View Full Version : Stats Matter In GM Search

02-01-2006, 07:16 AM

Stats matter in Reds' GM search

By Paul Schaffer
Dayton Daily News
Produce magnate Robert Castellini, the new Reds owner, made quite a statement when he fired General Manager Dan O'Brien on Jan. 23.
But most crucial is Castellini's next statement: the hiring of a new GM.
From the announced list of candidates, Twins assistant GM Wayne Krivsky seems to be the best fit.
Minnesota has had success in recent years in the area the Reds need the most help: player development. The low-payroll Twins also have been competitive in the AL Central, another huge plus. Let's face it, the Reds will never be able to outspend the major-media market teams for top free agents.
So Krivsky would be OK, but a better choice is out there: Paul DePodesta.
If you've read Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, you know DePodesta, the former Dodgers GM. He was Oakland A's GM Billy Beane's top lieutenant, dragging the team's scouts, who focus on often subjective notions like "tools," into the 21st century with his laptop and his sabermetric baseball analysis that focuses on performance data.
With his approach, Beane consistently keeps his team in playoff contention with a small payroll.
In 2004, DePodesta tried to bring these ideas to the Dodgers, but he got ripped in the L.A. media, especially when he dared to trade catcher Paul Lo Duca, a fan favorite. He ended up fired at the end of 2005, when the injury-ravaged Dodgers finished with a 71-91 record after making the playoffs in 2004.
The unfathomable aspect of baseball is why the Moneyball model for success isn't more popular. The National Football League is noted for being a copycat league. Teams often embrace new strategies in their efforts to stay competitive.
Logically, other teams should try to emulate Beane's blueprint. Instead, the baseball establishment is so resistant to change that Beane is called "lucky" and his brethren are vilified as "statheads."
Well, here's one stathead who wants a DePodesta, or at least a Krivsky, for the Reds. I don't want the produce man to hand us a lemon.
Contact Paul Schaffer at pschaffer@coxohio.com

Ron Madden
02-01-2006, 07:37 AM
IMHO, This one article by Schaffer beats the heck outta anything Hal has written all year.

02-01-2006, 08:01 AM
Very well done :clap:

I wonder if they have even given Depo a call.

02-01-2006, 08:40 AM
I know it wouldn't make a bit of difference, but is there anyway to email RCast's office and suggest he look in to DePo? I imagine if we all did it, he would at least hear about it. Maybe...:dunno:

02-01-2006, 03:17 PM
The most telling bit of Moneyball was in the afterword, when Lewis was writing about the response to it within the game. Without looking it up for the exact wording, it went something like: "If someone exposed trade secrets of your most efficient competitor, wouldn't you want to check it out? Even if you're skeptical, you look at it just to see. But not in baseball. Baseball people bragged about not having read the book."

It reminds me of airlines -- Southwest has made a lot more money in recent years than any of the biggies like United or Delta, but those airlines consistently acted like they'd rather go out of business than be like Southwest. I don't get it.

02-01-2006, 05:40 PM
As long as Paul Depodesiny can sign Lou Piniella to the Manager position by Mid 2006 to Winter 2006-2007...I am fine with him...