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TRF
02-20-2006, 11:56 AM
Which player do the Reds need to take his game to the next level the most? For me the answer is: Brandon Claussen.

Claussen needs to make the same leap in performance that Harang did last year. If his numbers come close to Harangs 2005, then we have the makings of a rotation starting to happen. Wilson will not be with the club in '07, and may not be there this year either. Dave Williams is under contract for this year I believe, but the reds own his rights for a while. Milton... sigh.

So for me the biggest improvement needs to come from Claussen.

Jpup
02-20-2006, 12:00 PM
Kearns. I would also say that as far as "needing" to step up, Eric Milton would be a good candidate.

Red in Chicago
02-20-2006, 12:42 PM
i kind of agree with kearns as the guy who needs to deliver...lots of potential, which the reds keep telling everyone, but not much has been produced yet...he needs to stay healthy and get the job done, or we need to part ways with him and move on...keeping young talent strictly based on what "might be" as opposed to what "is" seems to hurt this team...

KronoRed
02-20-2006, 12:45 PM
Kearns and Pena

Newport Red
02-20-2006, 12:54 PM
If he can improve to below average - Milton.

Betterread
02-20-2006, 01:07 PM
We need Kearns, Pena, Encarnacion, Wagner to play to their potential as consistent, healthy ML team starters with large roles on the team.
We need Dunn to transition from a large role to a team-leading role as an elite runproducer.
History tells us it is unrealistic to expect for all of these players to take these steps-up, but it is February and one can only hope.

TOBTTReds
02-20-2006, 01:25 PM
Milton, Williams, Wilson, Claussen in that order. After that, Wagner, Coffey, then Kearns.

Even if Kearns struggles, our offense will be good, and our pitching will be bad. That is why I chose all the others in front of him and any other offensive player.

traderumor
02-20-2006, 01:35 PM
It doesn't matter. 70 win teams need an influx of talent, not someone to step up.

TRF
02-20-2006, 01:54 PM
Influx happens when 70 win teams demonstrate they have something to trade. A Pena or Kearns stepping up this year could bring that influx.

westofyou
02-20-2006, 02:07 PM
We need Dunn to transition from a large role to a team-leading role as an elite runproducer.

He's already there.

This team needs other players to jump up to the tier below that.


SEASON
2005
RBI >= 100
RUNS >= 100
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria

EXTRA BASE HITS EBH RBI R RC/G AGE
1 Derrek Lee 99 107 120 5.68 29
2 David Ortiz 88 148 119 4.07 29
3 Mark Teixeira 87 144 112 3.02 25
4 Jason Bay 82 101 110 3.72 26
T5 Alfonso Soriano 81 104 102 1.03 29
T5 Albert Pujols 81 117 129 4.89 25
T7 Alex Rodriguez 78 130 124 5.33 29
T7 Miguel Cabrera 78 116 106 2.70 22
9 Adam Dunn 77 101 107 2.66 25
10 Manny Ramirez 76 144 112 3.12 33
11 Hideki Matsui 71 116 108 1.64 31
12 Jeff Kent 65 105 100 1.65 37
13 Bobby Abreu 62 102 104 2.47 31
14 Gary Sheffield 61 123 104 2.42 36

Spring~Fields
02-20-2006, 02:07 PM
I think that any with the Reds presenting themselves and that represent themselves by being titled pitcher, pitching coach or pitching instructor needs to step up. It is way beyond my scope how they have been such underachievers for so long and made it as far as they have to date.

traderumor
02-20-2006, 02:11 PM
Influx happens when 70 win teams demonstrate they have something to trade. A Pena or Kearns stepping up this year could bring that influx.Putting the finger in the dike.

Cyclone792
02-20-2006, 02:33 PM
We need Dunn to transition from a large role to a team-leading role as an elite runproducer.



