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Chip R
09-22-2005, 05:07 PM
Now that the season is winding down, talk turns to what payroll will be for next season. Now I'm in the dark as much as anyone with regards on what the Reds will do next year but what I'm attempting to do with this thread is basically show what the 2006 payroll could be if certain players aren't re-signed.

This is broken down into 5 sections: 1. Arbitration eligible players (players who have 3-6 years in the big leagues) 2. Arbitration ineligible players (Players with less than 3 years in the majors. 3. Salary increases (players who have over 6 years service time and are signed through next season and will receive a raise for sure) 4. Salary decreases (players with over 6 years service time who can be free agents) 5. No changes in salary (Players who are signed through next season who will receive the same salary)

The 2006 salaries for the arbitration eligible and ineligible players are guesstimates and shouldn't really be too far off in what they will make in reality. There are a lot of players in the arbitration ineligible area and obviously all those guys didn't make what it says they did this year nor will they make what I estimate them to make in 06 because a lot of them will be in the minors or released. The $320K figure is an estimate of what will be the minimum salary next season.

Most of these numbers are from JaxRed's (http://www.redsinsite.com/playerinfo/salary_chart.php) site. It's also crosschecked with USA Today's figures. The only salaries that I'll differ on are Jr.'s and Milton's. No matter how you slice it, the Reds are laying out $12.5M a year for Jr. And Milton's salary for this year includes his bonus. Ryan Freel and Ryan Wagner may be Super 2s as far as arbitration eligibility goes. But, until I know for sure I'm listing them in the arbitration ineligible area. Besides, even if they are arbitration eligible, I doubt they will make a lot more than I have them making next year. All players included either are or were on the 40 man roster at one time or another this year. Salary estimates for 2006 are in red Let me know if you have any questions or if you think the figures are wrong.



Arbitration Eligible 2005 Salary 2006 Salary
Adam Dunn 4,600,000 7,000,000
Aaron Harang 440,000 800,000
D'Angelo Jimenez 2,875,000 0
Austin Kearns 930,000 1,500,000
Jason LaRue 3,000,000 5,000,000
Felipe Lopez 415,000 750,000
Wily Mo Pena 440,000 750,000
Javier Valentin 450,000 1,250,000
Ben Weber 600,000 0
TOTAL 13,750,000 17,050,000

Arbitration Ineligible 2005 Salary 2006 Salary
Matt Belisle 315,896 320,000
William Bergolla 315,896 320,000
Jung Bong 340,000 345,000
Chris Booker 315,896 320,000
Brandon Claussen 320,000 400,000
Todd Coffey 315,896 350,000
Chris Denorfia 315,896 320,000
Phil Dumatrait 0 320,000
Edwin Encarnacion 315,896 350,000
Ryan Freel 405,000 600,000
Justin Germano 0 320,000
Josh Hancock 322,000 330,000
Aaron Holbert 315,896 320,000
Luke Hudson 318,000 320,000
Randy Keisler 315,896 320,000
Ben Kozlowski 0 320,000
Bubba Nelson 0 320,000
Ray Olmedo 315,896 320,000
Miguel Perez 315,896 0
Elizardo Ramirez 315,896 320,000
Dane Sardinha 450,000 500,000
Brian Shackelford 315,896 340,000
Allan Simpson 315,896 320,000
Jason Standridge 315,896 320,000
Joe Valentine 315,896 320,000
Ryan Wagner 380,000 420,000
TOTAL 7,273,440 8,755,000

Salary Increases 2005 Salary 2006 Salary
Sean Casey 7,800,000 8,500,000
Kent Mercker 1,250,000 1,350,000
David Weathers 1,250,000 1,250,000
Paul Wilson 3,600,000 3,750,000
TOTALS 13,900,000 14,850,000

Salary Decreases 2005 Salary 2006 Salary
Rich Aurilia 600,000 0
Jacob Cruz 500,000 0
Danny Graves 6,250,000 0
Aaron Holbert 315,896 0
Luis Lopez 315,896 0
Anderson Machado 315,896 0
Ramon Ortiz 3,550,000 0
Joe Randa 2,150,000 0
Jason Romano 315,896 0
Ricky Stone 315,896 0
TOTAL 14,629,480 0

No Changes In Salary 2005 Salary 2006 Salary
Ken Griffey, Jr. 12,500,000 12,500,000
Eric Milton 8,000,000 8,000,000
TOTAL 20,500,000 20,500,000

GRAND TOTAL 70,052,920 61,155,000

alexad
09-22-2005, 05:16 PM
If LaRue is getting 5 millions, than I would hope Dunn gets more than 7?

harangatang
09-22-2005, 05:19 PM
If Harang is only getting 800,000 next year that's quite a steal.

fs43340
09-22-2005, 05:20 PM
Who cares what the payroll is. Under this management it won't be used right.

