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OnBaseMachine
09-18-2005, 02:27 PM
Hopefully it stays away from the New Orleans or Biloxi area...


Hurricane watch issued for Florida Keys
Tropical Depression 18 grows in Atlantic

Sunday, September 18, 2005; Posted: 1:11 p.m. EDT (17:11 GMT)

(CNN) -- A hurricane watch has been issued for the Florida Keys as a tropical depression strengthened in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday.

Tropical Depression 18 formed late Saturday near the Bahamas, and the National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm will intensify as it moves west toward the Keys, Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane watch extends from Ocean Reef southward and westward to Dry Tortugas, which means hurricane conditions and sustained winds of 74 mph or more are possible within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch also is in effect for the northwest Bahamas.

The storm had top sustained winds of 35 mph, but forecasters predicted it would gain intensity and become Tropical Storm Rita by Monday morning and reach hurricane status by Tuesday morning.

At 11 a.m. ET Sunday, the storm was about 390 miles east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas, and was moving west at near 12 mph, according to the hurricane center.

The storm should move over the eastern and central Bahamas later today. The hurricane center's advisory said up to 8 inches of rain might fall in the Bahamas.

Forecasters said the storm's projected path would take it through the Straits of Florida between South Florida from Cuba. By Wednesday morning, the storm could become a hurricane and move into the Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical storm warning was issued Saturday night for the Turks and Caicos and southeast and central Bahamas, meaning tropical storm conditions and sustained winds of 39-73 mph are expected within 24 hours.

To the east of TD 18, Tropical Storm Philippe became the 16th named storm of the busy 2005 season Saturday night.

As of 11 a.m. ET Sunday, Philippe's top sustained winds had reached 50 mph, and the storm was expected to reach hurricane strength during the next 24 hours. Its center was about 425 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands, and it was moving north-northwest at about 7 mph.

Philippe's three-day forecast showed the storm heading to the northwest, into the Atlantic. However, forecasters warned people in the central and northern Lesser Antilles to keep an eye on the storm.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/18/tropical.weather/

oneupper
09-18-2005, 05:04 PM
TD 18 is now Tropical Storm Rita.

Track has it going towards Mexico/Texas.

OnBaseMachine
09-18-2005, 05:19 PM
Long-term forecasts show the system heading generally toward the west in the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas or Mexico later in the week, but such forecasts are subject to large errors. That means that areas ravaged by Hurricane Katrina could potentially be in the storm's path.

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20050918114309990001&ncid=NWS00010000000001

Plus another storm may develop...


A Large And Complex Area Of Disturbed Weather Is Located About Midway Between Africa And The Lesser Antilles. This System Remains Poorly Organized But Has Some Potential For Development During The Next Couple Of Days As It Moves Westward To West-Northwestward.

http://www.weatherhub.com/Hurricane/

jmcclain19
09-18-2005, 05:35 PM
Could easily turn into NO or Mississippi.

God help them

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5+gif/025617W_sm.gif

Unassisted
09-18-2005, 07:25 PM
It's been unseasonably warm in the gulf region for weeks and that's a large area of warm water for this one to strengthen in.

South Texas could definitely use the rain, but I won't wish those hurricane-force winds or the storm surge on the coastal dwellers.

The thousands of evacuees who are here will undoubtedly be worried if it heads toward Texas. I don't think there's much to worry about this far inland, though.

SandyD
09-18-2005, 09:09 PM
I keep thinking the boss is going to send us home soon. This will probably keep us here a bit longer.

OnBaseMachine
09-19-2005, 12:20 PM
Max Mayfield was on Fox News talking about this storm last night. He says it will most likely develop into atleast a Cat 3 or 4, and New Orleans could still be hit, depending on the steering winds. :(

It does indeed look like the storm moved north a bit. Yesterday's projection had it hitting south Texas or Mexico, now it's closer to central Texas. But it's still too early to know the exact location for landfall.


Bush said there is "deep concern" about the possibility that Tropical Storm Rita, which was headed toward the Florida Keys, could head into the Gulf of Mexico and drop more rain on New Orleans. If that happened, he said he has been warned that the city's levees could not hold and would be breached again.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/19/AR2005091900543.html


While the hurricane center's current central forecast is for Rita to head for the Texan coast, the storm may hit anywhere from northeast Mexico to Louisiana, according to the probability cone. Storm tracks can change, however: When Katrina moved into the Gulf after crossing Florida, the storm was expected to track northward and make landfall again in the state's Panhandle.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=atvEGXCgil00&refer=us

RBA
09-19-2005, 12:28 PM
No, no such thing as Global Warming.

OnBaseMachine
09-19-2005, 01:02 PM
Storm continuing to move more northerly than originally predicted; New Orleans now in the cone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5+gif/212122W_sm.gif

RANDY IN INDY
09-19-2005, 01:23 PM
No, no such thing as Global Warming.

I smell a thread closer. ;)

OnBaseMachine
09-19-2005, 01:26 PM
The yellow projection has it hitting NO nearly head on.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL182005mlts.gif

LoganBuck
09-19-2005, 01:37 PM
Hitting Galveston would be worse than hitting NO again IMO. Galveston has become our defacto major southern port city because of Katrina. A blow there could really cripple the US economy.

Unassisted
09-19-2005, 04:59 PM
Galveston is already making plans for evacuation for the expected Friday landfall. If voluntary evacuation is announced tomorrow, there will be 80 buses available to relocate people without transportation inland. FWIW, Galveston's population is about 50,000.

GoReds
09-19-2005, 05:22 PM
What makes it worse is that even if it doesn't hit NO, they have it on track to head towards Houston - where a good number of evacuees are located.

Someone has some SERIOUS bad karma.

Reds/Flyers Fan
09-19-2005, 06:27 PM
The yellow projection has it hitting NO nearly head on.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL182005mlts.gif

That yellow line would be nothing short of armageddon for New Orleans. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

When was the last time we got into the "R's" for named hurricanes? How low in the alphabet have we gotten and what, God forbid, happens if we pass "Z"?

OnBaseMachine
09-19-2005, 06:51 PM
That yellow line would be nothing short of armageddon for New Orleans. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

When was the last time we got into the "R's" for named hurricanes? How low in the alphabet have we gotten and what, God forbid, happens if we pass "Z"?

They start using the Greek alphabet. Seriously.

Unassisted
09-19-2005, 07:25 PM
That yellow line would be nothing short of armageddon for New Orleans. Let's hope that doesn't happen.THe yellow line scenario only happens if the bubble of high pressure over Louisiana this week collapses. The National Hurricane Center track map seems to indicate they believe that it will hold up. FWIW, their predictions have been almost uncannily good lately.

ghettochild
09-19-2005, 08:10 PM
GOOOO ORANGE!!!! DARK BLUE FOR THE WIN!!

ok seriously we need rain here in DFW BADDD

kyred14
09-19-2005, 09:02 PM
This one will almost undoubtibly be a cat. 4 or 5 no matter where it hits. The water temps in the gulf are in the 85-90 range.

OnBaseMachine
09-19-2005, 09:48 PM
THe yellow line scenario only happens if the bubble of high pressure over Louisiana this week collapses. The National Hurricane Center track map seems to indicate they believe that it will hold up. FWIW, their predictions have been almost uncannily good lately.

I thought Max Mayfield said last night that the high pressure may erode by Thursday. It may have been someone else, I'll double check.

Edit...found it.


National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said Monday that people in some areas still recovering from Hurricane Katrina should be watching Rita. "This is definitely becoming a concern for the northwestern Gulf of Mexico," Mayfield said. He said the storm could threaten Texas and Louisiana within five days. "What will determine the steering there is this high pressure system that currently is anchored over Louisiana and Texas -- but with time that's forecast to erode and move to the east and that may let Rita turn up more towards the north. So at this point in time the folks in Texas and even the Louisiana coast need to monitor this very carefully."

http://www.indiadaily.com/breaking_news/45553.asp

OnBaseMachine
09-19-2005, 10:10 PM
A meteorologist was just on Larry King Live, and he says worst case scenario would be this storm hitting central or western Louisiana... because rain and the storm surge would still effect New Orleans. He went on to note that even if the storm hits western Texas, it will still effect New Orleans to a certain degree.

:(


Mayor Nagin, cited one projection showing Rita becoming a Category 3 hurricane, and striking near New Orleans by the end of the week.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7000198426


If Rita makes landfall anywhere near New Orleans and its damaged levee system, it could send water cascading into a city just starting to dry out after Katrina.

Nagin said a three-foot storm surge, which can be kicked up by even a moderate tropical storm, would leave as much as four feet of water in New Orleans. Rita was expected to rake the Keys with an eight-foot storm surge; authorities said that even if Rita's eye strikes in Texas, it could still send a three-foot surge to New Orleans.