Dunn Win Shares

2001: 10
2002: 21
2003: 13
2004: 32
2005: 28

Career WS/162: 25.49


List of Hall of Fame 1B and/or LF that threw up a 24-27 win shares mark per 162 games: Carl Yastrzemski, Tim Raines (he'll make it), Willie Stargell, Billy Williams, Joe Medwick, Goose Goslin, Ralph Kiner, Zack Wheat, Harmon Killebrew and Willie McCovey

I'd say those guys above were all pretty elite. Counting only 2004 and 2005, Dunn's averaged 30 win shares per 162 games. That list of hitters reaches legendary.

Falls City Beer
02-20-2006, 02:37 PM
The fact that Claussen's likely to remain with the team all season makes me select him as the one most needing to step up.

Milton? Lost cause. I'd be happy if he just stepped out.

TRF
02-20-2006, 02:38 PM
Putting the finger in the dike.

nope. demonstrating they have value. And after last year, all they showed was ????

traderumor
02-20-2006, 03:21 PM
nope. demonstrating they have value. And after last year, all they showed was ????Just answering the question. I don't see any one player's fortunes, good or bad, being a large contributor to making a difference between a good or bad season for the team. The Reds are not a team of unfulfilled potential, they are a team lacking one of the game's most important components--pitching. It's like a football team with an overall poor defense, whereby one guy "stepping up" will have little impact on the big picture. Perhaps I'm just reading the question in too vague of a way, I don't know.

PickOff
02-20-2006, 03:22 PM
Dave Williams. If Claussen continues to improve, Harang maintains, and Dave Williams blossoms, then the Reds can trade for a one our two next year, and Milton can fill out the rotation. With H,C,W producing, that gives the Reds three sure fire starters in their mid-twenties, gives you something to work from. If Williams fails to step up, however, it is hard to see how the Reds can be competitive in the next couple years, needing to find 2 starters, instead of one. (We are stuck with Milton, but he can't possibly be as bad as last year, and I think he'll manage a sub 5.00 era the next two years.)

captainmorgan07
02-20-2006, 03:44 PM
Both Milton Claussen and in the pen Wagner

Aronchis
02-20-2006, 03:51 PM
Pena,Kearns,Claussen and Wagner. Time for the young talent to jell.

Betterread
02-20-2006, 04:00 PM
He's already there.

This team needs other players to jump up to the tier below that.


SEASON
2005
RBI >= 100
RUNS >= 100
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria

EXTRA BASE HITS EBH RBI R RC/G AGE
1 Derrek Lee 99 107 120 5.68 29
2 David Ortiz 88 148 119 4.07 29
3 Mark Teixeira 87 144 112 3.02 25
4 Jason Bay 82 101 110 3.72 26
T5 Alfonso Soriano 81 104 102 1.03 29
T5 Albert Pujols 81 117 129 4.89 25
T7 Alex Rodriguez 78 130 124 5.33 29
T7 Miguel Cabrera 78 116 106 2.70 22
9 Adam Dunn 77 101 107 2.66 25
10 Manny Ramirez 76 144 112 3.12 33
11 Hideki Matsui 71 116 108 1.64 31
12 Jeff Kent 65 105 100 1.65 37
13 Bobby Abreu 62 102 104 2.47 31
14 Gary Sheffield 61 123 104 2.42 36
It appears that the table you supplied to support your argument shows that Dunn in 9th in MLB for EBH and he is the 8th in this group of 14 names in RC/G

By a quick scan of the runs/RBI leaders he is 21st in MLB(10th in the NL) in runs produced. That is not in an elite class, to me. ELite class would be in the top 10 in MLB for 3 years. It does put him in the NL league leaders, which is obviously a good thing and an accomplishment. I think Dunn can produce even more, based on the potential he has shown.

I appreciate the table you put together but it did not support your argument that he is an elite run producer. I am sorry you wasted your time.

KronoRed
02-20-2006, 04:02 PM
IMO Dunn's RBI's would have been higher had he not spend a huge amount of time batting behind Mr.DP Sean Casey.

westofyou
02-20-2006, 04:04 PM
I appreciate the table you put together but it did not support your argument that he is an elite run producer. I am sorry you wasted your time.

