe we're revisiting this topic AGAIN, particularly when we see this:

Adam Dunn 2005:

None On: .257 BA/.366 OBP/.643 SLG- 1.009 OPS
Runners On: .273 BA/.529 OBP/.705 SLG- 1.234 OPS
w/RISP: .240 BA/.548 OBP/.640 SLG- 1.188 OPS
Close and Late: .375 BA/.545 OBP/.813 SLG- 1.358 OPS

Dunn currently has 25 AB with RISP. His overall BA is .263. Anyone know the difference between a .240 BA and a .263 BA over 25 AB???

About half a hit. HALF A HIT. ONE HALF OF A BASE HIT.

Freakin' guy's mashing the ball. Producing HOF numbers- never mind "All Star" numbers. His power allows the team to score Runs that a .300 BA singles hitter couldn't dream of producing (particularly because that hitter won't score Runners from 1B when there are MULTIPLE runners on, and it makes him FAR more valuable than your .300 singles hitter when Runners aren't standing on 2nd and 3rd).

Not only is Adam Dunn producing the requisite hit rate across the board that SHOULD, if any logical constancy were to be shown, alleviate BF's "concern", but he's ADDING a tremendous number of Run Scoring opportunities by not swinging at balls when he's being pitched around.

Guy's hitting across all situations, his situational numbers are actually BETTER than his None On numbers, his K rate is down versus last season, he's utilizing his speed when called upon to do so, and his fielding continues to improve.

There isn't a possible rational exception to how Adam Dunn plays the game of baseball right now. He is a monster that the Reds have never seen previously and very well may never see again.

And he just keeps getting better. I, for one, am glad that we're to the point with Dunn that no reasonable human being could possibly denigrate his game. Been a long time coming.

Reds Nd2
05-16-2005, 08:28 PM
Actually Dunn's numbers shake out about how I would expect.

How would you know? Do you have some baseline to compare the following to?


THREE YEAR PERIOD FROM 2002-2004
Runners NOT in Scoring Position Scoring Position
SLG 0.522 0.434
BA 0.258 0.21
SLG+BA 0.780 0.644

Without a baseline of comparable players, there is no way to dechiper the meaning of the latest stat you've invented and even if you do have one, your making the same mistake of using a small sample size in RISP. How many runs has Dunn driven in with your new stat? How many times has Dunn scored with OPS Unlimited?

Your stat leaves too many unanswered questions and I would guess, too few answers.

Raisor
05-16-2005, 09:09 PM
if you're going to take BB out of the equations, I'd rather see it done with the RC formula instead of getting another "rate" stat.

Let's use the "simple" version of the RC stat and convert it to BA.

Forgetting BB, we'd get this formula:
H*(TB/AB)
For the Reds, that would give us 134 BF RC's vs 174 Actual Runs (77% accuracy)
The RC that espn.com uses gives the Reds 179.1 (97.2% accuracy).

does that mean that walks have given the Reds around 40 runs this year?
hmmmmmm

TeamBoone
05-16-2005, 10:08 PM
His productivity when figured in this manner fell by 22% with RISP from 2002-2004. This year it falls by 17% with RISP. That's what you like to see - guys raising game in critical hitting situations.

Oh for Pete's sake! He hits in a ton that are NOT in scoring position. :bang:

MWM
05-16-2005, 10:19 PM
Dunn's pretty darn good in close and late situations, huh...... Which one is more "clutch"?

Raisor
05-17-2005, 12:57 AM
You and I have been over this before regarding how your RC formula does not address "timeliness".

old saying about winning baseball..."pitching and TIMELY hitting"......step further, TIMELY run scoring.

You are all about scoring as many runs as possible in SEASON - more is better period with you. "Games" don't exist to you. I'd rather get timely hits and score timely runs and spend left over $$$$ on PITCHING. I don't want to pay multi-millions to guys who might create X number of runs but struggle year in and year out with timeliness of their productivity. Give me fewer but more timely runs and better pitching.

Rereading this thread again, and this caught my eye.

Here's something for ya BF. If it's not the total runs a team scores (and in reverse, gives up) that's important, but the micro, then the pythag thm. of baseball wouldn't work. But that's not the case.

If you can accuratly predict a team's record, based only on how many runs a team scores and how many runs a team allows, doesn't that prove my point?

Let's see how accurate the pythag thm is for 2005 so far, shall we?

Of the 30 major league teams, 24 of them are within 2 games of it's predicted record. Another three within 3, leaving three teams at 4+ (with six being the high).

In other words, 80% of the teams within 2 and 90% within 3.

That's just being able to predict based on the gross total of RS and RA.

Not too shabby, imo.

WVPacman
05-17-2005, 01:05 AM
Raisor,It looks like your Tiger knows what hes doing when it comes to dancing?? :laugh:

RosieRed
05-17-2005, 01:06 AM
BadFundamentals, if Dunn is such an awful player, especially in "situational" hitting, how do you explain the fact that he leads this team in RBI? If Dunn is "bad," but leads the team in RBI, what does that say about the rest of this team?

BTW, Dunn also leads the team in home runs (obviously), total bases, runs scored, is second in OBP (to Freel), and is OPSing over 1.100. In fact, his OPS is the 4th highest in ALL of major league baseball.

No answer to this ... :dunno:

NJReds
05-17-2005, 10:25 AM
Just a note from last night's game...

The Mets announcers were talking about Cliff Floyd and how he had struggled recently since his torrid hot streak (that is until he faced Paul "Slump Buster" Wilson).

The announcer noted that pitchers started pitching around Floyd to get to Piazza (who's hovering around .200, and if you take out his good games he's basically Jason LaRue) ... and that Floyd was swinging at bad pitches.

"Cliff has to take the walk in these situations. Keep the inning alive and don't swing at bad pitches. That's what the pitcher wants."

This may have been mentioned once or twice before...but I thought I'd bring it up again.

