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KittyDuran
09-21-2005, 06:49 PM
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050921/SPT04/309210019

Wednesday, September 21, 2005
O'Brien to return
Allen: 'He's done a good job'

By John Fay
Enquirer staff writer



The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

The Cincinnati Reds' general manager Dan O'Brien watches his position players on their first official day of Spring Training in Sarasota, Florida on February 22, 2005.

General manager Dan O’Brien will be back next season, Reds chief operating officer John Allen said today.

“Dan’s done everything we’ve asked of him,” Allen said. “He’s done a good job.”

Next year will be the final year of O’Brien’s three-year contract. Going into tonight’s game, the Reds were 146-166 under O’Brien.

Some of O’Brien’s major moves – trading reliever Chris Reitsma and signing pitcher Eric Milton – have not gone well.

O’Brien was brought in with a mandate to rebuild the team’s player development and scouting departments.

“We’re moving along with that,” Allen said.

There is uncertainty about the team’s future. Reds minority owners Louise Nippert, George Strike and Gannett Co. Inc. – The Enquirer’s owner – in March said they would combine to sell 51.5 percent of the team.

The team’s ownership agreement gives Reds chief executive officer Carl Lindner operating control for life, so day-to-day management of the team is not expected to change with the sale.

But any potential buyer is expected to try to negotiate a deal with Lindner for a transition and in the long term would control the team’s ownership.

Allen would not comment on the sale.

“But it’s business as usual,” he said. “Mr. Lindner is the controlling partner. We’re moving forward.”

VI_RedsFan
09-21-2005, 06:53 PM
Wonderful

KronoRed
09-21-2005, 06:54 PM
This wouldn't be so hard to read if it didn't have Allen saying "he's done a good job"

:explode:

Reds4Life
09-21-2005, 06:55 PM
Excuse me while I go kill myself now.

That means Narron will be back next year as well, oh joy.

:bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

RDriesen16
09-21-2005, 06:56 PM
whats so funny is. its one moron saying another has done everything we've asked. that may be. but when the one asking doesnt know what he is doing. then whats it matter. another year, another 2 or 3 years of being set back.

Falls City Beer
09-21-2005, 06:58 PM
There's no head-shaking emoticon.

KittyDuran
09-21-2005, 06:59 PM
There's no head-shaking emoticon.Vertical or horizontal??? ;) [it's so hard to tell sometimes on this board...] :evil:

westofyou
09-21-2005, 07:00 PM
http://www.deadballart.com/redszone/mr.gif

KronoRed
09-21-2005, 07:00 PM
:dunno: works well for me

Matt700wlw
09-21-2005, 07:01 PM
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050921/SPT04/309210019


Allen: 'He's done a good job'



I have no comment. :runaway:

OnBaseMachine
09-21-2005, 07:02 PM
Sometimes I hate myself for being a Reds fan. This is one of those times.

Worst. Ran. Organization. In. Sports.

cumberlandreds
09-21-2005, 07:05 PM
“Dan’s done everything we’ve asked of him,” Allen said. “He’s done a good job.”

Then Allen should be fired if he asked O'Brien to sign a pitcher to 3 year $25 million contract who now has over a six era and can't get past the third inning most nights.
This really isn't a surprise to me. I figured he would be back. It's par for the course for the Reds.

SteelSD
09-21-2005, 07:06 PM
I have no words.

Matt700wlw
09-21-2005, 07:07 PM
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050921/SPT04/309210019



“But it’s business as usual,” he said. “Mr. Lindner is the controlling partner. We’re moving forward.”

Is that what this team has been doing? :bang:

Falls City Beer
09-21-2005, 07:08 PM
Sometimes I hate myself for being a Reds fan. This is one of those times.

Worst. Ran. Organization. In. Sports.

This FO is run just like the President's administration--admit no mistake, no folly as you drive a beloved institution into the ditch.

John Allen, as stupid as he is, knows that O'Brien has done a horrific job; but he and Lindner will be damned if they admit they blew it.

VI_RedsFan
09-21-2005, 07:13 PM
I just think that it's crazy that we are bringing back the man who is paying 8 million dollars a year to ERIC MILTON. ERIC MILTON!!!!

M2
09-21-2005, 07:14 PM
Worst ... news ... ever.

Our only real hope is that Allen isn't really going to have a say in who the GM is.

As an aside, there's probably a fascinating story behind this supposed sale, unfortunately the Cincinnati media lacks the energy and ability to get it.

M2
09-21-2005, 07:16 PM
One more thing -

“But it’s business as usual."

Well that's the problem right there, isn't it?

Reds4Life
09-21-2005, 07:17 PM
One more thing -

“But it’s business as usual."

Well that's the problem right there, isn't it?

When I read that quote from Allen the first thing that popped into my mind was "you got that right".

snowstorm
09-21-2005, 07:18 PM
Dumb move, but not a big surprise. Just business as usual for this club. :rant2:

flyer85
09-21-2005, 07:20 PM
losing as usual

Matt700wlw
09-21-2005, 07:22 PM
Worst ... news ... ever.

Our only real hope is that Allen isn't really going to have a say in who the GM is.



Had Allen had his way, the Reds would have had Wayne Krevitzski (sp) from the Twins...

Aronchis
09-21-2005, 07:31 PM
It isn't business as usual, but business still up in the air. Chip theorized that the sale would take some time to complete and I think this is a example. O'brien is lame duck and won't be rehired. Move on.

I had two options
1)Lindner takes majority and hires Krivisky per Allen
2)Lindner sells operations shairs, and O'brien finishes his "caretaker" role next year

Lindner almost certainly will sell at some point next year now with this news.

The worst thing that may happen is that DanO has a freak year and the new owners rehire him :devil:

NC Reds
09-21-2005, 07:41 PM
I'm not thrilled, but I can live with DanO's return. He actually showed some decent reasoning late in the season (rejecting bad trades). If the FO commits to signing Dunn, Lopez, Larue (some will disagree) and Kearns long term, that would be even better. Let the new owner pick the new GM.

What I cannot stomach is the mentality that DanO has done a good job. Signing Milton and trading for Ortiz condemned us to our bad start (not to mention re-signing an injured Wilson). His best moves were the ones he did not make. Put him on a very short leash and tell him he has a year to show significant progress. If he can unload Milton's contract, that would be a nice start for 2006.

cincyinco
09-21-2005, 08:02 PM
What I find hilarious is that you all thought there would be changes going into next year! C'mon guys.. why does any of this come as any kind of shock?

flyer85
09-21-2005, 08:04 PM
I would expect Ortiz and Milton back while Dunn is traded.

M2
09-21-2005, 08:06 PM
What I find hilarious is that you all thought there would be changes going into next year! C'mon guys.. why does any of this come as any kind of shock?

Hardly a shock, but ipecac doesn't taste good every time you sip it even if you know it's most likely coming.

Raisor
09-21-2005, 08:10 PM
Looks like I picked a bad year to give up drinking.

Heath
09-21-2005, 08:10 PM
Worst. Ran. Organization. In. Sports.

Wrong - these people take the cake.

http://www.allsports.com/store/images/items/016/016_747883702613.jpg

Second place goes to.....

http://logotypes.designer.am/t/tampa_bay_devil_rays1.png

I could go on - we just have a little more passion about it.

I think this is just saying that DanO has one year left - and we aren't going to waste money by paying him NOT to run the club. Narron will be back and everyone else as potential to be back except one outfielder/1b.