RFS62
09-20-2005, 01:01 AM
There's only one way out of Galveston. It's an island, and the scene of the largest loss of life in US history from a Hurricane. The great hurricane of 1900 drowned everyone on the island.

Several times in the past, hurricanes have headed that way, and officials were able to convince most of the residents to evacuate. They were always false alarms, and fewer and fewer people heeded the warnings in a classic "cry wolf" scenario.

The Houston area is far more populated than ground zero for Katrina.

Galveston is the second most talked about nightmare scenario hurricane in the disaster relief community, right behind New Orleans.

RFS62
09-20-2005, 09:36 AM
For those of you who questioned the compliance to the mandatory evacuation order in New Orleans as Katrina was heading that way, the mayor of Key West just reported 50% of the residents of that town have now evacuated as Rita is headed that way.

He noted that he was happy with this response, as normally he only gets about a 20% compliance with his mandatory evacuation orders.

Even after seeing what Katrina can do, the residents of Key West won't evacuate. The highest point on Key West is about 16 feet above sea level.

Now, Rita isn't anything close to the strength of Katrina as yet, but it is a well known fact in the disaster relief community that you will NEVER get full compliance to an evacuation order. Never.

Blimpie
09-20-2005, 09:52 AM
No, no such thing as Global Warming.Yes, quite peculiar that...what with these hurricanes actually forming during a historically defined period of time known as "hurricane season."

Unassisted
09-20-2005, 09:54 AM
If you look back at Reds/Flyers Fan's post now, you'll see that the yellow track has New Orleans out of harm's way. Good news for that part of the Gulf Coast.

I've been to Galveston. It feels like a long thin island, no more than a couple of miles wide at some points. Nice place to visit, but there's no way I'd want to ride out a hurricane in a place like that. I hope that most people there feel the same way.

Although I've never been to the Keys, I can't imagine the mindset of those people staying behind that RFS described. That place looks more vulnerable than Galveston on the map. Plus if the causeway gets wiped out, they'd have to depend on boats for rescue.

BTW, San Antonio is accepting evacuees from the Texas Gulf Coast. There is a possibility that some of them may end up in shelters here with the Katrina evacuees.

OnBaseMachine
09-20-2005, 02:21 PM
FX News says Rita is now Cat 2. This thing is strengthening quickly, and it hasn't even reach the Gulf yet.

Winds 100 sustained.

Blimpie
09-20-2005, 02:45 PM
FX News says Rita is now Cat 2. This thing is strengthening quickly, and it hasn't even reach the Gulf yet.

Winds 100 sustained.Yikes, that's awful quick escalation considering that it has just crossed the Keys. Once it heats up in the Gulf it might zoom right past Category 3 status. OBM, is it still looking like Galveston?

flyer85
09-20-2005, 03:01 PM
This is a stronger hurricane than Katrina as it moves into the gulf. Katrina was barely a Cat 1 after passing over the southern tip of Florida.

OnBaseMachine
09-20-2005, 03:05 PM
Yikes, that's awful quick escalation considering that it has just crossed the Keys. Once it heats up in the Gulf it might zoom right past Category 3 status. OBM, is it still looking like Galveston?

Looks like it, but it's stil way to early to know the exact location of eventual landfall. The experts say New Orleans may get a lot of rain and storm surge since they will be on the eastern side of the eye.

Blimpie
09-20-2005, 03:10 PM
Looks like it, but it's stil way to early to know the exact location of eventual landfall. The experts say New Orleans may get a lot of rain and storm surge since they will be on the eastern side of the eye.Sadly, the rain may be just as damaging as a minor storm surge. The levees are being held together with chewing gum and electrical tape as it is...and the pumps already proved that they cannot be relied upon. :(

Blimpie
09-20-2005, 03:13 PM
Here's the updated track as of about ten minutes ago. Doesn't leave much margin for error where NO is concerned...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5+gif/151209W_sm.gif

Reds Fanatic
09-20-2005, 03:26 PM
Sadly, the rain may be just as damaging as a minor storm surge. The levees are being held together with chewing gum and electrical tape as it is...and the pumps already proved that they cannot be relied upon. :( The Army Corp of Engineers have said even a 3 foot storm surge would probably break the temporary levies that are up now.

Blimpie
09-20-2005, 03:38 PM
The Army Corp of Engineers have said even a 3 foot storm surge would probably break the temporary levies that are up now.Key West reported a six foot storm surge this morning...that's when she was still a Category 1 hurricane. May God bless what is left of the city of New Orleans.

OnBaseMachine
09-20-2005, 03:55 PM
There appeared to be little effort to enforce Mayor Ray Nagin's new evacuation order Tuesday morning, and some National Guard units were withdrawing from the city. The troops have been living tents in the city's Algiers section near a levee that officials fear could break.


Maj. Arnold Strong of the Louisiana National Guard said three inches of rain from Rita could cause a levee break that could flood New Orleans again. He said the Guard is pulling back to the town of Alexandria "so we can go to wherever we need to go" later.

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-uskat0921,0,702754.story?coll=ny-top-headlines

Unassisted
09-20-2005, 05:45 PM
Port Lavaca is the city at the center of the current landfall path. It's about midway between Corpus Christi and Houston.

RFS62
09-20-2005, 09:11 PM
Large contingent of Texas National Guard redeployed back home tonight, and FEMA and all agencies involved are focusing on Texas now.

OnBaseMachine
09-20-2005, 10:04 PM
Winds now up to 105 sustained; expected to be a CAT 4 tomorrow.

The storm has slowed down to 12 mph. I read elsewhere that if the storm continued to move fast it would probably hit central Texas, if it slows down it could turn quicker and hit the LA/TX border.

RFS62
09-20-2005, 10:18 PM
Winds now up to 105 sustained; expected to be a CAT 4 tomorrow.

The storm has slowed down to 12 mph. I read elsewhere that if the storm continued to move fast it would probably hit central Texas, if it slows down it could turn quicker and hit the LA/TX border.


Yep. Worst case scenario would be if it slowed down it's forward movement and allowed a high pressure system to pass through from west to east in front of it. That system is all that's keeping it from turning north right now, and once it passes through the area, it will start it's right turn northward. That would allow it to hit anywhere in the gulf, and quite possibly Louisiana again.

Reds Fanatic
09-21-2005, 12:01 AM
Winds now up to 110 MPH. Center has moved slightly to the east from the previous update. Currently the center would hit somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

OnBaseMachine
09-21-2005, 12:01 AM
Winds now up to 110 sustained; one less mph than Cat 3.

Strom has shifted a bit to the east. Not good news for southeastern Louisiana, so says the meteorologist on Fox.


THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.

Reds Fanatic
09-21-2005, 08:24 AM
Here is where all the different computer models have this headed right now:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL182005mlts.gif

Reds Fanatic
09-21-2005, 08:39 AM
This has just become a category 4 hurricane with winds of 135 MPH.

OnBaseMachine
09-21-2005, 11:51 AM
Winds up to 140. Pressure MB dropped 4 more points to 944. This thing is a monster.

It again slowed down from 14 mph to 12.

Heath
09-21-2005, 11:57 AM
Can't we just call time-out from all this.........

Prayers to all involved

OnBaseMachine
09-21-2005, 01:18 PM
At 11:00 A.M. the pressure MB was 944. TWC just said as of 12:15 P.M., the MB now sits at 934, so it dropped by ten in just 75 minutes. That is an enormous dropoff.

GoReds
09-21-2005, 02:05 PM
The 11am discussion is even more disturbing:


INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS.

For those of us (like me) not up on the knots->MPH conversion, 120 knots is equivalent to 138MPH. 140 knots is 161MPH.

Geez.

Unassisted
09-21-2005, 02:38 PM
I just read that the Child Protective Services office in Matagorda County, the county at the center of the projected landfall area, has stated that it will be removing children from the homes of families who don't evacuate.

http://www.beloblog.com/KHOU_Weather_Watch/

Normally, CPS is the state agency that removes kids from abusive homes.

OnBaseMachine
09-21-2005, 03:02 PM
MSNBC just gave an update. Winds were estimated at 165 in the NE quadrant of the storm, and the pressure MB is down to 923. Wow.

RBA
09-21-2005, 03:15 PM
Zczc Miatcuat3 All
Ttaa00 Knhc Ddhhmm
Hurricane Rita Tropical Cyclone Update
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
215 Pm Edt Wed Sep 21 2005

Data From Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate That Rita Has Intensified
A Little More And Winds Have Reached 150 Mph Winds With A Minimum
Pressure Of 920 Mb. This Makes Rita A Strong Category Four
Hurricane.