MWM
05-17-2005, 11:19 AM
If it's not the total runs a team scores (and in reverse, gives up) that's important, but the micro, then the pythag thm. of baseball wouldn't work. But that's not the case.


I tried that one already, Raisor. Didn't work. It's basic logic that "winning single games" regardless of things like OPS and RC contradicts something like Pyth. Yet it still proves to be incredible accurate. One has to be accurate because the two can't co-exist.

BadFundamentals
05-17-2005, 01:25 PM
If you can accuratly predict a team's record, based only on how many runs a team scores and how many runs a team allows, doesn't that prove my point?
.
I'll take your word for it about the accuracy of the pythag thm of baseball. And I'll agree that it strengthens your case for the value in looking at game-less runs over course of season but doesn't "prove" anything specifically in our discussion.

We're still talking about the Reds fielding the best team given a Cincinnati Reds level budget constraint. What are the two most expensive components (players) in baseball these days? Starting Pitching and Power Bats.

I still like the 1990 Reds as something of a blueprint for how the Reds might contend given their budget constrainsts. #1 a lights out bullpen (affordable and possible), #2 Solid to very good starting pitching (pipe dream at this point) and #3 Some versatile core position players complemented by some role guys.

Here's where we differ I don't want to pay an everyday guy big $$$$ unless he is the whole enchilada. Not with the Reds budget. On a team like the Reds I'll save my big salaries for guys like Larkin in his prime or what the Reds thought they were getting when signing Griffey. Not going to lock up any position player long term for big $$$ if I know up front he is NOT and won't be a versatile, total package player - particularly the POWER guys who are extra expensive in today's baseball economics.

rdiersin
05-17-2005, 01:53 PM
I'll take your word for it about the accuracy of the pythag thm of baseball. And I'll agree that it strengthens your case for the value in looking at game-less runs over course of season but doesn't "prove" anything specifically in our discussion.

We're still talking about the Reds fielding the best team given a Cincinnati Reds level budget constraint. What are the two most expensive components (players) in baseball these days? Starting Pitching and Power Bats.

I still like the 1990 Reds as something of a blueprint for how the Reds might contend given their budget constrainsts. #1 a lights out bullpen (affordable and possible), #2 Solid to very good starting pitching (pipe dream at this point) and #3 Some versatile core position players complemented by some role guys.

Here's where we differ I don't want to pay an everyday guy big $$$$ unless he is the whole enchilada. Not with the Reds budget. On a team like the Reds I'll save my big salaries for guys like Larkin in his prime or what the Reds thought they were getting when signing Griffey. Not going to lock up any position player long term for big $$$ if I know up front he is NOT and won't be a versatile, total package player - particularly the POWER guys who are extra expensive in today's baseball economics.

But is measuring players by their hitting with RISP the way to do it? That's the question. It has been shown in these threads before that hitting with RISP varies widely from year to year. That is not a peformance measure you want to use when looking at players with a small market team. You want consistency, i.e. to minimize risk. You want to know what you got. RISP stats aren't the way to get that. Seems to me that you would want to look at things like RC. RC, EqA, XR, and other similar stats take alot more into consideration then just HRs and BBs.

BadFundamentals
05-17-2005, 03:23 PM
But is measuring players by their hitting with RISP the way to do it? That's the question. It has been shown in these threads before that hitting with RISP varies widely from year to year. .
Just because an attribute varies greatly year to year for certain players doesn't mean it is destined to vary greatly for all types of players or for all individuals.

Take golf, there are plenty of similarities between golf and baseball. In both cases, final score will be a result of all holes/innings but along the way there will be critical putts/shots or at bats/plays which make or break momentum and/or even determine outcomes.

No doubt "Final Round Scoring Average" or "Putting Leaders" varies greatly from year to year for players. But similarly there are no doubt certain players who do relatively well most every year in those areas and certain players who seem doomed to struggle relatively speaking in those areas year to year.............

wheels
05-17-2005, 03:30 PM
But is measuring players by their hitting with RISP the way to do it? That's the question. It has been shown in these threads before that hitting with RISP varies widely from year to year. That is not a peformance measure you want to use when looking at players with a small market team. You want consistency, i.e. to minimize risk. You want to know what you got. RISP stats aren't the way to get that. Seems to me that you would want to look at things like RC. RC, EqA, XR, and other similar stats take alot more into consideration then just HRs and BBs.

He's not really trying to measure the value of players.

He's picking the one thing he THINKS Adam Dunn doesn't do well, and he's harping on it, regardless of the mountains of data presented to him.

He doesn't like Adam Dunn for some reason, and he's fillabustering.

He's been doing this for months on end.

It's enough to make your head spin if you let it.

pedro
05-17-2005, 03:32 PM
Just because an attribute varies greatly year to year for certain players doesn't mean it is destined to vary greatly for all types of players or for all individuals.



Ok. You've commented that Casey and Randa are the type of hitters that the Reds need. Let's take a look at their BA with RISP for last 4 years.


Casey
2001 .356
2002 .204
2003 .336
2004 .304

Randa

2001 .315
2002 .267
2003 .288
2004 .276

That's a good bit of variability if you ask me.

BadFundamentals
05-17-2005, 03:39 PM
?? excuse me?....I probably have stated I've liked what I've seen from Randa THIS year and would like to see more of what he is doing from more players. Never said anything about what Randa has done in previous years.

And I do know that Casey's lifetime batting average is 20 points HIGHER with RISP than his already well above average batting average.

M2
05-17-2005, 03:39 PM
Just a note from last night's game...

The Mets announcers were talking about Cliff Floyd and how he had struggled recently since his torrid hot streak (that is until he faced Paul "Slump Buster" Wilson).

The announcer noted that pitchers started pitching around Floyd to get to Piazza (who's hovering around .200, and if you take out his good games he's basically Jason LaRue) ... and that Floyd was swinging at bad pitches.