KronoRed
09-22-2005, 05:21 PM
I expect it near the 63 level.

Chip R
09-22-2005, 05:33 PM
If LaRue is getting 5 millions, than I would hope Dunn gets more than 7?
The difference is that LaRue is in his last year of arbitration and is making $3M. He can compare himself to any catcher out there. He would get a $2M raise which is pretty good for a catcher who has only played part time since the ASB. Dunn is a 2nd year arb eligible guy and he can really only compare himself to other players at his position in their 2nd year of arbitration eligibility and he's getting at least $7M, IMO. I doubt he'd make more than that if they settle. Even if he does it'd only be about a million or so more. And that wouldn't affect the bottom line that much. (Dunn could potentially compare himself to guys with 6 years service time or over but he probably won't unless he wants to play hardball.)

TOBTTReds
09-22-2005, 08:31 PM
I wouldnt be surprised if LaRue was non-tendered or traded before December. JV looked good enough to have back there for than $1.2 mil. Would we pay our catchers $6.2 million?? I hope not. Personally, I dont believe LaRue is worth a dime more than $3 mil. He may be good compared to other catchers in the league, but if we can get equal production at the plate if not better and save 3.8 mil, then this team has to do that.

Danny Serafini
09-23-2005, 01:23 AM
Valentin can't be counted on as a full time catcher. He hardly sees the field against lefties, which is a good thing since he's hitting .194 against them. He's had a heck of a year, but it's come completely out of nowhere, and who knows if he can do it again. Plus LaRue's a better fielder. Valentin makes a nice backup, but bite the bullet and give LaRue his money.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2005, 02:46 AM
I look for that to rise as we reach 2006. You can bet that Dunn or Kearns or Pena will be shopped heavily--mostly Pena and Kearns and that they will try to sign another pitcher, but I don't expect it to go over 70 million.

And I do look for Rich Aurilia to be back, much to the chagrin of many RedZoners. And as for Milton? Can you say "give away." They'll be trying (but we'll be paying the tab).

dfs
09-23-2005, 10:58 AM
Thank Chip. That's a great post.

I agree with VWredsfan, there is a mutual option with Rich A. I have a feeling that it's going to be exercised.

Chip R
09-23-2005, 11:03 AM
Thank Chip. That's a great post.

I agree with VWredsfan, there is a mutual option with Rich A. I have a feeling that it's going to be exercised.

Thanks. I get the feeling that Narron will insist on RA coming back if he's going to be manager next year. It may be a deal breaker. However, we must remember that it's a mutual option. If Rich doesn't want to come back he doesn't have to even if the Reds want him back. He may think he'll get a better deal someplace else. I haven't heard DanO say anything lately but from what he's said previously it sounds like he doesn't want him to come back. He's probably sick of RA complaining about playing time and such.

dfs
09-23-2005, 01:56 PM
"He may think he'll get a better deal someplace else. I haven't heard DanO say anything lately but from what he's said previously it sounds like he doesn't want him to come back. He's probably sick of RA complaining about playing time and such."

It's just me, but I don't think so.
I think the reason DanO didn't deal Weathers and Merker was because DanO thought they could contribute next year.

I think it may be the reason DanO didn't deal RA may be that DanO thinks that RA can contribute and the financial terms on that option are such that RA will pick it up.

Hey, I could be wrong....I'm not suggesting it's a good or bad course of action....it's just what I think is going on.

Aronchis
09-23-2005, 01:59 PM
"He may think he'll get a better deal someplace else. I haven't heard DanO say anything lately but from what he's said previously it sounds like he doesn't want him to come back. He's probably sick of RA complaining about playing time and such."