Forecaster Avila

$$
Nnnn

kyred14
09-21-2005, 03:19 PM
This has a real shot of being more powerful than Katrina. :scared:

Unassisted
09-21-2005, 03:25 PM
This has a real shot of being more powerful than Katrina. :scared:OTOH, the current center of the landfall area is one of the least-developed areas on the Texas gulf coast. There are people living there, but the population density is nowhere near what it was in the Katrina landfall area. A shift in either direction, and especially a northward shift, takes away that advantage.

RBA
09-21-2005, 03:33 PM
Hurricane Rita landfall prediction shifts south

MIAMI (CNN) -- With Hurricane Rita spinning in the Gulf of Mexico as a dangerous Category 4 storm Wednesday, forecasters issued a revised prediction for landfall.

The latest prediction has landfall occurring somewhere between Galveston and Corpus Christie, Texas, sometime early Saturday. The previous prediction had centered on Galveston. The "cone of probability" still covers the entire Texas coast.
Rita, the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season, has top sustained winds near 140 mph with higher gusts. At 11 a.m., the National Hurricane Center reported Rita's center was 260 miles of Key West, Fla. and 755 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. It was moving toward the west at 13 mph, a motion that was expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Hurricane-strength winds extended outward up to 45 miles from Rita's center, with tropical storm force winds extending outward to 140 miles, the center said. The hurricane center expects Rita to gather strength and then weakening slightly before the eye makes landfall with winds around 145 mph. (Posted 12:30 p.m.)

TeamMorris
09-21-2005, 04:00 PM
I just read that the Child Protective Services office in Matagorda County, the county at the center of the projected landfall area, has stated that it will be removing children from the homes of families who don't evacuate.

http://www.beloblog.com/KHOU_Weather_Watch/

Normally, CPS is the state agency that removes kids from abusive homes.

Good!

Jeremy Piergallini
09-21-2005, 04:18 PM
Update from weather.com
Hurricane Rita continues to grow stronger over the Gulf of Mexico. Top winds are estimated to be 150 mph, a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

5 MPH away from a Cat 5. From all accounts and purposes, this doesn't seem to be slowing, but actually getting stronger. I hope it slips off before it hits.
Is it Armageddon?

GoReds
09-21-2005, 04:32 PM
Check out this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

The hurricane looks to be taking on annular characteristics. Annular hurricanes look like a big donut or tire wheel - it has uniform convection around the center. These hurricanes tend to hold their intensity longer and do not flucuate much in strength.

Not good news.

Reds Fanatic
09-21-2005, 04:48 PM
Here is a current picture. This is a monster storm.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/EI/isese.jpg

LoganBuck
09-21-2005, 05:12 PM
According to CNN Rita has just been upgraded to CAT 5.

Start Praying.

Reds Fanatic
09-21-2005, 05:14 PM
Winds are now up to 165 MPH. It is amazing how much this has strengthened just today.

Reds4Life
09-21-2005, 05:20 PM
Winds are now up to 165 MPH. It is amazing how much this has strengthened just today.

And the worst part is it's still got a ton of warm ocean in front of it before it gets close to land, this thing could be above 200mph by the time it makes landfall.

:(

ghettochild
09-21-2005, 05:24 PM
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BLUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

we seriously need rain

Unassisted
09-21-2005, 05:36 PM
Winds are now up to 165 MPH. It is amazing how much this has strengthened just today.That's because it's hot down here in the southern latitudes! We're expecting a high of 98 today and 100 tomorrow. The waters of the gulf haven't begun to cool down yet.

KronoRed
09-21-2005, 05:38 PM
According to CNN Rita has just been upgraded to CAT 5.

Start Praying.

Done :eek: :(

OnBaseMachine
09-21-2005, 08:10 PM
Simply unreal.


...RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST
INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888
MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN
1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.


The last discussion on the NHC website said Rita will pass over a "high heat" section of water before it makes landfall decreasing the liklihood of weakening and maybe even making the storm stronger.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

RBA
09-21-2005, 08:55 PM
Rita now lower than 899 mb no link Weather Channel

Matt700wlw
09-21-2005, 08:56 PM
This is terrible.

Good luck and God bless whomever this will effect directly and indirectly

OnBaseMachine
09-21-2005, 08:57 PM
RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Also read elsewhere that Accuweather is reporting 185 MPH sustained winds...edit but CNN still has it at 165.


Tides Are Currently Running Near Normal Along The Mississippi And Louisiana Coasts In The Areas Affected By Katrina. Tides In Those Areas Will Increase Up To 3 To 4 Feet Over The Next 24 Hours With Large Waves On Top And Residents There Could Experience Flooding.

http://www.weatherhub.com/Hurricane/

GoReds
09-21-2005, 10:50 PM
As if it was possible, it looks like Rita is getting STRONGER. Colder cloud tops developing around the eyewall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

SandyD
09-21-2005, 10:59 PM
my sister is evacuating Houston. She was planning to head to Arkansas, but the family there won't let her bring the dogs. So, she wants to go to Kenner with the twins and the dogs, and bring the babies. Not a good idea.

Her husband would still bring his mother to Arkansas.

Truth is ... they should just come up here to DFW and stay with my brother. They could bring the dogs up here, even tho I'm not sure how two aging cocker spaniels will do cooped up with a chihuaua puppy. Or go to Laplace LA and stay with my other brother.

Alfred's niece was placed in temporary housing in Houston, and their making her leave. She's not sure where they're sending her.

ghettochild
09-21-2005, 11:30 PM
DFW looks to be hit head on after it its land

OnBaseMachine
09-21-2005, 11:34 PM
Potential bad news for Lousiana. Weather Channel just released the new information:

Winds now up to 175 mph sustained. Pressure dropped to 897. Bad news is the storm has slowed down from 13 to 8 mph. That is not good at all for New Orleans. The slower it moves the better chance it has of turning and hitting Louisiana.

RBA
09-22-2005, 12:01 AM
000
Wtnt33 Knhc 220241
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 18
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
10 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 21 2005

...category Five Rita Continuing To Strengthen Over The Central
Gulf Of Mexico...

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For The Gulf Of Mexico Coast
From Port Mansfield Texas To Cameron Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning
May Be Required For Portions Of The Hurricane Watch Area Thursday
Morning.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect On Either Side Of The
Hurricane Watch Area... From East Of Cameron To Grand Isle
Louisiana... And From South Of Port Mansfield To Brownsville Texas.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The Northeastern Coast
Of Mexico From Rio San Fernando Northward To The Rio Grande.

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. A Tropical Storm
Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The
Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

Interests In The Northwestern Gulf Of Mexico Should Monitor The
Progress Of Potentially Catastrophic Hurricane Rita.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 10 Pm Cdt...0300z...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 24.6 North... Longitude 87.2 West Or About 570 Miles...
915 Km... East-southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 670 Miles...
1080 Km...east-southeast Of Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita Is Moving Toward The West Near 9 Mph ...15 Km/hr...and This
General Motion At A Slightly Faster Forward Speed Is Expected
During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 175 Mph...280 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Rita Is A Potentially Catastrophic Category Five Hurricane On
The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Likely
During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 185 Miles...295 Km.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 897 Mb...26.49 Inches.
This Means Rita Is The Third Most Intense Hurricane In Terms Of
Pressure In The Atlantic Basin.

Tides Are Currently Running Near Normal Along The Mississippi And
Louisiana Coasts In The Areas Affected By Katrina. Tides In Those
Areas Will Increase Up To 3 To 4 Feet And Be Accompanied By Large
Waves Over The Next 24 Hours... And Residents There Could
Experience Some Coastal Flooding.

Heavy Rains Associated With Rita Are Forecast To Begin To Affect The
Western And Central Gulf Of Mexico Coastal Areas Thursday Night
Into Friday. Rita Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall
Accumulations Of 8 To 12 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of
15 Inches Over The Central To Upper Texas Coast. Rainfall Amounts
Of 2 To 24 Inches Will Be Possible Across Southern Louisiana...
Including The New Orleans Metropolitan Area. After Rita Moves
Inland...total Rain Accumulations Of 5 To 10 Inches Will Be
Possible Over Eastern Texas... And Central And Eastern Oklahoma
During Saturday And Sunday.

Repeating The 10 Pm Cdt Position...24.6 N... 87.2 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds...175 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 897 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 1 Am Cdt Followed By The Next
Complete Advisory At 4 Am Cdt.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2005, 12:18 AM
Rainfall Amounts Of 2 To 24 Inches Will Be Possible Across Southern Louisiana... Including The New Orleans Metropolitan Area.

Ya gotta be kidding me. This quote comes from an article on NO: A three-inch rain could overwhelm parts of the city.

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/articles.aspx?aid=5062

What the heck would 10 inches do, let alone 24? I don't even want to imagine. Edit...I think it meant 2-4 inches, not 2-24. No way they get 24 inches of rain.

Meanwhile, another system is on the radar. This season has been unreal.


