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View Full Version : BA's Early 2006 Draft Preview - Has Reds picking....



jmcclain19
02-02-2006, 02:46 AM
....a HS LHP

The Reds have the 8th pick in the 2006 draft

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/2006draft/060202firstround.html

I know pitching is what the Reds need most, but if Matt LaPorta repeats his 2005 season and the Reds let him slide by, it's going to look mighty dumb in a few years, IMO.

If Ian Kennedy slides and is available, the Reds need to make sure that kid goes nowhere else but Cincinnati


1. Andrew Miller, lhp, U. of North Carolina
Six-foot-7 lefty was draftís highest unsigned pick from 2003, primed to become highest pick this year.

2. Drew Stubbs, of, U. of Texas
Best athlete in the draft has obvious physical tools, but must learn to curb high strikeout totals.

3. Max Scherzer, rhp, U. of Missouri
Devil Rays own this pick and Scherzer would be made to order for a team in need of a power college arm.

4. Jordan Walden, rhp, Mansfield (Texas) HS
When Walden was clocked at 99 mph last summer, he moved to the head of the í06 high school class.

5. Daniel Bard, rhp, U. of North Carolina
Reasserted himself last summer by leading Cape Cod in strikeouts, after inconsistent sophomore year.

6. Chris Marrero, 3b, Monsignor Pace HS, Miami
Best high school position prospect can swing bat for average and power, and is a solid defender.

7. Ian Kennedy, rhp, U. of Southern California
The Dodgers need some good local PR and drafting a proven hometown talent might be a prudent move.

8. Brett Anderson, lhp, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
The draftís most polished prep arm has been schooled by his dad, Oklahoma State coach Frank Anderson.

9. Kyle Drabek, rhp, The Woodlands (Texas) HS
The son of ex-big leaguer Doug Drabek has a 96 mph fastball and his fatherís trademark hammer curve.

10. Evan Longoria, 3b/ss, Long Beach State U.
A late bloomer, he came of age last summer in Cape Cod League, leading circuit in home runs and RBIs.

11. Matt LaPorta, 1b/3b, U. of Florida
Led NCAA Division I hitters with 26 home runs a year ago and is the draftís premier college power hitter.

12. Matt Latos, rhp, Coconut Creek HS, Margate, Fla.
Teams looking for a signable high school arm with plenty of upside will bear down on the 6-foot-5 Latos.

13. Wes Hodges, 3b, Georgia Tech
Steady across the board with developing power potential, Hodges should move quickly in pro ranks.

14. Brandon Morrow, rhp, U. of California
Morrow can match any college pitcher in physical ability, but teams will be wary of his 0-1, 9.36 í05 record.

15. Dallas Buck, rhp, Oregon State U.
With three first-rounders, Nationals will target pitching with Oregon State ace sure to be in their mix.

16. Chris Tillman, rhp, Fountain Valley (Calif.) HS
Loose and projectable at 6-foot-5 and 190 pounds, Tillman enters 2006 as Californiaís best prep talent.

17. Kyle McCulloch, rhp, U. of Texas
Smooth, polished college pitcher with three averages pitches has gone 19-4 in two years at Texas.

18. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, U. of Nebraska
A Division II transfer, he was the most obscure player a year ago of all this yearís potential first-rounders.

19. Dellin Betances, rhp, Grand Street HS, New York
The skyís the limit for the 6-foot-9, 215-pound Betances, whose fastball has been clocked at 96 mph.

20. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Halifax County HS, South Boston, Va.
With a lightning-quick arm and 98 mph fastball, Jeffress reminds scouts of a young Dwight Gooden.

21. Cody Johnson, of/1b, Mosley HS, Panama City, Fla.
Yankees pick in this spot and Johnsonís lefthanded power would be an intriguing fit in Yankee Stadium.

22. Brad Lincoln, rhp, U. of Houston
His size (6-0, 195) may be an issue, but his 90-95 mph boring fastball and 82-84 power curve arenít.

23. Mark Melancon, rhp, U. of Arizona
Versatile righthander was used in relief his first two years at Arizona and moves to rotation this year.

24. Hank Conger, c, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS
Braves have big interest in Congerís huge lefthanded power, though his defensive skills need work.

25. Jared Hughes, rhp, Long Beach State U.
Hughes hopes to join most recent two Dirtbag aces, Jered Weaver and Cesar Ramos, in first round.

26. Greg Reynolds, rhp, Stanford U.
His ordinary 6-4, 5.76 record in two years at Stanford masks interest in his size, stuff and upside.

27. Chris Parmelee, 1b/of, Chino Hills (Calif.) HS
The nationís premier prep hitting prospect could climb this list if a team places a premium on his bat.

