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RFS62
06-20-2005, 12:44 PM
I was reading some of the "Trade Dunn Now" thread, and just before my ears started bleeding, I thought I noticed someone say that George Foster had commented that (paraphrasing) Dunn's job isn't to take walks, his job is to drive in runs.

If I got that wrong, I apologize, but there ain't no way I'm going back into that thread.

This really ties into a thought that has been rattling around in my head for a while and I've been meaning to write about.

Foster is right.

Now, he's not right because walks are bad or any of the Dunn bashing crap I read here all the time.

He's right within the context of the "system" that Miley is trying to use.

Miley's lineup construction speaks volumes about his theories. He's looking for a contact hitter in the two spot, someone who can put the ball in play on the right side and move a runner up. He's looking for a big guy in the 5 or 6 spot to drive in runners.

Within the "offense" he's trying to run, those are his criteria for lineup construction.

And make no mistake, a lot of the baseball world subscribes to this style. It's an offensive philosophy, just like in football, a scheme.

The problem is that his personnel is ill-suited to play this offense. By sheer luck and random chance, he has the components of a great Earl Weaver style attack, but he either can't or won't see it.

It's an offensive philosophy, make no mistake about it. But it's about like running a T formation instead of a pro-set in the NFL.

He's got one of the most devestating onbase machines in modern baseball history, and he's horribly miscast in his role.

A good coach plays to the strengths of his personnel. A good coach isn't afraid of change.

Miley is neither.

smith288
06-20-2005, 12:57 PM
You are right. Dunn is a mixed bag of OBP via the walk or via the HR. Putting him in a position that puts him on base doesnt mean much when those behind him cant drive him in.

He should be 2 or 3 and let Casey do the driving in (if he learns to lay off the shoestring balls).

flyer85
06-20-2005, 01:05 PM
You are right. Dunn is a mixed bag of OBP via the walk or via the HR. Putting him in a position that puts him on base doesnt mean much when those behind him cant drive him in.

He should be 2 or 3 and let Casey do the driving in (if he learns to lay off the shoestring balls).Dunn is 5th in the league in RS. Almost impossible for someone batting 5/6 in the lineup. Miley just has no clue how to actually use him.

rdiersin
06-20-2005, 01:11 PM
I was reading some of the "Trade Dunn Now" thread, and just before my ears started bleeding, I thought I noticed someone say that George Foster had commented that (paraphrasing) Dunn's job isn't to take walks, his job is to drive in runs.

If I got that wrong, I apologize, but there ain't no way I'm going back into that thread.

This really ties into a thought that has been rattling around in my head for a while and I've been meaning to write about.

Foster is right.

Now, he's not right because walks are bad or any of the Dunn bashing crap I read here all the time.

He's right within the context of the "system" that Miley is trying to use.

Miley's lineup construction speaks volumes about his theories. He's looking for a contact hitter in the two spot, someone who can put the ball in play on the right side and move a runner up. He's looking for a big guy in the 5 or 6 spot to drive in runners.

Within the "offense" he's trying to run, those are his criteria for lineup construction.

And make no mistake, a lot of the baseball world subscribes to this style. It's an offensive philosophy, just like in football, a scheme.

The problem is that his personnel is ill-suited to play this offense. By sheer luck and random chance, he has the components of a great Earl Weaver style attack, but he either can't or won't see it.

It's an offensive philosophy, make no mistake about it. But it's about like running a T formation instead of a pro-set in the NFL.

He's got one of the most devestating onbase machines in modern baseball history, and he's horribly miscast in his role.

A good coach plays to the strengths of his personnel. A good coach isn't afraid of change.

Miley is neither.

Great post RFS, dead on.

MartyFan
06-20-2005, 01:13 PM
agreed!

I heard Fosters comments the other night when he was on with Tracey Jones after the "game"....He was kind but pretty direct and noted that Casey/Randa are the most expendable ad potential trade pieces he sees on the team...He also was pretty critical or at the very least very open to questioning the current management and coaching staff...He was not derogatory but he said he was sad to see the fans of this organization suffer through the product that is on the field right now.

Johnny Footstool
06-20-2005, 01:17 PM
Miley's lineup construction speaks volumes about his theories. He's looking for a contact hitter in the two spot, someone who can put the ball in play on the right side and move a runner up. He's looking for a big guy in the 5 or 6 spot to drive in runners.

In other words, he's managing like it's 1983.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 01:18 PM
I echo sentiments of others about your post (good one). Morgan said the same thing last night on espn sunday night. He was talking about each player has a job to do in the batting order etc.. etc.....and we've been through all that..............

However, one distinction, everyone wants to blame Miley and let Dunn off the hook all the time either because of hitting coaches, spot in batting order, noone behind him, noone in front of him, he's young etc... etc....

Star players play the cards they are dealt. Dunn could have made himself a better candidate (even for an old school manager) for a #2 or #3 hole batting slot the past few years by working on bat control, raising avg. a little, cutting strikeouts etc. .etc....he has either chosen or has been unable to make any of those adjustments. Miley is not the only manager in baseball who would have trouble justifying to himself putting dunn in 2 or 3 hole. But for the record, I too have advocated giving Dunn a shot in #2 hole to see what would happen............

RFS62
06-20-2005, 01:20 PM
In other words, he's managing like it's 1983.


Yes. Or 1993. Or 2003. A vast majority of the baseball world still goes by the proverbial "book".

