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View Full Version : Dunn asks for 8.95 mil, Lopez asks for 3 mil



harangatang
01-17-2006, 07:16 PM
From Marc's Blog

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/


Well, the Reds have some work to do with their two remaining arbitration-eligible guys. The figures, courtesy of the AP:

Adam Dunn asked for $8.95 million, and the Reds offered $7.1 million
Felipe Lopez asked for $3 million, and the Reds offered $2.15 million

FYI, the gap between Dunn's numbers is the second-highest among the 44 players filing figures Tuesday. Alfonso Soriano asked the Nats for $12 million and they countered with $10 million.

Unassisted
01-17-2006, 07:21 PM
I hope Mr. Castellini brings his checkbook to the office next week. Looks like he'll need it.

M2
01-17-2006, 07:34 PM
I hope Mr. Castellini brings his checkbook to the office next week. Looks like he'll need it.

Even if they got what they were asking for (and both will settle for less), the club's got more than enough to cover the $6.91M cumulative increase they're asking (and, yes, it had that money even before Casey got dealt).

Red Heeler
01-17-2006, 07:44 PM
I would tell Mr. Dunn that he could have $8.95 million for the next five years.

westofyou
01-17-2006, 07:46 PM
I would tell Mr. Dunn that he could have $8.95 million for the next five years.
Per year or for all 5?

Me I'd counter with 22 for 3, with a 9 million dollar club option for the 4th year.

harangatang
01-17-2006, 07:51 PM
Per year or for all 5?

Me I'd counter with 22 for 3, with a 9 million dollar club option for the 4th year.

Mark Teixeira got a two year 15.4 million deal today and he is a Boras client. He hit .301 with 43 home runs and 144 RBIs with 124 K's. In comparison Dunn hit .247 with 40 home runs and 101 RBIs with 168 K's.

M2
01-17-2006, 07:52 PM
I would tell Mr. Dunn that he could have $8.95 million for the next five years.

Well, that's certainly the starting point, pay him more this year so he'll take less in the years afterward. Perhaps a 9, 10, 11, 12 with an option 5th season would get it done?

M2
01-17-2006, 07:54 PM
Mark Teixeira got a two year 15.4 million deal today and he is a Boras client. He hit .301 with 43 home runs and 144 RBIs with 124 K's. In comparison Dunn hit .247 with 40 home runs and 101 RBIs with 168 K's.

Dunn's got an extra year of service time and the Rangers weren't buying any free agent years from Teixeira.

Falls City Beer
01-17-2006, 07:55 PM
Per year or for all 5?

Me I'd counter with 22 for 3, with a 9 million dollar club option for the 4th year.

No way Dunn signs for fewer than 5 years, IMO. I'd give it to him.

westofyou
01-17-2006, 08:00 PM
Mark Teixeira got a two year 15.4 million deal today and he is a Boras client. He hit .301 with 43 home runs and 144 RBIs with 124 K's. In comparison Dunn hit .247 with 40 home runs and 101 RBIs with 168 K's.
Counting stats are bunk in this comparison, they are in different leagues too.

.257/.388/.554/.942 Adam Dunn in his last 1352 trips to the plate makes an out 62.5% of the time.

.292/.375/.568/.943 Mark Teixeira in his last 1355 trips to the plate makes an out 64.3% of the time.

I'll take Dunn myself

corkedbat
01-17-2006, 08:12 PM
Counting stats are bunk in this comparison, they are in different leagues too.

.257/.388/.554/.942 Adam Dunn in his last 1352 trips to the plate makes an out 62.5% of the time.

.292/.375/.568/.943 Mark Teixeira in his last 1355 trips to the plate makes an out 64.3% of the time.

I'll take Dunn myself

Yes, but how many times has Teixeira struckout in those 1355 trips? :evil:

RedsManRick
01-17-2006, 08:29 PM
Yeah, but how many sac flys did Teixeira have in those 1355 trips? :evil:

TeamBoone
01-17-2006, 09:07 PM
01/17/2006 6:31 PM ET

Reds make offers to Dunn, Lopez
Club hopes to avoid arbitration with remaining eligible players
By Anthony Castrovince / MLB.com

The Reds don't want to get in the position of "beating" or "losing to" their own players.

