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View Full Version : And THAT is what Dunn needs to learn



RedsManRick
07-21-2005, 04:08 PM
I'm a huge Dunn fan and love his overall game -- but the man needs to learn some situational hitting; with 1 out, 2 strikes, bases loaded, and Aurilia up behind you, you have to protect the plate. I swear, Dunn will never drive in 100 runs until he puts the bat on the ball on a regular basis. If the count was full, I could understand taking that pitch as a ball drives in a run, but that was ridiculous. ARRGH!

Benihana
07-21-2005, 04:10 PM
Agreed

pedro
07-21-2005, 04:11 PM
um, dunn drove in 102 runs last year.

But I agree that he needs to learn to protect the plate better with 2 strikes.

bthomasiscool
07-21-2005, 04:12 PM
He drove in 102 last year...agree with you though about situational hitting

bthomasiscool
07-21-2005, 04:13 PM
beat me to it pedro :doh:

RedsManRick
07-21-2005, 04:36 PM
I was inferring on a regular basis -- shame on me for not knowing the numbers -- point still stands. With 45 bombs or whatever he hit, he should be driving in 115-120, not 102 -- especially if Narron insists on batting him lower in the order.

M2
07-21-2005, 04:41 PM
um, dunn drove in 102 runs last year.

But I agree that he needs to learn to protect the plate better with 2 strikes.

What pedro said.

And he'd drive in over 100 runs every season if the Reds hit him 3-5 in the lineup without making ANY adjustments. Hitting #6 it becomes a dicey proposition.

pedro
07-21-2005, 04:46 PM
I was inferring on a regular basis -- shame on me for not knowing the numbers -- point still stands. With 45 bombs or whatever he hit, he should be driving in 115-120, not 102 -- especially if Narron insists on batting him lower in the order.

Well, the lower in the order doesn't really fly. He doesn't have as many RBI opportunities in the 6 hole as he would if he were batting 3-5.

RedsManRick
07-21-2005, 05:05 PM
No, but when he does have those opportunities, he needs to take them -- because the guys hitting behind him are a heck of a lot less likely to drive HIM in should he walk.

OSURedLeg
07-21-2005, 05:11 PM
The whole problem I have with Dunn hitting 6th is not so much that he has less RBI opportunities (because he has plenty with the quality of hitters ahead of him), rather it is the pitches he sees with the hitters that follow him. Without a hitter like Griffey behind him, pitchers are much more inclined to give him nothing to hit because if they walk him, there's no one behind him that is going to do damage with runners on base. This wouldn't be nearly as large of a problem, if Wily Mo would not be struggling. But I think Wily is struggling partly because he, like Dunn, isn't getting much to hit because the pitchers aren't afraid of going after Larue. It will be nice to see a revamped Austin Kearns to keep the pitching honest, and I think it would be beneficial to see Dunn hitting ahead of Kearns so the pitchers have to give him something to hit.

pedro
07-21-2005, 05:12 PM
No, but when he does have those opportunities, he needs to take them -- because the guys hitting behind him are a heck of a lot less likely to drive HIM in should he walk.

well that's the managers fault for batting him so low, not dunn's for having good plate judgement. regardless, as I said before I would like him to try and become a better 2 strike hitter.

M2
07-21-2005, 05:32 PM
No, but when he does have those opportunities, he needs to take them -- because the guys hitting behind him are a heck of a lot less likely to drive HIM in should he walk.

Adam Dunn walked into today's game 15th in the NL in RBIs. Every single guy in front of him hits in a prime spot in the batting order. So Dunn's producing more RBIs than the cleanup hitters on some teams and no lower lineup hitter in the NL has more RBIs than he does. If he isn't making the most of his lower lineup opportunities then that animal doesn't exist.

creek14
07-21-2005, 05:35 PM
Because Dunn is the only one who had a non-productive AB today.

KearnsyEars
07-21-2005, 05:38 PM
agreed and he really heard about it at the game....rough day for our dunn

RedsManRick
07-21-2005, 05:52 PM
I'm not sure where to look exactly, but I'd be interested to see what percentage of RISP Dunn has driven in and what percentage of Runners on base he's driven in.

A quick look says that he's 7th in SLG% (.556) and 15th in RBI. He's tied for 15th with Pedro Feliz (.449) and Adam LaRoche (.487). The Reds have the 4th highest team OBP% in the NL, while SF and Atlanta have the 9th and 13th respectively, so I'm gonna guess that Dunn hitting lower in our order is about the same as those guys hitting in the heart of theirs in terms of RBI opportunity. Given his SLG%, why has he not converted more?

If I have some time later, I'll come back and dig up these conversion rates.

But the real point of the thread is the lack of situational hitting. I don't mind the high K totals and definitely see the value in walks (I've argued this point in fact). However, in the situaiton he was in today (only 2 balls, Aurilia behind him, bases loaded, 1 out, down a single run) he cannot be looking at a 3rd strike.

Obviously it didn't matter in the whole scheme of things today. I still think Dunn is an offensive force. But instead of saying he needs to cut down on his K's, I'm just trying to make the point that he needs better situational awareness. It's his thinking in that situation that bugs me.

traderumor
07-21-2005, 05:55 PM
So flip flop Dunn and Aurilia, say that Aurilia struck out and Dunn flied out because of a diving catch. Would that make anyone feel any better? Or, if he swings at it and doesn't get on, then folks complain "because he swung at a ball." Looking at called third strikes is a part of the game and it sounds like this was a close pitch. I think it is oversimplifying to say its a matter of protecting the plate. Even if the pitch was taken in error by the hitter, is that any different than if he gets his pitch and just gets under it and pops it up? Dunn is an excellent hitter, many just don't understand how that conclusion is arrived at.

MikeS21
07-21-2005, 06:06 PM
But the real point of the thread is the lack of situational hitting. I don't mind the high K totals and definitely see the value in walks (I've argued this point in fact). However, in the situaiton he was in today (only 2 balls, Aurilia behind him, bases loaded, 1 out, down a single run) he cannot be looking at a 3rd strike.

Obviously it didn't matter in the whole scheme of things today. I still think Dunn is an offensive force. But instead of saying he needs to cut down on his K's, I'm just trying to make the point that he needs better situational awareness. It's his thinking in that situation that bugs me.
I don't think you can arbitrarily pick out one AB where a player "fails" and pick on the outcome because you don't like it. Reality says that even a guy with a .400 OBP, will "fail" 60% of the time.

