PDA

View Full Version : Dunn predictions for 2006?



OnBaseMachine
02-15-2006, 07:59 AM
With pitchers and catchers reporting tomorrow - and Dunn signing yesterday, I'm starting to get that baseball fever back again. I can't wait for the season to start. I feel that the offensive will be a great again this year, led by Adam Dunn. While Dunn has posted two of the better offensive years in Reds history the last two seasons, I think 2006 is when he takes it to a whole new level. I'm was curious to see if anyone else agrees.

So, what are your predictions for Dunn's 2006 season?

My goes like this:

.282 BA
.430 OBP
.595 SLG
1.025 OPS
49 Homeruns
134 walks(Reds record)

Finishes top 3 in NL MVP voting.

TOBTTReds
02-15-2006, 11:06 AM
.258 avg
.390 OBP
.550 SLG
.940
43 HR

Finishes with a couple votes in MVP (people who vote thinks he K's too much, and the Reds will need to be near the top of the standings to get a lot of votes for him)

Edit: Didn't realize how close my prediction was to his #'s last year. I'm sticking with it though, and I'll say 115 RBI (he wont bat 5th or 6th that much this year).

RedsManRick
02-15-2006, 11:10 AM
.271 avg
.406 OBP
.580 SLG
.986
48 HR
113 RBI

Only scratches up a few MVP votes b/c the Reds finish 5th or 6th in the division. I just hope they bat him 3rd instead of 4th. We need to make better use of that OBP and pitchers are much less likely to pitch around him with Jr. behind him.

Hondo
02-15-2006, 11:21 AM
With pitchers and catchers reporting tomorrow - and Dunn signing yesterday, I'm starting to get that baseball fever back again. I can't wait for the season to start. I feel that the offensive will be a great again this year, led by Adam Dunn. While Dunn has posted two of the better offensive years in Reds history the last two seasons, I think 2006 is when he takes it to a whole new level. I'm was curious to see if anyone else agrees.

So, what are your predictions for Dunn's 2006 season?

My goes like this:

.282 BA
.430 OBP
.595 SLG
1.025 OPS
49 Homeruns
134 walks(Reds record)

Finishes top 3 in NL MVP voting.

You're 4 HR off...He Breaks Fosters Club Record and finishes with 53...

JaredRoberts.com

TeamBoone
02-15-2006, 11:26 AM
According to Narron (when he was interviewed last week), he projects he'll be batting fifth (Jr 3rd, Austin 4th, Dunn 5th).

Hopefully, he'll change that up.

Red Leader
02-15-2006, 11:27 AM
I'll go with:

.274 avg
.423 obp
.584 slg
1.007 OPS
52 HR
126 RBI
123 BB

jmbraun773
02-15-2006, 11:32 AM
.279 avg
.410 obp
.590 slg
1.000 ops
51 hr
134 rbi
115 bb

I also hopes they switch up that line-up and have him batting 3rd.

Hondo
02-15-2006, 11:35 AM
Yeah

Freel
Lopez
Dunn
Kearns
Griffey
Pena
LaRue
Encarancion

Griffey can Hold his own and Protect AK, Dunn needs to be Scoring RUNS in front of AK and Griffey!!!

JaredRoberts.com

KronoRed
02-15-2006, 11:38 AM
According to Narron (when he was interviewed last week), he projects he'll be batting fifth (Jr 3rd, Austin 4th, Dunn 5th).

Not that again :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

His RBI total will be an enigma if Narron buries him again in some insane "break up the leftie" stragety, but for the rest of his numbers I guess

.270 avg
.420 OBP
.575 slg
.995 OPS
46 HR
? RBI
112 BB

KronoRed
02-15-2006, 11:39 AM
Oh..this is how the linup should be 5 out of every 7 games

Freel
Lopez
Dunn
JR
Kearns
Pena
EE
LaRue

BRM
02-15-2006, 11:44 AM
According to Narron (when he was interviewed last week), he projects he'll be batting fifth (Jr 3rd, Austin 4th, Dunn 5th).

Hopefully, he'll change that up.

Who hits behind Dunn? Aurilia? Pena? Dunn will walk 120+ times this year.

RedsManRick
02-15-2006, 11:46 AM
Maybe Narron is worried about Dunn's inability to hit a sac fly. We wouldn't want him getting an extra base hit with a guy on 3rd and 1 out when I sac fly would do.......

