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M2
02-04-2006, 03:16 PM
Looks like BP's got the PECOTA forecasts up.

Anyone feel like sharing the Reds' projections?

westofyou
02-04-2006, 03:35 PM
Last First Year TM LG AGE W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA EqERA EqH9 EqBB9 EqSO9 EqHR9 VORP WXRL Break Improve Collapse Attrition


Harang Aaron 2006 CIN MLB 28 11 11 0 31 31 196.3 201 55 142 24 43% .292 15 1.30 4.19 4.48 4.28 9.1 2.3 6.0 1.1 23.4 3.9 13% 58% 10% 2%
Coffey Todd 2006 CIN MLB 25 3 4 4 70 0 76.0 82 18 44 7 51% .298 -4 1.32 3.97 4.21 4.34 9.6 2.0 4.8 0.8 11.7 0.8 35% 54% 12% 12%
Claussen 2006 CIN MLB 27 9 11 0 29 27 163.0 171 57 117 24 40% .292 9 1.40 4.69 5.04 4.82 9.3 2.9 5.9 1.3 11.2 2.3 19% 55% 10% 1%
Milton Eric 2006 CIN MLB 30 9 12 0 32 28 171.3 184 50 111 29 37% .285 4 1.36 4.83 5.11 4.97 9.5 2.4 5.3 1.5 9.5 2.2 44% 78% 7% 5%
Williams 2006 CIN MLB 27 7 10 0 31 23 140.7 149 53 95 20 43% .291 3 1.44 4.83 5.15 5.04 9.4 3.1 5.6 1.3 7.2 1.7 14% 48% 16% 2%
Germano Justin 2006 CIN MLB 23 7 10 0 29 22 139.7 153 41 92 20 46% .299 7 1.38 4.81 5.00 4.94 9.7 2.4 5.5 1.2 6.8 1.6 21% 68% 1% 0%
Weathers 2006 CIN MLB 36 3 4 7 57 0 64.7 66 25 47 7 50% .295 -7 1.41 4.34 4.68 4.98 9.1 3.2 5.9 1.0 5.8 0.5 19% 37% 36% 20%
Burns Mike 2006 CIN MLB 27 2 3 3 47 1 49.3 49 14 35 7 43% .278 -2 1.27 4.20 4.45 4.78 8.9 2.3 5.9 1.3 5.2 0.5 48% 71% 17% 39%
Wagner Ryan 2006 CIN MLB 23 2 3 2 40 1 49.7 51 22 40 4 55% .311 4 1.45 4.24 4.53 4.82 9.0 3.6 6.7 0.7 5.0 0.4 34% 60% 10% 31%
Belisle Matt 2006 CIN MLB 26 3 4 2 48 3 70.7 77 25 45 8 53% .304 -5 1.43 4.57 4.77 4.99 9.6 2.9 5.3 0.9 4.5 0.5 33% 60% 10% 15%
Mercker Kent 2006 CIN MLB 38 2 2 2 39 0 36.3 38 14 27 5 44% .294 -7 1.42 4.41 4.85 4.66 9.3 3.2 6.2 1.2 3.7 0.3 10% 19% 61% 29%
Bailey Homer 2006 CIN MLB 20 5 8 0 26 18 108.3 98 76 101 11 46% .292 11 1.61 5.02 5.30 5.26 8.1 5.8 7.7 0.9 2.4 0.9 45% 78% 7% 0%
Shackelford 2006 CIN MLB 29 1 2 1 46 0 36.0 39 17 22 5 48% .296 -15 1.55 5.02 5.51 5.86 9.7 3.8 5.1 1.2 0.7 0.0 13% 27% 49% 41%
Wilson Paul 2006 CIN MLB 33 5 8 0 30 17 112.7 128 37 67 18 43% .297 -6 1.46 5.23 5.50 5.67 10.1 2.8 4.9 1.4 0.6 0.7 13% 42% 26% 9%
Hancock Josh 2006 CIN MLB 28 2 3 1 29 4 49.0 55 17 28 7 46% .298 -13 1.47 5.14 5.38 6.48 10.0 2.9 4.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 18% 39% 32% 41%
Guevara Carlos 2006 CIN MLB 24 2 3 1 27 4 51.7 55 25 41 10 43% .292 -4 1.54 5.30 5.99 5.35 9.4 4.0 6.5 1.7 -0.1 0.1 11% 44% 21% 18%
Graman Alex 2006 CIN MLB 28 4 6 0 28 12 82.3 86 42 61 11 47% .299 -3 1.56 5.25 5.53 5.50 9.3 4.3 6.1 1.2 -0.4 0.4 18% 48% 16% 1%
Ramirez 2006 CIN MLB 23 7 10 0 38 25 141.0 168 36 74 23 48% .304 -4 1.45 5.26 5.56 5.41 10.6 2.1 4.3 1.4 -0.5 0.8 20% 64% 2% 0%
Simpson Allan 2006 CIN MLB 28 2 3 1 46 2 47.7 47 33 46 7 39% .302 -3 1.67 5.51 5.93 5.95 8.7 5.7 8.0 1.3 -1.2 -0.1 26% 50% 23% 22%
Hudson Luke 2006 CIN MLB 29 4 7 0 30 13 89.3 94 43 60 14 40% .287 -8 1.54 5.42 5.74 6.01 9.4 4.0 5.6 1.4 -1.3 0.3 16% 44% 27% 18%
Gardner Richie 2006 CIN MLB 24 5 9 0 27 19 119.0 137 43 67 16 55% .303 -3 1.50 5.41 5.54 5.66 10.2 3.0 4.6 1.2 -3.6 0.4 16% 52% 11% 0%
Serrano Elio 2006 CIN MLB 27 2 4 0 24 5 51.0 60 20 33 12 41% .295 -14 1.57 6.17 6.50 7.00 10.4 3.3 5.4 2.0 -3.9 -0.3 23% 50% 25% 27%
Standridge 2006 CIN MLB 27 3 5 1 40 6 70.3 82 36 42 9 52% .311 -14 1.66 5.62 6.02 5.87 10.3 4.2 4.9 1.1 -4.0 -0.2 16% 47% 34% 8%
Valentine 2006 CIN MLB 26 2 3 1 45 2 47.3 50 37 38 9 39% .296 -18 1.83 6.40 6.94 6.81 9.4 6.5 6.6 1.6 -5.1 -0.5 24% 52% 23% 19%
Chick Travis 2006 CIN MLB 22 5 10 0 24 22 121.7 132 59 84 24 38% .286 -1 1.57 5.78 6.17 5.87 9.6 4.0 5.7 1.7 -5.7 0.3 25% 66% 5% 0%
Basham Robert 2006 CIN MLB 26 4 8 0 29 16 103.0 128 25 51 19 50% .308 -9 1.49 5.73 6.03 6.01 11.0 2.0 4.1 1.6 -5.9 0.0 26% 61% 10% 1%
Nelson Bubba 2006 CIN MLB 24 2 4 1 28 4 52.3 62 26 34 11 39% .301 -16 1.68 6.35 6.91 6.51 10.6 4.1 5.3 1.9 -5.9 -0.5 12% 44% 22% 11%
Hall Josh 2006 CIN MLB 25 5 9 0 26 19 114.7 133 50 64 16 51% .305 -7 1.60 5.74 5.95 6.02 10.3 3.6 4.6 1.2 -7.6 0.0 26% 62% 5% 0%
Dumatrait 2006 CIN MLB 24 5 9 0 26 20 111.3 118 76 73 13 50% .299 -7 1.74 5.80 6.04 6.06 9.4 5.7 5.4 1.0 -8.0 -0.1 6% 31% 35% 1%
Kozlowski 2006 CIN MLB 25 5 9 0 30 18 110.3 134 52 58 18 48% .308 -13 1.68 6.05 6.52 6.28 10.8 3.9 4.3 1.5 -10.4 -0.3 15% 49% 17% 1%

