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View Full Version : Homer Bailey: Could he make the Big League Club Now?



KearnsyEars
02-17-2006, 02:43 PM
Question for you Red Zone die hards like myself. Any chance we see this kid at the ML level out of ST? Any chance he gets promoted at all this year? If he has the arm, why not do it? He sounds every bit as ready as Wagner was when wagner came on the scene.

Red Leader
02-17-2006, 02:46 PM
No where near ready. 2 years, at least.

If you want him out of baseball in 2 years and rooming with Ryan Leaf, bring him up now.

KearnsyEars
02-17-2006, 02:47 PM
Well from what I hear he has the arm? So are you worried about his maturity and development? How old of a kid is he?

RedsManRick
02-17-2006, 02:49 PM
4.43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in LOW A. I think the question is whether he could pitch in AA right now, not the majors.

Wagner was older and much more polished.

KearnsyEars
02-17-2006, 02:51 PM
not to change subject within thread...and those stats above tell me your right he isn't ready, but has anyone heard if Wagner's fastball has regained velocity. I don't know if it was the big league beer nights or what but Wagner lost his fastball last season. I am worried about him getting on track.

Red Leader
02-17-2006, 02:53 PM
Well from what I hear he has the arm? So are you worried about his maturity and development? How old of a kid is he?

He turns 20 on May 3rd of this year. 20.

He still has a lot of work to do before he's major league ready. He has velocity on his fastball of a major leaguer, but not the command of it. He has a curveball that is pretty good, too, but consistency is not there. He doesn't have an advanced third pitch at all.

KearnsyEars
02-17-2006, 02:55 PM
if he starts hot and gets a third pitch, I'd love to see him get a shot as a youngster sometime this year.

paintmered
02-17-2006, 02:58 PM
Homer's ETA: 2009-2010.

No, he's not ready. He's not even close.

reds44
02-17-2006, 02:58 PM
I don't want to see Homer up here at all this year. I have seen to many of our pitchers be rushed.

KronoRed
02-17-2006, 03:22 PM
Not near ready.

We need pitching but rushing him is not the answer

TRF
02-17-2006, 03:24 PM
No where near ready. 2 years, at least.

If you want him out of baseball in 2 years and rooming with Ryan Leaf, bring him up now.

Now this is funny. Ryan Leaf was just hired by West Texas A&M as QB Coach.

Now that is falling a loooong way.

Spitball
02-18-2006, 10:23 AM
Originally Posted by KearnsyEars

not to change subject within thread...and those stats above tell me your right he isn't ready, but has anyone heard if Wagner's fastball has regained velocity. I don't know if it was the big league beer nights or what but Wagner lost his fastball last season. I am worried about him getting on track.

Wagner is probably an excellent example of why the Reds shouldn't rush Bailey. I hope the new regime has a better plan for Wagner because I think the old one tried to rush him for their own selfish reasons.

When he came out of Univ. of Houston it was obvious his mechanics were not conducive to a long career. First, there were quotes saying the Reds wouldn't mess with his mechanics. Then they began messing. Then he had location problems. Then he had failures (0 for career in save opportunities). Then he had shoulder inflamation.

Wagner has some rough edges. His mechanics are an issue. Can he stay healthy and have major league command pitching with such a violent motion? Can he get batters out if he is changed? Should these questions be ironed out at the major league level? Not in my opinion.

KronoRed
02-18-2006, 12:57 PM
Agreed, Wagner needs to go to AAA for the entire year.

KearnsyEars
02-19-2006, 08:12 PM
Or at least half the year. I just hope his fastball is over 90 again.

westofyou
02-19-2006, 10:44 PM
Here's your Reds in the expansion era who pitched at age 20 or less.


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1969-2005

INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP AGE
1 Don Gullett 1971 218 20
2 Don Gullett 1970 78 19
3 Mario Soto 1977 60.2 20
4 Manny Sarmiento 1976 43.2 20
5 Milt Wilcox 1970 22.1 20
6 Ryan Wagner 2003 21.2 20
7 Rosario Rodriguez 1990 10.1 20
8 Rosario Rodriguez 1989 4.1 19


Gullett was a young LH with control in a pitching era and Soto's first season in the bigs was ugly and pretty at points.

But they real question is do you want to start his clock for that?

flyer85
02-19-2006, 10:48 PM
DanO and his drafting of HS arms set the Reds up to wait until 2009 or beyond for them becoming productive major league pitchers(if they ever do).

Caveat Emperor
02-20-2006, 11:20 AM
But they real question is do you want to start his clock for that?

Bottom line point right here.

Even if Bailey could pitch at replacement level for the squad as a 20 year old, the Reds would start the arbitration/FA clock on him prematurely. Instead of being a polished prospect in 2008 that the Reds can control until 2014, he has to work out his kinks at the ML level and the Reds lose him a full 2 years early, missing more of his best years of service time.

captainmorgan07
02-20-2006, 06:09 PM
give him a year or 2 he'll be a stud just dont' rush so we don't have another brian reith disaster

Matt700wlw
02-20-2006, 06:51 PM
No where near ready. 2 years, at least.

If you want him out of baseball in 2 years and rooming with Ryan Leaf, bring him up now.

Ryan Leaf got a coaching job last week!

I don't remember where...

KronoRed
02-20-2006, 06:53 PM
West Texas A&M


Better then Cleburn

Betterread
02-20-2006, 08:14 PM
I don't think that he is ready for the following reasons:
1. he has only two ML level pitches - he needs two more
2. he hasn't shown that he fits a role on a ML pitching staff - he does not have experience as a closer or set-up man and as a starter his longest outings last year was 5 or 6 innings.
3. he has no experience with ML hitters - we don't know if and how he will get them out.
4. He should be concentrating on learning the game and his development, not worrying about expectations (which elevate once you make the ML team - making it through the minors is the easy part in terms of pressure).