"Cliff has to take the walk in these situations. Keep the inning alive and don't swing at bad pitches. That's what the pitcher wants."

This may have been mentioned once or twice before...but I thought I'd bring it up again.

I forgot how good Fran Healy is until the first series of the year and last night's game. Might be the best local color man in the business, though Jerry Remy's mighty good too.

westofyou
05-17-2005, 03:40 PM
Batting Average is the crutch of weak minds.

pedro
05-17-2005, 03:43 PM
?? excuse me?....I probably have stated I've liked what I've seen from Randa THIS year and would like to see more of what he is doing from more players. Never said anything about what Randa has done in previous years.

And I do know that Casey's lifetime batting average is 20 points HIGHER with RISP than his already well above average batting average.

yes, but we're discussing the merits of using BA w/ RISP as a metric for evaluating a players value to a team. I am just trying to show that it is unpredictable.

If you have a counter argument with stats to back up, then let's hear it.

BadFundamentals
05-17-2005, 03:43 PM
Batting Average is the crutch of weak minds.
Being unable to communicate in any terms other than numbers/formulas/tables shows "weak" conceptual/abstract thinking.

CaiGuy
05-17-2005, 03:44 PM
Batting Average is the crutch of weak minds.No, no, that isn't true.

HR=triple=double=single

That sounds the right formula for judging hitters doesn't it? :rolleyes:

pedro
05-17-2005, 03:46 PM
Being unable to communicate in any terms other than numbers/formulas/tables shows "weak" conceptual/abstract thinking.

and the inability to grasp statistical concepts shows "weak" logic skills.

CaiGuy
05-17-2005, 03:47 PM
Being unable to communicate in any terms other than numbers/formulas/tables shows "weak" conceptual/abstract thinking.Yep, the value of players are based on personal opinions and biased viewpoints. :help: :rolleyes:

BadFundamentals
05-17-2005, 03:47 PM
yes, but we're discussing the merits of using BA w/ RISP as a metric for evaluating a players value to a team. I am just trying to show that it is unpredictable.

If you have a counter argument with stats to back up, then let's hear it.

Unpredictable? How his Casey being 20 points higher lifetime with RISP than his lifetime average unpredictable? And how is 4 consecutive years of RISP hitting below overall batting average and a lifetime RISP average 40 points below career average unpredictable?

I'd say in both cases you have a trend albeit in need of margin year to year variances.......

pedro
05-17-2005, 03:50 PM
Unpredictable? How his Casey being 20 points higher lifetime with RISP than his lifetime average unpredictable? And how is 4 consecutive years of RISP hitting below overall batting average and a lifetime RISP average 40 points below career average unpredictable?

I'd say in both cases you have a trend albeit in need of margin year to year variances.......

Because it varies from year to year. So willing to throw out the "micro" when it doesn't suit your agenda, aren't you?

rdiersin
05-17-2005, 03:55 PM
Ok. You've commented that Casey and Randa are the type of hitters that the Reds need. Let's take a look at their BA with RISP for last 4 years.


Casey
2001 .356
2002 .204
2003 .336
2004 .304

Randa

2001 .315
2002 .267
2003 .288
2004 .276

That's a good bit of variability if you ask me.

I'm sorry if this is off subject, but where did you get those stats Pedro? I've been searching for RISP stats and haven't found many.

pedro
05-17-2005, 03:57 PM
Unpredictable? How his Casey being 20 points higher lifetime with RISP than his lifetime average unpredictable? And how is 4 consecutive years of RISP hitting below overall batting average and a lifetime RISP average 40 points below career average unpredictable?

I'd say in both cases you have a trend albeit in need of margin year to year variances.......

and yes, Dunn's BA w/ RISP has consistently been below his overall BA. But it's awful hard to get hits when pitchers are pitching around you. Nobody pitches around Casey, not when there is a DP to be had.

pedro
05-17-2005, 03:58 PM
I'm sorry if this is off subject, but where did you get those stats Pedro? I've been searching for RISP stats and haven't found many.

yahoo has situational stats. I thought ESPN used to, but not anymore.

Puffy
05-17-2005, 04:04 PM
and yes, Dunn's BA w/ RISP has consistently been below his overall BA. But it's awful hard to get hits when pitchers are pitching around you. Nobody pitches around Casey, not when there is a DP to be had.

I guarantee you that if Adam Dunn changed his approach and swung at bad pitches in RISP situations and raised his average 20 points, but his OBP and SLG dropped because of it, his RBI's would go up. And team runs would go down (less people on base, Dunn making more out because even with the increased BA his swinging at bad pitches would increase his out totals) and BF would still blame him for the Reds decrease in runs scored.

In other words, Adam Dunn is at fault no matter what. Damned if he do, damned if he don't.

wheels
05-17-2005, 04:06 PM
I guarantee you that if Adam Dunn changed his approach and swung at bad pitches in RISP situations and raised his average 20 points, but his OBP and SLG dropped because of it, his RBI's would go up. And team runs would go down (less people on base, Dunn making more out because even with the increased BA his swinging at bad pitches would increase his out totals) and BF would still blame him for the Reds decrease in runs scored.

In other words, Adam Dunn is at fault no matter what. Damned if he do, damned if he don't.

That's what I mean.

It's no use trying to argue with the guy.

It's a personal thing to him, an unnatural obsession.

He's like Robert DeNiro in that movie "The Fan" or something.

westofyou
05-17-2005, 04:07 PM
He's like Robert DeNiro in that movie "The Fan" or something.

More like Travis Bickle IMO.

WVPacman
05-17-2005, 04:09 PM
He's like Robert DeNiro in that movie "The Fan" or something.

Damn good movie!!!!! :thumbup:

M2
05-17-2005, 04:10 PM
yahoo has situational stats. I thought ESPN used to, but not anymore.

ESPN still has them. Just go to the team stats pages and select whichever split you want.

wheels
05-17-2005, 04:12 PM
More like Travis Bickle IMO.