Last First Year TM LVL AGE PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD BA OBP SLG MLVR EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EqA VORP Defense Break Improve Collapse Attrition

Dunn Adam 2006 CIN MLB 26 645 94 30 1 41 108 104 148 6 2 5.2 .263 .393 .558 .246 .264 .395 .566 .313 46.6 150-LF -7 24% 67% 10%
Griffey Ken 2006 CIN MLB 36 503 67 25 1 29 88 58 90 1 1 4.2 .281 .367 .541 .204 .282 .369 .549 .299 34.7 119-CF -12 15% 38% 19%
Encarnacion 2006 CIN MLB 23 534 70 30 1 22 75 47 97 8 3 5.1 .275 .344 .485 .089 .276 .345 .492 .277 26.2 125-3B 0 43% 63% 13%
Pena Wily 2006 CIN MLB 24 382 53 20 1 25 65 29 107 4 2 4.9 .282 .345 .558 .194 .283 .346 .566 .292 24.1 91-RF -3 54% 70% 11%
Kearns Austin 2006 CIN MLB 26 459 62 27 2 21 69 53 100 3 1 4.9 .275 .367 .510 .156 .276 .368 .517 .292 22.4 109-RF 0 33% 66% 9%
Lopez Felipe 2006 CIN MLB 26 546 71 26 3 15 61 51 106 10 5 5.6 .265 .337 .427 -.007 .266 .338 .433 .260 21.7 128-SS -7 24% 46% 21%
Aurilia Rich 2006 CIN MLB 34 389 45 20 1 9 46 31 59 2 1 4.5 .265 .327 .409 -.047 .266 .329 .415 .251 10.4 93-SS -1 22% 47% 27%
Denorfia 2006 CIN MLB 25 516 64 24 3 13 57 48 96 9 4 5.6 .262 .335 .413 -.030 .263 .336 .419 .256 10.2 121-CF +2 20% 48% 28%
Larue Jason 2006 CIN MLB 32 333 33 17 1 12 42 28 77 1 1 3.6 .245 .326 .430 -.035 .246 .328 .437 .256 9.0 80-C -2 16% 40% 30%
Valentin 2006 CIN MLB 30 231 24 11 0 9 31 21 39 0 0 3.9 .253 .324 .441 -.019 .254 .325 .448 .257 8.0 57-C -2 18% 40% 38%
Jimenez 2006 CIN MLB 28 377 45 17 1 7 35 43 53 6 3 5.0 .250 .339 .371 -.086 .251 .340 .377 .247 7.4 90-2B +1 31% 44% 25%
Freel Ryan 2006 CIN MLB 30 445 65 19 3 4 32 44 62 29 8 5.8 .259 .344 .351 -.098 .260 .345 .356 .251 6.1 106-2B +2 5% 24% 34%
Menechino 2006 CIN MLB 35 205 23 9 0 5 23 30 37 0 1 4.3 .242 .369 .381 -.027 .243 .371 .386 .263 5.6 52-2B 0 23% 52% 31%
Olmedo Ranier 2006 CIN MLB 25 242 29 10 1 2 20 15 40 6 2 5.5 .260 .312 .351 -.153 .261 .313 .356 .230 3.1 60-2B 0 35% 49% 28%
Romano Jason 2006 CIN MLB 27 346 41 21 2 7 37 19 59 6 2 5.9 .266 .311 .409 -.073 .267 .312 .415 .244 2.8 83-CF -1 23% 43% 31%
Cruz Jacob 2006 CIN MLB 33 104 12 5 0 3 13 11 26 0 0 4.6 .254 .338 .425 -.016 .255 .339 .431 .260 1.3 29-RF -2 22% 46% 35%
Bergolla 2006 CIN MLB 23 448 51 21 2 2 32 23 49 16 4 5.6 .260 .302 .337 -.190 .261 .303 .342 .223 -0.1 106-2B +1 22% 47% 26%
Votto Joey 2006 CIN MLB 22 483 54 24 1 15 56 49 124 4 2 4.0 .237 .318 .398 -.095 .238 .320 .404 .244 -3.3 114-1B -1 21% 50% 28%
Hanigan Ryan 2006 CIN MLB 25 319 30 13 1 4 28 28 44 2 1 4.5 .244 .317 .332 -.179 .245 .318 .337 .225 -4.5 77-C 0 26% 38% 39%
Moran Javon 2006 CIN MLB 23 423 46 17 3 2 28 21 75 17 5 5.6 .258 .299 .327 -.210 .259 .300 .332 .219 -7.2 101-CF +2 5% 23% 51%
Womack Tony 2006 CIN MLB 36 293 33 10 2 1 19 13 38 11 4 6.1 .247 .285 .305 -.270 .248 .286 .310 .205 -8.7 71-2B -1 4% 18% 42%
Perez Miguel 2006 CIN MLB 22 304 25 11 1 4 24 15 67 4 2 4.5 .216 .262 .297 -.339 .217 .263 .302 .186 -11.9 74-C +6 31% 49% 37%
Lee Derrek 2006 CHN MLB 30 663 101 38 2 38 112 76 116 12 4 5.3 .298 .383 .570 .281 .299 .384 .579 .312 51.0 154-1B +8 12% 36% 21%

cincinnati chili
02-04-2006, 03:55 PM
Looks like BP's got the PECOTA forecasts up.