28. Jason Donald, ss, U. of Arizona
Might be the best middle infielder in the draft, but heís shown only marginal improvement in two years.

29. Blair Erickson, rhp, UC Irvine
Nationís premier closer used 96 mph fastball to earn 27 saves, post 103 Kís in 72 innings in í04-05.

30. Kasey Kiker, lhp, Russell County HS, Seale, Ala.
The ace pitcher on the nationís top high school team has a 94 mph fastball, best among prep lefties.

Jpup
02-02-2006, 03:33 AM
College pitcher. please. :beerme:

BoydsOfSummer
02-02-2006, 03:47 AM
10. Eva Longoria, 3b/ss, Long Beach State U.
A late bloomer, she came of age last summer in Cape Cod League, leading circuit in home runs and RBIs.


I WANT HER!




http://www.bostonnightclubnews.com/images/misc/temp/evalongoriadesperatehousewives.jpg

KronoRed
02-02-2006, 07:21 AM
No more high school arms :(

ochre
02-02-2006, 09:42 AM
what round will the Reds draft Loo in this year? :)

Red Leader
02-02-2006, 09:48 AM
I WANT HER!




http://www.bostonnightclubnews.com/images/misc/temp/evalongoriadesperatehousewives.jpg


Amen. Take Eva (and, I guess, her brother, too)

lollipopcurve
02-02-2006, 10:10 AM
Whatever. In a few months there will be much better information for the team -- and for us -- to use in evaluating these kids.

At first glance, the positional talent looks slim, so I'm leaning pitcher. HS or college is not a huge deal to me.

Puffy
02-02-2006, 10:28 AM
I WANT HER!




http://www.bostonnightclubnews.com/images/misc/temp/evalongoriadesperatehousewives.jpg

Damn you!! That was going to be my joke - stupid second to the party crap!

westofyou
02-02-2006, 10:29 AM
HS or college is not a huge deal to me.

It is to me, with pitching at a premium price wise it behooves the Reds to stockpile some arms that are closer to the show. Impact arms will be what pushes this team above the mean, but waiting 5 years to see if a guy can make it is not acceptable IMO.

Kc61
02-02-2006, 10:33 AM
It is to me, with pitching at a premium price wise it behooves the Reds to stockpile some arms that are closer to the show. Impact arms will be what pushes this team above the mean, but waiting 5 years to see if a guy can make it is not acceptable IMO.

Problem is that at pick number 8 the top college arms are gone. So you can take the second tier college arms or the first tier high school arms.

In fact, BA list has college arm going 7 and then next college arm is at 14. So should Reds overdraft someone by 6 or 7 slots because he is older?

westofyou
02-02-2006, 10:36 AM
Problem is that at pick number 8 the top college arms are gone. So you can take the second tier college arms or the first tier high school arms.
Then best position player, a HS pick is just a Bond buy at this time, this team needs a quick sure thing, talent can be turned into more talent, but waiting for the the perfect player for five years is just another five years of reverse marketing.

Kc61
02-02-2006, 10:39 AM
Then best position player, a HS pick is just a Bond buy at this time, this team needs a quick sure thing, talent can be turned into more talent, but waiting for the the perfect player for five years is just another five years of reverse marketing.

But is there a "quick sure thing" at pick number 8? According to BA there is no college arm after pick 7 worthy of the top ten.

My view is that you can load up on college arms in the draft without picking one in the first round. With number 8 pick, you need to go with the best talent. Even if it is not a pitcher at all.

M2
02-02-2006, 10:56 AM
But is there a "quick sure thing" at pick number 8? According to BA there is no college arm after pick 7 worthy of the top ten.

My view is that you can load up on college arms in the draft without picking one in the first round. With number 8 pick, you need to go with the best talent. Even if it is not a pitcher at all.

That will change in the coming months. If Dallas Buck has another big season you can expect him to join the top 10. I also expect the draft will work out so that one of Miller, Bard, Kennedy or Scherzer drops to the #8.

For instance, I don't for a second think the Dodgers would take Kennedy. IMO they'll be hot for Chris Tillman if he has a big season.

I'll echo what WOY said, the Reds deserved a lashing if they draft a HS with that #8 pick. You've got to be aware of where you are and what the draft offers. The Reds need to find an arm who can be an effective starter in the majors by 2009 and the quality of this draft lies in college pitching. There will be a college arm who fits the team's needs available on the #8 pick. The key is to identify him.

Kennedy's my pick as of the moment. I'm with jmc, if Kennedy's there on #8 the Reds don't need to do any thinking, just draft him.

REDREAD
02-02-2006, 11:07 AM
But is there a "quick sure thing" at pick number 8? According to BA there is no college arm after pick 7 worthy of the top ten.

