PDA

View Full Version : John Sickels agrees that the Reds' farm system is totally barren



cincinnati chili
01-07-2006, 10:59 PM
His Top 50 hitters and pitchers will be released in a couple days.

Zero hitters in the top 50.

The only pitcher in the top 50 was Homer Bailey, which surprises me.

The lack of Edwin E. is a surprise.

ochre
01-07-2006, 11:04 PM
Encarnacion may have spent enough time with the Reds last year to be moved off of his prospect list?

BoydsOfSummer
01-08-2006, 12:33 AM
Yeah, Double E is no longer eligible.

KronoRed
01-08-2006, 12:36 AM
Our farm is a dust bowl.

Aronchis
01-08-2006, 12:49 AM
That is because the Reds upper minors are barren. If the 2003 draft had panned out better, Gardner and Pauly would be on the verge and ready to add some talent to the Reds rotation and bullpen along with the blooming Wagner. But the Bowden legacy wouldn't let it happen. I called it a red herring in 2004 and people got mad. A final functional collapse of a systematic disaster the Bowden trust was.

So, your Cast, the team has a interesting core of young positional talent. Some of it is getting expensive, but mature. Do you
A)trade them off for prospects(which could begin in 06 if the GM they want is available)
B)fill in the holes for a 2007 run while keeping that core intact through FA and trade?

What would you do in the 06/07 offseason?

Caveat Emperor
01-08-2006, 01:14 AM
So, your Cast, the team has a interesting core of young positional talent. Some of it is getting expensive, but mature. Do you
A)trade them off for prospects(which could begin in 06 if the GM they want is available)
B)fill in the holes for a 2007 run while keeping that core intact through FA and trade?

What would you do in the 06/07 offseason?

Every off season, as the dollars being spent on middling and medicore starting pitchers get higher and higher, I come more to the realization that it is just too expensive to rely on free agency to buy a starting rotation and expect to be competitive.

Without any positional talent in the minors to use as bartering chips for pitching, the Reds simply are not going to be able (financially) to be a competitive ballclub without either a massive overhaul of the roster and an influx of young talent in the higher minor leagues or a spending spree that would rival anything this side of the Northeast Corridor. I just don't see Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena (the "Trade Bait du Jour") as being the "curealls" to the Reds pitching woes: they're too unproven to net anything other than unproven and (likely) unprojectable talent in return. With pitching so prized, nobody is going to part with anything even remotely good for either of those two.

Holes in the farm system lead to franchise instability, because there is no steady stream of players to replace aging, expensive, or injured veterans as they come and go from the ballclub. It also means there is no pool of talent to trade from a position of strength to get talent in a position of weakness. The Reds have 2 players, IMO, right now who can make their farm system healthy in a hurry: Adam Dunn and Felipe Lopez. Both of those players, in the hands of a competent GM, should be able to net substantial value in return.

Is trading them the best move for the franchise? I don't know -- but what I do know is that there is no calvalry to wait for in the minor leagues, and won't be one for quite some time. So, you can play the waiting game and continue to urinate money away paying for offensive players in their prime to battle in 8-9 slugfests...or you can try to parlay that talent into younger pieces that better have a chance of forming a complete ballclub.

Me? I choose something that has a chance of bringing a winning ballclub to town over a formulae that is almost certain to keep a losing one around.

M2
01-08-2006, 01:53 AM
2006 will be a "prove yourself" season for the Reds farm system. People are going to have to step up if they want recognition. A big year from Jay Bruce could land him inside most top 100 lists. I expect he'll make the BA list, something EdE only did once for reasons beyond explanation. A big year from Travis Wood will get him on most lists. If Calvin Medlock carves up AA or Joey Votto has a bounce back season (and hitting well for Team Canada wouldn't hurt his cause either) then they might appear on some lists. But the Reds aren't getting anyone on there without performance next season ... and that includes Homer Bailey. He's made the lists to date because of projections. If he puts up numbers again like he did last season I expect even BA will slide him out of the top 100. If the organization has another season where its top 10 falls apart before Memorial Day, it'll be headed to #30. As it is, I can't imagine the Reds will be cracking the top 25 this year.