Dunn had a disappointing AB today. Tomorrow, he could be in a similar situation, and that pitch gets called a ball. Or he whacks that pitch out of the ballpark. Dunn's production this year with RISP is not as bad as this one lone AB indicates.

westofyou
07-21-2005, 06:19 PM
Dunn had a disappointing AB today. Tomorrow, he could be in a similar situation, and that pitch gets called a ball. Or he whacks that pitch out of the ballpark. Dunn's production this year with RISP is not as bad as this one lone AB indicates.

Yep, 170 PA's with runners on and he has 43 BB in that situation and 5 HBP. Tells me they don't want to pitch to him.

28% of the time he doesn't even get a chance to hit. Hence the walk.

BTW if all Dunn had was those 170 PA's with Runners on he'd still lead the team in walks.

RedsManRick
07-21-2005, 06:22 PM
I agree you can judge his season on that one AB. I'm claiming that the at bat is indicative of how Dunn generally does not make the best use of his skills. My hypothesis is that given Dunn's OBP% SLG%, and the RBI opportunities he's had, he's driven in fewer runs than one would expect.

I'd like to see if the stats justify this claim. I'll dig it up later tonight and see if my hypothesis is right. The other part of this arguement however is that if it is Dunn's natural proclivity to take the pitch regardless of the situation, this needs to be taken advantage of by hitting him in a spot where there are guys who can drive him in hitting behind him.

Freel
Lopez
Junior
Dunn
Kearns
Casey
Randa/EE
Larue/Valentin
Pitcher

It would be a beautiful thing...

Johnny Footstool
07-21-2005, 06:41 PM
Or, if he swings at it and doesn't get on, then folks complain "because he swung at a ball."

Excellent point!

Shaggy Sanchez
07-21-2005, 06:50 PM
I was inferring on a regular basis -- shame on me for not knowing the numbers -- point still stands. With 45 bombs or whatever he hit, he should be driving in 115-120, not 102 -- especially if Narron insists on batting him lower in the order.

Even with 45 HRs there still has to be someone on base for him to drive in. I hear people say all he does is hit solo HRs, well is that really his fault? Look at the lineup he was hitting in last year, with all of the injuries who was there to get on base in front of him? Pitchers aren't going to give Dunn good pitches to hit when there are men on base they are going to pitch around him which would explain why he does hit more solo shots than not.

Ravenlord
07-21-2005, 07:04 PM
"i know the offense isn't the problem, but i'm going to complain about it anyway. as well, i'm going to make sure there's complaining once a week about the most productive cog in the non-problem offense i'm complaining about"

:bang:

M2
07-21-2005, 07:11 PM
"i know the offense isn't the problem, but i'm going to complain about it anyway. as well, i'm going to make sure there's complaining once a week about the most productive cog in the non-problem offense i'm complaining about"

Great line.

RedsManRick
07-21-2005, 07:27 PM
Yup, only the players the suck should be trying to get better. I guess we have to stick the "Milton gives up lots of homers" and "Casey hits a lot of singles" threads.

In light of the fact that Dunn is about to get 8-9M a year, I think it should be fair to discuss where he has room to improve.

TRF
07-21-2005, 10:27 PM
ok, here is the point....










...and here is the Dunn bashers. Yes. Dunn should work on his two strike approach. Any guesses how many RBI and BB's he might have in the three hole with Lopez in front of him and Griffey behind him?

The thing is, this has been beat to death. Can't we disect WMP's swing for a while, or discuss FeLo's improved defense? How about Valentin's emergence as a really good backup catcher? Belisle: Starter or reliever? The Lizard pitching well in L'ville, Why isn't Booker on the ML roster? Why has the Chatt team been so bad?

Let's give Dunn the rest of the month off.

forfreelin04
07-22-2005, 01:47 AM
I totally agree with you TRF. But it's hard to pass up a post when the player in question is a premier "fan favorite." Not saying that there aren't valid arguements on any side because I certainly feel you can make a case that Dunn is a poor situational hitter and also make a case that he's not. But, because he is a fan favorite fans/baseball fanatics will go out of there way to prove him innocent or guilty. Guilty because fans want him to give more than he already has, which I believe is already plenty. He is a power hitter. Power hitter's hit homeruns. Dunn leads the team in HR. On the opposite side of the coin, Sean Casey is a contact hitter. Sean Casey is batting above .300. Sometimes you just cannot ask more of a hitter who is doing what we all know he is most capable of.

Lastly an important thing to note is that everyone on the team is supposed to produce regardless of situation. Dunn may not produce when putting the ball into play is needed, but he is arguably capable of producing a run by himself in every single at bat at better odds than anyone else on the ballclub.

SunDeck
07-22-2005, 08:55 AM
um, dunn drove in 102 runs last year.

But I agree that he needs to learn to protect the plate better with 2 strikes.

Dunn is not a completely unpackaged product yet, and instances like this illustrate that. I have felt that the advantage Kearns has over Dunn is in his baseball instincts; he seems more of a ballplayer to me than the big donkey, who just doesn't seem to grasp the game as well yet. He will eventually, but having only played ball seriously for about five years, he's got some learning to do.

He'll get there eventually, but it's something he has to keep working on.

M2
07-22-2005, 10:16 AM
Yup, only the players the suck should be trying to get better. I guess we have to stick the "Milton gives up lots of homers" and "Casey hits a lot of singles" threads.

In light of the fact that Dunn is about to get 8-9M a year, I think it should be fair to discuss where he has room to improve.

Then try discussing it without tossing in whoppers like "I swear, Dunn will never drive in 100 runs until he puts the bat on the ball on a regular basis."

That's wrong. Put him in a primo RBI slot and he'd blast past the 100-RBI with regularity. On top of that, he's already driven in 100 runs (2004) and he's the best lower lineup RBI man in the NL (better than a good chunk of the cleanup hitters out there).

I totally agree Dunn needs to improve his two-strike approach. I don't know of anyone on this board who doesn't agree with that. Why it needs to be carped about everytime he whiffs escapes me. It's tiresome and the subsequent leaps into fantasy people take from that widely agreed upon point long ago passed the threshold of sanity.