Seriously, I think some managers forget that if the guy in the 3 hole walks with guys already on base, that's actually a good thing, not a bad one -- especially if you have a solid contact guy behind him.

KronoRed
02-15-2006, 11:46 AM
Who hits behind Dunn? Aurilia? Pena? Dunn will walk 120+ times this year.
Hmm..pitch to Dunn or K Pena on 3 curve balls with Dunn left on 1st

;)

KearnsyEars
02-15-2006, 12:03 PM
.273 avg
.413 OBP
.585 slg
.998 OPS
51 HR *career high
115 RBI *Career High
141 BB
768 Cans of Skoal/Copenhagen Snuff
159 Games

westofyou
02-15-2006, 12:09 PM
.273 avg
.413 OBP
.585 slg
.998 OPS
51 HR *career high
115 RBI *Career High
141 BB
768 Cans of Skoal/Copenhagen Snuff
159 Games

If a guy hits over .270 and walks 140 times there is no way his OPS is below 1.000

BTW here are the 4 times the 50 plus 140 walks and .270 BA has ever happened.


AGE YEAR AGE AVG HR BB OPS
1 Barry Bonds 2001 36 .328 73 177 1.379
2 Mark McGwire 1998 34 .299 70 162 1.222
3 Babe Ruth 1921 26 .378 59 145 1.359
4 Babe Ruth 1920 25 .376 54 150 1.379

TeamSelig
02-15-2006, 12:20 PM
I think he will OPS just a notch over 1.000... bat in the low .260s, with near 50 HRs, give or take a few.

Highlifeman21
02-15-2006, 02:28 PM
While I love the big donkey, or whatever they are calling him these days, I just think these stat predictions are a little too optimistic, especially with Jerry Narron mismanaging him. Right now, he's slated for the 5 hole, which means he'll get no protection behind him, and with Griffey and Kearns honestly not doing much in the past 2 years, won't get much protection ahead of him. Might as well go back to the Bob Boone days where he was known to be found in the leadoff and #2 slot... Anywho...

.253 AVG
.387 OBP
.510 SLG
.897 OPS
39 HR
93 RBI
121 BB
150 games

I think the world of this guy, but I feel mismanaging the Reds will ultimately result in less than potential numbers from the young studs.

RedLegSuperStar
02-15-2006, 03:26 PM
.268 Avg
.405 OBP
.583 SLG
.988
50 HR (Predicting he'll hit 4 HR's In one game)
118 RBI

Puffy
02-15-2006, 03:43 PM
.279 Ba
.416 Obp
.619 Slg
48 Hr
106 Rbi
1.035 Ops

RedsManRick
02-15-2006, 03:54 PM
Dunn's ISO chart. You can expect somewhere around .300 (Slug% - Avg).

For sake of reference, Dunn's numbers from last year:

.247 BA
.387 OBP
.540 SLG
.927 OPS
40 Homeruns
114 walks(Reds record)

About 30% of his were homers, so if he kept that rate and simply upped his batting average, he would have to hit .308 to hit 50 bombs.

westofyou
02-15-2006, 03:57 PM
114 walks(Reds record)


WALKS YEAR BB
1 Joe Morgan 1975 132
2 Adam Dunn 2002 128
3 Joe Morgan 1974 120
4 Joe Morgan 1977 117
5 Joe Morgan 1972 115
T6 Joe Morgan 1976 114
T6 Adam Dunn 2005 114
8 Joe Morgan 1973 111
9 Adam Dunn 2004 108
10 Pete Rose 1974 106

RedLegSuperStar
02-15-2006, 04:09 PM
WALKS YEAR BB
1 Joe Morgan 1975 132
2 Adam Dunn 2002 128
3 Joe Morgan 1974 120
4 Joe Morgan 1977 117
5 Joe Morgan 1972 115
T6 Joe Morgan 1976 114
T6 Adam Dunn 2005 114
8 Joe Morgan 1973 111
9 Adam Dunn 2004 108
10 Pete Rose 1974 106

WOY bringing out the stats.. Someones on top of his game

TeamBoone
02-15-2006, 04:57 PM
Not that again :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

His RBI total will be an enigma if Narron buries him again in some insane "break up the leftie" stragety, but for the rest of his numbers I guess

It appears so; exasperating isn't it? That said, maybe someone will enlighten him... though Krivsky said what happens on the field/in the dugout is Jerry's decision (or something to that effect).