RBI's?

Now who's wasting their time?
Best Reds under 25 in OPS vs the league in team history.



CINCINNATI REDS
CAREER
AGE <= 25
AT BATS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
EXTRA BASE HITS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

OPS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB EBH RC/G
1 Frank Robinson .195 .946 .750 3286 158 2.99
2 Adam Dunn .131 .901 .771 2271 82 2.14
3 Bug Holliday .126 .811 .684 2125 61 2.30
4 Johnny Bench .104 .814 .710 3444 112 1.05
5 Vada Pinson .100 .833 .734 3899 120 1.55
6 Dan Driessen .058 .783 .725 1801 16 0.90
7 Pete Rose .044 .754 .711 2463 5 0.76
8 Doc Hoblitzell .034 .727 .693 3172 26 0.35
9 Harry Steinfeldt .006 .706 .700 2504 50 -.28
10 Tommy Harper -.009 .703 .712 1947 -25 0.23

Betterread
02-20-2006, 04:05 PM
Dunn Win Shares

2001: 10
2002: 21
2003: 13
2004: 32
2005: 28

Career WS/162: 25.49


List of Hall of Fame 1B and/or LF that threw up a 24-27 win shares mark per 162 games: Carl Yastrzemski, Tim Raines (he'll make it), Willie Stargell, Billy Williams, Joe Medwick, Goose Goslin, Ralph Kiner, Zack Wheat, Harmon Killebrew and Willie McCovey

I'd say those guys above were all pretty elite. Counting only 2004 and 2005, Dunn's averaged 30 win shares per 162 games. That list of hitters reaches legendary.

My hope is that Dunn produce more runs - are win shares a calculation of how many runs Dunn produces?

Betterread
02-20-2006, 04:14 PM
RBI's?

Now who's wasting their time?
Best Reds under 25 in OPS vs the league in team history.



CINCINNATI REDS
CAREER
AGE <= 25
AT BATS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
EXTRA BASE HITS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

OPS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB EBH RC/G
1 Frank Robinson .195 .946 .750 3286 158 2.99
2 Adam Dunn .131 .901 .771 2271 82 2.14
3 Bug Holliday .126 .811 .684 2125 61 2.30
4 Johnny Bench .104 .814 .710 3444 112 1.05
5 Vada Pinson .100 .833 .734 3899 120 1.55
6 Dan Driessen .058 .783 .725 1801 16 0.90
7 Pete Rose .044 .754 .711 2463 5 0.76
8 Doc Hoblitzell .034 .727 .693 3172 26 0.35
9 Harry Steinfeldt .006 .706 .700 2504 50 -.28
10 Tommy Harper -.009 .703 .712 1947 -25 0.23

You are assuming that I think that I am critisizing Dunn. I am not. I think he has not reached his runproducing potential. You are not providing any countering information. You're saying you think Dunn is good. Good for you. Guess what, I'm a Reds fan and I think he's good too.

westofyou
02-20-2006, 04:17 PM
No, I'm assuming you're using RBI's as a measuring device and in turn I'll contend that as a tool RBI's is the sort of thing that can make one dump Frank Robinson because you have Deron Johnson.

But hey if you think Dunn needs to "step up" to make this team win then have at it.

Cyclone792
02-20-2006, 04:21 PM
My hope is that Dunn produce more runs - are win shares a calculation of how many runs Dunn produces?

Win shares is a calculation of a player's total worth, including offensive run production. It is a tool that is far more accurate than the heavily teammate dependent RBI.

traderumor
02-20-2006, 04:30 PM
Both Milton Claussen and in the pen Wagner


Pena,Kearns,Claussen and Wagner. Time for the young talent to jell.