MikeS21
07-22-2005, 10:34 AM
Part of the reason Dunn gets pushed to the low end of the batting order is his two strike approach. However, it would seem to me that if you moved him up to clean-up hitter, pitchers would pitch him differently and then all this talk about two strike approach would fade.

RedsManRick
07-22-2005, 11:17 AM
Obviously a post out of frustration and the 100 rbi statement was a bit of hyperbole. The point was simply that Dunn is driving in less people than he ought to, even given his slot in the order to date, because of his approach with RISP. I was hoping somebody with the numbers handy would check out his RBI/RISP rate. That said, if we only post on "new" topics, then the board is going to be awfully quiet. I'm sorry that I haven't read every other post about Dunn's approach with 2 strikes and RISP and not posted in deference to them.

This is a board with an essentially unlimited space for posts. If a post is repetetive, don't reply and just let it fall off the first page. The posting and reposting of complaints about Dunn does nothing to stop other posts about Lopez's improving but still incosistent arm, Casey's AWOL power, Milton's massive suckitude, Freels role upon returning, Narron's secret love affair with Rich Aurilia, Pedro Cerrano's supposed lack of marbles, etc.

Sea Ray
07-22-2005, 11:22 AM
Adam Dunn walked into today's game 15th in the NL in RBIs. Every single guy in front of him hits in a prime spot in the batting order. So Dunn's producing more RBIs than the cleanup hitters on some teams and no lower lineup hitter in the NL has more RBIs than he does. If he isn't making the most of his lower lineup opportunities then that animal doesn't exist.

The reason he has as many RBIs as he does is because of his tremendous power which is not in dispute. He ought to have twice his HR number in RBIs just from the HRs alone. His RBI hitting when he's not hitting the ball over the fence is still quite shaky.

SteelSD
07-22-2005, 11:28 AM
The reason he has as many RBIs as he does is because of his tremendous power which is not in dispute. He ought to have twice his HR number in RBIs just from the HRs alone. His RBI hitting when he's not hitting the ball over the fence is still quite shaky.

Adam Dunn's RISP Batting Average is two Singles off his overall Batting Average.

How many RBI you think two Singles is worth? Twenty? Thirty?

Seriously, all this complaining over two stinkin' Singles that aren't even guaranteed to drive in a Run much less facilitate some HUGE jump in his RBI numbers.

MWM
07-22-2005, 11:36 AM
The point was simply that Dunn is driving in less people than he ought to,

How many "ought" he drive in? Not trying to be difficult here, but if you're going to make statements like these, it helps to understand what you think is acceptable. You mentioned you were going to do the research yourself. It would be helpful to support your position and understand better your frustration if you had some kind of detail to back it up.


I was hoping somebody with the numbers handy would check out his RBI/RISP rate.

That's where a lot of folks part ways with your opinion here. I'm not sure what this measure is actually going to tell you. RISP is an arbitrary measure. It's an incomplete picture at best of a player's run producing ability. It doesn't consider how many runs he drives in just with men on base and also by his high HR totals.

Also, I think it's always been assumed that somehow a player should change his approach with RISP (btw, I really disllike the term "scoring position". It's very misleading jargon that worked its way into the game and won't ever leave). Does anyone ever ask the question, "does having a different approach with RISP produce more runs in the long run?" I don't think many people do. How should their approach change? Should it be just making contact? And who's to say that having the same old approach they always have in those situations isn't likely to lead to success more often than this revised approach where they're just trying to get their bat on the ball? It's one of those things that is assumed without ever scrutinizing the assumption to see if it's accurate. I believe that most of the time, the player is more liekly to generate a positive result by using the approach they use in most ABs.

There are some situations, such as tie game, man on third, less than two outs, late in a one run or tie game where this type of approach is the right thing to do. But I also believe those situations are very few and far between throughout the course of a season.

And I also don't buy the "regardless of his position in the order" belief. There's more to the situation than number of runners. If you want to look at "situational" hitting, you can't just stop at the number of runners, you have to look at the situation in its entirety - such as who is hitting behind him and how that's affecting how he's getting pitched to. Just a quick glance at his BA compared to his OBP in those situations screams he's not seeing anything to hit.

flyer85
07-22-2005, 11:42 AM
BTW, anyone care to venture what Red is leading the Reds in RISP?

westofyou
07-22-2005, 11:43 AM
Dunn is second on the team in ab's with no one on, 188 and 5th on the team with runners on.

Sean Casey is 1st and has 36 RBI's in 158 AB's... roughly 1 RBI every 4.3 ab's Dunn averages 1 every 2.9 ab.

Someones not getting the job done and it's because of their approach.

Problem is it isn't always Dunn.

OldRightHander
07-22-2005, 01:32 PM
Dunn is second on the team in ab's with no one on, 188 and 5th on the team with runners on.

Sean Casey is 1st and has 36 RBI's in 158 AB's... roughly 1 RBI every 4.3 ab's Dunn averages 1 every 2.9 ab.

Someones not getting the job done and it's because of their approach.

Problem is it isn't always Dunn.

Darn it WOY, there you go again, confusing the issue by introducing facts. You should know better by now. ;)

Johnny Footstool
07-22-2005, 02:04 PM
Seriously, all this complaining over two stinkin' Singles that aren't even guaranteed to drive in a Run much less facilitate some HUGE jump in his RBI numbers.

Good point.

On a related note, I think most the complaining about Dunn stems from the fact that *he's not good at hitting singles.* He's good at pretty much everything else, but not at hitting singles.

registerthis
07-22-2005, 02:32 PM
I really don't understand the aversion some people seem to have when the suggestion is raised that Dunn might could potentially stand to work on his discipline at the plate. No one's saying that he isn't producing now--the statistics say otherwise. And no one's saying that the pitching isn't the biggest reason--by far--that this team is so godawful.

I'm not going to start the "productive outs" debate again--that's been hammered on enough already. But in reading some people's posts it is almost as if the very suggestion that Dunn is not the most complete hitter he could be repulses them. His stats are very good--and his production for hitting so low in the lineup is very good as well. But there is certainly room for improvement.