I also think that this puts Ortiz in a Reds uni for 2006.
I also think that this means no realistic major FA signing for 2006.
I also think Pena's gone.
I also think that one more year of pitching to contact is going to drive me up a wall..... :bang: :bang:

Interesting how people judge this move, most notably season ticket holders, and suite owners.

Hopefully the next round of owners will be able to stay away from the baseball side of the baseball club and find someone able to run it .... not some number cruncher.

flyer85
09-21-2005, 08:12 PM
Looks like I picked a bad year to give up drinking.I feel for you McCroskey.

IslandRed
09-21-2005, 08:12 PM
Disappointing, but I wasn't expecting a move to be made with the sale negotiations ongoing. I also expect the do-nothing-major attitude from the last trade deadline to continue over the winter. Whether that's good or bad, in light of O'Brien continuing, is up for debate.

Heath
09-21-2005, 08:14 PM
Looks like I picked a bad year to give up drinking.

http://www.sergioleone.net/dm-10.jpg

Matt700wlw
09-21-2005, 08:15 PM
I love that movie! :lol:

CTA513
09-21-2005, 08:21 PM
:laugh: @ O'Brien being back.

pedro
09-21-2005, 08:28 PM
http://www.paracompusa.com/SmartScience/MindGames/images/cops.gif

KronoRed
09-21-2005, 08:44 PM
I love that movie! :lol:

Don't call me Shirley

RFS62
09-21-2005, 08:47 PM
http://images.art.com/images/PRODUCTS/large/10042000/10042164.jpg

4256 Hits
09-21-2005, 08:55 PM
I honestly feel like I am going to :barf:

This means you can add 2 more years until the Reds make the play-off. IMO every year of DanO sets the Reds back 2 years so it will be at least 2010 until the Reds make the play-offs. :angry: :angry:

The Reds have now joined the elite group of really bad teams for a long time period; that group includes the Royals, Pirates, Brewers, Tigers and Devil Rays. :help:

Unassisted
09-21-2005, 09:06 PM
Remember how the September '04 renewal of Dave Miley's contract worked out?

Glimmer of hope and fearless prediction...
September '05 vote of confidence = June '06 dismissal

KronoRed
09-21-2005, 09:09 PM
Glimmer of hope and fearless prediction...
September '05 vote of confidence = June '06 dismissal

Yep, I'm thinking all star break this time around.

RedsBaron
09-21-2005, 09:15 PM
:bang: :angry: :cry: :help: :rolleyes: :thumbdown :bash: :explode: :scared: :pray: :censored: :drink: :rant: :runawaycr :runaway: :rant2: :barf: :yikes: :all_cohol :eek: :(

Team Clark
09-21-2005, 09:16 PM
DANG!!! I had my resume all ready too!

REDREAD
09-21-2005, 10:14 PM
So much for the theory that Allen wasn't 100% behind DanO, and that he prefered Krivisty :lol: I always found that story hard to swallow. DanO has made the team worse in the last two years, but Allen thinks that's a "good job".

I'm telling you, Allen needs to be fired more than anyone. As long as he's COO, the incompetence will not stop.

pedro
09-21-2005, 10:17 PM
well isn't that special?

http://images.unseelie.unseelie.us/church_lady.jpg

pedro
09-21-2005, 10:23 PM
Not surprising really. If the Reds are indeed for sale an the GM only has one year left on his contract it makes sense that they'd just let it slide and let the next regime deal with it. Not that it makes me happy but.....

westofyou
09-21-2005, 10:30 PM
Not surprising really. If the Reds are indeed for sale an the GM only has one year left on his contract it makes sense that they'd just let it slide and let the next regime deal with it.

Dan Evans comes to mind.

Chip R
09-21-2005, 10:41 PM
I'm sure this is just a coincidence but the Reds lost their 81st game this year thus assuring them of a non-winning season for the 5th year in a row.

WMR
09-21-2005, 11:35 PM
Man it really sucks to be a Reds fan.

Up here in Cleveland, everybody is so excited about the Indians...

I root for the Indians in the AL, but my enjoyment of them doesn't come close to my passion for the Reds... As exciting as it is to watch them compete for the play-offs, I imagine how cool it'd be for the Reds to be fighting for a play-off spot...

LOL, people wonder why folks don't care about the Reds... if you weren't a passionate fan, why the heck *would* you care? They've been so sorry for so long.

I tell someone I'm a Reds fan and they're like, "Ugh, why?"

I don't have a rational explanation.

CincyReds2003
09-21-2005, 11:36 PM
Looks like the Bengals just had to walk down the street to pass the torch to the Reds, for the worst organization in sports. Thank god football season has started, so it can make us forget about the Reds.

wheels
09-21-2005, 11:59 PM
Oh my dear Lord, please tell me this isn't happening.

Please, someone tell me my girlfriend spiked my drinks tonight.

All seven rum and grapefruit juices.


Or mmmmaybe the liquer store got a bad shipment of Sailor Jerry's.

Anything, folks!

I'm dying heeeere.

I really, really don't like Dan O'Brien.

wheels
09-22-2005, 12:03 AM
Looks like the Bengals just had to walk down the street to pass the torch to the Reds, for the worst organization in sports. Thank god football season has started, so it can make us forget about the Reds.

As happy as I am for the Bengals, Football's just a happy little distraction.

Nothing can take away the pain that I'm feeling right now.

I'm teetering on the ledge here, people. That means I'm gonna hafta get all articulate and stuff now.

Geesh.

I picked the wrong night to drink, 'cause now I need more and I work twelve hours tomorrow.

Redszone needs some kinda helpline or something. I'm sure Zombie's still awake.

Anyone have his phone number?

CincyReds2003
09-22-2005, 12:15 AM
As happy as I am for the Bengals, Football's just a happy little distraction.

Nothing can take away the pain that I'm feeling right now.

I'm teetering on the ledge here, people. That means I'm gonna hafta get all articulate and stuff now.

Geesh.

I picked the wrong night to drink, 'cause now I need more and I work twelve hours tomorrow.

Redszone needs some kinda helpline or something. I'm sure Zombie's still awake.

Anyone have his phone number?

I can truly understand what you're feeling right now. I went through the same thing after the 1990 season, when the Bengals began their decade dominance of the AFC Cellar. I don't know how much the fans can do to send a message to this organization, that this is completely unacceptable. If they stopped going to the games, it would probably give John Allen an excuse to trade everyone, then load the team with a bunch of scabs. I guess our only hope is for a group (THAT WANTS TO WIN!) to come in, buy the shares that are being sold, then purchase Lindner's shares, and hopefully bring their own management in. At least one can only hope.

M2
09-22-2005, 12:27 AM
Dan Evans comes to mind.

Hopefully it follows that model. Evans never made it to his third season because the new Dodgers ownership hit the ground running.

The worry would be that Lindner's of a mind to drag this out. If so you've got a losing team in limbo and saddled with an overmatched GM. That could make 2006 an excruciating season.

WMR
09-22-2005, 12:52 AM
That could make 2006 an excruciating season.

http://www.lifeisbadstore.com/misery-text.gif

MartyAndSteve@RedsOnRadio.com

Caveat Emperor
09-22-2005, 01:09 AM
As an aside, there's probably a fascinating story behind this supposed sale, unfortunately the Cincinnati media lacks the energy and ability to get it.