Anyone feel like sharing the Reds' projections?

Dunn - 41 homers, .263/.393/.558. According to Vorp projections, he'll be the 24th most valuable player in the majors (including pitchers)

FeLo - 15 homers, .265/.337/.427 and 7 runs lost on defense. According to Vorp projections, he'll be the 14th most valuable shortstop below the likes of Julio Lugo and Jose Reyes... (so basically, they're saying he's going to decline.

Harang - 11-11 with a 4.19 ERA, 196 IP

Dave Williams - 7-10 with a 4.83 ERA, 140 IP (they have him at about 12 runs less valuable than Sean Casey)

Claussen - 9-11 with a 4.69 ERA

It looks really bad for Wilson and Milton.

Edwin E - a line that looks a lot like Aaron Boone during his prime: .275/.344/.485

Austin: 459 plate appearances - .275/ .367 /.510 (I'd take that)

Griffey: 503 plate appearances, 29 homers .281 .367 .541

WilyMo: 382 plate appearances - .282/.345/.558

Freel: NOT GOOD (let's just say that Aurilia and D'Angelo Jimenez both have better lines)

The catchers: Big dropoff for Valentin, and slight one for LaRue

In general, the pitching looks bAAAAAD. The next best VORP to Harang is Todd Coffey, with a projected VORP of 11.7 runs above replacement level, and an ERA barely under 4.00.

WVRed
02-04-2006, 04:03 PM
Since when did we pick up Derrek Lee?;)

RFS62
02-04-2006, 04:18 PM
How close did last years Reds come to their Pecotas?

westofyou
02-04-2006, 04:27 PM
How close did last years Reds come to their Pecotas?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31356

TC81190
02-04-2006, 05:25 PM
I'd take Eddies contribution close to that next year. FeLo, I'd like to see much much better.

KronoRed
02-04-2006, 06:28 PM
They don't like Freel over there ;)

Big Klu
02-04-2006, 06:44 PM
When I saw the topic of this thread, I thought that the Reds had signed Bill Pecota to add to their burgeoning list of aging, underachieving second basemen.

redsfanmia
02-04-2006, 07:06 PM
Now that we have these projections why play the season? We all now know how the players are going to perform.

IslandRed
02-04-2006, 07:11 PM
Now that we have these projections why play the season? We all now know how the players are going to perform.

Of course it's not an exact science. Neither is predicting the weather, but that doesn't mean you don't make an effort. Accurately projecting future performance (or trying to) is an integral part of running a ballclub.

marcshoe
02-04-2006, 07:21 PM
It's no wonder the projections are so bad; look at the players' ages! Claussen is 9, Williams is 7, and little Davey Weathers is only 3 years old!

Then you get to the position players and you find out that the Reds just gave a new contract to a 231-year-old backup catcher! And I won't even mention Old Man Denorfia. :eek:

But seriously folks, while two or three of these guys may do better than projected, I don't think it's any secret that the Reds cannot win with this staff.

Falls City Beer
02-04-2006, 08:03 PM
Pecota's were pretty off the mark last year.

Cooper
02-04-2006, 08:18 PM
Last year's pecota's may be off because of the park factor change for 2005 (iirc, 100 v. 116).

cincinnati chili
02-04-2006, 10:17 PM
Pecota's were pretty off the mark last year.

Do you mean the Reds or Pecota in general?

I thought they were pretty ON the mark, other than Kearns.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=552455&postcount=15

Falls City Beer
02-04-2006, 10:38 PM
Do you mean the Reds or Pecota in general?

I thought they were pretty ON the mark, other than Kearns.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=552455&postcount=15

They missed Pena, Lopez by a considerable margin as well.

M2
02-05-2006, 01:02 AM
Now that we have these projections why play the season? We all now know how the players are going to perform.

Wow, is there a rule that somebody has to make this exact same inane comment every year in the PECOTA thread?

Raisor
02-05-2006, 08:10 AM
Wow, is there a rule that somebody has to make this exact same inane comment every year in the PECOTA thread?


apparently

creek14
02-05-2006, 08:37 AM
Wow, is there a rule that somebody has to make this exact same inane comment every year in the PECOTA thread?
Gesh M2, haven't you read the rules of the board? It falls between the rules about posting that Dunn strikes out too much and the one about restructuring Pena's contract so he can be sent down.

RFS62
02-05-2006, 08:39 AM
and the one about restructuring Pena's contract so he can be sent down.


I've always thought that would be a good idea.

Raisor
02-05-2006, 08:39 AM
and the one about restructuring Pena's contract so he can be sent down.


That's an AWESOME idea!!!!

westofyou
02-05-2006, 11:19 AM
Wow, is there a rule that somebody has to make this exact same inane comment every year in the PECOTA thread?
My thought exactly, they are just stats folks, if they bother you so much then might I suggest you leave your snide comments about them elsewhere?:laugh:

LoganBuck
02-05-2006, 03:08 PM
I think they are low on Lopez, but given the historical performance of the rest of the Reds lineup should we expect any different? I kind of like what they have to say about EdE. That would be a nice first full season, not great, but good.

Raisor
02-05-2006, 03:16 PM
I kind of like what they have to say about EdE. That would be a nice first full season, not great, but good.


275/.344/.485

829 OPS at third.

That would have been good enough for 6th overall in the majors last year (5th in the NL).

TRF
02-05-2006, 03:23 PM
Since Harang has improved his numbers every year, I wonder why the drop in his numbers.

I'm really hoping Clussen takes the next step the way Aaron did last offseason.

LoganBuck
02-05-2006, 03:27 PM
275/.344/.485

829 OPS at third.

That would have been good enough for 6th overall in the majors last year (5th in the NL).