You talkin' to ME?

RosieRed
05-17-2005, 04:28 PM
BadFundamentals, why the obsession with BA w/RISP? What do you think that stat represents? Does it represent "clutch" to you? Does it represent the ability to drive in runs?

WVPacman
05-17-2005, 04:32 PM
BadFundamentals, why the obsession with BA w/RISP? What do you think that stat represents? Does it represent "clutch" to you? Does it represent the ability to drive in runs?

Preach it Rosie Preach it!!!! :thumbup:

rdiersin
05-17-2005, 04:55 PM
yahoo has situational stats. I thought ESPN used to, but not anymore.

Thanks Pedro and M2.

Stormy
05-17-2005, 04:59 PM
and yes, Dunn's BA w/ RISP has consistently been below his overall BA. But it's awful hard to get hits when pitchers are pitching around you.

Exactly. For example, if you want a truly illustrative, consistent pattern which depicts the manner in which Dunn is treated in RISP situations (like most great power hitters), simply look at the way his OBP escalates in those situations versus his bases empty At Bats.

Dunn's Situational Numbers...

2002 Bases Empty OBP: 361 ------- 2002 RISP OBP: 439
2003 Bases Empty OBP: 312 ------- 2003 RISP OBP: 369
2004 Bases Empty OBP: 354 ------- 2004 RISP OBP: 438
2005 Bases Empty OBP: 360 ------- 2005 RISP OBP: 548

There is a reason that over the span of his 2200+ career Plate Appearances, Dunn boasts an OBP nearly 70 points higher with RISP, than he does with the bases empty. Pitchers, always more selective and sensitive in how they pitch in those situations, are even more careful in how they pitch a masher like Dunn in those situations. Whether it's with Runners On, RISP or Runners on 2nd and 3rd, Dunn's OBP escalates every year, over his Bases Empty OBP, in those situations, even in years where his Batting Average goes down under those conditions. That combination of factors is indicative of a player who is being pitched around, and/or pitched very carefully in those situations, and with good reason. He's wise not to expand his strikezone, as Puffy mentioned, decreasing his BA further, making more Outs with no guarantee of more RBI conversions, and giving the Reds fewer baserunners (and overall Runs Scored as a team) in the process.

Reds Nd2
05-17-2005, 05:01 PM
I'm sorry if this is off subject, but where did you get those stats Pedro? I've been searching for RISP stats and haven't found many.

SI has them too. Plus they have fielding stats.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/teams/stats/2005/reds/0_batting.html

ochre
05-17-2005, 05:05 PM
ESPN still has them, just tougher to find them.

rdiersin
05-17-2005, 05:07 PM
Just because an attribute varies greatly year to year for certain players doesn't mean it is destined to vary greatly for all types of players or for all individuals.


OK. So what about teams? Looking at data for batting avg in risp for teams in 2003 and 2004, we see that we have a coefficient of correlation of 0.2771. That says that there isn't very much correlation to a team that bats well with risp one year with what they may do the next. OPS (overall, not with risp) gives a better correlation coefficient, 0.4071. This is only an example, and a simple one at that, but just because you have a team that hits well with risp one year, doesn't mean they will do the same the next year.

I'm not trying to egg you on or anything. I am just really trying to help with whatever you are trying to figure out. I think you want a team that does the fundamentals well like 90, and try to look at it from a statistical viewpoint. But I really don't think that avg with risp is the answer, but thats just MO.

Stormy
05-17-2005, 05:16 PM
And I do know that Casey's lifetime batting average is 20 points HIGHER with RISP than his already well above average batting average.

Really? And yet Sean Casey, who has spent his entire career hitting in the primary RBI spots (#3-5) of the Reds' lineup, having multiple 600+ plate appearance years in his prime, with more seasons in the league at an advanced age, hitting 20 points higher with RISP than his normal BA over his career... has never posted even a 100 RBI season, nor has he ever approached the type of RC, RC/27, OPS production numbers already achieved by his 25 year old lesser, known as Adam Dunn. With all of those added advantages, opportunities, balls put into play, extra ABs, superior numbers with RISP, Casey can't even match Dunn in your arcane stat of choice... RBI conversion rate.

SteelSD
05-17-2005, 09:14 PM
And I do know that Casey's lifetime batting average is 20 points HIGHER with RISP than his already well above average batting average.

Sean Casey 2002-2005

Overall Batting Average: .295
Batting Average with RISP: .287

From 2002 to today, Sean Casey's BA with RISP has trended DOWN- demonstrating the same regression to the mean you'll see with everyone.

Stop attempting to position Casey as being your posterboy for "clutch". He's not. He doesn't, at all, raise his game with Runners on 2nd and/or 3rd. In fact, Casey's Batting Average is worse with RISP over his last 1569 At-Bats than his norm. Yeah, that's right...Sean Casey has been a choker using your logic.

You're clinging to data that has absolutely no predictive value. If it did, Sean Casey's Batting Average would be 20 points above his normal production level during the period I cited.

But let's take a look at the following then:

Sean Casey 2002-2005

Overall Batting Average: .295
Batting Average with None On: .287
Batting Average with RISP: .287 (gee...imagine that...)
Batting Average with Runners On: .309

Ohhh...so maybe Casey is truly clutch. I mean, his BA with Runners On is higher over that time span than without. But, jumping to that conclusion would leave you in quite a pickle, wouldn't it? Why, you ask???

Adam Dunn 2002-2005

Overall Batting Average: .247
Batting Average with None On: .242
Batting Average with Runners On: .253

If you attempted to use Casey's BA with Runners on as evidence of "clutch" ability, you'd have no choice but to include Adam Dunn as a "clutch" player using that criteria.

You've got your hand in a tight jar right now and I'd suggest letting go of the banana.

