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View Full Version : Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?



SidneySlicker
02-24-2006, 10:09 AM
It would be ridiculous to trade either of them in spring training, when you're going to get nothing more than a minor league prospect(s) for them. You buy low and trade high. Neither of these players have proven that they will live up to their potential over a whole season. Why not give them the chance to play everyday prove their worth to your own team, and other teams as well. Yes, there is a chance that they could have horrible seasons, however I don't buy that their value will lower much from what it is now. They will only be one year older and still be viewed as players with potential that has been untapped. I think Kearns and Willy Mo will have solid years (if they are able to avoid injuries). I believe the risk/reward is greater giving them a season of starting for this team. The only way I do trade one of them is if they become malcontent, which shouldn't really be a problem if they are both getting consistent starts.

Krusty
02-24-2006, 10:34 AM
It would be ridiculous to trade either of them in spring training, when you're going to get nothing more than a minor league prospect(s) for them. You buy low and trade high. Neither of these players have proven that they will live up to their potential over a whole season. Why not give them the chance to play everyday prove their worth to your own team, and other teams as well. Yes, there is a chance that they could have horrible seasons, however I don't buy that their value will lower much from what it is now. They will only be one year older and still be viewed as players with potential that has been untapped. I think Kearns and Willy Mo will have solid years (if they are able to avoid injuries). I believe the risk/reward is greater giving them a season of starting for this team. The only way I do trade one of them is if they become malcontent, which shouldn't really be a problem if they are both getting consistent starts.

Have you seen the starting rotation the past couple of seasons? We could keep Kearns and Willy Mo and still finish under .500. The only way to fix it is deal an outfielder for a pitcher or pitchers that can upgrade the staff.

It is up to Krivsky to fix that problem. Until then keeping Kearns and Willy Mo isn't going to make this team a contender.

fourrunhomer
02-24-2006, 10:39 AM
Are we one starter away from a decent season? With a fairly potent offense, could we be over .500 if we added on good starting pitcher. I look for improvement out of most of our guys.

thorn
02-24-2006, 10:39 AM
Because Kearns has had the Potential tag for several years, when is he going to loose that tag and live up to some of it? This is his last chance, IMO to be something more than potential. Many people will be willing to trade a SP or SP ready "With Potential" right now. If Kearns flops again, we will be lucky to get a Casey type deal done. And if he does bust out, why would we want to trade him? And as far as Pena goes, he better learn to lay off breaking pitches and play some defense. He's been playing the OF for 7 years now, how long do you need to learn to play a position? He is a little younger, so I would give him one more year to see if he can adjust, otherwise he'll never be anything more than a fast ball hitting, horrible defense playing OF.

RedsManRick
02-24-2006, 10:41 AM
I'm pretty sure nobody wants to deal one of them just to deal them. However, we also realize that the staff needs an infusion of talent and we have OF depth. If somebody is willing to give us a pitcher with similar upside to one of those guys (ie. all-star potential), it would have to be strongly considered.

SidneySlicker
02-24-2006, 10:43 AM
Let me ask you this then. What are the chances that we can get a #1 or 2 starter (with mlb experience) for Kearns or Willy Mo right now? I'd say none. What's the point in adding more 3 through 5's (with mlb experience) to this team, or one or two minor league prospect that may never see their potential or the big leagues. I don't think they can get a #1 or 2 for them right now. Now if one of them has a breakout season and bats .310 with 30hr's and 100rbi's, I think their trade value significantly increases. Like I said I think the risk reward right now is greater with Kearns and Willy Mo playing full seasons with the Reds.

flyer85
02-24-2006, 10:51 AM
At this point I would keep 'em and see how the season plays out. Not like trading either would make this team a pennant contender. They are far more likely to raise their trade value than lower it.

ochre
02-24-2006, 10:53 AM
Can they pitch? That's not to say I'm particularly eager to trade them. At some point though the Reds will need to hold the opposition to fewer runs than the Reds score.