Am I missing something? The question is what one player...

redsfanmia
02-20-2006, 06:58 PM
I think this is a make or break season from Kearns. This is the year that he either steps it up and becomes what some think he can be or proves that the one good half of baseball he played was an aberration not the norm

Betterread
02-20-2006, 07:04 PM
Win shares is a calculation of a player's total worth, including offensive run production. It is a tool that is far more accurate than the heavily teammate dependent RBI.

Runs produced are the sum of runs scored and runs batted in MINUS home runs (because they produce one run, not two).
May I ask that people who wish to comment on a post, actually read the post, not merely extrapolate something else that they wish to discuss. Comprehension must come before analysis, otherwise the analysis comes across as didactic (if it is done with articulation -as your post was) or simply irrelevant (if it is done crudely).
I do appreciate a discussion, its why I read the board and your points are very valuable, I will retain them (as much as my memory allows). Thanks for the info.

M2
02-20-2006, 09:31 PM
My hope is that Dunn produce more runs - are win shares a calculation of how many runs Dunn produces?

Unlike RBIs, Win Shares actually use the RC formula.


Runs produced are the sum of runs scored and runs batted in MINUS home runs (because they produce one run, not two).

That's a decent way of figuring out how much a given player was involved in your team's offense, but it's a deployment metric more than a performance metric. I can tell you without hesitation that Dunn would have scored and driven in more runs had he spent the whole season in the #3 and #4 slots.

Even so, Dunn's been over 160 two years in a row on that metric. You've got to go back to Dave Parker in 1985-86 to find the last Reds player to do that.

Others who've done it since then:

Eric Davis 1987
Reggie Sanders 1995 (Larkin and Gant may have joined him had the club played a full season)
Barry Larkin 1996
Barry Larkin 1999
Sean Casey 1999
Greg Vaughn 1999
Ken Griffey Jr. 2000
Sean Casey 2004

M2
02-20-2006, 09:34 PM
To the main question:

Brandon Claussen is the only guy on the roster outside of Harang who profiles as someone who might be able to be a consistently decent or better starter. He gets my pick with Ryan Wagner and Todd Coffey tied in a close second.

lollipopcurve
02-20-2006, 09:44 PM
I'll take Claussen and then Williams. Gotta be the SPs.

SteelSD
02-21-2006, 01:33 AM
Runs produced are the sum of runs scored and runs batted in MINUS home runs (because they produce one run, not two).
May I ask that people who wish to comment on a post, actually read the post, not merely extrapolate something else that they wish to discuss. Comprehension must come before analysis, otherwise the analysis comes across as didactic (if it is done with articulation -as your post was) or simply irrelevant (if it is done crudely).

Betterread, folks are reading your posts and are commenting that any metric that involves the use of RBI is flawed from the start. You're correct that comprehension needs to precede analysis. But in this case, you need to comprehend that the metric you're using was, for the most part, conceived to identify the players who were potentially most likely to produce opportunity-driven rate stats independent of HR totals. Nothing more. The metric you're using isn't a valid gauge of actual offensive value when applied to real live baseball.

Runs Created (over 97% accurate as a measure of actual Run production) is a much MUCH better way to evaluate a player's actual offensive value.

Over the past two seasons, here are the NL players who have topped Dunn's 241.8 RC during that span:

Albert Pujols (294.1 RC)
Todd Helton (273.6 RC)
Bobby Abreu (265.5 RC)
Derrek Lee (261.6 RC)

Of the five players we're talking about, Pujols, Helton, Abreu, and Dunn have produced RC totals topping 115 RC in both seasons. Take Helton out of Coors, and you've likely got nearly a dead heat between he and Dunn for that span. Only Pujols (a freak of nature) and Dunn are below the age of 30.

Will Dunn produce more Runs? Yeah. But he's a top-tier consistent Run production machine right now. And he's the last guy on the team who actually needs to step his game up for the Reds to be more successful.

Ron Madden
02-21-2006, 02:42 AM
I do "NOT" subscribe to the popular notion held by many fans, media members and field management of this club.

The "LEAST "Important" area in which this club needs to improve is "Run Production".

