PDA

View Full Version : 2004 Draft thread



Pages : 1 [2] 3

traderumor
06-07-2004, 01:45 PM
Homer on mlb.radio Sounds like he's excited and has no thoughts on taking that scholarship to Texas.

knuckler
06-07-2004, 01:45 PM
Someone has been drinking a little bit too much of the moneyball Kool-aid.

You mean DePodesta, who drafted a HS pitcher with his first pick as GM? Or DePodesta, who drafted a HS SS with his second pick?

westofyou
06-07-2004, 01:45 PM
Bingo!

Why all the love affairs with the scouts?



Because they're "the experts"?

Nobody is without faults, not Billy Beane not Grady Fusion.

But I love how people can have an opinion that other peoples opinions are without merit, kinda ouroboros isn't it.

knuckler
06-07-2004, 01:45 PM
So a guy who at most has seen a 30 second video clip of a kid is a much better evaluator of talent then a scout?? Glad to know I always thought the guy who did talent eval. for a living had I better idea, but today I have found out that guys who are sitting behind a desk at work has a better idea because he read moneyball and saw a 30 second video clip.

Scouts just get paid to watch baseball games. :lol:

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 01:46 PM
Second Round prediction for Reds - Ross Ohlendorf, Princeton RHP.

Pauly went to Princeton too of course and went in the second round. I would rather have his teammate (B.J. Szymanski).

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:47 PM
I don't understand how we are saying you can't have an opinion? It just seems a little bit obvious that people that do this for a living are gonna know a little more than computer guys like us. Is that some sort of knock on you guys?

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 01:47 PM
You mean DePodesta, who drafted a HS pitcher with his first pick as GM? Or DePodesta, who drafted a HS SS with his second pick?

Then fire DePodesta for taking a HS pitcher what was he thinking??? My point is that we dont know much of anything about this guy other then he is 18 with a live fastball. The only reason people would even question the pick is because of Moneyball evidence.
But in all seriousness is Billy Beane going to disown DePodesta as his friend for taking 2 HS players?

traderumor
06-07-2004, 01:47 PM
Could someone help a lazy man with some numbers? Please lay out the numbers that are being thrown out there about odds of HS "power" pitchers vs. college "power" pitchers. A link would be fine as well.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:47 PM
Reds next pick at #48

zombie-a-go-go
06-07-2004, 01:47 PM
So a guy who at most has seen a 30 second video clip of a kid is a much better evaluator of talent then a scout?? Glad to know I always thought the guy who did talent eval. for a living had I better idea, but today I have found out that guys who are sitting behind a desk at work has a better idea because he read moneyball and saw a 30 second video clip.

It's about time you figured it out.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 01:48 PM
Have they started the supplemental picks yet?

jfar23
06-07-2004, 01:49 PM
Any starting pitcher the Reds draft is doomed. So it really makes no difference who it is. Thus we should have drafted the shortstop.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:49 PM
Have they started the supplemental picks yet?

Not yet.

ochre
06-07-2004, 01:50 PM
So a guy who at most has seen a 30 second video clip of a kid is a much better evaluator of talent then a scout?? Glad to know I always thought the guy who did talent eval. for a living had I better idea, but today I have found out that guys who are sitting behind a desk at work has a better idea because he read moneyball and saw a 30 second video clip.

I can see both sides of the discussion. Not to take sides here, but I think what they are saying is more along the lines of "until this organization changes, or somehow proves they can develop a HS arm, they should stick with the safer path of taking an arm that is a little further along without major incident."

I would have rather seen Nelson, but if Homer has a smooth free, mechanically sound delivery maybe he will be ok. A lot of the HS pitchers the reds have taken had explosive deliveries to go along with explosive pitches.

CougarQuest
06-07-2004, 01:50 PM
Let's not take any of this personal folks, it's only everyones OPINION of who they THOUGHT would have been the best pick for the Reds.

Some people do not feel comfortable drafting high school pitchers. Some people do not feel comfortable drafting high school players. Some people feel that high schoolers are just as legitimate to draft as any college player. It doesn't mean that people feel they are smarter than the people drafting for the Reds, it means that if they were drafting, they would pick (fill in the blank) instead because of their philosophical reasons.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:50 PM
Granted we don't have a good track record Jfar. But how would this team compete with only positional players picked in every draft?

traderumor
06-07-2004, 01:51 PM
BTW,

Even though this is debatable, SD had the top picks in both the MLB and NFL drafts, all indications are that Weaver must have balked at signing with the Pads, or was commanding too much. I guess the beauty of the area isn't attracting these folks?

Team Clark
06-07-2004, 01:52 PM
Craziest prediction I have heard was Ferris from Miami, Ohio going in the first round. 2 bad knees, avg power, no glove and mediocre speed. Sounds like a first rounder to me. :lol: Especially since I have seen this kid play in person 40-50 times in the last 2 1/2 years. My humble guess is 25th round to fill out a roster.

Edd Roush
06-07-2004, 01:52 PM
Where do you all think Andrew Brackman of Moeller will be picked? He had a great year and I saw him pitch a few times seeing I was on Moeller's JV. I think the Reds would make a nice 3rd round pick if they chose Brack and it would be nice to see him stay in Cincinnati.

MWM
06-07-2004, 01:52 PM
So a guy who at most has seen a 30 second video clip of a kid is a much better evaluator of talent then a scout?? Glad to know I always thought the guy who did talent eval. for a living had I better idea, but today I have found out that guys who are sitting behind a desk at work has a better idea because he read moneyball and saw a 30 second video clip.

Not once has anyone claimed to be a better scout than the scouts out there. It's about the approach, which you can't seem to grasp because you keep arguing against points never made by anyone. You keep coming back to "the scouts know what they're doing." You haven't once addressed the points made about these scouts and their opinions on guys like Gruler and Howington.

When scouts have th track record the Reds scouts have in regards to high school pitching, then we have every right to question then repeating the very same steps that haven't worked in the past. In the real world, us guys sitting behind a desk would get fired if we continued to make the same mistakes ove and over without changing the way we operate.

With your approach, you're locked in to supporting every draft pick made, every personnel move made, every managerial move made; simply because the decision makers are in the business and you aren't. So I guess you've never, ever second guessed anything done in the history of the Reds organization. Because, unless you're a hypocrite, guy who sit at a desk are not capable of disagreeing. Who's the one really drinking the Kool-Aid?

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 01:53 PM
Granted we don't have a good track record Jfar. But how would this team compete with only positional players picked in every draft?


IMO, this draft is weighted heavily with pitching, with only a few standout bats. That's why I could see the argument of taking someone like Chris Nelson. I surely would have taken him over Bailey, but wouldn't have taken him over Humber, Neimann, etc, etc.

CougarQuest
06-07-2004, 01:53 PM
Scouts just get paid to watch baseball games. :lol:

:roll: , ahhh good ole Marge, god rest her soul.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:53 PM
31. Royals
James Howell

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:54 PM
32. Blue Jays
Zach Jackson - Texas A&M

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:55 PM
Marge was the best haha.

PuffyPig
06-07-2004, 01:55 PM
It doesn't mean that people feel they are smarter than the people drafting for the Reds, it means that if they were drafting, they would pick (fill in the blank) instead because of their philosophical reasons.

Actuaaly, there are a number of people here who actually believe they are smarter than the scouts.

MWM
06-07-2004, 01:55 PM
Where do you all think Andrew Brackman of Moeller will be picked? He had a great year and I saw him pitch a few times seeing I was on Moeller's JV. I think the Reds would make a nice 3rd round pick if they chose Brack and it would be nice to see him stay in Cincinnati.

BRack is going to college to play basketball.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:55 PM
33. Dodgers
Justin Orenduff

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 01:55 PM
Lasorda's causing problems again. :D

WVRed
06-07-2004, 01:55 PM
33. Dodgers
Justin Orenduff

This might make up for them taking two high schoolers earlier.

Team Clark
06-07-2004, 01:56 PM
Brack's name could come up in the beginning of the third round. His last pitch on Saturday was clocked at 95mph. Not to mention he has had a stellar high school career. If he were to agree to not play Basketball in College he would be a 3-7th round pick.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:56 PM
34. White Sox
Tyler Munson - Clemson

Cedric
06-07-2004, 01:56 PM
Honestly I see your points MWM, but I think drafts and recruiting for college are a little different than everything else. Most fans that second guess front office decisions have more knowledge of the situation than knowledge of a crapshoot like a draft or recruiting. There is SO much information that we can't POSSIBLY know.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:56 PM
35. Twins
Matthew Fox - Central Florida University

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:57 PM
36. A's
Daniel Putnam - Stanford

RANDY IN INDY
06-07-2004, 01:57 PM
including an 81-83 mph curveball with 11-to-5 break.

That's a great break if you are a lefthander. Sounds a little "screwy" for a righthander.
;)

WVRed
06-07-2004, 01:58 PM
Oakland selects Danny Putnam OF Stanford

The moneyball draft continues....

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:58 PM
37. Yankees
Jonathan Patterson - HS Catcher

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 01:58 PM
Any high ceiling MI's left??? Anyone that would be a good pick in rounds 3-5? I think the Reds will go SP again in round 2, possibly a college arm.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 01:58 PM
Not once has anyone claimed to be a better scout than the scouts out there. It's about the approach, which you can't seem to grasp because you keep arguing against points never made by anyone. You keep coming back to "the scouts know what they're doing." You haven't once addressed the points made about these scouts and their opinions on guys like Gruler and Howington.

When scouts have th track record the Reds scouts have in regards to high school pitching, then we have every right to question then repeating the very same steps that haven't worked in the past. In the real world, us guys sitting behind a desk would get fired if we continued to make the same mistakes ove and over without changing the way we operate.

With your approach, you're locked in to supporting every draft pick made, every personnel move made, every managerial move made; simply because the decision makers are in the business and you aren't. So I guess you've never, ever second guessed anything done in the history of the Reds organization. Because, unless you're a hypocrite, guy who sit at a desk are not capable of disagreeing. Who's the one really drinking the Kool-Aid?
My approach is draft the guy you think is the best. Not the best college player because I love college players because Billy Beane is a good drafter. And how can I possibly critisize the Reds for this pick if I know next to nothign about him. Now I can critisize the Bengals for drafting Perry over Kevin jones because I saw both of them play and no doubt in my mind Jones is better, but in the baseball draft I cant critisize them because I dont know enough none of us do. That is just the facts. No i do not have to agree with managerial decisions and FA signings because I have seen the players or know the situation with a lot of knowledge of how the game is going or how the player is developing. The draft as a whole different animal though because we really do not know.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 01:58 PM
JP Howell is still on the board - a solid College lefty

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:59 PM
38. White Sox
Giovanni Gonzalez - LHP (HS)

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 01:59 PM
Howell went to the Royals.