My view is that you can load up on college arms in the draft without picking one in the first round. With number 8 pick, you need to go with the best talent. Even if it is not a pitcher at all.


I agree with you there. If there's no "sure thing" college arm at #7, you take the best player available, particularly if it's close to a "sure thing" positional player.

I agree with M2 that by the time the draft rolls around, there may be a college arm worth taking at #8, but I don't think it should be written in stone to take the best college arm in the first round.

Historically, the Reds have found a few college pitchers in rounds after #1 (Williamson, Sullivan,.. I forget if Browning was a #1 pick, but he was a college guy).

lollipopcurve
02-02-2006, 12:12 PM
I agree with you there. If there's no "sure thing" college arm at #7, you take the best player available, particularly if it's close to a "sure thing" positional player.

I agree with M2 that by the time the draft rolls around, there may be a college arm worth taking at #8, but I don't think it should be written in stone to take the best college arm in the first round.


I agree. If I'm the SD and looking at the #8 pick, I have my crosscheckers looking at the top 5-6 college arms and the top 2-3 high school arms. Then, the consensus top 3-4 bats at each level.

missionhockey21
02-02-2006, 01:37 PM
It would be great if Kennedy falls to us. Strikeout machine with a great curve and college level results, that's my kind of guy.

M2
02-02-2006, 01:50 PM
I agree. If I'm the SD and looking at the #8 pick, I have my crosscheckers looking at the top 5-6 college arms and the top 2-3 high school arms. Then, the consensus top 3-4 bats at each level.

It's fine to check those things, but unless my crosscheckers offer to saw off a limb should this pick go wrong then I'd be taking a college pitcher.

I don't usually take this sort of stance on the draft, but with this draft class and given the Reds' needs, any other course looks to me like pure insanity.

Information is always good to have, just don't overthink things. This draft will line up to give the Reds what they need and they need to take it.

lollipopcurve
02-02-2006, 02:31 PM
This draft will line up to give the Reds what they need and they need to take it.

You may be right. I'm just a BPA guy, and I think the best HS arms are undervalued these days. I see draft choices as long-term investments that should not be tied to any immediate needs on the major league club. In my book, it's draft serves the minor league system, minor league system serves major league club. If you know what I mean.

However, I am sympathetic to the notion that in their system the Reds lack pitchers in that 21-23 age range (which results from several years in not finding any pitching at all in the draft), therefore it might be a good idea to get a top-notch college pitcher who will likely have immediate value as a prospect at least.

Johnny Footstool
02-02-2006, 03:01 PM
You may be right. I'm just a BPA guy, and I think the best HS arms are undervalued these days. I see draft choices as long-term investments that should not be tied to any immediate needs on the major league club. In my book, it's draft serves the minor league system, minor league system serves major league club. If you know what I mean.

However, I am sympathetic to the notion that in their system the Reds lack pitchers in that 21-23 age range (which results from several years in not finding any pitching at all in the draft), therefore it might be a good idea to get a top-notch college pitcher who will likely have immediate value as a prospect at least.

In terms of pitching, the Reds minor league system hasn't been serving the major league club for a long time. Isn't that at mostly because so many of the young HS arms the Reds picked in the early rounds didn't pan out?

M2
02-02-2006, 03:26 PM
You may be right. I'm just a BPA guy, and I think the best HS arms are undervalued these days. I see draft choices as long-term investments that should not be tied to any immediate needs on the major league club. In my book, it's draft serves the minor league system, minor league system serves major league club. If you know what I mean.

However, I am sympathetic to the notion that in their system the Reds lack pitchers in that 21-23 age range (which results from several years in not finding any pitching at all in the draft), therefore it might be a good idea to get a top-notch college pitcher who will likely have immediate value as a prospect at least.

IMO, given the rate at which highly drafted HS arms fail, it's impossible to undervalue them. I'd have a much different take if the Reds weren't drafting until 20 or so picks were off the board or if the system was crazy deep like the Twins. But at #8? Don't whiz on the electric fence.

WVRed
02-02-2006, 03:51 PM
It would be great if Kennedy falls to us. Strikeout machine with a great curve and college level results, that's my kind of guy.

Agreed, USC has a tendency to produce great pitchers, and Kennedy is no exception.

MikeS21
02-02-2006, 04:12 PM
I find these early mock draft exercises to be unreliable. The top ten could change a lot, due to injury, poor years, and other unforseen events. There are college arms that may appear as second tier right now, who could - and will - move up.

At the #8 pick, there's no reason the Reds can't snag one of the top five college arms. The question remains whether or not the new GM is willing to buck conventional scouting wisdom and pass on the mythical superstar coming out of HS.