MartyFan
06-20-2005, 01:24 PM
Put him in the #3 hole we have other guys who can bat behind him to protect him and then drive him in...move Casey down to the 6 spot and it may cut down on his double play problem.

reds44
06-20-2005, 01:25 PM
Dunn is fifth in Run scored, what does that tell you about Mileys lineups?

ochre
06-20-2005, 01:25 PM
It is a lot less complicated than the book makes it seem. Those that make the fewest outs on offense tend to score the most runs. The micro-events that the 'book' builds its rules around are not even valid for a significant portion of the macro of a game, let alone a season. A 2 hitter doesn't bat second every time up. Occasionally a 2 hitter bats last and unless that is a game winning plate event, that is what he needs to avoid (making an out).

flyer85
06-20-2005, 01:27 PM
Dunn is fifth in Run scored, what does that tell you about Mileys lineups?Nothing other than the fact he would be first if the lineup was constructed properly.

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 01:29 PM
Nothing other than the fact he would be first if the lineup was constructed properly.
Exactly.

RFS62
06-20-2005, 01:31 PM
It is a lot less complicated than the book makes it seem. Those that make the fewest outs on offense tend to score the most runs. The micro-events that the 'book' builds its rules around are not even valid for a significant portion of the macro of a game, let alone a season. A 2 hitter doesn't bat second every time up. Occasionally a 2 hitter bats last and unless that is a game winning plate event, that is what he needs to avoid (making an out).


No argument from me on any of that. But the book is so ingrained in the psyche of organized baseball that challenging it's basic principles is often seen as sacreligious.

Look at the arguments that have gone on here for years.

Johnny Footstool
06-20-2005, 01:32 PM
However, one distinction, everyone wants to blame Miley and let Dunn off the hook all the time

As RFS62 wrote, Miley is to blame for not being able to identify and optimize Dunn's skill set.

flyer85
06-20-2005, 01:33 PM
As RFS62 wrote, Miley is to blame for not being able to identify and optimize Dunn's skill set.Exactly. Miley has no idea how to use him to maximize what Dunn does best.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 01:34 PM
It is a lot less complicated than the book makes it seem. Those that make the fewest outs on offense tend to score the most runs. The micro-events that the 'book' builds its rules around are not even valid for a significant portion of the macro of a game, let alone a season. A 2 hitter doesn't bat second every time up. Occasionally a 2 hitter bats last and unless that is a game winning plate event, that is what he needs to avoid (making an out).
a two hitter doesn't bat second every time up but he does have 2 or 3 of the team's best hitters coming up after him EVERY TIME up.......that is where batting order is critical.

And a 6 spot hitter has typically the team's 3 worst hitters upcoming EVERY TIME up......

KronoRed
06-20-2005, 01:34 PM
Dunn is the player he is, asking him to change would be a bad thing, like Bob Boone telling him to swing more and him struggling mightily in 2003.

Miley can put him in the right spot in the order, Miley for whatever reason, won't do it.

RFS62
06-20-2005, 01:35 PM
As RFS62 wrote, Miley is to blame for not being able to identify and optimize Dunn's skill set.

Actually, other than batting him 8th, there isn't much he could do that's WORSE for Dunn than he's already done.

Imagine the pitches he'd be seeing in the two spot.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 01:35 PM
Exactly. Miley has no idea how to use him to maximize what Dunn does best.Or on the flip side Dunn is totally unwilling or unable to make some of the basic adjustments which would make him easier to manage, more versatile, easier to fit into a system. (for any manager miley included)

Tony Cloninger
06-20-2005, 01:38 PM
Managers used to have a hard time figuring out where to bat Bobby Bonds too....beacuse he K'd a lot....they did not want him to be batting first, after a while. Even though he would take a walk, especially in his first 5-6 years and he had that 30-50 SB speed. Dunn does not have that type of speed that Bonds has but he hits with more power...but lower BA. I think 4th should be his spot....with Griffey 5th or 3rd.

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 01:39 PM
Star players play the cards they are dealt. Dunn could have made himself a better candidate (even for an old school manager) for a #2 or #3 hole batting slot the past few years by working on bat control, raising avg. a little, cutting strikeouts etc. .etc....he has either chosen or has been unable to make any of those adjustments. Miley is not the only manager in baseball who would have trouble justifying to himself putting dunn in 2 or 3 hole. But for the record, I too have advocated giving Dunn a shot in #2 hole to see what would happen............
Competent managers properly play the cards they are dealt. It may not be Miley's fault that O'Brien has signed duds such as Milton to be the ace of the pitching staff, but a competent manager should know how to fill out a lineup card to maximize the chances of scoring enough runs to win.
Dunn has an on-base percentage of .398, 11th in the NL and second on the Reds to Freel's .406. Dunn has a slugging percentage of .565, 5th in the NL and the best on the Reds. Dunn has an OPS of .963, 6th in the NL and the best on the Reds.
Dunn isn't perfect, but he has easily done enough to warrant batting him second or third in the Reds lineup.
If I suddenly was given the task of rebuilding the Reds, while I'd fire O'Brien and Gullett and a lot of other people in my first minute on the job, the very first guy I'd fire, in a nano-second, would be Miley.

Johnny Footstool
06-20-2005, 01:40 PM
Or on the flip side Dunn is totally unwilling or unable to make some of the basic adjustments which would make him easier to manage, more versatile, easier to fit into a system. (for any manager miley included)

And if my Buick was a Corvette, I'd have a lot more fun driving it.