Stormy
05-17-2005, 10:35 PM
That's another good point, Steel. Casey's BA w/RISP has actually been lower than his overall (and bases empty BA) in 2 of the last 3 seasons, and as he's only had 38ABs with RISP this year, it's too early to rule out a duplication of that decline again this year. Shows how arbitrary and variable that alleged "skill" is, and how far BF has to stretch in order to make it appear that Casey consistently demonstrates an ability with RISP which simply doesn't exist for him over his most recent seasons. Meanwhile, though Dunn's BA fluctuates in those situations, as does Casey's, his OBP in those RISP/Runners On/Runners on 2nd and 3rd situations is a testament to consistent, measurable increase and improvement. Nice post debunking the latest in a series of disingenuous premises propagated by Bad Fundamentals.

BadFundamentals
05-18-2005, 09:39 AM
Some of you are acting like I invented the RISP stat. It's the same stat that countless analysts cite routinely and I assure you I did not make that one up.

If you like OPS/RC stats as macro stats to get high level overall view of player productivity fine. By counting up bases and chances they certainly give you an idea of a player's overall productivity. The overall stats tell you part of the story.

To find rest of the storyyou need to look at situations and what role a given player is performing on team. In simplest terms, I'd say you have table setter type guys (Ryan Freel, Lopez etc..) and rbi type guys (Griffey, Dunn, Casey). A guy like Randa (even Casey) perhaps a tweener?

Would it make sense to hammer Freel if he is NOT on pace for a 100 rbi season?? of course not. His rbi opportunities are likely to be far less than guys like Griffey and Dunn and that is not the role on team he is being asked to fill. If Freel is NOT getting on base though, then that is a problem.....

SIMILARLY, why use OBP to appraise 5 and 6 hole hitters? A BB in 5/6 hole is likely to just end up as a runner LOB. I'd contend SLugging, Batting Avg. and Batting Avg. with RISP would all be far more important than OBP for these 5/6 hole type hitters. Dunn does well with SLG, but struggles with both Batting avg. and Batting with RISP. And taken step further, he is feast/famine in his productivity as illustrated by how his overall numbers can change drastically by just removing a few highly productive games from calculations.

Red Leader
05-18-2005, 10:03 AM
SIMILARLY, why use OBP to appraise 5 and 6 hole hitters? A BB in 5/6 hole is likely to just end up as a runner LOB.

Then how is it that Adam Dunn leads the Reds in runs scored? How is it that he scored over 100 runs last year, and had over 100 RBI?

Raisor
05-18-2005, 07:57 PM
If you like OPS/RC stats as macro stats to get high level overall view of player productivity fine. By counting up bases and chances they certainly give you an idea of a player's overall productivity. The overall stats tell you part of the story.




You've still never explained why you think Runs Created doesn't work in the micro.

BadFundamentals
05-18-2005, 09:33 PM
You've still never explained why you think Runs Created doesn't work in the micro.
Raisor you're killing me. I've laid it out several times. If you don't agree fine we've disagreed before - I'll lay it out one more time.

I'm only speaking regarding the specific micro situation of a #5 or #6 hole hitter in a RISP situation. 5/6 holes are key rbi slots. a BB from 5/6 hole hitter typically just ends up as a runner LOB - especially on this team with a collective 7/8/9 hitter batting average of what about .150? Pretty good chance inning dies in 7/8 or 9 hole- move that 5/6 hole BB into LOB column.

I'm fine with a heavy BB-driven stat like OBP when appraising contribution of a 1, 2 hole hitter - all you want from those guys is to get on base - any way possible. But you're looking for RBI HITS from 5/6 hole guys.

Runs Created formula (RC = ((H+BB)*TB)/(AB+BB)) is equating a single to a BB. A BB from a #5 or #6 hitter with RISP is NOT equal to single! That is why Runs Created doesn't work for me in that micro situation. If it works for you fine. :beerme:

RosieRed
05-18-2005, 09:59 PM
I'm only speaking regarding the specific micro situation of a #5 or #6 hole hitter in a RISP situation. 5/6 holes are key rbi slots. a BB from 5/6 hole hitter typically just ends up as a runner LOB - especially on this team with a collective 7/8/9 hitter batting average of what about .150? Pretty good chance inning dies in 7/8 or 9 hole- move that 5/6 hole BB into LOB column.

I'm fine with a heavy BB-driven stat like OBP when appraising contribution of a 1, 2 hole hitter - all you want from those guys is to get on base - any way possible. But you're looking for RBI HITS from 5/6 hole guys.

Runs Created formula (RC = ((H+BB)*TB)/(AB+BB)) is equating a single to a BB. A BB from a #5 or #6 hitter with RISP is NOT equal to single! That is why Runs Created doesn't work for me in that micro situation. If it works for you fine. :beerme:

Still no explanation, then, of how it's possible that Dunn is leading the team in runs scored, and is second on the team in RBI.

(Dunn has 23 RBI, Griffey now has 24 to lead the team.)

Raisor
05-18-2005, 10:49 PM
Raisor you're killing me. I've laid it out several times. If you don't agree fine we've disagreed before - I'll lay it out one more time.

I'm only speaking regarding the specific micro situation of a #5 or #6 hole hitter in a RISP situation. 5/6 holes are key rbi slots. a BB from 5/6 hole hitter typically just ends up as a runner LOB - especially on this team with a collective 7/8/9 hitter batting average of what about .150? Pretty good chance inning dies in 7/8 or 9 hole- move that 5/6 hole BB into LOB column.

I'm fine with a heavy BB-driven stat like OBP when appraising contribution of a 1, 2 hole hitter - all you want from those guys is to get on base - any way possible. But you're looking for RBI HITS from 5/6 hole guys.

Runs Created formula (RC = ((H+BB)*TB)/(AB+BB)) is equating a single to a BB. A BB from a #5 or #6 hitter with RISP is NOT equal to single! That is why Runs Created doesn't work for me in that micro situation.

Let me try this another way..How can the RC formula be as accurate as it is without it being accurate with RISP?