I agree but I think it shows just how valuable a decent thirdbasemen is. Perhaps the GABP version of Joe Randa should have netted more of a return?

BoydsOfSummer
02-05-2006, 03:28 PM
If Double E throws up those rates this year, mark me as thrilled. Here's hoping he approaches those in the spring and out of the gate so he fends off any dipstickish thoughts of Aurilia stealing AB's.

Falls City Beer
02-05-2006, 05:53 PM
PECOTA are kind of a fun little frippery, but honestly, one really has to wonder what the boys over there were thinking to project WMP with a .351 OBP for last year--there is nothing whatsoever in his profile that even hinted at his ability to do that. Players don't just stumble upon a .350 OBP--getting up over that mark indicates a deliberate and rare skill set. Every point over that mark raises a player's worth exponentially.

ochre
02-05-2006, 06:22 PM
I've always thought that would be a good idea.
We should ask Kullman!1!!

MrCinatit
02-05-2006, 06:31 PM
wow - Dan0's big off-season aquisition after Lefty Williams is ranked only above Miguel Perez and a cub.

cincinnati chili
02-06-2006, 12:38 AM
Since Harang has improved his numbers every year, I wonder why the drop in his numbers.




PECOTA are kind of a fun little frippery, but honestly, one really has to wonder what the boys over there were thinking to project WMP with a .351 OBP for last year.

If I understand PECOTA correctly (and it's very possible that I don't), there are zero human adjustments made to the projections. It's all done by computer.

Say the player is a 25 year old Adam Dunn. The computer finds players that were most similar to Adam Dunn up to this point in his career (for example, 25 year old players, similar height/weight, similar OPS, etc). The program then analyzes what happened to that class of players the following year. For example, 60% may have declined, 25% may have collapsed, 20% may have improved.


It's simply a tool. Not perfect (for example, you have to look at the list of similar players and see if there are any mitigating factors... like perhaps one of the "similars" broke his leg the next year), but pretty damn impressive, if you ask me.

While Pecota did miss on Pena in 2005, it also projected his breakout season in 2004. It projected Johnny Gomes' last year.

Pena's four most similar players going into last year were Albert Belle 1990, Jesse Barfield 1983, Bob Watson 1969, and Dale Murphy 1979. 14 of his 20 most similar players trended upward. That's why the program projected improvement in '05. It just didn't happen.

Caveat Emperor
02-06-2006, 01:59 AM
275/.344/.485

829 OPS at third.

That would have been good enough for 6th overall in the majors last year (5th in the NL).

At first glance, I almost thought that they'd reversed the numbers for Lopez and Encarnacion by mistake.

I'd be thrilled if Edwin put those kind of numbers up, but I'm not too confident. Hopefully this year will be a productive year as he learns what it takes to be an everyday player in the major leagues.

M2
02-06-2006, 10:00 AM
IMO, the value of PECOTA is that it gives you a good team baseline. Of course it will miss on individual projections. Ryan Freel will almost certainly do better than his and Eric Milton almost certainly will do worse.

Yet when your entire pitching staff has to trounce its PECOTAs in order for the team to compete then you've got trouble. In essence it's telling you how many cards you need to pull to a straight.

cincinnati chili
02-06-2006, 08:30 PM
IMO, the value of PECOTA is that it gives you a good team baseline. Of course it will miss on individual projections. Ryan Freel will almost certainly do better than his and Eric Milton almost certainly will do worse.

Yet when your entire pitching staff has to trounce its PECOTAs in order for the team to compete then you've got trouble. In essence it's telling you how many cards you need to pull to a straight.

I agree with you.

To play devil's advocate, a critic would say that based on PECOTA, the White Sox were supposed to allow more runs than they scored in 2005. So sometimes, even on a macro-level (a whole team), it will miss.

As I said, I think it's a pretty damn good tool. Not perfect, but PDG.

Falls City Beer
02-06-2006, 08:38 PM
I agree with you.

To play devil's advocate, a critic would say that based on PECOTA, the White Sox were supposed to allow more runs than they scored in 2005. So sometimes, even on a macro-level (a whole team), it will miss.

As I said, I think it's a pretty damn good tool. Not perfect, but PDG.

It's a tool whose biases give you biased projections. It could be made better--so why isn't it?

A good system works well in the parts as well as the whole--otherwise you got people treating an abscessed tooth with a hatchet.

It's a cute toy, but hardly a solid predictive tool. I'd trust a number of members on this board to make solider predictions using a more compelling set of criteria/assumptions to guide said predictions.

RFS62
02-06-2006, 08:55 PM
It's a cute toy, but hardly a solid predictive tool. I'd trust a number of members on this board to make solider predictions using a more compelling set of criteria/assumptions to guide said predictions.


Now, this is coming from someone who ten years ago would have laughed out loud at the concept of Pecota.

But it's a tool that should to be in the toolbox of anyone making predictions. How you weigh it is up to your own predilections.

Cooper
02-06-2006, 09:35 PM
re: WMP --the hardball annual reports that WMP was hit unlucky --they have what is a form of DIPS for hitters--i think they call it Props...anyways, that may account for Pecota's .351 obp. If his hits fall at a normal rate then maybe he ends up with a .351 obp. God i love baseball.

Falls City Beer
02-06-2006, 09:46 PM
Now, this is coming from someone who ten years ago would have laughed out loud at the concept of Pecota.

But it's a tool that should to be in the toolbox of anyone making predictions. How you weigh it is up to your own predilections.

A tool is only a tool if you understand the deepness of its limitations. Otherwise it's a block of wood.

RFS62
02-06-2006, 10:23 PM
A tool is only a tool if you understand the deepness of its limitations. Otherwise it's a block of wood.



i∑ro∑ny

1. Incongruity between what might be expected and what actually occurs

2. RFS62 arguing with Falls City the relative merits of sabermetrics and Baseball Prospectus forcasting tools.

Falls City Beer
02-06-2006, 10:33 PM
i∑ro∑ny

1. Incongruity between what might be expected and what actually occurs

2. RFS62 arguing with Falls City the relative merits of sabermetrics and Baseball Prospectus forcasting tools.


Look, I love statistics. But the real world's all about how one applies those statistics. Conclusions and applications are what separate the men from the boys.