CougarQuest
06-07-2004, 01:59 PM
If the Reds draft a college arm in the 2nd round, it will be fun to see who climbs the fastest and has the most success in their careers, Homer or the college arm. :mhcky21:

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 01:59 PM
39. Twins
J.E. Ringvill

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
The college pitcher should climb faster.

ochre
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
JP Howell is still on the board - a solid College lefty


1 (31) JP Howell Kansas City Royals P Univ. of Texas

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
40. A's
Huston Street - RHP Texas

traderumor
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
I understand the point with our recent history, but since we have new folks in place in the key positions overseeing the draft, it seems to me that they wanted to take the BPA, and I don't see anything that tells me that they didn't do that. The SS was also a good pick by M2, the Rockies took him top 10. I also understand the odds and all that, but in the first round, with that high of a pick, I would be interested to see what the numbers are. In other words, ok, the odds of any HS power pitcher making it to the Show are X and it is a significant difference from college pitchers success rate, but what do the comparative numbers look like when we're talking a top 10 pick here, since it seems he was a likely top 10 pick? I would expect the number of top 10 first round HS pitchers drafted would have just as high a percentage making it to the show as their college counterparts, or at least having gained ground.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
Howell went to the Royals.
Missed that - thanks

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
More Moneyball. They do have a philosophy though.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:00 PM
Huston Street to OAK. This is a great pick for them he can definitly help their "soft serve" bull pen.

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:01 PM
My point is that we dont know much of anything about this guy other then he is 18 with a live fastball.
Short of the guy having Kerry Wood or Josh Becket type potential, that's all we need to know.


The only reason people would even question the pick is because of Moneyball evidence.
The evidence has been around a lot longer than Moneyball and people around here have felt the same about HS pitchers years before Moneyball came out. so your point is irrelevant. Some people think they can just throw the word Moneyball out there and that by itself discredits anything and everything data driven. Some folks, most of whom have never picked up the book, are willing to just dismiss everything said in the book because of its popularity within the statistically-minded community. Read the book, understand it, then have an opinion.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:01 PM
Last pick of supplemental round

41. Yankees
Jeff Marquez

Reds1
06-07-2004, 02:01 PM
He looks pretty good to me. 144 SO and 7 walks in 61 innings. Wow!

Edd Roush
06-07-2004, 02:01 PM
Brack threw 47 1/3 innings for Moeller this year giving up only 4 Earned Runs (.60ERA) and gave up only 21 hits (no homers) only 14 walks with 83 strikeouts. Brack is a complete stud and he loves baseball more than basketball (according to my good friend who is his cousin.) If the Reds can steal Drew in the 4th or 5th round, he will surprise a lot of people.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:01 PM
42. Yankees
Brett Smith - California U.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:02 PM
43. Tigers
Eric Beatty

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:03 PM
B.J. Szymanski could be available when the Reds pick. I never would have thought that possible. He's raw, but it would be an interesting pick (great athlete).

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:03 PM
44. Mets
Matt Dirkin - San Jose State

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:04 PM
The evidence has been around a lot longer than Moneyball and people around here have felt the same about HS pitchers years before Moneyball came out. so your point is irrelevant. Some people think they can just throw the word Moneyball out there and that by itself discredits anything and everything data driven. Some folks, most of whom have never picked up the book, are willing to just dismiss everything said in the book because of its popularity within the statistically-minded community. Read the book, understand it, then have an opinion.
Read the book have an opinion. My opinion is you draft who you think is the best it is that simple. And Bailey might not have Beckett/Wood potential but neither did Zach Greinke. Yes the evidence has been around longer then Moneyball but that is what "popularized" the evidence and made a lot of people think the way they do. I have no problem with that, but I disagree on limiting your focus because of age.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:04 PM
45. Devil Rays
Reid Brignack

Team Clark
06-07-2004, 02:05 PM
If Moneyball were around when Bob Horner and Pete Incavilgia were drafted would they still be picked?

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:05 PM
46. Milwaukee
Giovanni Garlardo

47. Cleveland
48. Reds

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:05 PM
47. Indians
Justin Hoilman - Florida

letsgojunior
06-07-2004, 02:05 PM
Actuaaly, there are a number of people here who actually believe they are smarter than the scouts.

Please, a number of people are simply disagreeing with the philosophy of the pick. That hardly qualifies them as arrogant. And it's not exactly like they are taking a ridiculous position. It's been proven over and over again what a risk you take with HS pitchers.

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:05 PM
Read the book have an opinion. My opinion is you draft who you think is the best it is that simple. And Bailey might not have Beckett/Wood potential but neither did Zach Greinke. Yes the evidence has been around longer then Moneyball but that is what "popularized" the evidence and made a lot of people think the way they do. I have no problem with that, but I disagree on limiting your focus because of age.

Most of the folks here would feel the EXACT same way had Moneyball never been written. The difference is no one would have comeback because they couldn't just crack a *Moneyball* joke.

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:06 PM
Yeah!!!!!

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:06 PM
48. REDS
B.J. S. - Princeton

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:06 PM
Anyone else having issues getting BA's Draft Blog up?

Seems to me their server is swamped and can't handle it

WVRed
06-07-2004, 02:06 PM
48.Cincinnati BJ Syzmanski Princeton

Two great picks, WOOO HOOOO!!!

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:06 PM
Going to take a break for awhile...

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
Sweet, sweet pick - considered he'd been rumored to be a top 15 guy

Stormy
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
Now *there* is a solid, compelling 2nd round pick IMHO.

See, we still have an infatuation with HS arms and athletes! :) :)

PS: Thanks for all of the rapid updates Griffeyfan.

backbencher
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
48. REDS
B.J. S. - Princeton
I hope we can get a first-hand scouting report on this one from our local correspondent.

At all events, this pick clearly is a gentleman and a scholar.

Edd Roush
06-07-2004, 02:07 PM
What position does he play? Does any one have any stats? Thanks

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:08 PM
I can't get onto Baseball America for a bio; I'm sure it's bogged down.

CougarQuest
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
I believe we have a pick EVERYONE agrees with!!!!! There is a supreme being, there is a supreme being .... :thumbup:

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
Syzmanski: Fastest rising college prospect for the 2004 Draft. Potential five-tool outfielder with a plus arm and a rare size/speed combo. He's 6-5 and runs the 60 in 6.45 seconds.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:09 PM
Without a paid subscription, this is all I could get from TeamOne:

Bio Notes: Fastest rising college prospect for the 2004 Draft. Potential five-tool outfielder with a plus arm and a rare size/speed combo. He's 6-5 and runs the 60 in 6.45 seconds.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
I have a good friend who's an orioles fan, and he was talking that the Orioles were looking at BJ for the No. 8 pick.

A steal IMO

He's a solid OF/2 sport guy

princeton
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
I hope we can get a first-hand scouting report on this one from our local correspondent.

At all events, this pick clearly is a gentleman and a scholar.

I've never seen him. I have a daily meeting that conflicts with the games.

still, it seems like a natural Redszone favorite

RBA
06-07-2004, 02:10 PM
Homer Bailey? I was saving that nickname for 'Homer' Graves. ;) Just kidding Danny if you're reading this thread. :thumbup:

MattyHo4Life
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
Syzmanski was the guys several of us on the Cards board were hoping the Cardinals would grab in the 1st round. He's a great pick for a 2nd rounder.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
Syzmanski is a switch hitter as well. Just thought I'd throw that out there.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:11 PM
B.J. hit .362 with 6 HR, 48 RBI, 10 doubles, 8 triples, 21 BB/26 K this year.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
Switch hitter? I'm all for the pick! :)

gm
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
Syzmanski: Fastest rising college prospect for the 2004 Draft. Potential five-tool outfielder with a plus arm and a rare size/speed combo. He's 6-5 and runs the 60 in 6.45 seconds.

princeton, if you don't pick this guy for your "first to show" I'm gonna ;)

MasonBuzz3
06-07-2004, 02:12 PM
what OF position did he play?

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:13 PM
Any names in particular we should be hoping to fall to the third round?

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:13 PM
what OF position did he play?


I would assume CF with that speed, but I don't know for sure.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:13 PM
BJ plowing a defender

CougarQuest
06-07-2004, 02:13 PM
If the guy could add a little height ..... :MandJ:

princeton
06-07-2004, 02:13 PM
I believe we have a pick EVERYONE agrees with!!!!! There is a supreme being, there is a supreme being .... :thumbup:

he's a 5-tool OFer, and if he goes without a BB in his first 100 atbats...

WVRed
06-07-2004, 02:14 PM
Sweet, would love for this to be a Carlos Beltran type player to groom as Jrs replacement or a good trading chip.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:14 PM
Supplemental Round

1 (31) JP Howell Kansas City Royals P Univ. of Texas
(Supplemental pick for loss of Raul Ibanez)
2 (32) Zach Jackson Toronto Blue Jays P Texas A&M University
(Supplemental pick for loss of Kelvin Escobar)
3 (33) Justin Orenduff Los Angeles Dodgers P Virginia Commonwealth University
(Supplemental pick for loss of Paul Quantrill)
4 (34) Tyler Lumsden Chicago White Sox P Clemson University
(Supplemental pick for loss of Bartolo Colon)
5 (35) Matt Fox Minnesota Twins P Stoneman Douglass HS
(Supplemental pick for loss of Eddie Guardado)
6 (36) Danny Putnam Oakland Athletics OF Stanford
(Supplemental pick for loss of Keith Foulke)
7 (37) Jonathan Poterson New York Yankees C Chandler HS
(Supplemental pick for loss of Andy Pettitte)
8 (38) Gio Gonzalez Chicago White Sox P Pace HS
(Supplemental pick for loss of Tom Gordon)
9 (39) Jay Rainville Minnesota Twins P Bishop Hendricken HS
(Supplemental pick for loss of LaTroy Hawkins)
10 (40) Huston Street Oakland Athletics P Texas
(Supplemental pick for loss of Miguel Tejada)
11 (41) Jeff Marquez New York Yankees RHP Sacramento City CC
(Supplemental pick for loss of David Wells)

traderumor
06-07-2004, 02:14 PM
For those like myself who are a little behind the curve, here's a nice article to explain the HS vs. College debate. All I can say, is cross your fingers and hope that we have the exception (Wood or Beckett) rather than the rule. Or to use WOYs analogy, sometimes you get the 4 when you hit on 17. Our guys already said "hit me" so let's hope it's a 4.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2002/pitchers.html

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:15 PM
Daily Princeton Q&A w/ BJ


Recently, 'Prince' senior writer Thad Hartmann sat down with sophomore center fielder B.J. Szymanski for some questions and answers.

'Prince': I guess you're a two-sport star now, right?

Szymanski: Yeah.

P: So how long have you been playing both of them?

S: In college or overall?

P: Both.

S: Well, I've played both of them my whole life — baseball since I was three, tackle football since fourth grade.

P: So which is your favorite?

S: Uh ... I can't decide, pretty much whatever one I'm in at the time. I get pretty caught up emotionally in both of them. I couldn't really decide either way.