An Area Of Showers And Thunderstorms Has Persisted Over The Southwestern Caribbean Sea. Surface Pressures Are Low And Upper-Level Winds Are Gradually Becoming More Favorable For Some Slow Development To Occur Over The Next Couple Of Days.

http://www.weatherhub.com/Hurricane/

letsgojunior
09-22-2005, 12:19 AM
897 millibars??!?! Holy crap.

KronoRed
09-22-2005, 12:23 AM
We are going to reach the Greek alphabet for names pretty soon.

Unassisted
09-22-2005, 01:51 AM
We are going to reach the Greek alphabet for names pretty soon.There are only 4 more names before that happens.

TeamBoone
09-22-2005, 02:08 AM
Do countries in other hemispheres have hurricanes? I don't think I've ever heard of it, but of course there are things all over the world I've never heard about.

SandyD
09-22-2005, 02:24 AM
They're called typhoons in the east.

An Atlantic/Gulf hurricane can strike Mexico, Central America or South America too. Hurricane Mitch devastated several islands before slamming into Honduras/Nicaragua/El Salvador. Just one example.

Never mind ... didn't see "hemisphere" and it's late. I think I'll go to bed now.

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2005, 02:30 AM
Do countries in other hemispheres have hurricanes? I don't think I've ever heard of it, but of course there are things all over the world I've never heard about.

Good question. This should answer it for ya.


There are seven main basins of tropical cyclone formation:

Western North Pacific Ocean: Tropical storm activity in this region frequently affects China, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan. This is by far the most active basin, accounting for one third of all tropical cyclone activity in the world. National meteorology organizations, as well as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are responsible for issuing forecasts and warnings in this basin.

Eastern North Pacific Ocean: This is the second most active basin in the world, and is also the most dense (a large number of storms for a small area of ocean). Storms that form in this basin can affect western Mexico, Hawaii, northern Central America, and on extremely rare occasions, California. In the United States, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is responsible for forecasting the western part of this area while the National Hurricane Center is responsible for the eastern part.

South Western Pacific Ocean: Tropical activity in this region largely affects Australia and Oceania, and is forecast by Australia and Papua New Guinea.

Northern Indian Ocean: This basin is actually divided into two areas, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, with the Bay of Bengal dominating (5 to 6 times more activity). Hurricanes which form in this basin have historically cost the most lives — most notably, the 1970 Bhola cyclone killed 200,000. Nations affected by this basin include India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, and Pakistan, and all of these countries issue regional forecasts and warnings. Rarely, a tropical cyclone formed in this basin will affect the Arabian Peninsula.

Southeastern Indian Ocean: Tropical activity in this region affects Australia and Indonesia, and is forecast by those nations.

Southwestern Indian Ocean: This basin is the least understood, due to a lack of historical data. Cyclones forming here impact Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, and Kenya, and these nations issue forecasts and warnings for the basin.

North Atlantic Basin: The most well studied of all tropical basins, the North Atlantic includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation here varies widely from year to year, ranging from over twenty to just one. The average is about ten. The United States, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean Islands, Bermuda, and Canada are affected by storms in this basin. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) based in Miami, Florida, issues forecasts for storms for all nations in the region; the Canadian Hurricane Centre, based in Halifax, Nova Scotia, also issues forecasts and warnings for storms expected to affect Canadian territory and waters. Hurricanes that strike Mexico, Central America, and Caribbean island nations, often do intense damage: they are deadlier when over warmer water. This region causes the hurricanes that hit the coast of the United States, especially Florida, North Carolina, the US Gulf Coast and occasionally New Jersey, New York and New England (more often a hurricane has weakened to a tropical storm by the time it hits these more northerly regions). The coast of Nova Scotia, Canada also receives hurricane landfalls on even rarer occasions. Many of the more intense Atlantic storms are Cape Verde-type hurricanes, forming off the west coast of Africa near the Cape Verde islands.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes

While we call them hurricanes, other countries use a different term:


hurricane in the North Atlantic Ocean, North Pacific Ocean east of the dateline, and unofficially in the South Atlantic Ocean

typhoon in the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of the dateline

severe tropical cyclone in the Southwest Pacific Ocean west of 160°E or Southeast Indian Ocean east of 90°E

severe cyclonic storm in the North Indian Ocean

tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean east of 160°E.

KronoRed
09-22-2005, 04:07 AM
The names.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

Reds Fanatic
09-22-2005, 08:05 AM
The latest track is going further to the east. This is getting closer to New Orleans.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W+gif/084857W_sm.gif

GAC
09-22-2005, 10:50 AM
There has been nothing (land mass wise) to slow this hurricane's momentum from building to it's present level. It brushed over the tip of the Florida keys, but not the eye, and did very little there (thank God!); but in the long run it just helped to aid in it's growth.

I'm glad to see the projected regions are doing a better job this time around in evacuation and getting ready.

The whole region is on my prayers.

OldRightHander
09-22-2005, 11:17 AM
My wife has a cousin who just came to the U.S. and they settled in Houston. We talked to them last night and they were packing their car and were going to leave in the wee hours and head to Dallas until the storm is over. If they don't have a house left, they might be heading here to put up with us. I'm hearing that the highways are at a stand still right now and cars are running out of gas sitting there. Couldn't people use the back roads? I hope we'll be hearing from them soon with an update.

RBA
09-22-2005, 11:34 AM
DELETE

savafan
09-22-2005, 11:41 AM
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/09/22/D8CPAT9OC.html

By KRISTEN HAYS
Associated Press Writer

HOUSTON

Hundreds of thousands of people were frantically trying to escape the nation's fourth-largest city Thursday as Hurricane Rita approached the upper Texas coast.

But interstates were at a standstill for up to 100 miles and gas shortages were already being reported.

Gov. Rick Perry early Thursday ordered southbound traffic on Interstate 45 shut down and all eight lanes redirected north out of the city for 125 miles. Local officials warned residents to get out, and told them they would not be rescued if they waited.

"During the storm, we will not be able to get to you," Harris County Judge Robert Eckels said.

At 7 a.m. CDT Thursday, Rita was centered about 490 miles east- southeast of Galveston and was moving west-northwest near 9 mph. Wind speed was 170 mph, down slightly from 175 earlier in the day. Forecasters predicted it would come ashore near Galveston.

People unable to escape low-lying areas in Houston on their own were urged to call a city hot line, and White said 10,000 people have called. Throughout the night the city was sending buses to get them out, but people were still told they needed to count on family, friends and neighbors.

Gas stations were running out of gas and grocery stores were emptying of all nonperishable items, White said. He reiterated that there is no safe place to stay in low-lying and flood-prone areas of the city, and there won't be shelters in the city.

"There will be no central place for people to go," White said.

The mayor said everyone but emergency responders should leave.

"Now is not a time for warnings," he said. "Now is a time for action."

Texas Department of Transportation spokeswoman Janelle Gbur said Interstate 45, which is eight lanes and some points and four lanes elsewhere, was all going north to Buffalo. She said the measure had never been taken before.

Eckels said he recognized the frustration of evacuee traffic stacked bumper-to-bumper for up to 100 miles north of Houston. He reminded evacuees that the storm is still 48 hours out, leaving plenty of time for motorists stuck in traffic to complete their escapes.

"We still have time to clean out these roads," he said.

OldRightHander
09-22-2005, 11:43 AM
I'm glad the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT is doing a better job coming to these region aids.

Hmm...could we be getting dangerously close to a political statement? ;)

KittyDuran
09-22-2005, 11:45 AM
Hmm...could we be getting dangerously close to a political statement? ;)I was going to say that as well - please don't make this thread close... :pray:

RBA
09-22-2005, 11:46 AM
DELETE

Reds Fanatic
09-22-2005, 12:02 PM
My wife has a cousin who just came to the U.S. and they settled in Houston. We talked to them last night and they were packing their car and were going to leave in the wee hours and head to Dallas until the storm is over. If they don't have a house left, they might be heading here to put up with us. I'm hearing that the highways are at a stand still right now and cars are running out of gas sitting there. Couldn't people use the back roads? I hope we'll be hearing from them soon with an update. There is now a 100 mile long traffic jam coming north out of the Houston area.

Puffy
09-22-2005, 12:16 PM
There is now a 100 mile long traffic jam coming north out of the Houston area.

Was listening to the NFL Radio on Sirius this morning. Guy who called in stated he had moved about 5 miles in the last 8 hours.

Yuk.

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2005, 02:46 PM
Storm has weakened to 150 sustained winds, a powerful Cat 4.

It's projected to hit land as a strong Cat 3 or 4. Bad news is the track is shifting east, which is bad for New Orleans.

KittyDuran
09-22-2005, 02:52 PM
Was listening to the NFL Radio on Sirius this morning. Guy who called in stated he had moved about 5 miles in the last 8 hours.