Red Thunder
01-08-2006, 06:03 AM
Don't the Reds still have the same farm / scouting directors which were also employed during the Bowden era? If that's still the case I don't expect better drafts in the near future.

Krusty
01-08-2006, 09:58 AM
Don't the Reds still have the same farm / scouting directors which were also employed during the Bowden era? If that's still the case I don't expect better drafts in the near future.

Tim Naehring is the player development guy, who was hired during the Bowden era. Terry Reynolds is the director of scouting and he was brought in by O'Brien from the Dodgers system. Many of the scouts were hired during the O'Brien era. I am curious to what former Houston GM Bill Wood's position is with the Reds. I also believe Leland Maddox and Brad Kullman are still with the Reds but their roles have lessen since O'Brien is the GM. The reason why they are still here is because Lindner hates to eat contracts.

In regards to the farm system, I believe you have to wait five years before you can really judge how the system is working. From the time you draft a player and develop him as he makes his way up through the system usually takes four or five years.

If you want to point a finger at someone, point it at Jim Bowden's drafts from 2000--2003 for why the club is barren with prospects.

Topcat
01-08-2006, 01:50 PM
If you want to point a finger at someone, point it at Jim Bowden's drafts from 2000--2003 for why the club is barren with prospects.

Truer words have never been more spoken or typed. Those drafts thru injury and miscalculations have totally killed the reds.:bang:

Caveat Emperor
01-08-2006, 02:30 PM
If you want to point a finger at someone, point it at Jim Bowden's drafts from 2000--2003 for why the club is barren with prospects.

Truer words have never been more spoken or typed. Those drafts thru injury and miscalculations have totally killed the reds.:bang:

Where fault lies in the failure to build a farm system is wholly irrelevant to the Reds current problems, however. The fact is, no matter who you choose to blame, the Reds have a gaping hole in their system -- the result of which will be a number of seasons in which the system will (likely) be unable to contribute talent to the major league ballclub.

The drafts may not have turned out well, but that's not a reason to throw ones hands up in the air and just say "Oh well, we're screwed." The problem needs to be addressed, not continually pointed to as a source of failure.

Unless you're cool with just waiting until the '07 or '08 season for a chance at something resembling respectability.

OldXOhio
01-08-2006, 02:56 PM
2006 will be a "prove yourself" season for the Reds farm system.

You'd think that as lousy as the major league product has been for five seasons, the organization would at least have the farm system beefed up, as if to say they've had their eyes on the future. The fact that after this many years we even have to discuss the 2006 minor league season as being a "prove yourself" type year like you're mentioning is mind boggling to me. How many fronts must this organization be achieving new levels of futility on before they tear the whole thing down and start over?

4256 Hits
01-08-2006, 03:06 PM
If you want to point a finger at someone, point it at Jim Bowden's drafts from 2000--2003 for why the club is barren with prospects.

Truer words have never been more spoken or typed. Those drafts thru injury and miscalculations have totally killed the reds.:bang:

That is very true but a team can also aquire prospect the way EdE was via trades. DanO inherited many players that he could have traded to improve the farm system. He only tried w/ one (Reitma) and he falled terrible w/ that one.:help:

MikeS21
01-08-2006, 03:23 PM
You'd think that as lousy as the major league product has been for five seasons, the organization would at least have the farm system beefed up, as if to say they've had their eyes on the future. The fact that after this many years we even have to discuss the 2006 minor league season as being a "prove yourself" type year like you're mentioning is mind boggling to me. How many fronts must this organization be achieving new levels of futility on before they tear the whole thing down and start over?
This is my thinking exactly.

If I actually saw some signs in the Reds' farm system that true talent was being re-stocked and in the pipeline, I could live with sub-par performance at the major league level for a couple years. They major league team's let-downs of 2000 and 2001 were easier to swallow when you looked at guys like Kearns and Dunn on the horizon. But we have no one on the horizon.

