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View Full Version : Sabo: (Homer) Bailey could pitch for Reds now



harangatang
01-23-2006, 11:58 AM
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060122/SPT04/601220429/1071/SPT04

The Reds can't afford any more of the haplessness of the past 20 years when it comes to finding and developing starting pitchers.

They have to decide, and decide quickly, whether the ways of Reds general manager Dan O'Brien are going to work.

O'Brien's decision to throw money Eric Milton's way last year looks bad in light of what the numbers analysts were prophesying at the time: a fly-ball pitcher in a bandbox ballpark is a bad combination. O'Brien defied the science of those prophecies, took a flyer on Milton and got knocked out of the park.

On the other hand, hot-shot pitching prospect Homer Bailey - projected as a bona fide No. 1 future starter by everybody who has seen him - has remained healthy. That's no small thing for a minor-league system that has done wonders for orthopedic surgeons specializing in shoulder and elbow operations.

"Bailey could pitch here (Great American) right now," says former Reds star Chris Sabo, now working in the Reds' minor leagues.

"He is imperial," says Sabo, inflating his chest to show what he means. "Isn't that what you want? Twenty-five guys like that? Nine of them on the field and the other 16 believing they should be?"

The emphasis, of course, is on the "could." As in "could" be pitching here right now.

savafan
01-23-2006, 12:14 PM
If Bailey comes into spring training and blows major league hitters away, I have no problem with him going north with the big club. I think you have to take your best 25 guys, no matter who they may be. The Braves did a pretty good job developing young pitchers at the major league level in the late 80s/early 90s. Sure, Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Millwood, Smith...they all took their knocks, but never lost their confidence.

Unassisted
01-23-2006, 12:20 PM
I saw this article and declined to post it because I thought the opinion was so without merit. Just because Homer "looks imperial" doesn't mean ML hitters are going to be fooled by his pitches. His ml numbers were good, not great. That tells me he needs to prove himself, rather than be rushed to the majors.

RFS62
01-23-2006, 12:55 PM
Holy crap.

westofyou
01-23-2006, 12:56 PM
Christopher Gruler has a breaking ball and changeup better than Tom Seaver, says Johnny Bench.

Heath
01-23-2006, 01:00 PM
The rate that this field management deals with rookies, Homer Bailey's gonna be 34 years old before he even makes the big club.

Caveat Emperor
01-23-2006, 01:07 PM
The rate that this field management deals with rookies, Homer Bailey's gonna be 34 years old before he even makes the big club.

I imagine when your AA rotation has more stitches in their arms than the baseballs they throw -- that tends to make you a little gunshy.

lollipopcurve
01-23-2006, 01:09 PM
Frickin Sabo. Look, I like that he evaluates Homer as a guy with confidence and presence. But Homer hasn't been allowed to throw more than 75 pitches in a professional game, facing low A hitters. Put him in GABP = letting your teenager do whatever he/she wants. Let's be responsible here -- he ain't ready.

I'm concerned that Castellini talks about being impatient with the minor leagues. If that translates into him wanting the best prospects rushed, he'll strip mine down to zero prospects in a year and a half. Patience IS required, Bob.

Chip R
01-23-2006, 01:12 PM
Good thing he's not a pitching coach in the minors.

KronoRed
01-23-2006, 01:13 PM
Lets rush em!

What's the worst that could happen? ;)

GoReds
01-23-2006, 01:17 PM
Christopher Gruler has a breaking ball and changeup better than Tom Seaver, says Johnny Bench.

Isn't that like saying Bailey has a better fastball than Tim Wakefield?

savafan
01-23-2006, 02:26 PM
Lets rush em!

What's the worst that could happen? ;)

I hope it can't get any worse than what we've seen the last ten years.

dougdirt
01-23-2006, 05:19 PM
No way is Bailey ready for the majors. He walks way to many people, wouldnt make it past 5 innings and for the love of God, the boy can not get himself out of jams. He has 1 plus pitch right now, and its his fastball. He has a few other average pitches, but average pitches in the big leagues get taken 400 feet. The kid will be 19 at the start of the season, no way he is ready.

Doc. Scott
01-23-2006, 05:28 PM
Can someone please tell Chris Sabo the story of David Clyde?

westofyou
01-23-2006, 05:29 PM
Can someone please tell Chris Sabo the story of David Clyde?
Dan O'Brien should be able to.

His dad was the Texas GM who called up Clyde.

dougdirt
01-23-2006, 05:38 PM
David Clyde....that was the one I was thinking of...kept thinking of Mark Fydrich for some reason, but knew that wasnt the right guy. Thanks for that one Doc.

Doc. Scott
01-23-2006, 05:41 PM
Dan O'Brien should be able to.

His dad was the Texas GM who called up Clyde.

Well, geez, when is O'Brien going to have the time to do THAT?

SteelSD
01-23-2006, 06:10 PM
"Chris Pittaro is the best rookie I've ever seen." - Sparky Anderson 1985

MWM
01-23-2006, 06:23 PM
But Chris played the game and knows baseball better than any of you innernit chat geeks.

Little Alex
01-23-2006, 06:28 PM
I think "homer" is the operative word here when it comes to Sabo's comment, and it has nothing to do with anyone's first name. ;)

marcshoe
01-24-2006, 12:13 AM
"Bailey could pitch here (Great American) right now," says former Reds star Chris Sabo, now working in the Reds' minor leagues.


