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Krusty
02-04-2006, 11:10 PM
How long will it take for Bob Castellini to resurrect this franchise back to its winning ways?

KronoRed
02-04-2006, 11:12 PM
Depends who he hires as GM and if he lets said GM do his job without being overridden by other noisy people in the FO.

Krusty
02-04-2006, 11:17 PM
Depends who he hires as GM and if he lets said GM do his job without being overridden by other noisy people in the FO.

From what I have read and heard, it seems who he hires as a GM better know how to rebuild a farm system and wheel and deal at the same time.

Boss-Hog
02-04-2006, 11:39 PM
From what I have read and heard, it seems who he hires as a GM better know how to rebuild a farm system and wheel and deal at the same time.
That's pretty much what the GM position entails (as opposed to O'Brien's vision of rebuilding the Reds by participating in the very same draft as every other major league team and sitting on his hands the rest of the time).

membengal
02-05-2006, 08:21 AM
That's pretty much what the GM position entails (as opposed to O'Brien's vision of rebuilding the Reds by participating in the very same draft as every other major league team and sitting on his hands the rest of the time).

Hee.

That's an extremely quality 4000th post. Props, boss-hog, and thanks for the fine site.

I went with four years, because I presume the question is about playoffs, and it's going to take that long. But I think this team will get interesting and competitive again far before that.

creek14
02-05-2006, 08:35 AM
It's all depends on your definition of ressurect.

Mine is making the play-offs.

So I went with four years.

GAC
02-05-2006, 08:46 AM
Depends on whether he listens to the fans or not. ;)

We have the offense. The answer to the question of "how long will it take?" is found in the pitching. If we take the road to develop it, then it will obviously take longer. Going out and acquiring it, would take less.

MartyFan
02-05-2006, 08:52 AM
From what I have read and heard, it seems who he hires as a GM better know how to rebuild a farm system and wheel and deal at the same time.

Agreed...what about a new concept...a GM who simply works on the MLB roster and then a Scouting Director/GM type who works only on the Minor League System...they communicate with one another and determine what pieces and parts they can move to get the best talent for the current roster and building the system...maybe that is how it is already done...maybe this is n't a very good idea.

KronoRed
02-05-2006, 09:16 AM
/\
Sounds like a good idea to me, but you need 2 guys who are on the same page and who won't try and stab the other in the back

Krusty
02-05-2006, 10:03 AM
Agreed...what about a new concept...a GM who simply works on the MLB roster and then a Scouting Director/GM type who works only on the Minor League System...they communicate with one another and determine what pieces and parts they can move to get the best talent for the current roster and building the system...maybe that is how it is already done...maybe this is n't a very good idea.

As I mentioned before, maybe that will be the role Castanelli gives Jim Beattie if he doesn't get the GM job. Essentially, he replaces Dean Taylor as assistant GM but would oversee the development of the farm system while the GM concentrates on the major league roster.

StillFunkyB
02-05-2006, 10:43 AM
If we are lucky, then Homer Bailey will be making an impact in about 4 years.

The rest of the farm system is filled with blah for the most part.

I picked 4 years.

Krusty
02-05-2006, 10:56 AM
If we are lucky, then Homer Bailey will be making an impact in about 4 years.

The rest of the farm system is filled with blah for the most part.

I picked 4 years.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Bailey start at Double A Chatanooga.

StillFunkyB
02-05-2006, 11:00 AM
It wouldn't surprise me to see Bailey start at Double A Chatanooga.

I am all for it, but...

Lets just say he blows through AA this year, and AAA next year. I still think he would be about a year and a half or so before he makes an impact with the Reds. That is why I said about 4 years. That is only one player. Who else in the Reds ML system is going to be ready in that time? Not many, unless we are lucky.

I am hoping that Jay Bruce will proceed nicely, but I don't know much about him.

Krusty
02-05-2006, 11:04 AM
I am all for it, but...