27% of the Reds' TPA have been w/RISP. How can RC be 97% accurate overall without being accurate in those 414 PA's?

rdiersin
05-18-2005, 10:53 PM
Runs Created formula (RC = ((H+BB)*TB)/(AB+BB)) is equating a single to a BB. A BB from a #5 or #6 hitter with RISP is NOT equal to single! That is why Runs Created doesn't work for me in that micro situation. If it works for you fine. :beerme:

I guess that's the thing. In most RC formulas now the BB and single are not treated equally.
One version is given below.

RC Runs created is found here (http://http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?page=stats/glossary)

RC=[(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP)* (TB+ .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] / (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)


A similar stat is extrapolated runs which is a linear function, developed by Jim Furtado, in which one version is

XRR= (.50 x 1B) + (.72 x 2B) + (1.04 x 3B) + (1.44 x HR) + (.33 x (HBP+BB)) + (.18 x SB) + (-.32 x CS) + ((-.098 x (AB - H))

and more information can be found here (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/scholars/furtado/articles/IntroducingXR.htm).

Raisor
05-18-2005, 10:57 PM
I guess that's the thing. In most RC formulas now the BB and single are not treated equally.
One version is given below.

RC Runs created is found here (http://http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?page=stats/glossary)

RC=[(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP)* (TB+ .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] / (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)


.

This is the version I use, for the reason that it's so easily found on the ESPN.com site.

BadFundamentals
05-18-2005, 10:59 PM
Still no explanation, then, of how it's possible that Dunn is leading the team in runs scored, and is second on the team in RBI.

(Dunn has 23 RBI, Griffey now has 24 to lead the team.)
As for RBIs, see Homeruns. 19 of his 23 RBIs have come from homeruns. (6 solos, 2 two run homeruns, 3 three run homeruns) I'd say that is feast or famine when it comes to driving runners in. Is that good? Is that bad? I'd rather have a little more night in night out productivity from 3/4/5 hole hitters than just hope hope hoping for another homerun every time runners are on base.

As for Runs, again 11 of his 25 are from homeruns. So that leaves 14 runs that he scored from a combination of 21 hits (32 - 11 homeruns) and 33 walks. 54 times he reached base but only scored 14 times.

Lets look at a guy at top of order for Reds where my contention is that OBP is more likely to result in runs. Freel has reached base 48 times (30 hits + 18 BBs) and of those 48, he came around to score 21 times.

When Dunn gets on base he a 26% chance of scoring.
When Freel gets on base he has a 44% chance of scoring.

You tell me which Base on Balls has more value to team? Freel's? or Dunn's? You tell me which BB is softer?

BadFundamentals
05-18-2005, 11:07 PM
rdiersin, I am aware of some of the changes that the RC formula has gone thru over the years and aware that it now even includes components for:

-strikeouts (hmmmmm...maybe a strikeout is NOT just another out?)
-hitting with RISP (hmmmm.... maybe it's NOT all a wash? maybe not just random?)
-solo homeruns (hmmmmm........maybe solos aren't just random events?)

I give James credit for continually looking at formula and revising it. If you can put in layman/simple terms how he has adjusted the value given to BBs vs. value given to a single I would be interested to know.

pedro
05-18-2005, 11:09 PM
As for RBIs, see Homeruns. 19 of his 23 RBIs have come from homeruns. (6 solos, 2 two run homeruns, 3 three run homeruns) I'd say that is feast or famine when it comes to driving runners in. Is that good? Is that bad? I'd rather have a little more night in night out productivity from 3/4/5 hole hitters than just hope hope hoping for another homerun every time runners are on base.

As for Runs, again 11 of his 25 are from homeruns. So that leaves 14 runs that he scored from a combination of 21 hits (32 - 11 homeruns) and 33 walks. 54 times he reached base but only scored 14 times.

Lets look at a guy at top of order for Reds where my contention is that OBP is more likely to result in runs. Freel has reached base 48 times (30 hits + 18 BBs) and of those 48, he came around to score 21 times.

When Dunn gets on base he a 26% chance of scoring.
When Freel gets on base he has a 44% chance of scoring.

You tell me which Base on Balls has more value to team? Freel's? or Dunn's? You tell me which BB is softer?

RBI's - yes but he has them. they are real, even if produced by homeruns.
Runs - see above

As for as the "soft" BB's, don't you think Dunn would have scored more runs if he was hitting higher in the lineup? Freel's got a bunch of dudes to drive him in, Dunn get's the bottom of the lineup.

Try again.

BadFundamentals
05-18-2005, 11:13 PM
RBI's - yes but he has them. they are real, even if produced by homeruns.
Runs - see above

As for as the "soft" BB's, don't you think Dunn would have scored more runs if he was hitting higher in the lineup? Freel's got a bunch of dudes to drive him in, Dunn get's the bottom of the lineup.

Try again.
It's ok. I'll help you along being that you came in late. That IS the point.

Go ahead and use OBP or any other BB-driven stat to make a case for productivity/contribution of a player who is in a top of the order "table setting" role on team.

But ..... OBP from a 5/6 hole hitter does NOT have same value. Their role is to DRIVE IN runs not get to first base via a BB so they can be stranded there when LaRue, Aurilia and pitcher's spot ends the inning.............

Sure a 5/6 hole BB is better than an out but far inferior to a hit, far inferior to the same BB from a top of the order hitter and overall nothing to get all excited about............look at Batting Avg. and Slugging when appraising guys batting in 5/6 holes - their BBs are soft.

rdiersin
05-18-2005, 11:18 PM
rdiersin, I am aware of some of the changes that the RC formula has gone thru over the years and aware that it now even includes components for:

-strikeouts (hmmmmm...maybe a strikeout is NOT just another out?)
-hitting with RISP (hmmmm.... maybe it's NOT all a wash? maybe not just random?)
-solo homeruns (hmmmmm........maybe solos aren't just random events?)