Yuk.There just now changing I-45 lanes to northbound only...

Blimpie
09-22-2005, 03:15 PM
There just now changing I-45 lanes to northbound only...Probably too little, too late. Several sources were reporting traffic jams of nearly 100 miles long on that interstate. State troopers were having to shuttle gas out to cars that ran completely out while in line. There are stories of people moving 6 miles in 3 hours and so forth. Switching all lanes to northbound will help somewhat, but--best case scenario--you are still looking at a crawl's pace with more people joining the fray every moment.

OldRightHander
09-22-2005, 03:19 PM
I have been trying to reach my wife's cousin (What would that make her to me?) who was supposed to be leaving Houston sometime in the middle of last night, but nobody is answering the phone. I thought the number I have saved in my phone was a cell phone number, but maybe not. I would kind of like to know how far they managed to get before the traffic snarled.

Blimpie
09-22-2005, 03:34 PM
I have been trying to reach my wife's cousin (What would that make her to me?) who was supposed to be leaving Houston sometime in the middle of last night, but nobody is answering the phone. I thought the number I have saved in my phone was a cell phone number, but maybe not. I would kind of like to know how far they managed to get before the traffic snarled.

Doesn't sound too promising, ORH...


Houston-Area Residents Flee As Rita Nears
Sep 22 11:27 AM US/Eastern


By ALICIA A. CALDWELL
Associated Press Writer


GALVESTON, Texas


Traffic came to a standstill and gas shortages were reported Thursday as hundreds of thousands of people in the Houston metropolitan area rushed to get out of the path of Hurricane Rita, a monster storm with 165 mph winds.

More than 1.3 million residents in Texas and Louisiana were under orders to evacuate to avoid a deadly repeat of Katrina.

The Category 5 storm weakened slightly Thursday morning, and forecasters said it could lose more steam by the time it comes ashore late Friday or early Saturday. But it could still be an extremely dangerous hurricane _ one aimed straight at a section of coastline with the nation's biggest concentration of oil refineries.

"Don't follow the example of Katrina and wait. No one will come and get you during the storm," Harris County Judge Robert Eckels said in Houston.

In New Orleans, meanwhile, Rita's outer bands brought the first rain to the city since Rita, raising fears that the patched-up levees could give way and cause a new round of flooding.

Highways leading inland out of Houston were clogged with bumper-to- bumper traffic for up to 100 miles north of the city. Gas stations were reported to be running out of gas. Shoppers emptied grocery store shelves of spaghetti, tuna and other nonperishable items. Hotels hundreds of miles inland filled up. Police officers along the highways carried gasoline to help motorists who ran out.

To speed the evacuation out of the nation's fourth-largest city, Gov. Rick Perry ordered a halt to all southbound traffic into Houston along Interstate 45 and took the unprecedented stop of directing the opening all eight lanes to northbound traffic out of the city for 125 miles. I-45 is the primary evacuation route north from Houston and Galveston.

Trazanna Moreno tried to leave Houston for the 225-mile trip to Dallas on U.S. 90 but turned back after getting stuck in traffic.

"We ended up going six miles in two hours and 45 minutes," said Moreno, whose neighborhood is not expected to flood. "It could be that if we ended up stranded in the middle of nowhere that we'd be in a worse position in a car dealing with hurricane-force winds than we would in our house.

With traffic at a dead halt, fathers and sons got out of their cars and played catch on freeway medians. Others stood next to their cars, videotaping the scene, or walked between vehicles, chatting with people along the way. Tow trucks tried to wend their way along the shoulders, pulling stalled cars out of the way.

Hotels hours inland filled up, all the way to the Oklahoma and Arkansas line.

John Decker, 47, decided to board up his home and hunker down because he could not find a hotel room.

"I've been calling since yesterday morning all the way up to about 1 this morning. No vacancies anywhere," he said. "I checked all the way from here to Del Rio to Eagle Pass. I called as far as Lufkin, San Marcos, San Angelo. The only place I didn't call was El Paso. By the time you reach El Paso, it's almost time to turn back."

At 11 a.m. EDT, Rita was centered about 460 miles southeast of Galveston and was moving at near 9 mph. It winds were 165 mph, down slightly from 175 mph earlier in the day. Forecasters predicted it would come ashore somewhere between the Houston-Galveston area and western Louisiana.

Hurricane-force winds extended 85 miles from the center of the storm, and even a slight rightward turn could prove devastating to the Katrina-fractured levees protecting New Orleans. Engineers rushed to fix the city's pumps and fortify its levees.

Forecasters said Rita could be the strongest hurricane on record ever to hit Texas. Only three Category 5 hurricanes, the highest on the scale, are known to have hit the U.S. mainland _ most recently, Andrew, which smashed South Florida in 1992.

The U.S. mainland has never been hit by both a Category 4 and a Category 5 in the same season. Katrina came ashore Aug. 29 as a Category 4 hurricane.

Galveston, Corpus Christi and surrounding Nueces County, low-lying parts of Houston, and mostly emptied-out New Orleans were under mandatory evacuation orders as Rita swirled across the Gulf of Mexico, drawing energy with terrifying efficiency from its warm waters.

"It's not worth staying here," said Celia Martinez as she and several relatives finished packing up their homes and pets. "Life is more important than things."

Along the Gulf Coast, federal, state and local officials heeded the bitter lessons of Katrina: Hundreds of buses were dispatched to evacuate the poor. Hospital and nursing home patients were cleared out. And truckloads of water, ice and ready-made meals, and rescue and medical teams were put on standby.

"Now is not a time for warnings. Now is a time for action," Houston Mayor Bill White said.

He added: "There is no good place to put a shelter that could take a direct hit from a Category 5 hurricane. I don't want anybody out there watching this and thinking that somebody is bound to open a local school for me on Friday, not with a hurricane packing these kinds of winds."

Galveston was a virtual ghost town by late Wednesday. The coastal city of 58,000 _ situated on an island 8 feet above sea level _ was nearly wiped off the map in 1900 when an unnamed hurricane killed between 6,000 and 12,000 in what is still the nation's deadliest natural disaster.

City Manager Steve LeBlanc said the storm surge from Rita could reach 50 feet. Galveston is protected by a nearly 11-mile-long granite seawall 17 feet tall.

"Not a good picture for us," LeBlanc said.

In Houston, the state's largest city and home to the highest concentration of Katrina refugees, geography makes evacuation particularly tricky. While many hurricane-prone cities are right on the coast, Houston is 60 miles inland, so a coastal suburban area of 2 million people must evacuate through a metropolitan area of 4 million people where the freeways are often clogged under the best of circumstances.

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas said buses used to take people and their pets off the island were running in short supply Wednesday and warned that stragglers could be left to fend for themselves.

Meanwhile, the death toll from Katrina passed the 1,000 mark Wednesday in five Gulf Coast states. The body count in Louisiana alone was put at nearly 800, with most of the corpses found in the receding floodwaters of New Orleans.

Crude oil prices rose again on fears that Rita would destroy key oil installations in Texas and the gulf. Hundreds of workers were evacuated from offshore oil rigs. Texas, the heart of U.S. crude production, accounts for 25 percent of the nation's total oil output.

Rita is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, making this the fourth-busiest season since record-keeping started in 1851. The record is 21 tropical storms in 1933. The hurricane season is not over until Nov. 30.

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2005, 04:15 PM
MSNBC said the pressure dropped a little which means the weaking has stopped or even strenghthened a bit.

I can't imagine moving 6 miles in 8 hours. I couldn't take that...I would probably turn around and foolishly attempt to ride the storm out.

Reds Fanatic
09-22-2005, 04:32 PM
I have been trying to reach my wife's cousin (What would that make her to me?) who was supposed to be leaving Houston sometime in the middle of last night, but nobody is answering the phone. I thought the number I have saved in my phone was a cell phone number, but maybe not. I would kind of like to know how far they managed to get before the traffic snarled. I read an article from the Houston Chronicle that it is taking 16 hours to drive from Houston to Dallas so they are probably still on the road.

OldRightHander
09-22-2005, 04:33 PM
Let's remember this the next time we want to complain about the weather in Cincinnati.

Cyclone792
09-22-2005, 04:38 PM
Maybe there's a lack of reporting on the traffic jams - and that could be likely - but it seems most people down there could use a map or three ... it seems like all the traffic is concentrated on going north on I-45. My question is why?

Looking at my map and taking into consideration of the storm's projected path, I'd head west by hopping on I-10 and heading to San Antonio or jumping on US-290 and rolling on into Austin. If those cities are still too close to the path, well then I-10 keeps going further west after hitting San Antonio (and Austin is very close to I-10). If those routes are jammed up, how about southwest on US-59 near Corpus Christi? If Corpus Christi is still too close to the storm, jump on I-37 north and head to San Antonio or head south towards the US-Mexico border on US-77.

