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View Full Version : I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.



Willy
06-17-2005, 05:11 PM
I know this post is NOT going to be very popular, but it's the truth.

Let's look at the big picture.

1) The Reds have four outfielders that are everyday players.

2) Of those four outfielder, Dunn will bring the most in any trade and the reds are desperate for some young talent.

3) Dunn will make close to $9 Million dollars next season, that money could go along way next year to fix some of the Reds many problems.

4) There are currently many Big Market teams still in the race, which I believe drive up the demand for Dunn, a nice bidding war may break out.

5) The longer we hold on to Dunn the Less value I believe he will have. Right nw a team would retain his rights for a couple of more years, and he is also at a reasonable salary, the higher that goes means fewer and fewer and teams will be able to swing a trade for him.


I would to love to hold on to Dunn, but I just don't see it happening, It's looking more and more lie he is going to jump ship the fiest chance he gets.

The time is now. :(

Red Leader
06-17-2005, 05:19 PM
I'll say it now. If we trade Dunn BEFORE we trade Sean Casey, I'm done as a Reds fan.

KronoRed
06-17-2005, 05:21 PM
RL I'd agree if I thought Casey had any trade value, I don't think he does..not for what he's making and about to make next year..we're stuck with him.

pedro
06-17-2005, 05:21 PM
Wily Mo Pena plays outfield?

Joseph
06-17-2005, 05:27 PM
I'm with RL on this one. If Dunn goes before Casey I'll be one upset boy.

CTA513
06-17-2005, 05:28 PM
Trade him for a couple of prospects.

:)

DoogMinAmo
06-17-2005, 05:33 PM
RL I'd agree if I thought Casey had any trade value, I don't think he does..not for what he's making and about to make next year..we're stuck with him.

Atleast stuck with him til thetrading deadline next year, then he is either bubye or gone.

OnBaseMachine
06-17-2005, 05:37 PM
I'll say it now. If we trade Dunn BEFORE we trade Sean Casey, I'm done as a Reds fan.

Ditto.

MartyFan
06-17-2005, 06:08 PM
I think all of you are full of hot air...trading Dunn is not as bad as trading Frank Robinson or letting Joe Morgan go or Tony Perez.

If the Reds trade him away I will be disapointed but saying you're "DUNN" being a Reds fan? is a bit much.

We need a FO to drag it's head out of it's hind area, true. But lets face it...in the modern economy of baseball there are three class of team in MLB.

1) PRIME TIME ( NY, LA, ATL, STL, CHICAGO)

2) HUSTLERS (HOU, SEA, PHI, FL, AZ, SF)

3) EVERYBODY ELSE

and we are everybody else...there will be a few teams from this category that make a splash every once in a while and it will require a veery savy GM to stay ahead of the curve and one who knows how to draft...by all evidence if this is the future of MLB...WALK NOW...IT WILL NOT BE ANY BETTER WITH OR WITHOUT DUNN.

TeamBoone
06-17-2005, 07:23 PM
I think all of you are full of hot air...trading Dunn is not as bad as trading Frank Robinson or letting Joe Morgan go or Tony Perez.

If the Reds trade him away I will be disapointed but saying you're "DUNN" being a Reds fan? is a bit much.

But in this day and age of NO BIG RED MACHINE (why does everyone live in the past?), it IS a big deal.

The Reds are already done this year, so why trade Adam Dunn?

If this happens, I will continue to be a Reds fan, but will seriously continue to hate the management (mis-management) of this team, and it will be a long time before I attend another game. I know that won't make or break the Reds' bank, but hopefully there will be other more-than-casual fans that feel the same way.

Redsfaithful
06-17-2005, 07:24 PM
Does anyone trust Dan O'Brien to get a solid return for Adam Dunn?

That should really start and finish conversations on this topic.

BRM
06-17-2005, 07:30 PM
Does anyone trust Dan O'Brien to get a solid return for Adam Dunn?

That should really start and finish conversations on this topic.

I certainly don't. No way do I want DanO to even attempt to trade Dunn. He'd get fleeced in a big way.

Willy
06-17-2005, 07:46 PM
I'm not saying that DO will trade him or when he does people will be happy about it. I also think that no matter who DO gets in return for Dunn, some people on here will feel the Reds were robbed. Dunn has alost reached god-like status on this board(that's another topic).

I guess the point of my post is, unless we are going to sign Dunn to a long term contract(not going to happen) this summer is the best time to trade dunn.

GridironGrace
06-17-2005, 08:29 PM
Trading Adam Dunn is ....well for lack of a better word.. STUPID!!!!!!!!!!!

Im really tired of the "Trade Dunn" Posts.

The only way trading him is worth our while....for future purpose's... is IF.... and its a big IF.. We get someone's ACE STARTING PITCHER, whom is around 26-29 years old.

Now...tell me one team that will make that deal, and i'll so you the one and only trade possiblity where we get what we deserve for Dunn. Otherwise, Please, QUIT trying to trade the FUTURE of our team, and any hopes we have at being in the playoffs in the next 4 seasons "LOL".

SunDeck
06-17-2005, 08:31 PM
I like both of them (Casey and Dunn), but if OB packaged them up a the end of the month and was able to bring in a real pitcher, I swear I'd skip to work backwards and kiss the butt of every dog I met on the way.

That's a promise I don't fear making one bit.

redsrule2500
06-17-2005, 08:49 PM
If Casey goes before Dunn I will be pissed.

How can anyone trade Sean Casey? Stupidest Idea Ever IMO. Dunn can't even keep a good batting average.


Edit: And everyone saying you would be done as Reds fans if they trade Dunn - you aren't real fans then. :thumbdown

GridironGrace
06-17-2005, 08:51 PM
Casey is getting up in age and making to much money. 5 years from now how good is casey and how good is Dunn???

Think about it lol

westofyou
06-17-2005, 08:56 PM
How can anyone trade Sean Casey?

I'll give you eight and a half million reasons.

TeamBoone
06-17-2005, 08:57 PM
Edit: And everyone saying you would be done as Reds fans if they trade Dunn - you aren't real fans then. :thumbdown

I believe only one person said that. And I'm sure he's just... angry.

redsandrails
06-17-2005, 08:57 PM
If we could pry decent pitching that has has success in the majors I'd do it. I'm talking a Halladay, Webb, Buerhle, Peavy, Beckett, Oswalt, etc. Sadly though, the "big boys" who want Dunn and can afford Dunn lack these kinda guys. LA has some solid pitching prospects but the other "big boys" don't.

I think the answer is a three team trade. Maybe the Dodgers would get Dunn, send a slew of prospects and maybe Werth to Toronto, and the Reds would get Halladay. Something like that.

KronoRed
06-17-2005, 09:20 PM
If Casey goes before Dunn I will be pissed.

How can anyone trade Sean Casey? Stupidest Idea Ever IMO. Dunn can't even keep a good batting average.

Thus proving bat avg is a pretty bad stat to judge players on.

Redsfaithful
06-17-2005, 09:26 PM
Edit: And everyone saying you would be done as Reds fans if they trade Dunn - you aren't real fans then. :thumbdown

I wouldn't be done - I'll never be done - but my interest will certainly wane. I will buy less tickets, and less merchandise. My website pretty much demands that I keep up with what's going on, but I've already started to emotionally distance myself from the team. Trading Dunn would only make me care less.

We've entered the place where you have to stop expecting playoff runs and consistent success. Bill James said something about being a fan in Kansas City that resonates with me right now - something about how it's different being a fan of a team like the Royals. You look at the big picture less, and you have to try to enjoy the small moments, the individual accomplishments, the wins you see in person. That's heavily paraphrased I'm sure, but that was the gist of it.

We're no different from Royals fans until we get a different GM. And we probably won't get a GM capable of turning everything around until we're rid of John Allen and Carl Lindner.

So it's probably going to be awhile before things are good again.

I still care, and I'm still a fan, but like I said trading Dunn would just distance me even further.

flyer85
06-17-2005, 09:39 PM
3) Dunn will make close to $9 Million dollars next season, that money could go along way next year to fix some of the Reds many problems.
that extra cash sure helped this year. Go get 'em DanO

Raisor
06-17-2005, 09:40 PM
that extra cash sure helped this year. Go get 'em DanO

I foresee LIMA TIME in a Reds uni next year.

CTA513
06-17-2005, 10:01 PM
I foresee LIMA TIME in a Reds uni next year.

Next year? its going to be this year after the Reds trade Dunn for him.


:devil:

captainmorgan07
06-17-2005, 10:07 PM
9 million sounds better if we put it toward a pitcher this time though get somebody they've scouted looked into and doesn't give up alot of homers

forfreelin04
06-17-2005, 10:11 PM
Thus proving bat avg is a pretty bad stat to judge players on.

yeah all those players getting hits alot are pooey give me some long homruns and some walks HECK YAH!!! Oh yeah Ted Williams he was overrated.

Player TEAM POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
1. D Lee
CHC 1B 64 239 51 92 24 0 18 56 170 35 46 9 1 .466 .711 .385
2. B Roberts
BAL 2B 58 230 41 83 15 5 11 36 141 30 34 13 4 .439 .613 .361
3. J Damon
BOS OF 61 259 48 89 18 4 2 37 121 23 26 7 1 .393 .467 .344
4. M Cabrera
FLA OF 62 236 43 80 17 1 11 43 132 20 44 0 0 .389 .559 .339
5. R Mackowiak
PIT OF 56 176 30 59 10 1 6 34 89 22 36 4 3 .412 .506 .335
6. A Pujols
STL 1B 65 253 50 84 17 0 16 52 149 31 27 4 0 .414 .589 .332
7. C Barmes
COL SS 54 225 40 74 16 1 8 34 116 10 23 4 4 .371 .516 .329
8. B Abreu
PHI OF 67 244 49 80 13 0 16 48 141 48 50 17 3 .443 .578 .328
9. M Tejada
BAL SS 65 261 47 85 22 3 18 54 167 19 34 1 1 .373 .640 .326
10. C Delgado
FLA 1B 63 228 38 74 20 0 14 49 136 30 54 0 0 .418 .596 .325
10. N Johnson
WSH 1B 65 228 38 74 17 2 8 39 119 40 46 3 6 .442 .522 .325

Look at these guys OVERRATED.

Trade Casey instead of Dunn what? You've sat too many days indian style smoking the peace pipe with Bill James. Dunn has more trade value and he's lazy. He doesn't want to be here. He doesn't care if he K's more than any other person in baseball history. It's all gravy to Adam. Sean Casey hits over .300 and is what the Reds don't have much of: contact hitting. Plus, he's one of the few guys I'm actually proud of the Reds having on their team. He's great in the community, gives 100% on the field, and he's a good role model not just for young players coming up through the system but for any young person he meets. Not to mention obvious reasons, we cannot not sign Dunn next year with Griff and Milton still on the payroll.

I know all ya Dunn lovers enjoy going out at night and playing "where's my sac fly" in the backseat in the parking lot at BeerBellies but come on!

flyer85
06-17-2005, 10:13 PM
9 million sounds better if we put it toward a pitcher this time though get somebody they've scouted looked into and doesn't give up alot of homersdon't even have to scout 'em to determine that. You don't ubderstand, DanO doesn't need the stats. He is endowed with the ability to see things that others can't.

westofyou
06-17-2005, 10:15 PM
Trade Casey instead of Dunn what? You've sat too many days indian style smoking the peace pipe with Bill James.
That's a doozy.

Ya conjour that gem up yourself? Or did you get it from Mad Magazines take on Moneyball?

flyer85
06-17-2005, 10:17 PM
yeah all those players getting hits alot are pooey give me some long homruns and some walks HECK YAH!!! Oh yeah Ted Williams he was overrated.

Player TEAM POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
1. D Lee
CHC 1B 64 239 51 92 24 0 18 56 170 35 46 9 1 .466 .711 .385
2. B Roberts
BAL 2B 58 230 41 83 15 5 11 36 141 30 34 13 4 .439 .613 .361
3. J Damon
BOS OF 61 259 48 89 18 4 2 37 121 23 26 7 1 .393 .467 .344
4. M Cabrera
FLA OF 62 236 43 80 17 1 11 43 132 20 44 0 0 .389 .559 .339
5. R Mackowiak
PIT OF 56 176 30 59 10 1 6 34 89 22 36 4 3 .412 .506 .335
6. A Pujols
STL 1B 65 253 50 84 17 0 16 52 149 31 27 4 0 .414 .589 .332
7. C Barmes
COL SS 54 225 40 74 16 1 8 34 116 10 23 4 4 .371 .516 .329
8. B Abreu
PHI OF 67 244 49 80 13 0 16 48 141 48 50 17 3 .443 .578 .328
9. M Tejada
BAL SS 65 261 47 85 22 3 18 54 167 19 34 1 1 .373 .640 .326
10. C Delgado
FLA 1B 63 228 38 74 20 0 14 49 136 30 54 0 0 .418 .596 .325
10. N Johnson
WSH 1B 65 228 38 74 17 2 8 39 119 40 46 3 6 .442 .522 .325

Look at these guys OVERRATED.

Trade Casey instead of Dunn what? You've sat too many days indian style smoking the peace pipe with Bill James. Dunn has more trade value and he's lazy. He doesn't want to be here. He doesn't care if he K's more than any other person in baseball history. It's all gravy to Adam. Sean Casey hits over .300 and is what the Reds don't have much of: contact hitting. Plus, he's one of the few guys I'm actually proud of the Reds having on their team. He's great in the community, gives 100% on the field, and he's a good role model not just for young players coming up through the system but for any young person he meets. Not to mention obvious reasons, we cannot not sign Dunn next year with Griff and Milton still on the payroll.

I know all ya Dunn lovers enjoy going out at night and playing "where's my sac fly" in the backseat in the parking lot at BeerBellies but come on!DanO have you been hanging out in the locker room again?

Raisor
06-17-2005, 10:17 PM
That's a doozy.

Ya conjour that gem up yourself? Or did you get it from Mad Magazines take on Moneyball?

at least it was a bit more original then calling us "statheads" or "statnerds" or the like.

I don't mind being made fun of, just use some originality.

OnBaseMachine
06-17-2005, 10:19 PM
Dunn has more trade value and he's lazy

You have proof to back up that accusation?


He doesn't care if he K's more than any other person in baseball history.

I don't either. .400+ OBP .550+ SLG. He can strikeout all he wants.


Sean Casey hits over .300 and is what the Reds don't have much of: contact hitting.

He also grounds into 37 billion gazillion double plays and whines when his friends are let go. Oh and we have already gone over the contact issue. The Giants and A's say hi.

captainmorgan07
06-17-2005, 10:19 PM
oh yea i forgot dano is miss cleo's brother lol he knows all see's all and gets it dead wrong

Willy
06-17-2005, 10:45 PM
Don't get me wrong I'm NOT a Dan fan, BUT I do believe that he was painted into a corner with the Milton signing. I am willing to bet that Carl said we are raising the budget and we will spend a lot of money on a starting pitcher. That is why we heard all those rumors abot the reds interest in Clement, Prez. Those guys turned down that money, they did NOT want to play in Cincy. Carl then said spend the money, bring in someone with a name. Milton was all that was left. Dan had to spend that money, he went after better pitchers, they said no. They knew there were better places to win.

What are you going to do? Your boss tells you to spend money, you can't buy anything you like, but your boss insist you come home with something. That is how you get Milton.

That is what I tink happened, and that is why I'm not so quick to blame Dan.

Back to my original point. All I'm saying is if we can't keep Dunn long term, now is the time to move him.

CincyReds2003
06-17-2005, 11:10 PM
Don't get me wrong I'm NOT a Dan fan, BUT I do believe that he was painted into a corner with the Milton signing. I am willing to bet that Carl said we are raising the budget and we will spend a lot of money on a starting pitcher. That is why we heard all those rumors abot the reds interest in Clement, Prez. Those guys turned down that money, they did NOT want to play in Cincy. Carl then said spend the money, bring in someone with a name. Milton was all that was left. Dan had to spend that money, he went after better pitchers, they said no. They knew there were better places to win.

What are you going to do? Your boss tells you to spend money, you can't buy anything you like, but your boss insist you come home with something. That is how you get Milton.

That is what I tink happened, and that is why I'm not so quick to blame Dan.

Back to my original point. All I'm saying is if we can't keep Dunn long term, now is the time to move him.


Better yet....Why don't they trade everybody? This organization is a joke and the results will be the same as long as these clueless individuals are running this team...It's not going to solve anything when you're trading your studs, for young prospects when the coaching staff this team has, lacks the skills to develop kids. As long as Carl Lindner, the limiteds, John Allen, and the rest of the yes men are running this team, you can forget about ever being able to compete with the big dogs. I'm a Reds fan from the Big Red Machine Days, but the last 5 years have been a complete joke, and its no surprise that they have replaced the L.A. Clippers, as the laughing stock of professional sports. Excuse me for venting..but Reds fans, and the Hamilton County residents(who paid for the new stadium) do not deserve this.