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 01:41 PM
It is such a simple concept: Get your best hitters up to the plate as much as possible. Why Miley can't grasp that is amazing.

flyer85
06-20-2005, 01:42 PM
Does the smart man put the round peg in the round hole or try to hammer the round peg in the square hole?

Seems to me that asking someone to try to do something that they do not excel at is as sure a recipe for failure as you can find.

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 01:43 PM
And if my Buick was a Corvette, I'd have a lot more fun driving it.
Give Miley a Corvette and he'd try to go off-roading with it in the snow, and would then blame the Corvette when he got stuck. It would also be the Corvette's fault if Miley couldn't get a family of five in the car.

RFS62
06-20-2005, 01:45 PM
The most basic fundamental of coaching in any sport is to assess your personnel and implement a system that takes advantage of the cards you've been dealt.

If you don't have a guy who can run the baseline, you don't play a 1-3-1.

SteelSD
06-20-2005, 01:55 PM
Or on the flip side Dunn is totally unwilling or unable to make some of the basic adjustments which would make him easier to manage, more versatile, easier to fit into a system. (for any manager miley included)

Let's say that Dave Miley put Ryan Freel in the cleanup slot in the lineup.

You gonna blame Freel for not "adjusting" his game in order to acquire more extra-base hits and HR because that's what the cleanup slot "requires"?

Of course not.

Competent managers construct lineups around the skills of the players they have. They don't push square pegs into round holes repeatedly. And if they do, the players are not to blame for it.

Dave Miley is the only person on the planet dumb enough to place someone with the skill set of Adam Dunn in the 6th slot in the lineup.

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 01:56 PM
Does the smart man put the round peg in the round hole or try to hammer the round peg in the square hole?

Seems to me that asking someone to try to do something that they do not excel at is as sure a recipe for failure as you can find.
Could you use that hammer on a certain Reds manager? :bang:

ochre
06-20-2005, 01:57 PM
a two hitter doesn't bat second every time up but he does have 2 or 3 of the team's best hitters coming up after him EVERY TIME up.......that is where batting order is critical.

And a 6 spot hitter has typically the team's 3 worst hitters upcoming EVERY TIME up......
would you rather your best hitters bat with 2 on and no outs, or a guy on second and one out?

westofyou
06-20-2005, 02:01 PM
Dave Miley is the only person on the planet dumb enough to place someone with the skill set of Adam Dunn in the 6th slot in the lineup.

Oh yeah?

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/images/history/top100/pr_ozark.gif

flyer85
06-20-2005, 02:03 PM
Oh yeah?

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/images/history/top100/pr_ozark.gif

Danny Ozark? Refresh my memory.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 02:06 PM
would you rather your best hitters bat with 2 on and no outs, or a guy on second and one out?
I'd rather my best hitter(s) bat with 2 on and no outs. If they get a hit they probably drive in a run or if they take a walk they load bases with no outs.

With a guy on second and one out, likely to be pitched carefully.
- - - - - - - - - -

That is where Dunn could have helped himself the last few years. His year in and year out struggles with RISP/situational hitting, high strikeout rate, relatively low batting average have allowed it to remain in question whether or not he IS in fact one of the "best hitters" on team. IF he could have improved in those areas it would have become a no-brainer to displace a casey, griffey, kearns, pena - any of them to make room for him in 3 or 4 spot.

SteelSD
06-20-2005, 02:09 PM
Ah. Ozark. Schmidt.

Ozark still alive?

flyer85
06-20-2005, 02:12 PM
Ah. Ozark. Schmidt.

Ozark still alive?where did he bat Schmidt back in the mid 70's?

westofyou
06-20-2005, 02:13 PM
Danny Ozark? Refresh my memory.

Mike Schmidt had over 1000 ab's in the 6th or lower spot and 6700 in the 3rd or 4th slot.

1975 he had this line

.249 .367 .523

and 375 ab's 6th or lower.

flyer85
06-20-2005, 02:16 PM
Wow that Mike Schmidt guy wasn't very good. He struck out 180 times one season.

westofyou
06-20-2005, 02:18 PM
Wow that Mike Schmidt guy wasn't very good. He struck out 180 times one season.

That was 104 more than the league average... Dunn's was 94.

flyer85
06-20-2005, 02:19 PM
That was 104 more than the league average... Dunn's was 94.no wonder Schmidt hit 6th and 7th. Dunn should be happy Miley doesn't move him down.

IowaRed
06-20-2005, 02:27 PM
Mike Schmidt had over 1000 ab's in the 6th or lower spot and 6700 in the 3rd or 4th slot.

1975 he had this line

.249 .367 .523

and 375 ab's 6th or lower.

Wait, let me get this straight. You're saying that Schmidt should have been hitting ahead of Unser and Montanez? :)

SteelSD
06-20-2005, 02:30 PM
I'd rather my best hitter(s) bat with 2 on and no outs. If they get a hit they probably drive in a run or if they take a walk they load bases with no outs.

With a guy on second and one out, likely to be pitched carefully.
- - - - - - - - - -

That is where Dunn could have helped himself the last few years. His year in and year out struggles with RISP/situational hitting, high strikeout rate, relatively low batting average have allowed it to remain in question whether or not he IS in fact one of the "best hitters" on team. IF he could have improved in those areas it would have become a no-brainer to displace a casey, griffey, kearns, pena - any of them to make room for him in 3 or 4 spot.

Adam Dunn's Slugging Percentage renders your entire argument moot. Always has.