And, BTW, no the offense isn't the problem with this team, but that hasn't stopped a plethora of "trade Casey" threads over the past several weeks.

gm
07-22-2005, 02:41 PM
Every spring Dunn talks about using the whole field and making contact w/RISP

And every summer he watches strike 3 go by and turns to stare at the umpire

Talk is cheap. Take your full swings when there's 0-1 strikes. Otherwise, shorten up and look to LF. There are runs to be driven in, in that direction

Wily Mo? Same formula, just substitute RF for LF

RedsManRick
07-22-2005, 03:10 PM
I said I'd do the research until everybody proceeded to tear me a new one for suggesting that Dunn could improve the rate at which he drives in runs by expanding his strike zone with 2 strikes, a runner on third base, and 1 out. I wasn't trying to say Dunn was a bad run producer. I was trying to say he could be better and that he wasn't taking the best advantage of his amazing talent. I said it was a hypothesis, didn't mean to state it as undeniable fact.

I'm fully aware of the intracacies of the points listed by MWM. Saying that a guy can improve in a given situation does not say you don't think he's doing well already, or doing many other things well. The reason we nitpick with Dunn is because of his massive talent, young age, and pivotal role in the organization. Sure, we could analyze Aurilia all day, but who cares? This started as a post about a specific situation highlighting the downside of Dunn's extreme patience at the plate in specific situations.

We were down 1 run. We had runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out and some not so great hitters coming up behind him. Dunn on 1st base (via a walk) is the 7th run -- a run that is MUCH less import than #5 and #6 in this scenario. A groundball to the right side or fly ball ties it. A hit gives us the lead. Dunn only has a 2 ball count, so a ball doesn't put him on base. Dunn should at least be protecting the plate in this situation.

Every post about Dunn shouldn't have to turn in to a huge debate. He is a monster. Walks are in many cases as good as a single. Dunn should be hitting higher in the order to maximize both his power and on base percentage. These are things I think we all agree on. So should the point that Dunn could increase his RBI totals by changing his approach siutationally. Perhaps he simply can't do that and attempting to do so would negatively affect his approach overall, leading to fewer walks. Fine, make that point. But don't just complain that we can't talk about a place where a guy can improve his game. If you want to read about somebody/something else, then post about it instead of having this debate.

registerthis
07-22-2005, 04:02 PM
Every post about Dunn shouldn't have to turn in to a huge debate. He is a monster. Walks are in many cases as good as a single. Dunn should be hitting higher in the order to maximize both his power and on base percentage. These are things I think we all agree on. So should the point that Dunn could increase his RBI totals by changing his approach siutationally. Perhaps he simply can't do that and attempting to do so would negatively affect his approach overall, leading to fewer walks. Fine, make that point. But don't just complain that we can't talk about a place where a guy can improve his game. If you want to read about somebody/something else, then post about it instead of having this debate.
Seems reasonable to me...

BlfdVaFan
07-22-2005, 07:20 PM
Dunn left 7 runners in scoring position yesterday. It will not matter where he bats as long as he continues to leave them on. He needs to quit whining and start swinging that big stick.

pedro
07-22-2005, 07:29 PM
Dunn left 7 runners in scoring position yesterday. It will not matter where he bats as long as he continues to leave them on. He needs to quit whining and start swinging that big stick.

No, he left seven runners on base, not in scoring position. Not a good day obviously but I have no idea what "whining" you are talking about. Do you care to elaborate?

MWM
07-22-2005, 10:42 PM
I don't think anyone tore anyone a new one. People simply disagreed and expressed the disagreement. That's the way things work.

And no one thinks Adam Dunn is a perfect player or couldn't use to get get better. That person doesn't exist Yet we keep hearing about how people won't admit that he has holes or that people think he's perfect. But this is simply not true. People usually respond to specific allegations about his game that usually fall down in the face of scrutiny. It only appears that people defend him at all cost because those same allegations manifest themselves constantly in Reds country. But NO ONE believes he doesn't have room for improvement.

Sea Ray
07-23-2005, 12:01 AM
Adam Dunn's RISP Batting Average is two Singles off his overall Batting Average.

How many RBI you think two Singles is worth? Twenty? Thirty?

Seriously, all this complaining over two stinkin' Singles that aren't even guaranteed to drive in a Run much less facilitate some HUGE jump in his RBI numbers.

That's the problem. His overall BA is Dave Kingman like. He's too talented a hitter to hit .240. If his avg with RISP is two singles off of .240 then that's nothing to brag about.

I know this board is very sensitive about Dunn criticisms. I love the guy. I just think he's talented enough to be an All Star and it's things like his .240 avg and his RISP hitting that's keeping him from the All Star game year in and year out.

I am also on record as saying that he absolutely should be hitting #3 in the order for a number of reasons which have been discussed at length on this board.

TRF
07-23-2005, 12:23 AM
That's the problem. His overall BA is Dave Kingman like. He's too talented a hitter to hit .240. If his avg with RISP is two singles off of .240 then that's nothing to brag about.

I know this board is very sensitive about Dunn criticisms. I love the guy. I just think he's talented enough to be an All Star and it's things like his .240 avg and his RISP hitting that's keeping him from the All Star game year in and year out.

OBP RISP .456
OBP RISP 2 OUT .540

I'm not sure this can be made clearer. Runners in scoring position, 2 outs AD make an out a mere 46% of the time. He did his job. And if every Red could do that, the Reds would score a kajillion runs.

Which is of course what they desperately need... more offense.

SteelSD
07-23-2005, 12:31 AM
That's the problem. His overall BA is Dave Kingman like. He's too talented a hitter to hit .240. If his avg with RISP is two singles off of .240 then that's nothing to brag about.

I know this board is very sensitive about Dunn criticisms. I love the guy. I just think he's talented enough to be an All Star and it's things like his .240 avg and his RISP hitting that's keeping him from the All Star game year in and year out.

I am also on record as saying that he absolutely should be hitting #3 in the order for a number of reasons which have been discussed at length on this board.

At least you're honest about what your complaint is (his overall BA). That's a positive at least and really what it all boils down to- Batting Average.

But then, Batting Average is a poor measure of performance- either overall BA or situationally-isolated Hit rate.

This board isn't so sensitive to Dunn criticisms as it is reactive when someone complains about a non-issue.