All this talk about "Playing The Game Right" and "The Need To Maufacture Runs" drives me crazy.

With all that said, We NEED Ownership, GM, Scouting and Pitching Staff all take one giant step forward.

Chip R
02-21-2006, 10:24 AM
I think, for himself, Kearns needs to step up. He had a half of a good season and has either been injured or non-productive the rest of the time. He's getting into that area where, if he puts up numbers like he's capable of, he can make as much as Dunn is. If he gets hurt again or it looks like he's lost his mojo, then he's going to be paid just like another ballplayer. He'll roam around from team to team and perhaps be a part of a successful team but will never really find a home. Much like Reggie Sanders. Good, but not great. I'd say Ryan Wagner would be a close second. He could either be a very valuable reliever or just a journeyman.

For the Reds fortunes I would say Claussen needs to take that step forward. Nothing is more important for the Reds current and future success than good pitching. Talk all you want about how the offense doesn't manufacture runs but if the Reds pitching last year was even just below league average, they would have been a lot better team.

registerthis
02-21-2006, 11:11 AM
The list has to begin with Milton. He's the most expensive pitcher on this team, and the one player that the Reds would like to trade the most. You solve that dilemna if he performs at a respectable level for half a season and the Reds are able to find some large market team in need of a cog in their pitching rotation for the stretch run.

Getting Milton off of this roster should be one of the top priorities of this team, and the quickest way to accomplish that is to get him playing at a level that doesn't make every other team treat him as if he's raw sewage when the Reds include him in a trade proposal.

registerthis
02-21-2006, 11:15 AM
Will Dunn produce more Runs? Yeah. But he's a top-tier consistent Run production machine right now. And he's the last guy on the team who actually needs to step his game up for the Reds to be more successful.

The problem is, some people want Dunn to increase his win shares from 28 to 100. So long as he's not a definitive factor in every single Reds win, people will find holes in his game.

PickOff
02-21-2006, 11:44 AM
To the main question:

Brandon Claussen is the only guy on the roster outside of Harang who profiles as someone who might be able to be a consistently decent or better starter. He gets my pick with Ryan Wagner and Todd Coffey tied in a close second.


So there is absolutely no chance that Williams or Milton or Wilson will be consistently better?

M2
02-21-2006, 11:56 AM
So there is absolutely no chance that Williams or Milton or Wilson will be consistently better?

IMO there's no chance they'll be consistently good, which makes them, for me, inherently uninteresting. Do I care if one of those guys claws his way to a 4.75 ERA? No. It won't help the team in any significant way and what the Reds will need to do even if one of those guys achieves that is replace him at the earliest possible moment.

Plus, being only mildly bad doesn't meet my definition of stepping up.

KronoRed
02-21-2006, 12:24 PM
So there is absolutely no chance that Williams or Milton or Wilson will be consistently better?
I bet there's a chance, a VERY small one, Wilson and Milton are done, Willaism may find a Steve Parris 99 somewhere but I doubt it.

They are filler, plain and simple.

WebScorpion
02-21-2006, 01:44 PM
I think Kearns and Milton will both improve on last season's performance, but I think Wilson is the one we 'need'. I'm not sure he'll be able to do it tho...first year back after shoulder surgery is usually pretty shaky, especially in the early going. I look for Wilson to finish the season strong, which could be great if we are in the running for anything at that point. :thumbup:

Betterread
02-21-2006, 06:25 PM
Betterread, folks are reading your posts and are commenting that any metric that involves the use of RBI is flawed from the start. You're correct that comprehension needs to precede analysis. But in this case, you need to comprehend that the metric you're using was, for the most part, conceived to identify the players who were potentially most likely to produce opportunity-driven rate stats independent of HR totals. Nothing more. The metric you're using isn't a valid gauge of actual offensive value when applied to real live baseball.

Runs Created (over 97% accurate as a measure of actual Run production) is a much MUCH better way to evaluate a player's actual offensive value.