You continue to think that Singles, Doubles, Triples, and Home Runs are all equal in value. They're not. What you haven't figured out is that Dunn's ability to drive runners further (including himself) when NOT in scoring position trumps any RISP BA argument you can provide. His ability to identify balls and strikes means that he can move more runners over without contact more than anyone on the team can by using Outs as a Runner advancement tool.

Until you realize that the game of baseball doesn't live in a RISP box, you'll continue to forward illogical positions you can't support.

smith288
06-20-2005, 02:32 PM
Or on the flip side Dunn is totally unwilling or unable to make some of the basic adjustments which would make him easier to manage, more versatile, easier to fit into a system. (for any manager miley included)

I have not seen someone so routinely wrong on a variety of subjects regarding the Reds than you are.

Its almost like you look for the general concesus on the board and just go opposite out of fun....

RFS62
06-20-2005, 02:33 PM
Its almost like you look for the general concesus on the board and just go opposite ....



http://sportsmed.starwave.com/media/pg2/2001/0621/photo/george_i.jpg

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 02:34 PM
Mike Schmidt had over 1000 ab's in the 6th or lower spot and 6700 in the 3rd or 4th slot.

1975 he had this line

.249 .367 .523

and 375 ab's 6th or lower.
Yeah, but he had a sacrifice fly that season. ;)

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 03:39 PM
I have not seen someone so routinely wrong on a variety of subjects regarding the Reds than you are.

Its almost like you look for the general concesus on the board and just go opposite out of fun.... actually, I've never seen a bigger group of statheads in one place in my whole life if you want to drop to an insult level.
I wonder if a good portion of you have ever even played organized whiffle ball. Stats support and reveal things but those are actual players/humans out there. Noone is rolling dice or using a random number generator to determine outcomes of games.

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 03:43 PM
actually, I've never seen a bigger group of statheads in one place in my whole life if you want to drop to an insult level.
I wonder if a good portion of you have ever even played organized whiffle ball. Stats support and reveal things but those are actual players/humans out there. Noone is rolling dice or using a random number generator to determine outcomes of games.
John Adams said that "Facts are stubborn things." Yeah, those messy old facts and stats can sure get in the way of a good argument. ;)

BRM
06-20-2005, 03:44 PM
I wonder if a good portion of you have ever even played organized whiffle ball.

It always seems to come down to this. Accusations that stat guys have obviously never played the game and they must not actually watch games either. This has become a broken record. Just because Steel, Ricardo, woy and the rest of the stat gang bombard you with FACTS doesn't mean they've never played or watched the game of baseball.

flyer85
06-20-2005, 03:49 PM
doesn't mean they've never played or watched the game of baseball.baseball, i thought we were talking about basa-ball. Oops, never mind.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 03:50 PM
If "It always seems to come down to this" chances are there is something to it. Or no, it's a statistical "anomaly" right? It is just pure chance...a random event.

BRM
06-20-2005, 03:51 PM
If "It always seems to come down to this" chances are there is something to it. Or no, it's a statistical "anomaly" right? It is just pure chance...a random event.

I think it more represents someone "grasping at straws" after being proven wrong...again.

vic715
06-20-2005, 03:57 PM
Leadingoff is the perfect place for Dunn. He strikesout so much that you really don't want him in a position where he has to drive in runs. If I'm an opposing pitcher I'd almost pitch around guys to get to him.On the other hand he does walk a ton and he has better than average speed so if he can be 5th in the league in runs scored from the 6 hole thEn imagine what he can do leadingoff.
Just an opinion

ochre
06-20-2005, 03:58 PM
actually, I've never seen a bigger group of statheads in one place in my whole life if you want to drop to an insult level.
I wonder if a good portion of you have ever even played organized whiffle ball. Stats support and reveal things but those are actual players/humans out there. Noone is rolling dice or using a random number generator to determine outcomes of games.
when all else fails, ad hominem away.

It would appear, yet again, that we have reached an impasse.

We should try to find a premise that all parties can agree upon and embark upon our debate from there. It will be jolly good fun.

I'll start out with a foundation premise, other's can make suggestions about it, or provide a premise of their own. Once we all agree on a particular premise we can begin to make arguments, supported by fact and in the end our well founded inferences and deductions should allow us to reach a common ground.

My initial premise:
The goal in a baseball game (for simplicity sake defined as a regulation 9 inning game) is to score more runs than your opponent given 27 outs per side.

2001MUgrad
06-20-2005, 04:00 PM
So now it looks like everyone wants to bat Dunn second?? Why not first??

Does anyone here actually have any idea about Milley or or reasoning?? If so I would like to hear it. Everyone is quick to blame Miley for Dunn. Its like Foster says his job is NOT to WALK it is to drive runs in. He strikes out so much because he looks for a walk so often. The way Dunn chokes in the clutch it wouldn't surprise me if Miley doesn't bat him 5th and 6th to try to take some of the pressure off Dunn.

Dunn is going to be due a pretty big raise after this year. Does $7 or $8 + million a year need to go to a guy that Walks 1st, strikesout second, and homers third?? You can save a lot of money and go with a Freel type get a little less OB% and spend the rest on pitching if OB% is the main object and Dunn is a #2 hitter.

ochre
06-20-2005, 04:06 PM
I like hitting him second because we have a couple of high OBP options to bat in front of him (I'd lean toward Freel, with Lopez hitting third). The advantage to having Dunn hit second is that he will get a lot of opportunities to hit with a runner on (lets say 39% of the time). That's where his strong SLG comes into play. With a runner on teams tend to pitch carefully to Dunn, but with a solid hitter(s) behind him like Lopez, Griffey and Casey, they won't really want to walk him all that often, so he's going to see some fastballs.

