View Full Version : Need help with pick #10 and 11!!!
02-07-2006, 12:00 PM
Could I get your guys opinion on this? Here is my situation. I am in a 10 team 7X7 roto keeper league and I have just been appointed the 10th pick in the draft. I took over a team that lost the past 2 years badly. This owner couldn't take it anymore so I took over. My keepers are Oswalt, Mauer and Konerko. Without getting into what players are owned and who gets drafted before me, I'll just list the top 10 that I will be there when I select 10th and 11th.
With me owning a 40HR guy, a top 10 SP and a top 3C, what direction should I go or what talent should I not pass up?
Suzuki, Soriano, Tejada, Peavy, P.Martinez, Helton, Sheffield, Pierre, Berkman, Rivera, Lidge, Kent, Sizemore, Beltran, R.Johnson
02-07-2006, 12:01 PM
Get a real hitter, Berkman would be who I would grab.
02-07-2006, 12:02 PM
Then Pedro, pitchers park and all.
02-07-2006, 12:13 PM
Peavy, healthy arm, pitchers park, and all.
02-07-2006, 12:20 PM
I'd go Peavy and Tejada
02-07-2006, 12:26 PM
I vote for Pedro.
02-07-2006, 02:20 PM
Pedro for 10, Kent for 11.
02-07-2006, 02:23 PM
Paul Willson looks tuff this year... Wait I am having a flashback from a year ago.
02-07-2006, 02:26 PM
Doesn't it seem like there are no #1 pick pitchers this year? Where has all the pitching gone? It has even dropped off from 4 years ago.
02-07-2006, 02:58 PM
Pitchers are generally riskier than hitters. Their performaces tend to fluctuate more than hitters (at least in Fantasy BB terms).
02-07-2006, 03:00 PM
Pedro just scares me with the injuries. It helps that you have Oswalt, but if Pedro gets hurt, yuck.
I'd list em like this personally.
5. Helton (due for a big comeback)
02-07-2006, 03:45 PM
Wow!! Guys I really appreciate the all the responses. I think I like the idea of Peavy over P.Martinez. I was thinking of Tejada, Helton, Berkman, Peavy and Soriano.
What does everyone think Beltran, Soriano and Sizemore will do this year?
02-07-2006, 03:51 PM
What does everyone think Beltran, Soriano and Sizemore will do this year?
Both Soriano and Beltran are taking huge offensive hits in their parks, Sizemore has a better upside and will slip lower in the draft as well.
02-07-2006, 04:27 PM
I've read three articles now that has Sizemore going in the 3rd round in most 12 team drafts. I'm thinking of targeting him with my 30th or 31st pick.
Given my draft position and a little luck I'm hoping with a result of this.
SP - Oswalt (OWN), Peavy (#11)
OF - Sizmore (#30)
SS - Tejada (#10)
1B - Konerko (Own)
C - Mauer (Own)
And 1 of Delgado, Carlos Lee, Matsui, A. Ramirez, Blalock, Chavez or Bonds with the 31st pick. Another bat that will give me close too 30 HR, 100 RBI, maybe 100 runs and 35+ doubles. That should give me a pretty good start?!?!? Maybe?!?!?
02-07-2006, 05:51 PM
I worry about taking Tejada so high, considering his drop-off after Palmeiro got caught with the juice.
02-08-2006, 02:19 PM
I'd take Peavy and Tejada as well.
02-08-2006, 02:33 PM
I would stay away from Tejada given his dramatically power free 2nd half last year. Personally I think taking pitching early is very risky, as pitchers are more injury, less reliable, and there are more pitching surprises to be had then there are really solid power bats. I would go with Berkman or Sheffield (I pref sheff b/c of the runs/rbi you can expect) and Beltran as he was playing hurt much of last year and the addition of Delgado and maturation of Wright should mean very good things for his numbers.
If you're dead set on a pitcher, I would take Peavy over Pedro or RJ for health reasons if nothing else. Their numbers could all be similar enough that health should be your biggest worry.