Arbitration is a contentious process that the club hopes to avoid.

But should contract talks with Adam Dunn and Felipe Lopez come down to an arbitration hearing, the Reds now know what to expect, one way or another.

The Reds and their two remaining arbitration-eligible players exchanged salary figures Tuesday.

Dunn was offered $7.1 million; he is asking for $8.95 million.

Lopez was offered $2.15 million; he is asking for $3 million.

Dunn, who is expected to convert to full-time first-base duties in 2006, hit .247 with 40 home runs and 101 RBIs in '05. He made $4.6 million last season.

Lopez will be getting a substantial raise from the $415,000 he made in his breakout 2005 season, during which he hit .291 with 23 home runs and 85 RBIs. The Reds last went to arbitration with a player in 2004, when they won a case against reliever Chris Reitsma.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060117&content_id=1297022&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

MattyHo4Life
01-17-2006, 09:37 PM
Well, that's certainly the starting point, pay him more this year so he'll take less in the years afterward. Perhaps a 9, 10, 11, 12 with an option 5th season would get it done?

That would be a good offer for both sides. The Reds needs to sign him long term now, because they won't be able to afford him once he's a free agent. They need to offer him enough now to entice him to sign, otherwise he can just wait.

KronoRed
01-17-2006, 10:06 PM
No way Dunn signs for fewer than 5 years, IMO. I'd give it to him.
So would I.

He's proven.

Nugget
01-17-2006, 11:08 PM
All you know is what Dunn and his agent have put up as the arbitration offer. They have to come up with a realistic estimation for next year so the arb offer won't look unreasonable and they have a chance of being offered that. For all we know his asking price on a long term contract may be a lot more than the arb figure. If he say he wants 10 years and $25 million a year do you say yes?

reds1869
01-17-2006, 11:15 PM
All you know is what Dunn and his agent have put up as the arbitration offer. They have to come up with a realistic estimation for next year so the arb offer won't look unreasonable and they have a chance of being offered that. For all we know his asking price on a long term contract may be a lot more than the arb figure. If he say he wants 10 years and $25 million a year do you say yes?


If he says that I tell him to find a team that would pay a player with his numbers that. If he finds one, best wishes.

I think the figure Dunn's people want is not at all unreasonable. I find it hard to believe that the arbitrator will side with anyone but Dunn.

jnwohio
01-17-2006, 11:52 PM
I think the figure Dunn's people want is not at all unreasonable. I find it hard to believe that the arbitrator will side with anyone but Dunn.

Both sides could be posturing for an LTC starting point. And they might not be that far off if say, Dunn's figure is the midpoint he wants over 4 or 5 years and the Reds is where they want to start him. So if they could agree to these that only would leave the high end and length to get worked out.

I'm sticking to what I said in the ownership thread. Unless Dunn's folks are just out to break the bank or have already decided to take him to free agency, I would not be surprised for the announcement of a LTC to be a prominent part of Castellini's coming out press conference on Friday afternoon.

TeamSelig
01-17-2006, 11:57 PM
Question about the avoiding arbitration thing... say he has 2 arbitration years left, but he avoids it by signing a 1 year contract. Would this mean he would be a FA after one year? Or would he go into his 2nd phase of arbitration? Is that how it works?

StillFunkyB
01-18-2006, 12:07 AM
Question about the avoiding arbitration thing... say he has 2 arbitration years left, but he avoids it by signing a 1 year contract. Would this mean he would be a FA after one year? Or would he go into his 2nd phase of arbitration? Is that how it works?

He would still be arbi the 2nd year, just avoiding it for the first year.

I think they should just give Dunn what he asks this year, and hope that is sort of a good faith jesture to try and get him commited to a LTC.

Patrick Bateman
01-18-2006, 12:19 AM
Per year or for all 5?

Me I'd counter with 22 for 3, with a 9 million dollar club option for the 4th year.
In arbitration, Dunn will get, as a minimum, something like $7.1M and $9-10M, and then FA for $12M+. So, a 3 year contract would have to start at about $28M+.