The news on the Reds sale front, right now, is one of "Hurry up and wait."

The progress is impeded due to the fact that the Washington franchise is up for sale, and the thinking is that a lot of the "losers" in the D.C. bidding war might be interested in owning the Reds as a fallback plan.

It's no secret that Linder would be willing to sell along with the Limiteds to someone who wanted full ownershiip, so it behooves him to wait on any sales until the maximum number of potential buyers is out there to potentially push the price higher.

Ron Madden
09-22-2005, 03:25 AM
The only hope we have as Reds Fans is that someone with enough sense to hire competent baseball minds to run the club, steps up to buy Lindner out.

Aronchis
09-22-2005, 04:39 AM
The only hope we have as Reds Fans is that someone with enough sense to hire competent baseball minds to run the club, steps up to buy Lindner out.

and then they rehire DanO after a fluke 93 win season. FCB style

MrCinatit
09-22-2005, 07:14 AM
it's the apocalypse, i tells ya!
The End Is Near!

seriously...i unfortunately expected nothing else but this. i also expect to Reds to pick up Narron's contract after "considering other candidates", and sign at least one free agent pitcher who had potential 10 years ago, but hasn't yet panned out.

Roy Tucker
09-22-2005, 07:56 AM
I'm sure this is just a coincidence but the Reds lost their 81st game this year thus assuring them of a non-winning season for the 5th year in a row.
That's the longest losing streak since the Reds went from 1945-55 without a winning season.

I can understand staying with DanO (understand , not agree). But I don't get how going 146-167 can be considered a "good job".

I think it goes back to what was discussed in the "winning attitude" thread. If the Reds think DanO has done a good job, then this club does not truly care about winning. They care more about staying profitable and then maybe patching things up a bit.

TeamCasey
09-22-2005, 08:12 AM
I've lost faith until they sell the team.

RFS62
09-22-2005, 08:15 AM
That's the longest losing streak since the Reds went from 1945-55 without a winning season.

I can understand staying with DanO (understand , not agree). But I don't get how going 146-167 can be considered a "good job".

I think it goes back to what was discussed in the "winning attitude" thread. If the Reds think DanO has done a good job, then this club does not truly care about winning. They care more about staying profitable and then maybe patching things up a bit.


Sadly, I believe this is exactly right. Lindner is a businessman. For him, winning means not losing money.

I think he believes he is winning, because he's not spending the limited's money on such risky business as chasing a championship.

There's no burning desire to win here. None.

We pay lip service and say all the appropriate Crash Davis sound bites in the media, but that's all it is... spin.

GAC
09-22-2005, 08:32 AM
I've been on the fence with DanO since he is just finishing up his 2nd year as GM. I believe you have to give a new GM some sort of grace period to see what he is gonna do. And he didn't inherit an organization that has much talent from top to bottom. Granted - he didn't impress me in the way he spent that 20 Mil in the off-season last year.

The '06 season will be telling for me on DanO, and as to which side of the fence I'll end up on.

lollipopcurve
09-22-2005, 08:44 AM
The worry would be that Lindner's of a mind to drag this out. If so you've got a losing team in limbo and saddled with an overmatched GM. That could make 2006 an excruciating season.

This is my concern too. This offseason is a critical one in terms of resolving the OF/1B glut and getting some position players signed to multiyear deals. If they waddle along twiddling their thumbs, their ability to leverage assets (and get major league -- or near major league -- return on trades) will decline pretty sharply.

But here's my question -- let's assume best-case scenario: they sign Dunn to a multiyear deal. Would you then allow O'Brien to seek the best trade he can get for Kearns/Pena/Griffey/Casey? He may not be the most astute trader out there, but would waiting a year (and enduring more 4-outfielder unease) be wise?

Roy Tucker
09-22-2005, 09:05 AM
This is my concern too. This offseason is a critical one in terms of resolving the OF/1B glut and getting some position players signed to multiyear deals. If they waddle along twiddling their thumbs, their ability to leverage assets (and get major league -- or near major league -- return on trades) will decline pretty sharply.

But here's my question -- let's assume best-case scenario: they sign Dunn to a multiyear deal. Would you then allow O'Brien to seek the best trade he can get for Kearns/Pena/Griffey/Casey? He may not be the most astute trader out there, but would waiting a year (and enduring more 4-outfielder unease) be wise?
Interesting question. If DanO is the GM, then he's the guy to make the moves, whatever they are. If you don't let him, then why is he GM in the first place?

This whole ownership question needs to be resolved in the off-season. It appears that some moves were not made because of the uncertainty in who the heck is going to own the Reds in 2006. That has logic to it and I'm OK with that.

However, I'm not OK with going through the off-season with the ownership thing hanging in the air *and* DanO not allowed to move a player of any magnitude. It just dooms us to a 2006 season that is a v2.0 of 2005. It doesn't get them any closer to being a contender and probably further away.

I'd really like the Reds to start making some bold, firm, and smart moves to reshape this team. It has a lot of good parts, but the team as a whole is ill-conceived and lop-sided.

M2
09-22-2005, 10:17 AM
This is my concern too. This offseason is a critical one in terms of resolving the OF/1B glut and getting some position players signed to multiyear deals. If they waddle along twiddling their thumbs, their ability to leverage assets (and get major league -- or near major league -- return on trades) will decline pretty sharply.

But here's my question -- let's assume best-case scenario: they sign Dunn to a multiyear deal. Would you then allow O'Brien to seek the best trade he can get for Kearns/Pena/Griffey/Casey? He may not be the most astute trader out there, but would waiting a year (and enduring more 4-outfielder unease) be wise?

What Roy said for the most part.

It's why I think the only two sane options are to sell quickly or to bring in a new GM who understands this is a resume-building experience.

My real worry with DanO is that he'll hit the market with a stack of offensive talent in hand and won't be able to negotiate a meaningful deal for any of it. Not being able to get anything for something has been his M.O.

M2
09-22-2005, 10:35 AM
The news on the Reds sale front, right now, is one of "Hurry up and wait."

The progress is impeded due to the fact that the Washington franchise is up for sale, and the thinking is that a lot of the "losers" in the D.C. bidding war might be interested in owning the Reds as a fallback plan.

It's no secret that Linder would be willing to sell along with the Limiteds to someone who wanted full ownershiip, so it behooves him to wait on any sales until the maximum number of potential buyers is out there to potentially push the price higher.

It's the circumstances of "hurry up and wait" that make for the great story. You've got Lindner's curious mix of ineptitude, obliviousness, ego and xenophobia. You've probably got Reds front office personnel trying to throw an anchor around the sale or attempting to convince Lindner that he needs to stick around in order to save their skins. You've probably got some viable ownership groups furious about being put on hold. That one in particular makes for a great story because you've got an inept owner barring the door to keep a possible white knight from coming in. You've got a GM empowered to do nothing being kept around to watch this team rot on the vine.

Man, put this in a city with some media outlets that know what they're doing and it would be splashed over the front pages and broadcast as the lead story on a nearly daily basis. People with money behaving badly, it's an industry staple.

smith288
09-22-2005, 11:55 AM
I have no words. Those look to be words. :D

lollipopcurve
09-22-2005, 11:56 AM
People with money behaving badly, it's an industry staple.

Yep -- that's why this is going nowhere fast. Think about it -- you've got the Reds in line behin d the sale of the forever-for-sale foster franchise of the Nationals/Expos.....