kbrake
02-24-2006, 10:53 AM
A 3 through 5 would be a whole lot better then what we have now. Wilson and Milton are like 8's or 10's. If Kearns could have had Clement a few weeks back then we should have pulled the trigger. If Pena/Kearns his 30 homers w/ 100 RBI people will scream if they get traded for anything less than Prior/Peavy. If you can still get Clement I still make the trade, if you can get anyone close to Clement caliber I make the trade.

traderumor
02-24-2006, 10:55 AM
It is good to see some new folks joining the board and posting in this thread. I think with the state of the pitching and the principle of trading from a strength to plug a weakness, if we could land a "3", or consistently average young starter for the price of Pena or Kearns, you have to do it in the name of "How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time." This all comes about because there is nothing in the system that allows us to hold onto the offense and wait for the young guy to develop to the point of helping the big league club.

I don't think anyone really wants to trade either of them because both have shown flashes of star potential, but I think its a matter of the Reds have to trade one of them eventually. Of course, I said that last year and they're both still here, so who knows.

Krusty
02-24-2006, 10:56 AM
Let me ask you this then. What are the chances that we can get a #1 or 2 starter (with mlb experience) for Kearns or Willy Mo right now? I'd say none. What's the point in adding more 3 through 5's (with mlb experience) to this team, or one or two minor league prospect that may never see their potential or the big leagues. I don't think they can get a #1 or 2 for them right now. Now if one of them has a breakout season and bats .310 with 30hr's and 100rbi's, I think their trade value significantly increases. Like I said I think the risk reward right now is greater with Kearns and Willy Mo playing full seasons with the Reds.

Well, the Reds could have had RHP Jake Westbrook from the Indians for Kearns and the Reds turned that down. IMO, I don't think Westbrook is that bad and he is a sinkerball pitcher which would be suited for the Reds. So, I would revisited Kearns trade talks with Cleveland but if I was Krivsky, I would shoot for Sabbathia, even if it means spicing up the deal.

You add Sabbathia to go with Harang and Claussen and you have a solid three. As for the fourth and fifth starters, if Wilson and Milton could rebound that would be great. But then you have several young arms you can look at.

traderumor
02-24-2006, 10:58 AM
Well, the Reds could have had RHP Jake Westbrook from the Indians for Kearns and the Reds turned that down. IMO, I don't think Westbrook is that bad and he is a sinkerball pitcher which would be suited for the Reds. So, I would revisited Kearns trade talks with Cleveland but if I was Krivsky, I would shoot for Sabbathia, even if it means spicing up the deal.

You add Sabbathia to go with Harang and Claussen and you have a solid three. As for the fourth and fifth starters, if Wilson and Milton could rebound that would be great. But then you have several young arms you can look at.
That is who I see as the target arm if I'm trading with the Indians as well. Westbrook, blech, reminds me too much of Paul Wilson.

flyer85
02-24-2006, 11:01 AM
Well, the Reds could have had RHP Jake Westbrook from the Indians for Kearns and the Reds turned that down. IMO, I don't think Westbrook is that bad and he is a sinkerball pitcher which would be suited for the Reds. trading their OF surplus for expensive(Westbrook, Clements, etc) average or slightly above starters is no way to build a winner. They need to focus on young guys so the Reds can take advantage of their cheap years. A guy like Harang is going to get expensive next year and i Claussen develops is not far behind. They need to figure out how to get a Liriano type pitcher from somebody(like the Twins did from the Giants) instead of trading for a 30ish expensive average pitcher. I think a guy like Belisle(serious GB pitcher) is a better bet than trading for a Westbrook.

traderumor
02-24-2006, 11:04 AM
trading their OF surplus for expensive(Westbrook, Clements, etc) average or slightly above starters is no way to build a winner. They need to focus on young guys so the Reds can take advantage of their cheap years. A guy like Harang is going to get expensive next year and i Claussen develops is not far behind. They need to figure out how to get a Liriano type pitcher from somebody(like the Twins did from the Giants) instead of trading for a 30ish expensive average pitcher. I think a guy like Belisle(serious GB pitcher) is a better bet than trading for a Westbrook.But that strategy worked so well the last few years :evil:

flyer85
02-24-2006, 11:07 AM
But that strategy worked so well the last few years :evil:... DanO just wasn't given enought time.:bang:

SidneySlicker
02-24-2006, 11:17 AM
People want a quick fix and there just isn't such a thing in baseball. You build your team and farm systems pitching through the draft and by trading topshelf players (something Kearns and Pena at this time are not), not by trading young players who have had injury problems and hit .250 or .269 for their career.