PECOTA's interesting. And probably applicable. But I'd like someone on my payroll who could foresee WMP's limitations (oh, like, say, woy, pedro and me?) :)

RFS62
02-06-2006, 10:39 PM
Look, I love statistics. But the real world's all about how one applies those statistics. Conclusions and applications are what separate the men from the boys.

PECOTA's interesting. And probably applicable. But I'd like someone on my payroll who could foresee WMP's limitations (oh, like, say, woy, pedro and me?) :)



It's just a tool. Kinda like Raisor.

Use it at your discretion.

M2
02-06-2006, 10:43 PM
Look, I love statistics. But the real world's all about how one applies those statistics. Conclusions and applications are what separate the men from the boys.

PECOTA's interesting. And probably applicable. But I'd like someone on my payroll who could foresee WMP's limitations (oh, like, say, woy, pedro and me?) :)

IIRC, you've been pretty much dead wrong about Pena to date. He's already miles better than you ever thought he'd be. You thought he'd shrivel and die in AA.

He's only 24. He has earth-shaking power and he's only going to get mightier. Pitchers are going to stay away from the strikezone with him out of fear at some point. Will it be this year? Hard to know when that rocket launches, but when it does a .350 OB strikes me as easily achievable for the kid.

Falls City Beer
02-06-2006, 10:51 PM
IIRC, you've been pretty much dead wrong about Pena to date. He's already miles better than you ever thought he'd be. You thought he'd shrivel and die in AA.

He's only 24. He has earth-shaking power and he's only going to get mightier. Pitchers are going to stay away from the strikezone with him out of fear at some point. Will it be this year? Hard to know when that rocket launches, but when it does a .350 OB strikes me as easily achievable for the kid.


From minute one, I've said he'd not get his OBP over .325 at the MLB unless his game totally changes. I've been dead right the whole time. I honestly have no idea where you got the "dead at AA" prediction. Honestly, if being a league average leftfielder means a player's "miles ahead" of my predictions, then so be it--I'm nuts.

People were calling for longterm contracts for the guy at the All-Star break last season. Good thing no one listened.

He may have a Guillen-esque season somewhere down the line, but it's not happened yet, and probably won't happen this year unless his game changes. At 24 (not really young anymore for an offensive player), I'm not banking on it.

But again, my point isn't solely about Pena--it's about making predictions based upon performance and less on "comparable" players.

cincinnati chili
02-06-2006, 11:01 PM
It's a tool whose biases give you biased projections. It could be made better--so why isn't it?


I would argue that it is "made better" in the annuals, where the writers say "he'll outhit that Pecota projection because of x, y and z."

Falls City Beer
02-06-2006, 11:01 PM
Just as a point of comparison, this year's PECOTA sees Kearns OPSing at an .880 clip. I sure as hell don't see that happening. And I know for a fact that you don't either.

We see limitations in these players that these projections aren't addressing. Legitimate concerns the metrics overlook.

Falls City Beer
02-06-2006, 11:03 PM
I would argue that it is "made better" in the annuals, where the writers say "he'll outhit that Pecota projection because of x, y and z."

Sure. But certain assumptions guide the computer projections--can they be fined down? Predictions aren't just "objective stats."

cincinnati chili
02-06-2006, 11:07 PM
There were a LOT of people on this board who said that Pena should be released just to clear up a roster spot (not saying it was FCB, cuz I don't remember).

I never advocated that, but I did strongly advise the Reds to trade him to a team like Tampa Bay a few years back. I figured any team playing 4 or 5 "rule 5" guys could find playing time for the guy.

I always thought Pena had a shot to improve, but not without substantial playing time. I'm very impressed he's made it this far, given how little time he got early on.

M2
02-06-2006, 11:21 PM
From minute one, I've said he'd not get his OBP over .325 at the MLB unless his game totally changes. I've been dead right the whole time. I honestly have no idea where you got the "dead at AA" prediction. Honestly, if being a league average leftfielder means a player's "miles ahead" of my predictions, then so be it--I'm nuts.

People were calling for longterm contracts for the guy at the All-Star break last season. Good thing no one listened.

He may have a Guillen-esque season somewhere down the line, but it's not happened yet, and probably won't happen this year unless his game changes. At 24 (not really young anymore for an offensive player), I'm not banking on it.

But again, my point isn't solely about Pena--it's about making predictions based upon performance and less on "comparable" players.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but weren't you in favor of cutting Pena at one point? I remember you insisting there's no way he'd do anything mildly productive prior to the 2004 season.

His game doesn't need to change. He just needs to mature a bit. Want a comp of a very similar player to Pena, here you go:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/ron-gant.shtml

If you're league average at 22 and 23, then you're likely to get a whole lot better in your mid-20s. At least, that's what a rational conclusion would look like. Maybe PECOTA's a year early on his OB. It was last season, but you seem to be complaining that no one goes in and hand-adjusts what's supposed to be an automated system. The system pretty much assumes people will pick up where it left off.

Anyway, here's what I figure for Pena -- his OB will rise in the wake of his HR totals. If the kid hits 30+ HR next year, he'll post his best OB ever. If he hits 40+ HR, then he's a good bet to crack the .350 barrier.

Falls City Beer
02-06-2006, 11:29 PM
If you're league average at 22 and 23, then you're likely to get a whole lot better in your mid-20s.

Why? Particularly in light of the fact that Pena didn't take a step forward in any way last season. Why should one assume improvement under these circumstances?

And I'm not asking for "hand-adjustments," just predictions that get within a country-mile of accuracy. Which the 2005 PECOTA were disastrously off the mark for the Reds. Why is that? Is that not a question worth asking?

I'm asking for a better projector. I don't know how to make one; but I know when the crystal ball is slathered in vaseline.

M2
02-07-2006, 12:05 AM
Why? Particularly in light of the fact that Pena didn't take a step forward in any way last season. Why should one assume improvement under these circumstances?

And I'm not asking for "hand-adjustments," just predictions that get within a country-mile of accuracy. Which the 2005 PECOTA were disastrously off the mark for the Reds. Why is that? Is that not a question worth asking?

I'm asking for a better projector. I don't know how to make one; but I know when the crystal ball is slathered in vaseline.

It's not always linear. Adam Dunn stumbled back a step in 2003 (not coincidentally at age 23). I assume improvement for Pena will come sooner or later because it comes for most every player. He's got a good attitude and work ethic so atmospherics don't seem likely to hold him back.