Get comfortable folks. We may be here awhile.

savafan
09-22-2005, 11:59 AM
Well, DanO got this job based on his money saving ideas. Apparently, Milton and Ortiz aside, the Reds have been successful in saving money under DanO's watch. That seems to be the basis for this decision.

I'd love to see this franchise open its books and take a look at the financial picture behind the Reds.

deltachi8
09-22-2005, 12:23 PM
The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

Im no fan of many of Dan O'Brien's moves....ERIC MILTON (cough)...however, the team is for sale and until its sold nothing of consequence will happen.

Look for nearly the same team with the same manager next year.

MartyFan
09-22-2005, 12:24 PM
Hello again!

been away for a bit but when I saw this article, I knew I would have to post.

DanO HAS done a good job...he HAS improved our ML system...his signing for Milton, Trade for Ortiz...have been a huge disapointment to say the least.

We are honestly 2 or 3 years away from seeing his impact on this team with the players brought up through our system who have been drafted and signed under his watch.

Considering what he had when he signed on in the ML system he has done a good job...his FA signings...have been terrible.

dsmith421
09-22-2005, 01:01 PM
DanO HAS done a good job...he HAS improved our ML system...his signing for Milton, Trade for Ortiz...have been a huge disapointment to say the least.

We are honestly 2 or 3 years away from seeing his impact on this team ... Considering what he had when he signed on in the ML system he has done a good job...his FA signings...have been terrible.

I really don't understand this.

1. The Major League team has stunk for five years. O'Brien has done nothing to halt that trend.

2. O'Brien has done a terrible job with free agent signings, and none of the players he's acquired in trade have had a positive impact on the Reds.

3. But they, and players O'Brien has drafted, MIGHT (and that is the key word...MIGHT) help the major league club in two or three years, ergo

4. O'Brien should keep his job for the next 2-3 years, just in case those prospects work out.

Maybe you're okay with watching this crap for the next three seasons, but I'm not.

I mean seriously, what are the odds that Homer Bailey or Travis Wood ever throws a pitch in the major leagues? Ever wins a game? Ever develops into a ML-average starting pitcher? Not as good as you think. So let's not get too excited about low-minor league prospects at the expense of the rancid stink of the major league club.

M2
09-22-2005, 01:02 PM
DanO HAS done a good job...he HAS improved our ML system

I'll refer you to the Reds minor league performance this season (feel free to review both team and individual performances) as evidence that very little has gone well down on the farm for this organization. It still lacks advanced pitching prospects. The better arms at lower levels have offered up poor to spotty performance. Now that Edwin Encarnacion and Chris Denorfia have graduated to the majors (both players DanO inherited) you may have to go down to recently drafted Jay Bruce to find an impact hitter in the system (Joey Votto could change that if he rebounds next season).

The bats from DanO and Terry Reynolds' first draft disintegrated while the arms struggled. The initial results from this year's draft are much more encouraging, but it's hard to get overly geeked about two months worth of games. The only young player DanO's acquired via trade who's done anything particularly well in the minors is Javon Moran, and he's a speedy, impatient slap hitter who lacks power and doesn't have all that great an arm.

Capitalize the word "has" all you want, but a fair assessment of DanO's minor league efforts to date would be that he's conducted two drafts (featuring one class that's struggled and a more recent that's thrived), he's added precious little meaningful talent through other avenues and he wasn't able to keep the organization's two best advanced arms (Richie Gardner and Thomas Pauly) any healthier than the previous regime. Every organization gets to hold a draft every season and most people assume the most recent drafts are always chock full of budding superstars. Yet the actual evidence we have is that the Reds haven't been an exceptional or even all that notable scouting and development system since DanO arrived.

M2
09-22-2005, 01:09 PM
Yep -- that's why this is going nowhere fast. Think about it -- you've got the Reds in line behin d the sale of the forever-for-sale foster franchise of the Nationals/Expos.....

Get comfortable folks. We may be here awhile.

It's true, we may.

What amazes me is that so many, particularly those in the media, are comfortable with it. Imagine if this were going with the basbeball franchise in our neck of the woods?

dsmith421
09-22-2005, 01:12 PM
It's true, we may.

What amazes me is that so many, particularly those in the media, are comfortable with it. Imagine if this were going with the basbeball franchise in our neck of the woods?

The difference is that I bet the Globe is allowed to criticize Boston ownership. There's credible rumors that ain't so in River City.

Falls City Beer
09-22-2005, 01:13 PM
It's true, we may.

What amazes me is that so many, particularly those in the media, are comfortable with it. Imagine if this were going with the basbeball franchise in our neck of the woods?

I think we're seeing in Cincinnati the continued effects of uncritical attitudes vis. the home team's competitiveness.

You see it in every other walk of life, the "well, I guess it's good enough" response.

As the great Rik Mayall says, "Tiny things please tiny minds."

lollipopcurve
09-22-2005, 01:15 PM
The way I see it, the GM's most important job in terms of talent acquisition is via trades and free agent signings. The draft is the province of the scouting director and the scouts, so I wouldn't give too much credit or discredit to O'Brien for the 04 and 05 drafts. On the trade and free agent fronts, where he is the prime mover, he hasn't done well. And this offseason is likely to be a watershed time for establishing whether this team moves forward with a solid core of position players (building on one of the best offenses in the game shouldn't be that tough), or whether they have to tear it all down cuz they can't sign people. Granted, ownership will play a key role, but there's no doubt in my mind O'Brien is going to be given the task of exchanging some offense for pitching. We could see this coming ever since he arrived, and now he's going to have to execute it. He's had long enough to assess, evaluate, ponder and review. It will be his career-defining move, I think, even more than the Milton signing.

M2
09-22-2005, 01:20 PM
The way I see it, the GM's most important job in terms of talent acquisition is via trades and free agent signings. The draft is the province of the scouting director and the scouts, so I wouldn't give too much credit or discredit to O'Brien for the 04 and 05 drafts. On the trade and free agent fronts, where he is the prime mover, he hasn't done well. And this offseason is likely to be a watershed time for establishing whether this team moves forward with a solid core of position players (building on one of the best offenses in the game shouldn't be that tough), or whether they have to tear it all down cuz they can't sign people. Granted, ownership will play a key role, but there's no doubt in my mind O'Brien is going to be given the task of exchanging some offense for pitching. We could see this coming ever since he arrived, and now he's going to have to execute it. He's had long enough to assess, evaluate, ponder and review. It will be his career-defining move, I think, even more than the Milton signing.

I couldn't agree more. DanO wasn't hired to be the scouting director and this a golden (and probably final) opportunity to show that he can work with the talent at his disposal.

RedsManRick
09-22-2005, 01:42 PM
My concern with O'Brien is his apparent inability to pull the trigger on a big deal. Seems like he's so worried about not screwing up, that he's letting opportunities pass. You can't tell me that the Twins weren't interested in Aurilia at the deadline.

As people discussed the Indians earlier, you have to remember that they are where they are because they moved Colon and Finley and let Thome walk. You have to make the big moves in conjunction with each other. Our problem seems to be that management is afriad to buy in completely at any one time. If you look at the good moves over the past decade, they were trades that took place when we traded good talent who was more valuable to somebody else than to us. However, they were mostly opportunistic -- not part of a real overarching plan; Smiley for Graves(Jul 97), Burba for Casey(Mar 98), Pokey for White and Hudson (Dec 01), Dessens for Lopez(Dec '02). The one time we had a firesale, it netted us our two best starters and some role players at the expensive of people we've easily replaced.