02-08-2006, 02:54 PM
I think a good idea to lock up a top pitcher if you're picking near the end of the first round or beginning of the 2nd round. They're usually worth it.
02-08-2006, 03:38 PM
With owning my staff ace(Oswalt) already should I wait on picking up another starter until the later rounds like 4, 5, 6 or ??
02-08-2006, 06:20 PM
Consider the potential of the pitchers versus hitters. There will still be pitchers coming back in Rd 3/4 who could win 15+ and give you soild ERA/WHIP (Harden, Sheets, Cliff Lee, Millwood). There won't be any guys who can hit .300 with 35 homer and 120 RBI. And at the end of the day, a bad year from Sheffield or Berkman, say .270/25/90, looks a whole lot better than a bad year from Pedro, say 10 wins, 3.90 ERA, only 24 starts.
I guess I'm speaking from the experience of having drafted Jason Schmidt and Randy Johnson in a very similar spot as you last year. I got as much out of Brett Myers and Aaron Harang as I did those two. I think the percentages of that scenario are much higher than an equivelent scenario involving hitters.
02-08-2006, 07:17 PM
I'd go Sheffield and Peavy but look for some speed right after that maybe Figgins or Pierre later. Sheff had more HR's RBI's and stole 10 bases better pick than Tejada.
02-09-2006, 08:43 AM
I will look to see if Pierre is there in the 3/4 rounds, Figgins is already owned. RedsManRick, good point about Schmidt/Johnson - Harang/Myers. I too had Webb/Garland/Colon after the 10th round and won nearly all pitching categories.
Speaking of last year, here's another question?
Last year I got 15 HR, 65 RBI, 55 Runs and a 255avg. Out of my total 3rd basemen played. Yeah, you guessed it...I drafted Scott Rolen.
What about 3rd base with pick 10/11? Arod, Wright, Figgins, Cantu and Ensberg are all owned or will all be drafted before me. Should I consider A.Ramirez with my 1st 2 picks? By the time I draft 20 spots later I can see missing out on him, Blalock and Chavez. Or is Rolen, Glaus, C.Jones,?? A better value in the later rounds?
02-09-2006, 10:44 AM
You've just stated that 5 3rd baseman were kept in a 10 team league and then you named 6 3B who all have similar value. Take yourself out of the equation and the only way one of those 6 isn't available at 30/31 is if the 4 other teams without a 3B draft one from your list and then two teams draft backup 3Bs before getting starters elsewhere. Think that's likely?
That's the approach I think you need to take. Look to see where other team's are deficient based on the keepers and try to project what kind of talent will still be available by pick 30. If it really looks like there will be no true #1 starters left, maybe you should use 1 pick on a starter. Maybe getting Mariano Rivera is worth it to lock up a solid position in saves.
Keeper leagues give you the unique opporuntity to project the first couple round of the draft. Use that to your advantage.
02-11-2006, 04:07 PM
Peavy and Tejada
02-14-2006, 12:15 PM
I'd go with Peavy and Berkman.
02-14-2006, 12:28 PM
depends on what the 14 categories are.
02-14-2006, 04:11 PM
AVG, Runs, RBI, HR, SB, 2B, OPS,
W, L, K, Saves, Whip, Holds, ERA
02-14-2006, 04:26 PM
Last year I was in a non-keeper league with these same people. They setup that league the same way. The one category that killed me was 2B. I was dead last in doubles (20 away from 9th place among 10 teams). But teams 9 thru 5 were all within 10 doubles awayfrom each other.
That's one reason why I'm thinking about 5 players primarily with my picks. Sheffield, Peavy, Berkman, Helton and Tejada. Helton and Tejada were among the top 8 in doubles. Those guys might not give me SB, but 2B galore!! So you can see why I'm putting a lot of thought in 2B.
By the way I came in second place. I lost by 6 points.
Do you think it was just dumb luck I got burnt? Does anyone else target guys with doubles?
02-14-2006, 07:19 PM
The pitching categories way overvalue relievers.
The offensive categories would seem to slight favor power.
Focus on relievers and quality power hitters.
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