Lets just say he blows through AA this year, and AAA next year. I still think he would be about a year and a half or so before he makes an impact with the Reds. That is why I said about 4 years. That is only one player. Who else in the Reds ML system is going to be ready in that time? Not many, unless we are lucky.

I am hoping that Jay Bruce will proceed nicely, but I don't know much about him.

If Bailey does start out at Chatanooga and pitches impressively, he might move up to Louisville and maybe to the Reds come September. Look at OF Chris Denorfia. He started at Chatanooga and was moved up to Louisville before coming to the Reds in September. You have to be careful about rushing pitchers but if Bailey pitches impressively, why hold him back?

KronoRed
02-05-2006, 11:17 AM
It wouldn't surprise me to see Bailey start at Double A Chatanooga.
Whoa now...rushing young pitchers is a bad idea.

High A..then AA..

4256 Hits
02-05-2006, 11:28 AM
To me winning is making the play-offs and IMO the Reds won't see that for at least 6 years. The offense is getting expensive and only EdE in line to replace them cheaply. The pitching is not good and there is little to replace them coming up in the minors that is much better. Add that w/ the prices that free agents are getting in the offseason the Reds would need a 90+ mil payroll to "buy" all the pieces they need.

Sorry I think that DanO set this team back that far.

The only way I can see it happening faster is if they are willing to tear the team down buy trading any player that will not be around to help them win in 2008; and the reds should pay a large chuck of any contract if it will help them get a better prospect in return. That includes Dunn if they are not able to reach a long term contract because the closer he get to being FA the lower the return. Basicly they have to pull a Florida Marlins. I would rather see wins over the next 4 years of 60, 70, 85 and 90 verses the most likely case of 72,78,75 and 79.

Boss-Hog
02-05-2006, 12:26 PM
If Bailey does start out at Chatanooga and pitches impressively, he might move up to Louisville and maybe to the Reds come September. Look at OF Chris Denorfia. He started at Chatanooga and was moved up to Louisville before coming to the Reds in September. You have to be careful about rushing pitchers but if Bailey pitches impressively, why hold him back?
We're talking about the same guy who who struggled with command, posting an ERA above 4.00 in low A Dayton, right?

Bailey should start in Dayton or Sarasota at the absolute highest. I know that won't happen, but then again, it's not like the Reds have a sound track record of developing pitching.

RedsIn07
02-05-2006, 12:44 PM
We're talking about the same guy who who struggled with command, posting an ERA above 4.00 in low A Dayton, right?

Bailey should start in Dayton or Sarasota at the absolute highest. I know that won't happen, but then again, it's not like the Reds have a sound track record of developing pitching.
I listened to one interview in which Bailey said due to the tandem starter system his arm wasn't feeling really good until the latter part of the season and that often in games were he was just getting comfortable he would get yanked. Whether or not this is true or it had any actual baring on his numbers I don't know.

KronoRed
02-05-2006, 01:00 PM
Even if true, High A to start, let him do some dominating first if he's that good.

westofyou
02-05-2006, 01:10 PM
You have to be careful about rushing pitchers but if Bailey pitches impressively, why hold him back?Because you have nothing to gain and everything to lose?

ochre
02-05-2006, 01:17 PM
A Bailey in hand is worth a Gruler and a Howington in the bush?

Krusty
02-05-2006, 01:37 PM
Well, if we're talking about three or four years before the Reds begin to turn things around, why keep anyone on the major league roster when we might get some young talent in return?

Why keep Adam Dunn if he is going to cost the team a fortune to sign a contract extension if this team will be looking at 2008 before we can talk about a contender? You move Dunn now and get two or three quality prospects that will make an impact come 2008 and beyond. Same for Kearns. Some guys you can't move like Griffey and Milton.

You want to keep Dunn and Kearns but what is the purpose of this team is looking three years down the road? They should take a page out of the Florida Marlins dismantling program and move them and get young, cheap talent that will be a part of the rebuilding process especially when the farm system should show something come 2008.