Willy
06-17-2005, 11:34 PM
Wow this thead did not go where I wanted. All wanted to discuss was if we can't sign Dunn long term there isn't a better time to move him. Weather we like it or not losing good players is apart of the game, the secret is finding the right time to move them to get the most for your money. I believe that is ONE of the reasons the A's have been so sucessful over the last decade. I don't care if peoplebelieve it is a huge mistake or not. The fact of the matter is Dunn is probably not going to retire a Reds. Sorry to tell you guys that. But do you want to get draft picks or do you want to movehim at the perfect time?

Mods you can close this thread or let it go. I don't care.

redsfan30
06-17-2005, 11:37 PM
Does anyone trust Dan O'Brien to get a solid return for Adam Dunn?

That should really start and finish conversations on this topic.
I may be in the minority here, but I for one do trust him to get a good return on Dunn if he so happens to send him packing.

We've heard from other scouts that the Reds are asking alot for Austin Kearns and aren't budging. Why would Adam Dunn be any different?

seligstinks
06-18-2005, 12:25 AM
I say keep Dunn- but it's time for John Allen, Dan O' Brien, and Mike Miley to go instead. The Reds aren't as "small" a market as greedy ownership makes them out to be, with potentially half of Ohio/West Virginia/Indiana and 2/3 of Kentucky as fans, and probably can afford to keep Dunn. The Reds ought to be making more money than they claim to be, however ownership has seemed only interested in short-term gain for themselves. Also, ownership has hired people who know practically nothing about baseball.

kyred14
06-18-2005, 01:18 AM
Dunn has more trade value and he's lazy. He doesn't want to be here. He doesn't care if he K's more than any other person in baseball history. It's all gravy to Adam.

how do you know this? why don't you bring some facts to the table before you run your mouth about stuff you dont know

Smallball
06-18-2005, 01:49 AM
how do you know this? why don't you bring some facts to the table before you run your mouth about stuff you dont know

He probably didn't offer up evidence because it's common knowledge to anyone who follows the team. But if you'd like proof, here's some from Adam himself:

Dunn on setting the strikeout record...
"I don't care," he said. "I really don't. If I was scuffling like I was last year, I'd be ticked."
- Quoted by John Fay, Cincinnati Enquirer, October 1 2004

Dunn on wanting to get out of Cincinnati and into an Astros uniform...
"That's something I do think about, growing up as an Astros fan and keeping my home here during the offseason," he said. "It's hard not to think about it. I have no say in that right now, so I just have to go out and do my job."
- Quoted by Brian McTaggart, Houston Chronicle, June 1 2005

Phhhl
06-18-2005, 01:51 AM
ALL pitching is a crap shoot, even when you are talking about the Scott Kazmirs and Matt Cains of the world. Power like Dunn's doesn't take a season off, not to mention his plate discipline. No, Adam is not Robby or Doggie or anyone else in the history of this franchise. He has his own skill set, and it happens to make him one of the most devastating young offensive players in all of baseball today. The kid is going to breeze past 500 homers, and who knows from there. I'm not suggesting the Reds should not deal him, but the men who run this franchise are not qualified to wield the power they possess. They are completely blind to it, and I think people are correct to assume that we would get fleeced if these keystone cops ever approached the trading block seeking to get an equitable return for Adam Dunn. A-ball pitching is not sufficient. Major league starting pitching of a very rare kind plus the best 1 or 2 arms in an organization should be where the talks begin. Then, as DanO is prone to say, we move forward and negotiate for more or let the dog lay.

I know Adam is not happy and probably wants to move. But, he hasn't put in his time and has no say at this point. It is critical that the Reds fire this idiot gm before anything at all is "done" with Dunn. He is the type of commodity that only comes along once every 20 years or so, and how that commodity is handled could dictate the performance of the Reds over the next decade. Hiring the idiot is an absolutely horrific position the ownership has put itself in, but it is not too late to correct it.

But, the notion of giving up on the Reds is so absurd to me that I would never even joke about it. I suspect that anyone who is threatening to abandon the club based on this dark time in our history is simply frustrated. And, I certainly understand that.

TeamBoone
06-18-2005, 02:32 AM
That is a great post, Santo.

What I don't understand is people keep saying he doesn't want to be here, and maybe he really doesn't, but who the heck can blame him? Who has made him feel that way? IMHO, it seems like DM (or DOB, or both) is doing everything feasible to make Adam Dunn hate being with the Reds.

If only DM could manage a baseball team as successfully as he alienates Adam Dunn, the Reds might be at .500 right now, despite poor pitching.

WVRedsFan
06-18-2005, 02:44 AM
Santo Alcala writes:
I know Adam is not happy and probably wants to move. But, he hasn't put in his time and has no say at this point. It is critical that the Reds fire this idiot gm before anything at all is "done" with Dunn. He is the type of commodity that only comes along once every 20 years or so, and how that commodity is handled could dictate the performance of the Reds over the next decade. Hiring the idiot is an absolutely horrific position the ownership has put itself in, but it is not too late to correct it.

But, the notion of giving up on the Reds is so absurd to me that I would never even joke about it. I suspect that anyone who is threatening to abandon the club based on this dark time in our history is simply frustrated. And, I certainly understand that.

Certainly agree. We must put the pressure on to see that the two Idiot Brothers move on to something they are capable of handling--not a major league club.

It's a dark time in Reds history. I can't ever remember four consecutive hapless seasons in my life time (since 1961). And yet, we wait while DanO scratches his head, Miley makes stupid statements and Milton and Ortiz stink up the joint (and Dunn and Kearns sit or go to AAA while players like Luis Lopez and Jason Romano get the accolades).

Smallball
06-18-2005, 03:15 AM
Dunn and Kearns sit or go to AAA while players like Luis Lopez and Jason Romano get the accolades.

Did I miss something? Did someone throw a ticker tape parade for Lopez and Romano?

kyred14
06-18-2005, 03:31 AM
He probably didn't offer up evidence because it's common knowledge to anyone who follows the team. But if you'd like proof, here's some from Adam himself:

Dunn on setting the strikeout record...
"I don't care," he said. "I really don't. If I was scuffling like I was last year, I'd be ticked."
- Quoted by John Fay, Cincinnati Enquirer, October 1 2004

Dunn on wanting to get out of Cincinnati and into an Astros uniform...
"That's something I do think about, growing up as an Astros fan and keeping my home here during the offseason," he said. "It's hard not to think about it. I have no say in that right now, so I just have to go out and do my job."
- Quoted by Brian McTaggart, Houston Chronicle, June 1 2005

geez, just b/c he doesn't care about the strikeout record, that doesn't mean he doesn't care about his performance. he probably realizes that a strikeout is just the same as any other out. i realize dunn probably wants out,(i didn't mean to put in my quote) but can you blame him. with the people running this ship, wouldn't you want out? i don't think there is anyone that wants out incompetant GM handling the trading of a rare talent like dunn. in fact i don't want ANYONE trading him.

Cedric
06-18-2005, 03:34 AM
So just being hypothetical. Dunn throws away everything this organization had done for him in the past because he hates the new gm and new manager? I think he'll be fine when they leave, he has loyalties to some things here. Or he better.

kyred14
06-18-2005, 03:38 AM
Did I miss something? Did someone throw a ticker tape parade for Lopez and Romano?

june 3, 2005: romano starts over dunn in coors. not exactly smart managing

and with luis lopez, under no circumstanes should his name be written on the first nine of a lineup card.

kyred14
06-18-2005, 03:42 AM
So just being hypothetical. Dunn throws away everything this organization had done for him in the past because he hates the new gm and new manager? I think he'll be fine when they leave, he has loyalties to some things here. Or he better.

that should be step one of a process. in fact, firing those two should be the something the organization takes care of very soon. (if it doesn't go down monday, it may never. :help: )

Smallball
06-18-2005, 05:42 AM
geez, just b/c he doesn't care about the strikeout record, that doesn't mean he doesn't care about his performance. he probably realizes that a strikeout is just the same as any other out.

No one ever said (in this thread) that Dunn doesn't care about his performance. We were talking specifically about the strikeouts. And a strikeout is not like any other out. Teams that win are those that take advantage of the very few mistakes their opponents make in each game. By putting the ball into play, you provide mistake opportunities for the other team. A strikeout is an automatic out. A ball put into play is never an automatic out (Dunn's outfield play is a good example of that). Additionally, there's no such a thing as a sacrifice strikeout, but fly outs and ground outs advance baserunners and drive in runs every day.

Smallball
06-18-2005, 05:48 AM
june 3, 2005: romano starts over dunn in coors. not exactly smart managing

and with luis lopez, under no circumstanes should his name be written on the first nine of a lineup card.

These may be valid points. But still, where are the accolades you mentioned? Most of what I've read and heard about the use of Romano and Lopez has been critical. Like I said, did someone throw these guys a party while I wasn't looking?

forfreelin04
06-18-2005, 08:12 AM
Smallball,

Thanks for backing me up even though I was a little outlandish in my post. This year have been nothing but frustration ever since the first series of the year. It just bothers me that people cannot recognize the obvious. The obvious is actually watching the game instead of keeping track of the game on a computer with statistics. I mean "stat gentlemen" do not even need to watch the game anymore. They have all the stats right there. In the midst of this, they lose track of what's more important. The player's drive to win. I'm not saying Adam Dunn doesn't want to win. But I am saying he is the wrong person to have in this clubhouse. He cannot help a BAD ballclub. His attitude REEKS of apathy. That is his personality. Just now as he started to chipe up about not getting playing time against left handed SP. (See Hal's article in the paper today to see.) But he doesn't say anything in Colorado because "I sucked then." Does that sound like the words of a man hell bent on putting this team on his back? He could put this team on his back. He has enough talent and everyone has a voice to motivate and push. Heck, do those words even sound like the words of a "man." IMO He sounds like a spoiled child who would rather be fishing in some pond with a mouthful of chaw and a blue tick hound than playing baseball in Cincinnati. Maybe SI could do an article on that? Oh wait, they already did.

Strikes Out Looking
06-18-2005, 08:28 AM
I'm not a big Adam Dunn Fan, however, I am also leery of the FO just packing him (or any of the other Reds consistently named in trade rumors) because I'm not sure the FO has any type of plan.

This seasons plan was that Ortiz and Milton would shore up the SP, Weber, Mercker and Weathers would shore up the RP and the offense would then be able to keep the Reds in games, thus making them contenders. So far, none of this has happened. The veteran SP's stink (however, I find it hard to blame Paul Wilson after finding out what he was trying to do with a damaged arm), the RP has been inconsistent to say the least, and the offense scores a ton of runs on some days, on some days it looks like the Rookie league team v. MLB allstars.

Thus, I believe the question is, not only what can the FO get for Dunn (or anyone else), but why are they doing it? How does it fit in the overall plan? Is the plan to have Freel and Lopez at the top of the order for a number of years? Is the plan to keep 3 of the 4 outfielders and hope 2 of them (Kearns, Dunn or Pena) become consistent hitting and defensive OF's (thus far, they all seem to have taken a step backward this year--and those of you who love Dunn, have to accept the fact that even though he has a lot of homers, he has also not improved on his strikeouts nor his batting average, which do count for something). Is the plan to keep Casey until Votto comes around or make Dunn or Griffey the 1B? Is the plan to keep Griffey (I for one find him to be the most consistent player they have lately and has anyone noticed he hasn't made any controversial comments during all of this?)

What's the plan for the pitching? Will Coffey become closer at some point? Who are the SP going to be? What are they going to do with Milton? (Does anyone know if he is cut, do the Reds have to pay him for all the years of his contract, or is it voided if someone else picks him up for next year? I know in football they are voided, but I'm confused about how it works for MLB. If they are only on the hook for this year, I'd cut bait now. He is really terrible--OK, he'll probably pitch a gem tonight to make me look like an idiot).

Sorry about this long post. But I, like all of you, am very frustrated. I think the problem is deep and starts with the FO (and ownership). My conclusion is, it may be time to trade Dunn, but I'm concerned about those who are doing the trading.

Strikes Out Looking
06-18-2005, 08:31 AM
By the way, I'd like to be able to quit being a Reds Fan. Since it has been in my blood since my early childhood and I still remember balling in tears after the Reds lost the '70 series (I was 6), it just isn't possible. I stuck with 'em during Marge, I stuck with 'em during the Rose scandal, I fear I'm with 'em win or as is the case most likely, lose.

WVRedsFan
06-18-2005, 09:39 AM
Did I miss something? Did someone throw a ticker tape parade for Lopez and Romano?

Apparently. Those AAA guys barely get to Cincinnati before they've replaced one of the regulars in the lineup.

ochre
06-18-2005, 10:08 AM
Teams that win are those that take advantage of the very few mistakes their opponents make in each game. By putting the ball into play, you provide mistake opportunities for the other team. A strikeout is an automatic out. A ball put into play is never an automatic out (Dunn's outfield play is a good example of that). Additionally, there's no such a thing as a sacrifice strikeout, but fly outs and ground outs advance baserunners and drive in runs every day.

2002 Yankees: 1171 SO (leads the AL; 3rd most in the Majors), 897 R (most in the majors), Lost to Anaheim in their ALDS

2004 Red Sox: 1189 SO (leads the AL; 3rd most in the Majors), 949 R (most in the majors), World Series champions.

Strikeouts are just another out for the offense. In fact the approach(es) that lead hitters to more strikeouts probably increase the peripheral statistics that allow for more runs to be scored overall.

TeamBoone
06-18-2005, 12:22 PM
So just being hypothetical. Dunn throws away everything this organization had done for him in the past because he hates the new gm and new manager? I think he'll be fine when they leave, he has loyalties to some things here. Or he better.

I'm certain he has some loyalties. How can he not?

I think it could all be turned around (for alot of players) if they leave too, but when the heck is that going to happen? Probably not until it's too late for all of us.

TeamBoone
06-18-2005, 12:26 PM
Per forfreelin04, "but he doesn't say anything in Colorado because "I sucked then."

Your reference is out of context by presenting it as a stand-alone comment... IIRC, the full quote was obviously Adam Dunn being sarcastic.

deltachi8
06-18-2005, 12:42 PM
I agree with Redleader to a point, I may not stop being a Redsfan, but I'm going to start following the Florida/Las Vegas Marlins even more than I am right now.

I think I have reached rock bottom as a Reds fan right now. I am embarrassed by this team and dont even want to wear my Reds cap next week in Cleveland.

Terry
06-18-2005, 02:05 PM
Done as a Reds fan? LOL ... the Reds have made far worse mistakes in my lifetime than trading Adam Dunn would be. And I've somehow managed to remain a fan for all of my 41 years. It'll take a lot more than trading Dunn to get me off the bandwagon at this point.

RosieRed
06-18-2005, 02:06 PM
Smallball,

Thanks for backing me up even though I was a little outlandish in my post. This year have been nothing but frustration ever since the first series of the year. It just bothers me that people cannot recognize the obvious. The obvious is actually watching the game instead of keeping track of the game on a computer with statistics. I mean "stat gentlemen" do not even need to watch the game anymore. They have all the stats right there. In the midst of this, they lose track of what's more important. The player's drive to win. I'm not saying Adam Dunn doesn't want to win. But I am saying he is the wrong person to have in this clubhouse. He cannot help a BAD ballclub. His attitude REEKS of apathy. That is his personality. Just now as he started to chipe up about not getting playing time against left handed SP. (See Hal's article in the paper today to see.) But he doesn't say anything in Colorado because "I sucked then." Does that sound like the words of a man hell bent on putting this team on his back? He could put this team on his back. He has enough talent and everyone has a voice to motivate and push. Heck, do those words even sound like the words of a "man." IMO He sounds like a spoiled child who would rather be fishing in some pond with a mouthful of chaw and a blue tick hound than playing baseball in Cincinnati. Maybe SI could do an article on that? Oh wait, they already did.

Just curious ... how do you know what his personality is? Do you know him personally? Do you really think that whatever quotes of his make it into print actually represent his whole personality? Why should we expect him to be fine with this team, and happy-go-lucky about everything, when it's clear to us that something stinks?

As for his attitude reeking of apathy: If he truly were apathetic right now, he wouldn't care if he were in the lineup or not. But since he was complaining about being benched, that to me says he's not apathetic. He wants to be out there playing ... but Miley apparently has some other plan.

I don't see where he sounds like a spoiled child. If I were Adam Dunn and I was being benched so that Romano and Kelly could start, I'd be pretty mad too. Obviously Dunn is a better player than both of them; what sense does it make to put less than your best players on the field?

It's kind of hard to carry the team on your shoulders when your manager doesn't play you every day.

riddelde
06-18-2005, 02:11 PM
2002 Yankees: 1171 SO (leads the AL; 3rd most in the Majors), 897 R (most in the majors), Lost to Anaheim in their ALDS

2004 Red Sox: 1189 SO (leads the AL; 3rd most in the Majors), 949 R (most in the majors), World Series champions.

Strikeouts are just another out for the offense. In fact the approach(es) that lead hitters to more strikeouts probably increase the peripheral statistics that allow for more runs to be scored overall.




I've seen this comparison used several times on this message board, but I think these statistics are misleading. You are looking at those statistics in a vacuum. While the Yankees and Red Sox no doubt relied on their offense to be successful, don't you think the fact that they also had great pitching was a larger factor in the success of their teams?