P: So have you been playing both of them both years here?

S: No, no, I've just started playing baseball this year.

P: What's the difference between playing center field and playing wide receiver? Are there similarities?

S: There are a lot of similarities in that, when the ball goes up, the ball is mine. In any situation, center field rules the outfield. He can call off anybody he has to. The same things that make a wide receiver good can make a center fielder good — as far as speed, and that's about it. A lot less contact in baseball.

P: What did you think when [former University of Texas and current Miami Dolphins football player] Ricky Williams signed that minor league [baseball] contract after he won the Heisman?

S: You know, that has always kinda been a possibility in the back of my mind — not a possibility but a thought. I don't know if it's necessarily a possibility, but it's always there, but we've got the amateurism rule at Princeton: in the Ivy League you can't play a pro sport and a college sport at the same time.

P: What do the coaches in the two sports think about playing both? Are the football coaches upset?

S: They ... don't act upset, but they want me playing spring ball, which I am going to try my best to make, at least with my head there at all times. I'll try to show up for practices that I can, not necessarily partake in them physically, but learning the stuff, keeping the stuff fresh in my mind. I'm pretty in tune to baseball right now, but I'm still lifting full time with the football team. Either way, I don't think ... they haven't really told me much, they've left me in the dark.

P: You were recruited for football, but when did you decide to start playing baseball here?

S: Well, I thought about it last year, and then this summer, some things went well, and I just decided that I might as well try to play baseball, give it a shot. I figured if when I was fifty years old and I didn't start playing, I'd regret it.

P: What's the difference between the atmospheres in workouts and practices?


Photo by Xochiquetzal Martinez
(Expand Photo)
Sophomore B.J. Szymanski is one of Princeton's few two-sport athletes, a member of both the football and baseball teams.
S: Football is much more in your face, a much more tense atmosphere. In practice, it's you run everywhere, it's hollering and screaming by coaches, hollering and screaming by players, you know, fights breaking out because it's an intense sport, and in order to get better, everybody's gotta go hard. Baseball is much more laid back. Sometimes practices last 45 minutes, sometimes they'll last a couple hours. It's just ... it's not near ... it's compl ... polar opposites from each other. It's a great break from football to come to a very laid back springtime, summer sport.

P: What about the games? Because there are so many more baseball games, is it not quite as urgent a feeling?

S: No, baseball and football in that sense are just a little different, because growing up playing both, you know that on any given day a football player can perform consistently at their level. I can more or less catch the pass almost every time, but I'm not necessarily going to get a hit every time. It's a lot different sense because you face different pitchers, while in football your abilities always stay the same. You're always throwing with the same quarterback. I could go out on any given day and play well at football, but I could go out and play decent baseball, great baseball and poor baseball. It's an up-and-down sport. Football is more consistent as far as results go.

P: How does that play with your confidence, though?

S: Well, if you've played it for a long time, you realize, any competitive person doesn't want to do bad, but you have to learn that in baseball you're going to have your up days and your down days, your good days, your bad days. The good baseball players are the ones who can put the bad days out of their minds.

P: Bubble gum or sunflower seeds? Which is better?

S: I would take a third choice. Uh, sunflower seeds.

P: Sunflower seeds, all right. So which is harder to catch, a baseball or a football?

S: It's easier to catch a baseball because you have a glove and people aren't trying to tackle you. It's harder to catch a football because there are 250-pound linebackers trying to knock your head off.

P: You're a tall guy, so which sport has the bigger advantage to being tall?

S: I would say that in football it's bigger, because as a six-foot, five-inch wide receiver, you're often facing 5-10 or shorter cornerbacks, and in football, there's more of that one-on-one match up. If I can have the height and have equal speed, I've obviously got the advantage over a smaller cornerback. In baseball, size goes well with having leverage in hitting, and it attributes to my speed in the outfield with long legs, but as far as one-on-one match ups, in football it's more of an advantage.

P: Will you play for the 'Prince' Sports IM softball team? I think we might need some help.

S: Ha ha, I actually played slippery softball over the summer, and on our softball team we had six college football players — all of my high school buddies. We were pretty solid on the softball team. It was good times.

P: What was the winter like when you were playing neither sport in season? Was it relaxing or was it kind of empty?

S: The winter? It wasn't empty, because I started spring running with football thinking that maybe I'd be able to juggle both of them. But I found out that full-time football, full-time baseball, full-time school, part-time job was not going to work out. So I had to quit the running because it was an early morning thing, and I just wasn't getting enough sleep or rest; I was overtraining. I kept the full-time lifting as well as four or five days a week baseball for, oh, about an hour a day. So it wasn't empty; it was a little lighter. Because with football in-season you go to meetings; you've got to get there early to get taped; you've got to go to practice; you have after stuff. You're down there four or five hours a day. It wasn't that long, but it wasn't empty. It was a much-needed break.

P: I was just about to ask you if you ever sleep, but I guess you answered that. What's more important to you? Which would you like to do more — a .350 batting average, a thousand receiving yards, or a 4.0?

S: 4.0. I think a thousand yards receiving and a .350 batting average is attainable, as far as athletics because athletics has always come easier to me. A 4.0 is less attainable at Princeton, but that would be the biggest fulfillment for me.

backbencher
06-07-2004, 02:16 PM
I've never seen him. I have a daily meeting that conflicts with the games.

still, it seems like a natural Redszone favorite

Well, he's now my favorite, that's for sure. Let's get Ohlendorf next.

I'm still hoping the Reds can pick up the oft-traded Chris Young.

Here's some info:

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20040524&content_id=751408&vkey=draft2004&fext=.jsp

Edd Roush
06-07-2004, 02:17 PM
If he's a two sport player, does that mean that he would rather play football or will he sign with the Reds without worry?

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:18 PM
Lots of Football photos of BJ out there - few baseball.

At least Dunn will have a reciever to throw to.

traderumor
06-07-2004, 02:18 PM
Maybe if we can't win baseball games, we'd have a heck of a start for a football team with Pena, Dunn, and now BJ

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:19 PM
Ohlendorf's gone I think.

CougarQuest
06-07-2004, 02:19 PM
If he's a two sport player, does that mean that he would rather play football or will he sign with the Reds without worry?
Well if it were any other team besides the Reds, I'd say you'd might have to worry, but the Reds drafted him. :)

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:20 PM
3 (33) Justin Orenduff Los Angeles Dodgers P Virginia Commonwealth University

backbencher
06-07-2004, 02:20 PM
If he's a two sport player, does that mean that he would rather play football or will he sign with the Reds without worry?

Staying in school is a bigger worry. The last Tiger to be drafted in the NFL was taken in 1994, I think.

letsgojunior
06-07-2004, 02:20 PM
I may be slow, but is there a reason that we've been passing up middle infielders? Larkin can't play short until he is 50, and Felipe certainly hasn't done much to qualify himself as the heir apparent. Am I missing a chapter here?

PuffyPig
06-07-2004, 02:22 PM
5. Brewers: Mark Rogers, rhp, Mount Ararat HS, Orr's Island, Maine

The Brewers have rebuilt their farm system from the worst to the best in the game in three short years, thanks mainly to high school draft picks.

Note that the Brewers have rebuilt their farm system in 3 short years with HS players.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:25 PM
Some really good video of Bailey (1 minute plus with the speed of each pitch) here:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/draftday/y2004/tracker_team_cin_1.html

knuckler
06-07-2004, 02:26 PM
OK, so Wagner and LaRue go to lobby Homer Bailey to sign fast and cheap, then Dunn and Gardner put the heat on Szymanski to join the Reds organization. Did I miss anybody?

westofyou
06-07-2004, 02:26 PM
Note that the Brewers have rebuilt their farm system in 3 short years with HS players.

True... and the 1st little pig lived a good life for awhile in that house made of straw.

When they make it to MLB and succeed then they can celebrate their acumen.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:28 PM
1B from Miami Ohio Mike Ferris got drafted by St. Louis in round 2.

M2
06-07-2004, 02:28 PM
The Braves, Marlins, Cubs, and many others have continually "beaten the odds". Maybe the Reds will start it with Bailey.

And maybe they'll discover the secret to cold fusion while they're at it. Maybe they'll discover Mottola, I mean Bailey, has a talent for musical theater. Maybe he'll pet 2.3 more dogs per week than Kurt Stillwell.

I'm not real interested in maybe. I know for a stone-cold fact how long the odds are against Bailey.

And how many pitchers on the Braves staff are HS guys they drafted? One.

Cubs? One.

Marlins? One.

Who's beating the odds?

No one disputes that Mottola, I mean Bailey, has talent. What I'd like explained to me is what makes him different from the scads of other HS pitchers with talent who fail en masse.

Really I don't think you'd hear an ounce of complaint on this board had the Reds selected a college arm or a HS or colelge player. The one thing that was guaranteed to hack off a large group of people was taking a college arm. A HS arm can have all the talent in the world and he'd still be a glaring risk, particularly for an organization with a thin feeder system.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:29 PM
78. REDS
Greg Tatum - Miss. St. (Catcher)

CougarQuest
06-07-2004, 02:29 PM
Over 360 posts on this thread and we are only on round 2

UKFlounder
06-07-2004, 02:30 PM
I may be slow, but is there a reason that we've been passing up middle infielders? Larkin can't play short until he is 50, and Felipe certainly hasn't done much to qualify himself as the heir apparent. Am I missing a chapter here?

Haven't they only made 2 picks so far? Plus, in all the articles leading up to the draft, O'Brien was preaching the "best player available regardless of position" mantra, so maybe they are following that cliche and have taken what they considered the best guys out there?

Clemson
06-07-2004, 02:30 PM
Hey there everyone,
I am thoroughly enjoying our draft so far.

I knew we got a HS pitcher with our first rounder, but I don't know if anyone here has ever seen him pitch, so lets not crucify anyone before we see him pitch a little. Remember Kerry Wood?

Plus to top things off we got a GREAT college bat in the second round, someone who was expected to go in the first so we got good value there. He was often considerred the second best college bat in tghe draft behind Drew.

In the third we just grabbed another college bat in Craig Tatum from Miss St. Plus hes a catcher

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:31 PM
I'm honestly quite glad the Reds could care less what internet fans thing. Sorry M2 but you make it sound like hacking off a huge group of internet fans is going to ruin Reds baseball.

And Maybe just maybe Bailey has more talent than other HS pitchers we have drafted. It's quite possible.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:31 PM
Tatum:
.325, 16 HR, 60 RBI for Miss. St. this year.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:33 PM
Tatum - a 6-0, 220 R-R Catcher from MSU
http://www.mstateathletics.com/0,5604,1_24_0_29099,00.html

SantaClaussen
06-07-2004, 02:33 PM
I like the first 2 picks. I also simply accept that emotions always run very high when the Reds are discussed so the folks wanting to jump off bridges don't really bother me until I hear the splash.