But I think Castanelli doesn't have the patience for three or four year plans. If that was the case Dan O'Brien would still be here. I think the next GM will be asked to make this team a contender while making sure the farm system is cranking out those prospects at the same time.

KronoRed
02-05-2006, 01:42 PM
Trading everyone for prospects it the best hope, signing free agents is a crap shoot and the Reds don't have that cash and hoping the farm system starts to help soon is a false hope.

Trade everyone, lose 100 games for a few years and then start to compete.

Krusty
02-05-2006, 01:43 PM
Trading everyone for prospects it the best hope, signing free agents is a crap shoot and the Reds don't have that cash and hoping the farm system starts to help soon is a false hope.

Trade everyone, lose 100 games for a few years and then start to compete.

So would you deal Adam Dunn to Cleveland for RHP Jake Westbrook, LHP Jeremy Sowers and maybe another prospect?

creek14
02-05-2006, 01:45 PM
Trade everyone, lose 100 games for a few years and then start to compete.
That would be suicide for RCast. Everyone is expecting him to make an impact, but not one where the Reds lose like they did under Carl. It would make for a fan exodus of Biblical proportions.

Krusty
02-05-2006, 01:53 PM
That would be suicide for RCast. Everyone is expecting him to make an impact, but not one where the Reds lose like they did under Carl. It would make for a fan exodus of Biblical proportions.

I just don't see Castanelli buying into five year rebuilding programs. As I said before, the next GM will have to make this team a contender while rebuilding the farm system at the same time.

If I had to pick the Reds next GM, I would say it would be Frank Wren. He was Dave Dombrowski's right hand man in Montreal and Florida and they had strong farm systems. He had a one year disaster in Baltimore as their GM but the way Peter Angelos goes through GMs, he is the Al Davis of MLB. Of course John Schurholz didn't hesitate to hire Wren as his right hand man in Atlanta. And for the past six years Atlanta has been cranking out the prospects while winning the NL East. I think that is the type of GM Castanelli is looking at.

westofyou
02-05-2006, 01:55 PM
Why keep Adam Dunn if he is going to cost the team a fortune to sign a contract extension if this team will be looking at 2008 before we can talk about a contender?Because a team can go a long way with a top 20 player and a smart GM.

Krusty
02-05-2006, 01:58 PM
Because a team can go a long way with a top 20 player and a smart GM.

So you're willing to go down the same path again the Reds did when they signed Junior to that longterm contract only to have it backfired with the numerous injuries the past five years?

So do you lock Dunn to a longterm deal and assume the same risks as you did with Junior?

westofyou
02-05-2006, 02:00 PM
So you're willing to go down the same path again the Reds did when they signed Junior to that longterm contract only to have it backfired with the numerous injuries the past five years?

So do you lock Dunn to a longterm deal and assume the same risks as you did with Junior?
Umm... world of difference in a 4 year contract for a 26 year old and a 10 year contract for a 30 year old.

Dunn has a healthy history and he's 26.

I'll pass on a firesale this team doesn't have enough to justify it yet, development improvement will enrich this system eventually. Selling low is baseball inertia.

4256 Hits
02-05-2006, 02:47 PM
But I think Castanelli doesn't have the patience for three or four year plans. If that was the case Dan O'Brien would still be here. I think the next GM will be asked to make this team a contender while making sure the farm system is cranking out those prospects at the same time.

I agree that Castanelli doesn't have the patience bet even if he did there would have no reason to keep DanO around because the Reds were further away from winning after he left than they were when he got here. The Reds could have gave DanO 15 years and never would have made the play-off he was just to far over his head.

M2
02-05-2006, 04:23 PM
If Bailey does start out at Chatanooga and pitches impressively, he might move up to Louisville and maybe to the Reds come September. Look at OF Chris Denorfia. He started at Chatanooga and was moved up to Louisville before coming to the Reds in September. You have to be careful about rushing pitchers but if Bailey pitches impressively, why hold him back?