I agree with this quote completely.

Of course, whether he can pitch at Great American once the season starts and other teams show up is another matter entirely. :evil:

Sorry. It's late and I need sleep.

Heath
01-24-2006, 12:14 AM
I could pitch at GABP.

Except for the stupid Cincinnati cops who chase me.

cincyinco
01-24-2006, 04:51 AM
I am with you Lollipop - worried about what the state of the farm is going to look like with BCast's comments about being impatient, not being impressed with amount of money put in and the results... one can only hope that drafting and developing elite homegrown talent is not skimped on, and we don't take on a KC style of drafting... sigh.

As for my take on Homer being ready.. as its relivant to the thread... He needs to prove something at every level of the way for me before he's called up permanently. A cup of coffe in 07 if he's ready isn't something I'm against.. but '06 he should never spend time above AA. Challenge him, don't coddle him. But don't rush him either.

Ravenlord
01-24-2006, 07:47 AM
he hasn't even proved consistancy in Low A, let alone domination.

cincyinco
01-24-2006, 08:03 AM
he hasn't even proved consistancy in Low A, let alone domination.

could that be due to tandem system?

could that be due to his working on development of secondary pitches per reds brass?

could that be due to knee/shoulder issues?

these are important questions to ask. Not trying to make excuses.. it is what it is.. but i dont know if factors such as these can be completely ignored or dismissed.

Ravenlord
01-24-2006, 08:09 AM
could that be due to tandem system? according to Homer, probably.


could that be due to his working on development of secondary pitches per reds brass?that wouldn't neccessarily skew his numbers as bad as they were. his control disappeared, and that probably has more to do with nerves and tandemness.


could that be due to knee/shoulder issues?not sure. didn't he have some soreness in his arm in August?

cincyinco
01-24-2006, 08:13 AM
according to Homer, probably.

And while I understand reasons/theories for implementing the tandem system, i'm not sold on it, and I can see validity in Homer's opinion on it.



that wouldn't neccessarily skew his numbers as bad as they were. his control disappeared, and that probably has more to do with nerves and tandemness.

Are you sure? if you're limited to 100 pitches, of which management tells you 1/2 of which have to be a changeup(your weakest pitch), you dont think that might skew your numbers a bit? Not saying this is exactly the case with Homer, but I was under impression he was told to throw the change, and throw it often. Am I incorrect?


not sure. didn't he have some soreness in his arm in August?

Not sure about the timing of the issues, partly why I asked... but I know he was coddled, and IMHO, rightly so. Question is how much of an effect did this have on performance, and I'm not sure we can ever know the answer to that.

Ravenlord
01-24-2006, 08:16 AM
Are you sure? if you're limited to 100 pitches, of which management tells you 1/2 of which have to be a changeup(your weakest pitch), you dont think that might skew your numbers a bit?i've never read anywhere about telling a pitcher to throw a secondary pitcher X number of times...the usual standard is to throw it when you normally would given the situation, or in the case you're locating the fastball really well, throw it instead of the breaking ball. but then again, this was a team led by a guy with a bunch of binders...




Question is how much of an effect did this have on performance, and I'm not sure we can ever know the answer to that.
i would think since it would leave him fresher, it would have more a positive impact. i remember the thing he complained about specifically with the tandem was being the guy who had to come in second, and that he felt like he always got lit up doing that.

cincyinco
01-24-2006, 08:19 AM
i've never read anywhere about telling a pitcher to throw a secondary pitcher X number of times...the usual standard is to throw it when you normally would given the situation, or in the case you're locating the fastball really well, throw it instead of the breaking ball. but then again, this was a team led by a guy with a bunch of binders...

Ack, see my edit.. ;) I was under impression he was told to throw the change up and throw it often... despite the situation... perhaps i'm wrong or misinformed..



i would think since it would leave him fresher, it would have more a positive impact. i remember the thing he complained about specifically with the tandem was being the guy who had to come in second, and that he felt like he always got lit up doing that.

unless he was still injured, hiding it, feeling pain.. etc. So my point being perhaps he wasn't always really "fresh" as you put it.

Ravenlord
01-24-2006, 08:20 AM
unless he was still injured, hiding it, feeling pain.. etc. So my point being perhaps he wasn't always really "fresh" as you put it.
probably something we'll never know unless he goes under the knife soon.

cincyinco
01-24-2006, 08:22 AM
probably something we'll never know unless he goes under the knife soon.

dear lord, if that happens i think i will cry.. not sure if i can handle another "top pitching prospect" of ours lost to shoulder woes...

Ravenlord
01-24-2006, 08:24 AM
dear lord, if that happens i think i will cry.. not sure if i can handle another "top pitching prospect" of ours lost to shoulder woes...
i'm thinking TJ, cause i'm pretty sure it was elbow soreness (possibly tendonitis) he was having issues with.

cincyinco
01-24-2006, 08:34 AM
i'm thinking TJ, cause i'm pretty sure it was elbow soreness (possibly tendonitis) he was having issues with.

Meh.. TJ I could handle.. its not as much a death sentence these days.. shoulder problems are what really concern me, ala Gardner, Howington, and the countless other prospects who've been derailed in our org.

lollipopcurve
01-24-2006, 09:23 AM
He had some early minor problem with his shoulder, but bounced back just fine. He was coming off minor knee surgery over the winter, and this delayed him just a little in the spring.