You need to sign the irreplaceable people on your team, and recycle everybody else to maximize talent per dollar spent. Nickle and diming our payroll to death with non-impact guys like an Aaron Boone, Jason LaRue, Danny Graves, and (gasp) Sean Casey is the reason we are where we're at. I give Obie major props for the Randa move, but this offseason will indicate whether or not he is building a team, or simply managing a payroll.

That said, while I'm not exaclty in the trade Dunn camp, the Blue Jays have money to spend, need power, and have a moneyball GM. IF we can't sign Dunner long term, I think a trade with the Jays makes a ton of sense. We could get one of their young 2B (Hudson), a solid young pitcher (Bush/Chacin), and probably another very good prospect. This would also give us the money going in to next season to tie up one of the other young guys, such as Lopez, Harang, or Kearns to long term sub-market deal. Again, not saying we SHOULD trade Dunn -- but if we can't sign him long term, this is the offseason to get the most value for him.

Jr's Boy
09-22-2005, 02:31 PM
[QUOTE=KittyDuran]http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050921/SPT04/309210019

Wednesday, September 21, 2005
O'Brien to return
Allen: 'He's done a good job'
Yes, throwing every tight dollar that this team needs on crappy SP.
Dan's done everything we’ve asked of him,” Allen said. “He’s done a good job.”

Yes the Milton signing will go down in Reds lore as a great deal.Give me a break Allen you YES man.

Ranjo17
09-22-2005, 02:31 PM
Business as usual for the Reds.

wheels
09-22-2005, 03:24 PM
I'm still pretty upset about this whole thing.

fs43340
09-22-2005, 04:24 PM
There's no sense talking about the Reds until they have new management and owners.

Until then, I say WHO DEY! That's a organization that finallly got it. The Reds are a disagrace. Thank God for the Bengals!

fs43340
09-22-2005, 04:39 PM
Hello again!

been away for a bit but when I saw this article, I knew I would have to post.

DanO HAS done a good job...he HAS improved our ML system... WHAT!

Matt700wlw
09-22-2005, 04:41 PM
There's no sense talking about the Reds until they have new management and owners.

Until then, I say WHO DEY! That's a organization that finallly got it. The Reds are a disagrace. Thank God for the Bengals!

Does Marvin Lewis know baseball?

harangatang
09-22-2005, 04:54 PM
DanO HAS done a good job...he HAS improved our ML system

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40039

I think O'Brien is doing a good job overall though it it not being seen at the major league level yet. Having 6 of the 30 top prospects, including 1 and 2, at the Pioneer League is a good start and I think this is the start of many good things to come from the farm system that O'Brien is building.

wheels
09-22-2005, 05:01 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40039

I think O'Brien is doing a good job overall though it it not being seen at the major league level yet. Having 6 of the 30 top prospects, including 1 and 2, at the Pioneer League is a good start and I think this is the start of many good things to come from the farm system that O'Brien is building.

It's the Pioneer League, though.

Alot of bad can happen between now and when they're of age.

I'm sorry, but six prospects in the low minors don't trump the horrific job he's done with the Major League team.

Nothing can absolve Dan O'Brien of his sins this past offseason.

Horrible, blood poring out of every orifice types of moves.

M2
09-22-2005, 05:09 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40039

I think O'Brien is doing a good job overall though it it not being seen at the major league level yet. Having 6 of the 30 top prospects, including 1 and 2, at the Pioneer League is a good start and I think this is the start of many good things to come from the farm system that O'Brien is building.

If the best you've got to show after two years on the job, and this is the best and nearly only thing DanO's got to show, is some interesting kids in rookie ball, then you are NOT doing a good job overall. In fact, you are doing a fairly miserable job.

The performance to date of the 2005 draft comes out a wash when measured against the performance of the 2004 draft class. And then you've got DanO's marked inability to make significant additions at the levels about that, including the majors where, as wheels said, he's been been baseball ebola.

wheels
09-22-2005, 05:14 PM
he's been been baseball ebola.

Yup.

Ebola.

That's why you get paid for what you write.

harangatang
09-22-2005, 05:31 PM
If the best you've got to show after two years on the job, and this is the best and nearly only thing DanO's got to show, is some interesting kids in rookie ball, then you are NOT doing a good job overall

Well it's better then nothing at all, you have to start somewhere. The farm system is so depleted from top to bottom and you have to start building from the ground up. When is the last time the you heard of a remotely successful class of prospects, something like I believe, 1998, 7 YEARS AGO. I think it should be reassuring to know that there is a chance that this the organization is starting to head in the correct direction. I do believe it will be a couple years but the Reds will be straightened out and return to proseperity under...O'Brien.

Phhhl
09-22-2005, 05:35 PM
How can Allen speak for what the (potential) new owners might want to do? There is still a chance we can rid ourselves of this clown.

Matt700wlw
09-22-2005, 05:35 PM
How can Allen speak for what the (potential) new owners might want to do? There is still a chance we can rid ourselves of this clown.

Don't count on it.

SteelSD
09-22-2005, 05:45 PM
Well it's better then nothing at all, you have to start somewhere.

I'll tell ya' what...

Find a homeless person who has nothing to eat, bring them back to your place, sit them down at your table, and- on your best china- serve them a warm turd smothered in chocolate sauce.

Mmmnnn...chocolate turd casserole.

Better than nothing at all?

ochre
09-22-2005, 05:47 PM
Well it's better then nothing at all, you have to start somewhere. The farm system is so depleted from top to bottom and you have to start building from the ground up. When is the last time the you heard of a remotely successful class of prospects, something like I believe, 1998, 7 YEARS AGO. I think it should be reassuring to know that there is a chance that this the organization is starting to head in the correct direction. I do believe it will be a couple years but the Reds will be straightened out and return to proseperity under...O'Brien.
Early returns on the Ryan Wagner draft class were more promising than this years. Look where we are now.

harangatang
09-22-2005, 06:01 PM
Find a homeless person who has nothing to eat, bring them back to your place, sit them down at your table, and- on your best china- serve them a warm turd smothered in chocolate sauce.

I think you have it wrong. Let's say you want to help a homeless person. At first you invite him in for a warm meal with your best china and silver. You get another paycheck and you decide you have enough money to buy some new clothes for this person. You see that after 6 months you have helped this person and you have enough money to pay rent on an apartment for a month as he looks for a job. When this person finds a job and supports himself then your work has been successful. Whether the Reds farm system will get past the first warm meal has yet to be seen but I think we should wait and see if O'Brien is successful.

harangatang
09-22-2005, 06:09 PM
Early returns on the Ryan Wagner draft class were more promising than this years. Look where we are now.

Yes, but that draft was not conducted by O'Brien, that was by Bowden

ochre
09-22-2005, 06:18 PM
Yes, but that draft was not conducted by O'Brien, that was by Bowden


When is the last time the you heard of a remotely successful class of prospects,
yep. The vaunted tandem system didn't help Pauly any and Wagner blew up at the major league level. Or, should development only refer to players that O'Brien brought in?