I give James credit for continually looking at formula and revising it. If you can put in layman/simple terms how he has adjusted the value given to BBs vs. value given to a single I would be interested to know.

I thought that he had but looking at the RC formula again, I see that he hasn't, my bad. But you should look at the XRR formula, it certainly does treat them with different weights. Maybe it is some sort of a compromise for you.

Raisor
05-18-2005, 11:23 PM
[QUOTE=BadFundamentals]

But ..... OBP from a 5/6 hole hitter does NOT have same value. Their role is to DRIVE IN runs not get to first base via a BB so they can be stranded there when LaRue, Aurilia and pitcher's spot ends the inning.............

[QUOTE]

Their role is to create runs.

Runs are created by not making outs.

Think of RUNS as a chain of events. A walk in the first inning can help create a run in the 6th, by extending the chain.

A great example is what's been going on recently. With the lineup the way it is, JR and Dunn haven't been coming to bat until the 2nd inning. If Casey hadn't been double up so often, JR and Dunn would be coming up more often in the first, with more chances to do damage.

Every non-out event increases a team's chance to score runs.

Raisor
05-18-2005, 11:27 PM
I thought that he had but looking at the RC formula again, I see that he hasn't, my bad. .

actually, it is...

this part of the equation shows it.

.26[BB - IBB + HBP]

On a side note, for BF, basehits are counted twice in the OPS formula, once in the OBP part, and again in the SLG part (BB's aren't counted as a part of total bases)

pedro
05-18-2005, 11:27 PM
It's ok. I'll help you along being that you came in late. That IS the point.

Go ahead and use OBP or any other BB-driven stat to make a case for productivity/contribution of a player who is in a top of the order "table setting" role on team.

But ..... OBP from a 5/6 hole hitter does NOT have same value. Their role is to DRIVE IN runs not get to first base via a BB so they can be stranded there when LaRue, Aurilia and pitcher's spot ends the inning.............

Sure a 5/6 hole BB is better than an out but far inferior to a hit, far inferior to the same BB from a top of the order hitter and overall nothing to get all excited about............look at Batting Avg. and Slugging when appraising guys batting in 5/6 holes - their BBs are soft.

Exactly why Dunn should be batting third.

And you're still wrong about OBP, not getting out is ALWAYS the best result, regardless of how it happens.

rdiersin
05-18-2005, 11:33 PM
actually, it is...

this part of the equation shows it.

.26[BB - IBB + HBP]

On a side note, for BF, basehits are counted twice in the OPS formula, once in the OBP part, and again in the SLG part (BB's aren't counted as a part of total bases)

No, I thought that too. But look at the old equation.

(H+BB)TB/(AB+BB)

Now look at the new version. without CS, GIDP, SF, SH, and HBP.

(H+BB)(TB+.26*BB)/(AB+BB).
It actually increase the RC with more walks, i.e. let (H+BB)/(AB+BB) be a constant C.

RC_old=C*TB

RC_newer=C*(TB+.26*BB)

and since BB>0, the newer RC actually increases the value of a walk(not that it really matters since it is very accurate)

Raisor
05-18-2005, 11:35 PM
No, I thought that too. But look at the old equation.

(H+BB)TB/(AB+BB)

Now look at the new version. without CS, GIDP, SF, SH, and HBP.

(H+BB)(TB+.26*BB)/(AB+BB).
It actually increase the RC with more walks, i.e. let (H+BB)/(AB+BB) be a constant C.

RC_old=C*TB

RC_newer=C*(TB+.26*BB)

and since BB>0, the newer RC actually increases the value of a walk(not that it really matters since it is very accurate)

ok, yeah, you're right. Just proves that walks ARE important since the new formula is more accurate then the old.

rdiersin
05-18-2005, 11:39 PM
ok, yeah, you're right. Just proves that walks ARE important since the new formula is more accurate then the old.

But I do think he has made those changes IIRC, in the 2005 Bill James Handbook. I will check that when I get home.

BadFundamentals
05-19-2005, 12:09 AM
Raisor, I understand your chain of events, extending inning, guys get more at bats way of looking at this. But we just don't agree. Yes every time Dunn gets a BB that means one more chance for Freel or Casey or Griffey to bat when order bats around but also one more time for LaRue, Aurilia and pitcher's spot.

It's all guns and butter. If you're relatively better at producing guns then make guns if you're plant is built on a big stick of butter probably better to make butter.

I want relatively fast guys in table-setting spots in batting order getting on base any way they can. I want some rbi guys who make consistent contact and do well at driving in runners.

I don't want Ryan Freel swinging for fences. I don't want 5/6 hole hitters who don't steal bases and have relatively crappy hitters following them trying to set franchise BB records.

TeamBoone
05-19-2005, 12:23 AM
Wow! And I thought Dave Miley is stubborn!

I don't think I've ever seen one person argue with so many for this long about anything... it must be a forum record.

WVPacman
05-19-2005, 12:26 AM
TB,whos arguing this time :laugh:

TeamBoone
05-19-2005, 12:36 AM
BadFundamentals.

Maybe debating is a better word.

Stormy
05-19-2005, 01:28 AM
But ..... OBP from a 5/6 hole hitter does NOT have same value. Their role is to DRIVE IN runs not get to first base via a BB so they can be stranded there when LaRue, Aurilia and pitcher's spot ends the inning.............

Sure a 5/6 hole BB is better than an out but far inferior to a hit, far inferior to the same BB from a top of the order hitter and overall nothing to get all excited about............look at Batting Avg. and Slugging when appraising guys batting in 5/6 holes - their BBs are soft.