A home team discount would be a 5 year contract for $7-9-11-13-13M, or $53M.

harangatang
01-18-2006, 12:27 AM
I would not be surprised for the announcement of a LTC to be a prominent part of Castellini's coming out press conference on Friday afternoon.

That would definitely be a good way to start showing the fans the new ownership cares about winning. Yet Lindner tried the same thing with Griffey and Larkin and then wouldn't spend the money to get pitching. So if Castinelli is willing to spend a little money to improve the pitching I think it would be great. Otherwise flip him for some young pitching and hope for the best.

Redsland
01-18-2006, 12:38 AM
Question about the avoiding arbitration thing... say he has 2 arbitration years left, but he avoids it by signing a 1 year contract. Would this mean he would be a FA after one year? Or would he go into his 2nd phase of arbitration? Is that how it works?
Generally speaking, your team can sign you to any contract it likes during your first three years of major league service. During your next three years of service, generally speaking, you have the right to arbitration (unless you've signed a long-term contract). Generally speaking, after six years of major league service time, you become a free agent (again, unless you've signed a long-term contract).

There are subtleties like "Super 2" that can alter this arrangement, but that's the gist.

Hondo
01-18-2006, 03:39 AM
Whatever it takes...

Ron Madden
01-18-2006, 04:37 AM
Call me crazy but I believe Dunn, Lopez and EE can be verry important to the future of this franchise. Let's keep'em, Play'em and Pay'em.

buckeyenut
01-18-2006, 07:38 AM
I think 2.5 for Felipe and 8M for Dunn are reasonable compromises for both sides. Get er dun.

Red Heeler
01-18-2006, 08:21 AM
Well, that's certainly the starting point, pay him more this year so he'll take less in the years afterward. Perhaps a 9, 10, 11, 12 with an option 5th season would get it done?

Heck, I'd front load the deal. Bite the bullet this year and have PayFlex in the future. Offer $4 million signing bonus and $7.5 for 4 years with an option for a fifth. Then get one of Great American's best salesmen to explain time value of money to Adam.

dfs
01-18-2006, 10:45 AM
Just for arguments sake....

Why would Adam Dunn want to be a cincinnatti red?

I'm just curious. Dunn appears to be a reasonably bright athletic young man. Even the lowest of these offers insures that he pretty much already has all the money he needs for the rest of his life. So throw money out the window as a serious motivator...now, why would Adam Dunn want to remain a cincinatti red?

The up and coming ball team?
Goodwill from the front office?
The way they treated Larkin?
The way they treated Casey?
The great ballpark?

Just pretend that Adam Dunn is a rational young man. Now, what incentive does Adam Dunn have to sign a 5 year deal with this club? Is there enough money to motivate that?

Unassisted
01-18-2006, 10:54 AM
Just pretend that Adam Dunn is a rational young man. Now, what incentive does Adam Dunn have to sign a 5 year deal with this club? Is there enough money to motivate that?I would guess that the Castellini presser on Friday will contain superlatives about the future, but be lean on specifics. Still, the messages within his remarks should be a significant clue as to how the Reds will sell a long-term relationship to Dunn.

"Throw out the past," they'll tell him. "Things are going to be different around here." Those are the kinds of things that he is likely to hear from the GM and the owner as they attempt to plow under those negatives you mentioned and make the case for him to sign a LTC.

M2
01-18-2006, 11:30 AM
Just for arguments sake....

Why would Adam Dunn want to be a cincinnatti red?

I'm just curious. Dunn appears to be a reasonably bright athletic young man. Even the lowest of these offers insures that he pretty much already has all the money he needs for the rest of his life. So throw money out the window as a serious motivator...now, why would Adam Dunn want to remain a cincinatti red?

The up and coming ball team?
Goodwill from the front office?
The way they treated Larkin?
The way they treated Casey?
The great ballpark?

Just pretend that Adam Dunn is a rational young man. Now, what incentive does Adam Dunn have to sign a 5 year deal with this club? Is there enough money to motivate that?

All fair questions. I know that if my son were a pro ballplayer what I'd advise him to do is figure out where he wants to play. What organization do you want to be a part of? Where do you think you can enjoy the most personal and team success? What city do you want to live in?