The Red Sox and Yankees featured guys like Pedro, Schilling, Clemens, Mariano Rivera, Foulke, and Mussina. They won championships because of their pitching.

The Reds score a lot of runs, but their offense is fairly inconsistent. Combine that fact with their poor pitching, and they have a recipe for losing a lot of ball games. While the Red Sox and Yankees scored a lot of runs during those years, they likely were inconsistent as well. However, unlike the Reds, they had the pitching to win those 2-1 and 4-2 games that you need to win to be successful.

The Reds are in dire need of pitching. While it would be nice to sign Dunn to a long-term contract and make him a part of the Reds future, it's not likely to happen and not the biggest need on this team. This team needs to shop Dunn for a couple of young stud pitching prospects, and try to build this team around young pitching. If the Reds sign Dunn to a long-term deal, nothing will change. They will still have lousy pitching and still lose a ton of ball games.

It's time to move in a different direction, and Dunn is the biggest bargaining chip that we have to move in that direction. Even without Dunn, this lineup will still be fairly potent in the next few years with Wily Mo Pena, Kearns, Lopez, Griffey, and Edwin Encarnacion.

Patrick Bateman
06-18-2005, 02:22 PM
If we can trade Casey instead for a young pitching prospect then we will be able to also use about 8.5M in the FA market. I prefer that scenario since Dunn is way better than Casey and he is younger. Obviously if we could get a Peavy for Dunn then I would be inclined to go for that.

TeamBoone
06-18-2005, 02:29 PM
This team needs to shop Dunn for a couple of young stud pitching prospects, and try to build this team around young pitching. If the Reds sign Dunn to a long-term deal, nothing will change. They will still have lousy pitching and still lose a ton of ball games.

Adam Dunn is worth more than a couple young stud pitching prospects! That aside, what's to guarantee that these prospects will pan out? Absolutely nada! And as we've seen over the last several years, nada is more likely than yada! (yeah, I need to brush up on my Spanish but you get my drift)

And then, per the usual, they've gotten rid of a power hitting stud and gotten absolutely NOTHING to show for it.

If you want prospects, please trade someone with less talent than Adam Dunn... and there are a few on this team that should bring you those studly prospects that you crave. But Adam Dunn is worth more than that.

ochre
06-18-2005, 02:40 PM
I've seen this comparison used several times on this message board, but I think these statistics are misleading. You are looking at those statistics in a vacuum. While the Yankees and Red Sox no doubt relied on their offense to be successful, don't you think the fact that they also had great pitching was a larger factor in the success of their teams?

The Red Sox and Yankees featured guys like Pedro, Schilling, Clemens, Mariano Rivera, Foulke, and Mussina. They won championships because of their pitching.

The Reds score a lot of runs, but their offense is fairly inconsistent. Combine that fact with their poor pitching, and they have a recipe for losing a lot of ball games. While the Red Sox and Yankees scored a lot of runs during those years, they likely were inconsistent as well. However, unlike the Reds, they had the pitching to win those 2-1 and 4-2 games that you need to win to be successful.

The Reds are in dire need of pitching. While it would be nice to sign Dunn to a long-term contract and make him a part of the Reds future, it's not likely to happen and not the biggest need on this team. This team needs to shop Dunn for a couple of young stud pitching prospects, and try to build this team around young pitching. If the Reds sign Dunn to a long-term deal, nothing will change. They will still have lousy pitching and still lose a ton of ball games.

It's time to move in a different direction, and Dunn is the biggest bargaining chip that we have to move in that direction. Even without Dunn, this lineup will still be fairly potent in the next few years with Wily Mo Pena, Kearns, Lopez, Griffey, and Edwin Encarnacion.
You forgot to include the quote that I was responding to, which implied that teams that strikeout don't have good offenses and don't win games.

Why gut the "good part" of the team to take a remote, long-shot chance on the abysmal part? How about making intelligent decisions to bring in players that have a chance at marginally improving the weak part? Milton, Ortiz, and Wilson are not that. Yet the same guy(s) that brought those three in are going to move Dunn for a couple of "can't miss prospects"?

riddelde
06-18-2005, 03:02 PM
If we can trade Casey instead for a young pitching prospect then we will be able to also use about 8.5M in the FA market. I prefer that scenario since Dunn is way better than Casey and he is younger. Obviously if we could get a Peavy for Dunn then I would be inclined to go for that.

Believe me, if the Reds could move Casey and get some potential building blocks in the pitching staff for him, I would be jumping for joy and packing Casey's bags.

With that said, it's just not going to happen. Other teams are not going to give you top prospects for a slow, pricey first baseman. The only incentive to moving Casey at this point is to get his salary off the books, but I don't see the Reds using that available money in free agency. Let's be honest, this payroll is going to be reduced next year due to revenue decreases from lower attendance figures.

If the Reds move Casey, they likely will get little for him and probably won't use the extra cash to make any significant additions in free agency. Not that I would trust the front office to make those signings anyway.

Dunn is the best player on the Reds and the biggest bargaining chip we have. Pitching wins championships, and that's why I think the Reds need to use Dunn to bring in a haul of top prospects. Other organizations have built themselves through trades, and I would like to see the Reds take this path as well.

As far as getting a top major league pitcher for Dunn, I'm not buying it. You think the Padres are going to give up Peavy for Dunn? No way. You don't trade ace pitching for outfielders. I think that alone shows how important pitching is, and why the Reds need to move in that direction.

I don't trust the front office to make this trade either, so I guess it might be prudent to wait until a competent staff is in place before making this type of move. If the right GM can come in here and move Dunn for the right pitching prospects, I think the Reds could set themselves up with a nice young pitching staff to go with Pena, Lopez, Griffey, Encarnacion, and Kearns.

Patrick Bateman
06-18-2005, 03:16 PM
As far as getting a top major league pitcher for Dunn, I'm not buying it. You think the Padres are going to give up Peavy for Dunn? No way. You don't trade ace pitching for outfielders. I think that alone shows how important pitching is, and why the Reds need to move in that direction.


Which is why you don't trade Dunn. Unless we get a Peavy for him then any trade with Dunn will likely hinder us instead of making us better. I never said that trade would be at all realistic, but if Itrade Dunn I don't think I give up anything less than a top tier pitcher.

As for Casey. I think a team like Boston may become desperate and give up one of their better prospects for Casey. If we are simply able to move his salary I wont complain. He is easily replaceable by inserting Kearns in the line-up. I also think the Reds would use the available money since they showed they would in the off-season (though obviously the money spent didn't help)

ochre
06-18-2005, 04:02 PM
I don't trust the front office to make this trade either, so I guess it might be prudent to wait until a competent staff is in place before making this type of move. If the right GM can come in here and move Dunn for the right pitching prospects, I think the Reds could set themselves up with a nice young pitching staff to go with Pena, Lopez, Griffey, Encarnacion, and Kearns.

That is the crux of the situation. Competent management is out there trying to fleece the Reds for the Dunn's of the world. Competent management wouldn't have to trade a player like Dunn, because there would have been competent pitching brought in instead of stiffs like Milton, Ortiz and Wilson. An effective management team would be striving to make Dunn and the other young talent realize they are the future, that this is their team. Instead they seem more concerned with validating their own incompetence by running the same people out there to fail because they are "their" guys. This whole sitution is turned up on its head. The fact that the owner vetoed his COO's decision on who to hire as the GM is really the only "fact" that needs considered when evaluating the effectiveness of the Reds "leadership".

woohoo. I ranted :)

kyred14
06-18-2005, 04:05 PM
prospects for dunn = :barf: :angry:

Number_Fourteen
06-18-2005, 05:22 PM
For all those threatening to no longer be Reds fans, can I inherit their reputation points?

- From a baseball and Reds fan for life.

Riverfront
06-18-2005, 05:40 PM
Dunn may as well be our leadoff hitter. Good OBP. We have Felipe, Randa, and Jr to drive him in. All have more RBIs than Dunn.

The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.

If we could get a good ML pitcher or a couple good P prospects, I'd do it.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2005, 05:44 PM
The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.

:rolleyes:

Career .249/.384/.518-.902

On his way to his second straight .950+ OPS season. If that is average, then give me about 7 more "average" players.

ochre
06-18-2005, 05:46 PM
:rolleyes:

Career .249/.384/.518-.902

On his way to his second straight .950+ OPS season. If that is average, then give me about 7 more "average" players.
easy with the facts there OBM. You might pull something :).

kyred14
06-18-2005, 05:48 PM
Dunn may as well be our leadoff hitter. Good OBP. We have Felipe, Randa, and Jr to drive him in. All have more RBIs than Dunn.

The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.

If we could get a good ML pitcher or a couple good P prospects, I'd do it.

if dunn is average, what does that make jr. and randa? considering dunn is having a better season than either one.

westofyou
06-18-2005, 05:49 PM
The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.

If we could get a good ML pitcher or a couple good P prospects, I'd do it.

Nah... the real problem is holding onto some so tightly (batting average and team dependant stats) that you don't see what you have.

Best 13 players under the age of 25 sorted by OPS since 1980


OPS OPS
1 Albert Pujols 1.037
2 Frank Thomas 1.002
3 Vladimir Guerrero .965
4 Alex Rodriguez .949
5 Manny Ramirez .940
6 Jim Thome .934
7 Nomar Garciaparra .933
8 Ken Griffey Jr. .915
9 Fred McGriff .915
10 Don Mattingly .914
11 Will Clark .905
12 Mike Greenwell .902
13 Adam Dunn .893

Yeah I just didn't realize he was such a disappointment.

Thanks for pointing that out to me.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2005, 05:51 PM
easy with the facts there OBM. You might pull something :).

:D

Its a waste of time really. He'll fire back that he k's too much or doesn't hit for high enough average.

RosieRed
06-18-2005, 06:02 PM
Dunn may as well be our leadoff hitter. Good OBP. We have Felipe, Randa, and Jr to drive him in. All have more RBIs than Dunn.

The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.

If we could get a good ML pitcher or a couple good P prospects, I'd do it.

Yeah, those 80 EBHs last year, along with his 100+ RBI and 100+ BBs and 100+ runs scored ....

definitely average.

KronoRed
06-18-2005, 06:02 PM
:D

Its a waste of time really. He'll fire back that he k's too much or doesn't hit for high enough average.

Bat avg rocks..because it counts all hits the same ;)

westofyou
06-18-2005, 06:05 PM
Yeah, those 80 EBHs last year, along with his 100+ RBI and 100+ BBs and 100+ runs scored ....

definitely average.

Only the 4th Reds right Rosie?

And the first Red with 80 EBH since Parker.

Speaking of batting average... the 10th best player under 25 vs the league in batting Average since 1980 is Luis Polonia. The 10th best in OPS is Jim Thome, the 10th best in RC/27 is Rickey Henderson.

I know what stat I lean on and it's not batting average.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2005, 06:16 PM
Dunn also joined Joe Morgan as the only player in club history to record 100 RBIs, 100 walks and 100 runs in a season.

TeamBoone
06-18-2005, 07:17 PM
The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player.

Perhaps that's because he is not.. let me repeat... NOT an average player.

Good grief, man... have you seen the numerous posts detailing his stats? They are far far from average.

And these knowledgeable posters not only list those stats but they explain each one in exacting detail using comparisons with other players. When you have the time, thumb through some old threads.

What you just said couldn't be further from the truth. My head is still reeling!

Stewie
06-18-2005, 07:50 PM
Dunn may as well be our leadoff hitter. Good OBP. We have Felipe, Randa, and Jr to drive him in. All have more RBIs than Dunn.

The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.

If we could get a good ML pitcher or a couple good P prospects, I'd do it.

Not to pile on, but I think if you ask most non-Reds fans, they will share a similar sentiment to what's said on this board. Dunn is one of the better hitters in this league. I know personally, I would absolutely love to have him on the Phillies. Not really sure where he would play in the field, but as long as he brings an OBP in the .400 range, he can play 3rd for all I care.

captainmorgan07
06-18-2005, 10:16 PM
his obp might be .400 but his numbers with runners in scoring position are terrible

ochre
06-18-2005, 10:19 PM
his obp might be .400 but his numbers with runners in scoring position are terrible
what are they then? Let us reach a solid premise, from which to begin our debate, that we can both agree upon.

vance
06-18-2005, 10:23 PM
Just out of curiosity, if the Reds traded Dunn...what kind of packages would one expect to get as a return?

Rather than be general, look at some teams and come up with what you think would be a deal that each side might make.

RosieRed
06-18-2005, 11:06 PM
his obp might be .400 but his numbers with runners in scoring position are terrible

Which numbers would those be?

Runners on: .266/.504/.582/1.086

Runners on, 2 outs: .194/.463/.306/.769

RISP: .196/.471/.413/.884

RISP, 2 outs: .190/.485/.381/.866

Close and late: .250/.400/.563/.963

And there's a whole lot more here (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/splits?statsId=6763&type=batting&year=2005).

Cigar2
06-18-2005, 11:44 PM
Let me just added to a little and that I'm with the group who say don't trade Dunn unless it's the ultimate blockbuster type of deal.
Adam is a guy you build the offense/team around you don't trade away for some magic beans.
The people you trade are first Casey I know he's a fan favorite and all but it's time for him to move on.
So trade Casey now even if it's for some single A/AA prospects that not even pitching prospects.
Second on the list is Junior ( though I'll admit were probably going to have to wait until next year) and in doing so just say it didn't work and wasn't meant to be right.
Third is of course Randa for the same reason of moving Junior thing's just didn't workout here this year and he's not in the long term plans for the Reds.

That's about it for the trades I'd look to make this year. And frankly that's all we can make when it comes to trades this year.
There nothing in the pitching staff that we could trade and that anyone would want.
DannyO would have to find someone like himself to trade any of the pitching pieces we would want to trade.
Heck the only pitchers we can trade right now are Mercker, and Weathers and that's not saying a lot.

Patrick Bateman
06-18-2005, 11:55 PM
If Ortiz can start pitching half decent we may be able to trade him for a minor prospect at the deadline since he will be non-tendered next year anyways.

forfreelin04
06-19-2005, 12:26 AM
Sometimes I truly wonder if I am getting Adam Dunn confused with an All-Star player by the way most of you speak of him. George Foster said today on the Tracey Jones Show that "Adam's job is to not take walks his job is to drive runners in." I understand in many cases he is pitched around. But I usually feel he is up there looking for a particular pitch in a certain area of the plate to drive. But it seems to me he fails to realize that smart pitchers will try their best to pitch him exactly where he doesn't want to be pitched. These lack of adjustments on Dunn's part will forever be exemplified in his strikeouts and low avg with RISP until he learns to be a "student of the art of hitting" instead of a large guy " with a good eye."

Patrick Bateman
06-19-2005, 12:29 AM
Sometimes I truly wonder if I am getting Adam Dunn confused with an All-Star player by the way most of you speak of him. George Foster said today on the Tracey Jones Show that "Adam's job is to not take walks his job is to drive runners in." I understand in many cases he is pitched around. But I usually feel he is up there looking for a particular pitch in a certain area of the plate to drive. But it seems to me he fails to realize that smart pitchers will try their best to pitch him exactly where he doesn't want to be pitched. These lack of adjustments on Dunn's part will forever be exemplified in his strikeouts and low avg with RISP until he learns to be a "student of the art of hitting" instead of a large guy " with a good eye."

Taking walks is one of Dunn's most important jobs since it is a way to get on base without getting an out. You really seem to be undervaluing our best hitter.

kyred14
06-19-2005, 12:30 AM
Sometimes I truly wonder if I am getting Adam Dunn confused with an All-Star player by the way most of you speak of him. George Foster said today on the Tracey Jones Show that "Adam's job is to not take walks his job is to drive runners in." I understand in many cases he is pitched around. But I usually feel he is up there looking for a particular pitch in a certain area of the plate to drive. But it seems to me he fails to realize that smart pitchers will try their best to pitch him exactly where he doesn't want to be pitched. These lack of adjustments on Dunn's part will forever be exemplified in his strikeouts and low avg with RISP until he learns to be a "student of the art of hitting" instead of a large guy " with a good eye."

dunn's job, like every other player, is not to make outs. he's really good at that.

toledodan
06-19-2005, 12:33 AM
dunn needs to bat second so he has protection. he has a good eye but seems to go after bad pitches because he trys to hard when he's constantly pitched around.

kyred14
06-19-2005, 12:38 AM
dunn needs to bat second so he has protection. he has a good eye but seems to go after bad pitches because he trys to hard when he's constantly pitched around.

i would prefer 3rd, but 2nd would be fine. he might as well leadoff, as he leadoff an inning in 3 of 4 ab's. i'm becoming more and more convinced that the FO is trying to drive down his numbers.

forfreelin04
06-19-2005, 12:44 AM
That's fine if you think Dunn is the best HITTER on the team. I suppose walking, striking out half the time, and hitting solo homeruns qualify as making you the best hitter in your own minds than have a field day. Not in my mind, do you think Pete Rose, the all time hits leader would say Adam Dunn is the best hitter on the Reds team? I dunno when you toss around Hitter which the first three letters of the word are "hit", it doesn't really make sense.

forfreelin04
06-19-2005, 12:49 AM
If you guys wanna disagree with George Foster that's your own best business. You have much bigger cajones than I do. I guess I'll stick with George. :)

oregonred
06-19-2005, 01:14 AM
Only the Reds FO can succeed in alienating the very guy that actually can draw your average fan to the park to watch him swat a 500ft homerun.