Take a look at the position players that have been drafted. Rosales and Bruce are the only ones that are even close to being prospects. They have drafted, largely, no hit college fielders each year. What's the deal with that? Wood looks dominant against kids that have probably never seen left handers break the low 80s (high school kids). Lets wait to see how he looks by the time he's in low A/AA.

wheels
09-22-2005, 06:21 PM
I think you have it wrong. Let's say you want to help a homeless person. At first you invite him in for a warm meal with your best china and silver. You get another paycheck and you decide you have enough money to buy some new clothes for this person. You see that after 6 months you have helped this person and you have enough money to pay rent on an apartment for a month as he looks for a job. When this person finds a job and supports himself then your work has been successful. Whether the Reds farm system will get past the first warm meal has yet to be seen but I think we should wait and see if O'Brien is successful.

You're focusing on the minors, I understand that, and although I disagree with your claims of O'Brien's success, I'd like to ask you about DanO's main task: The Major League club.

Did you like the Cory Lidle signing?

Did you like the Eric Milton signing?

How about signing Paul Wilson even though he had full knowledge of his shoulder injury?

Did you agree with DanO not trading Wilson at the deadline in '04?

How about not moving Casey?

If you think that more than one of these moves had potentially crippling ramifications, six woulda coulda shouldas in rookie ball far from make up for it.

ochre
09-22-2005, 06:25 PM
You're focusing on the minors, I understand that, and although I disagree with your claims of O'Brien's success, I'd like to ask you about DanO's main task: The Major League club.

Did you like the Cory Lidle signing?

Did you like the Eric Milton signing?

How about signing Paul Wilson even though he had full knowledge of his shoulder injury?

Did you agree with DanO not trading Wilson at the deadline in '04?

How about not moving Casey?

If you think that more than one of these moves had potentially crippling ramifications, six woulda coulda shouldas in rookie ball far from make up for it.
You need to save that list for use similar to Raisor's: "Can we agree that home run is better than a triple, etc." spiel.

westofyou
09-22-2005, 06:25 PM
What good is farming if you don't know what to do when the crop is ready to harvest.

wheels
09-22-2005, 06:28 PM
You need to save that list for use similar to Raisor's: "Can we agree that home run is better than a triple, etc." spiel.

It does sorta have the same kinda flow to it, doesn't it?

harangatang
09-22-2005, 06:32 PM
Or, should development only refer to players that O'Brien brought in?...

[QUOTE=ochre]Wood looks dominant against kids that have probably never seen left handers break the low 80s (high school kids). Lets wait to see how [Travis Wood] looks by the time he's in low A/AA.

Well this thread is referring to O'Brien and not the mistakes of the past that Bowden has made. Whether Pauly was negatively affected by the minor league system or the inability of Bowden's assessments of players, your guess is as good as mine.

With Travis Wood, let's see if O'Brien has the ability to scout and develop young pitchers. If he does not then he needs to go but I think it is only fair to give him a chance.

wheels
09-22-2005, 06:38 PM
[QUOTE=ochre]Or, should development only refer to players that O'Brien brought in?...



Well this thread is referring to O'Brien and not the mistakes of the past that Bowden has made. Whether Pauly was negatively affected by the minor league system or the inability of Bowden's assessments of players, your guess is as good as mine.

With Travis Wood, let's see if O'Brien has the ability to scout and develop young pitchers. If he does not then he needs to go but I think it is only fair to give him a chance.

Well at the same time we're waiting around trying to figure out if he'll wreck the minors, he's taking a nine pound hammer to the major league club.

The known quantity tells me he needs to go, regardless of what he could potentially do for the minors, and he's not given me an inkling of hope in that regard.

harangatang
09-22-2005, 06:45 PM
Well at the same time we're waiting around trying to figure out if he'll wreck the minors, he's taking a nine pound hammer to the major league club.

The minors have been wrecked for a long time so in that regard I really don't think that many could argue that they could get worse. I think the major league club has areas that are to be desired, but I think that has more to do with Lindner than O'Brien. If O'Brien can build the minors up than we don't have to worry as much about Lindner's decisions.

Reds4Life
09-22-2005, 06:50 PM
I think the major league club has areas that are to be desired, but I think that has more to do with Lindner than O'Brien.

I'm not a big Lindner fan, but he did give O'Brien cash to play with in the offseason and he wasted $25 million on Eric Milton.

M2
09-22-2005, 06:52 PM
Well it's better then nothing at all, you have to start somewhere. The farm system is so depleted from top to bottom and you have to start building from the ground up. When is the last time the you heard of a remotely successful class of prospects, something like I believe, 1998, 7 YEARS AGO. I think it should be reassuring to know that there is a chance that this the organization is starting to head in the correct direction. I do believe it will be a couple years but the Reds will be straightened out and return to proseperity under...O'Brien.

There isn't any more overall talent in the system than when DanO inherited it.

And if the only thing DanO was brought into town to do was conduct some drafts and hire scouts then he was given the wrong job. In fact, as lollipop noted earlier in this thread, that's not even DanO's current job. Terry Reynolds does that.

The last time the Reds had a successful class of prospects debut right after the draft was 2003 when a bunch of guys debuted well in Dayton and the rest took the Pioneer League championship ... and the the team's top overall pick finished the season in the majors.

The 2000 draft of David Espinosa, Dustin Moseley, Dane Sardinha, Ryan Snare and David Gil also came in well-regarded and playing well (except Sardinha who's never played well).

If you think the Reds haven't had a draft class debut well since 1998, you simply haven't been paying enough attention. I'll add that using a good debut for a draft class (while ignoring the results of the previous draft class) is a lousy measure of measure of a GM, especially one who's been so thoroughly deficient at working the trade and free agent markets.

M2
09-22-2005, 07:00 PM
Well this thread is referring to O'Brien and not the mistakes of the past that Bowden has made. Whether Pauly was negatively affected by the minor league system or the inability of Bowden's assessments of players, your guess is as good as mine.

With Travis Wood, let's see if O'Brien has the ability to scout and develop young pitchers. If he does not then he needs to go but I think it is only fair to give him a chance.

He was referring to O'Brien, not Bowden. DanO inherited two very talented, advanced arms in Pauly and Gardner who threw well until injuries got them. Supposedly DanO was instituting a system to guard against that. It didn't work. Likewise, everytime the Reds apply pitch-to-contact to Wagner, his velocity drops and his slider loses all its bite.

Aronchis
09-22-2005, 07:22 PM
He was referring to O'Brien, not Bowden. DanO inherited two very talented, advanced arms in Pauly and Gardner who threw well until injuries got them. Supposedly DanO was instituting a system to guard against that. It didn't work. Likewise, everytime the Reds apply pitch-to-contact to Wagner, his velocity drops and his slider loses all its bite.

Really? Pauly's arm may be talented, but he was having labrum problems even BEFORE he was drafted among his suspicious mechanics. It just got to a point, he needed surgury and I suspect he should be about 100%. As for Gardner, crap happens, I have never seen him pitch either, so I can't tell you if he had a mechanical flaw. Especially with Bowden draft picks, injuries were common. Will O'brien's however?

As far as talent, the system has alot of lower level pitching and college bats. That means next year will tell us alot if these lower level pitchers succeed and what college bats bloom(like Denorfia).

Your arguement that DanO hasn't provided much more talent is going to be made or breaked this year IMO and considering what Bowden left, it isn't that hard to improve the talent.

ochre
09-22-2005, 07:31 PM
I've never read that Pauly had shoulder problems when drafted. He pitched well last season and broke down at the beginning of this season. The only rub on him that I remember was that he was a closer in college, not a starter.