Krusty
02-24-2006, 11:18 AM
trading their OF surplus for expensive(Westbrook, Clements, etc) average or slightly above starters is no way to build a winner. They need to focus on young guys so the Reds can take advantage of their cheap years. A guy like Harang is going to get expensive next year and i Claussen develops is not far behind. They need to figure out how to get a Liriano type pitcher from somebody(like the Twins did from the Giants) instead of trading for a 30ish expensive average pitcher. I think a guy like Belisle(serious GB pitcher) is a better bet than trading for a Westbrook.


Well if Krivsky could pry RHPs Chad Billingsley and John Broxton from the Dodgers, I would rank that right up there with the trade the Twins did with the Giants.

But if you want both of these highly regarded pitching arms, I think the Dodgers would want Dunn in return.

Krusty
02-24-2006, 11:22 AM
People want a quick fix and there just isn't such a thing in baseball. You build your team and farm systems pitching through the draft and by trading topshelf players (something Kearns and Pena at this time are not), not by trading young players who have had injury problems and hit .250 or .269 for their career.

Just look how Billy Beane does it in Oakland and you get the hint. You have to have a strong farm system but at the same time you need to wheel and deal at the major league level. Beane trades Hudson and Mulder for younger arms but at the same time he trades for veteran LHP Joe Kennedy and signs RHP Estaban Loaiza as a free agent. He brings in veterans like Jay Payton, Jason Kendall, Milton Bradley and Kotsay but at the same time has parted with Tejeda, Giambi and others.

It is all about knowing how to wheel and deal at the major league level and at the same time building through the farm system.......which former Reds GM Dan O'Brien was deficient at.

flyer85
02-24-2006, 11:22 AM
Well if Krivsky could pry RHPs Chad Billingsley and John Broxton from the Dodgers, I would rank that right up there with the trade the Twins did with the Giants.

But if you want both of these highly regarded pitching arms, I think the Dodgers would want Dunn in return.which means you wait. There are no simple answers. BTW, I wouldn't trade Dunn for Billingsley and Broxton.

See the BP article dealing with pitching prospects
http://www.baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=4796

Trading a proven valuable commidity for minor league pitching prospects is just getting a chance to roll the dice at the craps table.

In the end, the Reds are likely to have to wait for the development of the likes Belisle, Germano, Gardner, Wood, Bailey, etc.

As Archie Bunker would say "patience is a virgin".

SidneySlicker
02-24-2006, 11:49 AM
which means you wait. There are no simple answers. BTW, I wouldn't trade Dunn for Billingsley and Broxton.

See the BP article dealing with pitching prospects
http://www.baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=4796

Trading a proven valuable commidity for minor league pitching prospects is just getting a chance to roll the dice at the craps table.

In the end, the Reds are likely to have to wait for the development of the likes Belisle, Germano, Gardner, Wood, Bailey, etc.

As Archie Bunker would say "patience is a virgin".


Agreed and I would add that you have to look at what you have to deal. Oakland had brought players through there farm system initially that turned into star players such as Hudson, Moulder, Tejada, etc. They bought cheap and sold high. It is absolutely imperative that the Reds have a string of successful drafts and quality teaching of those players so that you can one day trade those elite players to help restock your team. This is why there is no quick fix it takes years to build up your farm system.

M2
02-24-2006, 11:59 AM
Let me ask you this then. What are the chances that we can get a #1 or 2 starter (with mlb experience) for Kearns or Willy Mo right now? I'd say none.

Truth is, even if Kearns and Pena bust out this season you may not be able to get a#1-2 type of pitcher with major league experience for them.