They ought to be pimping Dunn as larger than life every single chance they get to fill butts in the GABP seats. Someone show the inept F.O. Exhibit A with the McGwire/St Louis example.

forfreelin04
06-19-2005, 01:33 AM
Good example with Mcgwire. He retired now look at the Cardinals.

OnBaseMachine
06-19-2005, 02:24 AM
Good example with Mcgwire. He retired now look at the Cardinals.

Yeah...the Cardinals got better with the lone reason being McGwire's retirement.

The Cards success has nothing to do with the fact that they acquired Mulder, Carpenter, Suppan, Rolen, Edmonds, Sanders, Marquis, Isringhausen and developed Pujols. They only got better because Big Mac retired. :rolleyes:

Patrick Bateman
06-19-2005, 02:30 AM
Great example with Mcgwire. A great hitter with lots of power. Obviously he was holding the Cards out of the playoffs it definitley had nothing to do with the rest of the team.

Also I really don't give a rats behing what George Foster or Pete Rose thinks about Dunn. If they think he isn't one of the best hitters in baseball, then they are simply wrong and would not want them anywhere near Dan Obrien.

Dunn is a great hitter. K's means nothing. They are in fact a very good way of getting out since they take lots of pitches which leads to a shorter outing for a starting pitcher. I don't understand what is not to like about Dunn. Sure his batiing average is low but he more than makes up with it with his high amount of walks. Plus he hits lots of homeruns. He is by far our most complete hitter on the Reds. He gets on base more than Casey and has a considerable more amount of power. If you can prove with stats that Dunn is not our best hitter then I can be convinced, but I think you will figure out the truth.

kyred14
06-19-2005, 02:32 AM
Only the Reds FO can succeed in alienating the very guy that actually can draw your average fan to the park to watch him swat a 500ft homerun.

They ought to be pimping Dunn as larger than life every single chance they get to fill butts in the GABP seats. Someone show the inept F.O. Exhibit A with the McGwire/St Louis example.

yes, i'm sure the cards and sox would have rolled the WS without pujols and manny last year. i've heard alot of arguments before, but that might be the first time i've heard that losing your best player actually helps your team.

edit: completely ignore that, i don't even know why i thought that was said. i'm an idiot

kyred14
06-19-2005, 02:34 AM
Great example with Mcgwire. A great hitter with lots of power. Obviously he was holding the Cards out of the playoffs it definitley had nothing to do with the rest of the team.

Also I really don't give a rats behing what George Foster or Pete Rose thinks about Dunn. If they think he isn't one of the best hitters in baseball, then they are simply wrong and would not want them anywhere near Dan Obrien.

Dunn is a great hitter. K's means nothing. They are in fact a very good way of getting out since they take lots of pitches which leads to a shorter outing for a starting pitcher. I don't understand what is not to like about Dunn. Sure his batiing average is low but he more than makes up with it with his high amount of walks. Plus he hits lots of homeruns. He is by far our most complete hitter on the Reds. He gets on base more than Casey and has a considerable more amount of power. If you can prove with stats that Dunn is not our best hitter then I can be convinced, but I think you will figure out the truth.

finally someone with some sense. :clap:

Ravenlord
06-19-2005, 02:34 AM
yes, i'm sure the cards and sox would have rolled the WS without pujols and manny last year. i've heard alot of arguments before, but that might be the first time i've heard that losing your best player actually helps your team.that's not what he's saying.

he's saying portray Dunn as a Babe Ruth guy.

the Cards weren't a great team with McGuire, but they marketed him as Babe Ruth (the record* chase helped a lot), and they used that revenue to slowly expand with Big Mac, and then aggressively expand once he retired.

instead the Reds FO is portraying Dunn as a bad attitude and bad player.

kyred14
06-19-2005, 02:38 AM
that's not what he's saying.

he's saying portray Dunn as a Babe Ruth guy.

the Cards weren't a great team with McGuire, but they marketed him as Babe Ruth (the record* chase helped a lot), and they used that revenue to slowly expand with Big Mac, and then aggressively expand once he retired.

instead the Reds FO is portraying Dunn as a bad attitude and bad player.

wow, that was what he said, i'm a moron :laugh:

forfreelin04
06-19-2005, 03:07 AM
Great example with Mcgwire. A great hitter with lots of power. Obviously he was holding the Cards out of the playoffs it definitley had nothing to do with the rest of the team.

Also I really don't give a rats behing what George Foster or Pete Rose thinks about Dunn. If they think he isn't one of the best hitters in baseball, then they are simply wrong and would not want them anywhere near Dan Obrien.

Dunn is a great hitter. K's means nothing. They are in fact a very good way of getting out since they take lots of pitches which leads to a shorter outing for a starting pitcher. I don't understand what is not to like about Dunn. Sure his batiing average is low but he more than makes up with it with his high amount of walks. Plus he hits lots of homeruns. He is by far our most complete hitter on the Reds. He gets on base more than Casey and has a considerable more amount of power. If you can prove with stats that Dunn is not our best hitter then I can be convinced, but I think you will figure out the truth.

HAHA discrediting two of the best REDS baseball players of ALL TIME. :laugh: Unless you ARE Austin Kearns you might have some clout there. The point about Mcgwire wasn't to say that the Cardinals got better just because of his retirement. But an earlier post by someone on a different thread about Dunn said his 500 foot blasts were a reason he came out to the ballpark. Even going further to say, the average baseball fan goes to see the homeruns Dunn hits. Certainly, this statement has some validity to it. Homeruns are perhaps the most crowd pleasing spectacles in baseball... maybe in all of sports. Mcgwire did that for the Cardinals, he brought people out to the ballpark. Although, the Cardinal fans are so diehard I doubt they needed much of a reason to buy tickets. If this FO was as brilliant as the Cardinals they could package Dunn for someone even better than him. I don't trust ours to do this of course, doubting anyone actually believes it too. Saying that, I guess I wouldn't trade Dunn with Obie at the helm but I would be all for it if we had a man of better baseball minded GM. However, going back to Mcgwire, he was swelling up the payroll with his superstar like status. After he retired, the Cardinals were able to sign a plethora of superstars like Rolen and Edmonds not to leave out Walker and Mulder several years after. Before the Big Red Machine was assembled, the Reds had a fan favorite in Lee May. In many's eyes, a future Hall of Famer. The Reds wanted a more complete offense so they went out and got an excellent basestealer and a contact hitter. Joe Morgan, I think was his name, and he went on to win two consectuive MVP awards. Something that DUNN will NEVER EVER DO.

Please do not compare Pujols to Dunn. They are two entirely different players. Pujols is an all around great player: offensively and defensively. Dunn does have high marks for HR and OBP but he doesn't hold Pujols's jockstrap in much else. (Feel free to correct me there for I'm sure you will throw out some new stats.)

As far as Dunn being the best hitter and best player on this team, I think your sadly mistaken. Besides his occasional solo shots (which will always far surpass his homeruns with runners on bases), Dunn does lead the team in OBP. Congrats Dunner your able to take any pitch that isn't remotely what your looking for. ( Which is the High Fastball and out over the plate to inside corner most of the time) Furthermore, when Dunn isn't able to get what he wants and gets over anxious, he tends to Flayl at pitching on the outside part of the plate. Marty always lets us know when the Flayl has taken place if your not watching the game on TV. Furthermore, THE HORRIBLE AVG Stat. That is somehow lost in most of your brains even though 100 years of baseball has credited that stat as being one if not the most important stat in baseball. Theres a reason why .Avg is listed before OBP on MLB.com and every newspaper across the country on Saturdays. If I was going to pick the best hitter on the team presently, I would have to go with Lopez or Casey. Freel has a high OBP too! But that is WHAT he is supposed to do as the leadoff man. You forget most of the different posistions in the batting order are designed to have a particular goal in mind. Dunn's goal is to drive runners in at his position not get on base. Even though, yes, he does often get up first in an inning but he does have plenty of opportunities to drive runners in. Please don't bat Dunn lead off, the last thing we need is a 6 and half footer barreling around the bases attempting to score from 1st or second base.

SteelSD
06-19-2005, 03:31 AM
HAHA discrediting two of the best REDS baseball players of ALL TIME. :laugh: Unless you ARE Austin Kearns you might have some clout there. The point about Mcgwire wasn't to say that the Cardinals got better just because of his retirement. But an earlier post by someone on a different thread about Dunn said his 500 foot blasts were a reason he came out to the ballpark. Even going further to say, the average baseball fan goes to see the homeruns Dunn hits. Certainly, this statement has some validity to it. Homeruns are perhaps the most crowd pleasing spectacles in baseball... maybe in all of sports. Mcgwire did that for the Cardinals, he brought people out to the ballpark. Although, the Cardinal fans are so diehard I doubt they needed much of a reason to buy tickets. If this FO was as brilliant as the Cardinals they could package Dunn for someone even better than him. I don't trust ours to do this of course, doubting anyone actually believes it too. Saying that, I guess I wouldn't trade Dunn with Obie at the helm but I would be all for it if we had a man of better baseball minded GM. However, going back to Mcgwire, he was swelling up the payroll with his superstar like status. After he retired, the Cardinals were able to sign a plethora of superstars like Rolen and Edmonds not to leave out Walker and Mulder several years after. Before the Big Red Machine was assembled, the Reds had a fan favorite in Lee May. In many's eyes, a future Hall of Famer. The Reds wanted a more complete offense so they went out and got an excellent basestealer and a contact hitter. Joe Morgan, I think was his name, and he went on to win two consectuive MVP awards. Something that DUNN will NEVER EVER DO.

Please do not compare Pujols to Dunn. They are two entirely different players. Pujols is an all around great player: offensively and defensively. Dunn does have high marks for HR and OBP but he doesn't hold Pujols's jockstrap in much else. (Feel free to correct me there for I'm sure you will throw out some new stats.)

As far as Dunn being the best hitter and best player on this team, I think your sadly mistaken. Besides his occasional solo shots (which will always far surpass his homeruns with runners on bases), Dunn does lead the team in OBP. Congrats Dunner your able to take any pitch that isn't remotely what your looking for. ( Which is the High Fastball and out over the plate to inside corner most of the time) Furthermore, when Dunn isn't able to get what he wants and gets over anxious, he tends to Flayl at pitching on the outside part of the plate. Marty always lets us know when the Flayl has taken place if your not watching the game on TV. Furthermore, THE HORRIBLE AVG Stat. That is somehow lost in most of your brains even though 100 years of baseball has credited that stat as being one if not the most important stat in baseball. Theres a reason why .Avg is listed before OBP on MLB.com and every newspaper across the country on Saturdays. If I was going to pick the best hitter on the team presently, I would have to go with Lopez or Casey. Freel has a high OBP too! But that is WHAT he is supposed to do as the leadoff man. You forget most of the different posistions in the batting order are designed to have a particular goal in mind. Dunn's goal is to drive runners in at his position not get on base. Even though, yes, he does often get up first in an inning but he does have plenty of opportunities to drive runners in. Please don't bat Dunn lead off, the last thing we need is a 6 and half footer barreling around the bases attempting to score from 1st or second base.

Things that need correcting...

1. Former MLB players are not immune from being wrong about things simply because they played the game.
2. Mark McGwire did not make A-Rod money.
3. The Cardinals acquired and signed Jim Edmonds long-term while Mark McGwire was still playing for them.
4. The acquistions of Larry Walker and Mark Mulder had nothing to do with Mark McGwire's salary.
5. A player does not have to be Albert Pujols to be a great player.
6. The best hitter is the player who contributes the most offensive Runs to his team. That is Adam Dunn and it's not open for debate.
7. It's spelled "flail".
8. Listening to Marty is a terminal illness.
9. Something that's been done for a long time isn't necessarily right.
10. Regardless of lineup position, a player's goal is to not make an Out and to acquire as many bases as he can when doing so.
11. Batting order "positions" aren't "designed" for anything.
12. The choice isn't "Walks or Hits". It's "Walks or Outs".
13. Height has nothing to do with anything.

There are more, but let's work with that baker's dozen first and go from there.

Jpup
06-19-2005, 07:52 AM
Adam Dunn is, by far, the best hitter on the team, there is not much that Adam can do about where he bats in the order. He can't drive in runs if no one is on base, no matter what George Foster says. Felipe Lopez is going to be an All-Star and, for my money, has been the best Red this year. Aaron Harang has been decent as well.

Keep Dunn, Lopez, Harang, and Wagner and let the rest fall where they may. :thumbup:

Strikes Out Looking
06-19-2005, 08:17 AM
A long time ago, the Pirates were in last place. Ralph Kiner was their homerun hitter, leading the NL in homers. They traded him because they could be in last place with him and last place without him.

Again, while I'm not crazy about Dunn (like some of you on the board are), he isn't really the problem here. At this point, the Reds will be in last place with him or without him.

captainmorgan07
06-19-2005, 11:44 AM
Adam Dunn is, by far, the best hitter on the team, there is not much that Adam can do about where he bats in the order. He can't drive in runs if no one is on base, no matter what George Foster says. Felipe Lopez is going to be an All-Star and, for my money, has been the best Red this year. Aaron Harang has been decent as well.

are u kidding me his is no where close the best hitter on this team does he make everybody else in the order better? NO does he hit for average good? NO does he strike out to much? Yes i dont' care how many walks he takes he's still gonna strike out half as much with runners on walks don't help because nobody behind him is gonan drive him and the guy on base in

OnBaseMachine
06-19-2005, 11:46 AM
:bang:

captainmorgan is really someone(steel?) messing with us, right?

Patrick Bateman
06-19-2005, 11:51 AM
HAHA discrediting two of the best REDS baseball players of ALL TIME. :laugh: Unless you ARE Austin Kearns you might have some clout there.

To be perfectly honest, if George Foster or Pete Rose really said what they did about Dunn then I am shocked, perplexed, and embarassed to learn how they lack basic baseball knowledge.

pahster
06-19-2005, 11:54 AM
are u kidding me his is no where close the best hitter on this team does he make everybody else in the order better? NO does he hit for average good? NO does he strike out to much? Yes i dont' care how many walks he takes he's still gonna strike out half as much with runners on walks don't help because nobody behind him is gonan drive him and the guy on base in

So it's Dunn's fault that he's had little to no protection all year?

Ravenlord
06-19-2005, 11:55 AM
are u kidding me his is no where close the best hitter on this team does he make everybody else in the order better? NO does he hit for average good? NO does he strike out to much? Yes i dont' care how many walks he takes he's still gonna strike out half as much with runners on walks don't help because nobody behind him is gonan drive him and the guy on base indon't like Jim Thome either do you?

kyred14
06-19-2005, 02:11 PM
are u kidding me his is no where close the best hitter on this team does he make everybody else in the order better? NO does he hit for average good? NO does he strike out to much? Yes i dont' care how many walks he takes he's still gonna strike out half as much with runners on walks don't help because nobody behind him is gonan drive him and the guy on base in

i don't know how anyone can explain this any more clear to you. you're FIRST job as a batter is not to make an out. dunn is the best on the team at that. also, why do you keep harping on batting avg? it has been proven over and over that it is a worthless stat. i don't want anything to do with a stat that counts a bloop single the same as a home run. strikeouts as just the same as any other out. it sounds like you're blaming dunn for miley's inept ability for filling out a lineup card.

TeamBoone
06-19-2005, 06:47 PM
Adam Dunn is, by far, the best hitter on the team, there is not much that Adam can do about where he bats in the order. He can't drive in runs if no one is on base, no matter what George Foster says. Felipe Lopez is going to be an All-Star and, for my money, has been the best Red this year. Aaron Harang has been decent as well.

are u kidding me his is no where close the best hitter on this team does he make everybody else in the order better? NO does he hit for average good? NO does he strike out to much? Yes i dont' care how many walks he takes he's still gonna strike out half as much with runners on walks don't help because nobody behind him is gonan drive him and the guy on base in

Trying to teach you the art of "stats tell the story" is like trying to teach Little Team Griffey something... and he's only four. Don't you want to learn more about baseball?

KearnsyEars
06-19-2005, 08:06 PM
Adam is a guy you build the offense/team around you don't trade away for some magic beans.

great point, my feelings exactly. Dunn should be here a long long time

captainmorgan07
06-19-2005, 08:27 PM
i'll eat my words dunn and pena came up today and hit for contact they can do it at times if they improve on that yes they will be the two best hitters on this team there not there yet but they have th potential 2

forfreelin04
06-19-2005, 08:39 PM
Things that need correcting...