Leading off, he will bat after the pitcher quite a bit. Not the ideal spot to take advantage of his power if you ask me.

wheels
06-20-2005, 04:06 PM
My initial premise:
The goal in a baseball game (for simplicity sake defined as a regulation 9 inning game) is to score more runs than your opponent given 27 outs per side.

Only at certain times because some runs are more valuable than others. :laugh:

BRM
06-20-2005, 04:07 PM
Only at certain times because some runs are more valuable than others. :laugh:

NO, not the old donut argument again!!! :laugh:

Joseph
06-20-2005, 04:08 PM
George Foster for Manager?

MartyFan
06-20-2005, 04:16 PM
George Foster for Manager?

Hardly....but I would be all about Tom Browning for pitching coach

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 04:27 PM
My initial premise:
The goal in a baseball game (for simplicity sake defined as a regulation 9 inning game) is to score more runs than your opponent given 27 outs per side.
You are going too fast! ;)

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 04:31 PM
Does $7 or $8 + million a year need to go to a guy that Walks 1st, strikesout second, and homers third??
I'll post these stats (one poster here may want to cover his eyes-stats are incoming!):
Dunn has an OBP of .398, 11th in the NL.
Dunn has a SPCT of .565, 5th in the NL.
Dunn has an OPS of .963, 6th in the NL.

Red Leader
06-20-2005, 04:33 PM
I'll post these stats (one poster here may want to cover his eyes-stats are incoming!):
Dunn has an OBP of .398, 11th in the NL.
Dunn has a SPCT of .565, 5th in the NL.
Dunn has an OPS of .963, 6th in the NL.

I bet Casey is higher in all 3 of those 'cuz he's a better hitter.

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 04:34 PM
I bet Casey is higher in all 3 of those 'cuz he's a better hitter.
Casey does lead Dunn in GIDPs.

TRF
06-20-2005, 04:35 PM
actually, I've never seen a bigger group of statheads in one place in my whole life if you want to drop to an insult level.
I wonder if a good portion of you have ever even played organized whiffle ball. Stats support and reveal things but those are actual players/humans out there. Noone is rolling dice or using a random number generator to determine outcomes of games.

Please address this post from SteelSD.


Adam Dunn's Slugging Percentage renders your entire argument moot. Always has.

You continue to think that Singles, Doubles, Triples, and Home Runs are all equal in value. They're not. What you haven't figured out is that Dunn's ability to drive runners further (including himself) when NOT in scoring position trumps any RISP BA argument you can provide. His ability to identify balls and strikes means that he can move more runners over without contact more than anyone on the team can by using Outs as a Runner advancement tool.

Until you realize that the game of baseball doesn't live in a RISP box, you'll continue to forward illogical positions you can't support.

Make your case. Make your case that sac flies are so important, and do it by telling us what the league average for sac flies was in 2004. Mention what the league high was (16) don't forget sac hits (24). Don't forget to mention who was 5th in the league in total bases last year (Dunn), and 6th in extra base hits (Dunn).

Cling to that runner in scoring position stuff, and forget runners on. because it don't count if there is a runner on first.



Dunn in 2004
none on: .266 .354 .605 .959
runners on: .265 .423 .527 .950
Dunn in 2005
none on: .232 .321 .543 .864
runners on: .263 .500 .575 1.075


Dunn has had a few struggles, but NOT with runners on. Reall he's never struggled with runners on. but you want to drill down to find anything you can bad about him, simply because he doesn't fit your description of what a ball player is.

BTW About a year ago, I got to hear Pete Rose speak at a fundraier for Boy Scouts. He said he wanted to manage the Reds again someday and mentioned the reds 2 best hitters Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 04:35 PM
I like hitting him second because we have a couple of high OBP options to bat in front of him (I'd lean toward Freel, with Lopez hitting third). The advantage to having Dunn hit second is that he will get a lot of opportunities to hit with a runner on (lets say 39% of the time). That's where his strong SLG comes into play. With a runner on teams tend to pitch carefully to Dunn, but with a solid hitter(s) behind him like Lopez, Griffey and Casey, they won't really want to walk him all that often, so he's going to see some fastballs.

Leading off, he will bat after the pitcher quite a bit. Not the ideal spot to take advantage of his power if you ask me.
#2 hole seems like the ideal spot for him. Sorry if my agreeing with you will cause a crisis of self-doubt :D That's the best place to take full advantage of his BBs. If he is challenged more in 2 hole and BBs fall greatly you can always re-evaluate.

I suspect though Miley just can't bring himself to do it. He sees the HRs, his physical size, the relatively low batting avg. (and the strikeouts) and just can't bring himself to do it. It's not like the Reds hit and run or sacrafice that much anyway to where his lack of bat control will be a great loss. He tried it in spring training with him.......why not in regular season??

Or maybe Dunn has fallen out of favor with Miley???....to the extent that he will keep him down in 6 hole as a result of his not addressing some of the issues in his game which maybe have been communicated to him that the coaches would like to see him address??.....(that is just speculation though as to why he won't try it......)

wheels
06-20-2005, 04:39 PM
#2 hole seems like the ideal spot for him. Sorry if my agreeing with you will cause a crisis of self-doubt :D That's the best place to take full advantage of his BBs. If he is challenged more in 2 hole and BBs fall greatly you can always re-evaluate.