Everyone certainly feels that any player has something he can work on to improve his game. But the fact of the matter is that we constantly hear about the wrong things regarding Dunn- like two Singles he doesn't have or that his overall BA is somehow a problem for the most productive offensive player on the team, and one of the top 15 offensive players in the game.

flyer85
07-23-2005, 12:59 AM
BTW, Aurilia leads the Reds in batting average with RISP. I guess he needs to be signed to a long term immediately

Sea Ray
07-23-2005, 02:25 AM
BTW, Aurilia leads the Reds in batting average with RISP. I guess he needs to be signed to a long term immediately

Let's hope another team is real impressed with that before July 31st ;)

Garrett
07-23-2005, 08:39 AM
What in the heck is everyone talking about. There's not a team in the major leagues that wouldn't want this gun (Dunn, thought this thread seems to be evolving into a Aurelia whine) in the arsenal.
My only question is why isn't he batting higher in the order?

creek14
07-23-2005, 08:54 AM
And Dunn's downward spiral continues. He left a runner on base during his last AB last night. Scum.

;)

SunDeck
07-23-2005, 09:10 AM
And Dunn's downward spiral continues. He left a runner on base during his last AB last night. Scum.

;)

His trade value is zippo, nada, goose-eggy stuff. Give him a jump suit and tell him to start hauling equipment and bags for Stowie.

RFS62
07-23-2005, 10:18 AM
And Dunn's downward spiral continues. He left a runner on base during his last AB last night. Scum.

;)


Our season long national nightmare continues.

RedsManRick
07-23-2005, 10:43 AM
OBP RISP .456
OBP RISP 2 OUT .540

I'm not sure this can be made clearer. Runners in scoring position, 2 outs AD make an out a mere 46% of the time. He did his job. And if every Red could do that, the Reds would score a kajillion runs.

Which is of course what they desperately need... more offense.

The real story here, and really the heart of the thread, is that if Dunn is taking a walk with 2 out and RISP, and Aurilia or LaRue is behind him, we may have been better off with Dunn putting wood on the ball. Even with his eye, it's obvious he's getting pitched around and by batting him low in the order Miley/Narron are allowing this to be a viable strategy.

Chip R
07-23-2005, 11:02 AM
That's the problem. His overall BA is Dave Kingman like. He's too talented a hitter to hit .240. If his avg with RISP is two singles off of .240 then that's nothing to brag about.

I know this board is very sensitive about Dunn criticisms. I love the guy. I just think he's talented enough to be an All Star and it's things like his .240 avg and his RISP hitting that's keeping him from the All Star game year in and year out.You seem to be fixated on batting average as a measure of a hitter's worth. I'm not going to go into all the same arguments we have here on what seems to be a weekly basis so I'll play your game and delve into the batting average statistic just a bit more. As most people know, batting average is a percentage that is used to show what percent of the time a batter gets a base hit minus walks, sacrifices and times he's hit by a pitch. So if you have 100 at bats and you have 50 hits you are getting a hit 50% of the time or batting .500. If you get 100 ABs and get 30 base hits you are getting a hit 30% of the time or batting .300 - which is the gold standard for most major league players. Somoene like Adam Dunn gets a hit approximately 24 times for every 100 ABs he has. So he gets a hit around 24% of the time. Now let's think about that for a minute. Most players get about 500 ABs a year if they are playing on a regular basis. For Dunn to be a .300 hitter he would have to get a hit 6% more often. That rounds out to about 30 hits more per season. But I think even folks like you think that isn't a reality for Dunn. So let's set a more realistic goal for Dunn. You'd probably be happier if he hit .270, right? For Dunn to hit .270 he would have to get a hit only 3% more often than he does now. Let's put 3% into perspective. 3% of a dollar is 3 cents. 3% of a day is about 45 minutes. 3% more hits for every 500 ABs is 15 more hits. That's all. If he were able to get 15 more hits a year he'd be right up there with Hall of Famers like Johnny Bench who got a hit 26.7% of the time. Or even Tony Perez who got a hit 27.9% of the time. Maybe he could even do as well as Ernie Banks who hit safely 27.4% of the time. Or even Reggie Jackson who hit safely 26.2% of the time.

If you think batting average is a great stat to use, that's fine. But realize what it measures and what it does not measure. Sure, Dunn's hitting .240 but he gets on base a lot and no matter which stats you worship, getting on base is always a good thing. Why? Because the guy behind the player who gets on base can drive him in. If Dunn walks and Wily Mo Pena hits a home run, isn't that better than if Dunn didn't get on base at all? I'd always rather have 2 runs than 1.

westofyou
07-23-2005, 11:03 AM
The real story here, and really the heart of the thread, is that if Dunn is taking a walk with 2 out and RISP, and Aurilia or LaRue is behind him, we may have been better off with Dunn putting wood on the ball.

Aadm Dunn the last 2 years has rated as on of the worst out of the zone hitters in basball according to Baseball Info Solutions. Last year he hit .130 on balls that were not thrown as strikes, Juan Pierre last year hit .730 on balls outside of the zone, Furcal .714. Those are the type of hitters that usually excel in turning bad pitches into hits.

Dunn isn't.

They don't throw him strikes because they:

A. Are afraid of what he'll do with a strike.

B. They know what he'll do if he is tempted to swing at a bad pitch

C. A Walk looks better than the result from A.

RedsManRick
07-23-2005, 11:05 AM
Aadm Dunn the last 2 years has rated as on of the worst out of the zone hitters in basball according to Baseball Info Solutions. Last year he hit .130 on balls that were not thrown as strikes, Juan Pierre last year hit .730 on balls outside of the zone, Furcal .714. Those are the type of hitters that usually excel in turning bad pitches into hits.

Dunn isn't.

They don't throw him strikes because they:

A. Are afraid of what he'll do with a strike.

B. They know what he'll do if he is tempted to swing at a bad pitch

C. A Walk looks better than the result from A.

So we should be talking about how do we get Dunn more pitches in the zone when he's in an RBI situation. Batting him 6th is not the way to accomplish this.

Sea Ray
07-23-2005, 12:53 PM
If you think batting average is a great stat to use, that's fine. But realize what it measures and what it does not measure. Sure, Dunn's hitting .240 but he gets on base a lot and no matter which stats you worship, getting on base is always a good thing. Why? Because the guy behind the player who gets on base can drive him in. If Dunn walks and Wily Mo Pena hits a home run, isn't that better than if Dunn didn't get on base at all? I'd always rather have 2 runs than 1.