Seeing that he didn't pitch all that impressively in low A last year, AA to start the season smacks of desperation.

As for why you hold him back, most pitchers aren't ready to deal against MLB hitters until the reach the age of 24. There are a few who get there earlier, but they tend to be the supremely dominant type in the minors. When Homer delivers a supremely dominant season, then I'd entertain the notion of advancing him quickly. The way you've planned it here, all you're doing is trying to figure out how quickly you can overwhelm the kid. The proper reaction to a successful pitching prospect would be to enjoy him on his long climb to the majors, not to make a frenzied attempt at ruining him.

DoogMinAmo
02-05-2006, 05:51 PM
They should take a page out of the Florida Marlins dismantling program and move them and get young, cheap talent that will be a part of the rebuilding process especially when the farm system should show something come 2008.



While the Marlins model is great for acquiring talent, it is hardly ideal for running a franchise. I feel if a firesale occurred, the fan base would plummet, and backlash would mount on RCast. Look what happened in Florida.

I feel the Reds just have to make it to the trading deadline at or near the top of the division this year (it is not unthinkable, they manage to do it nearly every year, hot start then fizzle) and RCast will prove his dedication. This immediate upgrade, as well as a showing in FA 2007, along with strong draft(s) will mean 1-2 years for the "turn around," at the major league level. This is going along with my understanding of RCast's impatience.

As for an organization-wide turnaround, it probably will take 4+ years for the talent in the minor leagues to be filled to the brim.

On a side note, only 4 teams make it to the playoffs each year in the NL and every team drafts every year, why are we so certain there is a method to success, and why would the Reds be the only one doing it?

StillFunkyB
02-05-2006, 06:35 PM
Well, if we're talking about three or four years before the Reds begin to turn things around, why keep anyone on the major league roster when we might get some young talent in return?

Why keep Adam Dunn if he is going to cost the team a fortune to sign a contract extension if this team will be looking at 2008 before we can talk about a contender? You move Dunn now and get two or three quality prospects that will make an impact come 2008 and beyond. Same for Kearns. Some guys you can't move like Griffey and Milton.

You want to keep Dunn and Kearns but what is the purpose of this team is looking three years down the road? They should take a page out of the Florida Marlins dismantling program and move them and get young, cheap talent that will be a part of the rebuilding process especially when the farm system should show something come 2008.

But I think Castanelli doesn't have the patience for three or four year plans. If that was the case Dan O'Brien would still be here. I think the next GM will be asked to make this team a contender while making sure the farm system is cranking out those prospects at the same time.

My answer is simple...I want my cake, and to eat it as well! :)

Falls City Beer
02-05-2006, 09:40 PM
Because you have nothing to gain and everything to lose?

I disagree. You may have nothing to gain by bringing him up too early, but you may not have all that much to lose, either.

Bailey doesn't project particularly well, IMO--his age means he'll likely never see MLB, no matter how slow the development. I'd throw him to the wolves and trust that my minor league restructuring does what it's supposed to do: which is, crank out pitchers with better pedigrees and projectibility than Bailey.

StillFunkyB
02-05-2006, 09:50 PM
I disagree. You may have nothing to gain by bringing him up too early, but you may not have all that much to lose, either.

Bailey doesn't project particularly well, IMO--his age means he'll likely never see MLB, no matter how slow the development. I'd throw him to the wolves and trust that my minor league restructuring does what it's supposed to do: which is, crank out pitchers with better pedigrees and projectibility than Bailey.

Yeah, I'm not counting on Bailey. IMHO, there isn't anything in the minors to get excited about.

If there is one player to try and groom, then it's HB. I guess I would rather see the Reds take their time with him and not have him pan out then to rush him where it seems like the risk of him failing is much much higher.