As for why players get better as they move into their mid-20s, the simple answer is physical maturity. The even simpler answer is who cares, they just do.

Anyway, I'm guessing you'd find that if you took the Reds projections in total from last year and averaged them out it would land somewhere near where the team averages fell for the season. Yeah you'll miss some on the high side (Kearns) and others on the low side (Lopez), but the goal of a system is to find the middle. What you're asking for is something that predicts most every swing. I'm sure folks will keep hunting for such a thing, but IMO it's a philosophical trap to seek a broad system that does a bang-up job at the individual level.

cincinnati chili
02-07-2006, 12:07 AM
And I'm not asking for "hand-adjustments," just predictions that get within a country-mile of accuracy. Which the 2005 PECOTA were disastrously off the mark for the Reds. Why is that?



Well, right there you're exaggerating. Country mile?

Can you cite one single publication that projected a breakout year for FeLo? I can't. How about the collapse of Austin Kearns?

So pecota predicted Wily Mo would improve. He slipped a bit. Big deal.

By the way, rotowire.com is projecting a .279/.326/.545 for Pena this year (a 75 point improvement in OPS).

Also, I'm misrepresenting Pecota by saying that it "projects" anything. It gives probabilities and percentiles and weighted means. The Reds' projections posted here are the weighted means. There is a also a collapse rate, breakout rate, etc.

Perhaps, you'll say this is an example of being on the fence. But I think this is a lot more honest method than any other type of projection system.

westofyou
02-07-2006, 12:18 AM
By the way, rotowire.com is projecting a .279/.326/.545 for Pena this year (a 75 point improvement in OPS)..259/.311/.497 from Bill James Handbook (Last year it was .253/.303/.491)

He ended up with .254/.304/.492

Caveat Emperor
02-07-2006, 01:44 AM
It's not always linear. Adam Dunn stumbled back a step in 2003 (not coincidentally at age 23). I assume improvement for Pena will come sooner or later because it comes for most every player. He's got a good attitude and work ethic so atmospherics don't seem likely to hold him back.

The problem I see with this comparison is that even when Dunn took a step backwards in 2003, he retained his plate discipline -- taking 74 BBs on 469 PAs (averaging a BB every 6.3 PAs -- near his career average of 6.03 PAs/BB). Pena has never displayed that kind of discipline at the dish, posting only 20 BBs in 335 PAs (averaging a BB every 16.75 PAs) in 2005. Considering his minor league numbers as well, it seems to me that Pena has yet to display the ability to walk at a level that would allow him to raise his OBP significantly from where it currently stands, in the very-low .300s.

He's always been known for his prodigious power, and pitchers have stayed away from offering up fastballs in the zone over the last season +. It's now up to Pena to prove that he can tell the difference between a breaking ball out of the zone and a fastball down the middle -- so far he's yet to show me anything that would indicate he's got that one figured out.

M2
02-07-2006, 02:20 AM
The problem I see with this comparison is that even when Dunn took a step backwards in 2003, he retained his plate discipline -- taking 74 BBs on 469 PAs (averaging a BB every 6.3 PAs -- near his career average of 6.03 PAs/BB). Pena has never displayed that kind of discipline at the dish, posting only 20 BBs in 335 PAs (averaging a BB every 16.75 PAs) in 2005. Considering his minor league numbers as well, it seems to me that Pena has yet to display the ability to walk at a level that would allow him to raise his OBP significantly from where it currently stands, in the very-low .300s.

He's always been known for his prodigious power, and pitchers have stayed away from offering up fastballs in the zone over the last season +. It's now up to Pena to prove that he can tell the difference between a breaking ball out of the zone and a fastball down the middle -- so far he's yet to show me anything that would indicate he's got that one figured out.

Dunn and Pena are different animals. Pena retained the essential nature of his game -- inhuman power -- when he took a step back in 2005. To me that's the main thing. The core of Pena's future success never left him.

Just as part of the natural experience/maturation process he's going to hit more balls harder in the future. Once upon a time Eric Davis and Reggie Sanders primarily feasted on fastballs. Then as they got older they transitioned into hitters who punished breaking stuff. They had more patience that Pena too, but Pena's got more power.

I don't worry about his pitch selection. Every hitter works on that. And because of the power I don't worry about the OB too much. When his muscle begins to overwhelm offerings in the strikezone on a slightly more regular basis, a better OB will follow.

Raisor
02-07-2006, 06:13 AM
It's just a tool. Kinda like Raisor.

Use it at your discretion.


HEEEEYY!!

Wait one darn minute!

RFS62
02-07-2006, 07:34 AM
HEEEEYY!!

Wait one darn minute!



I'm sorry. I should have said a POWER tool.

A chainsaw of observation, wit and wisdom. Yeah. That's what I meant.

About time you showed up, anyway.

How long can a honeymoon last?

GAC
02-07-2006, 07:57 AM
I'm sorry. I should have said a POWER tool.

A chainsaw of observation, wit and wisdom. Yeah. That's what I meant.

About time you showed up, anyway.

How long can a honeymoon last?

It's a Black and Decker. :lol:

Falls City Beer
02-07-2006, 07:58 AM
Can you cite one single publication that projected a breakout year for FeLo? I can't.

.

Steel predicted it. And had damn good reasons to defend his prediction.

And I'd say missing a bunch of players by .100 points of OPS is missing by a country mile. If the metaphor doesn't suit you, come up with another.

KronoRed
02-07-2006, 10:24 AM
There were a LOT of people on this board who said that Pena should be released just to clear up a roster spot
I was, and I stand my it, my thinking at the time was he wasn't going to develop for us sitting on the bench, he needed time in the minors we weren't going to get him, I was in favor of dumping him so we could A have someone else on the bench who might do better as a bench player and B so he could develop for someone else.

Then people got hurt and he got some playing time...things change ;)

westofyou
02-07-2006, 03:50 PM
FWIW here's an article on PECOTA from the end of the season.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4482


September 28, 2005
Lies, Damned Lies
Beaten Down by PECOTA

by Nate Silver

Will Carroll, Paul Swydan and I were batting around various types of BP-branded All-Star teams on our internal listserv this week--look for more of these coming soon--and naturally the idea of an All-PECOTA team came up. The idea is to identify those players who have most exceeded their PECOTA projections (ďBeat PECOTAĒ), as measured by actual VORP, less VORP as projected in the very last iteration of our preseason depth charts. In some cases, these will be players who had ridiculous fluke seasons, in others, guys who made some important changes in their game, and in others still, players whom PECOTA went short on and simply got burned. Well also want to look, of course, at those players who most underperformed their PECOTAs--what I call the Beaten Down by PECOTA Team.