If he were lukewarm about his current situation, I'd urge him to play out his string there and let free agency take him where he wants to go.

That said, humans tend to abhor change. Familiarity can be quite enticing, especially when the only organization you've ever known comes to you and says "You're the chosen one who's going to lead this franchise back to glory."

REDREAD
01-18-2006, 11:35 AM
Just for arguments sake....

Just pretend that Adam Dunn is a rational young man. Now, what incentive does Adam Dunn have to sign a 5 year deal with this club? Is there enough money to motivate that?

I'd also like to add to your list:

The way they treated Graves. It was justified, but Dunn thought Graves was shafted.
Miley/DanO stealing his chair
Miley stealing his Graves Jersey and putting it on ebay.
The Reds sending his friend Kearns down to AAA.
The Reds constantly trying to unload his friend Jr.
No sign of contending in sight. No visible commitment to trying to get better.
He's being forced to play 1b, when he prefers OF.
The 2003 firesale.

I just can't see a LTC happening. I think he was being polite when he told Hal or that other writer that he'd sign longterm. Dunn is not going to be impressed when the new management spews all its messages about a new start. He's been through that already. He knows this is a franchise that's going nowhere, and chances are that his friends will be shipped out before his LTC expires if he signs one. I think the Reds have destroyed the relationship with Dunn.

djsauter
01-18-2006, 11:50 AM
Red's Final Offer: 7 Million and a couple of massage chairs. Take it or leave it.


No, seriously, I don't think Dunn is worth 9 million. Not at all. Give him up, trade him, something, if we use the money right we can get much better key players to help this team.

Flame me all you want, but I never have and never will like Dunn. Overrated.

kbrake
01-18-2006, 11:54 AM
Well Castinelli sure can not account for the past few years of Miley, DanO and even longer with Allen. However, I think Dunn would see it as a good gesture if DanO and Allen and possibly even Narron are fired right away. We want new ownership to start by locking up some of what we view as key players. I think the players might want to see DanO and Allen canned right away. If the new owenership makes some moves that maybe cheer these players up a little bit and right away the players take a likeing to Castinelli, it might make it easier to sign several of these guys long term.

westofyou
01-18-2006, 12:00 PM
Flame me all you want, but I never have and never will like Dunn. Overrated.
I wish the Reds had more overrated players.

CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
EXTRA BASE HITS >= 75
RUNS >= 100
RBI >= 100
WALKS >= 100
HOMERUNS >= 35

AGE YEAR AGE EBH R RBI BB HR
1 Adam Dunn 2005 25 77 107 101 114 40
2 Adam Dunn 2004 24 80 105 102 108 46

scounts22
01-18-2006, 12:05 PM
Call me crazy but I believe Dunn, Lopez and EE can be verry important to the future of this franchise. Let's keep'em, Play'em and Pay'em.

Amen.

registerthis
01-18-2006, 12:19 PM
I'm still trying to choke down snorts of laughter at the thought that Soriano could be worth $12 mil a year.

If he gets $12 mil, we all might as well pack up and go home.

kbrake
01-18-2006, 12:27 PM
Red's Final Offer: 7 Million and a couple of massage chairs. Take it or leave it.


No, seriously, I don't think Dunn is worth 9 million. Not at all. Give him up, trade him, something, if we use the money right we can get much better key players to help this team.

Flame me all you want, but I never have and never will like Dunn. Overrated.


Where would you like to spend that 9 million? I know you said key players so not sure what that means but everyone talks about how we need to save and use money on pitching, but come on the free agent market in baseball is an absolute joke. We want pitching we better learn to develop and keep the guys we have, Harang and Claussen.

flyer85
01-18-2006, 12:37 PM
if we use the money right we can get much better key players to help this team.like Womack, Aurilia and Hammond, I like the way you think.

Heath
01-18-2006, 12:40 PM
like Womack, Aurilia and Hammond, I like the way you think.