I don't think batting average is a great stat. It is one of many. Adam Dunn himself will tell you he should not be hitting .240. His walks are admirable and yes that is partly the result of where management has put him in the order. But what I want from a guy 6'6" and 275 lbs is run production. Walks rarely drive in runs and that is what he's paid to do. I wonder how many runs he's driven in when he doesn't walk or HR?

Adam Dunn's a very good player, but he's not even an All Star at this time and the fact is most decent teams have a player as good as Adam Dunn. The Cubs have Derrick Lee. The Cards have Puhols. The Astros have Morgan Ensberg. The Braves have Andrew Jones. Production like Dunn's is not that rare. It's found on a lot of teams.

He is only 25 years old and that's worth noting. But he's not a great player yet although some are ready to put him in the Reds Hall of Fame any day now.

RosieRed
07-23-2005, 02:27 PM
But what I want from a guy 6'6" and 275 lbs is run production. Walks rarely drive in runs and that is what he's paid to do. I wonder how many runs he's driven in when he doesn't walk or HR?

What kind of run production are you referring to?

Because Dunn leads the Reds in runs scored (69) and is second on the team in RBI (59; Griffey leads with 65). Dunn also leads the Reds in runs created (72.7) and RC/27 (8.01). I'd say that all adds up to pretty good run production.

Is it the number of RBI from Dunn that bothers you? He's on pace to end the season with right around 100 RBI. Should that number be higher, in your opinion?

I think what bothers people about Dunn's game is that his productivity just isn't as obvious as some other players'. It's easy to look at BA and RBI and assume Dunn isn't producing as much as he should. With Dunn, you have to look beyond those two numbers, because there are too many other factors at work in his game. (In my opinion, anyway.)

I agree with everyone that Dunn has room for improvement. I think we'll see that improvement before long, considering his age; but I also think his game is pretty impressive as is right now.

SteelSD
07-23-2005, 02:48 PM
I don't think batting average is a great stat. It is one of many. Adam Dunn himself will tell you he should not be hitting .240. His walks are admirable and yes that is partly the result of where management has put him in the order. But what I want from a guy 6'6" and 275 lbs is run production. Walks rarely drive in runs and that is what he's paid to do. I wonder how many runs he's driven in when he doesn't walk or HR?

Are Home Runs suddenly not hits? In one breath, you say that he's paid to drive in Runs and in another you denigrate him for utilizing a primary method of driving in Runs.

Does it count that a runner doesn't need to be at 2nd or 3rd to be in scoring position when Dunn walks to the plate? Does it count that Dunn himself is in scoring position when he walks to the plate? Absolutely it does.

Last night in the 5th Inning Dunn stepped to the plate with Griffey on 2nd Base. Dunn walked after a seven-pitch PA. None of the seven pitches were in the strike zone. He swung at three of the seven pitches and fouled them off. Was Dunn supposed to swing at the seventh Ball of the PA as well? If so, you think he was more likely to get a hit or more likely to make an Out?

That's the thing Ted Williams understood. The pitcher is not beating the hitter by walking him. The hitter is beating the pitcher because the hitter is not doing what the pitcher wants him to do.


Adam Dunn's a very good player, but he's not even an All Star at this time and the fact is most decent teams have a player as good as Adam Dunn. The Cubs have Derrick Lee. The Cards have Puhols. The Astros have Morgan Ensberg. The Braves have Andrew Jones. Production like Dunn's is not that rare. It's found on a lot of teams.

"Not even an All Star". What does that even mean? Players routinely receive awards and AS game selections they don't deserve.

And no, Andruw Jones doesn't even belong in a conversation about the best offensive players in the game. The Braves don't have anyone remotely as productive as Dunn. Lee and Ensberg are having career years. That's great. Pujols is Pujols. Again, super.

Seriously, does a hitter like Dunn need to be one of the top 2 or 3 hitters in MLB to be a tremendous player or will the top 15 suffice? 'Cause I'll tell you, his Batting Average and RBI totals does NOT preclude him from being one of the top 15 (top dozen actually) most productive hitters in the game.


He is only 25 years old and that's worth noting. But he's not a great player yet although some are ready to put him in the Reds Hall of Fame any day now.

He's a great player. He's a tremendous player. You don't need a full two hands to count the number of NL players who have been more productive than Adam Dunn this season. Soon, you won't need all five fingers on one hand.

That's should be good enough for anyone. But, alas, he doesn't hit .300 so it'll never be good enough for some.

Sea Ray
07-23-2005, 04:16 PM
"Not even an All Star". What does that even mean? Players routinely receive awards and AS game selections they don't deserve.

Do you think he got shafted because he was not chosen to be an All Star this year? I'm not saying a starter. I'm saying was he even worthy of going to Detroit this summer? The fact is he wasn't even seriously considered. In fact Griffey would have gone before Dunn. The guy's not a saint. He does have scars.

Do you think the Braves would trade us Andrew Jones for Adam Dunn one for one?

I'm not going to fill more pages on this site going round and round about Adam Dunn. It's been hashed and re-hashed. It never ceases to amaze me the feathers that get ruffled on this site should anyone in any way criticize this guy. But I am aware that that's the way it is and I am aware that folks are dug in so deep on this one it makes no sense to delve into it again.

In conclusion, IMO Adam Dunn is a very good player with holes in his game that he may or may not fill with time. I am glad he is a Cincinnati Red. I do not think his game is All Star worthy at this time. I do not think he deserved one of the precious spots on this year's All Star roster. IMO Atlanta Braves fans would laugh at a proposed Dunn for Jones trade.

SteelSD
07-23-2005, 04:40 PM
Do you think he got shafted because he was not chosen to be an All Star this year? I'm not saying a starter. I'm saying was he even worthy of going to Detroit this summer? The fact is he wasn't even seriously considered. In fact Griffey would have gone before Dunn. The guy's not a saint. He does have scars.

I don't rate players based on All-Star game appearances. I rate them on performance. Real tangible performance.


Do you think the Braves would trade us Andrew Jones for Adam Dunn one for one?

They'd be stupid not to.


I'm not going to fill more pages on this site going round and round about Adam Dunn. It's been hashed and re-hashed. It never ceases to amaze me the feathers that get ruffled on this site should anyone in any way criticize this guy. But I am aware that that's the way it is and I am aware that folks are dug in so deep on this one it makes no sense to delve into it again.