The PECOTA All-Star teams donít include any pitchers. Pitchers have unexpected seasons all the time--thatís the nature of the beast--but usually the stories behind them arenít very interesting: "he was hit-lucky," "he blew out his labrum," "Leo Mazzone." Iíd rather explore the hitters in more detail than put out a series of bullet points. Iím aware that the season is not quite over; VORP figures are taken through Sunday nightís games.

Catcher
Beat PECOTA: Michael Barrett, Cubs (+15.2 VORP differential); Jason LaRue, Reds (+15.2)
Beaten Down: J.D. Closser, Rockies (-21.4 VORP differential)

Itís been a rough year for catchers. One of the more telling statistics that Iíve seen this season is the one that was flashed on the U.S. Cellular scoreboard last Tuesday: "Victor Martinez leads AL Catchers with 74 RBI." Martinez has since increased that number to 78, which is somehow good enough not only to lead the AL, but also all of baseball--the runners up are Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada, who are tied at 69 as of this writing. Although Martinez (+11.7) and Varitek (+11.9) have had good seasons, these are countered by the disappointing years of Ivan Rodriguez (-15.4), Javy Lopez (-14.2), and Jason Kendall (-14.4) among others--this in spite of the fact that PECOTA recognizes the aging problems that past-peak catchers encounter and had notably conservative projections for all of them.

A stroll through our league positional averages reports tells an interesting story. Twenty years ago or so, catchers out-hit shortstops by a fair margin; thatís actually been true for most of baseballís history. Now the reverse is the case. Some of that is the presence of players like Derek Jeter and Miguel Tejada--guys who might have wound up at third base before Cal Ripken changed the precedent--but thereís also reason to believe that the job of being a catcher is becoming more difficult. Iím not talking about controlling the running game, a relatively minor component of todayís game. Iím talking about the catching part itself. Pitchers are throwing more pitches than they used to, fewer of those pitches are being hit into play, and the pitches are more likely to be thrown faster or with funkier movement (e.g., split-finger fastballs). Being a catcher is more taxing than it used to be, and thereís less room for error--and catchers are paying the price with their offense.

With that tangent out of the way, we should give our due to Barrett and LaRue. To think that Cub and Redleg fans thought they had no reason to watch their teams play out the schedule! LaRueís story isnít particularly interesting--a veteran having a modest career year in a down season for the position. Barrett, on the other hand, is one of those players that might ďbreakĒ PECOTA. As I mentioned in Barrettís player comment in this yearís annual, while thereís generally nothing important that happens when a player switches organizations, there may be some exceptions. Barrett escaped a toxic environment in Montreal and a manager who didnít believe in him for a notably more stable milieu in Chicago, and has responded by finally living up to his minor-league potential.

Closser was a worthwhile experiment in Colorado, but itís turned out terribly; a .220/.316/.375 batting line for a catcher with marginal defensive abilities would be problematic in Shea Stadium, let alone Coors Field. Heís also one of those guys that had a ton of variation in his PECOTA forecast, as is typical for players that reach the majors a bit late--his 90th percentile EqA was .316, and his 10th percentile EqA, .211. As barren as the Rockiesí organization is, they can probably afford to give him another 250 PA, but theyíll need to have a better contingency plan than Danny Ardoin in place.

First Base
Beat PECOTA: Derrek Lee, Cubs (+61.0)
Beaten Down: Jim Thome, Phillies (-55.8).
Non-Injury Division: Hee Seop Choi, Dodgers (-33.2).

PECOTA thought very favorably of Lee, giving him a 21.6% breakout rate, though of course his production this season has exceeded even its wildest expectations. The lesson here is that if youíre looking for mid-career breakout candidates, the combination of good secondary attributes (speed, defense, body type) and a very clean bill of health is a powerful one. Lee fits this profile perfectly; so do Andruw Jones and Alex Rodriguez. Itís no coincidence that the one time BP really kicked some butt in Tout Wars NL is the year the draft was held in Chicago, and Will Carroll and I got to team up.

I wonít say much about Jim Thome, other than that the Phillies are going to have one hell of an interesting situation on their hands next spring. Choiís numbers have not been terrible, and the foul there probably belongs with PECOTA, which anticipated a huge breakout. Subjectively speaking, given how Choiís numbers tanked after Dusty Baker gave up on him in Chicago, itís tempting to think about how he might respond from playing most every day, rather than being jerked in and out of the lineup and shuffled from one club to another. On the other hand, heíll be 27 next year, teams have a right to be demanding of their first basemen, and confidence is a skill.

Second Base
Beat PECOTA: Brian Roberts, Orioles (+42.7)
Beaten Down: Mark Bellhorn, Yankees (-35.2)

A volatile year for second basemen; besides Roberts and Bellhorn, Mark Ellis (+25.2), Chase Utley (+24.0), and Jorge Cantu (+23.6) all did big things, while Bret Boone (-31.7), DíAngelo Jimenez (-29.9), Junior Spivey (-29.3) and Mark Loretta (-26.9 on a notably pessimistic PECOTA) all joined Bellhorn in the tank. Among the breakouts, Utley looks like the best bet going forward; heís younger than Roberts and Ellis, and doesnít have Cantuís plate discipline issues. You have to hate to see the injury to Roberts, particularly as this season was mostly a power breakout and the injury was to his left elbow, which is going to take a ton of torque for a guy who takes most of his plate appearances from that side of the plate.

Bellhorn has fallen into something of a Saberhagen Oscillation, and it says something that the two teams that are probably best equipped to appreciate his skills have punted him. One thing we should look at in the future is whether extreme ďThree True OutcomesĒ players are more-slump prone. I will say this: guys who work extremely deep into the count donít leave themselves a whole lot of margin for error if thereís just the slightest tick in their timing. This year, Bellhorn is hitting just .098 with two strikes on him, with strikeouts in 55% of those plate appearances.

Third Base
Beat PECOTA: Morgan Ensberg, Astros (+36.3)
Beaten Down: Scott Rolen, Cardinals (-57.1).
Non-Injury Division: Mike Lowell, Marlins (-34.4).

