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View Full Version : Chances of Dunn signing LT



flyer85
01-17-2006, 12:34 PM
at anytime in the next year plus.

I am really curious to see what people think about this.

Unassisted
01-17-2006, 12:40 PM
40% was the number that came to mind for me.

It would be interesting to ask this again after a few months of the Castellini regime.

REDREAD
01-17-2006, 12:49 PM
I think it's zero.

The hints (IMO) say that Dunn is just marking his time until he gets out of here. The time is past to save money by signing Dunn longterm. Thanks to incompetence by DanO and Bowden, at this point it probably does make the most sense to go year to year with Dunn. Why? Because we won't save any money (Dunn is going to demand expected market value, and I don't blame him).. Also, I doubt Dunn lets us buy out his any of free agent years.

pedro
01-17-2006, 12:55 PM
I think it's zero.

The hints (IMO) say that Dunn is just marking his time until he gets out of here. The time is past to save money by signing Dunn longterm. Thanks to incompetence by DanO and Bowden, at this point it probably does make the most sense to go year to year with Dunn. Why? Because we won't save any money (Dunn is going to demand expected market value, and I don't blame him).. Also, I doubt Dunn lets us buy out his any of free agent years.

a little birdy told some of us that Dunn was rumored to be asking for a 3 year deal.

IIRC, that would mean he'd be a Red just as long as Kearns, assuming that Kearns isn't traded or signed to a LTC himself.

flyer85
01-17-2006, 12:56 PM
IIRC, Adam officially has really said little about it. For the most part Cincy has not developed players worthy of recieving a long term commitmenta and they seem more than content to focus on 1 and 2 year deals at most.

I am beginning to believe thatwe won't see any of the 4 young guys(Dunn, Kearns, Pena and Lopez) here long term. We seem to be morphing into an eastern version of the KC Royals. I wish I would be proven wrong.

flyer85
01-17-2006, 12:57 PM
a little birdy was it a mockingbird?

Reds4Life
01-17-2006, 01:03 PM
I chose 51-75%, I think it will happen but much of it depends on the departure of DanO. If he's gone before the season starts I think you'll see Dunn sign a new deal around the All-Star break after the new GM is in place and is settled in.

If they don't dump DanO until midseason, or the end of the year, the picture gets rather hazy and the odds reduce dramatically IMO.

pedro
01-17-2006, 01:05 PM
was it a mockingbird?


nope.

remember, Dunn did mention 3 year 22 mil earlier this offseason. FWIW, the rumor I heard was recent, as in yesterday.

Redsland
01-17-2006, 01:10 PM
Today it's 0%.

Friday it may be as high as 50/50.

Puffy
01-17-2006, 01:23 PM
I voted in the 26 to 50% one.

I am not convinced that once new ownership takes control that DanO will be let go. And if DanO stays the smart moves that the Reds could make get reduced to almost zero. DanO stays and we continue to :bang:

TOBTTReds
01-17-2006, 02:33 PM
remember, Dunn did mention 3 year 22 mil earlier this offseason. FWIW, the rumor I heard was recent, as in yesterday.

Which is why I can't believe he isn't signed already. I would sign him to that in a second.

KittyDuran
01-17-2006, 02:37 PM
I voted 0-25% only because like REDREAD I think Dunn's just bidding his time so he can get out of here - but not for the same reasons. IMHO, he's got enough money, he probably wants to get back home to the Houston area and that home on the lake. :(

Barbarossa
01-17-2006, 03:09 PM
nope.

remember, Dunn did mention 3 year 22 mil earlier this offseason. FWIW, the rumor I heard was recent, as in yesterday.

I remember too. Dunn has never said he didn't like it here. Seem to recall a few years ago when the Reds were trying to ink a long term deal with another player; Dunn said "Wish they'd offer me a long term deal, I like it here". I think the new owners will get him signed.

REDJAKE
01-17-2006, 05:15 PM
I have said numerous times on this site i think he is a short timer he certainly isn't going to tell fans he wants to play nearer home in Texas would you? I would move him for the best trade and move on i just do not think he wants to stay here. Good luck to Dunn whoever he goes with but i want to get something for him. And i sure do not want to see him at first the guy just isn't a defanse player regardless of the position.GO CINCY!!!!! PS. He would be a great DH for the Rangers.

KronoRed
01-17-2006, 09:04 PM
Less then zero.

Not only is it now too late, but Dunn seems to me that he's not a Dan O scrappy type of player.

StillFunkyB
01-18-2006, 01:11 AM
Today it's 0%.

Friday it may be as high as 50/50.

Seems like I am following Redsland around the board....

I picked 26-50.