Bailey COULD be Clemens, or Wood, or Prior. He is still skinny as a rail and will gain more velocity, is learning a change and has a good curve and excellent control. This may be Howington, but I am betting not. Excellent, effortless mechanics says a lot. A whole lot. Anyway, this is the year of miracles in Red and for once, our first round HS pick is going to pan out BIG TIME. Besides I want to be around to hear everyone posting how they loved this pick when the kid makes it to the Reds and becomes an ace. Basically, what I am saying without the irony, is the pick is done folks. Quit crying and get behind the kid! Let's hope the new developmental philosophy is working. No major blowouts in the prospects so far this summer unless not pitching as well as we hoped is considered a blowout). I choose to believe Bailey will make it past the odds. Once in a while one of these HS kids do. Let it be Bailey.

BJ was a great 2nd pick - I wanted another arm but he is just to darn good to pass. He should not have been there at 48.

Finally, remember, some of the best players in baseball come from late rounds. It's not like football where your top picks are usually a given. Here it has more to do with the top to bottom quality of your draft and whether you get them signed. Mark that last as my great concern. The Reds have let a few thousand keep them from signing later round picks in the past. Now that is really stupid.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:33 PM
Reds Draft so far:
1st Round - Homer Bailey (HS RHP)
2nd Round - B.J. Szymanski (Princeton OF)
3rd Round - Craig Tatum (Mississippi State Catcher)

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:33 PM
FYI, Scott Lewis, P, Ohio St. went to the Indians one pick ahead of us in the 3rd round. Just listing local products being drafted in case someone knows them or are interested.

Clemson
06-07-2004, 02:34 PM
I could see us getting OF Dexter Fowler if he falls to us in the 4th round, I haven't heard his name called yet and apparently we were liking him a ton. We might not see hima s signable though

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:35 PM
Finally, remember, some of the best players in baseball come from late rounds. It's not like football where your top picks are usually a given. Here it has more to do with the top to bottom quality of your draft and whether you get them signed.

Here here

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:36 PM
Scott Lewis was a big time prospect I think. Hurt his arm though.

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:37 PM
Did Tatum go ahead of Kurt Suzuki (another college catcher)?

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:38 PM
Did Tatum go ahead of Kurt Suzuki (another college catcher)?

I haven't heard Suzuki's name come up yet

SantaClaussen
06-07-2004, 02:38 PM
I like it so far. Big risk HS pitcher with tremendous upside, followed by 2 highly touted College position players. That's gambling and hedging your bets all in one roll of the dice.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:38 PM
That's surprising, Suzuki's one of the best college recievers out there - He'll be gone shortly I'm sure

Ryan the Reds Fan
06-07-2004, 02:38 PM
It is so entertaining to follow what you all have to say. "the organization obviously doesn't care after drafting him" :MandJ: I mean come on. I can understand that people have reservations about a high school guy and I respect that, especially when guys like MS and MWM back up their arguements, but for someone just to throw out with no support that the organization doesn't care, now that is funny.

One other thing I noticed. People talk about Bailey's level of competition in HS, I read in one of the articles it was actually quite good. I think it said he out dueled Ryan Wagner and some other major league prospects. I'll see if I can find it.

SantaClaussen
06-07-2004, 02:39 PM
Size and power is what I think the Reds see in Tatum - some scout was drunk watching him play and thought he saw the ghost of Johnny Bench.

PuffyPig
06-07-2004, 02:40 PM
And how many pitchers on the Braves staff are HS guys they drafted? One.

Cubs? One.

Marlins? One.

Who's beating the odds?



And, other than Prior, name the best pitcher on any of the Braves, Cubs or Florid'as staffs who were drafted out of college by those teams?

Because the list of pitchers on those teams who did not pitch in college (Beckett, Burnett, Pavano, Willis, Penny, Zambrano, Wood, Clement, Maddux, Hampton, etc.) is pretty impressive.

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:41 PM
That Tuiasosopo guy went to Seattle in the 3rd round. They can't seem to decide if he's a shortstop or an outfielder.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 02:41 PM
Size and power is what I think the Reds see in Tatum - some scout was drunk watching him play and thought he saw the ghost of Johnny Bench.


Was he a reach in the 3rd round? I wish I knew more about draft eligible players to know who is good, etc. I usually know the NFL draft well enough to know the first 3-4 rounds. Baseball, I can probably get to the mid-late round 1. After that, they're all names I've never heard of.

M2
06-07-2004, 02:42 PM
I like the Szymanski pick. The Reds need a high ceiling OF. Does he project as a CF or a RF? I'd look it up on BA, but that site is jammed.

Anyone know anything about Tatum? Looks like he might be a value pick (which I don't mind as long as it's value at the right position - e.g. SS, C, 2B).

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 02:42 PM
Suzuki went 67th to the A's

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:42 PM
And maybe they'll discover the secret to cold fusion while they're at it. Maybe they'll discover Mottola, I mean Bailey, has a talent for musical theater. Maybe he'll pet 2.3 more dogs per week than Kurt Stillwell.

I'm not real interested in maybe. I know for a stone-cold fact how long the odds are against Bailey.

And how many pitchers on the Braves staff are HS guys they drafted? One.

Cubs? One.

Marlins? One.

Who's beating the odds?

No one disputes that Mottola, I mean Bailey, has talent. What I'd like explained to me is what makes him different from the scads of other HS pitchers with talent who fail en masse.

Current Cubs rotation: HS pitchers Wood and Maddux, College Prior, Intl Zambrano (who was signed at 17 younger then a HS pitcher).
Current Fish rotation: AJ Burnett HS, Beckett HS, Willis HS, Penny HS. Get the point.
And what on earth does power hitting OF Chad Mottola have to do with a pitcher? I am completely lost on this one. Should we not have drafted Kearns and Dunn because Mottola failed?

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:43 PM
Tatum's stats from this weekend's CWS regionals

Friday v. Texas Tech

0-5, 2k

Saturday v. Texas Tech

2-4, 2R, 3RBI, 1HR

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:44 PM
:MandJ: Suzuki went to the A's in the second round. Moneyball!

Redmachine2003
06-07-2004, 02:46 PM
Boy for a draft deep in college pitching and a team in need of pitching the Reds sure didn't draft college pitching.

Bill
06-07-2004, 02:48 PM
Here's the bit about Syzmanski trying out with the Reds from BA- too bad they did not sign him then and saved the pick. They stuck with him though:

• B.J. Szymanski, of

Szymanski has been one of the biggest revelations in this year's draft class. After spending his freshman year as a starting wide receiver on the Princeton football team, Szymanski took part in a Reds tryout camp and was urged by scouts to give baseball a shot. The 6-foot-5, 215-pound center fielder was an instant hit, batting .330 and earning second team all-Ivy League recognition as a sophomore. He rocketed up the draft charts this spring after he hit a mammoth homer off Old Dominion righthander Justin Verlander in front of about 100 scouts in his first game of the 2004 season. He moved up to first team all-Ivy after batting .378-6-48 in the regular season and leading the Tigers in most offensive categories. Szymanski is a gifted, five-tool athlete with a long-limbed body. He has been clocked in the 60-yard dash at 6.45 seconds and shows loose, graceful actions in the outfield with above-average arm strength. At the plate, he has an upright, slightly open stance and a smooth swing. He's a switch-hitter whose swing is almost a mirror image from both sides of the plate, and he has above-average power potential. Szymanski's swing can get long at times, and he could stand to be more patient at the plate

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:48 PM
I predict a college pitcher next.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 02:48 PM
The Reds are in need of pitching but guys like Nelson, Bong, Belisle, and Claussen are all closer to the majors then the average college pitcher it normally takes 2-3 yrs for them to get to the show. So while we are in need of pitching we have guys in AA/AAA that are more then ready then the players in college that we could have drafted in rounds 2 and 3.

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 02:49 PM
Boy for a draft deep in college pitching and a team in need of pitching the Reds sure didn't draft college pitching.

True, however the Reds are in need of everything really. Encarnacion looks like he's the only player in the system that could make a real impact in the majors during the next couple years. Every other decent position player prospect is in Single a or lower

M2
06-07-2004, 02:49 PM
And, other than Prior, name the best pitcher on any of the Braves, Cubs or Florid'as staffs who were drafted out of college by those teams?

Because the list of pitchers on those teams who did not pitch in college (Beckett, Burnett, Pavano, Willis, Penny, Zambrano, Wood, Clement, Maddux, Hampton, etc.) is pretty impressive.

And they let other teams do the dirty work of drafting them and getting them through the touch-and-go period of their development. I'm fine with that, feel free to trade for 21- and 22-year-old pitchers to your heart's content. THAT is a smart and successful plan. Don't spend millions in signing bonuses at age 18 when no one, and I do mean no one, knows where the kid is going to be in three years.


Current Cubs rotation: HS pitchers Wood and Maddux, College Prior, Intl Zambrano (who was signed at 17 younger then a HS pitcher).
Current Fish rotation: AJ Burnett HS, Beckett HS, Willis HS, Penny HS. Get the point.
And what on earth does power hitting OF Chad Mottola have to do with a pitcher? I am completely lost on this one. Should we not have drafted Kearns and Dunn because Mottola failed?

Yes, but you don't get the point. The point isn't to avoid HS pitchers, it's that it makes a lot more sense to trade for these guys once they mature to, oh, say the age of your average college junior. BTW, here's where they were drafted:

Wood - Round 1
Clement - 3
Maddux - 2
Zambrano - N/A

Beckett - 1
Burnett - 8
Penny - 5
Willis - 8

If the Reds want to start collecting HS arms now that they don't cost so much, that's fine by me.

And the Mottola reference is there because he's the guy they selected in front of Jeter. He had talent too.

redsfaninbsg
06-07-2004, 02:52 PM
Reds just picked Gonzalez.

GriffeyFan
06-07-2004, 02:52 PM
108. REDS
Rafael Gonzalez - (HS RHP)

Doc. Scott
06-07-2004, 02:52 PM
Milwaukee took the last of the Rice pitcher quartet, Baker, two picks before the Reds in the 4th round. I wonder if that was the guy Cincy wanted.

Instead, they get Rafael Gonzalez, a HS RHP out of NYC.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:52 PM
Before I say this, I think that Syzmanski is an excellent pick.

However, this story is hillarious to me, and shows exactly what someone earlier in this thread was talking about in reference to scouts.

The kid hits a bomb off a top prospect, when he's off the radar, and suddenly he's the flavor of the month.

That's the fickle nature of scouts.

It's an interesting revelation. I have no doubts that BJ can hit the hardball - he prob could before the scouts noticed him. But because he did it off a darling, suddenly he's as popular as can be.

Curious indeed.