Try criticizing Sean Casey by saying that he doesn't play hard. See what happens. You'd get the same negative response because you'd be criticizing him for the wrong thing- just like criticizing Dunn for missing out on AS game selections and production is the wrong thing.


In conclusion, IMO Adam Dunn is a very good player with holes in his game that he may or may not fill with time. I am glad he is a Cincinnati Red. I do not think his game is All Star worthy at this time. I do not think he deserved one of the precious spots on this year's All Star roster. IMO Atlanta Braves fans would laugh at a proposed Dunn for Jones trade.

Precious spots? You mean those spots that are so precious that MLB makes sure at least one player from each team gets one regardless of performance?

You and I both know that not all the best players make All-Star teams. It's set up that way.

Betterread
07-23-2005, 04:57 PM
I'm not going to fill more pages on this site going round and round about Adam Dunn. It's been hashed and re-hashed. It never ceases to amaze me the feathers that get ruffled on this site should anyone in any way criticize this guy. But I am aware that that's the way it is and I am aware that folks are dug in so deep on this one it makes no sense to delve into it again.

In conclusion, IMO Adam Dunn is a very good player with holes in his game that he may or may not fill with time. I am glad he is a Cincinnati Red. I do not think his game is All Star worthy at this time. I do not think he deserved one of the precious spots on this year's All Star roster.

Good points. I would add that it is too bad that one cannot objectively discuss on this board when Dunn has a bad game or a bad at-bat or what-have-you. It strikes me that the people who feel that Dunn is their favorite player want to dictate to others how they should enjoy his game. I think he is a fantastic athlete who is still learning the major league game but has great potential. I have stated that I think it would be a bad idea for the reds to trade him, period.
However, I think he has a lot of room for improvement. Not improvement just to be an average player, but improvement to get him to the "star" level that many people here feel he has reached. So I don't think he's a Star, that doesn't mean that I think he's worthless.

RosieRed
07-23-2005, 05:28 PM
Good points. I would add that it is too bad that one cannot objectively discuss on this board when Dunn has a bad game or a bad at-bat or what-have-you. It strikes me that the people who feel that Dunn is their favorite player want to dictate to others how they should enjoy his game. I think he is a fantastic athlete who is still learning the major league game but has great potential. I have stated that I think it would be a bad idea for the reds to trade him, period.
However, I think he has a lot of room for improvement. Not improvement just to be an average player, but improvement to get him to the "star" level that many people here feel he has reached. So I don't think he's a Star, that doesn't mean that I think he's worthless.

One can objectively discuss Dunn on this board, especially when he has a bad game or a bad at-bat. Read through some game threads; people consistently comment on Dunn swinging at bad pitches, botching OF plays, etc. We ALL know Dunn has holes in his game and that there are areas in which he can improve. No one denies that.

Where it gets messy is when people claim he's just not that good of a player. (Not meaning you, just in general.) When people presume Dunn's flaws outweigh his assets. Because he IS that good, and there's really no denying that either.

If I may steal these numbers from Ravenlord:


Dunn among Major League left fielders (out of 21):
OBP 390 (4th)
SLG 559 (6th)
OPS 949 (3rd)
BB 55 (1st)
P/PA 4.20 (2nd)
RC 57.6 (4th)
RC/27 7.89 (4th)
IsoP 313 (1st)
IsoD 144 (1st)
IOS 457 (1st)
secA 531 (1st)


Dunn among Major League outfielders (out of 68):
OBP 11th
SLG 9th
OPS 7th
BB 3rd
P/PA 6th
RC 6th
RC/27 8th
IsoP 2nd
secA 1st

Dunn among all the Major Leagues (out of 168)
OBP t-22nd
SLG 17th
OPS 15th
BB t-3rd
P/PA t-8th
RC 15th
RC/27 t-14th
IsoP 3rd
secA 1st

He is already one of the top offensive players in the game. Yet is seems as if some people are waiting for these dramatic and drastic offensive improvements out of Dunn. If he improves as much as people think he should, he would be THE best offensive player out there. And while that would be great, of course, it's not exactly necessary.

kyred14
07-23-2005, 05:37 PM
Do you think the Braves would trade us Andrew Jones for Adam Dunn one for one?

yep, they wouldn't think twice, either

forfreelin04
07-23-2005, 06:26 PM
Bad question to ask Sea Ray!! Some of these guys would trade their Mama's ashes for Dunn.

However if I was running the helm in Atlanta I would trade Terry Pendleton's old jock, some string cheese, and every stich of John Rocker memorabilia I could find for Adam Dunn. :KoolAid:

Oh yeah and some rep points :):):):):)!

Sea Ray
07-24-2005, 01:34 PM
Good points. I would add that it is too bad that one cannot objectively discuss on this board when Dunn has a bad game or a bad at-bat or what-have-you. It strikes me that the people who feel that Dunn is their favorite player want to dictate to others how they should enjoy his game. I think he is a fantastic athlete who is still learning the major league game but has great potential. I have stated that I think it would be a bad idea for the reds to trade him, period.
However, I think he has a lot of room for improvement. Not improvement just to be an average player, but improvement to get him to the "star" level that many people here feel he has reached. So I don't think he's a Star, that doesn't mean that I think he's worthless.

I think that's the way level headed Reds fans feel about him. In fact Adam Dunn himself makes comments from time to time that he recognizes his shortcomings.

There are 3 kinds of Reds fans out there the way I see it. There's the raw, raw type who worships Reds players because of the uniform they wear and this type of fan overrates these players and doesn't see why Andrew Jones made the All Star team and Adam Dunn didn't. You can tell these fans because they never see faults in their favorite Reds players.

And there's the whiney type that most of us despise who are always complaining, goes into major depression after every loss and moan "why can't we be like the St Louis Cardinals."

Then there's the level headed Reds fan who can see the forest from the trees. This fan can criticize even the best Reds player when criticism is due. This type of fan could tell 15 years ago that Pete must have bet on baseball while the raw-raw fan was still blaming it on a Bart Giamatti conspiracy.

I consider myself in the latter category and I'll continue to call a spade a spade regardless.

Sea Ray
07-24-2005, 01:39 PM
yep, they wouldn't think twice, either

You really believe that don't you?