Over the past two seasons, here are the NL players who have topped Dunn's 241.8 RC during that span:

Albert Pujols (294.1 RC)
Todd Helton (273.6 RC)
Bobby Abreu (265.5 RC)
Derrek Lee (261.6 RC)

Of the five players we're talking about, Pujols, Helton, Abreu, and Dunn have produced RC totals topping 115 RC in both seasons. Take Helton out of Coors, and you've likely got nearly a dead heat between he and Dunn for that span. Only Pujols (a freak of nature) and Dunn are below the age of 30.

Will Dunn produce more Runs? Yeah. But he's a top-tier consistent Run production machine right now. And he's the last guy on the team who actually needs to step his game up for the Reds to be more successful.

OK. I am willing to consider another way to determine a player's run production.
I'm confused by the RC metric. In this post Dunn has a metric of 241.8, and in your original table it is 2.66. So how is the metric calculated and (if you have the time) explain to me how a metric makes the analysis of a player's production more valuable than the basic runs plus RBIs minus homeruns formula for determining who produces the most runs, which I value because the point of the game is who scores the most runs.
Thanks for your patience, as I am now interested in this metric.

Raisor
02-21-2006, 08:06 PM
2005 Reds

Actual Runs-820
Runs Created-847.5
Runs Produced-(RBI+RS-HR)-1382

What good does that 1382 do?

Cyclone792
02-22-2006, 01:08 AM
OK. I am willing to consider another way to determine a player's run production.
I'm confused by the RC metric. In this post Dunn has a metric of 241.8, and in your original table it is 2.66. So how is the metric calculated and (if you have the time) explain to me how a metric makes the analysis of a player's production more valuable than the basic runs plus RBIs minus homeruns formula for determining who produces the most runs, which I value because the point of the game is who scores the most runs.
Thanks for your patience, as I am now interested in this metric.

A very basic premise of RC - and what has been known for several years to be one of the most accurate indicators of offensive production - is the combination of avoiding outs while acquiring bases. The more often you can avoid outs and/or acquire bases, the more value you have (aka creating baserunners, known as OBP, and advancing runners around the bases, known as total bases or SLG). It does not matter who your teammates are and how valuable they are at what they do. As a hitter, your goal is to acquire as many bases as possible while using up the fewest outs. The hitters who do this better than everyone else are the best hitters in the game.

First basic examples:

Batter A hits a solo home run
Batter B hits a grand slam

With the flawed R+RBI-HR formula, Batter A is credited with one run produced while Batter B is credited with four runs produced, despite the fact that neither batters had any control whatsoever of whether or not there were men on base when they hit the home run. A home run is essentially four bases acquired at the cost of zero outs. In terms of accounting for individual run production, all home runs are mostly equal, and RC accurately shows that.

Second basic example:

Batter A singles
Batter B singles, moving Batter A to second base
Batter C singles, scoring Batter A and moving Batter B to second base
Batter's D, E and F all strike out to end the inning.

In the flawed R+RBI-HR formula, Batter A is credited with a run scored and Batter C is credited with an RBI. Batter B is credited with absolutely nothing. In reality, Batter's A, B and C have mostly equal results of one base acquired at the cost of zero outs. Again, RC accurately shows this while R+RBI-HR fails. (I say mostly equal results because more recent/advanced RC formulas have modifications in the formula that also accounts for situational hitting).

Wiki's page on RC is actually pretty decent in terms of showing the formulas ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created

Topcat
02-22-2006, 03:17 AM
no numbers. No projections its as simple as this Milton has to win 16 games. If he does thew Reds will compete. The reality is thats a huge huge wish. But it is possible. My opinion is based upon his 2nd half of season and the time his knee has had to gain strength.

StillFunkyB
02-22-2006, 07:23 AM
I say it's whoever is hitting in front of Dunn.

This way, there are 1 or 2 guys on base when Dunn goes big fly.

KearnsyEars
02-22-2006, 12:23 PM
Kearns has got to wake up and get it going this year. Period.