The problem is, you're not making a case against Adam Dunn, one which depicts him as an erratic, ineffectual situational hitter and run producer. You are making a case against him batting #5, and against those who are batting behind him. Your comments about the relative value of OBP, and Slugging% for different segments of the batting order, actually indicate that you esteem Dunn as the best overall hitter on the team. Without attempting to do so, you've implicitly established that Dunn should hit #3 in the order for a myriad of reasons: By your own admission his OBP prowess would likely be converted into more Runs Scored batting more times per game, earlier in the lineup, and with competent hitters like Griffey and Casey and Kearns having a chance to cash in on the fact that he's always On Base. You've also implied that his extraordinary EBH power and Slugging% is being undermined by batting him #5, thereby taking the bat out of his hands in many, many RBI situations. Dunn has stepped to the plate (TPA's) with Runners On 66 times this year (he boasts an astounding 1240OPS in those critical ABs!), and has been walked in 22 of those appearances. One out of every three times Dunn steps to the plate with even a single runner on base, he's being walked. An obvious indication that opponents are 'unintentionally intentionally' bypassing or pitching around him, in order to get to the #6-9 spots in the order where the likes of Aurilia, Randa, LaRue, DJ and Co. reside (which is the primary reason a.) Dunn doesn't have far more ABs and RBIs with Runners On, and B.) Dunn has not scored more often for all of his penchant to get On Base.

You have indirectly made a perfect case for batting our most productive hitter (Dunn) in the #3 spot, because it will maximize the chances of his Walks and OBP being translated into more Runs, and because it will likely create many more RBI chances for him in Runners On situations where pitchers must face other legitimate RBI threats if they bypass Dunn in order to get to a Griffey, Casey and Kearns, rather than to an Aurilia/DJ and LaRue.

Today, we saw Adam Dunn leadoff a key inning with a Triple, only to witness a shallow Randa flyout, a DJ walk and a LaRue DP, strand that leadoff Triple. Your alleged micro-perspective of the game holds that against Dunn as a situation where he failed to score despite getting On Base, whereas the actual in-game fact was that he was stranded because of the failings of those batting behind him in the order (a weakness of others you continually hold against Dunn). Your overall approach and methodology would be considered flawed, if you were applying it in good faith. As it stands, the selective usage of selective, arbitrary, changing criteria utilized to denegrate Dunn's game, smacks of disingenuity instead.

Ron Madden
05-19-2005, 04:13 AM
Other than a double play, SF.or Sac. bunt an out is an out.
It just stands to reason any way of reaching base to extend an inning
or drive in runs is "A Good Thing". ;)

SteelSD
05-19-2005, 06:17 AM
As for RBIs, see Homeruns. 19 of his 23 RBIs have come from homeruns. (6 solos, 2 two run homeruns, 3 three run homeruns) I'd say that is feast or famine when it comes to driving runners in. Is that good? Is that bad? I'd rather have a little more night in night out productivity from 3/4/5 hole hitters than just hope hope hoping for another homerun every time runners are on base.

As for Runs, again 11 of his 25 are from homeruns. So that leaves 14 runs that he scored from a combination of 21 hits (32 - 11 homeruns) and 33 walks. 54 times he reached base but only scored 14 times.

Who cares? Seriously, you're now grumpy that Dunn hits balls further than anyone else on the team and that he's capable of generating offense without the help of players hitting behind him???

That's a bad place to be considering that you also denigrate Dunn's game because of the players hitting behind him.


Lets look at a guy at top of order for Reds where my contention is that OBP is more likely to result in runs. Freel has reached base 48 times (30 hits + 18 BBs) and of those 48, he came around to score 21 times.

When Dunn gets on base he a 26% chance of scoring.
When Freel gets on base he has a 44% chance of scoring.

You tell me which Base on Balls has more value to team? Freel's? or Dunn's? You tell me which BB is softer?

And here's what I'm talking about. The times Dunn has scored when on base via a non-HR event has nothing- NOTHING- to do with Adam Dunn's performance but has everything to do with the performance of hitters behind him in the order.

There is no such thing as a "soft" non-Out event because every non-Out event has a positive cascade effect on the offense during a ballgame. Teams that put more Runners on base- regardless of how they do it- have a better chance of scoring more Runs than teams that don't. That is simple fact and it is beyond contestation. It is true over a season, a game, and an Inning. The moment you attempt to position any non-Out event as being "soft" is the moment at which your argument falls flat on it's face.

Early in the season, Dunn had Rich Aurilia (who you loved) hitting behind him. Now he has Joe Randa (who you love) and Austin Kearns (who you think is better than Dunn) hitting behind him. Seems to me that you've loved everyone who's hit behind Dunn all season but now feel that it's appropriate to bash Dunn for the past and current failures of players you really really like.

That doesn't make sense. Again...that doesn't make sense.

Furthermore, there's no negative value to Dunn not swinging at Balls regardless of where he is in the lineup- particularly since it's not Dunn who's controlling the makeup of that lineup or the placement of hitters within it.

But again, you shouldn't have a single issue with Dunn's Walk rate even if there were such a thing as "soft" Walks because the players who've hit (and are currently hitting) behind him are players you feel are good offensive players.

You've again positioned a fallacy-based argument of convenience instead of actual fact. Even worse, you've positioned an argument that stands in direct opposition to your opinions about the players truly responsible for whether or non Dunn scores a Run on a non-HR event.

And finally, it would be nice to see you actually respond to counter-points. Instead, we're seeing you do nothing but sidestep (when not blatantly ignoring posts) that which doesn't box with your opinions.

For example, Rosie asked you a very direct question and you sidestepped into what you thought was denigration of Dunn's game. Ironically, all you ended up saying was:

"Dunn's RBI total is generated by his power."

...and...

"Dunn leads the team in Runs Scored because of his power and ability to recognize balls and strikes."

Not a thing wrong with any of that. But it sure would have been nice to see you respond honestly to Rosie's question rather than attempt to spin two positives into negatives. In reality, the only way you'd be happier with Dunn is if he traded some of his Home Runs with Singles. And that just makes no sense whatsoever.

creek14
05-19-2005, 06:46 AM
So back to the whole "Dunn is not having fun" topic...

I'm not either.