M2
09-22-2005, 07:59 PM
As far as talent, the system has alot of lower level pitching and college bats. That means next year will tell us alot if these lower level pitchers succeed and what college bats bloom(like Denorfia).

Your arguement that DanO hasn't provided much more talent is going to be made or breaked this year IMO and considering what Bowden left, it isn't that hard to improve the talent.

Not hard to do and yet two years in DanO's been unable to do it (largely because of the dog put on the by the 2004 draft class).

You seem unwilling to notice the 2004 college bats, which laid a humongous turd last year and this year. As ochre pointed out, Rosales is the only college bat from 2005 who did anything exceptional. Roberts was solid, but for the PL hardly noteworthy. In general, college bats and HS arms is a lousy plan. Those are areas where you should make tactical forays, not strategic ones. Fortunately the Reds grabbed Bruce and some college arms in 2005.

My argument's already made. DanO needs the 2005 class to stay on track (and for some guys to step up from 2004) in order to replace what's graduated, gotten injured, fizzled from what he inherited.

SteelSD
09-22-2005, 08:27 PM
I think you have it wrong. Let's say you want to help a homeless person. At first you invite him in for a warm meal with your best china and silver. You get another paycheck and you decide you have enough money to buy some new clothes for this person. You see that after 6 months you have helped this person and you have enough money to pay rent on an apartment for a month as he looks for a job. When this person finds a job and supports himself then your work has been successful. Whether the Reds farm system will get past the first warm meal has yet to be seen but I think we should wait and see if O'Brien is successful.

Dan O'Brien's job is to put a winning team on the field. Period. The guy has had two offseasons in which to add quantifiable productive talent. He's done nothing but throw money away. He's had two drafts in which to find talent advanced enough to help out soon- because SOON is when the help was needed. He's got nothing but a guy or two in rookie ball to show for it. EVERY team has a guy or two in rookie ball every freakin' year from every draft. Dan O'Brien has had two years in which to aid in the development of prospects to advance them closer to the MLB club. He's got nothing to show for that either. Nothing.

See, here's the thing...when you do nothing eventually the talent you have at the MLB level leaves. That's called talent attrition. Even IF O'Brien and Co. had a great draft in 2005 (he didn't, but let's pretend) the talent he's drafted won't arrive in time to do anything but plug holes created by his inability to find productive MLB players and draft players advanced enough to contribute before then and his inability to turn a single rough stone into a diamond internally.

When you start hearing praise from people like O'Brien and Tim Naehring about a Miguel Perez, you're screwed.

Dan O'Brien's plan stunk from the moment of implementation but you'd like to "wait and see" if a plan that's destined to produce nothing will end up producing something. C'mon.

REDREAD
09-22-2005, 09:22 PM
With Travis Wood, let's see if O'Brien has the ability to scout and develop young pitchers. If he does not then he needs to go but I think it is only fair to give him a chance.

Well, if you're jazzed about this recent draft class, how about keeping Reynolds (who was responsible) and dumping DanO? I seem to recall DanO saying that the draft is entirely in Reynolds' hands.

Look at the young talent DanO has acquired in trade. It's nothing to get that excited about.

REDREAD
09-22-2005, 09:27 PM
See, here's the thing...when you do nothing eventually the talent you have at the MLB level leaves. That's called talent attrition.

yes, that's the main reason the Reds have descended from a contender in 1999 to a non factor. They have not been able to replace the talent lost from attrition/salary dumps. It gets worse every year.

MWM
09-22-2005, 10:11 PM
I'mnot sure how drafting a single pitcher with promise like Wood somehow means the guy has ability to scout and draft pitching. Give me two or three Woods in every draft class and then we'll talk about whether or not he has some kind of talent.

lollipopcurve
09-23-2005, 08:31 AM
Give me two or three Woods in every draft class and then we'll talk about whether or not he has some kind of talent.

Credit for drafting Wood goes to Reynolds and whoever's recommendation he trusted in making the selection.

As for 2-3 Woods in every draft class -- that's doesn't happen. You won't find anyone with that kind of track record.

Falls City Beer
09-23-2005, 09:48 AM
As for 2-3 Woods in every draft class -- that's doesn't happen. You won't find anyone with that kind of track record.

Depends on what your opinion of Wood is. To me, he's just another roll of the dice.

When's the last time Beane's not gotten two guys in a draft who have contributed at the major league level (if not for him then in trade)?

MWM
09-23-2005, 10:17 AM
The point is, anyone Joe Blow off the street could take a list of players from Bseball America into the draft draft based solely on that list without knowing anything else and sometimes a Travis Wood is going to show up in rookie ball. That doesn't show any kind of skill or talent to get a good prospect or two into rookie ball from a draft. And I like the Jay Bruce pick as well. But it's not like the two guys weren't fairly common sensical picks. I'm glad they made them, but making those two picks does not mean that the people in charge of the draft have some kind of talent for this stuff. Now if they consistently get several of these guys in every year, and they show up from even later rounds in the draft, then you can start to talk about a GM or scouting staff who knows what they're doing.

As for this just not happening, it's like FCB said, this is rookie ball and all Wood is right now is a guy who has looked great in rookie ball. This happens almost every year (although not to the degree that Wood looked this year). But i'd argue that if you don't have at least a handful of guys like this every year in rookie ball, you're doomed. I'm glad to have Bruce and Wood, but I don't see drafting them as evidence that the people in charge no what they're doing. It's not like the guy with the BA list is going to never get a good prospect. Consistency and numbers is the mark of someone who knows what they're doing. Not getting a one or two good looking rookie ball prospects in a draft.

lollipopcurve
09-23-2005, 10:18 AM
Depends on what your opinion of Wood is. To me, he's just another roll of the dice.

When's the last time Beane's not gotten two guys in a draft who have contributed at the major league level (if not for him then in trade)?

1. Wood is an 18 year old who has shown he can dominate college hitters (see his performance in the Pioneer League). Call that a roll of the dice if you want, but I'll take that kind of roll any time. And you won't find any scouting director or GM who brings in a couple of those every year.

2. As for what the Reds ultimately get out of the 04 and 05 drafts, whether by developing the players into major leaguers or by trading them, it's too soon to tell.

I'm not going to get into the college vs high school argument -- we've been over it too many times. The studies show nothing conclusive, so we're all just shooting biases at one another. You can cite Oakland, I can cite Atlanta. There ain't no one way to do it.

MWM
09-23-2005, 10:26 AM
And you won't find any scouting director or GM who brings in a couple of those every year.

How do you know that? Have done research to validate that claim or ar you just assuming?

ochre
09-23-2005, 10:29 AM
1. Wood is an 18 year old who has shown he can dominate college hitters (see his performance in the Pioneer League). Call that a roll of the dice if you want, but I'll take that kind of roll any time.
What kind of College hitters are in rookie leagues? I am not sure that they would typically be seen as advanced prospects. The fact that they are converting from aluminium to wood negates some of their experience advantage. Hard throwing leftys are a rarity even at the college level, so I am definitely in the "wait and see" camp in regards to Wood. I hope he pans out, but again, call me when he has a modicum of success at higher levels.

lollipopcurve
09-23-2005, 10:46 AM
anyone Joe Blow off the street could take a list of players from Bseball America into the draft draft based solely on that list without knowing anything else and sometimes a Travis Wood is going to show up in rookie ball

I agree that you can't call a scouting supervisor a good one based on just one pick. At the same time, to suggest that the selection of Wood was luck is ridiculous. The scouts who recommended him, and the supervisor who signed off on the selection made a wise choice. If you want people to take your criticisms seriously, you have to also give credit where it's due.

lollipopcurve
09-23-2005, 10:53 AM
How do you know that? Have done research to validate that claim or ar you just assuming?