Falls City Beer
02-05-2006, 09:56 PM
Yeah, I'm not counting on Bailey. IMHO, there isn't anything in the minors to get excited about.

If there is one player to try and groom, then it's HB. I guess I would rather see the Reds take their time with him and not have him pan out then to rush him where it seems like the risk of him failing is much much higher.

Yeah, I wouldn't mind another year for him in the minors, I guess, so as to keep him around as a trading chip, but there's a very real risk there that he regresses or at best stalls out at low A, and becomes totally worthless to the Reds on every level. I guess the smart move would be to package him immediately after a potential strong start to this season. Whatever the case, if I'm GM, Bailey's no longer pitching in the Reds' minor league system by year's end. The guy's a sunk cost, IMO.

Spring~Fields
02-05-2006, 10:55 PM
Four or more years assuming none of the other teams improve in the time frame.

Aronchis
02-06-2006, 03:36 AM
Depends. The offense may have peeked and now needs broken up. Though If Dunn and Lopez can stay put at franchise level, that is good building blocks with EE coming up the backside.

Though players like Pena,Kearns and Griffey may/need to be phased out. If Austin adjusts and gets his mental facilities intact, he can be added to the group above. Pena needs to go. He doesn't play defense well enough to keep and his offense probably won't makeup for the lapses(unless he hits 60 homers) besides having gimpy legs. Griffey also needs to go. Freeing up some of his salary would be nice for other areas of the team and he is a old, aging player who's defense has collapsed and has a ugly injury history.

So I guess the resurrection of the Reds depends how we shift some pieces of the offense for pitching, defense and payflex, what younger players pan out and who doesn't, how many DanO era draftee's contribute, how the new GM's moves and signings pan out, Cast's payrolls ete ete ete................

It just depends. You can't put a timetable on it. It could be 2007 or 2010.

I do think this team should be moved and shaken up quite a bit. The new GM isn't going to be as conservative and weak as O'brien was. He followed Lindner's lack of action plans without much crying. If Cast stops the new GM from trading Griffey or Kearns for example, that is bad bad meddling.

REDREAD
02-07-2006, 10:38 AM
To me winning is making the play-offs and IMO the Reds won't see that for at least 6 years. The offense is getting expensive and only EdE in line to replace them cheaply. The pitching is not good and there is little to replace them coming up in the minors that is much better. Add that w/ the prices that free agents are getting in the offseason the Reds would need a 90+ mil payroll to "buy" all the pieces they need.

Sorry I think that DanO set this team back that far.
.

I agree wholeheartedly with your point. I think it's going to be longer than 4 years to resurrect the team. The farm is bare, and as you said, the core position players are getting older and more expensive.

I think it's going to get worse before it gets better, because the farm is going to have a huge draught of position players (as it does pitching now).

I don't even think there's enough talent on this team to do a complete blow-up and rebuild for 2008.. Although that would speed up the process, other than Dunn, Harang, and Lopez, we don't have that much highly coveted talent.

registerthis
02-07-2006, 11:41 AM
I picked four years, because of the state of disarray the club's farm system is in. It's putrid right now, and you can easily count on one hand the number of players currently in the system that could make any type of impact with the Reds--and, shoot, if Bailey doesn't pan out you may not even need one hand.

This team is a long ways off from putting forth and sustaining a competitive team. The Reds are not--and will likely never be--the kind of team built around high-priced free agent acquisitions, so the idea that we could simply go out and purchase the pitching talent needed to get this team over the competitive hump is far-fetched. If the Reds had superior defense and played in a pitching-friendly ballpark, perhaps you could argue that they could get by with an average rotation. Unfortunately, the Reds have neither of those things--and next to nothing in the pipeline. It's going to be awhile, methinks.

TOBTTReds
08-01-2006, 12:46 PM
Looking through archives and giving this a good 'ole bump. I know we haven't won for consecutives seasons or anything here, but just thought it was interesting.