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View Full Version : Bill Hall: Fluke or the real deal?



TC81190
01-21-2006, 03:31 PM
Willy had a good year last year for the brew crew...but do you guys think he can repeat it again? Or, would you deal for him?

cincinnati chili
01-21-2006, 05:16 PM
Fluke. There is nothing in his major or MINOR league career that suggested this was coming.

Jaycint
01-21-2006, 06:24 PM
I don't have the numbers in front of me so I can't say for sure but it just seems like he constantly murders us. Of course lots of guys carrying bats have been doing that for about 5 years now.

GADawg
01-21-2006, 06:30 PM
if he can play 2nd base I'd deal for him!!!!

He seems pretty streaky rather than solid but I'd deal for him just to keep from having to face him...seems to always be one of those guys we can't get out when it's necessary.

pedro
01-21-2006, 06:35 PM
I don' think he'll OPS over .800 again, but if he can top .750 he's still pretty useful. He did great in A ball but then it appears the Brewers rushed him, maybe that stunted his growth as a player.

reds44
01-22-2006, 01:13 AM
He kills us.

Topcat
01-22-2006, 01:32 AM
[QUOTE=cincinnati chili]Fluke. There is nothing in his major or MINOR league career that suggested this was coming.[/QUOTE

I know this is an extreme case but Carlton Fisk was a better player in the Majors than he ever was in the minors. Better coaching less bus times seems to help some players do better.

KronoRed
01-22-2006, 01:36 AM
Fluke, but that one good year will convince some GM year after year that he's going to do it again.

RedsManRick
01-22-2006, 03:02 AM
If he plays the Reds 162 times a year he'd win the MVP and be on his way to Cooperstown.

I'd be shocked if he ever dupliates that power again. I think he has the potential to be a solid utility IF for the next 10 years. He plays pretty good D and isn't a complete hack. Has a bit of speed, but doesn't make great use of it. I'd expect a return to the .775 OPS level for the forseeable future.

remdog
01-22-2006, 04:36 AM
Hall is expected to fill in at most infield positions this year, much like Rich Aurilia. Forgetting about the age and salary difference, would you rather have Rich or Bill?

Personally, I think the Reds woudl be "richer" with Bill.

Rem

cincinnati chili
01-22-2006, 09:50 AM
I know this is an extreme case but Carlton Fisk was a better player in the Majors than he ever was in the minors. Better coaching less bus times seems to help some players do better.

I'm sure you didn't mean it, but this example is a tad misleading. Carlton Fisk was a top draft pick, then played high A ball at age 20 and destroyed the Midwest league's pitchers (1000+ OPS). It's true that he stagnated at Double-A at ages 21 and 22. But he at least was getting on base okay for a catcher (.321 and .333 OBP). Bill Hall, who also played Double AA at 21 had a .279 ON-BASE percentage.

The Brewers being the Brewers promoted him to the majors the very next year.

So the only major similarity I see between the two players is that they were both rushed to the majors before dominating either Triple-A or Double-A. But while Fisk was non-dominant, Hall flat-out sucked.

Generally speaking, guys who have zero prospect pedigree (Hall was a 6th round pick) and NEVER dominated in the minors (not only did Hall not dominate, but he only had a portion of one season where he was above-average), do not overnight figure out how to hit.

Bill Hall is a hacker, who developed a little more power last year. Pitchers will learn (some have already learned) to keep the ball off the fat part of the plate, and he'll get himself out most of the time.

