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buckeyenut
02-14-2006, 10:58 AM
I have heard a lot of people talk about Felipe Lopez's defense being downright awful in other threads. Was wondering if someone could better explain to me how you are determining this, as I thought he had a pretty good range factor and his # of errors wasn't that bad.

If his defense is that awful, is it a situation where there is still room for natural improvement (like I see with Wily Mo who has all the physical skills needed to be a top notch CF but needs a lot of game experience)? Or is it something that there is little hope for him to get better on over time and he needs to be looking for a new position?

KronoRed
02-14-2006, 11:15 AM
He'd be a GREAT 2B

flyer85
02-14-2006, 11:25 AM
ZR, FRAA, RF

Pretty much every defensive metric says that Lopez is a bad SS. Hopefully he will improve because it sure seems like the athletic ability is there.

ochre
02-14-2006, 11:29 AM
ZR, FRAA, RF

Pretty much every defensive metric says that Lopez is a bad SS. Hopefully he will improve because it sure seems like the athletic ability is there.
Given his relative youth and athletic ability, I think he's the type you give the chance to improve. Given the conjectural observation of how much more ground he appeared to cover compared to Aurilia last year and the fact that Aurilia's numbers appear better, it could be nothing more than learning to position himself better based on the game situation.

TRF
02-14-2006, 11:42 AM
I think his ankle injury played alot into it.

The kid wasn't supposed to ever play again. It was a nasty break. I think we'll see an improvement. That he played at the level he did last year, is remarkable.

westofyou
02-14-2006, 11:46 AM
I don't think he goes to his right very well, in fact he seems to be better on fly balls than grounders when they go to his right. With EE he can cheat more towards 2nd, with RA the weakness is revealed.

Put him at 2nd or probably even 3rd and his fielding reputation will be enhanced.

Cooper
02-14-2006, 12:45 PM
Dave Pinto has a really good defensive metric on his website (baseball musings)--he rates Lopex in the bottom 25% of all SS's.

SteelSD
02-14-2006, 01:43 PM
ZR, FRAA, RF

Pretty much every defensive metric says that Lopez is a bad SS. Hopefully he will improve because it sure seems like the athletic ability is there.

Actually, his ZR (.836) puts him pretty near average. And when we understand how Errors factor in to ZR, his actual range appears to be near the current level of guys like Jimmy Rollins and Orlando Cabrera.

Now if we could only get reliable UZR numbers ever again...sigh...

Cooper
02-14-2006, 02:21 PM
on the baseball primer site yesterday --someone mentioned they were able to get UZR numbers --but it wasn't clear how they got them --i thought they were proprietary...?...

Anyways, Pinto's metric is as close to UZR that i've seen ...in fact, MGL said so himself...

princeton
02-14-2006, 02:35 PM
same post that I've been making for 3-4 years:

He's a fine third baseman and will hit enough for the position (hey, that was right);

he can play short for a bad team and actually helps to make them bad (right a second time)

he just might be able to play second for a good team if you pair him with a really good glove at short (and it's still worth a try)

westofyou
02-14-2006, 02:39 PM
same post that I've been making for 3-4 years:

He's a fine third baseman and will hit enough for the position (hey, that was right);

he can play short for a bad team and actually helps to make them bad (right a second time)

he just might be able to play second for a good team if you pair him with a really good glove at short (and it's still worth a try)

That's why you get the big bucks.

StillFunkyB
02-14-2006, 04:54 PM
I think it's the flashes he shows that make him appear better than he is. That play he made @ Wrigley a couple seasons ago was one of the greatest I had ever seen.

reds44
02-14-2006, 05:31 PM
He'd be a GREAT 2B
He as a helluva arm taht would go to waste at 2nd. I think his best spot would be 3rd, but right nor he is the best defensive option we have at short.

Cooper
02-14-2006, 05:53 PM
1. We got EE at 3rd and he looks like he'll be a really good defensive 3rd baseman so it makes no sense to move FeLo there.

2. It takes a good arm to turn a dp and Pokey's greatest skill was his rocket arm turning the dp...having a good arm at 2nd isn't a waste, it's an advantage.

3. Right now if Felo plays SS and Aurilla plays 2nd -they are both weak positions --if you reverse them then only one position is weak (SS) whereas 2nd becomes strong. Good teams don't do crap like this,but it may be a slight upgrade if you do such a thing. I'm hoping, at least, there's logic in this kind of move.

reds44
02-14-2006, 05:56 PM
1. We got EE at 3rd and he looks like he'll be a really good defensive 3rd baseman so it makes no sense to move FeLo there.

I never said they should move him there, but I just think that would be his best spot. I am not sure what player you were watching, but isn't EEs weakness defense?