And someone asked who will bat after Dunn... in that interview, he said Pena.

BRM
02-15-2006, 04:58 PM
And someone asked who will bat after Dunn... in that interview, he said Pena.

That was me, thanks. Dunn may very well break the Reds BB record this season.

TeamBoone
02-15-2006, 05:02 PM
Right now, he's slated for the 5 hole, which means he'll get no protection behind him, and with Griffey and Kearns honestly not doing much in the past 2 years, won't get much protection ahead of him.

Actually, Griffey had a good year in 2005. He certainly wasn't a hindrance.

I do agree that Adam should bat higher. He's NEVER had much protection but excels in spite of it. Just think if he had some....

reds44
02-15-2006, 05:08 PM
Okay this may be an odd idea, but let's see what you think. If the theory behind splitting up the lefties means Dunn bats 5th why don't we try this lineup?

Freel
Griffey
Lopez
Dunn
Kearns
Pena
LaRue
EE

thoughts?

VI_RedsFan
02-15-2006, 05:25 PM
.272 BA
.397 OBP
.636 SLG
1.033 OPS
50 Homers
125 RBI
111 Runs
121 Walks

KronoRed
02-15-2006, 05:32 PM
thoughts?
I like that lineup, not a fan of JR in the 2 spot due to the lack of RBI opportunities, but another old school notion seems to be that middle infielders bat 2nd so we can't have Lopez that low :help:

DoogMinAmo
02-15-2006, 07:26 PM
According to Narron (when he was interviewed last week), he projects he'll be batting fifth (Jr 3rd, Austin 4th, Dunn 5th).

Hopefully, he'll change that up.

If that doesn't scream breakout performance from Kearns, nothing does.

Highlifeman21
02-16-2006, 12:55 PM
Actually, Griffey had a good year in 2005. He certainly wasn't a hindrance.

I do agree that Adam should bat higher. He's NEVER had much protection but excels in spite of it. Just think if he had some....


I'm basing this on the fact pitchers no longer fear Griffey like they did in the 90s. I love Griffey, and have kicked my own ass in the past few years thinking we should dump him and his contract but you're right, he did put up better than expected numbers in 2005, but I would much rather see Dunn batting in front of the new #3 b/c IMO Dunn causes more fear with guys on the bump than Griffey, which will translate to arms going around 44 to get to 3.

In my dreamland, the Reds lineup looks something like this, which should maximize production:

Freel (solid OBP, good speed)
Lopez (could switch with Freel, but I think he offers more front end protection to the 3 hole)
Dunn (Prototypical 3 slot hitter)
Griffey (Clean up, where he belongs)
Kearns (Should bounce back this year, put up solid numbers to leave him in the 5 slot)
Pena (Unfortunately with his knack for free swinging you have to slide him down until he learns to take a walk and not try and hit it out of the park every trip to the dish)
EE (This will be his first full year, let him learn pitchers in the 7 spot)
LaRue/Valentin (Anything you get out of this platoon is an added bonus, but neither of these guys should bat anywhere but 8th all year)


Hatteberg should be our first PH off the bench, followed by RichA and then probably Denorfia, but unfortunately DanO committed us to ToWo, so unless ToWo proves to be as absolutely worthless as he really is in spring training, we're gonna be stuck with a mess in the IF of EE,RichA,ToWo and Freel all trying to get some PAs.

Should prove interesting, unless someone wants to fund a trip for me to head down to Florida and cut ToWo's hamstring!

dougdirt
02-16-2006, 01:30 PM
.259 AVG
.396 OBP
.558 SLG
44 home runs
109 walks
9 errors

RedsManRick
02-16-2006, 01:33 PM
Oops -- sorry WoY. That's what I get for copy & pasting. Meant to use the basic format... not copy the (Reds record) part.

reds44
02-16-2006, 05:02 PM
I kind of like the idea of batting EE 7th instead of 8th also. It would be hard to throw a guy out there in basically his 1st year batting right in front of the pitcher. The pitchers could basically throw him all the junk that they wanted. LaRue is a much more "professional" hitter and I will think it would be better if he bat in front of the pitcher instead of EE.