1. Former MLB players are not immune from being wrong about things simply because they played the game.
2. Mark McGwire did not make A-Rod money.
3. The Cardinals acquired and signed Jim Edmonds long-term while Mark McGwire was still playing for them.
4. The acquistions of Larry Walker and Mark Mulder had nothing to do with Mark McGwire's salary.
5. A player does not have to be Albert Pujols to be a great player.
6. The best hitter is the player who contributes the most offensive Runs to his team. That is Adam Dunn and it's not open for debate.
7. It's spelled "flail".
8. Listening to Marty is a terminal illness.
9. Something that's been done for a long time isn't necessarily right.
10. Regardless of lineup position, a player's goal is to not make an Out and to acquire as many bases as he can when doing so.
11. Batting order "positions" aren't "designed" for anything.
12. The choice isn't "Walks or Hits". It's "Walks or Outs".
13. Height has nothing to do with anything.

There are more, but let's work with that baker's dozen first and go from there.

1.Very True. But we're not talking about Willie Greene and Corky Romano here.
2.Of course he didn't make A-Rod money but because he was a spectacle in his homerun race. More fans came out, more merchandise was bought, and the Cardinals were on the map nationally to steal some signficance from cities like New York and Chicago.
3.Very Well, Sorry I don't go back and check my homework. Which totally discredits the whole post in your mind I'm sure.
4. Thanks fo No. 2 St. Louis is now able to sign a few bigger boys to make playoff and WS runs continually.
5. Of course he doesn't nor am I saying Adam Dunn is a bad player. But Pujols is a complete player. What does Adam Dunn do that makes him a complete player?
6.Most offensive run producer when the game is already out of reach. The best hitter on a team. Hits all the time sir not just when he gets the pitch (belt high inside to middle park of the plate) he wants.
7. Thanks for the spelling correction. :thumbup:
8. An opinion of Marty? I don't know how you watch your Reds games but he's a Greek God in comparison to George Grande.
9.Of course not, but no one has given me any legitmate examples that batting avg is not useful? Nor that OBP is necessarily better? Put stats out there, that's fine but your not talking to me. Your copying and pasting.
10. I don't know what planet taught you that but the batter's trying to get a hit... not take a walk.
11. They might not have been designed "for anything" originally but if you've ever watched a game outside of the Stat Ticker I think you'll find similar players bat in similiar spots in the lineup across MLB. I mean if everyone swallowed your OBP than Dunn would be batting 1st. Not to mention, Bonds would have been batting 1st when he hit 70. I doubt Barry would swallow the whole "you get on base alot sir" garbage. I think Bob Boone swallowed it once, man wish we had him back! If it doesn't mean anything STEEL than let Ortiz bat 1st next game he pitches. That will help!
12. There is no choice at the plate. The pitcher allows you to walk by pitching the ball outside of the strike zone. If Adam Dunn has a good eye that is great but he's under the pitcher's mercy whether or not he's gotta swing. I really don't know what you are trying to say there.
13. Good point, but it does make the strike zone alot taller.

forfreelin04
06-19-2005, 08:45 PM
CaptainMorgan do not get distressed about one game. Adam Dunn is still not the best hitter on this team. Just because he has one good game and finally manages to drive some runners in doesn't make him any different in my book. Again, he got two ptiches from Braves pitching he was looking for. Just don't expect Adam to make any adjustments from today on when pitchers start hitting the outside corner and curving him out there too. Hitters make adjustments ADAm does not. If he did make adjustments his batting Avg would be higher and he wouldn't be putting up similar numbers to last year. They would be better!

OnBaseMachine
06-19-2005, 08:59 PM
Adam Dunn is still not the best hitter on this team.

So...who is the best hitter on the team?

TeamBoone
06-19-2005, 09:01 PM
forfree, you are just a lost cause... and very very very stubborn.

forfreelin04
06-19-2005, 09:15 PM
Sean Casey and give me something other than his DP for an arguement against it. DP happen about once a game MAYBE and Dunn strikes out like once in every three plate appearances it seems like. Certainly Sean has killed some rallies but give the guy some credit he stings the ball, especially lately. I don't know if any of you have had the opportunity to coach baseball or even maybe to play but you bat your best hitter 3rd. I don't think their is much other teams batting their best hitter 6th? But again, you'll say it's Miley's fault Dunn is not hitting 3rd.

Casey is the best hitter because of the reasons Dunn is not:

He K's rarely ( a non productive out)
AVG is best on team and has been rising for awhile

AND a stat ohhhh I know everyones likes these:
Hits! Oh MY GOD who is a better hitter! The one with the most hits!! If were saying who is the best person about getting on base than it would be Adam Dunn. But "hitter" not best stander and looker.
Sean Casey 79
Dunn 55

TeamBoone, sorry I've been around baseball too long to fall into the quagmire of OBP and strikeout denile. If everyone on here that defends Adam Dunn wasn't such a "fan" than they wouldnt go to such great lengths to defend him. Sometimes even their Redszone profiles give them away. :)

RosieRed
06-19-2005, 09:23 PM
forfreelin:

Casey: .322/.379/.429; OPS = .808; 3 HR; 31 RBI; 20 hits for extra bases

Dunn: .247/.398/.565; OPS = .963; 18 HR; 37 RBI; 33 hits for extra bases

In conclusion: About the ONLY thing Casey does better than Dunn is hit singles. And that middle number there shows us that it doesn't really matter, since Dunn gets on base more anyway.

Also, since good hitters apparently drive in runs, why is that Casey has 24 more hits than Dunn, but fewer RBI?

OnBaseMachine
06-19-2005, 09:33 PM
I knew he was going to say Casey. I was going to ask you why Dunn has more rbi than Casey despite Casey having a higher average, but Rosie beat me to it.

Nice post Rosie. But you're just wasting your time with him. It's like talking to that wall over there.

RosieRed
06-19-2005, 09:39 PM
I knew he was going to say Casey. I was going to ask you why Dunn has more rbi than Casey despite Casey having a higher average, but Rosie beat me to it.

Nice post Rosie. But you're just wasting your time with him. It's like talking to that wall over there.

Yeah, I know. But I'm stuck at work right now and really bored. Talking to the wall is an actual option I have ... may as well look at some stats while I do it! :)

KronoRed
06-19-2005, 09:46 PM
If the next argument is "Casey doesn't have as many RBI because of where he bats" then explain why Casey has 29 more at bats with Runners on then Dunn does? and 15 more at bats with runners in scoring position? ;)

kyred14
06-19-2005, 10:00 PM
Sean Casey and give me something other than his DP for an arguement against it. DP happen about once a game MAYBE and Dunn strikes out like once in every three plate appearances it seems like. Certainly Sean has killed some rallies but give the guy some credit he stings the ball, especially lately. I don't know if any of you have had the opportunity to coach baseball or even maybe to play but you bat your best hitter 3rd. I don't think their is much other teams batting their best hitter 6th? But again, you'll say it's Miley's fault Dunn is not hitting 3rd.

Casey is the best hitter because of the reasons Dunn is not:

He K's rarely ( a non productive out)
AVG is best on team and has been rising for awhile

AND a stat ohhhh I know everyones likes these:
Hits! Oh MY GOD who is a better hitter! The one with the most hits!! If were saying who is the best person about getting on base than it would be Adam Dunn. But "hitter" not best stander and looker.
Sean Casey 79
Dunn 55

TeamBoone, sorry I've been around baseball too long to fall into the quagmire of OBP and strikeout denile. If everyone on here that defends Adam Dunn wasn't such a "fan" than they wouldnt go to such great lengths to defend him. Sometimes even their Redszone profiles give them away. :)

first of all casey is the better SINGLES hitter. you have to have speed to be a productive singles hitter, and casey isn't too quick to put in nicely. casey has 24 more hits than dunn, but dunn has 21 more total bases. strikeout denail? its been proven with the examples of the red sox and this year's reds that strikeouts are just another out.

stop harping productive outs, they don't exist! and if they did, casey leads the world in non-productive outs.(otherwise know as the GIDP) you're running out of amo, start picking on someone who isn't the best player on the team.

ochre
06-19-2005, 10:06 PM
There is one immutable law of baseball:
Barring acts of god, you have 27 outs to score more runs than the other guys.

Those who make fewer outs are better.

TC81190
06-19-2005, 10:32 PM
Look.

I have been reading this thread for a while. I've tried to hold it in. But, I just can't do it. It's bursting out of me.

Forfreelin'. Captainmorgan. You are annoying. Try listening to someone for a change. I respect that you have differeing opinions. I do not respect that you will not listen to reason, and do the equivalent of plugging your ears, rocking back and forth, and yelling "LALALALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU!". You are dragging down the quality of this board. Now I see the virtue of having a Reds Live.

Thank you.


End post.

ochre
06-19-2005, 10:35 PM
Please don't call fellow posters names TC81190.

wheels
06-19-2005, 11:14 PM
:eek:

This was the most painful anti Dunn thread ever.

My whole body hurts, and I feel like I'm gonna hurl.

Plus, I'm not so sure I'm gonna be able to spell anymore.

Just gonna start using words like "u" and "r" unless I get far away from this thread.

SteelSD
06-20-2005, 12:01 AM
1.Very True. But we're not talking about Willie Greene and Corky Romano here.

Doesn't matter. Some of the best coaches were and are players who weren't very good. A player's knowledge is not dictated by the level of their production.


2.Of course he didn't make A-Rod money but because he was a spectacle in his homerun race. More fans came out, more merchandise was bought, and the Cardinals were on the map nationally to steal some signficance from cities like New York and Chicago.

Uh-huh. McGwire was a draw. However, you've positioned that clearing McGwire's salary was the reason the Cardinals were able to go out and get players- even years after he was off the books. That's not an accurate statement. McGwire was never a salary albatross to the Cardinals. He never made all that much money.


3.Very Well, Sorry I don't go back and check my homework. Which totally discredits the whole post in your mind I'm sure.

No. It just discredits the portion of your post in which you attempt to dissect a situational dynamic you don't really understand.


4. Thanks fo No. 2 St. Louis is now able to sign a few bigger boys to make playoff and WS runs continually.

The acquisitions of Larry Walker and Mark Mulder had nothing to do with Mark McGwire's salary.


5. Of course he doesn't nor am I saying Adam Dunn is a bad player. But Pujols is a complete player. What does Adam Dunn do that makes him a complete player?

Not make Outs and acquire Bases. That's what.


6.Most offensive run producer when the game is already out of reach. The best hitter on a team. Hits all the time sir not just when he gets the pitch (belt high inside to middle park of the plate) he wants.

Adam Dunn 2004- Close and Late: .250 BA/.400OBP/.563 SLG

You have nothing to complain about there.


7. Thanks for the spelling correction. :thumbup:

You're entirely welcome.


8. An opinion of Marty? I don't know how you watch your Reds games but he's a Greek God in comparison to George Grande.

Samwise Gamgee was larger than Frodo Baggins.

Doesn't make Samwise big now, does it?


9.Of course not, but no one has given me any legitmate examples that batting avg is not useful? Nor that OBP is necessarily better? Put stats out there, that's fine but your not talking to me. Your copying and pasting.

What's better- a Single or a Double?

Who scores more Runs- teams with higher BA's or teams with higher OBP's?

Answer both of those and you'll know what you need to. And yes, the answers are obvious.


10. I don't know what planet taught you that but the batter's trying to get a hit... not take a walk.

Hits generate bases and there's nothing wrong with Hits. But swinging at Balls isn't a good way to get Hits.

You seem to still think that the choice is "Hit or Walk". It's not. It's "Walk or Out". Your philosophy means that hitters should swing at pitches out of the strike zone in an effort to generate more Hits. I have a feeling that even you know that's a bad idea.


11. They might not have been designed "for anything" originally but if you've ever watched a game outside of the Stat Ticker I think you'll find similar players bat in similiar spots in the lineup across MLB. I mean if everyone swallowed your OBP than Dunn would be batting 1st. Not to mention, Bonds would have been batting 1st when he hit 70. I doubt Barry would swallow the whole "you get on base alot sir" garbage. I think Bob Boone swallowed it once, man wish we had him back! If it doesn't mean anything STEEL than let Ortiz bat 1st next game he pitches. That will help!

Barry Bonds hit in the leadoff slot for the first portion of his career. Absolutely understands the value of not swinging at Balls because he doesn't swing at them. Waits for his pitch. Creams it.

Rickey Henderson was the most destructive leadoff hitter of all time not because he was fast- but because he combined a high OBP with a high SLG from that slot and supplemented that with exceptional functional speed. If Henderson wouldn't have stolen base one, he'd still have been the most prolific leadoff hitter in history. Heck, he finished in the top 10 in his league in OBP SIXTEEN seasons.

Henderson led the American League in OPS in 1990. Won the AL MVP because of it. Finished in the top 10 in OPS four times during his career. You'd have had him hitting cleanup, because that's where power hitters hit according to you.

Joe Morgan doesn't understand the value of OBP in the leadoff slot even though he hit right behind Pete Rose. The funny thing is that Rose rarely stole bases. Yet now you're arguing about what lineup slots are "supposed" to be while citing Pete Rose and denigrating OBP while not understanding what Pete Rose's actual value was to the Big Red Machine. That value was obviously his ability to not make Outs, because he didn't steal bases. And, in fact, Rose didn't steal a single base in 1975. Not one. Zero. I think the Reds won something that year...and the next when Rose swiped all of nine bags.

Pete Rose was not a traditional "template" leadoff hitter.

In short, you could have switched Morgan and Rose in the lineup and you would have had the same and possibly a better result. And yes, 1975 is the year that Joe Morgan posted a .466 OBP and a .508 SLG from the 2-slot and led the National League in OPS. He led the NL in OPS in 1976 as well. That's a slot you'd try to position as a slot that needs to just "move runners along" and create "productive outs" to get runners in scoring position. Yet, Sparky Anderson didn't do that. He positioned a high OBP/high SLG hitter right up front.

And Sparky did that because he understood that the #2 slot in the order isn't "designed" for anything. Either that or it was a happy accident caused by a perception that Morgan's speed would be useful that high in the lineup. We'll never know. But it is what it is. High OBP. High SLG. #2 Slot.

Certainly you can understand the value of not making Outs and acquiring a ton of Bases high in the lineup, right?

BTW, the reason you wouldn't want Ramon Ortiz higher than the 9th slot is that he makes a ton of Outs. That's called "OBP"- the same thing you've been railing on. You're making my argument for me and have been since your first post.


12. There is no choice at the plate. The pitcher allows you to walk by pitching the ball outside of the strike zone. If Adam Dunn has a good eye that is great but he's under the pitcher's mercy whether or not he's gotta swing. I really don't know what you are trying to say there.

There's no choice? Then why don't all hitters Walk at the same rate- even similar BA hitters?

The obvious reason is that being able to tell balls from strikes IS a choice. And it's a skill. The most skilled players in that area also tend to be the most productive. See: Dunn, Adam.


13. Good point, but it does make the strike zone alot taller.

Nope. Umpires define their own strike zones. A player's height has little to do with it in this day and age. But you have hit on something. Dunn gets a lot of Ballls well below the knees called as Strikes simply because he's a tall guy. So if you want to make a point that Dunn gets a lot of pitches out of the strike zone called as Strikes, that's a good point. It also explains a few of his K's.

Cyclone792
06-20-2005, 12:31 AM
Yeah, I know. But I'm stuck at work right now and really bored. Talking to the wall is an actual option I have ... may as well look at some stats while I do it! :)

I can recommend plenty of high quality baseball-related reading material if you're that bored, Rosie. There's a reason I haven't posted in this thread since this seems to be one of those threads where I can simply refer specific people to my sig (read: those who bash Dunn seemingly daily).

;)

:deadhorse:

WMR
06-20-2005, 12:54 AM
Doesn't matter. Some of the best coaches were and are players who weren't very good. A player's knowledge is not dictated by the level of their production.



Uh-huh. McGwire was a draw. However, you've positioned that clearing McGwire's salary was the reason the Cardinals were able to go out and get players- even years after he was off the books. That's not an accurate statement. McGwire was never a salary albatross to the Cardinals. He never made all that much money.



No. It just discredits the portion of your post in which you attempt to dissect a situational dynamic you don't really understand.



The acquisitions of Larry Walker and Mark Mulder had nothing to do with Mark McGwire's salary.



Not make Outs and acquire Bases. That's what.



Adam Dunn 2004- Close and Late: .250 BA/.400OBP/.563 SLG

You have nothing to complain about there.



You're entirely welcome.



Samwise Gamgee was larger than Frodo Baggins.

Doesn't make Samwise big now, does it?



What's better- a Single or a Double?

Who scores more Runs- teams with higher BA's or teams with higher OBP's?

Answer both of those and you'll know what you need to. And yes, the answers are obvious.



Hits generate bases and there's nothing wrong with Hits. But swinging at Balls isn't a good way to get Hits.

You seem to still think that the choice is "Hit or Walk". It's not. It's "Walk or Out". Your philosophy means that hitters should swing at pitches out of the strike zone in an effort to generate more Hits. I have a feeling that even you know that's a bad idea.



Barry Bonds hit in the leadoff slot for the first portion of his career. Absolutely understands the value of not swinging at Balls because he doesn't swing at them. Waits for his pitch. Creams it.