Yo, Ricardo you forgot this ---> :rolleyes:

flyer85
01-18-2006, 12:47 PM
Yo, Ricardo you forgot this ---> :rolleyes:Hey, DanO is getting better. At least he hasn't thrown boatloads of cash at a Wilson, Ortiz or Milton this offseason.:nono:

RedsManRick
01-18-2006, 01:08 PM
Hey, I've got an idea. Let's spend 9MM on Jeff Weaver instead. We could really use another #4 starter. Besides, guys with .400 OBP who hit 40 HR grow on trees. No need to pay them more than 4 or 5MM...

alexad
01-18-2006, 01:36 PM
I think you sit down with Dunn and work out something long term. He is worth what he is asking for no question. He has proven to be a power bat player.

Lopez needs another good year before I go offering more than what the Reds offered and I think it is too much. He has had one good year. Let him prove to be a good player before we over pay him.

KronoRed
01-18-2006, 01:54 PM
like Womack, Aurilia and Hammond, I like the way you think.
Hey Dan O :wave:

scounts22
01-18-2006, 02:37 PM
Hey Dan O :wave:

Exactly what I was thinking! :D

deltachi8
01-18-2006, 02:51 PM
5 Years, $50M. If he hits free agency, he will get $12M-$14M assuming he stays on the same track. Pony up som security, break it down how you want, but I think this is what it takes for a LTC for Dunn.

dfs
01-18-2006, 04:27 PM
"5 Years, $50M."

Make me laugh. If you're Adam Dunn, do you sign that contract? You are two years away from being out of this nuthouse and you sign up for five more years HERE? For essentially what your going to make in arbitration this year?

No way would Adam sign that. He would be a fool to do so.

Heath
01-18-2006, 04:34 PM
"5 Years, $50M."

Make me laugh. If your Adam Dunn, do you sign that contract? You are two years away from being out of this nuthouse and you sign up for five more years HERE? For essentially what your going to make in arbitration this year?

No way would Adam sign that. He would be a fool to do so.


I'm not saying its going to happen - and please don't think I'm some type of looney here - but what if Dunn steps off the boat and breaks a leg or blows an ACL. For security, one might take less. After all, we are ALL day-to-day. (except Krono :D)

If I am Adam Dunn, I think I'd pursue long-term. He doesn't seem like a guy who may think impratical.

TeamBoone
01-18-2006, 04:50 PM
Accidents happen, but Adam Dunn has certainly proven himself to be tough. In his career (including the minors), I only know of one injury... when he jammed his thumb late in the season a year or two ago.

deltachi8
01-18-2006, 05:02 PM
No way would Adam sign that. He would be a fool to do so.

No guarante he get the $8.95M in arbitration, he may, he may not. Essentially hwat your offering AD is the chance at $50M in guaranteed money that he will have banked before he is 30, when he can hit a second huge pay day.

Its a risk for both sides. Maybee it takes $55M, but I dont think it's laughable at all.

dfs
01-18-2006, 05:03 PM
Look up thread for the list of things the reds have done to alienate Dunn.
Risk aside, I doubt there is any way Adam signs that kind of deal.
A major housecleaning of the front office might help convince him, but by the time new ownership and new management is fully in place Adam's price will have gone up again.

deltachi8
01-18-2006, 05:12 PM
The up and coming ball team?
Goodwill from the front office?
The way they treated Larkin?
The way they treated Casey?
The great ballpark?



New ownership, a change in managemnt.

Was Larkin treated poorly? Truely? Seems like he couldn't/wouldn't make up his mind on retirement. He was also given a fat "thank you" contract that was above market value for him at the time.

What did the team do to treat Casey poorly? Make a sound financial and baseball trade? Send him to his hometown while doing so? Casey was not performing anymore to his contract, the Reds got what they could and in the process opened up playing time for Adam's play partner, Kearns.

Now is the time to find out if you can sign him long term. I think $50-$55M is reasonable for his talent. If he disagrees, then you have the one who gets traded. And by the way, no guarantee that trade is to Houston, Adam.

Sometimes its better to dance with the devil you know...

kbrake
01-18-2006, 05:32 PM
Good post Deltachi8, I really dont see why Dunn would be that upset, the whole thing with Miley and his chair and some other things I coulds see as annoying to Dunn, but nothing that 50 million wouldnt make feel better. Yeah he might be able to get more on the open market but thats two years away. This is 50 million now and guarenteed.

reds44
01-18-2006, 05:41 PM
Why the hell didn't they just give Felipe 3?