I don't know about anybody else, but sitting in a traffic jam on north I-45 is the last place I'd want to be, especially since the projected path of the storm is due north once it hits land. I mean, maybe I'm mistaken, but I-45 north of Houston is going to get slammed itself. Look at Hurricane Katrina and how it tore up cities such as Jackson, MS, and Jackson is what, maybe 150 miles from the coast?

Sheesh, I think I'd be muttering to myself "Go west, young man!"

Cyclone792
09-22-2005, 04:38 PM
I read an article from the Houston Chronicle that it is taking 16 hours to drive from Houston to Dallas so they are probably still on the road.

See my post above :)

OldRightHander
09-22-2005, 04:48 PM
If it was me I would be looking for some less travelled 2 lane roads since most people tend to only use interstates these days. But in the case of my wife's cousin and her family, you have to consider that they came here from Kenya and haven't been in Houston that long, so they're probably sitting on 45 in a traffic jam somewhere, unless they left early enough to get through before everything stopped. They're still not anwering their phone, so maybe there's a bad signal where they are or they forgot to charge it. I guess we'll just wait and see if they call us and let us know what's going on.

Cyclone792
09-22-2005, 04:58 PM
If it was me I would be looking for some less travelled 2 lane roads since most people tend to only use interstates these days. But in the case of my wife's cousin and her family, you have to consider that they came here from Kenya and haven't been in Houston that long, so they're probably sitting on 45 in a traffic jam somewhere, unless they left early enough to get through before everything stopped. They're still not anwering their phone, so maybe there's a bad signal where they are or they forgot to charge it. I guess we'll just wait and see if they call us and let us know what's going on.

Yep, two lane roads, state highways, US highways, etc ... people tend to forget the Interstate system isn't that old, and 50 years ago those US highways and state highways that are 2-4 lanes were what you used to get to places.

Your wife's cousin's family is a special case, as they have somewhere specific to go. I imagine there are many others who are also heading somewhere specific such as a family's place. They're unfamiliar with the area, I'm sure, and probably wouldn't have many other options.

But for those people just getting out somewhere out of the way of the storm to go live in a hotel, I would be going to the safest area where the fewest people seem to be going, which based off news reports is west. Heck, if it was me, I could live out of my car for a few days if it really came down to it. Reaching safe land would would be all I'd need; I'd manage after that.

registerthis
09-22-2005, 04:59 PM
Was listening to the NFL Radio on Sirius this morning. Guy who called in stated he had moved about 5 miles in the last 8 hours.

Yuk.Sounds like the Beltway.

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2005, 06:08 PM
Winds at 145 sustained. Pressure at 913. Moving at only 9 mph. Still shifting a bit to the east.

New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain now under a Tropical Storm Warning.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/221735.shtml

MSNBC says the storm didn't weaken as much as they originally thought; Hurricane Center now says it will make landfall as a Cat 4. MSNBC meteorologist says the storm is slowing down. Map shows it making landfall around the TX/LA border... and stalling out over land. Expect extreme flooding.

RBA
09-22-2005, 06:18 PM
Not good for the run-off into the Mississippi River flowing down towards New Orleans.

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2005, 06:33 PM
In New Orleans, meanwhile, Rita’s outer bands brought the first measurable rain to the city since Katrina. The water pressure was beginning to build against some of the hurricane-battered levees.

According to The Associated Press, by Thursday afternoon there was already a foot of water in areas that were nearly dry Wednesday in the city’s Ninth Ward, where some of the worst flooding from Katrina occurred.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9389157/

Unassisted
09-22-2005, 06:49 PM
I'm sitting here watching a future radar loop on the DTV feed of one of my local stations. Looks like Rita may make a 45 degree turn into Louisiana and head north after it makes landfall east of Houston. I've heard estimates of 15" of rain pouring into New Orleans under that scenario. Baton Rouge could get a good soaking, too.

Unassisted
09-22-2005, 06:56 PM
Probably too little, too late. Several sources were reporting traffic jams of nearly 100 miles long on that interstate. State troopers were having to shuttle gas out to cars that ran completely out while in line. There are stories of people moving 6 miles in 3 hours and so forth. Switching all lanes to northbound will help somewhat, but--best case scenario--you are still looking at a crawl's pace with more people joining the fray every moment.Looked to me like it was working fairly well, once they got it going. The I-10 stretch was a real challenge, since that's over 100 miles of interstate. TexDOT worked backwards on the conversion, moving toward Houston, so it took a while to have an effect. Doing that on 2 interstates is a fairly impressive feat, considering contraflow had never been done before in Texas and the plan to do it came together in the last 24 hours.

A lot of people in Houston won't need to evacuate, since the maximum winds will be below 100 mph there now. As long as they're not in the path of the storm surge, if they're in a sturdy building, they should be just fine.

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2005, 08:01 PM
The NOAA plane reports the pressure has dropped back down to 911 MB, down from 915 earlier. Looks like it is entering extremely warm waters again.

SandyD
09-22-2005, 08:24 PM
my sister turned back and will ride out the storm in Houston. Her neighborhood flooded during Alicia, but not her home. But there's a wooded area behind her home with very tall trees that could do some damage.

She's already had tornado damage since she's been in that home.

My coworker's family, who evacuated from New Orleans to Houston, made it to Austin and turned back.

My family in the New Orleans area are staying put ... in Jefferson Parish. Hopefully it won't get too bad there.

RBA
09-22-2005, 11:19 PM
Looks like compared to Houston, New Orleans did a lot better job with getting all lanes going out open. New Orleans had a lot less time to get out and the TXDot took a real long time to open all the lanes up. Many people turned back to Houston and plan on riding it out.

Cyclone792
09-22-2005, 11:44 PM
Looks like compared to Houston, New Orleans did a lot better job with getting all lanes going out open. New Orleans had a lot less time to get out and the TXDot took a real long time to open all the lanes up. Many people turned back to Houston and plan on riding it out.

Houston's the 4th largest city in America, and much much larger than New Orleans. There's simply too many people living in that metropolitan area.

What's worse, there's only two main Interstate cogs that run through the city, and you can only go one direction on each of those highways to reach safe ground. Even here in Cincy there are three main Interstates one could use to evacuate the city should that ever need to happen, and this is a much smaller city than Houston.

RBA
09-22-2005, 11:47 PM
Houston's the 4th largest city in America, and much much larger than New Orleans. There's simply too many people living in that metropolitan area.

All the more reason they should have a counterflow plan in place. The mayor had to beg the governor to get it done.

Cyclone792
09-23-2005, 12:17 AM
All the more reason they should have a counterflow plan in place. The mayor had to beg the governor to get it done.

Well, that's bordering on a highly subjective political intrepretation, and one I'm not comfortable making. I don't know the actual context of the discussions that took place to set up the evacuation plans, and I'm sure few really do. That said - and knowing the rules of this forum - it's pointless to talk about it.

I've never been to Houston, but just knowing how many people reside in the city and its suburbs and looking at a map, there just does not appear to be a decent ratio of roads/people to be able to effectively evacuate the city in less than about four or five days. Add in the fact that you can't go east and you can't go south, and it just compounds the problem. Like I said, Houston has a significantly larger population than even Cincinnati, but it appears that there are more main cogs (Interstates, US Highways, State Highways, etc.) to get out of Cincinnati than there does Houston. That's not any one person's fault; it's just how the region's street engineering evolved over the past century.

Unassisted
09-23-2005, 01:04 AM
That's not any one person's fault; it's just how the region's street engineering evolved over the past century.Houston's obviously landlocked to the south. Going east is a less favorable option right now, with lodging at a premium in Louisiana. Both of those circumstances combine to put a large amount of traffic on the roads to the north and west.

Most people didn't think to use routes that aren't at least a four-lane highway to get between major cities, so the major highways slowed to a crawl.

Houston traffic is an order of magnitude worse than Cincinnati's on a normal day. It's probably the biggest reason I wouldn't want to live there. Hearing the stories of the people whose vehicles crawled their way to San Antonio for 12 hours makes me doubly glad I don't live there.

Unassisted
09-23-2005, 01:13 AM
Many people turned back to Houston and plan on riding it out.Mrs. U has a couple of co-workers whose families turned back after sitting on Houston interstates for hours today, so I know that's true.

If they're not in the well-documented storm surge flood areas or living in a rickety old building, staying home is exactly what they should have done in the first place. I think people in the metro area there were so spooked by the Katrina footage out of New Orleans that they over-reacted. It's understandable, but unfortunate.

Cyclone792
09-23-2005, 01:36 AM
Houston's obviously landlocked to the south. Going east is a less favorable option right now, with lodging at a premium in Louisiana. Both of those circumstances combine to put a large amount of traffic on the roads to the north and west.