O'Brien was introduced at that infamous press conference, where he thanked everyone in the Western Hemisphere, and he said then that his plan was to rebuild this team through the farm system. It is obvious that Bowden had no clue how to draft decent players. And I've not seen very much philosophical change with O'Brien. The farm system is worse now than the day O'brien took over. Yet he is suposed to be rebuilding through the farm system.

High School pitchers are projects. I don't care if your name is Ty Howington, Jeremy Sowers, Chris Gruler, Homer Bailey, or Travis Wood. I cannot fathom why the Reds continue to invest/waste high draft picks on pitchers who are at least six years away from the majors (if ever).

One huge thing I notice in BA's evaluation of pitchers in other minor league systems is that they talk about the skills the pitchers already posses. But when it comes to Reds' pitchers, they always talk about potential.

I'm tired of talking about potential. Let's see some possession.

Aronchis
01-08-2006, 03:36 PM
This is my thinking exactly.

If I actually saw some signs in the Reds' farm system that true talent was being re-stocked and in the pipeline, I could live with sub-par performance at the major league level for a couple years. They major league team's let-downs of 2000 and 2001 were easier to swallow when you looked at guys like Kearns and Dunn on the horizon. But we have no one on the horizon.

O'Brien was introduced at that infamous press conference, where he thanked everyone in the Western Hemisphere, and he said then that his plan was to rebuild this team through the farm system. It is obvious that Bowden had no clue how to draft decent players. And I've not seen very much philosophical change with O'Brien. The farm system is worse now than the day O'brien took over. Yet he is suposed to be rebuilding through the farm system.

High School pitchers are projects. I don't care if your name is Ty Howington, Jeremy Sowers, Chris Gruler, Homer Bailey, or Travis Wood. I cannot fathom why the Reds continue to invest/waste high draft picks on pitchers who are at least six years away from the majors (if ever).

One huge thing I notice in BA's evaluation of pitchers in other minor league systems is that they talk about the skills the pitchers already posses. But when it comes to Reds' pitchers, they always talk about potential.

I'm tired of talking about potential. Let's see some possession.

Boo those Braves for drafting Davies:rolleyes:

Taking High School pitchers in the first round is dangerous, afterwords, that isn't always the case.

M2
01-08-2006, 03:46 PM
Boo those Braves for drafting Davies:rolleyes:

Taking High School pitchers in the first round is dangerous, afterwords, that isn't always the case.

The Braves drafted Davies in the 4th round. Their top pick that year (2001) was prep lefty Macay McBride, who's struggled the last two seasons in the high minors.

EX BRAVEDAD
01-08-2006, 05:05 PM
Mcbride pitched out of the bullpen for the Braves on the big league level last year and did not do too bad

red-in-la
01-08-2006, 07:09 PM
That is because the Reds upper minors are barren. If the 2003 draft had panned out better, Gardner and Pauly would be on the verge and ready to add some talent to the Reds rotation and bullpen along with the blooming Wagner. But the Bowden legacy wouldn't let it happen. I called it a red herring in 2004 and people got mad. A final functional collapse of a systematic disaster the Bowden trust was.

So, your Cast, the team has a interesting core of young positional talent. Some of it is getting expensive, but mature. Do you
A)trade them off for prospects(which could begin in 06 if the GM they want is available)
B)fill in the holes for a 2007 run while keeping that core intact through FA and trade?

What would you do in the 06/07 offseason?

"Are you saying you can tell me who will be in the White House in the next four years? Now that would be important information."

Team Clark
01-09-2006, 01:12 PM
This may have been one of the reasons Casey McKeon was let go.

Heath
01-09-2006, 01:20 PM
This may have been one of the reasons Casey McKeon was let go.

The other reason was that DanO got in a fight with Casey saying that 'My dad is a better talent evaluator than your dad'.

:rolleyes:

Aronchis
01-09-2006, 03:48 PM
The other reason was that DanO got in a fight with Casey saying that 'My dad is a better talent evaluator than your dad'.

:rolleyes:

Mckeon was gone before DanO got there. After the "disaster" 2002 draft, McKeon was essentially fired.