Here's the bit about Syzmanski trying out with the Reds from BA- too bad they did not sign him then and saved the pick. They stuck with him though:

• B.J. Szymanski, of

Szymanski has been one of the biggest revelations in this year's draft class. After spending his freshman year as a starting wide receiver on the Princeton football team, Szymanski took part in a Reds tryout camp and was urged by scouts to give baseball a shot. The 6-foot-5, 215-pound center fielder was an instant hit, batting .330 and earning second team all-Ivy League recognition as a sophomore. He rocketed up the draft charts this spring after he hit a mammoth homer off Old Dominion righthander Justin Verlander in front of about 100 scouts in his first game of the 2004 season. He moved up to first team all-Ivy after batting .378-6-48 in the regular season and leading the Tigers in most offensive categories. Szymanski is a gifted, five-tool athlete with a long-limbed body. He has been clocked in the 60-yard dash at 6.45 seconds and shows loose, graceful actions in the outfield with above-average arm strength. At the plate, he has an upright, slightly open stance and a smooth swing. He's a switch-hitter whose swing is almost a mirror image from both sides of the plate, and he has above-average power potential. Szymanski's swing can get long at times, and he could stand to be more patient at the plate

REDREAD
06-07-2004, 02:52 PM
.
But in all seriousness is Billy Beane going to disown DePodesta as his friend for taking 2 HS players?

burn him at the stake!! :)

My beef with this pick is that we based up a great SS prospect, but hopefully
it works out.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:54 PM
Hitting a long ball off the 2nd pick of the draft shouldn't help your draft stock?
Intimidation is a key, scouts want to see who steps up against the bigger players. I'm sure he showed plus skills in all other facets also.

MWM
06-07-2004, 02:54 PM
Sorry M2 but you make it sound like hacking off a huge group of internet fans is going to ruin Reds baseball.

Nope. But continuously getting no value from your top pitching picks is a great way to do it, especially when you haven't seen the playoffs in 9 years primarily because of lack of starting pitching. Is there a pick they could have made you wouldn't have liked?


And Maybe just maybe Bailey has more talent than other HS pitchers we have drafted. It's quite possible.
But highly unlikely. Personally, I get no satisfaction out of "possibilities" with very little probability attached to them; and a history about as certain as you can get of doing the same thing with awful results. "It's quite possible" that if I spend half my paycheck playing the lottery that I might win some money. But the odds are much more likely that I end up with nothing.

Alos, no one has denied that as a possibility. Why do people keep saying that? Heck we could have drafted a no name high school pithcer no one had ever heard of and you could say the same thing. Show me one publication that had this guy as a Wood, Beckett type of prospect.

It's not about maybes. It's about maximizing the probability of getting major league value of of your draft picks. The way to minimize that probability is to draft HS power arms.

Raisor
06-07-2004, 02:55 PM
Remember, it took Beane a few years to overhaul the A's drafting philosophy. DePodesta has been on the job for two months in LA and has a big whig Minor league director, he's probably trying to not rock the boat straight out.

It'll take awhile for Paul to get his guys in place and the engine running the way he wants.

Clemson
06-07-2004, 02:55 PM
Gonzalez is supposed to be a rediculous power arm, and I think at one point he left school to try to establish residency in the Dominican Republic (whewre he is from) and just sign instead of having to be drafted

Aronchis
06-07-2004, 02:56 PM
O'brien/Renyolds lied, but also told the truth. They said HS arms was to risky in the first round, but were going to take the BPA on their board. After the surge of College arms,my guess Bailey was number 1 on the list.

I hate drafting HS school pitchers. I don't care if in 4 years Bailey is pitching in the WS, I still don't like taking HS pitchers. It is like when Luke left Yoda(not going to College) to quick and got whipped by Vadar(minor league ball), barely to survive.

Now Bailey has better mechanics on his side which Gruler definitely didn't have. Bad mechanics can put alot of stress on the arm, which is probably the biggest reason why HS pitching bombs. Most have not mastered their mechancial point yet which causes undo stress. I think when the Reds overworked Gruler in 2002 with undeveloped mechanics his arm couldn't handle it and pop, there goes the labrum.

They seem to be going BPA strategy, hope it works :thumbdn:

Bill
06-07-2004, 02:56 PM
I like the Syzmanski pick as well as talent is needed in the OF but he is truly a Bowden pick (along with the 2 HS pitchers)

"Szymanski's swing can get long at times, and he could stand to be more patient at the plate"

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 02:56 PM
I'm surprised they went with another HS arm. Team One Baseball calls him a hard-thrower (naturally).

Cedric
06-07-2004, 02:57 PM
Honestly MWM I might not "like" a pick, but I didn't put the time and effort they did to automatically say they are wrong. And I really do understand your points on maximizing value and limiting risk, the thing is maybe the Reds don't feel Bailey is more a risk than say drafting a high schol MI with arm injury history.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 02:58 PM
Ahh baseball draft strategy being likened to Star Wars. I think I have seen it all this morning.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 03:00 PM
TeamOne baseball says that Rice pitcher Josh Baker is Lance Berkman's brother in law. The Brew Crew drafted Baker, so they'll get to face off a bit down the line.

Clemson
06-07-2004, 03:00 PM
I don't undertsand how a lot of us can judge the picks without ever having seen a lot of these guys play, mostly basing arguments on stats, probabilities, and writer's opinions. Personally I will leave my opinion up to the guys getting paid to judge the talent.

Colorado Red
06-07-2004, 03:01 PM
Pick Team Player School Position B/T Ht Wt DOB Class Video
7 DAVID BAILEY LA GRANGE HS RHP R/R 6'4" 185 1986-05-03 HS 56K | 350K
COMMENT: MEDIUM-LONG FRAME. GOOD BODY. LONG, SLENDER, BUILD. HIGH WAISTED. LONG ARMS. LARGE HANDS. LOOSE, EFFORTLESS ARM. COMFORT ZONE 93-95 W/ LATE SINK. BALL EXPLODES OUT OF HAND. 11/5 CB W/ TIGHT ROTATION, SHARP K ZONE BITE WHEN OUT FRONT. EXCELLENT MOUND PRESENCE. YOUNG RHP W/ EXTREMELY HIGH CEILING. EFFORTLESS POWER ARM W/ PLUS PITCHABILITY.

48 BRANDON SZYMANSKI PRINCETON U CF S/R 6'5" 210 1982-10-01 4YR 56K | 350K
COMMENT: LONG LIMBED. RACE HORSE TYPE BODY. THIN ANKLES. LOOSE, LIVE, GRACEFUL ACTIONS. FULLY MATURED. RESEMBLES JON OLERUD. STRAIGHT UP, SLIGHTLY OPEN STANCE W/ NARROW SPREAD. HARD, LINE DRIVE CONTACT TO ALL FIELDS. TOUGH OUT. GAP PWR. BALL JUMPS. GOOD READS ON FLY BALLS. GLIDES TO BALL. PLAYABLE ARM WILL IMPROVE. FLIES 1ST TO 3RD. FEARLESS. CAN CARRY TEAM. HAS THE MAKINGS OF A 5-TOOL PLYR.

78 CRAIG TATUM MISSISSIPPI ST U C R/R 6'1" 215 1983-03-18 4YR 56K | 350K
COMMENT: LARGE FRAME. STRONG, DURABLE BODY. BIG HANDS & FEET. PROPORTIONED ARMS & LEGS. SIMILAR TO FORMER ML RANDY HUNDLEY. WIDE, STRAIGHT AWAY STANCE. STRENGTH IN SWING TO DRIVE BALL. OCCAISIONAL PWR TO LEFT FIELD. GOOD EXTENTION ON CONTACT. PLUS ARM. GOOD RECEIVING SKILLS. BLOCKS, SHIFTS & CATCHES BALL EASY. GOOD LOOKING CATCHING PROSPECT. TOOLS TO CATCH IN THE BIG LEAGUES.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 03:01 PM
The D-Backs get Ohlendorf.

15 (116) Ross Ohlendorf Arizona Diamondbacks P Princeton Univ.

Ivy League pitcher was thought of as a potential top-two round player early in the season

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 03:01 PM
Ohlendorff lasted til 116...

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 03:02 PM
Baseball America on Tatum


Mississippi State catcher CraigTatum, whom scouts considered better as a pitcher coming out of high school, has developed into one of the nation's best catch-and-throw defenders behind the plate with a well-above-average arm.

jmcclain19
06-07-2004, 03:03 PM
Didn't see this posted on the thread yet either


7. Reds: Homer Bailey, rhp, La Grange (Texas) HS

The undisputed class among the nation's high school crop, Bailey was 12-1, 0.39 on the season with 10 walks and 168 strikeouts in 72 innings. He has the best fastball (92-96 mph), the best righthanded breaking ball (a hard downer curveball), the best command and the most polish among high schoolers in the draft. He still has plenty of room for projection, and Bailey will need to improve his changeup and get stronger, but that's true of almost every prep pitcher.

Bill
06-07-2004, 03:05 PM
Here is the story on Gonzalez BA:

Q: John from Long Island asks:
Who are the best high school pitching prospects from New York for the upcoming draft?

A: Jim Callis: George Washington HS (Bronx) RHP Rafael Gonzalez is the best. He signed out of the Dominican Republic for $200,000 with the Yankees last year, but the deal was voided once it was discovered he was an American citizen and draft eligible. Ineligible for high school ball this spring, he has thrown 93-95 mph pitching for a scout team. The best HS LHP in the state is Westhill's (Syracuse) Pat McAnaney.

Tay
06-07-2004, 03:06 PM
I absolutely love the Bailey pick.

Selecting Szymanski in the second is just icing on the cake.

Boss-Hog
06-07-2004, 03:08 PM
Funny how posters who aren't scouts talk crap.
Since when do you have to be a scout to know what is and isn't a safe investment for a small market team based on loads of historical data?

Clemson
06-07-2004, 03:09 PM
Since when do you have to be a scout to know what is and isn't a safe investment for a small market team based on loads of historical data?

You don't need to be a scout, but what I think he's trying to say is that it isn't fair to judge the talent of the player you are getting without ever seeing him

M2
06-07-2004, 03:10 PM
I'm honestly quite glad the Reds could care less what internet fans thing. Sorry M2 but you make it sound like hacking off a huge group of internet fans is going to ruin Reds baseball.

And Maybe just maybe Bailey has more talent than other HS pitchers we have drafted. It's quite possible.

What's going to ruin Reds baseball is picking kids year after year who don't pan out. Some of us happen to follow this stuff closely enough to know that the Reds have just jumped on a strand mile-high dental floss and demanded the removal of any sort of net.

And what makes Bailey more talented that Gruler or Howington? Both of those guys had talent to spare. I'll say this again. No one's questioning that he's talented, it's a question of whether he'll be one of the few at his current level of advancement to do anything with that talent.

Plus, I keep hearing "maybe." Anyone got something better than a set of crossed fingers on this one. Anyone?

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:11 PM
You are completely wrong if you think you can't say MAYBE about EVERY player in this draft, there are zero sure things.
I agree the data shows some are safer than others, but there is still never a sure thing. DanO and Reynolds must feel Bailey warrants the risk.