Rickey Henderson was the most destructive leadoff hitter of all time not because he was fast- but because he combined a high OBP with a high SLG from that slot and supplemented that with exceptional functional speed. If Henderson wouldn't have stolen base one, he'd still have been the most prolific leadoff hitter in history. Heck, he finished in the top 10 in his league in OBP SIXTEEN seasons.

Henderson led the American League in OPS in 1990. Won the AL MVP because of it. Finished in the top 10 in OPS four times during his career. You'd have had him hitting cleanup, because that's where power hitters hit according to you.

Joe Morgan doesn't understand the value of OBP in the leadoff slot even though he hit right behind Pete Rose. The funny thing is that Rose rarely stole bases. Yet now you're arguing about what lineup slots are "supposed" to be while citing Pete Rose and denigrating OBP while not understanding what Pete Rose's actual value was to the Big Red Machine. That value was obviously his ability to not make Outs, because he didn't steal bases. And, in fact, Rose didn't steal a single base in 1975. Not one. Zero. I think the Reds won something that year...and the next when Rose swiped all of nine bags.

Pete Rose was not a traditional "template" leadoff hitter.

In short, you could have switched Morgan and Rose in the lineup and you would have had the same and possibly a better result. And yes, 1975 is the year that Joe Morgan posted a .466 OBP and a .508 SLG from the 2-slot and led the National League in OPS. He led the NL in OPS in 1976 as well. That's a slot you'd try to position as a slot that needs to just "move runners along" and create "productive outs" to get runners in scoring position. Yet, Sparky Anderson didn't do that. He positioned a high OBP/high SLG hitter right up front.

And Sparky did that because he understood that the #2 slot in the order isn't "designed" for anything. Either that or it was a happy accident caused by a perception that Morgan's speed would be useful that high in the lineup. We'll never know. But it is what it is. High OBP. High SLG. #2 Slot.

Certainly you can understand the value of not making Outs and acquiring a ton of Bases high in the lineup, right?

BTW, the reason you wouldn't want Ramon Ortiz higher than the 9th slot is that he makes a ton of Outs. That's called "OBP"- the same thing you've been railing on. You're making my argument for me and have been since your first post.



There's no choice? Then why don't all hitters Walk at the same rate- even similar BA hitters?

The obvious reason is that being able to tell balls from strikes IS a choice. And it's a skill. The most skilled players in that area also tend to be the most productive. See: Dunn, Adam.



Nope. Umpires define their own strike zones. A player's height has little to do with it in this day and age. But you have hit on something. Dunn gets a lot of Ballls well below the knees called as Strikes simply because he's a tall guy. So if you want to make a point that Dunn gets a lot of pitches out of the strike zone called as Strikes, that's a good point. It also explains a few of his K's.

Steel = :pimp:

CapnMorgan & ForFreel = :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

I loathe this thread.

kyred14
06-20-2005, 12:59 AM
Doesn't matter. Some of the best coaches were and are players who weren't very good. A player's knowledge is not dictated by the level of their production.



Uh-huh. McGwire was a draw. However, you've positioned that clearing McGwire's salary was the reason the Cardinals were able to go out and get players- even years after he was off the books. That's not an accurate statement. McGwire was never a salary albatross to the Cardinals. He never made all that much money.



No. It just discredits the portion of your post in which you attempt to dissect a situational dynamic you don't really understand.



The acquisitions of Larry Walker and Mark Mulder had nothing to do with Mark McGwire's salary.



Not make Outs and acquire Bases. That's what.



Adam Dunn 2004- Close and Late: .250 BA/.400OBP/.563 SLG

You have nothing to complain about there.



You're entirely welcome.



Samwise Gamgee was larger than Frodo Baggins.

Doesn't make Samwise big now, does it?



What's better- a Single or a Double?

Who scores more Runs- teams with higher BA's or teams with higher OBP's?

Answer both of those and you'll know what you need to. And yes, the answers are obvious.



Hits generate bases and there's nothing wrong with Hits. But swinging at Balls isn't a good way to get Hits.

You seem to still think that the choice is "Hit or Walk". It's not. It's "Walk or Out". Your philosophy means that hitters should swing at pitches out of the strike zone in an effort to generate more Hits. I have a feeling that even you know that's a bad idea.



Barry Bonds hit in the leadoff slot for the first portion of his career. Absolutely understands the value of not swinging at Balls because he doesn't swing at them. Waits for his pitch. Creams it.

Rickey Henderson was the most destructive leadoff hitter of all time not because he was fast- but because he combined a high OBP with a high SLG from that slot and supplemented that with exceptional functional speed. If Henderson wouldn't have stolen base one, he'd still have been the most prolific leadoff hitter in history. Heck, he finished in the top 10 in his league in OBP SIXTEEN seasons.

Henderson led the American League in OPS in 1990. Won the AL MVP because of it. Finished in the top 10 in OPS four times during his career. You'd have had him hitting cleanup, because that's where power hitters hit according to you.

Joe Morgan doesn't understand the value of OBP in the leadoff slot even though he hit right behind Pete Rose. The funny thing is that Rose rarely stole bases. Yet now you're arguing about what lineup slots are "supposed" to be while citing Pete Rose and denigrating OBP while not understanding what Pete Rose's actual value was to the Big Red Machine. That value was obviously his ability to not make Outs, because he didn't steal bases. And, in fact, Rose didn't steal a single base in 1975. Not one. Zero. I think the Reds won something that year...and the next when Rose swiped all of nine bags.

Pete Rose was not a traditional "template" leadoff hitter.

In short, you could have switched Morgan and Rose in the lineup and you would have had the same and possibly a better result. And yes, 1975 is the year that Joe Morgan posted a .466 OBP and a .508 SLG from the 2-slot and led the National League in OPS. He led the NL in OPS in 1976 as well. That's a slot you'd try to position as a slot that needs to just "move runners along" and create "productive outs" to get runners in scoring position. Yet, Sparky Anderson didn't do that. He positioned a high OBP/high SLG hitter right up front.

And Sparky did that because he understood that the #2 slot in the order isn't "designed" for anything. Either that or it was a happy accident caused by a perception that Morgan's speed would be useful that high in the lineup. We'll never know. But it is what it is. High OBP. High SLG. #2 Slot.

Certainly you can understand the value of not making Outs and acquiring a ton of Bases high in the lineup, right?

BTW, the reason you wouldn't want Ramon Ortiz higher than the 9th slot is that he makes a ton of Outs. That's called "OBP"- the same thing you've been railing on. You're making my argument for me and have been since your first post.



There's no choice? Then why don't all hitters Walk at the same rate- even similar BA hitters?

The obvious reason is that being able to tell balls from strikes IS a choice. And it's a skill. The most skilled players in that area also tend to be the most productive. See: Dunn, Adam.



Nope. Umpires define their own strike zones. A player's height has little to do with it in this day and age. But you have hit on something. Dunn gets a lot of Ballls well below the knees called as Strikes simply because he's a tall guy. So if you want to make a point that Dunn gets a lot of pitches out of the strike zone called as Strikes, that's a good point. It also explains a few of his K's.

i couldn't even respond after a beatdown like that. they might not even come back now. ;)

oh wait, trolls never leave :bang:

SteelSD
06-20-2005, 01:16 AM
i couldn't even respond after a beatdown like that. they might not even come back now. ;)

oh wait, trolls never leave :bang:

Well, let's be careful there, bud.

It's possible that forfreelin2004 just needs education. That happens all the time and I wouldn't quite slap a "troll" label on him.

He's obviously got strong opinions, but most folks- when faced with logic- will eventually acquiesce.

kyred14
06-20-2005, 01:55 AM
Well, let's be careful there, bud.

It's possible that forfreelin2004 just needs education. That happens all the time and I wouldn't quite slap a "troll" label on him.

He's obviously got strong opinions, but most folks- when faced with logic- will eventually acquiesce.

maybe it was a little strong. i guess i shouldn't judge. i didn't even know what OPS was before i started reading redszone. :redface:

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 02:09 AM
First off, I would like to apologize to those I might have frustrated! But you have to admit this bored would probably be pretty mundane if eveyone had the same opinions.

1. You can say that George Foster and Pete Rose have just as much baseball knowledge as anyone else that knows the game. That's fine. But I refuse to believe that. Plain and Simple, baseball players who have played the game with success obviously know how to get it done so there is no reason for me to believe that these do not have credible things to say. Even if it comes to things I don't even agree with. I judge things based on experience. I know little of any of your credentials as far as experience. All I have seen from most is stats followed by an "I told you so."

2.I understand I positioned it that way. That's they way it looked by like many others on this thread and I'm sure all of you thing the same about me is your not reading it! Your seeing what I wrote. See that it does not approve of your thinking and immediately jumping to conclusions. Half of you even post quotes from my own posts that contradict what ya think I wrote.

3.Your right that part of the post was totally false. Edmonds was signed before Mcgwire retired.

4.Again (see 2) You quoted me saying Mcgwire's salary dump had to do with the reason St. Lous was good but I clearly say in point 2 that: ."Of course he didn't make A-Rod money but because he was a spectacle in his homerun race. More fans came out, more merchandise was bought, and the Cardinals were on the map nationally to steal some signficance from cities like New York and Chicago. " Not because of the salary but because of the spectacle he brough to MLB in St. Lous during the Hr race.

5.A Complete player is getting on base and not making outs!!!!!! I said the words complete. Baseball players also play defense. Pujols had a great arm and great footwork down at 1st. He also can hit those TERRIBLE singles (.Avg) and hit for power. He is also able to make his team better by his performance. Something that Dunn does too I believe. Today for example, but Dunn is not consistent enough to make his team better by his performance everyday. I believe Pujols his because of his professional demeanor. I don't see Pujols in the press complaning about chairs and buddies. Dunn does have a OBP and he can walk and hit HR good but that is not a complete player. That is a good power hitter. Not too much Dunn isn't exacly swift of foot.
6. How many of those games are just Late when the game is out of reach? And how can you judge when is Close and Late? What inning consitutes the end just the 9th or the 7-9? What constitutes close? with RISP late? With the Reds behind by two runs or four? Another great stat that people and everyone backing you up takes at face value. Taking stats at face value constitues a lack of experience. Kind of like everyone's buddy DanO. As far as I know, never played the game at least at the ML level and saw stats. (Milton 15 wins) Theres a difference between knowing the game and playing the averages (stats).

7. :)

8. Lord of the Rings is a little different than broadcasters. Just because Marty doesn't speak well of your boy Dunn, doesn't mean he's worse than George Grande. You judge play by play announcers on their announcing not their baseball knowledge. Marty will flat out tell you and he did while talking to miley yesterday "He knows next to nothing on pitching." And thus, you can discredit the man because he probably doesn't know much about OBP and Walks and such as well. But forgive me for thinking highly of a HOF broadcaster. He must be doing something right these past years. :)

9.Of course high OBP results in more runs scored! I'm not stubborn enough to argue that. All breathe a sigh of relief. However, I go back to my main focus that I'm trying to get people to understand. Why do the Reds have the 8th best OBP in the league and are not the 8th best team in the league? OBVIOUSLY, the pitching. Why not trade some of are high on OBP guys like Dunn for more contact hitters with less OBP like a Sean Casey who is able to hit well with RISP and not strikeout in situations where the last needed is a non productive out like a strikeout. Sean is able to get wood on the ball more than Dunn and thus able to put pressure on the defense to stop that runner from 3rd to score. Granted, Casey is 80% unlikely to drive a 500 foot HR like Dunn which would 2 runs instead of just one. But the odds are against it compared to Casey's ability to just drive the one in. Case in point, today's game. Dunn hit a 3 run homer. That's great couldn't be happier for him. But, it took another 3 run homer just to win the game. It would make much more sense to have good pitching and average OBP. Example, the Chicago White Sox. They are 22nd in the league in OBP but are one of the better teams in the majors at this point. If we had good pitching and great longball OBP like we have now I would be all for it. But we can't have our cake and eat it too being a small market to mid market club. So why not sacrifice the amount of longs balls to a small ball, defense, and pitching mentality? The odds just seem to better that way.

10. I never said my philosophy was Hit or Walk. I never even said I had a philosophy. Nor did I say the batter should swing at pitches out of the strike zone to generate a hit. I never even said Walks were hurtful to a team. Your right they can always help. However, like I have stated before a hit is better than a strikeout anyday just like a walk is better than strikeout. I would much rather see Dunn turn his usual strikeout atbats into bloops than see him K looking or missing completely. You will never convince me that a K is as good as any other out. You are looking at things in general terms. Failing to look at the specifics like Sac Flys, Bloop Hits when a hitter just gets a piece or break a bat getting sawed off, or the much important Sac Bunt.

11.Barry Bonds was a leadoff hitter becaue he had speed and your right a solid OBP. But the dude was on roids an almost certainity in most people's minds. The guy's head got bigger as each year went by. Not just egotistically, but physically! He didn't become a 30 HR guy consistently until he arrive in SF. There he became a legit force to be reckoned with. A leadoff hitter much have speed because he is asked to get on base anyway possible. Dunn does have a high OBP but he will not be able to generate SB nor will he able to make contact enough to have a chance to get on base. He also has a high OBP because he does have a "good eye." But cut those "good eye" walks in half and the other half is when he is pitched around or intentionally walked. This is done because pitchers fear he may turn a 3 run lead into a tie game in a matter of moments. Dunn will not be able to get up in these situations anymore since he will be batting behind the likes of the pitcher and the 8 batter. They will be forced to pitch to him so the amount of walks is thus cut in half and his OBP is that much lower. Plus, with his inability to make contact many times look at .AVG for that one or when he does put the ball into play he is average at best. Not who I want leading off games sorry.

Rickey Henderson is a different type of ballplayer than Dunn. Dunn carries Rickey's bags when it comes to infield hits because he was one of the fastest men in the league and the best base stealer arguably of all time.

The Pete Rose thing was before my time. I will give you that. Solid point. But that is one case example. But you can also make a case that the 1 and 2 hitters jobs are both to get on base and steal bases. People always say leave Felipe in the 2 hole and Freel in the 1 hole. So far it seemed to work out pretty well. The problem with the hitting is the failure of the big boppers to hit runners in crucial situations with RISP. Again, it is obvious to me that there is a big difference between the 4th 5th and 6th holes than 1st and second slots.
Case in point, you said "Certainly you can understand the value of not making Outs and acquiring a ton of Bases high in the lineup, right?" Thus, you are basically saying the top of the lineup is designed that way. Designed may be a bad word though. I'll go with "defined" that way.

12. There is a choice if you choose to swing or not. But there isn't much of choice if you are pitched strikes. You have to hit balls in the strike zone to be productive otherwise you are out on three looking. If Adam Dunn allows himself to be pitched around as he should, than many thanks to him. What bothers me is his inability to come through when it is most needed. Today, he came through. Much kudos to Dunn. Finally I agree with on walks being a good stat to judge a skilled player on. I've never said Adam isn't a skilled ballplayer. But you have made me out to be his worst enemy.

13. Putting words in my mouth I never said that's what the rules say.......... it's common knowledge that a smaller player has a smaller strike zone than a taller player to any umpire. It is his discretion to deem the pitch a ball or a strike, but an umpire judges the strikezone based on the player at the plate. A high ball to Ryan Freel is a strike to Adam Dunn and so on. I doubt any umpire would have the same strike zone with both players. But you seem to know that, so whatever ya think sir. Dunn seems to take more pitches outside than low because I think he never looks to drive the ball the other way. A mark of a good hitter the ability to his the opposite field as well as pull.

Patrick Bateman
06-20-2005, 02:16 AM
You seem to understand more than we thought but are still missing some important concepts that I really don't want to get into right now.

But wow that was one long winded post. :eek:

Ron Madden
06-20-2005, 02:21 AM
Please let this thread die. :(

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 02:21 AM
Look.

I have been reading this thread for a while. I've tried to hold it in. But, I just can't do it. It's bursting out of me.

Forfreelin'. Captainmorgan. You are annoying. Try listening to someone for a change. I respect that you have differeing opinions. I do not respect that you will not listen to reason, and do the equivalent of plugging your ears, rocking back and forth, and yelling "LALALALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU!". You are dragging down the quality of this board. Now I see the virtue of having a Reds Live.

Thank you.


End post.

Just because Adam Dunn is your favorite player on the Reds doesn't mean my opinions are wrong. They are just that opinions. I like Adam Dunn. I wish I could hit the ball as hard and as far as he does. He's not my favorite player though and neither is Sean Casey. I wouldn't mind getting rid of Casey for the frat boy like comradrie he brings to this team. Frat Boys (believe me I used to be one) don't call each other out. If you get absolutely sloshed and go to the hospital, it's not wrong it's cool and a good story to tell the pledges for years to come. Similar to the Reds really nobody gets on anyone Dave Miley included. A true teammate calls you out when necessary. Sean as a person and hitter he's great, but in the clubhouse he's better at giving hugs.