Think about who's trading for these types of guys (seven figure salaries, immediate pop for the lineup). In most cases it will be a contender and contenders aren't trading those types of pitchers.

It is possible a struggling club might want one to build around and that such a club might be willing to trade an experienced pitcher for that. Though the pitcher likely would be available because he's making, or on the cusp of making, a decent chunk of money. Kearns or Pena may prove too rich for such a team's blood. Also, Kearns only has the 2006 and 2007 seasons before he hits free agency. If the Reds wait to trade him until next offseason, he's not going to be a guy around whom a struggling club can build. Instead he'll be a one-year patch.

Ultimately the Reds are looking at some combination of quality prospects and/or guys with major league experience who haven't put it all together yet when the they make that vaunted OF-for-pitching deal.

traderumor
02-24-2006, 12:08 PM
Agreed and I would add that you have to look at what you have to deal. Oakland had brought players through there farm system initially that turned into star players such as Hudson, Moulder, Tejada, etc. They bought cheap and sold high. It is absolutely imperative that the Reds have a string of successful drafts and quality teaching of those players so that you can one day trade those elite players to help restock your team. This is why there is no quick fix it takes years to build up your farm system.The Reds should have their farm system stocked by now after 5 straight losing seasons. That means their fair share of top 10 picks in each round, yet the farm system is barren. And folks wonder why the fans who have been following these developments closely are skeptical and bitter with a new regime. Of course, it took six years for Krivsky's mentor to turn the Twins into what they are now, and they went through 8 straight losing seasons before that, so hopefully we don't have to endure that, but it is possible.

KearnsyEars
02-24-2006, 12:14 PM
I wouldn't give up Dunn and Kearns for much at this point.

SidneySlicker
02-24-2006, 12:29 PM
Truth is, even if Kearns and Pena bust out this season you may not be able to get a#1-2 type of pitcher with major league experience for them.

Think about who's trading for these types of guys (seven figure salaries, immediate pop for the lineup). In most cases it will be a contender and contenders aren't trading those types of pitchers.

It is possible a struggling club might want one to build around and that such a club might be willing to trade an experienced pitcher for that. Though the pitcher likely would be available because he's making, or on the cusp of making, a decent chunk of money. Kearns or Pena may prove too rich for such a team's blood. Also, Kearns only has the 2006 and 2007 seasons before he hits free agency. If the Reds wait to trade him until next offseason, he's not going to be a guy around whom a struggling club can build. Instead he'll be a one-year patch.

Ultimately the Reds are looking at some combination of quality prospects and/or guys with major league experience who haven't put it all together yet when the they make that vaunted OF-for-pitching deal.

You are right they may never be worth a #1 or 2 starter in fact there aren't alot of players out there that would bright that in return. Like I said before it's all risk reward.
Keeping them
Risk- I'd say is very minimal. There isn't much I believe they can do to decrease their value to the Reds or another team.
Reward- you might find you have a player you will keep around that could turn into a solid or very good player. This in-turn increases trade value for what you currently get for them.

Trading them
Risk- You get a prospect or two who may never turn into a quality major league player.
Reward- You may get lucky and find a diamond in the rough and get a guy that will be a very good or solid mlb player.

To me the risk involved in trading them at this time is greater than what it would be to keep them. Buy low, trade high.

M2
02-24-2006, 12:54 PM
Though there is the additional risk of not addressing an epidemic pitching problem that you can't fix with what you've got on hand inside the organization.

SidneySlicker
02-24-2006, 01:07 PM
My point is what you would get in return for either player right now is minimal. If they can play and increase their value you will get more for them.

Little Alex
02-24-2006, 01:19 PM
My thing is, this isn't the NFL.

all the Reds would need to do to get quality pitching is... (drumroll) pay for it.

But we are a small market team. That means the GM has to play this game on "expert level," which better than the Devil Rays ("poitless level") I guess.

If it takes 8 years or however long, its only because of our salary cap handicap.

M2
02-24-2006, 01:36 PM
My point is what you would get in return for either player right now is minimal. If they can play and increase their value you will get more for them.

Theoretically, but that's assuming they will play better. IMO, you trade them when you can get a return you like for them. Though few teams that lack offensive skills seem capable of projecting talent. If they were, they'd be able to land Kearns or Pena for 60-70 cents on the dollar, still providing the Reds with a decent return, but saving themselves the expense of trading for guys like these after they've popped.

flyer85
02-24-2006, 01:40 PM
Theoretically, but that's assuming they will play better. Using their age as an idicator there is certainly a strong probablility that they will in the next year or two.

Krusty
02-24-2006, 01:53 PM
My fear is Kearns will have another injury-plagued season and his value will be rock bottom. As I said before, he hasn't been the same since Ray King sat on his shoulder.

M2
02-24-2006, 01:57 PM
Using their age as an idicator there is certainly a strong probablility that they will in the next year or two.

I agree. That's why other teams would be wise to make a substantial offer for them now. Though it should be noted Kearns only has two years before he enters free agency. Of the two, he's the one who needs to pop immediately in order to increase his trade value inside the Reds' cash-in window.

flyer85
02-24-2006, 01:59 PM
My fear is Kearns will have another injury-plagued season and his value will be rock bottom. As I said before, he hasn't been the same since Ray King sat on his shoulder.Making a trade based on fear wouldn't seem to be a particularly good idea. I don't thing the King injury is a factor at all. If the shoulder wasn't healthy he wouldn't be able to throw the way he does. Kearns was brought up a little early, got hurt, hasn't been able t play everyday and has struggled. His story isn't different from a lot of players who come up in their early 20s.

The most overvalued commodity on the trade market is young starting pitching, something that trading Kearns won't bring right now anyway. Taking the risk that his value will "bottom out", isn't much of a risk at all at this point.

TeamBoone
02-24-2006, 03:27 PM
My fear is Kearns will have another injury-plagued season and his value will be rock bottom. As I said before, he hasn't been the same since Ray King sat on his shoulder.

Why is that a fear? He had no injuries in 2005.

Highlifeman21
02-24-2006, 04:16 PM
Well, the Reds could have had RHP Jake Westbrook from the Indians for Kearns and the Reds turned that down. IMO, I don't think Westbrook is that bad and he is a sinkerball pitcher which would be suited for the Reds. So, I would revisited Kearns trade talks with Cleveland but if I was Krivsky, I would shoot for Sabbathia, even if it means spicing up the deal.

You add Sabbathia to go with Harang and Claussen and you have a solid three. As for the fourth and fifth starters, if Wilson and Milton could rebound that would be great. But then you have several young arms you can look at.


Well put.

Harang and Claussen are realistically our only 2 starting options around which to build, and we do have a plethora of OF, so someone literally will be the odd man out. Griffey has to OK trades, and I would assume that he would only OK a trade to someone that has a high chance of winning a title. Hopefully we didn't re-up Dunn to sign and trade him, so we'll take him out of the equation. That leaves us with a collection of Kearns/Pena/Denorfia/Rhodes/McCracken/Cruz/Freel/fill in the blank. Bottomline, too many cooks in the kitchen. I've always been a fan of Westbrook, and Sabathia is a solid arm as well, so either would be great to add with Harang and Claussen and then if we had the stones go ahead and just go with a 4 man rotation, so we'd be looking at Harang/Claussen/Westbrook/4th.

Let's thanks Aaron Boone for leaving town and Brandon Claussen taking his place. Let's thank Jose Guillen for leaving town and Aaron Harang taking his place. It's a simple formula we've established: trade away something at the deadline for something that can help us in 2 years.

SidneySlicker
02-24-2006, 05:10 PM
If you think there is anyway we get Sabathia with out Dunn involved you're crazy. I don't think that Pena or Kearns would bring anyone right now that is gonna make this team better long term so why trade them now? I'd rather stand pat and if we're gonna make a trade do it near the trade deadline and find a team that is desperate. I'm not saying we don't have pitching issues because thats like calling the sky blue, however somethings you can't do a quick change. People have been messing up this organization for along time and it's not gonna get fixed in one offseason. We need to be patient.