Fisk career with minors' numbers (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/carlton-fisk.shtml)

Bill Hall career with minors' numbers (http://www.forecaster.ca/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?2850)

Chip R
01-22-2006, 09:56 AM
Bill Hall is a hacker, who developed a little more power last year. Pitchers will learn (some have already learned) to keep the ball off the fat part of the plate, and he'll get himself out most of the time.
Just not our pitchers, eh? ;)

Ravenlord
01-22-2006, 10:00 AM
look at Hall's P/PA last year. it spiked to over 4. i think he's turned a corner, but i don't he'll OPS 800 again. however i do think he'll be a consistant 270/320/440 middle infield sub with a plus glove at short and second, and a plust arm at third. can't ask for much more than that out of your reseriver infielder.

cincinnati chili
01-22-2006, 10:26 AM
look at Hall's P/PA last year. it spiked to over 4. i think he's turned a corner,


I didn't look at that, and that surprises me. Good call.

Ravenlord
01-22-2006, 10:44 AM
I didn't look at that, and that surprises me. Good call.
of interesting note in 2005:
Hall: 4.17 P/PA
Dunn: 4.25 P/PA

lollipopcurve
01-22-2006, 10:56 AM
More so than other "tools," patience at the plate can be learned.

Ravenlord
01-22-2006, 10:59 AM
More so than other "tools," patience at the plate can be learned.
sort of. it can be taught, but it's more difficult than any other tool/skill. you'll never go from being Randall Simon to even being Raul Ibanez. but you probably can go from being Simon to Aaron Boone.

Hall himself attributes it to learning how to control his swing enough to foul off low outside pitches and high inside fastballs as opposed to laying off of them.

RFS62
01-22-2006, 12:50 PM
Very impressive, Ravenlord.

lollipopcurve
01-22-2006, 01:57 PM
it can be taught, but it's more difficult than any other tool/skill.

Not sure I follow that. What makes it more difficult than hitting for average? Or hitting for power? Or, for that matter, running fast? Or throwing well?

cincinnati chili
01-22-2006, 02:34 PM
Not sure I follow that. What makes it more difficult than hitting for average? Or hitting for power? Or, for that matter, running fast? Or throwing well?

I THINK what he's saying is that Bill Hall hasn't necessarily become more selective, he's just developed the ability to get a piece of bad pitches that he swings at.

So that's not necessarily plate discipline, but improved bat speed, hand-eye coordination, or guessing what's coming.

Hall's walk rate is still subpar, but his strikeouts declined.

M2
01-22-2006, 04:01 PM
Hall doesn't handle RHPs very well (.319 OB last year). Probably the best you can expect from him is a Mariano Duncan type of career, with the same basic defensive deficiencies and some added pop.

A guy like that has his uses, but I wouldn't trade a whole lot to get him.

Ravenlord
01-22-2006, 04:34 PM
I THINK what he's saying is that Bill Hall hasn't necessarily become more selective, he's just developed the ability to get a piece of bad pitches that he swings at.

So that's not necessarily plate discipline, but improved bat speed, hand-eye coordination, or guessing what's coming.

Hall's walk rate is still subpar, but his strikeouts declined.
something like that. what he used to do with those pitches was try to drive them, and the result was usually swinging through it or popping up to the catcher. he still can't lay off of them, but can recognize them soon enough to keep his hands back and foul them off, rather than still try to hit them hard.

TC81190
06-12-2006, 08:18 PM
Just bringing this back up, I heard just a second ago Hall's HR total during the game broadcast so here's the numbers.

279 AVG/329 OBP/617 SLG, 15 HR, 15 2B, 4 3B

The OBP isn't too terribly impressive, nor is the IsoD, but check out his Slugging &. That is VERY, VERY impressive.

cincinnati chili
06-13-2006, 01:21 AM
Fluke. There is nothing in his major or MINOR league career that suggested this was coming.
The numbers must be miscalculated.

I'm NEVER wrong.

pedro
06-13-2006, 02:57 AM
I don' think he'll OPS over .800 again, but if he can top .750 he's still pretty useful. He did great in A ball but then it appears the Brewers rushed him, maybe that stunted his growth as a player.

spot on again I see. ;)



areer: Batting | Fielding
SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

2006 Mil 56 205 39 56 15 4 15 34 16 58 2 2 .273 .326 .605 .931