It's just me, but I don't think so.
I think the reason DanO didn't deal Weathers and Merker was because DanO thought they could contribute next year.

I think it may be the reason DanO didn't deal RA may be that DanO thinks that RA can contribute and the financial terms on that option are such that RA will pick it up.

Hey, I could be wrong....I'm not suggesting it's a good or bad course of action....it's just what I think is going on.

DanO didn't trade Weathers or Merker because he didn't have the authority besides your obvious claim.

johngalt
09-23-2005, 04:56 PM
I highly doubt you'll see both LaRue and Valentin wearing Reds uniforms next year. This club is not going to spend upwards of $8-9 million on its catchers.

Chip R
01-18-2006, 04:24 PM
Now that the season is winding down, talk turns to what payroll will be for next season. Now I'm in the dark as much as anyone with regards on what the Reds will do next year but what I'm attempting to do with this thread is basically show what the 2006 payroll could be if certain players aren't re-signed.

This is broken down into 5 sections: 1. Arbitration eligible players (players who have 3-6 years in the big leagues) 2. Arbitration ineligible players (Players with less than 3 years in the majors. 3. Salary increases (players who have over 6 years service time and are signed through next season and will receive a raise for sure) 4. Salary decreases (players with over 6 years service time who can be free agents) 5. No changes in salary (Players who are signed through next season who will receive the same salary)

The 2006 salaries for the arbitration eligible and ineligible players are guesstimates and shouldn't really be too far off in what they will make in reality. There are a lot of players in the arbitration ineligible area and obviously all those guys didn't make what it says they did this year nor will they make what I estimate them to make in 06 because a lot of them will be in the minors or released. The $320K figure is an estimate of what will be the minimum salary next season.

Most of these numbers are from JaxRed's (http://www.redsinsite.com/playerinfo/salary_chart.php) site. It's also crosschecked with USA Today's figures. The only salaries that I'll differ on are Jr.'s and Milton's. No matter how you slice it, the Reds are laying out $12.5M a year for Jr. And Milton's salary for this year includes his bonus. Ryan Freel and Ryan Wagner may be Super 2s as far as arbitration eligibility goes. But, until I know for sure I'm listing them in the arbitration ineligible area. Besides, even if they are arbitration eligible, I doubt they will make a lot more than I have them making next year. All players included either are or were on the 40 man roster at one time or another this year. Salary estimates for 2006 are in red Let me know if you have any questions or if you think the figures are wrong.



Arbitration Eligible 2005 Salary 2006 Salary
Adam Dunn 4,600,000 7,000,000
Aaron Harang 440,000 800,000
D'Angelo Jimenez 2,875,000 0
Austin Kearns 930,000 1,500,000
Jason LaRue 3,000,000 5,000,000
Felipe Lopez 415,000 750,000
Wily Mo Pena 440,000 750,000
Javier Valentin 450,000 1,250,000
Ben Weber 600,000 0
TOTAL 13,750,000 17,050,000




I thought I'd bring this back up again to show the difference in what I projected these arbitration eligible players would get next year. As you can see I was pretty close on some but way off on others. I didn't want to post the whole list because that area isn't where the big salary increases are at. Basically all that was was a wash. Take out Casey's, and Ortiz' and D'Lo's salaries and add Aurilia's, Womack's and Williams. Might even save a bit.

Salary estimates for 2006 are in red Let me know if you have any questions or if you think the figures are wrong.



Arbitration Eligible 2005 Salary 2006 Salary
Adam Dunn 4,600,000 8,950,000
Aaron Harang 440,000 2,350,000
D'Angelo Jimenez 2,875,000 0
Austin Kearns 930,000 1,850,000
Jason LaRue 3,000,000 3,900,000
Felipe Lopez 415,000 3,000,000
Wily Mo Pena 440,000 1,250,000
Javier Valentin 450,000 1,150,000
Ben Weber 600,000 0
Ryan Freel 405,000 1,300,000
TOTAL 13,750,000 23,750,000

So according to these figures, payroll should be in about the mid 60s this coming year even if Lopez and Dunn get what they are asking for. Down a bit from last year but not too much.

Heath
01-18-2006, 04:28 PM
Thanks Chip - I was actually thinking about how payroll was sitting because of the new signings.