Johnny Footstool
06-07-2004, 03:12 PM
Current Cubs rotation: HS pitchers Wood and Maddux, College Prior, Intl Zambrano (who was signed at 17 younger then a HS pitcher).
Current Fish rotation: AJ Burnett HS, Beckett HS, Willis HS, Penny HS. Get the point.

Wood and Beckett were drafted in the first round. The rest were not.

Carlos Zambrano - Signed as a non-drafted free agent by Chicago Cubs

Greg Maddux - Selected by Chicago Cubs in the 2nd round of the free-agent draft.

Brad Penny - Drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 5th round of the 1996 amateur draft.

A.J. Burnett - Drafted by the New York Mets in the 8th round of the 1995 amateur draft.

Dontrelle Willis - Selected by Chicago Cubs in the 8th round of the free-agent draft

And I think the "point" that we should "get" is not that a team should never select a HS pitcher. It's that HS pitchers are extremely risky, and it makes more sense statistically to use a first round pick on a hitter or a college pitcher.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 03:14 PM
From Rotoworld.com:

High school right-hander Homer Bailey was taken seventh by the Reds.

Bailey had a 0.39 ERA and a 168/10 K/BB ratio in 72 innings for La Grange high school in Texas this year. He throws 93-95 mph and has a quality curve. He has nearly as much upside as anyone in the draft. Jun. 7 - 3:09 pm et

From TeamOnebaseball.com:

The Reds have found success in the past with Texas high school players such as Adam Dunn. Bailey might be the nation's best high school arm, but will he prosper in a system that has gobbled up many other pitching prospects?

Bill
06-07-2004, 03:16 PM
Seems makeup is not high on Reynold's list. Rafael seems a bit flighty. from ny post:
ON DIAMOND, PROSPECT'S IN CLASS BY SELF

By DAN MARTIN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN ARM:Despite school struggles that have kept him off field, Rafael Gonzalez is "best prospect in the city, no question," says one major-league scout.Chad Rachman
Email Archives
Print Reprint


May 13, 2004 -- Nearly a dozen scouts crowd behind the fence near home plate at the Parade Grounds in Brooklyn. All are there for the same reason: To see one of the rare appearances by Rafael Gonzalez.
"He's the best prospect in the city, no question about it," said one major-league scout. "He has the talent to be a first-rounder. The only thing that could hurt him is a lack of experience."

While the same could be said of most 18-year-olds, Gonzalez' situation is especially unusual. Despite having spent the last three years at two schools that have a pair of the top baseball programs in the PSAL, the right-hander hasn't thrown a pitch for either one.

"It's always something with him," said George Washington head coach Steve Mandl. "He's not dumb, far from it. He just doesn't work."

Monroe's Mike Turo felt much the same.

"He just wouldn't come to school," Turo said. "You try to get them to listen and understand, but sometimes it doesn't work. It's even more frustrating when you see that with a kid as talented a Rafael."

Gonzalez didn't disappoint last Sunday, when he pitched for the fourth time of the spring for the Metro Cadets, a summer-league team run by former Detroit Tiger scout Buddy Payne.




The 6-foot-2, 210-pound Gonzalez consistently threw in the low-90s and even hit 95. He hopes the scouts have seen enough to make him a high pick.

"I should have done things differently," Gonzalez said. "But school never was important to me."

The Bronx resident started his high school career at Theodore Roosevelt before he transferred briefly to Monroe. He quickly left the Eagles to attend GW, in Washington Heights.

"He was turning things around there," Mandl said. "He would have been able to play, but somebody got a hold of him and took him away."

That someone was former big-leaguer Luis Polonia, who heard about Gonzalez from people in New York and invited the 16-year-old to train at his academy in the Dominican Republic. Gonzalez took two trips there, once in December 2002 for three months and again from March, 2003 until last November.

"I thought I might get signed if I went down there," Gonzalez said. "I almost did, but I got tired of waiting."

In fact, the Yankees were close to offering him a deal, but couldn't hammer out all the details. "That killed him," Mandl said. "He had no shot of being eligible after being away for so long."

Gonzalez is now working on getting his GED, which he needs to get drafted. And even though his time in the Dominican didn't turn out as planned, he said he is glad he went.

"I got to work out with major-leaguers and learn how to train and pitch like them," said Gonzalez, who talked pitching with both Anaheim's Bartolo Colon and Boston's Pedro Martinez. "I asked Pedro if he's ever intimidated and he said no. I want to have the same attitude."

Yet he knows that it has not served him well, sitting at home and not playing for his school.

"I'm just lazy," Gonzalez said. "My parents would get angry, but it wouldn't make me want to go."

Now he goes to nearly all of GW's games and works out with the team. "It's hard to watch, but there's nothing I can do about it," Gonzalez said. "I just want to get drafted and be a pro."

He may get his wish.

"He's got tremendous potential," Payne said. "There's nothing to make up for not having played, but there's no doubt he's got a professional arm. He's got big-league tools."

Current scouts agree.

"He's going to be fine," another scout said. "I wouldn't recommend doing it this way, but you can't get past his talent."

Barbarossa
06-07-2004, 03:16 PM
Second Round prediction for Reds - Ross Ohlendorf, Princeton RHP.

Pauly went to Princeton too of course and went in the second round. I would rather have his teammate (B.J. Szymanski).

I sure hope your right about Ohlendorf. He would be an outstanding second rounder. The Austin paper said he could go anywhere from 20 to 60. Seems like he's a terrific young man. :GAC:

knuckler
06-07-2004, 03:17 PM
What's going to ruin Reds baseball is picking kids year after year who don't pan out.

Hey now, I thought the problem was the fans? :mhcky21:

traderumor
06-07-2004, 03:19 PM
Signature Of His Own
Easy and smooth are not often adjectives used to describe the big flamethrowers the state has produced so many of. The first image of Roger Clemens to pop into your head doesn't often incorporate anything resembling mellow. Even Texas high school product Josh Beckett has taken a liking to a rugged goatee and is known for his signature ripping of his right leg through the air after releasing a pitch.

But Bailey has produced similar results at the high school level with a smooth and fluid motion. His delivery has perfect tempo, and though his body is still awkward, his mechanics look comfortable and aligned, never forced or deliberate.

Still, his delivery and stuff draw comparisons to other pitchers the state has produced. And in an era when high school righthanders are picked apart by scouts looking for a reason not to spend an early-round selection and millions of dollars, Bailey stands up to the scrutiny.

MWM,

This is where the comparisons have been made. I have looked at the numbers, see what everyone is saying, but then you have to look at stories like Wood and Beckett and see that they are trying to draft a #1 stud. And you can go through a lot of pitchers, college, HS, foreign, and spend a lot of money before you find a #1 stud, so they are playing a risky bet, a long shot no matter what if you are hoping to draft and develop that type of pitcher. But then, what are your options to get a #1? Pour $30M -$50M for three years of a proven stud, that could pull his groin or have an achilles tendon go bad in ST, or pay a couple of million in a signing bonus that you hope accrues to a huge investment payoff? The overstatement seems to be that there is little risk if we had taken a college pitcher. Any draft pick is very risky that they will ever see significant contribution at the major league level for your team. The draft game is no different than the investment game--the lower the risk, the lower the reward. Like another poster pointed out, you take the high risk gamble, throw down a couple of million (? honestly I don't know what type of bonus we can expect to pay him), and then hedge our bets with lower risk picks over the course of the draft.

Clemson
06-07-2004, 03:19 PM
I think its rediculous to claim a top 10 picks career as basically over before he ever throws a professional inning. I undertsand people wanted a college arm or a high school bat, but last time I checked the weren't exactly guarentees either to get to the bigs. Now is where a lot of people repsond with the posts about the difference in percentages and that its a lot less likely to fail if its a college arm (mostly people who just got done reading Moneyball and now think they're experts on the draft). I for one would rather take the chance to land a true #1, if thats what our guys had himprojected as, then take a safer pick with less ceiling. The guys is supposed to have the best make up, command, fastball, and breaking ball of all HS pitchers. This is an organization desperate for a number one guy and hopefully thats what we got. The complaining that we didn't go for Townsend because we need a reliever now is rediculous. #1 He might not be ready and #2 thats not the type of guy this organization need slong term

My main point I guess is that I think we should wait and see how he does before we either decide he's a bust or put him int eh hall of fame, we owe both him and the organization that.

Aronchis
06-07-2004, 03:19 PM
Bailey over Nelson will go down in Legend eh?

No surprise the best college pitchers were gobbled up like fire before the Reds could pick. They should have lost another game or two :roll: :roll:

Buckaholic
06-07-2004, 03:20 PM
Gosh, sometimes I wonder how many World Series Championships Billy Beane has brought Oakland. God forbid you do something that contradicts Beane's way of thinking. If his approach was so darned sucessful, why the heck hasn't Oakland done better?

Perhaps Beane's disciples are brainwashed into believing that because Billy Beane's historical data says something is best for the Cincinnati Reds, that it automatically is.

Homer Bailey is not Josh Beckett or Kerry Wood, but he's not Chris Gruler either. For goodness sakes people, he's one of the most talented pitchers in this year's draft. Give him and the new front office a freakin chance. I don't care what "historical data" says, he is his own individual. Just because he's riskier doesn't mean a hill of beans that he cannot be a tremendous pick.

Let's get some sort of grip here. Scouts can be wrong, percentages tend to be correct more times than not... but obviously there's a handful of people on this forum that don't dare sucessfully in life. I don't want "safe" picks. I want difference makers. I'm willing to take the chance that a high school arm may not come to fruition, on the off-chance he becomes Kerry Wood.

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 03:21 PM
Reds get their SS in the 5th round. Paul Janice (sp?)

Hooligan
06-07-2004, 03:24 PM
Does everyone remember the Reds 5th round pick last year, Marc Cornell (Ohio Univ.)? This year for the Bobcats he was 1-2 with a 10+ ERA. I wonder were he will fall after that performance?

CougarQuest
06-07-2004, 03:24 PM
Paul Janish, R/R, Rice University

Clemson
06-07-2004, 03:24 PM
[QUOTE=Buckaholic]Homer Bailey is not Josh Beckett or Kerry Wood, but he's not Chris Gruler either. For goodness sakes people, he's one of the most talented pitchers in this year's draft. QUOTE]

By the way, lets not exactly right off Chris yet. This was a kid who was taken 3rd overall and was showing some serious potential when he had his surgery. Yes the injury is a setback, but Chris is still no more than 20 years old and rehabbing and progressing nicely I am told

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 03:25 PM
Janish is a moneyball pick. I like it.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:26 PM
I've heard that Janish actually has the arm strength equal to the big 4 at Rice. Wonder if he will pitch on this level or not.
And trying to get a underclassmen to sign from Rice isnt' easy.

Redny
06-07-2004, 03:27 PM
Nice post buckaholic, you nailed it :thumbup:

M2
06-07-2004, 03:27 PM
You are completely wrong if you think you can't say MAYBE about EVERY player in this draft, there are zero sure things.
I agree the data shows some are safer than others, but there is still never a sure thing. DanO and Reynolds must feel Bailey warrants the risk.