Lastly, I'm sorry I hurt your opinion of this board. It's not like I'm not reading everything or simply discouraging everything people are replying too. If you actually read my posts instead of just realizing I'm disagreeing on the whole, you might learn something too. That people have different opinions about baseball. Some people prefer the longball and OBP to AVG and "small ball." I prefer obviously the latter to the former. While my fellow posters agree with the latter. That's fine I don't have a problem with that. I respect their patience and willingness to express their opinions. But it's hard to display my opinions when the ball club does score alot of runs but might be arguably the worst ballclub in team history. My main reason I like small ball is because it gives you a chance to win ball games against any pitcher.
Lastly TC, if you don't want to read my posts that's fine. But this board does lose credibility when I'm knocked Rep points for not agreeing with someone. Doesn't make much sense kinda spits on why this great forum was made for in the first place. I, like you, have gotten frustrated with the my fellow debators and i have lashed out with some immature name calling. But as I look at your post, I realize how immature that was of me. I assure you it won't happen again.

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 02:24 AM
maybe it was a little strong. i guess i shouldn't judge. i didn't even know what OPS was before i started reading redszone. :redface:

I know what OBP is but not OPS. Guess that makes me a bum too! No hard feeling, kyred14 we all are a little frustrated. But hey on the upside I think I just made the longest post ever. :beerme: Not that it was my intention to do so, I just have alot to say. I wasn't raised with knowledge of cars, tools, fishing, or hunting like alot of young kids. Just baseball and haha of course to write for long periods of times. I guess you could say I wasn't taught to condense either! ;)

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 02:26 AM
Ryan Freel is a pest and so am I. But I know I didn't win anything nor was I trying too. It's just nice to get different opinions compare them to mine and so on. I'm sorry if I frustrated anyone.

wheels
06-20-2005, 11:22 AM
Is this thread over now?

KronoRed
06-20-2005, 11:33 AM
I'll pay a mod to close this thread.

wheels
06-20-2005, 11:34 AM
Ten bucks.

Willy
06-20-2005, 11:43 AM
I tried to get tis thread closed 5 pages ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am sorry this turned into a pissing match, this tread had a mind of its own. All I wanted to say is Dunn's tradeablity(if that'a a word) is at it all time high and it will only go down as e makes more money.

BTW I'm surprise that a post that has over a 1,000 views and I didn't get one postitive or negative comment. I guess because this post went far off topic.

KearnsyEars
06-20-2005, 12:08 PM
I think it should stay until dunn goes......13 years.

TeamBoone
06-20-2005, 02:10 PM
Well, let's be careful there, bud.

It's possible that forfreelin2004 just needs education. That happens all the time and I wouldn't quite slap a "troll" label on him.

He's obviously got strong opinions, but most folks- when faced with logic- will eventually acquiesce.

I agree with you, Steel... that's what he needs. However, he does not seem to want it.

Hooligan
06-20-2005, 02:11 PM
Would anyone trade Dunn to the Yankees for Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, and Colter Bean?

TeamBoone
06-20-2005, 02:16 PM
Just because Adam Dunn is your favorite player on the Reds doesn't mean my opinions are wrong. They are just that opinions.

Favorite player or not, the numbers do not lie.

I can't stand Barry Bonds, but he has been one heck of a baseball player (I think). Based on his steroid history, I'm not so sure anymore. But! Regardless of that, his stats are mind-boggling.

I also love Adam Dunn... and thank heaven his stats tell me I'm not crazy to defend him.

You can not like Adam Dunn all you want, but please don't say/argue that he's a bad baseball player because you'll be blown out of the water every single time.

Again, the numbers do not lie. Please try to learn from them rather than trying to dispute them... it won't wash.

TeamBoone
06-20-2005, 02:17 PM
Why close the thread? There's an education trying to happen here.

wheels
06-20-2005, 02:18 PM
Would anyone trade Dunn to the Yankees for Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, and Colter Bean?

No!

Good Lord Sweet Jesus no.

What about that deal makes sense to you?

Good Lord.

wheels
06-20-2005, 02:19 PM
Why close the thread? There's an education trying to happen here.

It's only an education if people are listening.

Not so sure it's happening in this thread.

OnBaseMachine
06-20-2005, 02:24 PM
Would anyone trade Dunn to the Yankees for Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, and Colter Bean?

No!

1. Cano has decent power, but no plate discipline whatsoever.
2. Wang is already 25, and has a poor K rate(5bb/16 k 26 ip at Columbus, 15 bb/22 k in 56.2 ip with the Yanks)
3. Colter Bean (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Colter%20Bean&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&did=milb&pid=430841) is a 28 year old reliever still stuck in Triple-A! Albeit his stats look nice, but he has never thrown a pitch in the majors.

I don't want to trade Dunn at all, but if I do, I want a deal that will blow me away.

Hooligan
06-20-2005, 02:25 PM
No!

Good Lord Sweet Jesus no.

What about that deal makes sense to you?

Good Lord.

Nothing sounds good to me about it, I have a neighbor from NY and he says thats what he heard a week or so ago. If the Reds trade Dunn they need to get a boat load of talent in return.

wheels
06-20-2005, 02:34 PM
Nothing sounds good to me about it, I have a neighbor from NY and he says thats what he heard a week or so ago. If the Reds trade Dunn they need to get a boat load of talent in return.

The only reason those names get thrown out is because the Yankees have no one else even remotely valuable to deal.

So...A Yankee fan takes a shine to a guy like Dunn, and throws those two or three names out there.

Happened with Kearns earlier in the year.

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 04:27 PM
If you think I'm not being educated here, your wrong. I know nothing about OPS. I still don't know what that even means. Furthmore, if everyone was actually reading I wasn't ever saying Dunn was a bad baseball player. Again, your seeing I'm not displaying him in a postive light and immeditely taking offense to it. If this thread needed to be closed than the mods would have closed it last night. I respected SteelSD opinions and gave him mine back in return. I didn't refute everything he said. Just like in any debate, people watching it take place, make guesses on who actually won the thing, but it doesn't mean, come election time, that person will be elected. Half the time the people thinking a certain person won the debate is based on a personal bias. That is, the persons deciding who won the debate were already pulling for one person before the debate ever began.

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 04:31 PM
However since I did take Wily Mo's thread and run with it I will attempt to give you SOME FACTS.

Regarding the Yankee trade:

I happened to be at the two Dragons game last Thursday night. My father's best friend went along and ran into a old chum of is. He was a Yankee scout. Take that anyway ya want too, it could mean next to nothing reagarding a deal. But it could aslo mean the Yanks are interested in getting a few prospects from Dayton in combonation with a Reds player. The scout would not spill why he was actually there or what player he was looking at. But he was using a pitching chart. Furthermore, the Yankee scout did say he was called on short notice to drive down from Pittsburgh to scout that same day.

RosieRed
06-20-2005, 04:51 PM
If you think I'm not being educated here, your wrong. I know nothing about OPS. I still don't know what that even means.

OPS: On-base percentage plus slugging percentage. You literally add OBP to SLG to get OPS. It's a very good measure of a hitter's ability, giving you a sense of how many times the player gets on base, and what kind of power the player has.

And just in case:

OBP: a measure of how often a batter gets to first base for any reason other than a fielding error or a fielder's choice.

SLG: measures a hitter's power. It is calculated as total bases divided by at-bats.

The higher the OPS, the better. And Dunn's OPS is way up there; currently he has the NINTH highest OPS in all of major league baseball.

The top 10 in OPS right now:
1. D Lee
2. B Roberts
3. A Rodriguez
4. B Abreu
5. C Delgado
6. A Pujols
7. M Tejada
8. N Johnson
9. A Dunn
10. M Teixeira

Not to shabby.

Sean Casey, by the way, ranks 72nd.

pedro
06-20-2005, 05:08 PM
To add to Rosie's post.....

Of the two components that make up OPS (OBP and SLG), OBP is considered to be the more valuable of the two and IIRC some statiticians have come up with an adjusted OPS number that reflects the greater value of OBP vs. SLG.

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 05:11 PM
Thanks you two. I appreciate it. :)

WVRed
06-20-2005, 05:23 PM
Now to explain Dunn even further.

When considering OPS and many of the sabrematric formulas, consider this fact. Batting average is meaningless.

It has been argued many times on this board that Dunn, because of his ability to draw walks, should hit either second or third. That IMO is the way to go, rather than having him hit 6th every night. If Miley would understand this, Dunn would blossom full throttle.

pedro
06-20-2005, 05:32 PM
Now to explain Dunn even further.

When considering OPS and many of the sabrematric formulas, consider this fact. Batting average is meaningless.

It has been argued many times on this board that Dunn, because of his ability to draw walks, should hit either second or third. That IMO is the way to go, rather than having him hit 6th every night. If Miley would understand this, Dunn would blossom full throttle.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that batting average is meaningless.

But I would agree that as a stand alone indicator of a players worth it is not very valuable.

KearnsyEars
06-20-2005, 06:30 PM
sign dunn to a ltc....please Obie, dont be a moron.

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 10:17 PM
I'm just gonna shut my mouth and pretend I didn't see the setence batting avg was meaningless. All of you feel free to thank me

Ravenlord
06-20-2005, 10:42 PM
I'm just gonna shut my mouth and pretend I didn't see the setence batting avg was meaningless. All of you feel free to thank meBatting Average is meaningless.

do you believe that a single=double=triple=home run?

do you believe that an out>walk or hit-by-pitch?

Cyclone792
06-20-2005, 10:43 PM
I'm just gonna shut my mouth and pretend I didn't see the setence batting avg was meaningless. All of you feel free to thank me

Batting average is a small component out of several things that encompasses a player's total value. No, it isn't meaningless, but it's far less important than the common perception.

forfreelin04
06-21-2005, 12:20 AM
Batting average is a small component out of several things that encompasses a player's total value. No, it isn't meaningless, but it's far less important than the common perception.

Thank you cyclone. I've never said that .Avg. justifies a hitter's ability to be a great hitter totally. If I would have to make a guess I would include AVG, OBP, and .AVG with RISP with OPS coming in fourth since I just learned about it today. Other dude, Batting average is meaningless because it doesn't include walks right?

I'm all up for a good high OBP but walks are meaningless too if you can't find someone to drive you in. Unless you have great speed, chances are you are not going to move from first on your own. Hence Dunn in the 6th and 7th hole. I do not think there is one stat that can really justify the mark of a great baseball player. Great baseball players to me are complete ballplayers, offensively and definsively. Not to mention, they must have the highest skill of all to come through when it is supremely needed.

SteelSD
06-21-2005, 02:52 AM
Thank you cyclone. I've never said that .Avg. justifies a hitter's ability to be a great hitter totally. If I would have to make a guess I would include AVG, OBP, and .AVG with RISP with OPS coming in fourth since I just learned about it today. Other dude, Batting average is meaningless because it doesn't include walks right?

Batting Average measures what it measures. It's accurate to a fault in that respect. BA tells you how many Hits a player has per At-Bat.

But that doesn't mean BA is relevent in determining performance.

Let's take a look at the listing of statistics you gave above:

National League 2005:

Runs Scored per Game Rank:

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Atlanta Braves

Batting Average Rank

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Florida Marlins
3. San Francisco Giants
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Philadelphia Phillies

On Base Percentage (OBP) Rank

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Florida Marlins
4. San Francisco Giants
5. LA Dodgers

Slugging Percentage (SLG) Rank

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Florida Marlins

On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS) Rank

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Florida Marlins

Now, take a look at those lists. Of them all, the only one that has as many as four teams in the top five in Runs Scored per Game is the OPS list.

Now, you might look at that list and think that the Braves are in the top 5 in Runs Scored offensively so they must have a great RISP Batting Average (i.e. they make the "most" of their opportunities). Sorry. Only one NL team (Milwaukee) has put up a worse BA with RISP than has Atlanta (.232).

The Reds have scored the 2nd most Runs in the NL with the 11th best Batting Average. How? They have the fifth highest OBP and the 2nd highest SLG in the league.

The Cubs, Marlins, and Giants rank 1st through 3rd in NL Batting Average this season, but rank 4th, 8th, and 10th in Runs Scored per Game. That's the way it works.

Why do the Marlins rank 5th in OPS but 8th in RS per Game? Because they give up a ton of back-end Outs (.63 SB%, 34 Sac Bunts <2nd in the NL>).

Frank Robinson's Nationals are also worse than you'd think despite Robinson's obsession with smallball. They're 15th in Runs Scored per Game despite being 9th in OBP. Problem is that they have a horrible SB success rate (48%) combined with no power (.403 SLG) and lead the league in Sac Bunts. Robinson tries to push square pegs into round holes constantly and comes up short.


I'm all up for a good high OBP but walks are meaningless too if you can't find someone to drive you in. Unless you have great speed, chances are you are not going to move from first on your own. Hence Dunn in the 6th and 7th hole. I do not think there is one stat that can really justify the mark of a great baseball player. Great baseball players to me are complete ballplayers, offensively and definsively. Not to mention, they must have the highest skill of all to come through when it is supremely needed.

Not making an Out is never meaningless. It puts pressure on a pitcher. If the Walk is acquired with none on, it makes the hurler pitch from the stretch. I makes the next hitter see more strikes. It makes the pitcher throw more pitches. It moves runners in front of the player acquiring the Walk without needing to waste an Out. Walks means that the pitcher was trying to fool the hitter but the hitter would have none of it. Walks are victories and baserunners are gold.

That being said, if you're looking the the "highest skill of all to come through when it's supremely needed"...

Adam Dunn- 2002 to 2005:

None On: .242 BA/.345 OBP/.510 SLG
Runners On: .253 BA/.426 OBP/.489 SLG

Now, Dunn has raised his game with Runners on base since 2002. I know that, over a longer stretch of time those numbers will move to the mean and Dunn will produce a Batting Average similar to his overall numbers. But that OBP will continue to be higher than the norm and it will continue to move Runners up without making Outs and his SLG% will continue to move Runners further than a singles hitter would.

BTW, how do you know that a Runner on 2nd with 2 Outs is more important than a Runner on 1st with none Out situation? Just wondering because RISP numbers could be drawn from a 1-1 tie in the 6th or a 7-1 blowout in the 9th.

There isn't anyone yet who can, over time, demonstrate that RISP Batting Average is significantly higher for anyone versus their norms. That leads to the only current logical conclusion that, if "clutch hitting" from a BA perspective can't be demonstrated, then it doesn't exist (the Santa Claus principle). However, you may see hitters post higher OBP numbers with Runners On versus the norm. That's a skill and, over time, it means more Runs for their team.

Nor can anyone demonstrate that overall RISP performance is a more "pressure-filled" scenario than many others that occur without a Runner on 2nd or 3rd. It appears that you're assigning absolute relevence to situations that may or may not apply as "meaningful" but entirely disregarding other situations simply because there's not a Baserunner standing 180+ feet from Home Plate. That's simply inconsistent reasoning.

And finally, here's a Playoff line for a player. You tell me if he's "clutch" or if he's a choker...

172 At-Bats: .238 BA/.291 OBP/.378 SLG

Ron Madden
06-21-2005, 04:16 AM
Everything has two sides...

Most things have a top and bottom, a right side and a left side, an inside and an outside. We will always have light and dark or wet and dry, right or wrong.

It's my opinion that most fans now days judge Players as Good or Bad without looking at all sides of the arguement.

We can go by what we hear on radio (sometimes they really give us Play by Play) what see on TV or read from beat writers just killin' time and learn nothing.
Or we can read and learn from other Fans.

forfreelin04
06-21-2005, 05:50 AM
Well he could be either Steel of course. Some of the worst hitters come through at the most important times and some of the best hitters don't.

Your making great points and I agree with them wholeheartedly. It's hard to disagree with facts. OPS is the closest stat to the most important offensive team stat runs scored. You've sold me on the importance of OPS, but if .Avg is able to prove the likelihood of a player getting a hit in a single at bat isn't that helpful to a pitcher in determining his ability? Granted, walks are something a pitcher attempts to avoid as well but that his based on his ability to "control" where the ball is pitched. How many times do you see the pitcher make a great pitch and still get burned by a bloop or a broken bat single? It is the same thing as a walk because the runner still gets on base. But a walk more often than not is based on the pitcher enabling the hitter to do so. The hitter does have a choice to swing at a ball out of the strike zone, but his choices are deflated if that pitch is a strike. Likely you would rather have a hitter at the plate like Dunn who would not chase a pitch out of the zone like a Wily Mo. But I would prefer a Sean Casey type a high .Avg hitter who could still get on base due entirely to his own ability to hit a good pitch. Dunn on the other hand tends to swing and miss or look at good pitches. His high number of K's would prove this.

Also, you might possibly be thinking you would rather have Dunn at the plate because his OBP is much higher. The statistics would lead you to believe he would be more apt to getting on base than Sean Casey in any given situation. But he wouldn't be more apt than Sean to get on base against a left handed pitcher. LHP is something Dunn faces many times late in games, especially when the game is sometimes hanging in the balance or a big inning might be stirring for the Reds. Although, I put some blame on Miley for lack of confidence in Dunn to get the job done against lefties, but he might just be playing the OBP card too.