Hopefully we have a great 3b/SS combo with EE and FeLo, and I don't want to see FeLo moved there.

TRF
02-14-2006, 06:00 PM
1. We got EE at 3rd and he looks like he'll be a really good defensive 3rd baseman so it makes no sense to move FeLo there.

2. It takes a good arm to turn a dp and Pokey's greatest skill was his rocket arm turning the dp...having a good arm at 2nd isn't a waste, it's an advantage.

3. Right now if Felo plays SS and Aurilla plays 2nd -they are both weak positions --if you reverse them then only one position is weak (SS) whereas 2nd becomes strong. Good teams don't do crap like this,but it may be a slight upgrade if you do such a thing. I'm hoping, at least, there's logic in this kind of move.

Or just play freel at 2B. He's got range. He needs reps. Plus he has an idea of how to get on base too. that should have some say in this.

Some time back I suggested Freel at 3B, EE at SS, and FeLo at 2B.

I was nearly laughed off the board, but to me it still works.

Cooper
02-14-2006, 06:02 PM
I was watching EE --is range is fanastic. He started 2 (10 v 12) less double plays than Randa....Randa played 2.5 more innings than EE.

EE will make errors -his range will more than make up for that.

vaticanplum
02-14-2006, 06:06 PM
I don't think he goes to his right very well, in fact he seems to be better on fly balls than grounders when they go to his right. With EE he can cheat more towards 2nd, with RA the weakness is revealed.


Jeter was the same way when he was younger. It's one reason I thought the Rodriguez trade was smart even though it required him to learn a new position. And Jeter's ended up a pretty decent shortstop.

Cooper
02-14-2006, 06:07 PM
TRF --i ain't laughing --that kind of arrangement may work if they had to time to play those positions --my only fear is that you would then have a whole infield at new positions (dunn at first, felo -2nd, ee at ss, and freel at 3rd)....i really believe any proposition is not a bad one --this team needs to think creatively.

reds44
02-14-2006, 06:16 PM
TRF --i ain't laughing --that kind of arrangement may work if they had to time to play those positions --my only fear is that you would then have a whole infield at new positions (dunn at first, felo -2nd, ee at ss, and freel at 3rd)....i really believe any proposition is not a bad one --this team needs to think creatively.
Why move 2 guys to different positions when you don't have to? None of us know if Felipe can play 2B or EE can play SS. You arrangemnt doesn't make sense.

TRF
02-14-2006, 06:33 PM
Sure it does. If you accept the fact the Reds are not going to win this year. EE played some short at Dayton, and we know he has the range and the arm. FeLo's range is somewhat more limited, due in large part to injury. He's got a strong arm, and would likely make a fantastic 2B, a position he has played at the major league level. Freel has dynamite range at third, quick feet, but a bad habit of looking at the ball before he throws. His arm is good enough for third.

Deensively in a year, this might be the best alignment.

RedsManRick
02-14-2006, 06:34 PM
Maybe Kearns can play 3b.................

KronoRed
02-14-2006, 06:43 PM
Maybe Kearns can play 3b.................
:laugh:

Cyclone792
02-17-2006, 07:00 PM
on the baseball primer site yesterday --someone mentioned they were able to get UZR numbers --but it wasn't clear how they got them --i thought they were proprietary...?...

Anyways, Pinto's metric is as close to UZR that i've seen ...in fact, MGL said so himself...

Yep, Pinto's got some new stuff updated, including a PMR team runs saved metric. Very interesting, and not all that surprising to see our Reds ranked dead last (check the link to see the table).

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/cat_probabilistic_model_of_range.php


So far with the range calculations I've been interested in the probability of getting to a batted ball. I'm going to change gears a bit and try to look at runs saved instead. The methodolgy is the same in principle; predict how many runs should be expected given the balls in play, and compare that to how many were actually allowed.

Of course, both these numbers are difficult to calculate. What I'm going to do is use a version of the Bill James runs created formula that appears in The Bill James Handbook 2005. The formula I'm usings is (Times On - GDP)*(Weighted Total Bases)/Balls in Play. I'm not making an adjustment for sac hits or sac flys. I am however, counting all non-out balls in play as a time on base. I'm also counting all non-out balls in play in the total base calculation. In this case, if a player reaches on a 1-base error or a failed fielder's choice, that's the same as a single. If they reach on a three-base error, that's the same as a triple. Since we're measuring range, errors should hurt the teams that commit them.

So I add up all the actual results on balls in play against a team, and calculate actual runs created against (RCA). I also add up all the predictions for the ball (the chance of a single, double, triple, home run, GDP or out) and use that to predict the number of expected runs.