I suspect though Miley just can't bring himself to do it. He sees the HRs, his physical size, the relatively low batting avg. (and the strikeouts) and just can't bring himself to do it. It's not like the Reds hit and run or sacrafice that much anyway to where his lack of bat control will be a great loss. He tried it in spring training with him.......why not in regular season??

Or maybe Dunn has fallen out of favor with Miley???....to the extent that he will keep him down in 6 hole as a result of his not addressing some of the issues in his game which maybe have been communicated to him that the coaches would like to see him address??.....(that is just speculation though as to why he won't try it......)

You think they're asking Adam Dunn to bunt or something?

What's "bat control" mean to you?

ochre
06-20-2005, 04:41 PM
You think they're asking Adam Dunn to bunt or something?

What's "bat control" mean to you?
Prophesizing here:
Hitting the ball to the right side to advance a runner with less than 2 outs.

Hitting the ball deep in the air with a runner on third and less than 2 outs.

et cetera.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 04:44 PM
TRF, In #2 hole, you can assign more value to OPB with RISP (extending inning) because you are "extending inning" for 2 or 3 of the team's best hitters. But not for a #6 hole hitter.

Look at a slightly more extreme example, Suppose he is batting #7 and has a .200 hitting LaRue or Aurilia batting 8th and then the pitcher's spot? A BB here is of far less relative value - here, you have a very likely out and an almost guranteed out up next. (you only get 3 outs an inning)

wheels
06-20-2005, 04:48 PM
Any time a player can extend an inning it's a good thing.

That's one less out he's made, and one more attempt at an out that the pitcher will have to make.

Doesn't matter where a guy's hitting in the lineup.

I suppose a walk to Dunn with less than two outs and a runner on second and third means nothing?

Doesn't it load the bases?

Doesn't it create an opportunity to score another run?

What was wrong with Adam's approach in yesterday's game with runners in scoring position?

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 04:48 PM
You think they're asking Adam Dunn to bunt or something?

What's "bat control" mean to you?
Bat control means to me the same thing it typically means to everyone else - able to use all fields, good 2 strike hitters, hit and run candidates, have ability to bunt.....etc...etc....Dunn does some things well (very well) but those aren't on the list.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 04:52 PM
Any time a player can extend an inning it's a good thing.

That's one less out he's made, and one more attempt at an out that the pitcher will have to make.

Doesn't matter where a guy's hitting in the lineup.

I suppose a walk to Dunn with less than two outs and a runner on second and third means nothing?

Doesn't it load the bases?

Doesn't it create an opportunity to score another run?

What was wrong with Adam's approach in yesterday's game with runners in scoring position?
You don't mean that. Why do you think they would "intentionally" walk a competent #8 hitter with men on second and third and 2 outs in the third inning? It extends the inning?..... They would do it because when they strikeout the pitcher in the next at bat nothing would be lost.

Giving up tactical walks is akin to BENDING but not BREAKING. Ok to bend just not break - and MUCH of that has to do with spot in batting order.

wheels
06-20-2005, 04:52 PM
Bat control means to me the same thing it typically means to everyone else - able to use all fields, good 2 strike hitters, hit and run candidates, have ability to bunt.....etc...etc....Dunn does some things well (very well) but those aren't on the list.

Dunn hits to the opposite field.

I'd never tell Dunn to bunt in a gazillion at bats.

I don't know Dunn's count numbers, but I gaurantee you that he does a yoeman's job of hitting with two strikes.

Yesterday he hit a three run homer on 3-2 count.

ochre
06-20-2005, 04:53 PM
#2 hole seems like the ideal spot for him. Sorry if my agreeing with you will cause a crisis of self-doubt :D That's the best place to take full advantage of his BBs. If he is challenged more in 2 hole and BBs fall greatly you can always re-evaluate.

I suspect though Miley just can't bring himself to do it. He sees the HRs, his physical size, the relatively low batting avg. (and the strikeouts) and just can't bring himself to do it. It's not like the Reds hit and run or sacrafice that much anyway to where his lack of bat control will be a great loss. He tried it in spring training with him.......why not in regular season??

Or maybe Dunn has fallen out of favor with Miley???....to the extent that he will keep him down in 6 hole as a result of his not addressing some of the issues in his game which maybe have been communicated to him that the coaches would like to see him address??.....(that is just speculation though as to why he won't try it......)
What place to you see in baseball for empirical evidence?

Should all personnel matters be decided based strictly upon sensory input?

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 04:56 PM
Dunn hits to the opposite field.
please, wheels check the hitting chart on mlb.com. And 90% of those left field dots on plot chart are weak popouts/flyouts indicative of a guy NOT able to use the opposite field effectively. Why do you think Bosox (and other teams) shift their infielders over to the right side for him?

again, he does things well but using whole field is not one of them. He's a dead pull hitter.

ochre
06-20-2005, 04:58 PM
Why do you think Bosox (and other teams) shift their infielders over to the right side for him?


because they plan on pounding him inside? With a lot of off-speed stuff?

westofyou
06-20-2005, 04:58 PM
Any time a player can extend an inning it's a good thing.

That also includes having good at bats, and IIRC Dunn's HR was a 10 pitch ab to a fresh pitcher and chances are it effected his approach to the batters after Dunn (one who also homered) Having good at bats is more important than being able to hit and run or lay down a bunt for most players that are sluggers, those are micro moments for players that are made to do that sort of stuff.

But a good at bat is something that applys to every at bat during every situation in every game of the season.

Not everyone can be a contact hitter not everyone can generate massive power numbers and insane pitch counts, I like to have both on my teams.

wheels
06-20-2005, 04:59 PM
You don't mean that. Why do you think they would "intentionally" walk a competent #8 hitter with men on second and third and 2 outs in the third inning? It extends the inning?..... They would do it because when they strikeout the pitcher in the next at bat nothing would be lost.

Giving up tactical walks is akin to BENDING but not BREAKING. Ok to bend just not break - and MUCH of that has to do with spot in batting order.

That's with TWO outs.

I'm talking about one out, and not to the number eight hitter.

Besides, I don't care if they walk my numer eight hitter to load the bases every time.

Avoiding outs is a good thing. Doesn't matter when it happens.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 04:59 PM
What place to you see in baseball for empirical evidence?

Should all personnel matters be decided based strictly upon sensory input? Of course not. I have used plenty of statistical arguments here and on mlb board. And I find many of the stats fascinating and useful.

Sometimes though, you have to deal with people/personalities/mixes of people etc.....yes "intuitive" more "subjective" things.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 05:01 PM
That's with TWO outs.

I'm talking about one out, and not to the number eight hitter.

Besides, I don't care if they walk my numer eight hitter to load the bases every time.

Avoiding outs is a good thing. Doesn't matter when it happens.
the same principle applies in less extreme circumstances....

A walk is always better than an out yes....but a BB has different relative values in different situations. That is why there is such a thing as an "intentional" BB. In those cases pitcher/defense has decided to GIVE the base (bend a little) because they see it as to their advantage. Bend a little but don't break.

ochre
06-20-2005, 05:02 PM
Here's his chart from ott 4(GABP):

wheels
06-20-2005, 05:02 PM
the same principle applies in less extreme circumstances....

A walk is always better than an out yes....but a BB has different relative values in different situations. That is why there is such a thing as an "intentional" BB. In those cases pitcher/defense has decided to GIVE the base (bend a little) because they see it as to their advantage. Bend a little but don't break.

I don't believe in intentionally walking anyone.

Most hitters make outs most of the time.

ochre
06-20-2005, 05:06 PM
Sometimes though, you have to deal with people/personalities/mixes of people etc.....yes "intuitive" more "subjective" things.
Even when the 'subjective' introduced by 'people/personalities/mixes of people etc' cause more errors, inaccuracies and bad decisions than logical inferences made from statistics that have proven to be accurate, reliable indicators?

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 05:17 PM
I thought most of you would agree with BadFundamentals in batting Dunn second in the lineup? It would give him more of a chance to succeed seeing better pitches hitting in front of players of his similiar homerun abilities. (Griff and Wily Mo)

Chip R
06-20-2005, 05:22 PM
That also includes having good at bats, and IIRC Dunn's HR was a 10 pitch ab to a fresh pitcher and chances are it effected his approach to the batters after Dunn (one who also homered) Having good at bats is more important than being able to hit and run or lay down a bunt for most players that are sluggers, those are micro moments for players that are made to do that sort of stuff.Not only that he was trying to go the other way on a few of those pitches. He hit a couple hard ones down the LF line.

creek14
06-20-2005, 05:24 PM
Hey, thanks for starting this thread, 62. :mooner: ;)

westofyou
06-20-2005, 05:27 PM
Not only that he was trying to go the other way on a few of those pitches. He hit a couple hard ones down the LF line.

True.. the big stiff was down 1-2 and he hacked a couple of fouls to the 3rd base side and then he worked it to 10 pitches and hit the crap out of it.

It was a great at bat.

A brief celebration was held and then reality set back in.

ochre
06-20-2005, 05:32 PM
Actually BF originally contended that Dunn should bat 6th:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30668
(He changed to endorsing batting Dunn second in this post: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=524782&postcount=53)

even just a few weeks ago, a poll was conducted with most choosing third in the order with second and fourth having equal votes as the second best choice.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36212

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 05:36 PM
I see ochre. BTW thanks for not closing the thread everyone despises. Now if you could only stop the frustrated ones from giving me neg rep points for not agreeing with 75% of the people on this board you would be my favorite fellow poster!

Back to the point, I would Dunn bat third as well in front of Griffey. Casey has been a lock in the 3 hole for much too long now. This team stinks and there is nothing wrong with changing things up a bit. Even if it is only to experiment.

Johnny Footstool
06-20-2005, 05:42 PM
Back to the point, I would Dunn bat third as well in front of Griffey. Casey has been a lock in the 3 hole for much too long now. This team stinks and there is nothing wrong with changing things up a bit. Even if it is only to experiment.

I agree.

vs. RHP:

Freel
Lopez
Dunn
Griffey
Pena
Casey
Randa
LaRue

vs LHP:
Freel
Randa
Dunn
Pena
Griffey
Casey
Lopez
Larue

RedsBaron
06-20-2005, 05:45 PM
:thumbup:
I agree.

vs. RHP:

Freel
Lopez
Dunn
Griffey
Pena
Casey
Randa
LaRue

vs LHP:
Freel
Randa
Dunn
Pena
Griffey
Casey
Lopez
Larue :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:

TRF
06-20-2005, 05:47 PM
TRF, In #2 hole, you can assign more value to OPB with RISP (extending inning) because you are "extending inning" for 2 or 3 of the team's best hitters. But not for a #6 hole hitter.