Most people didn't think to use routes that aren't at least a four-lane highway to get between major cities, so the major highways slowed to a crawl.

Houston traffic is an order of magnitude worse than Cincinnati's on a normal day. It's probably the biggest reason I wouldn't want to live there. Hearing the stories of the people whose vehicles crawled their way to San Antonio for 12 hours makes me doubly glad I don't live there.

Yep, it's unfortunate that most people probably didn't think to use other routes besides the main beltways to get out. Of course, it could be possible that any mention of major traffic jams on smaller roads are not being reported in the national media. One would think local information would be available for tracking and updating the residents on any available route to just get out of harm's way, but that's an unknown for those of us not in the area.

pedro
09-23-2005, 02:11 AM
One of my good friends and his family live in the west Houston suburbs. They chose to stay because they just didn't think it was feasible to get out on the roads leaving Houston. I think they biggest thing they have to worry about is trees falling as there are a lot of big trees in their neighborhood.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 02:27 AM
Forecasters said publicly that the hurricane would come ashore somewhere between Galveston and the Louisiana border, but emergency officials were told that the likely landfall point was near the Texas towns of Beaumont and Port Arthur. The National Weather Service warned of massive 15- to 20-foot-high storm surges and the prospect of flooding miles inland. "We've brought the winds down a little bit here, but it's going over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico tonight," warned Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. "We actually think it has a chance to strengthen again tonight and in the early morning hours."Even 400 miles out in the Gulf, the hurricane spun advance tendrils of rain over flood-weary New Orleans and swelled tides along the Louisiana and Mississippi coast by two feet. The weather service declared a tropical storm warning in southern Louisiana and cautioned that the hurricane would likely gather strength overnight.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-rita23sep23,0,7527767.story?coll=la-home-headlines


Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, said Rita will hit a deep trench of warm water and could intensify before landfall, possibly to Category 5 status.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/23/rita/index.html

Reds Fanatic
09-23-2005, 09:55 AM
Another problem has occured. A bus fire has killed 20 people and closed one of the evacuation routes.


HOUSTON (Reuters) - A bus burst into flames outside Dallas on Friday, killing 20 people and closing a primary evacuation route for Hurricane Rita, local television WFAA reported.

"It burst into flames with black smoke coming from the bus, and then we saw the fire," witness Ashley Donald told Houston television station KTRK.


BREAKING NEWS
NBC, MSNBC and news services
Updated: 8:47 a.m. ET Sept. 23, 2005
DALLAS - A bus filled with 45 elderly Hurricane Rita evacuees from the Houston area caught fire early Friday on gridlocked Interstate 45, leaving an undetermined number of deaths and injuries.

"There were 45 souls on the bus ... at this point we believe we have about half accounted for," Dallas County Sheriff's spokesman Sgt. Don Peritz. He said early indications were that a mechanical problem caused the blaze and that passengers' oxygen tanks caught fire.

Separately, the local WFAA TV station reported that 20 evacuees were killed in the tragedy.

The bus was engulfed with flames, causing a 17-mile backup on a freeway that was already heavily congested with evacuees from the Gulf Coast.

By early Friday morning, the bus was reduced to a blackened, burned-out shell, surrounded by numerous police cars and ambulances.

"The early indications are this is a mechanical issue," Peritz said. "The driver did survive the accident. It's my understanding he went back onto the bus several times to try to evacuate people."

KittyDuran
09-23-2005, 10:02 AM
Yep, it's unfortunate that most people probably didn't think to use other routes besides the main beltways to get out. Of course, it could be possible that any mention of major traffic jams on smaller roads are not being reported in the national media. One would think local information would be available for tracking and updating the residents on any available route to just get out of harm's way, but that's an unknown for those of us not in the area.I'm listening to 950 AM out of Houston (via Internet) and many people are calling talking about taking alternate routes that were not interstates and getting out of the city.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 11:45 AM
Unreal. MSNBC reports a levee near the 9th Ward in NO has breached, water is pouring over the levee. Apparently, the breach is 30 feet wide. Water is up to waste deep and rising quickly.

CNN, MSNBC, and FX News are all running it as breaking news.

Blimpie
09-23-2005, 12:05 PM
All the more reason they should have a counterflow plan in place. The mayor had to beg the governor to get it done.Really any coastal area in either the Gulf or on the Atlantic side should have their infrastructure prepared for these disasters. Believe it or not, these fixes are not that expensive (relative to their tangible benefits received); however, the different communities are all relying upon FEMA for guidance....Big mistake. This was discussed pretty thoroughly during the Katrina thread:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=822846#post822846

OldRightHander
09-23-2005, 12:08 PM
Unreal. MSNBC reports a levee near the 9th Ward in NO has breached, water is pouring over the levee. Apparently, the breach is 30 feet wide. Water is up to waste deep and rising quickly.

CNN, MSNBC, and FX News are all running it as breaking news.

No pun intended there, I hope.

Unassisted
09-23-2005, 12:12 PM
Unreal. MSNBC reports a levee near the 9th Ward in NO has breached, water is pouring over the levee. Apparently, the breach is 30 feet wide. Water is up to waste deep and rising quickly.

CNN, MSNBC, and FX News are all running it as breaking news.Not breached, just topped. Lake water is higher than the top of the levee. That's an important distinction.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 12:19 PM
I stand corrected.

They say the water is rising 3 inches per minute in some spots.

Anyway, it looks like the storm will hit land as a strong Cat 3. Winds down to 135, just four above a Cat 3.

RBA
09-23-2005, 12:20 PM
sustain winds down to 135 and it looks to weaken and come ashore as a 3. 3 is still bad.

Reds Fanatic
09-23-2005, 12:35 PM
Texas officials have said they expect hurricane force winds to exist in southeast Texas for about 16 straight hours tomorrow. Also if it maintains its current course the entire city of Port Arthur is expected to be flooded.

Unassisted
09-23-2005, 12:37 PM
I stand corrected.

They say the water is rising 3 inches per minute in some spots.

No problem. It's defintely a setback, but not as dire as a breach. I just started watching a live feed of a news conference from Baton Rouge. The levee repairs were composed of sandbags and loose gravel. The rain has washed away some of the loose gravel, which allows seepage. The official delivering the news conference was emphatic that it was not a breach.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 12:42 PM
Fox News says the storm may stall out over Texas and Louisiana and drop 25-30 inches of rain. That's a whole lot of rain.

CNN Photographer: Water in 9th Ward is rising 5-10 inches per minute.

Reds Fanatic
09-23-2005, 12:42 PM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9438536/


BREAKING NEWS

Updated: 11:33 a.m. ET Sept. 23, 2005
NEW ORLEANS - Hurricane Rita’s steady rains sent water pouring over a patched levee Friday, cascading into one of the city’s lowest-lying neighborhoods in a devastating repeat of New Orleans’ flooding nightmare.

“Our worst fears came true,” said Maj. Barry Guidry of the Georgia National Guard.

“We have three significant breaches in the levee and the water is rising rapidly,” he said. “At daybreak I found substantial breaks and they’ve grown larger.”

Dozens of blocks in the Ninth Ward were under water as a waterfall at least 30 feet wide poured over and through a dike that had been used to patch breaks in the Industrial Canal levee. On the street that runs parallel to the canal, the water ran waist-deep and was rising fast. Guidry said water was rising about three inches a minute.

The impoverished neighborhood was one of the areas of the city hit hardest by Katrina’s floodwaters and finally had been pumped dry before Hurricane Rita struck.

Ninth Ward believed cleared of residents
Sally Forman, an aide to Mayor Ray Nagin, said officials knew the levees were compromised, but they believe that the Ninth Ward is cleared of residents.

“I wouldn’t imagine there’s one person down there,” Forman said.

Mitch Frazier, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers, said contractors were being brought in Friday morning in an effort to repair the new damage. The corps had earlier installed 60-foot sections of metal across some of the city’s canals to protect against flooding and storm surges.

Forecasters have called for between 3 and 5 inches of rain in New Orleans as Rita passes Friday and Saturday, dangerously close to the 6 inches of rain that Corps officials say the patched levees can withstand.

Another concern is the storm surge accompanying Rita, which could send water rising as much as 4 feet above high tide.

Already Friday morning, a steady 20 mph wind, with gusts to 35 mph, was blowing, along with steady rains.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 01:57 PM
Fox News is showing live video of the water overflowing the levee, it's amazing how fast the water is pouring in.

And now St. Bernard's Parish is starting to fill up with water.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 04:14 PM
Rita's winds are well below what a normal 931 MB should be. That's good news but this is still a dangerous storm. This storm is expected to dump a ton of rain over Texas and Louisiana.


Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 125 Mph With Higher Gusts. Rita Is Now A Category Three Hurricane On The Saffir-Simpson Scale. A Further Slow Weakening Is Possible Before Landfall... But Rita Is Still Expected To Come Ashore As A Dangerous Hurricane.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles From The Center... And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 205 Miles. An Elevated Platform On Isle Denieres Near The South-Central Louisiana Coast Just Reported Sustained Winds Of 58 Mph.

Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reconnaissance Plane Was 931 Mb... 27.49 Inches.

http://www.weatherhub.com/Hurricane/

RFS62
09-23-2005, 04:48 PM
Looks like a massive flood coming from this one.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 05:04 PM
Bill Hemmer says the 9th Ward of NO is submerged. The water was also spilling into the Arabi area of St. Bernard Parish from the same portion of the seawall that broke after Katrina near four weeks ago.


However, about 10 blocks north, or closer to Lake Pontchartain, water was flowing strongly into the downtown, or west side of the canal on the opposite bank.

The water was whitecapping across the north side of the France Road/Alvar Road overpass over the industrial railroad tracks along Florida Avenue on the downtown New Orleans side of the canal, nearing the turning basin that connects the canal with the Intracoastal waterway.

Nearby, a new housing development, the water was rising to the raised porch levels, but far below the high-water mark on the sides of the houses. First-floor windows had been opened to help dry the flooded first floors of the new houses.

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050923/NEWS01/50923025

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 05:16 PM
By the way, the Reds first round pick, Jay Bruce, is from Beaumont, Texas, which is expected to be hit hard. Also, Dunn lives in Porter, Texas, about 40 miles north of Houston. Hopefully their homes make it through without serious damage.

KittyDuran
09-23-2005, 05:29 PM
By the way, the Reds first round pick, Jay Bruce, is from Beaumont, Texas, which is expected to be hit hard. Also, Dunn lives in Porter, Texas, about 40 miles north of Houston. Hopefully their homes make it through without serious damage.Two snippets on Dunn...

From the Enquirer:
DUNN WATCH: Outfielder Adam Dunn was watching the Weather Channel again Thursday. Hurricane Rita is bearing down on his hometown of Houston.

His father, Skip, is preparing Dunn's house for a hit.

"He has this big generator he's started once a year for like 20 years just for stuff like this," Dunn said.

Dunn went through one major hurricane. Alicia hit Houston in 1983, when he was 4.

"We lost like 50 trees in that one,' he said.

From the Reds website:
Weather watcher: Adam Dunn has been glued to coverage of Hurricane Rita the past two days, and for good reason.

Dunn's Porter, Texas, home could very well be affected by the Category 4 storm, which is expected to hit the state this weekend.

"It's going to be bad," Dunn said.

Dunn's father, Skip, has been busy readying the slugger's home, which sits about 40 miles north of Houston, for the storm.

"My dad handles all of that," Dunn said. "He's taking the WaveRunner out of the water, and he's taking all of the furniture out. Luckily, I had a bunch of trees that I didn't like taken out a couple months ago, so that's good."

Dunn will continue to watch the hurricane updates, fearing the worst as well as some less-discussed effects.

"This is going to screw up fishing, too," he said.

ghettochild
09-23-2005, 05:35 PM
LOL about the fishing

OldRightHander
09-23-2005, 05:45 PM
Dunn went through one major hurricane. Alicia hit Houston in 1983, when he was 4.

Now that will make you feel old.

KronoRed
09-23-2005, 05:59 PM
Not me..I was only 2 ;)

OldRightHander
09-23-2005, 06:01 PM
Not me..I was only 2 ;)

Thanks a lot. I was in high school.

Blimpie
09-23-2005, 06:02 PM
Not me..I was only 2 ;)No fair using dog years.... :D

RFS62
09-23-2005, 06:08 PM
I worked that storm.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 06:15 PM
Not me..I was only 2 ;)

I wasn't even born yet.

KronoRed
09-23-2005, 06:43 PM
I wasn't even born yet.

...and now I feel old :lol:

Unassisted
09-23-2005, 06:47 PM
Dunn's home in Porter probably won't blow away, but it will get soaked by rain. I hope his flood insurance is paid up.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2005, 11:56 PM
Looks like this storm will make landfall in extreme western Louisiana.

Chad Meyers says the storm will stall out and dump up to 24 inches of rain in Texas and LA. Outer bands will continue to hit NO.

RFS62
09-24-2005, 12:13 AM
Looks like this storm will make landfall in extreme western Louisiana.

Chad Meyers says the storm will stall out and dump up to 24 inches of rain in Texas and LA. Outer bands will continue to hit NO.


If that happens, it will be an incredible flood.

Not nearly the wind damage of Katrina, but tremendous inland flooding.

OnBaseMachine
09-24-2005, 12:14 AM
Some dude on CNN reporting live from Texas just got hit in the chest with a piece of flying cardboard.

RFS62
09-24-2005, 12:16 AM
Some dude on CNN reporting live from Texas just got hit in the chest with a piece of flying cardboard.


Someday one of them will get hit in the head with a flying roof tile, and the reporting from the field in a freakin' hurricane will stop.

ochre
09-24-2005, 12:20 AM
If that happens, it will be an incredible flood.

Not nearly the wind damage of Katrina, but tremendous inland flooding.
Which takes some of the load of the insurance companies, as Flood Insurance is a federal program?

OnBaseMachine
09-24-2005, 12:28 AM
Someday one of them will get hit in the head with a flying roof tile, and the reporting from the field in a freakin' hurricane will stop.

Yep. I was flipping through the channels a little while ago, and some guy was reporting in front of a windmill made of metal wings. Very smart. If those things fly off the windmill, we will witness a decapitation on live TV.

RFS62
09-24-2005, 01:02 AM
Which takes some of the load of the insurance companies, as Flood Insurance is a federal program?


Yeah, the National Flood Insurance Program is administered by FEMA. It's insurance that no private carrier would touch with a ten foot pole.

It's very restrictive, too. No replacement cost on personal property, limits of $250,000 for building coverage and $100,000 on contents.

It's sold by the private carriers, like State Farm and Allstate, but FEMA pays all the claims.

Reds Fanatic
09-24-2005, 01:02 AM
A major fire has broken out in the historic strand district of Galveston. 3 buildings are on fire and the winds from the hurricane are blowing the flames around. An electrical wire fell on one of the buildings starting the fire. One of these buildings was built in 1905.

RFS62
09-24-2005, 01:12 AM
I'm about 250 miles from the eye of Rita, 100 yards from the ocean, and the wind is whipping so hard you can't believe it. I've been going out on the balcony all night taking pictures and video and it's hard to stand up without being blown off balance. Gusts are over 50 mph, and probably up to 70 at the highest here. If you wore a hat, it would fly off and disappear immediately. Flags are whipping so hard they may tear off the poles. The waves are 8 to 10 feet high and crashing much closere to the hotel than normal. It's an awesome sight.

I can't imagine being at ground zero.

We'll probably lose power sometime tonight, maybe not, but I wouldn't be surprised.

SandyD
09-24-2005, 12:09 PM
62, look at the models for Rita's future path ... three of them project Rita will loop around and head back out into the gulf sometimes next week. Two of them have them re-emerging east ... AL, MS border, and Fla panhandle. One in Texas, and heading into Mex.

The other two project it turning south in MS.

Keep an eye out. You may need to seek higher ground.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html

TeamBoone
09-24-2005, 12:12 PM
Dunn's home in Porter probably won't blow away, but it will get soaked by rain. I hope his flood insurance is paid up.

They keep saying his home is in Poreter, but according to all the articles I read when he bought it, it's in Lake Conroe which isn't far from Porter but isn't Porter. Porter is where his parents live.

OnBaseMachine
09-28-2005, 07:44 PM
A new storm may be brewing and they are already saying it could move into the Gulf and threaten New Orleans again. :thumbdown


Stan drifts west of Haiti: the tropical wave moves through rising heat
Officially known as "99L Invest" the weather system that will likely become the eighteenth named storm of the record 2005 hurricane season in the next couple of days as it ominously moves toward the battered Gulf States of the USA. As can be seen by the Composite Sea Surface Temperature — satellite image map above — the conditions are favorable for this system to gain strength as it moves through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico.

The tropical wave could gain strength and become "Tropical Storm Stan" before moving into the Gulf. In the last couple of years extremely dangerous hurricanes - Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Emily - have taken that similar route near the Yucatan Channel. After moving into The Gulf this system could find the warmest currents to become a hurricane which would threaten New Orleans with a storm surge for the third time this year. The National Hurricane Center of Miami Florida is warning interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the rest of the northwest Caribbean to closely monitor the progress of this system over the next few days.

http://www.haitiaction.net/News/HIP/9_27_5/9_27_5.html#anchor1

SandyD
09-28-2005, 08:10 PM
That would be just wrong.