That could change if the new owner(s) come in and make some positive moves (read: fire DanO)

Jpup
01-18-2006, 06:58 AM
For all of those that think that Dunn wants out, why do you think that? I have see little indication from Adam Dunn or from those around him that he is wanting to leave Cincinnati. The only place I've seen with something in black and white was on the Reds Live! board...written by Astrobuddy (I think they are cousins;) ).

I know I'm not a very optimistic poster, but I think that some of the posts concerning Adam Dunn are less than optimistic due to the current climate surrounding the ball club. I fully expect that to change sooner rather than later. If Dan O'brien and John Allen aren't fired within the next 60 days, I will be suprised. Even so, they will be gone before next winter. It isn't uncommon for a player to want to test the free agent waters and then resign with the team that gave him his start.

I think that the time to sign Dunn to a "cheap" contract has passed, the time to sign him to a "fair" contract is now upon the organization. If you were Adam Dunn, would you not wait until, at least, this season to consider a long term contract? I certainly would. He is a smart guy and probably has some intelligent people advising him on financial matters. $10-$12 million per is a whole lot better this year than $4-6 million per was last season.

Don't just look at things as if you were the Reds front office, look at things from Adam's perspective.

KronoRed
01-18-2006, 07:03 AM
I voted 0-25% only because like REDREAD I think Dunn's just bidding his time so he can get out of here - but not for the same reasons. IMHO, he's got enough money, he probably wants to get back home to the Houston area and that home on the lake. :(
He'll be able to fly home whenever he wants with the cash he'll get on the FA market. ;)

I think if he really wanted to be an astro that bad he'd demand a trade right now

Heath
01-18-2006, 09:28 AM
Less then zero.

Not only is it now too late, but Dunn seems to me that he's not a Dan O scrappy type of player.


On top of that he doesn't make much contact, doesn't hit sac flies, and strikes out too much.

Other than that the 40+ hr and 100+ RBI's the last couple of years - that's just "luck".

:rolleyes:

I voted 26-50% based on two items

One - he'll sign if the new owners provide him with a plan to turn this thing around.

Two - The new owners will fumble this around like DanO and Uncle Carl.

Let's hope the owners remember the Cardinals giving a LTC with Scott Rolen & Albert Pujois when dealing with Adam Dunn.

membengal
01-18-2006, 09:58 AM
I don't think it has anything to do with his like or dislike of the city. I voted 0% because I cannot imagine why anyone talented would re-up with this organization as it is currently constituted. If you were on a boat in the ocean with no rudder, no compass, and no one around with any idea how to get those things and get the boat going in the desired direction, would you stay if you were offered a chance to go to a boat with those things?

I wouldn't, and I don't think anyone here would. If the change of ownership does not yield an immediate change in the GM et al, with an accompanying statement from the new owner that this franchise will enter the 21st century, then we will lose a future Hall of Famer.

REDREAD
01-18-2006, 10:41 AM
a little birdy told some of us that Dunn was rumored to be asking for a 3 year deal.



I hope that's right. Actually, your reasoning is good. I think that buys out one year of free agency for Dunn, and like you said, that's as long as Kearns is left.

Is it also the amount of time Jr has left? Can you imagine this team if Pena, Kearns, Dunn, and Jr all go free agent in the same year (2008)? I know Jr will be old by then, but if we have to replace the entire OF in 2008, we're really screwed.

Heath
01-18-2006, 10:57 AM
I hope that's right. Actually, your reasoning is good. I think that buys out one year of free agency for Dunn, and like you said, that's as long as Kearns is left.

Is it also the amount of time Jr has left? Can you imagine this team if Pena, Kearns, Dunn, and Jr all go free agent in the same year (2008)? I know Jr will be old by then, but if we have to replace the entire OF in 2008, we're really screwed.

In 2008, my guess is that Jr. retires and we have an OF of Denorfia, Jeremiah Piepkorn & Tonys Gutierrez.

:D :eek:

This, of course, after we go "Marlins" and have a fire sale after a world championship :eek: :eek:

KearnsyEars
01-21-2006, 01:38 PM
Dunn will be a career red. If this new owner really wants to win, he'll see to it that Dunn is a part of this team for a long, long time.

KronoRed
01-21-2006, 01:41 PM
I'm upgrading to .0005% ;)

Unassisted
01-21-2006, 03:27 PM
Dunn will be a career red. If this new owner really wants to win, he'll see to it that Dunn is a part of this team for a long, long time.It's a nice hope, but it's not a good sign that Castellini didn't increase the 2006 payroll. It becomes harder to fit Dunn into a relatively fixed budget with each passing year.