Honestly folks. Not everyone out there believes Dunn is a God. If so we wouldn't be hearing all these other teams blaming OB for his high asking price where Dunn is concerned. So far no other team has bit on giving up the farm for Dunn. That should tell you something about his value. I wouldn't give Dunn up in anything less than a boatload in return either but I'm telling you most folks outside of this board would strongly disagree with trading Andrew Jones for Adam Dunn.

Sea Ray
07-24-2005, 01:44 PM
Where it gets messy is when people claim he's just not that good of a player. (Not meaning you, just in general.) When people presume Dunn's flaws outweigh his assets. Because he IS that good, and there's really no denying that either.

I have rarely ever read a post where a Reds fan thinks that Dunn is not a good player. It's only the defensive nature of the numerous Dunn apologists who surface that label it as such.

MWM
07-24-2005, 01:51 PM
Who are these people you speak of who won't accep Dunn's shortcomings as a player, because I haven't really seen any here on RedsZone.

westofyou
07-24-2005, 01:58 PM
You really believe that don't you?

Adruw Jones is owed 26 million bucks for the next 2 years and is having a career year.

The Braves would gladly pay Dunn 15 - 18 million for those two years and find another CF.

Slyder
07-24-2005, 02:26 PM
No, but when he does have those opportunities, he needs to take them -- because the guys hitting behind him are a heck of a lot less likely to drive HIM in should he walk.

But when you have .267 Rich Aurilia types hitting behind ihm, who do you think managers are going to say "I'll take my chances with him". Now its getting better if Kearns can show hes back or Pena gets hot. Give him protection and you will see some better results, but as long as the Reds hit him so low he will struggle as teams pitch around him to get to "the next guy".

traderumor
07-24-2005, 02:34 PM
I think that's the way level headed Reds fans feel about him.
I consider myself in the latter category and I'll continue to call a spade a spade regardless.I have seen nothing in your posts to agree with your self assessment. It is not level headedness to be on a mission to take folks to task that appreciate a player's contributions to their favorite team and recognize his presence among the top of every major category of the league's leaderboard except batting average and use those facts to support their assessment. You basically seem upset because folks are impressed by Dunn more than you think they should be.

M2
07-24-2005, 04:36 PM
The reason he has as many RBIs as he does is because of his tremendous power which is not in dispute. He ought to have twice his HR number in RBIs just from the HRs alone. His RBI hitting when he's not hitting the ball over the fence is still quite shaky.

So Adam Dunn should be leading the league in RBIs from the lower portion of the lineup?

If I had a player that amazing, I'd have him hitting up higher where he could do even more damage.

I'll make this simple, because you're already on the right track (all you need to do is follow it to the finish here). BA doesn't get you RBIs. If you want RBIs, the rate stat you ought to care about is SLG. That's how RBIs happen, lots and lots of total bases. That HR boost your SLG is one of the primary reasons HR hitters drive in so many runs while singles hitter don't.

Dunn's got a .581 SLG, .597 with runners on, .514 w/RISP, .594 w/RISP and 2 outs, .622 close and late. That's the kind of guy who'll drive in runs ... if you put him in the position to do it. Of course, Dunn's also a run-scoring machine (4th in the NL from the bottom of the order), which is why at the #2 or #3 slots he'd be a monster.

Chip R
07-24-2005, 08:42 PM
I don't think batting average is a great stat. It is one of many. Adam Dunn himself will tell you he should not be hitting .240. His walks are admirable and yes that is partly the result of where management has put him in the order. But what I want from a guy 6'6" and 275 lbs is run production. Walks rarely drive in runs and that is what he's paid to do. I wonder how many runs he's driven in when he doesn't walk or HR?Others have debunked your opinion that he is not a run producer. The trap you fall into is the same one a lot of fans and baseball people fall into: They stereotype players. JimBo used to do it all the time. He thought - and apparantly still thinks - that if a guy is fast he should be a leadoff hitter because if he gets on base he can steal bases. Only problem with that is that a lot of these guys don't get on base. They can't hit, they have problems fielding and all they can do is run. DanO seems to be fixated on pitchers with decent Win-Loss totals and guys who have been on winning teams in the past. They are "proven winners" and since they were proven winners in their past years that must mean they will be proven winners here. You see a guy like Dunn who is a huge guy and think he should be hitting higher in the order - which he should - and driving in more runs. But Dunn isn't like these other fellows. He's different and if a team is smart they can use those differences to their - and his - advantage. Use his ability to draw walks to an advantage. If he walks with a runner on base and the guys behind him don't drive any runners home, it's not Dunn's fault, it is their fault. Put guys behind him who can do that.

M2
07-24-2005, 09:11 PM
Chip, brilliant point about stereotyping.

KittyDuran
07-24-2005, 11:05 PM
If he walks with a runner on base and the guys behind him don't drive any runners home, it's not Dunn's fault, it is their fault. Put guys behind him who can do that. Ding, ding, ding - we have a winner!!! That's it in a nutshell... Dunn can be anywhere in the lineup - but if he gets on base, what are the odds of coming in to score? It pads his stats, but doesn't help the team if no one is driving him in :(

Raisor
07-24-2005, 11:15 PM
Dunn has scored approaching 50% of the time he's not made an out.

I don't really know if that's good or not, but I suspect it is.

Joseph
07-24-2005, 11:23 PM
I consider myself in the latter category and I'll continue to call a spade a spade regardless.

I challenge you to find more than a handful of people on here who DON'T believe they are the 'tell-it-like-it-is' brand of poster who are capable of looking at the team objectively.

Johnny Footstool
07-25-2005, 02:28 AM
I have rarely ever read a post where a Reds fan thinks that Dunn is not a good player. It's only the defensive nature of the numerous Dunn apologists who surface that label it as such.

We've been enduring small-minded criticism of Dunn for years. We've heard ignorant comments like "he strikes out too much" and "he's not getting paid to walk" literally hundreds of times. So you'll have to excuse some of us for being defensive. We're just sick of having the same argument over and over again.

M2
07-25-2005, 02:52 AM
I challenge you to find more than a handful of people on here who DON'T believe they are the 'tell-it-like-it-is' brand of poster who are capable of looking at the team objectively.

In my experience, anyone who insists he/she is "telling it like it is" isn't. Either that person's trying to hoodwink you or, more likely, can't figure out what it is for the telling.