I have followed the minors closely enough over the last 20 years to know that no organization pulls in a couple of HS pitchers every year who hold hitters to a .150 average, strike out 2 batters/inning and give up -- what? 1 earned run? -- and who then advance to advanced rookie ball and hold hitters below .200 again, ending up a de facto BA top 5 prospect in both leagues. This just doesn't happen.

You can choose to believe what you want. But it seems to me your assessments are way too biased to be credible.

lollipopcurve
09-23-2005, 11:01 AM
What kind of College hitters are in rookie leagues? I am not sure that they would typically be seen as advanced prospects.

Almost all of the college hitters drafted start out in advanced rookie ball. Only the very, very best start out higher. Further, the Pioneer League is known as a hitters league. To have put up the numbers Wood did in that league is extremely impressive, without any qualification I can think of.

Yeah -- he's many a mile from the majors and may never get there. But as someone who follows the draft and the minors very closely, I'm ecstatic about the choice. The kid has been more fun to follow than any pitcher the Reds have drafted in the entire time I've been watching the system as a whole.

MWM
09-23-2005, 11:19 AM
You're not exactly the one who should be questioning others' credibility simply because you've followed the minors for 20 years. And I'm not sure what kind of bias you think I have. I love the Travis Wood pick. I agree it was a wise pick. But it was ONE pick. I'm not going to give credit for knowing what you're doing until I see them getting Travis Wood type players consistently and in larger numbers. And I think you're wrong in thinking that other teams don't get multiple great looking players every year. Sure, they might not have the performance of Wood, but you're creating a picture like the Reds knew he was going to eb this good and no one else did. They made a good pick who has looked to be even better than expected. It happens all the time. For every 4 Travis Woods in rookie ball, three of them will fall back down to earth the next year.

I'm not sure how people can continue to support the current leadership of the Reds trying to tell us they know what they're doing. They don't! lollipop, you were also one of the vocal critics this offseason of anyone who thought the Reds were going to be a bad team this year. How'd that turn out for you? Yet you continue to defend the same people when they so clearly have no business being in charge of a major league baseball team.

M2
09-23-2005, 12:41 PM
The Braves and Dodgers tend to churn two or three young pitchers out of every draft. They don't always make it to the majors, but they normally get good rave reviews down in the minors at some juncture. The Cubs went on a roll earlier this decade. The A's have had a pretty good pitching churn, using some of the kids like Jeremy Bonderman, Billy Murphy, Mike Wood and Mario Ramos as trade bait while keeping others.

Plenty of organizations pull in promising young arms on a consistent basis and they enjoy the benefits of being a brand name pitching organization as a result of that.

Travis Wood certainly was the result of good scouting. Someone on the Reds determined this kid was quite a bit better than his general profile indicated. Was that a new scout? More importantly, was that part of a process that can be bottled and replicated by other scouts?

Important to keep kids in perspective. Travis Wood had an excellent debut. As has been noted in the past, it's the best debut by a Reds prep arm since Justin Gillman in 2001 ... and that right there should be enough of a cautionary tale in itself.

In this thread we've seen posters raving about having Jay Bruce at the top of some league prospects lists. I'm thrilled with that. I'm thrilled with Bruce. I was cyberdrafting Bruce as far back as April. Yet if you had all of BA's Top 10 Pioneer League prospects from 2000 you would have exactly zero major leaguers of consequence today. Only two of those guys has so much as played in the majors and the best of the entire lot is an OB-challenged leadoff hitter.

So while I'm glad to see the 2005 draft class provide some immediate returns and positive press, MWM's right on when he notes this is an isolated event that needs to become a regular practice before we haul off and proclaim that any corners have been turned.

Chip R
09-23-2005, 12:47 PM
So while I'm glad to see the 2005 draft class provide some immediate returns and positive press, MWM's right on when he notes this is an isolated event that needs to become a regular practice before we haul off and proclaim that any corners have been turned.
Yep. As my grandpa says, "Even a blind hog gets an acorn every once in a while."

TeamBoone
09-23-2005, 05:37 PM
This wouldn't be so hard to read if it didn't have Allen saying "he's done a good job"

:explode:

I agree. He's "done a good job" doing "everything we've asked".... that's the part that leaves me wondering.

BoydsOfSummer
09-23-2005, 11:42 PM
[QUOTE=harangatang]

Well at the same time we're waiting around trying to figure out if he'll wreck the minors, he's taking a nine pound hammer to the major league club.

The known quantity tells me he needs to go, regardless of what he could potentially do for the minors, and he's not given me an inkling of hope in that regard.


" Bang,Bang Dan-O's silver hammer came down upon their heads
Bang,Bang Dan-O's silver hammer made sure that they were dead..."

ochre
09-24-2005, 02:04 AM
Tyler Pelland (other than some problem with walks) performed similarly to Wood in rookie ball. Similar profile, fairly hard throwing leftys. That's why I'm not ready to get all excited about Wood (granted he appears to have a lot better control).

wheels
09-24-2005, 07:57 AM
I agree. He's "done a good job" doing "everything we've asked".... that's the part that leaves me wondering.\

That's an easy one.

Allen must've asked DanO to blow lots of cash on really bad pitching.

So, yeah he did everything they asked, and did a great job of it.

Aronchis
09-24-2005, 08:30 AM
Allen's talking about the basics of transition:
1)Good company man: Unlike Krivisky who Allen wanted, O'brien pretty much handled the restrictions on roster overhaul with little problems while Allen/Krivisky probably would have culled the entire roster.
2)Calming the Bowden waves: O'brien has kept the Reds out of the press, stopped the churning soap opera that was the Bowden era
3)Had good drafts: This is probably the most controversial, but I have a feeling, that the consensus even from the baseball "experts" is that DanO took some good gambles, especially with the 2005 draft which pleases Allen compared to the defunct Bowden era of arm throwers and 5 toolers. He has another one to "shine".

DanO's failing come in his workings of the major league operation and his struggles in using the FA and trade markets. The Milton deal is a crap stain that badly tarnishes him and will never come out completely, even if the Reds win the WS next year, it was that bad. I don't think Allen would have any disagreements on that side of it that we haven't heard at Redzone.

Ochre, comparing Pelland to Wood doesn't work. Pelland didn't throw outside the GCL level his rookie year and didn't dominate like Wood did either. That is trying to dismiss Wood's excellence of his proper age level to support your fears of his failing later on in development. I can understand why your fears are warrented considering a generation of Reds pitching development, but don't dismiss the kids first half season of pro-ball, it was darn good.

Reds fans(myself included) are probably a mentally damaged goods when it comes to pitching. We look for failure at all cost. It is going to take 2-3 pitchers of a high quality to repair that damage which has built up over the years.

wheels
09-24-2005, 10:57 AM
Man, I can't figure out why anyone would even attempt to make sense out of anything that is said or done by that front office.