Dunn Against LHP OBP .278
Casey Againt LHP OBP .388

That's a .110 difference in OBP

Against Righties
Dunn has a .427 OBP
Casey has a .354 OBP

That's only a .073 difference

Add the two PCT of OBP together:
Dunn .705 OBP
Casey .742 OBP

Cyclone792
06-21-2005, 07:22 AM
Thank you cyclone. I've never said that .Avg. justifies a hitter's ability to be a great hitter totally. If I would have to make a guess I would include AVG, OBP, and .AVG with RISP with OPS coming in fourth since I just learned about it today. Other dude, Batting average is meaningless because it doesn't include walks right?

I didn't want to get your hopes up or anything, but the long version of my previous post on the value of BA was summed up by Steel quite well. Like Steel said, batting average measures what it measures, and what it measures is far less important than the common perception of most casual fans.


Dunn Against LHP OBP .278
Casey Againt LHP OBP .388

That's a .110 difference in OBP

Against Righties
Dunn has a .427 OBP
Casey has a .354 OBP

That's only a .073 difference

Add the two PCT of OBP together:
Dunn .705 OBP
Casey .742 OBP

Except for the fact that hitters face right-handed pitchers much more often than left-handed pitchers. The logic above well... doesn't work at all. If you're trying to combine their OBP against LHP and RHP on the season, for example, then just look at their overall OBP for this season. Not only that, but if you're trying to glean anything from looking at a player's hitting statistics vs. LHP through 40 percent of one season, then you're probably going to run into a small sample size problem.

Stat splits combining 2002-2005 are readily available, and will be much more accurate than the stat splits for solely 2005. This is Dunn and Casey vs. LHP in OBP/SLG and OPS since the beginning of 2002:

Dunn: .363/.483 for an OPS of .846
Casey: .351/.431 for an OPS of .782

In the more accurate version of OPS (1.2*OBP)+SLG, Dunn sits at .919 vs. LHP. In that same more accurate version of OPS, Casey is .852 vs. LHP.

kyred14
06-21-2005, 08:21 AM
Dunn Against LHP OBP .278
Casey Againt LHP OBP .388

That's a .110 difference in OBP

Against Righties
Dunn has a .427 OBP
Casey has a .354 OBP

That's only a .073 difference

Add the two PCT of OBP together:
Dunn .705 OBP
Casey .742 OBP

i'm sorry but that makes no sense. if you add lefties and righties together, you get the overall numbers. unless someone has developed a third arm. dunn has a .398 OBP, casey has a .373 OBP. not to mention dunn's SLG% is .143 higher. so dunn gets on base more often, and with more power.

WVRedsFan
06-21-2005, 09:58 AM
Batting Average measures what it measures. It's accurate to a fault in that respect. BA tells you how many Hits a player has per At-Bat.

But that doesn't mean BA is relevent in determining performance.

Thank you, thank you, thank you, Steel.

Not to appear dumb, but even though I had bought into all of this a couple of years ago, I don't think I fully understood the concept. Now, I do. It just goes to prove that you can teach an old dog new tricks. :eek:

forfreelin04
06-21-2005, 05:09 PM
i'm sorry but that makes no sense. if you add lefties and righties together, you get the overall numbers. unless someone has developed a third arm. dunn has a .398 OBP, casey has a .373 OBP. not to mention dunn's SLG% is .143 higher. so dunn gets on base more often, and with more power.

Sure it does KY. OBP piles the number of opportunties Dunn has against any pitcher regardless of that pitcher throwing right or left handed. I know it's hard to wrap your head around. I was dumbfounded by it too. But all major league hitters will face righties more than lefties in a given season. Thus, Dunn's pct. against righties goes in to OBP at a greater rate than lefties since he faces them much less.

Broken Down Example:

Dunn faces Pedro goes 2 for 4 in On base opportunities.
Dunn faces Wells goes 0 for 4 in on base opportunities.
Dunn faces Clement goes 3 for 3 in on base opportunities.

Casey faces the same same three pitchers.
Goes 0 for 4 against Pedro
2 for 3 versus Wells
2 for 4 versus Clement

Over all OBP in three games: Dunn .500 and Casey .363

RHP: Casey .250 Dunn .714

LHP: Casey .666, Dunn .000

Combine them: .910 Casey .714 Dunn

Just to make sure there wasn't any funny business I made sure Dunn had one less opportunity than Casey. Not to leave out he reached base one more time than Casey. Dunn had a higher chance for .OBP to beat Casey in a combonation of righty and lefty OBP's.

As far as OPS goes Dunn does have a higher OPS than Casey when I'm caculating the same thing as I just did only with OPS.
Dunn 1.73
Casey 1.61

Dunn does have a higher OPS because of his vast amount of slg pct over a guy like Casey who hits very few HR. If one decided to justify that OPS is a mark of the best hitter out of the two Dunn would surely win.

Since everyone likes to get on me for comparing players with different skill sets..........
Pena 2.148
Dunn 1.73

Granted Pena hits lefties great and hits righties average, but since Dunn bats against lefties so terribly Pena comes out on top. Even though Dunn hits great against righties.

Feel free to dismiss this as garbage but OBP and OPS do not compile situations. They compile the chances any given player will get on base in ANY situation. In more situations, Dunn and Casey will face right handed pitching hence Dunn's higher OBP in that particular column.

pedro
06-21-2005, 05:24 PM
Sure it does KY. OBP piles the number of opportunties Dunn has against any pitcher regardless of that pitcher throwing right or left handed. I know it's hard to wrap your head around. I was dumbfounded by it too. But all major league hitters will face righties more than lefties in a given season. Thus, Dunn's pct. against righties goes in to OBP at a greater rate than lefties since he faces them much less.

Broken Down Example:

Dunn faces Pedro goes 2 for 4 in On base opportunities.
Dunn faces Wells goes 0 for 4 in on base opportunities.
Dunn faces Clement goes 3 for 3 in on base opportunities.

Casey faces the same same three pitchers.
Goes 0 for 4 against Pedro
2 for 3 versus Wells
2 for 4 versus Clement

Over all OBP in three games: Dunn .500 and Casey .363

RHP: Casey .250 Dunn .714

LHP: Casey .666, Dunn .000

Combine them: .910 Casey .714 Dunn

Just to make sure there wasn't any funny business I made sure Dunn had one less opportunity than Casey. Not to leave out he reached base one more time than Casey. Dunn had a higher chance for .OBP to beat Casey in a combonation of righty and lefty OBP's.

As far as OPS goes Dunn does have a higher OPS than Casey when I'm caculating the same thing as I just did only with OPS.
Dunn 1.73
Casey 1.61

Dunn does have a higher OPS because of his vast amount of slg pct over a guy like Casey who hits very few HR. If one decided to justify that OPS is a mark of the best hitter out of the two Dunn would surely win.

Since everyone likes to get on me for comparing players with different skill sets..........
Pena 2.148
Dunn 1.73

Granted Pena hits lefties great and hits righties average, but since Dunn bats against lefties so terribly Pena comes out on top. Even though Dunn hits great against righties.

Feel free to dismiss this as garbage but OBP and OPS do not compile situations. They compile the chances any given player will get on base in ANY situation. In more situations, Dunn and Casey will face right handed pitching hence Dunn's higher OBP in that particular column.

I think you need to consider a larger sample size. Yes, Dunn has been pretty bad against lefties this year but that is not so true over his entire career. It may be a trend, it may be an abberation, it may be function of his slot in the lineup and the batters coming up after him, but I don't think you can make assumptions like this based on 1/3 of a season.

Johnny Footstool
06-21-2005, 05:24 PM
Combine them: .910 Casey .714 Dunn

What's the point of combining them, though? Where's the logic in placing higher value on fewer opportunities?

ochre
06-21-2005, 05:26 PM
I think you need to consider a larger sample size. Yes, Dunn has been pretty bad against lefties this year but that is not so true over his entire career. It may be a trend, it may be an abberation, it may be function of his slot in the lineup and the batters coming up after him, but I don't think you can make assumptions like this based on 1/3 of a season.
it may be because he has been benched regularly against lefty starters, hindering his "return to career norms" vs. lefties?

ochre
06-21-2005, 05:28 PM
What's the point of combining them, though? Where's the logic in placing higher value on fewer opportunities?
just think, if Casey did a little better against Martinez he could have been on base 110% of his plate appearances for those games.

forfreelin04
06-21-2005, 05:32 PM
I didn't want to get your hopes up or anything, but the long version of my previous post on the value of BA was summed up by Steel quite well. Like Steel said, batting average measures what it measures, and what it measures is far less important than the common perception of most casual fans.



Except for the fact that hitters face right-handed pitchers much more often than left-handed pitchers. The logic above well... doesn't work at all. If you're trying to combine their OBP against LHP and RHP on the season, for example, then just look at their overall OBP for this season. Not only that, but if you're trying to glean anything from looking at a player's hitting statistics vs. LHP through 40 percent of one season, then you're probably going to run into a small sample size problem.

Stat splits combining 2002-2005 are readily available, and will be much more accurate than the stat splits for solely 2005. This is Dunn and Casey vs. LHP in OBP/SLG and OPS since the beginning of 2002:

Dunn: .363/.483 for an OPS of .846
Casey: .351/.431 for an OPS of .782

In the more accurate version of OPS (1.2*OBP)+SLG, Dunn sits at .919 vs. LHP. In that same more accurate version of OPS, Casey is .852 vs. LHP.

Very accurate Cyclone.

However, I was comparing OBP not OPS. Two entirely different things when SLG is half of the factor in OPS. Dunn will always beat Casey in OPS because Casey is a contact hitter with very little power and Dunn is a power hitter with a good eye but lacks contact. Granted the season isn't at the All Star break yet and Dunn could hit better against lefties giving him the edge over Casey in combining the splits, but so far Casey has him.

In the past two seasons 2004 and 2003

2004
Lefties
Dunn .362
Casey .372

Righties
Dunn .399
Casey .385

2003

Lefties
Casey .367
Dunn .333

Righties
Dunn .363
Casey .342

2004
Dunn .761
Casey .757 Yes he won by a whole .004 of a point!

2003
Dunn .696
Casey .709 Casey wins by .013

Casey has a better split OBP in the past two seasons then Dunn by .009.

If OBP is so important to everyone why does it show me that overall Dunn is better at getting on base, but in combination with left handed pitching he isn't better than Sean Casey? A guy that rarely walks?

SteelSD
06-21-2005, 05:34 PM
Broken Down Example:

Dunn faces Pedro goes 2 for 4 in On base opportunities.
Dunn faces Wells goes 0 for 4 in on base opportunities.
Dunn faces Clement goes 3 for 3 in on base opportunities.

Casey faces the same same three pitchers.
Goes 0 for 4 against Pedro
2 for 3 versus Wells
2 for 4 versus Clement

Over all OBP in three games: Dunn .500 and Casey .363

RHP: Casey .250 Dunn .714

LHP: Casey .666, Dunn .000

Combine them: .910 Casey .714 Dunn

Just a couple problems with that.

27% of Casey's Plate Appearances in your "example" are against LHP. 36% of Dunn's PA in your example are against LHP. You've set your "test" up to show Dunn in a negative light. That's the definition of "funny business".

The next one is that, by simply adding LHP OBP to RHP OBP, you're behaving as if 27% and 36% are 50% and 50%. That's simply not the case and it invalidates any point you're trying to make.

In short, you're doing it wrong.

Oh, and OBP doesn't track the probability of a hitter not making an Out. It's a historical record of non-Out event rate. Given enough PA, we can use it to reasonably project future performance over time, but not to determine the exact probability of a hitter creating a certain event in a singular Plate Appearance.

Look, if you want to learn more about the statistics and how they're calculated, how they work, what they're good for, etc., just feel free to ask. Right now it appears that you're trying to kind of "talk them out" in your posts, but you're not coming up with anything productive.

reds44
06-21-2005, 05:34 PM
Some of you guys say that Dunn will eat up to much money next year. Well next year he will make somewhere around 8 millon dollars, if you trade Caseys 8.5 millon dollar salary you can use that to sign Dunn, that way you solve the 4 outfielders problem and get rid of Casey's salary. So it would all even out.

Red Leader
06-21-2005, 05:37 PM
If OBP is so important to everyone why does it show me that overall Dunn is better at getting on base, but in combination with left handed pitching he isn't better than Sean Casey? A guy that rarely walks?

Because you're not using it correctly???

forfreelin04
06-21-2005, 05:47 PM
What's the point of combining them, though? Where's the logic in placing higher value on fewer opportunities?

Because everyone forgets situations. Dunn is going to face alot of left handed relief pitching if he continues to struggle against them. However, Casey slumps against neither. He doesn't do better than Dunn overall, but in example like those I have given it doesn't necessarily tell the whole story like you'd think it would. It's like telling me who the murderer was, but not telling me who he murdered or maybe not telling me it was self defense. Those details are sometimes even more important than who the murderer was. Same can be said for Dunn, he looks like he is great at OBP which he is but compiling in his poor OBP against lefties make him look not as great. Dunn will be benched against left handed hitting giving Casey more of an opportunity to do well but also to struggle. So in regards to opportunity Casey would actually get more chances but also a chance to hurt is OBP. If Dunn is continually batting against righties and not lefties as much, he has a much better chance of putting good numbers of overall. It will be interesting to see if Narron will continue where Miley left off in regards to playing Dunn against lefties.

westofyou
06-21-2005, 05:57 PM
Because everyone forgets situations.

Nope, these folks don't

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa2005.php


National League Adjusted Equivalent Average Leaders
Name Team-Lg Pos Out PA EQA EQR RAR RAP RARP
DERREK LEE CHI-N 1B 157. 297. 0.380 70.1 50.2 37.4 46.1
CARLOS DELGADO FLA-N 1B 161. 280. 0.349 58.0 37.6 24.4 33.4
BOB ABREU PHI-N RF 174. 309. 0.339 58.2 36.1 24.1 33.2
ALBERT PUJOLS STL-N 1B 178. 309. 0.335 58.0 35.4 20.9 30.8
NICK JOHNSON WAS-N 1B 168. 292. 0.331 52.9 31.6 17.8 27.2
MIGUEL CABRERA FLA-N LF 168. 274. 0.325 50.7 29.4 18.2 26.9
BRIAN GILES SD_-N RF 173. 293. 0.324 51.8 29.8 18.1 27.1
ADAM DUNN CIN-N LF 173. 282. 0.317 49.0 27.1 15.2 24.2
LUIS CASTILLO FLA-N 2B 115. 196. 0.315 32.0 17.4 11.2 16.7
JASON BAY PIT-N LF 181. 295. 0.314 50.1 27.2 15.6 24.8
J.D. DREW LA_-N RF 169. 280. 0.312 45.9 24.5 13.5 22.1
MOISES ALOU SF_-N RF 133. 224. 0.311 35.9 19.0 10.1 16.9
PAT BURRELL PHI-N LF 157. 262. 0.311 42.4 22.5 12.1 20.1
JEFF KENT LA_-N 2B 179. 285. 0.310 47.8 25.1 15.3 24.0
JIM EDMONDS STL-N CF 141. 231. 0.308 37.2 19.3 10.9 17.9
DAVID WRIGHT NY_-N 3B 165. 267. 0.308 43.6 22.7 12.6 20.9
ROB MACKOWIAK PIT-N 3B 131. 214. 0.304 33.5 16.8 9.2 15.6
REGGIE SANDERS STL-N LF 143. 221. 0.303 36.0 17.9 8.1 15.5
CHASE UTLEY PHI-N 2B 133. 211. 0.302 33.4 16.6 8.7 15.3
RYAN KLESKO SD_-N LF 165. 261. 0.300 40.6 19.7 8.5 17.1

Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is equal to .260. EqA is derived from REqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA.

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Furthermore on the aforementioned additions in this thread

The first, unstated, law of elementary arithmetic is: never divide A by B unless there is a damn good reason for dividing A by B.

forfreelin04
06-21-2005, 06:09 PM
Good stat to have BUT....
What about left handed pitching?

forfreelin04
06-21-2005, 06:14 PM
Yeah the example sucked your right. But I was trying to explain how if you added the OBP pct Dunn and Casey have against LHP and RHP together you would come up with a different number than OBP against all pitchers.

pedro
06-21-2005, 06:20 PM
Yeah the example sucked your right. But I was trying to explain how if you added the OBP pct Dunn and Casey have against LHP and RHP together you would come up with a different number than OBP against all pitchers.

Math doesn't work that way.

forfreelin04
06-21-2005, 10:24 PM
Try it yourself

tempe85
06-22-2005, 03:45 AM
I think Dunn being traded to the Angels could really be a possibility (I hope so.... I'm an Angels fan :D ).

Here's the factors:

1. Angels have money they aren't afraid to spend (or take on extra contract)

2. The Angels have a terrific minor league system. One that could be the best in all of the majors (they have the quality prospects the Reds deserve to get in return).

3. The Angels have been looking to move Jarrod Washburn who would be a nice addition to the Reds (won't happen if Escobar keeps getting hurt though). Washburn + Prospects for Dunn could be a possibility.

4. Angels are in desperate need of a DH/LF (so they can DH Garret Anderson some games while playing him in left during others).



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One last note though. If I were a Reds fan I would most definently not want Dunn traded. The guy is quite simply the face of the Reds right now. However if he was traded I really feel the Angels would be the organization that would fit (for the Reds needs and Angels needs).