The difference is I'm only hearing maybe. Had the Reds selected Wade Townshend, I could tell you how he did against top competition. How his stuff has matured. How durable he's been. How his mechanics have been adjusted over the years.

Here's BA's Chris Gruler writeup from 2002 - "He thrived in his final start in front of nine members of the Reds' front office and scouts from several teams in the top 10, pumping 95 mph heat in the seventh inning. He sits in the 91-94 mph range, touching 94-95. He's been as high as 96-97 mph and his two-seamer has good riding life. His best pitch is a 12-to-6 hammer curveball that he spins for strikes, and he's shown a feel for a changeup and an occasional splitter. While his stuff has drawn comparisons to Denham, last year's top prep pitcher in Northern California, Gruler's mechanics are more advanced, and overall he's a more polished product. Scouts also like his mental toughness and makeup. He played on a weak high school team and wasn't fazed when mistakes were made behind him. Rated as a fringe first-rounder last summer when he threw in the high 80s, Gruler won't make it out of the top 10 now, and maybe not the top five."

That's almost an identical writeup to what they've got for Bailey.

I understand there's few sure things life, but HS pitchers are just about the least sure thing you'll find. And I don't think DanO and Reynolds have been issued crystal balls anymore than we have.

MWM
06-07-2004, 03:27 PM
You don't need to be a scout, but what I think he's trying to say is that it isn't fair to judge the talent of the player you are getting without ever seeing him
And to that I say AGAIN, that it's not about the actual player, but the draft philosophy.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:28 PM
Beane will claim he has no philosophy.

princeton
06-07-2004, 03:31 PM
[QUOTE=Buckaholic]Chris is still no more than 20 years old and rehabbing and progressing nicely I am told

Gruler had labrum surgery. He'll never be good, let alone the same

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 03:32 PM
5th round is finished. 6th starts at 3:40

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:32 PM
Dexter Fowler been picked yet?

princeton
06-07-2004, 03:32 PM
Janish is a moneyball pick.

except that he doesn't seem to hit much and doesn't seem to walk much

MWM
06-07-2004, 03:33 PM
I think its rediculous to claim a top 10 picks career as basically over before he ever throws a professional inning.
Show me where someone said that?

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 03:34 PM
except that he doesn't seem to hit much and doesn't seem to walk much


Sounds just like Felipe Lopez! :mhcky21:

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:34 PM
Calling him Mottola might be considered that.

Johnny Footstool
06-07-2004, 03:34 PM
Gosh, sometimes I wonder how many World Series Championships Billy Beane has brought Oakland. God forbid you do something that contradicts Beane's way of thinking. If his approach was so darned sucessful, why the heck hasn't Oakland done better?

Yeah, Oakland has been TERRIBLE under Beane's regime.

:lol: :roll: :lol: :roll:

Thanks for the laugh!

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 03:34 PM
except that he doesn't seem to hit much and doesn't seem to walk much

More walks than strikeouts in 2004 though.

traderumor
06-07-2004, 03:35 PM
Look, folks, O'Brien and his sidekick made it very clear in their draft talks that they were gonna go BPA regardless of their status as HS or college player. That is apparently how they rated and they put Bailey ahead of some others. For those crying for consistency from this FO, there is one for that. And I thought that folks overreacted to the Bengals' picks this year :mhcky21:

Aronchis
06-07-2004, 03:35 PM
Gruler had labrum surgery. He'll never be good, let alone the same

or he may be better. Don't box yourself into a corner.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:36 PM
Not after Labrum surgery, I can't recall one pitcher coming off that better than before.

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 03:36 PM
Actually, Janish hit .345/.428/.545. that seems like a pretty good line

Bill
06-07-2004, 03:37 PM
Not crazy about the Janish pick-to slide him to pitcher seems a project at 5th.


John Manuel: I'm a big Janish fan; he's got good hands, pretty solid footwork and an amazing arm. The bat, as I have alluded to previously, is the question. I'd expect him to hit better than .300 this year, but at the same time he's going to have to show some power and strength, I think, to avoid a move. I understand he looks bigger and stronger this year; if scouts think he can be an average big league hitter, he could stay at short. It's hard to find guys who can play that position defensively, and he certainly can.

Puffy
06-07-2004, 03:37 PM
Hey Princeton,

Gammons, I believe it was Gammons or Rosenthal, reported today that Meche is hitting 94-98 on the guns. Do you think he might finally be the one to overcome labrum surgery and get back to his former self? Or do you think that the throwing session was a "one-time" thing - that is to say that he might be able to get it up there like that once or twice, but it won't retain the speed the more he works?

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 03:37 PM
And to that I say AGAIN, that it's not about the actual player, but the draft philosophy.

So future baseball GM what is the correct philopshy? Since obviously taking the best player available is not the way to go what do you say is the way?? Please grand master show me the light!!!

Raisor
06-07-2004, 03:38 PM
Yeah, Oakland has been TERRIBLE under Beane's regime.

:lol: :roll: :lol: :roll:

Thanks for the laugh!


yeah, four straight playoff appearances while spending 156-mil TOTAL in four years in a division with a team in the top three of revenue.
The guy sucks.


:mhcky21:

Crash Davis
06-07-2004, 03:38 PM
or he may be better. Don't box yourself into a corner.


He had labrum surgery, not Tommy John. Who's been successful in coming back from labrum surgery?

So it's not impossible, but Gruler would be breaking new ground.

Clemson
06-07-2004, 03:38 PM
The pessimism right now is downright absurd. I hope you all have a great day, I am done posting in this thread as every other post is a doomsday one. You can't judge a draft during that day, it takes years. Hopefully this one works out. Thats all you can ever hope for.

princeton
06-07-2004, 03:40 PM
Hey Princeton,

Gammons, I believe it was Gammons or Rosenthal, reported today that Meche is hitting 94-98 on the guns. Do you think he might finally be the one to overcome labrum surgery and get back to his former self? Or do you think that the throwing session was a "one-time" thing - that is to say that he might be able to get it up there like that once or twice, but it won't retain the speed the more he works?

it bears watching, but haven't others gotten their velocity back and still pitched poorly or else wound up back on the table?

Carter
06-07-2004, 03:40 PM
Did Rafael Gonzalez claim he could throw a knuckle pitch?

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:41 PM
I guess he throws a knuckle curve.

M2
06-07-2004, 03:41 PM
Gosh, sometimes I wonder how many World Series Championships Billy Beane has brought Oakland. God forbid you do something that contradicts Beane's way of thinking. If his approach was so darned sucessful, why the heck hasn't Oakland done better?

Perhaps Beane's disciples are brainwashed into believing that because Billy Beane's historical data says something is best for the Cincinnati Reds, that it automatically is.

Homer Bailey is not Josh Beckett or Kerry Wood, but he's not Chris Gruler either. For goodness sakes people, he's one of the most talented pitchers in this year's draft. Give him and the new front office a freakin chance. I don't care what "historical data" says, he is his own individual. Just because he's riskier doesn't mean a hill of beans that he cannot be a tremendous pick.

Let's get some sort of grip here. Scouts can be wrong, percentages tend to be correct more times than not... but obviously there's a handful of people on this forum that don't dare sucessfully in life. I don't want "safe" picks. I want difference makers. I'm willing to take the chance that a high school arm may not come to fruition, on the off-chance he becomes Kerry Wood.


A) Beane's A's won gobs more than the Reds have the past five years.

B) The data is what it is. Beane didn't invent it. He's just smart enough not to ignore it while running an organization that needs value engineering.

C) Chris Gruler was one of the most talented pitchers in the 2002 draft with a nearly identical set of skills. So why is Bailey different?

D) "Homer Bailey is not Josh Beckett or Kerry Wood." Then I think it's mistake to burn a high pick and millions of dollars on him.

E) "Grip" would necessitate understanding the general chances for success of a kid like Bailey and what to expect from the alternatives. My "grip" informs me that Bailey's chances are exceptionally low and that his ceiling's no higher than some college arms who were on the board.

F) The Reds have spent years taking undue chances in the draft and they've got a paper-thin farm system to show for it. As a Reds fan, I'd like to see the new regime chuck the old standard operating procedure for something more fruitful.

SYCMiniBus
06-07-2004, 03:42 PM
The Twins who seem to have the same strategy as the Reds (best player regardless of HS or college) have also made the playoffs consistantly and unlike the A's have actually won a series.

Puffy
06-07-2004, 03:44 PM
it bears watching, but haven't others gotten their velocity back and still pitched poorly or else wound up back on the table?

I don't know if anyone has gotten their velocity back - I do know that a good deal of them have ended up back on the operating table though.

But I sure don't remember any of them coming this close to 100 again - and I think your right, it does bear watching, but it sure ain't a sure thing. I have more faith in Meche coming back after seeing this than I do in Gruler though - if only because he is hitting high nineties again

MWM
06-07-2004, 03:44 PM
MWM,

This is where the comparisons have been made. I have looked at the numbers, see what everyone is saying, but then you have to look at stories like Wood and Beckett and see that they are trying to draft a #1 stud. And you can go through a lot of pitchers, college, HS, foreign, and spend a lot of money before you find a #1 stud, so they are playing a risky bet, a long shot no matter what if you are hoping to draft and develop that type of pitcher. But then, what are your options to get a #1? Pour $30M -$50M for three years of a proven stud, that could pull his groin or have an achilles tendon go bad in ST, or pay a couple of million in a signing bonus that you hope accrues to a huge investment payoff? The overstatement seems to be that there is little risk if we had taken a college pitcher. Any draft pick is very risky that they will ever see significant contribution at the major league level for your team. The draft game is no different than the investment game--the lower the risk, the lower the reward. Like another poster pointed out, you take the high risk gamble, throw down a couple of million (? honestly I don't know what type of bonus we can expect to pay him), and then hedge our bets with lower risk picks over the course of the draft.

TR,

I don't think we really disagree all that much. No one has ever even attempted to say that there is little risk in drafting college pitchers. I know I've never even thought that. That's an argument that's gets projected onto those of us who prefer less risky choices.

At least you recognize that what the Reds have done is take a very high risk gamble when lower risk gambles were available for the taking. If you, or anyone else, recognize that and are fine with that, then we just agree to disagree. But at least we both understand things the same way.

But let's at least agree that the Reds had the choice to make a pick with much less risk associated with it and chose the much riskier route. In some instances I wouldn't argue quite as much, such as if this player is said to be a special talent. You know, the types that don't come along very often. By all accounts, Bailey is not that guy. His mechanics and stuff were compared to Wood and Beckett in the blurb you mentioned above, but the author wasn't exactly comparing their potentials. When wood and Beckett were coming out of the draft, it was very widely published just about everywhere you looked that these guys were rare talents. Bailey hasn't been mentioned in that light. The best that's been said about the guy is that he's the best HS arm available *in this draft*, which has been called a pretty weak draft as far as HS piching.