Look at a slightly more extreme example, Suppose he is batting #7 and has a .200 hitting LaRue or Aurilia batting 8th and then the pitcher's spot? A BB here is of far less relative value - here, you have a very likely out and an almost guranteed out up next. (you only get 3 outs an inning)

Adam Dunn is this team's best hitter, and had FeLo not emerged the way he has, I'd say the 2 hole would be a good spot for him, get him all the PA's you can. Since FeLo has become the freak Stormy predicted, I'll take AD at the three position.

Adam Dunn is the best, most productive hitter on the team known as the Cincinnati Reds, and is top 5 in the NL. period.

ochre
06-20-2005, 05:53 PM
I see ochre. BTW thanks for not closing the thread everyone despises. Now if you could only stop the frustrated ones from giving me neg rep points for not agreeing with 75% of the people on this board you would be my favorite fellow poster!

its not so much that they are rep'ing you because they don't agree with you. Its your approach. People expressing their opinion is fine and a well respected tradition. The problem arises when people use their opinion as definitive statements and will not back down when other's refute their definitive statements with facts.

forfreelin04
06-20-2005, 06:15 PM
Totally agreed, but where did I say Dunn wasn't solid at OBP, Walks or HR. Those facts that you speak of, I never refuted. My opinion was that I didn't think he was he best hitter on the team. People will have different opinions of what stats (facts) make a player the best hitter on the team.

Johnny Footstool
06-20-2005, 06:18 PM
Thanks, RedsBaron. Those lineups are just based on common sense -- I don't know why Miley can't bring himself to run them out there. Too much Casey love?

TRF
06-20-2005, 06:18 PM
What makes a guy a good hitter?

How about the one that makes the fewest outs while accumulating the most bases.

That would be Adam Dunn.

ochre
06-20-2005, 06:37 PM
Totally agreed, but where did I say Dunn wasn't solid at OBP, Walks or HR. Those facts that you speak of, I never refuted. My opinion was that I didn't think he was he best hitter on the team. People will have different opinions of what stats (facts) make a player the best hitter on the team.
I'm not going to go back through and check every post, but what I think happened was that people questioned the measurements you were using to identify who was/is the best hitter. In the face of these questions you continued to say the same thing, ignoring the evidence that seemed to indicate something you didn't agree with.

Its the inflexible stance in the face of contrary data that people are critiquing.

RFS62
06-20-2005, 07:10 PM
Of course not. I have used plenty of statistical arguments here and on mlb board. And I find many of the stats fascinating and useful.

Sometimes though, you have to deal with people/personalities/mixes of people etc.....yes "intuitive" more "subjective" things.


Here's my problem with what I've seen of your approach.

I agree that subjective judgments are very valuable in figuring out what's going on. But that doesn't mean that all subjective judgments are accurate.

There are good subjective judgments and there are bad ones.

My opinion of your judgment is not very high. You hide behind the label of "traditionalist", but you're giving traditionalists a very bad name.

There's a lot of truth in many things I've seen you write, but it seems like you always go off the deep end with your personal bias. It's tired and it's boring, and personally I'm sick of it.

Raisor
06-20-2005, 07:31 PM
My cat's breath smells like cat food.

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 07:57 PM
Here's my problem with what I've seen of your approach.

I agree that subjective judgments are very valuable in figuring out what's going on. But that doesn't mean that all subjective judgments are accurate.

There are good subjective judgments and there are bad ones.

My opinion of your judgment is not very high. You hide behind the label of "traditionalist", but you're giving traditionalists a very bad name.

There's a lot of truth in many things I've seen you write, but it seems like you always go off the deep end with your personal bias. It's tired and it's boring, and personally I'm sick of it.Well if I cared about your opinion (I don't) I might be offended. If I cared about you (I don't) I might be concerned. You are a weak man (or boy). You give forums/message boards a bad name with your mindless, herd mentality. And YOU are the one who is bringing this down to personal insult level. I don't care if you're sick of me. I care nothing about what you think.

RFS62
06-20-2005, 07:59 PM
Yep, I get that a lot.

MWM
06-20-2005, 08:03 PM
RFS62, looks like you've finally done it. You've got BF to say something that will hopefully get him booted....finally.

wheels
06-20-2005, 08:07 PM
:laugh:

BadFundamentals
06-20-2005, 08:18 PM
RFS62, looks like you've finally done it. You've got BF to say something that will hopefully get him booted....finally. Luckily, what a follow the herd lackey like you thinks mwm doesn't usually carry much weight amongst intelligent/reasonable people.

zombie-a-go-go
06-21-2005, 07:50 AM
Luckily, what a follow the herd lackey like you thinks mwm doesn't usually carry much weight amongst intelligent/reasonable people.

Well, call me stupid.

Hi, my name is zombie. I'm a moderator around these here parts.

And I won't tolerate continued personal attacks on this board - from anyone. You've been given, and have given, a lot of grief on this board since you arrived here. I respect that you have a differing opinion on... well, pretty much everything we reasonable/intelligent people talk about here. And I'm willing to cut you a little slack because of it, since - from what I know - you don't often cover yourself in slime and roll around in it like you just did here.

But if you want to go on breaking Rule Five (one of my personal favorites), then I will ban you from the board.

So please keep that in mind when composing your future posts.

Thanks, and God bless.

zombie-a-go-go
06-21-2005, 07:56 AM
Eh, looks like I was a little late to the party. :cool: