PDA

View Full Version : Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4



Jpup
07-04-2005, 05:57 AM
At this point, Dunn deal doesn't add up

Column by The Post's Lonnie Wheeler

A lot of the Reds' hardest decisions revolve around Adam Dunn, and we're not talking about where to put the big guy in the batting order.

On second thought, maybe we will talk about that for a moment, because Jerry Narron seems to have a swell idea. Dunn was batting second Sunday for the second time in days - sandwiched around a seventh and a fourth - in spite of his 21 homers and 275 pounds. The jocular Texan is not your prototypical sacrifice bunter - it took him a couple years of hard swinging to produce a sacrifice fly - but he is brimming with that hot sabermetric commodity, get-on-baseness, which is particularly useful for the top of the order.

The man walks a lot, partly because he's picky for a guy who will eat anything, and partly because pitchers tend to steer clear of 500-foot strikes if they can. Plus, the person Dunn drives in the most is his big ol' country self, in which case you may as well move him up in the order for another whack at Mehring Way.

"I've been thinking about it for a long while, really," said Narron, the interim manager. "Dunn gets on base."

There's a fair chance, of course, that the bases on balls will taper off for the long-hitting Longhorn, what with Ken Griffey Jr. and Sean Casey batting behind him; but that, in turn, could extrapolate to more home runs. If this move turns out to be a win-win, that's already more wins than the Reds usually see in a week.

For a refreshingly normal major-leaguer, meanwhile, Dunn is a most peculiar ballplayer. He reaches base in spite of a low batting average. He's a power hitter who leaves runners in scoring position. He's a strikeout prodigy that teams don't want to pitch to.

He's also 25 and on pace for nearly 90 homers over two years; for a career rate of almost 40 a season. He's eminently durable, which should not be underestimated on Team Disabled List. And he, you know, walks.

OK, the man is no Tris Speaker in the outfield (although, equipped with major-league wit, he is a pretty good Extemporaneous Speaker). A lot of folks think his natural place is first base, where he acquits himself adequately but Casey holds forth. And so, as it goes, the question often comes down to those two.

Whom do you trade?

There is no window of winning streak, no breakout of bats, no punch-up of pitching that can save the Reds from being sellers at the trading deadline four weeks from now. Their payroll is poorly spent, which means that it will be significantly reduced as soon as the opportunity presents itself. Dan O'Brien, the general manager, has tiptoed through the obvious and double-talked his way to that very deduction.

This brings us to the commodities market that is the Cincinnati clubhouse. Among the irregularities concerning young Dunn is that, having avoided arbitration last year to the jingling of $4.6 million, he stands to make a heck of a lot more from it after this season is over. He'll make, in effect, Casey money.

The Reds can afford both of them, but will probably lead us to believe that they can't. Of the two, Dunn - six years Casey's junior - is more likely to fetch the kind of pitcher the Reds can no longer do without. Nobody else in O'Brien's portfolio offers the exchange value of his left fielder.

But if you trade Dunn in the midst of a youth movement - and there have been rumbles to that effect - how do you explain it to the paying customers? Short of Albert Pujols, who in the game is a more productive hitter at his age?

All of this assumes that the Yankees or Braves or some other well-heeled contender will not be tempted by Griffey's steady march toward his illustrious past. All of it assumes that the Cincinnati landscape will remain overgrown with executive complications - that Carl Lindner isn't traded for an owner who will hire a COO who won't send his general manager to the plate with his shoes tied together.

In the meantime, color Joe Randa gone but don't count on an ace in return; or even a pair of fives. Hope that Austin Kearns is not redeemed at well below market value. Ponder Wily Mo Pena.

Pena is two years younger than Dunn, with every bit the power; nobody in the business has more. He makes $440,000 but after the season will be eligible for first-time arbitration, which will be kind to him. His tools elicit drools. For those reasons, the Reds could perhaps justify retaining him instead of his left-handed counterpart - if, that is, they place no value on two specific items:

If they don't care about a player's capacity for staying in the lineup day after day.

If they don't care about how it all looks.

To trade Dunn would be to cash in whatever good faith remains in the organization; to sell out the few fans whose extraordinary patience has kept them coming to the park.

To trade Dunn would be to perpetuate a rebuilding process that never gets beyond the subfloor.

To trade Casey would be hard. To trade Pena would be hard.

To trade Dunn would be regrettable.

Jpup
07-04-2005, 06:01 AM
Now that was a good article. :thumbup:

KearnsyEars
07-04-2005, 06:09 AM
great article....I hope they hang onto dunn and i have some faith that they will.

MrCinatit
07-04-2005, 06:36 AM
excellent article. i should hope they hold onto Dunn and Pena, myself.

Maldez
07-04-2005, 10:29 AM
<<..To trade Dunn would be to cash in whatever good faith remains in the organization; to sell out the few fans whose extraordinary patience has kept them coming to the park.

To trade Dunn would be to perpetuate a rebuilding process that never gets beyond the subfloor...>>

Glad to see somebody in the media giving voice to what I hope most of us fans are feeling. Trading Adam Dunn could very well lead to a fan mutiny.

wheels
07-04-2005, 10:41 AM
Wow. Lonnie Wheeler almost seems to be the lone voice of reason in the Cincinnati media.

Good article. A writer that knows the word sabermetrics, and actually uses it in a body of work. Who'da thunk it?

RedRoser
07-04-2005, 10:57 AM
:beerme: Best Reds read in quite a while!

---'Roser

Gallen5862
07-04-2005, 11:16 AM
Great article. :thumbup:

Mario-Rijo
07-04-2005, 11:22 AM
Agreed 1000%!!! :thumbup: Pena is the Power source who really should be traded I think he should fetch what we need and although he could end up being the biggest mistake to deal (huge ceiling), I believe Dunn will prove to be the better long term player. This is all assuming Jr. and/or Casey can't be dealt for something palatable, which I doubt.

Kc61
07-04-2005, 11:35 AM
Agreed 1000%!!! :thumbup: Pena is the Power source who really should be traded I think he should fetch what we need and although he could end up being the biggest mistake to deal (huge ceiling), I believe Dunn will prove to be the better long term player. This is all assuming Jr. and/or Casey can't be dealt for something palatable, which I doubt.

Just keep the following in mind.

Pena is 23 years old. The next two years should be huge growth years for him. Remember how far Lopez came between the ages of 23 to 25. Do you really want to trade Pena now? I think he has only scratched the surface of his great ability.

Dunn becomes a free agent after 2007. Is there any real chance he will stay? Will the Reds contend for the next two years while Dunn is still in Cincy?

I'm not advocating a trade of either. But this article ignores key points.

steig
07-04-2005, 11:38 AM
great article, well written :beerme:

REDREAD
07-04-2005, 11:48 AM
some great quotes in there that had me laughing :lol:


If this move turns out to be a win-win, that's already more wins than the Reds usually see in a week.



that Carl Lindner isn't traded for an owner who will hire a COO who won't send his general manager to the plate with his shoes tied together.

icehole3
07-04-2005, 12:17 PM
Dunn Kingman strikes out way to much for me. He gets 8-10 mill a year next year and fans are going to aurgue next year about all of his deficiencies. Move him now instead of paying him all that cash. If he turns into Frank Robinson II, then it wont be the first and it wont be the last. He doesnt drive in runs for a slugger of his caliber Im sorry.

KearnsyEars
07-04-2005, 12:25 PM
Dunn becomes a free agent after 2007. Is there any real chance he will stay? Will the Reds contend for the next two years while Dunn is still in Cincy?


if we offer him what he should be paid, he will stay i would bet.

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2005, 12:34 PM
Dunn Kingman strikes out way to much for me. He gets 8-10 mill a year next year and fans are going to aurgue next year about all of his deficiencies. Move him now instead of paying him all that cash. If he turns into Frank Robinson II, then it wont be the first and it wont be the last. He doesnt drive in runs for a slugger of his caliber Im sorry.

Dave Kingman-Career .236/.303/.476

Adam Dunn-.248/.383/.518

Dave Kingman never posted an OBP over .343. Adam Dunn has never got on base at less than a .354 clip.

Around 300 of Dunn's 328 plate appearances have come with him batting 5th 6th or 7th. Dunn leads off an inning in what seems like every atbat. It's very difficult to drive in runs when he is being misutilized(burying him down in the order).

flyer85
07-04-2005, 12:38 PM
Just keep the following in mind.

Pena is 23 years old. The next two years should be huge growth years for him. Remember how far Lopez came between the ages of 23 to 25. Do you really want to trade Pena now? I think he has only scratched the surface of his great ability.

Dunn becomes a free agent after 2007.and Pena becomes a free agent after 2008

wheels
07-04-2005, 12:45 PM
Dunn Kingman strikes out way to much for me. He gets 8-10 mill a year next year and fans are going to aurgue next year about all of his deficiencies. Move him now instead of paying him all that cash. If he turns into Frank Robinson II, then it wont be the first and it wont be the last. He doesnt drive in runs for a slugger of his caliber Im sorry.

Good grief.

riddelde
07-04-2005, 12:50 PM
Just keep the following in mind.

Pena is 23 years old. The next two years should be huge growth years for him. Remember how far Lopez came between the ages of 23 to 25. Do you really want to trade Pena now? I think he has only scratched the surface of his great ability.

Dunn becomes a free agent after 2007. Is there any real chance he will stay? Will the Reds contend for the next two years while Dunn is still in Cincy?

I'm not advocating a trade of either. But this article ignores key points.


I tend to agree with this line of thinking. Pena is only 23 years old. The guy is going to hit 25-30 homers this year, and those numbers could grow to the 40-50 range in the next couple years. Factor in his knack for clutch hits, and I really believe Pena is on the verge of becoming a star.

Is his OBP a little low? Yes I suppose, but there's always the possibility that he will become a more disciplined hitter as he progresses through his 20s. Check out the evolution of Jose Guillen's OBP through the years. He was a free-swinger early on, but has become a more disciplined hitter.

This is not meant as a knock on Dunn. I think he's an unbelievable talent, and his ability to work counts and draw walks should not be discounted. But the Reds are a small market team, and the dollars Dunn is going to command in the future just don't add up for this franchise.

Pitching wins games, and this team is in dire need of pitching. Other franchises have traded for young pitching and been successful in doing so. While I hope the Reds begin developing their own pitching, it hasn't happened yet.

Dunn is a proven commodity, and could bring a big-time pitching prospect and a top young hitter in a trade. The Pirates moved Brian Giles for Jason Bay and Oliver Perez. They now have two building blocks for the future, and one of them is a pitcher. The Tribe moved Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore. You think they're happy about that trade these days? Yup.

The status quo is not working. Trading in baseball is all about maximizing value. Pena and Kearns have trade value, but not the value that they may have in a couple years. Teams are foaming at the mouth for Dunn, and I believe they would pay handsomely for him.

The_jbh
07-04-2005, 12:57 PM
Dunn Kingman strikes out way to much for me. He gets 8-10 mill a year next year and fans are going to aurgue next year about all of his deficiencies. Move him now instead of paying him all that cash. If he turns into Frank Robinson II, then it wont be the first and it wont be the last. He doesnt drive in runs for a slugger of his caliber Im sorry.

:bang:
He "doesn't drive in runs" yet he is one of the most productive players in baseball. THat is a statistical fact. No He is not albert Pujols, but no one is. Adam Dunn is a cornerstone of a franchise. If we trade him, it will go down as one of the worst moves in Reds History.

Casey is the guy to go. He will fix things the most. Get Dunn's below average glove to 1B where he could be average. Get Wily Mo's putrid glove out of RF into left where it MIGHT not hurt us as much. That way we can have atleast 2 solid Defenders in the OF in Kearns and Griffey or hell even Freel is average in the OF if Kearns isnt done with DanO West's Work out plan... I like casey and think he's undervalued on this board, but i'd rather have Dunn making 8 mil for the next 3 years than Casey

Tom Lawless Fan
07-04-2005, 01:07 PM
Dunn Kingman strikes out way to much for me. He gets 8-10 mill a year next year and fans are going to aurgue next year about all of his deficiencies. Move him now instead of paying him all that cash. If he turns into Frank Robinson II, then it wont be the first and it wont be the last. He doesnt drive in runs for a slugger of his caliber Im sorry.

it think he strikes out to much to so they should trade him for a real good pitcher like that clements guy that beat us yesterday. hes pretty good.

Tom Lawless Fan
07-04-2005, 01:23 PM
Dave Kingman-Career .236/.303/.476

Adam Dunn-.248/.383/.518

Dave Kingman never posted an OBP over .343. Adam Dunn has never got on base at less than a .354 clip.

Around 300 of Dunn's 328 plate appearances have come with him batting 5th 6th or 7th. Dunn leads off an inning in what seems like every atbat. It's very difficult to drive in runs when he is being misutilized(burying him down in the order).

:bang: That isnot what i see when i watched dunne play he just throws the bat up there hoping for a homer.i go to lots of games and thats what i see. :beerme:

icehole3
07-04-2005, 01:47 PM
Dave Kingman-Career .236/.303/.476

Adam Dunn-.248/.383/.518

Dave Kingman never posted an OBP over .343. Adam Dunn has never got on base at less than a .354 clip.

Around 300 of Dunn's 328 plate appearances have come with him batting 5th 6th or 7th. Dunn leads off an inning in what seems like every atbat. It's very difficult to drive in runs when he is being misutilized(burying him down in the order).

I bet Marty Brenneman who's seen Dunn everyday agrees more with me than you and your OBP. I've got no problem with stats, I just feel power hitters...the really good one's drive in runs. If he is to be the cornerstone of the franchise I'd like to see a better approach to the plate, but he doesnt seem like the kind of kid who will make the adjustments and with the attitude coming into play this year. He's not a cornerstone guy to me, just little 2 cents worth.

westofyou
07-04-2005, 01:48 PM
I bet Marty Brenneman who's seen Dunn everyday agrees more with me than you and your OBP.

Oh please... I've seen most of Dunns games and I remember Kingman very well.

No comparison at all.

Period.

icehole3
07-04-2005, 01:53 PM
Oh please... I've seen most of Dunns games and I remember Kingman very well.

No comparison at all.

Period.

So have I and there is...he goes thru more stretchs of being Kingman like than any player Ive seen over the years. Who do you think he's like...Pete Rose?

icehole3
07-04-2005, 01:55 PM
or maybe Willie Greene

Puffy
07-04-2005, 01:57 PM
I bet Marty Brenneman who's seen Dunn everyday agrees more with me than you and your OBP.

I was going to argue using Dunn's stats, thereby pointing all the holes in your argument.

But this quote says it all. I rest my case.

Thank you.

westofyou
07-04-2005, 01:57 PM
Who do you think he's like...Pete Rose?

Frank Howard, Harmon Killebrew, Jim Thome, Mike Schmidt, Roy Cullenbine and Reggie Jackson.

There's more than one type of ballplayer in the world.

flyer85
07-04-2005, 02:03 PM
I bet Marty Brenneman who's seen Dunn everyday agrees more with me than you and your OBP. The test of truth, agreement with Marty

icehole3
07-04-2005, 02:09 PM
The test of truth, agreement with Marty

Yep Im a closet Marty fan, him and Hal I agree with a lot of their opinions.

icehole3
07-04-2005, 02:11 PM
Frank Howard, Harmon Killebrew, Jim Thome, Mike Schmidt, Roy Cullenbine and Reggie Jackson.

There's more than one type of ballplayer in the world.

Popping to many firecrackers this weekend.

:D

KronoRed
07-04-2005, 02:16 PM
Check the stats, Dunn is similar to all of them.

Marty was a great baseball announcer, but he is wrong about Dunn.

icehole3
07-04-2005, 02:29 PM
Check the stats, Dunn is similar to all of them.

Marty was a great baseball announcer, but he is wrong about Dunn.

OK you guys are right, Im wrong he's just like some the greatest players of all-time. I just hope no one complain's next year when he's making 10 million and hitting .230 with 20 homers and 35 RBI's.

pedro
07-04-2005, 02:29 PM
I bet Marty Brenneman who's seen Dunn everyday agrees more with me than you and your OBP. I've got no problem with stats, I just feel power hitters...the really good one's drive in runs. If he is to be the cornerstone of the franchise I'd like to see a better approach to the plate, but he doesnt seem like the kind of kid who will make the adjustments and with the attitude coming into play this year. He's not a cornerstone guy to me, just little 2 cents worth.

Marty is a moron. If you want to take his word on it, fine, but don't mistake your opinion for fact, or else you'll end up falling into the same trap as Marty.

westofyou
07-04-2005, 02:30 PM
Popping to many firecrackers this weekend.

:D

That's it?

Ok... nice debating the facts with ya.

25 and under.


YEAR TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS RC/G

Dunn

TOTALS 501 1728 313 430 92 4 118 6.83 273 348 565 37 14 .249 .512 .382 .893 7.13
LG AVERAGE 1727 240 463 93 10 57 3.27 229 178 320 29 13 .268 .432 .340 .772 5.16

Schmidt

TOTALS 465 1531 246 379 73 10 93 6.07 266 274 469 60 26 .248 .491 .366 .857 6.48
LG AVERAGE 1546 195 407 65 11 33 2.15 180 162 213 29 14 .263 .384 .334 .718 4.48

Howard

TOTALS 367 1258 175 355 51 11 71 5.64 249 95 286 1 2 .282 .510 .333 .843 5.65
LG AVERAGE 1227 164 328 51 11 34 2.78 154 120 178 17 9 .268 .411 .334 .745 4.78

Killebrew

TOTALS 540 1783 305 467 65 10 130 7.29 337 291 424 5 4 .262 .528 .367 .895 6.96
LG AVERAGE 1749 237 460 74 13 49 2.79 222 191 230 18 11 .263 .403 .337 .740 4.76

Jackson

TOTALS 640 2213 362 568 103 18 132 5.96 344 312 655 70 37 .257 .498 .356 .854 6.28
LG AVERAGE 2174 259 545 83 13 54 2.49 242 226 331 33 20 .251 .376 .323 .699 4.18

Kingman

TOTALS 409 1242 177 278 55 9 77 6.20 217 138 422 37 19 .224 .469 .304 .773 4.57
LG AVERAGE 1296 160 337 52 9 29 2.26 148 132 187 22 12 .260 .382 .329 .711 4.36

pahster
07-04-2005, 02:36 PM
OK you guys are right, Im wrong he's just like some the greatest players of all-time. I just hope no one complain's next year when he's making 10 million and hitting .230 with 20 homers and 35 RBI's.

I wouldn't complain so long as he's still OPSing above .900 with an OBP around .400.

KronoRed
07-04-2005, 02:39 PM
OK you guys are right, Im wrong he's just like some the greatest players of all-time. I just hope no one complain's next year when he's making 10 million and hitting .230 with 20 homers and 35 RBI's.
Put in RBI spots and his RBI will go up, buried in the 6-7 spot and we'll see have lead the team in at bats with nobody on (like he has this year for 95% of the season)

RedlegJake
07-04-2005, 02:57 PM
Dunn is an adequate fielder. He gets better each year. He can play first, giving him some flexibility. He has tremendous patience and will only get better selecting his pitches, he has a high OBP, high SP and I believe he can hit .280+ in a couple years. Nothing but an upward curve ahead.

WMP on the other hand has as much (or more) power but gets on base far less, has as low a batting average and I don't think he has the ceiling to ever hit .280 because he has no pitch recognition skills and no patience - sao he won't ever walk much. Yes, he's very exciting and young, fun to watch, too, mostly because you never know when a pop fly to him will become a triple or a routine play look magnificent because he uses his speed to outrun his lack of instincts in the OF. Unfortunately he also overruns that lack of instinct quite often, getting turned the wrong way or outrunning flyballs then having to try the impossible feat of turning back in at the last moment. What really bothers me is that he doesn't appear to be learning in the field. You want a comparison to Kingman? Huge incredibly strong guy who can't field and is almost 100% KO or homerun.

Trade Casey and WMP, keep Dunn, IF he can be signed to a LT. I'm still not convinced he really wants to stay in Cincy. He can get the dollars anywhere, so unless the Reds can convince AD they are serious about winning - AND competent enough to do something about it - I don't blame him if he wanted out. The FO needs to make that call. They need to be dead on for once. Get this one wrong, or make the wrong trades with any of Dunn/Casey/WMP/AK and .... I don't really need to go there. Let's just hope things are handled right.

redssouth
07-04-2005, 02:59 PM
I have yet to figure out why on this board, that you have to be completely one way or the other. Either your a scouts guy, or a SABR guy. I think Dunn is the perfect example of why you cant be both. Adam Dunn could be a great baseball player. He puts up amazing OBP, and OPS stats right now. However, having watched him over the years, he is lacking in baseball instincts. Situational hitting does exist. Baseball is not played in a vacuum where all that matters is how many times you do not get out. Sometimes it is okay to make a productive out. I think you can predict Dunn's level of greatness by early indicators such as walks, and SLG. But, I am not sold that he is a corner outfielder, or even first baseman on a championship baseball team.

He is a football player, who happens to be better at baseball. From the outside, it doesnt look like he puts the time in that it will take to be truely elite. This is just my opinion and holds no substance to it whatsoever. I realize that Adam Dunn compares to a lot of great players, and i think it is pretty silly to even Bring up Dave Kingman when speaking of Dunn, just on one stat (K'S). If we are going to focus on one or two stats, he would more closely resemble Barry Bonds, (BB's, HR's). I think he can grow into an elite player, but he is not there yet, and it will take some work for him to get there. I really dread the thought of trading him, but i dont know that we can afford not to.

forfreelin04
07-04-2005, 02:59 PM
I love it how every post mentioning Adam Dunn turns into a "proving his worth" thread. Not that I don't know Adam Dunn's worth, wouldn't want to give you guys something to do for the next hour. :) But anyways back to the point of the thread. I do believe Adam Dunn should be dealt. He brings in the most trade value. Few would disagree with me there. He has proven in the past two to three years to be a proven HR, OPS, and OBP machine. However, I do not trust Obie to make a good deal for him. Obie is DESPERATE to make a good deal for his very job's sake. I don't think he'll pull the trigger on Dunn until he is 100% sure that he is smelling like a rose after the deal is made and then years after. I just don't think Obie will deal Dunn in favor of unproven ML talent (prospects.) I think he will only make the deal if he receives a top line starter in return. This will not ever happen because Adam Dunn is just not appreciated enough for OBP and OPS to be dealt for an ace. However, if some of the guys on this thread ran the Braves, Cubs, Twins, and Astros organizations, I would trade Dunn to you anyday for a top line starter.:)

icehole3
07-04-2005, 03:01 PM
Ive agreed with you guys...youve convinced me. I was wrong for playing the Marty card, Im sorry. There will be complaints next year when he's not driving in any runs just walking, batting .230, making 10 mil and hitting a ton of solo shots. Everyday next year there will be a Dunn trade rumor post on Reds Live.

CTA513
07-04-2005, 03:04 PM
Trade Dunn and replace him with Romano... Romano is the future.

TeamBoone
07-04-2005, 03:05 PM
Yep Im a closet Marty fan, him and Hal I agree with a lot of their opinions.

That certainly doesn't mean they are always right (not even "nearly always right").

TeamBoone
07-04-2005, 03:07 PM
OK you guys are right, Im wrong he's just like some the greatest players of all-time. I just hope no one complain's next year when he's making 10 million and hitting .230 with 20 homers and 35 RBI's.

As someone else said, he's up to bat a lot without runners on (more than with runners on). In addition, he lead off inning more than any other player on the team.

It's very very difficult to hit in runners when no one is on base.

If you want, I'll look up the numbers; I've done it so much that it's getting tiresome.

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2005, 03:10 PM
Ive agreed with you guys...youve convinced me. I was wrong for playing the Marty card, Im sorry. There will be complaints next year when he's not driving in any runs just walking, batting .230, making 10 mil and hitting a ton of solo shots. Everyday next year there will be a Dunn trade rumor post on Reds Live.

Won't see me complaining. I don't give a hoot about almost meaningless stats like RBI and batting average.

I will always be satisfied if Dunn continues at his current production level of .925+ OPS.

pahster
07-04-2005, 03:15 PM
Dunn has hit with runners in scoring position 59 times this year. 12 hits, 2 doubles, 5 homeruns, 23 walks, 3 hbp. He has scored 34 times in these situations. .203/.442/.492/.934. That looks good to me. Dunn has also led off an inning 78 times this year. That's an awful lot. It's difficult to drive in runners when they're all sitting in the dugout.

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2005, 03:24 PM
Off topic...The Reds face three lefties in the Giants series--Look for Dunn to be buried in the 6th or 7th slot in 3 of the next 4 games. They will overlook the fact that Dunn has been hitting lefties much better lately.

icehole3
07-04-2005, 03:25 PM
As someone else said, he's up to bat a lot without runners on (more than with runners on). In addition, he lead off inning more than any other player on the team.

It's very very difficult to hit in runners when no one is on base.

If you want, I'll look up the numbers; I've done it so much that it's getting tiresome.

Never again...bring up any type of opinion ever about Dunn in this forum. Ive learned my lesson...Geez!

Raisor
07-04-2005, 03:27 PM
Never again...bring up any type of opinion ever about Dunn in this forum. Ive learned my lesson...Geez!


Just be prepared to back up your opinion with facts, that's all.

Also be prepared for others to have facts to back up their opinions.

Big Red Machine
07-04-2005, 03:30 PM
I have to agree with the sentiments of many: Dunn is the best chip we have to get major-league ready arms, for 3 reasons --
1) He and Pena are too similar. YES, Dunner has a better command of the strike zone, better than Wily Mo probably EVER will. But don't tell me that none of you see a young Sosa when you see Wily Mo hit one. If he turns into Sammy, how many of us wouldn't be happy to have that in our OF for the next several years? But they both stirke out too much, and it hurts thsi team to have that many K's in the lineup every day. When you know right off the bat that you are giving away 350 AB's a year to a K (between the 2 of them), on a team that has trouble with RISP anyway, I say one has to go. Pena will earn less, and if we keep Junior having a RH power hitter to complement him is an advantage.
2) the salary he will command next year (probably $7-8 mil), is better spent on an arm we can call our "ace." I know it wont be a true #1 (in grand Reds tradition), but an AJ Burnett, just to throw out a name, would be our ace, and require at least that money. AND is a far better use of those funds (this is assuming of course, that we were to keep Junior).
3) Casey is the face of this franchise now with Barry gone, and with the great personality he has, and the community service and all, you CANNOT trade this guy. Forget that he's in many ways not as productive as a 1B needs to be. If the Reds thought about trading him, don't you think they would NOT have picked his option up?? And besides that, who would really consider trading for him, when you can probably get the same guy (Lyle Overbay) for a LOT LESS and not have to pay him anywhere near that?? (Prince Fielder makes Overbay expendable is the point there..)

All this assumes we are keeping Junior. My problem with not actively making Junior your #1 trade priority, despite the salary, is that we really would have a BELOW AVERAGE OF defensively then, with Dunn, Kearns and Pena out there every day. And yes, of that group it has to be Kearns in CF...

westofyou
07-04-2005, 03:32 PM
BTW here's the season that Casey is on the way to matching.

Since 1945 only 2 first baseman have had a year like casey


AT BATS YEAR AB AVG OBA SLG RC/G
1 Hal Morris 1998 472 .309 .350 .381 -.50
2 Matty Alou 1972 404 .314 .353 .389 0.70

And the top ten in RC/27 with his rate stats


RUNS CREATED/GAME YEAR RC/G AVG OBA SLG RC/G
1 Don Mueller 1953 5.83 .333 .360 .404 0.43
2 Willie Wilson 1984 5.61 .301 .350 .390 1.13
3 Bret Barberie 1994 5.58 .301 .356 .406 0.42
4 Lou Brock 1972 5.54 .311 .359 .393 1.30
5 Lou Brock 1975 5.52 .309 .359 .400 0.99
6 Gene Richards 1980 5.44 .301 .363 .385 1.01
7 Lance Johnson 1993 5.44 .311 .354 .396 0.65
8 Nellie Fox 1955 5.37 .311 .364 .406 0.51
9 Barry Larkin 1990 5.35 .301 .358 .396 0.70
10 Harvey Kuenn 1953 5.33 .308 .356 .386 0.38

He's comping out with middle infielders and speedy outfielders.

Kinda crazy.

pedro
07-04-2005, 03:35 PM
Never again...bring up any type of opinion ever about Dunn in this forum. Ive learned my lesson...Geez!

You could say he's not a particularly skilled outfielder or a good situational hitter. Those are defensible positions, but they don't mean he isn't a good player. You just erred when you invoked the name of Dave Kingman and then used Saint Marty as your "go to guy" to enforce your opinion. Those are not defensible arguments IMO.

Back to topic, I'm not thrilled by the idea of trading Dunn, but I don't think anyone on the Reds is untouchable at this point. However, until the Reds get a good GM I don't think I want to see any trades of the Reds young players as I don't think DanO has a clue what is and isn't valuable.

Raisor
07-04-2005, 03:38 PM
If the Reds thought about trading him [Casey], don't you think they would NOT have picked his option up?? .


Casey's option was going to be picked up automaticly, about the middle of May, due to the number of Plate Appearances.

Picking the option up in the winter was just a two or three day PR boost. It would have happened anyway.

pedro
07-04-2005, 03:40 PM
I have to agree with the sentiments of many: Dunn is the best chip we have to get major-league ready arms, for 3 reasons --
1) He and Pena are too similar. YES, Dunner has a better command of the strike zone, better than Wily Mo probably EVER will. But don't tell me that none of you see a young Sosa when you see Wily Mo hit one. If he turns into Sammy, how many of us wouldn't be happy to have that in our OF for the next several years? But they both stirke out too much, and it hurts thsi team to have that many K's in the lineup every day. When you know right off the bat that you are giving away 350 AB's a year to a K (between the 2 of them), on a team that has trouble with RISP anyway, I say one has to go. Pena will earn less, and if we keep Junior having a RH power hitter to complement him is an advantage.
2) the salary he will command next year (probably $7-8 mil), is better spent on an arm we can call our "ace." I know it wont be a true #1 (in grand Reds tradition), but an AJ Burnett, just to throw out a name, would be our ace, and require at least that money. AND is a far better use of those funds (this is assuming of course, that we were to keep Junior).
3) Casey is the face of this franchise now with Barry gone, and with the great personality he has, and the community service and all, you CANNOT trade this guy. Forget that he's in many ways not as productive as a 1B needs to be. If the Reds thought about trading him, don't you think they would NOT have picked his option up?? And besides that, who would really consider trading for him, when you can probably get the same guy (Lyle Overbay) for a LOT LESS and not have to pay him anywhere near that?? (Prince Fielder makes Overbay expendable is the point there..)

All this assumes we are keeping Junior. My problem with not actively making Junior your #1 trade priority, despite the salary, is that we really would have a BELOW AVERAGE OF defensively then, with Dunn, Kearns and Pena out there every day. And yes, of that group it has to be Kearns in CF...

I have to disagree with you on Casey. Nice guy and all, but fans want their teams to win, not be great guys. Who cares if he is the nicest guy in the game, he's sub standard defensively and with the bat, plus he's overpaid. If the Reds are lucky enough to find some team stupid enough to take him, Casey has to go.

Big Red Machine
07-04-2005, 03:42 PM
Back to topic, I'm not thrilled by the idea of trading Dunn, but I don't think anyone on the Reds is untouchable at this point. However, until the Reds get a good GM I don't think I want to see any trades of the Reds young players as I don't think DanO has a clue what is and isn't valuable.

I agree this worries me too. I heard Wayne Krivsky's name mentioned again...

SteelSD
07-04-2005, 03:42 PM
I have to agree with the sentiments of many: Dunn is the best chip we have to get major-league ready arms, for 3 reasons --

1) He and Pena are too similar. YES, Dunner has a better command of the strike zone, better than Wily Mo probably EVER will. But don't tell me that none of you see a young Sosa when you see Wily Mo hit one. If he turns into Sammy, how many of us wouldn't be happy to have that in our OF for the next several years? But they both stirke out too much, and it hurts thsi team to have that many K's in the lineup every day. When you know right off the bat that you are giving away 350 AB's a year to a K (between the 2 of them), on a team that has trouble with RISP anyway, I say one has to go. Pena will earn less, and if we keep Junior having a RH power hitter to complement him is an advantage.

The Reds are currently 2nd in the NL in Runs Scored with all those K's in the lineup. They simply don't really matter.

If one has to go, then it's got to be Pena. But neither "has" to go.


2) the salary he will command next year (probably $7-8 mil), is better spent on an arm we can call our "ace." I know it wont be a true #1 (in grand Reds tradition), but an AJ Burnett, just to throw out a name, would be our ace, and require at least that money. AND is a far better use of those funds (this is assuming of course, that we were to keep Junior).

Then you work like mad to move the contacts of less productive players. Pay the performers. Get rid of the non-performers.


3) Casey is the face of this franchise now with Barry gone, and with the great personality he has, and the community service and all, you CANNOT trade this guy. Forget that he's in many ways not as productive as a 1B needs to be. If the Reds thought about trading him, don't you think they would NOT have picked his option up?? And besides that, who would really consider trading for him, when you can probably get the same guy (Lyle Overbay) for a LOT LESS and not have to pay him anywhere near that?? (Prince Fielder makes Overbay expendable is the point there..)

Now Casey is a guy who needs to go because of all the players we're talking about, he's the one guy who isn't worth anywhere near what he makes. You can't forget that Casey is a below average 1B from a production standpoint right now. The fact that the Reds picked up his option is immaterial because that option would have automatically triggered anyway. It was a PR move, nothing more.


All this assumes we are keeping Junior. My problem with not actively making Junior your #1 trade priority, despite the salary, is that we really would have a BELOW AVERAGE OF defensively then, with Dunn, Kearns and Pena out there every day. And yes, of that group it has to be Kearns in CF...

Griffey is part of the Outfield defense issue. His range has decreased dramatically and it's costing the Reds quite a few Runs. If you can move Griffey, it needs to be done. That being said, it may not be possible.

RFS62
07-04-2005, 03:48 PM
You could say he's not a particularly skilled outfielder or a good situational hitter. Those are defensible positions, but they don't mean he isn't a good player. You just erred when you invoked the name of Dave Kingman and then used Saint Marty as your "go to guy" to enforce your opinion. Those are not defensible arguments IMO.

Back to topic, I'm not thrilled by the idea of trading Dunn, but I don't think anyone on the Reds is untouchable at this point. However, until the Reds get a good GM I don't think I want to see any trades of the Reds young players as I don't think DanO has a clue what is and isn't valuable.


Pretty good assesment. Unless there's a radical sea-change in the Reds philosophy, from the top down, Dunn will be undervalued by the Reds as long as he's here. They don't show any sign of becoming a more saber-influenced team.

The only standard ever quoted from the broadcasters is "the Book". Outside of RedsZone and a few blogs, the traditional "book" values are treated with an almost religious respect.

The specter of the Big Red Machine looms large over any discussion of "what should be". And just like religious discussions, threats to that status quo are treated as sacrilege.

"The Book" is a system, an offensive philosophy. It's been passed down from generation to generation. To devotees of "the Book", sabermetric theories are as foreign and crazy as Scientology to a Southern Baptist.

Don't expect it to change here anytime soon.

westofyou
07-04-2005, 04:01 PM
The specter of the Big Red Machine looms large over any discussion of "what should be".

You mean that team that struck out more than most, walked more than most and sacrificed less then most?

As a team they couldn't even match the league in batting average during Sparkys tenure (.01 below)

Nothing to learn from them... move along.

acredsfan
07-04-2005, 04:01 PM
I don't see how people can possibly think that trading Dunn would answer all of our problems. That may solve one problem by getting us one quality pitcher, but don't you think we have more problems than that? I don't think we are one pitcher away from a good team. I also don't see why people are so eager to trade Dunn and replace him with Wily Mo. I think Wily Mo is good, and has a great deal of potential, but you would be giving up an already proven major league outfielder with a player that just has a lot of potential. We've already seen Kearns fall and know that his return to Cincy is questionable. I also don't like to hear about selling and rebuilding, maybe it would work if we had some better people in the upper part of the organization, but we have seen from past experiences that rebuilding fails way more than it succeeds. I don't know if the front office is smart enough to rebuild this team right. Who really thinks that the businessmen running this once great franchise is knowledgeable enough to set this team straight? I know one thing, it is a shame that we the fans have to sit through the same crap at this time year after year, only to be filled with false optimism in the off season.

TeamBoone
07-04-2005, 04:04 PM
Never again...bring up any type of opinion ever about Dunn in this forum. Ive learned my lesson...Geez!

Bringing it up has absolutely nothing to do with it. However, if you bring it up please include the FACTS to back up your statements... though that will be tough to do.

Until you can do that, the statements you make are not credible.

I'm sure there are some statements you can make that are credible, but those don't seem to be the ones your making.

flyer85
07-04-2005, 04:06 PM
Trade Dunn and replace him with Romano... Romano is the future.say cheese

RFS62
07-04-2005, 04:08 PM
You mean that team that struck out more than most, walked more than most and sacrificed less then most?

As a team they couldn't even match the league in batting average during Sparkys tenure (.01 below)

Nothing to learn from them... move along.


All true, but that's not how they're remembered. They're evoked as the way to play the game. Which, of course, is true. The best way to play the game is to have 8 all star caliber regulars.

flyer85
07-04-2005, 04:09 PM
Bringing it up has absolutely nothing to do with it. However, if you bring it up please include the FACTS to back up your statements... though that will be tough to do.

Until you can do that, the statements you make are not credible. sure they are, the poofy haired fancy boy is an HOFer ;)

CTA513
07-04-2005, 04:10 PM
The Reds should do this trade reported by Tim Kurkijan

Astros Get: Adam Dunn & Kent Mercker

Reds Get:
Nieve- 22
(at AA) 4-3 2.65 ERA 96 SO 29 BB 7 HR in 85 IP
(at AAA) 1-2 4.50 ERA 11 SO 7 BB 3 HR in 18 IP

Astacio- 25
(at AAA) 4-3 2.70 ERA 48 SO 9 BB 5 HR in 56.2 IP
(at MLB) 0-3 10.98 ERA 19 SO 6 BB 10 in 19.2 IP

Buchholz- 23
(at AAA) 6-0 4.19 ERA 41 SO 23 BB 12 HR in 68.2 IP


:ughmamoru :laugh:

Big Red Machine
07-04-2005, 04:11 PM
The Reds are currently 2nd in the NL in Runs Scored with all those K's in the lineup. They simply don't really matter.

If one has to go, then it's got to be Pena. But neither "has" to go.

Gotta disagree with you here...look at our record. If this team could hit better with RISP, or even just hit better situationally in general, we'd be a heckofa lot closer to .500 than we are now. Without looking at the individual game stats, how many times have we had chances to score where we didn't, because somebody whiffed rather than get a sac fly or a grounder to 2nd? WAY too many. The good teams get guys in, period. This team isn't built to do that.



Then you work like mad to move the contacts of less productive players. Pay the performers. Get rid of the non-performers.

I do agree here whole-heartedly, but difficult to do as you said. Randa's gone for sure (and Thank You Joe for having a career year so we can get somethign for you). I just don't see anyone trading for Casey, unless MAYBE you give them Pena or Dunn too, and then where are you? Milton? Let's not go there....I'm truthfully shocked that anyone would deal for him, despite the whispers out there....the Reds would have to eat probably $10m of his deal. Not sure that's worth moving him for...



Now Casey is a guy who needs to go because of all the players we're talking about, he's the one guy who isn't worth anywhere near what he makes. You can't forget that Casey is a below average 1B from a production standpoint right now. The fact that the Reds picked up his option is immaterial because that option would have automatically triggered anyway. It was a PR move, nothing more.


Didn't remember that clause about his option year, thanks. Yes, no argument that he's a below average offensive 1B, and to my point...who trades for that, when they're also taking, what, $7-8m for next year? He's a Red.



Griffey is part of the Outfield defense issue. His range has decreased dramatically and it's costing the Reds quite a few Runs. If you can move Griffey, it needs to be done. That being said, it may not be possible.

Mixed feelings. EVERY ONE of us was thrilled in 2000 when Trader Jim brought him home, for what looked like a steal at the time. Granted, he's been hurt a lot, and the luster has long since worn off. BUT he's still Junior, and playing like it these days. If he can stay healthy and play out his contract, would anyone REALLY think that wasn't a good move?? HUGE IF, I KNOW, and therein lies the gamble.... Yes, if we get bowled over by the Braves (Horacio Ramirez, Kyle Davies), we should probably take it. But IMO, if we were to watch Junior then play unhurt for 4 more years in Hotlanta and put up Junior 2005 numbers......BOY I'd wish we'da kept him...

icehole3
07-04-2005, 04:17 PM
Bringing it up has absolutely nothing to do with it. However, if you bring it up please include the FACTS to back up your statements... though that will be tough to do.

Until you can do that, the statements you make are not credible.

I'm sure there are some statements you can make that are credible, but those don't seem to be the ones your making.

Smacked in the head again

pahster
07-04-2005, 04:18 PM
Gotta disagree with you here...look at our record. If this team could hit better with RISP, or even just hit better situationally in general, we'd be a heckofa lot closer to .500 than we are now.

The offense is not the problem. The pitching staff kills this team.
5.67 ERA
1.59 WHIP
.875 OPS Against

SteelSD
07-04-2005, 04:24 PM
Gotta disagree with you here...look at our record. If this team could hit better with RISP, or even just hit better situationally in general, we'd be a heckofa lot closer to .500 than we are now. Without looking at the individual game stats, how many times have we had chances to score where we didn't, because somebody whiffed rather than get a sac fly or a grounder to 2nd? WAY too many. The good teams get guys in, period. This team isn't built to do that.

The Reds record has everything to do with their pitching. Strikeouts don't depress Run Scoring any more than "Productive Outs" improve it.



I do agree here whole-heartedly, but difficult to do as you said. Randa's gone for sure (and Thank You Joe for having a career year so we can get somethign for you). I just don't see anyone trading for Casey, unless MAYBE you give them Pena or Dunn too, and then where are you? Milton? Let's not go there....I'm truthfully shocked that anyone would deal for him, despite the whispers out there....the Reds would have to eat probably $10m of his deal. Not sure that's worth moving him for...

If you're not blown away (and I mean overwhelmed) by a trade offer, then you keep both Dunn and Pena, pay them, and cut the non-productive chaff. A good front office can do this. That being said...well, we know that the Reds isn't.


Didn't remember that clause about his option year, thanks. Yes, no argument that he's a below average offensive 1B, and to my point...who trades for that, when they're also taking, what, $7-8m for next year? He's a Red.

Who trades for that? Why, the bigger fool does. That's why the Reds need to go out and find him. They're around and sometimes I forget this. There's one in Florida right now. The Angels might be smarter than some, but their perceived need may be higher considering their preference for veteran players and their current playoff window. Certainly you have one running the Mets. They're paying Doug Alphabet nearly half of what Casey's being paid.

They're around. Just need to find them.


Mixed feelings. EVERY ONE of us was thrilled in 2000 when Trader Jim brought him home, for what looked like a steal at the time. Granted, he's been hurt a lot, and the luster has long since worn off. BUT he's still Junior, and playing like it these days. If he can stay healthy and play out his contract, would anyone REALLY think that wasn't a good move?? HUGE IF, I KNOW, and therein lies the gamble.... Yes, if we get bowled over by the Braves (Horacio Ramirez, Kyle Davies), we should probably take it. But IMO, if we were to watch Junior then play unhurt for 4 more years in Hotlanta and put up Junior 2005 numbers......BOY I'd wish we'da kept him...

The Junior trade was a good idea that ultimately didn't end up as good due to factors completely outside organizational control. Unfortunately, Griffey's just not the same player he used to be- offensively, defensively, etc. I very much doubt that the Braves would offer a guy like Davies for Griffey. I very much doubt that anyone would assume all of Griffey's contract. If you can move Griffey for middling talent to free up a salary slot (which would hopefully be used better by then NEXT administration) you have to move him.

RosieRed
07-04-2005, 04:25 PM
Gotta disagree with you here...look at our record. If this team could hit better with RISP, or even just hit better situationally in general, we'd be a heckofa lot closer to .500 than we are now. Without looking at the individual game stats, how many times have we had chances to score where we didn't, because somebody whiffed rather than get a sac fly or a grounder to 2nd? WAY too many. The good teams get guys in, period. This team isn't built to do that.

If this team could hit better with RISP, all we'd have is the best offense in the NL, instead of the second best. We'd still have the worst pitching staff.

We'd be a lot closer to .500 if our offense didn't have to outscore our own pitching time and time again.

Why does the onus keep getting placed on the offense? Sure, the offense isn't perfect. No offense is. Even the best offensive teams lose close games and get shut out. What this team isn't built to do is to prevent the opposing offense from scoring runs. We have, quite literally, one of (the?) the worst pitching staffs in all of MLB. Until that changes, it doesn't matter what kind of offense we have.

Ron Madden
07-04-2005, 04:30 PM
sure they are, the poofy haired fancy boy is an HOFer ;)

As I wrote in the Baseball Tonight thread.. These false beliefs are driven into the heads of casual fans by Marty, Chris and George during every game. Then we read much of the same misquided information from McCoy and Fay.

Big Red Machine
07-04-2005, 04:52 PM
The offense is not the problem. The pitching staff kills this team.
5.67 ERA
1.59 WHIP
.875 OPS Against

Not arguing the pitching is the OVERALL killer at all. But this team wins more games Coors-style if they could hit situationally. The Reds are not contenders until we have better pitching, certainly. But this team should NOT be getting shut out. Watch the Angels or the Cards play, or even Boston. Productive outs, situational hitting, just a ball in play somewhere gets you a run, where a K never can. We have runners on base, that's not the problem. We're not getting them home enough. This team is hitting .248 with RISP, 26th in MLB and worse than any AL team (even the Royals!!) With this talent, it shouldn't be like that.

Raisor
07-04-2005, 04:59 PM
. This team is hitting .248 with RISP, 26th in MLB and worse than any AL team (even the Royals!!) With this talent, it shouldn't be like that.


26th in the Majors in batting avg w/risp, yet 13th in the majors in runs scored w/RISP.

hmmmmmmmmmmm

pahster
07-04-2005, 05:07 PM
The Angels (who have the benefit of the DH) have scored 10 fewer runs than the Reds and have a team OBP .010 less and an OPS .036 less. I'd hardly say they are outperforming Cincinnati offensively. The Cardinals are, but what can I say, they're the only team in the league with more runs scored. Boston has performed better offensively too, but, once again, they get to use the DH.

KearnsyEars
07-04-2005, 05:51 PM
dont trade dunn, this is just not a good debate

RosieRed
07-04-2005, 06:18 PM
Not arguing the pitching is the OVERALL killer at all. But this team wins more games Coors-style if they could hit situationally. The Reds are not contenders until we have better pitching, certainly. But this team should NOT be getting shut out. Watch the Angels or the Cards play, or even Boston. Productive outs, situational hitting, just a ball in play somewhere gets you a run, where a K never can. We have runners on base, that's not the problem. We're not getting them home enough. This team is hitting .248 with RISP, 26th in MLB and worse than any AL team (even the Royals!!) With this talent, it shouldn't be like that.

Even with all that, this team is SECOND in the National League in runs scored. They've scored 403 runs; the Cardinals are first, with 420. So to say "we're not getting them home enough" just doesn't ring true.

If you want to talk about all of MLB, the Reds are 6th in runs scored. The Angels are 7th.

Reds pitching has allowed 485 runs to score. Only Tampa Bay pitching has allowed more: 504.

By the way, Houston is last in the NL in runs scored (333), and they've still won more games than the Reds. They're 39-42. Their pitching has allowed only 339 runs to score.

So, to sum up: It is all about the pitching.

kyred14
07-04-2005, 06:41 PM
dont trade dunn, this is just not a good debate

Don't worry, anything with the word Dunn in a thread on this side of the board turns into baseless Dunn bashing thread. It is a daily thing.

kyred14
07-04-2005, 06:44 PM
The Reds should do this trade reported by Tim Kurkijan

Astros Get: Adam Dunn & Kent Mercker

Reds Get:
Nieve- 22
(at AA) 4-3 2.65 ERA 96 SO 29 BB 7 HR in 85 IP
(at AAA) 1-2 4.50 ERA 11 SO 7 BB 3 HR in 18 IP

Astacio- 25
(at AAA) 4-3 2.70 ERA 48 SO 9 BB 5 HR in 56.2 IP
(at MLB) 0-3 10.98 ERA 19 SO 6 BB 10 in 19.2 IP

Buchholz- 23
(at AAA) 6-0 4.19 ERA 41 SO 23 BB 12 HR in 68.2 IP


:ughmamoru :laugh:

Rob Neyer is only thing on ESPN that isn't pure garbage, and this after Dibble was let go.

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2005, 07:03 PM
Reds trail 8-7 after 5.

Our offense is letting us down again today.

:)

riddelde
07-04-2005, 07:16 PM
Reds trail 8-7 after 5.

Our offense is letting us down again today.

:)


I agree that the offense is not the problem with the Reds, but shouldn't the Reds be looking to move some of these offensive players for young pitching?

If the Reds moved Dunn AND Pena for talented young pitching and a good young 1b, would the offense really suffer that much?

The offense may not score as many runs without Dunn and Pena, but they wouldn't need to score so many runs with some quality pitching. Instead of having to score 8 runs to win a game, it would be nice to win 5-3 once in awhile!

Guess that's why I'm in favor of moving a couple of these young OFs. Pitching is considerably more valuable than OFs, and that's why I'd love to use these OFs as bargaining chips for pitching. It seems like the Reds have a knack for finding/developing OFs, so I have confidence that Dunn and Pena can be replaced.

Pitching, pitching, pitching. It can't be emphasized enough. You can never have enough pitching, and winning ballgames is all about pitching. The Reds can't seem to develop their own pitching, so why not deal from strength to acquire it?

Jpup
07-04-2005, 07:26 PM
If the Reds moved Dunn AND Pena for talented young pitching and a good young 1b, would the offense really suffer that much?

Why would you trade for a 1st baseman when you have Dunn?

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2005, 07:28 PM
Yeah, the lineup would suffer a lot. Anytime you lose two .900+ OPS hitters you will suffer a huge dropoff.

I personally would rather they attempt to deal Casey and Randa for a couple pitching prospects. And maybe Pena or Kearns. Ideally, they bring in a GM that can develop pitching from within so that they don't have to tear apart the offensive core of: Dunn, Lopez, Kearns, Pena and Encarnacion.

riddelde
07-04-2005, 07:34 PM
Why would you trade for a 1st baseman when you have Dunn?


Simple economics. The Reds could move Dunn for a younger, cheaper 1b plus a young pitcher or two.

The Reds are a small market team. It's all about maximizing value. Look at the A's. They do an excellent job every year of moving guys before they get too expensive. Small market teams need to be proactive by constantly reloading their roster with young talented players(especially pitchers).

Dunn and Pena are relatively cheap right now. You gotta think the Reds could get a boatload of young talent(especially pitching talent) for those guys.

The Reds need pitching. Pitching, pitching, pitching. If they could nab a good young positional player along with the young pitching, the offense would not suffer as much from the losses of Dunn and Pena.

TeamCasey
07-04-2005, 07:35 PM
Dunn bashing - Dunn idolizing. Surely there's a middle ground. I admire everyone's passion on the one hand, but I don't know why it always has to turn so bitter.

It's the same way the Griffey discussions used to go.

pedro
07-04-2005, 07:38 PM
Simple economics. The Reds could move Dunn for a younger, cheaper 1b plus a young pitcher or two.

The Reds are a small market team. It's all about maximizing value. Look at the A's. They do an excellent job every year of moving guys before they get too expensive. Small market teams need to be proactive by constantly reloading their roster with young talented players(especially pitchers).

Dunn and Pena are relatively cheap right now. You gotta think the Reds could get a boatload of young talent(especially pitching talent) for those guys.

The Reds need pitching. Pitching, pitching, pitching. If they could nab a good young positional player along with the young pitching, the offense would not suffer as much from the losses of Dunn and Pena.

In theory perhaps. But last time I checked the A's had Billy Beane as their GM, while the Reds GM is just a vegetable.

riddelde
07-04-2005, 07:40 PM
Yeah, the lineup would suffer a lot. Anytime you lose two .900+ OPS hitters you will suffer a huge dropoff.

I personally would rather they attempt to deal Casey and Randa for a couple pitching prospects. And maybe Pena or Kearns. Ideally, they bring in a GM that can develop pitching from within so that they don't have to tear apart the offensive core of: Dunn, Lopez, Kearns, Pena and Encarnacion.



The Reds seem to do a good job of finding/developing young outfielders. What makes you think they wouldn't find quality replacements for Dunn and Pena?

As for trading Casey and Randa, what are you gonna get for those guys? They'll be lucky to get 1 future major leaguer for both of those guys combined. Teams just are not going to give up worthwhile prospects for Casey and Randa. You might get a fringe major leaguer out of the deal, but moving Casey and Randa is not going to bring much in return.

For the record, I'm fine with trading Randa and Casey for salary purposes, but I don't envision them getting much in the way of major league talent in return. Those guys just are not real valuable commodities.

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2005, 07:41 PM
The Reds seem to do a good job of finding/developing young outfielders. What makes you think they wouldn't find quality replacements for Dunn and Pena?

Because the Reds have zero outfield prospects above high-A. .900+ OPS players don't grow on trees.

riddelde
07-04-2005, 07:45 PM
In theory perhaps. But last time I checked the A's had Billy Beane as their GM, while the Reds GM is just a vegetable.


I can't really dispute you there. O'Brien makes it tough for me to advocate trading our OFs because I question his judgment, but I still think it's the appropriate course of action for a small market team to take.

riddelde
07-04-2005, 07:54 PM
Because the Reds have zero outfield prospects above high-A. .900+ OPS players don't grow on trees.


I agree with you that OPS studs don't grow on trees.

Believe me, I love Dunn and Pena. I think they both have the chance to be superstars for a long time.

But I also want to win ballgames. Pitchings wins games. Outfielders are nice, but pitching is a more valuable commodity.

Look at the Nats. Their lineup blows, but then you glance up at the standings and there they are in first place. Why is that? Because they've developed a great young closer and have made some solid trades for Patterson, Armas, Drese, Livan Hernandez etc.

Are the A's winning now because of a potent lineup? NO. They're red hot because they developed Zito, Harden and Blanton, and made a brilliant trade for Danny Haren.

I definitely think the Reds need to do a better job of developing pitching, but pitching can also be acquired via trade with some savvy trading.

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2005, 08:05 PM
The A's are averaging over 5 runs per game since June...when their hot streak started. Before that, the offense was not producing, and as a result, they were 10 games under .500.

It takes good pitching and hitting to win.

riddelde
07-04-2005, 08:13 PM
The A's are averaging over 5 runs per game since June...when their hot streak started. Before that, the offense was not producing, and as a result, they were 10 games under .500.

It takes good pitching and hitting to win.



Fair enough. I won't dispute that, but I think an offense in 2006 with Griffey, Lopez, Encarnacion, and Kearns would hold up ok.

Factor in a couple young positional players acquired via trade, and the Reds offense would be fine. Can't be any worse than the collection of rookies that the Braves are succeeding with right now, or the group of journeymen bats out in DC who are currently sitting in first place.

SteelSD
07-04-2005, 08:20 PM
Look at the Nats. Their lineup blows, but then you glance up at the standings and there they are in first place. Why is that? Because they've developed a great young closer and have made some solid trades for Patterson, Armas, Drese, Livan Hernandez etc.

Which .900 OPS monsters did the Expos trade away to acquire Patterson, Drese, and Hernandez? And no, Armas hasn't been productive for a while now and has to absolutely be considered a huge disappointment.

They're a case study in how a team can acquire pitchers without having to give up it's top offensive studs.

And BTW, Washington is also a case study in pythag fun and games. They're going to fall. They're going to fall hard. And it's going to be their offense that does it to them. No doubt.

riddelde
07-04-2005, 08:38 PM
Which .900 OPS monsters did the Expos trade away to acquire Patterson, Drese, and Hernandez? And no, Armas hasn't been productive for a while now and has to absolutely be considered a huge disappointment.

They're a case study in how a team can acquire pitchers without having to give up it's top offensive studs.



That's certainly a great point, and one that I overlooked.

If the Reds are able to move Casey, Randa, Aurilia, Mercker etc, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that they target a few underperforming talents in the Patterson/Drese mold.

SteelSD
07-04-2005, 08:43 PM
That's certainly a great point, and one that I overlooked.

If the Reds are able to move Casey, Randa, Aurilia, Mercker etc, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that they target a few underperforming talents in the Patterson/Drese mold.

Yep. I'd be looking under rocks right now and trying to first move the guys who are over/under on contract/production value and then the guys who don't look to stay beyond this season.

That's not to say that I wouldn't work a deal for any of the young guys if the talent offer overwhelmed me of course.

Of course, if Dan O'Brien is looking under rocks for gold nuggets, he's more apt to grab all the pyrite he can carry. I want him a billion miles away from Cinci before anyone gets dealt. And maybe the guy is under a no-trade hold from above. Considering that pretty much everything he's done (sans Randa) has blown up in his face, that might be the logical thing for Allen to doing right now.

Redmachine2003
07-04-2005, 08:55 PM
Because the Reds have zero outfield prospects above high-A. .900+ OPS players don't grow on trees.Kearns and Denorfia say Hi. I would consider both outfield prospects even though Kearns has played up in the majors he still has not reached his potential and is still cheap. Unless Dunns signs a lowball long term contract by July 31 st I think he is gone. Stratton would also like a chance at left field.

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2005, 09:00 PM
Who are some of the John Patterson types out there that could be ready to break out anytime? Like the Nats, these are the type of guys the Reds should target if they won't sign an ace caliber pitcher on the free agent market.

Jesse Foppert, Giants
Jerome Williams, Cubs
Jason Jennings, Rockies
Joel Pineiro, Mariners
Jason Davis, Indians

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2005, 09:05 PM
Kearns and Denorfia say Hi. I would consider both outfield prospects even though Kearns has played up in the majors he still has not reached his potential and is still cheap. Unless Dunns signs a lowball long term contract by July 31 st I think he is gone. Stratton would also like a chance at left field.

Most reports I've read on Denorfia have him projecting as a 4th outfielder. As for Stratton, he has no OBP skills at all. Career .318 minor league OBP. He looks like a four-A or MLB bench player.

riddelde
07-04-2005, 09:11 PM
Who are some of the John Patterson types out there that could be ready to break out anytime? Like the Nats, these are the type of guys the Reds should target if they won't sign a big name FA.

Jesse Foppert, Giants
Jerome Williams, Cubs
Jason Jennings, Rockies
Joel Pineiro, Mariners
Jason Davis, Indians



Jerome Williams. God, the Reds could have gotten him for nothing. Now he's a Cub, and they love his progress so far. The Cubs gave up Latroy freaking Hawkins for him.

What about Edwin Jackson? I'd toss Aaron Heilman in there as well.

What about one of those young D-Rays....Brazelton?

What's the mood on CC Sabathia in Cleveland? Are they down on him at all?

riddelde
07-04-2005, 09:20 PM
other names:

Rafael Soriano
Matt Riley
Juan Cruz
Gavin Floyd
Brad Hennessey

baboone
07-07-2005, 10:41 AM
As someone else said, he's up to bat a lot without runners on (more than with runners on). In addition, he lead off inning more than any other player on the team.

It's very very difficult to hit in runners when no one is on base.

If you want, I'll look up the numbers; I've done it so much that it's getting tiresome.

You're missing the point, DanO Jr. Dunn could bring the Reds a staff ace, something this team hasn't had in over 10 years. He's putting up numbers and he's still cheap, which is why his trade value is so high right now. But don't worry, DanO probably won't trade him until he's about to become a free agent and making $15 million a season. I'm sure we can still get a couple of Bongs and a Mota for him then. If you want to look up numbers, why don't you look up this one: 1. That's the number of starting pitchers the Reds have developed in the last 10 years. By the time the Reds develop another one, Dunn will be retired. It's the pitching, genius.

BadFundamentals
07-07-2005, 11:11 AM
Dunn bashing - Dunn idolizing. Surely there's a middle ground. I admire everyone's passion on the one hand, but I don't know why it always has to turn so bitter.

It's the same way the Griffey discussions used to go.
Because Dunn does everything to such extremes it causes each of us to go to that quiet place where we ponder the great questions, like what is it that truly leads to WINNING baseball?

Dunn's game is commentary on power, on base pct., defense, strikeouts, versatility, leadership qualitites etc. etc.. You name it and Dunn's game is there in the extreme one way or the other.

:bang: :bang: :D :evil: :D :bang: :bang:

seligstinks
07-08-2005, 12:51 AM
The Reds' front office did not say the team was "small market" until Marge lost control of the team and John Allen, the flunky for the greedy limited partners, was hired. Before that the Reds had a BIG payroll some years. Apparently some of the money the Reds used to spend on players has disappeared into the Bermuda Triangle- or the Twilight Zone- or perhaps greedy owners' pockets.

Keep Dunn, fire Narron, Allen, and O'Brien! And Lindner should sell out to someone who wants to WIN ballgames, nor make more $$ even though he already is a billionaire!

westofyou
07-08-2005, 01:05 AM
The Reds' front office did not say the team was "small market" until Marge lost control of the team and John Allen,

You don't have to say what the numbers scream.

Jpup
07-08-2005, 05:02 AM
The Reds' front office did not say the team was "small market" until Marge lost control of the team and John Allen, the flunky for the greedy limited partners, was hired. Before that the Reds had a BIG payroll some years. Apparently some of the money the Reds used to spend on players has disappeared into the Bermuda Triangle- or the Twilight Zone- or perhaps greedy owners' pockets.

Keep Dunn, fire Narron, Allen, and O'Brien! And Lindner should sell out to someone who wants to WIN ballgames, nor make more $$ even though he already is a billionaire!

at least you stay on message. ;)

money isn't the problem. The Minnesota Twins say hello. :wave:

Pitching, pitching, pitching...then a catcher.

:feedback: The thread has some legs. It was a very good article.

buckeyenut
07-08-2005, 07:20 AM
Most reports I've read on Denorfia have him projecting as a 4th outfielder. As for Stratton, he has no OBP skills at all. Career .318 minor league OBP. He looks like a four-A or MLB bench player.

I don't think it is fair to assess Stratton on his career numbers. It was very obviously that middle of last year, there was a dramatic change in his game. Obviously, he needs more time to prove himself after the injury, but I wouldn't disregard him just because of his career OBP.

And what about Kenny Kelly?

achilles
07-10-2005, 12:55 AM
Trading Dunn is the opposite of what this club should do. Therefore, I expect it to happen.

KearnsyEars
07-10-2005, 07:42 PM
Keep Dunn, fire Narron, Allen, and O'Brien! And Lindner should sell out to someone who wants to WIN ballgames, nor make more $$ even though he already is a billionaire!


yeah

Aronchis
07-10-2005, 08:21 PM
Yeah, Lindner is sure making money, considering they took money in the 2003 trades to payoff old debts and the Reds consistant, poorly managed operations sure is bringing in the dough from all those happy fans from a yearly winning team.

KearnsyEars
07-11-2005, 11:12 AM
Trading Dunn is the opposite of what this club should do. Therefore, I expect it to happen.


no doubt. don't know why this guy has gotten bashed in rep points, he is the man and speaks the truth.