PECOTA predicted something of a rebound for Ensberg, but heís still managed to blow away his projection. The sudden disappearance and reappearance of his isolated power while his other statistics remained just about the same, looks like it might be an unreported injury. Actually, the other statistic that has fit the pattern are Ensbergís fielding numbers: his FRAA was +9 in 2003, -13 in 2004, and now it's back to +9 in 2005. Third base is a throwing position; itíd be interesting to raid the Minute Maid Park training room and take a look at some shoulder X-rays.

Speaking of shoulder injuries, take a look at how much Scott Rolen struggled as he tried to play through his problems. Mike Lowell doesnít have any such excuses, and has played just about as poorly as you can without getting benched. Although I suggested back at the trade deadline that this might be the beginning of the end for Lowell, Iím not so sure upon closer examination. All the underlying metrics remain the same: his plate discipline, groundball/flyball numbers and speed metrics are about what theyíve always been. His defense continues to rate well, and heís hit plenty of doubles. Itís just that 20 home runs seem to have evaporated; I expect that heíll get about two-thirds of those back next season.

Shortstop
Beat PECOTA: Michael Young, Rangers (+50.6)
Beaten Down: Cristian Guzman, Nationals (-27.2)

PECOTA just completely whiffed on Young, giving him a 37% collapse rate, and remaining skeptical enough of his power that folks like Mark Grudzielanek showed up as comparables. Nor does Ameriquest Field provide much of an explanation; Young is one of the few Rangers who has hit just about as well on the road as he has at home. His plate approach wouldnít appear to have changed that much, and I have no real answer here, other than the handy "ballplayers are funny."

That Guzman managed to win his division in spite of a projected batting line of .263/.301/.367 is remarkable; he comes in just ahead of the man who replaced him in Minnesota, Jason Bartlett (-26.8). Among Guzmanís top five PECOTA comparables, three were Larry Bowa, Ozzie Guillen, and Red Schoendienst, so thereís a good chance that heíll continue to annoy us for years to come, even if his batting skills have atrophied.

Left Field
Beat PECOTA: Jason Bay, Pirates (+41.0)
Beaten Down: Barry Bonds, Giants (-61.0).
Non-Injury Division: Eric Byrnes, Various (-31.1).

My pet theory on Jason Bay, who is developing into one of those multitalented players that PECOTA should treat very favorably going forward, is that players from Canada develop slower than the norm. Larry Walker? His best seasons according to our WARP system came at ages 30 and 34. Matt Stairs? Not established in the big leagues until 29. Corey Koskie? Stuck in the minors until 26. Tip OíNeill? His batting average jumped by more than 100 points at age 29. Terry Puhl peaked early, I guess. There is some rationale behind this; hockey weather prevails for about three-quarters of the year in Canada, and so players from our friendly neighbor donít get as much experience under their belt as amateurs. Bay played his college ball at Gonzaga and something called North Idaho College (thank you, Pirates Media Guide), which isnít much better.

Surfer boy Byrnes, on the other hand, who grew up in Redwood City and went to college at UCLA, became utterly lost once he found himself beached thousands of miles from the Pacific. Heís hit .280 in the California Republic this season, and .204 everywhere else.

Center Field
Beat PECOTA: Brady Clark, Brewers (+33.8)
Beaten Down: Corey Patterson, Des Moines (-39.5)

Iím not really buying the Brady Clark breakout, which is largely batting average and playing time driven, but to his credit heís developed into a useful complementary part now that the Brewers have discovered that he can play a credible center field, seeing a lot of pitches for a guy that doesnít hit for much power and taking more than his fair share of them for the team (16 HBP). Heís also 10-for-23 on stolen base attempts; look for a challenge trade that brings the ďbroodingĒ Aaron Rowand (-15.1) to Miller Park next season.

Patterson started taking more pitches toward the end of last season, to the extent that I thought he was a real breakout candidate and told friends that I wouldnít trade him straight-up for Andruw Jones (+15.6), even before salary considerations. The Cubs are probably right that he doesnít have a future in Chicago, although that leaves open the question of just how responsible they are for his demise. Iím not talking about "teaching plate discipline," which is probably impossible once a player has hit age 25 or so. But to play Wednesday Morning Armchair Psychologist, it would seem that the Dusty Baker tough love approach is incongruous with a moody player like Patterson; Patterson certainly didnít respond well after his demotion to Iowa. Next year, weíll get Felix Pie up here, and the cycle shall repeat itself.

Right Field
Beat PECOTA: Emil Brown, Royals (+28.4); Geoff Jenkins, Brewers (+28.4).
Beaten Down: Sammy Sosa, Orioles (-33.1).

Thereís nothing all that interesting about Jenkinsí season. Like J.D. Closser, Jenkins had a relatively volatile projection, with breakout and collapse rates both around 20%, the latter because an injury-prone corner outfielder having a down season as Jenkins did in 2004 can sometimes be a bad sign (think Candy Maldonado). Heís managed to stay mostly healthy and perform toward the better end of what heís capable of; his .292/.371/.512 batting line is an almost perfect analog for PECOTAís .294/.372/.530 90th percentile projection. As for Emil Brown--we thought so much of him that we didnít even print his PECOTA card prior to the season. I have one stored on my Toshiba; his top comparables are: Chris Jones, John Wehner, Tom Paciorek, Thomas Howard, and Don Taussig. If you could see this coming, please drop me a line; Iíll be happy to set you up with my Party Poker username and password.

Zen koan for the day: if a monk comes up to you and wagers you 100 lotus flowers that Sammy Sosa wonít make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, do you accept it? Sosaís comparables were about evenly divided between players like Reggie Jackson and Dave Winfield that managed to provide some value in their late thirties, and others like Gil Hodges and Dale Murphy who fell apart completely. What you donít see is guys who had a rough year at age 36 and then rebounded. One change Iíd like to make to PECOTA this winter is to rig the system such that the most recent season is given relatively more weight in the case of very old and very young players, and relatively less weight in the cases of player in mid-career. Before you ask: yes, there is a statistical basis for this. If Pat Burrell or Adrian Beltre has an out-of-character season, I expect a lot of regression to the mean; if Sosa or Moises Alou (+30.6) does, thatís something different.

Moosie52
02-07-2006, 03:53 PM
Whoa. Denorfia rules!