M2
01-18-2006, 05:59 PM
"5 Years, $50M."

Make me laugh. If you're Adam Dunn, do you sign that contract? You are two years away from being out of this nuthouse and you sign up for five more years HERE? For essentially what your going to make in arbitration this year?

No way would Adam sign that. He would be a fool to do so.

One thing you've got to balance is what's the net present value of $2 million today?

Dunn may or may not win at arbitration. More likely he and the Reds will settle in the middle. If he can get $10M today without a fight, then that's probably worth taking a little less in the ensuing years. How much less is a matter for accountants to ponder.

Say he was looking at $13M as his probable landing point (picked it out of hat, though it struck me as a solid sub-Vlad number). If he makes $10M in 2006, then maybe he goes down to $12M for the four seasons after that. That's five years, $58M to the Reds, which isn't a bad price for the guy's prime. Now maybe he figures the top of the market is going to pop by the time he gets there, and it might. And, obviously, if he doesn't like the organization or the town then there's no keeping him.

DannyB
01-18-2006, 06:47 PM
I would like to see him locked up long term,but I would hate to see Kearns or Pena traded away because of the $$

Nugget
01-18-2006, 07:01 PM
like Womack, Aurilia and Hammond, I like the way you think.

That only buys you one Felipe Lopez. Felipe is good but I don't think he plays 2B and SS as well as pitch in relief.

Why not give him $3 million - because he has had one good breakout season. So does that mean if he play well this year you pay him the same increase again!

blumj
01-18-2006, 08:55 PM
Why the hell didn't they just give Felipe 3?

There's no reason that they should. If they offer $2.15M, and he asks for $3M, an arbitrator can only choose to award one of those exact two figures, so they're guaranteed to not have to pay him more than $3M, and could wind up paying him a good deal less. Of course, they can still avoid arbitration if both sides agree to split the difference, more or less. But, giving in and just offering the max now wouldn't make any sense.

kbrake
01-18-2006, 08:55 PM
that or why not try and get him for 3 or 4 years at 5 million a piece then if he has an even better season we are net held hostage. I dont understand this whole wait theory with guys that we know are that good. Look at the situation it has us in with Dunn.

Edd Roush
01-18-2006, 10:11 PM
Just for arguments sake....

Why would Adam Dunn want to be a cincinnatti red?

I'm just curious. Dunn appears to be a reasonably bright athletic young man. Even the lowest of these offers insures that he pretty much already has all the money he needs for the rest of his life. So throw money out the window as a serious motivator...now, why would Adam Dunn want to remain a cincinatti red?

The up and coming ball team?
Goodwill from the front office?
The way they treated Larkin?
The way they treated Casey?
The great ballpark?

Just pretend that Adam Dunn is a rational young man. Now, what incentive does Adam Dunn have to sign a 5 year deal with this club? Is there enough money to motivate that?


Great discussion going on in this thread, a good read. However, it drives me absolutely insane when people can't spell Cincinnati correctly when it is on the screen at least once.

Seriously, signing Dunn long term would be an integral step in having this paying customer come through the gates. If Castellini can't start his regime without a legit positive, first step, there is no way for optimism to creep into my mind for this ballclub. If my favorite team isn't going to have pitching for a while, at least lock up a super star who will become the face of this franchise.

Plus, the common fan will come out much more frequently to see Dunn and Pena's moon shots if they know both of the players will be here for a while.

Come on Castellini, just give us some ray of hope that we can nearly unanimously agree is a positive first step. If Mike Brown can turn around the championshipless Bungles, Castellini can surely turn around a 5-time World Series champion.

Ron Madden
01-19-2006, 06:38 AM
that or why not try and get him for 3 or 4 years at 5 million a piece then if he has an even better season we are net held hostage. I dont understand this whole wait theory with guys that we know are that good. Look at the situation it has us in with Dunn.

I agree Kbrake,

O'Brien seems to be a poor judge of talent and has little or no vision into the future betterment of this franchise.