Now, it's time to root like hell for the guy to develop into a perrenial Cy Young Candidate and 20 game winner. :GAC:

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 03:44 PM
Am I mistaken, or did someone say Janish may be moved to pitcher? Trevor Hoffman did it, but that would be rare (college SS to pitcher).

weasel
06-07-2004, 03:45 PM
Labrum, It Nearly Killed Him
Why the torn labrum is baseball's most fearsome injury.
By Will Carroll
Posted Thursday, May 20, 2004, at 2:02 PM PT



Nen: sidelined by a bum shoulder

The San Francisco Giants' Robb Nen, one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, had off-season surgery in 2002 to "clean up loose particles" in his shoulder. What Nen didn't know is that he had a torn labrum, the fearsome modern baseball injury that strikes down pitchers quickly, stealthily, and painfully. Eighteen months and three surgeries later, Nen is still waiting to throw his next major-league pitch. The leading minds in baseball medicine are flummoxed by the labrum. Doctors can't agree on how to detect a tear, don't know the best way to fix one, and aren't sure why, almost without fail, a torn labrum will destroy a pitcher's career.

Leading baseball surgeon Dr. James Andrews estimates that 85 percent of pitchers make a full recovery after an ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, aka the once risky Tommy John surgery. (USA Today has even called the surgery the "pitcher's best friend.") But if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle. More likely, he'll turn into Mike Harkey, Robert Person, or Jim Parque, pitchers who lost stamina and velocity—and a major-league career—when their labrums began to fray.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:46 PM
Janish has a great arm from what I hear, he's pitched before but I dont know how much.

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 03:46 PM
Reds take "someone" Roa, C, from the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

Carter
06-07-2004, 03:46 PM
Having a knuckle curve, and his velocity as a pitcher could make Gonzalez a very interesting pitcher to watch these next few seasons. If Ambroles can ever make it back, we could have ourselves a great duo, in the rotation or the pen.

princeton
06-07-2004, 03:47 PM
Am I mistaken, or did someone say Janish may be moved to pitcher? Trevor Hoffman did it, but that would be rare (college SS to pitcher).

again, the Reds are drafting tools, not performance. It worked throughout the '80's, but we had legendary scouts in the '80's.

Raisor
06-07-2004, 03:47 PM
The Twins who seem to have the same strategy as the Reds (best player regardless of HS or college) have also made the playoffs consistantly and unlike the A's have actually won a series.



The A's have made it four years in a row while playing in a much tougher division then the Twins, who've made it twice.

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 03:47 PM
I don't know about Janish. He hit .345, with a .200 ISO and had more walks than strikeouts. If he can play SS, leave him at SS. He might already be able to outhit Ray Olmedo.

Aronchis
06-07-2004, 03:49 PM
The A's have made it four years in a row while playing in a much tougher division then the Twins, who've made it twice.

and the A's lost to the Twins in the playoffs, that is all that matters.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:49 PM
And when they went head to head the Twins won. But unlike every other stat known to man, wins and losses in the playoffs aren't indicitive of who built a better team.

princeton
06-07-2004, 03:50 PM
"Wants to hit"

If only it were as simple as that

MWM
06-07-2004, 03:50 PM
So future baseball GM what is the correct philopshy? Since obviously taking the best player available is not the way to go what do you say is the way?? Please grand master show me the light!!!

I've tried but you refuse to see it. You still haven't answered the idea that you are locked into liking every move made by this organization and coaching staff because they are in the business.

I never said taking the best player available wasn't a good philosophy. Show me where I said that?

What do I say is the way? In the first round when you're going to be paying out a hefty bonus (which seems to be the part you're missing), choose the players most likely to give you value at the major league level equal to the money they will command. My way is to not take the riskiest gamble possible and pay them several million dollars when they will MOST LIKELY not make it to the majors, let alone as a big-time player.

What's your way?

And calling me grand master is highly inappropriate. Do you know what a grand master is?

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 03:51 PM
I know catcher is a weak position in the organization, but I'm not sure I follow using two picks in the first six rounds on that position.

Ryan the Reds Fan
06-07-2004, 03:52 PM
The way I see it, this is a marathon, not a sprint. We won't know the success of this draft for 3-5 years at a minimum. I'm willing to give Dan O a chance. This isn't completely the same group that has drafted the busts of the past. I'm willing to wait and see, and take a risk on a potential Ace with a lot of upside high schooler in the first. Time will tell.

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:52 PM
Grand Master means you are at the top of your chosen endeavor. It's used for many different things.
You can be a grand master Mason, chess player, rapper :) (flash), about anything.

Boss-Hog
06-07-2004, 03:52 PM
I wish him nothing but the best but these are the exact same things I heard about Ty Howington at age 20 (and still do now by a few people)...


[QUOTE=Buckaholic]Homer Bailey is not Josh Beckett or Kerry Wood, but he's not Chris Gruler either. For goodness sakes people, he's one of the most talented pitchers in this year's draft. QUOTE]

By the way, lets not exactly right off Chris yet. This was a kid who was taken 3rd overall and was showing some serious potential when he had his surgery. Yes the injury is a setback, but Chris is still no more than 20 years old and rehabbing and progressing nicely I am told

MasonBuzz3
06-07-2004, 03:53 PM
Im guessing the C was Lonny Roa from PR.
COMMENT: LARGE FRAME. SOLID, DURABLE BUILD. STRONG FROM TOP DOWN. MUSCULAR CHEST. STRENGTH IN LEGS. HIGH REAR. BIG, STRONG HANDS. WIDE, CLOSED STANCE. SETS UP DEEP TO HIT. SHORT STRIDE. SLIGHT UPPERCUT SWING W/PWR TO HIT BALL OVER THE FENCE. AGGRESSIVE BAT, WANTS TO HIT. BALL JUMPS OFF BAT. ADEQUATE RECEIVER. BLOCKS BALL IN DIRT. COURAGE ON PLAYS AT PLATE. LEADERSHIP QUALITIES. EXPERIENCE AT 1B & OF. from mlb.com

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 03:54 PM
Man, I love the baseball draft. It's at the end of the 6th round in under 3 hours. WE'd be on pick 15 of the first round of the NFL draft in that time fram :MandJ:

Boss-Hog
06-07-2004, 03:55 PM
Knock off the insults - I see plenty of people debating with you, but no one insulting you as you just did.


So future baseball GM what is the correct philopshy? Since obviously taking the best player available is not the way to go what do you say is the way?? Please grand master show me the light!!!

MWM
06-07-2004, 03:55 PM
and the A's lost to the Twins in the playoffs, that is all that matters.

Just so I have this correct, you're making the argument that the Twins have been more successful thatn the A's based on their single playoff series win, which was decided in the 5th game. Is that right? So you would rather Terry Ryan as GM than Billy beane based on htat one game? Am I reading you correctly. This is what you believe?

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:57 PM
Honestly you can't say the A's are that much better a franchise than the Twins right now.

M2
06-07-2004, 03:57 PM
Having a knuckle curve, and his velocity as a pitcher could make Gonzalez a very interesting pitcher to watch these next few seasons.

I like the Gonzalez pick too. Good talent, reasonable price. High ceiling.

BTW, I forget who asked, but it does indeed look like Dester Fowler is still on the board. If it's signability that's making him drop, I'd snag him soon and try to sell him on second round money. The Reds have what should be a bargain draft at the moment.

RedLegsToday
06-07-2004, 03:57 PM
Felipe Valesquez(spelling?) from Montreal

Cedric
06-07-2004, 03:58 PM
Thanks M2, I was the one wondering about Fowler.

princeton
06-07-2004, 03:58 PM
Just so I have this correct, you're making the argument that the Twins have been more successful thatn the A's based on their single playoff series win, which was decided in the 5th game. Is that right? So you would rather Terry Ryan as GM than Billy beane based on htat one game? Am I reading you correctly. This is what you believe?

Both are terrific, and Ryan's up on Beane right now partly due to his series win and partly because he saved an entire franchise that was destined to be flushed. Yes, that's what I believe

MasonBuzz3
06-07-2004, 03:59 PM
Phillippe Valiquette -LHP Canada with the 7th rounder
COMMENT: MEDIUM-LARGE FRAME. SLENDER, ATHLETIC BUILD. SLOPED SHOULDERS. HIGH WAIST. FLAT CHEST. LONG ARMS, LEGS. DEFINED THIGHS. ROOM FOR ADDED DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR TO JARROD WASHBURN. NO WINDUP DELIVERY, 3/4 RELEASE. LOOSE, FLUID ARM. EXCELLENT ACTION. BALL JUMPS FROM HAND. FB LATE TAIL & SINK, MOST 91 EARLY. 3/4 ROTATION CB, OCCAISIONAL LATE BITE. STRAIGHT CHANGEUP TAILS, KEEPS ARM SPEED. GOOD EXTENTION OVER FRONT SIDE. PROJECTABLE BODY. LHP W/ QUICK, LIVE ARM. GOOD DELIVERY. WILL HAVE 3 QUALITY PITCHES. MATURITY & EXPERIENCE WILL HELP PITCHABILITY. FUTURE LHS AT MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL.

Red Leader
06-07-2004, 03:59 PM
The Cards took a guy in the 5th round that has a great baseball name:

Wes Swackhammer, an OF from Tulane.

NC Reds
06-07-2004, 04:00 PM
You know the Expos are moving when they allow a Quebec guy to slip through seven rounds.

gm
06-07-2004, 04:02 PM
As you wish. If he takes Homer Bailey, he will NOT be Terry Reynolds. He ran a lot of drafts but never took a HS pitcher with the first pick


What's gotten into Terry this year? So far, he's scooping up HS pitchers (and position players) and leaving the college arms on the board.

princeton
06-07-2004, 04:04 PM
either he was due, gm or he's trying out a reverse Costanza. I'm hoping for the latter

MWM
06-07-2004, 04:04 PM
The pessimism right now is downright absurd. I hope you all have a great day, I am done posting in this thread as every other post is a doomsday one. You can't judge a draft during that day, it takes years. Hopefully this one works out. Thats all you can ever hope for.

I'm sorry for the pessimism. I don't believe that being a fan requires liking every move they make. If being pessimistic means that I question a drafting philosophy that hasn't worked for just about anyone over the past several decades, then I'm sorry I'm a pessimist. If being a pessimist means I want the team to change the way they do things that has resulted in not developing a single starting pitcher in 15 years, then I'm guilt on all counts. I plan on being around RedsZone for a long time.

Believe me, I don't WANT to be pessimistic. I would love nothing more than to be optimistic (like I was after last year's draft) about the draft. But I don't think it's fair to call people *absurd* because they don't agree with the drafting philosophy of current management. It's a reasonable opinion and one shared by many people who have spent a lot of time over the years studying this stuff.

Aronchis
06-07-2004, 04:04 PM
Maybe the Dodgers success with high school talent recently has turned minds :confused: